Religion and Ethics Forum

General Category => Politics & Current Affairs => Topic started by: Nearly Sane on February 03, 2020, 01:29:46 PM

Title: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 03, 2020, 01:29:46 PM
Despite me flashing back to the opening credits of the 1975 version of Survivors a lot recently, it's not clear quite how dangerous coronavirus is.

After following the travel news to Hong Kong because of the protests, I'm now looking for the affects of the disease

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51353279
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on February 03, 2020, 02:48:32 PM
Despite me flashing back to the opening credits of the 1975 version of Survivors a lot recently, it's not clear quite how dangerous coronavirus is.

After following the travel news to Hong Kong because of the protests, I'm now looking for the affects of the disease

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51353279

I flew back in to Heathrow on Friday. I saw a number of Asians in the baggage hall. Every single one of them was wearing one of those surgical masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 03, 2020, 03:00:13 PM
I flew back in to Heathrow on Friday. I saw a number of Asians in the baggage hall. Every single one of them was wearing one of those surgical masks.
Lots of Asians in Glasgow wearing them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on February 03, 2020, 03:09:03 PM
Bizarrely a taxi driver in Littlehampton wearing one on Saturday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on February 03, 2020, 04:04:14 PM
At this rate we'll all end up in burqas!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on February 03, 2020, 05:08:50 PM
At this rate we'll all end up in burqas!

Just in case anybody isn't aware of this but, when you see people wearing those masks in Japan, it doesn't mean they are concerned about catching colds etc from other people but they are protecting you from catching things off them. It's the opposite of a burqa which men make women wear to stop them (the men) from getting lustful thoughts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on February 03, 2020, 05:10:25 PM
I'd like to wear a burqa sometimes. I could do all sorts of things and no one would know who I am, my imagination is working overtime at the thought.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on February 03, 2020, 05:12:05 PM
But surely Brexit will stop burqua wearing?  If we can't be white and poor, what is the point?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on February 03, 2020, 06:50:46 PM
Just in case anybody isn't aware of this but, when you see people wearing those masks in Japan, it doesn't mean they are concerned about catching colds etc from other people but they are protecting you from catching things off them. It's the opposite of a burqa which men make women wear to stop them (the men) from getting lustful thoughts.

mmm.. I never really got that, as the sexy veiled lady is a common archetype.

A surgical mask fetish must be much rarer, and the mask more off-putting for everyone else?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on February 03, 2020, 06:56:10 PM
But surely Brexit will stop burqua wearing?  If we can't be white and poor, what is the point?

Maybe the Saudis will take over broken Britain ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 04, 2020, 07:27:30 PM

Of course.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/01/30/coronavirus-is-not-the-corona-beer-virus-what-people-are-googling/


Anyway suspect that I will not be in Hong Kong and Borneo on a couple of weeks given the latest reduction of flights to HK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on February 07, 2020, 11:41:42 AM

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51409801

Information emerging about the discovery of the new virus and the doctor that flagged it.

I had been wondering how they seemed to have quickly identified it as new disease, recognised its severity and attempted to stop it spreading... but that is not the case.

The doctor, Li Wenliang, 34, who first tried to warn about the virus has died following infection. Chinese authorities tried to suppress information about it. Possibly more could have been done, at an early stage, to stop it spreading?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on February 07, 2020, 02:20:09 PM
Hindsight.
It's an awful illness by the sound of it, so many dead.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on February 07, 2020, 05:10:01 PM

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-does-the-new-coronavirus-compare-with-the-flu/

Nice article comparing new virus with seasonal flu - gives some perspective on risks and relative danger.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 10, 2020, 03:32:36 PM
Brighton GP practice shut


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51447761
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on February 10, 2020, 10:59:53 PM
Despite me flashing back to the opening credits of the 1975 version of Survivors a lot recently, it's not clear quite how dangerous coronavirus is.

After following the travel news to Hong Kong because of the protests, I'm now looking for the affects of the disease

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51353279
Not very. It's quite virulent, but the death rate is low.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 10, 2020, 11:34:18 PM
Not very. It's quite virulent, but the death rate is low.
Non sequitur
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on February 12, 2020, 08:23:49 AM
Non sequitur
Why is it a non-sequitur? You asked how dangerous it was, and I answered. I do wish you'd drop the obsessive fallacy-hunting - it pisses people (well, me, anyway) right off.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 24, 2020, 01:46:35 PM
The virus it is close to becoming a pandemic according to the lunchtime news, however whether it is anymore dangerous than flu, which kills a lot of people each year is not clear, but I suspect it isn't anymore deadly.

For a couple of years or so now, whenever I have been out and about mixing with other people I not only put the anti bac hand gel on my hands, I also put a tiny bit in each nostril. Whether it is a coincidence or not, I haven't had a cold since I have been doing that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on February 24, 2020, 10:58:15 PM
Quote
For a couple of years or so now, whenever I have been out and about mixing with other people I not only put the anti bac hand gel on my hands, I also put a tiny bit in each nostril. Whether it is a coincidence or not, I haven't had a cold since I have been doing that.

It may well be helping, but also your age my dear  :P

Quote
Each time your body is exposed to a virus, it develops antibodies that make you immune to that virus in the future, so the older you get, the more likely it is that you'll be immune to some of the estimated 200 cold viruses in circulation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on February 25, 2020, 07:36:25 AM

For a couple of years or so now, whenever I have been out and about mixing with other people I not only put the anti bac hand gel on my hands, I also put a tiny bit in each nostril. Whether it is a coincidence or not, I haven't had a cold since I have been doing that.
Viruses and bacteria being completely different, I'm not sure it'd help, though possibly it zaps viruses as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on February 25, 2020, 10:58:16 AM
Viruses and bacteria being completely different, I'm not sure it'd help, though possibly it zaps viruses as well.

Dettol. There's a wipe for that 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 25, 2020, 12:14:32 PM
Today I was due to be flying from Hong Kong to Borneo. I dod look at some alternatives when it became necessary to cancel; one of them was Tenerife.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on February 25, 2020, 02:21:12 PM
Iranian deputy health minister has the virus, and the Guardian is reporting its spread in Iran.   I suppose the fear is of a country with a worse health system than China having many cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on February 25, 2020, 03:31:15 PM
Today I was due to be flying from Hong Kong to Borneo. I dod look at some alternatives when it became necessary to cancel; one of them was Tenerife.

If it stops people travelling - isn't that a good thing? The wider it spreads the higher the risk of it mutating to a more dangerous variety.

Anyway, once we have stopped it by isolation and vaccination or medication, or it has spread everywhere, we can get back to the job of filling the atmosphere with CO2. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on February 25, 2020, 04:19:18 PM
Today I was due to be flying from Hong Kong to Borneo. I dod look at some alternatives when it became necessary to cancel; one of them was Tenerife.
I know a place in Tenerife where you can get some decent fish n' chips  ;)

have a safe trip pal x
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 25, 2020, 05:01:22 PM
I know a place in Tenerife where you can get some decent fish n' chips  ;)

have a safe trip pal x
Oh, I didn't book it. It was just the spread of Covid 19 to there that made me see it as a little ironic. I had 2 nights in Muthill at the weekend instead of Hong Kong and Borneo. Looking to sort out something later in the year now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on February 25, 2020, 10:51:04 PM
If it stops people travelling - isn't that a good thing? The wider it spreads the higher the risk of it mutating to a more dangerous variety.


It'll probably mutate into a less dangerous variety. From an evolutionary pov, a sucessful virus will not kill its host, nor make the host so ill that they isolate themself, but just give them a cough and cold, so that they can spread the virus by droplets. A disease like that in 'Survivors', which rapidly kills nearly all the world's population, would be very unsuccessful evolutionariy, as it would soon run out of hosts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 26, 2020, 10:26:35 AM
A few minutes ago a message popped up on my screen stating that there is malware virus giving alarming misinformation about the corona virus. He anyone else seen that message?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on February 26, 2020, 11:05:10 AM
It'll probably mutate into a less dangerous variety. From an evolutionary pov, a sucessful virus will not kill its host, nor make the host so ill that they isolate themself, but just give them a cough and cold, so that they can spread the virus by droplets. A disease like that in 'Survivors', which rapidly kills nearly all the world's population, would be very unsuccessful evolutionariy, as it would soon run out of hosts.

True, but still best to try and isolate it, evaluate then eliminate as close to source as possible, rather than let it spread. Probably too late for this one.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on February 26, 2020, 11:10:30 AM
A few minutes ago a message popped up on my screen stating that there is malware virus giving alarming misinformation about the corona virus. He anyone else seen that message?

What caused the message to pop up?

Hackers are using the coronavirus scare to spread malware - be careful of clicking on links claiming to provide information but downloading or installing computer viruses.

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 26, 2020, 11:23:09 AM
What caused the message to pop up?

Hackers are using the coronavirus scare to spread malware - be careful of clicking on links claiming to provide information but downloading or installing computer viruses.

 

I never press a link if I am unsure of its veracity, I didn't have to press a link for this one it was a warning from one of my virus protection sites.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on February 26, 2020, 01:11:30 PM
I never press a link if I am unsure of its veracity, I didn't have to press a link for this one it was a warning from one of my virus protection sites.
Lr

was it one of your corona virus protection sites ? ???
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 26, 2020, 04:43:38 PM

This is surely just the start of a number of postponements. I expect  that the Champions League will soon be impacted.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51641149
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 28, 2020, 11:32:02 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51673068

There are three more reported cases of the virus, including one here in Wales, bringing the total so far to 19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on February 28, 2020, 12:04:23 PM
Statistics:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on February 28, 2020, 12:41:32 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51673068

There are three more reported cases of the virus, including one here in Wales, bringing the total so far to 19.
I bet more people than that die in car accidents, but we don't have a national panic about that
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 28, 2020, 02:22:52 PM
The first British person has died of the virus, they were on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on February 29, 2020, 10:38:27 AM
Someone, a medical person, on the radio was saying that most flu epidemics 'settle' when spring and summer arrive. He thought that would be the case with coronavirus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on February 29, 2020, 10:41:01 AM
Someone, a medical person, on the radio was saying that most flu epidemics 'settle' when spring and summer arrive. He thought that would be the case with coronavirus.

That is what they seem to be hoping for, although another medical expert did sound a note of caution in that there is no guarantee that Covid-19 will behave in the same way as seasonal flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 29, 2020, 05:25:08 PM
How to take on coronavirus

https://newsthump.com/2020/02/28/glaswegian-scientists-discover-key-way-of-fighting-coronavirus-is-to-kick-its-fckin-cnt-in/?fbclid=IwAR2pj1Nx0Kch0_y2TJtopWbKt-eB1x325S-Tpbf1mQr9QPjOAbKRRRlX3zM
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on February 29, 2020, 07:30:38 PM
That is what they seem to be hoping for, although another medical expert did sound a note of caution in that there is no guarantee that Covid-19 will behave in the same way as seasonal flu.

Seasonal flu is more likely to be seasonal cold(s). Fewer people have had influenza than think they have.

A lot of viruses are very vulnerable to ultraviolet light which is one reason why they tend to be associated with the winer months. If coronavirus is one of these, we might expect the epidemic to fizzle out a bit as spring arrives, except it won't be spring everywhere on Earth.

By the way, the mortality rate from coronavirus is estimated at around 2% which is a bit higher than flu but much lower than ebola. It's my opinion that more people are going to die as a result of the inevitable economic downturn than directly from the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on February 29, 2020, 09:50:42 PM
...
By the way, the mortality rate from coronavirus is estimated at around 2% which is a bit higher than flu but much lower than ebola. It's my opinion that more people are going to die as a result of the inevitable economic downturn than directly from the virus.

It depends on how many people catch it - given that we are unlikely to have a vaccine or remedy for about a year. It is much more contagious than normal flu. If it spreads freely (ie people give up self-isolating and there are no travel/meeting restrictions) - then assume 60% of the population catch it, and a mortality rate of 1.5% :   66m x 0.6 x 0.015 = 594k ie. around half a million people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 01, 2020, 01:14:26 PM
It depends on how many people catch it - given that we are unlikely to have a vaccine or remedy for about a year. It is much more contagious than normal flu. If it spreads freely (ie people give up self-isolating and there are no travel/meeting restrictions) - then assume 60% of the population catch it, and a mortality rate of 1.5% :   66m x 0.6 x 0.015 = 594k ie. around half a million people.
What is your reasoning for assuming that 60% of people in the UK will catch it?

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 01, 2020, 01:33:18 PM
How to take on coronavirus

https://newsthump.com/2020/02/28/glaswegian-scientists-discover-key-way-of-fighting-coronavirus-is-to-kick-its-fckin-cnt-in/?fbclid=IwAR2pj1Nx0Kch0_y2TJtopWbKt-eB1x325S-Tpbf1mQr9QPjOAbKRRRlX3zM
;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 01, 2020, 02:29:37 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51697991

Another 12 cases  have been reported in the UK, bringing the total up to 35.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 01, 2020, 03:20:05 PM
What is your reasoning for assuming that 60% of people in the UK will catch it?

That is currently the worst case figure being used by various epidemiologists as percentage infected worldwide - although if suitable precautions or actions are taken it will be kept well below that.

The difficulty is that so little is known so far - eg. how long people can be contagious before showing symptoms. The "14 days" in use is as much a guess as anything else.

There is no good estimate of the R0 figure (the number of other people an infected person is likely to infect) normally used to calculate spread. For flu it is 1.2, For coronavirus it seems it might be between 2.5 and 4 - similar to the 1918 pandemic flu version. Ebola is 2.5.   
 
That is why Hancock is "taking nothing off the table"
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 01, 2020, 06:14:06 PM
That is currently the worst case figure being used by various epidemiologists as percentage infected worldwide
The worst case isn't really all that relevant to the point I made. I think it is more likely that the economic downturn will kill more people than the virus does directly.

Quote
There is no good estimate of the R0 figure (the number of other people an infected person is likely to infect) normally used to calculate spread. For flu it is 1.2, For coronavirus it seems it might be between 2.5 and 4 - similar to the 1918 pandemic flu version. Ebola is 2.5.   
In the More or Less article on this very subject, they suggested it was around two. The higher estimates are hysterical nonsense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 01, 2020, 07:38:34 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51697991

Another 12 cases  have been reported in the UK, bringing the total up to 35.
In a population of 67.5 million - big deal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 01, 2020, 09:05:38 PM
The worst case isn't really all that relevant to the point I made. I think it is more likely that the economic downturn will kill more people than the virus does directly.
In the More or Less article on this very subject, they suggested it was around two. The higher estimates are hysterical nonsense.

In the broadcast at the start of Feb Natalie Mcdermot suggested the the R0 was 2.5 and the mortality rate was between 2 and 3% (with caveats of course).  Two weeks later the figures they were working with were revised, showing a sudden jump in reported infections (broadcast 14 Feb), and we are now two weeks beyond that.

We now know that there were more infections than previously estimated (ie the reproduction figure was at least 2.5) so have a revised, lower, mortality rate of about 1.5% . The reproduction rate is dependent on how well control measures are working so, as we don't yet have much idea on that, is difficult to pin down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 02, 2020, 08:51:09 AM
I wouldn't be surprised if some of those 'end times' dorks have discovered a verse in Revelation predicting the outbreak of the virus!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 02, 2020, 09:05:19 AM
I wouldn't be surprised if some of those 'end times' dorks have discovered a verse in Revelation predicting the outbreak of the virus!
And I'm not surprised at you having a pop at religion in a completely irrelevant thread. It might have been wiser to wait until the dorks actually did say it was predicted in Revelation before commenting, otherwise you could end up looking foolish.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 02, 2020, 09:22:25 AM
And I'm not surprised at you having a pop at religion in a completely irrelevant thread. It might have been wiser to wait until the dorks actually did say it was predicted in Revelation before commenting, otherwise you could end up looking foolish.

Prophesying events after the fact isn't very impressive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 02, 2020, 10:27:01 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51700604

The latest news on the virus is that widespread transmission in the UK is highly likely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on March 02, 2020, 02:27:34 PM
For once, I agreee with the Tories. Best place for the dirge....C**P from both ends...... https://www.thenational.scot/news/18274272.coronavirus-matt-hancock-tells-public-sing-god-save-queen/?fbclid=IwAR0V85oPJcndRMBDr37E7-TUHtBB-z0ebKRSlVfSdV_IWmZq4C-x7PqslMU
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 02, 2020, 03:36:12 PM
Apparently there is speculation the Pope might have the coronavirus as he has cancelled a lot of engagements due to a 'cold'. I hope Frankie is ok, he is the best Pope the RCC has had in a long while.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 02, 2020, 11:12:11 PM
Apparently there is speculation the Pope might have the coronavirus as he has cancelled a lot of engagements due to a 'cold'. I hope Frankie is ok, he is the best Pope the RCC has had in a long while.
If it is cold-like, with runny nose etc., it prolly isn't Corvid-19, as apparently it doesn't produce that - it is marked by fever, aches, and a dry cough, but no rhinitis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 03, 2020, 08:47:59 AM
If it is cold-like, with runny nose etc., it prolly isn't Corvid-19, as apparently it doesn't produce that - it is marked by fever, aches, and a dry cough, but no rhinitis.

Fever, cough, runny nose, sore throat and trouble breathing are some of the most common symptoms of the novel coronavirus.
"It can be more severe for some persons and can lead to pneumonia or breathing difficulties," the World Health Organization says.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 03, 2020, 09:23:04 AM
Fever, cough, runny nose, sore throat and trouble breathing are some of the most common symptoms of the novel coronavirus.
"It can be more severe for some persons and can lead to pneumonia or breathing difficulties," the World Health Organization says.
From the NHS website:
Quote
Symptoms of coronavirus
The symptoms of coronavirus are:

a cough
a high temperature
shortness of breath
But these symptoms do not necessarily mean you have the illness.

The symptoms are similar to other illnesses that are much more common, such as cold and flu.
"are", not "include", and no mention of a runny nose.
I definitely read somewhere that one feature which distinguishes Covid-19 from ordinary flu is that it doesn't cause rhinitis, but other websites are mentioning runny nose as a symptom. You may or may not get a runny nose from it, therefore.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on March 03, 2020, 09:28:16 AM
So, the genious department of number 10 think leaving the EU pandemic forum to make a clean break, at a time of a potential pandemic, is a good move?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/01/downing-street-department-health-locked-row-access-eu-pandemic/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 03, 2020, 10:15:31 AM
From the NHS website:  "are", not "include", and no mention of a runny nose.
I definitely read somewhere that one feature which distinguishes Covid-19 from ordinary flu is that it doesn't cause rhinitis, but other websites are mentioning runny nose as a symptom. You may or may not get a runny nose from it, therefore.

All the sites I have come across have mentioned a runny nose.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 03, 2020, 06:04:42 PM
A nice little diagram that shows the relative contagion of various diseases.

https://twitter.com/foodskop/status/1234220483102547977/photo/1

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 04, 2020, 11:37:27 AM
Chinese media (Global Times) is reporting an interesting paper published yesterday:

Quote

ABSTRACT
...
Our results suggest that the development of new variations in functional sites in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike seen in SARS-CoV-2 and viruses from pangolin SARSr-CoVs are likely caused by mutations and natural selection besides recombination. Population genetic analyses of 103 SARS-CoV-2 genomes indicated that these viruses evolved into two major types (designated L and S), that are well defined by two different SNPs that show nearly complete linkage across the viral strains sequenced to date. Although the L type (∼70%) is more prevalent than the S type (∼30%), the S type was found to be the ancestral version.
Whereas the L type was more prevalent in the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan, the frequency of the L type decreased after early January 2020. Human intervention may have placed more severe selective pressure on the L type, which might be more aggressive and spread more quickly. On the other hand, the S type, which is evolutionarily older and less aggressive, might have increased in relative frequency due to relatively weaker selective pressure.
...


https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463

That is, there may be two forms of the virus infecting humans, S and L, the less dangerous S version having mutated into the more dangerous L at an early point. They think actions taken in Wuhan might have helped to stop the spread of L as the S version seems to be found with increasing frequency now.

ETA: https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1181612.shtml
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 04, 2020, 01:29:32 PM
Italy closing all its schools
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 04, 2020, 01:53:07 PM
Italy closing all its schools

Britain could well be doing the same if the virus spread gets any worse.

There are now 84 cases of the virus in the UK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 04, 2020, 03:08:06 PM
Britain could well be doing the same if the virus spread gets any worse.

There are now 84 cases of the virus in the UK.


The BBC's earlier certainty about the closing of schools in Italy has been moved to being considered. If there is some attempts at mass closures in things like schools, we are going to have a lot of people who won't get sick pay, and who despite the witterings of Johnson be unlikely to qualify for Universal Credit, and certainly won't get any money from UC in time who will be affected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 04, 2020, 03:52:11 PM
FlyBe saying they might go bust because of coronavirus
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 04, 2020, 03:53:22 PM
FlyBe saying they might go bust because of coronavirus

That doesn't surprise me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on March 04, 2020, 04:12:15 PM
Apparently there is speculation the Pope might have the coronavirus as he has cancelled a lot of engagements due to a 'cold'. I hope Frankie is ok, he is the best Pope the RCC has had in a long while.

He doesn't/didn't have Coronavirus, he had a bad cold and cough. If he did he'd have the best care and despite his age, would probably have recovered.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on March 04, 2020, 04:26:13 PM
Britain could well be doing the same if the virus spread gets any worse.

There are now 84 cases of the virus in the UK.

None near me & I'm not saying "I'm alright Jack", I just checked online.
People generally aren't as worried about it as the media make out. Honestly nobody at work has even mentioned it - including those who've had a cough. Life goes on regardless, we can do nomore than rigorously observe basic hygiene routines& carry on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 04, 2020, 04:37:25 PM
He doesn't/didn't have Coronavirus, he had a bad cold and cough. If he did he'd have the best care and despite his age, would probably have recovered.

I am glad Frankie hasn't got the virus, but at his age and with an already dodgy lung, he might have struggled to make a recovery.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 04, 2020, 04:46:45 PM
None near me & I'm not saying "I'm alright Jack", I just checked online.
People generally aren't as worried about it as the media make out. Honestly nobody at work has even mentioned it - including those who've had a cough. Life goes on regardless, we can do nomore than rigorously observe basic hygiene routines& carry on.
  Everyone in my area has been asked to check that they can work from home. My wife's international business travel has been cancelled. As already noted FlyBe are calling out they may go under.

As to the number of cases, is it me or is there a hint of Fibonnaci sequence in the UK numbers, suggesting tomorrow numbers will be up by around 51?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 04, 2020, 04:52:53 PM
  Everyone in my area has been asked to check that they can work from home. My wife's international business travel has been cancelled. As already noted FlyBe are calling out they may go under.

As to the number of cases, is it me or is there a hint of Fibonnaci sequence in the UK numbers, suggesting tomorrow numbers will be up by around 51?

https://www.livescience.com/37470-fibonacci-sequence.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 04, 2020, 05:33:49 PM
https://www.livescience.com/37470-fibonacci-sequence.html
Yes I know what it is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 04, 2020, 06:10:01 PM
Yes I know what it is.

You might but I bet not many others do, I had never heard of it for a start.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51743697

Italy has now confirmed it will close all schools and universities for 10 days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 04, 2020, 06:54:56 PM
...
As to the number of cases, is it me or is there a hint of Fibonnaci sequence in the UK numbers, suggesting tomorrow numbers will be up by around 51?

They are just the typical kind of numbers you'd expect at the start of an exponential rise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 04, 2020, 07:44:58 PM
They are just the typical kind of numbers you'd expect at the start of an exponential rise.
Agree, that was the point I was making
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 04, 2020, 07:45:53 PM
You might but I bet not many others do, I had never heard of it for a start.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51743697

Italy has now confirmed it will close all schools and universities for 10 days.
Ah, in that case , thank you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 04, 2020, 09:18:23 PM
Everyone in my area has been asked to check that they can work from home.

What about all those who can't work from home? Working at home must be great if you have that kind of job.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on March 04, 2020, 11:32:12 PM
https://www.livescience.com/37470-fibonacci-sequence.html

Learned about that at school in maths, was supposed to be 'fun', had maths teacher who told maths jokes ???.

It does seem appropriate in this context.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 05, 2020, 05:42:36 AM
What about all those who can't work from home? Working at home must be great if you have that kind of job.
Yep, agreed. And many of those jobs where home working isn't possible will be low paid and have little or no benefits
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 05, 2020, 07:33:14 AM
Yep, agreed. And many of those jobs where home working isn't possible will be low paid and have little or no benefits

Indeed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 05, 2020, 08:44:24 AM
When I went to Tesco this morning there were no anti-bac products to be had and canned goods, especially soup, were in short supply as people are stocking up for the worst case scenario.

I see Flybe is partly blaming the virus for its collapse.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51746564
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 05, 2020, 09:39:45 AM
When I went to Tesco this morning there were no anti-bac products to be had and canned goods, especially soup, were in short supply as people are stocking up for the worst case scenario.

I see Flybe is partly blaming the virus for its collapse.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51746564

Never understood stockpilers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 05, 2020, 11:55:59 AM
With all the advice on hand washing, and sanitising, I'm wondering whether it makes sense for people to be reminded more often of this to prevent more common viruses.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 05, 2020, 02:11:13 PM
With all the advice on hand washing, and sanitising, I'm wondering whether it makes sense for people to be reminded more often of this to prevent more common viruses.

 Handshaking advice from Chris Whitty  (https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-mainly-in-delay-phase-of-covid-19-response-says-chief-medical-officer-11950007)

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 05, 2020, 04:24:53 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51749352

There are now 115 cases of the virus in the UK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 05, 2020, 06:30:10 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51759602

A patient has died of the virus here in the UK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 05, 2020, 08:38:05 PM
When I went to Tesco this morning there were no anti-bac products to be had and canned goods, especially soup, were in short supply as people are stocking up for the worst case scenario.

I see Flybe is partly blaming the virus for its collapse.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51746564
They probably saw a huge  drop off in bookings. As  they were already  in serious  trouble, they had  no chance.  This kind of story is going to become increasingly common.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 06, 2020, 07:18:55 AM
Brilliant advice


https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2020/03/05/dont-die-coronavirus-watch-finest-clip/?fbclid=IwAR3UDwEE1SZDMP5aZdmW6QaVWE57cBD6TIktLL9VuwcoubXu2P0JjCgo35U
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 06, 2020, 08:34:15 AM
Our Vicar daughter told me they had been given a directive not to offer the communion chalice to celebrants.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on March 06, 2020, 08:47:55 AM
Our Vicar daughter told me they had been given a directive not to offer the communion chalice to celebrants.
   


We use individual cups for each celebrant - tiny glass ones.
Problem solved.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 06, 2020, 09:05:25 AM
   


We use individual cups for each celebrant - tiny glass ones.
Problem solved.

I doubt they are going to bother buying small glasses to hand out to the celebrants.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on March 06, 2020, 09:18:26 AM
I doubt they are going to bother buying small glasses to hand out to the celebrants.


OK....Communion in the CofS 101;
1. Senior elders serve bread and wine to minister.
Wine is in siver cups (Ours are four centuries old)
Minister serves cup and bread to all elders...democracy, eh? No-one is 'superior'.
The elders take plates of bread and trays containing the tiny cups, already filled with wine before the service, to the congregation.
It's a lot quicker that way than t'other one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 06, 2020, 09:42:30 AM


OK....Communion in the CofS 101;
1. Senior elders serve bread and wine to minister.
Wine is in siver cups (Ours are four centuries old)
Minister serves cup and bread to all elders...democracy, eh? No-one is 'superior'.
The elders take plates of bread and trays containing the tiny cups, already filled with wine before the service, to the congregation.
It's a lot quicker that way than t'other one.


Bethlehem is now in quarantine
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 06, 2020, 10:02:22 AM
Britain could well be doing the same if the virus spread gets any worse.

There are now 84 cases of the virus in the UK.
In a population of over 67 million. I'm not panicking yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on March 06, 2020, 10:04:59 AM
Bethlehem is now in quarantine
   



Since they're virtually surrounded by a damn great wall, will they notice the difference?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 06, 2020, 10:18:02 AM


OK....Communion in the CofS 101;
1. Senior elders serve bread and wine to minister.
Wine is in siver cups (Ours are four centuries old)
Minister serves cup and bread to all elders...democracy, eh? No-one is 'superior'.
The elders take plates of bread and trays containing the tiny cups, already filled with wine before the service, to the congregation.
It's a lot quicker that way than t'other one.

I think it would be safer to ditch the communion until this virus is over and done with. The sky fairy isn't going to be offering protection to the congregations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on March 06, 2020, 10:22:54 AM
I think it would be safer to ditch the communion until this virus is over and done with. The sky fairy isn't going to be offering protection to the congregations.
   



Communion isn't protection, it's commemoration.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 06, 2020, 10:25:27 AM



Communion isn't protection, it's commemoration.

A rather daft one, in my opinion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 06, 2020, 10:32:06 AM
https://dundonaldliberation.army/2020/03/05/uk-one-more-coronavirus-case-away-from-bono-geldof-aid-song/?fbclid=IwAR2hGLHPrjPSH02JFDw2V-oBOuYJtjU8U-9xdQxoskKS_7u5sNmLL_JVtBY
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on March 06, 2020, 10:34:17 AM
A rather daft one, in my opinion.
 
A rather wonderful one in mine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 06, 2020, 10:48:07 AM
Moderator Discussion of communion outside of the relevance of Covid 19 is off topic. Any further discussion in that vein will be removed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 06, 2020, 11:08:07 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51761435

The US has a shortage of kits to test for the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 06, 2020, 12:06:59 PM
And first case in the Vatican
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 06, 2020, 12:13:49 PM
In a population of over 67 million. I'm not panicking yet.

Indeed. I like those odds. I do think the whole thing is being blown a little out of proportion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 06, 2020, 01:04:39 PM

Communion isn't protection, it's commemoration.

I took LR's comment to mean that God won't be preventing communicants from contracting the disease while commemorating his son.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 06, 2020, 01:21:26 PM
Indeed. I like those odds. I do think the whole thing is being blown a little out of proportion.

How do you know?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 06, 2020, 01:29:55 PM
How do you know?
Because of the oddss. Pay attention at the back!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 06, 2020, 01:32:07 PM
"Church urges 'don't share chalices'

Religious groups have been announcing new guidance in a bid to protect congregations from the outbreak.

Among them is the Church in Wales, which has urged ministers not to share chalices during communion in a bid to halt the spread of coronavirus.

Its new advice also asks people to use "non-physical" ways of sharing the peace, instead of handshakes, hugs or kisses.

Catholics in some dioceses in England and Wales have also been advised not to offer their hands for the sign of peace. And Quakers have been urged not to shake hands as they would normally at the end of their meetings for worship."

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 06, 2020, 01:35:15 PM
My local Wetherspoons, an hour ago, as usual had the TV tuned to the BBC news channel, with the sound down and the computer-generated subtitles on. It was reporting on the coronavirus, and, as I passed, the subtitles said something about "a statement from death row". That was quickly corrected to "...from DEFRA". Phew!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 06, 2020, 01:43:16 PM
Because of the oddss. Pay attention at the back!

And of course, these won't change.  What a relief.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 06, 2020, 01:55:25 PM
And of course, these won't change.  What a relief.

My point was that we're in danger of sending people into panic. You already have people worried enough to go and stockpile hand sanitiser and food, and for what? Granted, there's much we don't know but what we do know is that this virus is not as contagious or as deadly as seasonal flu. It's about finding the right balance.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 06, 2020, 01:59:01 PM
My point was that we're in danger of sending people into panic. You already have people worried enough to go and stockpile hand sanitiser and food, and for what? Granted, there's much we don't know but what we do know is that this virus is not as contagious or as deadly as seasonal flu. It's about finding the right balance.

It would appear to be more contagious than seasonal flu, from what they were saying on the news at lunchtime.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 06, 2020, 02:36:29 PM
My point was that we're in danger of sending people into panic. You already have people worried enough to go and stockpile hand sanitiser and food, and for what? Granted, there's much we don't know but what we do know is that this virus is not as contagious or as deadly as seasonal flu. It's about finding the right balance.

Any back-up for your claims on contagion and fatalities?   I was reading that it's  10 times deadlier.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 06, 2020, 02:45:44 PM
My point was that we're in danger of sending people into panic. You already have people worried enough to go and stockpile hand sanitiser and food, and for what? Granted, there's much we don't know but what we do know is that this virus is not as contagious or as deadly as seasonal flu. It's about finding the right balance.

I get some of the stockpiling given the idea of 2 weeks self isolation. I suspect some people might be going beyond that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 06, 2020, 02:48:45 PM
Any back-up for your claims on contagion and fatalities?   I was reading that it's  10 times deadlier.

That's going according to the goverment's chief medical expert over here. In Wuhan 0.1% of the population have contracted the virus. 0.1% over here would be just over 6000 people. So far we have 15 confirmed cases. Compared to flu, annually in Finland 5% of adults and 10% of children contract the flu virus. So there's no need for panic yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 06, 2020, 03:10:55 PM
Shite like Hancock lying undermines any govt message.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51769184
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 06, 2020, 03:26:23 PM
That's going according to the goverment's chief medical expert over here. In Wuhan 0.1% of the population have contracted the virus. 0.1% over here would be just over 6000 people. So far we have 15 confirmed cases. Compared to flu, annually in Finland 5% of adults and 10% of children contract the flu virus. So there's no need for panic yet.

Well, the Chinese are reporting areas with no infections for 3 weeks, and schools are reopening, so their strict measures seem to work.  I haven't noticed any panic.

WHO are reporting a death rate of 3.4%.   However, this probably leaves out many mild cases, so more like 1%?   However, this also suggests the virus is more widespread than stats show.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 06, 2020, 03:29:24 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51771815

There are now 163 cases of the virus 48 more than yesterday!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 06, 2020, 03:38:36 PM
what we do know is that this virus is not as contagious or as deadly as seasonal flu. It's about finding the right balance.
No. It's more contagious and more deadly than seasonal flu. That's why we don't have panics every year about seasonal flu.

It is less contagious and probably less deadly than pandemic flu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu) but that's not real of much comfort if you are one of the 20 million or so people who would die.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 06, 2020, 03:51:13 PM
Just as a follow up, the US is reporting 99 cases, with 10 deaths.  This is a death rate of 10%.  However, it is likely that many more people have the virus mildly or without symptoms, so the death rate is much lower.  So the problem is a different one!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 06, 2020, 03:58:25 PM
Just as a follow up, the US is reporting 99 cases, with 10 deaths.  This is a death rate of 10%.  However, it is likely that many more people have the virus mildly or without symptoms, so the death rate is much lower.  So the problem is a different one!

And we have 163 cases and one confirmed death (a man in Milton Keynes may have died from the virus, they're still doing the tests).

I'd be extremely concerned about the US figures because their healthcare system is not fit for purpose. If going to the doctor and then being quarantined for several weeks is going to cost you a lot of money, there is strong pressure not to do it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on March 06, 2020, 06:05:29 PM
I think it would be safer to ditch the communion until this virus is over and done with. The sky fairy isn't going to be offering protection to the congregations.

How rude.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 06, 2020, 06:06:39 PM
Just as a follow up, the US is reporting 99 cases, with 10 deaths.  This is a death rate of 10%.  However, it is likely that many more people have the virus mildly or without symptoms, so the death rate is much lower.  So the problem is a different one!

They must be short of toilet paper!

(sorry :) )
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on March 07, 2020, 12:43:34 PM
Just had supermrket delivery, husband took it in. He said the driver told him it was worse than Christmas with so many stockpiling (didn't mean us, our order was normal & not big). I know nobody personally who is panic buying but have read about it online so must be different in other areas of the country.

From BBC 164 known cases in UK - "-said that of those confirmed to have the virus in the UK by 6 March, 18 had recovered and about 45 had been self-isolating at home."
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 07, 2020, 02:51:17 PM
It would appear to be more contagious than seasonal flu, from what they were saying on the news at lunchtime.
The Guardian agrees with you. However, the death rate is low.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 07, 2020, 03:02:45 PM
The Guardian agrees with you. However, the death rate is low.

Depends how you look at it:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 07, 2020, 03:19:44 PM
Depends how you look at it:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

There are probably many factors. Germany's figures are interesting. As of this morning, almost 600 cases and no fatalities so far.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 07, 2020, 03:22:31 PM
The UK has 206 people who have tested positive for the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on March 07, 2020, 03:40:37 PM
I agree with those who say the figures for here are not high but if any one of us or people near to us were affected we would be concerned. Some of us have jobs that by their very nature bring us into frequent contact with many other people and families, we're fortunate that the virus isn't currently in our districts but it could happen. If it does I hope I will carry on as normal as long as possible but chances are we'd shut down for a while and restrict ourselves to the telephone which would be most unsatisfactory.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 07, 2020, 03:42:34 PM
We now have 19, so up by 4. The 4 new cases were confirmed this morning and they were all people recently returned from northern Italy. Good news, as it means it's not spreading amongst the population here yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 07, 2020, 04:05:34 PM
We now have 19, so up by 4. The 4 new cases were confirmed this morning and they were all people recently returned from northern Italy. Good news, as it means it's not spreading amongst the population here yet.

Yes, that is good. Death figures are not high in Europe except for Italy, and will not be high if people behave sensibly and follow government advice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 08, 2020, 10:33:07 AM
Italy has quarantined 16,000,000 people!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SweetPea on March 08, 2020, 12:44:04 PM
LittleRoses

This is Professor John Oxford, I couldn't quite catch it, but I think he is a biologist and also a flu specialist. Listen from about 4mins in, he just puts things in perspective a little. Apparently, 5,000 have died in the UK from flu already this winter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aZKdrsiEjc
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 08, 2020, 01:49:29 PM
LittleRoses

This is Professor John Oxford, I couldn't quite catch it, but I think he is a biologist and also a flu specialist. Listen from about 4mins in, he just puts things in perspective a little. Apparently, 5,000 have died in the UK from flu already this winter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aZKdrsiEjc

I thought the figure was about 600. Apparently the Covid-19 strain is more contagious than flu, so more people are likely to be affected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: bluehillside Retd. on March 08, 2020, 01:58:17 PM
It's sometimes said that the sinking of the Titanic saved many more lives than it cost because the tragedy triggered legislation requiring a passenger ships to have sufficient lifeboats.

An interesting take on the Coronavirus is perhaps that it could do the same - if the number deaths it would cause in the UK is very low but the incidence of deaths from food poisoning (currently around 500 per year) fell significantly because people were washing their hands more thoroughly there could be an overall net "win".

Just a thought.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 08, 2020, 02:08:16 PM
It's sometimes said that the sinking of the Titanic saved many more lives than it cost because the tragedy triggered legislation requiring a passenger ships to have sufficient lifeboats.

An interesting take on the Coronavirus is perhaps that it could do the same - if the number deaths it would cause in the UK is very low but the incidence of deaths from food poisoning (currently around 500 per year) fell significantly because people were washing their hands more thoroughly there could be an overall net "win".

Just a thought.

It would be shocking if it took a deadly virus to encourage people to wash their hands more regularly and thoroughly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 08, 2020, 04:37:39 PM
There are now 273 cases of the virus in the UK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on March 08, 2020, 05:18:40 PM
Are there, that seems like a big jump from yesterday & there will be more tomorrow. A lot of that number will have caught the virus earlier and recovered. I'm not panicking at all but am concerned, we'll all be glad when it's over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 08, 2020, 05:19:20 PM
There are now 273 cases of the virus in the UK.
Well, I hope they are kept tightly shut, asnd are leakproof.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 08, 2020, 07:47:32 PM
Over here we now have 23 confirmed cases. The new ones again were linked directly or indirectly to nothern Italy. No fatalities in the Nordic countries so far.

Germany now has over 900 and still no fatalities. Interesting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 09, 2020, 08:26:07 AM
There have been three fatalities in the UK, so far.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 09, 2020, 09:50:29 AM
The 'healing' pools at Lourdes are shut because of coronavirus
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 09, 2020, 10:16:15 AM
Not entirely Covid-19 related but mainly. There is an underlying nervousness to the markets that this is playing on


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51796806
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 09, 2020, 10:18:59 AM
Not entirely Covid-19 related but mainly. There is an underlying nervousness to the markets that this is playing on


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51796806

The price of oil has come right down, I doubt too many people will cry about that if the price at the petrol pumps are reduced.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 09, 2020, 10:50:24 AM
Not entirely Covid-19 related but mainly. There is an underlying nervousness to the markets that this is playing on


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51796806

Covid-19 is a biological phenomenon. The SARS-Cov-2 virus physically exists and affects people.

The economy is bunch of human devised rules and other fluff.

Funny if we can defeat the virus only to be brought down by a collapsing economy?
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 09, 2020, 10:57:48 AM
Covid-19 is a biological phenomenon. The SARS-Cov-2 virus physically exists and affects people.

The economy is bunch of human devised rules and other fluff.

Funny if we can defeat the virus only to be brought down by a collapsing economy?
I think rather like virus having a disproportionate effect on those with underlying conditions that's true of the economy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 09, 2020, 11:00:09 AM
The price of oil has come right down, I doubt too many people will cry about that if the price at the petrol pumps are reduced.
It will affect govt incomes so it may well affect millions who cannot afford a car. In addition will lead to lay offs in the oil industry, and indeed is indicative of a slowdown in demand which will lead to lay offs in other areas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 09, 2020, 12:02:18 PM
The 'healing' pools at Lourdes are shut because of coronavirus
The RC church does not officially claim that the pools have any healing property.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 09, 2020, 12:08:42 PM
https://www.thecatholicuniverse.com/lourdes-shrine-closes-healing-pools-as-precaution-against-coronavirus-49120

Trips are arranged by the RCC for those who seek healing for their medical problems.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 09, 2020, 12:25:56 PM
https://guernseypress.com/news/2020/03/09/first-coronavirus-case-confirmed-in-guernsey/

The first case of the coronavirus has been confirmed in my home island of Guernsey, which is rather worrying. :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sebastian Toe on March 09, 2020, 12:48:11 PM
The RC church does not officially claim that the pools have any healing property.
It had though, certified dozens of miracles eliminating from that place.
What conclusions would a reasonable person draw from that?
Would it be that the RC church denies any healing properties exist there?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 09, 2020, 01:29:38 PM
While I posted about the 'healing'pools being closed in part because of an obvious irony, I only saw it as part of the impact of the virus. I don't see this as the most suitable thread  for a discussion of the RCC or Lourdes miracle claims.

There will be an interesting book to.be written about the way Covid-19 has been reported, actioned taken, the different attempts at spinning on it. I've seen a number of US politicians using the name Wuhan flu recently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 09, 2020, 01:42:17 PM

There will be an interesting book to.be written about the way Covid-19 has been reported, actioned taken, the different attempts at spinning on it. I've seen a number of US politicians using the name Wuhan flu recently.
Not tactful, but at least accurate as far as its origin is concerned, unlike the 1918-20 "Spanish" flu, which probably arose in Kansas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 09, 2020, 01:53:31 PM
Not tactful, but at least accurate as far as its origin is concerned, unlike the 1918-20 "Spanish" flu, which probably arose in Kansas.
I think it's more than just a lack of tact, given the sudden concentration of statements I've seen using it, I think it is deliberately manipulative. Though we have also had claims previously from the Chinese that it isn't Wuhan that was the centre.

I'm also interested in the different attitudes taken by different govts and would be fascinated about the flow of information. Add to that the panic buying and the many conspiracy throeries and there's swathes of material.


I've been doing a quick count of the usage of the public transport that I regularly use and while I think there is a small downturn in numbers, not seeing it as very noticeable as yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 09, 2020, 02:53:21 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51796072

There are now 319 cases in the UK, up 46 on yesterday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 09, 2020, 05:00:39 PM
If you don't like Happy Birthday or God Save the Queen for washing  your hands, create your oen

https://washyourlyrics.com/?fbclid=IwAR00nOw955atRlvwEAbqkW7Y26_Y4IowQ1fnsFgCpTSVl7HaR-Gv5SONOkM
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 09, 2020, 05:15:12 PM
Paddy's Day in Dublin cancelled.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 09, 2020, 11:24:49 PM
Breaking News: President Trump has caught Covfefe-19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 10, 2020, 06:38:14 AM
The shutdown of Italy makes one wonder how long it is until we see this here. At work yesterday, I suggested that we were about 10 days behind Italy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 10, 2020, 07:01:56 AM
Once your skin starts getting dry, use less soap but change the towel more regularly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 10, 2020, 07:03:05 AM
The shutdown of Italy makes one wonder how long it is until we see this here. At work yesterday, I suggested that we were about 10 days behind Italy.
Hopefully, we’ll never go that far.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 10, 2020, 07:03:26 AM
If you can't get hold of a face mask, try a coughee filter from Costa
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 10, 2020, 07:08:30 AM
Saw this yesterday and this sums up a lot of my thoughts


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/09/johnsons-coronavirus-press-conference-is-anything-but-reassuring
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 10, 2020, 09:21:49 AM
Saw this yesterday and this sums up a lot of my thoughts


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/09/johnsons-coronavirus-press-conference-is-anything-but-reassuring

They have chosen a particular course of action that they calculate will minimize the impact to the economy and normal life - and the number of people seriously affected. If it doesn't go the way they want they will have to trade-off between the two in a state of crisis.

Given what we know from around the world, my inclination would have been to clamp down hard immediately, then loosen up as possible, from a state where we were in control.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 10, 2020, 09:27:16 AM
They have chosen a particular course of action that they calculate will minimize the impact to the economy and normal life - and the number of people seriously affected. If it doesn't go the way they want they will have to trade-off between the two in a state of crisis.

Given what we know from around the world, my inclination would have been to clamp down hard immediately, then loosen up as possible, from a state where we were in control.
There's a graph about the impact on St louis and Philadelphia of Spanish flu when St Louis stopped big public gatherings, and Philadelphia didn't that's worth seeking out
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 10, 2020, 09:42:28 AM
This may be what NS is referring to:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6140242/

Graphs and figures are about two thirds of the way through if you scroll down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 10, 2020, 10:42:10 AM
This may be what NS is referring to:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6140242/

Graphs and figures are about two thirds of the way through if you scroll down.

Yes. indeed, I'm sure they have taken those lessens into account.

I'm just feeling insecure about resilience to unknown factors - further mutations, side-effects, false info on social media, economic effects due to actions (or non-actions) elsewhere and so on.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 10, 2020, 11:19:12 AM
Yes. indeed, I'm sure they have taken those lessens into account.

I'm just feeling insecure about resilience to unknown factors - further mutations, side-effects, false info on social media, economic effects due to actions (or non-actions) elsewhere and so on.
I'm not sure from what I see from the govt what they are thinking never mind what lessons they've taken into account. And in that and on the other aspects you mention, I share your insecurity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 10, 2020, 11:20:30 AM
This may be what NS is referring to:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6140242/

Graphs and figures are about two thirds of the way through if you scroll down.
It's similar - I can't seem to access sites with it but I saw the Philadelphia v St Louis graph elsewhere and it's similar in the St Louis v Boston one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 10, 2020, 11:34:09 AM
Just seen an Italian hospital consultant on Victoria Derbyshire and he implied very strongly that we should be taking social distancing measures now. Adding sadly, look what's happened to Italy.

The government is clearly not putting public health as its top priority.

I can't express this strongly enough. Do not trust them on this one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 10, 2020, 11:50:27 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51803890

How Trump is handling the coronavirus!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 10, 2020, 12:01:41 PM
Just seen an Italian hospital consultant on Victoria Derbyshire and he implied very strongly that we should be taking social distancing measures now. Adding sadly, look what's happened to Italy.

The government is clearly not putting public health as its top priority.

I can't express this strongly enough. Do not trust them on this one.
We appear to be about 13 days behind Italy in terms of cases - I can't see why we haven't at least switched all sports events to being behind closed doors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 10, 2020, 12:44:36 PM
We'll be laughing about all the panic-buying and predictions of doom in a couple of years' time, as we squat around bonfires in the abandoned ruins of our cities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 10, 2020, 01:30:22 PM
More breaking news: antidote discovered! (https://i.pinimg.com/originals/3d/a2/4f/3da24f0e40b567de0931dfd466fa3b82.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 10, 2020, 02:06:39 PM
A sixth person has died of the virus in the UK, an 80 years man in Watford with underlying health issues.

There are now 373 cases of the virus here in the UK a rise of 54 since yesterday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 10, 2020, 03:28:42 PM
Some people are saying that an Italian style crackdown is inevitable, but is being held back, for political reasons.   I have no idea if this correct.  I guess if there is a surge in numbers, into the tens of thousands, it will happen.  But it's the severity also, how many intensive care beds will be available, with ventilation equipment?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 10, 2020, 04:33:21 PM
Some people are saying that an Italian style crackdown is inevitable, but is being held back, for political reasons.   I have no idea if this correct.  I guess if there is a surge in numbers, into the tens of thousands, it will happen.  But it's the severity also, how many intensive care beds will be available, with ventilation equipment?

I'd be more cynical than that. Covid 19 disproportionately affects the older population. Hmmm......you know we just might have the answer to social care here, and a boost to the economy with all those legacies and less to pay out in pensions.

And don't tell me you haven't all thought that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 10, 2020, 04:33:59 PM
Some people are saying that an Italian style crackdown is inevitable, but is being held back, for political reasons.   I have no idea if this correct.  I guess if there is a surge in numbers, into the tens of thousands, it will happen.  But it's the severity also, how many intensive care beds will be available, with ventilation equipment?

Yes, well, further measures are inevitable. Do you mean they are being held back for economic, rather than "political", reasons?

Crackdown measures being proposed are nearly all to help reduce spread in the  general population. We want to slow that spread, but as the main problem is going to be inability of hospitals to cope with critical cases, maybe the main thrust should be to identify those most likely to be seriously ill and put in specific measures to make sure they are protected from infection?
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 10, 2020, 04:38:39 PM
I'd be more cynical than that. Covid 19 disproportionately affects the older population. Hmmm......you know we just might have the answer to social care here, and a boost to the economy with all those legacies and less to pay out in pensions.

And don't tell me you haven't all thought that.

hmm, extremely cynical! I think even Cummings' new hires would balk at that. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 10, 2020, 04:42:46 PM
hmm, extremely cynical! I think even Cummings' new hires would balk at that.

You think.

Hmmmm....claimants for benefits forced back to work 2 weeks before dying. Windrush. Grenfell. 

Not cynical. Learning by experience.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 10, 2020, 04:50:54 PM
Richard Horton, editor of the Lancet, "the evidence is clear. We need urgent implementation of social distancing and closure policies. The government is playing roulette with the public. This is a major error."     Twitter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 10, 2020, 04:52:13 PM
You think.

Hmmmm....claimants for benefits forced back to work 2 weeks before dying. Windrush. Grenfell. 

Not cynical. Learning by experience.

Yeah - but they weren't Conservative voters...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dicky Underpants on March 10, 2020, 05:36:40 PM
The shutdown of Italy makes one wonder how long it is until we see this here. At work yesterday, I suggested that we were about 10 days behind Italy.

So far the Bristol area has reported only two victims, I believe. However, a cook/food re-heater in Gre
gg's, Nailsea near Bristol recently came back from a holiday in Venice, and went straight back to work.
The disease rate of those who frequent Gregg's is probably quite high in any case, but if Nailsea suddenly becomes a hotbed of the Corona virus, I think we'll be able to guess why.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 10, 2020, 05:42:47 PM
Fianna Fail and Fine Gael to form coalition govt in Republic of Ireland in part because of Covid 19!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on March 10, 2020, 10:53:07 PM
I'd be more cynical than that. Covid 19 disproportionately affects the older population. Hmmm......you know we just might have the answer to social care here, and a boost to the economy with all those legacies and less to pay out in pensions.

And don't tell me you haven't all thought that.

I've thought of it Trent, so have others and none of us want to think it, we're not conspiracy theorists.

I read that Trump has urged everyone to 'stay calm and it will go away'. Ha!

Apparently there are now two confirmed cases in Bromley where I live adn work but so far everyone is carrying on as usual with obvious sensible precautions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 10, 2020, 11:03:40 PM
And Nadine Dorries:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51827356
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 11, 2020, 06:57:30 AM
'Virus conference gets cancelled due to virus

A coronavirus conference has been cancelled because of the coronavirus, according to a Bloomberg report.

US Think Tank the Council on Foreign Relations was due to hold a conference called "Doing Business Under Coronavirus" on Friday in New York.'

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 11, 2020, 06:59:22 AM
On a very quiet train this morning. I think govt advice is likely to change in the next couple of days. The Nadine Dorries effect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 11, 2020, 07:27:29 AM
Maybe an acceptance that Italy is a warning, and a prediction.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 11, 2020, 08:50:59 AM
I wonder how many MPs now have the virus?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 11, 2020, 02:27:08 PM
There are now 456 confirmed cases of the virus in the UK, 83 more cases than yesterday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 11, 2020, 03:01:36 PM
Surely this is the start of the end of the Europa League and the Champions league for this season, and probably the Euros

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51831256
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 11, 2020, 03:09:35 PM
Merkel warns that 70% of Germans could catch the virus.  And?

But a German virologist,  Alexander Kekule, stated that she was wrong, and a max of 40 000, might get infected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 11, 2020, 03:52:34 PM
We appear to be about 13 days behind Italy in terms of cases - I can't see why we haven't at least switched all sports events to being behind closed doors.
It should be obvious. If people can’t go to the game, they’ll watch it on the telly.

In a pub.

Italy’s economy is almost certainly in a death spiral thanks to the measures they are taking. The deaths and hardship that will result from that may outnumber the coronavirus deaths.

I’m not saying that it’s wrong to start banning sports events etc, I’m just saying there is a lot more to figuring out the best course of action than panicking. Personally, I think the British government advisors have a better handle on it than you or I do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 11, 2020, 04:13:43 PM
Merkel warns that 70% of Germans could catch the virus.  And?

But a German virologist,  Alexander Kekule, stated that she was wrong, and a max of 40 000, might get infected.

I thought that statement was irresponsible. What she bases that figure on, I don't know. Of course, being ready for a worst case scenario is a different thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 11, 2020, 04:43:49 PM
The WHO has now labelled the coronavirus as a pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 11, 2020, 04:51:40 PM
Merkel warns that 70% of Germans could catch the virus.  And?

But a German virologist,  Alexander Kekule, stated that she was wrong, and a max of 40 000, might get infected.

They can both be right depending on the context of their statements.

The virologist is basing his figure on the figures for China/Hubei - but that was achieved using authoritarian power to enforce contagion control measures - unlikely to be used in Germany.

Merkel is probably using figures from a model in which German control measures do not work or are abandoned, or a reasonable worst case. We are not told.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 11, 2020, 05:02:05 PM
It should be obvious. If people can’t go to the game, they’ll watch it on the telly.

In a pub.

Italy’s economy is almost certainly in a death spiral thanks to the measures they are taking. The deaths and hardship that will result from that may outnumber the coronavirus deaths.

I’m not saying that it’s wrong to start banning sports events etc, I’m just saying there is a lot more to figuring out the best course of action than panicking. Personally, I think the British government advisors have a better handle on it than you or I do.

I mostly agree. I think the next step here is "cocooning" care homes as suggested here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51828000

 That should be relatively easy to do. Then need to find ways to extend to vulnerable (ie elderly with diabetes, heart or lung problems) people in the community.

We know how to count people that die of a disease, but how do you count people dying because of canceled sports events? Or an economy packing up?

Those economic problems can be mitigated - and, at worst, if control measures are having too large an effect on daily life people will abandon them.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 11, 2020, 05:08:23 PM
It should be obvious. If people can’t go to the game, they’ll watch it on the telly.

In a pub.

Italy’s economy is almost certainly in a death spiral thanks to the measures they are taking. The deaths and hardship that will result from that may outnumber the coronavirus deaths.

I’m not saying that it’s wrong to start banning sports events etc, I’m just saying there is a lot more to figuring out the best course of action than panicking. Personally, I think the British government advisors have a better handle on it than you or I do.

Talking sense!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 11, 2020, 06:09:32 PM
It should be obvious. If people can’t go to the game, they’ll watch it on the telly.

In a pub.

Italy’s economy is almost certainly in a death spiral thanks to the measures they are taking. The deaths and hardship that will result from that may outnumber the coronavirus deaths.

I’m not saying that it’s wrong to start banning sports events etc, I’m just saying there is a lot more to figuring out the best course of action than panicking. Personally, I think the British government advisors have a better handle on it than you or I do.
The advisors that a govt chooses to listen to, you mean?  Or are you saying all govt policy is based on great advisors?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 11, 2020, 07:27:40 PM
I thought that statement was irresponsible. What she bases that figure on, I don't know. Of course, being ready for a worst case scenario is a different thing.

The British models are apparently based on an 80% infection figure (for the worst case scenario).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 11, 2020, 07:45:33 PM
The advisors that a govt chooses to listen to, you mean?  Or are you saying all govt policy is based on great advisors?
Why would they not listen to the most qualified advisors they have?

If they get things wrong, perhaps millions of people will die, and not just coronavirus victims. Imagine needing life saving treatment but the hospital is full of coronavirus victims or the doctors are all unavailable because they are self isolating.

I can't see any way to gain political advantage from this except by doing the right  thing. Even then, the government may be screwed because it could get really bad.

Let's turn it around. Do you know of any evidence that the Italian government is doing the right thing? They stopped sporting events a while ago and the virus is  definitely not under control there.

ETA: When I say "do the right thing" I do not mean to imply that I know what the right thing is. At the moment, my feeling is that the government response is about right, but it is just a feeling.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 11, 2020, 07:50:15 PM
Why would they not listen to the most qualified advisors they have?

If they get things wrong, perhaps millions of people will die, and not just coronavirus victims. Imagine needing life saving treatment but the hospital is full of coronavirus victims or the doctors are all unavailable because they are self isolating.

I can't see any way to gain political advantage from this except by doing the right  thing. Even then, the government may be screwed because it could get really bad.

Let's turn it around. Do you know of any evidence that the Italian government is doing the right thing? They stopped sporting events a while ago and the virus is  definitely not under control there.

ETA: When I say "do the right thing" I do not mean to imply that I know what the right thing is. At the moment, my feeling is that the government response is about right, but it is just a feeling.
Do you think the govt has listened to the most qualiified advisors on the past?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 11, 2020, 07:55:18 PM
Do you think the govt has listened to the most qualiified advisors on the past?
Yes
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 11, 2020, 09:07:11 PM
Yes
So that's why Brexit is working?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 12, 2020, 06:11:15 AM
Good article


https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 12, 2020, 06:12:58 AM
So that's why Brexit is working?
You didn’t ask me if the government always listens to the best advisors.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 12, 2020, 08:32:20 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51846923

The White House idiot has suspended all travel from Europe for the next 30 days, but not from the UK. That is much more about politics than the virus, imo. ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 12, 2020, 09:35:48 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51846923

The White House idiot has suspended all travel from Europe for the next 30 days, but not from the UK. That is much more about politics than the virus, imo. ::)
It's a little more nuanced than that - it's banning people from travelling to the US from within the Schengen area if they are not U.S citizens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 12, 2020, 09:39:16 AM
Tennis season cancelled till May

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/51841130
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 12, 2020, 09:49:15 AM
Brutal stock market losses.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51829852
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 12, 2020, 12:00:41 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-51850811

The Republic of Ireland is to close all schools, colleges and other public facilities until March 29th.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 12, 2020, 01:10:52 PM
Peston is talking about herd immunity (ITV website), hopefully he has misheard this, as with this virus, that would kill a lot of people.  It does sound a bit like Boris, and "take it on the chin". 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 12, 2020, 02:23:43 PM
Here in Finland public gatherings of 500 or more are now cancelled until the end of May and I think there are some restrictions travelling abroad. Probably more measures to come during the next few days. Confirmed infections broke 100 today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 12, 2020, 02:34:50 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51846923

The White House idiot has suspended all travel from Europe for the next 30 days, but not from the UK. That is much more about politics than the virus, imo. ::)

That decision doesn't make much sense for preventing spread or politically. They could stop all non-essential flights except from covid-19 free countries.

I wouldn't be surprised if in a couple of weeks the USA is in a much worse state than Europe given their delayed reaction and testing problems.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 12, 2020, 02:41:07 PM
That decision doesn't make much sense for preventing spread or politically. They could stop all non-essential flights except from covid-19 free countries.

I wouldn't be surprised if in a couple of weeks the USA is in a much worse state than Europe given their delayed reaction and testing problems.

But as Trump claims to be doing such a fantastic job of keeping the virus at bay that couldn't possibly happen, YEH RIGHT! ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 12, 2020, 02:46:51 PM
Peston is talking about herd immunity (ITV website), hopefully he has misheard this, as with this virus, that would kill a lot of people.  It does sound a bit like Boris, and "take it on the chin".

He doesn't give a source for that "herd immunity" govt. plan. If that is what they are thinking then it is seriously misconceived - I find it difficult to believe that Whitty (Chief Medical Officer) or Vallance (Chief Scientific Adviser) would support it - but it might explain the 80% infection figure that was used.

Much, much better to try and keep the spread as low as possible and thus minimise deaths until we have a proven safe vaccine and/or cure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 12, 2020, 03:20:33 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/health-expert-brands-uks-coronavirus-response-pathetic

Quote
A leading public health expert has launched a devastating critique of the government’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak in the UK, saying it is too little too late, lacks transparency and fails to mobilise the public.

Prof John Ashton, a former regional director of public health for north-west England, lambasted a lack of preparation and openness from the government and contrasted Britain’s response to that of Hong Kong.

“Right at the beginning of February, they [Hong Kong] adopted a total approach to this, which is what we should have done five weeks ago ourselves. They took a decision to work to three principles – of responding promptly, staying alert, working in an open and transparent manner,” he told the Guardian.

“Our lot haven’t been working openly and transparently. They’ve been doing it in a (non) smoke-filled room and just dribbling out stuff. The chief medical officer only appeared in public after about two weeks. Then they have had a succession of people bobbing up and disappearing. Public Health England’s been almost invisible.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 12, 2020, 03:34:32 PM
North Wales has the first reported case in Wrexham, our daughter is a vicar in one of the churches there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 12, 2020, 04:34:42 PM
That decision doesn't make much sense for preventing spread or politically. They could stop all non-essential flights except from covid-19 free countries.
Donald Trump has a load of golf courses and a hotel in the UK.

Quote
I wouldn't be surprised if in a couple of weeks the USA is in a much worse state than Europe given their delayed reaction and testing problems.

I wouldn’t be surprised if it was already in a worse state. In a country where going to the doctor costs money, prolonged medical care may bankrupt you and staying away from work may get you fired, under reporting will be a problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 12, 2020, 04:41:29 PM
Justin Trudeau, the Canadian PM, is self isolating as his wife appears to have the virus symptoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 12, 2020, 05:20:27 PM
Donald Trump has a load of golf courses and a hotel in the UK.

I wouldn’t be surprised if it was already in a worse state. In a country where going to the doctor costs money, prolonged medical care may bankrupt you and staying away from work may get you fired, under reporting will be a problem.

Indeed. I feel sorry for ordinary Americans. Here, if a doctor says you should be in quarantine the government gives you full pay.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 12, 2020, 06:45:44 PM
NHL season has been suspended and it looks like the football European Championships will be too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 12, 2020, 07:50:11 PM
In parliament a debate is going on and all parties agree that the government should take emergency powers should the need arise in the coming days.

Even though there has been a sharp rise in the confirmed cases over here, it seems to me that it is because the authorities have been extremely efficient in working out chains of infection and chasing down those who have been exposed. Obviously easier in a country with a relatively smaller population and density.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 12, 2020, 08:46:05 PM
So isolating ourselves when we show symptoms is not going to have the slowing effect of spread hoped for:

 https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/12/coronavirus-most-infections-spread-by-people-yet-to-show-symptoms-scientists?

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on March 12, 2020, 08:58:51 PM
Preventing spread in the hope of a cure is a big gamble. Currently there are three outcomes

1. Everyone gets it in the next two monthes and the NHS won't cope
2. Slow down the spread so the spread is steady but NHS is better able to cope.
3. Shut everything down hope that you have a cure, if not Winter 2021 will get the 2nd wave and NHS won't cope.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 12, 2020, 09:06:20 PM
Preventing spread in the hope of a cure is a big gamble. Currently there are three outcomes

1. Everyone gets it in the next two monthes and the NHS won't cope
2. Slow down the spread so the spread is steady but NHS is better able to cope.
3. Shut everything down hope that you have a cure, if not Winter 2021 will get the 2nd wave and NHS won't cope.

With regards number 3, we should have a vaccine for it by then. Next summer is the estimate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 12, 2020, 09:45:35 PM
Apparently, buying shit loads of bog roll is the best fight against coronavirus, at least according to sales.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on March 13, 2020, 08:35:11 AM
Preventing spread in the hope of a cure is a big gamble. Currently there are three outcomes

1. Everyone gets it in the next two monthes and the NHS won't cope
2. Slow down the spread so the spread is steady but NHS is better able to cope.
3. Shut everything down hope that you have a cure, if not Winter 2021 will get the 2nd wave and NHS won't cope.

I think that the "prime minister*" has a secret agenda following closely on the budget.

The UK has a large number of elderly pensioners (a category which includes me) whose pensions are a considerable cost to the state. Adopt a strategy which will maximise the likelihood their imminent deaths and the benefit to the Treasury will be such that the expensive projects outlined in the Budget Speech will be affordable. I do hope that I can survive long enough to see Alexander B deP Johnson fulfill his promise and lay down before the bulldozers working on the third runway at Heathrow.

* Cummings or Johnson - whichever is appropriate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 13, 2020, 08:56:13 AM

Just to propagate this viral quote:

Quote
Sir Richard Wharton : In stage one we say nothing is going to happen.

Sir Humphrey Appleby : Stage two, we say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.

Sir Richard Wharton : In stage three, we say that maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we *can* do.

Sir Humphrey Appleby : Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 13, 2020, 09:32:05 AM
I had a macabre laugh when I saw those lists of measures being taken by various countries, and the UK looks like an outlier,  in not closing schools, sports events, etc.  Somebody said we're a control group, wot a laaf.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 13, 2020, 10:35:29 AM
UEFA postpone all matches - I presume this will happen on all major football across Europe shortly

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51870540
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 13, 2020, 11:40:15 AM
I had a macabre laugh when I saw those lists of measures being taken by various countries, and the UK looks like an outlier,  in not closing schools, sports events, etc.  Somebody said we're a control group, wot a laaf.
Belgium hasn't closed its schools yet, either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 13, 2020, 11:48:30 AM
Belgium hasn't closed its schools yet, either.

They are closing them on Monday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on March 13, 2020, 12:38:20 PM
I think that the "prime minister*" has a secret agenda following closely on the budget.

The agenda he is following is an agenda that he can rationally argue will cause the least harm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 13, 2020, 12:46:48 PM
But isn't Boris downplaying the effects of herd immunity?   Thus, if 50 million are infected, that's 500, 000 deaths, assuming 1% rate.  Of course, it may not reach 50 million.

Also a question of beds, plus ventilator.   Irish govt is looking at sports halls, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 13, 2020, 12:49:37 PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivors_(2008_TV_series)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 13, 2020, 01:48:37 PM
UEFA postpone all matches - I presume this will happen on all major football across Europe shortly

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51870540

And that's all UK major football cancelled

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51867989
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 13, 2020, 01:49:16 PM
And advice from my employers now gone to wfh from Monday if possible
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 13, 2020, 01:59:01 PM
I think working from home is sensible, if a person is able to do so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 13, 2020, 02:15:29 PM
I think working from home is sensible, if a person is able to do so.
The problem is obviously for those who can't , many of whom are on the worst contracts and have the least protections
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 13, 2020, 02:30:37 PM
And Bolsoanaro tests positive. Having had dinner with Trump


https://www.businessinsider.com/jair-bolsonaro-brazil-president-coronavirus-test-positive-2020-3?r=US&IR=T
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 13, 2020, 02:33:51 PM
Whilst Jessen tests idiot

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-dr-christian-jessen-italy-outbreak-embarrassing-bodies-siesta-a9399071.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 13, 2020, 02:36:29 PM
But isn't Boris downplaying the effects of herd immunity?   Thus, if 50 million are infected, that's 500, 000 deaths, assuming 1% rate.  Of course, it may not reach 50 million.

Also a question of beds, plus ventilator.   Irish govt is looking at sports halls, etc.

I can't reconcile the different statements made.

Vallance said (this morning):

“Our aim is to try and reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not suppress it completely; also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission, at the same time we protect those who are most vulnerable to it. Those are the key things we need to do.”

Some immunity will build up in the population anyway, as a large proportion of infected people recover. But to have herd immunity protecting the population you need between 30m and 50m (depending on infection rates) to have become immune. As you say this would also mean a huge number of deaths unless there is some way to isolate the vulnerable from infection.

Similarly, to flatten the peak by allowing infection to spread (faster than it would in a lock down) only makes sense if you want to flatten the spread by bringing forward some proportion of critical cases to use spare capacity you have now - and might not have later.

It seems to me that if they want people to have confidence in their plans they need to reveal more details of the models, inputs and outputs they are using.

btw: An article that might indicate where the idea of using herd immunity as part of the plan came from here:

 https://www.wired.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-uk-coronavirus-robert-peston

In the meantime I am glad that sports authorities and other event organizers and employers are making sensible decisions to help support social distancing off their own bat.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 13, 2020, 02:37:28 PM
Masters Golf cancelled

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/golf/51875513
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 13, 2020, 02:57:38 PM
I can't be bothered to read all the previous posts but my guess is it's a fabulous opportunity for the government to "cull" the old, sick and bewildered

Oi oi , stay lucky 😝
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 13, 2020, 03:03:55 PM
Udayana, maybe they don't want to incite fear?   Saying that X number will die is not cheery, and Boris strives to be cheery.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 13, 2020, 03:05:18 PM
There are now 798 cases in the UK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 13, 2020, 03:12:10 PM
But isn't Boris downplaying the effects of herd immunity?   Thus, if 50 million are infected, that's 500, 000 deaths, assuming 1% rate.  Of course, it may not reach 50 million.

Also a question of beds, plus ventilator.   Irish govt is looking at sports halls, etc.
ive heard most of the members of Extinction Rebellion have contracted the virus ,
That'll teach em ! 😳
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 13, 2020, 03:15:39 PM
ive heard most of the members of Extinction Rebellion have contracted the virus ,
That'll teach em ! 😳

Not a pleasant comment! >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 13, 2020, 03:21:50 PM
Udayana, maybe they don't want to incite fear?   Saying that X number will die is not cheery, and Boris strives to be cheery.

It would be less scary to know the truth - especially as we already know that in China the spread has been (temporarily maybe) stopped after 80k infections with 3k deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 13, 2020, 03:26:15 PM
ive heard most of the members of Extinction Rebellion have contracted the virus ,
That'll teach em ! 😳

Oh dear, maybe the virus is making them redundant anyway!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 13, 2020, 03:41:56 PM
It would be less scary to know the truth - especially as we already know that in China the spread has been (temporarily maybe) stopped after 80k infections with 3k deaths.

I read that there were 20 cases in China yesterday.  Oh well, ours not to reason why, ours is but to vote Brexit, and die.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 13, 2020, 03:54:38 PM
Local and mayoral elections in England have been postponed until next year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 13, 2020, 03:57:51 PM
Local and mayoral elections in England have been postponed until next year.
There will be people wondering about the U S elections.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 13, 2020, 03:59:42 PM
There will be people wondering about the U S elections.

However bad the virus becomes in the US, Trump will only postpone them if he thinks he might lose, imo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 13, 2020, 04:10:14 PM
I read that there were 20 cases in China yesterday.  Oh well, ours not to reason why, ours is but to vote Brexit, and die.

Its a big area! Once you've stopped it spreading out of control infections will continue - but hopefully better managed.

Separately, from the Guardian live stream:

Josh Halliday:

A councillor in an English village where one of the first UK cases of coronavirus was confirmed has described the government’s strategy of tackling the disease as “a crime against humanity.”

Samantha Flower, who is a member of Boris Johnson’s ruling Conservative Party and also a social care manager for Sheffield City Council, said: “I’m very concerned. They [the UK government] are saying they want as many people to get this disease to create a herd immunisation. But it won’t. My suspicion is that they don’t have the money for social care or NHS so that the weak and the old die.

“I’m saying that as a Conservative councillor and I don’t care if I get sacked. You judge a society by how they treat their vulnerable people. You judge leadership by how it treats its most vulnerable people."
 

   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 13, 2020, 04:11:21 PM
However bad the virus becomes in the US, Trump will only postpone them if he thinks he might lose, imo.
But he will be tempted by the whole idea of being the longest serving President after FDR.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 13, 2020, 04:16:37 PM
But he will be tempted by the whole idea of being the longest serving President after FDR.

He has scheduled a press conf. for 7pm (our time)... so expect another market crash?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 13, 2020, 04:23:43 PM
First virus death in Scotland.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 13, 2020, 04:58:07 PM
Left work, all a bit zombie apocalypse, going to head down the Winchester and wait for all this to blow over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 13, 2020, 05:18:57 PM
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-millions-of-britons-will-need-to-contract-covid-19-for-herd-immunity-11956793

OK, so Vallance confirms that 60% need to be infected to achieve herd immunity.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 13, 2020, 05:24:36 PM
Left work, all a bit zombie apocalypse, going to head down the Winchester and wait for all this to blow over.

May one ask what job you do?

I see the London Marathon has been postponed until October.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 13, 2020, 05:25:41 PM
And Bolsoanaro tests positive. Having had dinner with Trump


https://www.businessinsider.com/jair-bolsonaro-brazil-president-coronavirus-test-positive-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

Now seeing statements that he is not positive
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 13, 2020, 05:26:17 PM
May one ask what job you do?

I see the London Marathon has been postponed until October.

You may.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 13, 2020, 05:31:28 PM
You may.
chief stirer ..... in a paint factory?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 13, 2020, 05:35:46 PM
Left work, all a bit zombie apocalypse, going to head down the Winchester and wait for all this to blow over.
Vodka tonic ..... On the slate !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 13, 2020, 06:10:05 PM
I had a macabre laugh when I saw those lists of measures being taken by various countries, and the UK looks like an outlier,  in not closing schools, sports events, etc.  Somebody said we're a control group, wot a laaf.

I think not panicking is a good idea. Closing schools for example might be a disaster. If your child is at home but you need to go to work, what do you do with the child? You ask the grandparents to look after it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 13, 2020, 08:23:06 PM
I think not panicking is a good idea. Closing schools for example might be a disaster. If your child is at home but you need to go to work, what do you do with the child? You ask the grandparents to look after it.
I've been troubled by this post for the last hour .

I thought you said pic-nicking 😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 13, 2020, 09:27:09 PM
I've been troubled by this post for the last hour .

I thought you said pic-nicking 😂
Depends how many people are there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 13, 2020, 10:53:23 PM
Thought I was getting a cough and a sore throat this morning, but it came to nothing. Damn - i was hoping for a week off work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 13, 2020, 10:56:37 PM
Is this real, I don't know, and testing stages only begun. Some way to go yet. But if true, good news. Of course, the cancellation of the hockey season must have spurred them on.😂

https://www.narcity.com/amp/coronavirus-vaccine-made-in-saskatchewan-is-now-in-the-testing-stages?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 13, 2020, 11:02:09 PM
Thought I was getting a cough and a sore throat this morning, but it came to nothing. Damn - i was hoping for a week off work.

Three weeks back I got what I thought was influenza but looking at the symptoms I can't help think of corona. I've still got that bloody cough, sometimes so violent it's made me puke. Suppose it's too late now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 13, 2020, 11:16:06 PM
In parliament a debate is going on and all parties agree that the government should take emergency powers should the need arise in the coming days.

Even though there has been a sharp rise in the confirmed cases over here, it seems to me that it is because the authorities have been extremely efficient in working out chains of infection and chasing down those who have been exposed. Obviously easier in a country with a relatively smaller population and density.

Experts reckon that by the start of the new week we'll no longer be able to trace back chains of infection. If so, I suspect the emergency powers will be adopted by the government.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on March 14, 2020, 06:29:44 AM

What does Britain know about the Coronavirus that the rest of Europe doesn't?!

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/13/uk/uk-coronavirus-response-boris-johnson-intl-gbr/index.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 14, 2020, 08:49:16 AM
What does Britain know about the Coronavirus that the rest of Europe doesn't?!

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/13/uk/uk-coronavirus-response-boris-johnson-intl-gbr/index.html

Not 'Britain', Sriram, but a useless fuckwit of a Prime Minister who has all the leadership qualities of a plank of rotten wood, as does his counterpart in the White House.

Scotland's FM, Nicola Sturgeon, was well ahead of Johnson in realising that mass gatherings had to be stopped, and Johnson immediately had a go at her the other day for even suggesting this, and since then various organisations have of their own accord decided to take action. It seems Johnson has belatedly changed his mind, but this just further confirms that he is no leader.

I do hope the poor saps who voted Tory last year come to realise just what they have done.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 14, 2020, 09:00:16 AM
Not 'Britain', Sriram, but a useless fuckwit of a Prime Minister who has all the leadership qualities of a plank of rotten wood, as does his counterpart in the White House.

Scotland's FM, Nicola Sturgeon, was well ahead of Johnson in realising that mass gatherings had to be stopped, and Johnson immediately had a go at her the other day for even suggesting this, and since then various organisations have of their own accord decided to take action. It seems Johnson has belatedly changed his mind, but this just further confirms that he is no leader.

I do hope the poor saps who voted Tory last year come to realise just what they have done.
Measures to control the spread of the virus have to be balanced with the need to avoid panic and prevent serious economic consequences. which may be Johnson's reasoning. I don't often defend Tory PMs, but even they may sometimes get things right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 14, 2020, 09:32:24 AM
Measures to control the spread of the virus have to be balanced with the need to avoid panic and prevent serious economic consequences. which may be Johnson's reasoning. I don't often defend Tory PMs, but even they may sometimes get things right.

I'd disagree -the speed of the U-Turn, which is how it s being portrayed in the headlines of the likes of the FT and Guardian, suggest he's now running to catch-up.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/uk-to-ban-mass-gatherings-in-coronavirus-u-turn
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on March 14, 2020, 09:36:38 AM
 A wee bit 'relief' from the Bee... https://babylonbee.com/news/no-greater-love-widow-puts-last-toilet-paper-roll-in-offering-plate?fbclid=IwAR04MQUj-mL3zXotEW77ZeGfvUDDO1fVVYdPl6DxdmOm_Uo2jL-Z1r39Jrw
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 14, 2020, 09:49:43 AM
Measures to control the spread of the virus have to be balanced with the need to avoid panic and prevent serious economic consequences. which may be Johnson's reasoning. I don't often defend Tory PMs, but even they may sometimes get things right.

But they need the virus to spread to achieve herd immunity.   That's about 70-80% infection rate.   Assuming roughly a 1% death rate, you're talking 400 000 to 500 000 deaths.   I also don't get how the vulnerable are protected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 14, 2020, 10:48:44 AM
But they need the virus to spread to achieve herd immunity.   That's about 70-80% infection rate.   Assuming roughly a 1% death rate, you're talking 400 000 to 500 000 deaths.   I also don't get how the vulnerable are protected.
Presuming I am in the vulnerable group, 84 and having to take medication to avoid strokes and heart attacks, I am simply being sensible. I have most certainly not taken any panic action but am carrying on with my normal, quiet life and will obtain the assistance of taxi drivers and Tesco's assistance service if necessary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 14, 2020, 10:56:14 AM
Apart from me going to Tesco early in the morning when it isn't busy, on the days I do my shopping, my husband and I are avoiding close contact with people. Our children think this is sensible and are keeping in touch by phone, but not visiting us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 14, 2020, 11:16:25 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51887510

Apparently the Catholic churches in England and Wales are preparing to suspend Mass for the time being.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 14, 2020, 11:42:21 AM
Believe it or not I spent last evening in a bar called Korona in my local town. I'm still going to do the things I do but just be more aware of what I touch and when I wash my hands etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 14, 2020, 11:50:52 AM
Measures to control the spread of the virus have to be balanced with the need to avoid panic and prevent serious economic consequences. which may be Johnson's reasoning. I don't often defend Tory PMs, but even they may sometimes get things right.

At least they have started to take this seriously.

Stopping mass gatherings will have a limited effect and I don't think all schools need to be closed. But we need to clamp down now, put in what measures are possible to protect the vulnerable to infection, then make sure the economy can take up again.

This crisis/shambles will last at least a year, maybe two at most.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 14, 2020, 12:53:23 PM
I'd disagree -the speed of the U-Turn, which is how it s being portrayed in the headlines of the likes of the FT and Guardian, suggest he's now running to catch-up.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/uk-to-ban-mass-gatherings-in-coronavirus-u-turn

It’s would concern me if the government ere doing this under pressure from the mass hysteria that seems like o be infecting everybody rather than as a measured and scientifically justified plan.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 14, 2020, 01:03:04 PM
It’s would concern me if the government ere doing this under pressure from the mass hysteria that seems like o be infecting everybody rather than as a measured and scientifically justified plan.

Me too - my point was that Johnson is flip-flopping and has zero credibility as a leader who inspires confidence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on March 14, 2020, 01:31:16 PM
The virus seems to be particularly virulent with a certain latitude range.

Temperature may not be an issue unlike earlier theories.  A cold country like Russia has very few cases. Strange!

https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-maps-and-cases/



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on March 14, 2020, 01:47:49 PM
The virus seems to be particularly virulent with a certain latitude range.

Temperature may not be an issue unlike earlier theories.  A cold country like Russia has very few cases. Strange!

https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-maps-and-cases/

The equator?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on March 14, 2020, 02:55:53 PM

There are very few cases around the equator, in the southern hemisphere and in cold places like Russia and Canada.....though Sweden and Norway  have  higher numbers. From about 30 degrees N to about 55 degrees N perhaps.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 14, 2020, 03:10:14 PM
10 more people in the UK have died from the virus bringing the number up to 21. They all appear to be over 60s with underlying health conditions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 14, 2020, 03:35:35 PM
The arguments between locking down and herd immunity seem a bit clearer.  One of the chief arguments against the former, as in some Asian countries, is that when the lockdown is released, the epidemic starts again.   One of the points about herd immunity is that NHS is in poor shape, and cannot cope with a spike now, so delay it for months, so help the virus spread now.  Yoiks, do you feel lucky?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 14, 2020, 03:39:30 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/51888491

The Japanese PM says the Olympic Games are going ahead, he isn't going to change his mind, we shall see!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 14, 2020, 03:43:59 PM
There's not much point in banging on about herd immunity, as we can only get that if the vast majority of the population get the virus, which is exactly what we want to avoid, and which would result in hundreds of thousands of deaths. The herd immunity we read about for measles is acquired by mass immunisation, and is threatened by the anti-vax idiots, but there is no vaccine for Covid-19 yet, nor likely to be until it's all over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 14, 2020, 03:50:32 PM
There's not much point in banging on about herd immunity, as we can only get that if the vast majority of the population get the virus, which is exactly what we want to avoid, and which would result in hundreds of thousands of deaths. The herd immunity we read about for measles is acquired by mass immunisation, and is threatened by the anti-vax idiots, but there is no vaccine for Covid-19 yet, nor likely to be until it's all over.

Blimey I must lie down before the shock is too much for me, I actually agree with you. ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 14, 2020, 03:55:36 PM
Believe it or not I spent last evening in a bar called Korona in my local town. I'm still going to do the things I do but just be more aware of what I touch and when I wash my hands etc.
ad_o

I woke today with a sore throat and throbbing headache , have I been infected by the 7 pints of corona I had last night ? 🍻
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 14, 2020, 03:58:42 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/51888491

The Japanese PM says the Olympic Games are going ahead, he isn't going to change his mind, we shall see!
i bet he wins all the medals then 😷
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 14, 2020, 03:59:46 PM
ad_o

I woke today with a sore throat and throbbing headache , have I been infected by the 7 pints of corona I had last night ? 🍻
;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 14, 2020, 04:06:51 PM
i bet he wins all the medals then 😷

That goes without saying as he will be the only one taking part. ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on March 14, 2020, 04:07:48 PM
There's not much point in banging on about herd immunity, as we can only get that if the vast majority of the population get the virus, which is exactly what we want to avoid,

Nope there is no avoiding that, the vast majority will get the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 14, 2020, 04:14:37 PM
The arguments between locking down and herd immunity seem a bit clearer.  One of the chief arguments against the former, as in some Asian countries, is that when the lockdown is released, the epidemic starts again.   

True. If you have stopped or slowed the rate of spread using lockdown then you need to put into effect plans to prevent infection of the most vulnerable and release lockdown slowly such that your health service does not get overloaded by new critical cases. 

Quote
One of the points about herd immunity is that NHS is in poor shape, and cannot cope with a spike now, so delay it for months, so help the virus spread now.  Yoiks, do you feel lucky?

That makes no sense: how does letting it spread now delay the spike? What action have they taken to isolate the elderly (over 60? 65?) or otherwise vulnerable?

To reach herd immunity (assuming they are correct that we will have it after 60% of pop has been infected and recovered) will take at least 6 months .. and our health service will have crashed well before then. 

We need to see the assumptions and figures they have been working with and explanations for the plans and actions they propose.
 
Half a million elderly and vulnerable dying is approx. a doubling of annual UK deaths. So in theory we can cope with that  - but it is entirely unnecessary and unacceptable.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 14, 2020, 04:19:23 PM
There's not much point in banging on about herd immunity, as we can only get that if the vast majority of the population get the virus, which is exactly what we want to avoid, and which would result in hundreds of thousands of deaths. The herd immunity we read about for measles is acquired by mass immunisation, and is threatened by the anti-vax idiots, but there is no vaccine for Covid-19 yet, nor likely to be until it's all over.

I thought it's the reverse.  They want you to get the virus, but not with a peak, which the NHS could not cope with.  Thus leaving schools open, helps the spread.  The problem with a lockdown is that immunity doesn't spread, so you get fresh epidemics.  But Udayana's point stands, you risk half a million dead, and how do you protect the old? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 14, 2020, 04:34:54 PM
Nope there is no avoiding that, the vast majority will get the virus.
Nonsense - you can't know that, and I don't think any experts are saying that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 14, 2020, 04:48:20 PM
Some epidemiologists are saying that the virus is uncontrollable.   Check out Adam Kucharski, twitter thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 14, 2020, 04:52:40 PM
Some epidemiologists are saying that the virus is uncontrollable.   Check out Adam Kucharski, twitter thread.
There are always scaremongers, even among the experts. At the height of the BSE crisis, one expert, notorious fro always preseting the wort-case scenario as the most likely outcome, said that we could lose as entire generation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 14, 2020, 04:56:49 PM
As from Monday the US is extending its travel ban for non US citizens to the UK and Ireland.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 14, 2020, 04:59:36 PM
I've looked up Adam Kurcharski on Twitter, and he doesn't seem to be saying what you say he's saying. https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238821515526897664
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 14, 2020, 05:11:00 PM
Trump says he has taken the test for the virus, having been is close contact with someone who tested positive.  He will have to wait 48hrs for the result, he says he isn't going to self-isolate as he is feeling well! YE GODS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 14, 2020, 05:41:47 PM
Littleroses ;
Listening to the news so you don't have to !  ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 14, 2020, 05:46:27 PM
ad_o

I woke today with a sore throat and throbbing headache , have I been infected by the 7 pints of corona I had last night ? 🍻

Ha ha!😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 14, 2020, 05:49:55 PM
Nonsense - you can't know that, and I don't think any experts are saying that.

Indeed. No ine can. I get annoyed at the scaremongering.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 14, 2020, 06:28:01 PM
Been shopping


https://www.amazon.com/Bubonic-Plague-Doctor-Costume-Headsock/dp/B00B8NPCY2?ref_=fsclp_pl_dp_1
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on March 14, 2020, 06:57:35 PM
There are always scaremongers, even among the experts. At the height of the BSE crisis, one expert, notorious fro always preseting the wort-case scenario as the most likely outcome, said that we could lose as entire generation.

COVID 19 and BSE are not comparable. BSE was preventable - it was a consequence of cattle food preparation and was transmitted to humans as a result of poor butchery techniques..  COVID 19 in a virus at loose in the environment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 14, 2020, 07:44:03 PM
I’m sitting in a restaurant in Ouistreham waiting for the ferry to Portsmouth and I’ve just found out that France is shutting down at midnight.

Madness
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 14, 2020, 07:47:51 PM
I’m sitting in a restaurant in Ouistreham waiting for the ferry to Portsmouth and I’ve just found out that France is shutting down at midnight.

Madness
so your take is that the UK govt are following expert instruction, but France isn't? How can you tell the difference?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 14, 2020, 08:05:59 PM
so your take is that the UK govt are following expert instruction, but France isn't? How can you tell the difference?
cos one gvmt doesn't know what it's doing ....
and the other's French 😱
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 14, 2020, 08:27:25 PM
Reminds me of when I cooked rice on a gas stove in Calais, storms having delayed the ferry. Had to strain it through a T-shirt.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on March 14, 2020, 08:31:01 PM
Nonsense - you can't know that, and I don't think any experts are saying that.

I just got that impression from watching the news. I don't think it is scaremongering, this is what the government is trying to do:-

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/39B6/production/_111247741_controlled_uncontrolled_transmission_v02_640-nc.png

They are talking about lowering the peak, most people will still get the virus.

More drastic measures might mean you flatten that peak even more but you will end up in a worse situation by next winter.

Watch the Video.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51632801
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 14, 2020, 08:54:41 PM
Peston talking about quarantine for all over 70s for 4 months.   I thought this was a spoof.  On twitter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 14, 2020, 10:00:12 PM
I just got that impression from watching the news. I don't think it is scaremongering, this is what the government is trying to do:-

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/39B6/production/_111247741_controlled_uncontrolled_transmission_v02_640-nc.png

Sorry, that diagram is just plain wrong. That is not what they want or what will happen if the plan works.

Quote

They are talking about lowering the peak, most people will still get the virus.

More drastic measures might mean you flatten that peak even more but you will end up in a worse situation by next winter.

Watch the Video.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51632801

The reason for delaying control measures is to use as much of the free capacity that they have earlier - before the peak. They also think that, as some people will have had the virus and recovered, some people will have immunity by the time of the peak - so it will be flattened.

The risks are that by the time they do impose heavier controls the numbers of infected are rising so fast that they don't work and we just end up with an uncontrolled peak. Also, the number of immune people by that time is not enough to do any flattening.

The only way to avoid those risks (imo) is to quarantine (protect) vulnerable people from infection - that can only be done if there is time to cocoon them (or whatever system is best) before infections take off uncontrollably. Stronger controls earlier can buy that time.



 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 14, 2020, 10:58:22 PM
COVID 19 and BSE are not comparable. BSE was preventable - it was a consequence of cattle food preparation and was transmitted to humans as a result of poor butchery techniques..  COVID 19 in a virus at loose in the environment.
Quite, but that was not the point of my typo-infested post.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 15, 2020, 12:29:27 AM
COVID 19 and BSE are not comparable. BSE was preventable - it was a consequence of cattle food preparation and was transmitted to humans as a result of poor butchery techniques..  COVID 19 in a virus at loose in the environment.
 

Covid 19 could have been prevented, maybe, if the Chinese were willing to change their eating habits.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on March 15, 2020, 06:36:59 AM
Sorry, that diagram is just plain wrong. That is not what they want or what will happen if the plan works.

That diagram was produced by the BBC after attending a press conference presented by chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance. As far as I can tell it is a copy of the diagram used by Vallance in the presentation.

Quote
The reason for delaying control measures is to use as much of the free capacity that they have earlier - before the peak. They also think that, as some people will have had the virus and recovered, some people will have immunity by the time of the peak - so it will be flattened.

Where exactly does Vallance say that?

Quote
The risks are that by the time they do impose heavier controls the numbers of infected are rising so fast that they don't work and we just end up with an uncontrolled peak. Also, the number of immune people by that time is not enough to do any flattening.

Again where are you getting this from?

Quote
The only way to avoid those risks (imo) is to quarantine (protect) vulnerable people from infection - that can only be done if there is time to cocoon them (or whatever system is best) before infections take off uncontrollably. Stronger controls earlier can buy that time.

As Vallance stated there is a risk if you do this too early.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 15, 2020, 08:18:15 AM
Matt Hancock on the Government's response: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/14/must-do-everything-power-protect-lives/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_iosshare_At9w8jYPvkKQ&fbclid=IwAR1MrFMm993qU-k8x-Q207oaoMRSxTJRwquTEAhQdtQ2TNW9LEdVOlFjStk
As I wrote in reply to the friend's FB post which gave the link:

"We must all do everything in our power to protect lives" - well, duh! In other news, the Vatican has confirmed that Pope Francis remains a Catholic. Hoggart's law, invented by the late Simon, applies: if the opposite of a politician's statement is obvious nonsense, the statement wasn't worth making.
Glad, though, that he affirms that "herd immunity" is not part of the government's strategy. There's been a lot of silly talk about it, but the only way it could be achieved would be for the vast majority of the population to get Covid-19, with tens or hundreds of thousands of deaths, which is obviously what we want to avoid, and would represent a disastrous failure. We hear of herd immunity in relation to measles, but that's achieved by immunisation, and is threatened by the anti-vax idiots. There is no vaccine for Covid-19 yet, and not likely to be for some time, as I understand it.

So let's have no more nonsense about "herd immunity" as a possible solution.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 15, 2020, 08:23:36 AM
Trump has supposedly tested negative for the virus, but as lies are second to that man I wonder if it is true?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 15, 2020, 09:03:44 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51895873

Within weeks the over 70s are likely to be required to self-isolate in their own homes, without visitors, essential supplies being delivered to their doorsteps. I am really looking forward to that.  :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 15, 2020, 09:07:10 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51895873

Within weeks the over 70s are likely to be required to self-isolate in their own homes, without visitors, essential supplies being delivered to their doorsteps. I am really looking forward to that.  :o
Don't worry - you're not over 70.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 15, 2020, 09:07:45 AM
Don't worry - you're not over 70.

I wish
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 15, 2020, 09:11:08 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51895873

Within weeks the over 70s are likely to be required to self-isolate in their own homes, without visitors, essential supplies being delivered to their doorsteps. I am really looking forward to that.  :o
Think this is likely sometime in the next few days rather than weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 15, 2020, 10:10:00 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51895873

Within weeks the over 70s are likely to be required to self-isolate in their own homes, without visitors, essential supplies being delivered to their doorsteps. I am really looking forward to that.  :o

A nightmare.   We have an allotment, and a house in Norfolk.   So we just give them up?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ekim on March 15, 2020, 10:31:54 AM
Think this is likely sometime in the next few days rather than weeks.
Time to panic buy then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 15, 2020, 10:33:50 AM
Went to visit my mother yesterday as I suspected that the self isolation instructions for the elderly are going to be announced. One of the very few times,  I have not given  her a kiss and a hug, we elbow bumped. The train that I normally catch to go and see her seemed busier than usual, as did the centre of my city, though I suspect some were approaching it in  fin de siècle manner and having a last out before we are all stuck mainly inside.


It seems odd that this has happened both slow and fast, but I am worried that we seem unprepared for what is a highly predictable scenario that must have been modelled thousands and thousands of times.

One worry is that we still seen to be completely disunited, and that the response has had very little coordination. The decisions to shut down sports events has been left to individual bodies, and the decisions about borders in the EU taken by the individual countries with no obvious coordination.

Along the road from me, a lovely little bakery opened yesterday, for the first time, and seems to have done great trade. I worry that it  will end up shutting sometime soon because of the virus and never reopen.

In addition we have people thinking that the UK govt is planning some cull of the elderly as a plot, and individuals building mountains of loo roll and hand gel. I would like to see much more movement to a UK govt of national unity, and a suspension of such distractions as Brexit or indeed a leadership contest. I suspect our view if how the UK pulled together during WW2 is a tad rosy; there were profiteers then, but it feels more zombie apocalypse. The UK govt needs to start avoiding anonymous briefings and be much clearer in statements. The one last week where we were meant to be 4 weeks behind Italy when Italy wasn't even 4 weeks into the crisis undermines the need for the govt to be believed.

Given the timings I expect us to have effective lock down by Friday at latest, and to be in the sane place as Italy by next Sunday. Everyone on here seems like a decent person, so I expect where possible you will be looking out for friends, relatives and neighbours. I would be interested in knowing what actions you take that you feel work so that we can use best practice in the next few weeks.

In the immortal words of Sgt Phil Esterhaus 'Let's be careful out there'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 15, 2020, 10:35:53 AM
so your take is that the UK govt are following expert instruction, but France isn't? How can you tell the difference?

The French are panicking. They've shut down everything. Either most people will be in total poverty in a few months or they will be ignoring the government.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 15, 2020, 10:40:51 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51895873

Within weeks the over 70s are likely to be required to self-isolate in their own homes, without visitors, essential supplies being delivered to their doorsteps. I am really looking forward to that.  :o

I know two over 70 people who will ignore the self isolation thing. They are both pretty fit and healthy for their age and they can't see any reason why they should make themselves miserable for their own protection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 15, 2020, 10:50:46 AM
The French are panicking. They've shut down everything. Either most people will be in total poverty in a few months or they will be ignoring the government.
Meanwhile the UK govt are making policy announcements via anonymous sources in Robert Peston's blog. How can you be sure that you thinking the UK govt are being sensible and following expert advice and the French aren't is nog just because the UK govt are doing what you think is correct?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 15, 2020, 10:51:46 AM
I doubt whether the Salmond trial will avoid be cancelled.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 15, 2020, 11:00:36 AM
I know two over 70 people who will ignore the self isolation thing. They are both pretty fit and healthy for their age and they can't see any reason why they should make themselves miserable for their own protection.
I'm going out ... I may be some time !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 15, 2020, 11:03:14 AM
Went into town last night to the pub and it was like a bloody ghost town.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on March 15, 2020, 11:13:32 AM
So let's have no more nonsense about "herd immunity" as a possible solution.

It is an outcome not a solution.

First epidemic then endemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 15, 2020, 11:14:52 AM
Meanwhile the UK govt are making policy announcements via anonymous sources in Robert Peston's blog.
No they are not.

Quote
How can you be sure that you thinking the UK govt are being sensible and following expert advice and the French aren't is nog just because the UK govt are doing what you think is correct?

Why are you so sure that the British are doing the wrong thing? Are you sure it's not just because you despise the government so much you refuse to believe they are capable of doing anything right?

Look, I am not sure if Britain's approach is the best way of containing the virus, but my outlook is not focused just on the virus. I'm looking at the effect on the World. If the French, Spanish and Italian measures carry on for more than a few weeks, their economies will be destroyed. That, in itself, will kill people and otherwise destroy the lives of many others.

This crisis isn't just about stopping the virus, it's about having a world worth living in after it's over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 15, 2020, 11:17:21 AM
It is an outcome not a solution.

First epidemic then endemic.

I'm not convinced that herd immunity would work anyway. Nobody has yet said that you can't catch it more than once. After all, a vast proportion of the population has caught flu, and there's no herd immunity to that.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 15, 2020, 11:20:40 AM
No they are not.

Why are you so sure that the British are doing the wrong thing? Are you sure it's not just because you despise the government so much you refuse to believe they are capable of doing anything right?

Look, I am not sure if Britain's approach is the best way of containing the virus, but my outlook is not focused just on the virus. I'm looking at the effect on the World. If the French, Spanish and Italian measures carry on for more than a few weeks, their economies will be destroyed. That, in itself, will kill people and otherwise destroy the lives of many others.

This crisis isn't just about stopping the virus, it's about having a world worth living in after it's over.

I'm not sure they are doing the wrong thing. I take it you think Peston's reference to a govt source with regards to care homes in his blog is a lie?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 15, 2020, 11:32:17 AM
This looks like confirmation of an earlier story that Trump was attempting to secure a potential vaccine being developed in Germany for exclusive USA use.

Quote
German government now confirming this report in Welt am Sonntag: Trump administration tried to poach German virologists working on Corona vaccine in Tübingen and offered large sums so it would be exclusive to US https://t.co/DKWnuMHr9p

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 15, 2020, 11:38:01 AM
Aside from the medical risks and attempts to control the spread of the virus, should restrictions such as requiring the over 70s to isolate be introduced then how could these be effectively enforced?

We, both the population and government, have no practical experience to fall back on which is why effective leadership is important if people are to both police and behave themselves, and especially if it got to a stage where rationing was needed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 15, 2020, 11:38:42 AM
This looks like confirmation of an earlier story that Trump was attempting to secure a potential vaccine being developed in Germany for exclusive USA use.

If that is correct, it just goes to underline what a nasty scumbag that man is. >:( >:( >:( >:( >:( 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 15, 2020, 11:41:15 AM
Aside from the medical risks and attempts to control the spread of the virus, should restrictions such as requiring the over 70s to isolate be introduced then how could these be effectively enforced?

We, both the population and government, have no practical experience to fall back on which is why effective leadership is important if people are to both police and behave themselves, and especially if it got to a stage where rationing was needed.

WW3, but the whole world fighting the virus not each other. :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 15, 2020, 11:43:34 AM
I'm not sure they are doing the wrong thing.
So neither of us are sure. \At least that's one thing we can be sure about.
Quote
I take it you think Peston's reference to a govt source with regards to care homes in his blog is a lie?
You characterised an anonymous source as "the UK govt are making policy announcements". That's clearly false. When the government makes a policy announcement, it will hold a press conference and issue an official (not anonymous) statement. What Peston got hold of is not a policy announcement but a leak.

It may be that the government really is going to do this and this is a way to soften the blow when it arrives or it may be the government is testing the water to see if it is a measure we will put up with. Or it may be that they heard about the "kill off all the old people who are a burden to the state" conspiracy theory and therefore they have decided to do something to counter that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 15, 2020, 11:46:12 AM
So neither of us are sure. \At least that's one thing we can be sure about.You characterised an anonymous source as "the UK govt are making policy announcements". That's clearly false. When the government makes a policy announcement, it will hold a press conference and issue an official (not anonymous) statement. What Peston got hold of is not a policy announcement but a leak.

It may be that the government really is going to do this and this is a way to soften the blow when it arrives or it may be the government is testing the water to see if it is a measure we will put up with. Or it may be that they heard about the "kill off all the old people who are a burden to the state" conspiracy theory and therefore they have decided to do something to counter that.
Govt sources are not leaks. They are the govt using the anonymous briefing to float ideas. If it was a leak, the govt should/would be trying to find out who. They aren't
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 15, 2020, 11:57:16 AM
Govt sources are not leaks.
Clearly I have been watching too much Yes Prime Minister.

Quote
If it was a leak, the govt should/would be trying to find out who. They aren't
Not if they were the source of the leak. In any case, whether you call it a leak or an anonymous briefing, it is not a policy announcement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on March 15, 2020, 12:01:39 PM
I'm not convinced that herd immunity would work anyway. Nobody has yet said that you can't catch it more than once. After all, a vast proportion of the population has caught flu, and there's no herd immunity to that.

I thought as you get a dose of one of the flu's you then become immune for a time. If enough people lose the immunity it spreads.

Quote
Nobody has yet said that you can't catch it more than once.

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/coronavirus-immunity-reinfection-get-covid-19-twice-sick-spread-relapse-a9400691.html
According to Li QinGyuan, director of pneumonia prevention and treatment at China Japan Friendship Hospital in Beijing, those who have been infected with Covid-19 develop a protective antibody - but it isn’t clear how long the protection lasts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 15, 2020, 12:05:43 PM
I thought as you get a dose of one of the flu's you then become immune for a time. If enough people lose the immunity it spreads.
As I understand it, the problem is that there are many different strains of flu and new ones keep mutating all the time. The same might apply to coronavirus.

Or it might not, in which case, those of us who survive this outbreak need not worry about it again for a while.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 15, 2020, 12:12:28 PM
That diagram was produced by the BBC after attending a press conference presented by chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance. As far as I can tell it is a copy of the diagram used by Vallance in the presentation.

So what figures or model was used to produce it? What measures will be in place to prevent the sharp rise in infections and hospitalisations so that we get the slow gentle and limited rise with a later peak? 

Quote
Where exactly does Vallance say that?

With a rapid high rise, the capacity is almost immediately overwhelmed, so delaying tactics must be used allowing people to be treated before the (delayed) peak. Vallance himself mentions building up "herd immunity".

Quote
 
Again where are you getting this from?

That is what happened in China, before they went on lockdown. And why Italy, Spain, France are in lockdown.

Quote

As Vallance stated there is a risk if you do this too early.

There is, that is why you need to plan for what happens as controls are lifted or otherwise released.

The closest to the desired Vallance chart is this from South Korea:
https://www.statista.com/chart/21095/covid-19-infections-in-south-korea/

Which they achieved without lockdown despite the large initial outbreak. It's down to good management, testing and open communications from the govt.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 15, 2020, 12:20:59 PM
I know two over 70 people who will ignore the self isolation thing. They are both pretty fit and healthy for their age and they can't see any reason why they should make themselves miserable for their own protection.

Of-course that is entirely their own choice. Presumably they can rely on private health insurance to cover them if they get ill.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 15, 2020, 12:44:39 PM
Aside from the medical risks and attempts to control the spread of the virus, should restrictions such as requiring the over 70s to isolate be introduced then how could these be effectively enforced?

We, both the population and government, have no practical experience to fall back on which is why effective leadership is important if people are to both police and behave themselves, and especially if it got to a stage where rationing was needed.

Surely if Govt. communications and responsible media effectively explained what was needed and why, we wouldn't need to "enforce" these behaviours?

The economy, supplies, and so on will come under pressure because of what happens in China, US, Europe  and so on. But what happens here is entirely down to UK choices: Protect as many vulnerable people as possible from becoming infected, providing whatever help they need,  and life can go on normally and the whole thing will be over sometime next year.

If it is a "free for all" it will cause misery for years to come.

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 15, 2020, 01:07:48 PM
Was looking at supermarket order  and earliest date we could get is 3rd of April. Also wondering if supermarkets will reverse their policy on plastic bags not being used in order to reduce contact at deliveries
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 15, 2020, 01:17:27 PM
It is an outcome not a solution.

First epidemic then endemic.
Yes, quite - but some people, on here and elsewhere, have been suggesting that herd immunity is something to be aimed at. We can't have that without an apocalyptic epidemic of 1918-19 flu proportions or worse, unless a vaccine is developed, manufactured, and used for a mass immunisation in time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 15, 2020, 01:22:52 PM
Went to the local bird reserve, expecting a ghost town, but it was completely jammed, partly because they have a cafe.   My wife thought it was fin de siecle, or eat drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we d-d-d don't know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 15, 2020, 01:32:02 PM
Went to the local bird reserve, expecting a ghost town, but it was completely jammed, partly because they have a cafe.   My wife thought it was fin de siecle, or eat drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we d-d-d don't know.
Definitely the feeling I got yesterday in Glasgow. Thinking I will pop out to my local this afternoon and bid it farewell for the meantime
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 15, 2020, 01:52:25 PM
Wondering if there will be any long term effects of this. Might we see less air travel? Will we see labour rights change? Will we see more preparedness and coordination?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 15, 2020, 02:01:05 PM
An alternative to shaking hands at the peace in church services? It's Hindu, not Christian, but I've always thought it charming and elegant.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Namaste
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 15, 2020, 02:09:52 PM
An alternative to shaking hands at the peace in church services? It's Hindu, not Christian, but I've always thought it charming and elegant.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Namaste
Agree though the question is how many church services we will have.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 15, 2020, 02:16:13 PM
Given the need to pick teams, cannot see the Olympics going ahead at the current time planned.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 15, 2020, 02:19:07 PM
Agree though the question is how many church services we will have.
As long as pubs and restaurants are still open, I don't see why churches shouldn't be, with suitable precautions. My church, starting today, is using wafers only at communion ("communion in one kind", officially still valid), using a hand-action instead of shaking hands at the peace, asking people to put their contribution on a plate at the end instead of passing round a bag, not using the tiresome rattly-shaky things they miscall musical instruments (thank heavens), and not having refreshments afterwards. I think that's more than enough precautions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 15, 2020, 02:20:24 PM
Given the need to pick teams, cannot see the Olympics going ahead at the current time planned.
Especially not in Japan, close to China. Maybe postpone it until next year?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 15, 2020, 02:23:29 PM
Wondering if there will be any long term effects of this. Might we see less air travel? Will we see labour rights change? Will we see more preparedness and coordination?

I'd be happy even if it only resulted in the Chinese stopped using wild and/or endangered animals for food or in, so-called, traditional Chinese medicine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 15, 2020, 02:26:44 PM
An alternative to shaking hands at the peace in church services? It's Hindu, not Christian, but I've always thought it charming and elegant.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Namaste

There's also Indian alternatives if you can't find any toilet paper.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 15, 2020, 02:29:04 PM
There's also Indian alternatives if you can't find any toilet paper.
  :o  ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 15, 2020, 03:05:39 PM
Just as well I did pop out to see farewell to my local. Shutting at 5pm for foreseeable future.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 15, 2020, 03:07:13 PM
As long as pubs and restaurants are still open, I don't see why churches shouldn't be, with suitable precautions. My church, starting today, is using wafers only at communion ("communion in one kind", officially still valid), using a hand-action instead of shaking hands at the peace, asking people to put their contribution on a plate at the end instead of passing round a bag, not using the tiresome rattly-shaky things they miscall musical instruments (thank heavens), and not having refreshments afterwards. I think that's more than enough precautions.
But how long will they remain open, and given the numbers of at risk people who might attend a service, then there is another factor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 15, 2020, 03:07:25 PM
Of-course that is entirely their own choice.
Do you approve of effectively putting over 70's under house arrest?

Quote
Presumably they can rely on private health insurance to cover them if they get ill.
We have the NHS to which they have been contributing all their lives. Why should they rely on private health insurance?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 15, 2020, 03:42:45 PM
As regards the policy of all over 70's being routinely restricted at some point, as attributed to Health Secretary for England & Wales, it seems the Scottish Government won't be going down this route.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51898288
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 15, 2020, 03:47:19 PM
Do you approve of effectively putting over 70's under house arrest?

Of-course not. As I said, what they do is their own choice.
 
Quote
We have the NHS to which they have been contributing all their lives. Why should they rely on private health insurance?

The NHS will do their best. But, as each person admitted with covid-19 will occupy a bed for c 15-20 days before recovery or death, they will run out of beds very quickly.

What is in place to avoid what happened in Italy?

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 15, 2020, 03:50:20 PM
Of-course not. As I said, what they do is their own choice.
 
The NHS will do their best. But, as each person admitted with covid-19 will occupy a bed for c 15-20 days before recovery or death, they will run out of beds very quickly.

What is in place to avoid what happened in Italy?
Buying up beds from the private sector at great cost it would appear.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 15, 2020, 03:51:24 PM
My old man was a binman. I read this thread and thought of him and my immense pride in him.


https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1238682500085338112.html?fbclid=IwAR0bhf5miJXTTO-hIEC32_OYhf09oWMmLQWHGEwg7X3yDiFVFpXxO6wAGWY
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 15, 2020, 03:58:32 PM
I am a little baffled by the whole idea that give  we have been watching the slow spread of a respiratory disease we have the UK health secretary openly admitting that we have done effectively nothing  over the number of respirators in the last 2 months, and that this hasn't been being chased by the Scottish govt either
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 15, 2020, 04:13:20 PM
Amazingly this is not satire. And is why satire is dead


https://metro.co.uk/2020/02/28/liam-gallagher-thought-coronavirus-house-just-hot-confusing-scary-12321292/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 15, 2020, 04:42:29 PM
The UK death toll is now 35!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 15, 2020, 04:45:43 PM
As long as pubs and restaurants are still open, I don't see why churches shouldn't be, with suitable precautions. My church, starting today, is using wafers only at communion ("communion in one kind", officially still valid), using a hand-action instead of shaking hands at the peace, asking people to put their contribution on a plate at the end instead of passing round a bag, not using the tiresome rattly-shaky things they miscall musical instruments (thank heavens), and not having refreshments afterwards. I think that's more than enough precautions.
you people are obviousely not praying hard enough !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 15, 2020, 04:49:26 PM
Amazingly this is not satire. And is why satire is dead


https://metro.co.uk/2020/02/28/liam-gallagher-thought-coronavirus-house-just-hot-confusing-scary-12321292/
anyway , I've stopped watching Cruising With Jane Macdonald now, just to be safe!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on March 15, 2020, 05:05:42 PM
As regards the policy of all over 70's being routinely restricted at some point, as attributed to Health Secretary for England & Wales, it seems the Scottish Government won't be going down this route.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51898288

Routinely restricted?

I think the policy is to advise over 70's to self-isolate, mainly due to the death rate being around 8% for that age group.

Don't know if this data is valid:-
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 15, 2020, 05:22:22 PM
Routinely restricted?

I think the policy is to advise over 70's to self-isolate, mainly due to the death rate being around 8% for that age group.

Don't know if this data is valid:-
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

'But Dr Catherine Calderwood insisted over-70s would not be asked to isolate themselves unless they were ill.'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 15, 2020, 05:51:45 PM
Routinely restricted?

I think the policy is to advise over 70's to self-isolate, mainly due to the death rate being around 8% for that age group.

That is the policy that is being widely reported as being advanced by Hancock, where the point I was making is that this approach isn't, as yet anyway, being advanced by the Scottish Government (Health is devolved to Holyrood).

Quote
Every Briton over the age of 70 will be told "within the coming weeks" to stay at home for an extended period to shield them from coronavirus, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has said....

The Scottish government has set out its interpretation of the strategy, saying it had no plans to isolate the elderly, but would instead "ask them to reduce social contact".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51895873



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 15, 2020, 06:25:58 PM
That changes things for me, as the Scottish advice is backed up by medical knowledge.   I am curious to see how the English advice is phrased, so will it be a legal requirement, or advice?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on March 15, 2020, 07:38:50 PM
That changes things for me, as the Scottish advice is backed up by medical knowledge.

The English advice is not backed up by medical knowledge?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 15, 2020, 08:26:47 PM
'But Dr Catherine Calderwood insisted over-70s would not be asked to isolate themselves unless they were ill.'

Which would be no different to the advice given to everybody.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 15, 2020, 09:21:50 PM
All pubs to be shut in the Irish Republic on St Paddy's day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 15, 2020, 09:32:35 PM
If this is even just half-right it is worrying.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 15, 2020, 09:34:16 PM
All pubs to be shut in the Irish Republic on St Paddy's day.
Bloody hell - thins must be serious!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 16, 2020, 07:07:39 AM
If this is even just half-right it is worrying.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised
It’s not the worst case scenario. The worst case scenario is that the virus is with us forever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 16, 2020, 07:14:53 AM
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-confirms-that-donald-trump-tried-to-buy-firm-working-on-coronavirus-vaccine/

Not sure if this or the Trump thread is the best place for this.

I’ve only seen it reported in three places so far, so it might not be true. But  it says Trump tried to buy a German company developing a vaccine exclusively for use by the USA.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 16, 2020, 08:01:18 AM
It’s not the worst case scenario. The worst case scenario is that the virus is with us forever.
Ithink they're assuming that it will be - but by then there'll be a vaccine, and we'll be routinely vaccinated, as we are now with flu, so it's not as bad as it sounds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on March 16, 2020, 08:23:44 AM
The historical precedent as far as I can see for the promotion of herd immunity is Vlad the Impaler and his unique border policy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on March 16, 2020, 08:29:15 AM
If this is even just half-right it is worrying.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised
In view of this I have moved from Touching cloth to following through.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 16, 2020, 08:31:23 AM
Good heavens - you're back! ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on March 16, 2020, 08:47:15 AM
It’s not the worst case scenario. The worst case scenario is that the virus is with us forever.
It was announced as the worst case scenario....the one that would happen if they didn't put their plan in action.

If this is what is going to happen what does that tell us about the plan and how does the plan promoting herd immunity fit in?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 16, 2020, 09:06:42 AM
According to Matt Hancock, herd immunity is not part of the official strategy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 16, 2020, 10:17:40 AM
From The BBC's rolling news:

'The state-run Global Times has reported about a petition on the White House website urging the US government to release more information on the suspension of an infectious disease research lab under the Pentagon.

The Global Times noted that Chinese internet users and experts are calling for more information on whether The Fort Detrick laboratory was linked to the novel coronavirus, citing coincidental events between the lab’s closure and the outbreak of Covid-19.

It noted many English-language news reports about the closure of Fort Detrick were deleted recently, raising “suspicions over the lab's ‘relationship’ with the novel coronavirus”.

This is the latest in a series of remarks by Chinese diplomats and the state media fuelling a theory that the virus did not originate in China, but was only found there.

Last week, the official Xinhua news agency claimed that the epidemic was first reported in China but “that does not mean it necessarily originated in China”.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian has even tweeted that “it might be US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan'


I suspect that we will have a lot of conspiracy theory govt for a while.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 16, 2020, 11:18:23 AM
Seeing a lot of chatter from people in the UK saying they think that they had coronavirus before or around Christmas. While I doubt that this is the case, it shows the general lack of trust of the official statements.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 16, 2020, 11:23:55 AM
What I want to know is, where are all the coronavirus conspiracy theories on social media? There should be dozens by now. I suspect the Illuminati are taking them down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 16, 2020, 11:33:43 AM
Seeing a lot of chatter from people in the UK saying they think that they had coronavirus before or around Christmas. While I doubt that this is the case, it shows the general lack of trust of the official statements.
i think you may be overestimating the level of intelligence in the general population .
( if listening to radio phone-in shows are anything to go by)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on March 16, 2020, 11:44:15 AM
According to Matt Hancock, herd immunity is not part of the official strategy.
The removal of mass testing and tracking would be a feature of a herd immunity strategy though as would a focus on treatment of the acutely ill concommitant with suspension of mass testing. Although I prefer the backfired policy theory on that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 16, 2020, 11:55:23 AM
Seeing a lot of chatter from people in the UK saying they think that they had coronavirus before or around Christmas. While I doubt that this is the case, it shows the general lack of trust of the official statements.

It's straw clutching. "I got it but survived" is a more palatable thought than "I might get it and die". In the first week of January I had a virus whose symptoms more or less match coronavirus and my parents both had something like it in February. Of course in all these cases, it could be coronavirus but probably not the current strain. There's a reason for the 19 in COVID 19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 16, 2020, 12:01:17 PM
Here in Wales only the most symptomatic will be tested for the virus.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51905439
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 16, 2020, 12:15:20 PM
Removal of free tv licences for over 75s delayed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-51911065
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 16, 2020, 12:32:23 PM
Removal of free tv licences for over 75s delayed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-51911065

Fair enough, the Government has much more important things on which to spend its money like NHS at this time of crisis. Besides which, I don't see why the over 75s should have a free TV licence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 16, 2020, 12:33:42 PM
Fair enough, the Government has much more important things on which to spend its money like NHS at this time of crisis. Besides which, I don't see why the over 75s should have a free TV licence.
It's the BBC not the govt.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 16, 2020, 12:37:30 PM
Local corner shop has loo rolls, pasta, paracetamol, etc., whereas the supermarket looks like a hurricane has swept through it.  But the local guy is rationing people, very sensible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 16, 2020, 12:40:58 PM
It's the BBC not the govt.

But the Government was does put money towards the suspension of the licence fee for the over 75s, apparently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 16, 2020, 12:51:52 PM
So it looks like today the government here is going to announce that all schools are going to close. 31 new confirmed cases today which takes the total here to 272.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 16, 2020, 01:09:00 PM
But the Government was does put money towards the suspension of the licence fee for the over 75s, apparently.
Used to but it had been phased out gradually and as from start if June completely. This is a BBC action.


From the article:

'The BBC confirmed it will foot the cost of the two-month delay.'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 16, 2020, 01:40:09 PM
Fair enough, the Government has much more important things on which to spend its money like NHS at this time of crisis. Besides which, I don't see why the over 75s should have a free TV licence.
REMOVAL of free tv licence delayed. At least read a post properly before spouting your usual inanities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 16, 2020, 01:46:53 PM
REMOVAL of free tv licence delayed. At least read a post properly before spouting your usual inanities.

Talking about yourself again! I don't think the TV licence should be free for anyone!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 16, 2020, 02:18:38 PM
Talking about yourself again! I don't think the TV licence should be free for anyone!

Why?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 16, 2020, 02:26:43 PM
Why?

A complete waste of money, imo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 16, 2020, 02:47:35 PM
Covid 19 suspiciously involved in suspending Line of Duty filming


'In light of the spread of Covid-19, after much consideration,

@worldprods

are suspending filming of #LineofDuty S6 with the support of the BBC. We will keep you updated with further developments in due course. Thank you.'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 16, 2020, 02:52:40 PM
Went to supermarket, no bread, spuds, or veg.  I got some chips.   Is this how it's going to continue?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 16, 2020, 03:36:16 PM
I went to the supermarket before 7am this morning thinking that there would be hardly anyone else there as is usual at that time of the morning, but not so! It was like it would be just before Christmas, heaving! However, apart from anti-bac products the shelves weren't too badly stocked, there were even toilet rolls, but they were flying off the shelves, there still aren't any restrictions on the number people can buy at our local Tesco, which very silly! >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 16, 2020, 03:45:33 PM
I went to the supermarket before 7am this morning thinking that there would be hardly anyone else there as is usual at that time of the morning, but not so! It was like it would be just before Christmas, heaving! However, apart from anti-bac products the shelves weren't too badly stocked, there were even toilet rolls, but they were flying off the shelves, there still aren't any restrictions on the number people can buy at our local Tesco, which very silly! >:(
Lr
The time to worry is when the turkeys and chickens start flying off the shelves 😷
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 16, 2020, 03:55:37 PM
The government have adopted emergency powers and the schools, public buildings, and borders are closing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 16, 2020, 04:06:14 PM
The government have adopted emergency powers and the schools, public buildings, and borders are closing.
No matter the justification, those first six words put a chill in my heart.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 16, 2020, 04:15:14 PM
No matter the justification, those first six words put a chill in my heart.

I can understand that feeling. Last time here was during WWII. I think they are doing it properly but it would be better if it didn't have to come to this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 16, 2020, 04:43:03 PM
The government have adopted emergency powers and the schools, public buildings, and borders are closing.

Public gatherings of more than 10 people are now banned, and the over 70's are now obligated, to the best of their ability, to self-isolate. There most probably will be more measures to come, such as internal travel restrictions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 16, 2020, 06:06:48 PM


Good for Leyton Orient - whoever is in charge of their social media will be being the subject of a big transfer move

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51906574
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on March 17, 2020, 05:12:18 AM


Do some deep breathing exercises. That will strengthen your lungs and respiratory tract and also boost your immune system.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVBrqO77HYI
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2020, 07:52:48 AM
Not understanding the position on pubs - it seems to put them in the worst position of not being able to claim insurance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 17, 2020, 08:36:40 AM
Not understanding the position on pubs - it seems to put them in the worst position of not being able to claim insurance.

Our local café is very popular, my husband likes to have his lunch there once a week, however if nobody goes anymore it will probably close. It is mean if they aren't entitled to insurance because the Government hasn't ordered them to close.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 17, 2020, 08:38:36 AM
Whatever else the corona virus is doing, it has done one lovely thing for me. Yesterday, I was trying to work out the best way of getting to and using the assisted shopping service always provided by Tesco, when the phone rang. It was a young woman I knew well a few years ago. She has just called in to take my list and get it for me. Now that is so very kind and thoughtful of her.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 17, 2020, 08:47:51 AM
Not understanding the position on pubs - it seems to put them in the worst position of not being able to claim insurance.

Indeed. When the earth is invaded by an alien life form threatening to kill 1% of the population the first thing Dr Who does is take a deep breath and check whether the pubs are insured.

Don't worry .. expect emergency powers to be in effect by the end of this week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 17, 2020, 08:56:30 AM
Our pool league has been suspended now. Can still go down the club to practice or play money games but no official competitons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2020, 09:08:36 AM
Indeed. When the earth is invaded by an alien life form threatening to kill 1% of the population the first thing Dr Who does is take a deep breath and check whether the pubs are insured.

Don't worry .. expect emergency powers to be in effect by the end of this week.
  But then Dr Who doesn't generally worry about 3 million jobs
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2020, 09:10:06 AM
Whatever else the corona virus is doing, it has done one lovely thing for me. Yesterday, I was trying to work out the best way of getting to and using the assisted shopping service always provided by Tesco, when the phone rang. It was a young woman I knew well a few years ago. She has just called in to take my list and get it for me. Now that is so very kind and thoughtful of her.

That's lovely to hear
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 17, 2020, 09:29:35 AM
Whatever else the corona virus is doing, it has done one lovely thing for me. Yesterday, I was trying to work out the best way of getting to and using the assisted shopping service always provided by Tesco, when the phone rang. It was a young woman I knew well a few years ago. She has just called in to take my list and get it for me. Now that is so very kind and thoughtful of her.

That's great.

Trying to think through how to generalise this... Between the NHS, Govt, local councils and supermarkets there must be enough information in the various databases to identify nearly everyone at risk of a serious case of covid-19.

Or a specific database could be started where people could self register or be registered.  Then the nearest local supermarkets could manage deliveries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 17, 2020, 09:32:35 AM
I've just been to the local village co-op near where I am at the moment , all bread sold out .Assistant said people were waiting from 7 AM !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 17, 2020, 09:36:22 AM
I got to Waitrose at 8am, they had a few loaves left, also spuds and green veg.  No fish.

It looks as if herd immunity has been abandoned, since collateral damage is large.   Suppression it is, hope it works.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 17, 2020, 09:38:26 AM
Our pool league has been suspended now. Can still go down the club to practice or play money games but no official competitons.

We are trying to decide if we should continue going to the gym or not. There is a risk from the point of possibly catching and spreading the virus but is it unnecessarily risky? Does it help anyone if we don't go? As it is still open, maybe it is fine?

I think swimming is OK - but I always end up chatting to other regulars.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2020, 09:39:49 AM
That's great.

Trying to think through how to generalise this... Between the NHS, Govt, local councils and supermarkets there must be enough information in the various databases to identify nearly everyone at risk of a serious case of covid-19.

Or a specific database could be started where people could self register or be registered.  Then the nearest local supermarkets could manage deliveries.
Agree. I think we would need to suspend GDPR
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 17, 2020, 09:40:29 AM
I've just been to the local village co-op near where I am at the moment , all bread sold out .Assistant said people were waiting from 7 AM !

In the USA they are queuing for weaponry.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 17, 2020, 09:47:09 AM
I got to Waitrose at 8am, they had a few loaves left, also spuds and green veg.  No fish.

It looks as if herd immunity has been abandoned, since collateral damage is large.   Suppression it is, hope it works.

The "science" was right all along and remains the same ... the problem was not the science but how to interpret and act on it. There would never have been time for herd immunity to help.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 17, 2020, 09:56:06 AM
We are trying to decide if we should continue going to the gym or not. There is a risk from the point of possibly catching and spreading the virus but is it unnecessarily risky? Does it help anyone if we don't go? As it is still open, maybe it is fine?

I think swimming is OK - but I always end up chatting to other regulars.

Balance your risk of dying from coronavirus against your risk of dying of coronary heart disease.

Don't forget, when you are swimming (in a pool, not open water), you are literally in a bath of (very weak) bleach designed to stop all those pesky viruses and other germs.

People are still overestimating the risk of catching the virus. As of yesterday (https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public), there were 1,543 confirmed COVID 19 cases out of 44,105 tested. That means, if you meet somebody who has the symptoms, there is still less than a 1/25 chance they have COVID 19 i.e. if you meet 25 people at random with a cough and high temperature only one will have the virus.

Look at it another way, let's say that we have only recorded 1% of all cases, that means there are 154,300 cases in the country at the moment. The probability of you meeting one of those people at random is about 1 in 500, and, of course, a high proportion of them are already self isolating so you won't meet them.

As things stand right now, you would have to be quite unlucky to catch coronavirus from any random person in the street. The government models say this is all going to change, so my advice is to do all the things you like doing now, because, in a couple of weeks, you won't be allowed to.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 17, 2020, 09:57:46 AM
In the USA they are queuing for weaponry.

Well, there's a photo of a queue outside one gun shop in California that might be being taken out of context.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 17, 2020, 10:00:14 AM
I got to Waitrose at 8am, they had a few loaves left, also spuds and green veg.  No fish.

It looks as if herd immunity has been abandoned, since collateral damage is large.   Suppression it is, hope it works.

Nobody was ever relying on herd immunity. The government's policy has always been to try to balance the cases against NHS capacity and to try to avoid doing too much damage to the economy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2020, 10:00:49 AM
Balance your risk of dying from coronavirus against your risk of dying of coronary heart disease.

Don't forget, when you are swimming (in a pool, not open water), you are literally in a bath of (very weak) bleach designed to stop all those pesky viruses and other germs.

People are still overestimating the risk of catching the virus. As of yesterday (https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public), there were 1,543 confirmed COVID 19 cases out of 44,105 tested. That means, if you meet somebody who has the symptoms, there is still less than a 1/25 chance they have COVID 19 i.e. if you meet 25 people at random with a cough and high temperature only one will have the virus.

Look at it another way, let's say that we have only recorded 1% of all cases, that means there are 154,300 cases in the country at the moment. The probability of you meeting one of those people at random is about 1 in 500, and, of course, a high proportion of them are already self isolating so you won't meet them.

As things stand right now, you would have to be quite unlucky to catch coronavirus from any random person in the street. The government models say this is all going to change, so my advice is to do all the things you like doing now, because, in a couple of weeks, you won't be allowed to.
   I don't think it will be a couple of weeks - more like the end of this week and even that feels optimistic
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 17, 2020, 10:16:41 AM
Nobody was ever relying on herd immunity. The government's policy has always been to try to balance the cases against NHS capacity and to try to avoid doing too much damage to the economy.


"Our aim is to try to reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not suppress it completely; also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission, at the same time we protect those who are most vulnerable to it.”

Patrick Vallance, chief scientific advisor, FT quote.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 17, 2020, 10:21:06 AM
We are trying to decide if we should continue going to the gym or not. There is a risk from the point of possibly catching and spreading the virus but is it unnecessarily risky? Does it help anyone if we don't go? As it is still open, maybe it is fine?

I think swimming is OK - but I always end up chatting to other regulars.

I belong to a gym too and have been thinking exactly the same thing. Not decided yet. Mind you, I might not have to make the decision.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 17, 2020, 10:27:16 AM
Well, there's a photo of a queue outside one gun shop in California that might be being taken out of context.
Yes, apparently in the US  bullets are the topof the list of things people are stocking up with.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ekim on March 17, 2020, 10:27:36 AM

Round the clock cremations, I wonder if this country can cope.

"ROME —In the part of Italy hit hardest by the coronavirus, the crematorium has started operating 24 hours a day. Coffins have filled up two hospital morgues, and then a cemetery morgue, and are now being lined up inside a cemetery church. The local newspaper's daily obituary section has grown from two or three pages to 10, sometimes listing more than 150 names, in what the top editor likens to "war bulletins."
By death toll alone, the coronavirus has landed in the northern province of Bergamo with the force of a historic disaster.
But its alarming power goes even further, all but ensuring that death and mourning happen in isolation — a trauma in which everybody must keep to themselves. "
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 17, 2020, 10:31:27 AM
In the USA they are queuing for weaponry.
yes but Warburtons are producing loaves baked around a hidden hand gun !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 17, 2020, 11:19:49 AM
I belong to a gym too and have been thinking exactly the same thing. Not decided yet. Mind you, I might not have to make the decision.

Indeed.

I agree with Jeremy here and am going along with his suggestions: 

Balance your risk of dying from coronavirus against your risk of dying of coronary heart disease.
...
As things stand right now, you would have to be quite unlucky to catch coronavirus from any random person in the street. The government models say this is all going to change, so my advice is to do all the things you like doing now, because, in a couple of weeks, you won't be allowed to.

The problem is not so much getting ill ourselves but, if we do, of spreading it so that it affects others, including older relatives or friends for example.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2020, 11:23:53 AM
From the BBC's rolling news



'The form the French must fill in to justify leaving home
Under the new French decree to stay at home, coming into effect shortly at 12:00 local time (11:00 GMT) on Tuesday, citizens will need to justify their movements.
A form has been created which they should carry when out and about, and on which the reasons for travel can be ticked. They are:
Commuting to work where working at home is not possible
Trips to authorised shops for necessities
Travel for health reasons
Travel for urgent family reasons, to help the vulnerable or for childcare
Brief trips close to home for exercise on an individual basis and/or to exercise pets
The form can be downloaded from this interior ministry site.
Reasons can also be set out on plain paper, but it will be regarded as a sworn statement.
Interior Minister Christophe Castaner said the fine for transgressors would soon be set at €135 ($150; £123).
Le Monde reports that some 100,000 civil servants and soldiers will be deployed nationwide to carry out checks.'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2020, 11:36:25 AM
And also


'Iran temporarily releases 85,000 prisoners
The number of prisoners released temporarily in Iran as the country grapples with the coronavirus outbreak has now reached 85,000, a judiciary spokesman said.
“So far, some 85,000 prisoners have been released ... Also in the jails we have taken precautionary measures to confront the outbreak,” Gholamhossein Esmaili told the Reuters news agency.
Political prisoners were among those freed.
He did not say when those released would have to return to prison.
A total of 853 people have died and 14,991 have been confirmed infected across the country.'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 17, 2020, 11:54:16 AM
I'm starting to think that some of this is a bit OTT, and likely to induce panic, when the great majority of cases are mild and quickly recovered from.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 17, 2020, 12:00:28 PM
The Laura Ashley chain is blaming its collapse on the coronavirus. Carphone Warehouse is also closing, but its closure isn't caused by the virus, although it probably hasn't helped.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 17, 2020, 12:04:51 PM
I hope that, when a vaccine is developed, they won't spend too long testing it before releasing it. The current legally required tests for new drugs before release in most Western countries are excessive, and actually cost lives, because people who could be saved die while waiting for it to become available. Hopefully, they'll cutail that (not completely abandon it, of course) in this case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 17, 2020, 12:09:48 PM
I'm beginning to think my lifestyle has become ideally suited to the current situation ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 17, 2020, 12:10:52 PM
...
Reasons can also be set out on plain paper, but it will be regarded as a sworn statement.
Interior Minister Christophe Castaner said the fine for transgressors would soon be set at €135 ($150; £123).
Le Monde reports that some 100,000 civil servants and soldiers will be deployed nationwide to carry out checks.'

Seems so 20th Century, and they have to deploy people to check ... increasing contact risks.

Essentially the problem is one of information: knowing who is vulnerable and where they are and knowing who is infected (and then recovered) and where they are. Testing can be provided (as soon as there is capacity) for everyone to check their status if needed. But then you need to make sure that when people move about the vulnerable don't come in contact with the infected. Need to stop both groups moving about. 

Brainstorming, If everyone stopped moving about and having contact for two weeks we would know exactly where all the live cases were,  or rather had been, and there would be no more transmission.
 
ie. Once locked down, you need to get back to strict testing and contact tracing: containment and elimination. Need to lock down well before the health service is overwhelmed as in Korea, Singapore, not after as in China, Italy.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 17, 2020, 12:17:24 PM
I hope that, when a vaccine is developed, they won't spend too long testing it before releasing it. The current legally required tests for new drugs before release in most Western countries are excessive, and actually cost lives, because people who could be saved die while waiting for it to become available. Hopefully, they'll cutail that (not completely abandon it, of course) in this case.

The US is already testing a vaccine. I believe a number of countries have created their versions of a vaccine and are no doubt testing them too. I think the tests have to be stringent, a vaccine is no good if it kills rather than cures.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 17, 2020, 12:21:21 PM
The US is already testing a vaccine. I believe a number of countries have created their versions of a vaccine and are no doubt testing them too. I think the tests have to be stringent, a vaccine is no good if it kills rather than cures.
Yes - but not over-stringent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 17, 2020, 12:23:01 PM
Yes - but not over-stringent.

It depends what you mean by over-stringent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 17, 2020, 12:27:47 PM
It depends what you mean by over-stringent.
What a pointless comment! Are you arguing for the sake of it? Again?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2020, 12:37:11 PM
Ffs!

https://www.thedailybeast.com/boris-johnson-made-operation-last-gasp-joke-about-urgent-respirator-making-project-says-report
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2020, 12:40:17 PM
Seems so 20th Century, and they have to deploy people to check ... increasing contact risks.

Essentially the problem is one of information: knowing who is vulnerable and where they are and knowing who is infected (and then recovered) and where they are. Testing can be provided (as soon as there is capacity) for everyone to check their status if needed. But then you need to make sure that when people move about the vulnerable don't come in contact with the infected. Need to stop both groups moving about. 

Brainstorming, If everyone stopped moving about and having contact for two weeks we would know exactly where all the live cases were,  or rather had been, and there would be no more transmission.
 
ie. Once locked down, you need to get back to strict testing and contact tracing: containment and elimination. Need to lock down well before the health service is overwhelmed as in Korea, Singapore, not after as in China, Italy.
 
How do you stop everyone moving about though? Hospitals, food delivery needs to continue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 17, 2020, 12:41:41 PM
Ffs!

https://www.thedailybeast.com/boris-johnson-made-operation-last-gasp-joke-about-urgent-respirator-making-project-says-report
saney ,
Briefly , what does it say . I can't open it !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2020, 12:46:20 PM
I hope that, when a vaccine is developed, they won't spend too long testing it before releasing it. The current legally required tests for new drugs before release in most Western countries are excessive, and actually cost lives, because people who could be saved die while waiting for it to become available. Hopefully, they'll cutail that (not completely abandon it, of course) in this case.
  I suppose one might argue that the danger of litigation has lead to over stringency but there have been enough issues with drugs not sufficiently tested that I think I need a bit more persuading than some random poster on a message board who has no relevant qualifications in the subject asserting that the testing regs are excessive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2020, 12:49:06 PM
saney ,
Briefly , what does it say . I can't open it !
Johnson was in a meeting with 60 manufacturers to discuss production of respirators and referred to it  as 'Operation Last Gasp'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 17, 2020, 12:51:56 PM
My main consideration is that if I became ill, then it is not fair on my family who do not live just round the corner. Keeping fit is most important but there are several hazards: I can't walk as briskly as I used to, although walking the amount I do is better than sitting. I can't manage rain or strong wind because it is too difficult to see enough of where I am or am going. I have to slow down when the sun is very  bright and often it is too bright to cope with. Therefore, going to the gym is the solution. I shall not be silly, though, and go when the situation gets worse. I have one of those stretch bands, a shortish one, and a couple of not too heavy dumbbells, plus a fitness ball, and of course there is always the floor on which to exercise! As for CV, I step up and down the bottom stair!

I've put the shopping away. It is interesting that people can see different versions of the things I usually choose, so some of the things my young friend has brought are interestingly and tastily different!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 17, 2020, 12:53:44 PM
Johnson was in a meeting with 60 manufacturers to discuss production of respirators and referred to it  as 'Operation Last Gasp'
Now that IS funny .😂😱
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2020, 12:55:49 PM
Now that IS funny .😂😱
If you had said it, I would agree but it isn't when the PM is saying it. He wants to be Churchill, but is rather Benny Hill.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 17, 2020, 12:56:55 PM
Ffs!

https://www.thedailybeast.com/boris-johnson-made-operation-last-gasp-joke-about-urgent-respirator-making-project-says-report
Gallows humour has its place, but probably not a good idea from the PM.

Pub landlords and restaurateurs are understandably cross with the government for recommending that people avoid them, but not ordering them to close: if they had to close, they could claim financial compensation, but as it is, they're getting clobbered.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 17, 2020, 01:00:15 PM
  I suppose one might argue that the danger of litigation has lead to over stringency but there have been enough issues with drugs not sufficiently tested that I think I need a bit more persuading than some random poster on a message board who has no relevant qualifications in the subject asserting that the testing regs are excessive.
Fair point, but I read it in an opinion piece in the 'Guardian' some years ago, so it must be true. (LR - that's a joke.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2020, 01:01:18 PM
Gallows humour has its place, but probably not a good idea from the PM.

Pub landlords and restaurateurs are understandably cross with the government for recommending that people avoid them, but not ordering them to close: if they had to close, they could claim financial compensation, but as it is, they're getting clobbered.

It's definitely not a good idea from the PM.


And yes, I agree on the pubs and restaurants question though the Association of British Insurers are apparently arguing that even if the govt does tell them to shut , the cover won't apply.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 17, 2020, 01:02:42 PM
If you had said it, I would agree but it isn't when the PM is saying it. He wants to be Churchill, but is rather Benny Hill.
yep , I would have quite proud of that one but you could be right 😎
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 17, 2020, 01:03:54 PM
And yes, I agree on the pubs and restaurants question though the Association of British Insurers are apparently arguing that even if the govt does tell them to shut , the cover won't apply.
Perhaps, but they could claim compensation from the government, presumably (which may be why the government isn't ordering them to shut, the cynic in me suggests).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2020, 01:05:54 PM
Fair point, but I read it in an opinion piece in the 'Guardian' some years ago, so it must be true. (LR - that's a joke.)
The problem is that reducing the time means any longer term effects are not seen. There is a balance to be achieved but not easy to establish. Experimental treatments in those cases which are rare can I think be fast tracked effectively at the choice of those involved but this is about using a drug widely enough to mimic herd immunity, so I think that needs a lot of care.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2020, 01:09:46 PM
Perhaps, but they could claim compensation from the government, presumably (which may be why the government isn't ordering them to shut, the cynic in me suggests).
Govt has no duty to compensate. It needs to tell them to close and tell the insurers to pay up. Lots of places near me shutting anyway from tonight. Number of friends, ok bar staff that I have developed a symbiotic relationship with, being laid off.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 17, 2020, 01:10:59 PM
If I had been PM my strategy would have been , do nothing let it take it's course ,
Clear out the dead wood rather than destroy the lives of millions financially .
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 17, 2020, 01:12:11 PM
The country's heading for lockdown, but I remain infuriatingly healthy, so I can't have a week off work - damn! I bet I get it at the end of April/beginning of May, when I've got two weeks' annual leave! >:( >:( >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 17, 2020, 01:15:23 PM
If I had been PM my strategy would have been do nothing let it take its course,
and clear out the dead wood, rather than destroy the lives of millions financially .
Don't overdo the caring, sharing soppiness, or people will think you're a snowflake. (Corrected your punctuation and grammar for you.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2020, 01:19:03 PM
After? this is over we need to have a proper investigation into the whole process. Not that the below is necessarily true but to just ignore any possible lessons would be foolish.


https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-strategy-deaths?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2020, 01:21:07 PM
If I had been PM my strategy would have been , do nothing let it take it's course ,
Clear out the dead wood rather than destroy the lives of millions financially .
Meaningless in a global economy. Gets rid of your core vote.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 17, 2020, 01:24:53 PM
Don't overdo the caring, sharing soppiness, or people will think you're a snowflake. (Corrected you punctuation and grammar for you.)
thanks for the corrections , I'm triping on an old iPhone 4 with little signal and I can't see the screen half the time !!

Also , snowflakery never won fair lady
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 17, 2020, 01:26:46 PM
Btw , that last line was NEVER the motto of the SAS 😳
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 17, 2020, 01:27:28 PM
After? this is over we need to have a proper investigation into the whole process. Not that the below is necessarily true but to just ignore any possible lessons would be foolish.


https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-strategy-deaths?__twitter_impression=true

I'm seeing this thread quoted a lot, along with Twitter threads by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the Black Swan.  Some mathematicians and modellers seem scornful of the initial govt response, especially any reference to herd immunity.  I expect one day, there will be an enquiry.   Not being a mathematician, I find it hard to follow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 17, 2020, 01:28:58 PM
I'm not saying things are getting out of hand, but I've just seen a group of flagellants walking down my street.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 17, 2020, 01:33:44 PM
Meaningless in a global economy. Gets rid of your core vote.
i was only looking at one term anyway , couldn't care less after that !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 17, 2020, 01:37:06 PM
Just to be serious for a moment ( I know) !

I drew out a wad of cash this morning . I'm thinking cash may be required increasingly in the near future 👽
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 17, 2020, 01:43:12 PM
Just to be serious for a moment ( I know) !

I drew out a wad of cash this morning . I'm thinking cash may be required increasingly in the near future 👽
Before we start eating each other and searching for food and fuel in the ruins of our abandoned cities, you mean?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 17, 2020, 01:49:32 PM
Meaningless in a global economy. Gets rid of your core vote.

I think also Spanish flu mutated, and its second wave killed a lot of young people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 17, 2020, 01:56:45 PM
How do you stop everyone moving about though? Hospitals, food delivery needs to continue.

The Italian, Spanish and French measures are, imo, unavoidable given where we are now.

 "the French president, Emmanuel Macron, said the citizens must stay at home from midday on Tuesday for at least 15 days."

Along with this we need a system to record people vulnerable and who have been or are infected or available for jobs/skills needed.  Only authorised travel - eg. for essential jobs with all destinations and contacts recorded. Mobiles can be used to obtain and or check authorisation, movement and contacts.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 17, 2020, 02:11:38 PM
I'm seeing this thread quoted a lot, along with Twitter threads by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the Black Swan.  Some mathematicians and modellers seem scornful of the initial govt response, especially any reference to herd immunity.  I expect one day, there will be an enquiry.   Not being a mathematician, I find it hard to follow.

There are a number of different models but the underlying maths is common and well understood. The models give different outputs depending on the assumptions (eg about the virus) and figures fed in - just like a big spreadsheet really.

You only have to feed in slightly incorrect data to get massive differences in outcomes. It is easy to introduce bias into the input - especially if you do not have reliable figures from sampling or, in this case, testing. Then you will interpret the outputs with the same biases in play.
   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2020, 02:20:41 PM
The US President tweeting inflammatory shite as usual


'Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump


The United States will be powerfully supporting those industries, like Airlines and others, that are particularly affected by the Chinese Virus. We will be stronger than ever before!'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2020, 02:22:10 PM
There are a number of different models but the underlying maths is common and well understood. The models give different outputs depending on the assumptions (eg about the virus) and figures fed in - just like a big spreadsheet really.

You only have to feed in slightly incorrect data to get massive differences in outcomes. It is easy to introduce bias into the input - especially if you do not have reliable figures from sampling or, in this case, testing. Then you will interpret the outputs with the same biases in play.
   
But the question then is are the figures being fed in as a result of political decisions?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 17, 2020, 02:45:54 PM
There are a number of different models but the underlying maths is common and well understood. The models give different outputs depending on the assumptions (eg about the virus) and figures fed in - just like a big spreadsheet really.

You only have to feed in slightly incorrect data to get massive differences in outcomes. It is easy to introduce bias into the input - especially if you do not have reliable figures from sampling or, in this case, testing. Then you will interpret the outputs with the same biases in play.
   

I thought one of Taleb's points was that herd immunity can only be achieved via vaccination.  To get there via a lot of people catching the virus involves a lot of deaths, and may not achieve immunity.  Did polio?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 17, 2020, 03:10:31 PM
But the question then is are the figures being fed in as a result of political decisions?

I don't think so, and I can't see that that would be to anyone's benefit. The plans were built on data available at the start of Feb, prior to the data obtained from Italy - so reruns of the models with later data have given better predictions (with worse trajectory). I suspect that UK testing was was restricted because of lack of testing capacity - continuing testing (as in the containment phase) would have given more indication of what was going to happen.   

If you are self-isolating or otherwise have time to while away, this, probably too detailed, video streamed from the RCP in Feb. might be of interest. but it is important not speculate on or over-interpret what they are saying. The 3rd presenter, John Edmunds (from the LSHTM), defended some aspects of the herd immunity idea on Channel 4 last week.

https://www.rcplondon.ac.uk/video/live-streaming

(not sure how long the link will work).

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 17, 2020, 03:19:04 PM
I thought one of Taleb's points was that herd immunity can only be achieved via vaccination.  To get there via a lot of people catching the virus involves a lot of deaths, and may not achieve immunity.  Did polio?

Indeed, but it's not a law, just maths. The proportion of the pop that needs to be infected (or immunised) for herd immunity is (R0-1)/R0.

Plug in your value for R0 - but that value depends on many other factors, including availability of vaccines and can be different in different countries or cultures, and must be re-evaluated on an ongoing basis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 17, 2020, 03:33:15 PM

"Our aim is to try to reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not suppress it completely; also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission, at the same time we protect those who are most vulnerable to it.”

Patrick Vallance, chief scientific advisor, FT quote.

He walked that back though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 17, 2020, 03:42:49 PM
What a pointless comment! Are you arguing for the sake of it? Again?

You claimed that drug testing was excessive and costing lives. But there is a reason why drug testing is the way it is: using the drug might cost more lives than it saves.

For example, if you develop a vaccine, you have to make sure that it is both effective and it doesn't give people the disease it is supposed to prevent.

Think about how you would do that for coronavirus. Are you going to give people the vaccine unless you have done everything possible to show it won't give them the disease? (I don't know how you'd do that btw).

How are you going to test its effectiveness? One way would be to give people the vaccine and then deliberately expose them to the disease. How ethical does that sound to you? Another way is to give people the vaccine and then wait some time to see how many get the disease, but this takes time.

Quit whining. The vaccine will be ready when it is ready and cutting corners could be disastrous.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 17, 2020, 03:44:26 PM
Johnson was in a meeting with 60 manufacturers to discuss production of respirators and referred to it  as 'Operation Last Gasp'
That's good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 17, 2020, 03:51:54 PM
It has been reported that Stanley Johnson, the daddy of Boris has stuck two fingers up to his son. He says if he wants to go to the pub he will continue to do so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 17, 2020, 04:02:40 PM
I have just heard the Archbishop of Canterbury has suspended all CofE church services until further notice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 17, 2020, 04:21:21 PM
More importantly, no horse-racing after today!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 17, 2020, 04:28:51 PM
More importantly, no horse-racing after today!

Jolly good. Maybe the bookies will go out of business. ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2020, 04:31:13 PM
Jolly good. Maybe the bookies will go out of business. ;D
So you want lots of poorly paid people to lose their jobs?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2020, 04:32:53 PM
That's good.
It's passable but it's idiotic coming from the PM
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 17, 2020, 04:50:26 PM

This is good, by Petra Klepac from the LSHTM:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/17/scientists-age-groups-covid-19-workplaces-shops-restaurants

Quote
What we have found in this data is that adults aged 20-50 make most of their contacts in workplaces. If those of us who can work remotely start doing so now, it will contribute to lowering overall transmission in the population. Another important finding is that people over 65 – who are particularly at risk from severe Covid-19 illness – make over half of their contacts in other settings (not home, school or work), such as shops, restaurants and leisure centres. By avoiding these interactions, people who are most at risk from the new coronavirus could halve their risk of infection. By changing our behaviour now, and sustaining these changes throughout the outbreak, we can significantly reduce our own risk of infection, and the risk to others, and by doing so help protect those most vulnerable.

Also discusses R, the reproduction number and vaccination/immunity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 17, 2020, 04:54:40 PM
This is good, by Petra Klepac from the LSHTM:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/17/scientists-age-groups-covid-19-workplaces-shops-restaurants

Also discusses R, the reproduction number and vaccination/immunity.

Again, great  if you can work from home, but for those who have to graft for a living...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 17, 2020, 04:57:03 PM
Who knows how long the bars and pubs will be open over here. Having a few Jameson's for St. Paddy's Day at the local boozer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 17, 2020, 05:21:42 PM
I know not all pandemics come from China. The 2009 swine flu came from Mexico, I think, and the Spanish flu maybe from America. But about three have: sars, avian flu and now corona. I know authorities such as WHO don't want to stigmatise China, but is it wrong to suggest they need to change some of their eating and medicinal habits, along with the illegal live animal trade, so that this doesn't happen again? Genuine question. I know I made a flippant remark earlier in this thread which was removed, but I am genuinely interested in what others think.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 17, 2020, 07:01:51 PM
I know not all pandemics come from China. The 2009 swine flu came from Mexico, I think, and the Spanish flu maybe from America. But about three have: sars, avian flu and now corona. I know authorities such as WHO don't want to stigmatise China, but is it wrong to suggest they need to change some of their eating and medicinal habits, along with the illegal live animal trade, so that this doesn't happen again? Genuine question. I know I made a flippant remark earlier in this thread which was removed, but I am genuinely interested in what others think.

I'd go along with that, not only because of the risk of disease but also because the poaching and trafficking of rare and endangered species to satisfy the Chinese market is unacceptable. They have made moves to close these "wet" markets and stop wild life smuggling.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 17, 2020, 07:15:40 PM
It's passable but it's idiotic coming from the PM

FFS Get a sense of humour.

It's the only thing that is going to stop you from going insane in the next few weeks...

... oh, wait.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 17, 2020, 07:18:34 PM
I know not all pandemics come from China. The 2009 swine flu came from Mexico, I think, and the Spanish flu maybe from America. But about three have: sars, avian flu and now corona. I know authorities such as WHO don't want to stigmatise China, but is it wrong to suggest they need to change some of their eating and medicinal habits, along with the illegal live animal trade, so that this doesn't happen again? Genuine question. I know I made a flippant remark earlier in this thread which was removed, but I am genuinely interested in what others think.

I don't give a flying fuck where the viruses come from. I only care that we deal with them. Pointing fingers really doesn't help that.

China is likely to be the source of a lot of new viruses because there are a lot of people there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 17, 2020, 08:35:01 PM
As, is my usual way, I am getting bogged down in trivialities, so can I just mention toilet paper. Stop you fucking numpties I am getting close to having to resort to a bucket of water with a cup.

As stated elsewhere:

If you need 144 rolls of toilet paper to survive a 14 day quarantine then you should have seen a Doctor long before Covid 19 appeared on the scene.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2020, 09:30:10 PM
FFS Get a sense of humour.

It's the only thing that is going to stop you from going insane in the next few weeks...

... oh, wait.
  It isn't funny for many people scared of dying to have this idiotic idea from the PM. You appear to have no idea of context or statesmanship, just like Johnson.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 17, 2020, 10:13:09 PM
  It isn't funny for many people scared of dying to have this idiotic idea from the PM. You appear to have no idea of context or statesmanship, just like Johnson.
saney

Get over yourself ,  you sanctimonious person !

( I cleaned that up before posting )
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 17, 2020, 10:16:57 PM
Oh FFS MY ELECTRIC has just run out
Not only am I in the middle of a field , I'm in pitch dark too !

Self isolation , nice !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2020, 10:19:35 PM
saney

Get over yourself ,  you sanctimonious person !

( I cleaned that up before posting )
And you need to start understanding the difference between you and the the prick PM.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2020, 10:21:43 PM
Oh FFS MY ELECTRIC has just run out
Not only am I in the middle of a field , I'm in pitch dark too !

Self isolation , nice !
Take care
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 17, 2020, 10:32:22 PM
Take care
you too old chap

Have a wee dram for me x cheers
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 17, 2020, 10:35:48 PM
Btw I was just chatting (messaging) with my daughter . Australia seems very far away at the moment 😪
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2020, 10:37:40 PM
Btw I was just chatting (messaging) with my daughter . Australia seems very far away at the moment 😪
can imagine. I'm only 25 miles away from my mother and n it feels like a chasm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 17, 2020, 10:43:52 PM
can imagine. I'm only 25 miles away from my mother and n it feels like a chasm.
saney

I know how I come across on here but I'm a big softie family man really so I fully understand
( keep this between us though I have an image to maintain )
Stay safe and well and say hello to your mum from me 😘
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 17, 2020, 11:12:27 PM
Look out for the new Soap from ITV
they're putting a buch of self isolating old folk in one place
It's called Coronavirus  Street

Can't wait 😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 18, 2020, 05:11:53 AM
I don't give a flying fuck where the viruses come from. I only care that we deal with them. Pointing fingers really doesn't help that.

China is likely to be the source of a lot of new viruses because there are a lot of people there.
 

Interesting. Personally I think we should care where they come from.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 18, 2020, 07:56:11 AM
  It isn't funny for many people scared of dying to have this idiotic idea from the PM. You appear to have no idea of context or statesmanship, just like Johnson.
Just because you are peeing your pants over this doesn't mean I have to.

This is the worst crisis that's hit our country in my life time. I'm going to see the funny side of it where I can whether you like it or not. If I don't, I'll go insane.

This was not our PM making a joke about people dying, it was just him being tone deaf. I think that's funny.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 18, 2020, 07:58:10 AM
 

Interesting. Personally I think we should care where they come from.
Only in the scientific sense that it helps us to better understand them. I'm not interested in blaming anybody.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 18, 2020, 08:29:22 AM
Just because you are peeing your pants over this doesn't mean I have to.

This is the worst crisis that's hit our country in my life time. I'm going to see the funny side of it where I can whether you like it or not. If I don't, I'll go insane.

This was not our PM making a joke about people dying, it was just him being tone deaf. I think that's funny.
I think it's an odd sense of humour to find the incompetence of the PM funny in 'the worst crisis that's hit our country in our lifetime'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 18, 2020, 08:50:48 AM
It'd be a bit of a bummer if the EU provides grants or other help to its member countries to help them through the plague, which we won't get because we've just left.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 18, 2020, 08:56:10 AM
It think leaving the EU is a mistake even the leavers might live to regret, now we are at war with the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 18, 2020, 09:10:49 AM
Only in the scientific sense that it helps us to better understand them. I'm not interested in blaming anybody.

No, not blame but surely certain practices need to change in order to help prevent things like this happening, surely?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 18, 2020, 10:45:32 AM
No, not blame but surely certain practices need to change in order to help prevent things like this happening, surely?

I think this article really answers your question:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/18/tip-of-the-iceberg-is-our-destruction-of-nature-responsible-for-covid-19-aoe

Quote

In 2008, Jones and a team of researchers identified 335 diseases that emerged between 1960 and 2004, at least 60% of which came from animals.

Increasingly, says Jones, these zoonotic diseases are linked to environmental change and human behaviour. The disruption of pristine forests driven by logging, mining, road building through remote places, rapid urbanisation and population growth is bringing people into closer contact with animal species they may never have been near before, she says.

The resulting transmission of disease from wildlife to humans, she says, is now “a hidden cost of human economic development. There are just so many more of us, in every environment. We are going into largely undisturbed places and being exposed more and more. We are creating habitats where viruses are transmitted more easily, and then we are surprised that we have new ones.”


Humans have taken over the planet with little or no regard for the environment and its other inhabitants. There are not many alternative endings in this kind of story.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Alan Burns on March 18, 2020, 11:42:17 AM
As we approach total lockdown, we have the opportunity to reflect on what is really important in our lives - it is life itself.  One positive observation is that many people have turned away from indulging in self centred activity and channelled their energy and resources into looking after the needs of the most vulnerable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 18, 2020, 11:47:13 AM
One thing which is considered much less important now is religious worship. It is much more important to consider human physical needs at a time like this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 18, 2020, 01:22:49 PM
Just been watching our FM's statement - our schools and nurseries will close at the end of this week and that there is no expectation that they will reopen after the Easter break or before the summer school holidays (which start at the end of June in Scotland)..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 18, 2020, 01:31:40 PM
All schools here in Wales will close as from Friday. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on March 18, 2020, 02:12:39 PM
 On the bright side, they've just cancelled the Eurovision Song contest.
Every cloud.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 18, 2020, 03:25:43 PM
On the bright side, they've just cancelled the Eurovision Song contest.
Every cloud.....

Watch it.

Now if we could get rid of that ridiculous military tattoo nonsense that would be a bright side.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 18, 2020, 03:32:09 PM
On the bright side, they've just cancelled the Eurovision Song contest.
Every cloud.....

I agree.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on March 18, 2020, 03:32:30 PM
Watch it.

Now if we could get rid of that ridiculous military tattoo nonsense that would be a bright side.
   

Looking for an argument?
Hard cheese!
I'm with you all the way!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 18, 2020, 04:55:10 PM
   

Looking for an argument?
Hard cheese!
I'm with you all the way!
Any ideas for occupying the time, anchorman? My not-so-strong-as-it-used-to-be heart doesn't allow for brisk walking; can't manage rain; strong wind I can do, but do not enjoy;    strong sunlight ditto. Leisure centre closed, so no gym or swimming; dance studio closed. I do of course realise how lucky I am to be as well as I am at the moment, but …

I have printed off the Tuesday cryptic crossword and am working on that slowly. I have started a new braille book, 'Bird Sense' which I think will be interesting. I have a skipping rope which I used to use quite a lot, so I think I'll use that in the back area - paved and flat.

And, well, typing this has used up a bit of time, so thanks to anyone who has read it!! :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 18, 2020, 04:57:41 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51949243

The border between Canada and the US is to be closed for all non-essential travel.

All UK schools are to close.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on March 18, 2020, 06:04:38 PM
Any ideas for occupying the time, anchorman? My not-so-strong-as-it-used-to-be heart doesn't allow for brisk walking; can't manage rain; strong wind I can do, but do not enjoy;    strong sunlight ditto. Leisure centre closed, so no gym or swimming; dance studio closed. I do of course realise how lucky I am to be as well as I am at the moment, but … I have printed off the Tuesday cryptic crossword and am working on that slowly. I have started a new braille book, 'Bird Sense' which I think will be interesting. I have a skipping rope which I used to use quite a lot, so I think I'll use that in the back area - paved and flat. And, well, typing this has used up a bit of time, so thanks to anyone who has read it!! :)
Well, I know you're not into churchy type stuff - although we have suspended formal Sunday Worship, we'll still open the church on Sunday for prayer and reflections. You and i are relatively lucky, Susan, in that we can exercise to some extent, and have access to online stuff....but I know too many Visually impaired folk who have n such access, some of them doubly unfortunate in that they are also hearing impaired. An enforced isolation, whilst possibly helping keep them safe physically, will in all probabability damage them mentally. I'm genuinely concerned for that situation. As for me? I have farmland less than a hundred yards from my house, and plenty of places where I can swing the long cane in self-isolating bliss without breaking anyone's ankles. If I'm indoors, I can work on another E book to add to the one I wrote last year and which was out of date thanks to new discoveries, approximately ten minutes after I finished writing it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 18, 2020, 06:22:48 PM
I think it's an odd sense of humour to find the incompetence of the PM funny in 'the worst crisis that's hit our country in our lifetime'
It's a relatively minor piece of incompetence.

If you didn't laugh, you'd have to cry. I'll go with the former.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 18, 2020, 06:23:28 PM
No, not blame but surely certain practices need to change in order to help prevent things like this happening, surely?
What practices?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 18, 2020, 06:31:06 PM
What practices?

Some eating habits and the illegal live animal trade.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 18, 2020, 06:36:31 PM
It's a relatively minor piece of incompetence.

If you didn't laugh, you'd have to cry. I'll go with the former.
Nah, no crying just ffsing
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 18, 2020, 06:38:16 PM
I think this article really answers your question:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/18/tip-of-the-iceberg-is-our-destruction-of-nature-responsible-for-covid-19-aoe

Humans have taken over the planet with little or no regard for the environment and its other inhabitants. There are not many alternative endings in this kind of story.

It's bollocks.

Well there is an underlying truth. Diseases do transfer from animals with which we come in contact, but they have been doing this for millennia. What is newish is the mobility of humans. It's much easier for a new disease to become a pandemic thanks to the fact that people can travel almost anywhere on the  globe in under 24 hours.

The other thing that is new is that we - in developed countries - are not used to being confronted with diseases that we can't deal with. The R<sub>0</sub> value for measles is far higher than coronavirus (12 to 18 compared to about 2.5) but we don't panic about it because it rarely kills healthy westerners.

Back in the day there were epidemics that devastated populations. Spanish flu killed millions. The Black Death killed a third of the people in Europe.

Pretending that this is, in some sense new is nonsense.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 18, 2020, 06:40:58 PM
Some eating habits and the illegal live animal trade.
Can you be a bit more specific on the eating practices?

Illegal live animal trade is already illegal. What else are you intending to do about it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 18, 2020, 07:01:28 PM
Can you be a bit more specific on the eating practices?

Illegal live animal trade is already illegal. What else are you intending to do about it?

The illegal live animal trade, which happens quite openly in the markets, needs to be cracked down on more harshly. As for eating habits, eating things like live baby mice, bat soup, birds nest soup etc needs to end.

The thing is, do we actually start asking questions, or do we just wait until some bird flu variation manages to adapt so it can more efficiently spread from human to human before we do something? If that does happen then we really are all in the shit and coronavirus will seem like a walk in the park.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 18, 2020, 07:17:45 PM
I was talking to the bloke in Timpsons earlier
He was trying to work out if he was a key worker 😆
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 18, 2020, 07:18:35 PM
I was talking to the bloke in Timpsons earlier
He was trying to work out if he was a key worker 😆
He didn't look down at heel?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 18, 2020, 07:48:05 PM
Well, I know you're not into churchy type stuff - although we have suspended formal Sunday Worship, we'll still open the church on Sunday for prayer and reflections. You and i are relatively lucky, Susan, in that we can exercise to some extent, and have access to online stuff....but I know too many Visually impaired folk who have n such access, some of them doubly unfortunate in that they are also hearing impaired. An enforced isolation, whilst possibly helping keep them safe physically, will in all probabability damage them mentally. I'm genuinely concerned for that situation. As for me? I have farmland less than a hundred yards from my house, and plenty of places where I can swing the long cane in self-isolating bliss without breaking anyone's ankles. If I'm indoors, I can work on another E book to add to the one I wrote last year and which was out of date thanks to new discoveries, approximately ten minutes after I finished writing it.
Thank you for reply. Interesting that you go to a more open space to walk. Apart from the fact that I cannot get to the open land of the New Forest, I would not be able to do any walking. I need a firm (pavement) footing and reference points like hedges, clear kerbs and knowing them well. 

I much admire anyone who can write even a small book - I'd never get past a first sentence, even if I had an idea about what to write! :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 18, 2020, 08:09:08 PM
Well, I know you're not into churchy type stuff - although we have suspended formal Sunday Worship, we'll still open the church on Sunday for prayer and reflections. You and i are relatively lucky, Susan, in that we can exercise to some extent, and have access to online stuff....but I know too many Visually impaired folk who have n such access, some of them doubly unfortunate in that they are also hearing impaired. An enforced isolation, whilst possibly helping keep them safe physically, will in all probabability damage them mentally. I'm genuinely concerned for that situation. As for me? I have farmland less than a hundred yards from my house, and plenty of places where I can swing the long cane in self-isolating bliss without breaking anyone's ankles. If I'm indoors, I can work on another E book to add to the one I wrote last year and which was out of date thanks to new discoveries, approximately ten minutes after I finished writing it.

Chatting on line to friends and we are looking at setting up a regular on line meeting via Zoom or WhatsApp or some such, and look at maybe having some planned stuff in terms of what we know. We could do something similar on here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 18, 2020, 09:19:48 PM
Chatting on line to friends and we are looking at setting up a regular on line meeting via Zoom or WhatsApp or some such, and look at maybe having some planned stuff in terms of what we know. We could do something similar on here.

You mean we'd have to see posters faces?!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 18, 2020, 09:33:05 PM
You mean we'd have to see posters faces?!
not compulsory
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 18, 2020, 09:34:56 PM
Was asking on FB about what songs to sing from a Glasgow balcony and this is the best suggestion

https://youtu.be/MMNDwtvAtPg
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on March 18, 2020, 09:39:05 PM
Thank you for reply. Interesting that you go to a more open space to walk. Apart from the fact that I cannot get to the open land of the New Forest, I would not be able to do any walking. I need a firm (pavement) footing and reference points like hedges, clear kerbs and knowing them well. 

I much admire anyone who can write even a small book - I'd never get past a first sentence, even if I had an idea about what to write! :)
   


I'm confined to tarmac and paved areas as well, Susan - but since the farms and countryside begin approximately two hundred yards from my gaffe, I have no excuses.
Add to this that an area of former open cast gas been planted with native woodland, with visually impaired friendly walkways which have great landmarks, and I have it made.
As for the writing thing?
My book started off as a paper I submitted to a magazine, and several fellow geeks suggest I expand it....so I did - choosing just about the most controversial topic in Egyptology today, spouting a theory....which has been well and truly debunked due to some twit finding a bit of discarded stone with two lines of writing on it last year.
I hate Egyptology....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 18, 2020, 09:51:22 PM
You mean we'd have to see posters faces?!

Well, we could wear darkened glasses and have both smelling salts and a lifebelt handy - it might even be survivable.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 18, 2020, 10:05:28 PM
The collapse of the stock markets is still not properly  thought out 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 18, 2020, 10:22:26 PM
The collapse of the stock markets is still not properly  thought out
I'll wait until the arse has totally fallen out then buy a few yen
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 18, 2020, 10:25:55 PM
He didn't look down at heel?
thats cobblers mate !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 18, 2020, 11:22:02 PM
It's bollocks.

Well there is an underlying truth. Diseases do transfer from animals with which we come in contact, but they have been doing this for millennia. What is newish is the mobility of humans. It's much easier for a new disease to become a pandemic thanks to the fact that people can travel almost anywhere on the  globe in under 24 hours.

The other thing that is new is that we - in developed countries - are not used to being confronted with diseases that we can't deal with. The R0 value for measles is far higher than coronavirus (12 to 18 compared to about 2.5) but we don't panic about it because it rarely kills healthy westerners.

Back in the day there were epidemics that devastated populations. Spanish flu killed millions. The Black Death killed a third of the people in Europe.

Pretending that this is, in some sense new is nonsense.

Who said it was new? The older plagues took longer to spread and lasted much longer - but we got used to them, even carried some to the Americas with devastating results. We know diseases can jump species and should have expected them to cross as we plundered new spaces.     

The risks of disruption are greater now precisely because of our mobility. The most depressing thing about the current shambles is that it is due to a generally minor disease that was entirely predictable and that we should have had contingency plans for.

We don't panic about measles or flu because we have vaccines for them and know how to deal with them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 19, 2020, 06:38:15 AM
John Crace's assessment of our fuckwit PM - on the button, as usual.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/18/pantomime-clown-boris-johnson-flounders-as-crisis-deepens
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 19, 2020, 07:45:33 AM

The thing is, do we actually start asking questions, or do we just wait until some bird flu variation manages to adapt so it can more efficiently spread from human to human before we do something? If that does happen then we really are all in the shit and coronavirus will seem like a walk in the park.
It happens all the time. Most of our major diseases originated in some other kind of animal. It's part of life.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 19, 2020, 07:55:58 AM
John Crace's assessment of our fuckwit PM - on the button, as usual.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/18/pantomime-clown-boris-johnson-flounders-as-crisis-deepens

Quote
When the country might be economically on its knees, we have a prime minister happy to bankrupt it completely just to keep the rightwing Brexiters on board.
That sums it up.

We have a similar problem to the USA. We have a leader who is great at the sound bites and the fluff but when there's a real problem is totally out of his depth.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 19, 2020, 08:09:45 AM
This looks like a useful page.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 19, 2020, 09:35:52 AM
It happens all the time. Most of our major diseases originated in some other kind of animal. It's part of life.

Well, nice to see you being so unbothered by it then. But no, let's not question dodgy eating habits. Do you go along with that herd immunity stuff, other than through vaccines, even if it means a high amount of deaths? After all, that's just nature too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 19, 2020, 09:55:56 AM

Interesting article

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-14/south-koreas-rapid-coronavirus-testing-far-ahead-of-the-u-s-could-be-a-matter-of-life-and-death?fbclid=IwAR1IjKVZ-Jb7STJbeYmN1KXTft_zUDMuFaCZIsKalfP2zxrFmhCSyriRja4
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 19, 2020, 10:02:23 AM
Well, nice to see you being so unbothered by it then. But no, let's not question dodgy eating habits. Do you go along with that herd immunity stuff, other than through vaccines, even if it means a high amount of deaths? After all, that's just nature too.
It does look as though the live-animal markets and some dietary habits in China may be responsible, and we ought to be able to say so without being accused of racism.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on March 19, 2020, 11:06:57 AM
Was asking on FB about what songs to sing from a Glasgow balcony and this is the best suggestion

https://youtu.be/MMNDwtvAtPg

You'd go viral.

It does look as though the live-animal markets and some dietary habits in China may be responsible, and we ought to be able to say so without being accused of racism.

That is true.

I'm working from home  :(, it had to happen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 19, 2020, 11:37:57 AM
I have a question: If vaccination involves being given a small dose of the virus, is there a way in which we could naturally limit exposure to it, and by taking immediate action when experiencing symptoms such as sore throat, not allow the disease to take hold in the body?

My thinking is based on a two year period during which I went from driving a 2002-reg car to a 2007-reg, which had much better power steering. I didn't get a cold in that period. I then sold it and bought another 2002-reg, and pretty soon got a bad cold.

If the upper body and neck is overstrained, I think this predisposes to catching these viruses (obviously other factors are involved, such as not keeping warm).

I've now bought a 2008-reg with good power steering, and haven't caught a cold yet.

I'm also brushing my teeth after every meal, as logically the viruses come in through the mouth, and so keeping it clean helps prevent invasion.

Also changing handkerchiefs regularly helps prevent microbes getting in through the nose.

Does anyone identify with any of this?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on March 19, 2020, 11:52:20 AM
Was asking on FB about what songs to sing from a Glasgow balcony and this is the best suggestion

https://youtu.be/MMNDwtvAtPg
   


Haud the bus....I've fond memories of listening yto Matt in the first half of a few gigigs.
....you didn't really want to hear him after 'hauf time'....he consumed a bootle of whatever alcoholic spirit was to hand.
That song was written by the brilliant Adam McNaughtan...and if anyone could find any links to his song "The Kamikase budgie' sung to the tune of 'The auld hundreth' - "All people that on earth do dwell", I'd be fair chuffed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 19, 2020, 12:10:34 PM
I have a question: If vaccination involves being given a small dose of the virus, is there a way in which we could naturally limit exposure to it, and by taking immediate action when experiencing symptoms such as sore throat, not allow the disease to take hold in the body?

My thinking is based on a two year period during which I went from driving a 2002-reg car to a 2007-reg, which had much better power steering. I didn't get a cold in that period. I then sold it and bought another 2002-reg, and pretty soon got a bad cold.

If the upper body and neck is overstrained, I think this predisposes to catching these viruses (obviously other factors are involved, such as not keeping warm).

I've now bought a 2008-reg with good power steering, and haven't caught a cold yet.

I'm also brushing my teeth after every meal, as logically the viruses come in through the mouth, and so keeping it clean helps prevent invasion.

Also changing handkerchiefs regularly helps prevent microbes getting in through the nose.

Does anyone identify with any of this?
Please keep your ill-informed non-sense to yourself Spud.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 19, 2020, 12:13:59 PM
... experiencing symptoms such as sore throat ...
A sore throat is not a common symptom of COVID-19. If you have a sore throat it is likely you don't have it but have a cold.

The most common symptoms are persistent dry cough and raised temperature.

Please can posters here not spread gross misinformation - we are dealing with unprecedentedly challenging times, and misinformation of this kind simply makes matters worse.

Spud - if you don't know what you are talking about, better to simply shut up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 19, 2020, 12:34:58 PM
I have a question: If vaccination involves being given a small dose of the virus, is there a way in which we could naturally limit exposure to it, and by taking immediate action when experiencing symptoms such as sore throat, not allow the disease to take hold in the body?

My thinking is based on a two year period during which I went from driving a 2002-reg car to a 2007-reg, which had much better power steering. I didn't get a cold in that period. I then sold it and bought another 2002-reg, and pretty soon got a bad cold.

If the upper body and neck is overstrained, I think this predisposes to catching these viruses (obviously other factors are involved, such as not keeping warm).

I've now bought a 2008-reg with good power steering, and haven't caught a cold yet.

I'm also brushing my teeth after every meal, as logically the viruses come in through the mouth, and so keeping it clean helps prevent invasion.

Also changing handkerchiefs regularly helps prevent microbes getting in through the nose.

Does anyone identify with any of this?
Spud
Your gags are much better than mine , Hilarious 😂😂😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 19, 2020, 12:53:59 PM
Spud
Your gags are much better than mine , Hilarious 😂😂😂
I wish that I thought that Spud was just having a laugh - sadly I don't think he is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on March 19, 2020, 12:58:09 PM
It does look as though the live-animal markets and some dietary habits in China may be responsible, and we ought to be able to say so without being accused of racism.

Tho' agree with you I just read about violence being meted out to asians on the street in America on account of the virus, following what stupid Trump said:- "Chinese virus" and "Wuhan Coronavirus". It's so wrong,Aas if it's anything to do with them & even in China nobody would have thought that would happen.

A sore throat is a symptom of the corona virus. One sufferer said it was as if she had broken glass in her throat.

Spud I dunno if changing your car caused your sore throats, never heard of that but it pays to be comfortable, stress lowers the immune system.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 19, 2020, 01:05:55 PM
I wish that I thought that Spud was just having a laugh - sadly I don't think he is.
prof
If he was being serious then a lot has just been explained regarding his other posts and his understanding of reality 😱

Go on Spud, tellus it was a spoof !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on March 19, 2020, 01:09:41 PM
Btw I was just chatting (messaging) with my daughter . Australia seems very far away at the moment 😪

I can believe that. Not long ago the bush fires were so worrying, now this. Glad she's OK anyway Walter & hope you are too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 19, 2020, 01:10:46 PM
A sore throat is a symptom of the corona virus. One sufferer said it was as if she had broken glass in her throat.
A sore throat is not a common symptom of corona-virus although may sometimes occur.

A sore throat, however, is a very common symptom of a cold. The key symptomatic features that suggest coronavirus are a persistent and usually dry, cough and raised body temperature. The third common symptom is shortness of breath.

If you have a sore throat, runny nose and are constantly sneezing you are likely to have a cold as none of these are common symptoms of coronavirus and runny/bunged-up nose and sneezing are rare for people with coronavirus infection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 19, 2020, 01:18:10 PM
I can believe that. Not long ago the bush fires were so worrying, now this. Glad she's OK anyway Walter & hope you are too.
Hi Robbie

We've been given a lot to think about recently haven't we ?

It's how we deal with it that makes us what we are

Keep safe and well yourself 😷
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 19, 2020, 01:56:23 PM
Our three grandsons are very stressed now their exams have been cancelled, they are awaiting the Government announcement as to what happens next.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 19, 2020, 02:01:15 PM
I can get that this is a fast moving situation but for so much of the govt decisions, they seem purely reactive. It doesn't feel like we are following a plan despite this all being something we could  have modelled for.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 19, 2020, 02:04:31 PM
This situation is unique in our lifetime, therefore it is very hard to know exactly how to handle it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 19, 2020, 02:08:45 PM
I can get that this is a fast moving situation but for so much of the govt decisions, they seem purely reactive. It doesn't feel like we are following a plan despite this all being something we could  have modelled for.
I think the government have been too slow and too reactive, but we really are in unchartered waters and things are really complex.

We own and run a nursery, that without income will go bust in weeks (or we'd have to lay off all our staff). The government's announcement yesterday that nurseries should only partially close and remain open for the children of key workers is sensible in theory and we wholeheartedly support playing our part in helping front-line workers being able to still be in work. But it doesn't work unless we are supported to remain financially viable as we, and most nurseries, are private sector organisations. Now we have insurance (many nurseries don't) which we think covers business interruption - and we think if forced to close we can claim. However if we aren't forced to close, but are remaining partially open we probably can't claim. So the government's own laudable goal actually makes the financial pressures worse not better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 19, 2020, 02:11:51 PM
...
If you have a sore throat, runny nose and are constantly sneezing you are likely to have a cold as none of these are common symptoms of coronavirus and runny/bunged-up nose and sneezing are rare for people with coronavirus infection.

This is true. However it is still possible to have a cold, or even flu, at the same time as covid-19. It is also possible to have and spread covid-19 without any symptoms at all. Hence the need for better tests and more actual testing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 19, 2020, 02:28:35 PM
This is true. However it is still possible to have a cold, or even flu, at the same time as covid-19. It is also possible to have and spread covid-19 without any symptoms at all. Hence the need for better tests and more actual testing.
I agree and it is of course possible that people have more than one infection. However if you have a runny nose or sore throat, but you don't have a dry cough or fever then it is unlikely you have covid-19.

Clearly if you have no symptoms only testing will tell you for sure, but however much there is an increase in testing it isn't likely to be used for people without symptoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 19, 2020, 03:17:36 PM
This situation is unique in our lifetime, therefore it is very hard to know exactly how to handle it.
Lr
Please keep safe and well, your posts are invaluable 😷
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 19, 2020, 04:16:02 PM
I see Ainsley Harriot is now self isolating .
He's sick of being asked if he's got the Covonia virus

Fact-checked by Walter 👍
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 19, 2020, 04:52:50 PM
This situation is unique in our lifetime, therefore it is very hard to know exactly how to handle it.
i doubt that anyone does. Take care
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 19, 2020, 04:57:10 PM
Lr
Please keep safe and well, your posts are invaluable 😷


Thank you. :)

I am doing my best to keep out of coronavirus mischief, but that isn't always easy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 19, 2020, 05:09:45 PM
Well, nice to see you being so unbothered by it then. But no, let's not question dodgy eating habits. Do you go along with that herd immunity stuff, other than through vaccines, even if it means a high amount of deaths? After all, that's just nature too.
I’m just not panicking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 19, 2020, 05:12:45 PM
It does look as though the live-animal markets and some dietary habits in China may be responsible, and we ought to be able to say so without being accused of racism.
There have been live animal markets for millennia, also Chinese dietary habits. So why is this happening now? The answer is because it can and it’s not the first time in history.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on March 19, 2020, 05:25:10 PM
Agree it isn't easy LR. Sorry about your grandchildren's exams, a couple of my colleagues have children due to do GCSEs and A levels & now won't, wht a headache!

It's weird working from home. I do bring work home sometimes but that's not the same as having to! I'll get used to it, husband is doing the same. My phone hardly stopped this afternoon.

Seen Jeremy's posts, I too am not panicking but a little worried about frail family members. We'll do everything we can for them, they know that but it would be lovely to be able to scoop them up and bring them here which we would in different circumstances. Eldest daughter pregnant too but she's at home & well.

This situation is unique in our lifetime, therefore it is very hard to know exactly how to handle it.
That seems to be how all feel including our government.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 19, 2020, 05:47:42 PM
My(younger) son called in briefly this afternoon, and it was quite strange for us to keep a distance between us, but it was sensible. He showed me a few more pictures of Reuben so that was nice.

Earlier I put on my coat and hat and walked down the road and back - out about 20 minutes. Air a bit damp but not raining, such grey, misty light though. Only one person passed by.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on March 19, 2020, 05:58:38 PM
It is very strange keeping a distance from loved ones.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 19, 2020, 06:36:45 PM
Another withering piece by John Crace regarding this utterly useless shower of fuckwits who are masquerading as a government.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/19/what-we-wouldnt-give-for-a-gordon-brown-or-john-major-right-now
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 19, 2020, 08:27:11 PM
Another withering piece by John Crace regarding this utterly useless shower of fuckwits who are masquerading as a government.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/19/what-we-wouldnt-give-for-a-gordon-brown-or-john-major-right-now
gordo
Why don't you knock on the door of 10 Downing Street and offer your services .
You obviously can do a better job of it .
Or you could just STFU 😷
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 19, 2020, 08:56:47 PM
gordo
Why don't you knock on the door of 10 Downing Street and offer your services .
You obviously can do a better job of it .
Or you could just STFU 😷
Anyone could do a better job. Or do you want to remove your tongue from Johnson's arse?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 19, 2020, 09:04:26 PM
Another withering piece by John Crace regarding this utterly useless shower of fuckwits who are masquerading as a government.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/19/what-we-wouldnt-give-for-a-gordon-brown-or-john-major-right-now

I doubt if there's anybody who would be handling this well.

Admittedly, the key worker thing is a complete horlicks. It seems to me the government is turning the education system into the largest ever child minding system.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 19, 2020, 09:13:53 PM
I doubt if there's anybody who would be handling this well.

Admittedly, the key worker thing is a complete horlicks. It seems to me the government is turning the education system into the largest ever child minding system.
There is a difference in thinking no one could be perfect and the PM is a useless pile of lying racist incompetent shitte
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 19, 2020, 09:21:37 PM
Anyone could do a better job. Or do you want to remove your tongue from Johnson's arse?
.....and stick it up yours ?

From the producers of The Beano comes a new exciting comic for your amusement

Gordo & Saney Do Government

out soon FREE to the deluded    Order your copy NOW !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 19, 2020, 09:24:21 PM
.....and stick it up yours ?

From the producers of The Beeno comes a new exciting comic for your amusement

Gordo & Saney Do Government

out soon FREE to the deluded    Order your copy NOW !
i love your adoration of the fuckwit PM.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 19, 2020, 09:27:01 PM
i love your adoration of the fuckwit PM.

There's a difference between adoring the PM and recognising frothing at the mouth hatred of the PM in other people.

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 19, 2020, 09:33:08 PM
i love your adoration of the fuckwit PM.
what pisses me off are people who constantly whinge and fuckin whine .

Because that really helps doesn't it !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 19, 2020, 09:51:18 PM
There's a difference between adoring the PM and recognising frothing at the mouth hatred of the PM in other people.
Indeed, but you seem very confused here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 19, 2020, 09:52:14 PM
what pisses me off are people who constantly whinge and fuckin whine .

Because that really helps doesn't it !
You must be awfully pissed off at yourself
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 19, 2020, 10:05:41 PM
gordo
Why don't you knock on the door of 10 Downing Street and offer your services .
You obviously can do a better job of it .
Or you could just STFU 😷

Especially galling when the fuckwit concerned (and his party) does not have much electoral support here in Scotland, being voting in by the Brexit-supporting masses elsewhere in the UK, and now that an important issue other than Brexit has emerged we can see just how reckless these said masses were last year in voting as they did - as highlighted in the articles I posted links to: Johnson is clearly out of his depth.

You could do a better job, Walter, and getting back to Coronavirus we've had his usual optimistic 'we'll turn the tide within the next 12 weeks' soundbite earlier so let's see how effective he will be in his leadership and political skills in these coming weeks - though I can't see a current basis for having much in the way of confidence in him, and then of course, as the Coronavirus emergency (which it is) proceeds, the clock is ticking towards the 31st December.

Does Johnson have the leadership and political skills to manage these two major issues at the same time? Personally, I doubt it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 19, 2020, 10:20:14 PM
You must be awfully pissed off at yourself
you have mortally wounded me with the power of that comment 💪
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 19, 2020, 10:27:19 PM
Especially galling when the fuckwit concerned (and his party) does not have much electoral support here in Scotland, being voting in by the Brexit-supporting masses elsewhere in the UK, and now that an important issue other than Brexit has emerged we can see just how reckless these said masses were last year in voting as they did - as highlighted in the articles I posted links to: Johnson is clearly out of his depth.

You could do a better job, Walter, and getting back to Coronavirus we've had his usual optimistic 'we'll turn the tide within the next 12 weeks' soundbite earlier so let's see how effective he will be in his leadership and political skills in these coming weeks - though I can't see a current basis for having much in the way of confidence in him, and then of course, as the Coronavirus emergency (which it is) proceeds, the clock is ticking towards the 31st December.

Does Johnson have the leadership and political skills to manage these two major issues at the same time? Personally, I doubt it.
oh Gordo

I think STFU would have been the better option 😆

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 20, 2020, 02:44:44 AM
A sore throat is not a common symptom of COVID-19. If you have a sore throat it is likely you don't have it but have a cold.

The most common symptoms are persistent dry cough and raised temperature.

Please can posters here not spread gross misinformation - we are dealing with unprecedentedly challenging times, and misinformation of this kind simply makes matters worse.

Spud - if you don't know what you are talking about, better to simply shut up.
Sorry I got that wrong. I heard that the virus sits in the throat for several days before moving into the lower respiratory tract, so assumed that sore throat might be an initial symptom. Still, if the point of entry is the nose and mouth then it still makes sense to concentrate on hygiene for those areas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 20, 2020, 03:31:53 AM
Apparently our national health and welfare institute isn't counting the confirmed cases themselves anymore, only colecting data that different regions themselves declare. Also I wonder what you have to do to be tested. Seems to go against WHO advice (test, test, test). Almost like they've given up and are just preparing for the worst. Makes me a bit worried.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 20, 2020, 07:32:26 AM
A question or two to those who so virulently oppose the PM and seem to consider everything that he, plus the Science, Medical and Finance peoplesay as worthless: who, do you suppose, would in the Conservative Party make abetter job of it? Or do you think there is someone in the Labour Party? Are you thinking of Jeremy Corbyn? I sincerely hope not. Or what about Salmond? The thought of him in charge of a country makes me shudder.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 20, 2020, 07:36:19 AM
The Tesco Express near my place of work normally opens from 06:00 to 23:00, but is now closing at 22:00 instead. What difference they think lopping an hour off in the late evening will make is anybody's guess. What it does do is inconvenience me and many of my fellow workers at the Mail Centre on the late shift, finishing at 22:00. who often pop in after finishing work at 22:00. Bloody tokenism, that's what it is. Twats.
(I thought I'd made a post like this last night ,but I can't find it. If a similar post is on another thread somewhere, that's why.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 20, 2020, 07:40:11 AM
A question or two to those who so virulently oppose the PM and seem to consider everything that he, plus the Science, Medical and Finance peoplesay as worthless: who, do you suppose, would in the Conservative Party make abetter job of it? Or do you think there is someone in the Labour Party? Are you thinking of Jeremy Corbyn? I sincerely hope not. Or what about Salmond? The thought of him in charge of a country makes me shudder.
Why not Corbyn? He'd make a better job of it (or anything) than Bojo the Clown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 20, 2020, 07:42:56 AM
A question or two to those who so virulently oppose the PM and seem to consider everything that he, plus the Science, Medical and Finance peoplesay as worthless: who, do you suppose, would in the Conservative Party make abetter job of it? Or do you think there is someone in the Labour Party? Are you thinking of Jeremy Corbyn? I sincerely hope not. Or what about Salmond? The thought of him in charge of a country makes me shudder.

I think you need to separate the politicians from the experts in terms of knowledge and competence, Susan, and that the current PM is a fuckwit really isn't that much of a surprise, since he has long since demonstrated his fuckwittery.

Of course some of us here in Scotland would prefer not to be governed by a political party that has minimal support here in Scotland, and others of us would prefer that Scotland was no longer part of the UK, but Salmond is no longer a political figure here and depending on how things go today, or over the next few days depending on how long the jury takes, his options may be constrained.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 20, 2020, 08:07:30 AM
Sorry I got that wrong. I heard that the virus sits in the throat for several days before moving into the lower respiratory tract, so assumed that sore throat might be an initial symptom.
Then perhaps you should actually find out stuff before posting things that are wrong and could, in the rumour mill kind of way, lead to people thinking that if they have a sore throat they have the virus or worse still if they don't have a sore throat they don't have the virus.

Still, if the point of entry is the nose and mouth then it still makes sense to concentrate on hygiene for those areas.
No it doesn't - cleaning the nose and mouth doesn't help. Why - because the route of infection is typically either breathing in virus in aerosol from a contaminated person breathing out, coughing etc. Having a clean nose wont prevent you breathing that air into your trachea or lungs. Secondly surface borne contamination that gets onto the hands and then touching the face with the hands - again having a clean nose and mouth doesn't help.

And that's why the focus, quite rightly is, social distancing and catch it, bill it, kill it to reduce the likelihood of infection for the former route. And hand washing/avoiding touching the face for the latter.

Why do you just make up stuff Spud? Please can you keep your ill-informed and bizarre ideas to yourself. In normal circumstances this is just irritating, but under the current circumstances rumours that take hold and act against reducing infection can literally result in people dying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 20, 2020, 08:30:48 AM
I think you need to separate the politicians from the experts in terms of knowledge and competence, Susan, and that the current PM is a fuckwit really isn't that much of a surprise, since he has long since demonstrated his fuckwittery.

Of course some of us here in Scotland would prefer not to be governed by a political party that has minimal support here in Scotland, and others of us would prefer that Scotland was no longer part of the UK, but Salmond is no longer a political figure here and depending on how things go today, or over the next few days depending on how long the jury takes, his options may be constrained.

Of the current party leaders I think Nicola Sturgeon seems the most competent to handle the crisis. She seems to be able to listen to advice and come to firm decisions that can actually work, without denial, prevarication, ideology and other distractions. I think people would follow her directions/instructions?

John McDonnell seems to have firm ideas on how to handle the economic side - it sounds good but I don't know whether they would work or not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 20, 2020, 08:36:19 AM
Then perhaps you should actually find out stuff before posting things that are wrong and could, in the rumour mill kind of way, lead to people thinking that if they have a sore throat they have the virus or worse still if they don't have a sore throat they don't have the virus.
"We all began with a sore throat and hoarseness, some had a ‘strange’ headache. Some of us also had an upset stomach, this then moved into slight breathlessness before a fever began which came and went."
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18319115.coronavirus-positive-cases-covid-19-say-symptoms-start-simple-sore-throat---people-can-recover/

Quote
No it doesn't - cleaning the nose and mouth doesn't help. Why - because the route of infection is typically either breathing in virus in aerosol from a contaminated person breathing out, coughing etc. Having a clean nose wont prevent you breathing that air into your trachea or lungs. Secondly surface borne contamination that gets onto the hands and then touching the face with the hands - again having a clean nose and mouth doesn't help.

And that's why the focus, quite rightly is, social distancing and catch it, bill it, kill it to reduce the likelihood of infection for the former route. And hand washing/avoiding touching the face for the latter.

Why do you just make up stuff Spud? Please can you keep your ill-informed and bizarre ideas to yourself. In normal circumstances this is just irritating, but under the current circumstances rumours that take hold and act against reducing infection can literally result in people dying.
I've seen a spoof e-mail with that kind of rumour. If you read my original idea, I said that once exposed to the virus one might be able to limit its proliferation in the upper respiratory tract through oral and nasal hygiene. Yes, if you breathe it straight into your trachea it might take hold more quickly, but I'm just adding to the advice about not touching the face, washing hands, social distancing etc.
If you don't like someone trying to help, that's your problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 20, 2020, 09:16:38 AM
If you read my original idea, I said that once exposed to the virus one might be able to limit its proliferation in the upper respiratory tract through oral and nasal hygiene.
And how exactly would that work given that viruses proliferation inside our cells?!? The only way you can stop the virus proliferating in the upper respiratory tract through oral and nasal hygiene would be to kill the infected cells, and that's what our immune systems will be doing anyhow.

You clearly know nothing about how viruses function and how viral infections work

Yes, if you breathe it straight into your trachea it might take hold more quickly, but I'm just adding to the advice about not touching the face, washing hands, social distancing etc.
But by spouting scientifically illiterate nonsense you aren't adding to the sensible advice based on science - rather you are distracting from it.

If you don't like someone trying to help, that's your problem.
But you aren't helping Spud, that's the point. If you want to help (and I'm sure you do) the best thing you can do is to shut up about your ill-informed nonsense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 20, 2020, 09:37:38 AM
Pardon me if I sound a bit smug, but I've been vindicated twice over by today's 'Grauniad'.
Firstly, I said a day or two ago on this thread that if a vaccine was developed, the testing would hopefully be reduced so that it could be made available as soon as possible, testing of new drugs generally being excessive, in the opinion of some experts. That opinion was pooh-poohed by another member, but it transpires that that is exactly what is likely to happen: the testing will be "accelerated" (and it is possible that it will be available much sooner that the 12-18 months originally estimated).
Secondly, I said that aiming for herd immunity was a ridiculous idea, as it could only be achieved at the cost of hundreds of thousands of deaths, in the absense of a vaccine, which would be an abject failure. Nevertheless, it appeared that that was the aim, but now the government has done a reverse ferret, and announced that the official policy is suppression, not herd immunity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on March 20, 2020, 09:54:58 AM
A question or two to those who so virulently oppose the PM and seem to consider everything that he, plus the Science, Medical and Finance peoplesay as worthless: who, do you suppose, would in the Conservative Party make abetter job of it? Or do you think there is someone in the Labour Party? Are you thinking of Jeremy Corbyn? I sincerely hope not. Or what about Salmond? The thought of him in charge of a country makes me shudder.

I have watched a couple of the early evening Downing Street press briefings. To me they are all about Alexander Johnson. He stands at a lectern flanked by two medical/scientific experts. Every question that is asked he answers himself - irrespective of whether he has any specialist knowledge at all. Only when he has finished his extended peroration does he hand over to his flanking academic/medic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 10:26:27 AM
Pardon me if I sound a bit smug, but I've been vindicated twice over by today's 'Grauniad'.
Firstly, I said a day or two ago on this thread that if a vaccine was developed, the testing would hopefully be reduced so that it could be made available as soon as possible, testing of new drugs generally being excessive, in the opinion of some experts. That opinion was pooh-poohed by another member, but it transpires that that is exactly what is likely to happen: the testing will be "accelerated" (and it is possible that it will be available much sooner that the 12-18 months originally estimated).
Secondly, I said that aiming for herd immunity was a ridiculous idea, as it could only be achieved at the cost of hundreds of thousands of deaths, in the absense of a vaccine, which would be an abject failure. Nevertheless, it appeared that that was the aim, but now the government has done a reverse ferret, and announced that the official policy is suppression, not herd immunity.

I think you are referring to me. I didn't 'pooh pooh'that it might be dine quicker here but rather your suggestion that all medical testing was unnecessarily overlong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 20, 2020, 10:29:12 AM
I think you are referring to me. I didn't 'pooh pooh'that it might be dine quicker here but rather your suggestion that all medical testing was unnecessarily overlong.
I was thinking of LR, actually, though I now recall that you did say something.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 20, 2020, 10:38:19 AM
If the testing isn't thorough enough it could cause more problems than the one it is meant to solve.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 20, 2020, 10:41:25 AM
If the testing isn't thorough enough it could cause more problems than the one it is meant to solve.
It needs to be thorough enough, but not too thorough. Don't reply "depends what you mean by 'too thorough'", as you did last time, or i will reply "depends what you mean by 'thorough enough'".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 10:42:07 AM
If the testing isn't thorough enough it could cause more problems than the one it is meant to solve.
That's true of all testing. It is a balance of risk. In this case I can see the logic speeding it up
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 10:43:45 AM
This is appalling

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-51972372
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 10:45:54 AM
And this is idiocy


https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/wetherspoons-tim-martin-coronavirus-shutting-pubs-parliament-a4392611.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sebastian Toe on March 20, 2020, 11:14:21 AM
You can add beer to the panic buying, stockpiling fucktards list now. All canned beers and lager and most bottled beer (not the expensive stuff!) gone from my two local supermarkets!

Looking on the news and social media  it strikes me that the most likely places in the UK to catch this virus, is in the most crowded, non social distancing areas i.e. panic-buying crowds fighting their way into supermarkets!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 20, 2020, 11:16:32 AM
Alcohol should be the least important purchase one makes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 20, 2020, 11:21:50 AM
I have watched a couple of the early evening Downing Street press briefings. To me they are all about Alexander Johnson. He stands at a lectern flanked by two medical/scientific experts. Every question that is asked he answers himself - irrespective of whether he has any specialist knowledge at all. Only when he has finished his extended peroration does he hand over to his flanking academic/medic.

Without decisive and informed leadership we can end up with a societal breakdown worse than the medical crisis.

What is needed  for both is confidence in the government and Johnson is not helping. That is why we are seeing stockpiling, people ignoring distancing, sacked or evicted ...

Saying we can "turn this around in 12 weeks" is clearly not credible. Relying on people working out for themselves, separately, what to do for for the best is clearly not credible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 20, 2020, 11:23:16 AM
Alcohol should be the least important purchase one makes.
is somebody working you with their foot ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sebastian Toe on March 20, 2020, 11:23:38 AM
No, party poppers, decorative covers for mobile phones and books on how to improve self-rightiousness, amongst many other things are less important than alcohol.
 ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 20, 2020, 11:30:26 AM
Indeed, but you seem very confused here.
Your inability to read what other people write and understand what they mean is not confusing. It's a common human trait.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 20, 2020, 11:31:52 AM
Especially galling when the fuckwit concerned (and his party) does not have much electoral support here in Scotland,
The Scottish government is doing its own measures. If you don't like what's going on there, whine about them.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 20, 2020, 11:40:08 AM
This is appalling

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-51972372

And also needless. Even if you sack the staff, there's no reason to turf them out of their accommodation because you clearly aren't hiring replacements.

Hopefully this action is illegal and the management will be in serious trouble.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 20, 2020, 11:41:34 AM
Alcohol should be the least important purchase one makes.

One of the most important. ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 20, 2020, 11:50:11 AM
Alcohol should be the least important purchase one makes.
Alcohol, as a legal drug, is actually pretty high on the importance list. It's the only way I have to try to escape the misery of life in the UK at the moment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 20, 2020, 11:58:36 AM
I think you need to separate the politicians from the experts in terms of knowledge and competence, Susan, and that the current PM is a fuckwit really isn't that much of a surprise, since he has long since demonstrated his fuckwittery.

Of course some of us here in Scotland would prefer not to be governed by a political party that has minimal support here in Scotland, and others of us would prefer that Scotland was no longer part of the UK, but Salmond is no longer a political figure here and depending on how things go today, or over the next few days depending on how long the jury takes, his options may be constrained.
Gordo , you're doing it again
It's like the high pitched whine of a gnat in your ear
What's needed are solutions , not the whinging of a embittered Scotsman .
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 20, 2020, 12:02:17 PM
This is appalling

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-51972372
i hope the government take it over as a hospital for the duration ,
Then burn it down for sanitation reasons when it's all over
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 20, 2020, 12:03:38 PM
Alcohol, as a legal drug, is actually pretty high on the importance list. It's the only way I have to try to escape the misery of life in the UK at the moment.

That sounds bad ... are you requesting suggestions for alternative ways?

There is a run on alcohol, my normal wine store has sent me an e-mail suspending orders, though Waitrose seemed to have plenty at the expensive end earlier this morning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 20, 2020, 12:04:56 PM
i hope the government take it over as a hospital for the duration ,
Then burn it down for sanitation reasons when it's all over

<thumbs up thingy>
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 20, 2020, 12:07:55 PM
Gordo , you're doing it again
It's like the high pitched whine of a gnat in your ear
What's needed are solutions , not the whinging of a embittered Scotsman .

You mean like a PM who is not a fuckwit, not a Tory, with a history of leadership skills and political competence, and is supported by other competent politicians?




 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 20, 2020, 12:11:54 PM
That sounds bad ... are you requesting suggestions for alternative ways?
Nope. I'm quite happy with my current solution.
Quote
There is a run on alcohol, my normal wine store has sent me an e-mail suspending orders, though Waitrose seemed to have plenty at the expensive end earlier this morning.
As long as single malts don't run out, I'll be fine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 20, 2020, 12:15:09 PM
My local Co-op was out of milk, granulated sugar, most fresh veg., and loads of other stuff this morning. Fortunately, Nisa, just round the corner, was much better stocked - and, oddly, had some Co-op own-brand products on the shelves!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 20, 2020, 12:20:15 PM
Gordo , you're doing it again
It's like the high pitched whine of a gnat in your ear
What's needed are solutions , not the whinging of a embittered Scotsman .

Indeed, solutions. Unfortunately the current govt is out of stock.

Matt Hancock was on TV this morning talking about delivering protective equipment and how difficult it is to organise. Give the job to fucking Amazon then. They'd have been there yesterday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 20, 2020, 12:22:53 PM
You mean like a PM who is not a fuckwit, not a Tory, with a history of leadership skills and political competence, and is supported by other competent politicians?
i cannot get rid of that pesky fuckin gnat

Btw , who would want to be PM right now ?

Me me me Gordo , I've got all the answers . Don't think so old chap 🍻
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 20, 2020, 12:32:18 PM
i cannot get rid of that pesky fuckin gnat

Btw , who would want to be PM right now ?

Me me me Gordo , I've got all the answers . Don't think so old chap 🍻

I don't - but I do have reasonable questions, and given this virus and the insanity of Brexit are live issues then to point out the uselessness of the UK government seems reasonable to me.

Mind you, if they do fuck up, and they will, it all helps the case for Scottish independence..
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 20, 2020, 12:39:55 PM
I don't - but I do have reasonable questions, and given this virus and the insanity of Brexit are live issues then to point out the uselessness of the UK government seems reasonable to me.

Mind you, if they do fuck up, and they will, it all helps the case for Scottish independence..
independance ? I hope so Gordon
I'm sick of the whining .
My son and his wife ( a brewer anda doctor) left Scotland after living there for 7 years mainly because they were sick to death of the whining and whinging
Sad really !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 12:41:36 PM
And also needless. Even if you sack the staff, there's no reason to turf them out of their accommodation because you clearly aren't hiring replacements.

Hopefully this action is illegal and the management will be in serious trouble.

Yeah, I hope so. Well done to MacDonalds Hotel for taking them in
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 12:44:10 PM
Alcohol, as a legal drug, is actually pretty high on the importance list. It's the only way I have to try to escape the misery of life in the UK at the moment.
Agree. Now having virtual pints with friends using Zoom
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 12:47:18 PM
Indeed, solutions. Unfortunately the current govt is out of stock.

Matt Hancock was on TV this morning talking about delivering protective equipment and how difficult it is to organise. Give the job to fucking Amazon then. They'd have been there yesterday.

Again, it's stuff like this I really struggle to understand. It's like there has been no preparatory planning for a scenario that we have had at least 3 previous warnings of.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 20, 2020, 12:55:04 PM
Fortunately, Nisa, just round the corner, was much better stocked - and, oddly, had some Co-op own-brand products on the shelves!
The owners probably bought them at the Co-Op.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 12:55:52 PM
independance ? I hope so Gordon
I'm sick of the whining .
My son and his wife ( a brewer anda doctor) left Scotland after living there for 7 years mainly because they were sick to death of the whining and whinging
Sad really !
There's an obvious verb conjugation going on here.

I raise reasonable objections
You whinge
They are whiny snowflakes
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 20, 2020, 12:58:31 PM
Mind you, if they do fuck up, and they will, it all helps the case for Scottish independence..

It's so convenient for your government to have a bogeyman in Westminster to blame for all their fuckups isn't it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 20, 2020, 01:01:18 PM
There's an obvious verb conjugation going on here.

I raise reasonable objections
You whinge
They are whiny snowflakes
he , she , we thank you for your invaluable observation .

GIRUY 😘
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 20, 2020, 01:01:55 PM
I don't want to go off topic but SusanDoris and her support for Johnson needs addressing. The reason some of us so distrust this man is because he is untrustworthy.

Some may have forgotten this. Some of us haven't:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/14/journalist-stuart-collier-boris-johnson-phone-call-darius-guppy-demands-apology

A man who can do this is quite capable of doing anything. That includes floating the idea of herd immunity through mass deaths, just in case he can get away with it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 20, 2020, 01:04:16 PM
It's so convenient for your government to have a bogeyman in Westminster to blame for all their fuckups isn't it.

It certainly helps the case, since the more useless the UK government are the easier it will be to convince the Scottish electorate to ditch them when the opportunity arises.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 20, 2020, 01:12:39 PM
I don't want to go off topic but SusanDoris and her support for Johnson needs addressing. The reason some of us so distrust this man is because he is untrustworthy.

Some may have forgotten this. Some of us haven't:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/14/journalist-stuart-collier-boris-johnson-phone-call-darius-guppy-demands-apology

A man who can do this is quite capable of doing anything. That includes floating the idea of herd immunity through mass deaths, just in case he can get away with it.
that last bit ;
An obvious thing to consider , it was one of my first thoughts too
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 01:22:14 PM
he , she , we thank you for your invaluable observation .

GIRUY 😘
  Give me  an H
Give me a Y
Give me a P
Give me an O
Give me a C
Give me an R
Give me an I
Give me an S
Give me a Y
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 01:27:54 PM
Looking like London bars and restaurants to be ordered to shut. Think that will be extended to all UK by end of weekend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 20, 2020, 01:31:25 PM
  Give me  an H
Give me a Y
Give me a P
Give me an O
Give me a C
Give me an R
Give me an I
Give me an S
Give me a Y
saney
It's not real medicine you know , put more water in it

Cheers old chap , I'm off to find some vitals now and some fresh water !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on March 20, 2020, 01:31:40 PM
It's so convenient for your government to have a bogeyman in Westminster to blame for all their fuckups isn't it.
   




Unfortunately, some of the measures announced by the liar Johnson and Cummings' new chancellor in the English government affect us.
Would that they did not.
Till then, the English government is fair game for all the contempt it deserves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 20, 2020, 01:47:27 PM
That includes floating the idea of herd immunity through mass deaths
Let's see if he actually does that before we condemn him for it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 01:48:10 PM
saney
It's not real medicine you know , put more water in it

Cheers old chap , I'm off to find some vitals now and some fresh water !

Good luck.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 01:50:18 PM



Unfortunately, some of the measures announced by the liar Johnson and Cummings' new chancellor in the English government affect us.
Would that they did not.
Till then, the English government is fair game for all the contempt it deserves.
Despite what you may wish, this is still a UK govt. To hold them to account we need to understand that rather than trying political nonsense such as referring to it as an English govt.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 20, 2020, 01:50:32 PM
It certainly helps the case, since the more useless the UK government are the easier it will be to convince the Scottish electorate to ditch them when the opportunity arises.
But whatever the UK government does on coronavirus is irrelevant to Scotland since it has its own government that can do what it thinks is the right thing (with the exception of closing the border to England). If it's going badly for you in Scotland, it's Sturgeon's fault, not Johnson's.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 20, 2020, 01:52:08 PM
   




Unfortunately, some of the measures announced by the liar Johnson and Cummings' new chancellor in the English government affect us.
Which ones?

Quote
Till then, the English government is fair game for all the contempt it deserves.
England doesn't have a government, it is governed (at least nominally) by the British government.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 20, 2020, 01:57:09 PM
I don't want to go off topic but SusanDoris and her support for Johnson needs addressing. The reason some of us so distrust this man is because he is untrustworthy.
It matters not a jot how much, or whether, I trust him. The fact is he is in the position he is in because many Labour Party supporters voted against their leader. I challenge any of you to say how they would do better. We cannot know if someone else would have, because Boris is the one who has the position. Please do not assume my trust or otherwise in any particular politician.  And I did not vote for him at any time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 20, 2020, 02:09:20 PM
But whatever the UK government does on coronavirus is irrelevant to Scotland since it has its own government that can do what it thinks is the right thing (with the exception of closing the border to England). If it's going badly for you in Scotland, it's Sturgeon's fault, not Johnson's.

It (Coronavirus) isn't going to go well for anyone of course, but I'd say that Nicola Sturgeon shows more leadership and competence attributes in dealing with this crisis than does Boris Johnson, and his crass remark the other day is just one example of his comparative failings.

Moreover, there is still the Brexit issue in the background, which is primarily a Tory-driven policy and the key issue that saw the Tories elected, so if anything the performance of Boris Johnson is crucial. For example, should the Coronavirus issue be one that lasts for a good chunk of the rest of this calendar year, as seems likely, is Johnson still aiming for a no-deal scenario in December or not, and why is he not already addressing this aspect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 20, 2020, 02:11:04 PM
It matters not a jot how much, or whether, I trust him. The fact is he is in the position he is in because many Labour Party supporters voted against their leader. I challenge any of you to say how they would do better. We cannot know if someone else would have, because Boris is the one who has the position. Please do not assume my trust or otherwise in any particular politician.  And I did not vote for him at any time.
well said SD 👍
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 02:12:02 PM
It matters not a jot how much, or whether, I trust him. The fact is he is in the position he is in because many Labour Party supporters voted against their leader. I challenge any of you to say how they would do better. We cannot know if someone else would have, because Boris is the one who has the position. Please do not assume my trust or otherwise in any particular politician.  And I did not vote for him at any time.
Not lie.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 20, 2020, 02:19:45 PM
Food is scarce.   We are going from shop to shop, as the supermarkets are mainly empty.   But don't worry, Boris in control.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 20, 2020, 02:45:41 PM
Food is scarce.   We are going from shop to shop, as the supermarkets are mainly empty.   But don't worry, Boris in control.
co-op filling station has run out of diesel , refineries can't keep up with demand !

Seems odd since no ones going anywhere ?
Found one of those old fashioned garages with one pump outside but was rationed to £10 worth
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 20, 2020, 03:10:56 PM
It matters not a jot how much, or whether, I trust him. The fact is he is in the position he is in because many Labour Party supporters voted against their leader. I challenge any of you to say how they would do better. We cannot know if someone else would have, because Boris is the one who has the position. Please do not assume my trust or otherwise in any particular politician.  And I did not vote for him at any time.

Oh ffs Susan. Pedantic somersaults. Of course you voted for him
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 20, 2020, 03:27:55 PM
Not lie.
Well, unless you expand that, I have no idea what you are saying or implying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 20, 2020, 03:33:11 PM
But whatever the UK government does on coronavirus is irrelevant to Scotland since it has its own government that can do what it thinks is the right thing (with the exception of closing the border to England). If it's going badly for you in Scotland, it's Sturgeon's fault, not Johnson's.

Strangely, closing the border and/or other internal UK borders may well make sense in the current circumstances: Cleaning up the infection in defined areas and preventing recurrence in them.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 20, 2020, 03:35:44 PM
Oh ffs Susan. Pedantic somersaults. Of course you voted for him
No you are not correct. In the vote for a new leader I voted for anyone else available other than Boris. In the General Election I voted for my local MP, who has done, over the years, a pretty good job.   
I notice you have not put forward, or backed up with evidence,  a name  as a far better alternative!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 20, 2020, 03:39:03 PM
co-op filling station has run out of diesel , refineries can't keep up with demand !

Seems odd since no ones going anywhere ?
Found one of those old fashioned garages with one pump outside but was rationed to £10 worth

Very odd since the lack of demand for petrol leading to a crash in price - that was not matched by a reduction in supply by the ME/Russia. Is that something that applied to petrol or kerosene but not diesel?

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 20, 2020, 03:41:43 PM
Surely, food rationing is imperative.  I can't keep going to every shop in the area looking for a loaf of bread, I'm supposed to be at home, as over 70.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 03:47:00 PM
No you are not correct. In the vote for a new leader I voted for anyone else available other than Boris. In the General Election I voted for my local MP, who has done, over the years, a pretty good job.   
I notice you have not put forward, or backed up with evidence,  a name  as a far better alternative!
Anyone who isn't a lying racist incompetent thug.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 03:48:41 PM
Well, unless you expand that, I have no idea what you are saying or implying.
He lies. Or have you just not followed politics?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 20, 2020, 03:50:06 PM
Again, it's stuff like this I really struggle to understand. It's like there has been no preparatory planning for a scenario that we have had at least 3 previous warnings of.

We were warned and have known this was possible at least since 2003. Since then we have had Iraq war, global banking crisis, austerity (with UC) and brexit. My suspicion is that no one has looked at or kept any contingency plans up to date.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 20, 2020, 03:52:23 PM
Very odd since the lack of demand for petrol leading to a crash in price - that was not matched by a reduction in supply by the ME/Russia. Is that something that applied to petrol or kerosene but not diesel?
my understanding is you can't make petrol without making diesel first
My guess is they're holding back diesel for the distribution network
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 20, 2020, 03:56:06 PM
Anyone who isn't a lying racist incompetent thug.
aww bless , do you spend hours at night crying into your pillow ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 20, 2020, 03:56:24 PM
Surely, food rationing is imperative.  I can't keep going to every shop in the area looking for a loaf of bread, I'm supposed to be at home, as over 70.

It has not been needed elsewhere. It is nothing to do with any shortages but the mentality of a population that elected a known liar as PM, supporting policies based on lies or self-deception.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 03:58:30 PM
aww bless , do you spend hours at night crying into your pillow ?
No. I might thump it on occasion when I read posts as boring as your one here.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 04:00:33 PM
We were warned and have known this was possible at least since 2003. Since then we have had Iraq war, global banking crisis, austerity (with UC) and brexit. My suspicion is that no one has looked at or kept any contingency plans up to date.
It definitely feels that way. Policy seems mainly reactive and instead of announcing a plan, they announce things such as schools closing and then say plan is to follow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 20, 2020, 04:05:22 PM
No you are not correct. In the vote for a new leader I voted for anyone else available other than Boris. In the General Election I voted for my local MP, who has done, over the years, a pretty good job.   
I notice you have not put forward, or backed up with evidence,  a name  as a far better alternative!

More playing with words. You voted Tory. You voted for Boris as pm. I voted Labour knowing that if theyd won Corbyn would be pm. You wssentially endorsed a lying bully who tried to get someone beaten up. Your choice. Live with it dont try to wriggle out of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 04:08:47 PM
Scotrail saying they are finishing most services at 7pm on a regular basis next week. Not sure how this supports emergency workers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 04:10:05 PM
Marina Hyde


https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/20/boris-johnson-covid-19-prime-minister-brexit?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 20, 2020, 04:16:15 PM
No. I might thump it on occasion when I read posts as boring as your one here.
saney
In my head I just changed "crying" into " biting"
Now I cant rid myself of that terrible mental image 😂😂😂

Stay safe and well and don't forget ; keep in touch with yourself 😷
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 20, 2020, 04:17:26 PM
He lies. Or have you just not followed politics?
Well, I have certainly  never said that he does not lie.

I do not know whether he has lied about the virus, or if he has, what aspect it was, but he is not making entirely unilateral decisions. There are others working alongside him, including scientists and doctors.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 04:19:50 PM
Well, I have certainly  never said that he does not lie.

I do not know whether he has lied about the virus, or if he has, what aspect it was, but he is not making entirely unilateral decisions. There are others working alongside him, including scientists and doctors.
  And are they saying it can be beaten 12 weeks? Or that there has been sufficient money put into the NHS? Or that the planning for this has been sufficient?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 04:21:57 PM
saney
In my head I just changed "crying" into " biting"
Now I cant rid myself of that terrible mental image 😂😂😂

Stay safe and well and don't forget ; keep in touch with yourself 😷
As Bowie sang 'You better hang onto yourself'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 20, 2020, 04:35:21 PM
More playing with words. You voted Tory. You voted for Boris as pm. I voted Labour knowing that if theyd won Corbyn would be pm. You wssentially endorsed a lying bully who tried to get someone beaten up. Your choice. Live with it dont try to wriggle out of it.

Seems rather unfair ... if everyone voted for the person who they thought would make the best MP for their area we would end up with a sane parliament. It is the people that only vote with consideration of the personality that will become PM that skew it. The system we have just doesn't work "properly" (at least my idea of properly).
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 20, 2020, 04:37:10 PM
Marketing donut
put politicians at the top of the list of most distrusted proffesions in the UK

So there you have it
Fact-checked by Walter
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 04:47:42 PM
Seems rather unfair ... if everyone voted for the person who they thought would make the best MP for their area we would end up with a sane parliament. It is the people that only vote with consideration of the personality that will become PM that skew it. The system we have just doesn't work "properly" (at least my idea of properly).

Agree but there is an issue if people are arguing that Johnson is the best person simply because of that vote.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 20, 2020, 04:50:15 PM
For the benefit of those who appear to think I am a bit like a sheep in my voting, I would just like to point out that although I long since ceased to take any active part in political matters, I do think and consider before making my decisions about voting. You may not like what my decisions are, but at least give me  the credit for thinking and considering, and not being just a gullible sheep!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 04:55:43 PM
For the benefit of those who appear to think I am a bit like a sheep in my voting, I would just like to point out that although I long since ceased to take any active part in political matters, I do think and consider before making my decisions about voting. You may not like what my decisions are, but at least give me  the credit for thinking and considering, and not being just a gullible sheep!
Never thought you were a sheep. Just wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 20, 2020, 05:12:04 PM
For the benefit of those who appear to think I am a bit like a sheep in my voting, I would just like to point out that although I long since ceased to take any active part in political matters, I do think and consider before making my decisions about voting. You may not like what my decisions are, but at least give me  the credit for thinking and considering, and not being just a gullible sheep!
SD

There is no requirement for you to justify yourself to anyone , especially on here
where most of us/ them are so full of .... themselves .
In other words tell them to PISS OFF 😘
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 05:13:48 PM
SD

There is no requirement for you to justify yourself to anyone , especially on here
where most of us/ them are so full of .... themselves .
In other words tell them to PISS OFF 😘
Piss  off
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 05:14:52 PM
The press conference on the support on pay is quite extraordinary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 05:19:32 PM
And I will say Rishi Sunak is doing well. It's a badly written speech but the actions are good. And it is at least a written speech unlike Johnson's maunderings which are dangerous
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 20, 2020, 05:24:04 PM
And how exactly would that work given that viruses proliferation inside our cells?!? The only way you can stop the virus proliferating in the upper respiratory tract through oral and nasal hygiene would be to kill the infected cells, and that's what our immune systems will be doing anyhow.

You clearly know nothing about how viruses function and how viral infections work

I knew from A-Level Biology that viruses replicate inside cells, and I know about inflammation and the immune system having studied physiology. Otherwise, I don't know much about viruses. But I would like to discuss it, if that is allowed? If possible without being insulted?

When viruses have replicated inside the cell, they then exit the cell. So once outside, they could be stopped from infecting other cells.

I googled to find out whether toothpaste kills microbes. The answer seems to be no. However, effective brushing with toothpaste and a decent brush does help to remove microbes from the mouth.

Pneumonia, a complication of coronavirus, is listed here as a health problem associated with not brushing teeth, along with coronary artery disease, dementia, diabetes and pregnancy complications:

"If you don’t brush your teeth and have an overgrowth of bacteria in your mouth, it’s possible to inhale them into your lungs where they can create problems such as pneumonia. Researchers reported that improving oral hygiene among hospital patients reduced cases of pneumonia by 40 percent."

https://tinyurl.com/tgudeea

Also, saliva kills bacteria and viruses, and brushing the teeth increases the salivary flow rate.

Blowing one's nose will clear it of microbe-containing mucus. That means the microbes will hang around in the tissue or handkerchief. Blowing it again with a used hanky will reintroduce the virus to the nose, hence changing hankies regularly is necessary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 20, 2020, 05:41:00 PM
Piss  off
saney

Thank you , I needed that 😝
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 05:43:42 PM
saney

Thank you , I needed that 😝

Happy to help
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 20, 2020, 05:52:38 PM
Never thought you were a sheep. Just wrong.
Thank you! :)

SD

There is no requirement for you to justify yourself to anyone , especially on here
Thank you for saying- much appreciated. However, actually I wasn't saying it to justify myself - I am quietly confident enough not to need to do so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 20, 2020, 05:52:53 PM
For the benefit of those who appear to think I am a bit like a sheep in my voting, I would just like to point out that although I long since ceased to take any active part in political matters, I do think and consider before making my decisions about voting. You may not like what my decisions are, but at least give me  the credit for thinking and considering, and not being just a gullible sheep!

Baaa - humbug  ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 20, 2020, 05:56:57 PM
At last, they're biting the bullet, closing pubs, etc., and paying wages.   No alternative.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 20, 2020, 06:14:41 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51981653

All pubs, clubs and restaurants here in Wales are to close as from this evening, but they can offer a takeaway service.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 06:37:58 PM
At last, they're biting the bullet, closing pubs, etc., and paying wages.   No alternative.
The announcement, if that is what it is, was badly done. Lots of talk about licensing restrictions without a clear statement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 20, 2020, 06:44:05 PM
Moreover, there is still the Brexit issue in the background, which is primarily a Tory-driven policy
And yet a lot of Labour voters voted for it. Anyway, it's off topic for this thread.

Quote
For example, should the Coronavirus issue be one that lasts for a good chunk of the rest of this calendar year, as seems likely,
We'd better hope not, or Brexit will pale into insignificance compared to the damage wrought to the economy by the coronavirus lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 06:46:29 PM
And yet a lot of Labour voters voted for it. Anyway, it's off topic for this thread.
We'd better hope not, or Brexit will pale into insignificance compared to the damage wrought to the economy by the coronavirus lockdown.
Brexit will and should pale into insignificance. Anyone who thinks Brexit is going to happen this year is wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 20, 2020, 06:47:35 PM
It has not been needed elsewhere. It is nothing to do with any shortages but the mentality of a population that elected a known liar as PM, supporting policies based on lies or self-deception.
Are you saying that only Tory voters are hoarding? Can you back that up with evidence?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 20, 2020, 06:48:59 PM
More playing with words. You voted Tory. You voted for Boris as pm. I voted Labour knowing that if theyd won Corbyn would be pm. You wssentially endorsed a lying bully who tried to get someone beaten up. Your choice. Live with it dont try to wriggle out of it.
And you endorsed a useless turd.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 20, 2020, 06:51:22 PM
And you endorsed a useless turd.

Other opinions are available.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 06:57:04 PM
Are you saying that only Tory voters are hoarding? Can you back that up with evidence?
Nothing in Udayana's post says that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 20, 2020, 07:13:06 PM
Other opinions are available.
Corbyn is a useless turd. The Tory government has been an open goal for a decent opposition ever since the Brexit vote. Labour should have won both of the last two elections with ease.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 20, 2020, 07:13:58 PM
Nothing in Udayana's post says that.

Really? It sure looks like it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 07:29:36 PM
Really? It sure looks like it.
Not to me. Can you point out why?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 20, 2020, 07:37:23 PM
Not to me. Can you point out why?

Quote
It has not been needed elsewhere.  It is nothing to do with any shortages butthe mentality of a population that elected a known liar as PM, supporting policies based on lies or self-deception.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2020, 07:42:54 PM

Which says nothing like your suggestion
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 20, 2020, 08:19:09 PM
Are you saying that only Tory voters are hoarding? Can you back that up with evidence?

I don't know where you got that from.

My point is that panic buying and hoarding are completely unnecessary. The only reason it is happening is that no-one has confidence in what they are being told by the government. They are hedging their bets by stockpiling. They know Boris and (both sides) feel they have been betrayed by the politicians over the last 3 (at least) years. Trust has run out. 

It is not happening in Europe. It will happen in the US - because again they know that they have a liar and fantasist at the head.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 20, 2020, 10:59:03 PM
Corbyn is a useless turd. The Tory government has been an open goal for a decent opposition ever since the Brexit vote. Labour should have won both of the last two elections with ease.

I do find your black and white clarity on the world most refreshing.

You must find your certainty very comforting.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on March 21, 2020, 05:50:19 AM


Just for you Walter...!  ;)  Govt. closing pubs because people are not heeding advise.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/20/business/coronavirus-uk-pubs-wages/index.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on March 21, 2020, 06:57:00 AM
Here are a couple of stories from the BBC:


1: Are we over-reacting?


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654


2:  While our attention was elsewhere ...


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51984344
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 21, 2020, 09:10:19 AM
Here are a couple of stories from the BBC:


1: Are we over-reacting?


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654


2:  While our attention was elsewhere ...


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51984344
it always makes me wonder what they have against the sea?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 21, 2020, 09:11:31 AM

Just for you Walter...!  ;)  Govt. closing pubs because people are not heeding advise.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/20/business/coronavirus-uk-pubs-wages/index.html
sriram

Thanks for your concern 🍻👍
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 21, 2020, 09:31:40 AM
Here are a couple of stories from the BBC:


1: Are we over-reacting?


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654


2:  While our attention was elsewhere ...


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51984344

The over-reaction idea is quite common, but it seems to miss the point about contagion, that there's a multiplier effect.  Thus, if you just add one infected person a day, after 3 weeks, you have 21 infected.  But if you double every day, 3 weeks gives you 500 000.  In other words, it can run out of control, then no health system can cope.   Well, to paraphrase Clint Eastwood, do you feel lucky?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 21, 2020, 09:45:31 AM
Just watched this - while the idea of it being some deliberate act is not shown by the evidence, there is still a chill.


https://youtu.be/5sQsVBolPNs
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 21, 2020, 09:49:09 AM
Interesting piece about the British approach to emergencies, and another about the so-called 'blitz spirit' - both from the Grauniad: in the current circumstances both are worth a read (now that there is more time for reading).

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/21/britain-has-always-relished-the-idea-of-a-national-emergency-will-that-change-now-

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/19/myth-blitz-spirit-model-coronavirus
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 21, 2020, 10:01:57 AM
Interesting piece about the British approach to emergencies, and another about the so-called 'blitz spirit' - both from the Grauniad: in the current circumstances both are worth a read (now that there is more time for reading).

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/21/britain-has-always-relished-the-idea-of-a-national-emergency-will-that-change-now-

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/19/myth-blitz-spirit-model-coronavirus

The line about this crisis being boring chimes with me. It's a very odd feeling because the decisions seem to be easily predictable and always seem to happen slightly faster than one thinks but it still seems like an incredibly slow  car crash.


I have to admit to struggling with motivation at work as it feels like a waste of time. I would be happy to volunteer to help with key roles, and what I do really doesn't feel key.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 21, 2020, 10:09:30 AM
Some light reading to while away the time while you're in lockdown or self-isolating:
The Black Death - Phillip Ziegler
A Journal of the Plague Year - Daniel Defoe
The Plague - Albert Camus
Love in a Time of Cholera - Gabriel Garcia Marquez
The Plague and I - Betty MacDonald
Or you could binge-watch the 70s BBC series 'Survivors' on Youtube.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 21, 2020, 10:12:33 AM
It feels to me like I imagine the so-called 'phoney war' felt in the first few months after September 1939: yes something bad was coming but it wasn't here yet, and while there were some early indications of that things would probably get worse there isn't a real sense of urgency - yet.

Looking at events in Italy is scary though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 21, 2020, 10:45:57 AM
I thought I'd go to the only shop in this village near me (the co-op ) only to find about 60 ish people huddling outside to keep out of the wind because the shop would only allow 6 people at a time inside .
I decided to drive off .
Crazyness is happening now
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 21, 2020, 11:15:38 AM
Looking at the list of key workers, and wondering how many of them would not reach the earnings threshold for immigration points.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 21, 2020, 11:22:11 AM
On the list of politicians who are utter wankstains, there is a special place for John Mason.


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-msp-condemns-his-church-in-scotland-for-halting-sunday-services-0qb0tvhgw
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on March 21, 2020, 11:24:03 AM
Couldn't help noticing how the 'Federal Europe' is dealing with this pandemic as one and closing various boarders interesting.

What was it, ever closer union?

Just an observation.

ippy. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 21, 2020, 11:26:02 AM
On the list of politicians who are utter wankstains, there is a special place for John Mason.


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-msp-condemns-his-church-in-scotland-for-halting-sunday-services-0qb0tvhgw

Jesus doesn't appearing to be riding to the rescue of those who have the virus. ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 21, 2020, 11:29:21 AM
Couldn't help noticing how the 'Federal Europe' is dealing with this pandemic as one and closing various boarders interesting.

What was it, ever closer union?

Just an observation.

ippy.
Couldn't help noticing how many of the key workers we have to help us deal with the pandemic are immigrants.

What was it, take back control?

Just an observation
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 21, 2020, 11:29:41 AM
Got up early, shopping better. Lots of old people around, what else can they do?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 21, 2020, 11:30:31 AM
Jesus doesn't appearing to be riding to the rescue of those who have the virus. ::)
Too busy finding Alan Burns' contact lens, and saving him  getting a parking ticket.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 21, 2020, 11:43:36 AM
Too busy finding Alan Burns' contact lens, and saving him  getting a parking ticket.

Of course that is much more important than saving lives. ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 21, 2020, 11:59:39 AM
Couldn't help noticing how the 'Federal Europe' is dealing with this pandemic as one and closing various boarders interesting.

What was it, ever closer union?

Just an observation.

ippy.

When you need borders you put them up, when they are a hindrance you leave them open - what's the problem?

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 21, 2020, 12:01:57 PM
Too busy finding Alan Burns' contact lens, and saving him  getting a parking ticket.
Hi ho Silver

Thanks Jim 👍
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 21, 2020, 12:05:15 PM
Hi Saney
Briefly , what is John Wankstain actually saying , cos I can't open it ?

If you please !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 21, 2020, 12:05:53 PM
When you need borders you put them up, when they are a hindrance you leave them open - what's the problem?

Yes, aren't Italians closing off whole towns?  Too subtle for Brexiters.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 21, 2020, 12:11:37 PM
Interesting piece about the British approach to emergencies, and another about the so-called 'blitz spirit' - both from the Grauniad: in the current circumstances both are worth a read (now that there is more time for reading).

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/21/britain-has-always-relished-the-idea-of-a-national-emergency-will-that-change-now-

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/19/myth-blitz-spirit-model-coronavirus

Some truth in those pieces.

Doesn't everyone have some part of them that wishes for everything to just stop and revert to a simpler way of existence?

Where what you do is just up to you, whether you survive and thrive or not is up to your strengths and wit?

No laws, taxes, interfering busy bodies and all the media crap?

Hence all the post-apocalyptic books, films, tv series. We've rehearsed this a million times - But that is also a problem as fear is geared up and we react irrationally, bringing on the worst.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 21, 2020, 12:26:20 PM
Hi Saney
Briefly , what is John Wankstain actually saying , cos I can't open it ?

If you please !
That his church shouldn't have cancelled services, and people should go, take the risk and trust in Jesus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on March 21, 2020, 12:30:46 PM
  And are they saying it can be beaten 12 weeks? Or that there has been sufficient money put into the NHS? Or that the planning for this has been sufficient?

Did Boris say it would be beaten in 12 weeks?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 21, 2020, 12:31:23 PM
...
1: Are we over-reacting?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

...

We predict conditions according to estimates that are based on known but incomplete data - that is all that is possible. As more data is gathered we can refine those estimates and predictions. And when it's over we can work on new estimates so that the next time we do better.
 

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 21, 2020, 12:31:54 PM
That his church shouldn't have cancelled services, and people should go, take the risk and trust in Jesus.
thanks Saney

Would that be the same Jesus who could have prevented it in the first place then?
" I'm going to slap you silly until you you love me properly "

Jesus
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 21, 2020, 01:03:23 PM
Which says nothing like your suggestion

It implies my suggestion.

What's wrong with you? You normally have no problem with reading things into other people's posts - correctly or not?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 21, 2020, 01:14:22 PM
Couldn't help noticing how the 'Federal Europe' is dealing with this pandemic as one and closing various boarders interesting.

What was it, ever closer union?

Just an observation.

ippy.

Oh look, the EU is handing out money (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/18/economy/ecb-bailout/index.html) to help cushion the shock. We could have our slice of that...

... oh, wait.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 21, 2020, 01:17:39 PM
Yes, aren't Italians closing off whole towns?  Too subtle for Brexiters.
With their travel restrictions, they have basically put a border around every single household. Ippy must be questioning the viability of countries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 21, 2020, 01:22:17 PM
That his church shouldn't have cancelled services, and people should go, take the risk and trust in Jesus.

If people really believed that, churches would not have lightning conductors...

... or roofs.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 21, 2020, 01:23:32 PM
Did Boris say it would be beaten in 12 weeks?

If it isn't, we're all fucked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 21, 2020, 01:25:34 PM
Did Boris say it would be beaten in 12 weeks?
Given you haven't mentioned the other two points, should I think that you agree with them?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/19/boris-johnson-uk-can-turn-tide-of-coronavirus-in-12-weeks
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 21, 2020, 01:29:05 PM
If people really believed that, churches would not have lightning conductors...

... or roofs.
  With Mason there is a chance he might actually agree with that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 21, 2020, 01:33:44 PM
If it isn't, we're all fucked.
The problem is that even if Johnson were talking confidently to keep morale up, he is going to struggle to be believed because he's a known liar and his demeanour in this time has been lightweight.

Finding Sunak impressive though, and one thing Johnson could learn here is less busking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 21, 2020, 01:50:15 PM
My thoughts on the statistics:

In the UK, over the last three days we have confirmed 680, 647 and 706 new cases. Compared to previous days, this is something of  a flat line. Unfortunately, we are only testing people who have been admitted to hospital.

In total, we have tested 66,967 people of whom 3,983 or about 6% were positive. If we extrapolate that to the population in general, that means that nearly four million of us already have the virus. It's a dangerous extrapolation, of course, because hospital admissions would be expected to have a bias in favour of people who have coronavirus but I think it is the right order of magnitude.

I think the government needs to do more testing. At the very least, it needs to do some proper randomised testing to get a confident picture of how many people actually have the virus and I think it needs to track down and test people who have had contact with confirmed cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 21, 2020, 02:10:08 PM
The problem is that even if Johnson were talking confidently to keep morale up, he is going to struggle to be believed because he's a known liar and his demeanour in this time has been lightweight.

Finding Sunak impressive though, and one thing Johnson could learn here is less busking.

That's not the problem. The problem is that, if we don't get back to some semblance of normality within three months, we are all fucked.

OK, it is a problem: Boris Johnson does not have the necessary qualities to lead us in this crisis. A majority of the population won't believe what he says simply because he is Boris Johnson. I'm not in that camp, but I do believe he is completely untrustworthy, lazy and out only for his own gain. I do not think he is stupid: if he applied himself properly to the issue and had everybody's interests at heart, he would do a good job.

As some light relief, he's not as bad as this man:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIwMCGJspmc

I don't think even Boris would respond in that way to a softball question like that. Here's how Trump should have responded:

https://youtu.be/TIwMCGJspmc?t=178
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 21, 2020, 02:26:59 PM
Yes, I will agree that Johnson is better than Trump. And I don't think Johnson is at all stupid. He's been 'completely untrustworthy, lazy and out only for his own gain' throughout his life and that comes across badly now.


Many years ago, I met him a few times. He was obviously clever but was completely unprincipled. Lied then, was utterly sexist and racist, and he hasn't changed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on March 21, 2020, 02:35:30 PM
Given you haven't mentioned the other two points, should I think that you agree with them?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/19/boris-johnson-uk-can-turn-tide-of-coronavirus-in-12-weeks

So he didn't say it could be beaten in 12 weeks?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 21, 2020, 02:35:57 PM
It would be very hard for anyone to be as bad as Trump, however Boris doesn't inspire any confidence in his ability to steer the UK through the crisis we now find ourselves in.  :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 21, 2020, 02:41:49 PM
Couldn't help noticing how the 'Federal Europe' is dealing with this pandemic as one and closing various boarders interesting.

What was it, ever closer union?

Just an observation.

ippy.
Just a very stupid observastion: these asre exceptional times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 21, 2020, 02:48:36 PM
So he didn't say it could be beaten in 12 weeks?
Turning the tide is surely a claim to beat it? And again, should I take it that your ignoring the other 2 points mean you agree he was lying about those?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 21, 2020, 03:21:15 PM
I thought turning the tide meant that the upward curve in cases/deaths would start to flatten.  There are various graphs online, often by John Hopkins Uni.  I think the UK trajectory is like Italy, not good at the moment, but repression should flatten it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 21, 2020, 04:33:49 PM
An interesting and depressing read:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/10-days-that-changed-britains-coronavirus-approach?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 21, 2020, 04:36:34 PM
Ah, TV see you beat me to it :)

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/10-days-that-changed-britains-coronavirus-approach

This is interesting on whats been going on behind the scenes in reaching decisions.

I find it quite concerning as there are other actions that we should be putting into place now - to cope if the public actually does manage to lock down enough to avoid an NHS crash - and if they don't. We, the public, are still getting waffle and woolly statements instead of precise information and clear cut instructions at the daily updates. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 21, 2020, 05:13:30 PM
Is it time for a coalition government?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 21, 2020, 05:26:25 PM
Is it time for a coalition government?

You could well be right.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 21, 2020, 06:23:57 PM
Our council has just sent out a notice stating all garden waste collections have been suspended until further notice, they start in March and finish in December. We have forked out for this year's collection and have only had one so far! I would think gardening is an activity many people will be doing to relieve the boredom of being in lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 21, 2020, 06:34:18 PM
A friend phoned today with a story about how the virus came  from a research lab in Maryland, then by some soldiers going to woohan (sp?) for a sports occasion and giving them the virus. Or it came from India. It all sounds very  far-fetched to sayi the least, but I wonder if anyone has heard anything like this?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 21, 2020, 06:48:02 PM
A friend phoned today with a story about how the virus came  from a research lab in Maryland, then by some soldiers going to woohan (sp?) for a sports occasion and giving them the virus. Or it came from India. It all sounds very  far-fetched to sayi the least, but I wonder if anyone has heard anything like this?

There is so much nonsense circulating on the internet. A good website for fact-checking is this one:

https://www.snopes.com/collections/coronavirus-collection-prevention-treatments/

I've certainly seen that rumour elsewhere as well as countless ones about drinking warm water, gargling with garlic, and on and on and on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 21, 2020, 06:50:03 PM
Is this a sore throat?
Is this just allergies?
Caught in a lockdown
No escape from reality

Don't touch your eyes
Just hand sanitize quicklyyyy
I'm just a poor boy, no job security
Because of easy spread, even though
Washed your hands, laying low
I look out the window, the curve doesn't look flatter to me, to me

Mama, just killed a man
Didn't stay inside in bed
I walked by him, now he's dead
Mama, life was so much fun
But now I've caught this unforgiving plague

Mama, oooo
Didn't mean to make them die
If I'm not back to work this time tomorrow
Carry on, carry on as if people didn't matter

Too late, my time has come
Sends shivers down my spine, body's aching all the time
Goodbye everybody, I've got the flu
Gotta leave you all behind and face the truth

Mama, oooo
I don't wanna die, I sometimes wish I never went out at all

I see a little silhouette of a man
What a douche, what a douche
Did he even wash his hands though
Security is tightening
Very very frightening me

I'm just a poor boy facing mortality
He's just a poor boy facing mortality
Spare him his life from this monstrosity

Touch your face, wash your hands?
Will you wash you hands
BISMILLAH NO, WE WILL NOT WASH OUR HANDS ( WASH YOUR HANDS!)
BISMILLAH NO, WE WILL NOT WASH OUR HANDS (WASH YOUR HANDS!)
BISMILLAH NO, WE WILL NOT WASH OUR HANDS (WASH YOUR HANDS!) WASH YOUR HANDS (never, never, never wash your hands oh oh oh oh oh oh oh
Oh mama mia, mama mia, wash your hands
Covid-19 has a sickness put aside for me, for me

So you think you can stop me and just shake my hand?
So you think we can hang out and not break our plans?
Oh baby, can't do this with me baby
Just gotta stay home,
Just gotta stay home with my fever

Oooooo

Curving can get flatter, anyone can see
Curving can get flatter
Curving can get flatter, you'll see

Just look out your windows....

Anon.

Pinched from my other forum.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on March 21, 2020, 06:52:45 PM
I like that!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on March 21, 2020, 06:57:09 PM
A friend phoned today with a story about how the virus came  from a research lab in Maryland, then by some soldiers going to woohan (sp?) for a sports occasion and giving them the virus. Or it came from India. It all sounds very  far-fetched to sayi the least, but I wonder if anyone has heard anything like this?
   






Nope.
The virus was genetically engineered by a secretive cartel of toilet roll manufacturers to, firstly, boost their profits, and, ultimately, hold the world to ransom.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 21, 2020, 06:57:25 PM
There is so much nonsense circulating on the internet. A good website for fact-checking is this one:

https://www.snopes.com/collections/coronavirus-collection-prevention-treatments/

I've certainly seen that rumour elsewhere as well as countless ones about drinking warm water, gargling with garlic, and on and on and on.
I haven't heard much from the Homeopaths

They've normally got a cure for everything !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 21, 2020, 07:07:09 PM
Turning the tide is surely a claim to beat it?

No. Turning the tide means you start winning - or stop losing, at least. For example, in WW2, the Allies turned the tide in 1942. The didn't finally win until 1945.

As far as coronavirus is concerned, turning the tide is probably having a consistent declining rate of new infections day by day. Winning is getting the disease to a level where the NHS can cope with it as part of normal daily  operations even with social distancing not in effect. It's never going away completely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 21, 2020, 07:10:58 PM
A friend phoned today with a story about how the virus came  from a research lab in Maryland, then by some soldiers going to woohan (sp?) for a sports occasion and giving them the virus. Or it came from India. It all sounds very  far-fetched to sayi the least, but I wonder if anyone has heard anything like this?
Yes, I've heard of stories like that. I file them in the same drawer as the ones where the US government did 9/11. If they weren't online and virtual, I'd be less worried about the toilet paper situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 21, 2020, 07:16:44 PM
I haven't heard much from the Homeopaths

They've normally got a cure for everything !
I know one who has successfully dissolved a toilet roll and made a 100C solution out of it. He says it works quite well but only if applied anally. He also says the pill form is pretty unsuccessful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 21, 2020, 07:26:57 PM
I know one who has successfully dissolved a toilet roll and made a 100C solution out of it. He says it works quite well but only if applied anally. He also says the pill form is pretty unsuccessful.
perhaps he's doing it the wrong way round😝
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 21, 2020, 07:55:19 PM
We just had our first death due to the virus. Confirmed cases are now over 500 but health and welfare insitute has said total cases could possibly be a much as 20-30 times that. Testing capacity has been increased to 2500 a day. Of the confirmed cases nearly all can be traced back in one way or another to northern Italy and a single skiing resort in Austria.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on March 21, 2020, 09:26:09 PM
Turning the tide is surely a claim to beat it? And again, should I take it that your ignoring the other 2 points mean you agree he was lying about those?

I'm picking you up on something that is demonstrably false.

In other news, interesting read not drawing any conclusions personally.
https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 21, 2020, 10:24:43 PM
I'm picking you up on something that is demonstrably false.

In other news, interesting read not drawing any conclusions personally.
https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Oh... please stop .. you are making me laugh  :'(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on March 22, 2020, 05:40:46 AM
A friend phoned today with a story about how the virus came  from a research lab in Maryland, then by some soldiers going to woohan (sp?) for a sports occasion and giving them the virus. Or it came from India. It all sounds very  far-fetched to sayi the least, but I wonder if anyone has heard anything like this?


From India...really?! In India we presently have a total of 327 cases with 4 deaths.

The whole country (1.3 billion of us) are today (Sunday) on a voluntary lockdown (not compulsory) on an appeal from the PM. There is no one on the streets in any of our cities or towns ( at 11 am) as shown by our TV channels. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on March 22, 2020, 06:35:45 AM



Guys...I once again request you all to practice some deep breathing exercises.  This is not a religious belief. It is sound practical advise.

Stay safe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 22, 2020, 07:00:14 AM
   

Nope.
The virus was genetically engineered by a secretive cartel of toilet roll manufacturers to, firstly, boost their profits, and, ultimately, hold the world to ransom.
:) That's the obviousanswer! But it is sad that so many people spread so many rumours.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 22, 2020, 08:30:13 AM
There are now 15 cases of the virus in my home island of Guernsey, all people who have been on holiday to places where they picked up the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 22, 2020, 09:02:36 AM
Sriram

I hardly ever agree with your views, but I make an exception on the subject of deep breathing. :) I think you are absolutely right to recommend it. As an old person unable to move vigorously and thus clear lungs, and having had to have two courses of antibiotics at the start of 2019 for a chest infection, I make a point of making sure my lungs are clear each day. Fortunately, no trouble yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on March 22, 2020, 09:09:01 AM


That is good Susan...keep that up.  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 22, 2020, 10:51:00 AM

From India...really?! In India we presently have a total of 327 cases with 4 deaths.
Do you really think that's true?

In your position, I would be extremely concerned that most cases are going unreported.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 22, 2020, 11:17:03 AM
Do you really think that's true?

In your position, I would be extremely concerned that most cases are going unreported.

I would be too. :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on March 22, 2020, 11:55:32 AM
There are now 15 cases of the virus in my home island of Guernsey, all people who have been on holiday to places where they picked up the virus.
They'll have spread it to others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 22, 2020, 12:00:55 PM
Now Croatia getsd hit by an earthquake! (https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/22/a-5-3-magnitude-earthquake-shakes-croatia-and-its-capital) What next - rivers of blood? Death of firstborn sons? plagues of locusts? (Actuslly, come to think of it, parts of Africa have just had devastating locust swarms.) It's the end times! Repent! Repent!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on March 22, 2020, 12:04:34 PM
Chill.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 22, 2020, 12:08:55 PM
They'll have spread it to others.

Hopefully not as they were quarantined the moment they arrived back in the island.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on March 22, 2020, 12:33:34 PM
Do you really think that's true?

In your position, I would be extremely concerned that most cases are going unreported.


That could be true of every country in fact.  Even so, it is pretty low at the moment in India and medical professionals say we are still at stage 2. We are hoping to avoid stage 3....or keep it to the minimum.   

So, fingers crossed. 

But it certainly didn't start in India.....

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 22, 2020, 12:44:57 PM
From BBC's rolling coverage


'Iran's Supreme Leader has rejected America's offer of aid to help the country with its battle against coronavirus.

In a televised speech, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the US was Iran's "most evil enemy" and hinted at a conspiracy theory, also voiced by some Chinese officials, that America was responsible for the pandemic.

“I do not know how real this accusation is but when it exists, who in their right mind would trust you to bring them medication?" Mr Khamenei said. "Possibly your medicine is a way to spread the virus more.”

Without offering any evidence, he also alleged that the virus “is specifically built for Iran using the genetic data of Iranians which they have obtained through different means”.'

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 22, 2020, 12:52:12 PM

That could be true of every country in fact.
It is true of the UK for sure. But I am confident that we are at least doing something to monitor the situation and people who need treatment are getting it. We aren't testing enough people but the numbers bear some relation to reality.


Quote
Even so, it is pretty low at the moment in India and medical professionals say we are still at stage 2. We are hoping to avoid stage 3....or keep it to the minimum.   
The problem is that, if your numbers are under reporting the incidence of coronavirus, you might find they unexpectedly explode.

Quote
But it certainly didn't start in India.....
It started in China, but blaming countries is not helpful at the moment. It's more important that we get things under control.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 22, 2020, 12:59:07 PM
From BBC's rolling coverage


'Iran's Supreme Leader has rejected America's offer of aid to help the country with its battle against coronavirus.

In a televised speech, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the US was Iran's "most evil enemy" and hinted at a conspiracy theory, also voiced by some Chinese officials, that America was responsible for the pandemic.

“I do not know how real this accusation is but when it exists, who in their right mind would trust you to bring them medication?" Mr Khamenei said. "Possibly your medicine is a way to spread the virus more.”

Without offering any evidence, he also alleged that the virus “is specifically built for Iran using the genetic data of Iranians which they have obtained through different means”.'

I'm surprised that the USA has offered to help Iran considering they have enough on their plate with their own cases - which also gives the lie to the idea that the USA engineered the virus to target Iran.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 22, 2020, 01:25:03 PM
I'm surprised that the USA has offered to help Iran considering they have enough on their plate with their own cases - which also gives the lie to the idea that the USA engineered the virus to target Iran.
Well not if you think in paranoid fashion that the medicine will increase the problem. The help issue is in part related to the US having sanctions imposed on Iran, and this was a way to be compassionate but appear strong. Iran managing to leap to the top of madness league.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 22, 2020, 01:33:24 PM

Ffs!


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51994504
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 22, 2020, 01:37:40 PM
A handy list of fake remedies etc concerning the virus:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51735367
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 22, 2020, 01:41:57 PM
Ffs!


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51994504
similar sights in the Yorkshire Dales according to my boy who lives there !

We were discussing wether or not it would be a good idea for me to park up on his land next to his house . I could self isolate and he could get get my supplies

I'm still thinking about it ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 22, 2020, 01:44:02 PM
similar sights in the Yorkshire Dales according to my boy who lives there !

We were discussing wether or not it would be a good idea for me to park up on his land next to his house . I could self isolate and he could get get my supplies

I'm still thinking about it ?
Makes sense to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 22, 2020, 01:46:58 PM
Ffs!


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51994504

Some people are totally idiotic! >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 22, 2020, 01:48:21 PM
A handy list of fake remedies etc concerning the virus:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51735367

It is sad that the gullible will fall for those fake remedies hook, line and sinker without checking out their credibility first. :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 22, 2020, 02:03:58 PM
A handy list of fake remedies etc concerning the virus:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51735367
natural selection ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 22, 2020, 02:07:33 PM
Makes sense to me.
thank you for your input👍

As the nun said to the bishop 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 22, 2020, 02:13:29 PM
It is sad that the gullible will fall for those fake remedies hook, line and sinker without checking out their credibility first. :o
Lr

Unless you've spent a considerable amount of time on YouTube , you are
 probably not aware of the number of "health" channels there are and how many followers they have .
Most of them are from content providers in the US
And they are all anti vaxers too !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 22, 2020, 02:26:23 PM
Lr

Unless you've spent a considerable amount of time on YouTube , you are
 probably not aware of the number of "health" channels there are and how many followers they have .
Most of them are from content providers in the US
And they are all anti vaxers too !

I don't use you tube, but I have come across many of these so called, 'health channels', on the internet, and their, 'I believe it all to be true', followers, many of whom are anti vaxers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 22, 2020, 02:47:50 PM
Don't understand why we haven't restricted most of public transport to key workers. India's call seems right.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-51957936
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 22, 2020, 03:51:24 PM
The announcement on Friday that pubs and restaurants were being told to shut without being ordered to shut lead to some places staying open. Police in Scotland taking emergency measures to shut those who have remained open. Despite my worries about some aspects of that, good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 22, 2020, 04:12:16 PM
Don't understand why we haven't restricted most of public transport to key workers. India's call seems right.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-51957936

Maybe the bad ass super-forecasting 'weirdos and misfits' think that people are capable of sorting it out for themselves on twitter?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 22, 2020, 04:37:04 PM
I don't use you tube, but I have come across many of these so called, 'health channels', on the internet, and their, 'I believe it all to be true', followers, many of whom are anti vaxers.
Lr

Unless you've completely closed your mind to new information , education and entertainment then YouTube provides hours of free enjoyment . Give it a try 👍
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 22, 2020, 04:39:13 PM
The announcement on Friday that pubs and restaurants were being told to shut without being ordered to shut lead to some places staying open. Police in Scotland taking emergency measures to shut those who have remained open. Despite my worries about some aspects of that, good.

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/5412675/greenock-pub-cheers-nicola-sturgeon-coronavirus-scotland/

Apparently some new emergency powers legislation comes into force tomorrow. They need to start using it as soon as.. .

According to the Guardian rolling news the powers used today by Police Scotland only enforce closing for 24 hrs (?)

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 22, 2020, 04:44:23 PM
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/5412675/greenock-pub-cheers-nicola-sturgeon-coronavirus-scotland/

Apparently some new emergency powers legislation comes into force tomorrow. They need to start using it as soon as.. .

According to the Guardian rolling news the powers used today by Police Scotland only enforce closing for 24 hrs (?)

 
I think that is the intention, and Police Scotland are being adaptive to get through this. And that the incident you linked to happened in my hometown is both depressing and unsurprising.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 22, 2020, 07:41:07 PM
I see the MD of the CofE has decided that we need prayers, and has kicked this off as follows:

Quote
May the God of all hope show us his face and his way within the darkness that enfolds us. In all things, God can work with us to transform and bring light, however desperate our present may be

https://twitter.com/hashtag/NationalDayOfPrayer?src=hash

One wonders if those praying to 'God' might ask it why it didn't step in much earlier, such as before this all kicked off. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 22, 2020, 08:55:39 PM
I see the MD of the CofE has decided that we need prayers, and has kicked this off as follows:

https://twitter.com/hashtag/NationalDayOfPrayer?src=hash

One wonders if those praying to 'God' might ask it why it didn't step in much earlier, such as before this all kicked off.
the religious won't get the irony

Outrageous !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 22, 2020, 10:13:38 PM
One wonders if those praying to 'God' might ask it why it didn't step in much earlier, such as before this all kicked off.
One wonders if you might drop LR's tiresome habit of referring to God as "it".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 22, 2020, 10:39:24 PM
One wonders if you might drop LR's tiresome habit of referring to God as "it".

I've always done so, mainly because a gendered term implies a known characteristic when, it seems to me,  the use of 'he' is more a matter of a patriarchal tradition than I'm not wedded to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 23, 2020, 07:54:02 AM
The wife of former president Martti Ahtisaari haa tested positive for the virus. She caught it at a Internal Womens Day concert. She's 83. :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 23, 2020, 08:06:43 AM
I see the MD of the CofE has decided that we need prayers, and has kicked this off as follows:

https://twitter.com/hashtag/NationalDayOfPrayer?src=hash

One wonders if those praying to 'God' might ask it why it didn't step in much earlier, such as before this all kicked off.
Totally agree - it is so hypocritical.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 23, 2020, 08:12:24 AM
Totally agree - it is so hypocritical.
Nothing hypocritical about it. You might argue that it's illogical (though there are plenty of answers to the question of why an omnipotent, omnibenevolent God allows natural disasters - I started a thread on the sbject once, but it was completely sabotaged by laboured, childish sarcasm from some other members), but if it's sincere, as I don't think anyone is doubting, it isn't hypocritical. Too many people bandy that word about as a general-purpose insult without, apparently, knowing what it means.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 23, 2020, 08:16:22 AM
Totally agree - it is so hypocritical.

Clearly, since God is omniscient and omnipotent, the coronavirus is part of his/her/its plan. It seems a bit presumptuous of Christians to assume that he/she/it made a mistake and ask him/her/it to change his/her/its mind.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 23, 2020, 08:20:54 AM
Clearly, since God is omniscient and omnipotent, the coronavirus is part of his/her/its plan. It seems a bit presumptuous of Christians to assume that he/she/it made a mistake and ask him/her/it to change his/her/its mind.
This is exactly the sort of laboured, childish sarcasm and inadequate view of God that I was referring to. Thanks for illustrating my point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 23, 2020, 08:30:31 AM
This is exactly the sort of laboured, childish sarcasm and inadequate view of God that I was referring to. Thanks for illustrating my point.

Why is it laboured?

Christians argue that God created everything, they frequently pray for God to intervene in their lives to obtain better outcomes for specific reasons, whether that be for keeping family safe or relieving the pain of a loved one and hundreds of other reasons. It is not an unreasonable pov that Jeremyp is putting forward.

You suggesting that it is
Quote
laboured, childish sarcasm
points more to the fact that you haven't got an adequate explanation, rather than Jeremy having an
Quote
inadequate view of God
.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 23, 2020, 08:51:53 AM
It's been obvious for a couple of weeks that the Olympics can't go ahead, just amazed that they haven't made the decision but individual countries have.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52000044
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 23, 2020, 08:52:12 AM
I have just done my weekly Tesco supermarket shop. It wasn't too busy, and apart from the anti-bac shelf it was very well stocked, especially with loo rolls, which every one was buying!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 23, 2020, 08:58:51 AM

You suggesting that it is [laboured, childish sarcasm] points more to the fact that you haven't got an adequate explanation, rather than Jeremy having an [inadequate view of God].
I stsarted a thread some time ago about omnipotence: what was it, does God necessarily have it, etc - and was hoping for an intelligent, courteous discussion. I should have known better, of course: all the usual suspects weighed in with non-stop sarcasm and bloody insulting comments, which made me lose my temper and tell them to do something both immoral and physically impossible. I then got suspended for a month. I won't make that mistake again. Few or none of the non-believers on this forum are interested in sensible discussion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 23, 2020, 09:06:08 AM
This is exactly the sort of laboured, childish sarcasm and inadequate view of God that I was referring to. Thanks for illustrating my point.

It isn't laboured: 'God' could have prevented this but decided to allow it, so Christians praying to 'God' to alleviate it are in essence implying that 'God' got it wrong (which doesn't square with the 'omnis'), or 'God' is monstrous enough to wait for prayers for help before intervening.

This is where the 'Problem of Evil' kicks in, and is a powerful argument against there being a 'good God'.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 23, 2020, 09:12:15 AM
The ridiculousness of the premise of the god of the bible is truely highlighted by our present global situation

Either god doesn't care or it's not there , I know which side my bread is buttered !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 23, 2020, 09:15:48 AM
Could the atheists possibly demonstrate their utterly inadequate understanding of Christian theology on other threads, and let this one return to discussing Covid-19, please?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 23, 2020, 09:20:58 AM
Could the atheists possibly demonstrate their utterly inadequate understanding of Christian theology on other threads, and let this one return to discussing Covid-19, please?
steve
Did your god send covid 19 to earth ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on March 23, 2020, 09:38:11 AM
It's been obvious for a couple of weeks that the Olympics can't go ahead, just amazed that they haven't made the decision but individual countries have.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52000044

A move to September/October would result in a better Games. Japan's climate is such that summer is hot and very humid. The contestants would find it difficult to do their best. Autumn is very much more comfortable - and in addition, very beautiful, very similar to the New England fall.

In Tokyo, people could spend time in Ueno Park. Those prepared to spend a few days away from Tokyo could go to Kyoto. Or better still to Hiroshima and spend a day on Miyajima island.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 23, 2020, 09:47:28 AM
This is exactly the sort of laboured, childish sarcasm and inadequate view of God that I was referring to. Thanks for illustrating my point.
Please join the Graham Hancock forum, go to Inner Space, and join in my topic titled: The corona virus and God'. See if you can offer a point which I do not successfully challenge!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 23, 2020, 09:50:56 AM
Please join the Graham Hancock forum, go to Inner Space, and join in my topic titled: The corona virus and God'. See if you can offer a point which I do not successfully challenge!
SD
why not start it on here ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 23, 2020, 09:58:23 AM
Could the atheists possibly demonstrate their utterly inadequate understanding of Christian theology on other threads, and let this one return to discussing Covid-19, please?
Ah, now there's another topic I started once on another forum (not GH). I can  assure you that there is not a single theologian who knows any fact about god/god/etc. Every single word, thought or idea about God (or any god), whether written or not, has come from an evolved human brain. And the definition of theology is' a study of 'the nature of God', but since the God referred to remains entirely lacking a scrap of objective (etc etc) evidence, the study of its nature is, again, all human ideas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 23, 2020, 10:05:27 AM
Ah, now there's another topic I started once on another forum (not GH). I can  assure you that there is not a single theologian who knows any fact about god/god/etc. Every single word, thought or idea about God (or any god), whether written or not, has come from an evolved human brain. And the definition of theology is' a study of 'the nature of God', but since the God referred to remains entirely lacking a scrap of objective (etc etc) evidence, the study of its nature is, again, all human ideas.
sd
Can't argue with that Susan 👍👍
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 23, 2020, 10:27:16 AM
Please join the Graham Hancock forum, go to Inner Space, and join in my topic titled: The corona virus and God'. See if you can offer a point which I do not successfully challenge!
Don't think I'll bother, thanks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 23, 2020, 10:33:51 AM
Ah, now there's another topic I started once on another forum (not GH). I can  assure you that there is not a single theologian who knows any fact about god/god/etc. Every single word, thought or idea about God (or any god), whether written or not, has come from an evolved human brain. And the definition of theology is' a study of 'the nature of God', but since the God referred to remains entirely lacking a scrap of objective (etc etc) evidence, the study of its nature is, again, all human ideas.

I agree with you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 23, 2020, 10:49:29 AM
On a more light-hearted, but still essentially serious note, Newsthump:

https://newsthump.com/2020/03/23/politicians-who-campaigned-for-leave-shocked-that-people-wont-listen-to-experts/?fbclid=IwAR20UIxYaUKaBXQ5ehgkbRSl1hWKgTEuqwk0By9WebiLZasmRNkDktLLTs0
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 23, 2020, 10:55:34 AM
I've started a thread called 'God and Suffering' in the Christina section, so perhaps the theological discussion (a flattering description) could continue there, and this thread be left to discussion of the lurgi.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 23, 2020, 11:07:09 AM
A friend of mine told his wife to go and put on her nurses uniform .
Off she went all excited to get herself ready .
"What do to think darling"
Lovely , now go down to Tesco and get in the queue for a loaf of bread !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 23, 2020, 12:24:28 PM
I've started a thread called 'God and Suffering' in the Christina section, so perhaps the theological discussion (a flattering description) could continue there, and this thread be left to discussion of the lurgi.

Nothing like resorting to that which you have accused others of.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 23, 2020, 12:42:14 PM
I've started a thread called 'God and Suffering' in the Christina section, so perhaps the theological discussion (a flattering description) could continue there, and this thread be left to discussion of the lurgi.

Just to note that I raised this issue because the CofE started a prayer event specifically as a response to Coronavirus, and as such the issue as raised was on topic.

I would agree though that a wider discussion of Christian theology, or the likes of the 'Problem of Evil', would be better placed in your new thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 23, 2020, 12:45:54 PM
This is exactly the sort of laboured, childish sarcasm and inadequate view of God that I was referring to. Thanks for illustrating my point.

But it's logically unassailable. If God is omnipotent and omniscient, we can only conclude he wants this pandemic to happen.  No amount of you trying  to hand wave it away will invalidate the point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 23, 2020, 01:32:38 PM
Each day that goes by reveals new and unforeseen (by me) consequences.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-52005044

The trial of the people accused of murdering PC Harper has collapsed  because three jurors are self isolating.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 23, 2020, 01:55:12 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52003543

This is sickening and then some!  :o

Three teenage boys deliberately coughed in the faces of an elderly couple, a fight then ensured. The woman ended up in hospital and their car was damaged! Those boys deserve to be locked up where the sun don't shine for a very long time!  >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 23, 2020, 01:57:03 PM
But it's logically unassailable. If God is omnipotent and omniscient, we can only conclude he wants this pandemic to happen.  No amount of you trying  to hand wave it away will invalidate the point.
I'm not trying to hand-wave anything away - I do not believe in God's omnipotence, unless you make so many qualifications as to make the word meaningless. However, perhaps we could continue on the new thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 23, 2020, 01:59:45 PM
Christina section,
Who's Christina Section?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 23, 2020, 02:03:40 PM
Who's Christina Section?

I was going to ask you that as it was the name you created! ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 23, 2020, 02:25:36 PM
There is a local rumour, which may or may not be true, that a temporary mortuary is being built on one of the local golf courses.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 23, 2020, 02:32:24 PM
There is a local rumour, which may or may not be true, that a temporary mortuary is being built on one of the local golf courses.

That wouldn't be the one owned by the clown across the pond by any chance?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 23, 2020, 02:43:10 PM
That wouldn't be the one owned by the clown across the pond by any chance?

No - that one is well south of here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on March 23, 2020, 03:20:12 PM
You won't go South just yet Gordon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 23, 2020, 05:54:37 PM
Deaths in Lombardy flattening?  320 today after 540 Saturday.   Early days, of course.  Ferdinando Giugliano, twitter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 23, 2020, 06:14:30 PM
Johnson is to do a broadcast at 8.30: I wonder if this might involve implementing restrictions in movement. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 23, 2020, 06:15:57 PM
Deaths in Lombardy flattening?  320 today after 540 Saturday.   Early days, of course.  Ferdinando Giugliano, twitter.

Let's hope so. Terrible what's happened there and quite frightening.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 23, 2020, 06:59:56 PM
Johnson is to do a broadcast at 8.30: I wonder if this might involve implementing restrictions in movement.
I'm hoping they won't ban working on allotments.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on March 23, 2020, 07:26:17 PM
I stsarted a thread some time ago about omnipotence: what was it, does God necessarily have it, etc - and was hoping for an intelligent, courteous discussion. I should have known better, of course: all the usual suspects weighed in with non-stop sarcasm and bloody insulting comments, which made me lose my temper and tell them to do something both immoral and physically impossible. I then got suspended for a month. I won't make that mistake again. Few or none of the non-believers on this forum are interested in sensible discussion.

It could go on the Faith Sharing Area (Christina :-) ) where anyone may join in but there has to be a reasonable amount of respectful dialogue. It would be interesting if you started it again. I know what I believe but thik you would do better job of putting it into words.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on March 23, 2020, 07:28:10 PM
Johnson is to do a broadcast at 8.30: I wonder if this might involve implementing restrictions in movement.

More likely he will make suggestions or advise or say it would be good idea or something...by which time we'll have nodded off and some will go to the pub for last orders.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 23, 2020, 07:34:13 PM
More likely he will make suggestions or advise or say it would be good idea or something...by which time we'll have nodded off and some will go to the pub for last orders.
It's always seemed a bit reactive but I suspect tonight needs to be a bit more stringent rather than up to now. In addition we will have the emergency powers, and he needs to say what we will do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 23, 2020, 07:50:23 PM
I think he has do advise that implementation of some form of travel restrictions will now be needed - if not he will look weak.

It would be useful if he said something about the Brexit transition period being extended until after the pandemic is under control, and also to allowing time for a wash-up of all that happens, which is an unknown,
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 23, 2020, 08:24:30 PM
No - that one is well south of here.
He's got two. One is Turnberry and the other is just North of Aberdeen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 23, 2020, 08:28:09 PM
He's got two. One is Turnberry and the other is just North of Aberdeen.

Of course he has: I'd forgotten about that one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 23, 2020, 08:33:26 PM
I think he has do advise that implementation of some form of travel restrictions will now be needed - if not he will look weak.
Actually he'd look weaker if his scientific advisors say we don't need more stringent travel restrictions but he gives in to the mob anyway.

Maybe it is the right thing to have more travel restrictions, maybe not (the number of new deaths over the last few days seems to have stabilised for now). I, for one, don't want him to be doing things to stop himself from looking weak. I want him to do things because they are the right thing to do. I know there's little hope of that because he is weak.

Quote
It would be useful if he said something about the Brexit transition period being extended until after the pandemic is under control, and also to allowing time for a wash-up of all that happens, which is an unknown,
He can't do that without the agreement of the EU. He also can't do that without looking weak. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 23, 2020, 08:38:32 PM
Actually he'd look weaker if his scientific advisors say we don't need more stringent travel restrictions but he gives in to the mob anyway.

Maybe it is the right thing to have more travel restrictions, maybe not (the number of new deaths over the last few days seems to have stabilised for now). I, for one, don't want him to be doing things to stop himself from looking weak. I want him to do things because they are the right thing to do. I know there's little hope of that because he is weak.
He can't do that without the agreement of the EU. He also can't do that without looking weak. :)
I think not talking about suspension of Brexit makes him look weak. The broadcast was ok but he needs a better speech writer and he needs to be still clearer. There was not a clear statement of sanctions. Tons of stuff badly defined
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 23, 2020, 08:46:12 PM
I think not talking about suspension of Brexit makes him look weak.
It does to you and me, but to a Brexiteer it makes him look strong. I think you are right that he does need to ask the EU for a deferment, but he may not be able to.

Quote
The broadcast was ok but he needs a better speech writer and he needs to be still clearer. There was not a clear statement of sanctions. Tons of stuff badly defined
I just read the BBC story. It seemed pretty clear to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 23, 2020, 08:57:29 PM
It does to you and me, but to a Brexiteer it makes him look strong. I think you are right that he does need to ask the EU for a deferment, but he may not be able to.
I just read the BBC story. It seemed pretty clear to me.
Then the Brexiteer is an idiot for not understanding that the  rules have changed. Trying  to not upset Brexit here is weak. If you just want to judge it by the fact that others might disagree it makes any expression of whether you think it strong ir weak worthless. .

And I watched the speech, so tell me about what enforcement means?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 23, 2020, 09:06:08 PM
Then the Brexiteer is an idiot for not understanding that the  rules have changed.
Brexiteers are renowned for not understanding the realities of modern geopolitics. What makes you think they'd get it this time?

Quote
Trying  to not upset Brexit here is weak.
Of course it is. But Johnson needs the Brexiteers to maintain his flimsy grasp on power.

Quote
And I watched the speech, so tell me about what enforcement means?
It means  they've stopped just asking us nicely. Policemen will stop us  from going about our lawful business.

I'm actually a little bit disturbed and frightened at how easily they seem to have turned this country into North Korea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 23, 2020, 09:34:39 PM
I watched Nicola Sturgeon's broadcast and she seemed clear that enforcement would involves fines. I missed part of Johnson's broadcast - did he mention fines?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 23, 2020, 09:43:24 PM
The published guidance.

https://tinyurl.com/rwp9zhu
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 23, 2020, 10:23:09 PM
Bloody hell! Draconian, or what?
Has anyone on this forum got or had Covid-19, or know anyone who has? I don't: there doesn't seem to be significant absence at work, and certainly no-one's off sick in my bit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 23, 2020, 10:29:03 PM
Bloody hell! Draconian, or what?
Has anyone on this forum got or had Covid-19, or know anyone who has? I don't: there doesn't seem to be significant absence at work, and certainly no-one's off sick in my bit.
And your expertise is?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 23, 2020, 10:36:04 PM
And your expertise is?
What the hell's that supposed to mean? What have I said that suggests I'm any kind of expert? You are trying to pick an asrgument just for the hell of it. Again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 23, 2020, 10:47:02 PM
What the hell's that supposed to mean? What have I said that suggests I'm any kind of expert? You are trying to pick an asrgument just for the hell of it. Again.
If you call something Draconian then you are making a claim. Don't make a claim if you aren't willing to back that up. What is your expertise in calling the actions Draconian?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 23, 2020, 10:52:24 PM
Don't be silly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 23, 2020, 10:55:22 PM
Don't be silly.
can you illustrate what is silly? Other than empty tedious assertion?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 23, 2020, 10:55:56 PM
It's draconian because of exponential growth.  This can run out of control, leading to hundreds of thousands of deaths, and people dying in corridors.  Check out the maths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 23, 2020, 10:59:10 PM
It's draconian because of exponential growth.  This can run out of control, leading to hundreds of thousands of deaths, and people dying in corridors.  Check out the maths.
SteveH doesn't care. He knows what the problem is and thinks the decision is wrong - because well it's SteveH stating his opinion
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 23, 2020, 11:00:30 PM
can you illustrate what is silly? Other than empty tedious assertion?
"Draconian" means, of laws and regulations, "very severe". These regulations are therefore draconian. It doesn't necessarily mean "excessively severe" - I've just checked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 23, 2020, 11:02:10 PM
SteveH doesn't care. He knows what the problem is and thinks the decision is wrong - because well it's SteveH stating his opinion
Typical NS bollocks. I did not say the regulations were wrong. Now go away - you're boring me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 23, 2020, 11:08:58 PM
Bloody hell! Draconian, or what?
Yes, but sadly necessary.

Has anyone on this forum got or had Covid-19, or know anyone who has? I don't: there doesn't seem to be significant absence at work, and certainly no-one's off sick in my bit.
Yes I do - I know a few people confirmed as having covid-19, plus plenty more who have had symptoms clearly consistent with the infection but who aren't being tested, but simply told to self isolate.

I also have colleagues in the NHS who are genuinely terrified at how hospitals will cope as the numbers of infections, symptoms requiring hospitalisation and ultimately deaths increase. Our trajectory is currently exactly the same as Italy, we are just 14 days behind.

Steve - you are a grown man - take some responsibility, stay home and follow the guidance. Don't be the person who's infection prior to developing symptoms results in 400 further infections in just a couple of weeks and (yes read it several times) results in perhaps 4 deaths, based on a conservative 1% death rate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 23, 2020, 11:12:16 PM

Steve - you are a grown man - take some responsibility, stay home and follow the guidance. Don't be the person who's infection prior to developing symptoms results in 400 further infections in just a couple of weeks and (yes read it several times) results in perhaps 4 deaths, based on a conservative 1% death rate.
I am doing. Why do you assume I'm not?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 23, 2020, 11:14:02 PM
If you call something Draconian then you are making a claim. Don't make a claim if you aren't willing to back that up. What is your expertise in calling the actions Draconian?

You don't have to have expertise to have an opinion. Personally, I think this is probably the right decision but then I'm no expert, that's just my opinion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 23, 2020, 11:14:45 PM
Bloody hell! Draconian, or what?
Has anyone on this forum got or had Covid-19, or know anyone who has? I don't: there doesn't seem to be significant absence at work, and certainly no-one's off sick in my bit.

Yes - my younger daughter had it, having tested positive for it having first gone to her GP thinking her fever indicated a recurrence of tonsillitis was on the way. She has now recovered after 10 days, and she felt lousy for most of that (she's a fit 30 year old). She has her own flat, so staying isolated wasn't a problem, but we had to leave supplies at her door.

Even for someone healthy like her it was unpleasant, so for anyone more frail or with other health problems I can see why these measures are needed to slow the transmission.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 24, 2020, 02:56:54 AM
Typical NS bollocks. I did not say the regulations were wrong. Now go away - you're boring me.
You often get bored when you are unable to justify your comments.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 24, 2020, 02:58:32 AM
You don't have to have expertise to have an opinion. Personally, I think this is probably the right decision but then I'm no expert, that's just my opinion.
You do indeed not need any expertise to have opinion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 24, 2020, 05:03:23 AM
One thing I don't understand is the difference between the advice given by the WHO, which is to take stringent measures to tackle the virus and also to test, test, test; and the advice given by some national health agencies. In Sweden they still haven't advised the government to close pubs and bars or schools, and public gatherings are only limited to 500 people. As for testing, same here in Finland as well, they've set the bar too high. Have they fallen for that herd immunity stuff? People are going to die!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 24, 2020, 07:51:49 AM
"Draconian" means, of laws and regulations, "very severe". These regulations are therefore draconian. It doesn't necessarily mean "excessively severe" - I've just checked.


And yet it's main meaning is excessively severe

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/draconian


There is an apocryphal story that the Athenians were so happy with the drop in crime under Draco that when he arrived at the theatre they showed their appreciation in the traditional mannerby throwing their cloaks at him but that they threw so many he suffocated and died.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 24, 2020, 08:04:31 AM
You often get bored when you are unable to justify your comments.
But I have justified them: I pointed out that "draconian" means "of laws and regulations, very severe". It does not necessarily mean excessively severe. It can hardly be argued that these regulations are not draconian, but they probably need to be. Your original comment which started this ridiculous spat was based on a misunderstanding of  Can we now drop it? (https://www.thefreedictionary.com/Draconian}the meaning of "draconian".[/url)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 24, 2020, 08:22:19 AM
Bloody hell! Draconian, or what?
Has anyone on this forum got or had Covid-19, or know anyone who has? I don't: there doesn't seem to be significant absence at work, and certainly no-one's off sick in my bit.

One of your dafter statements, if that is possible! ::) This virus is a pandemic and will kill many people before it is through, surely it is far better to take precautions to try to avoid getting it, however stringent. You can spend your time at home making up even crazier user names. ;D


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 24, 2020, 08:25:27 AM
Further official info on business closures.

https://tinyurl.com/ureualq
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 24, 2020, 08:49:54 AM
One of your dafter statements, if that is possible! ::) This virus is a pandemic and will kill many people before it is through, surely it is far better to take precautions to try to avoid getting it, however stringent. You can spend your time at home making up even crazier user names. ;D
I didn't suggest otherwise. I just asked, out of idle curiosity, if anyone had had it or knew anyone who had. Like NS, you should read what people have actually posted before replying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 24, 2020, 09:12:47 AM
I didn't suggest otherwise. I just asked, out of idle curiosity, if anyone had had it or knew anyone who had. Like NS, you should read what people have actually posted before replying.
[/quote And maybe you need to be clearer since Prof D also read your statement that way. The use of Draconian which has as its main meaning excessively severe, and the apparent playing down of the spread of the virus created a reasonable impression that you were playing down the seriousness.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 24, 2020, 09:26:31 AM
Bloody hell! Draconian, or what?
Has anyone on this forum got or had Covid-19, or know anyone who has? I don't: there doesn't seem to be significant absence at work, and certainly no-one's off sick in my bit.

The instructions are basically correct, but AFAICS unenforceable. In addition to which they have been really badly communicated by Johnson and other ministers. The BBC and other newsreaders are doing a better job.

We have a friend who was taken into hospital last week due to a fall, she now has covid-19, but not clear if she was infected before or after being admitted. She also has a nephew with it. Other friends have also reported relatives infected or recovering.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 24, 2020, 09:35:15 AM
Bloody hell! Draconian, or what?
Has anyone on this forum got or had Covid-19, or know anyone who has? I don't: there doesn't seem to be significant absence at work, and certainly no-one's off sick in my bit.
the boyfriend of a colleague of mine at work is a doctor and he works with coronavirus victims.

Independently, another person working for a different company in our building has tested positive.

It’s three weeks since I had contact with my colleague and two weeks since I set foot in my building and I have no symptoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 24, 2020, 09:36:16 AM
If you call something Draconian then you are making a claim. Don't make a claim if you aren't willing to back that up. What is your expertise in calling the actions Draconian?
Nobody allowed out of their houses? I’d say that is draconian.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 24, 2020, 09:36:44 AM
One thing I don't understand is the difference between the advice given by the WHO, which is to take stringent measures to tackle the virus and also to test, test, test; and the advice given by some national health agencies. In Sweden they still haven't advised the government to close pubs and bars or schools, and public gatherings are only limited to 500 people. As for testing, same here in Finland as well, they've set the bar too high. Have they fallen for that herd immunity stuff? People are going to die!

If, given a case, you can track down and test every contact then you can limit the spread without too many further measures - eventually you are going to this anyway when trying to get back to normal after the peak. The UK started out OK with this but gave up too early after lack or laxity of other measures allowed community spread - then more or less stopped testing.

Don't know what the case is in Sweden.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 24, 2020, 09:37:34 AM
It's draconian because of exponential growth.  This can run out of control, leading to hundreds of thousands of deaths, and people dying in corridors.  Check out the maths.
The UK does not currently have exponential growth on the basis of the last few days figures.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on March 24, 2020, 09:39:54 AM
Bloody hell! Draconian, or what?
You are correct - the measures are being described as draconian by the media as well. To be honest I do not think they are draconian enough - I'm in London and still many people not maintaining the 2m distance. 
Quote
Has anyone on this forum got or had Covid-19, or know anyone who has? I don't: there doesn't seem to be significant absence at work, and certainly no-one's off sick in my bit.
I know a 40 year old carer who got it - she is in intensive care - the hospital kept sending her home initially until her temperature really spiked.

But it was a little strange - I  was in A&E in a south London hospital on Sunday for 8 hours   - I had to take my husband's aunt in who was repeatedly vomiting and in severe abdominal pain. She had no temperature, no cough, no diarrhoea and they first directed us to the A&E Green area and then decided to send us to the Red area for people with potential coronavirus. Apparently in the Red area the medical staff were supposed to be wearing masks and protective aprons but actually it was a mix - some were, some weren't. A senior nurse was telling the staff they should be wearing masks, but many did not comply - so it appears that even the NHS staff I saw (including doctors) are not being stringent about rules.

My aunt and I were put in a separate room and were asked to wear masks after about 2 or 3 hours. Nurses were telling the surgical team (doctors) and other nurses that my aunt had a temperature and diarrhoea - even though they took her temperature in A&E and it was normal - and I had to keep correcting the information they were giving each other and the doctors. My aunt was swabbed for Covid-19, they took bloods, did abdominal and chest x-rays, and an ECG in A&E over the 8 hours and she has been admitted with suspected pancreatitis (blood test flagged this). She is scheduled for an ultrasound to figure out exactly what is wrong. She is still vomiting if she has even water orally, still experiencing severe abdominal pain though IV paracetamol every 4 hours plus some morphine takes the edge off for a while and then she is back to shouting in pain. They won't do the ultrasound until the Covid-19 test results are in so the doctors and nurses seem to expect her to put up with the severe pain - the doctor has not changed the pain medication plan.

My mother, who is a doctor, says there is only limited things doctors can do to manage pain as there is a risk of respiratory arrest if the dosages are increased. She said this also applies in palliative care where patients are terminal and in severe pain - the doctors can't do any more about the pain as they risk killing the patient and they may get into trouble.

Anyway, just wanted to comment on the situation I experienced inside an A&E.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 24, 2020, 09:40:55 AM
Further official info on business closures.

https://tinyurl.com/ureualq

Bicycle shops are allowed twice over, yay!

Now if only my closest had not folded last year...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 24, 2020, 10:13:20 AM
The UK does not currently have exponential growth on the basis of the last few days figures.

Which figures? Are you talking about infections or deaths or hospital admissions?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 24, 2020, 10:43:27 AM
The Times headline is "One million Britons ordered to catch the next flight home"

Why?

Here, now is the time to roll out the vans with "GO HOME" signage that May had set up...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 24, 2020, 10:43:31 AM
Which figures? Are you talking about infections or deaths or hospital admissions?
Deaths in the UK for the last 5 days: 43, 41, 33, 56, 48.
New confirmed infections: 680 647 706 1035 665.

The latter figure doesn’t tell us much because we are only testing hospital admissions. It’s like a Chernobyl radiation dosimeter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 24, 2020, 10:45:06 AM
The Times headline is "One million Britons ordered to catch the next flight home"

Why?
Presumably international flights might stop at any minute.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 24, 2020, 11:05:26 AM
If, given a case, you can track down and test every contact then you can limit the spread without too many further measures - eventually you are going to this anyway when trying to get back to normal after the peak. The UK started out OK with this but gave up too early after lack or laxity of other measures allowed community spread - then more or less stopped testing.

Don't know what the case is in Sweden.

You're right. Here in Finland we increased daily testing capacity but still only health workers and the vulnerable are being tested; if you don't belong to one of those groups and are showing symptoms you're correctly told to stay at home but you won't be tested. That's crazy. Even worse, health workers who have returned to Finland from infected areas but are not showing any symptoms are being told to go straight to work. Even crazier. If patients die because of that then the people who told them to go to work should be charged with manslaughter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 24, 2020, 11:27:00 AM
All the council waste tips are closed until further notice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 24, 2020, 12:11:08 PM
Deaths in the UK for the last 5 days: 43, 41, 33, 56, 48.
New confirmed infections: 680 647 706 1035 665.

The latter figure doesn’t tell us much because we are only testing hospital admissions. It’s like a Chernobyl radiation dosimeter.
Yesterday's figures are now in

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Deaths in the UK for the last 5 days: 41, 33, 56, 48 54
New confirmed infections: 647 706 1035 665 967

On a positive note, deaths in Italy have decreased two days in a row.

ETA so have new confirmed cases in Italy. But that might just mean they are running out of testing kits.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 24, 2020, 01:04:34 PM
I am doing.
Good

Why do you assume I'm not?
Because your post:

Bloody hell! Draconian, or what?
Has anyone on this forum got or had Covid-19, or know anyone who has? I don't: there doesn't seem to be significant absence at work, and certainly no-one's off sick in my bit.


Implies that you feel everything is being blown out of proportion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 24, 2020, 01:31:02 PM
Good
Because your post:

Bloody hell! Draconian, or what?
Has anyone on this forum got or had Covid-19, or know anyone who has? I don't: there doesn't seem to be significant absence at work, and certainly no-one's off sick in my bit.


Implies that you feel everything is being blown out of proportion.
Doesn't mean he's not complying though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on March 24, 2020, 02:01:15 PM
Good
Because your post:

Bloody hell! Draconian, or what?
Has anyone on this forum got or had Covid-19, or know anyone who has? I don't: there doesn't seem to be significant absence at work, and certainly no-one's off sick in my bit.


Implies that you feel everything is being blown out of proportion.
It actually correctly implies that the measures are beyond what is normal for our society. The new measures are definitely stricter than those we are normally used to. And I didn’t read it as giving any indication of non-compliance. You seem to have made incorrect assumptions by reading things into the post.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 24, 2020, 02:09:18 PM
So it looks like tomorrow they're going to bring in internal travel restrictions, basically sealing off the county I live in (which also includes Helsinki) from the rest of the country. Will have to see if that means I can get to work, as I work in the neighbouring county. Thankfully I live 40km north of Helsinki and so don't live in a densely populated area. The trains on my work journeys are almost empty.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 24, 2020, 02:32:39 PM
Doesn't mean he's not complying though.
True - and he has confirmed that he is, which is good.

But it isn't unreasonable to make the inference I did, and even if he is staying at home making comments that appear to diminish the seriousness of the situation is irresponsible as it may encourage others who think similarly to ignore the requirement to stay at home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 24, 2020, 02:38:58 PM
It actually correctly implies that the measures are beyond what is normal for our society. The new measures are definitely stricter than those we are normally used to. And I didn’t read it as giving any indication of non-compliance. You seem to have made incorrect assumptions by reading things into the post.
Read what I said - I agreed with him that the actions were draconian, although implied they were necessary. My main gripe was the later part of his post:

Has anyone on this forum got or had Covid-19, or know anyone who has? I don't: there doesn't seem to be significant absence at work, and certainly no-one's off sick in my bit.

This implies that because many people at this stage may not know anyone who is or has been infected that it isn't a big deal. That fundamentally misunderstands the concept of exponential growth in infections of this type, without very serious action.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 24, 2020, 04:09:00 PM
I spent some time this morning trying to find out if there was a way I could get my next shopping (needed about end of this week or beginning of next) done by some one sort of official, rather than having to ask the very kind young woman who did it for me last week. The best answer came from one of the staff at the local Surgery who said that, because she is not in any of the vulnerable categories, it would almost certainly be perfectly all right for her to do it for me. That is quite a relief because I really would not want to put anyone in any danger. Being independent and not having any need for a routine of carers - which seems to be the assumption of many on varioius gov/uk sites, because of my age and disability - I would not want to give anyone a responsibility that was unfair.

I do so hope the local high street recovers after this is all over. There is an excellent baker, family butcher, locally owned department store, electrical shop and so on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 24, 2020, 05:49:55 PM

Boris Johnson does Ghost Town

https://youtu.be/JBa0AdA2Cm8
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on March 24, 2020, 05:53:13 PM
Read what I said - I agreed with him that the actions were draconian, although implied they were necessary. My main gripe was the later part of his post:

Has anyone on this forum got or had Covid-19, or know anyone who has? I don't: there doesn't seem to be significant absence at work, and certainly no-one's off sick in my bit.

This implies that because many people at this stage may not know anyone who is or has been infected that it isn't a big deal. That fundamentally misunderstands the concept of exponential growth in infections of this type, without very serious action.

Some very good friends of ours that live directly across the road here they've remarried and it's the chaps daughter and her husband have the Coronavirus they live about five miles away from our small town.

I'm not sure which hospital the husband works at I would imagine that would be the source, we don't really like to ask, if we were speaking face to face I'm sure they would say.

Regards, ippy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 24, 2020, 07:14:44 PM
One of the attempts to raise money for those in need

https://www.glasgowist.com/artist-david-shrigley-and-synergy-concerts-collaborate-on-coronavirus-t-shirt/?fbclid=IwAR10VoJW1LymYxSM-MYt0gzyxOXBtwEBOe72ArXDpINKrMEZmwKm1iO7Qnc
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 24, 2020, 08:34:09 PM
Could it happen?

I'd be doubtful since I can't see the opposition parties getting involved unless the Brexit transition is extended: then again, this crisis might become so bad that Brexit is put on the back-burner for quite some time.

https://tinyurl.com/tcznorp
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Enki on March 24, 2020, 08:49:40 PM
Unfortunately the complexities that arise from this pernicious virus and how we deal with it can create many situations where choices have to be made which can be so difficult to deal with.

As an example, my grand daughter(who is 21) has a condition called ulcerative colitis which is kept in check by using immunosuppressant drugs, so that, normally, she has no problems. However she learned yesterday, via a government text, that she is in the high risk category and it is recommended that she self isolate. The problem is that as part of her caring work she helps and guides two strongly autistic young adults  on a daily basis and with whom she has developed a trusting relationship. She has asked my wife and myself as to what she should do and it is obvious to both of us that she is emotionally torn between carrying on or self isolating. We have given her the facts and potential risks as we see them, but in the end she knows she has to come to her own decision. Whatever it is, we will support her.

It's a worrying time for many, many people. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 24, 2020, 10:18:16 PM
Could it happen?

I'd be doubtful since I can't see the opposition parties getting involved unless the Brexit transition is extended: then again, this crisis might become so bad that Brexit is put on the back-burner for quite some time.

https://tinyurl.com/tcznorp
I've been thinking that a coalition government might be necessary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on March 25, 2020, 07:46:44 AM



The mortality rate for the Coronavirus infection seems to be very different in different countries.  In China about 3.5%, US about 1.5 %, France about 5%, Spain about 7% and Italy about 10%.  Australia about 0.5%, UK about 5%.

 
https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-maps-and-cases/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 25, 2020, 07:48:58 AM


The mortality rate for the Coronavirus infection seems to be very different in different countries.  In China about 3.5%, US about 1.5 %, France about 5%, Spain about 7% and Italy about 10%.  Australia about 0.5%, UK about 5%.

 
https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-maps-and-cases/
I suspect that's more about the level of testing going on rather than a real effect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 25, 2020, 08:10:44 AM
Could it happen?

I'd be doubtful since I can't see the opposition parties getting involved unless the Brexit transition is extended: then again, this crisis might become so bad that Brexit is put on the back-burner for quite some time.

https://tinyurl.com/tcznorp

We have a government with an absolute majority. It might not be a very good one, but it is one. Why do we need a coalition? Perhaps these early words in the article tell us.

Quote
Senior Conservatives are questioning whether Boris Johnson will need a national unity government or emergency cross-party council to share responsibility for the coronavirus crisis if the situation worsens.

They don't want the buck to stop with the Tories. Or maybe I am just being too cynical.

Quote
One Tory MP said there was a political argument that Johnson may be keen to “drag Labour in” so the public do not associate the crisis solely with the Conservatives, if the situation worsens.
Oh look. At least one Tory is as cynical as me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 25, 2020, 08:11:45 AM
Quote
They don't want the buck to stop with the Tories. Or maybe I am just being too cynical

No you are not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 25, 2020, 08:22:05 AM
We have a government with an absolute majority. It might not be a very good one, but it is one. Why do we need a coalition? Perhaps these early words in the article tell us.

They don't want the buck to stop with the Tories. Or maybe I am just being too cynical.
Oh look. At least one Tory is as cynical as me.
But otoh, if a coalition government's measures were a resounding success, they couldn't claim all the credit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 25, 2020, 08:29:26 AM
I suspect that's more about the level of testing going on rather than a real effect.

Or how you record the deaths. The wording on the gov.uk website goes like this

Quote
As of 1pm on 23 March 2020, 335 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.

If you are positive for coronavirus and you then die for whatever reason, you are in the British figure. It's possible that another hypothetical country where they wish to downplay the effects of the virus - let's call it the Federated Counties of Vinland - might record the immediate cause of death e.g. somebody who tested positive for coronavirus and who then died of pneumonia would be recorded as having died of pneumonia and not counted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 25, 2020, 08:35:24 AM
But otoh, if a coalition government's measures were a resounding success, they couldn't claim all the credit.

I honestly don't think that anything the government can do will be regarded as a resounding success. This crisis is too difficult to come out of it smelling of roses.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 25, 2020, 08:40:43 AM
Quote
If you are positive for coronavirus and you then die for whatever reason, you are in the British figure. It's possible that another hypothetical country where they wish to downplay the effects of the virus - let's call it the Federated Counties of Vinland - might record the immediate cause of death e.g. somebody who tested positive for coronavirus and who then died of pneumonia would be recorded as having died of pneumonia and not counted.

This is a problem that has existed for years with Clinical Coding in hospitals. If you have ever seen the volumes linked to ICD10 you will know what an intricate and difficult task coding can be. In the past that was made worse by coders having to decipher consultants writing. It is better now with the move to computerised notes, etc., but even then the system is open to "interpretation" at several levels. In normal times it is hard enough to get a fully accurate picture of reasons for death. Now, it is probably impossible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 25, 2020, 08:47:29 AM
On the positive side:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/23/coronavirus-pandemic-leading-to-huge-drop-in-air-pollution

Satellite images show a huge reduction in pollution.

A bit like this event, maybe?

2 Chronicles 36:20-21
And them that had escaped from the sword carried he away to Babylon; where they were servants to him and his sons until the reign of the kingdom of Persia: To fulfill the word of the LORD by the mouth of Jeremiah, until the land had enjoyed her sabbaths: for as long as she lay desolate she kept sabbath, to fulfill three score and ten years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 25, 2020, 08:51:41 AM
Noise pollution is down too - without the noise from the M26 1 mile from me, it's like living in the countryside.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 25, 2020, 08:53:48 AM
On the positive side:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/23/coronavirus-pandemic-leading-to-huge-drop-in-air-pollution

Satellite images show a huge reduction in pollution.
True and certainly in China it is likely that there have been more lives saved through reduced pollution than lost to covid-19

A bit like this event, maybe?

2 Chronicles 36:21
To fulfill the word of the LORD by the mouth of Jeremiah, until the land had enjoyed her sabbaths: for as long as she lay desolate she kept sabbath, to fulfill three score and ten years.
Nope
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 25, 2020, 09:27:21 AM
True and certainly in China it is likely that there have been more lives saved through reduced pollution than lost to covid-19
Nope
A lock down every seven years might help though!

But in the seventh year there shall be a Sabbath of complete rest for the land--a Sabbath to the LORD.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 25, 2020, 10:40:00 AM
A lock down every seven years might help though!

But in the seventh year there shall be a Sabbath of complete rest for the land--a Sabbath to the LORD.

That guy isn't doing anything to help eradicate the virus if he is still alive and kicking! >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 25, 2020, 10:57:18 AM
Prince Charles has tested positive for Covid 19.

Hopefully for once in his life he will serve a purpose in that it will bring home to the public that anyone can get this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 25, 2020, 11:01:54 AM
A lock down every seven years might help though!
How on earth would locking people down every seven years help, unless there is a reason to do so, i.e. a pandemic?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 25, 2020, 11:26:35 AM
How on earth would locking people down every seven years help, unless there is a reason to do so, i.e. a pandemic?

Ideally it would be permanent, but since that would be unrealistic before the New Heavens and Earth, a seventh-year lock down policy might enable the planet's atmosphere to recover, similar to how leaving the ground fallow for a year enables it to.

In case it wasn't clear, God set the seventh year no-ploughing rule for Israel, but because they apparently didn't apply it he sent the Babylonians to take them out of the land so that it could 'enjoy its sabbath rests' - 70 years, one year to represent every seventh during a 490-year period.

I think Littleroses might disagree, but I wonder if the virus is sent by God to enforce his law that we look after the planet. He said after the flood that the seasons would continue without sending another flood to destroy the earth; but he still has to intervene if we don't look after it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 25, 2020, 11:28:15 AM
Ideally it would be permanent, but since that would be unrealistic before the New Heavens and Earth, a seventh-year lock down policy might enable the planet's atmosphere to recover, similar to how leaving the ground fallow for a year enables it to.

In case it wasn't clear, God set the seventh year no-ploughing rule for Israel, but because they apparently didn't apply it he sent the Babylonians to take them out of the land so that it could 'enjoy its sabbath rests' - 70 years, one year to represent every seventh during a 490-year period.

I think Littleroses might disagree, but I wonder if the virus is sent by God to enforce his law that we look after the planet. He said after the flood that the seasons would continue without sending another flood to destroy the earth; but he still has to intervene if we don't look after it.
Your god is a fucking psychopath
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 25, 2020, 11:28:52 AM
How on earth would locking people down every seven years help, unless there is a reason to do so, i.e. a pandemic?

It also makes us face our mortality and take God seriously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 25, 2020, 11:29:35 AM
Prince Charles has tested positive for Covid 19.

Hopefully for once in his life he will serve a purpose in that it will bring home to the public that anyone can get this.
Though he shouldn't have travelled to Balmoral
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 25, 2020, 11:30:53 AM
Your god is a fucking psychopath
Swearing just means what we are saying isn't true, so we need some way of emphasizing it to make people believe it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 25, 2020, 11:33:01 AM
It also makes us face our mortality and take God seriously.

Not sure I can take seriously a God who sends a plague to kill people that he supposedly loves. (And for Steveh I am only replying to Spuds specific assertion that God may have sent the virus - he said it not me).

Sounds as usual that God is a reflection of the posters views rather than any serious theological thought taking place.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 25, 2020, 11:35:23 AM
Swearing just means what we are saying isn't true, so we need some way of emphasizing it to make people believe it.

I think the point is, based on what you posted earlier, that as portrayed by what you posted your 'God' is indeed a fucking psychopath, Spud.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 25, 2020, 11:36:19 AM
I am very sorry to hear that Prince Charles has it.

I phoned the local Town Hall and spoke to someone who gave me the number of a Councillor who has taken on the task of co-ordinating local help group. Left a message and she phoned back. They are getting organised as quicly as possible so that sounds promising.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 25, 2020, 11:38:41 AM
I am very sorry to hear that Prince Charles has it.

I phoned the local Town Hall and spoke to someone who gave me the number of a Councillor who has taken on the task of co-ordinating local help group. Left a message and she phoned back. They are getting organised as quicly as possible so that sounds promising.

Hopefully Charlie boy will recover soon, and his Mummy hasn't got it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 25, 2020, 11:43:44 AM
Hopefully Charlie boy will recover soon, and his Mummy hasn't got it.
Given that "corona" means "crown", it seems appropriate that it's reached the royals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 25, 2020, 11:47:14 AM
Swearing just means what we are saying isn't true, so we need some way of emphasizing it to make people believe it.
Swearing doesn't fucking mean that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 25, 2020, 11:48:48 AM
I am very sorry to hear that Prince Charles has it.

I phoned the local Town Hall and spoke to someone who gave me the number of a Councillor who has taken on the task of co-ordinating local help group. Left a message and she phoned back. They are getting organised as quicly as possible so that sounds promising.
He's a disgrace for travelling with it against the general advice, especially having been in contact with people who had been diagnosed with it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 25, 2020, 11:55:34 AM
I see there are a few negative comments coming in, such as this one from the Torygraph journalist, Allison Pearson.

Quote
If they can manage to test Prince Charles for “mild symptoms” of Coronavirus they can damn well test nurses, doctors and paramedics on the frontline. No excuse!#COVID19
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 25, 2020, 12:06:41 PM
Ideally it would be permanent, but since that would be unrealistic before the New Heavens and Earth, a seventh-year lock down policy might enable the planet's atmosphere to recover, similar to how leaving the ground fallow for a year enables it to.
Or we can develop cleaner technologies that reduce emissions by 14% or more which would have the same or greater effect without massively impacting on our mental/physical health and our economy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 25, 2020, 12:07:38 PM
I see there are a few negative comments coming in, such as this one from the Torygraph journalist, Allison Pearson.
I rarely agree with her - yesterday she posted that she hoped Made In China become a mark of shame from her iPhone - but I do here. The whole not behaving as the proles are expected to, and the privileges of this is part of a deep malaise in this country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 25, 2020, 01:58:05 PM
I rarely agree with her - yesterday she posted that she hoped Made In China become a mark of shame from her iPhone - but I do here. The whole not behaving as the proles are expected to, and the privileges of this is part of a deep malaise in this country.

I agree he should have behaved the same way as everybody else is expected to behave. It  was a serious PR error. I can't agree with your "deep malaise" characterisation  though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 25, 2020, 02:05:55 PM
Yesterday's figures are now in

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Bad news for the  UK, unfortunately, there was a significant jump in deaths

Deaths in the UK for the last 5 days: 33, 56, 48 54 87

Hopefully, it should be obvious that deaths lag a bit, so the above is not a reflection of yesterday's lockdown measures or even Friday's closing of pubs etc.

New confirmed infections: 706 1035 665 967 1,427

Italy also seems to have had a slight regression with deaths and new cases increasing slightly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 25, 2020, 02:30:22 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52036333

Drivers have a six month extension on getting their vehicles MOT'd. Blow it, I got mine done early, which means I will have to pay my car tax by April 18th instead of April 28th!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 25, 2020, 02:46:25 PM
Hopeful noises from Neil Ferguson (Imperial College), and Jenny Harries, deputy chief medical officer, that the UK bulge will be flattened,  "The peak of it will be pushed forward and the height lower ", hence manageable by NHS.  Harries is on Mumsnet, and Ferguson in Times and BBC.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 25, 2020, 03:14:51 PM
One thing I don't understand is the difference between the advice given by the WHO, which is to take stringent measures to tackle the virus and also to test, test, test; and the advice given by some national health agencies. In Sweden they still haven't advised the government to close pubs and bars or schools, and public gatherings are only limited to 500 people. As for testing, same here in Finland as well, they've set the bar too high. Have they fallen for that herd immunity stuff? People are going to die!

Article on Swedish approach to the epidemic ( FT but free to read):

https://www.ft.com/content/31de03b8-6dbc-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

Which is surprising, not the test and track containment I had assumed before. Maybe the Swedish are just more sensible without needing to be ordered about?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 25, 2020, 03:20:37 PM
Hopeful noises from Neil Ferguson (Imperial College), and Jenny Harries, deputy chief medical officer, that the UK bulge will be flattened,  "The peak of it will be pushed forward and the height lower ", hence manageable by NHS.  Harries is on Mumsnet, and Ferguson in Times and BBC.

The big caveat is that it requires the current measures to be followed by most of the population. Of-course if they do, and the NHS manages to work through this, the usual crowd will go on about how it was all unnecessary and a big hoax and they want more compensation.
 
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 25, 2020, 03:26:05 PM
Yesterday's figures are now in

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Bad news for the  UK, unfortunately, there was a significant jump in deaths

Deaths in the UK for the last 5 days: 33, 56, 48 54 87

Hopefully, it should be obvious that deaths lag a bit, so the above is not a reflection of yesterday's lockdown measures or even Friday's closing of pubs etc.

New confirmed infections: 706 1035 665 967 1,427

Italy also seems to have had a slight regression with deaths and new cases increasing slightly.

The death figures will lag about 2 weeks behind the 'cases' figures. But you can't just pin hopes on daily figures. The 87 deaths yesterday are not 'significant', just a few people died who would have otherwise died the previous day or today. You would get more from the doubling time figures, but they don't change very fast.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 25, 2020, 03:36:22 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52036333

Drivers have a six month extension on getting their vehicles MOT'd. Blow it, I got mine done early, which means I will have to pay my car tax by April 18th instead of April 28th!

I'm really not at all happy that there could be cars driving around that have not had a proper safety inspection for 18 months. I would  argue for MoT testing to be an essential service.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 25, 2020, 03:48:13 PM
The death figures will lag about 2 weeks behind the 'cases' figures. But you can't just pin hopes on daily figures.
There's no other way to check on how we are doing.

Quote
The 87 deaths yesterday are not 'significant', just a few people died who would have otherwise died the previous day or today. You would get more from the doubling time figures, but they don't change very fast.
That's why I quote five days because it gives a better idea of a trend. Doubling time pretty much assumes that growth is exponential - for instance, talking about a doubling time for China (39 days as of today). However, that is misleading because China's deaths are not growing exponentially. In fact new deaths per day are not growing at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 25, 2020, 04:06:47 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-policy-scientific-dominic-cummings?CMP=share_btn_tw

Interesting article but always easier in hindsight:

Quote
As we said, when one deals with deep uncertainty, both governance and precaution require us to hedge for the worst. While risk-taking is a business that is left to individuals, collective safety and systemic risk are the business of the state. Failing that mandate of prudence by gambling with the lives of citizens is a professional wrongdoing that extends beyond academic mistake; it is a violation of the ethics of governing.

The obvious policy left now is a lockdown, with overactive testing and contact tracing: follow the evidence from China and South Korea rather than thousands of error-prone computer codes. So we have wasted weeks, and ones that matter with a multiplicative threat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 25, 2020, 04:45:46 PM
Article on Swedish approach to the epidemic ( FT but free to read):

https://www.ft.com/content/31de03b8-6dbc-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

Which is surprising, not the test and track containment I had assumed before. Maybe the Swedish are just more sensible without needing to be ordered about?

Thanks for the link. I suppose only time will tell if their strategy works (or any other country's, for that matter).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on March 25, 2020, 04:53:50 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-policy-scientific-dominic-cummings?CMP=share_btn_tw

Interesting article but always easier in hindsight:

Taleb has been attacking the mitigation approach from the beginning.  He has several threads on Twitter, maths is a bit beyond me.  Author of the Black Swan.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 25, 2020, 05:18:21 PM

Quite incredible

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-challenge-moron-who-licked-21749466.amp?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar&__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on March 25, 2020, 05:23:32 PM
Hopefully Charlie boy will recover soon, and his Mummy hasn't got it.

I see big ears has the dreaded virus the even bigger worry is, if his infection did start to take for the worse I hope the authorities can find a bed for him.

I don't wish him ill but I find the whole principle of hereditary inanely mindless and stupid, we might just as well have 'hereditary mathematicians', (Thomas Paine), it'd certainly make as much sense as the present arrangement.

No doubt the media wont know how to stop when they've already said enough about Charlie boy, more blasted royalist soap.

ippy
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 25, 2020, 06:58:05 PM
Quite incredible

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-challenge-moron-who-licked-21749466.amp?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar&__twitter_impression=true

Yes, well I think Piers Morgan  branding him as scum is a bit unfair. "unbelievably stupid" yes, fair enough. I'd  like reserve the word  "scum" for people like...

... well, like Piers Morgan.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 25, 2020, 07:03:54 PM
I see big ears has the dreaded virus the even bigger worry is, if his infection did start to take for the worse I hope the authorities can find a bed for him.

I don't wish him ill
Yeah, you do. You're crowing about it and you are insulting him by making fun of a physical imperfection.

Quote
but I find the whole principle of hereditary inanely mindless and stupid
And I find  the whole little Englander ethos of the  Brexiteers inanely mindless and  stupid.

Quote
we might just as well have 'hereditary mathematicians',
No. Being a mathematician requires a  level of mental skill. Being the constitutional head of state requires no skill whatsoever.

Quote
No doubt the media wont know how to stop when they've already said enough about Charlie boy, more blasted royalist soap.

People like this sort of thing. Even you. And don't tell me you didn't enjoy writing your post.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 25, 2020, 07:07:00 PM
Taleb has been attacking the mitigation approach from the beginning.  He has several threads on Twitter, maths is a bit beyond me.  Author of the Black Swan.

Black Swan was great and he is fun on twitter. Looking forward to searching out and tackling his maths ... once my own mathematical knowledge is developed enough and I have time.

His writing is quite contrarian or "roguish" so I'm never quite sure if it is all a facade or he has some true mathematical insights.
 
btw. some commentators have described the arrival of covid-19 as a "black swan" event, but I don't think it is - we should have planned for something like this and did have plenty of warnings.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on March 25, 2020, 07:27:44 PM
Yeah, you do. You're crowing about it and you are insulting him by making fun of a physical imperfection.
And I find  the whole little Englander ethos of the  Brexiteers inanely mindless and  stupid.
No. Being a mathematician requires a  level of mental skill. Being the constitutional head of state requires no skill whatsoever.

People like this sort of thing. Even you. And don't tell me you didn't enjoy writing your post.

Have a good day j p, what's left of it. Regards, ippy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 25, 2020, 08:34:11 PM
This seems real. And could be interesting

https://covid.joinzoe.com/?fbclid=IwAR2tw_L8rWw708odd8swO4MaK_Cp1HyyXnB_IdimzQKk1gfKaWNl8NehbvM
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 25, 2020, 08:36:21 PM
And home working outfits


https://www.newyorker.com/humor/daily-shouts/fashionable-outfits-for-working-from-home?mbid=social_facebook&utm_social-type=paid&utm_brand=tny&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&kwp_0=1604300&fbclid=IwAR3X4-iVKbvcNBMkc07kcUuia3ozsYedTRw4BmDhnCj1vm1W6MWuVT2C_AE
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 25, 2020, 09:52:04 PM
And Charles was a fucking prick.



https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus/fury-former-snp-mp-brands-prince-charles-arrogant-fool-travelling-coronavirus-2517906
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 25, 2020, 10:26:17 PM
The censorious self-righteousness on display every day in the 'Hemel Hempstead Community and Conversation' Facebook group is rather depressing. Some people are going out of their way to find things to condemn in posts, such as a video of people walikg in a London park, enjoying the sunshine, and, as far as I could see, keeping a reasonable distance from each other.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 25, 2020, 10:57:26 PM
The censorious self-righteousness on display every day in the 'Hemel Hempstead Community and Conversation' Facebook group is rather depressing. Some people are going out of their way to find things to condemn in posts, such as a video of people walikg in a London park, enjoying the sunshine, and, as far as I could see, keeping a reasonable distance from each other.
STEVE

I have no idea about living in a city , all my life I've lived in the countryside , even when at uni .
My daughter has come back from London now to the DALES

We only know open spaces . It is not difficult for us

The irony for me is ive come to park up at my sons place in the dales and his wife is an NHS doc
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 26, 2020, 03:28:51 AM
As of Friday all non-essential travel in or out of the county I live in is banned. As far as I can make out I can still go to work, though whether or not I can do that via public transport, I don't know. Thankfully I can borrow my mum's car if need be. The OB will enforce the ban and will probably ask the armed forces to help them with road blocks etc.

My mum told me she had a sore throat yesterday but as yet no other symptoms, so hopefully it's nothing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sassy on March 26, 2020, 07:49:23 AM
I see the MD of the CofE has decided that we need prayers, and has kicked this off as follows:

https://twitter.com/hashtag/NationalDayOfPrayer?src=hash

One wonders if those praying to 'God' might ask it why it didn't step in much earlier, such as before this all kicked off.

Would it have happened if people like yourself actually believed and prayed?

There is no reason for you reply because the truth is no one even now are really letting this threat sink in as you can see by people being removed from park and being made to keep 2 meters apart from each other. Praying plays a big part read James 5.     
Quote
It leaves me in no doubt how much people will be praying for themselves and loves ones at this time. The virus has suddenly broken the daily routine of getting up and feeling safe as you go to work. Some having not prayed for years will suddenly find the need to pray. God answers prayers. Never think he will not listen or answer prayer because until now he has never been a fore runner in your life. 14 Is any sick among you? let him call for the elders of the church; and let them pray over him, anointing him with oil in the name of the Lord:
15 And the prayer of faith shall save the sick, and the Lord shall raise him up; and if he have committed sins, they shall be forgiven him.
16 Confess your faults one to another, and pray one for another, that ye may be healed. The effectual fervent prayer of a righteous man availeth much.
17 Elias was a man subject to like passions as we are, and he prayed earnestly that it might not rain: and it rained not on the earth by the space of three years and six months.
18 And he prayed again, and the heaven gave rain, and the earth brought forth her fruit.
19 Brethren, if any of you do err from the truth, and one convert him;
20 Let him know, that he which converteth the sinner from the error of his way shall save a soul from death, and shall hide a multitude of sins.        Sometimes we do not realise how much can change by the prayer of one person. According to Paul he said I am the righteousness of God in Christ Jesus!
2 Corinthians 5:21   We can never be righteous by our own doing but God makes us righteous when we believe him about Jesus his son. So pray not think about being righteous off yourself. Rather pray in the righteousness of God through Christ Jesus.  Don't stop praying for the riddence of this virus and for others to be saved and made well. in Jesus Name, Amen

The truth is that just one righteous man can make a difference in prayer. Which would you say is most difficult to receive... No rain for three years or no virus for good?  Everyone of us can make a difference by praying for others. And who knows if that one believing in Gods righteousness through Christ asks and receives the end of the deaths.       Sometimes it pays to pray because who knows you might help save someone by asking God for his help. Ultimately God is the saving power.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 26, 2020, 08:10:50 AM
Would it have happened if people like yourself actually believed and prayed?

There is no reason for you reply because the truth is no one even now are really letting this threat sink in as you can see by people being removed from park and being made to keep 2 meters apart from each other. Praying plays a big part read James 5.     
The truth is that just one righteous man can make a difference in prayer. Which would you say is most difficult to receive... No rain for three years or no virus for good?  Everyone of us can make a difference by praying for others. And who knows if that one believing in Gods righteousness through Christ asks and receives the end of the deaths.       Sometimes it pays to pray because who knows you might help save someone by asking God for his help. Ultimately God is the saving power.

Praying doesn’t work. Well, it might help the mental state of the person doing the praying but nothing else.

Coronavirus is a natural phenomenon. Your god didn’t do it. Your god won’t help us get out of this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 26, 2020, 08:22:59 AM
If god exists most of the time it appears to stick two fingers up at those who pray for healing, maybe it enjoys human suffering.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 26, 2020, 08:24:07 AM
Would it have happened if people like yourself actually believed and prayed?
Yes, of course it would.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 26, 2020, 08:39:28 AM
I hope people will be sensible and obey the restrictions being put on their movements, like not visiting parks, beaches or other places where they like to congregate. I have to pick up my husband's meds from the local pharmacy today. Instead of opening from 9am-5.30pm on weekdays as usual, they are opening from 10am-12pm and then 3pm-5pm. Only one person is permitted to go inside at a time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 26, 2020, 09:17:38 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52043767

This is absolutely bonkers - we don't need a new, untested ventilator (which even if it works NHS won't be experienced in operating and will need to be trained) - what we need are huge numbers of tried and tested designs. And if Dyson have a facility that can make thousands of ventilators they should make it available to produce existing designs, not some new experimental one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SweetPea on March 26, 2020, 09:25:21 AM
I hope people will be sensible and obey the restrictions being put on their movements, like not visiting parks, beaches or other places where they like to congregate. I have to pick up my husband's meds from the local pharmacy today. Instead of opening from 9am-5.30pm on weekdays as usual, they are opening from 10am-12pm and then 3pm-5pm. Only one person is permitted to go inside at a time.

….. and I hope people are able to get out and take what is now restricted to once daily exercise. We have taken walks the past four days in green areas and everyone we have seen is abiding well to the 2 metre distancing rule.

This 'self-isolating' will play havoc with some folks' mental health so it is vital that they are able to leave their 'confinement' at some stage during the day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 26, 2020, 09:33:22 AM
If god exists most of the time it appears to stick two fingers up at those who pray for healing, maybe it enjoys human suffering.
BORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORING
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on March 26, 2020, 10:20:19 AM
BORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORING

Usually accurate as well!

ippy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 26, 2020, 11:24:08 AM
BORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORINGBORING

I agree many of your posts are very boring as well as inaccurate. :P ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 26, 2020, 11:25:06 AM
915 confirmed cases now here and 5 deaths in total. Today was recorded 35 new cases, a drop from previous days but then they do not test all suspected cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 26, 2020, 01:37:51 PM
A friend who is a nurse has just been moved into Intensive Therapy Unit with suspected coronavirus. Expected to be put on a ventilator this afternoon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 26, 2020, 01:50:11 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52043767

This is absolutely bonkers - we don't need a new, untested ventilator

Quote
The order is still subject to the devices passing stringent medical tests but that is expected to happen quickly.


Quote
And if Dyson have a facility that can make thousands of ventilators they should make it available to produce existing designs, not some new experimental one.

That may not be possible. Dyson factories will be equipped with certain types of machinery and traditional ventilators may not be amongst the items that that machinery can make. Maybe the choice is between thousands of these new ventilators or a few hundred extra traditional ones. Neither of us know the true situation, so ranting about it doesn't seem like a constructive use of time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 26, 2020, 02:06:45 PM

That may not be possible. Dyson factories will be equipped with certain types of machinery and traditional ventilators may not be amongst the items that that machinery can make. Maybe the choice is between thousands of these new ventilators or a few hundred extra traditional ones. Neither of us know the true situation, so ranting about it doesn't seem like a constructive use of time.
They don't have any machinery in their unit as yet as they'd originally planned it to be used for manufacturing electric cars. If you have a large empty industrial unit it will be just as easy to introduce the necessary tooling to scale up production for existing designs than a new design. But the advantage is that the existing designs can be produced and used straight away, while the new design cannot be used until sufficient testing has be done to prove the design is safe and effective.

The article is talking about weeks, even if there is very rapid regulatory approval - we could be producing thousands of ventilators of existing designs right now.

And if you introduce a new design into the NHS their staff will need to be trained on the new system - personally I'd prefer front line staff to be saving lives rather than being trained on a new and totally superfluous ventilator design when there are existing designs available - all we need is the scale-up manufacturing space.

Of course it goes without saying that James Dyson is a tory donor and leading brexit supporter.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 26, 2020, 02:15:21 PM
They don't have any machinery in their unit as yet as they'd originally planned it to be used for manufacturing electric cars. If you have a large empty industrial unit it will be just as easy to introduce the necessary tooling to scale up production for existing designs than a new design.
Can I ask what your  expertise is on manufacturing technology?

Quote
But that advantage is that the existing designs can be produced and used straight away

Well they can't can they. Otherwise we would be doing it.

Quote
The article is talking about weeks, even if there is very rapid regulatory approval - we could be producing thousands of ventilators of existing designs right now.
What makes you think people aren't producing ventilators as fast as they can already?

Quote
Of course it goes without saying that James Dyson is a tory donor and leading brexit supporter.
I thought you better than a mere purveyor of ad hominem arguments.

Here's a more detailed version of the story.

https://www.ft.com/content/4cc667f2-6ee2-11ea-89df-41bea055720b
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 26, 2020, 02:16:46 PM
That may not be possible. Dyson factories will be equipped with certain types of machinery and traditional ventilators may not be amongst the items that that machinery can make. Maybe the choice is between thousands of these new ventilators or a few hundred extra traditional ones. Neither of us know the true situation, so ranting about it doesn't seem like a constructive use of time.
See also:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52021757

Note:
'Meanwhile, a consortium of more than a dozen companies aims to build ventilators based on two existing designs.'

And Dyson saying:
"This is a highly complex project being undertaken in an extremely challenging timeframe," it added.
"We are conducting a fully regulated medical device development, including testing in the laboratory and in humans, and we are scaling up for volume."

Why engage in a 'highly complex project being undertaken in an extremely challenging timeframe' when you can just build existing designs as the other companies are doing.

Note too:
"Recreating established prototypes is likely to be a faster way to deal with the immediate demand," Dr Marion Hersh, senior lecturer in biomedical engineering at the University of Glasgow, told the BBC.

And sure she says that 'there could be value in more than one option in the slightly longer term', but we aren't interested in the longer term - we need thousands of ventilators right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 26, 2020, 02:21:53 PM
Can I ask what your expertise is on manufacturing technology?
Err ex head of an Engineering School in a leading university.

Well they can't can they. Otherwise we would be doing it.
They can, that's exactly what a consortium of more than a dozen companies are doing. If Dyson really want to help they should join that consortium, but they've chosen not to.
 
What makes you think people aren't producing ventilators as fast as they can already?
They'd be able to produce them faster if Dyson joined the effort to produce more ventilators of existing designs rather than putting their efforts into designing something new that won't be available for weeks or months and even once available will require NHS staff to use up precious time being trained on the new equipment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 26, 2020, 02:22:48 PM
https://www.ft.com/content/4cc667f2-6ee2-11ea-89df-41bea055720b
Behind the paywall so unable to read or comment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 26, 2020, 02:31:26 PM
Well they can't can they. Otherwise we would be doing it.
How come Dyson can't, but the following can:
Airbus
Ford
McLaran
Rolls Royce
plus others

Who have all joined the consortium to turn their manufacturing expertise and facilities towards the production of two existing designs of ventilators. Are you going to challenge them on their expertise in manufacturing technology?

I completely agree with Prof Nick Oliver from the Edinburgh Business School (are you going to challenge his expertise too?) quoted as saying: that time could be wasted if inexperienced companies tried to design and produce their own ventilators.
"Great products come from painstaking testing, refinement and a deep understanding of the context of use," he added.
"Rather than tasking non-medical companies to develop and produce ventilators from scratch, policymakers would do better to focus on how to extend the capacity of existing device manufacturers, who already have this detailed knowledge.
"Celebrating inventiveness and resourcefulness is all well and good, but this is not the top priority at the moment."
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 26, 2020, 02:58:02 PM
It's been confirmed that concripts from the army are going to help the OB with road checks and monitoring of users of public transport, that only those who have a genuine reason to cross the regional border can do so. All others will be turned away. My employer issued us all a document to show the authorities at the check points. The last week or so residents from my region have been flocking to their summer cabins and to Lappland, and it's that kind of movent the government wants to put an end to. We still have one region without a single confirmed case. About 70% of all cases are in the region I live in. This hasn't been helped by about 200,000 Finns rerturning from abroad, mainly from infected areas, with little instruction when they arrive, except to isolate themselves for two weeks. Though the vast majority do, there are enough idiots amongst them that don't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 26, 2020, 03:16:29 PM
Yesterday's figures are now in

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Bad news for the  UK, unfortunately, there was a significant jump in deaths

Deaths in the UK for the last 5 days: 33, 56, 48 54 87

Hopefully, it should be obvious that deaths lag a bit, so the above is not a reflection of yesterday's lockdown measures or even Friday's closing of pubs etc.

New confirmed infections: 706 1035 665 967 1,427

Italy also seems to have had a slight regression with deaths and new cases increasing slightly.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Zero reported deaths in the UK yesterday.

Deaths in the UK for the last 6 days: 33, 56, 48 54 87 0

New confirmed infections: 706 1035 665 967 1,427 1,452

Italy deaths and new cases have stabilised for the last few days. The USA reported nearly 14,000 new cases. That may just be a reflection of them finally getting their testing into gear.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 26, 2020, 03:18:29 PM
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Zero reported deaths in the UK yesterday.
Hmm - somehow think that is because the UK hasn't reported for yesterday yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 26, 2020, 03:23:05 PM
Hmm - somehow think that is because the UK hasn't reported for yesterday yet.

They have been messing about with the time figures are released:

https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1243104190202818561

As far as I have understood we will get figures delayed by nearly two days: today we see figures for 9am on the 25th; Tomorrow we will get figures from 9am today.
 
ETA: That applies for the confirmed cases figure. The total deaths figure is from 5pm: ie. This morning (27th) we see the updated deaths figure at 5pm on 25th. 

ETA: Seems to have settled down now: Each afternoon the cases as of 9am that day and deaths to 5pm the previous day are reported:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 26, 2020, 03:27:09 PM
Hmm - somehow think that is because the UK hasn't reported for yesterday yet.
I concur.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 26, 2020, 03:30:12 PM
Another short and to the point article from Taleb and friends:

https://medium.com/incerto/corporate-socialism-the-government-is-bailing-out-investors-managers-not-you-3b31a67bff4a

"Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You" (in the US)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 26, 2020, 03:34:44 PM
They have been messing about with the time figures are released:

https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1243104190202818561

As far as I have understood we will get figures delayed by nearly two days: today we see figures for 9am on the 25th; Tomorrow we will get figures from 9am today.

That's a bit worrying. We already know the figures for confirmed cases is really measuring the amount of testing that the government can be bothered to do. Now they are planning to massage the death figures and, in fact, because of consent issues, we may always have been under reporting.

There is literally no way in the UK to measure the extent of the outbreak at present. Unbelievable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 26, 2020, 03:41:48 PM
That's a bit worrying. We already know the figures for confirmed cases is really measuring the amount of testing that the government can be bothered to do. Now they are planning to massage the death figures and, in fact, because of consent issues, we may always have been under reporting.

There is literally no way in the UK to measure the extent of the outbreak at present. Unbelievable.

Now we are a free country, we can have whatever figures we likes... ?  8)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 26, 2020, 05:46:33 PM
PSG to donate 100,000€ to fight coronavirus. That's like me donating 5p.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/52051053
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 26, 2020, 06:00:27 PM
A friend who is a nurse has just been moved into Intensive Therapy Unit with suspected coronavirus. Expected to be put on a ventilator this afternoon.
Confirmed that they have cv but not needing to be put on a ventilator.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 26, 2020, 06:10:59 PM
Confirmed that they have cv but not needing to be put on a ventilator.

Hopefully a speedy recovery.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 26, 2020, 06:19:46 PM
Confirmed that they have cv but not needing to be put on a ventilator.

I hope they make a speedy recovery.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 26, 2020, 06:31:39 PM
103 people have died in the last 24 hrs here in the UK, the highest daily death total so far. There have now been 578 deaths from the virus. :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 26, 2020, 06:42:56 PM
103 people have died in the last 24 hrs here in the UK, the highest daily death total so far. There have now been 578 deaths from the virus. :o

You have to be a bit careful about the figures because (as discussed  above) they have changed the way they are reporting the figures.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 26, 2020, 06:45:54 PM
Had a phishing text about my phone account. Be very careful about the use of cv on such things.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 26, 2020, 07:45:25 PM
Had a phishing text about my phone account. Be very careful about the use of cv on such things.
i had one about my Netflix account .
Strange really, I don't have Netflix.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 26, 2020, 08:16:47 PM
Did the 8o'clock clap on the balcony for NHS staff. Not sure ig it makes a difference but glad to do it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 26, 2020, 08:48:06 PM
Did the 8o'clock clap on the balcony for NHS staff. Not sure ig it makes a difference but glad to do it.
well I can confirm it did . My daughter -in-law was made up!

I sent her clapping hands emojis cos we're not in the same room/house, 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Enki on March 26, 2020, 08:49:27 PM
Did the 8o'clock clap on the balcony for NHS staff. Not sure ig it makes a difference but glad to do it.

Ditto.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 27, 2020, 08:27:40 AM

This is interesting and bleak

https://www.esquire.com/uk/life/a31915611/coronavirus-timeline/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 27, 2020, 10:09:34 AM
This is interesting and bleak

https://www.esquire.com/uk/life/a31915611/coronavirus-timeline/

It sounds remarkably upbeat to me. Particularly the Month 18 Recovery section.

The article is assuming that everybody and every country is going to behave in a predictable and reasonable manner.

I feel no such certainty about matters.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 27, 2020, 10:48:59 AM
It sounds remarkably upbeat to me. Particularly the Month 18 Recovery section.

The article is assuming that everybody and every country is going to behave in a predictable and reasonable manner.

I feel no such certainty about matters.

Don't know about upbeat, but if things play out as suggested we would have handled the problem in, more or less, the best way now available. It would be bleak in the sense that it would be terribly boring but so much better than some other possible actions, events and outcomes.

In practice, I think there will be other approaches, in particular we will find and try possible vaccines or anti-virals   much earlier - even if with some risk, and there is some hope that they will work.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 27, 2020, 10:56:26 AM
It sounds remarkably upbeat to me. Particularly the Month 18 Recovery section.

The article is assuming that everybody and every country is going to behave in a predictable and reasonable manner.

I feel no such certainty about matters.
I realise that it's fashionable and macho to be cynical about other people, but people seem to be behaving well so far, apart from an inevitasble few idiots.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 27, 2020, 11:11:06 AM
Ffs!


https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/boris-johnson-eu-ventilator-scheme-and-coronavirus-1-6581207
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 27, 2020, 11:18:31 AM

Real divisions in the EU.

https://www.politico.eu/article/virtual-summit-real-acrimony-eu-leaders-clash-over-corona-bonds/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 27, 2020, 11:19:45 AM
And more ffs!


https://thenantwichnews.co.uk/2020/03/24/nantwich-firm-blasts-government-over-delay-after-offering-5000-ventilators/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 27, 2020, 11:24:39 AM
And now Boris Johnson has cv
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 27, 2020, 11:25:51 AM
I realise that it's fashionable and macho to be cynical about other people, but people seem to be behaving well so far, apart from an inevitasble few idiots.

I'm not being cynical about other people. I'm cynical about our political leaders. Trump being the most visible problem.

But also, whisper it quietly, what is Putin up to while all our attention is on Covid 19:

https://news.sky.com/story/royal-navy-shadows-russian-warships-after-high-levels-of-activity-in-channel-and-north-sea-11963865
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 27, 2020, 11:26:41 AM
Bojo's got the lurgi!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 27, 2020, 11:37:29 AM
Lots of people asking why Johnson got tested with mild symptoms. I bow to no one in my dislike for him. But it seems sensible to test the PM in this situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 27, 2020, 11:39:06 AM
Bojo's got the lurgi!

Hope he isolates - permanently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 27, 2020, 11:43:07 AM
Hope he isolates - permanently.
Then we would have Dominic Raab in his place. As noted in earlier post I really don't like Johnson but joking about him having the virus feels off, particularly given he has a pregnant partner.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 27, 2020, 11:49:47 AM
I hope his partner doesn't get it.

I wouldn't cry any tears if Trump tested positive for the virus and had to be in lock down, away from public office, until the next millennium!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 27, 2020, 11:52:29 AM
Hope he isolates - permanently.
yeah !

like I said earlier , off you go to 10 Downing street Gordo . We all know you're the man for the job  ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 27, 2020, 11:56:08 AM
Apparently Boris is still in charge of running the Government by video conferencing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 27, 2020, 12:03:14 PM
Expect all that cycling ... has helped his CV system stay in reasonable shape ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 27, 2020, 12:07:41 PM
Apparently Boris is still in charge of running the Government by video conferencing.
Not sure if that is the best message. It's a difficult one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 27, 2020, 12:12:35 PM
Not sure if that is the best message. It's a difficult one.
Given that the rest of the country is effectively continuing to work via video conferencing I don't think the optics are bad.

Actually for a while I thought the optics (until a couple of days ago) of the daily press conference with three people not 2 metres apart in front of a packed room of journalists was terrible.

I suspect quite a few of those journalists will be scrambling to get tested now!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 27, 2020, 12:20:36 PM
Of course this means that this hasn't aged well



https://youtu.be/1IM9jd3XCF0
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 27, 2020, 12:23:16 PM
I wonder how many MPs and member of the general public have picked up the virus from Boris, as he insisted on shaking hands with people? :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 27, 2020, 12:25:16 PM
Shake hands with him? I wouldn't piss on him if he was on fire.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 27, 2020, 12:35:25 PM
Boris Johnson has Covid-19. "I've got a nasty headache, and it's making me feel sick", said the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 27, 2020, 12:53:31 PM
I wonder how many MPs and member of the general public have picked up the virus from Boris, as he insisted on shaking hands with people? :o

Did he insist on shaking hands with people?

I'm actually quite surprised more members of the government haven't got it given that Nadine Dorries tested positive a while ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 27, 2020, 01:07:59 PM
Did he insist on shaking hands with people?

I'm actually quite surprised more members of the government haven't got it given that Nadine Dorries tested positive a while ago.
Matt Hancock now as well
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 27, 2020, 01:52:30 PM
This just underlines how much lack of planning and slow reactions seem built into the govt's approach


https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/health/2020/03/government-documents-show-no-planning-ventilators-event-pandemic#click=https:%2F%2Ft.co%2FognVSpUVJ3
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 27, 2020, 01:59:47 PM
This just underlines how much lack of planning and slow reactions seem built into the govt's approach


https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/health/2020/03/government-documents-show-no-planning-ventilators-event-pandemic#click=https:%2F%2Ft.co%2FognVSpUVJ3

It's actually an interesting problem. The FT article I posted yesterday says the government is trying to procure 60,000 ventilators. I doubt if any level of planning would have had the government procure that many, and if they did, where would they store them and wouldn't they need regular inspections  to make sure they remain serviceable?

If we manage to get through this with nobody  in the UK dying through lack of ventilators you could argue that the strategy of the mad scramble to make them now has paid off.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 27, 2020, 02:12:29 PM
It's actually an interesting problem. The FT article I posted yesterday says the government is trying to procure 60,000 ventilators. I doubt if any level of planning would have had the government procure that many, and if they did, where would they store them and wouldn't they need regular inspections  to make sure they remain serviceable?

If we manage to get through this with nobody  in the UK dying through lack of ventilators you could argue that the strategy of the mad scramble to make them now has paid off.
  And yet it took them weeks to start the mad scramble, and even as they scramble they seem bumbling and inept as per this posted earlier.

https://thenantwichnews.co.uk/2020/03/24/nantwich-firm-blasts-government-over-delay-after-offering-5000-ventilators/


The main issue is not the number of ventilators atockpiled, it's that there was no plan about what should be done were a large number needed despite that being part of the scenario.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 27, 2020, 02:23:56 PM
Yep, bad planning is bad planning no matter what the outcome.

It's just incompetence on the part of politicians, advisers and civil servants.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30727-3/fulltext
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 27, 2020, 04:45:34 PM
I have just seen that there is likely to be a world condom shortage as the biggest manufacturer of them is stopping production due to the virus, that is very bad news indeed. :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 27, 2020, 05:12:08 PM
My friend has been put onto a ventilator, while she doesn't have any underlying conditions, it's a severe form of the virus and she is likely to be on the ventilator for weeks. I can't go and see her, I can't meet her husband to give him a hug. Fucking virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 27, 2020, 05:19:41 PM
I am sorry to hear that NS. :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 27, 2020, 06:06:21 PM
One of our nieces and my partners God child have both come down with the virus in the last 24 hours. Both, appear to have mild symptoms at the moment, thankfully.

Sorry to hear about your friend, NS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 27, 2020, 08:26:25 PM

A letter from Italy

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/a-letter-to-the-uk-from-italy-this-is-what-we-know-about-your-future?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 27, 2020, 08:50:53 PM
One of our nieces and my partners God child have both come down with the virus in the last 24 hours. Both, appear to have mild symptoms at the moment, thankfully.

Sorry to hear about your friend, NS.
I just learned a friend of mine, his wife and their eight year old son all had it last week. Nothing like As bad as NS’s friend but he said it was really scary.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 27, 2020, 09:09:29 PM
The official lockdown chart


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-52068546
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 27, 2020, 10:58:00 PM
The Lurgi has reached Home Counties North Mail Centre: there were three people off sick in my section yesterday, and four today, and I had a look at the signing-on sheets in other areas, and there are people off sick in most of them. Otoh, the workload seems to be decreasing, no doubt due to the virus, so if it decreases at the same rate as the staff, we'll be ok. I dare say I'll get it soon: as long as it's a mild-to-moderaste dose, I'll be glad to get it over and done with.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 27, 2020, 11:06:41 PM
Remember when the worst thing we had to worry about was Brexit?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on March 28, 2020, 05:41:06 AM


The way I see it...God must be pleased with humans. We have indeed learnt to care for our weak and elderly. This is a very non animal trait.   We really are evolving beyond our animal nature....!   :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 28, 2020, 06:43:34 AM
One of the things I heard, listening to several hours of info on Five Lilve, was that new 'hospitals' are being set up. The practical question I wonder is: where are they going to get all the several thousand beds from, which they will need? Will they have to physically be made, or are there plenty in storage somewhere, or what?
Stephen Nolan's interview with a doctor in Manchester, dealing with the seriously ill and dying, was a powerful one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 28, 2020, 07:58:38 AM

The way I see it...God must be pleased with humans. We have indeed learnt to care for our weak and elderly. This is a very non animal trait.   
No, it isn't: many animals care for their weak and elderly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 28, 2020, 08:03:16 AM
Apparently You Can Get A Quick Coronavirus Test

If You Have an Underlying Wealth Condition
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 28, 2020, 08:35:52 AM
It will cost one £375 to have a private test. Worth it I suppose if absolutely necessary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 28, 2020, 08:46:03 AM
More evidence of the failure to plan, or rather the decision not to plan because of austerity.


https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/advice-on-protective-gear-for-nhs-staff-was-rejected-owing-to-cost?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 28, 2020, 08:48:13 AM
More evidence of the failure to plan, or rather the decision not to plan because of austerity.


https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/advice-on-protective-gear-for-nhs-staff-was-rejected-owing-to-cost?__twitter_impression=true

Indeed as one medic pointed out: Nice of you to clap, but if you voted Tory please don't bother.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on March 28, 2020, 01:15:26 PM

The way I see it...God must be pleased with humans. We have indeed learnt to care for our weak and elderly. This is a very non animal trait.   We really are evolving beyond our animal nature....!   :)

You need to update your evidence about animals Sriram, indecently we're animals too, there's a tremendous amount of empathy given between animals, dogs are a an exceptional example of an empathetic animal behaviour.

What's happened with your regular science magazine don't you take it anymore, the magazine must have covered examples of animal empathy from time to time, like any worthwhile science magazine would?

Regards, ippy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on March 28, 2020, 01:48:49 PM

In evolution there are no discrete cut off points.  There is usually an overlap of qualities from one species to another.  Some animals have human like qualities and some humans have animal like qualities.  Its a question of how much. 

The further we move from animal like qualities...the nearer we move to what we normally call 'divine' qualities. This is spiritual evolution.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 28, 2020, 02:00:22 PM
In evolution there are no discrete cut off points.  There is usually an overlap of qualities from one species to another.  Some animals have human like qualities and some humans have animal like qualities.  Its a question of how much. 

The further we move from animal like qualities...the nearer we move to what we normally call 'divine' qualities. This is spiritual evolution.
what, you mean like starting off on pints then ending up on whiskys ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 28, 2020, 02:21:14 PM
Over 1000 people have now died of the virus in the UK. :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 28, 2020, 02:58:39 PM
The chief medical officer thinks that 20,000 deaths in the UK is the least we can hope for ultimately.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on March 28, 2020, 04:04:37 PM
Go to BBC Sounds and listen to More or Less - Coronavirus Special (Radio 4 Wednesday 09.00).

The programme looks at the numbers surrounding the outbreak. One of the UK's most respected statisticians, Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, puts the risks of the disease into perspective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 28, 2020, 04:39:00 PM
Go to BBC Sounds and listen to More or Less - Coronavirus Special (Radio 4 Wednesday 09.00).

The programme looks at the numbers surrounding the outbreak. One of the UK's most respected statisticians, Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, puts the risks of the disease into perspective.

I heard the programme last week, he was excellent as he usually is, however not sure what you mean by "into perspective" - I can't recall that he said we should be doing anything different from the current advice.
 
Was quite pleased to see the figures he had settled on were the same as mine :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on March 28, 2020, 04:51:41 PM
In evolution there are no discrete cut off points.  There is usually an overlap of qualities from one species to another.  Some animals have human like qualities and some humans have animal like qualities.  Its a question of how much. 

The further we move from animal like qualities...the nearer we move to what we normally call 'divine' qualities. This is spiritual evolution.

Looks like we're going back to the equivalent of caged bird picking out a card with your future written on it again Sriram, you must know this can be a bit of fun as a novelty but it is a bit daft if you really believe any of this fantasy stuff.

All of us human animals and all of the rest of life wherever you find it are evidence of the process of evolution, have a read up on the subject, it looks to me as though it's something you should be doing and need to be doing.

ippy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 28, 2020, 04:54:25 PM
In evolution there are no discrete cut off points.  There is usually an overlap of qualities from one species to another.  Some animals have human like qualities and some humans have animal like qualities.  Its a question of how much. 

The further we move from animal like qualities...the nearer we move to what we normally call 'divine' qualities. This is spiritual evolution.

Any explanation for Modi's decisions in India - he seems to creating chaos, that can only result in an increase in cases and associated deaths? The whole idea is to help people stay apart and NOT move around!

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SweetPea on March 28, 2020, 05:07:22 PM
Over 1000 people have now died of the virus in the UK. :o

Professor of virology, John Oxford said three weeks ago that 5,000 people had died from influenza in the UK already this winter gone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 28, 2020, 05:21:38 PM
Professor of virology, John Oxford said three weeks ago that 5,000 people had died from influenza in the UK already this winter gone.

5000 UK deaths from flu seems fairly low given that we are now at the end of the flu season. It will be good if we can keep covid deaths down at a similar level - but to do that we need to stop it spreading as no-one, as far as we know, has immunity whereas most people vulnerable to flu have been vaccinated.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 28, 2020, 05:27:09 PM
Professor of virology, John Oxford said three weeks ago that 5,000 people had died from influenza in the UK already this winter gone.
Which coronavirus will overtake some time in the middle of the week after next if the current doubling rate of every four days remains the same.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 28, 2020, 06:22:56 PM
Not sure I can take seriously a God who sends a plague to kill people that he supposedly loves. (And for Steveh I am only replying to Spuds specific assertion that God may have sent the virus - he said it not me).

Sounds as usual that God is a reflection of the posters views rather than any serious theological thought taking place.
I was 'just wondering' - and obviously was wrong, so I feel I should apologize.
Having reflected a bit, God always sent prophets to warn of judgment. I don't know of any prophecies of this virus, so should not claim that God sent it. It is a natural disaster though, a consequence of the Fall. Like in Luke 13:1-5, it warns us that we could die at any time and so should make sure we are ready.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 28, 2020, 06:26:19 PM
5000 UK deaths from flu seems fairly low given that we are now at the end of the flu season. It will be good if we can keep covid deaths down at a similar level - but to do that we need to stop it spreading as no-one, as far as we know, has immunity whereas most people vulnerable to flu have been vaccinated.
Very good point - I had been wondering why such a fuss isn't made for a flu epidemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 28, 2020, 06:30:46 PM
Or we can develop cleaner technologies that reduce emissions by 14% or more which would have the same or greater effect without massively impacting on our mental/physical health and our economy.
But to get the effect we see on the satellite images, with such a drastic drop in the pollution, do you really think that is achievable through technology?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 29, 2020, 08:31:27 AM
I was 'just wondering' - and obviously was wrong, so I feel I should apologize.
Having reflected a bit, God always sent prophets to warn of judgment. I don't know of any prophecies of this virus, so should not claim that God sent it. It is a natural disaster though, a consequence of the Fall. Like in Luke 13:1-5, it warns us that we could die at any time and so should make sure we are ready.

I am sure the crazy end time nutters will be able to point a verse in that daft book of Revelation referring to Covid-19! ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on March 29, 2020, 09:48:50 AM


Religion teaches humility and respect for the natural order. Recognition of ones tiny place in the totality.  That is what has been missing in recent decades/centuries.

The coronavirus will teach us some humility and respect for nature.  God is just a word for all those invisible and unknown factors that influence us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 29, 2020, 10:19:19 AM
I have walked up and down from wall to wall and beside the work top - one lap = 25 steps, including turning, and have used my stretch strip for some arm exercises and there is still a long, extra long because of clocks forward,  day ahead... …
Bright sunshine yet again, but blowing a gale and again no chance of going out
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 29, 2020, 10:25:27 AM
Clocks forward makes the day shorter, not longer, you'll be glad to hear.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 29, 2020, 10:46:27 AM
Clocks forward makes the day shorter, not longer, you'll be glad to hear.

One hour's less lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 29, 2020, 11:00:43 AM

Religion teaches humility and respect for the natural order. Recognition of ones tiny place in the totality.  That is what has been missing in recent decades/centuries.

The coronavirus will teach us some humility and respect for nature.  God is just a word for all those invisible and unknown factors that influence us.
sri

thanks for telling me that because I wasn't aware of that before FFS
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 29, 2020, 11:38:46 AM
Clocks forward makes the day shorter, not longer, you'll be glad to hear.
Well, it's going to feel longer! I got up at today's time, but am working on yesterday's!! At the moment I'm waiting, on an 0800 number, to register for a shopping service.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on March 29, 2020, 12:16:27 PM
Religion teaches hum
ility and respect for the natural order. Recognition of ones tiny place in the totality.  That is what has been missing in recent decades/centuries.




The coronavirus will teach us some humility and respect for nature.  God is just a word for all those invisible and unknown factors that influence us.

First, how does religion teach any of us humility and respect for your ideas about the natural order when we see that there is no sound evidential reason to take any form of religion seriously and it seems that the scientists and the authorities have all combined to help us all of out of the present viral problem plus the opera singing on the balconies in Italy, everybody here in the UK opening their doors cheering and clapping our health services heroic efforts, performed with all of the spirit and all of the HUMILITY necessary to perform the task, we virtually to a person were recognising their fight with our common world wide enemy

Purely out of interest Sriram, these invisible and unknown factors that influence us, if these are actually unknown factors how can anyone know about them.

You should admit that you've written and then posted a bit of a strange contradictory statement I'm aware that you're not one of the odd few posters we get on this forum from time to time, those that are more obviously choosing to live on the borders of rationality but it wouldn't be a bad idea on your part to post a clarification about this post of yours.

I'm not normally a sweary type person but on this occasion as for needing religion to teach us non-religious believing people or anyone else Fu,,,,g Humility, on this one occasion Sriram Fu,, off.

ippy.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on March 29, 2020, 12:58:49 PM
First, how does religion teach any of us humility and respect for your ideas about the natural order when we see that there is no sound evidential reason to take any form of religion seriously and it seems that the scientists and the authorities have all combined to help us all of out of the present viral problem plus the opera singing on the balconies in Italy, everybody here in the UK opening their doors cheering and clapping our health services heroic efforts, performed with all of the spirit and all of the HUMILITY necessary to perform the task, we virtually to a person were recognising their fight with our common world wide enemy

Purely out of interest Sriram, these invisible and unknown factors that influence us, if these are actually unknown factors how can anyone know about them.

You should admit that you've written and then posted a bit of a strange contradictory statement I'm aware that you're not one of the odd few posters we get on this forum from time to time, those that are more obviously choosing to live on the borders of rationality but it wouldn't be a bad idea on your part to post a clarification about this post of yours.

I'm not normally a sweary type person but on this occasion as for needing religion to teach us non-religious believing people or anyone else Fu,,,,g Humility, on this one occasion Sriram Fu,, off.

ippy.

:D

I don't want to derail this thread any further...but since this IS a  Religion board I thought I should post some relevant aspects about religion on this thread.

We have an animal nature in us that is primarily selfish and self preservative.  But as we humans have evolved, our social  and universal aspects have taken precedence over our personal self preservation.   This is the way we have evolved. I consider this a spiritual growth...an inner development.

Religion has been at the fore front to help us in this growth and to ensure that we develop this selfless part of our nature more and more and reduce our selfish nature. Christian missionaries are examples of this selfless service.

Without religion we would not have today evolved to a stage where common people are able to selflessly put themselves at risk just to save some elderly people.  We have to admire and emulate such people certainly....but I am talking about recognizing the spiritual development that has taken place in society over the centuries, that has made this situation possible.

https://tsriramrao.wordpress.com/2017/02/19/religions-have-suceeded/

Cheers.

Sriram
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 29, 2020, 01:26:38 PM
:D

I don't want to derail this thread any further...but since this IS a  Religion board I thought I should post some relevant aspects about religion on this thread.
...

That discussion clearly doesn't add any value to this thread ... it could be moved elsewhere?

btw. I notice that Modi has now apologized for the way he imposed the lockdown. India has hundreds of thousands of excellent scientists, engineers, thinkers and communicators. Are they all spending their time on their spiritual evolution instead of the welfare of the people?
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 29, 2020, 01:30:55 PM
wrt. planning and preparedness this DT article on the 2016 exercise is a must read - but note it is fire-walled, it might be possible to read with a one article a week option.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/exclusive-ministers-warned-nhs-could-not-cope-pandemic-three/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 29, 2020, 03:06:48 PM
You probably know this, COVID-19 stands for CO 'corona' VI ;virus' D 'disease' 19, 2019 the first time the mutation was discovered.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sassy on March 30, 2020, 04:31:53 AM
Praying doesn’t work. Well, it might help the mental state of the person doing the praying but nothing else.

Coronavirus is a natural phenomenon. Your god didn’t do it. Your god won’t help us get out of this.

And you know this , WHY?  You can make decisions like the above. But when it comes to backing them up you have no evidence either.  I would have thought positive better than negative.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sassy on March 30, 2020, 04:39:29 AM
If god exists most of the time it appears to stick two fingers up at those who pray for healing, maybe it enjoys human suffering.

I had a stroke in 2002 my husband and children were with me and when I went to different health departments the second the hospital I was taken into ICU and drips stuck in my hand and medication given and x'rays taken. Whilst in the ICU I spoke to God about what I believed his plan was for me and my life and could not understand what and why this was happening. My symptoms went away and the doctors and others asked me if I had ever took drugs. Just weeks before been put on a spray for angina and other medication. The head doctor came to see me the next day and he did all the tests himself including tread mill and heart scan whilst on tread mill. He took me off all medication and told me to go home and just lose a little weight/ They could not understand how over night my symptoms had cleared and even the angina had gone. God does heal you have not the humility to accept he does or can because then you would have to admit you were wrong and blaming him for what humans had done.   Truth must be a the thing we seek and that does not mean accepting our own beliefs because we are happy with them. Real faith comes from truth but you need to be able to seek and want it. It is the only reason you have no faith in God...it is because truth is not something you seek. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sassy on March 30, 2020, 04:42:43 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52043767

This is absolutely bonkers - we don't need a new, untested ventilator (which even if it works NHS won't be experienced in operating and will need to be trained) - what we need are huge numbers of tried and tested designs. And if Dyson have a facility that can make thousands of ventilators they should make it available to produce existing designs, not some new experimental one.

Can you not give the medical profession or medical engineers the intelligence and abilities they are born with and have learned over the years spent in medical training. Don't cars work in the same way though different models. Whatever the car it takes a fuel and knowledge how to use. I can drive the different types of car having learned in a manuel. Where do you think the idea for a first respirator came from?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sassy on March 30, 2020, 04:44:02 AM
A friend who is a nurse has just been moved into Intensive Therapy Unit with suspected coronavirus. Expected to be put on a ventilator this afternoon.
Praying they survive. x
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 30, 2020, 09:47:35 AM
The astrophysicist, the magnets and the virus


https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/30/astrophysicist-gets-magnets-stuck-up-nose-while-inventing-coronavirus-device
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 30, 2020, 09:52:36 AM
And you know this , WHY?  You can make decisions like the above. But when it comes to backing them up you have no evidence either.  I would have thought positive better than negative.

I have nothing against you praying if you like, but I strongly advise you to follow the advice of medical professionals. Don't just trust your god to get you through this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 30, 2020, 10:01:46 AM
The astrophysicist, the magnets and the virus


https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/30/astrophysicist-gets-magnets-stuck-up-nose-while-inventing-coronavirus-device
Well, it makes a change from bottles up the arse...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 30, 2020, 10:41:41 AM
Cummings now self isolating:

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/dominic-cummings-self-isolating-after-experiencing-coronavirus_uk_5e7e2c51c5b6cb9dc19f4d75?ncid=fcbklnkukhpmg00000008&fbclid=IwAR0V-1HfoTfJ6TbkIYhkfr17LygdQ3tLaWq8ykGejfPyPDEiX_neSeBOoGE

I can't trust myself to type anything further.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 30, 2020, 10:51:01 AM
My daughter-in-law has just phoned me to say that she has managed to get nearly all of the shopping I wanted. That is so very, very kind of her, as she had her own shopping to do as well. My son will bring it later and they live an hour away. That is such a relief, as I was beginning to wonder how the local councillor was going to organise volunteers and arrange for one of them to do it for me. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 30, 2020, 11:07:47 AM
Cummings now self isolating:

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/dominic-cummings-self-isolating-after-experiencing-coronavirus_uk_5e7e2c51c5b6cb9dc19f4d75?ncid=fcbklnkukhpmg00000008&fbclid=IwAR0V-1HfoTfJ6TbkIYhkfr17LygdQ3tLaWq8ykGejfPyPDEiX_neSeBOoGE

I can't trust myself to type anything further.

I was going to write something, but, on reflection, it  would be a bit mean spirited.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 30, 2020, 11:10:20 AM
Talking of being mean spirited, I get the impression that some people in positions of authority are somewhat gleeful about their new powers to suck all the joy out of our lives.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52090441

There is no possible reason for banning the sale of Easter eggs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 30, 2020, 11:24:30 AM
Waiting in a social distancing line this morning on the other side of the shopping centre to be allowed into Tesco was definitely NOT my idea of fun to put it mildly. The store isn't opening until 8am now. You can't get your groceries delivered unless you are disabled in some way. Fortunately Tesco was well stocked, they even had some teeny, tiny bottles of hand gel, but they were a £1 each,  there were plenty of loo rolls. I see petrol has tumbled down in price £1-03.99 per litre. It  was £1-15.99 when I filled up last week, I wish I had waited!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 30, 2020, 11:26:54 AM
Waiting in a social distancing line this morning on the other side of the shopping centre to be allowed into Tesco was definitely NOT my idea of fun to put it mildly.
According to the people I know who have had COVID 19, that's no fun either.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 30, 2020, 11:34:06 AM
According to the people I know who have had COVID 19, that's no fun either.

Of course we must social distance, I am not objecting to the fact we have to do it, I was just saying it isn't my favourite way of doing my shopping, especially as there was a very cool breeze today. But I was grateful it wasn't raining.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 30, 2020, 11:48:40 AM
Quote
You can't get your groceries delivered unless you are disabled in some way.

Don't quite know how I managed it but clicked on Sainsbury's site this morning and got a delivery slot tomorrow.

Happy chappy. Its the little things!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 30, 2020, 12:11:52 PM
Don't quite know how I managed it but clicked on Sainsbury's site this morning and got a delivery slot tomorrow.

Happy chappy. Its the little things!

Lucky you. Our vicar daughter always had Tesco deliver her weekly order, but they have stopped doing so now as she isn't in need.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on March 30, 2020, 02:12:11 PM
:D

I don't want to derail this thread any further...but since this IS a  Religion board I thought I should post some relevant aspects about religion on this thread.

We have an animal nature in us that is primarily selfish and self preservative.  But as we humans have evolved, our social  and universal aspects have taken precedence over our personal self preservation.   This is the way we have evolved. I consider this a spiritual growth...an inner development.

Religion has been at the fore front to help us in this growth and to ensure that we develop this selfless part of our nature more and more and reduce our selfish nature. Christian missionaries are examples of this selfless service.

Without religion we would not have today evolved to a stage where common people are able to selflessly put themselves at risk just to save some elderly people.  We have to admire and emulate such people certainly....but I am talking about recognizing the spiritual development that has taken place in society over the centuries, that has made this situation possible.

https://tsriramrao.wordpress.com/2017/02/19/religions-have-suceeded/

Cheers.

Sriram

I look forward to future exchanges with your good self after you've brought yourself up to date, and understanding it, with the latest info about evolution but until then I'll stick with the last four lines of my previous post to you directly, it's the arrogance of your assertions about religion, back to the last word of my previous post.

Stuff your link where the sun doesn't shine!!

ippy
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on March 30, 2020, 04:49:42 PM


:D

Your getting angry doesn't change anything ippy!  ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on March 30, 2020, 05:17:41 PM

:D

Your getting angry doesn't change anything ippy!  ::)

You are right Sriram, it doesn't change anything!

ippy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 30, 2020, 05:22:10 PM
I still don't for the life of me understand why here in Finland we are only testing at most about 1,500 a day. The evidence shows that the best way to slow the spread of the virus is test, test, test then follow up. We're not a poor country, why can't we test all suspected cases? I dispair and think the people making the decisions know fuck all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on March 30, 2020, 06:30:17 PM
https://youtu.be/pvEWOBAzHf4

do as you're told
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 30, 2020, 08:14:43 PM
From the BBC live feed


'Tributes for 108-year-old woman who died of coronavirus in UK

Tributes have been paid to a 108-year-old woman who lived through the Spanish flu pandemic but has died after contracting coronavirus.

Hilda Churchill died at Kenyon Lodge care home in Salford, Greater Manchester, on Saturday, one day before her 109th birthday.

Her grandson Will Hadcroft said the "kind-hearted matriarch of the family" would be "greatly missed".

She had four children, 11 grandchildren, 12 great-grandchildren and three great-great-grandchildren

Ms Churchill's one-year-old sister was one of 50 million people killed by the Spanish flu from 1918 to 1920.'

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 30, 2020, 09:08:41 PM
And also from the BBC live feed - feckin hell!


'More than 47 million Americans could lose their jobs in the next three months, pushing the US unemployment rate above 32%.

That’s according to a recent analysis by the Federal Reserve, which describes it as a “back-of-the-envelope” calculation.

However, the heavy economic cost is already clear, with a record 3.28 million Americans filing for unemployment last week.

Those numbers are expected to rise. In just one example, US department store Macy’s on Monday, said it had placed most of its 130,000 workers on unpaid leave, citing the loss of “the majority of our sales”. It said it would continue to pay for staff health insurance until the end of May.'

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 30, 2020, 09:26:44 PM
And also from the BBC live feed - feckin hell!


'More than 47 million Americans could lose their jobs in the next three months, pushing the US unemployment rate above 32%.

That’s according to a recent analysis by the Federal Reserve, which describes it as a “back-of-the-envelope” calculation.

However, the heavy economic cost is already clear, with a record 3.28 million Americans filing for unemployment last week.

Those numbers are expected to rise. In just one example, US department store Macy’s on Monday, said it had placed most of its 130,000 workers on unpaid leave, citing the loss of “the majority of our sales”. It said it would continue to pay for staff health insurance until the end of May.'
That would be the equivalent of about nine million in Britain. It doesn’t seem beyond the bounds of possibility.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 30, 2020, 09:42:52 PM
Was talking to my mother and she mentioned that she didn't have any playing cards so I went to Amazon to order some. I was offered free delivery for Friday to Tuesday, £49.99 for 2 day delivery, and £99.99 for one day delivery.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 30, 2020, 10:16:11 PM
And more from the BBC feed

'Las Vegas car park turned into 'homeless shelter'

People have criticised Las Vegas authorities for turning a car park into an outdoor sleeping area for homeless people.

Photos of people lying on the ground in painted white boxes - one person per space - have gone viral on social media, with some users questioning why the homeless people weren't put up in the city's hotels, which have been closed.

But officials have praised the makeshift sleeping area. Lisa Morris Hibbler, chief community services officer for the city of Las Vegas, told local CBS-affiliate 8 News Now that the boxes were "spaced so that they're social distancing".

According to US media, the area was set up as a last-minute makeshift area for the city's homeless community after someone in one of the main shelters tested positive for coronavirus.

Social embed from twitter

New York Post

✔@nypost

Las Vegas parking lot turned into homeless shelter during coronavirus crisis https://trib.al/hNzyVBH '


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 30, 2020, 10:43:01 PM
I posted on Facebook about the delivery gouging prices of Amazon and a friend offered to drop off a pack of cards for my mother. And when I said that it was ok but they were ordered  but it was a very kind offer, she replied that being kind was not just for quarantine. And I agree, we should look when we get by this to do more for those who are vulnerable, by the govt, by the private sector and by us. The whatsapp groups who are looking after people, the remote virtual chats. We need to make sure that people can access the internet and have support to do so. The Labour policy of free internet for all looks like a winner to me but that's only the start.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 31, 2020, 07:05:45 AM
I posted on Facebook about the delivery gouging prices of Amazon and a friend offered to drop off a pack of cards for my mother. And when I said that it was ok but they were ordered  but it was a very kind offer, she replied that being kind was not just for quarantine. And I agree, we should look when we get by this to do more for those who are vulnerable, by the govt, by the private sector and by us. The whatsapp groups who are looking after people, the remote virtual chats. We need to make sure that people can access the internet and have support to do so. The Labour policy of free internet for all looks like a winner to me but that's only the start.
Good idea, but certainly would not be taken up by many older people for whom the worry of having to learn how to use it would be far more stressful.

I have been thinking about plaing cards and intend to ring the RNIB to see if there is a set I could use. I've done a quick search, but wonder whether the size of the cards with a sufficiently large number might be too big to hold!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on March 31, 2020, 08:09:20 AM
Good idea, but certainly would not be taken up by many older people for whom the worry of having to learn how to use it would be far more stressful.

Do you really believe this, SD?

Home computing has been around since the 1980s and general internet use since the 1990s. People now in their eighties have been using IT for more than 30 years. I think that your view might be seen by many as rather patronising. I know that you are in this age bracket and I'm not much younger than you ... and we both cope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 31, 2020, 08:38:50 AM
Most of the older people I know are familiar with computers including those in their 80s and some in their 90s.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 31, 2020, 11:12:51 AM
Most of the older people I know are familiar with computers including those in their 80s and some in their 90s.
Some are but there are plenty who aren't - such as my mother-in-law (89) who never got to grips with a traditional mobile phone let alone a computer.

But the point is that regardless of the fact that some (maybe most) older people are silver surfer, we need to take care of those that aren't, effectively not disadvantaging or disenfranchising them for not being computer literate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 31, 2020, 11:25:40 AM
The first virus death has been reported in my home island of Guernsey, they were in their 80s.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 31, 2020, 11:53:52 AM
I heard on the news earlier today that a 108-year old, one day before hher 109th birthday, has died of the virus.  What a terrible way to go.

I have walked outside today - nearly 25 minutes up and down the part of the Close I live in that is clear and spacious. One 'lap' is about 165 steps and I did it 8 times .
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 31, 2020, 01:16:10 PM
Some are but there are plenty who aren't - such as my mother-in-law (89) who never got to grips with a traditional mobile phone let alone a computer.
But the point is that regardless of the fact that some (maybe most) older people are silver surfer, we need to take care of those that aren't, effectively not disadvantaging or disenfranchising them for not being computer literate.
In part my original comment on this was triggered by my mother having similar problems with a mobile, and is the same age 89. I think there are ways that we could get round that in future by better planning and use of devices. I think a lot of effort is put in to making things simpler for those already computer literate,and for those starting out. Even though I have been working with and on computers for nearly 40 years, there is still a quiet dread when I need to get or am given a new operating system.


And I agree it's more about how we can organise society to make the support of all people easier. The reaction that we have had show the limits of support when the normal rules for society are broken, and for many that support is insufficient at normal times. I don't see the idea of Not Just During Quarantine as restricted to about technology  though that has a part, or about how we deal with extreme situations, rather it's about a society that through the strength of its links and support is more robust when extremes come along.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 31, 2020, 03:50:21 PM
A different take from Randall Munroe.

https://xkcd.com/2287/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 31, 2020, 06:10:31 PM
I for one welcome our new goat overlords


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52103967?fbclid=IwAR2xBrvpxZcsf0XPkvgJ-gR59fezsdCbeAiGA9ex9k3M1Ryay5lMMXNjAY4
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 31, 2020, 06:27:57 PM
Ridiculous that calling out failings might lead to the sack here

https://www.union-news.co.uk/gma-stands-with-nhs-workers-face-te-sack-for-blowing-the-whistle-on-governments-coronavirus-failings/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 31, 2020, 08:28:03 PM
Yet again Toby Young being a complete and utter Tory twat:

https://www.thecanary.co/trending/2020/03/31/as-most-people-fight-to-save-lives-some-on-the-right-are-showing-truly-barbaric-priorities/?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 31, 2020, 08:34:12 PM
In order to save the economy Sweden is taking the herd immunity approach, even though we're at least a year away from a vaccine. If I was a Swede I'd be slightly worried.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 31, 2020, 09:53:59 PM
Nice to see the spirit of altruism is alive and well in Florida - not.

From the BBC live blog.

Quote
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has said there is no reason Holland America cruise ships with sick passengers on board should dock in Florida.

The MS Zaandam and MS Rotterdam have passed through the Panama Canal and are heading towards Fort Lauderdale. According to the Associated Press, there are over 300 US citizens on the ships.

"It's just a convenient place," he told reporters. "The problem is that takes resources away from the people in South Florida, and yes we do have available beds, but I don't want it to be a situation where those beds could have gone to Floridians."
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on April 01, 2020, 08:42:09 AM
The focus now appears to be on testing for the virus and the comparison between the testing rates in Germany and the UK.

I think that this comparison highlights a major strategic problem at the heart of the British government system: its very high level of centralisation and of central government control. The UK system encourages central government to try to micro-manage  every situation. We see this in "local government" where local authorities have very few powers but a very large number of imposed duties. And since Kenneth Baker, education has become more and more centrally controlled.

Apparently, there are many laboratories in the UK which could have quickly introduced virus testing and we would now be reaping the benefits of the data being gathered. HM government, however, has other ideas: a huge centralised facility in Milton Keynes. By the time it gets on stream the total situation may have greatly deteriorated - the nation let down by its myopic, incompetent government.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 01, 2020, 08:53:05 AM
In order to save the economy Sweden is taking the herd immunity approach, even though we're at least a year away from a vaccine. If I was a Swede I'd be slightly worried.
If I lived in a country that shares a land border with Sweden, I'd be slightly worried too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 01, 2020, 08:56:40 AM
I have been watching Jenrick being interviewed on TV this morning, I think he needs help with a couple of phrases he used repeatedly:

ramping up (production/testing) - do fuck all, but say we are doing it in an effort to fool the public.

International comparisons are not useful (particularly with Germany) - we've not acted fast enough, but please don't point out that some other countries actually give a fuck about their population.

(apologies to those who don't like swearing, but really with these sleazy uncaring fuckwits in charge there isn't an option).

This government wouldn't only sell their Grandmothers down the river, they'd take out a loan on them and agree to death of said grandmothers as a reasonable price to pay for defaulting on payment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 01, 2020, 09:37:39 AM
If I lived in a country that shares a land border with Sweden, I'd be slightly worried too.

Well, yes. Fortunately, for the time being at least, the border is closed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 01, 2020, 10:55:56 AM

I don't agree with the article but I think the feeling is similar to what I am thinking about when I write Not Just During Quarantine.

https://theconversation.com/what-will-the-world-be-like-after-coronavirus-four-possible-futures-134085?fbclid=IwAR0nMaEQCiNZr2C0cJm3I6JI8lA28fbYmgTjov2O2a3s61zA2ki2xEelEyk
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 01, 2020, 11:17:18 AM
I have been watching Jenrick being interviewed on TV this morning, I think he needs help with a couple of phrases he used repeatedly:

ramping up (production/testing) - do fuck all, but say we are doing it in an effort to fool the public.

International comparisons are not useful (particularly with Germany) - we've not acted fast enough, but please don't point out that some other countries actually give a fuck about their population.

(apologies to those who don't like swearing, but really with these sleazy uncaring fuckwits in charge there isn't an option).

This government wouldn't only sell their Grandmothers down the river, they'd take out a loan on them and agree to death of said grandmothers as a reasonable price to pay for defaulting on payment.
Trent,

get a grip man, you sound like a whining  whipped pup
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 01, 2020, 11:22:11 AM
I don't agree with the article but I think the feeling is similar to what I am thinking about when I write Not Just During Quarantine.

https://theconversation.com/what-will-the-world-be-like-after-coronavirus-four-possible-futures-134085?fbclid=IwAR0nMaEQCiNZr2C0cJm3I6JI8lA28fbYmgTjov2O2a3s61zA2ki2xEelEyk
sounds to me that the author of the piece might have to get a 'proper job' when this is over !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 01, 2020, 11:26:39 AM
sounds to me that the author of the piece might have to get a 'proper job' when this is over !
We all might
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 01, 2020, 11:29:40 AM
When the virus crisis is eventually over, I suspect the world might be very different to the way it was before.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 01, 2020, 11:34:52 AM
When the virus crisis is eventually over, I suspect the world might be very different to the way it was before.
"different from", not "different to".
I agree: for one thing, the renationalisation of the railways is likely to become permanent, and for another, they won't dare continue underfunding the NHS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 01, 2020, 11:36:14 AM
We all might
but I'm guessing the thought of that to the author is worse than the virus its self . :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 01, 2020, 11:44:13 AM
"different from", not "different to".
I agree: for one thing, the renationalisation of the railways is likely to become permanent, and for another, they won't dare continue underfunding the NHS.
Hurcs

at least she didn't say 'different than'  which is what the Merkins say! ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 01, 2020, 12:07:54 PM
Hurcs

at least she didn't say 'different than'  which is what the Merkins say! ::)
;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 01, 2020, 12:22:30 PM
I have been watching Jenrick being interviewed on TV this morning, I think he needs help with a couple of phrases he used repeatedly:

ramping up (production/testing) - do fuck all, but say we are doing it in an effort to fool the public.

International comparisons are not useful (particularly with Germany) - we've not acted fast enough, but please don't point out that some other countries actually give a fuck about their population.

(apologies to those who don't like swearing, but really with these sleazy uncaring fuckwits in charge there isn't an option).

This government wouldn't only sell their Grandmothers down the river, they'd take out a loan on them and agree to death of said grandmothers as a reasonable price to pay for defaulting on payment.

"Every nation gets the government it deserves" - Joseph de Maistre

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-31/robert-peston-is-gove-right-that-there-is-a-shortage-of-test-kit-ingredients/

Quote

Well I've just talked to the Chemical Industries Association, which represents the UK's very substantial chemicals industry.

It has contacted its members, and they've said there is no shortage of the relevant reagents.

So the Association has now been in touch with Mr Gove’s office to find out what he means, because it is stumped.

The Association also points out there was an industry chat with a business minister on Tuesday, who made no attempt to find out if there was a supply problem for the vital ingredients of Covid-19 testing kits.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 01, 2020, 12:26:32 PM
Trent,

get a grip man, you sound like a whining  whipped pup

Sure will if I ever get close enough to someone's neck.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 01, 2020, 12:31:10 PM
Sure will if I ever get close enough to someone's neck.
:D :D :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 01, 2020, 12:34:53 PM
"different from", not "different to".
I agree: for one thing, the renationalisation of the railways is likely to become permanent, and for another, they won't dare continue underfunding the NHS.
If we have a huge rise in unemployment, there may well be no choice  in what we fund. Thge idea that we'll turn into some socialist nirvana is laughable
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 01, 2020, 12:52:03 PM
"different from", not "different to".
I don't think "different to" is necessarily wrong.

Quote
the renationalisation of the railways is likely to become permanent
What renationalisation?

Quote
, and for another, they won't dare continue underfunding the NHS.
The NHS will always be underfunded. It's the nature of healthcare - and our ageing population. Every government since the war pretty much has increased funding in real terms and yet it is in financial crisis because the cost of healthcare goes up and the number of people needing it goes up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 01, 2020, 12:57:25 PM
If we have a huge rise in unemployment, there may well be no choice  in what we fund. Thge idea that we'll turn into some socialist nirvana is laughable

Just the measures required to stop people from starving to death during the crisis are likely to hugely increase the deficit, especially if it goes on longer than a few weeks. Not only is the government having to pay out but tax receipts are crashing. I would expect the government to try to slash the NHS to the bone even though it will be hugely unpopular.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 01, 2020, 03:15:01 PM
I don't know about other parts of the UK but around here people are putting soft toys like teddy bears in their windows to try to cheer kids up.

In ours as well as my rainbow artwork I have put a couple of teddies and my soft toy dinosaur. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 01, 2020, 03:38:09 PM
I don't know about other parts of the UK but around here people are putting soft toys like teddy bears in their windows to try to cheer kids up.

In ours as well as my rainbow artwork I have put a couple of teddies and my soft toy dinosaur.
I've put a sign in my window it says ;

KEEP THE F*CK OUT
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 01, 2020, 04:02:47 PM
I've put a sign in my window it says ;

KEEP THE F*CK OUT

I hope you are joking! >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 01, 2020, 04:12:35 PM
I hope you are joking! >:(
It is only necessary for me to know if I am or not!  8)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 01, 2020, 04:13:43 PM
In order to save the economy Sweden is taking the herd immunity approach, even though we're at least a year away from a vaccine. If I was a Swede I'd be slightly worried.

It seems Sweden is doing a little bit of a u-turn now by introducing more restrictions. On Sunday they had over 100 deaths and today almost 60. Just to put things into perspective, Sweden has roughly two times the population of Finland and more-or-less the same testing criteria, but they have over three times as many confirmed cases (4,947) and almost 15 times more deaths (239).

I was pleased to hear that our testing capacity is to be doubled over the next two weeks and after that increased by another half.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 01, 2020, 05:16:33 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52117814

A GP's surgery has apologised for sending out letters to patients with life limiting conditions asking them to fill in a DNR form!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 01, 2020, 08:27:51 PM
I don't agree with the article but I think the feeling is similar to what I am thinking about when I write Not Just During Quarantine.

https://theconversation.com/what-will-the-world-be-like-after-coronavirus-four-possible-futures-134085?fbclid=IwAR0nMaEQCiNZr2C0cJm3I6JI8lA28fbYmgTjov2O2a3s61zA2ki2xEelEyk

R4 Fallout: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000gztl

Panel discussion programme considering similar issues.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on April 01, 2020, 09:09:58 PM
I don't know about other parts of the UK but around here people are putting soft toys like teddy bears in their windows to try to cheer kids up.

In ours as well as my rainbow artwork I have put a couple of teddies and my soft toy dinosaur.

Do kids go out at the moment? I suppose some do, short daily exercise. It's a nice idea Littleroses.

I'd have liked being at home when I was a young child, endless holiday. I had my sister and my cousin's garden backed on to ours, we went over the fence all the time.

Working from home is OK, I only go out to deliver stuff to and sometimes pick up from, my in-laws, uncle and aunt's garages, and wave to them. My sister & daughter do the same. It's all weird & worrying though, collective gloom.

Walter i don't blame you for your sign :-). Hope you are OK & safe in the  camper.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on April 01, 2020, 09:51:45 PM
If we have a huge rise in unemployment, there may well be no choice  in what we fund. Thge idea that we'll turn into some socialist nirvana is laughable

We will be funding the national debt.

A socialist nirvana is indeed laughable. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on April 01, 2020, 10:48:06 PM
An overview of the testing fiasco.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/absolutely-wrong-how-uk-coronavirus-test-strategy-unravelled
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 01, 2020, 11:42:57 PM
Do kids go out at the moment? I suppose some do, short daily exercise. It's a nice idea Littleroses.

I'd have liked being at home when I was a young child, endless holiday. I had my sister and my cousin's garden backed on to ours, we went over the fence all the time.

Working from home is OK, I only go out to deliver stuff to and sometimes pick up from, my in-laws, uncle and aunt's garages, and wave to them. My sister & daughter do the same. It's all weird & worrying though, collective gloom.

Walter i don't blame you for your sign :-). Hope you are OK & safe in the  camper.
Hi Robbie,

Im safe and well and currently parked up at my sons place , thanks for your concern.
I was at risk of being asked questions or being moved on and fined for being 'out' without good reason ,so after talking to my son it was decided i should come here for the duration  8)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 01, 2020, 11:45:49 PM
Robbie

ps, KSAW your self
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 02, 2020, 08:26:20 AM
Do kids go out at the moment? I suppose some do, short daily exercise. It's a nice idea Littleroses.

I'd have liked being at home when I was a young child, endless holiday. I had my sister and my cousin's garden backed on to ours, we went over the fence all the time.

Working from home is OK, I only go out to deliver stuff to and sometimes pick up from, my in-laws, uncle and aunt's garages, and wave to them. My sister & daughter do the same. It's all weird & worrying though, collective gloom.

Walter i don't blame you for your sign :-). Hope you are OK & safe in the  camper.

Kids are out and about around here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on April 02, 2020, 08:46:37 AM
A poignant look at the implications of the lockdown from someone who is unlikely to live long enough to see it end.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/02/terminal-cancer-lockdown-death
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 02, 2020, 09:04:39 AM
A poignant look at the implications of the lockdown from someone who is unlikely to live long enough to see it end.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/02/terminal-cancer-lockdown-death

So very sad. :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 02, 2020, 09:55:30 AM
A poignant look at the implications of the lockdown from someone who is unlikely to live long enough to see it end.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/02/terminal-cancer-lockdown-death
A friend's father is going to die in the next day or so. They had a choice of the father being taken into hospital but then they would not be allowed to visit. So the family are in the house waiting for him to die, and then they will have to choose which 2 of them goes to the funeral.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 02, 2020, 09:58:05 AM
We will be funding the national debt.

A socialist nirvana is indeed laughable. :)
Though any govt will be forced into a much more interventionist position. In the last week there have been 950,000 applications for universal credit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 02, 2020, 10:11:53 AM
In the USA, the government's response is widely regarded as disastrous.

Here in the UK, our number of deaths per capita is now twice as bad as the USA.

Our daily deaths per capita are worse than theirs too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 02, 2020, 10:29:36 AM
In the USA, the government's response is widely regarded as disastrous.

Here in the UK, our number of deaths per capita is now twice as bad as the USA.

Our daily deaths per capita are worse than theirs too.
jeremyp

i know you are familiar with the figures but how many people per day die because of the virus
NOT number of deaths of people who tested positive and died ?

I cant seem to find that information
thanks

Walter
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 02, 2020, 11:03:57 AM
jeremyp

i know you are familiar with the figures but how many people per day die because of the virus
NOT number of deaths of people who tested positive and died ?

I cant seem to find that information
thanks

Walter

Not jeremy but hey ...

No-one knows that figure and will not until the epidemic is over .. best can do at the moment is to guess at abut half.

Even if there is some pathology that could uniquely identify covid-19 as the cause of death - more research is needed to identify it. In practice, any death will have multiple factors involved. 

But this is not only about the actual number of deaths but when these people die - even if all of these people would have died anyway this year (about half a million die each year in the UK) - if they all die in the next two or three months NHS hospitals themselves will grind to a halt. And it's not as if people will stop dying for other reasons. The alternative is for people with covid-19 not to be treated - and then many will die who could otherwise have been treated and lived happily for years to come...

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on April 02, 2020, 11:20:58 AM
I can see that the lockdown flattens the curve, so that the NHS doesn't get too many cases at once, and tons of people are just given morphine and left to die.   But what happens after that?   We can't keep a lockdown for a year.   Of course, there is the hunt for a vaccine and anti-virals.  I don't think the bugger is going to just go away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 02, 2020, 11:29:04 AM
Not jeremy but hey ...

No-one knows that figure and will not until the epidemic is over .. best can do at the moment is to guess at abut half.

Even if there is some pathology that could uniquely identify covid-19 as the cause of death - more research is needed to identify it. In practice, any death will have multiple factors involved. 

But this is not only about the actual number of deaths but when these people die - even if all of these people would have died anyway this year (about half a million die each year in the UK) - if they all die in the next two or three months NHS hospitals themselves will grind to a halt. And it's not as if people will stop dying for other reasons. The alternative is for people with covid-19 not to be treated - and then many will die who could otherwise have been treated and lived happily for years to come...
thanks for your reply however you could have stopped at the end of the second line !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 02, 2020, 12:04:58 PM
jeremyp

i know you are familiar with the figures but how many people per day die because of the virus
NOT number of deaths of people who tested positive and died ?

I cant seem to find that information
thanks

Walter

It doesn't exist. We aren't recording that information. Some people who had coronavirus might have died anyway but they are being counted. There are probably also people who died of coronavirus but who aren't being counted because they weren't known to have coronavirus at the time.

However, it's the only half way reliable statistic we have got even though it lags the situation by two to three weeks.

For example, the number of new cases reported each day is constrained by our woeful lack of testing  capacity - it's a Chernobyl geiger counter problem. I am really frustrated by the fact that we are not doing randomised testing in any sense. The government simply doesn't know the extent of the epidemic in this country. It seems obvious to me that they should be trying to find out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 02, 2020, 12:11:14 PM
Medical staff do the testing and they can't be in two places at once, when they are looking after the sick. No doubt lay people could be trained to do it, but that takes time. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 02, 2020, 12:15:29 PM
Medical staff do the testing and they can't be in two places at once, when they are looking after the sick. No doubt lay people could be trained to do it, but that takes time.

And yet Germany manage to do 500,000 tests a week. Stop letting the government off the hook. They reacted too late, thought they could bluff and bluster Boris style their way through a pandemic. They are negligent. And I would argue wilfully so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 02, 2020, 12:22:09 PM
It doesn't exist. We aren't recording that information. Some people who had coronavirus might have died anyway but they are being counted. There are probably also people who died of coronavirus but who aren't being counted because they weren't known to have coronavirus at the time.

However, it's the only half way reliable statistic we have got even though it lags the situation by two to three weeks.

For example, the number of new cases reported each day is constrained by our woeful lack of testing  capacity - it's a Chernobyl geiger counter problem. I am really frustrated by the fact that we are not doing randomised testing in any sense. The government simply doesn't know the extent of the epidemic in this country. It seems obvious to me that they should be trying to find out.
thanks old chap

I would guess a rough calculation would be to compare the normal monthly death rate with the present death rate (after enough time has passed) figures from the ONS and make a judgement 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 02, 2020, 12:24:33 PM
And yet Germany manage to do 500,000 tests a week. Stop letting the government off the hook. They reacted too late, thought they could bluff and bluster Boris style their way through a pandemic. They are negligent. And I would argue wilfully so.
Trent

if Boris himself came up with a cure for ALL ills you would still find something to criticise him for
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 02, 2020, 12:30:33 PM
And yet Germany manage to do 500,000 tests a week. Stop letting the government off the hook. They reacted too late, thought they could bluff and bluster Boris style their way through a pandemic. They are negligent. And I would argue wilfully so.

I get the impression you are not in love with Boris. ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 02, 2020, 12:31:27 PM
Trent

if Boris himself came up with a cure for ALL ills you would still find something to criticise him for
Get your tongue out of Johnson's arse
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 02, 2020, 12:34:24 PM
Trent

if Boris himself came up with a cure for ALL ills you would still find something to criticise him for

Nonsense. He's had some brilliant ideas. That garden bridge thing - that was a beauty.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 02, 2020, 12:35:31 PM
I get the impression you are not in love with Boris. ;D ;D ;D
Why would anyone be in love with an incompetent racist lying thug? The incompetence shown by the govt means people will die who didn't have to. They didn't plan, they didn't react fast enough, front line medical staff have been endangered by their failures.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 02, 2020, 12:40:00 PM
Medical staff do the testing and they can't be in two places at once, when they are looking after the sick. No doubt lay people could be trained to do it, but that takes time.
We don’t have to test everybody to get an idea of the prevalence of coronavirus in our country, only a randomized sample.

The current testing strategy suggests that the government doesn’t want to know how many people have got it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 02, 2020, 12:44:00 PM
I can see that the lockdown flattens the curve, so that the NHS doesn't get too many cases at once, and tons of people are just given morphine and left to die.   But what happens after that?   We can't keep a lockdown for a year.   Of course, there is the hunt for a vaccine and anti-virals.  I don't think the bugger is going to just go away.
I think they're hoping to gradually ease the restrictions, starting in a week or two. I suppose as more and more people get it and become immune, there's a smaller and smaller pool of potential victims, so the epidemic will naturally gradually ease off. It seems to be doing so in China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 02, 2020, 12:52:33 PM
Get your tongue out of Johnson's arse
saney

we've been here before  ::)

and just to be clear, i despise politicians of all colours
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 02, 2020, 01:17:29 PM
saney

we've been here before  ::)

and just to be clear, i despise politicians of all colours
And your approach simply enables ineptitude and failure. There's fuck all point in clapping the NHS if you don't try and make it better by holding to account those who are failing it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 02, 2020, 01:18:20 PM
We don’t have to test everybody to get an idea of the prevalence of coronavirus in our country, only a randomized sample.

The current testing strategy suggests that the government doesn’t want to know how many people have got it.

I doubt that is true.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 02, 2020, 01:24:11 PM
I doubt that is true.
Then they are simply making it worse by their utter incompetence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 02, 2020, 01:28:56 PM
Then they are simply making it worse by their utter incompetence.

I wonder if other countries are really handling it any better?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 02, 2020, 01:31:19 PM
I wonder if other countries are really handling it any better?
South Korea for one. They did it with a really comprehensive testing programme.

And as I noted  above, the UK is worse hit than the USA on a per capita basis. Think about that: our government has a worse record than the Trump administration.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 02, 2020, 01:32:15 PM
And your approach simply enables ineptitude and failure. There's fuck all point in clapping the NHS if you don't try and make it better by holding to account those who are failing it.
and your fucking whining and whimpering on a MESSAGE BOARD is really helpful is it?


If i were you I'd send the government a strong letter with a list of solutions but don't sign it with a kiss , that will show them how angry you are 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 02, 2020, 01:35:10 PM
and your fucking whining and whimpering on a MESSAGE BOARD is really helpful is it?


If i were you I'd send the government a strong letter with a list of solutions but don't sign it with a kiss , that will show them how angry you are
You need a new act. This one is threadbare.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 02, 2020, 01:40:00 PM
I wonder if other countries are really handling it any better?
Well we could be participating in the EU purchasing but we aren't because they decided not to because of dogma and then lied about it being due to a missed email. Why did they say there was no shortage of PPE when medical staff were making it clear there was? Why when they had modelled what was needed ib 2016, did they not follow through with the recommendations?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 02, 2020, 01:50:22 PM
You need a new act. This one is threadbare.
to be fair , i think we all do

I'm becoming overloaded , I'm off for a walk now , maybe return with a better frame of mind !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 02, 2020, 01:51:22 PM
to be fair , i think we all do

I'm becoming overloaded , I'm off for a walk now , maybe return with a better frame of mind !
Ok, take care.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 02, 2020, 01:52:54 PM
Well we could be participating in the EU purchasing but we aren't because they decided not to because of dogma and then lied about it being due to a missed email. Why did they say there was no shortage of PPE when medical staff were making it clear there was? Why when they had modelled what was needed ib 2016, did they not follow through with the recommendations?

https://youtu.be/DDTvLldOgZs
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 02, 2020, 01:58:47 PM
I think they're hoping to gradually ease the restrictions, starting in a week or two. I suppose as more and more people get it and become immune, there's a smaller and smaller pool of potential victims, so the epidemic will naturally gradually ease off. It seems to be doing so in China.

That is essentially the herd immunity idea, but it is not what is happening in China. If it were spreading at a fast enough rate for immunity to be widespread now, infection and death figures would most likely still be soaring.

Also, remember that although the figures are for "China" really we talking about Hubei/Wuhan - most of China has been spared the full impact due to lockdown.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 02, 2020, 02:02:21 PM
Another 6.6 million filed for unemployment in the U S this week. Last week's 3.3 M had been a record, the previous record was 695,000 in 1982.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 02, 2020, 02:08:41 PM
Then they are simply making it worse by their utter incompetence.

It is a nice idea but too expensive/impractical to give useful results - especially given our limited test capacity.

Also, though most models treat the epidemic as a stochastic process, in reality infections and contacts don't pop up randomly but exist within networks. So the sampling would need a quite sophisticated design, relying on information we probably don't have to hand. 

ETA: There is an app available in which anyone/everyone can record their symptoms or non-symptoms daily. If everyone used that then we could start to move towards a good idea of how many people were infected with symptoms. Without symptoms is still a problem.
 

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 02, 2020, 02:28:11 PM
A further 569 patients died with coronavirus in UK hospitals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on April 02, 2020, 02:32:30 PM
There is an app available in which anyone/everyone can record their symptoms or non-symptoms daily. If everyone used that then we could start to move towards a good idea of how many people were infected with symptoms. Without symptoms is still a problem.

www.joinzoe.com

Thank you for reminding me to submit my daily report.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 02, 2020, 03:07:23 PM
Ok, take care.

phew, that was like a long cool drink of Stella Artois .

didn't see another soul , wind a bit strong though!  right enjoyed it  :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 02, 2020, 03:21:37 PM
We don’t have to test everybody to get an idea of the prevalence of coronavirus in our country, only a randomized sample.

The current testing strategy suggests that the government doesn’t want to know how many people have got it.

Testing by itself isn't of much use, especially is you're recommending that those who have symptoms just stay home. For it to be of any real use, then it has to be accompanied by tracing as many people as possible who might have been exposed and getting them to quarantine. This is what South Korea has been very good at. Of course, it requires a lot of resources but it's defintely worth it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 02, 2020, 03:31:12 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52134223

I saw this story on yesterday's news, it is a great pity the BBC didn't check it out thoroughly first before broadcasting it!  :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 02, 2020, 03:40:51 PM
phew, that was like a long cool drink of Stella Artois .

didn't see another soul , wind a bit strong though!  right enjoyed it  :D

I wouldn't mind sharing a pint of Stella with you when this is all over. I do miss my locals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 02, 2020, 04:04:37 PM
I wouldn't mind sharing a pint of Stella with you when this is all over. I do miss my locals.
saney,

what a wonderful idea , we'll have a right old blowout  ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 02, 2020, 04:32:56 PM
saney,

what a wonderful idea , we'll have a right old blowout  ;D
I an having the second of my virtual whisky tastings this evening. Of the 6 people on it we have known each other for at least 35 years. I suspect that we will continue after the lockdown as while 3 of us are in and around Glasgow the others are not near  in one case being in Perth, Australia.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 02, 2020, 04:37:26 PM
I an having the second of my virtual whisky tastings this evening. Of the 6 people on it we have known each other for at least 35 years. I suspect that we will continue after the lockdown as while 3 of us are in and around Glasgow the others are not near  in one case being in Perth, Australia.

Nice! :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 02, 2020, 04:58:53 PM
Nice! :)
We could even have a virtual meet up of the message board.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on April 02, 2020, 04:59:06 PM
I an having the second of my virtual whisky tastings this evening. Of the 6 people on it we have known each other for at least 35 years. I suspect that we will continue after the lockdown as while 3 of us are in and around Glasgow the others are not near  in one case being in Perth, Australia.
I hope it isn't virtual whisky
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 02, 2020, 05:01:53 PM
I hope it isn't virtual whisky
my head after the last one was evidence that it was very real whisky
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 02, 2020, 05:17:33 PM
My friend who is on the ventilator is worse today. Very worried.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 02, 2020, 05:19:07 PM
We could even have a virtual meet up of the message board.

I'd be up for that. It would be nice to hear poster's voices. Accents. I love accents.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 02, 2020, 05:20:59 PM
I'd be up for that. It would be nice to hear poster's voices. Accents. I love accents.
And see what people look like.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 02, 2020, 05:24:46 PM
And see what people look like.

Indeed. I'll be the middle-aged bald bloke.😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 02, 2020, 05:33:16 PM
We could even have a virtual meet up of the message board.

That would be very interesting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 02, 2020, 05:35:41 PM
Indeed. I'll be the middle-aged bald bloke.😂
So will I. I am a bit bearded at the moment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 02, 2020, 05:37:13 PM
So who is going to set one up?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on April 02, 2020, 05:39:40 PM
It would have to be on a Tuesday afternoon - when I've been to the hairdresser's! However, since I can't do any of that virtual stuff, I shall not be able to join in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 02, 2020, 05:56:23 PM
So who is going to set one up?
I am happy to do so and would do so by the Zoom app. But I need to give out my Zoom number for people to join. So I would do that by PM based on who is interested.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on April 02, 2020, 06:06:13 PM
So will I. I am a bit bearded at the moment.

Which is an honourable condition to be in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 02, 2020, 06:39:20 PM
When I first read this, I thought that's nice, interesting story. But it's now a huge stushie on social media with people hugely offended that it's just pointless localism.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-52127493
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 02, 2020, 06:43:01 PM
Had to block a "friend" on Facebook today. For the past couple of weeks he's been posting that "China needs to pay" and that China should be "nuked" because, he believes, the coronavirus is a Chinese bio-weapon. Fucking idiot clogging up my timeline. This conspiracy theory has been debunked a number of times, not least of all by working out its genetic make up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 02, 2020, 07:06:46 PM
Testing by itself isn't of much use,
It is if you want to find out how much of the country is infected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 02, 2020, 07:08:41 PM
Indeed. I'll be the middle-aged bald bloke.😂
So will I.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 02, 2020, 07:14:02 PM
It is if you want to find out how much of the country is infected.

Granted. Statistically it might be useful but not so much if the goal is to slow the spread in the here and now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 02, 2020, 07:16:05 PM
When I first read this, I thought that's nice, interesting story. But it's now a huge stushie on social media with people hugely offended that it's just pointless localism.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-52127493
I clicked on the tweet and the first reply by somebody called Brexittwat (May have slightly misremembered that) was a rant about a Scottish government naming a Scottish hospital in Scotland after a Scottish nurse. I mean really?  569 people in the UK died yesterday and they post this mean spirited shit. FFS. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 02, 2020, 07:17:10 PM
Granted. Statistically it might be useful but not so much if the goal is to slow the spread in the here and now.
If you can’t measure the spread, you can’t tell if your actions are working.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 02, 2020, 07:23:03 PM
If you can’t measure the spread, you can’t tell if your actions are working.

Ok, I'll give you that as well but to be most effective it needs follow up, like going from 4G to 5G.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on April 02, 2020, 08:55:54 PM
Courtesy of the Wee Ginger Dug.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=121&v=WBaiqCl8kUY&feature=emb_logo
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 02, 2020, 09:00:50 PM
Which is an honourable condition to be in.
me too

but i haven't got any booze !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 02, 2020, 09:10:17 PM
I clicked on the tweet and the first reply by somebody called Brexittwat (May have slightly misremembered that) was a rant about a Scottish government naming a Scottish hospital in Scotland after a Scottish nurse. I mean really?  569 people in the UK died yesterday and they post this mean spirited shit. FFS.
You May say that, I couldn't possibly comment
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on April 02, 2020, 11:00:32 PM
Hi Robbie,

Im safe and well and currently parked up at my sons place , thanks for your concern.
I was at risk of being asked questions or being moved on and fined for being 'out' without good reason ,so after talking to my son it was decided i should come here for the duration  8)

That was a sensible move.  Do you talk at a distance through semi open windows :-)?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 03, 2020, 12:26:13 AM
That was a sensible move.  Do you talk at a distance through semi open windows :-)?
its a bit like that Robbie,

but there's so much open space around us my boy and I can walk together (but far apart) when ever we like when his wife is at work.
His wife is the weakest link unfortunately. It seems to be working out well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 03, 2020, 08:55:26 AM
From BBC live feed

'Indian twins named after coronavirus
Welcome to the world, Corona and Covid- these are the names of newborn twins in India's Raipur city.
The boy and girl were born amid a three-week lockdown in India. Their parents say they gave them the names as a reminder of obstacles overcome during trying times that have disrupted life across the world.
In an interview with local media, the mother said it was a "difficult" delivery. "We faced many challenges and me and my husband wanted to make the day memorable," she said, adding that she went into labour on 26 March.
"The virus is dangerous but its outbreak has made people focus on hygiene and inculcate other good habits. So we thought about these names,” she explained.
Hospital staff started calling the twins as Corona and Covid soon after they were born - which helped the parents make their decision.'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 03, 2020, 09:10:33 AM
From BBC live feed

'Indian twins named after coronavirus
Welcome to the world, Corona and Covid- these are the names of newborn twins in India's Raipur city.
The boy and girl were born amid a three-week lockdown in India. Their parents say they gave them the names as a reminder of obstacles overcome during trying times that have disrupted life across the world.
In an interview with local media, the mother said it was a "difficult" delivery. "We faced many challenges and me and my husband wanted to make the day memorable," she said, adding that she went into labour on 26 March.
"The virus is dangerous but its outbreak has made people focus on hygiene and inculcate other good habits. So we thought about these names,” she explained.
Hospital staff started calling the twins as Corona and Covid soon after they were born - which helped the parents make their decision.'

Poor kids! :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 03, 2020, 09:16:20 AM
I think they're hoping to gradually ease the restrictions, starting in a week or two. I suppose as more and more people get it and become immune, there's a smaller and smaller pool of potential victims, so the epidemic will naturally gradually ease off. It seems to be doing so in China.

H-GT,

I replied earlier but was re-considering and remembered this report that essentially supports the idea:

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

- it was pay-walled previously but seems accessible now. The (draft) study has been quite strongly criticized as it uses parameters at odds with those calculated by other researchers. It suggests that we are already approaching herd immunity.

It could be tested if (or when)  we had cheap antibody tests to perform the kind of survey jeremyp has suggested.

ETA: FT article (definitely free to read) by Tim Harford commenting on the Oxford study)
https://www.ft.com/content/14df8908-6f47-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 03, 2020, 09:22:31 AM
If we could get herd immunity without a huge desth toll, that'd be great, but I thought that was impossible without a vaccine (my previous post was probably wrong).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on April 03, 2020, 10:40:12 AM
I read elsewhere that apparently in NY, Orthodox Jews are ignoring the social distanceing rules, keeping schools open, etc. Anyone know if this is happening in this country? I tried googling but couldn't find anything relevant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 03, 2020, 10:48:10 AM
I read elsewhere that apparently in NY, Orthodox Jews are ignoring the social distanceing rules, keeping schools open, etc. Anyone know if this is happening in this country? I tried googling but couldn't find anything relevant.

I haven't seen reports of any organisations in this country ignoring the lock down. In the USA there are churches that are ignoring social distancing because "God will protect them". All the churches in the UK that I know of are being sensible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 03, 2020, 11:17:12 AM
I haven't seen reports of any organisations in this country ignoring the lock down. In the USA there are churches that are ignoring social distancing because "God will protect them". All the churches in the UK that I know of are being sensible.
Not quite all, unfortunately. (https://premierchristian.news/en/news/article/plague-protection-kit-church-under-investigation-by-charity-watchdog)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 03, 2020, 11:30:07 AM
Not quite all, unfortunately. (https://premierchristian.news/en/news/article/plague-protection-kit-church-under-investigation-by-charity-watchdog)

That guy should be prosecuted! >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on April 03, 2020, 11:43:40 AM
I haven't seen reports of any organisations in this country ignoring the lock down. In the USA there are churches that are ignoring social distancing because "God will protect them". All the churches in the UK that I know of are being sensible.
Thank you for reply.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on April 03, 2020, 12:14:13 PM
Not quite all, unfortunately. (https://premierchristian.news/en/news/article/plague-protection-kit-church-under-investigation-by-charity-watchdog)
Should've used sapient pearwood. Buggerit, I says.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 03, 2020, 12:16:01 PM
That guy should be prosecuted! >:(
and anyone who buys one should be sectioned
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 03, 2020, 04:22:05 PM
Those UK death figures make for grim reading. Almost 700 today. Makes me sad. I still deeply care what happens there. :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 03, 2020, 11:11:20 PM
Ben E King has just re-written one of his old classics, its called ;

Don't stand by me  8)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 04, 2020, 09:00:44 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52161529

This is the White House lunatic's response to the US medical advice that people should wear face masks! >:( The men in white coats should put him in a straight jacket, gag him and chain him up in a cell where he can't make anymore crazy utterances. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on April 04, 2020, 09:39:28 AM
A withering overview of the shambolic Trump and his handling of Coronavirus.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/04/trump-coronavirus-science-analysis

Reminds me of the prophetic quote from H L Mencken:

Quote
On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 04, 2020, 10:26:47 AM
I see Ocado have stopped delivering bottled water, as apparently that one change frees up 6000 delivery slots a week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 04, 2020, 10:50:20 AM
I see Ocado have stopped delivering bottled water, as apparently that one change frees up 6000 delivery slots a week.
that's terrible, everyone knows middle class people can't drink tap water ! :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 04, 2020, 10:55:12 AM
Beginning to think some of the social distancing measures are getting a bit OTT.
I've just got back from my local giant Tesco supermarket. Entrance and exit have been separated (fair enough), and to get into the main area you have to negotiate a ridiculous maze through the newspapers and magazines area, then get your trolly handle disinfected. They've got a one-way system in force, so you often have to go down one aisle and up another to get to the product you want. Then you have to wait until you're called forward by an assistant to a vacant checkout. There was also an enormously long queue waiting to get in by the time I left, though I was early enough to avoid that.
I'm starting to think that some of it is more about advertising what a socially responsible company they are than really necessary restrictions, but maybe I'm being too cynical. I uttered a few "oh, for fuck's sake"s under my breath.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 04, 2020, 10:56:21 AM
that's terrible, everyone knows middle class people can't drink tap water ! :o
Bottled water is the biggest scam and rip-off around.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 04, 2020, 11:00:28 AM



Arundhati Roy on Covid: "We can choose to walk through it, dragging the carcasses of our prejudice&hatred, our avarice, our data banks and dead ideas, our dead rivers and smoky skies behind us. Or we can walk through lightly,ready to imagine another world"
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 04, 2020, 11:05:06 AM

This covers a lot of my confusion with the govt 'strategy'



https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/03/matt-hancock-government-policy-herd-immunity-community-surveillance-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR11gs1U4hdIcr4V2NuBu7fl2oV9bMS4SLdTD6XgisTafwUtXqs8DEZ2kFw
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 04, 2020, 11:12:48 AM
Beginning to think some of the social distancing measures are getting a bit OTT.
I've just got back from my local giant Tesco supermarket. Entrance and exit have been separated (fair enough), and to get into the main area you have to negotiate a ridiculous maze through the newspapers and magazines area, then get your trolly handle disinfected.....

The problem is without that people seem unwilling or unable to maintain social distancing. I have a reasonable sized Aldi that I use and while it's 1 in, 1 out, there is a path through the store, in part because of the layout, so even if you are being careful,it's impossible to see round corners or avoid getting closer than 2m.

The queue outside doesn't have anything marked for distance so you get to see what people think is 2m, or rather what they are willing to accept as a distance to stand apart. Given that I am only 3 centimetres off of 2m tall, I am well aware of the distance.
In addition to that there are also the store staff, our new key workers, to consider so I think your Tesco's has it about right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 04, 2020, 11:15:53 AM
Social distancing is very important, people who don't do it are idiots.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 04, 2020, 11:23:29 AM
saney

you are approximately a lot taller than me  :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ekim on April 04, 2020, 12:40:39 PM
The supermarket I went to yesterday had two meter marks around the car park and a one in one out process.  It took me 15 minutes to shop and 45 minutes to queue.  I'm glad it wasn't raining.  It would be more like a death march then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 04, 2020, 12:56:53 PM
The problem is without that people seem unwilling or unable to maintain social distancing. I have a reasonable sized Aldi that I use and while it's 1 in, 1 out, there is a path through the store, in part because of the layout, so even if you are being careful,it's impossible to see round corners or avoid getting closer than 2m.

The queue outside doesn't have anything marked for distance so you get to see what people think is 2m, or rather what they are willing to accept as a distance to stand apart. Given that I am only 3 centimetres off of 2m tall, I am well aware of the distance.
In addition to that there are also the store staff, our new key workers, to consider so I think your Tesco's has it about right.
I was in Sainsbury’s today. It was pretty much impossible to maintain two meters distancing because as soon as somebody stopped in an aisle, it would be effectively blocked.

I wouldn’t fret too much about it. It’s not like you’re definitely going to catch coronavirus if you get within two meters of somebody who likely doesn’t have it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on April 04, 2020, 01:21:02 PM
I believe Tesco are right to impose such measures Hercules. Better safe than sorry. It doesn't seem to have inconvenienced you too much, glad you got your shopping.

Husband cooked brunch and is planning to do a barbecue for just me and him tonight for my 60th.That sure is novel :-).

It sure is quiet round here as if the whole area is resting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 04, 2020, 01:21:35 PM
I believe Tesco are right to impose such measures Hercules. Better safe than sorry. It doesn't seem to have inconvenienced you too much, glad you got your shopping.

Husband cooked brunch and is planning to do a barbecue for just me and him tonight for my 60th.That sure is novel :-).

It sure is quiet round here as if the whole area is resting.
  Happy birthday!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 04, 2020, 01:22:59 PM
People setting fire to 5G masts because that's what's behind Covid 19.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52164358?fbclid=IwAR0tqJdcNZwRoew8I8hx_W748tgmJ-u1qbboAppU0RjHVJKWpDvNIjK1JB0
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 04, 2020, 01:35:15 PM
People setting fire to 5G masts because that's what's behind Covid 19.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52164358?fbclid=IwAR0tqJdcNZwRoew8I8hx_W748tgmJ-u1qbboAppU0RjHVJKWpDvNIjK1JB0

People are barking mad! >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 04, 2020, 02:04:06 PM
People setting fire to 5G masts because that's what's behind Covid 19.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52164358?fbclid=IwAR0tqJdcNZwRoew8I8hx_W748tgmJ-u1qbboAppU0RjHVJKWpDvNIjK1JB0
did you know?

chocolate milk comes from brown cows  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 04, 2020, 02:24:24 PM
did you know?

chocolate milk comes from brown cows  :)

Surely everyone knows that. :P ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Stranger on April 04, 2020, 02:29:01 PM
People setting fire to 5G masts because that's what's behind Covid 19.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52164358?fbclid=IwAR0tqJdcNZwRoew8I8hx_W748tgmJ-u1qbboAppU0RjHVJKWpDvNIjK1JB0

Human stupidity really is infinite...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on April 04, 2020, 04:00:19 PM


A nice short video on the coronavirus...!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRzddVgSyho
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on April 04, 2020, 04:16:45 PM



But even he doesn't explain why the virus is exploding in some advanced countries and (fortunately) is not so virulent in most other relatively more crowded and poorer countries.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 04, 2020, 04:21:28 PM


But even he doesn't explain why the virus is exploding in some advanced countries and (fortunately) is not so virulent in most other relatively more crowded and poorer countries.

Only in advanced countries can they afford to do a lot of testing. Maybe in the poorest countries people are dying in droves, but the government simply doesn’t know about it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 04, 2020, 04:31:07 PM


But even he doesn't explain why the virus is exploding in some advanced countries and (fortunately) is not so virulent in most other relatively more crowded and poorer countries.
sri

do you have some thoughts on that you'd like to share with us?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on April 04, 2020, 04:37:35 PM
Only in advanced countries can they afford to do a lot of testing. Maybe in the poorest countries people are dying in droves, but the government simply doesn’t know about it.



That is the usual 'explanation' that advanced countries resort to....but it is nonsense.  If 5000 people die within a few weeks of similar symptoms, people will notice even in African countries and Bangladesh.  You have a very wrong impression about the communication and other facilities in most countries in today's world.

Under reporting could be to the extent of 10 or 20 %.... not 1000 %

There is obviously something that people haven't understood yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 04, 2020, 04:49:16 PM


That is the usual 'explanation' that advanced countries resort to....but it is nonsense.  If 5000 people die within a few weeks of similar symptoms, people will notice even in African countries and Bangladesh.  You have a very wrong impression about the communication and other facilities in most countries in today's world.

Under reporting could be to the extent of 10 or 20 %.... not 1000 %

There is obviously something that people haven't understood yet.
Conspiracy-theoretical nonsense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 04, 2020, 04:53:47 PM
sriram
Quote
There is obviously something that people haven't understood yet.

have you any idea what that might be?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 04, 2020, 04:57:11 PM
My doctor brother-in-law has been asked to return to the NHS even though he gave up being a medic in the 80s to follow another career path. He is now in his 70s and thinks he has been out of action in that regard for far too long to be of any use. I thought the NHS was only asking the recently retired to return, not those who left so very long ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 04, 2020, 05:11:34 PM
That is the usual 'explanation' that advanced countries resort to....but it is nonsense.
No it isn't.

We see it even in advanced countries. The number of cases you have is directly related to the quality of your testing. In the UK, for  example, the "confirmed cases" figure really  only tells us how many tests the NHS was able to do.

Quote
If 5000 people die within a few weeks of similar symptoms, people will notice even in African countries and Bangladesh.  You have a very wrong impression about the communication and other facilities in most countries in today's world.
Not necessarily. In Bangladesh something like 2,000 people die every day. 5,000 extra in a few weeks might go unnoticed. And  a lot of the people coronavirus kills were very ill anyway.

Quote
There is obviously something that people haven't understood yet.
Quite possibly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 04, 2020, 05:12:58 PM
My doctor brother-in-law has been asked to return to the NHS even though he gave up being a medic in the 80s to follow another career path. He is now in his 70s and thinks he has been out of action in that regard for far too long to be of any use. I thought the NHS was only asking the recently retired to return, not those who left so very long ago.
He's also in a high risk group. He shouldn't be on the "front line" but there might be other admin things he can do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 04, 2020, 05:18:13 PM
He's also in a high risk group. He shouldn't be on the "front line" but there might be other admin things he can do.

He has health problems so I doubt he could do that either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on April 04, 2020, 05:22:23 PM
No it isn't.

We see it even in advanced countries. The number of cases you have is directly related to the quality of your testing. In the UK, for  example, the "confirmed cases" figure really  only tells us how many tests the NHS was able to do.
Not necessarily. In Bangladesh something like 2,000 people die every day. 5,000 extra in a few weeks might go unnoticed. And  a lot of the people coronavirus kills were very ill anyway.
Quite possibly.


You must understand that there are about 150 to 200 countries on this planet where the virus is not exploding the way it is doing in about 15 countries. In many countries the number of cases are in the hundreds and even in the tens. The number of deaths in many of these countries are in the tens and even single digits.

'Explanations' such as under reporting and 'no one knows' are dismissive and simply wrong. 

I have no idea what the reason is.... but some theories such as temperature, temperate zone and malarial resistance have been advanced.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 04, 2020, 05:30:31 PM
There are good guys and then there are bad guys


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52166185
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 04, 2020, 05:55:07 PM
There are good guys and then there are bad guys


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52166185
my response


a 5 letter word beginning with C  ends with S

you got it .........CRASS!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 04, 2020, 06:05:31 PM
my response


a 5 letter word beginning with C  ends with S

you got it .........CRASS!
Complete and utter
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 04, 2020, 06:22:13 PM

You must understand that there are about 150 to 200 countries on this planet where the virus is not exploding the way it is doing in about 15 countries.
You must understand that "exploding" is dependent on a country actually recording cases and deaths.

Quote
'Explanations' such as under reporting and 'no one knows' are dismissive and simply wrong.

Quote
I have no idea what the reason is
So you are simply wrong?

Quote
.... but some theories such as temperature, temperate zone and malarial resistance have been advanced.
I would be sceptical about the malarial resistance one, but all the others could have some effect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 04, 2020, 06:25:37 PM
There are good guys and then there are bad guys


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52166185

Is £10,000 per month a lot? If there's 500 patients, that's £20 per patient.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 04, 2020, 06:34:37 PM
Is £10,000 per month a lot? If there's 500 patients, that's £20 per patient.
Is a £10 call a lot to talk to your family if you can't afford it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 04, 2020, 07:12:58 PM
Is a £10 call a lot to talk to your family if you can't afford it?
Anything is a lot if you can't afford it.

However, you're talking about two different things. You are talking about a person being price gouged under the current system against a new system that hasn't been instituted yet where the patient is not charged at all. This £10,000 per month is what the hospital would have to pay to stop Irene Simpkin's 87-year-old mother from being charged £11.33 for a 16 minute phone call.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 04, 2020, 07:40:14 PM
Anything is a lot if you can't afford it.

However, you're talking about two different things. You are talking about a person being price gouged under the current system against a new system that hasn't been instituted yet where the patient is not charged at all. This £10,000 per month is what the hospital would have to pay to stop Irene Simpkin's 87-year-old mother from being charged £11.33 for a 16 minute phone call.
The gouging was already there. The company continues it, they are as Walter puts it c---s
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 04, 2020, 08:36:46 PM
The gouging was already there.
Correct.

Quote
The company continues it, they are as Walter puts it c---s

Only if £10,000 per month is an unreasonable amount of money to provide the telephone service to the hospital. That's why I asked if it is a lot. I do not know how much such a service would cost the provider and neither do you.

As I said, if there are 500 patients, it's £20 per month per person. That doesn't seem unreasonable to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on April 05, 2020, 09:40:21 AM


https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/donald-trump-requested-pm-modi-to-release-us-order-of-hydroxychloroquine-stockpile-2206295?pfrom=home-bigstory

*********
The hydroxychloroquine, the anti-malaria drug will be released through the Strategic National Stockpile for treatment," Donald Trump said.

US President Donald Trump on Saturday said that he has requested Prime Minister Narendra Modi to supply hydroxychloroquine tablets that can be used to treat COVID-19 patients.

"After call today with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is giving serious consideration to releasing the hold it put on a US order for hydroxychloroquine," US President Trump announced at the White House Coronavirus task force briefing that he requested PM Narendra Modi for more Hydroxychloroquine tablets.

President Trump did not shy away from saying he too will take a tablet of hydroxychloroquine after announcing that he has requested Prime Minister during his telephonic conversation on Saturday to lift a hold on the US order of the medicine.
*********
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 05, 2020, 10:01:27 AM

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/donald-trump-requested-pm-modi-to-release-us-order-of-hydroxychloroquine-stockpile-2206295?pfrom=home-bigstory

*********
The hydroxychloroquine, the anti-malaria drug will be released through the Strategic National Stockpile for treatment," Donald Trump said.

US President Donald Trump on Saturday said that he has requested Prime Minister Narendra Modi to supply hydroxychloroquine tablets that can be used to treat COVID-19 patients.

"After call today with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is giving serious consideration to releasing the hold it put on a US order for hydroxychloroquine," US President Trump announced at the White House Coronavirus task force briefing that he requested PM Narendra Modi for more Hydroxychloroquine tablets.

President Trump did not shy away from saying he too will take a tablet of hydroxychloroquine after announcing that he has requested Prime Minister during his telephonic conversation on Saturday to lift a hold on the US order of the medicine.
*********

Considering he is trying to stop 3M from shipping medical supplies to Canada, I'd say Trump has a lot of cheek.

By the way, there's no evidence that hydroxychloroquine is effective against COVID19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 05, 2020, 10:40:50 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52172035

Outdoor exercise could be banned if people don't obey the rules. That would be a great shame and a disservice to those of us who do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 05, 2020, 12:10:35 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52172035

Outdoor exercise could be banned if people don't obey the rules. That would be a great shame and a disservice to those of us who do.
I think we've all got the message that you're being socially responsible and observing all the restrictions now, so you don't need to keep mentioning it in passing anymore.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 05, 2020, 12:24:30 PM
I think we've all got the message that you're being socially responsible and observing all the restrictions now, so you don't need to keep mentioning it in passing anymore.

I hope other like YOU are obeying the rules too?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 05, 2020, 12:24:45 PM
I hope others like YOU are obeying the rules too?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 05, 2020, 12:30:58 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52172035

Outdoor exercise could be banned if people don't obey the rules. That would be a great shame and a disservice to those of us who do.

That seems rather odd to me: punish everybody for the actions  of a few.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 05, 2020, 12:42:11 PM
That seems rather odd to me: punish everybody for the actions  of a few.

Not sure how else you could enforce it. I mean it's not like we've been recruiting huge numbers of police over the last decade to pursue those resisting social distancing measures.

We went out for a walk yesterday and there were clearly non-family groups of people not observing social distancing on the  beach and seafront.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on April 05, 2020, 01:04:30 PM
My pack of playing cards arrived yesterday. They are the same size as normal ones but although the numbers and one heart, diamond, etc next to number are large and I can tell what they are when my nose is practically touching them, ) I tried laying out a Patience game this morning (on dark material), the ony way I'd be able to play is if I looked at each upturned card each time and remembered all the others. I might have another go - after all, there's certainly plenty of time to do that! - but I don't think I'm going to be strongly motivated to persevere.

Increased number of laps to 14 today and time to 35 minutes. *says me assuming I've already written somewhere that I'm doing a walkup and down in the close outside my front door*
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 05, 2020, 01:22:09 PM
That seems rather odd to me: punish everybody for the actions  of a few.

It might seem unfair, but how else can they do it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on April 05, 2020, 01:47:07 PM
Not sure how else you could enforce it. I mean it's not like we've been recruiting huge numbers of police over the last decade to pursue those resisting social distancing measures.

We went out for a walk yesterday and there were clearly non-family groups of people not observing social distancing on the  beach and seafront.

Just been for a walk, it was chaos really.  Joggers, cyclists, teenagers sauntering along, guys playing football.  I remonstrated with one girl, and she said, well, I'm not going to die.  Thanks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 05, 2020, 01:49:56 PM
It might seem unfair, but how else can they do it?
By punishing the rule-breakers, obviously. Collective punishment was a favourite tactic of the Nazis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 05, 2020, 01:54:16 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52172035

Outdoor exercise could be banned if people don't obey the rules. That would be a great shame and a disservice to those of us who do.

Yes, obviously the next logical step. Followed by banning all cakes, biscuits and pies.

It is all beginning to make sense now: Once the car industry has been turned to full scale "ventilator" production and the 5G system can start streaming netflix directly into our eye sockets we will be in the Matrix!
   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 05, 2020, 01:56:24 PM
Just been for a walk, it was chaos really.  Joggers, cyclists, teenagers sauntering along, guys playing football.  I remonstrated with one girl, and she said, well, I'm not going to die.  Thanks.

Yes, well... actually stopping to "remonstrate" with anyone is probably the most risky activity :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on April 05, 2020, 02:04:45 PM
Yes, well... actually stopping to "remonstrate" with anyone is probably the most risky activity :)

Not really.   We were on same path, she steaming along with headphones in, I leap out of the way, and remonstrate.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 05, 2020, 02:40:33 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52172570

I hope people who spout this garbage will be prosecuted. >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 05, 2020, 02:48:46 PM
Not sure how else you could enforce it. I mean it's not like we've been recruiting huge numbers of police over the last decade to pursue those resisting social distancing measures.

We went out for a walk yesterday and there were clearly non-family groups of people not observing social distancing on the  beach and seafront.
You enforce it the same way as you enforce all the other laws. You arrest and punish the perpetrators. It’s not like they’re hard to find.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 05, 2020, 02:51:24 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52172570

I hope people who spout this garbage will be prosecuted. >:(
No. They need to punish all of us by taking away our mobile phones. It’s the only way /sarcasm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 05, 2020, 03:03:12 PM
You enforce it the same way as you enforce all the other laws. You arrest and punish the perpetrators. It’s not like they’re hard to find.

The police haven't got the manpower at present.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 05, 2020, 03:06:14 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52172570

I hope people who spout this garbage will be prosecuted. >:(
For what? Being stupid?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 05, 2020, 03:11:55 PM
For what? Being stupid?

Yes, as some idiots think the masts should be destroyed.  >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 05, 2020, 03:22:53 PM
The police haven't got the manpower at present.
Yes they have.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 05, 2020, 03:24:27 PM
Yes they have.

No they haven't, they say they are overstretched.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 05, 2020, 03:31:34 PM
No they haven't, they say they are overstretched.

Is that because they're all busy flying drones over Peak District tourist spots?

It really isn't hard to enforce the rules. You just drive around and arrest people who are outside in groups. There is no justification to punish us all because of a few bad apples.

You give the impression that you are actually enjoying the fact that everybody has  to lead miserable lives now. Please stop it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 05, 2020, 04:06:28 PM
Is that because they're all busy flying drones over Peak District tourist spots?

It really isn't hard to enforce the rules. You just drive around and arrest people who are outside in groups. There is no justification to punish us all because of a few bad apples.

You give the impression that you are actually enjoying the fact that everybody has  to lead miserable lives now. Please stop it.

Don't be so silly! ::) People have got to comply whether they like it or not, this crisis is probably the worst since WW2.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 05, 2020, 04:18:45 PM
The police haven't got the manpower at present.
Lr

check for the evil monkey living in your wardrobe  :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 05, 2020, 04:29:28 PM
You enforce it the same way as you enforce all the other laws. You arrest and punish the perpetrators. It’s not like they’re hard to find.

I think you are missing my point. The police haven't had the ability to enforce all the other laws, what makes you think they'll be able to enforce this one?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 05, 2020, 04:31:24 PM
Don't be so silly! ::) People have got to comply whether they like it or not, this crisis is probably the worst since WW2.

But if the regulations are stupid, what then?

How are you going to enforce not going out for exercise? What if I choose to go on a twenty mile hike that includes a shop half way round?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 05, 2020, 04:32:53 PM
I think you are missing my point. The police haven't had the ability to enforce all the other laws, what makes you think they'll be able to enforce this one?
And yet they don't force us all to keep inside just because they can't prevent burglaries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 05, 2020, 04:39:46 PM
But if the regulations are stupid, what then?

How are you going to enforce not going out for exercise? What if I choose to go on a twenty mile hike that includes a shop half way round?

I don't think the regulations are stupid, the stupid ones are those not obeying them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 05, 2020, 04:51:14 PM
And yet they don't force us all to keep inside just because they can't prevent burglaries.

So is a burglary the same as the possibility of passing on a fatal illness because of stupidity?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 05, 2020, 04:56:18 PM
As unpleasant as a burglary is, it is not in the same league as  the Covid-19 virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 05, 2020, 05:01:23 PM
So is a burglary the same as the possibility of passing on a fatal illness because of stupidity?
But you agree we are not all locked up inside because the police can't enforce the rules.

It's ludicrous expecting us all to be punished for the actions of a very few people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 05, 2020, 05:30:05 PM
They should use mobile data to check where people are or have been or are going. Linked to covid status so people can be warned if it is likely they have been or are in danger of infection.

They will have to do this or similar to release us from lockdown before a vaccine or effective treatment is developed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 05, 2020, 07:15:38 PM
The police haven't got the manpower at present.
How do you know?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 05, 2020, 09:20:59 PM

Johnson in hospital

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52177125
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on April 05, 2020, 09:31:39 PM
Johnson in hospital

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52177125

Oh dear: I do hope he recovers, since this is a nasty illness that one wouldn't wish on anyone.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 06, 2020, 08:12:00 AM
Oh dear: I do hope he recovers, since this is a nasty illness that one wouldn't wish on anyone.

I hope he recovers too, even if he isn't my favourite PM.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52177586

A tiger at a zoo in New York City has tested positive for Covid-19. I didn't think it affected animals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 06, 2020, 09:43:29 AM
It doesn't normally, but...

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/coronavirus-pet-dog-can-you-catch-it-transmission-a9376926.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 06, 2020, 10:03:26 AM
I hope he recovers too, even if he isn't my favourite PM.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52177586

A tiger at a zoo in New York City has tested positive for Covid-19. I didn't think it affected animals.

It jumped species from a bat to a human, possibly via a pangolin, so I guess I shouldn't be surprised (although I was).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on April 06, 2020, 10:35:51 AM
For any Aberdonians a long way from home - Coronavirus guidance in Doric.

Doric advice (https://twitter.com/BrambleGraphics/status/1246775357916827648?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1246775357916827648&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fuk-scotland-52097887)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 06, 2020, 10:38:49 AM
Being VERY, VERY OLD does have its advantages. I had been advised by our eldest to do my shopping at Tesco during the old people's happy hour 9am-10am on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. I was sceptical, but did as I was told, for once. WOW it was good. There was no queue, I was handed a sanitised trolley and ushered into the store. They had most of the things I required, apart from canned tomato soup.  I was home just before 9.30.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 06, 2020, 10:50:33 AM
IF we are all 'LOCKDOWN' why has a Dreamliner just flown over on its way to LAX? from LONDON HEATH ROW
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 06, 2020, 11:07:27 AM
Being VERY, VERY OLD does have its advantages. I had been advised by our eldest to do my shopping at Tesco during the old people's happy hour 9am-10am on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. I was sceptical, but did as I was told, for once. WOW it was good. There was no queue, I was handed a sanitised trolley and ushered into the store. They had most of the things I required, apart from canned tomato soup.  I was home just before 9.30.
Lr

here's some more advice ;

don't lick door handles !   8)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 06, 2020, 11:41:23 AM
Lr

here's some more advice ;

don't lick door handles !   8)

It is the best way of keeping them clean. :P ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 06, 2020, 11:46:51 AM
It is the best way of keeping them clean. :P ;D
Lr

KSAW  ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 06, 2020, 03:11:48 PM
Unbelievable! :(

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-52183888
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 06, 2020, 03:16:43 PM
Unbelievable! :(

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-52183888
Lr

I know, he could have had cake ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 06, 2020, 04:44:40 PM
Rather lovely story

'A couple in Spain, both 88 and married for 65 years, have both recovered from the virus and left hospital on the same day. Wishing Guadalupe and Jose many more years of happiness!'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 06, 2020, 04:49:30 PM
Rather lovely story

'A couple in Spain, both 88 and married for 65 years, have both recovered from the virus and left hospital on the same day. Wishing Guadalupe and Jose many more years of happiness!'

Nice!😊
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 06, 2020, 04:51:38 PM
Hmmm - The AirBnB model is problematic in the current time

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52184497
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on April 06, 2020, 07:44:26 PM
this morning, I phoned Hants Adult Social Services and This afternoon, I have had a phone call from a woman who was given my number by them and who was helpful in giving me more information and a couple of phone numbers for eh particular problem I have, i.e. no-one to take the responsibility of doing my shopping. So I hope I'm getting somewhere on that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 06, 2020, 07:48:05 PM
this morning, I phoned Hants Adult Social Services and This afternoon, I have had a phone call from a woman who was given my number by them and who was helpful in giving me more information and a couple of phone numbers for eh particular problem I have, i.e. no-one to take the responsibility of doing my shopping. So I hope I'm getting somewhere on that.
This is an illustration of how bad the planning was. The modelling exercise in 2016 was ignored. The Tories have created a farce. Additionally it is the people who were the elderly 'well' who are more screwed by this lack of planning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 06, 2020, 07:48:51 PM
Goop is its usual shite.


https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/goop-coronavirus-kelly-brogan-expert-contributor-md-deaths-covid-19-a9421476.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 06, 2020, 07:55:54 PM
Watching Channel 4 news report on Bangladesh and it almost doesn't matter what happens as regards the spread of the virus,  people will starve to death because of the effect
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on April 06, 2020, 08:21:32 PM
The Guardian are reporting that Johnson's condition has worsened and that he has been moved to intensive care.

As is the BBC.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 06, 2020, 08:24:37 PM
The Guardian are reporting that Johnson's condition has worsened and that he has been moved to intensive care.

As is the BBC.
I know and do not like the man, but I hope he gets better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Stranger on April 06, 2020, 08:50:13 PM
'Self-isolate': Dalek surprises residents of UK fishing village (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/06/self-isolate-mystery-dalek-orders-humans-in-the-age-of-coronavirus)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Stranger on April 06, 2020, 08:51:18 PM
I know and do not like the man, but I hope he gets better.

Likewise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 06, 2020, 08:53:23 PM
Goop is its usual shite.


https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/goop-coronavirus-kelly-brogan-expert-contributor-md-deaths-covid-19-a9421476.html
being a fully qualified civil engineer doesn't mean you are good at building welsh dressers !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 06, 2020, 10:41:19 PM
to be honest , i found that BBC item reporting from an ICU very stressful and extremely emotional .

I don't think i could survive that experience again !


KEEP away from me  :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 07, 2020, 08:17:58 AM
Poor Boris. :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 07, 2020, 08:23:44 AM
I didn't know cars could catch it... (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-52193662)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 07, 2020, 08:32:43 AM
What's interesting here is that the graphs of increased numbers over time are straight lines: if the rate increases exponentially, as you'd expect, it ought to be a convex curve, becoming increasingly steep.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52133054
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 07, 2020, 09:41:34 AM
What's interesting here is that the graphs of increased numbers over time are straight lines: if the rate increases exponentially, as you'd expect, it ought to be a convex curve, becoming increasingly steep.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52133054

The scale on the y axis is logarithmic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logarithmic_scale). A straight line (non horizontal) means an exponential rise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on April 07, 2020, 10:16:50 AM
What's interesting here is that the graphs of increased numbers over time are straight lines: if the rate increases exponentially, as you'd expect, it ought to be a convex curve, becoming increasingly steep.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52133054
Err - that's because it is a log-scale on the y-axis - hence an exponential increase appears as a straight line.

Just look at the numbers - there are equal scale lengths between 1-10, 10-100 and 100-1000
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 07, 2020, 10:24:27 AM
The scale on the y axis is logarithmic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logarithmic_scale). A straight line (non horizontal) means an exponential rise.
I take it you mean the vertical axis: yes, I see what you mean.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on April 07, 2020, 11:37:55 AM
I take it you mean the vertical axis: yes, I see what you mean.
Yes - the vertical axis is called the y-axis, the horizontal one being the x-axis.

As a scientist I've been a bit frustrated with the presentation of data and not being clear what it means - this is perhaps the most obvious example. I think a lot of people will look at a log graph and see a straight line or even a flattening and think things are stable or even improving. But the straight line stability in a log graph simply means that cases (or deaths) are continuing to double in the same number of days.

The media need to be better at explaining this I think.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 07, 2020, 11:49:36 AM
As a scientist I've been a bit frustrated with the presentation of data and not being clear what it means
I completely agree with this point and it's beginning to wind me up. Watching the BBC last night they presented a number of graphs all with logarithmic scales and didn't point that out a single time. For example, they showed the "number of deaths since the first recorded death" graph. If you compared the UK's line with Spain, they looked similar with the UK just slightly below. However, the scale was logarithmic and the gap between zero and UK deaths represented the same number of people as the gap between the UK and Spain. i.e. Spain has twice as many deaths as the UK at the moment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 07, 2020, 02:32:26 PM
Michael Gove is self-isolating as a member of his family has the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 07, 2020, 02:33:02 PM
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This is a site I've used to kerp track of what's happening globally and by country. They have both linear and logarithmic scales. To be honest, I don't know what either of them really mean, but some might find it interesting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 07, 2020, 04:56:28 PM
There are a lot of employers who are currently pledging to keep employees on until around August. Even if we are out of it by then, there will be a lot of employees who will lose their jobs in those firms in the following 3 months. This is going to be absolutely brutal and the govts are probably just being very careful not to mention this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 07, 2020, 05:20:56 PM
There are a lot of employers who are currently pledging to keep employees on until around August. Even if we are out of it by then, there will be a lot of employees who will lose their jobs in those firms in the following 3 months. This is going to be absolutely brutal and the govts are probably just being very careful not to mention this.

The economic consequences will be felt for years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 07, 2020, 05:37:42 PM
The economic consequences will be felt for years.
The question is whether it leads to some seismic change in economic systems. We are in uncharted territory.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 07, 2020, 05:41:38 PM
The question is whether it leads to some seismic change in economic systems. We are in uncharted territory.

Indeed. If any sense is to some of this, then a fairer system has to arise. One where workers rights are more protected and where third world debt is forgiven. The economic impact will go much deeper than that too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 07, 2020, 05:48:03 PM
Indeed. If any sense is to some of this, then a fairer system has to arise. One where workers rights are more protected and where third world debt is forgiven. The economic impact will go much deeper than that too.
My fear is that it will go the opposite way. We will pull up the idea of global responsibility and greatly harm the third world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 07, 2020, 05:56:05 PM
My fear is that it will go the opposite way. We will pull up the idea of global responsibility and greatly harm the third world.

Hopefully not. It's in the interests of the first world that the third world develops, in my opinion. Mutual benefit. Another good thing I hope might come of this is an end to austerity as the only means of reviving the economy. Borrowing and the public sector isn't always bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 07, 2020, 08:37:55 PM
Only read this if you are feeling resilient:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts

And even though he is ill and I wish him a full recovery, I hope no-one forgets that he was the PM that flirted with the idea of herd immunity derived from mass infection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 07, 2020, 08:58:18 PM
Only read this if you are feeling resilient:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts

And even though he is ill and I wish him a full recovery, I hope no-one forgets that he was the PM that flirted with the idea of herd immunity derived from mass infection.
I think it’s nonsense. Looking at the current death trends, we are well under Spain, for example and the death rate increase is already not exponential.

The study is based on a steep climb early on, but since then the trend had not continued and we are unlikely to get into the position of the health services being completely overwhelmed as they were in Italy and Spain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 08, 2020, 05:51:39 AM
How anyone can take David Icke seriously, I'll never know.

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-52198946
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 08, 2020, 08:25:45 AM
Icke is totally bonkers, sadly he takes in the gullible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 08, 2020, 08:29:57 AM

Marina Hyde in restrained but excellent form.

https://t.co/6esfQPFBfs?fbclid=IwAR10kVrQCOXU0gMWv5v0HpZZUPzjL8-frlnRBy3g4uhx1VUhiqgcazBKPpg
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 08, 2020, 09:12:17 AM
Marina Hyde in restrained but excellent form.

https://t.co/6esfQPFBfs?fbclid=IwAR10kVrQCOXU0gMWv5v0HpZZUPzjL8-frlnRBy3g4uhx1VUhiqgcazBKPpg
Excellent as usual. I've long felt myself that the military metaphors with regard ro cancer are not helpful: no-one ever just "has" cancer; they're always "battling" or "fighting" it, which is especially inappropriate, as she says, when all you can do is obey the doctors: if that's battling, it is curiously passive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 08, 2020, 09:47:17 AM
Marina Hyde in restrained but excellent form.

https://t.co/6esfQPFBfs?fbclid=IwAR10kVrQCOXU0gMWv5v0HpZZUPzjL8-frlnRBy3g4uhx1VUhiqgcazBKPpg

I absolutely hate the way people characterise crises as wars. The "war on terror" was a mistake the "war on drugs" is a  mistake. The "war on coronavirus is a mistake".

If you describe a problem as a nail, everybody brings hammers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on April 08, 2020, 10:17:23 AM
Only read this if you are feeling resilient:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts

And even though he is ill and I wish him a full recovery, I hope no-one forgets that he was the PM that flirted with the idea of herd immunity derived from mass infection.

Yes, that was about to curdle the breakfast milk, but the graph printed shows deaths climbing very soon to 1500 and then 2000 daily, so I guess we will find out.   The govt did fanny around at first, and got sucked into herd immunity, until the Imperial College predictions shocked everyone, plus Italy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 08, 2020, 10:27:00 AM
This gets it right for me on the idea of clapping for Johnson

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1247777868261634048.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 08, 2020, 10:43:40 AM
I absolutely hate the way people characterise crises as wars. The "war on terror" was a mistake the "war on drugs" is a  mistake. The "war on coronavirus is a mistake".

If you describe a problem as a nail, everybody brings hammers.
Agree, it also tends to crowd out ideas as it dictates a siege mentality and leads to group think as the alternatives are seen as being divisive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 08, 2020, 12:01:57 PM
And another good article


https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/there-is-nothing-tough-about-beating-coronavirus/amp?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 08, 2020, 12:22:46 PM
And another good article


https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/there-is-nothing-tough-about-beating-coronavirus/amp?__twitter_impression=true

I agree.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 08, 2020, 12:39:29 PM
This gets it right for me on the idea of clapping for Johnson

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1247777868261634048.html
I dare say Johnson has been given the clap a number of times, but that was ridiculous.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on April 08, 2020, 12:42:42 PM
Indeed. If any sense is to some of this, then a fairer system has to arise. One where workers rights are more protected and where third world debt is forgiven. The economic impact will go much deeper than that too.

The system that pulled millions out of poverty and greatly increased living standards throughout the world?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 08, 2020, 12:45:19 PM
The system that pulled millions out of poverty and greatly increased living standards throughout the world?

For some, but not for all. That same system has also kept millions, if not billions, of people around the world in poverty.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on April 08, 2020, 01:40:19 PM
https://premierchristian.news/en/news/article/former-bishop-of-rochester-michael-nazir-ali-suggests-relaxing-the-rules-for-churches-over-easter?fbclid=IwAR2k71KgqfRb8VOmjZlP7b7yhpd7lRNATVbOshqvjehWCGGtVpzHgNYwVNU

What an idiot - what planet is he on if he thinks that churches should be re-opened for Easter.

Nazir Ali told Premier Christian News: "It's quite nuanced - I'm not saying that safe distancing should not be observed, but why discriminate against churches?

In what way are churches being discriminated against - last time I looked all non essential gatherings are banned - churches are in exactly the same position as sports events, theatres, cinemas, team sports, choirs, non-virtual exercise classes etc etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on April 08, 2020, 01:57:39 PM
https://premierchristian.news/en/news/article/former-bishop-of-rochester-michael-nazir-ali-suggests-relaxing-the-rules-for-churches-over-easter?fbclid=IwAR2k71KgqfRb8VOmjZlP7b7yhpd7lRNATVbOshqvjehWCGGtVpzHgNYwVNU

What an idiot - what planet is he on if he thinks that churches should be re-opened for Easter.

Nazir Ali told Premier Christian News: "It's quite nuanced - I'm not saying that safe distancing should not be observed, but why discriminate against churches?

In what way are churches being discriminated against - last time I looked all non essential gatherings are banned - churches are in exactly the same position as sports events, theatres, cinemas, team sports, choirs, non-virtual exercise classes etc etc.

Proff D, leave the christians alone you know how they jump at the chance of becoming victims or being oppressed, all you're doing is trying to stop them enjoying themselves.

ippy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 08, 2020, 02:03:13 PM
And another good article


https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/there-is-nothing-tough-about-beating-coronavirus/amp?__twitter_impression=true

Hmm,

I think Johnson's "toughness" or desire to appear tough might, in part, be responsible for putting him in his current position in an ICU. He got sick and instead taking time off to give his body a chance to fight the disease, he carried on working.

Another thing that's winding me up: he was described as being in "good spirits" four times by three people in the space of five minutes on the BBC lunchtime news. Sorry, but I don't believe it. He's a human being in an ICU with a life threatening disease. |I would not be in good spirits in that situation. I don't  expect Johnson to be, nor would I think any  the worse of him if it was reported that he was quite unhappy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on April 08, 2020, 02:05:45 PM
Proff D, leave the christians alone you know how they jump at the chance of becoming victims or being oppressed, all you're doing is trying to stop them enjoying themselves.

ippy.
I know - discrimination in christian terms all too often means not being able to have privileges that other similar organisations don't enjoy.

And actually from what I can see churches are very well set up to provide 'virtual' activities for their members - probably rather more so than many other organisation that are currently closed save for virtual activities. It's pretty easy to set up a virtual church service over Zoom - much harder to have a virtual football match, or even a virtual choir where time delay makes virtual activity in real time pretty well impossible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on April 08, 2020, 02:13:09 PM
Hmm,

I think Johnson's "toughness" or desire to appear tough might, in part, be responsible for putting him in his current position in an ICU. He got sick and instead taking time off to give his body a chance to fight the disease, he carried on working.
True, although not unexpected - I think it is difficult for the leaders of any organisation in the current climate to accept that they need to step back rather than being front and centre.

More significantly, to my mind, was his failure to follow the advice, including advice of his own government. Until recently he was telling us all to work from home, to self distance in a packed room full of journalists in daily press conferences. And holding non-remote cabinet and other meetings, and still sitting in the commons.

Another thing that's winding me up: he was described as being in "good spirits" four times by three people in the space of five minutes on the BBC lunchtime news. Sorry, but I don't believe it. He's a human being in an ICU with a life threatening disease. |I would not be in good spirits in that situation. I don't  expect Johnson to be, nor would I think any  the worse of him if it was reported that he was quite unhappy.
I agree entirely and I also don't believe it. Late last week were told that he was was just having a bit of difficulty shaking off some mild symptoms but otherwise fine - then he was carted off to hospital.

We were told that being in hospital was just precautionary and for tests - and then he's carted of to intensive care.

Now we are being told he'd in good spirits, not on a ventilator etc - somehow I don't believe them - I suspect things are rather worse than we are being told and don't forget that the death rate for people his age entering intensive care with coronavirus is 46%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on April 08, 2020, 02:14:12 PM
In good spirits means stoned from morphine, fighting means seriously ill, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on April 08, 2020, 02:17:47 PM
In good spirits means stoned from morphine, fighting means seriously ill, etc.
And stable in intensive care means you are in a very bad way, just nor deteriorating (nor improving).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 08, 2020, 02:22:08 PM
Hmm,

I think Johnson's "toughness" or desire to appear tough might, in part, be responsible for putting him in his current position in an ICU. He got sick and instead taking time off to give his body a chance to fight the disease, he carried on working.

Another thing that's winding me up: he was described as being in "good spirits" four times by three people in the space of five minutes on the BBC lunchtime news. Sorry, but I don't believe it. He's a human being in an ICU with a life threatening disease. |I would not be in good spirits in that situation. I don't  expect Johnson to be, nor would I think any  the worse of him if it was reported that he was quite unhappy.
I agree, and I don't think the article disagrees at all so not sure what is meant here by 'Hmm'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on April 08, 2020, 02:25:09 PM
https://premierchristian.news/en/news/article/former-bishop-of-rochester-michael-nazir-ali-suggests-relaxing-the-rules-for-churches-over-easter?fbclid=IwAR2k71KgqfRb8VOmjZlP7b7yhpd7lRNATVbOshqvjehWCGGtVpzHgNYwVNU

What an idiot - what planet is he on if he thinks that churches should be re-opened for Easter.

Nazir Ali told Premier Christian News: "It's quite nuanced - I'm not saying that safe distancing should not be observed, but why discriminate against churches?

In what way are churches being discriminated against - last time I looked all non essential gatherings are banned - churches are in exactly the same position as sports events, theatres, cinemas, team sports, choirs, non-virtual exercise classes etc etc.
I heard him interviewed on five Live. The presenter who was interviewing should have been harder than she was, I think. There is no excuse for such irresponsible ideas  and suggestions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 08, 2020, 02:28:44 PM
I agree, and I don't think the article disagrees at all so not sure what is meant here by 'Hmm'

It was a "hmmm" meaning "interesting and perhaps it chimes with the following..." not a sceptical hmmm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 08, 2020, 02:39:27 PM
It was a "hmmm" meaning "interesting and perhaps it chimes with the following..." not a sceptical hmmm.
Thanks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on April 08, 2020, 02:47:10 PM
I heard him interviewed on five Live. The presenter who was interviewing should have been harder than she was, I think. There is no excuse for such irresponsible ideas  and suggestions.

The BBC has a policy of keeping challenges to religions to a minimum, if you think I'm wrong try to find anything on the BBC that looks remotely like a challenge to them, if you find one don't tell me about it, the surprise might be just that bit to much for me.

Regards, ippy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 08, 2020, 04:27:44 PM
From the BBC's live feed.



'US mayor's social distancing crackdown leads to his wife's arrest

An Illinois mayor directed local police to vigorously enforce the state's social distancing order, after reports of residents defying them.

"These are very serious times and I'm begging you to please stay at home," Alton mayor Brant Walker said on Friday.

Less than two days later, Alton police broke up a party at a local bar. The group was "clearly disregarding the executive order and public pleas for compliance", authorities said.

It turned out that Mayor Walker's wife was in attendance at the illicit party.

"I am embarrassed by this incident and apologise to the citizens of Alton," Walker said in a statement. "My wife is an adult capable of making her own decisions, and in this instance she showed a stunning lack of judgment'

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 08, 2020, 04:50:41 PM
From the BBC's live feed.



'US mayor's social distancing crackdown leads to his wife's arrest

An Illinois mayor directed local police to vigorously enforce the state's social distancing order, after reports of residents defying them.

"These are very serious times and I'm begging you to please stay at home," Alton mayor Brant Walker said on Friday.

Less than two days later, Alton police broke up a party at a local bar. The group was "clearly disregarding the executive order and public pleas for compliance", authorities said.

It turned out that Mayor Walker's wife was in attendance at the illicit party.

"I am embarrassed by this incident and apologise to the citizens of Alton," Walker said in a statement. "My wife is an adult capable of making her own decisions, and in this instance she showed a stunning lack of judgment'

Fair do's to the geezer. Didn't try to justify his missus' lack of judgement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 08, 2020, 07:02:06 PM
And stable in intensive care means you are in a very bad way, just nor deteriorating (nor improving).
just as an example , when i was in ICU couldn't tell them my own name for almost 3 weeks !
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 09, 2020, 09:38:37 AM
GREAT NEWS!
Today's 'Daily Mail' says that the lockdown will last for weeks to come, so it'll probably be over by Saturday!  ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 09, 2020, 10:21:22 AM
GREAT NEWS!
Today's 'Daily Mail' says that the lockdown will last for weeks to come, so it'll probably be over by Saturday!  ;D

A Saturday in the next millennium, if we are lucky! ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 09, 2020, 10:31:56 AM
GREAT NEWS!
Today's 'Daily Mail' says that the lockdown will last for weeks to come, so it'll probably be over by Saturday!  ;D

Or it will last months to come.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 09, 2020, 11:16:04 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-52227363

Words fail me! >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 09, 2020, 11:29:21 AM
if you think I'm wrong try to find anything on the BBC that looks remotely like a challenge to them,

Brian Cox on Infinite Monkey Cage.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on April 09, 2020, 11:31:08 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-52227363

Words fail me! >:(
There will always be idiots - I hope they are caught are appropriately dealt with.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 09, 2020, 12:01:10 PM
I hope they are caught...

Quote from: BBC
Police have made two arrests
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on April 09, 2020, 12:19:15 PM
GREAT NEWS!
Today's 'Daily Mail' says that the lockdown will last for weeks to come, so it'll probably be over by Saturday!  ;D

I wonder if the Mail is channelling those right-wing voices who are complaining that the lockdown hurts the economy too much.   Striking that they put "weeks" in caps, when it's more likely to be months.  I think they published Peter Hitchens' hymn to capitalism, worth sacrificing a few hundred thousand old people to.  The right wing use the phrase "house arrest".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 09, 2020, 12:40:39 PM

Honestly don't understand the justification for this.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/mps-given-an-extra-10000-to-work-from-home/09/04/?fbclid=IwAR3I6cvNh9aqzHKsE6Cp5OniD_tMX15Kq-DREEJcx2fXjPEgW5to9UDZYx0
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 09, 2020, 01:30:31 PM
Honestly don't understand the justification for this.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/mps-given-an-extra-10000-to-work-from-home/09/04/?fbclid=IwAR3I6cvNh9aqzHKsE6Cp5OniD_tMX15Kq-DREEJcx2fXjPEgW5to9UDZYx0

Nor do I. :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 09, 2020, 01:47:38 PM
From the BBC rolling news - job losses on this scale are frightening


'A further 6.6 million jobless claims in the US
More staggering unemployment figures are coming out of the United States.
Some 6.6 million people filed for unemployment benefits last week. That takes the total number of claims in the last three weeks to more than 16 million - truly unprecedented figures.
To put these numbers in context - nine million jobs were lost in the 2008 financial crisis over a much, much longer period.'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on April 09, 2020, 02:09:55 PM


It is possible that some terrorist outfits are using the corona crisis for their own ends.  They don't mind being infected or dying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: torridon on April 09, 2020, 02:21:17 PM
Sriram, how are people coping in India ? I can't imagine how poor people on daily wages are surviving with no income since Mr Modi imposed a lock down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on April 09, 2020, 02:49:56 PM
Sriram, how are people coping in India ? I can't imagine how poor people on daily wages are surviving with no income since Mr Modi imposed a lock down.


Thanks for asking torri.   We are doing fairly well as a country. Three weeks of lock down and perhaps an extension for a further 15 days. But most people seem to be coping very well.   The govt has also identified containment zones and is managing to control the situation fairly well.  Its not alarming as yet.

As I have written earlier....in India the virus doesn't seem to be behaving in the same way that it has in many countries in the Temperate zone.  Trump is happy that India has agreed to his 'request' for  supply of hydroxychloroquine.  ;)

There was recently a crisis where thousands of people belonging to a muslim sect gathered together (speeches were delivered against the lockdown) and have now traveled far and wide into the country. Many of them are suspected of being positive and could be spreading the infection elsewhere.  There have been cases of such people spitting on others, including policemen, selling veggies on which they have spat and so on. This has raised doubts that perhaps some groups affiliated to terrorist organisations are taking advantage of the corona crisis and are spreading the infection on purpose. 

About migrant workers....many govt and private organisations have come forward and the workers are being provided food and shelter. It is indeed a problem for daily wagers but the govt and many NGO's are arranging for monetary help.  Most of us are donating money and other forms of help.

But the lock down cannot be avoided.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 09, 2020, 04:19:30 PM
Honestly don't understand the justification for this.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/mps-given-an-extra-10000-to-work-from-home/09/04/?fbclid=IwAR3I6cvNh9aqzHKsE6Cp5OniD_tMX15Kq-DREEJcx2fXjPEgW5to9UDZYx0


Having looked into a bit more, I think that there is some justification as it is about  ramping up support for expenses in a time of demand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 09, 2020, 04:47:39 PM

Having looked into a bit more, I think that there is some justification as it is about  ramping up support for expenses in a time of demand.
If they need a bit more support a truss and surgical boots should be offered to all MPs After all, they are very special .
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 09, 2020, 04:51:04 PM
If they need a bit more support a truss and surgical boots should be offered to all MPs After all, they are very special .
  The demand is from constituents, and the support is for that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on April 09, 2020, 05:18:32 PM
Brian Cox on Infinite Monkey Cage.

Thought for the Day, on the Today programme BBC radio 4 early morning six days a week, the non-religious beliefs are banned from this slot, the BBC's most obvious bias for religion, anyway you must know about that and they're not going to make it obvious just how much they avoid having religion challenged on their airwaves, it is little and often aligned with its policy of never missing.

Clever, and you wont see it if you've made your mind up to not see it.

ippy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 09, 2020, 05:23:39 PM
brilliant!

https://youtu.be/lr_tEdQvFcc
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: torridon on April 09, 2020, 05:46:07 PM

Thanks for asking torri.   We are doing fairly well as a country. Three weeks of lock down and perhaps an extension for a further 15 days. But most people seem to be coping very well.   The govt has also identified containment zones and is managing to control the situation fairly well.  Its not alarming as yet.

As I have written earlier....in India the virus doesn't seem to be behaving in the same way that it has in many countries in the Temperate zone.  Trump is happy that India has agreed to his 'request' for  supply of hydroxychloroquine.  ;)

There was recently a crisis where thousands of people belonging to a muslim sect gathered together (speeches were delivered against the lockdown) and have now traveled far and wide into the country. Many of them are suspected of being positive and could be spreading the infection elsewhere.  There have been cases of such people spitting on others, including policemen, selling veggies on which they have spat and so on. This has raised doubts that perhaps some groups affiliated to terrorist organisations are taking advantage of the corona crisis and are spreading the infection on purpose. 

About migrant workers....many govt and private organisations have come forward and the workers are being provided food and shelter. It is indeed a problem for daily wagers but the govt and many NGO's are arranging for monetary help.  Most of us are donating money and other forms of help.

But the lock down cannot be avoided.

My first thought on seeing the lock down in India was that India has a young demographic, most people would recover from a viral infection but Modi would kill them with joblessness-induced malnutrition instead.  Maybe daily wagers jobs' will still be there to resume once the lock down is over and it is just a question of support networks during the period of lock down.  Maybe it is more a western thing that people will find their jobs have disappeared after the lock down as many businesses go bankrupt.  Overall though I have a sinking feeling that the economic damage of lock downs is going to lead to a global recession, probably the worst since the great depression of the 1930s and that will drive many millions of people who were just about getting by into destitution and poverty and that might prove in the end to kill more people than if we had carried on working and suffered some herd immunity to grow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 09, 2020, 06:01:04 PM
Thought for the Day, on the Today programme BBC radio 4 early morning six days a week, the non-religious beliefs are banned from this slot, the BBC's most obvious bias for religion, anyway you must know about that and they're not going to make it obvious just how much they avoid having religion challenged on their airwaves, it is little and often aligned with its policy of never missing.

Clever, and you wont see it if you've made your mind up to not see it.

ippy.
You asked for an example. You were given one. You lose.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 09, 2020, 07:22:45 PM
Thought for the Day, on the Today programme BBC radio 4 early morning six days a week, the non-religious beliefs are banned from this slot, the BBC's most obvious bias for religion, anyway you must know about that and they're not going to make it obvious just how much they avoid having religion challenged on their airwaves, it is little and often aligned with its policy of never missing.

Clever, and you wont see it if you've made your mind up to not see it.

ippy.

So what? You just asked for examples of people on the BBC bashing religion. I gave you one.

ETA. Ninja’d by Nearly Sane
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on April 09, 2020, 08:58:11 PM
So what? You just asked for examples of people on the BBC bashing religion. I gave you one.

ETA. Ninja’d by Nearly Sane

I can totally understand scepticism in this area.

ippy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on April 10, 2020, 07:57:05 AM
My first thought on seeing the lock down in India was that India has a young demographic, most people would recover from a viral infection but Modi would kill them with joblessness-induced malnutrition instead.  Maybe daily wagers jobs' will still be there to resume once the lock down is over and it is just a question of support networks during the period of lock down.  Maybe it is more a western thing that people will find their jobs have disappeared after the lock down as many businesses go bankrupt.  Overall though I have a sinking feeling that the economic damage of lock downs is going to lead to a global recession, probably the worst since the great depression of the 1930s and that will drive many millions of people who were just about getting by into destitution and poverty and that might prove in the end to kill more people than if we had carried on working and suffered some herd immunity to grow.



The workers are being taken care of.  India has seen lot of poverty over the centuries/decades and has largely come out of it. We are now in a much better position to handle it. The system is geared for it. There is lot of resilience.

However, economic issues are not the priority now.  Its about controlling the virus.

All of us have seen lots of economic issues over the years and have handled it. Japan had a nuclear bomb dropped on it but survived and thrived. World wars, depression, recessions, pandemics, natural calamities....and much more has been seen in this world and we have lived and managed.

So...not to worry.   :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on April 10, 2020, 08:23:16 AM


Just in today...

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/coronavirus-terrorists-may-use-covid-19-window-to-strike-un-security-council-2209307?pfrom=home-topscroll

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: torridon on April 10, 2020, 08:42:18 AM
Sometimes a crisis can bring out the best in people.  In South Africa, rival gangs that normally terrorise their neighbourhoods with extortion rackets and drug dealing have turned to community support, using their networks to deliver food to homes.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-africa-52205158/how-coronavirus-inspired-a-gangland-truce-in-south-africa (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-africa-52205158/how-coronavirus-inspired-a-gangland-truce-in-south-africa)

No doubt after it is all over, they'll go back to feuding and racketeering.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 10, 2020, 09:08:37 AM


The workers are being taken care of.  India has seen lot of poverty over the centuries/decades and has largely come out of it. We are now in a much better position to handle it. The system is geared for it. There is lot of resilience.

However, economic issues are not the priority now.  Its about controlling the virus.

All of us have seen lots of economic issues over the years and have handled it. Japan had a nuclear bomb dropped on it but survived and thrived. World wars, depression, recessions, pandemics, natural calamities....and much more has been seen in this world and we have lived and managed.

So...not to worry.   :)

What an uncaring philosophy! I am deeply worried for my friend in intensive care on a ventilator.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on April 10, 2020, 12:25:53 PM
Japan had a nuclear bomb dropped on it but survived and thrived. World wars, depression, recessions, pandemics, natural calamities....and much more has been seen in this world and we have lived and managed.

250,000 dead as a result of two nukes.

Quote
So...not to worry.   :)

Wow.

Also your description of poverty in India.
" India had 73 million people living in extreme poverty which makes up 5.5% of its total population"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_India

I suspect Sriram isn't one those 73 million, so he doesn't worry.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 10, 2020, 01:04:58 PM
From the BBC news feed


'A doctor who warned the prime minister about a lack of personal protective equipment (PPE) for NHS workers has died after contracting coronavirus.

Consultant urologist Abdul Mabud Chowdhury, 53, died at Queen's Hospital in Romford, east London, on Wednesday.

Five days before he was admitted to hospital, Dr Chowdhury had appealed for "appropriate PPE and remedies" to "protect ourselves and our families".

His son told the BBC his father was a "kind and compassionate hero".'

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 10, 2020, 01:40:20 PM
From the BBC news feed


'A doctor who warned the prime minister about a lack of personal protective equipment (PPE) for NHS workers has died after contracting coronavirus.

Consultant urologist Abdul Mabud Chowdhury, 53, died at Queen's Hospital in Romford, east London, on Wednesday.

Five days before he was admitted to hospital, Dr Chowdhury had appealed for "appropriate PPE and remedies" to "protect ourselves and our families".

His son told the BBC his father was a "kind and compassionate hero".'

So very, very sad. :o

It is a pity Boris didn't heed the doctor's warning, he might not have contracted the virus and become seriously ill, if he had been sensible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 10, 2020, 03:09:17 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52241221

New York state are having to bury bodies in a mass grave!

New York state now has more coronavirus cases than any single country.
The state's confirmed caseload of Covid-19 is almost 162,000, of whom 7,067 have died, according to Johns Hopkins University. :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SweetPea on April 10, 2020, 03:23:23 PM
Something amazing and courageous: while recovering from a hip operation and skin cancer, 99yr old Tom Moore is walking 100 laps of his driveway (which is fairly lengthy) before his 100th birthday at the end of the month to raise money for the NHS. Bravo!!

Enjoy:

https://twitter.com/BBCBreakfast/status/1248516062364106753
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 10, 2020, 03:41:36 PM
Something amazing and courageous: while recovering from a hip operation and skin cancer, 99yr old Tom Moore is walking 100 laps of his driveway (which is fairly lengthy) before his 100th birthday at the end of the month to raise money for the NHS. Bravo!!

Enjoy:

https://twitter.com/BBCBreakfast/status/1248516062364106753

Good for him, although hopefully he doesn't overdo it. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on April 10, 2020, 06:10:16 PM
250,000 dead as a result of two nukes.

Wow.

Also your description of poverty in India.
" India had 73 million people living in extreme poverty which makes up 5.5% of its total population"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_India

I suspect Sriram isn't one those 73 million, so he doesn't worry.
 

I note the Japanese have a museum dedicated to the info about the atomic bombs, there may be two of them one in each town bombed I don't know, but I did wonder if they have set up some similar museums acknowledging how they performed their works on the so called 'Burma Road' although it was in fact a railway, preferably museums set up next door to their atomic bomb museums, just to make things more even handed and more easily understood by all.

ippy.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 10, 2020, 06:16:11 PM
I note the Japanese have a museum dedicated to the info about the atomic bombs, there may be two of them one in each town bombed I don't know, but I did wonder if they have set up some similar museums acknowledging how they performed their works on the so called 'Burma Road' although it was in fact a railway, preferably museums set up next door to their atomic bomb museums, just to make things more even handed and more easily understood by all.

ippy.
I take it we have one for the Dresden bombings?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 10, 2020, 06:39:16 PM
I take it we have one for the Dresden bombings?
Yeah, it's next door to the museum of the Pacifist
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 10, 2020, 07:06:11 PM
Yeah, it's next door to the museum of the Pacifist
We don't need one. The piles of the dead are what qualifies for museums.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on April 10, 2020, 07:25:10 PM
I note the Japanese have a museum dedicated to the info about the atomic bombs, there may be two of them one in each town bombed I don't know,

Hiroshima is a city I know quite well. There is indeed a Peace Museum - set in the Peace Park just across the river from the epicentre of the nuclear explosion and adjacent the Aioi Bridge which was the target for the bomb attack. It is not "dedicated to the info about the atomic bombs" but is a record of the events in one day which saw the eventual deaths of perhaps 180,000 people. I have visited it on four occasions - each time being more moved than I can possibly explain. Its primary purpose is to inform and warn and to try to avoid any such incident occurring again.

What the HELL this has to do with coronavirus only you can say, Ippy.

I do think that it is true that - unlike Germany - Japan has never quite come to terms with its role in WW2. However, the relevance of your post is beyond me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 10, 2020, 09:08:01 PM
So now we are having a Herculean attempt at getting PPE, as opposed  to planning for this, or doing this 3 months ago, and not lying in the interim that everything was fine! People on the front line will have died, and will die because of the incompetence of this govt 
 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52248423
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on April 11, 2020, 12:36:48 AM
Hiroshima is a city I know quite well. There is indeed a Peace Museum - set in the Peace Park just across the river from the epicentre of the nuclear explosion and adjacent the Aioi Bridge which was the target for the bomb attack. It is not "dedicated to the info about the atomic bombs" but is a record of the events in one day which saw the eventual deaths of perhaps 180,000 people. I have visited it on four occasions - each time being more moved than I can possibly explain. Its primary purpose is to inform and warn and to try to avoid any such incident occurring again.

What the HELL this has to do with coronavirus only you can say, Ippy.

I do think that it is true that - unlike Germany - Japan has never quite come to terms with its role in WW2. However, the relevance of your post is beyond me.

Have another look at jakswan's post H H, the first line.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on April 11, 2020, 08:01:29 AM
ippy, I know your post was not directed at me but do you mean post #1421?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 11, 2020, 08:47:28 AM
So now we are having a Herculean attempt at getting PPE, as opposed  to planning for this, or doing this 3 months ago, and not lying in the interim that everything was fine! People on the front line will have died, and will die because of the incompetence of this govt 
 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52248423

It's incontrovertible that the minister speaking, the PM and government is the best ever appointed and can do no wrong, so everything else is rationalized  around that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Enki on April 11, 2020, 10:29:19 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52241221

New York state are having to bury bodies in a mass grave!

New York state now has more coronavirus cases than any single country.
The state's confirmed caseload of Covid-19 is almost 162,000, of whom 7,067 have died, according to Johns Hopkins University. :o

Nothing new about this except the number of burials has been ramped up because of the  deaths from this pandemic as your BBC link makes clear.  Bodies have regularly been interred in mass graves there for at least for the last 150 years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on April 11, 2020, 10:38:14 AM
I think there are plenty of fresh mortuaries appearing in the UK, I bet that won't be on the front page of the Sun.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Enki on April 11, 2020, 10:54:42 AM
I think there are plenty of fresh mortuaries appearing in the UK, I bet that won't be on the front page of the Sun.

Don't know about the front page, Wiggs(I never buy any newspaper) but look at this, seemingly produced by journalists(is that what they are called?)

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11373868/morgue-london-nhs-nightingale-coronavirus-hospital/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on April 11, 2020, 10:58:29 AM
I'd just like to mention that I have done 20 laps of my back and forth this morning, time 45 minutes, that's two more than previous  best. Wearing slightly lighter-weight clothes has probably helped a little bit.

I shall now try and concentrate a bit more on the Cryptic crossword, although I don't like the first clue much!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on April 11, 2020, 10:59:40 AM
Don't know about the front page, Wiggs(I never buy any newspaper) but look at this, seemingly produced by journalists(is that what they are called?)

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11373868/morgue-london-nhs-nightingale-coronavirus-hospital/

Yes, I didn't see that.  I think there are new mortuaries all over the country.   With a 1000 deaths a day, they are needed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 11, 2020, 11:20:02 AM
From the BBC live feed - what an unmitigated prick, Hancock is!


'There have been cases where medical workers have used more personal protective equipment (PPE) than necessary, the UK health secretary has said, after a doctor's union warned that many doctors were not getting the equipment they need.

The British Medical Association said doctors faced "heart-breaking decisions" over whether to carry on without proper protection.

Matt Hancock told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that there was enough personal protective equipment to go around if it was used in line with guidance.

"I don't want to impugn blame on people who have used more PPE than the guidelines suggest because I understand the difficulties in the circumstances," he said.

"What I would say it is very important to use the right PPE and not overuse it."

The health secretary confirmed that 19 NHS workers had died since the start of the outbreak.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer tweeted: "It is quite frankly insulting to imply front line staff are wasting PPE."

Dame Donna Kinnair, general secretary of the Royal College of Nursing, told Today that no piece of PPE could ever be "more precious a resource than a healthcare worker's life, a nurse's life, a doctor's life".'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: torridon on April 11, 2020, 11:59:20 AM
No doubt the current pandemic will see the anti-vaxxers quietly queuing up for their anti-coronavirus shot as soon as it becomes available. Conspiracy theories are for armchair idiots who are cushioned from real life. Seeing actual people suffer and actually die will be a wake up call for science deniers everywhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 11, 2020, 12:05:25 PM
No doubt the current pandemic will see the anti-vaxxers quietly queuing up for their anti-coronavirus shot as soon as it becomes available. Conspiracy theories are for armchair idiots who are cushioned from real life. Seeing actual people suffer and actually die will be a wake up call for science deniers everywhere.
I fear not. There is a lot of stuff about this being a huge vaccination conspiracy which will lead to everyone being injected with microchips. Apparently the whole thing is Bill Gates' idea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 11, 2020, 12:17:54 PM
From the BBC live feed - what an unmitigated prick, Hancock is!


'There have been cases where medical workers have used more personal protective equipment (PPE) than necessary, the UK health secretary has said, after a doctor's union warned that many doctors were not getting the equipment they need.

The British Medical Association said doctors faced "heart-breaking decisions" over whether to carry on without proper protection.

Matt Hancock told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that there was enough personal protective equipment to go around if it was used in line with guidance.

"I don't want to impugn blame on people who have used more PPE than the guidelines suggest because I understand the difficulties in the circumstances," he said.

"What I would say it is very important to use the right PPE and not overuse it."

The health secretary confirmed that 19 NHS workers had died since the start of the outbreak.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer tweeted: "It is quite frankly insulting to imply front line staff are wasting PPE."

Dame Donna Kinnair, general secretary of the Royal College of Nursing, told Today that no piece of PPE could ever be "more precious a resource than a healthcare worker's life, a nurse's life, a doctor's life".'

It seems sensible to me, if your quote is accurate. Why would you want to waste PPE since it's in such demand  at the moment?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 11, 2020, 12:19:40 PM
No doubt the current pandemic will see the anti-vaxxers quietly queuing up for their anti-coronavirus shot as soon as it becomes available.
Actually, I think a significant proportion of them will refuse the vaccine.

And that will be a problem because the disease is so infectious we are going to need a pretty high coverage for it to be effective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 11, 2020, 12:20:32 PM
It seems sensible to me, if your quote is accurate. Why would you want to waste PPE since it's in such demand  at the moment?
Because there is no evidence of it being wasted. Because it's blaming any shortage in an accusation that he isn't evidencing. You want to support the govts mistakes and lies that have lead to deaths of front line staff then on you go.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on April 11, 2020, 12:37:36 PM
Have another look at jakswan's post H H, the first line.

Do you mean jakswan's own contribution or the post to which he was replying? I'm assuming the former.

I was referring to the event on 6 August 1945 - not the second explosion three days later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 11, 2020, 01:00:18 PM
Because there is no evidence of it being wasted.
Matt Hancock seems to think there is. Are you better informed than he is?

Quote
Because it's blaming any shortage in an accusation that he isn't evidencing.
He's not blaming people for the shortage. He's just pointing out a fact: if you use more of a resource in short supply, it is a bad thing.


Quote
You want to support the govts mistakes and lies that have lead to deaths of front line staff then on you go.
It saves lives to stop people from using more PPE than they need.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on April 11, 2020, 01:01:06 PM
Yes, I didn't see that.  I think there are new mortuaries all over the country.   With a 1000 deaths a day, they are needed.

Not really making a point here but total deaths in England and Wales.

03-Jan-20   10-Jan-20   17-Jan-20   24-Jan-20   31-Jan-20   07-Feb-20   14-Feb-20   21-Feb-20   28-Feb-20   06-Mar-20   13-Mar-20   20-Mar-20   27-Mar-20
12,254   14,058   12,990   11,856   11,612   10,986   10,944   10,841   10,816   10,895   11,019   10,645   11,141

from ONS, https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on April 11, 2020, 01:25:02 PM
Matt Hancock seems to think there is. Are you better informed than he is?
He's not blaming people for the shortage. He's just pointing out a fact: if you use more of a resource in short supply, it is a bad thing.

It saves lives to stop people from using more PPE than they need.

It saves lives to ensure that every patient is greeted by a nurse or doctor wearing a fresh pair of gloves, a fresh gown and a fresh mask.

Conservatism is a political philosophy which knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 11, 2020, 01:37:10 PM
HH

proud to be smug ! ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on April 11, 2020, 02:19:46 PM
Not really making a point here but total deaths in England and Wales.

03-Jan-20   10-Jan-20   17-Jan-20   24-Jan-20   31-Jan-20   07-Feb-20   14-Feb-20   21-Feb-20   28-Feb-20   06-Mar-20   13-Mar-20   20-Mar-20   27-Mar-20
12,254   14,058   12,990   11,856   11,612   10,986   10,944   10,841   10,816   10,895   11,019   10,645   11,141

from ONS, https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

Those statistics ignore exponential growth.  Without the lockdown, how many deaths?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Enki on April 11, 2020, 02:59:07 PM
From the BBC live feed - what an unmitigated prick, Hancock is!


'There have been cases where medical workers have used more personal protective equipment (PPE) than necessary, the UK health secretary has said, after a doctor's union warned that many doctors were not getting the equipment they need.

The British Medical Association said doctors faced "heart-breaking decisions" over whether to carry on without proper protection.

Matt Hancock told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that there was enough personal protective equipment to go around if it was used in line with guidance.

"I don't want to impugn blame on people who have used more PPE than the guidelines suggest because I understand the difficulties in the circumstances," he said.

"What I would say it is very important to use the right PPE and not overuse it."

The health secretary confirmed that 19 NHS workers had died since the start of the outbreak.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer tweeted: "It is quite frankly insulting to imply front line staff are wasting PPE."

Dame Donna Kinnair, general secretary of the Royal College of Nursing, told Today that no piece of PPE could ever be "more precious a resource than a healthcare worker's life, a nurse's life, a doctor's life".'

I don't know whether Matt Hancock is right or not because I am not privy to any of the evidence or advice he has, but a couple of points to make here:

Firstly my wife, who was a nurse and then a phlebotamist in the NHS for many years, has continually criticised the NHS for its sheer wastage of equipment. Last year I had two operations for replacement hips(both successful) and I still have the crutches loaned to me by the NHS as well as the special toilet seat loaned to me as I was recovering. On enquiring at the hospital where these operations were done. I was told to get rid of the crutches and the toilet seat contraption as they didn't want them back!

Secondly, the logistics of ensuring that the many thousands of locations where all kinds of PPE are needed are continually and fully stocked is a huge problem. I don't doubt that mistakes have been made and reasonable criticism is, to my mind, quite acceptable. However it seems to me that any politician of any party would struggle under the problems that this pandemic has brought up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 11, 2020, 03:25:36 PM
The BBC medical drama Holby City has donated fully working ventilators from its set at Elstree to be used in London's new NHS Nightingale Hospital.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 11, 2020, 03:28:36 PM
Not really making a point here but total deaths in England and Wales.

03-Jan-20   10-Jan-20   17-Jan-20   24-Jan-20   31-Jan-20   07-Feb-20   14-Feb-20   21-Feb-20   28-Feb-20   06-Mar-20   13-Mar-20   20-Mar-20   27-Mar-20
12,254   14,058   12,990   11,856   11,612   10,986   10,944   10,841   10,816   10,895   11,019   10,645   11,141

from ONS, https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

The important information on that page is in the notes, not the raw figures to Apr this year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 11, 2020, 03:39:08 PM
I don't know whether Matt Hancock is right or not because I am not privy to any of the evidence or advice he has, but a couple of points to make here:

Firstly my wife, who was a nurse and then a phlebotamist in the NHS for many years, has continually criticised the NHS for its sheer wastage of equipment. Last year I had two operations for replacement hips(both successful) and I still have the crutches loaned to me by the NHS as well as the special toilet seat loaned to me as I was recovering. On enquiring at the hospital where these operations were done. I was told to get rid of the crutches and the toilet seat contraption as they didn't want them back!

No doubt wastage in the NHS has been and is a significant problem - which the regular management re-organisations, attempting to solve it, have only exacerbated. But, there does not seem to have been any indication or evidence that any staff have been wasting ppe in the current crisis or that the procedures would allow them too. 

Quote
Secondly, the logistics of ensuring that the many thousands of locations where all kinds of PPE are needed are continually and fully stocked is a huge problem. I don't doubt that mistakes have been made and reasonable criticism is, to my mind, quite acceptable. However it seems to me that any politician of any party would struggle under the problems that this pandemic has brought up.

Of course it is logistically difficult - but even more so when planning exercises to ensure that the NHS is prepared for epidemics are ignored - talk about waste! Germany does not seem to be struggling in the way we are.

   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 11, 2020, 03:42:33 PM
The BBC medical drama Holby City has donated fully working ventilators from its set at Elstree to be used in London's new NHS Nightingale Hospital.

Did you see this earlier?

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/coronavirus-medical-fetish-site-gives-scrubs-nhs-hospital-a4402506.html

"A medical fetish site said it has donated its entire stock of disposable scrubs to an NHS hospital.

MedFet UK, which describes itself as "the only online store 100 per cent dedicated to Medical Fetish, Kink and Roleplay," said in a tweet that it had been contacted by the NHS, who were trying to find protective equipment and clothing."
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 11, 2020, 03:46:21 PM
It saves lives to ensure that every patient is greeted by a nurse or doctor wearing a fresh pair of gloves, a fresh gown and a fresh mask.
Did Matt Hancock suggest otherwise?

No.

He said don't waste the gear.

Quote
Conservatism is a political philosophy which knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
A lot of people seem to be seeing everything through the lens of their hatred of Conservatism.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 11, 2020, 03:53:11 PM
Those statistics ignore exponential growth.  Without the lockdown, how many deaths?
That wasn't the point. He was presenting the figures to give some context as to what an extra 1,000 deaths per day means in the context of needing mortuaries (at least that's how I read it). In a normal year about 2,000 people die every day in the UK, so coronavirus is currently adding 50% more bodies to be dealt with. That's why we need temporary mortuaries.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on April 11, 2020, 04:05:50 PM
Did Matt Hancock suggest otherwise?

No.

He said don't waste the gear.
A lot of people seem to be seeing everything through the lens of their hatred of Conservatism.
Yes, that has been very noticeable. I'd like to know why they think others, or they themselves, would have done better. Yes, perhaps some things might have been, but maybe more would not. It's impossible to know, and hindsight is easy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Enki on April 11, 2020, 04:11:33 PM
No doubt wastage in the NHS has been and is a significant problem - which the regular management re-organisations, attempting to solve it, have only exacerbated. But, there does not seem to have been any indication or evidence that any staff have been wasting ppe in the current crisis or that the procedures would allow them too. 

Of course it is logistically difficult - but even more so when planning exercises to ensure that the NHS is prepared for epidemics are ignored - talk about waste! Germany does not seem to be struggling in the way we are.

   

As regards your last point, fair enough but remember Germany banned any PPE exports on March 4th in order to make sure it had enough. Perhaps we should have done the same earlier. I accept that is a valid criticism.

However, remember that we are not the only country which has had problems.

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/03-03-2020-shortage-of-personal-protective-equipment-endangering-health-workers-worldwide
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 11, 2020, 04:21:46 PM
As regards your last point, fair enough but remember Germany banned any PPE exports on March 4th in order to make sure it had enough. Perhaps we should have done the same earlier. I accept that is a valid criticism.

However, remember that we are not the only country which has had problems.

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/03-03-2020-shortage-of-personal-protective-equipment-endangering-health-workers-worldwide

We also had a govt saying they had enough supplies when they were being told by front line staff that they didn't. They were either incompetent, lying, or both
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 11, 2020, 04:52:21 PM
Fresh Guinness delivered to your door

https://www.irishpost.com/news/belfast-pub-delivering-pints-freshly-poured-guinness-door-door-lockdown-183328?fbclid=IwAR0dMgiZbfMUPZXWRfoV_KD2e9ThT51UnqHMc2Ydt9FS8jP4CROL_irGVL8
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 11, 2020, 04:55:38 PM
Did Matt Hancock suggest otherwise?

No.

He said don't waste the gear.
A lot of people seem to be seeing everything through the lens of their hatred of Conservatism.
I totally agree with you jezza .
that could be a first ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 11, 2020, 05:20:04 PM
...
A lot of people seem to be seeing everything through the lens of their hatred of Conservatism.

A criticism is either valid or not, don't see why political outlook would matter. In fact there is an underlying tendency for people to want to believe that their government is trustworthy and to have confidence in it. If there is hatred, why assume it is the reason for criticism, rather than  resulting from observation of previous performance?   

I agree with this chap (who does admit to being a lefty):
https://medium.com/@timpetherick/uk-covid-19-lockdown-day-17-the-british-media-portray-european-deaths-as-apocalyptic-and-british-4655bc8d50be

If anything, the media spin is to try and make the government look half-competent - switching focus onto Boris' recovery or feel-good activities during lockdown stories.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on April 11, 2020, 05:24:31 PM
Yes, 1000 deaths in Italy, is a tsunami, 1000 in UK, but Boris getting better!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 11, 2020, 05:25:06 PM
I totally agree with you jezza .
that could be a first ?


Of course the BMA and Royal College of Nurses are just whinging. Nice to see you support the man whose incompetence and lying have put your daughter at risk.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8208991/Health-Secretary-Matt-Hancock-tells-medics-use-PPE-patients.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 11, 2020, 05:38:12 PM


Of course the BMA and Royal College of Nurses are just whinging. Nice to see you support the man whose incompetence and lying have put your daughter at risk.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8208991/Health-Secretary-Matt-Hancock-tells-medics-use-PPE-patients.html
actually it's my daughter -in -law to be accurate, saney

wasting and abusing equipment in the NHS is endemic,  it has become 'normal practice' , I hope you have never been in hospital long enough to witness it .
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on April 11, 2020, 05:52:46 PM
That wasn't the point. He was presenting the figures to give some context as to what an extra 1,000 deaths per day means in the context of needing mortuaries (at least that's how I read it). In a normal year about 2,000 people die every day in the UK, so coronavirus is currently adding 50% more bodies to be dealt with. That's why we need temporary mortuaries.

Yes that was the context.

It might not mean an extra 1,000 deaths per day, e.g. under 44 deaths are potentially going to be lower than normal perhaps?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 11, 2020, 05:57:36 PM
actually it's my daughter -in -law to be accurate, saney

wasting and abusing equipment in the NHS is endemic,  it has become 'normal practice' , I hope you have never been in hospital long enough to witness it .

And  you think that explains the lack of PPE? Because obviously you trust Hancock rather than front line workers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 11, 2020, 06:10:07 PM
actually it's my daughter -in -law to be accurate, saney

wasting and abusing equipment in the NHS is endemic,  it has become 'normal practice' , I hope you have never been in hospital long enough to witness it .
and saney if you don't agree i don't really care , this is all i have to say

https://youtu.be/mEhkM3X_teQ

😘😘😘
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 11, 2020, 06:21:08 PM
And  you think that explains the lack of PPE? Because obviously you trust Hancock rather than front line workers.

do you spend hours in bed unable to sleep every night trying to eliminate the 'six degrees of separation' ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 11, 2020, 06:23:59 PM
btw

good old Les was a delight at one of our family weddings , such a lovely unassuming bloke
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 11, 2020, 06:24:33 PM
and saney if you don't agree i don't really care , this is all i have to say

https://youtu.be/mEhkM3X_teQ

😘😘😘
Of their's I prefer this which I think should be the Scottish national anthem

https://youtu.be/ytii7-bUxuk
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 11, 2020, 06:27:24 PM
do you spend hours in bed unable to sleep every night trying to eliminate the 'six degrees of separation' ?
Whereas you wake up at 2.37, to realise you have been supporting an incompetent liar whose actions may lead to the death of your daughter-in-law, but then think 'hey, It's only a mask for me' and fall asleep at 2.40.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 11, 2020, 06:32:42 PM
Of their's I prefer this which I think should be the Scottish national anthem

https://youtu.be/ytii7-bUxuk
well I can't fault you there pal

they have my admiration , their contribution to pop culture is to be celebrated , I trust Scotland is proud?

I spent time with them , I admired their commitment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 11, 2020, 06:38:17 PM
Whereas you wake up at 2.37, to realise you have been supporting an incompetent liar whose actions may lead to the death of your daughter-in-law, but then think 'hey, It's only a mask for me' and fall asleep at 2.40.
fuck me !  DON'T
 , my son is almost at breaking point too . Fortunately she now has 7 days off work


but my previous post still applies
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 11, 2020, 06:40:17 PM
fuck me !  DON'T
 , my son is almost at breaking point too . Fortunately she now has 7 days off work


but my previous post still applies

Then so does mine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 11, 2020, 06:41:46 PM
well I can't fault you there pal

they have my admiration , their contribution to pop culture is to be celebrated , I trust Scotland is proud?

I spent time with them , I admired their commitment.
Sadly I don't think we celebrate them enough.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 11, 2020, 06:48:52 PM
Then so does mine.
today the sun and the gin has mellowed me a bit , and the fact she is OFF work for a while and i can see them both enjoying each others company outside in the fresh air sitting on their balcony overlooking the Dales ,renders me unable to argue stupidities on here any more today

 I am glad for them , I am pleased you are well too 
so today just be glad to be alive old chap ,
best wishes
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 11, 2020, 08:41:05 PM
today the sun and the gin has mellowed me a bit , and the fact she is OFF work for a while and i can see them both enjoying each others company outside in the fresh air sitting on their balcony overlooking the Dales ,renders me unable to argue stupidities on here any more today

 I am glad for them , I am pleased you are well too 
so today just be glad to be alive old chap ,
best wishes
Lovely post. Just had a virtual planning drinking session with some friends we were due to be on holiday with mid May about what we do next.

Take care.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 11, 2020, 08:54:25 PM
A criticism is either valid or not, don't see why political outlook would matter. In fact there is an underlying tendency for people to want to believe that their government is trustworthy and to have confidence in it.
That might be true of general society, but it’s not true of some people on this forum.



Quote
If there is hatred, why assume it is the reason for criticism, rather than  resulting from observation of previous performance?   
Because people are trying to crucify Matt Hancock for saying something that is common sense: don’t waste stuff that is in short supply.
Quote
If anything, the media spin is to try and make the government look half-competent - switching focus onto Boris' recovery or feel-good activities during lockdown stories.
 
Yeah, it must be spin because in my mind there is no way the government could be half competent /sarcasm 

And you know what? I’d really like some feel good stories right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 11, 2020, 08:56:59 PM
That might be true of general society, but it’s not true of some people on this forum.


Because people are trying to crucify Matt Hancock for saying something that is common sense: don’t waste stuff that is in short supply. Yeah, it must be spin because in my mind there is no way the government could be half competent /sarcasm 

And you know what? I’d really like some feel good stories right now.
So basically you are saying because you don't want people to be dying because of the govt, you will just deny it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 11, 2020, 09:00:22 PM
So basically you are saying because you don't want people to be dying because of the govt, you will just deny it.
Stop with this bullshit.

Wanting a feel good story is not the same as denying the absolute horror of the situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 11, 2020, 09:09:16 PM
Stop with this bullshit.

Wanting a feel good story is not the same as denying the absolute horror of the situation.
It exactly is that if it affects your inability to criticise the failings of the govt. Stop apologising for bad planning that has lead to the death of people on the front line.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 11, 2020, 10:39:21 PM
"I'm sorry if people feel like there have been failings." From Priti Patel this evening. Not an apology but an accusation that the BMA, the RCN are liars. That any front line staff who think they didn't have sufficient PPE are liars. But that's ok for those who eant to dismiss front line staff as whingers, and people wasting resources. It doesn't matter that people like my friend, still on a ventilator, might die because... Honestly up to them to justify why.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 11, 2020, 10:52:56 PM
That might be true of general society, but it’s not true of some people on this forum.


Because people are trying to crucify Matt Hancock for saying something that is common sense: don’t waste stuff that is in short supply. Yeah, it must be spin because in my mind there is no way the government could be half competent /sarcasm 

And you know what? I’d really like some feel good stories right now.

No doubt once this is all over, we will have inquiries to determine if what was done or not done was right or wrong at any time.

The immediate concern is what needs to be done now given where we are. Disruption due to the epidemic will be with us for at least the next 6 months. The government should be planning for how society will operate during this time so that we can emerge with a workable economy and minimal poverty or excess deaths or illness.

I haven't seen any sign that they are prepared for this, or even what they will do in three weeks time when we find the peak hospitalisations have passed.

If they do have plans and are just keeping them secret - that in itself is a big mistake.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sassy on April 11, 2020, 11:24:09 PM
I have nothing against you praying if you like, but I strongly advise you to follow the advice of medical professionals. Don't just trust your god to get you through this.

As God provided both why should we not use both?  Some times I think people do hot realise we believe everything came from God.  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 12, 2020, 12:30:34 AM
As God provided both why should we not use both?  Some times I think people do hot realise we believe everything came from God.  :)
including coronavirus and child cancer
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 12, 2020, 04:40:16 AM
"I'm sorry if people feel like there have been failings." From Priti Patel this evening. Not an apology but an accusation that the BMA, the RCN are liars. That any front line staff who think they didn't have sufficient PPE are liars. But that's ok for those who eant to dismiss front line staff as whingers, and people wasting resources. It doesn't matter that people like my friend, still on a ventilator, might die because... Honestly up to them to justify why.
In general, "I'm sorry you feel that way", "I'm sorry you were offended", and other sentences to that effect are weaselly non-apologies, beloved of politiciasns, which imply that the other person is thin-skinned. Thw word "sorry" on its own is decidedly weaselly. I'm sorry that I've never won s lottery jackpot, but that's not an apology. The only words thast cut the mustard are "I apologise", because they unequivocally take the blame.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 12, 2020, 10:11:29 AM

Dani Garavelli on the govt performance

https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/dani-garavelli-boris-has-risen-dont-bank-another-easter-miracle-2536533?fbclid=IwAR0KT37DK8CltkqOOpag1l_-vG5s46V3jL0ECgf-3vFMVckP6XmLmOumvAo
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 12, 2020, 12:52:37 PM
Good thread

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1249127908876128259.html?fbclid=IwAR2MNs3yI3jtphDlwfVXUckfLYiYZzDtcx8DrnNpJMDJY2k_ZwsrK3qBUwc
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on April 12, 2020, 01:53:19 PM
Do you mean jakswan's own contribution or the post to which he was replying? I'm assuming the former.

I was referring to the event on 6 August 1945 - not the second explosion three days later.

I'm sure the regrettable events of that time did involve the experimental as well as a terrible necessity to do something and to my mind terrible as it was it was to my mind the only option available at that time and it wasn't in totality wrong doing by the Americans that caused these events and it really gets up my nostrils when it's always, 'how wrong of the Americans', always gets front seat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 12, 2020, 02:33:11 PM
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-government-close-to-lies-over-coronavirus-deaths-warns-expert-11972083

John Ashton continues to make the case for government openness - how can good decisions be made on false data?

Quote
Prof Ashton, who is also a former president of the Faculty of Public Health, told Sky News: "At the moment, a lot of what's going on in these briefings is coming very close to lies and we must prevent this from happening at all costs."

He said: "It may be one and a half times what we've got…it may even be twice as many…you know if I was to say well if it's 10, let's call it 20….is my truth any better than their truth in this?"

"We need to be able to see the data and crawl over it and really see what's really going on."
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 12, 2020, 03:21:30 PM
No doubt once this is all over, we will have inquiries to determine if what was done or not done was right or wrong at any time.

The immediate concern is what needs to be done now given where we are. Disruption due to the epidemic will be with us for at least the next 6 months. The government should be planning for how society will operate during this time so that we can emerge with a workable economy and minimal poverty or excess deaths or illness.

I haven't seen any sign that they are prepared for this, or even what they will do in three weeks time when we find the peak hospitalisations have passed.

If they do have plans and are just keeping them secret - that in itself is a big mistake.
Sorry but you are asking the government to square the circle. You can choose either minimal poverty or minimal excess deaths but not both. That is the reality of the situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on April 12, 2020, 03:40:48 PM
Good thread

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1249127908876128259.html?fbclid=IwAR2MNs3yI3jtphDlwfVXUckfLYiYZzDtcx8DrnNpJMDJY2k_ZwsrK3qBUwc

 A scary thread.  Irish deaths at 320, in a population of 5 million, UK deaths 10  000, out of 66 million.

There are probably many confounding factors, e.g., Ireland more rural, fewer travellers,  but it seems that they locked down earlier, thus St Pats Day was cancelled, while in the UK we had the Cheltenham Festival, football matches, pop concerts.

Why aren't the media investigating? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 12, 2020, 03:44:38 PM
Sorry but you are asking the government to square the circle. You can choose either minimal poverty or minimal excess deaths but not both. That is the reality of the situation.

er... but I did say minimal poverty OR excess deaths, not ... AND ...

In any case, somewhat separately, I want a workable economy that minimizes poverty - ie. a fair, well balanced  economy - not the one we had before covid, which left us unprepared for predictable events and is unable to cope with a temporary shutdown of non-essential activities.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on April 12, 2020, 04:13:43 PM
I'm sure the regrettable events of that time did involve the experimental as well as a terrible necessity to do something and to my mind terrible as it was it was to my mind the only option available at that time and it wasn't in totality wrong doing by the Americans that caused these events and it really gets up my nostrils when it's always, 'how wrong of the Americans', always gets front seat.

I agree with you - almost completely. I think that, as you say, the Hiroshima bomb was "the only option at that time".  My understanding is that its use and the immediate aftermath virtually paralysed the Japanese high command into total inaction and because Japan did not surrender immediately, Nagasaki was bombed.

It has been suggested that the Americans should have organised a demonstration of the atomic bomb on an uninhabited island rather than drop it on a major city, but the evidence suggests that Hiroshima had been selected as a suitable target some time before. It is enclosed by a ring of hills and the effects of blast and radiation would be contained. It was continually spared  when other cities were subjected to fire bombing. Nagasaki was not a prime target and was only used because preferred targets were obscured by bad weather.

There is a very beautiful animated film, available from Amazon, entitled  In This Corner of the World which is about ordinary Japanese people living in the Hiroshima area during World War 2. I highly recommend it.


But - as I said before - what has this to do with COVID-19?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on April 12, 2020, 04:57:12 PM

A  joke going around....

'There is no cure for a virus that is killed by soap water...?!'   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 12, 2020, 05:09:26 PM
A  joke going around....

'There is no cure for a virus that is killed by soap water...?!'
👍
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 12, 2020, 05:37:43 PM
A  joke going around....

'There is no cure for a virus that is killed by soap water...?!'
"It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on April 12, 2020, 06:27:56 PM
I agree with you - almost completely. I think that, as you say, the Hiroshima bomb was "the only option at that time".  My understanding is that its use and the immediate aftermath virtually paralysed the Japanese high command into total inaction and because Japan did not surrender immediately, Nagasaki was bombed.

It has been suggested that the Americans should have organised a demonstration of the atomic bomb on an uninhabited island rather than drop it on a major city, but the evidence suggests that Hiroshima had been selected as a suitable target some time before. It is enclosed by a ring of hills and the effects of blast and radiation would be contained. It was continually spared  when other cities were subjected to fire bombing. Nagasaki was not a prime target and was only used because preferred targets were obscured by bad weather.

There is a very beautiful animated film, available from Amazon, entitled  In This Corner of the World which is about ordinary Japanese people living in the Hiroshima area during World War 2. I highly recommend it.


But - as I said before - what has this to do with COVID-19?

Sounds about right to me H H.

Regards, ippy
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 12, 2020, 06:39:45 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-52260970

An Oxford eye hospital has seen a increase in serious eye injuries since the lockdown, due to people doing DIY tasks without wearing eye protection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 12, 2020, 07:46:13 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-52260970

An Oxford eye hospital has seen a increase in serious eye injuries since the lockdown, due to people doing DIY tasks without wearing eye protection.

No one wears eye protection whilst doing DIY, except on telly. Mostly because it's stupid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on April 13, 2020, 05:16:54 AM
"It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."


There is no 'sound and fury' NS.  It is not a Shakespearean drama....just a joke with irony.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 13, 2020, 10:30:07 AM
er... but I did say minimal poverty OR excess deaths, not ... AND ...
Well what you actually wrote was:

"we can emerge with a workable economy and minimal poverty or excess deaths or illness"

which literally means we could have minimal poverty or we could have excess deaths. However, I chose to interpret it as "we can emerge with a workable economy and minimal poverty or minimal excess deaths or illness" because that seemed more like your intent.

i.e. we could choose to focus on minimising poverty or minimising deaths. You could go for some middle way and accept some excess deaths in return for not having the worst possible economy and poverty but that course of action proved very unpopular.
Quote
In any case, somewhat separately, I want a workable economy that minimizes poverty - ie. a fair, well balanced  economy - not the one we had before covid
How do you know that the economy we had before is not the one that minimises poverty?

Quote
which left us unprepared for predictable events
If we'd had a huge stock pile of PPE or ventilators, we might have found it unusable when the crisis came around. You can be prepared for a crisis like this, but it has its own cost. You can't just fill a warehouse full of stuff and expect it to be usable in 50 years when the next pandemic happens. You've got to maintain it. You've got to have regular practice runs. It all costs money and time and opportunity. If it was as easy to be prepared for a pandemic as it is to rant about it on a message board, we would be prepared.

Quote
and is unable to cope with a temporary shutdown of non-essential activities.
I think we are coping by and large.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 13, 2020, 10:51:36 AM
I've been loathe to comment on this before because it is off topic (maybe the mods can move the Hiroshima stuff to a new thread), but I think I will now.

I agree with you - almost completely. I think that, as you say, the Hiroshima bomb was "the only option at that time".
The Hiroshima bomb was not the only option at the time. Two others that come to mind:

1. launch a full scale invasion of Japan.

2. Negotiate a peace

Option 1 would have been a bloodbath and perhaps unlikely to succeed: compare the D-Day landings and the enormous efforts required to make them successful. Then check the amount of ocean needed to be crossed to get from Britain to Northern France as opposed to from the USA to Japan.

Option 2 was politically unacceptable because of Pearl Harbour. I don't think Japan would have accepted any kind of peace that didn't allow them to keep some of the territories they captured. Japan was in a war with China and short of the resources needed to prosecute that war. That's why they launched the Pacific war in the first place.

Quote
It has been suggested that the Americans should have organised a demonstration of the atomic bomb on an uninhabited island rather than drop it on a major city, but the evidence suggests that Hiroshima had been selected as a suitable target some time before. It is enclosed by a ring of hills and the effects of blast and radiation would be contained. It was continually spared  when other cities were subjected to fire bombing. Nagasaki was not a prime target and was only used because preferred targets were obscured by bad weather.
They only had two bombs. They probably wanted the highest possible impact to drive the message home to the Japanese. If they had just done a demonstration, Japan might have carried on "yes they've got this bomb, but they clearly won't use it against cities". One bomb wasted.

Another thing to bear in mind is that this really wasn't a huge moral leap. They firebombed Tokyo in March  and caused comparable casualties and conventional bombing had levelled cities regularly in Japan and Germany with similar levels of casualties. Tokyo wasn't chosen as a target for the atom bomb mainly because there was practically nothing left of it.

Finally, imagine being president and not dropping the bomb and then invading Japan. What would you say to the mothers, wives and children of the million or so servicemen killed in the invasion of Japan in 1947 when they found out you had the means to end the war a year early?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ekim on April 13, 2020, 10:55:24 AM
An interesting article ..... https://tinyurl.com/vpjqh7y
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 13, 2020, 05:09:31 PM
My friend who is on the ventilator is going to be given a tracheostomy as while her lungs and heart are doing ok, her body is very weak so this will give her more time conscious and allow more physio to be done.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 13, 2020, 05:55:45 PM
My friend who is on the ventilator is going to be given a tracheostomy as while her lungs and heart are doing ok, her body is very weak so this will give her more time conscious and allow more physio to be done.
best wishes to your friend and yourself
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 13, 2020, 07:17:41 PM
This is heart warming but the NHS needs not to be seen as a charity. The Tories will need to follow through in support of the staff with wage rises rather than claps.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52269398
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 13, 2020, 07:23:04 PM
Edgy Eamonn = ignorant Eamonn


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-52270736
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 13, 2020, 07:51:04 PM
But it's all okay, Princess Beatrice is going to raise our spirits next year.



https://www.express.co.uk/news/royal/1268047/princess-beatrice-royal-wedding-Edoardo-Mapelli-Mozzi-coronavirus
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 13, 2020, 08:09:43 PM
But it's all okay, Princess Beatrice is going to raise our spirits next year.



https://www.express.co.uk/news/royal/1268047/princess-beatrice-royal-wedding-Edoardo-Mapelli-Mozzi-coronavirus
will I need a new suit?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 13, 2020, 08:27:43 PM
Edgy Eamonn = ignorant Eamonn


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-52270736
good ol Eamonn
he probably thinks those towers are Neurotransmitters ! :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 14, 2020, 07:21:30 AM

Sad that anyone should die from this. Angry that this sort of thinking will have put many vulnerable people at risk.


https://nypost.com/2020/04/13/virginia-pastor-who-held-packed-church-service-dies-of-coronavirus/?utm_medium=SocialFlow&utm_source=NYPFacebook&sr_share=facebook&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&fbclid=IwAR1Rxokpy_1M1-bUpTewEG9p1BufVnBV_UPPXUWJXgpvEDfqcNJf2DRi9qA
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 14, 2020, 10:30:29 AM
Well what you actually wrote was:

"we can emerge with a workable economy and minimal poverty or excess deaths or illness"

which literally means we could have minimal poverty or we could have excess deaths. However, I chose to interpret it as "we can emerge with a workable economy and minimal poverty or minimal excess deaths or illness" because that seemed more like your intent.

i.e. we could choose to focus on minimising poverty or minimising deaths. You could go for some middle way and accept some excess deaths in return for not having the worst possible economy and poverty but that course of action proved very unpopular. How do you know that the economy we had before is not the one that minimises poverty?

hmm.. you might be right ... whatever...

Quote
If we'd had a huge stock pile of PPE or ventilators, we might have found it unusable when the crisis came around. You can be prepared for a crisis like this, but it has its own cost. You can't just fill a warehouse full of stuff and expect it to be usable in 50 years when the next pandemic happens. You've got to maintain it. You've got to have regular practice runs. It all costs money and time and opportunity. If it was as easy to be prepared for a pandemic as it is to rant about it on a message board, we would be prepared.

Having a system to maintain sufficient stocks for epidemics or other natural or man made disasters is clearly do-able in an effective and efficient manner. Even the preparations for brexit are likely to have helped us in the present one. You only need enough stocks - used as a reservoir so it doesn't become unusable - to keep you going until contingency plans, reassigning production as needed, kick in with sufficient fresh supplies. 

Quote
I think we are coping by and large.

Well... wasn't it you protesting about being fucked  :-\
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SweetPea on April 14, 2020, 01:08:06 PM
Something amazing and courageous: while recovering from a hip operation and skin cancer, 99yr old Tom Moore is walking 100 laps of his driveway (which is fairly lengthy) before his 100th birthday at the end of the month to raise money for the NHS. Bravo!!

Enjoy:

https://twitter.com/BBCBreakfast/status/1248516062364106753

Capt. Tom Moore has now raised over £1m.

Well done to you sir!  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 14, 2020, 01:29:00 PM
Capt. Tom Moore has now raised over £1m.

Well done to you sir!  :)
It's great that he has done it.

But we need to be careful with a 'charitization' of the NHS where the govt avoids enough investment because of what is essentially window dressing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 14, 2020, 01:30:55 PM
Capt. Tom Moore has now raised over £1m.

Well done to you sir!  :)

FANTASTIC :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 14, 2020, 02:30:07 PM
Last week the Finnish goverment started to do random antibody tests and will do till the end of the year, so they can get a clearer picture of how widely the virus has spread. Initially they will only be able to do 750 tests a week in and around the capital but hope to gradually extend testing to the rest of the country. I might see if I can get it done privately. I have a suspicion I might have already had it around the turn of February/March. If it wasn't, it was certainly a dead ringer for it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on April 14, 2020, 03:08:23 PM
After at least three weeks of trying to solve my particular problem (i.e. getting the food and supplies I want from Tesco to here) and coming up against dead ends - very interested and helpful people all along, but still, dead ends, it looks as if I am getting somewhere. Help The Aged, with whom I left a message at the beginning of last week I think it was, have just phoned to ask for more information and have arranged a phone call with someone tomorrow morning to register me as definitely on the very vulnrerable list.
The solution is  basically simple: someone to collect my shopping list and the money, go to Tesco and bring it back. But so many other things have to be taken into consideration, particularly in an area like this where there are so many elderly people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 14, 2020, 03:49:59 PM
From the BBC live feed


'The UK’s mobile networks have reported 20 cases of phone masts being targeted in suspected arson attacks over the weekend.

Conspiracy theories falsely claiming the 5G network has caused or helped accelerate the spread of Covid-19 have been circulating.

News of the attacks came as media regulator Ofcom announced earlier today it was assessing comments made by ITV presenter Eamonn Holmes about 5G technology and coronavirus.

Trade group Mobile UK said the reported cases had been in England, Wales and Scotland. The figure represents a lower incidence rate than had been the case the previous weekend.

There were also cases reported in the Netherlands over the weekend and a suspected case in Ireland.'

There was weird children's TV programme in the 70s called The Changes, I am reminded of it


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Changes_(TV_series)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 14, 2020, 03:52:54 PM
There are so many gullible idiots in this world!!! >:( Destroying those masts could put people's lives in danger if they can't use their mobile phone and don't have a landline.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 14, 2020, 04:04:27 PM
Having a system to maintain sufficient stocks for epidemics or other natural or man made disasters is clearly do-able in an effective and efficient manner.
Is it? Tell us how  you would do it.

Quote
Even the preparations for brexit are likely to have helped us in the present one. You only need enough stocks - used as a reservoir so it doesn't become unusable - to keep you going until contingency plans, reassigning production as needed, kick in with sufficient fresh supplies. 

How many masks is "only enough"? How many  ventilators? Where do you store them? How do you maintain them? Do you know what's involved in "reassigning production as needed"?

It's easy for us to say these things, but we are not  the ones who have to actually do this. We can sit here smugly criticising the government for not being able to magic up as million masks or test kits and the drop of the hat, but there are people out there in the government and the NHS desperately trying to source the materiel the NHS needs to not collapse. I assure you, it's a lot harder than banging out "reassigning production as needed" on your keyboard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 14, 2020, 04:42:27 PM
We actually kept a stock for such emergencies when other countries saw no need for their's and got rid of them. Yes, we're still short, but not as short as we could have been. And yes, they need renewing, which costs money, but this proves it was worth it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 14, 2020, 04:50:48 PM
Is it? Tell us how  you would do it.

How many masks is "only enough"? How many  ventilators? Where do you store them? How do you maintain them? Do you know what's involved in "reassigning production as needed"?

It's easy for us to say these things, but we are not  the ones who have to actually do this. We can sit here smugly criticising the government for not being able to magic up as million masks or test kits and the drop of the hat, but there are people out there in the government and the NHS desperately trying to source the materiel the NHS needs to not collapse. I assure you, it's a lot harder than banging out "reassigning production as needed" on your keyboard.

Yes, of-course, I entirely agree. The last thing you want is idiots poking their noses in.

As a member of the general, ignorant, public, I would expect the government to commission appropriate professionals and experts to determine what was required, maybe even based on simulations of possible events and evaluation of stock levels and supplies, then act on their recommendations.

 - or just bury them for political reasons?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 14, 2020, 05:01:08 PM
Quote
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/revealed-value-of-uk-pandemic-stockpile-fell-by-40-in-six-years

Some decisions seem unusual though don't they?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 14, 2020, 05:09:27 PM
We actually kept a stock for such emergencies when other countries saw no need for their's and got rid of them. Yes, we're still short, but not as short as we could have been. And yes, they need renewing, which costs money, but this proves it was worth it.

Yes, my impression is that Germany and the Scandinavian countries (possibly apart from Sweden) were better prepared than the UK. ISTR even Italy had more ICU places.



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 14, 2020, 05:15:45 PM
Lots of questions here, in particular , are we seriously underestimating the numbers of those dead because of Covid 19.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52278825
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 14, 2020, 05:18:22 PM
Yes, my impression is that Germany and the Scandinavian countries (possibly apart from Sweden) were better prepared than the UK. ISTR even Italy had more ICU places.

Italy had considerably more but that may not be the issue, see this thread I posted earlier.


https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1249127908876128259.html?fbclid=IwAR2MNs3yI3jtphDlwfVXUckfLYiYZzDtcx8DrnNpJMDJY2k_ZwsrK3qBUwc
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 14, 2020, 05:55:17 PM
....I assure you, it's a lot harder than banging out "reassigning production as needed" on your keyboard.
I am sure it is. Doesn't mean that anyone can't rationally point out failings to use the recommendations from Cygnus, or the lies about sufficient PPE being available, or managing to screw up bulk buying with the EU because of ideology, and lying about that.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/uk-missed-three-chances-to-join-eu-scheme-to-bulk-buy-ppe/14/04/?fbclid=IwAR0_Xh1bXCu-F2NJPE_MpXWqQ-eftwRA3iwrsl-tvU5bXczGQCOd-Q1z_mo

There are people on the front line dying because this govt lied, were incompetent and didn't plan, but you want to let them away with that and cover up their responsibility.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 14, 2020, 08:15:47 PM
My friend has had the tracheostomy. Her husband asked about when she would be well enough to text. 2 weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 14, 2020, 08:30:29 PM
My friend has had the tracheostomy. Her husband asked about when she would be well enough to text. 2 weeks.
Does this mean she's on the mend?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 14, 2020, 08:40:59 PM
Does this mean she's on the mend?
Bit by very slow bit. It's good news but doesn't mean this is a straight road.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 14, 2020, 08:57:26 PM
Bit by very slow bit. It's good news but doesn't mean this is a straight road.

Cautiously positive. Good news. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 14, 2020, 09:02:46 PM
Cautiously positive. Good news. :)
Thank you
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 15, 2020, 04:53:56 AM
Last week the Finnish goverment started to do random antibody tests and will do till the end of the year, so they can get a clearer picture of how widely the virus has spread. Initially they will only be able to do 750 tests a week in and around the capital but hope to gradually extend testing to the rest of the country. I might see if I can get it done privately. I have a suspicion I might have already had it around the turn of February/March. If it wasn't, it was certainly a dead ringer for it.

The doctor said I qualify for the test. They have drive-in test points near me. I'll do it on the weekend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on April 15, 2020, 05:16:33 AM
Cautiously positive. Good news. :)

Agree. Chin up NS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 15, 2020, 02:27:24 PM
The doctor said I qualify for the test. They have drive-in test points near me. I'll do it on the weekend.

Managed to get the antibody test done today. Was able to go straight to the lab because I haven't had any symptoms for a few weeks. Anyway, it turned out to be negative. Was hoping for positive, because it would have meant some sort of immunity. Still, useful information in the sense that I now know I still have to be very careful. It just makes me wonder what I had then, because it knocked me for six. Maybe some influenza strain that isn't covered by the vaccine?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 15, 2020, 02:43:19 PM
Sweden recorded 180 corona deaths yesterday. Adjusted for population, that would be 1200 in the UK. I find it difficult to understand how they justify their strategy. They're willing to sacrifice lives in the hope of saving their economy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 15, 2020, 03:07:48 PM
I yearn for the rubber dub.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 15, 2020, 03:10:39 PM
I yearn for the rubber dub.

And the pool hall.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 15, 2020, 03:43:21 PM
A bit of good news amidst all the gloom. A woman of 106 has been discharged from hospital after recovering from the virus. :)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-52296196

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 15, 2020, 03:44:34 PM
A bit of good news amidst all the gloom. A woman of 106 has been discharged from hospital after recovering from the virus. :)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-52296196
Good stuff! :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 15, 2020, 03:45:54 PM
I yearn for the rubber dub.
I know what you mean. This sketch was originally meant to cover Irish pubs being open on Good Friday but it chimes with me.

https://youtu.be/mdBREoaRVzU
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 15, 2020, 04:36:49 PM
I know what you mean. This sketch was originally meant to cover Irish pubs being open on Good Friday but it chimes with me.

https://youtu.be/mdBREoaRVzU

LOL! :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 15, 2020, 06:09:19 PM
The news today in the UK is cautiously optimistic. Number of deaths each day seems to be down from the peak of nearly one thousand. New cases seem to have stabilized and positive tests seem to be on a downward trend. Number of people hospitalized has stabilized and decreased in London - the worst hit region.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 15, 2020, 06:24:46 PM
The news today in the UK is cautiously optimistic. Number of deaths each day seems to be down from the peak of nearly one thousand. New cases seem to have stabilized and positive tests seem to be on a downward trend. Number of people hospitalized has stabilized and decreased in London - the worst hit region.

Today's deaths are up on those  published yesterday. :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 15, 2020, 06:35:12 PM
The news today in the UK is cautiously optimistic. Number of deaths each day seems to be down from the peak of nearly one thousand. New cases seem to have stabilized and positive tests seem to be on a downward trend. Number of people hospitalized has stabilized and decreased in London - the worst hit region.
The question is given the number of overall deaths whether those numbers are in any real sense accurate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 15, 2020, 06:38:13 PM
Everything is fine

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/15/uk-government-coronavirus-science-who-advice
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 15, 2020, 07:31:22 PM
Today's deaths are up on those  published yesterday. :(
But only slightly. The general trend over the last few days is flat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 16, 2020, 11:29:46 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52308783

9 in 10 people dying of the virus have an existing health condition. I see dementia is one of the conditions listed, I am not quite sure how one's mental health would cause one to die of the virus?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on April 16, 2020, 11:51:47 AM
I didn't think that dementia in itself made you more susceptible, but that it's more difficult to practise hygiene measures, keep social distancing, etc.    I don't know know how they manage in care homes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 16, 2020, 11:55:58 AM
Our Down's Syndrome son is in a small care home with only three residents, but plenty of care staff. I am concerned that one of them might bring it into the home. Social distancing isn't possible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 16, 2020, 01:36:51 PM
Good thread on govt's performance

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1249979116302012418.html?fbclid=IwAR0GdzrFD5gUwFlpo4WvLwj2gBymAgMGn6z5ise36TGcHBIsho99kZ_C5pY
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 16, 2020, 02:09:08 PM
Our Down's Syndrome son is in a small care home with only three residents, but plenty of care staff. I am concerned that one of them might bring it into the home. Social distancing isn't possible.
That must be very worrying. Do you know if they have had sufficient supplies of PPE?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 16, 2020, 02:14:06 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52308783

9 in 10 people dying of the virus have an existing health condition. I see dementia is one of the conditions listed, I am not quite sure how one's mental health would cause one to die of the virus?
There's Wigginhall's answer.

Also it might be a reflection of the fact that old people are more susceptible to the virus and old people are more susceptible to dementia i.e. instead of cause  and  effect we have a cause (old age) and two effects.

A third reason is perhaps that perhaps medical people are not working quite so hard to save people with dementia as they are with people without dementia.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 16, 2020, 02:48:23 PM
From the BBC's rolling news


'More than 21 million Americans have lost their jobs in the past four weeks, new figures show. It is by far the worst run of job losses on record.

According to the latest figures from the Department of Labour, new unemployment claims reached 5.25 million in the week ending 11 April.

The previous week saw 6.6 million applications.

Much of the US population is under some form of lockdown because of the coronavirus pandemic, bringing the US economy to a virtual halt and forcing businesses big and small to lay off employees.

There are projections that the unemployment rate could reach 20% this month.

The US has almost 640,000 confirmed cases of the virus, and 30,985 people have died, according to Johns Hopkins University.'

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 16, 2020, 03:03:12 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52308783

9 in 10 people dying of the virus have an existing health condition. I see dementia is one of the conditions listed, I am not quite sure how one's mental health would cause one to die of the virus?

There is a known association between vascular dementia and cardiovascular problems, so I'd expect that to show up in the co-morbidity statistics.

https://www.alzforum.org/news/community-news/perfect-storm-families-grappling-dementia

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 16, 2020, 03:32:22 PM
From the BBC's rolling news


'More than 21 million Americans have lost their jobs in the past four weeks, new figures show. It is by far the worst run of job losses on record.

According to the latest figures from the Department of Labour, new unemployment claims reached 5.25 million in the week ending 11 April.

The previous week saw 6.6 million applications.

Much of the US population is under some form of lockdown because of the coronavirus pandemic, bringing the US economy to a virtual halt and forcing businesses big and small to lay off employees.

There are projections that the unemployment rate could reach 20% this month.

The US has almost 640,000 confirmed cases of the virus, and 30,985 people have died, according to Johns Hopkins University.'

I was perusing the statistics on https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus I'm in shock because they are reporting that the USA had almost 5,000 deaths yesterday. I sincerely hope it is an error or an artefact of the Easter weekend (delayed  reporting perhaps).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 16, 2020, 03:41:43 PM
From the BBC's rolling news


'More than 21 million Americans have lost their jobs in the past four weeks, new figures show. It is by far the worst run of job losses on record.

According to the latest figures from the Department of Labour, new unemployment claims reached 5.25 million in the week ending 11 April.

The previous week saw 6.6 million applications.

Much of the US population is under some form of lockdown because of the coronavirus pandemic, bringing the US economy to a virtual halt and forcing businesses big and small to lay off employees.

There are projections that the unemployment rate could reach 20% this month.

The US has almost 640,000 confirmed cases of the virus, and 30,985 people have died, according to Johns Hopkins University.'
saney,

flint knapping and wood working skills may be required in the future
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 16, 2020, 03:42:53 PM
saney,

flint knapping and wood working skills may be required in the future
In 'murica we got gunz
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on April 16, 2020, 03:44:14 PM
In 'murica we got gunz
don't trust them Merkins  8)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 16, 2020, 04:03:29 PM
Today's UK death total is 861 a rise on yesterday, it continues to go up not down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 16, 2020, 04:36:22 PM
I wish I'd wake up tomorrow and everything would be as it was. I go out to work but staying at home does my bloody head in. Even when I'm sick, two days at home and I start to get all fidgety and need to go out and meet people. Is this cabin fever? 😂
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 16, 2020, 05:07:17 PM
I wish I'd wake up tomorrow and everything would be as it was. I go out to work but staying at home does my bloody head in. Even when I'm sick, two days at home and I start to get all fidgety and need to go out and meet people. Is this cabin fever? 😂

Last night I dreamed things had really gone to pot. I was forced back to work - over a faulty radio from a bunker. Family also sheltering in there...

Was quite relieved when I woke up to the Today programme :)
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 16, 2020, 05:08:51 PM
Last night I dreamed things had really gone to pot. I was forced back to work - over a faulty radio from a bunker. Family also sheltering in there...

Was quite relieved when I woke up to the Today programme :)

 ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on April 16, 2020, 05:39:46 PM
I've got cabin fever, we were scheduled to go to Bath and Norfolk,  all off.   However, it's OK, time for a drink!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 16, 2020, 05:54:31 PM
I've got cabin fever, we were scheduled to go to Bath and Norfolk,  all off.   However, it's OK, time for a drink!

Drink cures all. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 16, 2020, 05:55:13 PM
Today's UK death total is 861 a rise on yesterday, it continues to go up not down.
You mean it’s gone up two days in a row. That’s not a disaster as long as the trend doesn’t continue.

On the other hand new confirmed cases are still on a downward trend and hospital beds occupied is also on a downward trend.

Overall, not as good as yesterday but still positive news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 16, 2020, 07:32:51 PM
https://newsthump.com/2020/04/16/dwp-declares-captain-tom-moore-fit-for-work/?fbclid=IwAR3c3KUsP8dicufE8TUciJJMT4ow0qsZIs--JX2x5nfG8qOsfemDBaD7w5M
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 16, 2020, 09:12:36 PM
More on govts response

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/15/uk-government-coronavirus-science-who-advice?fbclid=IwAR2Y0pgnkMLTxhWPRDsP1LeoFyXVh4e5rcE8rNU0BNie4wKla9TZDoWPdhs
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 16, 2020, 11:24:34 PM
It's amusing at work in the Mail Centre, watching people doing the social-distancing dance, as they circle round each other when passing in the gangways, to keep 2 metres apart.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 17, 2020, 08:46:51 AM
My husband has a problem for which I needed advice from our GP. They were supposed to phone me back yesterday morning, but didn't. When I phoned yesterday afternoon to find out why I hadn't heard anything I was told a prescription had been sent to the local pharmacy. Our surgery wants all their patients to use a special app to contact them. Unfortunately I have not been able to upload it onto my computer. Our eldest girl, or one of my grandsons, would normally do it for me, but with social distancing etc it is of course not possible. HEY HO!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 17, 2020, 08:50:59 AM
My husband has a problem for which I needed advice from our GP. They were supposed to phone me back yesterday morning, but didn't. When I phoned yesterday afternoon to find out why I hadn't heard anything I was told a prescription had been sent to the local pharmacy. Our surgery wants all their patients to use a special app to contact them. Unfortunately I have not been able to upload it onto my computer. Our eldest girl, or one of my grandsons, would normally do it for me, but with social distancing etc it is of course not possible. HEY HO!
What's the app? I and others here might be able to help you out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 17, 2020, 09:11:15 AM
What's the app? I and others here might be able to help you out.

The instructions are very simple, but my computer refused to accept it for some reason, I have tried it out several times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 17, 2020, 09:14:47 AM
The instructions are very simple, but my computer refused to accept it for some reason, I have tried it out several times.
I'll need more than that if I am going to be  able to make any useful suggestions.

However, is it definitely an app for computers? Most of the apps of this nature tend to be for mobile phones only.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 17, 2020, 10:28:26 AM
I'll need more than that if I am going to be  able to make any useful suggestions.

However, is it definitely an app for computers? Most of the apps of this nature tend to be for mobile phones only.

It is also for computers. Thanks for offering to help but I need someone like one of my kids to show me how to do it in person. I am not brilliant at following instructions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 17, 2020, 10:31:33 AM
It is also for computers. Thanks for offering to help but I need someone like one of my kids to show me how to do it in person. I am not brilliant at following instructions.
I'm sure one of your children could come round and do it for you within the lockdown rules, as long as you stayed at least 2 metres apart, and maybe sterilised the keyboard before and after with a wipe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 17, 2020, 10:37:48 AM
I'm sure one of your children could come round and do it for you within the lockdown rules, as long as you stayed at least 2 metres apart, and maybe sterilised the keyboard before and after with a wipe.

I am not going to trouble them unless it is really necessary. Besides which I very much doubt it will be much use anyway. The doctors have made it quite clear that unless one is on the verge of death they aren't really interested!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 17, 2020, 12:24:46 PM
My friend is now having half hour stints off and on the ventilator to help her be able to build up her chest muscles. Slow progress but progress.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 17, 2020, 12:36:21 PM
Denmark is reopening some businesses, these are the ones that are considered important.

Hairdressers, dentists, tattooists and driving school instructors will be allowed to resume work. Other professions include:

Physiotherapists
Psychologists
Beauty and massage salons
Optometrists
Podiatrists
Spa clinics
Piercing studios
Chiropractors


I am gobsmacked that tattooists, beauty salons, and piercing studios are included in the list! :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 17, 2020, 03:52:15 PM
My friend is now having half hour stints off and on the ventilator to help her be able to build up her chest muscles. Slow progress but progress.

Cautious good news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 17, 2020, 07:43:57 PM
My friend is now having half hour stints off and on the ventilator to help her be able to build up her chest muscles. Slow progress but progress.

That seems like goods news at a time when we need good news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 17, 2020, 07:45:55 PM
Denmark is reopening some businesses, these are the ones that are considered important.

Hairdressers, dentists, tattooists and driving school instructors will be allowed to resume work. Other professions include:

Physiotherapists
Psychologists
Beauty and massage salons
Optometrists
Podiatrists
Spa clinics
Piercing studios
Chiropractors


I am gobsmacked that tattooists, beauty salons, and piercing studios are included in the list! :o
Not as gobsmacked as I am that chiropractors are on the list. If I were i charge, they would be at or near the bottom and I'd forget to all them to open up again after the pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on April 17, 2020, 09:09:28 PM
https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/

I listened to the whole of this - well worth while.  A totally different perspective. Probably not a member of the A B deP Johnson fan club.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on April 17, 2020, 09:55:32 PM
Sadly, the age of the (allegedly) Christian pyramidiot is not dead.
https://khentiamentiu.blogspot.com/2020/04/televangelist-candice-smithyman-says.html?spref=fb&fbclid=IwAR0EE17wYRXEwrK8dplyAnrfP6i_2UTnfRQlSQBSHuDO8fJiJMGt5h1oE6U
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 18, 2020, 07:34:15 AM
https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/

I listened to the whole of this - well worth while.  A totally different perspective. Probably not a member of the A B deP Johnson fan club.

The figures speak for themselves. Sweden's death rate per million is ten times that of ours. So you tell the elderly and risk groups to stay at home and it doesn't matter how many get it. How long do they have to stay at home? They have all the burden put on then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 18, 2020, 08:38:22 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52330531

The White House lunatic has been apparently making tweets encouraging people to protest against States run by Democrats, which have strict lock down procedures! :evil:
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: torridon on April 18, 2020, 08:45:57 AM
The figures speak for themselves. Sweden's death rate per million is ten times that of ours. So you tell the elderly and risk groups to stay at home and it doesn't matter how many get it. How long do they have to stay at home? They have all the burden put on then.

Where do you get those figures from ?

Sweden has a lower mortality rate per infected person than the UK (10.63% as opposed to the UK's 13.32%), it also has a lower death rate per head of total population ( 0.01% as opposed to the UK's 0.02%) and a lower known infection rate per head of population (0.12% as opposed to the UK's 0.16%)

France has a very high mortality rate 16.46%, the highest of any large country
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 18, 2020, 08:58:03 AM
Where do you get those figures from ?

Sweden has a lower mortality rate per infected person than the UK (10.63% as opposed to the UK's 13.32%), it also has a lower death rate per head of total population ( 0.01% as opposed to the UK's 0.02%) and a lower known infection rate per head of population (0.12% as opposed to the UK's 0.16%)

France has a very high mortality rate 16.46%, the highest of any large country

Compared to Finland.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: torridon on April 18, 2020, 09:28:50 AM
Compared to Finland.

Ah, I see, sorry my mistake, interpreting "ours" to mean UK.  Yes, Finland has got off very lightly compared to many countries, mortality rate there is 2.23%, 75 deaths to date, 3400 confirmed cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 18, 2020, 11:12:24 AM
https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/

I listened to the whole of this - well worth while.  A totally different perspective. Probably not a member of the A B deP Johnson fan club.

I haven't listened to it yet, but there are clearly problems with his view. For example on the subject of herd immunity:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-immunity/who-unsure-antibodies-protect-against-covid-little-sign-of-herd-immunity-idUSKBN21Z2XM

The WHO says there is so far little evidence that having the disease bestows immunity.

Also, even with the current measures, the NHS came close to breaking point. Without them, it would probably have been overwhelmed. Apparently, if you get put on a ventilator, your chance of survival is about 50%. If you are ill enough to be put on a ventilator, but there isn't one available, your chance of survival is 0%.

Ad O is right. If you compare Sweden's death rate to Finland's and Norways's (probably the two most similar countries), it is ten times higher and five times higher respectively. It's true that our death rate is higher still but our population density is more than ten times that of Sweden.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sassy on April 18, 2020, 11:23:40 AM
including coronavirus and child cancer

Does death really respect age, sex or cause/  The bible is clear that God created man and everything to be good and nothing harmful.  Man disobeyed God and brought the fall and the bad things from Satan handing mankind over to his will and harm for man.  You throw these things in as if it somehow supports your beliefs about God. But the bible shows God is good and it shows if mankind trusts what he has done they can find his will for their lives now before they face the last judgement. You make your own decisions and you therefore by your choice decide who rules your life and your world. God does not want children dying of cancer and coronavirus I believe is manmade in his labs.  When all men at the top care about is money and power how do you expect them to give the healing treatment and lose multi billion pounds from drugs being sold to treat people? We can argue about what is here forever but we have to know what God has to offer before it all ends and you realise like so many that you were wrong. Deception is something Satan is good at.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 18, 2020, 11:27:54 AM
Does death really respect age, sex or cause/  The bible is clear that God created man and everything to be good and nothing harmful.  Man disobeyed God and brought the fall and the bad things from Satan handing mankind over to his will and harm for man.  You throw these things in as if it somehow supports your beliefs about God. But the bible shows God is good and it shows if mankind trusts what he has done they can find his will for their lives now before they face the last judgement. You make your own decisions and you therefore by your choice decide who rules your life and your world. God does not want children dying of cancer and coronavirus I believe is manmade in his labs.  When all men at the top care about is money and power how do you expect them to give the healing treatment and lose multi billion pounds from drugs being sold to treat people? We can argue about what is here forever but we have to know what God has to offer before it all ends and you realise like so many that you were wrong. Deception is something Satan is good at.
The Bible shows your god to a murderous psychopath who killed everyone but 8 people, murdered the first born in Egypt,and approved of beating slaves, and rape of women.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 18, 2020, 11:31:43 AM
Does death really respect age, sex or cause/
Your chance of dying in the next year is very strongly correlated to age.

Quote
The bible is clear that God created man and everything to be good and nothing harmful.  Man disobeyed God and brought the fall and the bad things from Satan handing mankind over to his will and harm for man.  You throw these things in as if it somehow supports your beliefs about God. But the bible shows God is good and it shows if mankind trusts what he has done they can find his will for their lives now before they face the last judgement. You make your own decisions and you therefore by your choice decide who rules your life and your world. God does not want children dying of cancer
I was going to write a detailed rebuttal of this, but since we are on the coronavirus thread and it would be a derail, I am just going to say you can take your religious nonsense and shove it up your own arse.

Quote
and coronavirus I believe is manmade in his labs.
This is almost certainly a falsehood. Please stop spreading untruths.

Quote
When all men at the top care about is money and power how do you expect them to give the healing treatment and lose multi billion pounds from drugs being sold to treat people? We can argue about what is here forever but we have to know what God has to offer before it all ends and you realise like so many that you were wrong. Deception is something Satan is good at.
Hopefully there's still some room up your own arse to shove this up it too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 18, 2020, 11:32:10 AM
Does death really respect age, sex or cause/  The bible is clear that God created man and everything to be good and nothing harmful.  Man disobeyed God and brought the fall and the bad things from Satan handing mankind over to his will and harm for man.  You throw these things in as if it somehow supports your beliefs about God. But the bible shows God is good and it shows if mankind trusts what he has done they can find his will for their lives now before they face the last judgement. You make your own decisions and you therefore by your choice decide who rules your life and your world. God does not want children dying of cancer and coronavirus I believe is manmade in his labs.  When all men at the top care about is money and power how do you expect them to give the healing treatment and lose multi billion pounds from drugs being sold to treat people? We can argue about what is here forever but we have to know what God has to offer before it all ends and you realise like so many that you were wrong. Deception is something Satan is good at.

This post of your is totally crazy!  Your version of god is evil, Satan couldn't be any worse, there is nothing good about it. >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 18, 2020, 11:33:00 AM
Does death really respect age, sex or cause/  The bible is clear that God created man and everything to be good and nothing harmful.  Man disobeyed God and brought the fall and the bad things from Satan handing mankind over to his will and harm for man.  You throw these things in as if it somehow supports your beliefs about God. But the bible shows God is good and it shows if mankind trusts what he has done they can find his will for their lives now before they face the last judgement. You make your own decisions and you therefore by your choice decide who rules your life and your world. God does not want children dying of cancer and coronavirus I believe is manmade in his labs.  When all men at the top care about is money and power how do you expect them to give the healing treatment and lose multi billion pounds from drugs being sold to treat people? We can argue about what is here forever but we have to know what God has to offer before it all ends and you realise like so many that you were wrong. Deception is something Satan is good at.

Coronavirus was not made in labs. We know that because we know its genetic make up. Fool!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 18, 2020, 11:35:54 AM
There may be a vaccine by autumn.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 18, 2020, 11:50:45 AM
There may be a vaccine by autumn.

Fingers crossed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 18, 2020, 11:57:28 AM
There may be a vaccine by autumn.

I doubt it. At least, I doubt it will be ready to vaccinate the general population.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on April 18, 2020, 12:06:10 PM
The figures speak for themselves. Sweden's death rate per million is ten times that of ours. So you tell the elderly and risk groups to stay at home and it doesn't matter how many get it. How long do they have to stay at home? They have all the burden put on then.

It's not done, Finland could suffer from a 2nd or 3rd wave whilst Sweden gets no further waves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 18, 2020, 12:16:50 PM
I doubt it. At least, I doubt it will be ready to vaccinate the general population.
It's what some Oxford scientists are saying - and, as the i points out, scientists are notoriously cautious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 18, 2020, 12:49:27 PM
It's what some Oxford scientists are saying - and, as the i points out, scientists are notoriously cautious.
You mean these ones?

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52329659

They haven’t even started trials yet. I’d say they’re being optimistic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 18, 2020, 01:21:29 PM
Idiots

https://metro.co.uk/video/packed-scenes-westminster-bridge-8pm-clap-carers-2153754/

People gathered on Westminster Bridge to clap the NHS. Don't they have any idea why this clapping keeps happening?

Also, the police were joining in.

Sometimes people are just stupid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on April 18, 2020, 01:32:59 PM
Does death really respect age, sex or cause/  The bible is clear that God created man and everything to be good and nothing harmful.  Man disobeyed God and brought the fall and the bad things from Satan handing mankind over to his will and harm for man.  You throw these things in as if it somehow supports your beliefs about God. But the bible shows God is good and it shows if mankind trusts what he has done they can find his will for their lives now before they face the last judgement. You make your own decisions and you therefore by your choice decide who rules your life and your world. God does not want children dying of cancer and coronavirus I believe is manmade in his labs.  When all men at the top care about is money and power how do you expect them to give the healing treatment and lose multi billion pounds from drugs being sold to treat people? We can argue about what is here forever but we have to know what God has to offer before it all ends and you realise like so many that you were wrong. Deception is something Satan is good at.
In my opinion, that post is not only disgracefully wrong information, but an insult to those who are carrying out the restrictions placed on us and those who are working to heal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 18, 2020, 01:34:25 PM
Idiots

https://metro.co.uk/video/packed-scenes-westminster-bridge-8pm-clap-carers-2153754/

People gathered on Westminster Bridge to clap the NHS. Don't they have any idea why this clapping keeps happening?

Also, the police were joining in.

Sometimes people are just stupid.

Clapping is good if it shows how much we appreciate the NHS, however it should not be done in a crowd. Standing at the door or bedroom window of one's property is the way to do it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 18, 2020, 01:43:44 PM
You mean these ones?

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52329659

They haven’t even started trials yet. I’d say they’re being optimistic.
The BBC is being optimistic, not the scientists. In the more sober i report, they were saying there was an 80% chance they'd have a vaccine by the autumn, but it might not work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 18, 2020, 01:50:22 PM
Fascinating stuff


https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/04/june-almeida-discovered-coronaviruses-decades-ago-little-recognition/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: torridon on April 18, 2020, 02:20:43 PM
Does death really respect age, sex or cause/  The bible is clear that God created man and everything to be good and nothing harmful.  Man disobeyed God and brought the fall and the bad things from Satan handing mankind over to his will and harm for man.  You throw these things in as if it somehow supports your beliefs about God. But the bible shows God is good and it shows if mankind trusts what he has done they can find his will for their lives now before they face the last judgement. You make your own decisions and you therefore by your choice decide who rules your life and your world. God does not want children dying of cancer and coronavirus I believe is manmade in his labs.  When all men at the top care about is money and power how do you expect them to give the healing treatment and lose multi billion pounds from drugs being sold to treat people? We can argue about what is here forever but we have to know what God has to offer before it all ends and you realise like so many that you were wrong. Deception is something Satan is good at.

This really makes no sense at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 18, 2020, 02:30:23 PM
This really makes no sense at all.

Nor do most of her posts. ::)

NS that is an interesting article.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 18, 2020, 08:01:59 PM
Cptn Tom Moore has now raised over 23M for NHS charities. One of my worries about this is that people might think this a significantly large number. Let's consider that even if he were to make 100M, it is way less than 0.1% of the annual budget of the NHS
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 18, 2020, 09:06:28 PM
The BBC is being optimistic, not the scientists. In the more sober i report, they were saying there was an 80% chance they'd have a vaccine by the autumn, but it might not work.

In theory it should work and we could have a vaccine in September - ready for mass production. However the virus is quite tricky. The Naked Scientists have a genetics podcast that describes some of the issues found in parallel attempts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 18, 2020, 09:08:41 PM
Cptn Tom Moore has now raised over 23M for NHS charities. One of my worries about this is that people might think this a significantly large number. Let's consider that even if he were to make 100M, it is way less than 0.1% of the annual budget of the NHS
The umbrella charity, representing a number of NHS charities, to which the money is going, has an explicit rule that its financial contributions must not go on core services, such as nurses' and doctors' salaries. It goes towards extras, which make hospital patients' stays pleasanter: toys for children's wards, artwork to cheer up adult wards, etc. I think £23m will make quite a difference there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 18, 2020, 09:11:09 PM
Cptn Tom Moore has now raised over 23M for NHS charities. One of my worries about this is that people might think this a significantly large number. Let's consider that even if he were to make 100M, it is way less than 0.1% of the annual budget of the NHS

Bugger ... they'll be sending him up Snowdon or Ben Nevis next  ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 18, 2020, 09:17:22 PM
The umbrella charity, representing a number of NHS charities, to which the money is going, has an explicit rule that its financial contributions must not go on core services, such as nurses' and doctors' salaries. It goes towards extras, which make hospital patients' stays pleasanter: toys for children's wards, artwork to cheer up adult wards, etc. I think £23m will make quite a difference there.
Yes, I get that but people think the number itself is significant in terms of what happens in the NHS because they don't understand the scale. It won't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 18, 2020, 09:18:09 PM
Marina Hyde

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/17/matt-hancock-dominic-raab-ppe-care-badges?__twitter_impression=true&fbclid=IwAR2k4wnd_lRefuHG1VKDS_EiSCH8q7NnEDnollui9VKufJMwdG1DBjznCr0
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on April 18, 2020, 10:00:08 PM
I was perusing the statistics on https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus I'm in shock because they are reporting that the USA had almost 5,000 deaths yesterday. I sincerely hope it is an error or an artefact of the Easter weekend (delayed  reporting perhaps).

I've bookmarked the link.  The problem with the US is Trump and his GOP State cohorts have done everything to stop both testing (Trump does not want accurate numbers because of how it might negatively affect the Stock Market) and accurate data on deaths.  I've read where hospitals in conservative states (like Florida here) are complaining that their reports on the COVID related deaths are not being counted.  I follow the John's Hopkins data, but even there, they are limited to what's available. 

The only government official I listen to is Andrew Cuomo, governor of New York.  He holds daily briefings on New York, but his information shows just how effective a government official can be when lives are more important than the stock market, but also when trying to keep the economy from senselessly suffering.  On the latter, he was the first to mention how an antibody test could allow people who have had COVID and recovered to return to the workplace, and also possibly help be part of a cure or treatment by donating their blood plasma.  Oh, how I wish someone like him was in charge of the federal government. (I'll bet he wishes the same thing.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 19, 2020, 10:23:01 AM
I've bookmarked the link.  The problem with the US is Trump and his GOP State cohorts have done everything to stop both testing (Trump does not want accurate numbers because of how it might negatively affect the Stock Market) and accurate data on deaths.  I've read where hospitals in conservative states (like Florida here) are complaining that their reports on the COVID related deaths are not being counted.  I follow the John's Hopkins data, but even there, they are limited to what's available. 

The only government official I listen to is Andrew Cuomo, governor of New York.  He holds daily briefings on New York, but his information shows just how effective a government official can be when lives are more important than the stock market, but also when trying to keep the economy from senselessly suffering.  On the latter, he was the first to mention how an antibody test could allow people who have had COVID and recovered to return to the workplace, and also possibly help be part of a cure or treatment by donating their blood plasma.  Oh, how I wish someone like him was in charge of the federal government. (I'll bet he wishes the same thing.)

The huge jump to which I referred was partly an artefact. New York discovered some cases that they should have counted but didn't. Nevertheless, it's still pretty grim - three thousand deaths yesterday. Mind you, taking into account population size, it's still worse here in the UK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 19, 2020, 11:16:36 AM

How the UK lost 5 weeks to help deal with the virus.

http://archive.vn/ofnfS
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 19, 2020, 12:05:25 PM
The plan is for my friend to be off the ventilator for 12 hours today, and she is now capable of following conversation and give head nods and hand gestures. Big step forward.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 19, 2020, 12:47:38 PM
Caught up with yesterday's Dateline: London, always a good watch. The discussion highlights that this has not been a good crisis for international cooperation, but that in the end shows we need to get better at that rather than indulging in looking inwards.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006m93g
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 19, 2020, 03:36:10 PM
Here's an interesting video about designing ventilators and why it is not as easy as Mr Dyson, Mr Musk and Mr Branson probably thought.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vLPefHYWpY
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 19, 2020, 07:18:04 PM
Marriages by Zoom

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52346437
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ekim on April 20, 2020, 02:52:34 PM
Looks like the Duke and Duchess of Sussex picked the wrong country...... https://tinyurl.com/y8w3jb7d
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on April 20, 2020, 03:40:51 PM
I receive a weekly e-mail from the Daily Telegraph because I subscribe to the crossword puzzles and the latest one talks of a new game sent in by another subscriber. It is called Take Two' and is a fast version of scrabble. It sounds like something I would love to play if I still could.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 20, 2020, 07:19:31 PM
Oil prices collapse even further


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-oils-may-contract-skids-about-20-at-nadir-as-crudes-woes-continue-2020-04-19
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 20, 2020, 07:44:18 PM
My friend managed to sit up today!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 20, 2020, 08:14:45 PM

Sad to see, Djokovic being an anti vaxxer on this.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-novak-djokovic-reveals-hes-an-anti-vaxxer-and-it-may-stop-his-return-to-tennis-11975846?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter&fbclid=IwAR3OCpVp4B3ytL3naOh002McQqOFcQDq5RrZ5GwpN0I7JetmrqMMpDj8DSk
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 20, 2020, 08:49:42 PM
Negative US oil prices


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-52350082?__twitter_impression=true&fbclid=IwAR3XnWMKVXCyPrGRawl6wmsHJ34-0aZIScLIux3vX_oJWZS9GEQ6TZyMuMM
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 20, 2020, 08:59:35 PM
Wondering when we are going to introduce a hose pipe ban. Can't remember a March/April period with so little rain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 20, 2020, 09:48:35 PM
How will we notice?


https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-52352150?__twitter_impression=true&fbclid=IwAR3bL62i4VONs12GqDcBBv755jQ4eR7qgUmgj_6Mfx0ebuiritaxRNIQJaU
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on April 21, 2020, 07:06:19 AM
My friend managed to sit up today!
That is bad news indeed. I wonder how his children have fared if they have not had the regular childhood vaccinations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 21, 2020, 07:21:41 AM
That is bad news indeed. I wonder how his children have fared if they have not had the regular childhood vaccinations.
I think you quoted the wrong post! Did you mean the one about Djocovic?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on April 21, 2020, 08:16:05 AM
I think you quoted the wrong post! Did you mean the one about Djocovic?

thank you very much for the correction -  yes, you are right.

My apologies to NS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 21, 2020, 08:34:43 AM
My friend managed to sit up today!
Good news!  ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 21, 2020, 08:41:03 AM
thank you very much for the correction -  yes, you are right.

My apologies to NS.
No problem, I assumed that is what happened. O don't know if Djokovic is anti vax in principle,or whether it s just against the proposed compulsory vaccination here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 21, 2020, 10:00:31 AM

The figures for overall deaths show the impact of the virus far more clearly than the daily death figures

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52361519
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 21, 2020, 10:16:53 AM
The figures for overall deaths show the impact of the virus far more clearly than the daily death figures

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52361519

I have just seen that. :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on April 21, 2020, 01:59:19 PM
If by some remote and extremely unlikely chance, I was infected by the virus by someone coming into the house to mend something, how long does it take for the symptoms to show? I tried the website but I can't negotiate it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 21, 2020, 02:26:38 PM
If by some remote and extremely unlikely chance, I was infected by the virus by someone coming into the house to mend something, how long does it take for the symptoms to show? I tried the website but I can't negotiate it.

The incubation period (the time before symptoms begin to show) varies between 1 and 14 days, with an average of about 5 days. However, it is possible be asymptomatic so someone could have covid and recover without noticing any symptoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on April 21, 2020, 03:13:02 PM
The incubation period (the time before symptoms begin to show) varies between 1 and 14 days, with an average of about 5 days. However, it is possible be asymptomatic so someone could have covid and recover without noticing any symptoms.
Thannk you. Someone came here today and vacuumed the downstairs fllor. - which really needed doing. She was wearing a mask. My cleaner is down in Somerset.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 21, 2020, 03:41:53 PM
Coronavirus infects the lungs. The two main symptoms are a fever or a dry cough, which can sometimes lead to breathing problems.
The cough to look out for is a new, continuous cough. This means coughing a lot for more than an hour, or having three or more coughing episodes in 24 hours. If you usually have a cough, it may be worse than usual.
You have a fever if your temperature is above 37.8C. This can make you feel warm, cold or shivery.
A sore throat, headache and diarrhoea have also been reported and a loss of smell and taste may also be a symptom.
It takes five days on average to start showing the symptoms, but some people will get them much later. The World Health Organization (WHO) says the incubation period lasts up to 14 days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on April 21, 2020, 06:22:56 PM
Coronavirus infects the lungs. The two main symptoms are a fever or a dry cough, which can sometimes lead to breathing problems.
The cough to look out for is a new, continuous cough. This means coughing a lot for more than an hour, or having three or more coughing episodes in 24 hours. If you usually have a cough, it may be worse than usual.
You have a fever if your temperature is above 37.8C. This can make you feel warm, cold or shivery.
A sore throat, headache and diarrhoea have also been reported and a loss of smell and taste may also be a symptom.
It takes five days on average to start showing the symptoms, but some people will get them much later. The World Health Organization (WHO) says the incubation period lasts up to 14 days.

Thank you, LR. I knew the symptoms, but couldn't remember the info about the 7 or 14 days. I'm not listening to the news any more.

I wouldn't b able to take my temperature even if I thought I had one!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on April 21, 2020, 08:27:21 PM
Coronavirus infects the lungs. The two main symptoms are a fever or a dry cough, which can sometimes lead to breathing problems.
The cough to look out for is a new, continuous cough. This means coughing a lot for more than an hour, or having three or more coughing episodes in 24 hours. If you usually have a cough, it may be worse than usual.
You have a fever if your temperature is above 37.8C. This can make you feel warm, cold or shivery.
A sore throat, headache and diarrhoea have also been reported and a loss of smell and taste may also be a symptom.
It takes five days on average to start showing the symptoms, but some people will get them much later. The World Health Organization (WHO) says the incubation period lasts up to 14 days.


Been recently reading here and there that this virus can present even more symptoms than previously expected. The virus sometimes concentrates in a different place like the brain (the worst one, which causes a rapid degeneration of brain function), the heart and vascular system, the kidneys.  Yesterday, I read that dermatologists are seeing an increase in a frost-bite kind of condition in mainly children that is another manifestation of COVID-19. Governor Cuomo of NY is so right when he calls this virus "The Beast."
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 21, 2020, 08:50:19 PM
Cheering story


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-52369708
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 22, 2020, 08:25:03 AM
Cheering story


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-52369708

That is good news. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on April 22, 2020, 09:04:59 AM
https://t.co/YPPhk6f4ms

Scary estimate by FT of 41 000 deaths in UK, many outside hospital.   Let's hope this is inaccurate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 22, 2020, 09:19:25 AM
https://t.co/YPPhk6f4ms

Scary estimate by FT of 41 000 deaths in UK, many outside hospital.   Let's hope this is inaccurate.
It seems logically argued for.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 22, 2020, 09:31:20 AM
https://t.co/YPPhk6f4ms

Scary estimate by FT of 41 000 deaths in UK, many outside hospital.   Let's hope this is inaccurate.

Yes but it's not based on anything. It's based on extrapolating the total excess deaths between mid March and April 10th to today in a straight line. They don't give any justification for doing that.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 22, 2020, 10:32:31 AM
Yes but it's not based on anything. It's based on extrapolating the total excess deaths between mid March and April 10th to today in a straight line. They don't give any justification for doing that.
There's some more detail here

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1252841436317315072.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 22, 2020, 10:48:50 AM
There's some more detail here

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1252841436317315072.html

It's assumption 3 that I am sceptical about. The "stable pattern" could change over time. For example, there are probably excess deaths caused by people being unable to get the treatment they need due to hospital capacity being overloaded. As the Nightingale hospitals come on line and the peak of people in hospital seems to have been passed, the number of people unable to get the treatment they need should decrease.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 22, 2020, 11:06:37 AM
There's some more detail here

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1252841436317315072.html

Seems like a reasonable approach.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 22, 2020, 11:14:45 AM
It's assumption 3 that I am sceptical about. The "stable pattern" could change over time. For example, there are probably excess deaths caused by people being unable to get the treatment they need due to hospital capacity being overloaded. As the Nightingale hospitals come on line and the peak of people in hospital seems to have been passed, the number of people unable to get the treatment they need should decrease.

Is there any evidence of the capacity being overloaded and people being unable to get treatment? In general the lock down measures have suppressed covid infections so that they have not - the Nightingale hospitals have been little used (just as well if they can't be staffed).

There is evidence of people not presenting at hospital due to fear of infection.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 22, 2020, 11:29:33 AM
Anyone else read the Tony Blair strategy document?

Linked from:

https://institute.global/policy/sustainable-exit-strategy-managing-uncertainty-minimising-harm

Seems a reasonable plan, well set out. Shame that no-one listens to anything TB says nowadays - but why can't the gov. just explain how they are going to go about doing anything?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on April 22, 2020, 12:17:19 PM
Anyone else read the Tony Blair strategy document?

Linked from:

https://institute.global/policy/sustainable-exit-strategy-managing-uncertainty-minimising-harm

Seems a reasonable plan, well set out. Shame that no-one listens to anything TB says nowadays - but why can't the gov. just explain how they are going to go about doing anything?

I thought that the govt are nervous in case people realize that the only way out is either a vaccine, or relentless test and trace.  The first is a long way off, and the second is beyond the capacity of this government.  I guess they will hope that a partial unlock will work, but 500 fresh cases can easily multiply to 10 000, such is the relentless nature of exponential growth.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 22, 2020, 01:06:06 PM
Is there any evidence of the capacity being overloaded and people being unable to get treatment? In general the lock down measures have suppressed covid infections so that they have not - the Nightingale hospitals have been little used (just as well if they can't be staffed).

There is evidence of people not presenting at hospital due to fear of infection.

In the latest report from the ONS there were approximately 10,000 excess deaths of which about 6,000 were connected to coronavirus i.e. had coronavirus mentioned on the death certificate. So 4,000 people extra died without apparently having coronavirus. Why? Well we don't know. But if we don't know what the cause is, is it reasonable to extrapolate that the proportion will remain the same? Maybe but maybe not. It's not as if the environment hasn't changed.

You just have to take these predictions with a pinch of salt, that is all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 22, 2020, 01:10:27 PM
but why can't the gov. just explain how they are going to go about doing anything?

Because they don't know. Following the turkey PPE fiasco, I am of the opinion that they are running around like headless chickens and the most concerted effort is going into putting a brave face on for the public.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 22, 2020, 01:50:01 PM
Marina Hyde on Richard Branson. The first paragraph is excellent


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/21/richard-branson-bailout?fbclid=IwAR0IkoGJ7dO8uf_Va3y2aH9NFM3nC4OZsEd7oaD-efENOjF-uJaeP_C885o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 22, 2020, 02:38:37 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52378845

A second wave of the coronavirus in the US could be much worse than the first, apparently they have already had 800,000 cases in that country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 22, 2020, 04:57:18 PM
My friend has been off the ventilator for 24 hours and manged to sit on a chair for a short time. They are talking about her being moved out from the ITU into the High Dependency Unit in a few days!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 22, 2020, 05:00:55 PM
My friend has been off the ventilator for 24 hours and manged to sit on a chair for a short time. They are talking about her being moved out from the ITU into the High Dependency Unit in a few days!!!

Very good news. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 22, 2020, 05:05:41 PM
My friend has been off the ventilator for 24 hours and manged to sit on a chair for a short time. They are talking about her being moved out from the ITU into the High Dependency Unit in a few days!!!
Brilliant news. We need it right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 22, 2020, 05:49:45 PM
My friend has been off the ventilator for 24 hours and manged to sit on a chair for a short time. They are talking about her being moved out from the ITU into the High Dependency Unit in a few days!!!

Excellent!😊
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Enki on April 22, 2020, 09:27:47 PM
Hope all goes well, NS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 22, 2020, 09:39:09 PM
Hope all goes well, NS.
Thanks. It's going to be a long slow road.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on April 23, 2020, 01:19:56 AM
My friend has been off the ventilator for 24 hours and manged to sit on a chair for a short time. They are talking about her being moved out from the ITU into the High Dependency Unit in a few days!!!

This is very good news. Hoping for a complete recovery.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52378845

A second wave of the coronavirus in the US could be much worse than the first, apparently they have already had 800,000 cases in that country.

I think this has mainly to do with predictions.  All the Conservatives under Trump's lead are pushing to go back to normal while disregarding all the evidence that indicates doing so as they hope to will cause a second wave of cases that could be worse than the first. One thing's for sure: Governor Cuomo of New York is not willing to do that, and Trump doesn't like that!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 23, 2020, 07:38:08 AM
Book about lockdown because of a virus that was rejected for being too ridiculous is published


https://www.scotsman.com/news/people/scottish-authors-novel-lockdown-rejected-being-ridiculous-published-2543181?fbclid=IwAR1wsc1GTY5OIJnHijork6gAnsYlLPo8RkkAst3ULv1qvurWTK1l9dl6GKQ
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 23, 2020, 07:53:46 AM
'Scotsman' article from yesterday about how long lockdown is likely to last ("most new" instead of "newest": is that a scotticism?)  https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus/when-will-coronavirus-end-how-long-covid-19-restrictions-are-expected-last-uk-2481849
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 23, 2020, 08:28:36 AM
When the lock down is eventually eased it should be businesses that are important, which are opened first, the leisure industry can wait, imo. A second round of Covid-19 could be even worse than the first, which is bad enough.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 23, 2020, 08:40:34 AM
Businesses that are important are already open. Pubs are important morale-boosters.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 23, 2020, 09:08:46 AM
Businesses that are important are already open. Pubs are important morale-boosters.

Pubs are one of the least important places, which should be opened anytime soon, people drink far too much, imo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 23, 2020, 09:12:18 AM
Pubs are one of the least important places, which should be opened anytime soon, people drink far too much, imo.
You are the ultimate solipsist. anything you dislike or disapprove of ought to be banned, or at the very least doesn't matter, and objective arguments have no impact on you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 23, 2020, 09:23:11 AM
When the lock down is eventually eased it should be businesses that are important, which are opened first, the leisure industry can wait, imo. A second round of Covid-19 could be even worse than the first, which is bad enough.
Would you support the Govt continuing to pay 80% of the wages for all leisure industry workers currently being supported by the furlough scheme until they are allowed to open?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 23, 2020, 09:28:53 AM
Businesses that are important are already open. Pubs are important morale-boosters.

Surprisingly I am not missing pubs at all. I am however missing my Monday Coffee Morning with a group of mainly older gays where we put the world to rights. So add coffee shops to the important morale-boosters list.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 23, 2020, 12:23:26 PM
When the lock down is eventually eased it should be businesses that are important, which are opened first, the leisure industry can wait, imo. A second round of Covid-19 could be even worse than the first, which is bad enough.

The leisure industry is important.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 23, 2020, 12:26:22 PM
Pubs are one of the least important places, which should be opened anytime soon, people drink far too much, imo.

Pubs won't be among the businesses that open first because it's hard to social distance in a pub. In fact, the purpose of a pub is the opposite of social distancing.

However, the thing I really want to do now more than anything else in the world is sit in a pub and have a beer with my brother. I vote for them being reopened as soon as it is safe-ish to do so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 23, 2020, 01:55:53 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-52395771

Threats of murder have been made to some 5G engineers. You have to be mentally deranged if you believe these masts are causing Covid-19!  >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on April 23, 2020, 03:14:35 PM
The leisure industry is important.
It most certainly is. It keeps me out of the doctor's surgery,  and gives me a routine of something I can organise and do independently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 23, 2020, 05:08:35 PM
Pubs won't be among the businesses that open first because it's hard to social distance in a pub. In fact, the purpose of a pub is the opposite of social distancing.

However, the thing I really want to do now more than anything else in the world is sit in a pub and have a beer with my brother. I vote for them being reopened as soon as it is safe-ish to do so.

Indeed. I miss the pub but it has to be safe. So there has to be some restrictions. Maybe restricted openning hours can that, I don't know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 23, 2020, 05:16:26 PM
Our head of our health and welfare institute said today that a majority of the population need to get the virus so that we can be safe. This was just his opinion and not government policy but I just can't agree with that opinion. It puts all the burden on the risk groups to self isolate. Totally cut off from normal society. Exit strategies have to include risk groups.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: torridon on April 23, 2020, 05:26:10 PM
Our head of our health and welfare institute said today that a majority of the population need to get the virus so that we can be safe. This was just his opinion and not government policy but I just can't agree with that opinion. It puts all the burden on the risk groups to self isolate. Totally cut off from normal society. Exit strategies have to include risk groups.

That was UK policy briefly, herd immunity.  We had to drop it when data from Italy revealed a hospitalisation rate that would have overwhelmed the health service.  Add to that, the fact that the more the virus spreads, the more opportunities it has to mutate, and that risks new strains emerging that could be more infectious, or more lethal, or both. High risk strategy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 23, 2020, 06:06:43 PM
That was UK policy briefly, herd immunity.  We had to drop it when data from Italy revealed a hospitalisation rate that would have overwhelmed the health service.  Add to that, the fact that the more the virus spreads, the more opportunities it has to mutate, and that risks new strains emerging that could be more infectious, or more lethal, or both. High risk strategy.
It still is UK policy. If you want the virus to go away, herd immunity will be the only way to stop it given how infectious it is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 23, 2020, 06:26:59 PM
It still is UK policy. If you want the virus to go away, herd immunity will be the only way to stop it given how infectious it is.

Except of course that as yet, they are not sure that infection confers immunity. And as has been pointed out before herd immunity is fine when arrived at by vaccine, not so easily done by way of hundreds of thousands of deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 23, 2020, 06:30:03 PM
That was UK policy briefly, herd immunity.  We had to drop it when data from Italy revealed a hospitalisation rate that would have overwhelmed the health service.  Add to that, the fact that the more the virus spreads, the more opportunities it has to mutate, and that risks new strains emerging that could be more infectious, or more lethal, or both. High risk strategy.

Indeed. Very risky. Sweden is a good example.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 23, 2020, 06:31:00 PM
It still is UK policy. If you want the virus to go away, herd immunity will be the only way to stop it given how infectious it is.

Vaccine!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 23, 2020, 06:37:01 PM
Vaccine!
If we aren't sure that having had the virus confers immunity, then that undermined a working vaccine, and will extend any testing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 23, 2020, 07:01:07 PM
Except of course that as yet, they are not sure that infection confers immunity. And as has been pointed out before herd immunity is fine when arrived at by vaccine, not so easily done by way of hundreds of thousands of deaths.
A vaccine is many months away and is, of course, also a form of herd immunity in itself. The lockdown strategy is all about slowing the rate of infection to levels manageable by the NHS. Don’t fool yourself into thinking it’s about anything more than containment until we can achieve herd immunity or find some other effective treatment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 23, 2020, 07:03:09 PM
Vaccine!
That’s herd immunity but at lower risk than catching the disease.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on April 23, 2020, 08:20:24 PM
Indeed. Very risky. Sweden is a good example.
I saw this morning that they have a population of 10 million, and 2,000 deaths from coronavirus. That is lower than the proportion of deaths in England relative to its population. Also, the daily death toll has been diminishing from about 100 to about 20 over the last 2 weeks:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Sweden

So, risky, yes, but they expect to reach herd immunity within weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 23, 2020, 08:32:10 PM
A vaccine is many months away and is, of course, also a form of herd immunity in itself. The lockdown strategy is all about slowing the rate of infection to levels manageable by the NHS. Don’t fool yourself into thinking it’s about anything more than containment until we can achieve herd immunity or find some other effective treatment.

I'm not fooling myself. I just don't see an easy way out currently.

I have heard much talk about shielding the vulnerable lately, which as far as I can see is anyone over 60 or with a condition that makes them more likely to be seriously ill (or die) from the virus.

Even if that is possible and long term it sounds really difficult to sustain, the health service is still going to be at full stretch if the rest of the population is let out of lockdown in some way. The virus really is not that predictable and we would still be suffering huge numbers ill and dying in the lower age groups, with the strain that will put on the NHS - not to mention the add on deaths from the postponement of cancer treatments and all the other diseases we also need to be focusing on.

Having read all that, I think what I am trying to say is that unless we get a vaccine or efficient treatment of the symptoms by medication then we are fucked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 23, 2020, 08:49:50 PM
I saw this morning that they have a population of 10 million, and 2,000 deaths from coronavirus. That is lower than the proportion of deaths in England relative to its population. Also, the daily death toll has been diminishing from about 100 to about 20 over the last 2 weeks:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Sweden

So, risky, yes, but they expect to reach herd immunity within weeks.

The deaths seem to go in waves. Today was about 80 deaths, I think, but the day before that was about 170 and the day before that about 180. Deaths per million are 200, that's somwhere between that of the USA and the UK. Compared to the other Nordic countries that's about 3 times as much as Denmark and about 6-7 times as much as Norway or Finland. So not good.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on April 23, 2020, 09:03:55 PM
The deaths deem to go in waves. Today was about 80 deaths, I think, but the day before that was about 170 and the day before that about 180. Deaths per million are 200, that's somwhere between that of the USA and the UK. Compared to the other Nordic countries that's about 3 times as much as Denmark and about 6-7 times as much as Norway or Finland. So not good.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Strange - the table on the wiki page shows 18 new deaths today. Still, whether lockdown is or isn't slowing the infection and mortality rate, it is certainly having a huge effect on pollution in cities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 23, 2020, 10:26:41 PM
The leisure industry is important.
Yes, it is, but not in the short term. Schools are even more important, but they've closed temporarily.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 23, 2020, 10:31:02 PM
Yes, it is, but not in the short term. Schools are even more important, but they've closed temporarily.
Which is a false dichotomy. At no point did jp make a comparison with schools, or suggest they are not important.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 23, 2020, 10:34:35 PM
Which is a false dichotomy. At no point did jp make a comparison with schools, or suggest they are not important.
It isn't a dichotomy at all, and I didn't suggest that JP did make that comparison. I made it, to point out that something can be important in the medium-to-long term, but less so in the short term. Stop picking arguments for the sake of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 23, 2020, 10:40:08 PM
It isn't a dichotomy at all, and I didn't suggest that JP did make that comparison. I made it, to point out that something can be important in the medium-to-long term, but less so in the short term. Stop picking arguments for the sake of it.
You presented it as a dichotomy. If you don't want to be picked up on that you need to write better and clearer. Stop attributing motivation to others because you are not able to express yourself clearly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 23, 2020, 10:50:04 PM
You presented it as a dichotomy. If you don't want to be picked up on that you need to write better and clearer. Stop attributing motivation to others because you are not able to express yourself clearly.
Do you even know what "dichotomy" means? It means a contrast between two things which are different. I was comparing two things which are, in the relevant respect, the same.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 23, 2020, 10:59:58 PM
Do you even know what "dichotomy" means? It means a contrast between two things which are different. I was comparing two things which are, in the relevant respect, the same.
You really struggle with this sort of basic concept. You added another thing and then portrayed jeremyp as arguing against the second idea. That is the fecking definition of a false dichotomy. Learn to think a bit.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 23, 2020, 11:20:05 PM

Maybe this is fake news but it seems so easy to believe

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/494305-hhs-secretary-faces-heat-over-naming-aide-with-little-public-health?fbclid=IwAR0rxU2aL-CAGBpQyzrQusIsNFBnq0e0v0wRfKaVwaSdv1PlPTpx1cA8Qrk
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 24, 2020, 06:57:54 AM
You really struggle with this sort of basic concept. You added another thing and then portrayed jeremyp as arguing against the second idea. That is the fecking definition of a false dichotomy. Learn to think a bit.
Completely wrong from start to finish. You are as ignorant as you are rude, and as rude as you are childish.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on April 24, 2020, 07:03:47 AM
We are so fortunate that the most powerful and richest country in the world has a chief executive who can think so creatively ...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52407177

And his ability to express complex, innovative and revolutionary ideas in such a simple and direct manner is so refreshing ...

Quote
"And then I see the disinfectant where it knocks it out in a minute. One minute. And is there a way we can do something like that, by injection inside or almost a cleaning?

"So it'd be interesting to check that."

Pointing to his head, Mr Trump went on: "I'm not a doctor. But I'm, like, a person that has a good you-know-what."

He will, surely, go down in history as one of the great masters of the English language.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 24, 2020, 07:13:10 AM
The USA is not the world's richest country by per capita gnp, the only sensible measure; it is either Qatar or Liechtenstein, depending on who's doing the measuring. The USA is 10th, 11th, or 13th.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 24, 2020, 07:37:27 AM
Completely wrong from start to finish. You are as ignorant as you are rude, and as rude as you are childish.
I may well be rude. I am also right. I have put the argument explaining why. You have merely asserted that I am wrong with no explanation.

And as for getting on your high horse about manners, stop being a hypocrite.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 24, 2020, 07:51:03 AM
You obviously don't know the meaning of "hypocrite", either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 24, 2020, 07:57:35 AM
You obviously don't know the meaning of "hypocrite", either.
Thank you for succinctly  proving my point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 24, 2020, 08:01:10 AM
The USA is not the world's richest country by per capita gnp, the only sensible measure; it is either Qatar or Liechtenstein, depending on who's doing the measuring. The USA is 10th, 11th, or 13th.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

It's not really a sensible measure when it comes to global power though. The USA as a nation state has because of the size of its overall GDP the ability to spend on armaments that Qatar and Liechtenstein do not. In that sense which was how HH was obviously using it, he was correct.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 24, 2020, 08:23:43 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52407177

I hope you are all injecting yourselves with disinfectant to keep the virus away? The latest advice from the White House lunatic! >:( >:( >:( Unfortunately the very gullible may believe his 'pearls of wisdom' and do just that, killing themselves in the process! :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 24, 2020, 09:34:46 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52407177

I hope you are all injecting yourselves with disinfectant to keep the virus away? The latest advice from the White House lunatic! >:( >:( >:( Unfortunately the very gullible may believe his 'pearls of wisdom' and do just that, killing themselves in the process! :o
You first, Donald...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 24, 2020, 03:04:44 PM
I'm not fooling myself. I just don't see an easy way out currently.

I have heard much talk about shielding the vulnerable lately, which as far as I can see is anyone over 60 or with a condition that makes them more likely to be seriously ill (or die) from the virus.

Even if that is possible and long term it sounds really difficult to sustain, the health service is still going to be at full stretch if the rest of the population is let out of lockdown in some way. The virus really is not that predictable and we would still be suffering huge numbers ill and dying in the lower age groups, with the strain that will put on the NHS - not to mention the add on deaths from the postponement of cancer treatments and all the other diseases we also need to be focusing on.

Having read all that, I think what I am trying to say is that unless we get a vaccine or efficient treatment of the symptoms by medication then we are fucked.

There is another way and that is strict contact tracking. But it basically means when somebody gets ill, everybody they have been in contact with has to be tracked down and tested and isolated if they have the disease. I believe that is how South Korea is managing the disease. It seems to have worked for them, but it would be much more difficult for us unless we reduce the number of cases significantly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 24, 2020, 03:06:42 PM
Which is a false dichotomy. At no point did jp make a comparison with schools, or suggest they are not important.

Nor did I suggest it is wrong for it to be shut down at the moment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 24, 2020, 03:16:44 PM
It isn't a dichotomy at all, and I didn't suggest that JP did make that comparison.
To be honest, it did sort of look like you were saying that, but now you've clarified it, I accept that I misinterpreted your post.

Quote
I made it, to point out that something can be important in the medium-to-long term, but less so in the short term. Stop picking arguments for the sake of it.
It is all about priorities. Right now the priority is to prevent the NHS from collapsing, because, if it did, it would cost many more lives than it is at the moment. However, once that danger is past, we'll be able to open up other activities. Schools will probably be first but then some parts of the leisure industry can be looked at amongst other things. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 24, 2020, 03:19:44 PM
We are so fortunate that the most powerful and richest country in the world has a chief executive who can think so creatively ...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52407177

And his ability to express complex, innovative and revolutionary ideas in such a simple and direct manner is so refreshing ...

He will, surely, go down in history as one of the great masters of the English language.

Well I suppose the good news is that, if his supporters follow his advice, his vote in November will collapse. On the other hand, there will be a lot of bodies to clear away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on April 24, 2020, 03:23:28 PM
I'd like to hear one of these people who talk about tracking to explain how they could track people who do not have fancy phones and only have a simple mobile phone which is turned off all the time unless required to phone for a taxi. And have no intention of buying said fancy smart phone - can't use them anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 24, 2020, 03:24:18 PM
The USA is not the world's richest country by per capita gnp, the only sensible measure; it is either Qatar or Liechtenstein, depending on who's doing the measuring. The USA is 10th, 11th, or 13th.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita
No, but it is the richest country. Its GDP is significantly higher than the second richest country - China - even though it has about a quarter of the population.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 24, 2020, 03:25:09 PM
I'd like to hear one of these people who talk about tracking to explain how they could track people who do not have fancy phones and only have a simple mobile phone which is turned off all the time unless required to phone for a taxi. And have no intention of buying said fancy smart phone - can't use them anyway.
In order to be effective it wouldn't need to have 100% coverage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 24, 2020, 03:27:48 PM
I'd like to hear one of these people who talk about tracking to explain how they could track people who do not have fancy phones and only have a simple mobile phone which is turned off all the time unless required to phone for a taxi. And have no intention of buying said fancy smart phone - can't use them anyway.
They'd have to do it the old fashioned way by asking you who you'd been in contact with.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 24, 2020, 03:28:54 PM
In order to be effective it wouldn't need to have 100% coverage.
Yes. You don't have to stop all infection, only keep R0 below 1.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 24, 2020, 04:15:02 PM
My friend managed to sit up in a chair for a couple of hours today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 24, 2020, 04:32:28 PM
There is another way and that is strict contact tracking. But it basically means when somebody gets ill, everybody they have been in contact with has to be tracked down and tested and isolated if they have the disease. I believe that is how South Korea is managing the disease. It seems to have worked for them, but it would be much more difficult for us unless we reduce the number of cases significantly.

There has been talk that that will be the next strategy for us over here, but it requires a low infection rate and plenty of resources for testing and tracking.  I think for those countries looking for a feasible way out, a so-called hybrib strategy is the way to go: light restrictions and heavy testing/tracking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 24, 2020, 06:17:12 PM
One of my daughters has just sent me a photo of a funeral director's office with a banner on the window, which says, 'Thank You NHS'! WHOOPS!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 24, 2020, 08:03:02 PM
One of my daughters has just sent me a photo of a funeral director's office with a banner on the window, which says, 'Thank You NHS'! WHOOPS!
This one.

https://images.app.goo.gl/CfytVNiShCeB9LE9A
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 24, 2020, 08:54:04 PM

So much for independent scientific advice:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/revealed-dominic-cummings-on-secret-scientific-advisory-group-for-covid-19

Quote
The prime minister’s chief political adviser, Dominic Cummings, and a data scientist he worked with on the Vote Leave campaign for Brexit are on the secret scientific group advising the government on the coronavirus pandemic, according to a list leaked to the Guardian.

It reveals that both Cummings and Ben Warner were among 23 attendees present at a crucial convening of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) on 23 March, the day Boris Johnson announced a nationwide lockdown in a televised address.

Multiple attendees of Sage told the Guardian that both Cummings and Warner had been taking part in meetings of the group as far back as February.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 25, 2020, 08:17:53 AM
This one.

https://images.app.goo.gl/CfytVNiShCeB9LE9A

That is it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 25, 2020, 09:38:24 PM

https://unherd.com/thepost/imperials-prof-neil-ferguson-responds-to-the-swedish-critique/

Unherd interview with Prof Neil Ferguson - partly as a follow up to the interview with  Johan Giesecke posted a couple of days ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: torridon on April 26, 2020, 01:59:30 PM
If you want to assess your personal mortality risk based on age and other health conditions :

https://www.coronavirusrisk.org/risk-calculator/ (https://www.coronavirusrisk.org/risk-calculator/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 26, 2020, 02:39:27 PM
My friend is being moved to the High Dependency Unit this afternoon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 26, 2020, 04:30:23 PM
On my daily walks, seeing as you can't do much else apart from go to work and stay at home I've started Geocaching. Maybe a rucksack with a few sneeky beers. Quite fun but a lot of them are quite hard to find, but that's the point I suppose.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 26, 2020, 08:24:11 PM
On my daily walks, seeing as you can't do much else apart from go to work and stay at home I've started Geocaching. Maybe a rucksack with a few sneeky beers. Quite fun but a lot of them are quite hard to find, but that's the point I suppose.
I used to do a lot of geocaching. Maybe I’ll take it up again during lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 27, 2020, 12:45:10 PM
 My quarantine hair clippers have arrived in the post (at last). Oddly they have introduced me to a new word as part of its contents

Lecythus: a cylindrical or round and squat vase used by the ancient Greeks for oils and ointments.


It doesn't actually contain such a thing but a modernised idea of it.


ETA: I can't swear that I didn't come across it in ancient Greek at some time but never seen it used in English.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 27, 2020, 01:36:34 PM
I have been using hair clippers on our hair for a good number of years, it saves us having to go to the hairdresser/barber. I like my hair very short. Our middle girl has bought clippers too since the lockdown, her husband tried them out on her hair rather unsuccessfully, so I gather, she is now wearing a hat until her hair grows back again. WHOOPS!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 27, 2020, 11:41:54 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/27/gaps-sage-scientific-body-scientists-medical?CM

Yet more proof, if proof were needed, of the complete and utter bollocks that the government is making of this crisis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 28, 2020, 03:20:45 PM
We're all in this together. But it's a lot easier to be in this together, if you've got a nice house, a couple of acres of land and plenty of money.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ih2fsHE1Vf8&feature=emb_logo
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on April 28, 2020, 04:55:18 PM
The hair clippers on sale in Boots the Chemist and other electrical goods shops sell these hair clippers along with combs set at various lengths 12mm, 18mm, 25mm and other measurements that can be affixed to the clippers very easily and they take virtually no skill to attach or use.

Once you have chosen the length comb you're happy with start clipping away all over your head from every angle you can think of with that comb, of the appropriate length, you've chosen attached to your clippers until you can hear and see the clippers are no longer cutting any more hair from your head you're done.

All you need now is to take the comb off of the clippers and then sit down on a convenient chair and get a trusted friend to trim all around the back of your head for you with the now, combless clippers, all the bits you can't get to.

These clippers my ones are Remington's clippers from Boots and the combs I've been referring to come with the clippers and when you see them it becomes obvious how to attach them, they're quiet simple to use, I've cut my own hair for years and have obviously set the trend in hair style around here for years too, my wife does all of the trimming for me after I've done my top knot.

I must check where my shares in Remington are at the moment.

Seriously I go for a short all over nice and tidy and doesn't dangle in the eyes haircut, why pay, I don't know know, say £20 when you can buy a pair of these clippers for somewhere around £10 to £15 and after two or three haircuts you've got your money back, no sitting around waiting your turn.

Hope this is a help for some of you and all the best, ippy.     
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on April 28, 2020, 04:57:38 PM
I find the Wahl clippers are the best ones.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 28, 2020, 05:17:55 PM
I cut my own barnet and facial hair using clippers. Easy peasy. Just set it to the shortest setting and Bob's your uncle. 15 minute job. I think it's a Remington, can't remember now, but it's got titanium teeth and you don't need to sharpen them or oil them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 28, 2020, 09:34:26 PM
My friend has had the tracheostomy removed  and had first solid food in 3 and a half weeks. Plan is to move her from the High Dependency Unit to normal ward in 2 days. Dancing round the room.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: torridon on April 29, 2020, 08:19:47 AM
Yay  :)  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on April 29, 2020, 08:40:52 AM
The hair clippers on sale in Boots the Chemist and other electrical goods shops sell these hair clippers along with combs...
Seriously I go for a short all over nice and tidy and doesn't dangle in the eyes haircut, why pay, I don't know know, say £20 when you can buy a pair of these clippers for somewhere around £10 to £15 and after two or three haircuts you've got your money back, no sitting around waiting your turn.
Exactly. You can also get a 1.5" comb, I even got a 2" one shipped from the US.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 30, 2020, 01:38:12 PM
And my friend is being moved to normal respiratory ward this afternoon
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 30, 2020, 05:25:15 PM

Good news if correct

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-patients-cant-relapse-south-korean-scientists-believe-rkm8zm7d9?fbclid=IwAR0anm6gBKhtHflFjVG0lkQu2-b-zowC7LUgxKMLPim0BQNV06R3wzqjKyw
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 01, 2020, 03:21:24 PM
I see that idiot, David Icke, has been removed from Facebook, for making false statements about Covid-19.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52501453
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 01, 2020, 03:54:45 PM
And, of course:

https://www.hsj.co.uk/quality-and-performance/revealed-how-government-changed-the-rules-to-hit-100000-tests-target/7027544.article
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 01, 2020, 04:30:54 PM
I see that idiot, David Icke, has been removed from Facebook, for making false statements about Covid-19.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52501453
Mentally ill, I think, rather than idiotic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 01, 2020, 05:02:15 PM
Mentally ill, I think, rather than idiotic.

That is possible. It is even sadder some people actually believe the garbage he spouts!  :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 01, 2020, 05:13:25 PM
Mentally ill, I think, rather than idiotic.
He makes a living out it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 02, 2020, 08:30:10 AM
Interesting article on the effect on diagnostics

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/01/demand-for-coronavirus-tests-raises-concerns-over-hiv-and-malaria?fbclid=IwAR0rSHpOk4a1o1wMLR46cc23j_Zcb2-KqDUKBSqfaEsdGna5fU-y9TYl9N4
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ekim on May 02, 2020, 10:05:30 AM
.....and another one .....  https://tinyurl.com/ya2g98lu
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 03, 2020, 09:54:57 AM
Article on some changes in Glasgow to allow social distancing, suspect this will be happening in most places


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-52506154?fbclid=IwAR3R5eSL26yC30GBABqVei0MeiUsrLddoN20NuQrMDWiXb8FetnHk0ihWdc
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on May 03, 2020, 10:29:53 AM
.....and another one .....  https://tinyurl.com/ya2g98lu


Yes...besides strokes, there are many patients whose kidneys have been affected. There was one woman in California whose heart is said to have burst open (literally). 

Covid 19 seems to cause very serious damage in some cases....but in most cases it seems to produce only mild symptoms. Very erratic virus....!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on May 03, 2020, 10:37:08 AM


What happens if a vaccine is never developed....?  I believe this is a real possibility.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/03/health/coronavirus-vaccine-never-developed-intl/index.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 03, 2020, 10:38:52 AM
We'll eventually get to herd immunity, presumably, and the disease will live on at a low level as a permanent feature of life.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 03, 2020, 11:38:05 AM
Covid toe!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52493574
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 03, 2020, 11:43:24 AM
Covid-19 seems to be the strangest virus humans have ever encountered. :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 03, 2020, 11:49:28 AM

'Some of my best friends are Jewish'

https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premium-arbeit-macht-frei-nazi-slogans-at-illinois-rally-against-coronovirus-lockdown-1.8815257?fbclid=IwAR1Erh6D-oxFJSu0YZe6oug_DwedxJM2Ux32Xm2UVmUkjyzVStVFjnC7Ndo
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 03, 2020, 12:05:57 PM
'Some of my best friends are Jewish'

https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premium-arbeit-macht-frei-nazi-slogans-at-illinois-rally-against-coronovirus-lockdown-1.8815257?fbclid=IwAR1Erh6D-oxFJSu0YZe6oug_DwedxJM2Ux32Xm2UVmUkjyzVStVFjnC7Ndo
As far as I can tell, every other country is putting up with lockdown, however grudgingly, on the whole. Only the yanks are kicking up a stink about it on a big scale, all in the name of liberty, of course. Frankly, I think the yanks over-fetishise liberty.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 03, 2020, 12:24:47 PM
As far as I can tell, every other country is putting up with lockdown, however grudgingly, on the whole. Only the yanks are kicking up a stink about it on a big scale, all in the name of liberty, of course. Frankly, I think the yanks over-fetishise liberty.

You haven't been observing lockdown by cycling out of your home district for exercise, which you aren't permitted to do. ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 03, 2020, 12:29:44 PM
You haven't been observing lockdown by cycling out of your home district for exercise, which you aren't permitted to do. ::)
We are allowed to cycle as exercise, and I don't go more than about 15 miles from home, and I observe social distancing, and mind your own bloody business.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 03, 2020, 01:02:05 PM
Covid-19 seems to be the strangest virus humans have ever encountered. :o

Or...

The virus is fairly simple and has just picked up a handy mechanism that helps it invade human respiratory cells.

It's humans that are complicated and strange.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 03, 2020, 01:45:28 PM
This could be interesting, Sir David King is setting up an alternative to SAGE:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8281751/Former-chief-scientific-adviser-sets-rival-Sage.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 03, 2020, 01:46:36 PM
Facetime lonely eels


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-asia-52512656/garden-eels-need-help-to-remember-human-faces
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 03, 2020, 03:14:32 PM
We'll eventually get to herd immunity, presumably, and the disease will live on at a low level as a permanent feature of life.
There’s no guarantee of herd immunity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 03, 2020, 03:17:37 PM
As far as I can tell, every other country is putting up with lockdown, however grudgingly, on the whole. Only the yanks are kicking up a stink about it on a big scale, all in the name of liberty, of course. Frankly, I think the yanks over-fetishise liberty.
There have been some protests in the USA but they are not as widespread or well supported as the media makes it appear. Most of the protests have been from just a handful of people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on May 03, 2020, 03:21:49 PM
There’s no guarantee of herd immunity.

I thought the issue of immunity hasn't been resolved for people who've had the virus.  Also, if herd immunity does exist in the future, how many deaths would also occur?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 03, 2020, 03:30:58 PM
I thought the issue of immunity hasn't been resolved for people who've had the virus.  Also, if herd immunity does exist in the future, how many deaths would also occur?
I doubt we will have it completely resolved but the news has been better of late

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-patients-cant-relapse-south-korean-scientists-believe-rkm8zm7d9?fbclid=IwAR0anm6gBKhtHflFjVG0lkQu2-b-zowC7LUgxKMLPim0BQNV06R3wzqjKyw
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 03, 2020, 03:32:21 PM
There have been some protests in the USA but they are not as widespread or well supported as the media makes it appear. Most of the protests have been from just a handful of people.
And some protests here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 03, 2020, 03:47:07 PM
I thought the issue of immunity hasn't been resolved for people who've had the virus.  Also, if herd immunity does exist in the future, how many deaths would also occur?

There seems to be a level of immunity (with earlier suspected cases of re-infection now having been discounted). But we don't yet know if immunity is likely to last over a long period or over virus changes. Neither do we know of any long term complications that might be caused by infection.

If the disease persists in the long term we will get used to it as just a another condition tackled with a variety of drugs where needed.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 03, 2020, 03:58:22 PM
There seems to be a level of immunity (with earlier suspected cases of re-infection now having been discounted). But we don't yet know if immunity is likely to last over a long period or over virus changes. Neither do we know of any long term complications that might be caused by infection.

If the disease persists in the long term we will get used to it as just a another condition tackled with a variety of drugs where needed.

We also don't know that there aren't long term complications for obvious reasons. My friend who has had a serious bout of it has had lots of damage to her lungs and heart and if is not clear that will completely heal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 03, 2020, 04:17:55 PM
We also don't know that there aren't long term complications for obvious reasons. My friend who has had a serious bout of it has had lots of damage to her lungs and heart and if is not clear that will completely heal.

Yes, from reports, a serious attack can be a major trauma even without needing to go onto ventilator. Hope she does have a rapid recovery.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 03, 2020, 06:02:56 PM
Yes, from reports, a serious attack can be a major trauma even without needing to go onto ventilator. Hope she does have a rapid recovery.
So the current prognosis is another 2 months in hospital and 18 months physio after that. But today she asked for their netflix password and that small thing feels so feckin important
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on May 05, 2020, 10:32:43 AM

Some hope...?!

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-scientists-hail-groundbreaking-discovery-of-antibody-which-prevents-infection-11982809
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 05, 2020, 10:57:20 AM

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/vote-leave-ai-firm-wins-seven-government-contracts-in-18-months

Although I do see mobile technology using a smatphone app as a (partial) solution  or at least an aid in contact tracing, it can't possibly work unless it is trusted. I don't think the NHSX app can be.

What is needed is an open source app based on the decentralized Apple/Google framework, that is interoperable worldwide.     

Also see:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/04/uk-government-using-crisis-to-transfer-nhs-duties-to-private-sector

UK government clearly gaming the pandemic and handing out sweeties to their mates.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on May 05, 2020, 01:57:44 PM

Israel also claims a breakthrough. 

https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/coronavirus-israel-claims-breakthrough-that-can-neutralise-covid-19-1.1014995
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 05, 2020, 02:34:40 PM
Israel also claims a breakthrough. 

https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/coronavirus-israel-claims-breakthrough-that-can-neutralise-covid-19-1.1014995

That would be fantastic if it works.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on May 05, 2020, 02:55:10 PM
Israel also claims a breakthrough. 

https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/coronavirus-israel-claims-breakthrough-that-can-neutralise-covid-19-1.1014995

There seems to have been some positive news on this front in the last couple of days. Fingers crossed!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 05, 2020, 04:49:40 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/vote-leave-ai-firm-wins-seven-government-contracts-in-18-months

Although I do see mobile technology using a smatphone app as a (partial) solution  or at least an aid in contact tracing, it can't possibly work unless it is trusted. I don't think the NHSX app can be.

What is needed is an open source app based on the decentralized Apple/Google framework, that is interoperable worldwide.   
I think your concerns are unfounded. Here’s how it works

https://www.ncsc.gov.uk/blog-post/security-behind-nhs-contact-tracing-app
Quote
Also see:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/04/uk-government-using-crisis-to-transfer-nhs-duties-to-private-sector

UK government clearly gaming the pandemic and handing out sweeties to their mates.
 
Clearly a completely different issue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on May 05, 2020, 05:23:46 PM
The very kind and helpful Age Concern lady did my shopping at Tesco again for me this morning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 05, 2020, 06:54:38 PM
What a fucking prick Matt Hancock is!


https://www.thedailybeast.com/uk-minister-matt-hancock-tells-mp-rosena-allin-khan-to-watch-her-tone-twitter-tells-him-to-watch-his
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 05, 2020, 07:14:00 PM
What a fucking prick Matt Hancock is!


https://www.thedailybeast.com/uk-minister-matt-hancock-tells-mp-rosena-allin-khan-to-watch-her-tone-twitter-tells-him-to-watch-his

He is, and utterly useless too: thankfully his impact here in Scotland is limited.

John Crace's take: on the button, as usual.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/05/matt-hancocks-career-continues-to-win-the-battle-with-his-conscience
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 05, 2020, 08:14:46 PM
Ffs!


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/exclusive-government-scientist-neil-ferguson-resigns-breaking/?fbclid=IwAR3fqw6hWFgJwf56idzT_zBhyWqTMKIliQ31R7UxP9t4jmYWuvI1VFMxvm8
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 06, 2020, 12:05:33 AM
Hmmm


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/nigel-farage-police-visit-lockdown-restrictions-dover-migrant-report-a9498936.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3tvaapLW0U7WbqRrNmwG-yqEbboRWIS3YxO1Nwpqt9duHYKYZHu65Loqg#Echobox=1588677457
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 06, 2020, 11:12:27 AM
I think your concerns are unfounded. Here’s how it works

https://www.ncsc.gov.uk/blog-post/security-behind-nhs-contact-tracing-app
...


I know how it is supposed to work. People will decide for themselves whether to use it or not unless it is made mandatory. I expect that if it doesn't work we will fall back to the German app/system - losing yet more months.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 06, 2020, 11:16:40 AM
What a fucking prick Matt Hancock is!


https://www.thedailybeast.com/uk-minister-matt-hancock-tells-mp-rosena-allin-khan-to-watch-her-tone-twitter-tells-him-to-watch-his

Yep. A perfectly reasonably put question receives that sort of response. Disgusting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 06, 2020, 11:20:21 AM
Hmmm


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/nigel-farage-police-visit-lockdown-restrictions-dover-migrant-report-a9498936.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3tvaapLW0U7WbqRrNmwG-yqEbboRWIS3YxO1Nwpqt9duHYKYZHu65Loqg#Echobox=1588677457

A pity they didn't lock Farage up and throw away the key. >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 06, 2020, 02:14:04 PM
Theresa May's take. Which I actually agree with.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/theresa-may-criticises-world-response-to-coronavirus-pandemic?fbclid=IwAR1mGJ2GEDRKOd9Hg3oGUKurFrTC4jsXYhq_vIfUamwgF0TlooVTD06Ph-8
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on May 06, 2020, 03:37:59 PM
So do I.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 06, 2020, 03:53:31 PM
Theresa May's take. Which I actually agree with.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/theresa-may-criticises-world-response-to-coronavirus-pandemic?fbclid=IwAR1mGJ2GEDRKOd9Hg3oGUKurFrTC4jsXYhq_vIfUamwgF0TlooVTD06Ph-8

I agree with her general stance, but there is no international framework which allows for the kind of cooperation she wants at anywhere near the speed that is/was needed.

I thought we were doing well when China reported the disease at the start of Jan and the genome sequence in Feb: But that was based on thinking that it had started in late Dec 19 -  in fact the jump to humans probably occurred in mid or late Oct, signals of a new disease seen in Nov, had hit Wuhan in Dec and been hidden for three weeks.
   
By Feb it was already out and spreading vigorously in Europe.
 
There is no international preparedness in terms of medical facilities, quarantine or lockdown procedures, even border or flight restrictions, and medical equipment supplies etc. It is too late to start putting those in place after a fast spreading pandemic has erupted.

Now, when we could do with WW cooperation on production and supply on PPE, test kits and/or lab equipment and contact tracing apps - nothing in place.

Hopefully someone is working on plans for vaccine or antiviral production and distribution on a global scale - ready for one or more being found and tested OK, but who? Bill Gates?
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 06, 2020, 03:54:32 PM
I know how it is supposed to work. People will decide for themselves whether to use it or not unless it is made mandatory. I expect that if it doesn't work we will fall back to the German app/system - losing yet more months.
What makes you think the German app is any better than hours.

Also why wouldn't it work?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 06, 2020, 03:56:15 PM
Theresa May's take. Which I actually agree with.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/theresa-may-criticises-world-response-to-coronavirus-pandemic?fbclid=IwAR1mGJ2GEDRKOd9Hg3oGUKurFrTC4jsXYhq_vIfUamwgF0TlooVTD06Ph-8
Yes, she's right. I suspect part of the problem is that the post of "leader of the free world" is currently vacant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 06, 2020, 04:17:05 PM
What makes you think the German app is any better than hours.

Also why wouldn't it work?

In the the three months prior to UK lockdown, 18m people entered the UK. How many will enter the UK after lockdown is lifted? How will the app work whilst abroad or if in contact with someone who is travelling?

How will it work for people in Ireland/NI?
 
The German app is based on a common Apple/Google framework and can be interoperable with others also built on that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 06, 2020, 04:39:46 PM
Yes, she's right. I suspect part of the problem is that the post of "leader of the free world" is currently vacant.

Maybe someone should start thinking how to fix up the world's economic system after Covid  or even what that means?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on May 06, 2020, 04:48:36 PM
In the the three months prior to UK lockdown, 18m people entered the UK. How many will enter the UK after lockdown is lifted? How will the app work whilst abroad or if in contact with someone who is travelling?

How will it work for people in Ireland/NI?
 
The German app is based on a common Apple/Google framework and can be interoperable with others also built on that.

In Finland an app for tracking was expected to be released early June. Now it probably won't be until August. The reason given is privacy issues, which is indeed important, but it seems nothing can ever be fast tracked  over here. Everything has to be done by the slowest route. I bet summer holidays comes into it too, just as this month we start to go into a hybrid strategy of less restrictions and more testing, tracking, quarantine. They reckon the difference could be as much as 30%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on May 07, 2020, 11:10:18 AM
I have just googled BBC news headlines. the first one was about travellers not getting water, electricity or sewage amenities.

Whenever the subject of travellers comes up, I find myself with mixed thoughts.
They have chosen to live as travellers. That's nice for them but unless they contribute with council tax payments, whyshould they expect to have the services?
Yes of course if they did not have water etc then the NHS would have more sick people to care for,
There was one woman referred to who had 18 children (I'm sure I heard that correctly although from her age they were obviously not all her own) and yes there aare problems everywhere about sufficient accommodation for such groups, but these stories jar.

I am not putting this forward for discussion, as I do not have enough information and do not intend to find out, but I would be very interested to hear whether there are a few opinions about this, with particular reference to the present pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on May 07, 2020, 05:30:40 PM
Our country (Finland) is going towards a hybrid strategy, which I cautiously think is the right strategy, but I fear it excludes risk groups. The burden of reopenning the country shouldn't lay on them. Today a body of 46 medical, econmic, and other experts released an open letter to the government telling it to look again at the strategy and opt for one of smothering the virus, something which they say could be done in as little as five weeks, thus openning society to all with minimum restritions and aggressive testing. They say this is the most ethical way. I agree.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on May 07, 2020, 05:53:20 PM
That's very interesting Ad-orientum & I'll read more about it. It's first I've read today about Coronavirus, thought I'd have a day off, slept and cycled with husband for a change (the cycling I mean ;). I don't know what's happening here, wot Boris has said today but nothing new I guess. Will put news on later. Hope you're all keeping well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on May 07, 2020, 06:32:41 PM
That's very interesting Ad-orientum & I'll read more about it. It's first I've read today about Coronavirus, thought I'd have a day off, slept and cycled with husband for a change (the cycling I mean ;). I don't know what's happening here, wot Boris has said today but nothing new I guess. Will put news on later. Hope you're all keeping well.

Cycling is nice. It's hard to stay away from corona news but things like cycling or running and walking helps. I go walking. I still go to work but I'd happily stay at home all day rather than go to work, to be honest. Unfortunately my finances don't allow for that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 07, 2020, 07:47:36 PM
In the the three months prior to UK lockdown, 18m people entered the UK. How many will enter the UK after lockdown is lifted? How will the app work whilst abroad or if in contact with someone who is travelling?

How will it work for people in Ireland/NI?
 
The German app is based on a common Apple/Google framework and can be interoperable with others also built on that.

The Apple/Google app framework still needs a database of ids of people who have tested positive. If each country's app uses its own database, then they will not be interoperable. If there is a global database, fine, but who controls it? Google? Apple? Donald Trump? The WHO in collusion with China?

Furthermore, by recording the first part of your postcode when you register, the NHS app can be used for resource planning. That seems like a huge advantage to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 07, 2020, 10:10:47 PM
Johnson's wiffle waffle yesterday where that his statement on Sunday was implied to be about a relaxation of lockdown led to some stonkingly stupid newspaper headlines, helped by the UK govt having anonymous briefings that covered the same thing. That they appear now to have had to row back on that is just indicative that it wasn't Johnson being ill that caused a vacuum in govt, it was that he is a vacuum in govt.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on May 08, 2020, 05:50:02 AM


Hey guys.. Why don't you quit this habitual cynicism, criticism and scorn.  The world is in crisis. All countries are facing the same problems and I am sure the people in your government are doing their best.

Help along, at least in word and gesture, if not through actual front line efforts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 08, 2020, 06:51:35 AM

Hey guys.. Why don't you quit this habitual cynicism, criticism and scorn.  The world is in crisis. All countries are facing the same problems and I am sure the people in your government are doing their best.

Help along, at least in word and gesture, if not through actual front line efforts.
So those people on the front line who point out that govt statements about PPE were wrong should have just shut up? No. That isn't cynicism.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 08, 2020, 08:34:57 AM

Hey guys.. Why don't you quit this habitual cynicism, criticism and scorn.  The world is in crisis. All countries are facing the same problems and I am sure the people in your government are doing their best.

Help along, at least in word and gesture, if not through actual front line efforts.

Nope. If they were doing their best we wouldn't have the highest death rate in Europe.

You really need to stop to think  before you post.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 08, 2020, 08:59:00 AM
Nope. If they were doing their best we wouldn't have the highest death rate in Europe.

You really need to stop to think  before you post.
To be fair we might still have that if they were doing their best but were dangerously fucking incompetent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Enki on May 08, 2020, 09:48:42 AM
Nope. If they were doing their best we wouldn't have the highest death rate in Europe.

You really need to stop to think  before you post.

Nothing wrong with criticism, especially if it's constructive, but it pays to get the facts straight first surely. At this point in time the UK doesn't have the highest death rate in Europe. Spain, Italy and particularly Belgium have worse death rate figures than us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 08, 2020, 10:22:14 AM
Nothing wrong with criticism, especially if it's constructive, but it pays to get the facts straight first surely. At this point in time the UK doesn't have the highest death rate in Europe. Spain, Italy and particularly Belgium have worse death rate figures than us.

Apologies my mistake. I was, of course, referring to the "apparent success" of having the highest death toll in Europe. Add to that the utter fiasco over PPE (Ch 4 ran an interesting programme on that particular debacle last night), locking down late, confusing and contradictory messages to the public, lack of testing & tracing and massaging of testing figures.

Take all those things and add on Sririam's "lets all be positive message" and I just feel like reaching into the screen and saying stuff your positivity, our government is killing people what aren't you grasping about our well justified "criticism and scorn".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 08, 2020, 11:03:35 AM
The Apple/Google app framework still needs a database of ids of people who have tested positive. If each country's app uses its own database, then they will not be interoperable. If there is a global database, fine, but who controls it? Google? Apple? Donald Trump? The WHO in collusion with China?
In theory the key lists* can be uploaded/downloaded from multiple servers or shared/distributed between servers or countries without risk of loss of any  personal or location data - depends on implementation choices by countries.
   
Quote
Furthermore, by recording the first part of your postcode when you register, the NHS app can be used for resource planning. That seems like a huge advantage to me.

Not really, as the system has to operate seamlessly with manual contact tracing and the testing/isolation system. ATM it is is not even clear what the NHSX  app user is supposed to do if they are alerted or have symptoms. The data should be collected from the (fully operational) testing system.

Since we are not able to influence these decisions, all we can do is hope that the app works well enough to help contain and manage outbreaks. If it doesn't then we have a fall back - even NHSX recognise that:

https://www.ft.com/content/d44beb06-5e3e-434f-a3a0-f806ce06576c
(can't tell if this link is pay-walled or not - should be searchable)

- Essentially, they have contracted a Swiss company to investigate how the app could be switched to the Apple-Google spec.

ETA: Better link:
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/may/07/uk-may-ditch-nhs-contact-tracing-app-for-apple-and-google-model

Quote
The government has left open the prospect of ditching its own contact-tracing app in favour of the “decentralised” model favoured by Apple and Google after it was revealed that a feasibility study into such a change is under way.

After repeated warnings that the UK will be an outlier if it insists on using its own centralised app rather than relying on Google and Apple’s technology, rights groups and MPs said on Thursday that the lack of privacy and data protections could mean that the app would be illegal.

* Note that the lists are keys that have been in proximity to someone having symptoms or confirmed as infected - not ids of those reporting infection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 08, 2020, 12:45:16 PM
For some reason I keep thinking of that Mayor in Jaws, who to save the economy of the town told everyone it was safe to go back into the water.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on May 08, 2020, 12:46:02 PM
Scientists over here have developed a vaccine ready for testing by about midsummer.

https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/finnish-developed_open-source_coronavirus_vaccine_nearly_ready_for_testing/11342151
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 08, 2020, 12:50:58 PM
For some reason I keep thinking of that Mayor in Jaws, who to save the economy of the town told everyone it was safe to go back into the water.

From some weeks back:

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2020/mar/13/boris-johnson-coronavirus-hero-mayor-larry-vaughn-jaws

"The PM thinks Amity mayor Larry Vaughn is ‘the real hero of Jaws’. Maybe that’s why he’s emulating his ‘the beaches are open’ politics as coronavirus spreads around the world"
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 08, 2020, 01:06:31 PM
Scientists over here have developed a vaccine ready for testing by about midsummer.

https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/finnish-developed_open-source_coronavirus_vaccine_nearly_ready_for_testing/11342151

Sounds good - only human testing can show if it does actually work. 

Would be good to have more technical info given it is open source - especially if it is a nasal-spray vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 08, 2020, 02:23:01 PM
For some reason I keep thinking of that Mayor in Jaws, who to save the economy of the town told everyone it was safe to go back into the water.
"What's Jaws?"
"Thanks - double Laphroaig, no ice."
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 08, 2020, 03:23:57 PM
Nope. If they were doing their best we wouldn't have the highest death rate in Europe.
We don't have the highest death rate in Europe.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 08, 2020, 03:28:56 PM
In theory the key lists* can be uploaded/downloaded from multiple servers or shared/distributed between servers or countries without risk of loss of any  personal or location data - depends on implementation choices by countries.
In theory...

There's no personal data in the NHS database either other than the phone's identifier which you need to do the notification and the first part of the post code.
   
Quote
Not really, as the system has to operate seamlessly with manual contact tracing and the testing/isolation system.
What makes you think it won't?

Quote
ATM it is is not even clear what the NHSX  app user is supposed to do if they are alerted or have symptoms. The data should be collected from the (fully operational) testing system.
Isn't it? You don't know what to do if you find out somebody you were in contact with yesterday is positive or if you start experiencing symptoms?

Quote
- Essentially, they have contracted a Swiss company to investigate how the app could be switched to the Apple-Google spec.

ETA: Better link:
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/may/07/uk-may-ditch-nhs-contact-tracing-app-for-apple-and-google-model

* Note that the lists are keys that have been in proximity to someone having symptoms or confirmed as infected - not ids of those reporting infection.
All well and good, but none of that means the NHSX app was worthless or insecure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 08, 2020, 03:29:45 PM
For some reason I keep thinking of that Mayor in Jaws, who to save the economy of the town told everyone it was safe to go back into the water.
Which is precisely the opposite of the British Government's line. Or were you thinking of Donald Trump?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 08, 2020, 04:06:47 PM
Coronavirus: Russian hospital staff 'working without masks'

As coronavirus spreads more widely in Russia’s provinces, hospitals - often old and ill-equipped - have become infection "hot spots". The number of medical workers getting sick, and dying, is growing.
President Putin admitted that there was a shortage of PPE and ordered an increase in production. But even now, many Russian healthcare staff are scared to complain publicly about having to work without proper protection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 08, 2020, 04:09:29 PM
We don't have the highest death rate in Europe.

Yes - we already covered that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 08, 2020, 04:52:02 PM
Isn't it? You don't know what to do if you find out somebody you were in contact with yesterday is positive or if you start experiencing symptoms?
I would get tested to confirm whether I had been infected and, if so, warn anyone I might have been in contact with. Does the app do that?  Has the government told anyone to do that?
Quote
All well and good, but none of that means the NHSX app was worthless or insecure.
Did anyone say it was?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 08, 2020, 05:32:57 PM
The US has the highest death toll in the world, the UK the second highest and Italy the third highest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 08, 2020, 05:35:29 PM
The US has the highest death rate in the world, the UK the second highest and Italy the third highest.
Death rate is not the same as death toll
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 08, 2020, 05:39:18 PM
Death rate is not the same as death toll

WHOOPS! I have corrected it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 08, 2020, 06:54:07 PM

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/08/revealed-uk-scientists-fury-over-attempt-to-censor-covid-19-advice

Quote
Government scientific advisers are furious at what they see as an attempt to censor their advice on government proposals during the Covid-19 lockdown by heavily redacting an official report before it was released to the public, the Guardian can reveal.

The report was one of a series of documents published by the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (Sage) this week to mollify growing criticism about the lack of transparency over the advice given to ministers responding to the coronavirus.

However, large blocks of text in the report, produced by SPI-B, the Sage subcommittee providing advice from behavioural scientists on how the public might respond to lockdown measures, were entirely blanked out.

I think I'm hooked on re-posting reports from the Grauniad now ... an echo chamber reinforcing my existing distrust of the lying bunch of ... :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on May 09, 2020, 04:22:59 PM
What a savage irony that yesterday people were celebrating the old guard who fought in the war, yet decades of neglect is seeing them dying in droves in care homes and their own homes from covid.  Some people are calling it a cull, or a bitter harvest.  Let's not forget.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 10, 2020, 09:17:21 AM
Yes - we already covered that.

Yes, maybe, if you didn't want people piling on you should have stopped and thought before you posted something that was factually incorrect to rebuke somebody else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 10, 2020, 09:33:04 AM
The US has the highest death toll in the world, the UK the second highest and Italy the third highest.

The US has 330 million people in it. The UK has only 66 million people. The absolute death toll is irrelevant.

To be honest, the death rate per capita is also irrelevant unless you also take into account other factors. For example, Iceland has had only 30 deaths per million people against our 463 deaths per million. However, Iceland's population is smaller than that of Bristol in an area five times the size of Wales and it's geographically remote.

These between country comparisons are generally bullshit. The graph that the government shows us every day is bullshit. Professor Van Tam's comment yesterday that the USA is an outlier was bullshit.

Let's stop with the bullshit and try and control this disease and get the country back to some sort of functional democracy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 10, 2020, 09:36:06 AM
What a savage irony that yesterday people were celebrating the old guard who fought in the war, yet decades of neglect is seeing them dying in droves in care homes and their own homes from covid.  Some people are calling it a cull, or a bitter harvest.  Let's not forget.

Oh please.

It's nothing to do with decades of neglect. People in care homes are old and frail. They wouldn't be there if they weren't. It doesn't matter how well run a care home is, if coronavirus gets in there lots of people will die.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 10, 2020, 09:48:02 AM
Yes, maybe, if you didn't want people piling on you should have stopped and thought before you posted something that was factually incorrect to rebuke somebody else.

Is one apology for me getting it wrong not enough?

Do you wish me to wear sackcloth and sit in ashes as atonement?

I know that you are always correct and never get anything wrong. Us mere mortals can only gaze in wonder and awe at your perfection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 10, 2020, 09:51:28 AM
It would seem Boris's new slogan is yet another example of how not to bring forward a policy amendment, Nicola Sturgeon making it clear that all she knows about a slogan/message change is what she reads in the newspapers, and that she won't be immediately changing the message here at his behest.

From her twitter account (as posted in the Guardian live blog).

Quote
The Sunday papers is the first I’ve seen of the PM’s new slogan. It is of course for him to decide what’s most appropriate for England, but given the critical point we are at in tackling the virus, #StayHomeSaveLives remains my clear message to Scotland at this stage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 10, 2020, 10:15:04 AM
Is one apology for me getting it wrong not enough?

Do you wish me to wear sackcloth and sit in ashes as atonement?
If you like.

Quote
I know that you are always correct and never get anything wrong. Us mere mortals can only gaze in wonder and awe at your perfection.
Of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 10, 2020, 10:22:59 AM
It would seem Boris's new slogan is yet another example of how not to bring forward a policy amendment, Nicola Sturgeon making it clear that all she knows about a slogan/message change is what she reads in the newspapers, and that she won't be immediately changing the message here at his behest.

From her twitter account (as posted in the Guardian live blog).

The slogan is just words. I don't know why Sturgeon would even care about it. I'm more concerned that the four governments seem to be unable to coordinate their actions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 10, 2020, 10:28:34 AM
The slogan is just words. I don't know why Sturgeon would even care about it. I'm more concerned that the four governments seem to be unable to coordinate their actions.

I think coordination is very important and the sooner the better. For instance, our youngest daughter lives just over the border in England, if she wanted to visit her aged old parents she could be prevented from doing so by the Welsh police, even though social distancing would be put in place when she arrived.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 10, 2020, 10:32:26 AM
The slogan is just words. I don't know why Sturgeon would even care about it. I'm more concerned that the four governments seem to be unable to coordinate their actions.

Hard to coordinate when you've got a PM who doesn't consult with the likes of our First Minister about policy initiatives like this but briefs the press about his intentions: and she's not the only one expressing concern.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/10/nicola-sturgeon-leads-criticism-of-uks-new-stay-alert-coronavirus-lockdown-advice
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 10, 2020, 10:47:41 AM
Hard to coordinate when you've got a PM who doesn't consult with the likes of our First Minister about policy initiatives like this but briefs the press about his intentions: and she's not the only one expressing concern.
The slogan is just words. I'd be more concerned if Sturgeon wasn't informed about the initiatives behind it (if any).

As far as "people might think it's over", the cat's already out of the bag on that one. The media have been speculating for days about what might be happening with the next phase, aided by copious leakage from all four of the governments in the UK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 10, 2020, 11:41:20 AM
The slogan is just words. I'd be more concerned if Sturgeon wasn't informed about the initiatives behind it (if any).

As far as "people might think it's over", the cat's already out of the bag on that one. The media have been speculating for days about what might be happening with the next phase, aided by copious leakage from all four of the governments in the UK.

What has the Scottish Government leaked? As far as I can see the leaks were in the English and mainly Tory-supporting press.

There seems to have been no consultation on this: from Vaughn Gething, the Minister for Health and Social Services in the Welsh Assembly.

Quote
I’ve seen the media briefings and changed message for England. There has not been a 4 nations agreement or discussion on this. The @WelshGovernment message has not changed. Stay at home and if you do go out observe the social distancing rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 10, 2020, 04:27:03 PM

Interesting stuff


https://fivebooks.com/best-books/viruses-dorothy-crawford/?fbclid=IwAR1cT9UZ7rYcBg5dEKQFowxfn64dW8Xz8SrUz8Y-WdH-gIvsQQxxv6Z-PeQ
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 10, 2020, 05:18:25 PM
No, Corona! (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uL52AuF4QzY&fbclid=IwAR0Y0H3ZCQjQ09khv4DJjF6hDOHamKAJa3WvP6Kgp2aHgctyIOkymCL0KxM&app=desktop)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 10, 2020, 08:06:26 PM
Utterly awful address from Boris. Unclear and then having been prerecorded no chance for any clarity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 10, 2020, 10:34:11 PM
I do hope those who voted for this clown and his dysfunctional party are looking at this closely: I wouldn't trust them to take my dog for a walk (and I don't even have a dog).

Tonight's broadcast was an object lesson in how to turn a crisis into an even worse crisis while, at the same time, alienating large sections of the population while exposing other sections of the population to even greater risk - and in the background the Brexit clock ticks on.

John Crace's take.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/10/smart-suit-brushed-hair-it-was-just-the-speech-that-was-a-total-mess
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 11, 2020, 08:08:36 AM
Utterly awful address from Boris. Unclear and then having been prerecorded no chance for any clarity.
What was unclear about it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 11, 2020, 09:31:42 AM
The subliminals on the graphic are interesting. A change from red hatching (red for danger) to green hatching (green for go).

I fear not a lot of good will come of this latest attempt by Boris to circumnavigate our way out of this crisis.

And why wasn't this put before parliament?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 11, 2020, 09:36:49 AM
The subliminals on the graphic are interesting. A change from red hatching (red for danger) to green hatching (green for go).
I didn't notice that. It's interesting because nothing in Boris's speech last night said it was time for us to "go". All he's given us so far is "you can exercise as much as you like and that includes sitting in the park". For a lot of people that just brings the rules in line with reality.

ETA: Oh and you're allowed to travel to work even if your job is non essential.

Quote
And why wasn't this put before parliament?
Because it doesn't need to be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on May 11, 2020, 09:54:05 AM
I didn't notice that. It's interesting because nothing in Boris's speech last night said it was time for us to "go". All he's given us so far is "you can exercise as much as you like and that includes sitting in the park". For a lot of people that just brings the rules in line with reality.

ETA: Oh and you're allowed to travel to work even if your job is non essential.
Because it doesn't need to be.
Thank you for posting more calm responses, JeremyP. I find all the constant moaning about everything the Gov does or says quite  annoying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 11, 2020, 09:57:06 AM
Thank you for posting more calm responses, JeremyP. I find all the constant moaning about everything the Gov does or says quite  annoying.

No surprise there then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 11, 2020, 09:58:37 AM
I didn't notice that. It's interesting because nothing in Boris's speech last night said it was time for us to "go". All he's given us so far is "you can exercise as much as you like and that includes sitting in the park". For a lot of people that just brings the rules in line with reality.

ETA: Oh and you're allowed to travel to work even if your job is non essential.
Because it doesn't need to be.
And the details about what constitutes safe in terms of going to work won't be published till Tuesday but he didn't make that clear.

Plus, of course, in doing it this way he's effectively undercut the advice from the 3 devolved govts.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 11, 2020, 10:00:19 AM
Thank you for posting more calm responses, JeremyP. I find all the constant moaning about everything the Gov does or says quite  annoying.
I suppose those people who have had relatives who have died because of govt incompetence and lies should just shut up then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on May 11, 2020, 10:53:52 AM
I suppose those people who have had relatives who have died because of govt incompetence and lies should just shut up then.
No, of course not, and to take such a binary view is, I think, unjustified.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 11, 2020, 11:14:05 AM
No, of course not, and to take such a binary view is, I think, unjustified.
The binary issue was caused by you presenting the criticism of the govt as not calm and moaning. I was just reflecting it back at you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 11, 2020, 11:45:32 AM
We listened to Boris's speech last night and found it confusing, it is no wonder people are complaining about it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 11, 2020, 12:00:45 PM
We listened to Boris's speech last night and found it confusing, it is no wonder people are complaining about it.
Part of the issue with it was that the prerecording of it meant no questions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 11, 2020, 12:12:03 PM
Part of the issue with it was that the prerecording of it meant no questions.
He said he would take questions tonight. So, no it wasn't an issue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 11, 2020, 12:26:44 PM
I suppose those people who have had relatives who have died because of govt incompetence and lies should just shut up then.

Do you know anybody whose deaths in this crisis were definitely caused by government incompetence? Am I allowed to point to my nearly 80 year old parents and say "look their lives have been saved by government competence"?

We don't know if any lives could have been saved by doing some things differently. It seems likely that going into lockdown a few weeks earlier might have saved some lives but we don't know that.

It seems to me that there are a lot of people here and elsewhere for whom the government can do no right. If the government came up with a wider cure tomorrow, people would be whining about how they failed to come up with it yesterday or criticising them because they can't administer it to 66 million people all on the dame day.

The is the worst health crisis that anybody alive today has ever lived through. It's the worst crisis of any sort since WW2 and the people running WW2 mostly remembered WW1. Of course the government is making mistakes. They are having to make up the response as they are going along.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 11, 2020, 12:28:36 PM
Meanwhile we have Raab muddying the already murky waters.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/11/dominic-raab-adds-confusion-over-changes-uk-lockdown-rules?

Wednesday? Monday?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 11, 2020, 12:30:42 PM
Quote
We don't know if any lives could have been saved by doing some things differently. It seems likely that going into lockdown a few weeks earlier might have saved some lives but we don't know that.

We certainly know that stocks of PPE were cut and the remaining stocks were not replenished. Health staff died.

Dots. Join.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 11, 2020, 01:02:03 PM
He said he would take questions tonight. So, no it wasn't an issue.
  Except as already covered Raab has been out this morning saying that the return plan was for Wednesday, not today. So it was an issue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 11, 2020, 01:40:06 PM
  Except as already covered Raab has been out this morning saying that the return plan was for Wednesday, not today. So it was an issue.

That's quite strange because I never thought it was Monday.

And so what? In practical terms it couldn't be today anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 11, 2020, 01:52:37 PM
OK I figured out where I got the Wednesday impression from. Wednesday was explicitly mentioned in respect of the changes to exercise. However, it should be obvious that most workplaces were not going to be able to change their practices by the day after the prime minister's speech at 7pm to allow people to come back in to work.

And for those claiming the speech was a bit vague, Boris pretty much acknowledged that in the speech.

Quote
I will be setting out more details in Parliament tomorrow and taking questions from the public in the evening.

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-address-to-the-nation-on-coronavirus-10-may-2020

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 11, 2020, 01:55:34 PM
OK I figured out where I got the Wednesday impression from. Wednesday was explicitly mentioned in respect of the changes to exercise. However, it should be obvious that most workplaces were not going to be able to change their practices by the day after the prime minister's speech at 7pm to allow people to come back in to work.

And for those claiming the speech was a bit vague, Boris pretty much acknowledged that in the speech.

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-address-to-the-nation-on-coronavirus-10-may-2020
Which just underlines why it shouldn't have been made without the ability to question, or indeed without those details being available
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 11, 2020, 01:57:50 PM
That's quite strange because I never thought it was Monday.

And so what? In practical terms it couldn't be today anyway.
Because lots of people took it as applying today and the use of public transport has increased with the requisite increase in capacity. It also needed to have the plans for furlough clear as part of an integrated solution.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 11, 2020, 02:05:31 PM
Which just underlines why it shouldn't have been made without the ability to question, or indeed without those details being available
It wasn't made without the ability to question. Johnson will be taking questions today. And he will be giving the details today. We've been living in a lockdown since March 23rd. Why is one day suddenly a problem?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 11, 2020, 02:13:48 PM
Because lots of people took it as applying today
Use some common sense. Would you travel to your place of work today without checking with your employer first that it is even going to be open?

Quote
and the use of public transport has increased with the requisite increase in capacity.
The speech explicitly said avoid public transport for that exact reason.


Quote
It also needed to have the plans for furlough clear as part of an integrated solution.
The plans for furlough are clear. It ends on June 30th. I see newspapers are reporting that the government is considering extending it in some modified form (perhaps at 60%) but is it unreasonable for the government to think about modifying it?

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on May 11, 2020, 02:49:11 PM
Do you know anybody whose deaths in this crisis were definitely caused by government incompetence? Am I allowed to point to my nearly 80 year old parents and say "look their lives have been saved by government competence"?

We don't know if any lives could have been saved by doing some things differently. It seems likely that going into lockdown a few weeks earlier might have saved some lives but we don't know that.

It seems to me that there are a lot of people here and elsewhere for whom the government can do no right. If the government came up with a wider cure tomorrow, people would be whining about how they failed to come up with it yesterday or criticising them because they can't administer it to 66 million people all on the dame day.

The is the worst health crisis that anybody alive today has ever lived through. It's the worst crisis of any sort since WW2 and the people running WW2 mostly remembered WW1. Of course the government is making mistakes. They are having to make up the response as they are going along.
Hear, hear. Very well said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 11, 2020, 03:57:43 PM
The government has published its document on the next steps (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/884171/FINAL_6.6637_CO_HMG_C19_Recovery_FINAL_110520_v2_WEB__1_.pdf)



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on May 11, 2020, 04:01:31 PM
Do you know anybody whose deaths in this crisis were definitely caused by government incompetence? Am I allowed to point to my nearly 80 year old parents and say "look their lives have been saved by government competence"?

We don't know if any lives could have been saved by doing some things differently. It seems likely that going into lockdown a few weeks earlier might have saved some lives but we don't know that.

It seems to me that there are a lot of people here and elsewhere for whom the government can do no right. If the government came up with a wider cure tomorrow, people would be whining about how they failed to come up with it yesterday or criticising them because they can't administer it to 66 million people all on the dame day.

The is the worst health crisis that anybody alive today has ever lived through. It's the worst crisis of any sort since WW2 and the people running WW2 mostly remembered WW1. Of course the government is making mistakes. They are having to make up the response as they are going along.

More or less agree with that. Not a country in the world that hasn't made mistakes on the way, and in the end only hindsight will tell how bad those mistakes were. Given that this is new, any country can only go on the information it has at the time. Of course it can still be given good and bad advice. Personally, if I had the power to choose, I would want to suffocate the virus (exit strategies have to include risk groups too, the only ethical way in my opinion) but only time will tell if that or hybrid strategies will work. Nearly all countries have fucked up with PPC, including my own.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 11, 2020, 05:23:22 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52618352

Jury trials are to resume next week in England and Wales.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 11, 2020, 10:26:28 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52618352

Jury trials are to resume next week in England and Wales.
Put BloJob in the dock, for criminal negligence!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 11, 2020, 10:28:21 PM
Put BloJob in the dock, for criminal negligence!
much as I think he is a dangerous lazy incompetent, that's nonsense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 11, 2020, 10:29:41 PM
much as I think he is a dangerous lazy incompetent, that's nonsense.
Ic wasn't being serious!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 11, 2020, 10:37:07 PM
Ic wasn't being serious!
The issue is that there are enough people who argue nonsense like this for it to be no joke.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 11, 2020, 11:29:26 PM
It wasn't made without the ability to question. Johnson will be taking questions today. And he will be giving the details today. We've been living in a lockdown since March 23rd. Why is one day suddenly a problem?
Because lots more people travelled on public transport in London today because of the inability and incompetence to communicate that it didn't mean tomorrow with no qualification, something you have already made clear on here you didn't understand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 11, 2020, 11:45:46 PM
Use some common sense. Would you travel to your place of work today without checking with your employer first that it is even going to be open?
The speech explicitly said avoid public transport for that exact reason.


When and how do you check after the PM makes an announcement at 7pm on a Sunday, an announcement that you have already admitted you made an assumption about because it wasn't clearly explained. And yes it does say avoid public transport but that is just even more confusing for those who can't and who don't know if the public transport can deal with the demand, and where the govt has had no agreement with public transport that it can cover it.


Your posts where you declare your confusion illustrate why you are wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 12, 2020, 08:50:23 AM
...
It seems to me that there are a lot of people here and elsewhere for whom the government can do no right. If the government came up with a wider cure tomorrow, people would be whining about how they failed to come up with it yesterday or criticising them because they can't administer it to 66 million people all on the dame day.

The is the worst health crisis that anybody alive today has ever lived through. It's the worst crisis of any sort since WW2 and the people running WW2 mostly remembered WW1. Of course the government is making mistakes. They are having to make up the response as they are going along.

My impression is that people, here and elsewhere, including the opposition, have been bending over backwards to provide positive and constructive support for the govt. actions on the health crisis.

Not only is Covid-19 a new disease, there are huge gaps in our knowledge concerning it, and there is no cut and dried way of managing the crisis: we have, and will, make mistakes and need to correct them or change strategy or tactics.

The damning criticisms of the government have little directly to do with failures in tackling the pandemic but concern the unforced errors due to the dishonesty and incompetence in the administration itself and communications with anyone outside Downing St.
   
The crisis can't be stopped unless people can trust the government. The PM needs to reassure us, the critics, that he and his team can be trusted or put together a team that can be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on May 12, 2020, 09:49:55 AM
The gap in Boris's plan is contact tracing.  The govt has wavered between that, herd immunity, and lockdown.   Contact tracing is the best way to identify and isolate cases, but it is getting lost in the PR exercise.   Better make a will.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 12, 2020, 10:28:16 AM
The gap in Boris's plan is contact tracing.  The govt has wavered between that, herd immunity, and lockdown.   Contact tracing is the best way to identify and isolate cases, but it is getting lost in the PR exercise.   Better make a will.

Contact tracing could be put in place but it needs communication and cooperation with local government. There will be contact data from the NHSX app and there are thousands of volunteers who registered to help the NHS but have not been directed to any tasks so far. 

Ideally, anyone that may have been infected should be able to get an immediate test.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on May 12, 2020, 11:20:11 AM
Contact tracing could be put in place but it needs communication and cooperation with local government. There will be contact data from the NHSX app and there are thousands of volunteers who registered to help the NHS but have not been directed to any tasks so far. 

Ideally, anyone that may have been infected should be able to get an immediate test.

Well, traditionally, contact tracing would be organized by local health inspectors, who dealt with infectious diseases, food poisoning, etc.  This make sense, as you have local outbreaks, which vary in intensity.  However, I suspect that local health organizations have been pissed against the wall in recent years.  Whether the new volunteers can be trained to do it, dunno.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 12, 2020, 02:53:32 PM
Points to the govt for the extension in the furlough scheme. I fear though that we will see a lot of redundancies when it's over, and not just among those furloughed. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 12, 2020, 03:50:20 PM
Marina Hyde on BJ's recent performance.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/12/civic-duty-prime-minister-boris-johnson-coronavirus
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 12, 2020, 06:56:23 PM
When and how do you check after the PM makes an announcement at 7pm on a Sunday
You wait until Monday morning. Isn't that obvious?

Quote
an announcement that you have already admitted you made an assumption about because it wasn't clearly explained.
I agree he didn't say "this all starts on Wednesday". Perhaps he assumed we aren't morons that need to be led by the hand.

Quote
And yes it does say avoid public transport but that is just even more confusing for those who can't and who don't know if the public transport can deal with the demand, and where the govt has had no agreement with public transport that it can cover it.
There's nothing confusing about
Quote from: Boris Johnson
So you should avoid public transport if at all possible
I've bolded part of it for the hard of comprehension. He didn't say "don't use public transport", he said "don't use public transport if at all possible". Clearly that means, if you can't avoid using public then you can use it.

Quote
Your posts where you declare your confusion illustrate why you are wrong.

I didn't claim confusion about the whole thing, I claimed a misunderstanding by me on one point. That particular point was completely cleared up by the document the government released the very next day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on May 12, 2020, 07:02:43 PM
Comparing the UK's response to America's response, those in charge seem to be following the exact same playbook.  From what I can tell, both our leaders are working for those who have the most money.  Plain and simple.  Allowing the public to see the tallies increase on the number of cases and the number of deaths directly affects the deep pockets of this controlling interest, because it frightens people into wanting to stay home instead of getting out and working, shopping, eating out, etc... 

For about a week now, I've been documenting the daily tallies coming out of John's Hopkin's University and also looking at federal and state government sites to see how the numbers are trending in particular with regards to influenza and pneumonia (which here for some reason the two have always been grouped together.)  The CDC shows a surprisingly high spike in flu/pneumonia in April and May (which is the time when flu season is coming to a close.)  I then checked my state site (we are heavily GOP), and I saw where they stopped reporting pneumonia deaths in April and now only provided deaths as a result of flu only.  My guess is that the numbers of pneumonia were similarly spiking and they don't the public seeing how COVID19 cases and deaths are not being properly reported both in both the federal and state health sites.  I find it very disconcerting the effort that is being made here just erase what is actually happening. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 12, 2020, 07:08:15 PM
My impression is that people, here and elsewhere, including the opposition, have been bending over backwards to provide positive and constructive support for the govt. actions on the health crisis.
Yeah, that's bollocks mostly, with the exception of Het Majesty's opposition who have been pretty good IMO.

Quote
The damning criticisms of the government have little directly to do with failures in tackling the pandemic but concern the unforced errors due to the dishonesty and incompetence in the administration itself and communications with anyone outside Downing St.
And what are they?
   
Quote
The crisis can't be stopped unless people can trust the government. The PM needs to reassure us, the critics, that he and his team can be trusted or put together a team that can be.
There is a problem there that the government's record in the past is not stellar to say the least, but I try to judge their actions in this matter based on their performance in this matter and a lot of the criticism is based on what people want to believe about this government, not on what is true.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 13, 2020, 07:58:29 AM
Yeah, that's bollocks mostly, with the exception of Het Majesty's opposition who have been pretty good IMO.
And what are they?
   There is a problem there that the government's record in the past is not stellar to say the least, but I try to judge their actions in this matter based on their performance in this matter and a lot of the criticism is based on what people want to believe about this government, not on what is true.

Oh really? You can easily go through this thread and count up who has been supporting positive action taken up (eventually) by the government and who has been in denial throughout - about the threat of the disease and the actions that need to be taken, clinging to each bit of government kite flying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 13, 2020, 08:17:08 AM
Whilst here... might be worth pointing out that:

The current fixation on the R number will not get us out of the crisis, they have just picked up on Angela Merkel's well received explanation and continued with it as an extension to the previous fluffery of watching the daily death figures.

What will determine whether we can actually loosen up on the lockdown and come out is whether or not the govt. have put in place working systems, procedures and applications to test, trace and isolate every case, and ensure vulnerable people are shielded from infection with proper support.  The whole point of the lockdown was to stop the NHS being overrun before such systems could be put in place.
 
They must know this but why not just be honest about what is needed? If they aren't in place we will have a long drawn out decline until a vaccine or cure is found and made available (assuming we can find them).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 13, 2020, 08:49:30 AM
Have to laugh at that prize goof Grant Schapps, who the other day was defending the new 'Stay Alert' slogan (for viewers in England that is) - he's just said on Radio 4:

Quote
If we see the R number go up again - particularly above one - we will have to take steps.

We all know what that means - it means going back to staying at home.

Maybe they shouldn't have rushed to change the slogan - and I do hope that members here who live in England and have to use public transport can keep themselves safe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 13, 2020, 06:58:00 PM
John Crace eviscerating our useless PMs performance today.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/13/boris-johnson-resorts-to-bluster-under-keir-starmer-cross-examination
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on May 13, 2020, 08:11:24 PM
Whilst here... might be worth pointing out that:

The current fixation on the R number will not get us out of the crisis, they have just picked up on Angela Merkel's well received explanation and continued with it as an extension to the previous fluffery of watching the daily death figures.

What will determine whether we can actually loosen up on the lockdown and come out is whether or not the govt. have put in place working systems, procedures and applications to test, trace and isolate every case, and ensure vulnerable people are shielded from infection with proper support.  The whole point of the lockdown was to stop the NHS being overrun before such systems could be put in place.


Yes, this!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on May 13, 2020, 08:34:50 PM
Whilst here... might be worth pointing out that:

The current fixation on the R number will not get us out of the crisis, they have just picked up on Angela Merkel's well received explanation and continued with it as an extension to the previous fluffery of watching the daily death figures.

What will determine whether we can actually loosen up on the lockdown and come out is whether or not the govt. have put in place working systems, procedures and applications to test, trace and isolate every case, and ensure vulnerable people are shielded from infection with proper support.  The whole point of the lockdown was to stop the NHS being overrun before such systems could be put in place.
 
They must know this but why not just be honest about what is needed? If they aren't in place we will have a long drawn out decline until a vaccine or cure is found and made available (assuming we can find them).

The R number is a good indicator of where we're at but as you say, without those other things it's of little use. I personally would like to have seen more enthusiasm for suffocating the virus. A few countries have gone that way but the vast majority haven't. Risk groups, it seems, won't be able to rejoin society for a long time. All that, we're all in this together, was just bollocks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 13, 2020, 08:37:49 PM
Quote
All that, we're all in this together, was just bollocks.

And it is repeated bollocks too.

Osborne used the same shtick over austerity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on May 14, 2020, 09:46:13 PM
News out of Dublin, there's a study showing a correlation between vitamin D deficiency and the more serious COVID19 complications. 

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/nutrition/study-looks-at-the-relationship-between-vitamin-d-and-coronavirus/ar-BB144EpQ (http://)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on May 14, 2020, 10:06:05 PM
Couldn't open your link flowers but thes e are probably connected:-
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/new-research-links-vitamin-d-deficiency-with-covid-19-severity/ar-BB13TXEX?li=BBnbfcL

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/wellness/vitamin-d-could-play-role-in-lessening-risk-if-you-get-covid-19/ar-BB13ZFd0

Here in England over past few weeks we've all been encouraged to take vitamin D supplements which I've been doing religiously.

There's evidence that high doses of vit c are effective in combating the virus:-
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-and-how-to-boost-the-immune-system-with-vitamins/a-53360766

https://www.healtheuropa.eu/vitamin-supplements-effective-for-fighting-covid-19/99573/

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on May 14, 2020, 11:22:09 PM
Interesting, Robbie.  Your link is about a similar study here stateside (U of Illinois.)  Several years ago, my rheumatologist prescribed high doses of Vitamin D3 (along with a mild dose of K2) because my body kept producing Lupus antibodies that had not yet, thank God, gone on the attack.  But, I was obviously in a state of inflammation all the time.  Since then, several years of blood tests have revealed zero of these antibodies.  Have not had that in almost thirty years.  This makes sense re: COVID19, as we're learning most people die not from the ill effects of the virus but from our own immune systems going into overdrive and inadvertently killing off our own weakened cells.

It would be wonderful if the effort to understand and cure COVID19 would also benefit autoimmune diseases. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 15, 2020, 01:02:34 PM
I see trouble ahead....


https://www.nursingtimes.net/news/workforce/unions-warn-of-risk-to-future-workforce-if-public-sector-pay-freeze-is-enforced-14-05-2020/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on May 15, 2020, 02:32:45 PM
Couldn't open your link flowers but thes e are probably connected:-
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/new-research-links-vitamin-d-deficiency-with-covid-19-severity/ar-BB13TXEX?li=BBnbfcL

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/wellness/vitamin-d-could-play-role-in-lessening-risk-if-you-get-covid-19/ar-BB13ZFd0

Here in England over past few weeks we've all been encouraged to take vitamin D supplements which I've been doing religiously.

There's evidence that high doses of vit c are effective in combating the virus:-
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-and-how-to-boost-the-immune-system-with-vitamins/a-53360766

https://www.healtheuropa.eu/vitamin-supplements-effective-for-fighting-covid-19/99573/

We all have differing metabolic rates if you have a reasonably balanced diet you will gain the vitamins you need and any of the surplus will be excreted via the usual channels so if you try to up the rate of any particular vitamin the same rule will apply with most vitamins with some exceptions that can be over dosed on.

Like religion if a person is locked in to taking vitamins no one will convince them there's no real need to keep the purveyors of copious amounts of vitamins in business.

ippy. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Enki on May 15, 2020, 03:18:50 PM
Have to laugh at that prize goof Grant Schapps, who the other day was defending the new 'Stay Alert' slogan (for viewers in England that is) - he's just said on Radio 4:

Maybe they shouldn't have rushed to change the slogan - and I do hope that members here who live in England and have to use public transport can keep themselves safe.

I am puzzled by your reason for quoting Grant Schapps in post 1881, Gordon.

I get it that you think that the government has started to relax lockdown too early.
I get it that you think Grant Schapps is a 'prize goof'.
I get it that you think that they 'rushed' to change the slogan.
I get it that you think the new slogan 'stay alert' isn't well thought out.

Given all that, how does your quote of what Grant Schapps said reinforce any of these opinions. or is there something else I'm missing?

For instance, when(I assume there will be a when) Nicola Sturgeon announces dates for relaxing the lockdown in Scotland, won't it be sensible for her to issue some sort of similar warning that if there is a major resurgence of the virus(e.g. R>1), then lockdown might be reimposed? I would have thought that any responsible government would issue words to that effect. Am I wrong?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 15, 2020, 04:03:04 PM
I am puzzled by your reason for quoting Grant Schapps in post 1881, Gordon.

I get it that you think that the government has started to relax lockdown too early.
I get it that you think Grant Schapps is a 'prize goof'.
I get it that you think that they 'rushed' to change the slogan.
I get it that you think the new slogan 'stay alert' isn't well thought out.

Given all that, how does your quote of what Grant Schapps said reinforce any of these opinions. or is there something else I'm missing?

For instance, when(I assume there will be a when) Nicola Sturgeon announces dates for relaxing the lockdown in Scotland, won't it be sensible for her to issue some sort of similar warning that if there is a major resurgence of the virus(e.g. R>1), then lockdown might be reimposed? I would have thought that any responsible government would issue words to that effect. Am I wrong?

Grant Schapps was trying to defend to brand new (and much criticised) slogan while acknowledging that they may have to revert to the old one - which seemed an odd admission when other Tories were coming out of the woodwork to defend Boris's wonderful new slogan (which he hadn't taken the trouble to run by the Scottish Government).

Nicola Sturgeon is, by contrast, more circumspect and less inclined to premature sloganising.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on May 15, 2020, 08:44:08 PM
Interesting, Robbie.  Your link is about a similar study here stateside (U of Illinois.)  Several years ago, my rheumatologist prescribed high doses of Vitamin D3 (along with a mild dose of K2) because my body kept producing Lupus antibodies that had not yet, thank God, gone on the attack.  But, I was obviously in a state of inflammation all the time.  Since then, several years of blood tests have revealed zero of these antibodies.  Have not had that in almost thirty years.  This makes sense re: COVID19, as we're learning most people die not from the ill effects of the virus but from our own immune systems going into overdrive and inadvertently killing off our own weakened cells.

It would be wonderful if the effort to understand and cure COVID19 would also benefit autoimmune diseases.

It sure would. There are cases now of severe inflammatory diseases occurring after positive Covid-19 tests, particularly noted in children. It's a serious state of affairs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Enki on May 15, 2020, 09:59:23 PM
Grant Schapps was trying to defend to brand new (and much criticised) slogan while acknowledging that they may have to revert to the old one - which seemed an odd admission when other Tories were coming out of the woodwork to defend Boris's wonderful new slogan (which he hadn't taken the trouble to run by the Scottish Government).

Nicola Sturgeon is, by contrast, more circumspect and less inclined to premature sloganising.

I have no problem with the fact that this slogan has been criticised or that other Tories have supported it. I have no problem that you seem to think that it was too soon to relax the stay at home message. That wasn't the point of my query. In the context of who Grant Schapps, is(a member of the government), in the quote that you selected he simply seemed to be suggesting that if it is found that the R number goes up too far, then steps will be needed to rectify the situation, and lockdown will have to be encouraged again(I.E. staying at home). To me that seems eminently sensible. I believe the Scottish Government is suggesting something similar, maybe even harsher, that the lockdown may be repeatedly eased and reimposed, 'with little notice'.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 15, 2020, 10:55:44 PM
I have no problem with the fact that this slogan has been criticised or that other Tories have supported it. I have no problem that you seem to think that it was too soon to relax the stay at home message. That wasn't the point of my query. In the context of who Grant Schapps, is(a member of the government), in the quote that you selected he simply seemed to be suggesting that if it is found that the R number goes up too far, then steps will be needed to rectify the situation, and lockdown will have to be encouraged again(I.E. staying at home). To me that seems eminently sensible. I believe the Scottish Government is suggesting something similar, maybe even harsher, that the lockdown may be repeatedly eased and reimposed, 'with little notice'.

I thought it utterly laughable that so soon after Boris's shiny new slogan was unveiled, and all his fellow Toryphants were falling over themselves to say how sensible it was, that Schapps so easily countenanced reversal when the received wisdom, Tory-wise, seemed to be that the slogan change was an absolutely super idea - so super that they never really needed to consult our the likes of our First Minister, and so super that three of the four parts of the (dis)United Kingdom have so far refused to adopt it.

I don't have an issue regarding the possibility that lockdown measures may need to be varied should circumstances require it.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Enki on May 16, 2020, 10:19:29 AM
I thought it utterly laughable that so soon after Boris's shiny new slogan was unveiled, and all his fellow Toryphants were falling over themselves to say how sensible it was, that Schapps so easily countenanced reversal when the received wisdom, Tory-wise, seemed to be that the slogan change was an absolutely super idea - so super that they never really needed to consult our the likes of our First Minister, and so super that three of the four parts of the (dis)United Kingdom have so far refused to adopt it.

I don't have an issue regarding the possibility that lockdown measures may need to be varied should circumstances require it.

I see nothing wrong in reversing the message if circumstances suggest that is the right thing to do(which is the message I got from Grant Scapps's statement). That doesn't in itself lead to the conclusion that the message must have been wrong in the first place. like all governments, they're on a learning curve with this virus. However I appreciate that you take a different view. Even though I found your responses unsatisfactory, thank you for taking the trouble to reply to my enquiries. Cheers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 16, 2020, 10:49:28 AM
A time line of the governments efforts:

https://appeasement.org/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 16, 2020, 10:53:41 AM
I see nothing wrong in reversing the message if circumstances suggest that is the right thing to do(which is the message I got from Grant Scapps's statement). That doesn't in itself lead to the conclusion that the message must have been wrong in the first place. like all governments, they're on a learning curve with this virus. However I appreciate that you take a different view. Even though I found your responses unsatisfactory, thank you for taking the trouble to reply to my enquiries. Cheers.

My main point, enki, isn't the message itself, or any need for revision, but the utter uselessness of this Tory government led, as it is, by a self-centred liar and populated, as it is, by a bunch of incompetent fuckwits.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on May 16, 2020, 12:31:03 PM
The head of our health agency today said in an interview that it looks like we might have smothered the virus in a matter of a couple weeks time. Some mixed messages have been given, but if true a good thing. Apparently the R number is under well under 1 and still moving towards zero.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 16, 2020, 12:50:23 PM
A time line of the governments efforts:

https://appeasement.org/
When was the right time to introduce lockdown measures then?

And why "appeasement". Should we take seriously a web site that suggests the government is trying to appease a virus?

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 16, 2020, 03:32:41 PM
I've started trying to catch up on my More or Less backlog. I'm still listening to episodes from March but I've already heard some interesting stuff.

For example Professor David Spiegelhalter calculated the risk of dying from COVID19 once you get it and he found that the risk of death from COVID19 is almost exactly the same as the risk of death within the next year under more normal circumstances no matter what your age or health status.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 16, 2020, 03:34:30 PM
When was the right time to introduce lockdown measures then?
...

That is a really hard question as we don't know what the government knew or the advice they had during the build up.

In the end what tipped them was the report from Imperial College (Ferguson) published on 16th March - even then Johnson came over as halfheartedly supporting it - not properly supported by the govt until the 23rd.

The study is essentially based on a basic SIR epidemiological model - that would have given the same projections in mid to late Feb - with assumptions based on the data from China.  In addition data from Italy was available late Feb/early March.

Given that info and the knowledge that the testing capacity was running out and PPE stocks inadequate even for a flu epidemic - they could have locked down by Mar 10th or, preferably, introduced a series of restrictions maybe avoiding eventual full lockdown - something more  like Germany or maybe even Sweden.   

But I feel the fundamental problem we have here is not the exact date of the measures taken, but that the trust in government has been undermined. This was true even even before the crisis, due to 3 years of arguing over brexit.

One group (against the continuing of any lockdown) is trying, even now, to force the gov to publish the scientific evidence presented and advice it had from SAGE

I think if the government had been open, seen as trustworthy, and properly communicated with people, instead of trying to hide things, we would have acted sooner and could have emerged with a lot less spread/deaths and economic damage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 16, 2020, 03:40:02 PM
I've started trying to catch up on my More or Less backlog. I'm still listening to episodes from March but I've already heard some interesting stuff.

For example Professor David Spiegelhalter calculated the risk of dying from COVID19 once you get it and he found that the risk of death from COVID19 is almost exactly the same as the risk of death within the next year under more normal circumstances no matter what your age or health status.

That was mentioned and discussed in this thread at the time.

It doesn't mean that we could or should ignore those deaths as (with current excess deaths running at an estimated 60k) many people who have died could have gone on to live for many fruitful years.
   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SweetPea on May 16, 2020, 03:48:22 PM
David Starkey's overall view on our Covid-19 situation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8S8Js-tEmlg

Quite harsh at times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 16, 2020, 03:56:29 PM
That is a really hard question as we don't know what the government knew or the advice they had during the build up.

In the end what tipped them was the report from Imperial College (Ferguson) published on 16th March - even then Johnson came over as halfheartedly supporting it - not properly supported by the govt until the 23rd.

The study is essentially based on a basic SIR epidemiological model - that would have given the same projections in mid to late Feb - with assumptions based on the data from China.  In addition data from Italy was available late Feb/early March.

Given that info and the knowledge that the testing capacity was running out and PPE stocks inadequate even for a flu epidemic - they could have locked down by Mar 10th or, preferably, introduced a series of restrictions maybe avoiding eventual full lockdown - something more  like Germany or maybe even Sweden.   

But I feel the fundamental problem we have here is not the exact date of the measures taken, but that the trust in government has been undermined. This was true even even before the crisis, due to 3 years of arguing over brexit.

I would argue that the government has actually done very little to undermine trust in it since the coronavirus thing started. I doubt if anybody's mind has been changed by its performance on coronavirus. They made their bed before this all started.

Quote
One group (against the continuing of any lockdown) is trying, even now, to force the gov to publish the scientific evidence presented and advice it had from SAGE

Which I agree they should do. Governments in this country seem to have some sort of aversion to publishing information for the public to see. It was almost comical in the Brexit negotiations where our government was trying to keep its position secret so as not to tip our hand to the enemy, whereas the EU was completely open about its position and they pasted us.

On the subject of Neil Ferguson's computer model, it is apparently worryingly badly implemented.

https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 16, 2020, 05:24:35 PM
...
On the subject of Neil Ferguson's computer model, it is apparently worryingly badly implemented.

https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/

It does sound terrible ... maybe I can find time to look at it later this summer.

There is also this review (of the report) from Taleb et al. perspective:

https://necsi.edu/review-of-ferguson-et-al-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 16, 2020, 05:36:28 PM
David Starkey's overall view on our Covid-19 situation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8S8Js-tEmlg

Quite harsh at times.
Long time no see, and all that, but who cares tuppence what a right-wing historian thinks about Covid-19, since he has no relevant expertise?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 16, 2020, 05:46:25 PM
It does sound terrible ... maybe I can find time to look at it later this summer.

There is also this review from Taleb et al. perspective:

https://necsi.edu/review-of-ferguson-et-al-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions

The paper I linked is bad. In a nutshell, if you run the model twice with the same inputs including using the same random number sequence, you will get different results. This non determinism is indicative of a serious bug. My money would be on heap corruption given it is written in C++.

Your paper is worse though because it points out serious flaws in the model which means that, even if they fix the bugs in the program, it’ll still give invalid results.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 16, 2020, 06:08:55 PM
The paper I linked is bad. In a nutshell, if you run the model twice with the same inputs including using the same random number sequence, you will get different results. This non determinism is indicative of a serious bug. My money would be on heap corruption given it is written in C++.

Your paper is worse though because it points out serious flaws in the model which means that, even if they fix the bugs in the program, it’ll still give invalid results.

Just using the basic SIR model, on paper without any computer simulations, and plugging in the estimated parameters from late Feb it is straightforward to calculate the 60% infection needed for herd immunity (if immunity is possible) and the likely 0.5m death figure assuming no intervention. *

Ferguson was going a lot further, trying to work out the effects of the different ways of intervening.

We don't really know what swung the decisions made as they were "following the scientific advice" before and after.

ETA: * Note. This is very crude and can't really model human epidemics in any detail as contact, therefore spread, is not fully random but networked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on May 16, 2020, 08:19:31 PM
Long time no see, and all that, but who cares tuppence what a right-wing historian thinks about Covid-19, since he has no relevant expertise?

Indeed. Stopped lustening after about six minutes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 16, 2020, 10:10:10 PM
Isn't it going well!

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/16/revolt-over-easing-lockdown-spreads-as-poll-slump-hits-prime-minister
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 17, 2020, 08:12:37 PM

Big fan of Gaiman's work. But he's a prick here

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-52697289?fbclid=IwAR0MqJLSmcmXgihh-k6mBsGnh_76w0FSd3uCdhn_PC58z8_i0DuoBZTgItw
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 17, 2020, 09:13:37 PM
The whole Thursday clap stuff put into  petspective


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-52699962/coronavirus-belgian-hospital-staff-turn-backs-on-pm-sophie-wilms
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on May 17, 2020, 10:30:58 PM
The whole Thursday clap stuff put into  petspective


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-52699962/coronavirus-belgian-hospital-staff-turn-backs-on-pm-sophie-wilms
Can you imagine the furore from festering rhinos tw**s like N. Ferrari and Ian Bunkum Shit if the NHS did that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 18, 2020, 11:46:22 AM
A sudden loss of smell and taste can be symptoms of the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 18, 2020, 12:03:41 PM
A sudden loss of smell and taste can be symptoms of the virus.

This has been known for awhile now.

As the BBC reports:
Quote
Prof Nirmal Kumar from ENT UK, the body that represents ear, nose and throat doctors, said the change was "better late than never".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 18, 2020, 12:04:45 PM
A sudden loss of smell and taste can be symptoms of the virus.
It's really odd that something that was being openly talked about as a symptom by people with the virus 4 months ago took this long to be officially added
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 18, 2020, 12:10:39 PM
It's really odd that something that was being openly talked about as a symptom by people with the virus 4 months ago took this long to be officially added
Anecdotes are not evidence. People have been talking about it for a long time but whether it is a reliable symptom of COVID19 or not needs to be investigated properly. That would take a while.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 18, 2020, 12:15:44 PM
Anecdotes are not evidence. People have been talking about it for a long time but whether it is a reliable symptom of COVID19 or not needs to be investigated properly. That would take a while.
How long did the dry cough take to be identified as s symptom?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 18, 2020, 12:26:46 PM
How long did the dry cough take to be identified as s symptom?
No idea. I don't think we really know how long the virus was propagating in China and the authorities were aware of it before its characteristic symptoms were identified.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on May 18, 2020, 01:49:16 PM
A sudden loss of smell and taste can be symptoms of the virus.

The taste solution bit could easily be resolved by not relying on the BBC and the Guardian as a source of news and no I'm not a right wing party supporter.

Regards LR, ippy.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 18, 2020, 01:55:30 PM
The taste solution bit could easily be resolved by not relying on the BBC and the Guardian as a source of news and no I'm not a right wing party supporter.

Regards LR, ippy.

I think the BBC is the best source of news, not perfect of course, but what is?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on May 18, 2020, 02:26:01 PM
It does sound terrible ... maybe I can find time to look at it later this summer.

There is also this review (of the report) from Taleb et al. perspective:

https://necsi.edu/review-of-ferguson-et-al-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions

I was wondering what Taleb was saying currently, a striking sentence in the abstract, "the outbreak can be stopped completely with no resurgence".   This is through contact tracing, which the UK govt is struggling towards.   But I think large numbers preclude it, although possibly local testing works, not centralized.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 18, 2020, 03:49:38 PM
The taste solution bit could easily be resolved by not relying on the BBC and the Guardian as a source of news and no I'm not a right wing party supporter.

Regards LR, ippy.

Give it a rest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 18, 2020, 04:00:58 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52713127

All over fives in the UK are now eligible for the virus test if they are displaying any symptoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 18, 2020, 04:13:30 PM
Figures showing that the death toll for men 20 - 34 is down in comparison to normal rates. Presumably lock down has reduced deaths by RTAs and violence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on May 18, 2020, 04:34:47 PM
Give it a rest.

Not that much about France and Italy having a bit of a protest against the EU, or anything about some German bloke arrested for burning an EU flag.

I'll have to have a look at the Guardian, no doubt, for a full report or the top story on the BBC's six o'clock news on the T V. Not.

ippy
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 18, 2020, 04:41:48 PM
Not that much about France and Italy having a bit of a protest against the EU, or anything about some German bloke arrested for burning an EU flag.

I'll have to have a look at the Guardian, no doubt, for a full report or the top story on the BBC's six o'clock news on the T V. Not.

ippy

See the Brexit thread. Eat your words.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Owlswing on May 18, 2020, 06:51:48 PM

Figures showing that the death toll for men 20 - 34 is down in comparison to normal rates. Presumably lock down has reduced deaths by RTAs and violence.


 . . . and STD's?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 18, 2020, 06:59:31 PM
. . . and STD's?
in a reduction of death tolls in 3 months?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 18, 2020, 07:32:27 PM
Glasgow covid graffiti art


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-52646104
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 19, 2020, 07:29:31 AM
Encouraging news.  https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/18/moderna-reports-positive-data-on-early-stage-coronavirus-vaccine-trial.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain&fbclid=IwAR0-rX1VYagDDZA2HHxdafF-QEb6PsIij0EjioFu6mzcBKFT_67u7FCWTFc
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on May 19, 2020, 11:28:41 AM
See the Brexit thread. Eat your words.

Yes Trent I suppose it's a bit of the King Canute syndrome taking over, facing reality, still it's reasonably good news overall.

Regards, ippy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on May 19, 2020, 11:35:19 AM
The government has unveiled plans to reopen restaurants and bars on the 1st of June. Tables only, alcohol cam be sold until 10pm and they have to close by 11pm and customer capacity will be halved. These rules will be in force until October. That first beer and game of pool will be so sweet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 19, 2020, 12:20:45 PM
The government has unveiled plans to reopen restaurants and bars on the 1st of June. Tables only, alcohol cam be sold until 10pm and they have to close by 11pm and customer capacity will be halved. These rules will be in force until October. That first beer and game of pool will be so sweet.
Thank gawd for that!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 19, 2020, 12:26:27 PM
Thank gawd for that!
Not the UK govts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 19, 2020, 12:33:55 PM
Yes Trent I suppose it's a bit of the King Canute syndrome taking over, facing reality, still it's reasonably good news overall.

Regards, ippy.

Whatever you have perceived of the Guardian, it has never been slavishly uncritical of the EU. Nuanced, in favour of it certainly, but not uncritical.

But then the great British public has over the years become less and less used to nuance, which leads us to a place where we can only discuss issues in terms that tend to be diametrically opposed to each other. It bodes ill for the country.

Regards TV.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 19, 2020, 04:42:53 PM

So much for the Thursday clap.




https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/may/18/tories-accused-of-hypocrisy-over-key-workers-with-immigration-bill?fbclid=IwAR1PpJQXMdUF7H3dFXwuIl-H0EczBCnh1Ar_x4nH9qwKg7DLGLgUyHlaxR0
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on May 19, 2020, 05:20:38 PM
Whatever you have perceived of the Guardian, it has never been slavishly uncritical of the EU. Nuanced, in favour of it certainly, but not uncritical.

But then the great British public has over the years become less and less used to nuance, which leads us to a place where we can only discuss issues in terms that tend to be diametrically opposed to each other. It bodes ill for the country.

Regards TV.

The reason I don't like the Guardian is mainly the few times I've picked up it has really annoyed me with its unrealistic take on life so I just don't bother with it.

Now the BBC, I would describe them as brilliantly underhanded and never missing a trick.

Regards, ippy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on May 19, 2020, 06:38:31 PM
The reason I don't like the Guardian is mainly the few times I've picked up it has really annoyed me with its unrealistic take on life so I just don't bother with it.

I know that I am asking for far too much here, but would please give us an example of the Guardian's "unrealistic take on life" and explain why it is unrealistic?

Quote
Now the BBC, I would describe them as brilliantly underhanded and never missing a trick.

Again, give us an example. Tell us about at least one of the "tricks" related to its coverage of the Covid-19 affair.. (My prediction is that you will worm your way out of this without giving a straight answer.) Has it never crossed your mind that the BBC is - apart from the monarchy - possibly the best known and most respected British brand in the rest of the world?

If making assertions without a scrap of evidence were an Olympic activity, we could guarantee that you would be in the medals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 19, 2020, 10:08:26 PM
Not the UK govts.
Shitshitshitshitshit! Not till July at the earliest here! >:( >:( >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 20, 2020, 09:02:01 AM
John Crace hits the back of the net again.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/19/michael-gove-proves-ultimate-shapeshifter-while-george-eustice-leads-masterclass-in-banality
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 20, 2020, 09:10:13 AM
. . . and STD's?
Don't generally kill people anymore.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 20, 2020, 09:14:50 AM
Now I'm depressed. Serco is involved in Britain's contact tracing effort.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52732818

We're all doomed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 20, 2020, 09:19:14 AM
I hope Serco compensates them for this inexcusable error.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 20, 2020, 10:42:47 AM
The reason I don't like the Guardian is mainly the few times I've picked up it has really annoyed me with its unrealistic take on life so I just don't bother with it.

Now the BBC, I would describe them as brilliantly underhanded and never missing a trick.

Regards, ippy.
This just translates as "The Guardian and the BBC challenge my prejudices".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 20, 2020, 11:33:29 AM
I hope Serco compensates them for this inexcusable error.
It was actually a pretty minor error. Somebody wrote an email and cc'd everybody instead of bcc'ing everybody. If it's a crime, it concerns me because I commit it every time I send an email to more than one person.

What I was really driving at is the fact that Serco are involved at all. It's a terrible company. I've dealt with them a few times on government contracts and they've always been really bad at everything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 20, 2020, 11:52:15 AM
It was actually a pretty minor error. Somebody wrote an email and cc'd everybody instead of bcc'ing everybody. If it's a crime, it concerns me because I commit it every time I send an email to more than one person.

What I was really driving at is the fact that Serco are involved at all. It's a terrible company. I've dealt with them a few times on government contracts and they've always been really bad at everything.

I doubt that the people concerned will see it as a minor error.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 20, 2020, 11:56:54 AM
I doubt that the people concerned will see it as a minor error.
Do you ever write emails and copy it in to other people without using bcc? If so, you've done exactly the same thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 20, 2020, 11:59:21 AM
I doubt that the people concerned will see it as a minor error.

hmm. they'll be contacting many strangers in any case - I assume using the same e-mail addrs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 21, 2020, 11:04:56 AM

Good news:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/21/boohoo-founders-team-up-with-biotech-firm-for-covid-19-home-test-kit-uk-july

Exactly what is needed - other companies are also working on home saliva tests.

Bad news:

https://www.ft.com/content/46733256-5a84-4429-89e0-8cce9d4095e4

Death toll remains high in Sweden.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 21, 2020, 02:05:26 PM

Some interesting stats

https://www.newstatesman.com/2020/05/despite-50000-excess-deaths-britains-most-vulnerable-areas-remain-risk-covid-19
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 21, 2020, 05:11:47 PM
Good to see this has happened


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52761052
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 21, 2020, 05:15:01 PM
And not before time, we need those workers more than ever now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 21, 2020, 05:27:39 PM
And not before time, we need those workers more than ever now.
Thought needs to be given to backdating it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 21, 2020, 05:37:52 PM
Thought needs to be given to backdating it.

I agree.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on May 21, 2020, 06:11:56 PM
Good news:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/21/boohoo-founders-team-up-with-biotech-firm-for-covid-19-home-test-kit-uk-july

Exactly what is needed - other companies are also working on home saliva tests.

Bad news:

https://www.ft.com/content/46733256-5a84-4429-89e0-8cce9d4095e4

Death toll remains high in Sweden.

About three quarters of all deaths in Sweden have happened in care homes. Care workers were also told not to send elderly patients with the virus to hospital. The whole thing is a scandal and their chief virologist is arrogant. I find it strange that Sweden has taken a different path given that culturally us Nordic countries are all very similar. It also has to be said that Sweden's constitution doesn't allow the government to adopt emergency powers during a pandemic. Ours does, but then we became independent just a year before the Spanish Flu, so the writers of our constituion had that in mind.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 21, 2020, 09:42:11 PM
As each day passes it seems John Crace finds it increasingly easy to hit the back of the net: no real surprise there of course.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/21/matt-hancock-is-not-ok-someone-really-ought-to-furlough-him
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 22, 2020, 08:59:16 AM
As each day passes it seems John Crace finds it increasingly easy to hit the back of the net: no real surprise there of course.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/21/matt-hancock-is-not-ok-someone-really-ought-to-furlough-him

It is very scary. :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 22, 2020, 09:37:45 AM
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/tens-thousands-coronavirus-tests-have-double-counted-officials/?

(For Ippy, Telegraph)

So I feel sorry for any satirical outlets currently, because the government is clearly trying to outdo them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 11:33:57 AM
Not sure who is annoying me most, the people who want me to clap for Sturgeon or Johnson,or the people who say that it's like Nuremberg
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 22, 2020, 11:57:04 AM
Not sure who is annoying me most, the people who want me to clap for Sturgeon or Johnson
Who are those people - I've never met one - I thought we were clapping for our emergency workers and key workers.

,or the people who say that it's like Nuremberg
Again - who is saying that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 12:02:20 PM
Who are those people - I've never met one - I thought we were clapping for our emergency workers and key workers.
Again - who is saying that?
Social media. And they want separate claps from the Thursday one. And the people who reply say it's like Nuremberg.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 22, 2020, 12:03:19 PM
Social media. And they want separate claps from the Thursday one. And the people who reply say it's like Nuremberg.

They are being stupid!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 22, 2020, 12:05:36 PM
Social media. And they want separate claps from the Thursday one. And the people who reply say it's like Nuremberg.
Who and where - I've never seen anyone suggest this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 22, 2020, 12:06:41 PM
Who and where - I've never seen anyone suggest this.

Nor have I.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 12:17:16 PM
Who and where - I've never seen anyone suggest this.
  Again social media.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 22, 2020, 12:27:18 PM
  Again social media.
Sorry NS - just going 'social media' isn't really answering the question is it - social media is just a collective term for a range of communication platforms. What I am asking is which people have said this and where - ideally with a link.

Just going 'social media' is about as useful as answering 'in a book' if asked where a particular view or piece of information came from.

So can you tell me please which person or people are saying this and on what platform, preferably with a link. Reason being I've never hear these claims myself and I cannot really comment on them until I see those claims.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 12:40:11 PM
Sorry NS - just going 'social media' isn't really answering the question is it - social media is just a collective term for a range of communication platforms. What I am asking is which people have said this and where - ideally with a link.

Just going 'social media' is about as useful as answering 'in a book' if asked where a particular view or piece of information came from.

So can you tell me please which person or people are saying this and on what platform, preferably with a link. Reason being I've never hear these claims myself and I cannot really comment on them until I see those claims.

Why would I need you to comment on them?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 22, 2020, 12:42:43 PM
I seem to remember that there was some suggestion (can't remember from whom) that we should clap for Boris Johnson on a different day back when he was in hospital in early April. But I'm sure this was a one off suggestion and was roundly ignored by everyone.

There was also a suggestion (Ben Fogle perhaps) that we should clap for the Queen on a different day, but that was roundly ignored too. People are still coming out at 8pm every Thursday to clap for the NHS and carers etc. And certainly on my street - as far as I can see up and down from my house - every household is doing it still.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 22, 2020, 12:43:39 PM
Why would I need you to comment on them?
Because this is a message board - that's how it works NS. Someone makes a point and other people comment on it :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 12:53:10 PM
Because this is a message board - that's how it works NS. Someone makes a point and other people comment on it :o
But people don't have to comment. If you haven't seen something that's fine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 12:55:48 PM
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18467324.coronavirus-call-clap-nic-tribute-nicola-sturgeon/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 22, 2020, 01:31:11 PM
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18467324.coronavirus-call-clap-nic-tribute-nicola-sturgeon/
So when you say 'the people who want me to clap for Sturgeon', you actually mean Howard Begg, 63 from East Lothian - FFS - I wish I'd never asked.

At least people had heard of Ben Fogle and his suggestion of clapping for the Queen was widely derided and universally ignored.

I can't image there will be many people round my neck of the woods clapping for Sturgeon between 6pm and 6:10pm (don't you just love the accuracy) tonight. I'll check in at 6:15 tonight for your update on whether anyone was clapping round your neck of the woods - somehow I suspect not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 22, 2020, 01:33:07 PM
So when you say 'the people who want me to clap for Sturgeon', you actually mean Howard Begg, 63 from East Lothian - FFS - I wish I'd never asked.

At least people had heard of Ben Fogle and his suggestion of clapping for the Queen was widely derided and universally ignored.

I am happy to clap for Her Majesty. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 01:36:42 PM
So when you say 'the people who want me to clap for Sturgeon', you actually mean Howard Begg, 63 from East Lothian - FFS - I wish I'd never asked.

At least people had heard of Ben Fogle and his suggestion of clapping for the Queen was widely derided and universally ignored.

I can't image there will be many people round my neck of the woods clapping for Sturgeon between 6pm and 6:10pm (don't you just love the accuracy) tonight. I'll check in at 6:15 tonight for your update on whether anyone was clapping round your neck of the woods - somehow I suspect not.
No, he isn't alone on social media as the report makes clear. And at no point did I say that you had heard of the people so why Fogle's fame has anything to do with it, I have no idea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 22, 2020, 01:54:57 PM
I am happy to clap for Her Majesty. :)
Did you at 9am on the 21st April - which was when Fogle wanted this to happen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 22, 2020, 02:00:24 PM
No, he isn't alone on social media as the report makes clear.
Yes he is - did you actually read the article.

In terms of social media the article says there is nothing on twitter, but there is a Facebook event ... 'organised under the name "CLAP FOR NIC", but so far only one person has said they will be attending' - that one person presumably being ... err ...Howard Begg, 63 from East Lothian :o

And you also mentioned clap for Boris - where it this then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 02:11:51 PM
My friend has just got out of hospital. Hurrah
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 22, 2020, 02:14:32 PM
My friend has just got out of hospital. Hurrah

That is great. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on May 22, 2020, 02:21:59 PM
My friend has just got out of hospital. Hurrah

Good stuff! :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 22, 2020, 02:26:21 PM
My friend has just got out of hospital. Hurrah
Great - that is worth clapping about ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 22, 2020, 02:27:36 PM
My friend has just got out of hospital. Hurrah

Good news!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 22, 2020, 02:39:05 PM
On the clapping. Our household has stopped. Not, because for one moment we don't value the NHS. We do. As some will know I used to work in it and still have friends putting themselves at risk everyday to care for people with Covid 19.

My problem with it is two fold. It's getting a bit poppy day-ish. You now have to clap. People are  watching to see who is clapping and who isn't - I mean even Prof D is taking notes of who is clapping on his street  ;) and I don't like that kind of enforced "jollity". It smacks too much of New Years Eve where you are forced to have a damn good time whether you want to or not.

The other reason, and this is more difficult to explain, is that it kind of diverts from what has happened in the past and what is happening now in the NHS. I live in Worthing and I can guarantee that the majority of people on my street, all of whom come out and clap (and take note of who is not clapping), vote Conservative.

Well whoop-di-do, if they hadn't voted Tory the NHS would not be in the mess it is in now. Underfunded for the last decade, wages frozen, buildings left to deteriorate way past any safe working levels. This happened in the last 10 years. I have seen it and experienced it.

Instead of clapping try not voting Conservative, in the long run it will do the NHS much more good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 02:48:49 PM
Great - that is worth clapping about ;)
I will be raising a glass. We've had a virtual whisky tasting support group for her husband over the last 8 weeks, and it will be good to have the scheduled one on Sunday, and be able to say hello
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 22, 2020, 02:49:45 PM
Instead of clapping try not voting Conservative, in the long run it will do the NHS much more good.
It is possible to clap and also not vote Tory - I do (and don't).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 02:50:54 PM
It is possible to clap and also not vote Tory - I do (and don't).
Trent didn't say that the only people clapping did vote Tory.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 22, 2020, 02:56:54 PM
Trent didn't say that the only people clapping did vote Tory.
I know he didn't - but I think one of the reasons he's stopped clapping (as presumably a non-tory voter) is because he doesn't really want to be part of a hypocritical circus where tory voters are now suddenly wanting to support the NHS when in the ballot box they acted otherwise.

I understand that argument but it doesn't stop me clapping - I think the clapping is more about those who cannot right now support the NHS showing their appreciation for individual NHS (and other) workers who are on the front line.

I think the time for a more comprehensive reappraisal of the value of the NHS isn't right now, but I do think there will be plenty of right wing NHS nay-sayers who will find their message more difficult to get across in due course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 22, 2020, 03:00:04 PM
Yo are correct in your presumption. And I can and do ring friends who are still working to ask them how they are and how much I value their work, so I suppose I'm lucky to be able to express my thanks in a more direct fashion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 03:26:38 PM
On the clapping. Our household has stopped. Not, because for one moment we don't value the NHS. We do. As some will know I used to work in it and still have friends putting themselves at risk everyday to care for people with Covid 19.

My problem with it is two fold. It's getting a bit poppy day-ish. You now have to clap. People are  watching to see who is clapping and who isn't - I mean even Prof D is taking notes of who is clapping on his street  ;) and I don't like that kind of enforced "jollity". It smacks too much of New Years Eve where you are forced to have a damn good time whether you want to or not.

The other reason, and this is more difficult to explain, is that it kind of diverts from what has happened in the past and what is happening now in the NHS. I live in Worthing and I can guarantee that the majority of people on my street, all of whom come out and clap (and take note of who is not clapping), vote Conservative.

Well whoop-di-do, if they hadn't voted Tory the NHS would not be in the mess it is in now. Underfunded for the last decade, wages frozen, buildings left to deteriorate way past any safe working levels. This happened in the last 10 years. I have seen it and experienced it.

Instead of clapping try not voting Conservative, in the long run it will do the NHS much more good.

Yep,us too


https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/may/21/nhs-doctor-enough-people-clapping
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 03:53:29 PM
Ffs!


https://www.newsweek.com/covid-19-conspiracy-theories-england-1505899?amp=1&__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 22, 2020, 04:35:43 PM
Ffs!


https://www.newsweek.com/covid-19-conspiracy-theories-england-1505899?amp=1&__twitter_impression=true

It is so sad that people can believe that sort of garbage to be true.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52773032

The clap for NHS workers and carers will end next Thursday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 22, 2020, 05:02:22 PM
Yo are correct in your presumption. And I can and do ring friends who are still working to ask them how they are and how much I value their work, so I suppose I'm lucky to be able to express my thanks in a more direct fashion.
Sure - seems reasonable.

I think there is another reason why I've continued to clap - not just to support the NHS and other front line worker, but also for community cohesion and spirit. It is lovely to see all our neighbours out, and whether we interact with just a friendly wave or a bit of a chat it is great to see everyone. And we all know that at 8pm on Thursdays we will be there for a wave or a chat.

I know not all neighbourhoods are like this, but our street has really pulled together over the past couple of months and it is great to see.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 05:15:13 PM
Ffs!


https://www.newsweek.com/covid-19-conspiracy-theories-england-1505899?amp=1&__twitter_impression=true

Link to original report


http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-05-22-conspiracy-beliefs-reduces-following-government-coronavirus-guidance?fbclid=IwAR3psJTMFuEg5MG0V_hXx_eIZZDXmPXFBkv8nZ-rzL2GGZfRybKChKmhSZU
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 22, 2020, 07:05:31 PM
About three quarters of all deaths in Sweden have happened in care homes. Care workers were also told not to send elderly patients with the virus to hospital.
So you are saying that people who are known to have coronavirus should be sent to a hospital with a lot of vulnerable people in it (by definition).  I'm not saying that is necessarily the wrong thing to do but you need to be aware of what the consequences of that are.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 22, 2020, 07:09:27 PM
As each day passes it seems John Crace finds it increasingly easy to hit the back of the net: no real surprise there of course.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/21/matt-hancock-is-not-ok-someone-really-ought-to-furlough-him

If "the back of the net" is showing yourself as a sneering arse, I'd agree.

Quote
It was a nice afternoon, he was about to go on a 10-day Whitsun break with Carrie, Dilyn the dog and some baby that had mysteriously appeared in Downing Street,

John Crace probably has some important points to make but the above quote shows he is also a complete wanker.

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 07:14:15 PM
If "the back of the net" is showing yourself as a sneering arse, I'd agree.

John Crace probably has some important points to make but the above quote shows he is also a complete wanker.
Does Boris like you in the cheerleading outfit?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 22, 2020, 07:15:48 PM
Why would I need you to comment on them?

Maybe "need" is the wrong verb. "Want" might be better, but in the context of posting on a message board where the main purpose is to solicit other people's opinions, the distinction is not really that important.

I don't see why you are so reluctant to provide the information asked for.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 07:21:39 PM
Maybe "need" is the wrong verb. "Want" might be better, but in the context of posting on a message board where the main purpose is to solicit other people's opinions, the distinction is not really that important.

I don't see why you are so reluctant to provide the information asked for.
But why would I want any specific individual to comment on any specific thing? If they have no knowledge of it?  I am reluctant to link to Facebook and Twitter for (1) the same reason that I prefer the Guardian to the Times or The Telegraph because of access, (2) because it links in some cases to people I Know, (3) because in some cases it might allow more identification of me than I generally do here. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 22, 2020, 07:26:21 PM
Maybe "need" is the wrong verb. "Want" might be better, but in the context of posting on a message board where the main purpose is to solicit other people's opinions, the distinction is not really that important.

I don't see why you are so reluctant to provide the information asked for.
Exactly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 22, 2020, 07:30:15 PM
If "the back of the net" is showing yourself as a sneering arse, I'd agree.

The current bunch of Tory fuckwits regularly provide ample grounds to be sneered at - and deservedly so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 22, 2020, 07:30:36 PM
But why would I want any specific individual to comment on any specific thing? If they have no knowledge of it?  I am reluctant to link to Facebook and Twitter for (1) the same reason that I prefer the Guardian to the Times or The Telegraph because of access, (2) because it links in some cases to people I Know, (3) because in some cases it might allow more identification of me than I generally do here.
But that's the whole point of the MB - someone posts somethings and we engage with each other by commenting on what has been posted. But if you are unwilling to provide the information to allow that ebb and flow then there is really very little point in a message board.

If you are concerned over privacy (I'm not convinced you are - or perhaps you are actually Howard Begg) then don't make the post in the first place. And you can usually provide sufficient information to elicit discussion without risking privacy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 07:33:10 PM
But that's the whole point of the MB - someone posts somethings and we engage with each other by commenting on what has been posted. But if you are unwilling to provide the information to allow that ebb and flow then there is really very little point in a message board.

If you are concerned over privacy (I'm not convinced you are - or perhaps you are actually Howard Begg) then don't make the post in the first place. And you can usually provide sufficient information to elicit discussion without risking privacy.
I am not convinced you are not convinced.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 22, 2020, 07:33:55 PM
Yo are correct in your presumption. And I can and do ring friends who are still working to ask them how they are and how much I value their work, so I suppose I'm lucky to be able to express my thanks in a more direct fashion.
When landlords and mortgage lenders start accepting claps in lieu of actual money, I'll start clapping. Until then, I'll support politicians that support the NHS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 22, 2020, 07:36:30 PM
Does Boris like you in the cheerleading outfit?
Criticising people who sneer in the way that article does does not imply I an a cheerleader for Boris.

If you disagree with me about something, that's fine, but the insults are beneath you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 07:36:56 PM
When landlords and mortgage lenders start accepting claps in lieu of actual money, I'll start clapping. Until then, I'll support politicians that support the NHS.
That point would seem better addressed to Prof D in context rather than Trent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 07:38:02 PM
Criticising people who sneer in the way that article does does not imply I an a cheerleader for Boris.

If you disagree with me about something, that's fine, but the insults are beneath you.
Yawn.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 22, 2020, 07:39:25 PM
But why would I want any specific individual to comment on any specific thing?
Nobody has said you want any specific individual to comment, but the fact you posted here leads to a reasonable inference that you want other people generally to comment.

Quote
If they have no knowledge of it?  I am reluctant to link to Facebook and Twitter for (1) the same reason that I prefer the Guardian to the Times or The Telegraph because of access, (2) because it links in some cases to people I Know, (3) because in some cases it might allow more identification of me than I generally do here.

If you are not prepared to link to your own sources, that's not our problem, it's yours. Perhaps you could provide the link and quotes from it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 22, 2020, 07:40:12 PM
The current bunch of Tory fuckwits regularly provide ample grounds to be sneered at - and deservedly so.
I prefer reasoned argument, not sneers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 22, 2020, 07:41:26 PM
That point would seem better addressed to Prof D in context rather than Trent.
I was replying in support of Trent. Replying to somebody does not necessarily imply disagreement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 22, 2020, 07:41:41 PM
When landlords and mortgage lenders start accepting claps in lieu of actual money, I'll start clapping. Until then, I'll support politicians that support the NHS.
Like I said it isn't one or the other. I've always supported politicians that support the NHS - indeed campaigned very actively for the last government that genuinely did support the NHS, in my opinion.

But that doesn't mean I won't clap for the NHS workers and other front line workers - they deserve our recognition through the symbolism of the clapping (there is very little else we can do at this immediate point) and they also deserve the support of a government that genuinely believes in the NHS and it prepared to put in the resources to back the NHS - that we don't have at the moment and, sadly, we are unlikely to be able to change that for a while.

Anyhow it seems that next Thursday's clap will be the last one and I think that is probably right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 22, 2020, 07:41:56 PM
Yawn.

I stand correct. Clearly insults are not beneath you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 07:43:14 PM
Nobody has said you want any specific individual to comment, but the fact you posted here leads to a reasonable inference that you want other people generally to comment.

If you are not prepared to link to your own sources, that's not our problem, it's yours. Perhaps you could provide the link and quotes from it.
I would have been happy to expand. Indeed I did when I found a source that wasn't problematic for the issues i have explained. And Prof D further covered that he knew of some idiot's attempt to clap for Johnson.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 22, 2020, 07:43:24 PM
I am not convinced you are not convinced.
Why?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 07:44:19 PM
I stand correct. Clearly insults are not beneath you.
That I find your position tedious is not an insult.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 07:45:41 PM
Why?
Because you have a modicum of intelligence and my post was saying that I found his position annoying. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 07:47:40 PM
That I find your position tedious is not an insult.
The cheerleading one was, or at least mockery
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 22, 2020, 07:53:28 PM
Because you have a modicum of intelligence ...
Thank you - praise indeed.

... and my post was saying that I found his position annoying.
Sorry I think we are talking at cross purposes. In reply 2002 my lack of conviction was over your claim that privacy concerns were what preventing you providing details about who wanted to clap for Sturgeon or Boris.

I was asking why you were not convinced that I was not convinced - in other words implying that I was convinced that you'd failed to provide this information on privacy grounds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 07:57:57 PM
Thank you - praise indeed.
Sorry I think we are talking at cross purposes. In reply 2002 my lack of conviction was over your claim that privacy concerns were what preventing you providing details about who wanted to clap for Sturgeon or Boris.

I was asking why you were not convinced that I was not convinced - in other words implying that I was convinced that you'd failed to provide this information on privacy grounds.
I appreciate your mind reading. However I have explained my issue, and given when I found a non direct link, I provided it, I still don't see why you think I was not telling the truth about my motivation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on May 22, 2020, 08:10:30 PM
So you are saying that people who are known to have coronavirus should be sent to a hospital with a lot of vulnerable people in it (by definition).  I'm not saying that is necessarily the wrong thing to do but you need to be aware of what the consequences of that are.

Of course there are risks in sending corona patients to hospital, but I was under the impression that certain hospitals had been set aside for corona patients, in which case there should have been no hesitation in sending them to hospital. And anyway, age shouldn't come into it, especially since their hospitals are still within capacity. In any case, what has happened is that elderly patients have been abandoned, hence the high death rate. A scandal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on May 22, 2020, 08:58:36 PM
Of course there are risks in sending corona patients to hospital, but I was under the impression that certain hospitals had been set aside for corona patients, in which case there should have been no hesitation in sending them to hospital. And anyway, age shouldn't come into it, especially since their hospitals are still within capacity. In any case, what has happened is that elderly patients have been abandoned, hence the high death rate. A scandal.

I've been following the John's Hopkins data and have seen quite an increase in the UK numbers of cases and deaths.  Yesterday, I watched a PBS Frontline documentary on one Italian hospital and one of their doctors. It was very well done and showed how quickly they struggled with lack of capacity.  I wondered if you all there are experiencing anything like that.  We almost did in NYCity (I have one son who lives on Manhattan.) But, the governor there ordered temporary hospitals built, and they built quite a few!

On the Florida front, I was following the data out of our Department of Health, when I noticed a huge spike in the influenza/pneumonia deaths at the end of April (as the season usually is significantly ebbing.)  Right after that, the governor ordered that the pneumonia numbers be taken out of the tally.  That, and reports from hospitals and coroners that the governor is pressuring them to not report the numbers of COVID19 deaths has me concerned.  The deliberate deception seems criminal to me. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Enki on May 22, 2020, 09:34:18 PM
Like I said it isn't one or the other. I've always supported politicians that support the NHS - indeed campaigned very actively for the last government that genuinely did support the NHS, in my opinion.

But that doesn't mean I won't clap for the NHS workers and other front line workers - they deserve our recognition through the symbolism of the clapping (there is very little else we can do at this immediate point) and they also deserve the support of a government that genuinely believes in the NHS and it prepared to put in the resources to back the NHS - that we don't have at the moment and, sadly, we are unlikely to be able to change that for a while.

Anyhow it seems that next Thursday's clap will be the last one and I think that is probably right.

My wife and I have clapped every Thursday. Our reasons are quite simple. In this extraordinary situation we feel we needed to come together to support all the frontline workers and especially the NHS workers in our small way. We also felt that these weekly claps were a unifying influence for people of all ages and hopefully strengthened the resolve of the whole community to be continually aware and observe the lockdown as much as possible. We do however accept that it is entirely appropriate that this response is starting to outlive its usefulness and probably needs to finish sometime soon.

My wife worked all her working life as a nurse in the NHS, one of our sons is a firefighter and one of our grandaughters works as a carer, but we all feel that at such an extraordinary time as this any criticisms we may have of the NHS(e.g. the Mid Staffordhire debacle, the NHS's almost indiscriminate wastage, the way Bevan bought the consultants' backing by 'stuffing their mouths with gold', the graduate entry only policy of the RCN or the horrendously expensive and failed National IT system, and many more) are not forgotten but put on the back burner because the human values of the selflessness, heroic dedication and bloody hard work of the key workers are the things that are uppermost in our minds at the moment.

Constructive criticism of the present government and how they are handling this crisis is certainly ok by us. We have plenty of criticisms ourselves, just as we had of all sorts of Health Ministers and Prime Ministers from both parties, especially from Thatcher onwards, and not just Tory ones. However when I read these articles by John Crace(as suggested by Gordon), with their criticism cocooned in a veneer of sneering personal insults, it just turns me off completely. In my opinion such journalism is generally counterproductive although, no doubt, personally satisfying to some.

I didn't vote Tory at the last election by the way. In fact I've never voted Tory in my life.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Enki on May 22, 2020, 09:49:46 PM
My friend has just got out of hospital. Hurrah

Reading back, I've just come across this, NS.  Great news. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 22, 2020, 09:50:08 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52779356

Please, please let this mean he will be forced to resign.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 09:54:49 PM
My wife and I have clapped every Thursday. Our reasons are quite simple. In this extraordinary situation we feel we needed to come together to support all the frontline workers and especially the NHS workers in our small way. We also felt that these weekly claps were a unifying influence for people of all ages and hopefully strengthened the resolve of the whole community to be continually aware and observe the lockdown as much as possible. We do however accept that it is entirely appropriate that this response is starting to outlive its usefulness and probably needs to finish sometime soon.

My wife worked all her working life as a nurse in the NHS, one of our sons is a firefighter and one of our grandaughters works as a carer, but we all feel that at such an extraordinary time as this any criticisms we may have of the NHS(e.g. the Mid Staffordhire debacle, the NHS's almost indiscriminate wastage, the way Bevan bought the consultants' backing by 'stuffing their mouths with gold', the graduate entry only policy of the RCN or the horrendously expensive and failed National IT system, and many more) are not forgotten but put on the back burner because the human values of the selflessness, heroic dedication and bloody hard work of the key workers are the things that are uppermost in our minds at the moment.

Constructive criticism of the present government and how they are handling this crisis is certainly ok by us. We have plenty of criticisms ourselves, just as we had of all sorts of Health Ministers and Prime Ministers from both parties, especially from Thatcher onwards, and not just Tory ones. However when I read these articles by John Crace(as suggested by Gordon), with their criticism cocooned in a veneer of sneering personal insults, it just turns me off completely. In my opinion such journalism is generally counterproductive although, no doubt, personally satisfying to some.

I didn't vote Tory at the last election by the way. In fact I've never voted Tory in my life.
I really like your posts but there is a tone here where you suggest that your position is representative of this involved in the NHS and front line agree and that is just not true. I get bored of the idea that insults here based on incompetence, lying, and idiocy are bad. And I think the poisoning of the well by saying any such 'insults' are bad gives succour to that incompetence, lying and idiocy. Clap as much as you like but at least realise that you are being used.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 09:56:07 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52779356

Please, please let this mean he will be forced to resign.
He has parents? I always thought he was from the Mekon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 09:58:15 PM
Reading back, I've just come across this, NS.  Great news.
It is but for those eejits thinking Covid 19 isn't real, the current prognosis for her to be 'ok' is 12 months minimum.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 22, 2020, 10:02:17 PM
Well I'm quite happy for John Crace, or indeed anyone else for that matter, to sneer, lampoon, ridicule or whatever this particular Tory government since that is, for me, the only reasonable response to a crew consisting of Johnson, Raab, Patel et al: let us not forget that the madness of Brexit is down to them, and that clock is quietly ticking away in the background. My elder daughter, who is a nurse, holds a similar view.

They have no saving graces in my book. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2020, 11:15:11 PM
Of course

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/uk-pm-johnsons-close-aide-cummings-broke-lockdown-rules-newspapers/ar-BB14tsuH
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 22, 2020, 11:16:01 PM
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-scientist-quicker-exit-lockdown-072039855.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 23, 2020, 08:17:37 AM
Of course

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/uk-pm-johnsons-close-aide-cummings-broke-lockdown-rules-newspapers/ar-BB14tsuH

Not only should Cummings be sacked, he should be prosecuted for breaking the rules. >:( He could have put the lives of others in danger, presumably he would have had to stop at the service stations, once or twice, for toilet breaks and petrol.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on May 23, 2020, 08:26:15 AM
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-scientist-quicker-exit-lockdown-072039855.html

Given the preliminary antibody test results from across Europe, it seems highly unlikely that 50% of the UK contracted the virus. Even in Spain, one of the worst affected countries, results suggest that only about 5% had the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on May 23, 2020, 08:36:04 AM
I've been following the John's Hopkins data and have seen quite an increase in the UK numbers of cases and deaths.  Yesterday, I watched a PBS Frontline documentary on one Italian hospital and one of their doctors. It was very well done and showed how quickly they struggled with lack of capacity.  I wondered if you all there are experiencing anything like that.  We almost did in NYCity (I have one son who lives on Manhattan.) But, the governor there ordered temporary hospitals built, and they built quite a few!

On the Florida front, I was following the data out of our Department of Health, when I noticed a huge spike in the influenza/pneumonia deaths at the end of April (as the season usually is significantly ebbing.)  Right after that, the governor ordered that the pneumonia numbers be taken out of the tally.  That, and reports from hospitals and coroners that the governor is pressuring them to not report the numbers of COVID19 deaths has me concerned.  The deliberate deception seems criminal to me.

I don't know that much about the situation in the UK with regards to capacity, flu etc. In Finland the situation is good but then we had an advantage in that the virus arrived here a couple of weeks after many other parts of Europe. We've stayed well under capacity and deaths have remained low. At the start of all this, fearing the worst, all non-essential hospital procedures were cancelled. Now we have the problem that many hospital staff have no patients and are now trying to encourage people to see their doctors and go to hospital when they need to. A couple of hospitals built temporary structures, again fearing the worst, but in the end they were nowhere near being needed and have already been dismantled.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 23, 2020, 09:39:48 AM
Given the preliminary antibody test results from across Europe, it seems highly unlikely that 50% of the UK contracted the virus. Even in Spain, one of the worst affected countries, results suggest that only about 5% had the virus.
She is an eminent epidemiologist, albeit only one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 23, 2020, 09:57:04 AM
And the American beliefs on conspiracies

https://news.yahoo.com/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-shows-coronavirus-conspiracy-theories-spreading-on-the-right-may-hamper-vaccine-efforts-152843610.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 23, 2020, 10:11:52 AM
That I find your position tedious is not an insult.

It's insulting that you think it is a reasonable response to my point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 23, 2020, 10:18:35 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52779356

Please, please let this mean he will be forced to resign.

The number of people in power who are ostensibly quite intelligent but who have been caught breaking the government's own lockdown restrictions is quite astonishing.

Actually, in this case, he may technically not have broken the rules, but the optics are terrible even if he hasn't.

I doubt he'll resign though. He'll probably insist he didn't break the rules or it was essential travel or something.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 23, 2020, 10:23:57 AM
It is but for those eejits thinking Covid 19 isn't real, the current prognosis for her to be 'ok' is 12 months minimum.

Before you even start considering the lasting effects of COVID19, just being on a ventilator for any long period of time is quite debilitating. Add in the lasting effects of a serious COVID19 infection and the road to recovery is a long one. But at least we can be thankful it is not the alternative.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 23, 2020, 10:26:56 AM
Well I'm quite happy for John Crace, or indeed anyone else for that matter, to sneer, lampoon, ridicule or whatever this particular Tory government since that is, for me, the only reasonable response to a crew consisting of Johnson, Raab, Patel et al: let us not forget that the madness of Brexit is down to them, and that clock is quietly ticking away in the background. My elder daughter, who is a nurse, holds a similar view.

They have no saving graces in my book.

It's not a reasonable response at all. It turns people off who might otherwise have some sympathy for his position. And even if you think it's OK to sneer at Boris because he is a politician and he went into this with his eyes open, it's not OK to sneer at his partner and his child.

It's a bit childish to be honest and we need some adults in the room at this time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 23, 2020, 10:32:07 AM
Given the preliminary antibody test results from across Europe, it seems highly unlikely that 50% of the UK contracted the virus. Even in Spain, one of the worst affected countries, results suggest that only about 5% had the virus.

The ONS survey doesn't support the 50% figure either. If, at any time in the first two weeks of May 0.25% of the population hd the virus, it seems totally impossible that 50% of the population has already had it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 23, 2020, 10:42:36 AM
The number of people in power who are ostensibly quite intelligent but who have been caught breaking the government's own lockdown restrictions is quite astonishing.

Actually, in this case, he may technically not have broken the rules, but the optics are terrible even if he hasn't.

I doubt he'll resign though. He'll probably insist he didn't break the rules or it was essential travel or something.
I think he has technically broken the rules many times over by:

1. Failing to self isolate when having symptoms (and I may be wrong but I think having tested positive).
2. By making a non-essential journey (traveling to parents' house isn't an essential journey under the rules even if you might have child-care challenges).
3. Even if we accept the child-care argument - then he broke a further rule as both parents are over 70 and therefore in a vulnerable category and children should not be visiting them.

But there are two fairly obvious additional points. First if you are so unwell that you cannot look after your kids, how are you well enough to drive 300 miles to Durham. Secondly if it was essential for the children to be looked after by someone else, why couldn't they have been picked up and taken there by a friend or relative without symptoms.

This is clearly way worse than the Calderwood and Ferguson cases as neither of them had the virus, but they were both forced to resign having broken the rules. But as someone on another MB pointed out, Cummins will be OK because Boris works for him ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 23, 2020, 11:05:42 AM
Just seen this on the Guardian Live blog about Michael Rosen - I didn't realise he was ill, and it isn't clear if he had Coronavirus or not. Hopefully he'll recover and get back to his excellent 'Word of Mouth' Podcast (a must if you like words and their use in English).

Quote
In more upbeat news, the children’s author Michael Rosen has left intensive care after eight weeks in hospital, and continues his recovery on the ward.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 23, 2020, 12:42:04 PM
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-scientist-quicker-exit-lockdown-072039855.html

We discussed her study somewhere earlier in the thread as an alternative way of fitting the data at the time. The interview is certainly interesting but:

- When making decisions we need to use a precautionary approach. Without evidence confirming her model we can't rely on any predictions

- Where we have tried to collect evidence - based on antibody tests (which she discounts completely) or other surveys (eg. preliminary ONS stats) the results do not support the model.

- The cases where some timely lockdown did not occur - Wuhan itself, New York, North Italy and subsequent health system crises count against her. 

However:

In the Spanish flu pandemic the second wave turned out to be deadlier than the first wave due to a mutation of the virus. It is plausible that if the first strain had spread wider more people would have been resistant to the second. This virus is relatively stable, but there were about 40 different variations that entered the UK - seems unlikely that we could pin down the exact sequence of events.   

Also, both the flu and covid-19 are deadly because they can provoke a cytokine storm - and we still don't understand the immune system characteristics that result in it overreacting to that extent. There must be genetic or other factors involved - thus allowing for different  progress of the disease in different populations or countries or even people with different infection histories.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 23, 2020, 04:00:47 PM
'Hearing rumours that Dominic Cummings only travelled to see family in Durham because he'd been rejected by his family in Oxford and Cambridge.'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 23, 2020, 04:02:12 PM
'Hearing rumours that Dominic Cummings only travelled to see family in Durham because he'd been rejected by his family in Oxford and Cambridge.'

Where did you hear that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 23, 2020, 04:08:19 PM
Where did you hear that?

It's in the Twittersphere.

Or as I like to think of it the Twattersphere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 23, 2020, 04:16:36 PM
Where did you hear that?
It's a joke.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 23, 2020, 04:40:51 PM
It's a joke.

?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 23, 2020, 04:43:05 PM
?
Durham University students are known for being rejected by Oxford and Cambridge Universities
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 23, 2020, 04:48:12 PM
Durham University students are known for being rejected by Oxford and Cambridge Universities

I haven't heard that either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 23, 2020, 05:47:41 PM


Good article on Cummings in the Spectator

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-dominic-cummings-must-go?fbclid=IwAR1cAjSacSmwP2TbeSYt9It6KRlu1sEkfNkQiuWfm-ysLDLjWyKmbkvtAOc
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on May 23, 2020, 06:05:37 PM
I haven't heard that either.

You haven't heard it because it's not true. It stemmed from a joke!

NearlySane, can't see article without subscribing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 23, 2020, 06:09:23 PM
You haven't heard it because it's not true. It stemmed from a joke!

NearlySane, can't see article without subscribing.
You should be able to register to get a couple of free articles. It's a new article so there isn't a copy available elsewhere just yet. If I find one I will post.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 23, 2020, 06:50:08 PM
'Asking Johnson to sack Cummings is like asking Emu to sack Rod Hull'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 23, 2020, 09:30:29 PM
Seems he made the trip twice and while there, rather than staying locked down at his parents he took a trip to Barnard Castle, some 30 miles away. Surely he must be toast now - the PM and cabinet must be furious now as he's made them look like muppets as they all lined up to defend he through the day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 23, 2020, 09:44:36 PM
Seems he made the trip twice and while there, rather than staying locked down at his parents he took a trip to Barnard Castle, some 30 years ago. Surely he must be toast now - the PM and cabinet must be furious now as he's made them look like muppets as they all lined up to defend he through the day.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/23/new-witnesses-cast-doubt-on-dominic-cummingss-lockdown-claims?fbclid=IwAR0lSrL1r0VFLlznDjWoXLMR7kvN_0BvSiWMzcs-94NyVNu1CVN-5iAo0dA
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 24, 2020, 08:22:47 AM
I can't see Cummings staying in office much longer if the trip to the castle is verified.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 24, 2020, 08:57:31 AM
Cummings and goings.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 24, 2020, 09:06:42 AM
Cummings and goings.

 ;D I hope its goings.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 24, 2020, 10:00:18 AM
;D I hope its goings.
#dominicgoings is now a thing
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 24, 2020, 11:45:34 AM
 Song For Dominic Cummings


https://youtu.be/0na2Y_74_mk
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 24, 2020, 01:04:52 PM
And moving pandemic song


https://www.youtube.com/watchv=1f7owfqtnco
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 24, 2020, 01:54:27 PM
Seems he made the trip twice and while there, rather than staying locked down at his parents he took a trip to Barnard Castle, some 30 years ago. Surely he must be toast now - the PM and cabinet must be furious now as he's made them look like muppets as they all lined up to defend he through the day.

That they have come out to defend Cummings just further undermines the lockdown It's already clear that it was put in place too late, halfheartedly at that, now we see that the main ministers and officers responsible for implementing it did not really believe in the restrictions imposed. No wonder we have over 50,000 dead and wide spread in the North when it could have been confined to London and the South East.

I think the whole lot needs to go.

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 24, 2020, 05:13:50 PM
Anyone voting Tory after this latest support for lying hypocrisy from Johnson...I would say I have no words but I have so many many words
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 24, 2020, 06:15:18 PM
Johnson is an IDIOT to support Cummings, I hope comes back to bit him BIG TIME! >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 24, 2020, 06:17:52 PM
Johnson is an IDIOT to support Cummings, I hope comes back to bit him BIG TIME! >:(
Dominic Cummings definitely knows how many kids Boris Johnson has.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on May 24, 2020, 06:23:31 PM
Anyone voting Tory after this latest support for lying hypocrisy from Johnson...I would say I have no words but I have so many many words
   


He's not just hypocrite, but a lying hypocrite with no credibility...in other words, he'll go down as a great Tory PM.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 24, 2020, 06:26:48 PM
Tweet and presumably tweeter now gone

https://metro.co.uk/2020/05/24/uk-civil-service-account-tweets-about-arrogant-offensive-pm-12751992/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on May 24, 2020, 06:46:06 PM
That was a shock, to see a prime minister so cowardly and deceitful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 24, 2020, 06:47:34 PM
That was a shock, to see a prime minister so cowardly and deceitful.
Yep, amazing to see a lying incompetent  defend a liar
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 24, 2020, 06:48:44 PM
Interesting to note that here in Scotland we have our very own wee Tory blowhard, in Jackson Carlaw, who can normally be relied upon to sound off berating Nicola Sturgeon/the SNP at ever available imagined opportunity, has said nothing about this - the silence from him is deafening.

Mind you that is an improvement of sorts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 24, 2020, 06:52:43 PM
Interesting to note that here in Scotland we have our very own wee Tory blowhard, in Jackson Carlaw, who can normally be relied upon to sound off berating Nicola Sturgeon/the SNP at ever available imagined opportunity, has said nothing about this - the silence from him is deafening.

Mind you that is an improvement of sorts.
The silence from all of the Tories in Scotland has been. Other than a popon/popoff tweet from Davidson which ignored the issue - nothing for 2 days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 24, 2020, 07:30:42 PM
Tweet and presumably tweeter now gone

https://metro.co.uk/2020/05/24/uk-civil-service-account-tweets-about-arrogant-offensive-pm-12751992/
J K Rowling offers to pay the salary of whoever wrote this if they have been sacked
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 24, 2020, 08:27:29 PM
Currently on twitter Caroline Flack is trending because some people think that the challenge to Cummings is the same issue that caused Caroline Flack to commit suicide
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 24, 2020, 09:30:00 PM
The Guardian are reporting that a complaint has been made regarding the Barnard's Castle visit aspect, where the complainant has provided car registration details: if true then Boris the Liar's evasion of this on TV earlier could come back to haunt him.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/24/witness-complains-to-police-about-dominic-cummings-as-pressure-mounts
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on May 24, 2020, 09:33:58 PM
Interesting to note that here in Scotland we have our very own wee Tory blowhard, in Jackson Carlaw, who can normally be relied upon to sound off berating Nicola Sturgeon/the SNP at ever available imagined opportunity, has said nothing about this - the silence from him is deafening.

Mind you that is an improvement of sorts.
   



Yep. 'Car lot' was first off the mark when calling - rightly - for the Scottish CMO's resignation...his silence speaks volumes as to his integrity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 25, 2020, 08:25:14 AM
The Guardian are reporting that a complaint has been made regarding the Barnard's Castle visit aspect, where the complainant has provided car registration details: if true then Boris the Liar's evasion of this on TV earlier could come back to haunt him.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/24/witness-complains-to-police-about-dominic-cummings-as-pressure-mounts

If the Police have the evidence they require Cumming should be prosecuted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 25, 2020, 08:43:41 AM
If the Police have the evidence they require Cumming should be prosecuted.

But... what if their instincts tell them they'd be better off burying it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 25, 2020, 09:04:17 AM
But... what if their instincts tell them they'd be better off burying it?
Bit late for that - it's out in the open.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 25, 2020, 09:15:19 AM
But... what if their instincts tell them they'd be better off burying it?

It has been resurrected, burial is not an option.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on May 25, 2020, 10:08:27 AM
I have a neighbour who actually views Sturgeon as the nearest thing in the UK we have to a national leader.
Most English voters of course plumped for Billy Bunter incarnate, a man after their own hearts...incompetent, upbigging, bullshitting and no neck.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on May 25, 2020, 12:26:23 PM
After not only not condemning but commending Cummings, where does a mind like Johnson's go next?
I should imagine going even further to illustrate the difference between the ruled and the ruling.

So expect jailings for those whose reports of Cummings whereabouts 'fail' to be corroborated and a knighthood for Cummings.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on May 25, 2020, 12:36:17 PM
That won't happen but I think he has been made into a hate figure by the media & I don't subscribe to that. I'm sick of seeing his name everywhere now and wonder what more important things that obscures.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 25, 2020, 01:11:50 PM
Quite extraordinary


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52798632
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 25, 2020, 01:17:05 PM
That won't happen but I think he has been made into a hate figure by the media & I don't subscribe to that. I'm sick of seeing his name everywhere now and wonder what more important things that obscures.
I don't hate him but I do hate that his actions have pissed upon those who obeyed lockdown and lost loved ones that they couldn't see to Covid 19. You worried elsewhere that we would not come out of this kinder, which I do doubt as well,but in part that will have been because of this blatant breach of the rules by someone who didn't think the rules applied.  That in itself is why this is very important.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 25, 2020, 01:32:30 PM
That won't happen but I think he has been made into a hate figure by the media & I don't subscribe to that. I'm sick of seeing his name everywhere now and wonder what more important things that obscures.

Cumming's actions should be condemned in the strongest possible terms, and so should the PM for supporting him. Cummings must do the decent thing and resign.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 25, 2020, 01:41:32 PM
Seems coincidentally close to 2 weeks after the last bank holiday. 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/breaking-hospital-stops-accepting-new-22081378.amp?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar&__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 25, 2020, 01:42:02 PM
Cumming's actions should be condemned in the strongest possible terms, and so should the PM for supporting him. Cummings must do the decent thing and resign.
I find the excuses being trotted out astonishing - effectively that the self isolation rules apply, unless you don't want them to be.

I understand the issue of child-care. But firstly thousands of other people struggled and managed without driving 260 miles. But secondly, surely making a hugely risky drive of that nature would have to be the very, very last option only once every other option that did not involve Cummings and/or his wife (the details aren't clear on who did or did not have symptoms) leaving the house as self isolation means you do not leave the house for any reason and you distance yourself from others in the house.

So were they both so ill that they feared from the safety of their child - clearly not as they drove 260 miles.

Did they not have a network close by in London to help them out. Yes they did - I gather several relatives live in London, including I think her brother who was a friend of Cummings and introduced them.

Does he not have friends and neighbours able to help - surely he or she does.

As a senior member of the government, and her a leading journalist could they not have gained help through those channels - of course they could.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 25, 2020, 01:46:40 PM
I find the excuses being trotted out astonishing - effectively that the self isolation rules apply, unless you don't want them to be.

I understand the issue of child-care. But firstly thousands of other people struggled and managed without driving 260 miles. But secondly, surely making a hugely risky drive of that nature would have to be the very, very last option only once every other option that did not involve Cummings and/or his wife (the details aren't clear on who did or did not have symptoms) leaving the house as self isolation means you do not leave the house for any reason and you distance yourself from others in the house.

So were they both so ill that they feared from the safety of their child - clearly not as they drove 260 miles.

Did they not have a network close by in London to help them out. Yes they did - I gather several relatives live in London, including I think her brother who was a friend of Cummings and introduced them.

Does he not have friends and neighbours able to help - surely he or she does.

As a senior member of the government, and her a leading journalist could they not have gained help through those channels - of course they could.

I agree the fact they managed to drive all that way proves they were not that poorly and were capable to looking after their child. They have absolutely no excuse for their behaviour, especially if they stopped off at services stations on their way up there for toilets breaks, petrol, etc. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 25, 2020, 03:29:34 PM

Great lockdown location

https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Attraction_Review-g190814-d2048791-Reviews-Barnard_Castle-Barnard_Castle_County_Durham_England.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 25, 2020, 04:50:17 PM
Be back soon, just going for a 30 mile drive to test my eyesight.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 25, 2020, 05:10:18 PM
Be back soon, just going for a 30 mile drive to test my eyesight.

Needless to say you're making that up.

He went for a drive to check if he would be fit enough to do the longer drive back to London. He didn't say his eyesight was still affected at the time. Having said that, it was still pretty questionable: if you think you might not be fit enough for a drive, you're not fit enough for a drive.

Other than that, I won't condemn him for this episode because I probably would have done the same thing in the same situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 25, 2020, 05:15:20 PM
Needless to say you're making that up.

He went for a drive to check if he would be fit enough to do the longer drive back to London. He didn't say his eyesight was still affected at the time. Having said that, it was still pretty questionable: if you think you might not be fit enough for a drive, you're not fit enough for a drive.

Other than that, I won't condemn him for this episode because I probably would have done the same thing in the same situation.
Would you have taken your 4 year old with you? Would you have broken lockdown at the other end when you said you felt sick? Would have allowed your boss to lie about you not having been in Barnard Castle?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 25, 2020, 05:18:21 PM
His excuses were pathetic! >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 25, 2020, 05:44:31 PM
The claim about going for a drive to Barnard's Castle to check he was fit to drive is odd. If you were testing your general fitness to drive a longer distance on the following day but were otherwise well then that might work - but not if you reported eyesight issues since then you'd be putting other road users at risk, and in that situation why on earth would you take a child on your test drive!

I see from the tweets shown on the BBC that the Tories are already falling over themselves to defend his statement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 25, 2020, 05:48:55 PM
Would you have taken your 4 year old with you? Would you have broken lockdown at the other end when you said you felt sick? Would have allowed your boss to lie about you not having been in Barnard Castle?

The ins and outs of his personal conduct are not really the most important problems. The problems are:

1. The lock down message has been completely undermined.

2. The PM doesn't have the sense or intelligence to have fired him immediately or even when the story broke.

3. When Johnson was himself self-isolating and later in hospital there was no-one effectively performing his duties/role.

   

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 25, 2020, 05:56:49 PM
I see a comment elsewhere to the effect that 'Teflon' is to be renamed 'Cummings' - since nothing sticks to it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on May 25, 2020, 06:00:24 PM
I think he will get some sympathy, and this will save him.  But some of it is hilarious, e.g., the test drive.  But it seems to weaken the regulations, since I have some scope for interpretation.   A big plus for him is how boring it was.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 25, 2020, 06:33:15 PM
Even if Cummings survives after today surely Johnson has been weakened by this, in that Johnson's assurance last night that he was happy with Cummings' account wasn't enough.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 25, 2020, 06:37:33 PM
I reckon Cummings will continue to be the centre of press attention until he does the decent thing and resigns.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 25, 2020, 06:45:05 PM
I think it will be more about the public reaction and polling. If the approval rating dips significantly, then I think he will go. If it doesn't then he will survive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 25, 2020, 06:57:58 PM
Good piece - don't  agree with all of it


https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2020/05/dominic-cummings-admits-breaking-lockdown-rules-what-happens-now
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 25, 2020, 08:54:22 PM
He went for a drive to check if he would be fit enough to do the longer drive back to London. He didn't say his eyesight was still affected at the time.
Yes he did:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52793960
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on May 25, 2020, 09:07:14 PM
Just read what that Cummings said in that press conference. Never heard so much bullshit in all my life.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 26, 2020, 01:08:41 AM
Yes he did:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52793960
I thought he said his wife was concerned that his eyesight had been bad while he had been ill and she had no idea if it would affect his driving now so he drove for half an hour to check if he could see properly while he drove. I have no idea if he is telling the truth or not - I am not sure how else you would check if your vision was affected while driving without driving for a distance but it seems suspect that he went to a local beauty spot by accident. I think it was wrong that he and his wife and son would get out of the car and sit by the river during lockdown instead of going straight back to their cottage - he should have realised how bad that would look if the public became aware of it. 

I get that he has a 4 year old child and that during the 14 day isolation period people were permitted to go outside in their gardens, so I can understand why he went for walks in the nearby woods on his parents' private land with his wife and child. But after the 14 day isolation period, any outdoor 1 hour exercise was supposed to be close by, not a 30 minute drive away so I do not consider that as reasonable.

I can understand his reason for driving to his parents' farm - in this age of increased reports of sexual abuse of children I would not trust any old neighbour or friend with my 4 year old if my children were that young, especially if I thought there was a chance that both parents might be incapacitated for a long time or die. I would want my 4 year-old to be with close family such as a trusted sister and nieces on private land with big gates that could keep out Press intrusion.

The Government guidance said you can leave home to care for someone vulnerable during lockdown - and a 4 year old child is someone vulnerable that needs protection and if adequate protection was a 256 mile drive away, I would do the drive. I would put my 4 year old's interests ahead of the public's perceptions and I would not feel responsible for other people not obeying lock down rules because of their perception of my reasons for driving to protect my child. The Government guidelines require us to use our judgement when caring for vulnerable people so I would follow the guidelines by using my judgement and put the interests of the vulnerable person I had a parental duty to protect ahead of the public reaction to my decisions.

My husband and I left home during lockdown and drove to his mother's house every day to be with her as she all alone and was dying from vascular dementia, bed-ridden, sleeping for most of the day and night, unable to eat or drink and her primary carer had been suddenly admitted to hospital with pancreatitis.   

I am not buying the argument that Cummings should not have taken the option available to him to protect his son (away from Press intrusion if he or his wife were admitted to hospital or died) simply because there were single mothers in similar situations as him who did not have the option of driving to a cottage on private land to isolate near their sister and helpful nieces who would care for their vulnerable child if necessary.

And one of the other questions asked by a reporter at the Press conference was equally meaningless - the reporter said other children had been denied cancer treatment due to lockdown so why should the Cummings offspring merit any special treatment by being cared for when vulnerable. The Cummings child did not have cancer and receive treatment for it so not seeing the special treatment referred to in the question. If other parents had been prevented from driving long-distance to a trusted sibling. niece to care for a young child in case both parents succumbed to a potentially life-threatening illness, the reporter might have had a point.

Of course we do not know if the details in the Cummings story are accurate, but in the absence of evidence to the contrary I do not see that what he did was unreasonable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 26, 2020, 08:26:05 AM
Quote
thought he said his wife was concerned that his eyesight had been bad while he had been ill and she had no idea if it would affect his driving now so he drove for half an hour to check if he could see properly while he drove. I have no idea if he is telling the truth or not - I am not sure how else you would check if your vision was affected while driving without driving for a distance but it seems suspect that he went to a local beauty spot by accident. I think it was wrong that he and his wife and son would get out of the car and sit by the river during lockdown instead of going straight back to their cottage - he should have realised how bad that would look if the public became aware of it.

Simple question, partly because the implicit sexism in this story worries me, but why didn't she drive back to London?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 26, 2020, 08:57:15 AM
Simple question, partly because the implicit sexism in this story worries me, but why didn't she drive back to London?

Can she drive?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 26, 2020, 08:59:06 AM
Can she drive?

Well she wrote an article in The Spectator saying that she could. But that could, of course, like so much of her journalism, have been fiction  ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on May 26, 2020, 09:12:28 AM
I thought he said his wife was concerned that his eyesight had been bad while he had been ill and she had no idea if it would affect his driving now so he drove for half an hour to check if he could see properly while he drove. I have no idea if he is telling the truth or not - I am not sure how else you would check if your vision was affected while driving without driving for a distance but it seems suspect that he went to a local beauty spot by accident. I think it was wrong that he and his wife and son would get out of the car and sit by the river during lockdown instead of going straight back to their cottage - he should have realised how bad that would look if the public became aware of it. 

I get that he has a 4 year old child and that during the 14 day isolation period people were permitted to go outside in their gardens, so I can understand why he went for walks in the nearby woods on his parents' private land with his wife and child. But after the 14 day isolation period, any outdoor 1 hour exercise was supposed to be close by, not a 30 minute drive away so I do not consider that as reasonable.

I can understand his reason for driving to his parents' farm - in this age of increased reports of sexual abuse of children I would not trust any old neighbour or friend with my 4 year old if my children were that young, especially if I thought there was a chance that both parents might be incapacitated for a long time or die. I would want my 4 year-old to be with close family such as a trusted sister and nieces on private land with big gates that could keep out Press intrusion.

The Government guidance said you can leave home to care for someone vulnerable during lockdown - and a 4 year old child is someone vulnerable that needs protection and if adequate protection was a 256 mile drive away, I would do the drive. I would put my 4 year old's interests ahead of the public's perceptions and I would not feel responsible for other people not obeying lock down rules because of their perception of my reasons for driving to protect my child. The Government guidelines require us to use our judgement when caring for vulnerable people so I would follow the guidelines by using my judgement and put the interests of the vulnerable person I had a parental duty to protect ahead of the public reaction to my decisions.

My husband and I left home during lockdown and drove to his mother's house every day to be with her as she all alone and was dying from vascular dementia, bed-ridden, sleeping for most of the day and night, unable to eat or drink and her primary carer had been suddenly admitted to hospital with pancreatitis.   

I am not buying the argument that Cummings should not have taken the option available to him to protect his son (away from Press intrusion if he or his wife were admitted to hospital or died) simply because there were single mothers in similar situations as him who did not have the option of driving to a cottage on private land to isolate near their sister and helpful nieces who would care for their vulnerable child if necessary.

And one of the other questions asked by a reporter at the Press conference was equally meaningless - the reporter said other children had been denied cancer treatment due to lockdown so why should the Cummings offspring merit any special treatment by being cared for when vulnerable. The Cummings child did not have cancer and receive treatment for it so not seeing the special treatment referred to in the question. If other parents had been prevented from driving long-distance to a trusted sibling. niece to care for a young child in case both parents succumbed to a potentially life-threatening illness, the reporter might have had a point.

Of course we do not know if the details in the Cummings story are accurate, but in the absence of evidence to the contrary I do not see that what he did was unreasonable.
A superb post, Gabriella, well considered, thoughtful , rational etc. Excellent.

I listened to three hours of Stephen Nolan on FiveLive the other day and to Cummings yesterday. It's a pity there has not been a more calm approach from the moaning phoners-in, 'let's-drag-them-all-down' reporters etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on May 26, 2020, 09:19:02 AM
But do you trust this government to carry out contact tracing, and so on?    It seems to me that the regulations are being watered down.   Good luck to everybody.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 26, 2020, 09:37:40 AM
The real question in my mind is however that both The Guardian and The Mirror have tried for several weeks to get a response from Downing Street and have been stonewalled.

This really begs a question about how astute Mr Cummings actually is, people keep comparing him to Rasputin, he looks a lot more like Frank Spencer to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 26, 2020, 09:41:17 AM
Quote
It's a pity there has not been a more calm approach from the moaning phoners-in, 'let's-drag-them-all-down' reporters etc.

Yes, people criticising Cummings' actions, because they haven't been allowed to visit their dying relatives are all just "moaning phoners-in".

I know you will say it's not equivalent.

And you are right it isn't, nobody died in the Cummings household.

At least try to show some empathy for how others are feeling and how his unwise actions make them feel.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 26, 2020, 10:01:54 AM
I thought he said his wife was concerned that his eyesight had been bad while he had been ill and she had no idea if it would affect his driving now so he drove for half an hour to check if he could see properly while he drove. I have no idea if he is telling the truth or not - I am not sure how else you would check if your vision was affected while driving without driving for a distance but it seems suspect that he went to a local beauty spot by accident. I think it was wrong that he and his wife and son would get out of the car and sit by the river during lockdown instead of going straight back to their cottage - he should have realised how bad that would look if the public became aware of it. 

I get that he has a 4 year old child and that during the 14 day isolation period people were permitted to go outside in their gardens, so I can understand why he went for walks in the nearby woods on his parents' private land with his wife and child. But after the 14 day isolation period, any outdoor 1 hour exercise was supposed to be close by, not a 30 minute drive away so I do not consider that as reasonable.

I can understand his reason for driving to his parents' farm - in this age of increased reports of sexual abuse of children I would not trust any old neighbour or friend with my 4 year old if my children were that young, especially if I thought there was a chance that both parents might be incapacitated for a long time or die. I would want my 4 year-old to be with close family such as a trusted sister and nieces on private land with big gates that could keep out Press intrusion.

The Government guidance said you can leave home to care for someone vulnerable during lockdown - and a 4 year old child is someone vulnerable that needs protection and if adequate protection was a 256 mile drive away, I would do the drive. I would put my 4 year old's interests ahead of the public's perceptions and I would not feel responsible for other people not obeying lock down rules because of their perception of my reasons for driving to protect my child. The Government guidelines require us to use our judgement when caring for vulnerable people so I would follow the guidelines by using my judgement and put the interests of the vulnerable person I had a parental duty to protect ahead of the public reaction to my decisions.

My husband and I left home during lockdown and drove to his mother's house every day to be with her as she all alone and was dying from vascular dementia, bed-ridden, sleeping for most of the day and night, unable to eat or drink and her primary carer had been suddenly admitted to hospital with pancreatitis.   

I am not buying the argument that Cummings should not have taken the option available to him to protect his son (away from Press intrusion if he or his wife were admitted to hospital or died) simply because there were single mothers in similar situations as him who did not have the option of driving to a cottage on private land to isolate near their sister and helpful nieces who would care for their vulnerable child if necessary.

And one of the other questions asked by a reporter at the Press conference was equally meaningless - the reporter said other children had been denied cancer treatment due to lockdown so why should the Cummings offspring merit any special treatment by being cared for when vulnerable. The Cummings child did not have cancer and receive treatment for it so not seeing the special treatment referred to in the question. If other parents had been prevented from driving long-distance to a trusted sibling. niece to care for a young child in case both parents succumbed to a potentially life-threatening illness, the reporter might have had a point.

Of course we do not know if the details in the Cummings story are accurate, but in the absence of evidence to the contrary I do not see that what he did was unreasonable.
Anyone who believes Cummings's load of crapola is taking gullibility to a whole new level. He didn't know if his eyesight was good enough to drive safely, so he went for a drive to find out?!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 26, 2020, 10:02:34 AM
And, of course, it was pure coincidence that the day they went to Barnard Castle 12th April, ostensibly to test eyesight  ::) , was Mary Wakefield's birthday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 26, 2020, 10:09:43 AM
As far as I can see Cummings' attitude can be summed up as 'me, me, me': but then he is supporting a noted Tory liar whose primary concern is also 'me, me, me'. One hopes that the poor saps in parts of England who deserted Labour for this shower (and Brexit) are beginning to wonder what on earth they have done.

Perhaps, he says hopefully, in the fullness of time this episode will be a small contribution that aids in the breakup of the (dis)United Kingdom.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 26, 2020, 10:10:12 AM
Junior minister resigns:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52806086
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 26, 2020, 10:16:44 AM
Good for him, I hope many more resign.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on May 26, 2020, 10:17:40 AM
Anyone who believes Cummings's load of crapola is taking gullibility to a whole new level. He didn't know if his eyesight was good enough to drive safely, so he went for a drive to find out?!

And with his family in the car, potentially putting them at risk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 26, 2020, 10:25:38 AM
From Face book:

*Public Statement regarding Berkhamsted Castle from Peter White, Town Councillor*
There has been discussion in the media regarding visits to castles during the CoronaVirus lockdown.
While I cannot speak for all Berkhamsted Town Council, I wish to make it clear that Berkhamsted Castle is not a suitable destination for eye tests, with or without motor assistance.
If you are having problems with your vision, please seek advice from a medical professional, and do not drive to Berkhamsted Castle as part of your assessment process.
Please do share this statement with members of the public who may be unsure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 26, 2020, 10:26:34 AM
Latest poll makes grim reading.


https://savanta.com/coronavirus-data-tracker/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 26, 2020, 10:29:16 AM
Simple question, partly because the implicit sexism in this story worries me, but why didn't she drive back to London?
If I was his wife I would have said "screw your job Dom, it's not that important that I would drive all the way to London for you to go back to work, plus your boss is a tit."

But I don't believe the journey to a pretty Castle was to test his eyes - it sounds bogus to me.

And for all we know she may have driven part of the way but I think it's reasonable that she would not have been up for driving 256 miles to London. I wouldn't be - I could do it if I had to but would find a reason to not have to. I told my daughter that I wouldn't drive more than 150 miles from London to get her if she got ill at university so she better pick a university within 150 miles of London. My husband on the other hand is more than happy to drive all the way to Scotland and would consider it an enjoyable way to spend 7 hours.

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 26, 2020, 10:58:57 AM
A superb post, Gabriella, well considered, thoughtful , rational etc. Excellent.

I listened to three hours of Stephen Nolan on FiveLive the other day and to Cummings yesterday. It's a pity there has not been a more calm approach from the moaning phoners-in, 'let's-drag-them-all-down' reporters etc.
Thanks Susan. Yes I found the questions from some of the reporters at the Press conference very rehearsed and seemed to have no bearing on the actual statement made by Cummings. The reporters would have been better off finding some evidence to back up their allegations of Cummings breaking the lock down rules. I would have focused on the jolly to the Castle, as the drive to Durham seems to be within the published Government guidance if the reason Cummings went there was that it was the best way to care for a vulnerable 4 year old while putting the least number of people at risk of getting very sick from Covid-19 caught from said 4 year-old. I would agree with the assessment that a 17 year old and 20 year old were at less risk of getting very sick compared to a neighbour or relative or friend of a similar age to Cummings.

Reporter: The British public want an apology /resignation because you broke the lockdown rules because you consider yourself special

Dom: No I didn't - the guidance allows exceptions to the "stay at home" rule if you left to care for a vulnerable person such as a 4 year old child

Reporter: That's a loophole you have found. And other people don't have the privilege of having parents with cottages on private land so you shouldn't be able to avail yourself of any option that the rest of the public do not have access to, if you are claiming we are all in this together. Think of the single mothers and the cancer patients denied treatment so show some solidarity and put your son at risk too"

Dom: Eh no thanks - I'm a parent so won't risk dumping my 4 year old with the nearest neighbour, plus the 4 year old could get sick/   be a carrier of Covid-19 and could make my neighbour very sick. The exception is there in the published government guidance for the public to avail themselves of it if the public think it necessary, because the government always thought caring for a vulnerable person is more important than staying at home during lockdown.

Reporter: You have suddenly introduced the idea that people can use their own judgement

Dom: Um no - it was always in the published government guidance to use your judgement in exceptional cases such as caring for a vulnerable person

Reporter: The public are angry because they haven't seen their relatives and you have so you should apologise and resign

Dom: I wasn't in Durham to visit my parents - I was there to isolate myself for 14 days while also protecting my vulnerable 4 year old child in the event that my wife and I both got too sick to care for him and did not want to dump him on random neighbours, plus I did not want to infect said random neighbour by asking them to care for my 4 year-old...….Plus my neighbours hate me and my boss - because I am a slimy individual with questionable politics and  my boss is a tit. (Okay he didn't say that last part)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on May 26, 2020, 11:33:02 AM
Thanks Susan. Yes I found the questions from some of the reporters at the Press conference very rehearsed and seemed to have no bearing on the actual statement made by Cummings. The reporters would have been better off finding some evidence to back up their allegations of Cummings breaking the lock down rules. I would have focused on the jolly to the Castle, as the drive to Durham seems to be within the published Government guidance if the reason Cummings went there was that it was the best way to care for a vulnerable 4 year old while putting the least number of people at risk of getting very sick from Covid-19 caught from said 4 year-old. I would agree with the assessment that a 17 year old and 20 year old were at less risk of getting very sick compared to a neighbour or relative or friend of a similar age to Cummings.

Reporter: The British public want an apology /resignation because you broke the lockdown rules because you consider yourself special

Dom: No I didn't - the guidance allows exceptions to the "stay at home" rule if you left to care for a vulnerable person such as a 4 year old child

Reporter: That's a loophole you have found. And other people don't have the privilege of having parents with cottages on private land so you shouldn't be able to avail yourself of any option that the rest of the public do not have access to, if you are claiming we are all in this together. Think of the single mothers and the cancer patients denied treatment so show some solidarity and put your son at risk too"

Dom: Eh no thanks - I'm a parent so won't risk dumping my 4 year old with the nearest neighbour, plus the 4 year old could get sick/   be a carrier of Covid-19 and could make my neighbour very sick. The exception is there in the published government guidance for the public to avail themselves of it if the public think it necessary, because the government always thought caring for a vulnerable person is more important than staying at home during lockdown.

Reporter: You have suddenly introduced the idea that people can use their own judgement

Dom: Um no - it was always in the published government guidance to use your judgement in exceptional cases such as caring for a vulnerable person

Reporter: The public are angry because they haven't seen their relatives and you have so you should apologise and resign

Dom: I wasn't in Durham to visit my parents - I was there to isolate myself for 14 days while also protecting my vulnerable 4 year old child in the event that my wife and I both got too sick to care for him and did not want to dump him on random neighbours, plus I did not want to infect said random neighbour by asking them to care for my 4 year-old...….Plus my neighbours hate me and my boss - because I am a slimy individual with questionable politics and  my boss is a tit. (Okay he didn't say that last part)
Mention was made by the Cummings that the law here was not completely comprehensive and to me suggested that he was formulating his defence within that.
That means he was looking for loopholes either before and/or during the events or in formulating his story.
interpretation
The other point here is that the law is unlikely to have been tested nor his interpretation.
If he himself claims to know this law so well then that because he had a hand in its formulation. If so then he is responsible in part for making an effectively ineffective law with giant loopholes in it.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 26, 2020, 12:01:48 PM
The Government guidance said you can leave home to care for someone vulnerable during lockdown - and a 4 year old child is someone vulnerable ...
In due course I comment in more detail on your lengthy post as it contains numerous inaccuracies. But this one I can mail straight away.

A 4 year old child is most definitely NOT considered to be vulnerable in the context of child protection or COVID-19 simply because the are a 4 year old child. They would only be considered vulnerable were that child to have certain underlying health conditions or where there were specific safeguarding concerns - as far as I'm aware neither of those apply to Cummings son.

As you may or may not know I am the owner of a nursery - and when we were required to close we were allowed to remain open for the children of key workers unable to look after their children and children legally defined as vulnerable. We have about 30 4 year olds on our books - not a single one is classified as vulnerable in the legal context which is what would apply in terms of justification of breaking lock-down/self isolation.

The government has provided guidance on who is, and is not, considered vulnerable in cover-19 terms - it does not include 4 year old children.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 26, 2020, 12:08:15 PM
Latest poll makes grim reading.


https://savanta.com/coronavirus-data-tracker/
Grim reading for the government; bloody wonderful reading for decent people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 26, 2020, 12:23:28 PM
In due course I comment in more detail on your lengthy post as it contains numerous inaccuracies. But this one I can mail straight away.

A 4 year old child is most definitely NOT considered to be vulnerable in the context of child protection or COVID-19 simply because the are a 4 year old child. They would only be considered vulnerable were that child to have certain underlying health conditions or where there were specific safeguarding concerns - as far as I'm aware neither of those apply to Cummings son.

As you may or may not know I am the owner of a nursery - and when we were required to close we were allowed to remain open for the children of key workers unable to look after their children and children legally defined as vulnerable. We have about 30 4 year olds on our books - not a single one is classified as vulnerable in the legal context which is what would apply in terms of justification of breaking loach-down/self isolation.

The government has provided guidance on who is, and is not, considered vulnerable in cover-19 terms - it does not include 4 year old children.
I did not mean "vulnerable" in terms of more at risk of getting very ill from Covid-19. I meant vulnerable as in at risk of being physically harmed and needing looking after because their age meant they cannot look after themselves or protect themselves from harm. In this context, anyone with an ounce of common sense would consider a 4 year old child as being vulnerable if both parents were too ill to care for him - though they are not vulnerable in Covid-19 terms of "at higher risk of severe illness"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52784152

ETA: The day after lockdown began, 24 March, the deputy chief medical officer for England, Dr Jenny Harries, clarified who could look after a child if both parents or carers were incapacitated.
She said: "Clearly if you have adults who are unable to look after a small child, that is an exceptional circumstance.
"And if the individuals do not have access to care support - formal care support - or to family, they will be able to work through their local authority hubs."

Any of the government lockdown guidance can be overruled by safeguarding concerns, or prevention of harm, Dr Harries said at Saturday's briefing.
She used the examples of an elderly person with no supply of medication, or a child with both parents too unwell to provide medical care.
"Risk to life" would be a valid reason to break lockdown rules, Dr Harries said.
When Dominic Cummings decided to travel from London to Durham, to stay near his relatives for support, only his wife was displaying coronavirus symptoms. So, he could have cared for their child himself.
But Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said at Saturday's briefing that the welfare of a four-year-old child was the main thing. He said Mr Cummings' actions had prevented the child from being without any support, should things have become worse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on May 26, 2020, 12:29:12 PM
I assume the Cummings approach means that I can interpret the rules as I see fit.  Thus, I have a relative who is suffering badly under lockdown.   This is an emergency, therefore I take her on a week's holiday, and she feels better.   Why not?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 26, 2020, 12:36:23 PM
The foreign press's view. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/25/cummings-is-the-real-boss-world-press-pours-scorn-on-boris-johnson?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1i5R87zufmRi2VZ584OBNjcXJHUOjfE1a1JyL7RKB0eDYnxlMenPHZlSc#Echobox=1590410906
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 26, 2020, 12:37:47 PM
I assume the Cummings approach means that I can interpret the rules as I see fit.  Thus, I have a relative who is suffering badly under lockdown.   This is an emergency, therefore I take her on a week's holiday, and she feels better.   Why not?

I think a lot of people may start to see it that way, if Cummings gets away with it. :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 26, 2020, 12:39:09 PM
I did not mean "vulnerable" in terms of more at risk of getting very ill from Covid-19. I meant vulnerable as in at risk of being physically harmed and needing looking after because their age meant they cannot look after themselves or protect themselves from harm. In this context, anyone with an ounce of common sense would consider a 4 year old child as being vulnerable if both parents were too ill to care for him - though they are not vulnerable in Covid-19 terms of "at higher risk of severe illness"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52784152

ETA: The day after lockdown began, 24 March, the deputy chief medical officer for England, Dr Jenny Harries, clarified who could look after a child if both parents or carers were incapacitated.
She said: "Clearly if you have adults who are unable to look after a small child, that is an exceptional circumstance.
"And if the individuals do not have access to care support - formal care support - or to family, they will be able to work through their local authority hubs."

Any of the government lockdown guidance can be overruled by safeguarding concerns, or prevention of harm, Dr Harries said at Saturday's briefing.
She used the examples of an elderly person with no supply of medication, or a child with both parents too unwell to provide medical care.
"Risk to life" would be a valid reason to break lockdown rules, Dr Harries said.
When Dominic Cummings decided to travel from London to Durham, to stay near his relatives for support, only his wife was displaying coronavirus symptoms. So, he could have cared for their child himself.
But Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said at Saturday's briefing that the welfare of a four-year-old child was the main thing. He said Mr Cummings' actions had prevented the child from being without any support, should things have become worse.

Still not getting the reasoning for the journey. They have other family in London and with his connections I am positive if necessary, perfectly safe arrangements could have been made for the child in London.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 26, 2020, 12:39:31 PM
Grim reading for the government; bloody wonderful reading for decent people.
There are problems though, the UK govt have a majority that means they can stay easily for the next 4 and a half years. In the mean time in the middle of a crisis people are likely going to be less inclined to follow the instructions on Covid 19 - this may lead to more people dying. It may be the beginning of the end of a Johnson govt but in 4 and half years they could do all sorts of damage under someone else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on May 26, 2020, 12:43:58 PM
Still not getting the reasoning for the journey. They have other family in London and with his connections I am positive if necessary, perfectly safe arrangements could have been made for the child in London.

I thought if he decides that this is an emergency, he has discretion over the rules.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on May 26, 2020, 12:44:49 PM
I assume the Cummings approach means that I can interpret the rules as I see fit.  Thus, I have a relative who is suffering badly under lockdown.   This is an emergency, therefore I take her on a week's holiday, and she feels better.   Why not?
The virus isn't paying any attention to how the rules of British politics are being played. The transient joy of a prick like the BBC's Ian Watson over Cummings political Houdiniary cuts no ice with biology.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on May 26, 2020, 12:49:36 PM
I thought if he decides that this is an emergency, he has discretion over the rules.
What discretion did people who had operations and treatment cancelled have? This is going to rumble on and on. The decay of lockdown and the premature opening of stuff is just going to compound everything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on May 26, 2020, 01:00:03 PM
What discretion did people who had operations and treatment cancelled have? This is going to rumble on and on. The decay of lockdown and the premature opening of stuff is just going to compound everything.

Well, yes, if it becomes a subjective interpretation of the rules, this could be dangerous, a kind of free for all.     I can say that I am following the rules as I see fit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on May 26, 2020, 01:06:58 PM
Well, yes, if it becomes a subjective interpretation of the rules, this could be dangerous, a kind of free for all.     I can say that I am following the rules as I see fit.
The trouble is that somewhere along the line the laws have to be tested. If the law isn't enforced and that results in death or injury then someone is usually liable. If the Government decides they weren't really laws after all, then there is a question of legal negligence, not only was the social contract broken by failure to act it was then trampled by the commission of a herd immunity policy and finally pissed on by a cunt in jeans sitting behind a camping table in a garden all laid on by the prime minister.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 26, 2020, 01:08:05 PM
I assume the Cummings approach means that I can interpret the rules as I see fit.  Thus, I have a relative who is suffering badly under lockdown.   This is an emergency, therefore I take her on a week's holiday, and she feels better.   Why not?
If the relative is a child that is in danger of harm if left on their own without parental care, and the only way available to you to safeguard the child while minimising the risk of infecting someone else is to leave the country, feel free to fly off on your private jet if that means that you will come into minimal contact with anyone on your journey.

The onus would be on you to justify your actions to the police, if you were requested to do so. If the police think Cummings has broken the lockdown rules they should take the appropriate action. What action are the police taking?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 26, 2020, 01:17:26 PM
I did not mean "vulnerable" in terms of more at risk of getting very ill from Covid-19. I meant vulnerable as in at risk of being physically harmed and needing looking after because their age meant they cannot look after themselves or protect themselves from harm. In this context, anyone with an ounce of common sense would consider a 4 year old child as being vulnerable if both parents were too ill to care for him - though they are not vulnerable in Covid-19 terms of "at higher risk of severe illness"
I'm sorry Gabriella - in terms of the rules on self isolation and lock down a 4 year old child is not classified as vulnerable. The rules on traveling to care for a vulnerable person do not apply on two grounds - first because the child is not considered to be a vulnerable person under those rules and secondly because the Cummings' family were in self isolation not lock down - and of course the notion of someone in self isolation (i.e. with symptoms or in the same household as someone with symptoms) traveling to look after a vulnerable person is clearly a non starter and should never happen as by definition someone self isolating must never take an action that brings them into contact with a vulnerable person.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 26, 2020, 01:19:09 PM
Still not getting the reasoning for the journey. They have other family in London and with his connections I am positive if necessary, perfectly safe arrangements could have been made for the child in London.
I do not have sufficient information on their other family in London to know if the arrangements for the child would be safe.

I wouldn't trust my brother to care for my children when they were 4 and I would not want to put him at risk as I think he has a somewhat compromised immune system due to treatment he was having for psoriasis  - ok I could be certain that he would not abuse them but would I think he was the best person to make judgements on the health and well-being of my children should my husband and I wind up in hospital potentially dying of Covid-19 - no I don't think he is responsible enough and if I had a much better option 256 miles away that was less likely to become seriously ill if they caught Covid-19 from my 4 year old I would take that option for my 4 year-old. I would make that decision using a mix of emotion and reasoning. As a human being, I would be unable to prevent emotion being an influence on my decision when it came to safeguarding my 4 year old child.

I don't have sufficient information on the availability of perfectly safe arrangements for the 4 year old due to Cummings' connections. How do you define "perfectly safe"?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on May 26, 2020, 01:22:06 PM
If the relative is a child that is in danger of harm if left on their own without parental care, and the only way available to you to safeguard the child while minimising the risk of infecting someone else is to leave the country, feel free to fly off on your private jet if that means that you will come into minimal contact with anyone on your journey.

The onus would be on you to justify your actions to the police, if you were requested to do so. If the police think Cummings has broken the lockdown rules they should take the appropriate action. What action are the police taking?

Well, that is your interpretation, but I have a different one.    It's as valid as yours under the rules Mk 2.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 26, 2020, 01:22:29 PM
I'm sorry Gabriella - in terms of the rules on self isolation and lock down a 4 year old child is not classified as vulnerable. The rules on traveling to care for a vulnerable person do not apply on two grounds - first because the child is not considered to be a vulnerable person under those rules and secondly because the Cummings' family were in self isolation not lock down - and of course the notion of someone in self isolation (i.e. with symptoms or in the same household as someone with symptoms) traveling to look after a vulnerable person is clearly a non starter and should never happen as by definition someone self isolating must never take an action that brings them into contact with a vulnerable person.
I'm sorry PD but I already explained that I did not use the word "vulnerable" in the way it is used in Covid-19 regulations. I used the word "vulnerable" in terms of the normal dictionary meaning of the word. I suggest you address that point rather than ignoring it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 26, 2020, 01:25:30 PM
Well, that is your interpretation, but I have a different one.    It's as valid as yours under the rules Mk 2.
Whether it is valid or not would be on you to justify - you may have to justify your interpretation to the police....or the Press.

That is generally how the world works - we form opinions, make decisions, and may be called on to justify them later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on May 26, 2020, 01:36:20 PM
Anyway, it was nice that they had a trip to Barnard Castle on her birthday.  What a gent!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 26, 2020, 01:42:07 PM
Quote
As a human being, I would be unable to prevent emotion being an influence on my decision when it came to safeguarding my 4 year old child

You mean like it is perfectly safe to undertake a 260 mile journey with an already sick wife and the fear that you are also sickening for an illness. That does not make sense to me. Stay at home. Call in help. If top government can't organise a bit of childcare for one of its own, then we really are stuffed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 26, 2020, 01:50:01 PM
I'm sorry PD but I already explained that I did not use the word "vulnerable" in the way it is used in Covid-19 regulations. I used the word "vulnerable" in terms of the normal dictionary meaning of the word. I suggest you address that point rather than ignoring it.
But in terms of whether Cummings broke the rule the definition of vulnerable in those rules is the only one that matters.

And in terms of the 'exceptional' circumstance of tow parents unable to look after a small child, then clearly the parents must also retain the principle of self-isolation - in other words not leave the property for 7/14 days. So unless it is impossible for the child to be looked after without the parent's leaving the house they must follow options that mean they can still self isolate. Cummings did not follow those options - so rather than using the 260 trip (which clearly broke self isolation rules) as a last option he seemed to take it as the first options. To note.

1. According to Cummings there never was a situation where their child wasn't able to be looked after by one or other parent - as he claimed neither they nor the child had any direct contact with the sister or parents. So the action was pre-emptive and unnecessary. Had they stayed in London they'd have been fine.

2. Why did they not look for solutions closer to home that did not require them to break self-isolation or massively reduce travel so, for example:

What about their normal child-care options. It beggars believe the a couple like Cummings and Wakefield (who will both work long hours etc) won't have extensive options in place. These could have been called upon if needed (they weren't of course - see 1).

What about family in London - it is widely reported that they both have family in London, including Wakefield's two brothers. Why was if better to drive 260 miles with symptoms rather than get close family living close by to help out if needed (it wasn't of course - see 1)

3. Under the rules on lock down and vulnerable people they should have got relative or friend without symptoms to come to them not the other way around. And of course with her brothers just a few miles away they could have come to stay in the house to look after the child (and would themselves be expected to self isolate or pick up the child). That is no different to what they did in terms of support for the child but avoided breaking self isolation rules and driving 260 miles with symptoms.

4. As a high level 'power couple' undoubtedly they could have tapped into a support network, including official support that did not require them to travel 260 mile and break self isolation rules

You will note too that the government put out specific guidance on whether you could choose where to self isolate (or even lock down) if you had a option of places. And the answer was absolutely clear - no - you had to self isolate where you were, you could not choose to travel to a second home (that's effectively what this was) or holiday let, another household etc etc - you have to remain in the same property for 7/14 days. Cummings did not do this - he clearly broke his own rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 26, 2020, 01:59:22 PM
You mean like it is perfectly safe to undertake a 260 mile journey with an already sick wife and the fear that you are also sickening for an illness. That does not make sense to me. Stay at home. Call in help. If top government can't organise a bit of childcare for one of its own, then we really are stuffed.
Cummings acknowledged that it was perfectly reasonable to disagree with the decision that he and his wife made. I believe he said his wife had thrown up but was not displaying the symptoms of the virus such as persistent continuous cough or temperature. Did he say that he had any symptoms at the time?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on May 26, 2020, 02:02:06 PM
Grim reading for the government; bloody wonderful reading for decent people.
Given that Government and Johnsons own polls have plummeted,I wonder if it will end up with Cummings advising the government that Johnson should resign?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 26, 2020, 02:05:41 PM
But in terms of whether Cummings broke the rule the definition of vulnerable in those rules is the only one that matters.

And in terms of the 'exceptional' circumstance of tow parents unable to look after a small child, then clearly the parents must also retain the principle of self-isolation - in other words not leave the property for 7/14 days. So unless it is impossible for the child to be looked after without the parent's leaving the house they must follow options that mean they can still self isolate. Cummings did not follow those options - so rather than using the 260 trip (which clearly broke self isolation rules) as a last option he seemed to take it as the first options. To note.
No that's not the guidance - it says "Keep following this advice to the best of your ability, however, we are aware that not all these measures will be possible.
What we have seen so far is that children with coronavirus (COVID-19) appear to be less severely affected. It is nevertheless important to do your best to follow this guidance."

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-stay-at-home-guidance/stay-at-home-guidance-for-households-with-possible-coronavirus-covid-19-infection

Quote

1. According to Cummings there never was a situation where their child wasn't able to be looked after by one or other parent - as he claimed neither they nor the child had any direct contact with the sister or parents. So the action was pre-emptive and unnecessary. Had they stayed in London they'd have been fine.

2. Why did they not look for solutions closer to home that did not require them to break self-isolation or massively reduce travel so, for example:

What about their normal child-care options. It beggars believe the a couple like Cummings and Wakefield (who will both work long hours etc) won't have extensive options in place. These could have been called upon if needed (they weren't of course - see 1).

What about family in London - it is widely reported that they both have family in London, including Wakefield's two brothers. Why was if better to drive 260 miles with symptoms rather than get close family living close by to help out if needed (it wasn't of course - see 1)

3. Under the rules on lock down and vulnerable people they should have got relative or friend without symptoms to come to them not the other way around. And of course with her brothers just a few miles away they could have come to stay in the house to look after the child (and would themselves be expected to self isolate or pick up the child). That is no different to what they did in terms of support for the child but avoided breaking self isolation rules and driving 260 miles with symptoms.

4. As a high level 'power couple' undoubtedly they could have tapped into a support network, including official support that did not require them to travel 260 mile and break self isolation rules

You will note too that the government put out specific guidance on whether you could choose where to self isolate (or even lock down) if you had a option of places. And the answer was absolutely clear - no - you had to self isolate where you were, you could not choose to travel to a second home (that's effectively what this was) or holiday let, another household etc etc - you have to remain in the same property for 7/14 days. Cummings did not do this - he clearly broke his own rules.
Clearly Cummings disagreed with your assessment of the situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on May 26, 2020, 02:09:57 PM
Given that Government and Johnsons own polls have plummeted,I wonder if it will end up with Cummings advising the government that Johnson should resign?

I suggest that Boris has a trip to Durham Castle, the air is bracing, most places are shut, so the virus has no hidey-holes, also close to Barnard Castle, ophthamologically of great repute.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 26, 2020, 02:20:52 PM
No that's not the guidance - it says "Keep following this advice to the best of your ability, however, we are aware that not all these measures will be possible.
What we have seen so far is that children with coronavirus (COVID-19) appear to be less severely affected. It is nevertheless important to do your best to follow this guidance."

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-stay-at-home-guidance/stay-at-home-guidance-for-households-with-possible-coronavirus-covid-19-infection
Which part of:

'However, if you have any of the symptoms above you should self-isolate at home.' and

'if you live with others and you are the first in the household to have symptoms of coronavirus (COVID-19), then you must stay at home for at least 7 days, but all other household members who remain well must stay at home and not leave the house for 14 days. The 14-day period starts from the day when the first person in the house became ill. See the explanatory diagram'

is consistent with driving 260 miles to Durham.

Cummins broke his own rules.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 26, 2020, 02:22:29 PM
Which part of:

'However, if you have any of the symptoms above you should self-isolate at home.' and

'if you live with others and you are the first in the household to have symptoms of coronavirus (COVID-19), then you must stay at home for at least 7 days, but all other household members who remain well must stay at home and not leave the house for 14 days. The 14-day period starts from the day when the first person in the house became ill. See the explanatory diagram'

is consistent with driving 260 miles to Durham.

Cummins broke his own rules.

Of course he did. >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on May 26, 2020, 02:27:16 PM
Thanks Susan. Yes I found the questions from some of the reporters at the Press conference very rehearsed and seemed to have no bearing on the actual statement made by Cummings. The reporters would have been better off finding some evidence to back up their allegations of Cummings breaking the lock down rules. I would have focused on the jolly to the Castle, as the drive to Durham seems to be within the published Government guidance if the reason Cummings went there was that it was the best way to care for a vulnerable 4 year old while putting the least number of people at risk of getting very sick from Covid-19 caught from said 4 year-old. I would agree with the assessment that a 17 year old and 20 year old were at less risk of getting very sick compared to a neighbour or relative or friend of a similar age to Cummings.

Reporter: The British public want an apology /resignation because you broke the lockdown rules because you consider yourself special

Dom: No I didn't - the guidance allows exceptions to the "stay at home" rule if you left to care for a vulnerable person such as a 4 year old child

Reporter: That's a loophole you have found. And other people don't have the privilege of having parents with cottages on private land so you shouldn't be able to avail yourself of any option that the rest of the public do not have access to, if you are claiming we are all in this together. Think of the single mothers and the cancer patients denied treatment so show some solidarity and put your son at risk too"

Dom: Eh no thanks - I'm a parent so won't risk dumping my 4 year old with the nearest neighbour, plus the 4 year old could get sick/   be a carrier of Covid-19 and could make my neighbour very sick. The exception is there in the published government guidance for the public to avail themselves of it if the public think it necessary, because the government always thought caring for a vulnerable person is more important than staying at home during lockdown.

Reporter: You have suddenly introduced the idea that people can use their own judgement

Dom: Um no - it was always in the published government guidance to use your judgement in exceptional cases such as caring for a vulnerable person

Reporter: The public are angry because they haven't seen their relatives and you have so you should apologise and resign

Dom: I wasn't in Durham to visit my parents - I was there to isolate myself for 14 days while also protecting my vulnerable 4 year old child in the event that my wife and I both got too sick to care for him and did not want to dump him on random neighbours, plus I did not want to infect said random neighbour by asking them to care for my 4 year-old...….Plus my neighbours hate me and my boss - because I am a slimy individual with questionable politics and  my boss is a tit. (Okay he didn't say that last part)

Again - well said indeed! And thank you for posting the text of that particular exchange. Yes, I think Cummings replied sensibly and well.
********
This morning the Age Concern lady who has been doing my shoping for me (and better than I do it myself too!) came as usual to collect the list and go to Tesco. When she returned, she took it all out of the bags, put some of the things in the fridge, vacuumed the kitchen/dining room floor and managed to open a tin of rhubarb I had been unable to use the tin opener on, tried to sort out the sealing strip round a roll of foil that I had tried and failed to do, then went on an extratrip to a smaller shop to get a roll of foil.
I have no reason at all to think that there is covid 19 in this area, but even if there was, there is no way I could have wiped everything she had touched. This does not worry me - there's no point in getting in any way stressed about that. I shall not be getting anywhere near anyone for at least a week, so I'm self-isolated anyway.
and that's life these days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 26, 2020, 02:27:31 PM
Fintan O'Toole on Cummings behaviour


https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/26/cummings-contempt-lockdown-rules-public-catholic-church-ireland?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 26, 2020, 02:31:52 PM
Of course he did. >:(
And that's before we even get into his jolly to Barnard Castle under lock down (no longer self isolation) which, let's not forget, was on his wife's birthday.

He clearly contravened the rules at the time on lock-down which only allows someone to leave the house:

1. To travel to work (does not apply)
2. To get essential supplies and as infrequently as possible (does not apply)
3. Once per day for exercise - at the time that specifically did not allow you to drive somewhere for the exercise (rule broken and he actually admitted he went for exercise twice eon that trip).

And on the 'checking his vision' front - if he was actually concerned about sight impairment then the last thing you must do is drive to check it out. Indeed to do so constitutes an offence.

From:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/621557/inf-188X1-standards-of-vision-for-driving-cars-and-motorcycles-group-1.pdf

The legal eyesight standard means that you must be able to read a number plate from 20 metres. You must not have been told by a doctor or optician that your eyesight is currently worse than 6/12 (decimal 0.5) on the Snellen scale. If you are in any doubt, you should discuss with your optician or doctor. If required, you may wear glasses or corrective lenses to meet both of these standards.
If you do not meet this standard you cannot drive on a public road. If you do drive on a public road, you are guilty of an offence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on May 26, 2020, 02:32:50 PM
In due course I comment in more detail on your lengthy post as it contains numerous inaccuracies. But this one I can mail straight away.

A 4 year old child is most definitely NOT considered to be vulnerable in the context of child protection or COVID-19 simply because the are a 4 year old child. They would only be considered vulnerable were that child to have certain underlying health conditions or where there were specific safeguarding concerns - as far as I'm aware neither of those apply to Cummings son.

As you may or may not know I am the owner of a nursery - and when we were required to close we were allowed to remain open for the children of key workers unable to look after their children and children legally defined as vulnerable. We have about 30 4 year olds on our books - not a single one is classified as vulnerable in the legal context which is what would apply in terms of justification of breaking lock-down/self isolation.

The government has provided guidance on who is, and is not, considered vulnerable in cover-19 terms - it does not include 4 year old children.
You use the phrase, 'as far as I know' which means that you simply cannot eliminate the child's possible particular needs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 26, 2020, 02:35:11 PM
And another little oddity about Cunmings  'truth'


https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1265011724111011845.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 26, 2020, 02:35:25 PM
... while also protecting my vulnerable 4 year old child in the event that my wife and I both got too sick to care for him and did not want to dump him on random neighbours ...
Emotive non-sense.

What is wrong with your wife's two brothers who live just a couple of miles down the road. And it has been reported that Cummings has family in London too.

Risible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 26, 2020, 02:39:58 PM
Of course


https://metro.co.uk/2020/05/26/barnard-castle-means-pathetic-excuse-durham-dialect-12757215/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 26, 2020, 02:42:41 PM
You use the phrase, 'as far as I know' which means that you simply cannot eliminate the child's possible particular needs.
I said that as I cannot know for sure that he is vulnerable as defined by the government guidelines. Do you have any information to the contrary, for example that Cummings' son is defined as vulnerable which means his is:

aged 70 or older (regardless of medical conditions)
under 70 with an underlying health condition listed below (ie anyone instructed to get a flu jab as an adult each year on medical grounds):
chronic (long-term) mild to moderate respiratory diseases, such as asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), emphysema or bronchitis
chronic heart disease, such as heart failure
chronic kidney disease
chronic liver disease, such as hepatitis
chronic neurological conditions, such as Parkinson’s disease, motor neurone disease, multiple sclerosis (MS), a learning disability or cerebral palsy
diabetes
a weakened immune system as the result of conditions such as HIV and AIDS, or medicines such as steroid tablets
being seriously overweight (a body mass index (BMI) of 40 or above)
those who are pregnant
people who have received an organ transplant and remain on ongoing immunosuppression medication
people with cancer who are undergoing active chemotherapy or radiotherapy
people with cancers of the blood or bone marrow such as leukaemia who are at any stage of treatment
people with severe chest conditions such as cystic fibrosis or severe asthma (requiring hospital admissions or courses of steroid tablets)
people with severe diseases of body systems, such as severe kidney disease (dialysis)

And if he was, then the most dangerous place to be would be in a car for 6 hours with a person with symptoms. Were he actually vulnerable (as defined by his own guidance) the child should have been removed from a household containing self isolating people to a safe place (again according the Cummings own guidance) - but he wasn't - he remained with symptomatic people for 14 days including a 260 mile car journey in a small confined space.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 26, 2020, 02:45:02 PM
Adam Tomkins Tory MSP calls for Cummings to be sacked, asks that the leader of the Tory party in Scotland's parliament, Jackson Carlaw does the same (indications are that he has done)

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18475063.tory-msp-says-clear-cummings-should-sacked/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 26, 2020, 02:59:00 PM
And a detailed thread looking at the claims and timings from Aamer Anwar

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1265241537962749953.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 26, 2020, 03:42:33 PM
Which part of:

'However, if you have any of the symptoms above you should self-isolate at home.' and

'if you live with others and you are the first in the household to have symptoms of coronavirus (COVID-19), then you must stay at home for at least 7 days, but all other household members who remain well must stay at home and not leave the house for 14 days. The 14-day period starts from the day when the first person in the house became ill. See the explanatory diagram'

is consistent with driving 260 miles to Durham.
Selective quoting. The part in the guidance that says if you are living with children we are aware that not all these stay at home measures may be possible and to follow them to the best of your ability.

Quote
Cummins broke his own rules.
That’s your opinion. Others are available.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 26, 2020, 03:55:27 PM
Emotive non-sense.....

....Risible.
You’re entitled to your opinion. I feel the same way about many of your posts on this forum.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 26, 2020, 04:05:59 PM
Marina Hyde's latest


https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/26/dominic-cummings-boris-johnson-terrified-sack-him?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 26, 2020, 04:14:05 PM
Confirmation that Jackson Carlaw looking for at least something like a resignation 


https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scottish-tory-leader-jackson-carlaw-says-dominic-cummings-should-consider-position-2864978?hjbnjhbjb
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 26, 2020, 04:46:08 PM
Fintan O'Toole on Cummings behaviour


https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/26/cummings-contempt-lockdown-rules-public-catholic-church-ireland?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true
I get the point he is making. I just don't share the emotion but can understand that some people who feel they have made big sacrifices may feel betrayed. I haven't felt any emotional pain from being in lockdown. Mildly bored sometimes and missing going to the gym, but other than that no big sacrifice here.

I was really glad that we could not all get together and grieve my mother-in-law's death the way we normally would, as she died during lockdown; and her funeral is the best one I have ever been to because the limitation on numbers participating made it very peaceful plus the weather was beautiful and we buried her a day after she died. The family got together online every day for 60 days and recited the Quran together and my ability to recite in Arabic improved dramatically - never would have happened if she had not died and we weren't in lockdown.

I'm not too perturbed that my children and parents cannot spend time with each other - my parents' lives do not revolve around their grandchildren despite having cared for them on many occasions when the children were young, hence they seem to be coping with the separation just fine. But then again they left me as a baby in Sri Lanka for a year when I was about 6 months old, and came to England so that my mum could financially support my dad's Masters in civil engineering, so I'm not surprised that they are coping fine without seeing their grandchildren.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 26, 2020, 04:53:49 PM
I said that as I cannot know for sure that he is vulnerable as defined by the government guidelines. Do you have any information to the contrary, for example that Cummings' son is defined as vulnerable which means his is:

aged 70 or older (regardless of medical conditions)
under 70 with an underlying health condition listed below (ie anyone instructed to get a flu jab as an adult each year on medical grounds):
chronic (long-term) mild to moderate respiratory diseases, such as asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), emphysema or bronchitis
chronic heart disease, such as heart failure
chronic kidney disease
chronic liver disease, such as hepatitis
chronic neurological conditions, such as Parkinson’s disease, motor neurone disease, multiple sclerosis (MS), a learning disability or cerebral palsy
diabetes
a weakened immune system as the result of conditions such as HIV and AIDS, or medicines such as steroid tablets
being seriously overweight (a body mass index (BMI) of 40 or above)
those who are pregnant
people who have received an organ transplant and remain on ongoing immunosuppression medication
people with cancer who are undergoing active chemotherapy or radiotherapy
people with cancers of the blood or bone marrow such as leukaemia who are at any stage of treatment
people with severe chest conditions such as cystic fibrosis or severe asthma (requiring hospital admissions or courses of steroid tablets)
people with severe diseases of body systems, such as severe kidney disease (dialysis)

And if he was, then the most dangerous place to be would be in a car for 6 hours with a person with symptoms. Were he actually vulnerable (as defined by his own guidance) the child should have been removed from a household containing self isolating people to a safe place (again according the Cummings own guidance) - but he wasn't - he remained with symptomatic people for 14 days including a 260 mile car journey in a small confined space.
As already explained, I used the word "vulnerable" according to the ordinary meaning as in someone who needed safe-guarding, not the Covid-19 meaning. So fixating on the Covid-19 meaning is ignoring the point I was making.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 26, 2020, 05:16:40 PM
Now 29 Tory MPs calling for Cummings to go.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 26, 2020, 05:22:12 PM
As already explained, I used the word "vulnerable" according to the ordinary meaning as in someone who needed safe-guarding, not the Covid-19 meaning. So fixating on the Covid-19 meaning is ignoring the point I was making.
The only meaning which has any relevant in terms of the cover-19 guidance and whether Cummings broke them is the use of the term in that guidance. You can use as many definitions as you like, but the only relevant ones are:

aged 70 or older (regardless of medical conditions)
under 70 with an underlying health condition listed below (ie anyone instructed to get a flu jab as an adult each year on medical grounds):
chronic (long-term) mild to moderate respiratory diseases, such as asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), emphysema or bronchitis
chronic heart disease, such as heart failure
chronic kidney disease
chronic liver disease, such as hepatitis
chronic neurological conditions, such as Parkinson’s disease, motor neurone disease, multiple sclerosis (MS), a learning disability or cerebral palsy
diabetes
a weakened immune system as the result of conditions such as HIV and AIDS, or medicines such as steroid tablets
being seriously overweight (a body mass index (BMI) of 40 or above)
those who are pregnant
people who have received an organ transplant and remain on ongoing immunosuppression medication
people with cancer who are undergoing active chemotherapy or radiotherapy
people with cancers of the blood or bone marrow such as leukaemia who are at any stage of treatment
people with severe chest conditions such as cystic fibrosis or severe asthma (requiring hospital admissions or courses of steroid tablets)
people with severe diseases of body systems, such as severe kidney disease (dialysis)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 26, 2020, 05:31:05 PM
Selective quoting. The part in the guidance that says if you are living with children we are aware that not all these stay at home measures may be possible and to follow them to the best of your ability.
The key word there being possible, not preferred option, what is easiest for us, what my instinct says as a parent, nope possible.

Keep following this advice to the best of your ability, however, we are aware that not all these measures will be possible.

So the question is - was it not possible for Cummings and his wife to self isolate at home due to having a child. And the answer is, of course it was possible, they just chose not to.

And the main message is that you must not leave your home for 7/14 days while self isolating, unless it is not possible - it was perfectly possible for Cummings to stay at home, there were plenty of options for him if he and his wife were both ill and couldn't look after the child (not that that actually happened).

The point is that we have all made sacrifices - not done things that our instincts said we should in order to obey the rules - and yet Cummings drove 260 miles when he should not have left his home which is only allowable if it was not possible for him to remain in the house - it was perfectly possible for him to do that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 26, 2020, 05:32:54 PM
That’s your opinion. Others are available.
Leaving aside the self isolation period - please explain to my how Cummins failed to break the lock down (stay at home) rules when he drove to Barnard Castle, had a walk, drove part way back (had another walk).

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 26, 2020, 05:51:35 PM
The only meaning which has any relevant in terms of the cover-19 guidance and whether Cummings broke them is the use of the term in that guidance. You can use as many definitions as you like, but the only relevant ones are:

aged 70 or older (regardless of medical conditions)
under 70 with an underlying health condition listed below (ie anyone instructed to get a flu jab as an adult each year on medical grounds):
chronic (long-term) mild to moderate respiratory diseases, such as asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), emphysema or bronchitis
chronic heart disease, such as heart failure
chronic kidney disease
chronic liver disease, such as hepatitis
chronic neurological conditions, such as Parkinson’s disease, motor neurone disease, multiple sclerosis (MS), a learning disability or cerebral palsy
diabetes
a weakened immune system as the result of conditions such as HIV and AIDS, or medicines such as steroid tablets
being seriously overweight (a body mass index (BMI) of 40 or above)
those who are pregnant
people who have received an organ transplant and remain on ongoing immunosuppression medication
people with cancer who are undergoing active chemotherapy or radiotherapy
people with cancers of the blood or bone marrow such as leukaemia who are at any stage of treatment
people with severe chest conditions such as cystic fibrosis or severe asthma (requiring hospital admissions or courses of steroid tablets)
people with severe diseases of body systems, such as severe kidney disease (dialysis)
No - the dictionary meaning of "vulnerable" in terms of safeguarding small children is also relevant to the question of whether Cummings acted reasonably in driving to Durham.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 26, 2020, 06:00:02 PM
Leaving aside the self isolation period - please explain to my how Cummins failed to break the lock down (stay at home) rules when he drove to Barnard Castle, had a walk, drove part way back (had another walk).
You'll have to ask someone else.

See #2105 where I said "it seems suspect that he went to a local beauty spot by accident. I think it was wrong that he and his wife and son would get out of the car and sit by the river during lockdown instead of going straight back to their cottage - he should have realised how bad that would look if the public became aware of it."

and #2121 "But I don't believe the journey to a pretty Castle was to test his eyes - it sounds bogus to me."

Don't you read before you post on here or are you just confused?


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 26, 2020, 06:56:13 PM
You'll have to ask someone else.

See #2105 where I said "it seems suspect that he went to a local beauty spot by accident. I think it was wrong that he and his wife and son would get out of the car and sit by the river during lockdown instead of going straight back to their cottage - he should have realised how bad that would look if the public became aware of it."

and #2121 "But I don't believe the journey to a pretty Castle was to test his eyes - it sounds bogus to me."

Don't you read before you post on here or are you just confused?
So let's look at the possibilities.

1. We went for a drive to test his eyesight - he broke the rules and potentially committed a road traffic offence.

2. He went to Barnard Castle specifically to go for exercise - he broke the rules as somewhere 30 miles aways cannot be considered 'local' nor a necessary trip for exercise (the rule require you to stay local and not travel unnecessarily for exercise)

3. He went for a drive, not intending to go for a walk, but did anyway - he broke the rules as you can only leave your home for essential shopping, exercise (see above) or to travel to work - none apply.

Conclusion, whichever way you cut it, he broke the rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 26, 2020, 07:23:32 PM
The key word there being possible, not preferred option, what is easiest for us, what my instinct says as a parent, nope possible.

Keep following this advice to the best of your ability, however, we are aware that not all these measures will be possible.

So the question is - was it not possible for Cummings and his wife to self isolate at home due to having a child. And the answer is, of course it was possible, they just chose not to.

And the main message is that you must not leave your home for 7/14 days while self isolating, unless it is not possible - it was perfectly possible for Cummings to stay at home, there were plenty of options for him if he and his wife were both ill and couldn't look after the child (not that that actually happened).

The point is that we have all made sacrifices - not done things that our instincts said we should in order to obey the rules - and yet Cummings drove 260 miles when he should not have left his home which is only allowable if it was not possible for him to remain in the house - it was perfectly possible for him to do that.
His version is that their normal childcare options were not possible.

I note you have volunteered the services of all their relatives for child-care without asking them. Cummings' reasoning was that the 17 year old and the 20 year old would be at less risk of getting seriously ill if they had to look after his son compared to his other relatives and friends and that the nieces had volunteered to do child care duties. Do you know if any of the other relatives had volunteered their child-care services? Or whether the Cummings had the kind of relationship with other relatives where they could ask them to risk catching Coronavirus by coming over to their house or taking the 4 year-old into their own home?

We may have made sacrifices. However, the point is that if the Cummings decided they might not be able to care for their child at home if they both became ill and they came to the conclusion that it was not possible to get someone in London to come and live in their home for 14 days or longer as it was too much of an imposition and it was not possible to send the 4 year-old to someone else's house in London for 14 days or longer because of the risks, then a reasonable course of action was to get their child to a place where they can be looked after with the minimum contact with other people possible. They obviously could not drive to Durham once they were actually both too ill to drive.

Did everyone in the government who had recently been in close contact with Boris go into isolation once he tested positive for coronavirus?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 26, 2020, 07:27:27 PM
So let's look at the possibilities.

1. We went for a drive to test his eyesight - he broke the rules and potentially committed a road traffic offence.

2. He went to Barnard Castle specifically to go for exercise - he broke the rules as somewhere 30 miles aways cannot be considered 'local' nor a necessary trip for exercise (the rule require you to stay local and not travel unnecessarily for exercise)

3. He went for a drive, not intending to go for a walk, but did anyway - he broke the rules as you can only leave your home for essential shopping, exercise (see above) or to travel to work - none apply.

Conclusion, whichever way you cut it, he broke the rules.
Yep sure - in relation to the "eye-test drive" and getting out of the car to go for a walk to the river because "he felt sick" you and I are in agreement that he seems to have broken the rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 26, 2020, 07:44:52 PM
I get the point he is making. I just don't share the emotion but can understand that some people who feel they have made big sacrifices may feel betrayed. I haven't felt any emotional pain from being in lockdown. Mildly bored sometimes and missing going to the gym, but other than that no big sacrifice here.

I was really glad that we could not all get together and grieve my mother-in-law's death the way we normally would, as she died during lockdown; and her funeral is the best one I have ever been to because the limitation on numbers participating made it very peaceful plus the weather was beautiful and we buried her a day after she died. The family got together online every day for 60 days and recited the Quran together and my ability to recite in Arabic improved dramatically - never would have happened if she had not died and we weren't in lockdown.

I'm not too perturbed that my children and parents cannot spend time with each other - my parents' lives do not revolve around their grandchildren despite having cared for them on many occasions when the children were young, hence they seem to be coping with the separation just fine. But then again they left me as a baby in Sri Lanka for a year when I was about 6 months old, and came to England so that my mum could financially support my dad's Masters in civil engineering, so I'm not surprised that they are coping fine without seeing their grandchildren.
Sorry to hear about your mother--in-laws death, and yes, I can understand and agree that some issues have felt for individuals as working better when they have been following lockdown rules. I've been with my wife for longer than any period in the last ten years. I have also connected with people I would not have, and had a couple of friendships deepen because of circumstances.

But that doesn't get rid of the betrayal that many who had different experiences of lockdown from you, and for Susa0n Doris to dismiss those angry about having missed being with relatives who died as whingers is another reason why the behaviour of No Regrets Cummings is problematic. It supports people who broke the rules, and spits on those who followed them. As the Metro of all papers managed today, Stay Elite.

Before you reply to this, I would like you to read the Aamer Anwar thread that I posted because your idea that Cummings behaved 'reasonably'  seems ripped apart there.

But leaving that aside, my best wishes to you and your family, take care.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 26, 2020, 08:12:41 PM
Apparently 41 Tory MPs want him gone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 26, 2020, 08:34:35 PM
Apparently 41 Tory MPs want him gone.
And a minister has resigned.

And we are into terrifying 'revisionist history' territory now.

Cummings clearly broke the rules as they were widely understood in late March/early April - and those clearly understood rules resulted in people being fined for traveling for unnecessary childcare reasons.

Now because Cummings breaks the rules the government firstly tries to pretend that what he did was always understood to be in the rules (it wasn't) and now to try to rewrite history is looking at fines imposed on others simply to try to make it look like what they did was within the rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 26, 2020, 08:36:50 PM
Yep sure - in relation to the "eye-test drive" and getting out of the car to go for a walk to the river because "he felt sick" you and I are in agreement that he seems to have broken the rules.
Why can't you just bring yourself to say that he broke the rules. There is not way in which his trip to Barnard Castle can have been within the rules. It is just impossible, whichever way you look at it, and whichever reason for the trip you accept.

And if he broke the rules he needs to go - it is corrosive in the extreme to allow the architect of those rules to break them with impunity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 26, 2020, 08:43:18 PM
And a minister has resigned.

And we are into terrifying 'revisionist history' territory now.

Cummings clearly broke the rules as they were widely understood in late March/early April - and those clearly understood rules resulted in people being fined for traveling for unnecessary childcare reasons.

Now because Cummings breaks the rules the government firstly tries to pretend that what he did was always understood to be in the rules (it wasn't) and now to try to rewrite history is looking at fines imposed on others simply to try to make it look like what they did was within the rules.
Yeah, I think the dishonorable Douglas's resignation has already been mentioned on here. This is quite good but it gets Ross's election year wrong

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/05/four-conservative-groups-want-dominic-cummings-out-and-two-matter?fbclid=IwAR0Sbv62l83RGGDLQUCdoS6N-oU2CjYZG2eCKc0jm8uFCOc33nzuOGPTj6A



https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/05/four-conservative-groups-want-dominic-cummings-out-and-two-matter?fbclid=IwAR0Sbv62l83RGGDLQUCdoS6N-oU2CjYZG2eCKc0jm8uFCOc33nzuOGPTj6A

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 26, 2020, 08:43:41 PM
His version is that their normal childcare options were not possible.
Actually on the contrary - their normal childcare options were entirely possible.

Their normal childcare options being looking after their 4 year old themselves - which is what actually happened, if you accept Cummings account - neither the sister nor the nieces every had contact with the Cummins household.

Problem was they broke self isolation to drive 260 miles when their normal childcare option was entirely possible in London - in other words Cummings and Wakefield looking after their son as each worked through feeling ill - just as countless others did, while adhering to what the government told them - do not leave your house.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 26, 2020, 08:48:03 PM
And now we see that the UK govt has to accept that the laws they applied to others were breached by Cummings and si they might have to retrospectively change them.

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/government-to-look-at-scrapping-lockdown-fines-for-families-seeking-childcare_uk_5ecd2557c5b66801e008e3e3?ncid=other_facebook_eucluwzme5k&utm_campaign=share_facebook&fbclid=IwAR2-sRp_A3427zIH250_JJLjVUtJaLbu7z5tsrbPrDJ_jUVeGb16x09Ippk&guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9tLmZhY2Vib29rLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAHF9D4RzCY1PLlAgFNZYnhmu6VvuOHD0LSYPvSXP3VaRYcm2j84jtx99LASyhM9vLPN4UUytGgYnepbud2N0O83imusbkaMEtmUQkkWpnnZuNHsqnuf5rFvVD4WrJ5vEnUSWs--oKoWIs8KJgdtNmpU-TbccUl4dHeSaRIgWoHda
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 26, 2020, 08:51:40 PM
His version is that their normal childcare options were not possible.

I note you have volunteered the services of all their relatives for child-care without asking them. Cummings' reasoning was that the 17 year old and the 20 year old would be at less risk of getting seriously ill if they had to look after his son compared to his other relatives and friends and that the nieces had volunteered to do child care duties. Do you know if any of the other relatives had volunteered their child-care services? Or whether the Cummings had the kind of relationship with other relatives where they could ask them to risk catching Coronavirus by coming over to their house or taking the 4 year-old into their own home?

We may have made sacrifices. However, the point is that if the Cummings decided they might not be able to care for their child at home if they both became ill and they came to the conclusion that it was not possible to get someone in London to come and live in their home for 14 days or longer as it was too much of an imposition and it was not possible to send the 4 year-old to someone else's house in London for 14 days or longer because of the risks, then a reasonable course of action was to get their child to a place where they can be looked after with the minimum contact with other people possible. They obviously could not drive to Durham once they were actually both too ill to drive.

Did everyone in the government who had recently been in close contact with Boris go into isolation once he tested positive for coronavirus?

You don't seem to get the ludicrous logic of someone in a position of power, supposedly helping to put together a policy that would prevent the spread of a plague by people fleeing from highly infected urban areas to relatively unaffected rural areas, felt that that was exactly what he and his family needed to do - because he was unable to arrange child care in the event that he was taken ill.

Someone  in one of the highest positions of power, with Ministers, MPs, civil servants, the Police and NHS at his beck and call was unable to arrange for someone to look after his child? None of them  able to advise him on the correct actions to take?  Did he even try them? If it was necessary I'm sure they would have been able to arrange for him to be taken to his refuge, probably accompanied by a police escort - rather than risk a 250+ mile drive whilst infected and with a sick wife and "vulnerable" child.  And, just don't ask what any ordinary people are supposed to do in the same or worse situation.

Of-course it wasn't necessary. Did he break the rules? - does it matter? They certainly seem to have taken care to have hidden their activities but the fact is that "the rules" are a sham, for the mugs, to make it look as if something is being done. That he was exposed is just an inconvenience, their main care now is for the lock down to be loosened so the economy can get back flowing.
   
You and Susan seem to have fallen for a distraction put together by two professional liars and media manipulators.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 26, 2020, 09:09:02 PM
According to Sky they have backtracked from that now:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-govt-to-look-at-fines-given-to-families-in-lockdown-after-vicar-puts-hancock-on-spot-11995052
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 26, 2020, 09:14:08 PM
And now we see that the UK govt has to accept that the laws they applied to others were breached by Cummings and si they might have to retrospectively change them.

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/government-to-look-at-scrapping-lockdown-fines-for-families-seeking-childcare_uk_5ecd2557c5b66801e008e3e3?ncid=other_facebook_eucluwzme5k&utm_campaign=share_facebook&fbclid=IwAR2-sRp_A3427zIH250_JJLjVUtJaLbu7z5tsrbPrDJ_jUVeGb16x09Ippk&guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9tLmZhY2Vib29rLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAHF9D4RzCY1PLlAgFNZYnhmu6VvuOHD0LSYPvSXP3VaRYcm2j84jtx99LASyhM9vLPN4UUytGgYnepbud2N0O83imusbkaMEtmUQkkWpnnZuNHsqnuf5rFvVD4WrJ5vEnUSWs--oKoWIs8KJgdtNmpU-TbccUl4dHeSaRIgWoHda
Cummings can do no wrong.

So when he is found to have done wrong, everyone else who also did wrong must be proven not to have done wrong to prove that Cummings did no wrong.

Anyone listen to or read the article Wakefield wrote for the Spectator (and also on Thought for the Day in late April) recounting her experience with covid-19. She mentions:

Writing in The Spectator, Ms Wakefield described how she was stricken by the disease first and that her “kind” husband had rushed home to look after her. However, she went on, 24 hours later Mr Cummings said he felt “weird” and collapsed.

Weird that she never mentioned the 260 mile drive between the first sentence and the second one. Was she so out of it that she failed to remember it, was a middle of the night mercy dash of 260 miles with a 4 year old child so unremarkable as not to mention. Or did she know that they'd broken the rules so she mustn't mention that all the rest of the article takes place in Durham.

Also note the following:

Downing Street insisted Mr Cummings he had been working from home during his 14 days off work.

In the same magazine, Mr Cummings described being isolated at home with his wife and son as “sticky”.


New definition of home - a property on your parents' estate 260 mile from home. Why so shy at mentioning that little detail if you hadn't done anything wrong.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 26, 2020, 09:17:04 PM
Cummings can do no wrong.

So when he is found to have done wrong, everyone else who also did wrong must be proven not to have done wrong to prove that Cummings did no wrong.

Anyone listen to or read the article Wakefield wrote for the Spectator (and also on Thought for the Day in late April) recounting her experience with covid-19. She mentions:

Writing in The Spectator, Ms Wakefield described how she was stricken by the disease first and that her “kind” husband had rushed home to look after her. However, she went on, 24 hours later Mr Cummings said he felt “weird” and collapsed.

Weird that she never mentioned the 260 mile drive between the first sentence and the second one. Was she so out of it that she failed to remember it, was a middle of the night mercy dash of 260 miles with a 4 year old child so unremarkable as not to mention. Or did she know that they'd broken the rules so she mustn't mention that all the rest of the article takes place in Durham.

Also note the following:

Downing Street insisted Mr Cummings he had been working from home during his 14 days off work.

In the same magazine, Mr Cummings described being isolated at home with his wife and son as “sticky”.


New definition of home - a property on your parents' estate 260 mile from home. Why so shy at mentioning that little detail if you hadn't done anything wrong.
It's worth reading the twitter thread from Aamer Anwar that I posted earlier that covers the timings including the article.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 26, 2020, 09:17:52 PM
According to Sky they have backtracked from that now:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-govt-to-look-at-fines-given-to-families-in-lockdown-after-vicar-puts-hancock-on-spot-11995052
So more lies
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 26, 2020, 09:28:27 PM
It's worth reading the twitter thread from Aamer Anwar that I posted earlier that covers the timings including the article.
The item on Radio 4's today in which Wakefield recounts the story of the covid-19 events, while conveniently forgetting to mention a 260 mile trip to Durham.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7c_RdD2rJE&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR0ec02WiXJo9SQ51MDPXtmkUYUzxDvtESRstl-oKnwNFBx7mK_UvnKU8Rg

I wonder why?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 26, 2020, 09:58:23 PM
The item on Radio 4's today in which Wakefield recounts the story of the covid-19 events, while conveniently forgetting to mention a 260 mile trip to Durham.

I wonder why?
The deconstruction by Aamer is I think the clearest dealing with the dates so far.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 01:22:36 AM
And a detailed thread looking at the claims and timings from Aamer Anwar

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1265241537962749953.html

NS - as you asked me to read this, I have done so and my responses are as follows. I would add that I do not believe everything Cummins said, but what I believe and what there is evidence for are 2 different things. Ok here goes:

Thread 1/23,  2/22,  3/23,  4/23 and 6/23 regarding Mary having symptoms of Covid-19: she threw up, which is not a symptom of Covid-19. So Cummings would not be required to self-isolate.

I mention this because I took my aunt (my mother-in-law's sister) to A&E as she started throwing up violently and had severe abdominal pains - it turned out to be pancreatitis and she was admitted to hospital after 8 hours of us waiting in A&E. During that time we were first sent to the non-coronavirus section of A&E and then sent to the suspected coronavirus section. Even the hospital staff could not agree on whether she was showing symptoms of Covid-19 or not. She had no temperature, no cough ,no diarrhoea but some thought vomiting was a symptom while others thought it wasn't and still others kept listing her symptoms incorrectly every time they passed her on to a new nurse or doctor and I had to keep correcting them.

I am actually trying to figure out what the regulations were in relation to Cummings. If you have been in contact with someone outside your home who tested positive (Boris), should you immediately self-isolate or do you only self-isolate if you display symptoms yourself? My understanding is that it is the latter - if you display symptoms yourself.

6/23 - that is a legitimate question but I do not feel I could just ask any family member to put themselves at risk or deal with the burden of caring for my 4 year old. There are some family members I would feel able to turn to and some I would feel I could not bring myself to ask. But it is reasonable for other people to feel that they could ask any family member to do this. I think it very much depends on the dynamics of individual relationships.

7/23 - if the 17 and 20 year old nieces had volunteered to do it then it is ok to consider accepting their help to care for a small child if you are too ill to care for them yourself. On the basis that whoever helped you by caring for the child would have been putting themselves at risk and the younger you are and provided you have no underlying health conditions, the less statistically at risk you are of getting very ill.

9/23 - Cummings said he did not have any symptoms at the time he drove to Durham. He claimed he got the symptoms the day after he arrived in Durham. He could be lying but currently no evidence to prove that.

10/23 - legitimate question and Cummings says no but he could be lying. Again currently no evidence.

Cummings is very ill for a day or 2 he says so that's Sat 28th and Sun 29th and possibly Mon 30th March.

11/23, 12/23, 13/23  - agree the story about being very ill for only a day or 2 and picking his wife up at the hospital on Thurs 2nd April does not tie in with the Spectator piece written by his wife - one or both of them are being inaccurate. Also he said he could barely stand on 2nd April but was ok to drive on 3rd April, which does not make sense. It is possible I suppose but not my experience of illness so I find it improbable that someone could recover that fast. So I suspect he was not ok to drive but did so anyway as there were no taxis and he seems to want to emphasise that he maintained social distancing.

14/23 - Cummings said by Sat 11th April he was weak and exhausted but other than that not displaying any symptoms of Covid-19, so I don't understand the point being raised by Anwar that Cummings had said he never displayed any symptoms. Where did Cummings claim he never displayed any symptoms?

15/23 - agreed -  that's a fair question

16/23 - agreed.

17/23 - agreed

18/23 - fair questions - not sure what the answers given by Cummings were. I think he said he might have stopped for petrol. They were no longer required to self-isolate as it had been more than 14 days since 28th March when Cummings had first shown symptoms.

19/23 - fair question. Cummings answered that this was not the case. Will await evidence to the contrary. 

20/23 and 21/23 - I don't think it was reasonable to drive to the castle.

22/23 - agree that Cummings was not home.

23/23 - that's certainly one option - for Cummings to resign. I assume that depends on how badly the government thinks they need him. Or they could ask the police to look into it and if there is a case to answer apply the same rules as would be applied to a member of the public - fine him. That way it is not one rule for Cummings and another for the public.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 01:35:44 AM
Sorry to hear about your mother--in-laws death, and yes, I can understand and agree that some issues have felt for individuals as working better when they have been following lockdown rules. I've been with my wife for longer than any period in the last ten years. I have also connected with people I would not have, and had a couple of friendships deepen because of circumstances.

But that doesn't get rid of the betrayal that many who had different experiences of lockdown from you, and for Susa0n Doris to dismiss those angry about having missed being with relatives who died as whingers is another reason why the behaviour of No Regrets Cummings is problematic. It supports people who broke the rules, and spits on those who followed them. As the Metro of all papers managed today, Stay Elite.

Before you reply to this, I would like you to read the Aamer Anwar thread that I posted because your idea that Cummings behaved 'reasonably'  seems ripped apart there.

But leaving that aside, my best wishes to you and your family, take care.
NS - Thank you for your condolences and wishes. I appreciate it.

Yes I can understand the sense of betrayal some people feel because of their experiences, and also there are many who do not feel a sense of betrayal but do view Cummings in a negative way. I thought the Marina Hyde Guardian article you linked to reflected a lot of my views in relation to Boris and Cummings, but I disagreed with some parts.

I am not sure who Susan referred to as whingers - I will have to go back and re-read.

I have responded regarding the Anwar thread separately. I do not think Cummings acted reasonably in relation to the drive to the castle.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on May 27, 2020, 03:17:27 AM
And the American beliefs on conspiracies

https://news.yahoo.com/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-shows-coronavirus-conspiracy-theories-spreading-on-the-right-may-hamper-vaccine-efforts-152843610.html

There's this, and conspiracies about face masks, which has now been proven to be mainly promoted by "bots."  Given that most of these "bots" are controlled by Russia and now China, it would seem that America is in a real fight for its life right now.  Right now?  It's about a 50/50 chance we will survive this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 27, 2020, 06:32:10 AM
At 5/23, Cummings says "For years I have warned about the dangers of pandemics". This, it transpires, is a lie. He edited his blog in April to add the reference to pandemics. https://fullfact.org/health/cummings-blog-coronavirus/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 27, 2020, 08:26:45 AM
Cummings and Trump have at least one thing in common, they are liars!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 08:30:02 AM
Thread 1/23,  2/22,  3/23,  4/23 and 6/23 regarding Mary having symptoms of Covid-19: she threw up, which is not a symptom of Covid-19. So Cummings would not be required to self-isolate.
In which case Cummings still broke the rules as the country was in lock down - the only reasons to leave your house being:

1. To travel to work if you cannot work at home
2. To buy essential items as infrequently as possible
3. To exercise once a day close to home

Under which one of those is a 260 mile journey justified?

If fact the government had clarified that you must not travel to another property (second home, holiday let, someone else's house etc) for the purposes of either lock down or self isolation.

It doesn't help - it is quite possible that Wakefield didn't have COVID-19, but it would appear that Cummings did so frankly it makes no difference to the issue of breaking the rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on May 27, 2020, 08:42:12 AM
Apparently 41 Tory MPs want him gone.
From the safety of an 80+ majority, they probably feel they are on safe ground. I think they should think twice before speaking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 08:43:17 AM
Why can't you just bring yourself to say that he broke the rules.
Because I normally use words like “seem” when I write posts as opposed to making pompous arrogant declarations like you. You have your irritating style of posting and I have mine. If you can’t tolerate it that’s your problem.
Quote
There is not way in which his trip to Barnard Castle can have been within the rules. It is just impossible, whichever way you look at it, and whichever reason for the trip you accept.
As I have already said in the first post I made about Cummings’ trip to Durham, I don’t think the trip to the castle was justified.

Quote
And if he broke the rules he needs to go - it is corrosive in the extreme to allow the architect of those rules to break them with impunity.
Or like the public in a similar situation, he could be spoken to by the police and fined for driving to the Castle. It isn’t a shock to many of the public that MPs breach rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 27, 2020, 08:46:27 AM
In which case Cummings still broke the rules as the country was in lock down - the only reasons to leave your house being:

1. To travel to work if you cannot work at home
2. To buy essential items as infrequently as possible
3. To exercise once a day close to home

Under which one of those is a 260 mile journey justified?

If fact the government had clarified that you must not travel to another property (second home, holiday let, someone else's house etc) for the purposes of either lock down or self isolation.

It doesn't help - it is quite possible that Wakefield didn't have COVID-19, but it would appear that Cummings did so frankly it makes no difference to the issue of breaking the rules.

It is bizarre after all the interviews, the article from Wakefield, and Cummings statement that we still don't really know what the.trip was for. It is still unclear whether Cummings or Wakefield thought either of them had Covid 19 at the time of the drive. Gabriella is right that vomiting is not one of the classic symptoms but it isn't clear whether they thought it was something else, or whether they thought it might be an atypical symptom.

If someone were to have norovirus or something similar, the last thing I would do is pack them and a four year old in a car and try and drive 260 miles without stopping. IF they were sufficiently well to do that, then there is no concept of an emergency.


The whole narrative is muddled, and given part of that relates to Wakefield's article, it is hard not to see that as deliberate obfuscation and lying by omission.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 27, 2020, 08:47:25 AM
From the safety of an 80+ majority, they probably feel they are on safe ground. I think they should think twice before speaking.
Why should they 'think twice'?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on May 27, 2020, 08:56:58 AM
NS - Thank you for your condolences and wishes. I appreciate it.

Yes I can understand the sense of betrayal some people feel because of their experiences, and also there are many who do not feel a sense of betrayal but do view Cummings in a negative way. I thought the Marina Hyde Guardian article you linked to reflected a lot of my views in relation to Boris and Cummings, but I disagreed with some parts.

I am not sure who Susan referred to as whingers - I will have to go back and re-read.
First, Gabriella, I think all your recent post are far and away the best on this current situation. I admire very much the time and care you have taken with reading and watching and responding. As far as I can see, I agree with all you are saying and thank you for writing such very interesting posts. 

The whingers or moaners are mainly those whom I hear on FiveLive phone-ins. Mind you, since there is so much of it, I have to turn off after a short while every time I turn on!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 09:07:45 AM
The whingers or moaners are mainly those whom I hear on FiveLive phone-ins. Mind you, since there is so much of it, I have to turn off after a short while every time I turn on!
This goes way beyond the usual 'whingers and moaners' (whoever they may be).

There is genuine anger across the widest span of the population - it takes something when The Mirror and the Daily Mail are on the same side of an argument about politics.

But this is whipped up Westminster bubble story - no the anger is bottom up. Why? Because countless people have made huge sacrifices since March, have obeyed the rules, have ignored their instincts to go and see loving relatives, to see new born children, to look after children whilst ill, not to see loved relatives etc etc etc - because they did not believe they were allowed to under the rules and they recognised that everyone needed to follow those rules to keep us all safe. And then they find that the architect of those rules can break them with impunity - that's bad enough. But to make it worse he (and the government) is now kind of implying that they were really just a framework and we all needed to interpret them and follow our judgement. So effectively they are telling the public they were mugs for obeying the rules, that grieving woman who didn't visit her dying mother was a mug for not 'following her instinct', that father who wasn't present at the birth of his child was a mug for not 'following his instinct' etc etc.

Remember when Hancock looked us in the eye and said 'These are not requests, these are instructions' - we believed him and Cummings and the government are now implying we were mugs for doing so.

That's why there is anger like I've never seen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 09:11:23 AM
You don't seem to get the ludicrous logic of someone in a position of power, supposedly helping to put together a policy that would prevent the spread of a plague by people fleeing from highly infected urban areas to relatively unaffected rural areas, felt that that was exactly what he and his family needed to do - because he was unable to arrange child care in the event that he was taken ill.

Someone  in one of the highest positions of power, with Ministers, MPs, civil servants, the Police and NHS at his beck and call was unable to arrange for someone to look after his child? None of them  able to advise him on the correct actions to take?  Did he even try them? If it was necessary I'm sure they would have been able to arrange for him to be taken to his refuge, probably accompanied by a police escort - rather than risk a 250+ mile drive whilst infected and with a sick wife and "vulnerable" child.  And, just don't ask what any ordinary people are supposed to do in the same or worse situation.
That’s the whole point - I actually don’t think arranging child care for a 4 year old child who was potentially a carrier of Covid-19 is a simple matter in a pandemic when parents might be severely incapacitated and possibly end up hospitalised and dead. Of course the kid could have been dumped with someone or taken into social care but if I had a better option to keep my 4 year-old from having to be dumped with someone for 14 days or longer, I would take it.

Cummings said he had no symptoms when he drove but yes he could be lying but no the Press have not provided evidence that he is lying but yes they can still write articles without evidence stating he drove while showing symptoms.

Yes I get that some members of the public are upset that Cummings had options that they themselves do not have, or think that he is using child-care as an excuse to isolate in Durham. That’s a valid speculation.

Quote
Of-course it wasn't necessary. Did he break the rules? - does it matter? They certainly seem to have taken care to have hidden their activities but the fact is that "the rules" are a sham, for the mugs, to make it look as if something is being done. That he was exposed is just an inconvenience, their main care now is for the lock down to be loosened so the economy can get back flowing.
   
You and Susan seem to have fallen for a distraction put together by two professional liars and media manipulators.
Or I can relate to the reason for driving to Durham to isolate near his sister, nieces and parents for child-care reasons and I don’t feel betrayed or even particularly care that he did.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 27, 2020, 09:12:26 AM
First, Gabriella, I think all your recent post are far and away the best on this current situation. I admire very much the time and care you have taken with reading and watching and responding. As far as I can see, I agree with all you are saying and thank you for writing such very interesting posts. 

The whingers or moaners are mainly those whom I hear on FiveLive phone-ins. Mind you, since there is so much of it, I have to turn off after a short while every time I turn on!

People have an absolute right to be angry with the way Cummings has behaved. You might not be so thrilled if you picked up the virus from someone who wasn't self-isolating.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 09:16:27 AM
If someone were to have norovirus or something similar, the last thing I would do is pack them and a four year old in a car and try and drive 260 miles without stopping. IF they were sufficiently well to do that, then there is no concept of an emergency.
I agree - it would be an extremely foolish thing to do, but in normal circumstances there are no rules to prevent them. But under the current rules there can be no justification unless:

1. It is clear you cannot look after the child yourself - that wasn't the case at the point they made the decision nor thereafter.
2. You had exhausted all options for child-care that did not involve you breaking self isolation including
    a) Relatives/friends nearby being asked to support if necessary
    b) Getting someone else to come to your house to help look after the child (they'd need to self isolate themselves, but that is fine within the rules
    c) Removing the non-symptomatic child from the household (separating him form symptomatic people) to stay with someone else (they'd need to self isolate too).

All of those are in the rules and only if all of those are exhausted could there be a possible justification for travel. In reality they never got beyond 1, as they were able to look after the child. But they are completely silent on 2) - and it isn't reasonable to say 'hey my neices offered, so that's what we went with' - they were 260 miles away - the onus was on Cummings and Wakefield to look for a solution that didn't requirement breaking self isolation - it is unclear they ever did.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 09:18:52 AM
In which case Cummings still broke the rules as the country was in lock down - the only reasons to leave your house being:

1. To travel to work if you cannot work at home
2. To buy essential items as infrequently as possible
3. To exercise once a day close to home

Under which one of those is a 260 mile journey justified?

If fact the government had clarified that you must not travel to another property (second home, holiday let, someone else's house etc) for the purposes of either lock down or self isolation.

It doesn't help - it is quite possible that Wakefield didn't have COVID-19, but it would appear that Cummings did so frankly it makes no difference to the issue of breaking the rules.
My answer has not changed from the previous times you asked this.

The day after lockdown began, 24 March, the deputy chief medical officer for England, Dr Jenny Harries, clarified who could look after a child if both parents or carers were incapacitated.
She said: "Clearly if you have adults who are unable to look after a small child, that is an exceptional circumstance.
"And if the individuals do not have access to care support - formal care support - or to family, they will be able to work through their local authority hubs."

Any of the government lockdown guidance can be overruled by safeguarding concerns, or prevention of harm, Dr Harries said at Saturday's briefing.
She used the examples of an elderly person with no supply of medication, or a child with both parents too unwell to provide medical care.
"Risk to life" would be a valid reason to break lockdown rules, Dr Harries said.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 09:23:29 AM
People have an absolute right to be angry with the way Cummings has behaved. You might not be so thrilled if you picked up the virus from someone who wasn't self-isolating.
And let's not forget that at the time when Cummings drove 260 miles to Durham London was the epicentre of infections and the NE had few. A few weeks later and the reverse is true - the NE is a hot spot - where did all those infections come from?

Also did you hear the really moving story of the ex MP from Barnard Castle - her father was in a care home and died on 24 April. She lived just 200 metres away and she didn't visit, because she obeyed to lock down rules. Now it is unclear whether COVID-19 contributed to this man's death (he wasn't tested), but the point remains that why she was diligently ignoring her 'instincts' to visit her dying father, just 2 minutes walk away, Cummins was driving 260 miles when he should have been self isolating and taking a trip to Barnard Castle on his wife's birthday (Easter Sunday - 12th April) in clear contravention of lock down rules. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 27, 2020, 09:29:29 AM
First, Gabriella, I think all your recent post are far and away the best on this current situation. I admire very much the time and care you have taken with reading and watching and responding. As far as I can see, I agree with all you are saying and thank you for writing such very interesting posts. 

The whingers or moaners are mainly those whom I hear on FiveLive phone-ins. Mind you, since there is so much of it, I have to turn off after a short while every time I turn on!
Nice to see you once again portraying the many people who have had people die and not be able to visit them as whingers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 09:30:48 AM
My answer has not changed from the previous times you asked this.

The day after lockdown began, 24 March, the deputy chief medical officer for England, Dr Jenny Harries, clarified who could look after a child if both parents or carers were incapacitated.
She said: "Clearly if you have adults who are unable to look after a small child, that is an exceptional circumstance.
"And if the individuals do not have access to care support - formal care support - or to family, they will be able to work through their local authority hubs."

Any of the government lockdown guidance can be overruled by safeguarding concerns, or prevention of harm, Dr Harries said at Saturday's briefing.
She used the examples of an elderly person with no supply of medication, or a child with both parents too unwell to provide medical care.
"Risk to life" would be a valid reason to break lockdown rules, Dr Harries said.
She had made it clear that this was a safeguarding clause - ie. only to be triggering where there are genuine safeguarding concerns - there were no such safeguarding concerns here.

And you'll note her very words:

"Clearly if you have adults who are unable to look after a small child, that is an exceptional circumstance." - that did not apply - at no time were Cummings and/or his wife unable to look after their child. There was no exceptional circumstance. And even if there were they needed to look for options that did not require them to break self isolation, of which there are of course plenty, not least asking for official support.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 27, 2020, 09:34:31 AM
She had made it clear that this was a safeguarding clause - ie. only to be triggering where there are genuine safeguarding concerns - there were no such safeguarding concerns here.

And you'll note her very words:

"Clearly if you have adults who are unable to look after a small child, that is an exceptional circumstance." - that did not apply - at no time were Cummings and/or his wife unable to look after their child. There was no exceptional circumstance. And even if there were they needed to look for options that did not require them to break self isolation, of which there are of course plenty, not least asking for official support.
This again relates back to the muddled narrative. Cummings and Wakefield had Schrodinger's Covid - it was an emergency because they had it on the drive, but they didn't cause any risk because they didn't have it on the drive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 09:40:13 AM
I agree - it would be an extremely foolish thing to do, but in normal circumstances there are no rules to prevent them. But under the current rules there can be no justification unless:

1. It is clear you cannot look after the child yourself - that wasn't the case at the point they made the decision nor thereafter.
2. You had exhausted all options for child-care that did not involve you breaking self isolation including
    a) Relatives/friends nearby being asked to support if necessary
    b) Getting someone else to come to your house to help look after the child (they'd need to self isolate themselves, but that is fine within the rules
    c) Removing the non-symptomatic child from the household (separating him form symptomatic people) to stay with someone else (they'd need to self isolate too).

All of those are in the rules and only if all of those are exhausted could there be a possible justification for travel. In reality they never got beyond 1, as they were able to look after the child. But they are completely silent on 2) - and it isn't reasonable to say 'hey my neices offered, so that's what we went with' - they were 260 miles away - the onus was on Cummings and Wakefield to look for a solution that didn't requirement breaking self isolation - it is unclear they ever did.
You do realise they cannot order a friend/ neighbour/ relative in London to provide child-care right?  I would be pretty pissed off if all of my friends/ neighbours/ relatives phoned up and just presumed they have a right to ask me to take on child-care of their possibly Covid-19 infected 4 year-old while I also had to deal with existing responsibilities eg work, my own children’s online schooling etc. If I had offered based on the closeness I felt to a particular person or because I was selfless enough to risk my health that’s a different matter.

It would be even more disruptive if my whole household had to self-isolate for 14 days in order to look after this child.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 09:54:49 AM
You do realise they cannot order a friend/ neighbour/ relative in London to provide child-care right?
We have no idea that they even asked - do we. Despite Wakefield's two brother both living in London, and I think one of them also has two children of similar ages to the neices.

We are in exceptional times - the only possible justification for leaving self isolation is clearly if you have no alternative and that means working through all the possible options that do not involve leaving their house in London. There was absolutely no justification for leaving their house in London as at that point and for the next 14 days they were able to look after the child themselves. You cannot break self isolation as a pre-emptive move just in case something might happen. Cummings, having been in SAGE meetings etc must have known that even were they both to come down with COVID-19, as healthy people in their 40s the likelihood of them both developing symptoms severe enough at the same that their child could not be looked after is vanishingly small. And that is as it turned out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 09:55:06 AM
She had made it clear that this was a safeguarding clause - ie. only to be triggering where there are genuine safeguarding concerns - there were no such safeguarding concerns here.

And you'll note her very words:

"Clearly if you have adults who are unable to look after a small child, that is an exceptional circumstance." - that did not apply - at no time were Cummings and/or his wife unable to look after their child. There was no exceptional circumstance. And even if there were they needed to look for options that did not require them to break self isolation, of which there are of course plenty, not least asking for official support.
That was in relation to who could look after a child once the parents are incapacitated- so that means if Cummings and wife became incapacitated it was ok for the sister and nieces to breach lockdown rules to stay with Cummings st their cottage or take the child to their house.

Jenny Harries also said if there are safeguarding concerns or a need to prevent harm, it was reasonable to break the rules. Cummings took this to mean that his concern that Boris had Covid-19 so he could be infected combined with his wife’s illness might make them too incapacitated to look after their child so it was reasonable to take precautionary child-care measures by travelling to Durham rather than wait to be incapacitated when he would be unable to do the trip.

He could of course be lying and he did have child-care options in London and he actually went to Durham because it was more relaxing than isolating at home. He could be lying about the threats and people shouting outside his house or whatever he said. In the absence of more information I will have to see what comes out of any investigation into the matter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on May 27, 2020, 09:57:00 AM
This again relates back to the muddled narrative. Cummings and Wakefield had Schrodinger's Covid - it was an emergency because they had it on the drive, but they didn't cause any risk because they didn't have it on the drive.

Yes, in fact Cummings states in his presser that he wasn't tested.   Did they in fact have covid?   I can't see any evidence of that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 09:58:13 AM
Jenny Harries also said if there are safeguarding concerns or a need to prevent harm, it was reasonable to break the rules.
Indeed she did - and there were no safeguarding concerns in this case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 10:01:24 AM
We have no idea that they even asked - do we. Despite Wakefield's two brother both living in London, and I think one of them also has two children of similar ages to the neices.

We are in exceptional times - the only possible justification for leaving self isolation is clearly if you have no alternative and that means working through all the possible options that do not involve leaving their house in London. There was absolutely no justification for leaving their house in London as at that point and for the next 14 days they were able to look after the child themselves. You cannot break self isolation as a pre-emptive move just in case something might happen. Cummings, having been in SAGE meetings etc must have known that even were they both to come down with COVID-19, as healthy people in their 40s the likelihood of them both developing symptoms severe enough at the same that their child could not be looked after is vanishingly small. And that is as it turned out.
That depends on how they assessed their abilities to be able to look after a 4 year old for many days while sick. You might find it doable, others might think it is beyond their capabilities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 27, 2020, 10:04:24 AM
Yes, in fact Cummings states in his presser that he wasn't tested.   Did they in fact have covid?   I can't see any evidence of that.
I think we have to take it that at some point in the Durham sojourn that based on the symptoms at least he did. That however doesn't mean that we clear up if Wakefield did or whether at the time they did the first drive whether they thought either of them had it. If they didn't think they had it, they shouldn't have done the drive, and yet if they did think they had they shouldn't have done the drive either,

It's also unclear what the trip to the hospital while they were staying in Durham actually was about,
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 10:10:45 AM
That depends on how they assessed their abilities to be able to look after a 4 year old for many days while sick. You might find it doable, others might think it is beyond their capabilities.
Ah bless - snowflakes - get a grip Gabriella - we are in exceptional times and the government is expecting us all to make considerable sacrifices to keep the country safe. I might find it hard to look after my 4-year old so I'll break self isolation even though at the time:

1. There was no clear evidence that either had covid-19, and Cummings was well enough to drive 260 miles
2. There was no evidence that were they both to become ill that they'd both be ill at the same time
3. There was no evidence that were they both to become ill that they'd both be ill at the same time and their symptoms would be severe enough to be unable to look after their child.

I'm sorry Gab - this isn't about exceptional circumstances, it isn't about safeguarding, it is about Cummings and his wife taking a personal and selfish decision that self isolating in Durham would be easier for them (despite government guidelines being clear that you cannot cherry pick the place to self isolate). Wakefield even says as much in her article - saying that her thoughts when she became ill was that she and Cummings would have a nice 14 days of self isolation, she'd have him back from work etc etc. That was the context in which they made the decision - that's what she said before she knew that all hell would break loose when people found out about the drive.

Sure it's much nicer to spend 14 days self isolation in a nice rural spot where you can go out for walks on private land etc etc, rather than in Islington. But that's not what the rules allow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 10:16:23 AM
Indeed she did - and there were no safeguarding concerns in this case.
The advice to the public from Harries was you can break lockdown rules in situations where you think it necessary to prevent harm. That would require the public to exercise their judgement.

Whether their actions were justified would have to be determined after they had exercised their judgement and broken the rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 27, 2020, 10:25:57 AM
...
Or I can relate to the reason for driving to Durham to isolate near his sister, nieces and parents for child-care reasons and I don’t feel betrayed or even particularly care that he did.

I should think that, assuming that they were the true reasons, most parents would understand and relate to them. Neither do I feel betrayed.

However, I do care that, as the spin doctor in chief for the current regime in the current crisis, having taken the decisions and actions that they took,  they attempt to keep it hidden and he does not resign.
   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 10:28:30 AM
Ah bless - snowflakes - get a grip Gabriella - we are in exceptional times and the government is expecting us all to make considerable sacrifices to keep the country safe. I might find it hard to look after my 4-year old so I'll break self isolation even though at the time:

1. There was no clear evidence that either had covid-19, and Cummings was well enough to drive 260 miles
2. There was no evidence that were they both to become ill that they'd both be ill at the same time
3. There was no evidence that were they both to become ill that they'd both be ill at the same time and their symptoms would be severe enough to be unable to look after their child.

I'm sorry Gab - this isn't about exceptional circumstances, it isn't about safeguarding, it is about Cummings and his wife taking a personal and selfish decision that self isolating in Durham would be easier for them (despite government guidelines being clear that you cannot cherry pick the place to self isolate). Wakefield even says as much in her article - saying that her thoughts when she became ill was that she and Cummings would have a nice 14 days of self isolation, she'd have him back from work etc etc. That was the context in which they made the decision - that's what she said before she knew that all hell would break loose when people found out about the drive.

Sure it's much nicer to spend 14 days self isolation in a nice rural spot where you can go out for walks on private land etc etc, rather than in Islington. But that's not what the rules allow.
You do know that calling someone a snowflake does not usually cause them to change their assessment of their abilities though it might make you feel smug and superior? I get that sounding smug and superior is your usual posting style on here.

The wife is a journalist- I would not take everything she wrote as being factual- she wasn’t writing a deposition. She was writing an article to project particular images that she wanted to share or convey certain ideas. She also said Cummings was a kind husband.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 27, 2020, 10:28:38 AM
Breaking news - Cummings caught sacrificing a virgin at the full moon - Gabriella and SusanDoris spring to his defence - "He was exercising his right to freedom of religion".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 27, 2020, 10:29:10 AM
The advice to the public from Harries was you can break lockdown rules in situations where you think it necessary to prevent harm. That would require the public to exercise their judgement.

Whether their actions were justified would have to be determined after they had exercised their judgement and broken the rules.

Actually I think Harries should resign as well, she has been rubbish throughout the whole period!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on May 27, 2020, 10:34:41 AM
People have an absolute right to be angry with the way Cummings has behaved. You might not be so thrilled if you picked up the virus from someone who wasn't self-isolating.
That's not the point. People have all sorts of rights. As I understand it, Cummings broke the spirit of the rule, but not the letter. And it was not a law that had gone through Parliament and been passed.
I don't think much of Cummings, but with regard to the dreadful behaviour of people shouting abuse at him from their windows, which I understand has been the case, then who is more virtuous, or right or wrong?

If I happen to catch the virus, it will have nothing to do with cummings behaviour and I would not expect him to consider my personal situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 10:40:27 AM
I should think that, assuming that they were the true reasons, most parents would understand and relate to them. Neither do I feel betrayed.

However, I do care that, as the spin doctor in chief for the current regime in the current crisis, having taken the decisions and actions that they took,  they attempt to keep it hidden and he does not resign.
 
Sure. I didn’t vote Tory and I always thought it was only a matter of time before Boris lost his political capital. It was all built on self-serving spin and lies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 27, 2020, 10:44:34 AM
This again relates back to the muddled narrative. Cummings and Wakefield had Schrodinger's Covid - it was an emergency because they had it on the drive, but they didn't cause any risk because they didn't have it on the drive.

NS, I think you have finally solved quantum mechanics - 

The Dissembling Universe Theory: Electrons and their mates are all lying bastards!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 10:51:06 AM
You do know that calling someone a snowflake does not usually cause them to change their assessment of their abilities though it might make you feel smug and superior? I get that sounding smug and superior is your usual posting style on here.
Nice ad hominem attack.

The wife is a journalist- I would not take everything she wrote as being factual- she wasn’t writing a deposition. She was writing an article to project particular images that she wanted to share or convey certain ideas. She also said Cummings was a kind husband.
The whole episode as recounted by Wakefield (before the controversy) and by Cummings (after the story broke) are so full of holes it becomes pretty challenging to know where the truth lies sadly.

So Wakefield claims:

'Day in, day out for ten days he lay doggo with a high fever and spasms that made the muscles lump and twitch in his legs. He could breathe, but only in a limited, shallow way,'

Yet Cummings claims he was well enough to drive to a hospital smack in the middle of that 10 day period.

And I'm sure she does think he is a kind husband - why would she have married him otherwise. But just being a kind husband doesn't exempt you from being a nightmare boss, nor having a semi-detached acquaintance with the truth.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 10:52:15 AM
Sure. I didn’t vote Tory and I always thought it was only a matter of time before Boris lost his political capital. It was all built on self-serving spin and lies.
And who is the chief architect of that self service spin and lies?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on May 27, 2020, 10:54:32 AM
Cummings has turned the rules into a matter of personal choice, whereas they were taken as a collective effort to defeat the virus.  How naive we are.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 10:59:29 AM
Cummings has turned the rules into a matter of personal choice, whereas they were taken as a collective effort to defeat the virus.  How naive we are.
Exactly the anger is two fold.

Firstly the notion that it is one rule for the elite, another for everyone else.

But secondly that we were all being a bit stupid for following the rules rather than bending them to suit our personal needs and 'instinct' - blimey how many people would have taken the agonising decision not to visit a loved one who was dying if they'd thought the rules were, basically, optional, according to our personal choice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on May 27, 2020, 11:00:38 AM
NS

If your opinion of my character and feelings is  as you have portrayed it here i.e. as hard and unfeeling, after many years of reading my posts, then I am very sorry to hear it.

Gabriella

Your rational and impartial assessment would, in my opinion, make you a very good candidate for being on the Enquiry Committee which might or might not be set up later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 27, 2020, 11:08:46 AM
NS

If your opinion of my character and feelings is  as you have portrayed it here i.e. as hard and unfeeling, after many years of reading my posts, then I am very sorry to hear it.

Gabriella

Your rational and impartial assessment would, in my opinion, make you a very good candidate for being on the Enquiry Committee which might or might not be set up later.

I am just going on your dismissal of those who didn't get to see their loved ones before death who are upset at this as whingers.

As for Gabriella, I would have no problem with her being on an enquiry but you stating that her assessment as rational and impartial seems to me more that you agree with her. So I don't think you are making a rational and impartial statement there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 11:08:57 AM
Nice ad hominem attack.
You’re welcome. You made a similar comment about Sriram’s posting style so I knew you would approve.
Quote
The whole episode as recounted by Wakefield (before the controversy) and by Cummings (after the story broke) are so full of holes it becomes pretty challenging to know where the truth lies sadly.

So Wakefield claims:

'Day in, day out for ten days he lay doggo with a high fever and spasms that made the muscles lump and twitch in his legs. He could breathe, but only in a limited, shallow way,'

Yet Cummings claims he was well enough to drive to a hospital smack in the middle of that 10 day period.

And I'm sure she does think he is a kind husband - why would she have married him otherwise. But just being a kind husband doesn't exempt you from being a nightmare boss, nor having a semi-detached acquaintance with the truth.
Yes that was my point - I agree with you - hard to know what the truth is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 11:10:22 AM
And who is the chief architect of that self service spin and lies?
Cummings - that’s why a lot of people don’t like him and why Boris is so desperate to hang onto him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 11:21:51 AM
Yes that was my point - I agree with you - hard to know what the truth is.
What we do know is that Cummings drove 260 miles from London to Durham - that isn't in doubt.

We also know that he drove from Durham to Barnard Castle and back - that also isn't in doubt.

Without clear justification both are breaches of the rules. I have seen no credible justification for the first trip and there can be no justification for the latter.

But you cannot let people create a mist of confusion and confiscation to get away with wrong doing. He is a senior public servant, he was the architect of the rules, he broke the rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 11:22:12 AM
Exactly the anger is two fold.

Firstly the notion that it is one rule for the elite, another for everyone else.

But secondly that we were all being a bit stupid for following the rules rather than bending them to suit our personal needs and 'instinct' - blimey how many people would have taken the agonising decision not to visit a loved one who was dying if they'd thought the rules were, basically, optional, according to our personal choice.
I think lots of members of the public were exercising their own judgement- I know I was. I stayed with my dying mother-in-law for hours each day during lockdown down because she was alone in her home. When my husband and I left another of his siblings took over for a few hours. We didn’t visit my aunt in hospital (my mother-in-law’s primary carer) because the hospital would not allow visitors due to lockdown. I saw lots of neighbours on VE Day exercising their own judgements. Which is probably why there are many of us who don’t feel betrayed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on May 27, 2020, 11:22:58 AM
Exactly the anger is two fold.

Firstly the notion that it is one rule for the elite, another for everyone else.

But secondly that we were all being a bit stupid for following the rules rather than bending them to suit our personal needs and 'instinct' - blimey how many people would have taken the agonising decision not to visit a loved one who was dying if they'd thought the rules were, basically, optional, according to our personal choice.

My wife hasn't seen her mum for 10 weeks, and missed her 95th birthday.  Her best friend died of covid, and she hasn't met anyone during that time.   I suppose my wife should have gone to see her, under the reasonable excuse clause.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 11:26:11 AM
What we do know is that Cummings drove 260 miles from London to Durham - that isn't in doubt.

We also know that he drove from Durham to Barnard Castle and back - that also isn't in doubt.

Without clear justification both are breaches of the rules. I have seen no credible justification for the first trip and there can be no justification for the latter.

But you cannot let people create a mist of confusion and confiscation to get away with wrong doing. He is a senior public servant, he was the architect of the rules, he broke the rules.
You have not seen credible justification for the drive to Durham but clearly there are others who seem to disagree with your assessment. I agree about the trip to the Castle. I think the police should be looking into it and speaking to Cummings and issuing a fine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 11:33:39 AM
I think lots of members of the public were exercising their own judgement- I know I was.
Well I suspect you are in a minority - I think  most people accepted the rules and followed them - they didn't take a decision as to whether an individual rule applied to them because it was inconvenient, or horrible unpalatable.

I stayed with my dying mother-in-law for hours each day during lockdown down because she was alone in her home. When my husband and I left another of his siblings took over for a few hours.
But you have said this is because your mother in law was genuinely vulnerable (in the guidance terms) and had lost her care options, as her carer had been hospitalised and I presume you weren't symptomatic while traveling. That eventuality is within the guidance and is entirely different from the 4-year old who had not lost his care options - both his parents were available and at no time were both of them so ill that they couldn't look after him. And they were in self isolation, not lock-down - the rules on the former are, obviously, much stricter than the latter.

We didn’t visit my aunt in hospital (my mother-in-law’s primary carer) because the hospital would not allow visitors due to lockdown. I saw lots of neighbours on VE Day exercising their own judgements. Which is probably why there are many of us who don’t feel betrayed.
Many more do however - have you actually seen the polling on the issue - it is vitriolic and across the political spectrum.

The most recent shows that by 80% (did) to 9% (did not) people think he did break the rules. By 82% to 9% the public think he should apologise, by 78% to 8% people don't believe he drove to Barnard Castle to check his eyesight etc etc.

So you may frequent a bubble out of touch with public opinion on the matter, but most of us here don't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 11:37:46 AM
You have not seen credible justification for the drive to Durham but clearly there are others who seem to disagree with your assessment.
The public have all seen same justification and by an overwhelming majority (about 80% to 9%) they agree with me that he broke the rules, i.e. there was no credible justification for the trip.

I agree about the trip to the Castle. I think the police should be looking into it and speaking to Cummings and issuing a fine.
The Police are looking into it, but that isn't the end to it - this a matter of misconduct in his public office role - if he broke his own rules he needs to resign or be sacked from that office.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 12:39:37 PM
Well I suspect you are in a minority - I think  most people accepted the rules and followed them - they didn't take a decision as to whether an individual rule applied to them because it was inconvenient, or horrible unpalatable.
We'll have to see the surveys on how strictly the public were following the rules. There were some rules that were followed strictly -  for example not visiting care homes or dying relatives as the care home or hospital staff would not allow it, but I suspect there were some rules being broken especially when it came to social distancing when going into shops or dropping off food to elderly parents and standing 2m away to chat to them or people leaving home to run errands. I have fasted during Ramadan for over 25 years, therefore I know our bodies can function well without food and water for long periods of the day - in fact I dusted, vacuumed and cleaned the whole house the day before Eid while fasting. Yet lots of people have been exercising their judgement to leave the house to buy food they could easily do without even though the rules state only leave the house to buy essential supplies. Lots of people stating they have put on weight during lockdown.

On VE day neighbours bringing chairs and sitting on other people's driveways sharing wine and food at a distance of 2m...apart from refills of food and drink. The kids and I were fasting so could not partake but we were standing on the pavement outside a neighbour's house chatting to everyone. Neighbours from the top of the road wandered down to our end to chat at a distance of 2 m (most of the time). We wandered back with them to their end of the roadto be introduced or say hello to other neighbours. Not sure - was any of that adhering to lockdown rules? 
 
Quote
But you have said this is because your mother in law was genuinely vulnerable (in the guidance terms) and had lost her care options, as she had been hospitalised.
I'm not sure. She was dying - carers came into the house 3 times a day for about 10 or 15 mins to see to her personal needs - they had access to a key.  Possibly the only useful thing we could have done was call the District Nurse to administer morphine if she appeared to be in distress during the process of dying. Obviously we did not want her to die alone and we did not want her to die and not be discovered for hours. She was mostly sleeping and would occasionally appear to half-open her eyes and she would sometimes move her hands but was not responsive as far as I could tell - she would appear to look at us sometimes but no idea if she registered who we were. Her breathing was laboured sometimes and shallow sometimes. Were we providing care or making ourselves feel better - I don't know. We all took shifts - was it essential that we all took turns? I remember when she stopped eating and drinking while still relatively alert and responding to us, the doctor said she was not in discomfort and they would not administer IV fluids as that was just briefly prolonging the inevitable and would be for our benefit so we would feel better that she was not appearing to be starving to death before our eyes.

Quote
That eventuality is within the guidance and is entirely different from the 4-year old who had not lost his care options - both his parents were available and at no time were both of them so ill that they couldn't look after him. And they were in self isolation, not lock-down - the rules on the former are, obviously, much stricter than the latter.
The carefully crafted story according to Cummings is that they were not in self-isolation at the time of the drive to Durham. The issue hinges on whether preventative measures such as driving to Durham is reasonable. Cummings and some Tory cabinet ministers seem to think it was reasonable. I think it was reasonable if they thought there was no one in London they felt close enough to who they could reasonably ask to risk their health and disrupt their lives for 2 weeks by taking on child-care of a potentially infectious child. In a liberal Parliamentary democracy, who should determine whether it was reasonable? The Press, the public, the police?
Quote
Many more do however - have you actually seen the polling on the issue - it is vitriolic and across the political spectrum.

The most recent shows that by 80% (did) to 9% (did not) people think he did break the rules. By 82% to 9% the public think he should apologise, by 78% to 8% people don't believe he drove to Barnard Castle to check his eyesight etc etc.

So you may frequent a bubble out of touch with public opinion on the matter, but most of us here don't.
What is the percentage of those polled who think he should be investigated by the police and fined and what is the percentage that think he should resign or be sacked? Also do you have a link to the percentages who are vitriolic? What is the vitriolic?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 12:45:08 PM
We'll have to see the surveys on how strictly the public were following the rules.
Err - the public were not responsible for generating the rules - are you unable to see that if you are the architect of the rules you have a much greater responsibility to abide by those rules as otherwise it undermines the rules for everyone. And, of course, there is the issue of hypocrisy and double standards if you are responsible for rules that the government expects everyone to abide by, yet you break them yourself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on May 27, 2020, 01:06:54 PM
I am just going on your dismissal of those who didn't get to see their loved ones before death who are upset at this as whingers.
Nowhere have I 'dismissed' people or the upset they feel, and I don't think I called people whingers. I don't think I used the word 'whingers', I think I used moaners and nowhere did I dismiss their feelings of upset. What I challenge is their feeling that because they feel that particular way, whatever their particular  circumstances, others have to do what they wish them to do, rather than what those others consider is correct and more beneficial to them in  their personal circumstances. It is as if I should want to stop Dominic Cummings doing what he thinks is the best for his child because I am unable to get out and about because of my blindness. that would be really stupid. Whatever the moral and factual rights and wrongs of Dominic Cummings' behaviour, it would appear that in London his child  could well have been subjected to
harassment. But I do not know.

I have tried to edit that, but I'll leave it as it  is in spite of the repetition.
Quote
As for Gabriella, I would have no problem with her being on an enquiry but you stating that her assessment as rational and impartial seems to me more that you agree with her. So I don't think you are making a rational and impartial statement there.
Wrong assumption. There is much that I have disagreed with gabriella on occasions, and I did notice a minor detail or two which I could have picked up on, but overall I think her posts show a calm, considered and considerate tone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 01:22:12 PM
Err - the public were not responsible for generating the rules - are you unable to see that if you are the architect of the rules you have a much greater responsibility to abide by those rules as otherwise it undermines the rules for everyone. And, of course, there is the issue of hypocrisy and double standards if you are responsible for rules that the government expects everyone to abide by, yet you break them yourself.
Yes I can certainly see that Cummings should have abided by the rules and not driven to the Castle in breach of the rules and yes I can see the hypocrisy of breaking the rules. I can also see that if Boris thinks he really needs him, he is not going to sack him regardless of the hypocrisy if he thinks his government will survive this.

If Cummings, and not the public, was responsible for generating the rules, presumably Cummings determined that the rules he generated allowed him to drive to Durham to prevent harm to his son, even if that harm was an anticipated harm that had not yet crystallised but had a reasonable probability of occurring in the near future.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 01:30:51 PM
If Cummings, and not the public, was responsible for generating the rules, presumably Cummings determined that the rules he generated allowed him to drive to Durham ...
Indeed, because he felt that the rules didn't apply to him, only to the plebs. Not going to let some pesky lock down rules ruin a nice trip out for his wife's birthday to a well know (but not local) beauty spot.

One rule for the elite, another for everyone else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on May 27, 2020, 01:34:55 PM
On the subject of distancing, it could well be said that I have not kept exactly to the right distance. The Age Concern lady who does my shopping for me carries the bags through to the kitchen and takes everything out of the bags. During the time she is in my house, the distance between us can easily be closer than 2 metres. However, I do not worry about that. The instances of covid 19 hereabouts is very low and being a quite long-term volunteer for Age Concern, she is well aware of how to be careful.

From the time of her visit yesterday until the next time she comes, I shall not be anywhere near any other person, so if by some remote chance I have caught covid 19 from her or any of the food packaging - which I certainly wasn't going to wipe every surface of -  then I shall not pass it on to anyone. I realise that I am lucky compared with some of the difficulties other blind people are coping with, according to In Touch yesterday, but not having my reader or my cleaner coming is making life difficult.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 01:35:24 PM
... to prevent harm to his son, even if that harm was an anticipated harm that had not yet crystallised but had a reasonable probability of occurring in the near future.
What harm - there was no harm at the time he made the decision, the possible scenario of both parents at the same time being unable to look after their son never happened and Cummings would have know from the stats that it was very unlikely to happen.

And even if we accept the hypothetical risk (compared to the real risk of driving 260 miles with symptoms) all possible solutions that didn't not require them to break self isolation should have been exhausted before contemplating driving 260 miles. They weren't.

If Cummings and Wakefield were so confident that what they did was right, why did Wakefield fail to mention the midnight 260 mile journey in her article. Why did the news items about Cummings being ill fail to mention that he was in Durham and instead implied he was 'at home'.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 01:53:03 PM
Indeed, because he felt that the rules didn't apply to him, only to the plebs. Not going to let some pesky lock down rules ruin a nice trip out for his wife's birthday to a well know (but not local) beauty spot.

One rule for the elite, another for everyone else.
Or his exercise of his judgement to drive to Durham for child-care was reasonable for both him and the general public - if members of the public had similar child care concerns and had used their judgement to interpret the statements made by Jenny Harries as allowing them to drive for child-care. I guess we'll find out when we have more information from the people who made the rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 02:15:12 PM
What harm - there was no harm at the time he made the decision, the possible scenario of both parents at the same time being unable to look after their son never happened and Cummings would have know from the stats that it was very unlikely to happen.

And even if we accept the hypothetical risk (compared to the real risk of driving 260 miles with symptoms) all possible solutions that didn't not require them to break self isolation should have been exhausted before contemplating driving 260 miles. They weren't.
The story is that neither of them were displaying Covid-19 symptoms at the time of the drive to Durham - no continuous cough or temperature so no need to self-isolate until symptoms appeared.

Quote
If Cummings and Wakefield were so confident that what they did was right, why did Wakefield fail to mention the midnight 260 mile journey in her article. Why did the news items about Cummings being ill fail to mention that he was in Durham and instead implied he was 'at home'.
Could be any number of reasons including the one you are speculating about. It could be that they did not fancy drawing the attention of the Twitter Mob, social-media trolls and fair-minded tabloid Press (famous for not making things up) to Cummings' parents' farm. Cummings might be fair game but his parents and sister and nieces presumably weren't.

Hiding things is a natural consequence of having online social media and journalists -  as much as thinking that people are interested in someone else's every movement or thinking that others are interested in every thought that pops into someone else's brain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 02:17:31 PM
Or his exercise of his judgement to drive to Durham for child-care was reasonable for both him and the general public - if members of the public had similar child care concerns and had used their judgement to interpret the statements made by Jenny Harries as allowing them to drive for child-care. I guess we'll find out when we have more information from the people who made the rules.
And indeed they did and quite a few were fined as we discovered yesterday.

Stop reinventing what others say - Jenny Harries did not say you were allowed to drive for child care (trust me as someone who owns a childcare business I think I'm pretty clued up on what was and was not allowed for child-care). No - under exceptional circumstances where there was a safeguarding concern you may be allowed to leave your house - that is what the rules allowed.

And these were not exceptional circumstances, there was no safeguarding concern and even if there were degree of proportionality would apply - on other words finding the solution that most closely maintained the self isolation restrictions - that would not be drive 260 miles.

And even in Jenny Harries most recent post-Cummings reinterpretation of the advice she gives no comfort to Cummings as her example relates to a child who is 'significantly unwell and has no support' (her very words) - in what way does that apply to the Cummings situation - it doesn't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 02:19:20 PM
On the subject of distancing, it could well be said that I have not kept exactly to the right distance. The Age Concern lady who does my shopping for me carries the bags through to the kitchen and takes everything out of the bags. During the time she is in my house, the distance between us can easily be closer than 2 metres. However, I do not worry about that. The instances of covid 19 hereabouts is very low and being a quite long-term volunteer for Age Concern, she is well aware of how to be careful.

From the time of her visit yesterday until the next time she comes, I shall not be anywhere near any other person, so if by some remote chance I have caught covid 19 from her or any of the food packaging - which I certainly wasn't going to wipe every surface of -  then I shall not pass it on to anyone. I realise that I am lucky compared with some of the difficulties other blind people are coping with, according to In Touch yesterday, but not having my reader or my cleaner coming is making life difficult.
Must be really tough for you Susan - I am missing my cleaner, who came ad-hoc when I needed her, which was usually every 2 or 3 weeks, but at least I can clean and she had not been to my house for a few weeks before lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 02:22:33 PM
The story is that neither of them were displaying Covid-19 symptoms at the time of the drive to Durham - no continuous cough or temperature so no need to self-isolate until symptoms appeared.
I don't believe that is true - both Wakefield and Cummings in different responses at different times (both before and after the story broke) believed that Wakefield might have COVID-19 due to her being unwell - therefore self isolation kicked in at the moment symptoms developed - at that point the rules required Wakefield to self isolate and not leave her home (in Islington) and for anyone else in the household (including Cummings and the child) to self isolate and not leave the home for 14 days unless symptoms developed in which case self isolation could end 7 days after appearance of symptoms.

But even if the didn't think they were under self isolation (I think it is pretty clear they did), then they were definitely under lock down and none of the reasons to leave the house under lock down apply to their 260 mile journey.

So it really matters not whether they were under self isolation or lock down - they still broke the rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 02:26:36 PM
Hiding things is a natural consequence of having online social media and journalists -  as much as thinking that people are interested in someone else's every movement or thinking that others are interested in every thought that pops into someone else's brain.
There is a fine line between hiding things and downright lying. You can argue that failing to mention a 260 trip to Durham is just hiding things (I think most of us understand why she didn't want to mention it, proved right with the furious response when the story broke), but how about.

But how about Wakefield's claim that Cummings was bed ridden for 10 days solid, while Cummings said he drove to the hospital in the middle of that period - one of them must be lying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on May 27, 2020, 02:37:40 PM
Jenrick's a smarmy looking fuckpiece.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 02:43:49 PM
And indeed they did and quite a few were fined as we discovered yesterday.

Stop reinventing what others say - Jenny Harries did not say you were allowed to drive for child care (trust me as someone who owns a childcare business I think I'm pretty clued up on what was and was not allowed for child-care). No - under exceptional circumstances where there was a safeguarding concern you may be allowed to leave your house - that is what the rules allowed.
Got any links to specifics? I would need details before forming an opinion. Also, given the number of times we disagree on here why would I trust you?

Quote
And these were not exceptional circumstances, there was no safeguarding concern and even if there were degree of proportionality would apply - on other words finding the solution that most closely maintained the self isolation restrictions - that would not be drive 260 miles.
Prevention of harm is also a reason to break lockdown rules. They weren't required to self-isolate when they drove up to Durham as they weren't displaying symptoms. Let's wait for the investigation to determine what was reasonable. Who is carrying out an investigation Who gets to decide these issues?

Quote
And even in Jenny Harries most recent post-Cummings reinterpretation of the advice she gives no comfort to Cummings as her example relates to a child who is 'significantly unwell and has no support' (her very words) - in what way does that apply to the Cummings situation - it doesn't.
Given your history of selective quoting on here I won't take your word for it that this is all she said.

I have a feeling of deja vu. This reminds of our discussion in the Alex Salmond case where I kept saying let's wait for the courts to determine the issue as we don't have sufficient information and you were insistent that Salmond asking for a judicial review of the disciplinary process investigation against him was an abuse of his power. http://www.religionethics.co.uk/index.php?topic=16041.275
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 02:49:37 PM
Prevention of harm is also a reason to break lockdown rules.
What harm - if Wakefield and Cummings can leave lock down while their child is in a house with one ill parent and on well parent, due to potential (not actual) harm, then surely anyone with a kid could do so - perhaps to prevent the kids killing each other. Ok everyones getting a bit hot under the collar - could be harm, yup lets prevent that harm - quick trip to the country 260 miles away - yup that should do the trick.

And at that point, surely the only potential harm was the child catching the illness - how does traveling for six hours in a confined car - prevent that harm. Surely it would exacerbate it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 02:53:58 PM
I don't believe that is true - both Wakefield and Cummings in different responses at different times (both before and after the story broke) believed that Wakefield might have COVID-19 due to her being unwell - therefore self isolation kicked in at the moment symptoms developed - at that point the rules required Wakefield to self isolate and not leave her home (in Islington) and for anyone else in the household (including Cummings and the child) to self isolate and not leave the home for 14 days unless symptoms developed in which case self isolation could end 7 days after appearance of symptoms.
Symptoms developing is a matter of fact - either they did or they didn't. Vomiting is not a symptom of Covid-19 therefore symptoms had not developed.

Yes you can think you might have Covid-19 without having the symptoms but the requirement to isolate is dependent on actually having symptoms not based on speculation.

Quote
But even if the didn't think they were under self isolation (I think it is pretty clear they did), then they were definitely under lock down and none of the reasons to leave the house under lock down apply to their 260 mile journey.

So it really matters not whether they were under self isolation or lock down - they still broke the rules.
Let's wait for the outcome of any investigation. Who determines whether they did or they didn't break the rules? I think we can agree that it's not you that determines this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 02:56:15 PM
Got any links to specifics? I would need details before forming an opinion. Also, given the number of times we disagree on here why would I trust you?
Yes the rules around schools, nurseries and other child-care providers remaining open for the children of key workers (if and only if they cannot be looked after at him) - and indeed that key workers are specifically allowed to break lock down to take their child to that designated child-care (and can be placed at an appropriate setting by the relevant local authority).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 02:57:02 PM
What harm - if Wakefield and Cummings can leave lock down while their child is in a house with one ill parent and on well parent, due to potential (not actual) harm, then surely anyone with a kid could do so - perhaps to prevent the kids killing each other. Ok everyones getting a bit hot under the collar - could be harm, yup lets prevent that harm - quick trip to the country 260 miles away - yup that should do the trick.
Let's wait for the outcome of any investigation to determine this. Who gets to decide? I think we've established that it's not you.

Quote
And at that point, surely the only potential harm was the child catching the illness - how does traveling for six hours in a confined car - prevent that harm. Surely it would exacerbate it.
Let's wait for the outcome of an investigation to determine of that was the only potential harm. I'm fairly certain it's not you that gets to determine this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 02:59:51 PM
Yes the rules around schools, nurseries and other child-care providers remaining open for the children of key workers (if and only if they cannot be looked after at him) - and indeed that key workers are specifically allowed to break lock down to take their child to that designated child-care (and can be placed at an appropriate setting by the relevant local authority).
No I meant links to people being fined for breaching lockdown because they behaved in a similar way to the Cummings when they faced similar child-care issues.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 03:04:18 PM
Symptoms developing is a matter of fact - either they did or they didn't. Vomiting is not a symptom of Covid-19 therefore symptoms had not developed.
Both Wakefield and Cummings believed her symptoms may be COVID-19. At that point you will be required to self isolate until or unless information is forthcoming to the contrary (in other words clinical advice from 111 or a negative test). For obvious reasons you don't work on best case scenarios but on worse case scenarios.

Wakefield in her piece is convinced that she had the disease - she even starts her piece by talking about the different experiences people had:

"My version of the virus started with a nasty headache and a grubby feeling of unease after which I threw up ... "

She thought she had the virus - therefore she needed to self isolate from that moment on.

Cummings thought so too:
"She was ill, she might have Covid "
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on May 27, 2020, 03:08:28 PM

- this a matter of misconduct in his public office role - if he broke his own rules he needs to resign or be sacked from that office.

Is he in a "public office" or is he an employee of the Conservative Party?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 03:18:22 PM
Is he in a "public office" or is he an employee of the Conservative Party?
He is in a public office as he is the chief advisor to the PM - that is a government appointment not a Conservative party one. He is, in effect, a part of the civil service, hence there was a load of discussion about whether he was actually allowed to make the statement he did on Monday and whether this was a breach of the civil service code.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 03:54:03 PM
Both Wakefield and Cummings believed her symptoms may be COVID-19. At that point you will be required to self isolate until or unless information is forthcoming to the contrary (in other words clinical advice from 111 or a negative test). For obvious reasons you don't work on best case scenarios but on worse case scenarios.

Wakefield in her piece is convinced that she had the disease - she even starts her piece by talking about the different experiences people had:

"My version of the virus started with a nasty headache and a grubby feeling of unease after which I threw up ... "

She thought she had the virus - therefore she needed to self isolate from that moment on.

Cummings thought so too:
"She was ill, she might have Covid "
My husband and I believed that he had contracted Covid-19 when he returned from abroad as I heard him coughing occasionally and he had been at a cricket match where one of the spectators he had been in the vicinity of had tested positive for Covid-19. But then again it's an annual cricket match and he always comes home with a cough or a hoarse voice from all the dust and the shouting.

So anyway, I thought we may all have to self-isolate and I was worried that he had the virus.  Then I looked up the symptoms and realised that it needed to be a continuous cough to be considered a symptom - “coughing a lot for more than an hour, or three or more coughing episodes in 24 hours”. He did not have those symptoms so that was the end of any self-isolating. Regardless of what I thought or feared there wasn't any evidence as we did not have the accepted symptoms. There may be all kinds of people who believe that they had the virus but never had the required symptoms of high temperature or continuous cough. I think BHS has something to say about beliefs just being guesses and that they should not be taken as fact.

My body felt a bit achy for a day and my mind sometimes starts wondering if I had had the virus but despite the wanderings of my mind I never had any symptoms of the virus. Until I am tested I guess I will never know.

In Wakefield's case, sure as a journalist she can write an article after she recovered claiming she had the virus because the symptoms of the virus (high temperature) eventually developed but were not there on the day she first started thinking that she may have the virus. So on that first day of no generally accepted symptoms of Covid-19 she was not required to self-isolate. Once she developed the generally accepted symptoms of Covid-19 - a high temperature - she was required to self-isolate.

Also, Cummings' father apparently informed the police in Durham when Cummings arrived from London - if that's true and the police in Durham have confirmed this - the police have had an opportunity to investigate further. What was the outcome of their investigation? Who gets to decide if Cummings has broken the rules? I think we've established that it's not you that gets to decide. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 27, 2020, 04:06:54 PM
Nowhere have I 'dismissed' people or the upset they feel, and I don't think I called people whingers. I don't think I used the word 'whingers', I think I used moaners and nowhere did I dismiss their feelings of upset. What I challenge is their feeling that because they feel that particular way, whatever their particular  circumstances, others have to do what they wish them to do, rather than what those others consider is correct and more beneficial to them in  their personal circumstances. It is as if I should want to stop Dominic Cummings doing what he thinks is the best for his child because I am unable to get out and about because of my blindness. that would be really stupid. Whatever the moral and factual rights and wrongs of Dominic Cummings' behaviour, it would appear that in London his child  could well have been subjected to
harassment. But I do not know.

I have tried to edit that, but I'll leave it as it  is in spite of the repetition. Wrong assumption. There is much that I have disagreed with gabriella on occasions, and I did notice a minor detail or two which I could have picked up on, but overall I think her posts show a calm, considered and considerate tone.
In your Reply 2201 you refer to whingers. Not that I see much difference between that and 'moaners' . They believe they were following the rules and Cummings wasn't. It's not about their feelings it's about whether the rules as laid out by the govt were followed by a leading civil servant who wrote those rules. And you think they are just moaning and can be dismissed.

And you don't get to just assert that you are not biased as you have done here. We all are. If there was a Inquiry and you were told both Gabriella and Prof Davey were to be on it would you feel happier about Gabriella, If so, why?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 04:13:26 PM
My husband and I believed that he had contracted Covid-19 when he returned from abroad as I heard him coughing occasionally and he had been at a cricket match where one of the spectators he had been in the vicinity of had tested positive for Covid-19. But then again it's an annual cricket match and he always comes home with a cough or a hoarse voice from all the dust and the shouting.
Clearly pre-lock down so not really relevant, but none-the-less.

So anyway, I thought we may all have to self-isolate and I was worried that he had the virus.  Then I looked up the symptoms and realised that it needed to be a continuous cough to be considered a symptom - “coughing a lot for more than an hour, or three or more coughing episodes in 24 hours”. He did not have those symptoms so that was the end of any self-isolating. Regardless of what I thought or feared there wasn't any evidence as we did not have the accepted symptoms. There may be all kinds of people who believe that they had the virus but never had the required symptoms of high temperature or continuous cough. I think BHS has something to say about beliefs just being guesses and that they should not be taken as fact.
Sure, but until or unless you'd verified through a reasonable route (e.g. 111) that you did not need to self isolate you are expected to work on the basis of worse case scenarios, so to self isolate until released as it were.

In Wakefield's case, sure as a journalist she can write an article after she recovered claiming she had the virus because the symptoms of the virus (high temperature) eventually developed but were not there on the day she first started thinking that she may have the virus. So on that first day of no generally accepted symptoms of Covid-19 she was not required to self-isolate. Once she developed the generally accepted symptoms of Covid-19 - a high temperature - she was required to self-isolate.
Unless she and Cummings are both simply lying it is clear that they both believed she may have COVID-19 so they needed to self isolate until they'd ascertained that it was not necessary.

And as I keep pointing out it makes no odds whether they were self isolating or just in lock-down - a 260 mile journey was against the rules even if they were in lock down rather than self isolation.

Also, Cummings' father apparently informed the police in Durham when Cummings arrived from London - if that's true and the police in Durham have confirmed this - the police have had an opportunity to investigate further. What was the outcome of their investigation? Who gets to decide if Cummings has broken the rules? I think we've established that it's not you that gets to decide.
The police are investigating further. We know the police provided advice at the time - I don't think it has been revealed what advice they gave. But remember the police have discretion - if they see that rules or laws have been broken, at their discretion, they may choose to prosecute, fine, advise or do nothing. That the police chose not to fine anyone does not mean that they did not consider that Cummings had broken the rules.

But there are two elements to this - firstly whether under the law the police might get involved - but there is the point about his position. It is extremely common for someone to be sacked from a role, or be asked to resign with having broken a law in police terms - because the rules around professional conduct are very different to the criminal or civil law.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 04:31:09 PM
And besides the rules require self isolation if you have been in close contact with someone who had subsequently tested positive for coronavirus.

The PM tested positive on the 26th March - Cummings knew about this before Wakefield became ill - from his statement:

'Around midnight on Thursday, the 26th of March, I spoke to the prime minister. He told me that he tested positive for Covid.'

'The next morning, I went to work as usual. I was in a succession of meetings about this emergency. I suddenly got a call from my wife who was at home looking after our four year old child. She told me she suddenly felt badly ill.'

'At this point, most of those who I work with most closely, including the prime minister himself and others who sit within 15 feet of me every day, either had had symptoms and had returned to work or were absent with symptoms.'

Under the rules Cummings needed to self isolate because he had been in regular close contact with a person who had tested positive with the virus. In fact by going into 'work as usual' - he broke the rules yet again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 04:57:28 PM
Clearly pre-lock down so not really relevant, but none-the-less.
Both before and during. He came back into the country on 18th March and lockdown was from 23 March. He had the cough during lockdown and so I looked up the symptoms on the internet and determined that he was not displaying any of the accepted symptoms.
Quote
Sure, but until or unless you'd verified through a reasonable route (e.g. 111) that you did not need to self isolate you are expected to work on the basis of worse case scenarios, so to self isolate until released as it were.
Not sure where you are getting that from? If you do not have the accepted symptoms you were not required to self-isolate.
Quote
Unless she and Cummings are both simply lying it is clear that they both believed she may have COVID-19 so they needed to self isolate until they'd ascertained that it was not necessary.
Where does it say that on the NHS website? I looked it up at the time and the NHS website said call 111 if you have the following symptoms of coronavirus - new continuous cough, high temperature - and you will be advised what to do. It did not say anything about assuming the worst even if you do not have the accepted symptoms and self-isolating until you can get through to the NHS.

Also while my aunt was busy puking continuously while lying on her floor moaning from severe abdominal pain, I called 111 and there was a recorded message that said there would be a wait of at least 1 hour before I would get through to speak to someone, So think it is a bad idea to advise people to phone 111 about coronavirus unless they actually have symptoms as I don't think 111 are coping with the current call volumes.

I decided not to wait for an hour to speak to someone. I spoke to a relative who was a doctor. He said he could not diagnose anything over the phone as to why she could be puking and shouting in pain so I asked my husband to drop me and my aunt off at A&E instead.
Quote
And as I keep pointing out it makes no odds whether they were self isolating or just in lock-down - a 260 mile journey was against the rules even if they were in lock down rather than self isolation.
The police are investigating further. We know the police provided advice at the time - I don't think it has been revealed what advice they gave. But remember the police have discretion - if they see that rules or laws have been broken, at their discretion, they may choose to prosecute, fine, advise or do nothing. That the police chose not to fine anyone does not mean that they did not consider that Cummings had broken the rules.
So currently we have no view from the police whether Cummings broke the rules. Ok so let's wait for the police to comment on that even if they choose not to fine him.

Quote
But there are two elements to this - firstly whether under the law the police might get involved - but there is the point about his position. It is extremely common for someone to be sacked from a role, or be asked to resign with having broken a law in police terms - because the rules around professional conduct are very different to the criminal or civil law.
So currently we have no view from the police whether Cummings broke the rules. I assume you meant in your above comment that someone can be asked to resign without breaking the law. So who determines whether the rules of professional conduct have been breached in this situation and that Cummings should be asked to resign?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 04:59:58 PM
And besides the rules require self isolation if you have been in close contact with someone who had subsequently tested positive for coronavirus.

The PM tested positive on the 26th March - Cummings knew about this before Wakefield became ill - from his statement:

'Around midnight on Thursday, the 26th of March, I spoke to the prime minister. He told me that he tested positive for Covid.'

'The next morning, I went to work as usual. I was in a succession of meetings about this emergency. I suddenly got a call from my wife who was at home looking after our four year old child. She told me she suddenly felt badly ill.'

'At this point, most of those who I work with most closely, including the prime minister himself and others who sit within 15 feet of me every day, either had had symptoms and had returned to work or were absent with symptoms.'

Under the rules Cummings needed to self isolate because he had been in regular close contact with a person who had tested positive with the virus. In fact by going into 'work as usual' - he broke the rules yet again.
No - the advice at the time was if you have been in contact with someone who tested positive and you are showing any of the accepted symptoms of Covid-19, you should self-isolate.

ETA: I have checked and the advice was contact 111 if you have been in close contact with someone who has tested positive and you will be advised what to do. You will probably be advised to self-isolate. So on that basis - everyone who had been in close contact with Boris should have contacted 111 to see if they should be self-isolating once he tested positive.

The question then goes back to whether Cummings acted reasonably by travelling to Durham for childcare reasons when he should have possibly be self-isolating.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 05:28:25 PM
No - the advice at the time was if you have been in contact with someone who tested positive and you are showing any of the accepted symptoms of Covid-19, you should self-isolate.
I don't believe that is the case - and besides it makes no sense as you have to self isolate if you have symptoms, so the issue of being in contact with someone tasing positive is moot.

From:

https://www.cipd.co.uk/news-views/coronavirus/faqs/employees-self-isolating-symptoms

'Q: One of our workers has been confirmed as having the virus, should we close the workplace?

Where a worker has the virus the position is as follows:

A worker with a confirmed diagnosis should stay at home with immediate effect and employers should advise them to follow the Government's self-isolation advice and apply for a test.
If a worker has symptoms, however mild, or is in a household where someone has symptoms, they should self-isolate, as should all in their household. These people should not leave their house or go to work and employers should advise them to follow the latest government advice.
Whether the workplace should be closed entirely is not addressed in the Government advice and it appears employers will have to make that decision.

Staff who were exposed to the infected colleague should be sent home. Government advice states those who have been in recent close contact with an infected person should self-isolate, breaking the transmission chain.'

My emphasis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 05:31:05 PM
I don't believe that is the case - and besides it makes no sense as you have to self isolate if you have symptoms, so the issue of being in contact with someone tasing positive is moot.

From:

https://www.cipd.co.uk/news-views/coronavirus/faqs/employees-self-isolating-symptoms

'Q: One of our workers has been confirmed as having the virus, should we close the workplace?

Where a worker has the virus the position is as follows:

A worker with a confirmed diagnosis should stay at home with immediate effect and employers should advise them to follow the Government's self-isolation advice and apply for a test.
If a worker has symptoms, however mild, or is in a household where someone has symptoms, they should self-isolate, as should all in their household. These people should not leave their house or go to work and employers should advise them to follow the latest government advice.
Whether the workplace should be closed entirely is not addressed in the Government advice and it appears employers will have to make that decision.

Staff who were exposed to the infected colleague should be sent home. Government advice states those who have been in recent close contact with an infected person should self-isolate, breaking the transmission chain.'

My emphasis.
I just edited my previous post above. I agree with you. See my post above.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on May 27, 2020, 05:36:58 PM
This goes way beyond the usual 'whingers and moaners' (whoever they may be).
You might have noticed that I did not specify at all any particular moaner or any particular story, and that was a deliberate choice in order not to pinpoint one person.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 27, 2020, 05:40:39 PM
You might have noticed that I did not specify at all any particular moaner or any particular story, and that was a deliberate choice in order not to pinpoint one person.
Which then generalised it to cover everyone including those who have been prevented from being with their loved ones as they died.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 27, 2020, 05:42:40 PM
No - the advice at the time was if you have been in contact with someone who tested positive and you are showing any of the accepted symptoms of Covid-19, you should self-isolate.

ETA: I have checked and the advice was contact 111 if you have been in close contact with someone who has tested positive and you will be advised what to do. You will probably be advised to self-isolate. So on that basis - everyone who had been in close contact with Boris should have contacted 111 to see if they should be self-isolating once he tested positive.

The question then goes back to whether Cummings acted reasonably by travelling to Durham for childcare reasons when he should have possibly be self-isolating.
On the guidance at the time and since, obviously no. Harries talked about it as being a matter of life and death. This obviously was not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 05:45:22 PM
No - the advice at the time was if you have been in contact with someone who tested positive and you are showing any of the accepted symptoms of Covid-19, you should self-isolate.

ETA: I have checked and the advice was contact 111 if you have been in close contact with someone who has tested positive and you will be advised what to do. You will probably be advised to self-isolate. So on that basis - everyone who had been in close contact with Boris should have contacted 111 to see if they should be self-isolating once he tested positive.

The question then goes back to whether Cummings acted reasonably by travelling to Durham for childcare reasons when he should have possibly be self-isolating.
Thanks for accepting that I was correct - your lines of argument are one, by one, disappearing.

To have acted reasonably in leaving the house when self isolating (or under lock down) he would need to demonstrate that he had exhausted all avenues to look after the child safely without leaving the house, and to demonstrate that the journey he took was a proportionate response in terms of relative risk (to the child vs to the broader population on public health grounds).

Given that the most obvious route for childcare - the parent's looking after him, remained the case throughout he'd have to argue that although him and his wife were well enough to look after the child in Durham they would have been too ill to look after him in their home in Islington to be acting reasonably. How could they possibly do that?

Their actions were neither reasonable (there were demonstrably other options available that wouldn't require them to leave the house - namely looking after the child while self isolating in Islington). Nor were they proportionate - were they to have had to leave the house proportionality would dictate as short a journey as possible - if only they had family close, perhaps a couple of miles away - oh yes she has a choice of two brothers.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 05:47:54 PM
On the guidance at the time and since, obviously no. Harries talked about it as being a matter of life and death. This obviously was not.
Indeed and she was clearly talking about vulnerable children (Cummings son, as far as I'm aware isn't one) and safeguarding - as far as I'm aware there were no safeguarding issues.

Heaven help us if we end up in a situation where two parents potentially getting ill with a disease that for most people of Cummings and Wakefield's age produces no more than mild symptoms becomes a safeguarding issue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 05:58:37 PM
I think this section of Wakefield's account is the most telling in terms of the decision they made that very evening:

'That evening as I lay on the sofa a happy thought occurred to me. If this was the virus then my husband who works 16 hour days as a rule would have to come home. I let myself imagine a fortnight in bed with mild symptoms chatting to Dom and son through an open door. More fool me. My husband did rush home to look after me, he's an extremely kind man whatever people assume to the contrary'

What we now know is that very evening they drove to Durham. Don't forget she wrote this before the story of the Durham trip broke.

Frankly (in Occam's razor sense) the most obvious conclusion here is that they decided that self isolating in rural Durham would be altogether more pleasant experience than in cramped Islington. Not an unreasonable 'instinct' but completely against the rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 07:00:30 PM
Thanks for accepting that I was correct - your lines of argument are one, by one, disappearing.

To have acted reasonably in leaving the house when self isolating (or under lock down) he would need to demonstrate that he had exhausted all avenues to look after the child safely without leaving the house, and to demonstrate that the journey he took was a proportionate response in terms of relative risk (to the child vs to the broader population on public health grounds).

Given that the most obvious route for childcare - the parent's looking after him, remained the case throughout he'd have to argue that although him and his wife were well enough to look after the child in Durham they would have been too ill to look after him in their home in Islington to be acting reasonably. How could they possibly do that?

Their actions were neither reasonable (there were demonstrably other options available that wouldn't require them to leave the house - namely looking after the child while self isolating in Islington). Nor were they proportionate - were they to have had to leave the house proportionality would dictate as short a journey as possible - if only they had family close, perhaps a couple of miles away - oh yes she has a choice of two brothers.
Yes you were correct that Cummings would have to isolate based on Boris testing positive.

Cummings was arguing that he thought he and his wife might become too sick to look after the 4 year old as his wife had felt unable to look after her son after she threw up and Cummings had to drive home to help. He argued that if they both became too sick and they had no child care options in London, it would be exceptional circumstances. I am not sure if there were any other exceptional circumstances that he listed. Who decides on whether that was a reasonable fear or not and whether the circumstances were exceptional?

We have no information on whether Wakefield's brothers were willing and able to look after a 4 year old that could be infected with/ a carrier of Covid-19. If the 4 year-old was in their house and had Covid-19, the whole household would have to self-isolate. We have no information on whether either of the brothers and their households were willing to do that.

Cummings said his sister and nieces were willing to take on the 4 year old if Cummings and his wife both got too sick to look after him, either by one of them staying in the cottage and isolating with them for 14 days, or the child staying and isolating at the sister's house. Cummings said the reasoning was that the 17 year old and 20 year old had a statistically lower risk of becoming seriously ill than someone in their 40s.

Once an investigation is carried out hopefully we will have a definitive answer on whether there were no reasonable child care options in London that Cummings could access and also, as a result, whether Cummings' reasoning and actions in driving 250 miles to Durham to isolate near his sister and nieces were reasonable and proportionate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 27, 2020, 07:05:20 PM
You really can't make this wonderful stuff up. No really the government needs to put itself up for comedy awards. Brilliant.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-daily-testing-figure-announcement-boris-johnson-uk-a9534761.html?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on May 27, 2020, 07:08:32 PM
Cummings and Trump have at least one thing in common, they are liars!

This morning I read a comment by a FB friend who lives in Omskirk where he suggests the Cummings' fiasco has exposed Johnson's poor leadership resulting in the latter's decline in popularity.  Having followed for awhile the similarities between Trump and Johnson, their actions, their lies, their abject lack of concern for the other 98%, his observations give me hope that we'll soon see a similar decline with Trump as well with his rules for us and different rules for everyone else (beneath us.) 

(I'll invite him to this forum.  He's the most excellent, armchair journalist who's been documenting the political arena over there since the Brexit vote passed, and he often comments, accurately, on Trump as well.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 07:17:34 PM
Interesting take on Cummings statement - clearly written word for word by laywers:

https://www.ft.com/video/e82b5a00-3ad5-4d2c-9703-ff14942aa5b1
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 07:17:59 PM
On the guidance at the time and since, obviously no. Harries talked about it as being a matter of life and death. This obviously was not.
Harries said at the Press Conference on Sat 23rd May "government guidance always accounts for ‘safeguarding’ of children who have ‘no support’. She added: ‘There’s always a safeguarding clause in all of the advice. The interpretation of that advice is probably for others.’

Would be good to know the definition of "no support" and who is responsible for the interpretation of what is a safeguarding issue. Who are these "others?"
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 07:21:22 PM
Also worth actually looking at the relevant regulations:

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/regulation/6/made

Really struggling to see how Cummings decision to travel (on either occasion) can be justified with a 'reasonable excuse' in which case it means that it must:

'6.—(1) During the emergency period, no person may leave the place where they are living without reasonable excuse.

(2) For the purposes of paragraph (1), a reasonable excuse includes the need—

(a)to obtain basic necessities, including food and medical supplies for those in the same household (including any pets or animals in the household) or for vulnerable persons and supplies for the essential upkeep, maintenance and functioning of the household, or the household of a vulnerable person, or to obtain money, including from any business listed in Part 3 of Schedule 2;

(b)to take exercise either alone or with other members of their household;

(c)to seek medical assistance, including to access any of the services referred to in paragraph 37 or 38 of Schedule 2;

(d)to provide care or assistance, including relevant personal care within the meaning of paragraph 7(3B) of Schedule 4 to the Safeguarding of Vulnerable Groups Act 2006(1), to a vulnerable person, or to provide emergency assistance;

(e)to donate blood;

(f)to travel for the purposes of work or to provide voluntary or charitable services, where it is not reasonably possible for that person to work, or to provide those services, from the place where they are living;

(g)to attend a funeral of—

(i)a member of the person’s household,

(ii)a close family member, or

(iii)if no-one within sub-paragraphs (i) or (ii) are attending, a friend;

(h)to fulfil a legal obligation, including attending court or satisfying bail conditions, or to participate in legal proceedings;

(i)to access critical public services, including—

(i)childcare or educational facilities (where these are still available to a child in relation to whom that person is the parent, or has parental responsibility for, or care of the child);

(ii)social services;

(iii)services provided by the Department of Work and Pensions;

(iv)services provided to victims (such as victims of crime);

(j)in relation to children who do not live in the same household as their parents, or one of their parents, to continue existing arrangements for access to, and contact between, parents and children, and for the purposes of this paragraph, “parent” includes a person who is not a parent of the child, but who has parental responsibility for, or who has care of, the child;

(k)in the case of a minister of religion or worship leader, to go to their place of worship;

(l)to move house where reasonably necessary;

(m)to avoid injury or illness or to escape a risk of harm.'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 27, 2020, 07:21:46 PM
Harries said at the Press Conference on Sat 23rd May "government guidance always accounts for ‘safeguarding’ of children who have ‘no support’. She added: ‘There’s always a safeguarding clause in all of the advice. The interpretation of that advice is probably for others.’

Would be good to know the definition of "no support" and who is responsible for the interpretation of what is a safeguarding issue. Who are these "others?"
She also said as already covered that breaking lockdown was for a matter of life and death. This was not. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 27, 2020, 07:44:02 PM
She also said as already covered that breaking lockdown was for a matter of life and death. This was not.
I think the safeguarding clause is a red herring as it is a statutory duty on organisations not on members of the public.

So in this context it effectively means that a child can be removed by a public body from an unsafe household under safeguarding obligations - in other words if there is a concern over physical, sexual or emotional abuse or neglect. So a child or vulnerable can leave a household (or rather be removed from it) even if not for any of the reasons under section 6 of the regulations.

I can't really see how it applies in any way to Cummings decision.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 27, 2020, 07:51:10 PM
She also said as already covered that breaking lockdown was for a matter of life and death. This was not.
I did not see where she said that. Do you have a link please?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 27, 2020, 10:21:12 PM
This morning I read a comment by a FB friend who lives in Omskirk where he suggests the Cummings' fiasco has exposed Johnson's poor leadership resulting in the latter's decline in popularity.  Having followed for awhile the similarities between Trump and Johnson, their actions, their lies, their abject lack of concern for the other 98%, his observations give me hope that we'll soon see a similar decline with Trump as well with his rules for us and different rules for everyone else (beneath us.) 

(I'll invite him to this forum.  He's the most excellent, armchair journalist who's been documenting the political arena over there since the Brexit vote passed, and he often comments, accurately, on Trump as well.)
You'd better warn him that the non-beievers on here can be savage!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 27, 2020, 11:30:21 PM
You'd better warn him that the non-beievers on here can be savage!

Is that non-believers in religion or non-believers in equality?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on May 28, 2020, 02:08:24 AM
You'd better warn him that the non-beievers on here can be savage!

No doubt, he'd be fine and likely would never bring out the savage beast in anyone.   ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 28, 2020, 08:33:00 AM
You'd better warn him that the non-beievers on here can be savage!

So can people like you! ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 28, 2020, 11:24:21 AM
Car crash interview with Matt Hancock this morning on the Today programme.

Hancock was banging on about the new track and trace rules - saying it was people's civic duty to do the right thing, that the government would instruct people who had had contact with someone testing positive to stay at home for 14 days even if they had no symptoms themselves.

At which point Nick Robinson asked whether doing your civil duty, doing the right thing, staying at home allowed someone to drive to a beauty spot. Hancock simply had no answer - he blustered and stumbled but simply couldn't answer.

The most corrosive aspect of the whole Cummings affair is its effect on the next stages to deal with the virus. If someone from the government rings you up and tells you to stay at home for 14 days even though you have no symptoms and may not even know who it is you are supposed to have been in contact with - how many will go, thanks, but no thanks - why should I obey the rules and stay at home when Cummings is allowed to break them.

It is a problem - and trust can only be restored by Cummins either falling on his sword or being sacked. While he stays in place the ability of the government to 'instruct' us to do things we really would prefer not to, is critically undermined.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 28, 2020, 11:37:44 AM
Car crash interview with Matt Hancock this morning on the Today programme.

Hancock was banging on about the new track and trace rules - saying it was people's civic duty to do the right thing, that the government would instruct people who had had contact with someone testing positive to stay at home for 14 days even if they had no symptoms themselves.

At which point Nick Robinson asked whether doing your civil duty, doing the right thing, staying at home allowed someone to drive to a beauty spot. Hancock simply had no answer - he blustered and stumbled but simply couldn't answer.

The most corrosive aspect of the whole Cummings affair is its effect on the next stages to deal with the virus. If someone from the government rings you up and tells you to stay at home for 14 days even though you have no symptoms and may not even know who it is you are supposed to have been in contact with - how many will go, thanks, but no thanks - why should I obey the rules and stay at home when Cummings is allowed to break them.

It is a problem - and trust can only be restored by Cummins either falling on his sword or being sacked. While he stays in place the ability of the government to 'instruct' us to do things we really would prefer not to, is critically undermined.

I agree. Cummings screwed up badly and should have to pay the price for doing so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 28, 2020, 11:51:26 AM
I agree. Cummings screwed up badly and should have to pay the price for doing so.
The point is that we will all pay the price - it only involves a relatively small proportion of the population to take a 'sod you - if Cummings can do what he likes, so can I' when instructed to do their civic duty by government to increase virus transmission, illnesses and deaths and also to impact more than necessary on our ability to get the economy and broader society back to normal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 28, 2020, 12:10:47 PM
The point is that we will all pay the price - it only involves a relatively small proportion of the population to take a 'sod you - if Cummings can do what he likes, so can I' when instructed to do their civic duty by government to increase virus transmission, illnesses and deaths and also to impact more than necessary on our ability to get the economy and broader society back to normal.

Questionable whether Cummingsgate would be enough to tip over all the support from the public for measures - that could, if people stop and think, keep them and their relatives safe?

But, looks very much as if the test/track/pretend to isolate system is not actually ready for prime time and might be being pushed now to bury the Cummings story.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-matt-hancock-warns-self-isolating-could-be-mandatory-as-he-laughs-off-dominic-cummings-row-11996005

If it fails to stop infection spikes early on - eg as schools, shops open up, then no-one will have confidence in it later.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 28, 2020, 12:26:14 PM
Questionable whether Cummingsgate would be enough to tip over all the support from the public for measures - that could, if people stop and think, keep them and their relatives safe?
It doesn't need to have a major effect on behaviour to have a major effect on virus transmission sadly.

And I think it will have an effect - not just the 'if Cummings can do it, why can't I' view, but also because in defending Cummings the government has undermined it's own previous line that the rules are clear instructions - they've created confusion and redefined the rules as effectively just a framework around which people can make their own judgments/interpretations etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 28, 2020, 01:06:57 PM
Johnson said Cummings acted "responsibly, legally and with integrity" and the Guardian Live Blog has just reported (via the Torygraph) that "The prime minister’s most senior adviser did breach lockdown rules when he made the 50-mile trip to Barnard Castle, an investigation by Durham police has reportedly found."......and "that the Durham Police investigation has concluded that this was a minor breach of the guidelines that did not warrant any further action."

That does seem like an incongruous mix of opinions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 28, 2020, 01:17:17 PM
Durham police's investigation has found that Cummings did breach the lockdown rules.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/28/dominic-cummings-did-breach-coronavirus-guidelines-durham-police/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 28, 2020, 01:26:52 PM
Car crash interview with Matt Hancock this morning on the Today programme.

Hancock was banging on about the new track and trace rules - saying it was people's civic duty to do the right thing, that the government would instruct people who had had contact with someone testing positive to stay at home for 14 days even if they had no symptoms themselves.

At which point Nick Robinson asked whether doing your civil duty, doing the right thing, staying at home allowed someone to drive to a beauty spot. Hancock simply had no answer - he blustered and stumbled but simply couldn't answer.

The most corrosive aspect of the whole Cummings affair is its effect on the next stages to deal with the virus. If someone from the government rings you up and tells you to stay at home for 14 days even though you have no symptoms and may not even know who it is you are supposed to have been in contact with - how many will go, thanks, but no thanks - why should I obey the rules and stay at home when Cummings is allowed to break them.

It is a problem - and trust can only be restored by Cummins either falling on his sword or being sacked. While he stays in place the ability of the government to 'instruct' us to do things we really would prefer not to, is critically undermined.
I agree with the idea of maintaining a climate of government scrutiny and accountability to stop them becoming complacent. If they thought they could get away with it they would probably do far worse than what they are doing now. So I think it's good to keep holding their feet to the fire. I watched Yvette Cooper grilling Boris yesterday and it was fantastic - she went to the heart of the matter - what is more important to you Prime Minister - the public's health or your loyalty or need for Cummings. However, many others who have questioned Boris and many of the Press who grilled Cummings in the Rose garden did not IMO ask incisive questions that go to what I think is the root of the issue. I think it should be approached from a legality point of view.

I think the issue of how other people who have made sacrifices feel about what Cummings did is a separate political issue. And I think the problem with mixing the 2 is that it allows Boris to dismiss questions as political point-scoring or media spin. I think the drive to Durham is a separate issue from the drive to the Castle - and I am not sure why the police are so slow to give Cummings a fine for driving to the castle. 

I think it becomes very apparent during a major crisis such as WW2 or a smaller crisis such as this pandemic, when many people in the country face a threat to health or life that the people without whom this country would struggle to operate, are the ordinary workers - the transport, procurement and logistics workers, the health workers, public maintenance workers, the scientists, lab technicians etc. Yes certainly those people have a right to say that they worked 16 hour days or even never came home so that their spouse could self-isolate and take care of their small child while also being incapacitated in bed and sleeping for 20 hours a day, so Cummings you and your wife are "pathetic snowflakes". If we could line some of those people up to ask questions that would be great.

Regarding people who were unable to say goodbye to dying relatives - yes you could argue that the rule about unnecessary journeys meant that they did not travel to see their relatives before they died whereas Cummings drove to Durham for childcare. The people who decide on these things - the police, the CPS and the judiciary will have to investigate and make a decision on whether the drive to Durham was reasonable or not. This may take some time as the investigative and judicial process is slow. I see Cummings started the ball rolling with a statement drafted by a lawyer.

It appears that the decision-makers at the top are actually pretty incompetent - lots of bluster but very little substance. Unfortunately, enough of the public seem to become mesmerised by bluster and spin and that's who they vote for and who ends up in government. Maybe the people who are actually competent to run the country have no desire to serve in office and be exposed to the kind of scrutiny that includes Twitter mobs and the Press making stuff up.

Having said that, I find the idea that people would sacrifice their own health and the health of others because Cummings breached the rules somewhat childish. People in public office are often breaching rules - Blair took the whole country to war in Iraq based on dodgy intelligence (and lots of people died and we ended up with ISIS) against what many (Chilcott) consider to be a satisfactory legal basis for going to war, and which Chilcott considered to have undermined the authority of the UN. I am surprised if anyone has any confidence in any government any more. Regardless of what the government does we still have our own standards and morality don't we?

Cummings should be held accountable after investigation. I believe Durham police are looking into it. Whether he gets sacked or not depends on how useful he is to the government. I am a pragmatist - if he is actually more use in office than out because his replacement would be even more incompetent, I am ok with him staying in office even though I dislike the spin and lies etc. We're stuck with Boris during this pandemic due to our FPTP electoral system and the way election campaigns are run and the limited attention span and attention to detail and the beliefs of a significant number of UK voters  - it's a very imperfect system.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 28, 2020, 01:29:35 PM
Durham police's investigation has found that Cummings did breach the lockdown rules.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/28/dominic-cummings-did-breach-coronavirus-guidelines-durham-police/

Good - at least someone in authority has reached a conclusion on the trip to the castle.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 28, 2020, 01:31:36 PM
Cummings should be held accountable after investigation. I believe Durham police are looking into it.
Indeed they are and have concluded their investigation and they have found that Cummings broke the rules when driving to Barnard Castle.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 28, 2020, 01:33:02 PM
Good - at least someone in authority has reached a conclusion on the trip to the castle.
So do you now agree that he should resign or be sacked. It is an untenable position if you are the architect of incredible important rules for public health and then break them yourself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 28, 2020, 01:49:46 PM
Indeed they are and have concluded their investigation and they have found that Cummings broke the rules when driving to Barnard Castle.

But they aren't going to take the matter any further!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 28, 2020, 01:56:46 PM
But they aren't going to take the matter any further!
On the basis that they are not applying retrospective action to anyone later found to be in breach of the regulations and that they wouldn't treat Cummings differently to anyone else (which is absolutely right). The police said that had they stopped him they would have given him a verbal warning and required him to return to the Durham property immediately. Again this was their general approach - their so called 4Es, Engage, Explain Encourage before Enforce. Having given Cummings a warning they would only have taken enforcement action if he failed to comply.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 28, 2020, 01:56:55 PM
So do you now agree that he should resign or be sacked. It is an untenable position if you are the architect of incredible important rules for public health and then break them yourself.
I am indifferent. It's a political issue. From a moral perspective I won't be taking that into consideration when I decide whether I am going to observe lock down / social distancing etc. I will be trying to comply with the rules as best as I can/ am willing/ need to in order to avoid fines - so that I can try to avoid infecting other people or becoming infected myself so that the economy can try to recover.

I think a lot of people are in danger due to worries about losing their jobs and having no income to look after their families or to spend to try to support businesses and thereby boost the economy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 28, 2020, 02:02:27 PM
I am indifferent. It's a political issue.
But when we were saying that it is a political and moral issue you were claiming it was a matter for the police:

'The people who decide on these things - the police, the CPS and the judiciary will have to investigate and make a decision on whether the drive to Durham was reasonable or not.'

Now when the police have found that he did breach the regulations (not just fail to comply with the guidance which is a lower threshold), you suddenly start saying it is a political matter.

You are tying yourself up in knots Gabriella.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 28, 2020, 02:21:38 PM
But when we were saying that it is a political and moral issue you were claiming it was a matter for the police:

'The people who decide on these things - the police, the CPS and the judiciary will have to investigate and make a decision on whether the drive to Durham was reasonable or not.'

Now when the police have found that he did breach the regulations (not just fail to comply with the guidance which is a lower threshold), you suddenly start saying it is a political matter.

You are tying yourself up in knots Gabriella.
I don't think I am. It was a police matter as to whether Cummings and wife breached the lock down - the police have decided they did by driving to the Castle. They seem to have made no comment about the drive to Durham so not sure what happens or who is responsible for investigating that. The police have decided to not take any further action over the trip to the Castle.

The police action is a separate issue from whether Cummings now resigns or is sacked as a result of the breach of the lockdown. If there are civil service codes that govern this - it becomes a civil service code issue and there must be a process for this. If there is no breach of a civil service code it is a political issue - how much will the government be hurt by Cummings staying rather than Cummings going. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 28, 2020, 02:37:19 PM
...
Cummings should be held accountable after investigation. I believe Durham police are looking into it. Whether he gets sacked or not depends on how useful he is to the government. I am a pragmatist - if he is actually more use in office than out because his replacement would be even more incompetent, I am ok with him staying in office even though I dislike the spin and lies etc. We're stuck with Boris during this pandemic due to our FPTP electoral system and the way election campaigns are run and the limited attention span and attention to detail and the beliefs of a significant number of UK voters  - it's a very imperfect system.

Well, are we stuck with Johnson? Cummings is no use at all to the government. The Conservatives have a majority of 80 it only takes 40 Tories to side with the opposition to wipe out their lead. Unthinkable at the moment, even without Cummings being held to account.

But ... we are already heading for an excess death toll of around 70k, if this starts to rise to 80 or 90k ..., people fail to get back to work, when we fail to get a free trade deal with the EU and all we have is this continuing bumbling incompetence ...?   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Enki on May 28, 2020, 02:55:31 PM
I agree. Cummings screwed up badly and should have to pay the price for doing so.

I agree. He definitely should pay the price by either resigning or by being sacked. Sadly, unless enough Tory MPs object,  probably nothing will happen. I assume you would also want Stephen Kinnock to pay the price as he screwed up badly as well. In his case, what should that price be? Sacking of his position as shadow minister for Asian affairs, perhaps? Or, maybe, losing the party whip altogether? What do you think?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 28, 2020, 03:14:42 PM
Well, are we stuck with Johnson? Cummings is no use at all to the government. The Conservatives have a majority of 80 it only takes 40 Tories to side with the opposition to wipe out their lead. Unthinkable at the moment, even without Cummings being held to account.

But ... we are already heading for an excess death toll of around 70k, if this starts to rise to 80 or 90k ..., people fail to get back to work, when we fail to get a free trade deal with the EU and all we have is this continuing bumbling incompetence ...?
I've always liked Keir Starmer so unless he does something to screw up or the media spin or Twitter mob neutralise him, I guess there is hope that Boris will be banished. And if Boris goes presumably Cummings goes too.

ETA: I notice Keir Starmer said that failing to sack Cummings has left the government looking "untrustworthy and unprincipled". That must be why I am indifferent to Cummings actions - I always thought this government was untrustworthy and unprincipled so I don't feel betrayed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 28, 2020, 03:21:49 PM
I agree. He definitely should pay the price by either resigning or by being sacked. Sadly, unless enough Tory MPs object,  probably nothing will happen. I assume you would also want Stephen Kinnock to pay the price as he screwed up badly as well. In his case, what should that price be? Sacking of his position as shadow minister for Asian affairs, perhaps? Or, maybe, losing the party whip altogether? What do you think?
Kinnock posted a picture of himself breaching guidelines - so the Press and public could not really get a proper head of steam going. 

Maybe most of the current crop of MPs and civil servants have been indulging in some minor breaches of one kind or another. Maybe the reporters should investigate each and every one of them and they should all be sacked or resign once the Press have written their story. Would we notice much change in the current shambles if we lost most of the MPs and civil service?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 28, 2020, 03:25:59 PM
Kinnock posted a picture of himself breaching guidelines - so the Press and public could not really get a proper head of steam going.
Kinnock wasn't one of the architects of the rules, so the comparison isn't really relevant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 28, 2020, 03:35:51 PM
I don't think I am. It was a police matter as to whether Cummings and wife breached the lock down - the police have decided they did by driving to the Castle. They seem to have made no comment about the drive to Durham so not sure what happens or who is responsible for investigating that. The police have decided to not take any further action over the trip to the Castle.

The police action is a separate issue from whether Cummings now resigns or is sacked as a result of the breach of the lockdown. If there are civil service codes that govern this - it becomes a civil service code issue and there must be a process for this. If there is no breach of a civil service code it is a political issue - how much will the government be hurt by Cummings staying rather than Cummings going.
Actually the police only considered whether Cummins breached the regulations (ie.e the law), they did not consider whether he had breached the guidance (or rules) i.e. the stay-at-home or self isolation.

They did make a comment about the London-Durham trip exactly to that effect:

'Durham Constabulary does not consider that by locating himself at his Father's premises, Mr Cummings committed an offence contrary to regulation 6 of the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions( (England) Regulations 2020. (We are concerned here with breaches of the Regulations, not the general Government guidance to "stay at  home"'

Now actually the Durham police have no jurisdiction regarding the original trip in relation to the Regulations as they are specifically relates to:

'During the emergency period, no person may leave the place where they are living without reasonable excuse'

Because any breach of those regulations relating to the 260 mile trip will have taken place in London, as any offence relates to a decision to leave the place where they were living, i.e. their Islington home.

Whether the Met will get involved, I have no idea, but it is really only they that can determine whether a breach of the regulations took place.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 28, 2020, 03:37:19 PM
Kinnock wasn't one of the architects of the rules, so the comparison isn't really relevant.
He is an MP so is in public office and so presumably should be setting an example.

I am not sure Cummings was much of an architect either - they were getting yelled at from various quarters including certain journalists and sections of the public to put the country into lockdown.

https://www.medialens.org/2020/for-unknown-reasons-they-waited-and-watched-lancet-editor-exposes-devastating-government-failure-on-coronavirus/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Enki on May 28, 2020, 03:55:33 PM
Kinnock wasn't one of the architects of the rules, so the comparison isn't really relevant.

We are obviously going to disagree about this.  I think it's entirely relevant. The same argument applies. He felt it was 'essential travel' even though the police urged him to comply with  the restrictions. It has to be the same rule for everyone or anyone could say that they were travelling the equivalent of Wales to London to visit relatives just to deliver essential supplies. He is an MP, voted for by the majority of his constituents, and representing them and their interests. If Cummings should be penalised for his trip to Barnard Castle then Kinnock should be punished for making his trip to see his parents, coincidentally on his Dad's birthday, of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 28, 2020, 04:21:29 PM
We are obviously going to disagree about this.  I think it's entirely relevant. The same argument applies. He felt it was 'essential travel' even though the police urged him to comply with  the restrictions. It has to be the same rule for everyone or anyone could say that they were travelling the equivalent of Wales to London to visit relatives just to deliver essential supplies. He is an MP, voted for by the majority of his constituents, and representing them and their interests. If Cummings should be penalised for his trip to Barnard Castle then Kinnock should be punished for making his trip to see his parents, coincidentally on his Dad's birthday, of course.
On the basis that they broke the rules - yes it is the same. We can argue til the cows come home which is a worse breach, but that isn't the point - they both broke the rule and should receive criticism and potentially warnings or action from the police.

But that isn't the only matter - as Cummins is one of the chief architects (actually almost certainly the chief architect) of the policy then his breach is more serious. Firstly from the perspective of hypocrisy and 'one rule for us, another for them' - but also his breach is far, far more serious in terms of bring the policy itself into disrepute - it is far more corrosive for public confidence in a policy if the person who wrote that policy can't be bothered to abide by it than for someone who had no involvement in the development of the policy.

So, yes the police response should be the same (and indeed the Durham police have been at pains to state that are treated this incident exactly as they would for anyone else) but the response of the public is, quite rightly, different, and the response of the government needs to be different too if they are to rebuild trust in the policy.

If you want much closer examples, then you need to look at Ferguson and Calderwood, although their involvement in policy development was less than Cummings and their breaches were less serious as there was no evidence than anyone involved had symptoms, and was likely contagious, unlike for Cummins and Wakefield. Yet both of them resigned. I guess neither was as valuable to Boris as Cummings.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 28, 2020, 04:27:08 PM
We are obviously going to disagree about this.  I think it's entirely relevant. The same argument applies. He felt it was 'essential travel' even though the police urged him to comply with  the restrictions. It has to be the same rule for everyone or anyone could say that they were travelling the equivalent of Wales to London to visit relatives just to deliver essential supplies. He is an MP, voted for by the majority of his constituents, and representing them and their interests. If Cummings should be penalised for his trip to Barnard Castle then Kinnock should be punished for making his trip to see his parents, coincidentally on his Dad's birthday, of course.

Obviously the police have to treat everyone equally, which wrt. the Barnard Castle trip they seem to have done. However resigning or firing from a position is not down to the police, being more a moral matter, and the circumstances are not the same:

Cummings was infected when travelling to Durham and his wife thought to be (sounds more like food poisoning or norovirus) and they were transporting a child in a closed environment - so were directly putting one or more persons in danger. And, in fact, used hospital resources in a remote area rather than London. They know this, which is why they have tried to cover up their actions.

No doubt there are professors all over the country conducting affairs against the advice, but only Neil Ferguson had to resign - because he was directly involved in advising on the policy implemented.

(darn, instead of typing that I could have just waited for, and agreed with PD)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 28, 2020, 04:29:08 PM
(darn, instead of typing that I could have just waited for, and agreed with PD)
Always the best policy ;)

And nope I've not been having an affair during the lock down. ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 28, 2020, 04:32:08 PM
And, in fact, used hospital resources in a remote area rather than London. They know this, which is why they have tried to cover up their actions.
That is a very good point and one that hasn't been raised much.

Throughout the crisis there has been a lot of concern from more rural areas that allowing people to travel to self isolate from London and other major cities to the equivalent of second homes in rural areas would put their health-care systems under unnecessary and unmanageable strain.

Cummings did exactly that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 28, 2020, 04:59:23 PM

Class trolling

https://skwawkbox.org/2020/05/28/dublin-airport-responds-to-query-on-slow-flight-arrival-with-must-see-cummings-put-down/?fbclid=IwAR0j8GQcLwH3y0yUH-Yb67NmSHNpGGuhEHQbnPWoqo4L3i3YWbHoVIzymdQ
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 28, 2020, 07:01:12 PM
And good piece


https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/britain-bristling-betrayal-boris-johnson-and-his-enforcer-chief-editors-comment-2865338
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 28, 2020, 07:34:09 PM
Although he wasn't hiding his actions or guilty of lying about what he did, this still raises awkward questions for Mr Blackford to answer and cuts away that moral high ground he is so fond of:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1288182/Ian-blackford-coronavirus-lockdown-snp-news-dominic-cummings-resign
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 28, 2020, 08:28:43 PM
Although he wasn't hiding his actions or guilty of lying about what he did, this still raises awkward questions for Mr Blackford to answer and cuts away that moral high ground he is so fond of:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1288182/Ian-blackford-coronavirus-lockdown-snp-news-dominic-cummings-resign
He went home as instructed to do and had no symptoms or reason to think he had Covid 19. Missing the issue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 28, 2020, 08:30:12 PM
Who buys and uses fireworks to 'Clap for Carers'?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 28, 2020, 08:36:05 PM
He went home as instructed to do and had no symptoms or reason to think he had Covid 19. Missing the issue.

Ok - I read it as him having adequate accom in London. But it is the Express!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 28, 2020, 08:45:15 PM
Ok - I read it as him having adequate accom in London. But it is the Express!
He could have stayed in London but the instruction was for MPs to go home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 28, 2020, 08:51:33 PM
He could have stayed in London but the instruction was for MPs to go home.

Yes I've read up on it further. Apologies for getting it wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 28, 2020, 08:55:54 PM
Yes I've read up on it further. Apologies for getting it wrong.
You didn't, the Express did deliberately. Don't get me wrong, I am not Blackford's biggest fan but here it's a non story.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 29, 2020, 12:20:46 AM
This is pointless idiocy.

https://www.parliament.uk/business/news/2020/may/speaker-agrees-to-recall-of-parliament/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 29, 2020, 12:33:07 AM
Read a headline online, which I didn't follow up, that the country may be more or less back to normal by August. Let's hope so - we can then at least enjoy the arse-end of summer properly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 29, 2020, 12:45:45 AM
Read a headline online, which I didn't follow up, that the country may be more or less back to normal by August. Let's hope so - we can then at least enjoy the arse-end of summer properly.
just after that there will be a second wave. Of redundancies. It will be huge and it will be brutal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 29, 2020, 10:09:57 AM
Nick Robinson tweet.

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1266050139891945473

Given his well known political inclinations this is illuminating. That may be an understatement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 29, 2020, 10:18:09 AM
Although he wasn't hiding his actions or guilty of lying about what he did, this still raises awkward questions for Mr Blackford to answer and cuts away that moral high ground he is so fond of:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1288182/Ian-blackford-coronavirus-lockdown-snp-news-dominic-cummings-resign
Saw something about this on the Book of Faces. It is a pathetic attempt by right-wingers to deflect attention from Cummings. He went back to his constituency and home when it was still ok to do so, and has stayed there since, and he was asymptomatic. Total non-issue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 29, 2020, 10:22:13 AM
Saw something about this on the Book of Faces. It is a pathetic attempt by right-wingers to deflect attention from Cummings. He went back to his constituency and home when it was still ok to do so, and has stayed there since, and he was asymptomatic. Total non-issue.

Totally agree. Normally when I see a story I usually check for at least two versions of it. Didn't in this case  :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 29, 2020, 11:07:17 AM
Quote
“Plague! We are in the middle of a plague! And you behave like this! Plague! 40 million infected people is a plague! Until we get our acts together, all of us, we are as good as dead.”

The above was written by Larry Kramer, a famous AIDS activist who died this week.

Looking at people on the beach in Worthing yesterday it is every bit as relevant now to Coronavirus as it was to AIDS then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 29, 2020, 11:44:36 AM
The above was written by Larry Kramer, a famous AIDS activist who died this week.

Looking at people on the beach in Worthing yesterday it is every bit as relevant now to Coronavirus as it was to AIDS then.
It's very interesting what becomes important to different people. Why the need to sit on a beach? Maybe the people who are not social-distancing have decided that as the NHS has not been overwhelmed, they think it is safer to catch Covid-19 now and get it over and done with - if they live, they live, and if they die they die. I wonder if this will affect recruiting rates for the NHS or if there will still be a considerable section of the population who feel inspired to risk their lives helping others. I was watching a programme last night and the hospital cleaner said he was initially worried but once he had received the training and had the PPE he felt ok and just wanted to be a professional and do his job on the Covid-19 ward as he could see that every role - doctors, nurses, cleaners - was important to combat the spread of the disease.

I feel fine not really meeting anyone socially apart from my household and you people (virtually) on this forum...and sometimes I drop client files off to someone else working from home near my house or get files dropped off  to my house. I go for 3 or 4 days without speaking to my parents - I know they are happy chatting on a big family WhatsApp group as I see them post interesting snippets with relatives from all around the world.

I spoke to my dad 2 days ago - he phoned me up briefly to remind me to look at the International Space Station passing in the sky and then rang off as he probably had stuff he wanted to read or deal with rather than chit-chatting with me - he's 78 so still in the prime of his life :) 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 29, 2020, 02:42:25 PM
Nice to see the great minds in the gov. are doing their best to keep our confidence up...

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/the-government-is-paying-the-sun-and-daily-mail-for-positive-coverage-of-its-coronavirus-response/28/05/

Quote
The government appears to have orchestrated a wide-scale content marketing blitz across national newspapers including the Sun and the Daily Mail in a bid to secure some positive coverage of its coronavirus response.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 30, 2020, 12:15:18 AM

Aye

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/29/boris-johnson-dominic-cummings-matt-hancock
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 30, 2020, 10:49:52 AM
This along with the current uptick which may be related to VE day is all a bit worrying


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52858392
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 30, 2020, 11:23:22 AM
This along with the current uptick which may be related to VE day is all a bit worrying


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52858392
Yes - I agree it's a political decision. The government always said that they knew that they would only be able to keep people in lockdown for a certain period of time as after a while people would flout it and in a liberal democracy such as the UK it was inconceivable to be able to force people to stay in lockdown to protect vulnerable people. 

I plan on focusing on social distancing and washing my hands. The lockdown was about not overwhelming the NHS and mortuaries and cemeteries. They cocked it up with the lack of PPE.

Large numbers of people were always going to get sick and significant numbers die because firstly, that's what happens in a pandemic if there is no vaccine and secondly, risk-taking is part of human behaviour and also dying when you are old or sick or physically weak in some way is a natural part of being alive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on May 30, 2020, 11:56:13 AM
He is in a public office as he is the chief advisor to the PM - that is a government appointment not a Conservative party one. He is, in effect, a part of the civil service, hence there was a load of discussion about whether he was actually allowed to make the statement he did on Monday and whether this was a breach of the civil service code.

The official status of  special advisors is outlined in the Annual Report on Special Advisors 2019, published by the Cabinet Office. It seems bizarre to me that political advisors can be "civil servants" when the Civil Service is supposed to be apolitical. It would appear (though I have not checked this yet) that "special advisors" can be paid out of the public purse in consequence of the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act 2010.

According to the report, the Prime Minister has 44 political advisors (and Dominic Cummings is not the highest paid). The Chancellor of the Exchequer has six.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 30, 2020, 12:19:44 PM
World class


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/30/boris-johnsons-test-and-tracing-system-britain-lockdown?fbclid=IwAR32tWlPLDuKwzS9fMfY-myf56g8bRBGWYNhuoX0FsgC1DpY8umyEY_s_GU
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 30, 2020, 12:50:10 PM
The official status of  special advisors is outlined in the Annual Report on Special Advisors 2019, published by the Cabinet Office. It seems bizarre to me that political advisors can be "civil servants" when the Civil Service is supposed to be apolitical. It would appear (though I have not checked this yet) that "special advisors" can be paid out of the public purse in consequence of the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act 2010.

According to the report, the Prime Minister has 44 political advisors (and Dominic Cummings is not the highest paid). The Chancellor of the Exchequer has six.
Yes they are civil servants, although they are political appointments, unlike most civil servants. They work for the government, not the conservative party. They are typically defined as 'temporary' civil servants as their appointment and tenure is usually linked to a particular minister and certainly to a party in government. This is in contrast to 'permanent' civil servants who stay in a department and will remain in place if a government of a different party comes in (and are required to be impartial).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_adviser_(UK)
https://www.civilservant.org.uk/spads-homepage.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 30, 2020, 03:52:56 PM
Just picked up 2 draft pints from my local. Drinking them at the Bal Cony resort. Not quite the pub but a sweet moment
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 30, 2020, 04:09:03 PM
Interesting to recent see comments today by several scientists to the effect that the lockdown easing in England is a political rather than a scientific decision. I wonder if they are ensuring that the politicians can't at some later date, during the course of any enquiry, claim that they were always just following the science.

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on May 30, 2020, 05:01:36 PM
Large numbers of people were always going to get sick and significant numbers die because firstly, that's what happens in a pandemic if there is no vaccine and secondly, risk-taking is part of human behaviour and also dying when you are old or sick or physically weak in some way is a natural part of being alive.
Fatalistic and defeatist.
Other countries have fared far better than us because they didn't accept this as a given or find any consolation in it.

IMHO the more people relax the more people will get it and the more at risk we will be.

Johnson it seems only knows how to bully and assert people when his own interests are at risk and that is it seems the only thing the English population seems to sheepishly fall behind. Imagine that level of personal nastiness turned against Coronavirus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on May 30, 2020, 05:52:32 PM
Fatalistic and defeatist.
Other countries have fared far better than us because they didn't accept this as a given or find any consolation in it.
Oh I agree that other countries have fared better - though we still do not have the information on exactly why or whether mortality rates in other countries will rise. Some suggestions are that Germany apparently has a better biomedical base than us so had far more labs and were therefore more geared up to carry out testing and then were meticulous about tracking people. That's not something the UK government could have fixed easily if the technical competency just isn't there - our system of testing and tracking is not going too well currently. But yes the government was stupid for not focusing on testing far earlier than they did.

We also have different demographics - in all countries the majority of people who died were elderly and we have a large elderly population - but yes the government made a massive mistake in sending elderly people from hospitals to care homes without testing them to know if they had Covid-19, which then led to the spread of the disease. Britain has more over-weight / obese people compared to many other countries and being over-weight is a factor in those who have died of Covid-19. So I don't think I am being fatalistic - just realistic.

Quote
IMHO the more people relax the more people will get it and the more at risk we will be.
I agree - that's why I said I plan on remaining vigilant about maintaining social distancing and washing my hands.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 30, 2020, 08:28:52 PM
There is some truth here but I think that there is a tendency for some to underplay Cummings actions as for some to overplay.

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/30/dominic-cummings-boris-johnson-evil-geniuses-hardly-lazy-incompetent?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 30, 2020, 11:25:15 PM
Ffs

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-52864454
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 31, 2020, 08:26:15 AM
Ffs

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-52864454

Stupid idiots! >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on May 31, 2020, 10:05:21 AM
No
Stupid idiots! >:(
Not only stupid idiots but extremely selfish too, since helicopters and police and hospital staff had to spend time on their self-indulgent stupidity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 31, 2020, 11:24:33 AM
Not only stupid idiots but extremely selfish too, since helicopters and police and hospital staff had to spend time on their self-indulgent stupidity.

Agreed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 31, 2020, 12:08:23 PM
Not only stupid idiots but extremely selfish too, since helicopters and police and hospital staff had to spend time on their self-indulgent stupidity.

I totally agree, however I do wonder where they got the idea that lockdown was essentially over from?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 31, 2020, 12:08:50 PM
Agreed.
No doubt you "have no sympathy" for them as usual, no matter how bad their injuries may be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 31, 2020, 12:18:27 PM
No doubt you "have no sympathy" for them as usual, no matter how bad their injuries may be.

No sympathy whatsoever, it is their own stupid fault. >:( My sympathies go towards their rescuers who have much better things to do at this time of crisis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 31, 2020, 12:25:08 PM
No sympathy whatsoever, it is their own stupid fault. >:( My sympathies go towards their rescuers who have much better things to do at this time of crisis.
People who injure themselves diving into water typically suffer a broken neck, and end up quadriplegic for the rest of their lives, which is a hell of a price to pay for a moment's stupidity - but you, with typically heartless self-righteousness, have no sympathy. (I realise that we don't know what the injuries are, but they are described as "serious".)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on May 31, 2020, 12:29:35 PM
People who injure themselves diving into water typically suffer a broken neck, and end up quadriplegic for the rest of their lives, which is a hell of a price to pay for a moment's stupidity - but you, with typically heartless self-righteousness, have no sympathy. (I realise that we don't know what the injuries are, but they are described as "serious".)

They should have thought of that before they dived.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 31, 2020, 12:32:35 PM
I totally agree, however I do wonder where they got the idea that lockdown was essentially over from?
And not just them but the many others who had filled the beach.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on May 31, 2020, 12:42:30 PM
A song for Dominic Cummings

www.youtube.com/watch?v=0na2Y_74_mk
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on May 31, 2020, 12:59:06 PM
I totally agree, however I do wonder where they got the idea that lockdown was essentially over from?
How do you know that that is what they thought, or what their 'idea'was? You may well be right, but I don't think anyone would have questioned them about what they thought while transporting them to hospital. So you have made an assumption.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 31, 2020, 01:01:33 PM
How do you know that that is what they thought, or what their 'idea'was? You may well be right, but I don't think anyone would have questioned them about what they thought while transporting them to hospital. So you have made an assumption.

No I have asked a question.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 31, 2020, 01:11:21 PM
Many of you will, as I have been doing, been taking part in quizzes over 'lockdown'. So I thought I would put up my own little lockdown quiz.

1. What is the correct swearword for Dominic Cummings?
2. How many ers, ah, and ums have been used by Boris Johnson?
3. Will Nicola Sturgeon win Hairdresser of the Year
And 4. Will Nike sponsor it?
5. Matt Hancock. Why?
6. Who is the Welsh bloke?
7. What is a lert?
8. What day is today?
9. Who is the official opposition
(A) Piers Morgan
(B) Emily Maitlis
(C) Jon Snow

10. How many bottles of wine have I drunk over lockdown?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on May 31, 2020, 01:30:32 PM
:D I've passed on those questions to my older son who, with friends in the neighbourhood, has been organising quizzes!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 31, 2020, 08:05:12 PM
Feck me, they were still doing it, and people are clapping.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-52867140
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 31, 2020, 08:26:01 PM
No I have asked a question.
No, you made a statement, and then stuck a question mark on the end.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 31, 2020, 08:38:01 PM
No, you made a statement, and then stuck a question mark on the end.
So you are saying it was not a question?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 31, 2020, 08:43:36 PM
So you are saying it was not a question?
Yes - and neither is that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 31, 2020, 08:50:24 PM
Yes - and neither is that.

That's not a reply.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 31, 2020, 08:56:11 PM
Yes - and neither is that.
Except in trying to find out what someone is saying that is both legitimate and a question.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on May 31, 2020, 09:43:04 PM
Trentvoyager:-  "I totally agree, however I do wonder where they got the idea that lockdown was essentially over from?"

Over from what?
...

Made me think of Joni Ereakson Tada who dived and was paralysed thereafter. I hope that is not the case with these people. I don't know how old they are but imagine they are young.

People have been going to the seaside recently and will do so even more now.  I don't think lockdown or lack of it has anything to do with the matter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 31, 2020, 09:47:20 PM
Trentvoyager:-  "I totally agree, however I do wonder where they got the idea that lockdown was essentially over from?"

Over from what?
...

Made me think of Joni Ereakson Tada who dived and was paralysed thereafter. I hope that is not the case with these people. I don't know how old they are but imagine they are young.

People have been going to the seaside recently and will do so even more now.  I don't think lockdown or lack of it has anything to do with the matter.
'From where did they get the idea that lockdown was essentially over?'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 31, 2020, 09:50:23 PM
Frm the Domnishambles, perhaps.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on May 31, 2020, 09:50:53 PM
More appropriate would be:
"I totally agree, however I do wonder from where they got the idea that lockdown was essentially over."
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 31, 2020, 09:59:39 PM
More appropriate would be:
"I totally agree, however I do wonder from where they got the idea that lockdown was essentially over."
Even better would be to get rid of the comma-splice and use a more natural word-order, thus: "I totally agree. However, I do wonder where they got the idea that the lockdown was essentially over from".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 31, 2020, 10:09:35 PM
Even better would be to get rid of the comma-splice and use a more natural word-order, thus: "I totally agree. However, I do wonder where they got the idea that the lockdown was essentially over from".
And then my arse shut with a traf, and I was stuck up there for all time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 31, 2020, 11:23:28 PM
I would like to thank Steve and Robbie for their concerns over my use of the English language.

I appreciate it very much.

I leave you with this thought:

 “He that is without sin among you, let him first cast a stone at her.”

Thank you and goodnight sweet posters.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on May 31, 2020, 11:40:30 PM
Thank you and God bless oh beautiful Trentvoyager, you're welcome. May the force be with you and give you pleasant dreams  :).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on June 01, 2020, 06:36:15 AM
I would like to thank Steve and Robbie for their concerns over my use of the English language.

I appreciate it very much.

I leave you with this thought:

 “He that is without sin among you, let him first cast a stone at her.”

Thank you and goodnight sweet posters.
Who did any stone-casting? We simply suggested ways the sentence could have been better expressed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 01, 2020, 08:21:19 AM
Who did any stone-casting? We simply suggested ways the sentence could have been better expressed.

Sometimes you really do resemble another poster with your concrete thinking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on June 01, 2020, 09:21:48 AM
Sometimes you really do resemble another poster with your concrete thinking.
I can't think who you mean - Vlad the Incomprehensible, perhaps?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 01, 2020, 09:53:34 AM
I can't think who you mean - Vlad the Incomprehensible, perhaps?

He's certainly a candidate  ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 01, 2020, 10:28:33 AM
Who did any stone-casting? We simply suggested ways the sentence could have been better expressed.

That is hilarious coming from you, some of your posts give the impression spelling isn't your forte!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on June 01, 2020, 07:24:26 PM
I wasn't certain whether this belongs here or in the Science section.

Elemental is a publication devoted to health and associated matters. It is clear that it is not peer-reviewed and essentially populist in its approach. But it does appear to be "informed populist". So, anyway, here is an article from its website:

https://elemental.medium.com/coronavirus-may-be-a-blood-vessel-disease-which-explains-everything-2c4032481ab2

Does this really mean that people on warfarin or statins are protected from COVID 19?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on June 01, 2020, 09:54:49 PM
First night out after the bars openned here, met my best mate and his wife, naturally conversation moved to the coronavirus. Both were of the opinion that lockdowns were just a way of reducing peoples rights and that it is tantamount to facism. I tried to point out what facism is, but then they just changed the subject. They said the government said this at the beginning of the crisis but now say that, as proof of their incompetence, even though they could only go on the information they had at the time. Then they went on to vaccines and Bill Gates. I pointed out that even if they don't believe in good intentions, that isn't an argument against a vaccine but only an argument against private involvement in public heath. Then they said he aired an opinion that movement should be restricted according to who might have had any potential vaccine. I said any vaccine should be voluntary but any country has the right to make its own rules as regards to movement. They said that's facism. What do I do to help then see straight? And because I didn't agree with them, apparently I haven't done the research and am brainwashed by the main media corporations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 01, 2020, 10:02:35 PM
Why would the person who can access computing and mobile phone data need some form of injection? And what would they do with it? And why would it work if they shag the economy?.


The whole point is not to have people reverse the burden of proof. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on June 02, 2020, 02:38:52 AM
First night out after the bars openned here, met my best mate and his wife, naturally conversation moved to the coronavirus. Both were of the opinion that lockdowns were just a way of reducing peoples rights and that it is tantamount to facism. I tried to point out what facism is, but then they just changed the subject. They said the government said this at the beginning of the crisis but now say that, as proof of their incompetence, even though they could only go on the information they had at the time. Then they went on to vaccines and Bill Gates. I pointed out that even if they don't believe in good intentions, that isn't an argument against a vaccine but only an argument against private involvement in public heath. Then they said he aired an opinion that movement should be restricted according to who might have had any potential vaccine. I said any vaccine should be voluntary but any country has the right to make its own rules as regards to movement. They said that's facism. What do I do to help then see straight? And because I didn't agree with them, apparently I haven't done the research and am brainwashed by the main media corporations.

From an American point of view, I can understand the issue with "private involvement."  Private enterprise never includes everyone, because everyone isn't involved in the investment. (Been thinking about that a lot being one who's grown up with the US space industry, and now we have an Elon Musk rocket going up?  It was my first time ever feeling "meh" about a launch from Cape Canaveral.  But, as I said, private enterprise never includes everyone.) Having said that, after all your friends said about vaccines and Bill Gates?  Good luck, and I feel sorry that your experience has so changed when all you want is a drink with friends.  xx
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on June 02, 2020, 10:52:24 AM
I wasn't certain whether this belongs here or in the Science section.

Elemental is a publication devoted to health and associated matters. It is clear that it is not peer-reviewed and essentially populist in its approach. But it does appear to be "informed populist". So, anyway, here is an article from its website:

https://elemental.medium.com/coronavirus-may-be-a-blood-vessel-disease-which-explains-everything-2c4032481ab2

Does this really mean that people on warfarin or statins are protected from CORVID 19?

The idea is clearly interesting and needs more investigation. I doubt, though, that warfarin or statins would fully protect anyone from the disease - even if they could be life-saving for certain patients, depending on the course of the disease: It does affect the lung tissue and may then go on to affect blood or nervous system in addition. Some of the drugs that might help with a vascular system infection could also make an initial respiratory system infection more likely or more severe.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 02, 2020, 11:50:47 AM
Hope they vote to keep it virtual


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52876395
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 02, 2020, 11:52:39 AM
Hope they vote to keep it virtual


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52876395

I hope so too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 02, 2020, 12:53:47 PM
Not sure about this. I wonder how many people will be that keen to travel to here for holidays. Perhaps more support should be about getting to a stage where holidays within the UK were allowed.

And as a slight annoyance the idea that school holidays are uniform across the countries in the UK is one of the problems  with reporting on a devolved system that so often the BBC doesn't seem capable of reflecting.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52886724
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 02, 2020, 12:59:17 PM

And again, I get why a govt might need some flexibility but introducing measures that you then ignore is undermining all your attempts to give clear messages.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52889711
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 02, 2020, 03:43:56 PM
Hope they vote to keep it virtual


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52876395
It would seem that the vote on whether to continue to have remote voting is then based on a physical vote so that those MPs who are shielding such as Robert Halfon are excluded. Another example of this govt being a fucking disgrace and illustration that Rees Mogg who is pushing this pisses on democracy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on June 02, 2020, 03:47:35 PM
The idea is clearly interesting and needs more investigation. I doubt, though, that warfarin or statins would fully protect anyone from the disease - even if they could be life-saving for certain patients, depending on the course of the disease: It does affect the lung tissue and may then go on to affect blood or nervous system in addition. Some of the drugs that might help with a vascular system infection could also make an initial respiratory system infection more likely or more severe.

This makes sense.  It explains why doctors were also seeing patients with cerebral blood clots and the children having the toxic-shock symptoms.  It's all vascular.  Autopsies are showing those with affected lungs had pulmonary clotting.  This explains also why doctors initially thought that people with cardiovascular disease were more likely to die. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on June 02, 2020, 04:00:20 PM
Whene it was discovered that I have Factor V Leiden, I was put on warfarin.  This has since been changed to Clopidogrel and other things to help thin the blood. That might have been enough to get me on the particularly vulnerable register I suppose, but  I don't think it would have made much difference to the management of my life  since lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 02, 2020, 05:20:16 PM
It would seem that the vote on whether to continue to have remote voting is then based on a physical vote so that those MPs who are shielding such as Robert Halfon are excluded. Another example of this govt being a fucking disgrace and illustration that Rees Mogg who is pushing this pisses on democracy.
And the queue for the 2nd vote is forming before the 1st cote is finished. This is a mockery.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 02, 2020, 08:10:07 PM
This is a joke. You voted Tory you voted for this antidemocratic farce.


https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/06/mps-return-to-parliament-westminster-jacob-rees-mogg-virtual?fbclid=IwAR1QB0KVYrWYKN2ns5dy4AZ3cvpaRdw3brE1WJUpx79z_Tcl6-tpdsRF-fk
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 03, 2020, 08:09:39 AM
This is a joke. You voted Tory you voted for this antidemocratic farce.


https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/06/mps-return-to-parliament-westminster-jacob-rees-mogg-virtual?fbclid=IwAR1QB0KVYrWYKN2ns5dy4AZ3cvpaRdw3brE1WJUpx79z_Tcl6-tpdsRF-fk

If some people who voted Tory can't get their heads around the fact that this Government has made a complete and disastrous mess of dealing with this pandemic, why on Earth do you think a few pesky MP's being denied their vote will matter to them?

To be clear it is a fucking disgrace.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Owlswing on June 03, 2020, 10:10:43 AM

 Appreciate that. The long recovery time will be when she gets home. The treatment of those with Covid 19 has been getting better over time. I hope that will help with your sister in law


I hope that this message is not going to grate on you or cause you any discomfort, but my sister-in-law was passed clear at her Doctor's appointment yesterday. She returns to her duties on Thursday!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 03, 2020, 10:38:56 AM
I hope that this message is not going to grate on you or cause you any discomfort, but my sister-in-law was passed clear at her Doctor's appointment yesterday. She returns to her duties on Thursday!
Unsure why you might think that would cause me discomfort, it's great news! Hurrah.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 03, 2020, 11:58:07 AM
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-uk-boris-johnson-herd-immunity-dispatches-channel-4-italy-president-a9544916.html?

And, of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on June 03, 2020, 06:37:39 PM
I hope that this message is not going to grate on you or cause you any discomfort, but my sister-in-law was passed clear at her Doctor's appointment yesterday. She returns to her duties on Thursday!

Glad to hear this good news!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 04, 2020, 12:41:46 PM

Farcical


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52910303?fbclid=IwAR3DGIN-0c4c_GA-8C42gXIHgaanz9ggrX9pDOfcVLAQY9wCmLSBaoceAtg
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 04, 2020, 12:49:07 PM




https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/02/safe-ease-lockdown-matt-hancock-alert-system-britain?fbclid=IwAR3ARB-8AzJAuKm6jnTrVOJBKU9HnuMzFuel375PLCce6OO3erisrHx7zKY#maincontent
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on June 04, 2020, 12:55:30 PM
Farcical


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52910303?fbclid=IwAR3DGIN-0c4c_GA-8C42gXIHgaanz9ggrX9pDOfcVLAQY9wCmLSBaoceAtg
Rees-Mogg is an embarrassment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on June 04, 2020, 03:10:12 PM
Rees-Mogg is an embarrassment.
Indeed - and also achingly out of touch with the public on this, who overwhelmingly want their MPs to be able to work and vote remotely:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/06/03/only-12-brits-think-mps-should-have-physically-be-

Just 12% support Rees-Mogg's demand that MPs have to vote in person, with 76% opposing. And the picture is pretty well identical for conservative voters - who oppose the Rees-Mogg plans by 77% to 17%.

I wonder what Alok Sharma's test results will show - if he tests positive presumably a number of MPs (including I gather the MP and chancellor may need to self isolate).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 04, 2020, 06:26:49 PM
I have just seen that Sharma tested negative for the virus. You can almost hear the sighs of relief!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on June 05, 2020, 07:12:07 AM
I'm fed up with hearing that Britain has the world's third highest covid 19 death toll. Maybe it is because after some initial muddle, the Gov are now being more honest about deaths mainly from the virus?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on June 05, 2020, 07:39:14 AM
I'm fed up with hearing that Britain has the world's third highest covid 19 death toll. Maybe it is because after some initial muddle, the Gov are now being more honest about deaths mainly from the virus?

Are you suggesting that other countries are not being honest?  Why are you "fed up" with hearing a particular statistic being stated? To you want the British population kept in the dark about about the British government's incompetence?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on June 05, 2020, 07:40:09 AM
I'm fed up with hearing that Britain has the world's third highest covid 19 death toll. Maybe it is because after some initial muddle, the Gov are now being more honest about deaths mainly from the virus?

I think that this particular government, led by this particular PM, would struggle to give an honest reply even if the question was 'what day is it today?'.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on June 05, 2020, 08:04:08 AM
Are you suggesting that other countries are not being honest?  Why are you "fed up" with hearing a particular statistic being stated? To you want the British population kept in the dark about about the British government's incompetence?
No, none of the above. I just find it hard to believe that this country has more deaths than, for instance, China.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on June 05, 2020, 08:16:40 AM
I think that we would all like to believe that, Susan. However, how many other countries have governments led by someone whose appearences on "Have I Got News For You" were possibly influential in determining his suitability for high office for many people?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 05, 2020, 08:33:02 AM
I think that we would all like to believe that, Susan. However, how many other countries have governments led by someone whose appearences on "Have I Got News For You" were possibly influential in determining his suitability for high office for many people?

The USA kind of springs to mind........ oh, I see your point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on June 05, 2020, 08:50:51 AM
I'm fed up with hearing that Britain has the world's third highest covid 19 death toll. Maybe it is because after some initial muddle, the Gov are now being more honest about deaths mainly from the virus?

Or, they have been inept?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 05, 2020, 09:16:27 AM

Visualisation of deaths through Covid compared to other causes

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2562261/?fbclid=IwAR3u-m0WjYKbvzVYcihlVkvhHgRKVDk8DEGfeQDCU_p9-QR2SERA9hmK9xw
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 05, 2020, 09:48:38 AM
I'm fed up with hearing that Britain has the world's third highest covid 19 death toll. Maybe it is because after some initial muddle, the Gov are now being more honest about deaths mainly from the virus?

Why I wonder did they stop publishing the international comparisons as soon as it became apparent that we were doing much worse than most other countries. Perhaps it was to try to fool some of us into believing that the government was doing a good job. It obviously worked on some people. Still I imagine there must be a fair bit of cognitive dissonance going on for some Tory voters.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on June 05, 2020, 10:31:13 AM
Why I wonder did they stop publishing the international comparisons as soon as it became apparent that we were doing much worse than most other countries. Perhaps it was to try to fool some of us into believing that the government was doing a good job. It obviously worked on some people. Still I imagine there must be a fair bit of cognitive dissonance going on for some Tory voters.
Nope - not this one. I'm not a fool, you know!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 05, 2020, 10:42:28 AM
If members of the Government can't see eye to eye, Tory voters won't either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 05, 2020, 10:44:17 AM
Nope - not this one. I'm not a fool, you know!

So you don't think the government is doing a good job?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on June 05, 2020, 11:08:07 AM
Some reports that tracing won't be fully working until September.  One issue I think is that they're trying to centralize test/trace, when traditionally it was done locally by public health departments, who know their local areas.  Centralizing it causes many problems.  Plus the general ineptness that pervades the govt.  Plus the insistence on private companies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on June 05, 2020, 12:01:50 PM
So you don't think the government is doing a good job?
They are, as many Governments are, doing the best they can - they are only human beings - and in my opinion it is quite unreasonable to expect everything to go beautifully, with everything running along smoothly, with decisions made which not only seem to be the best at the time, but which later are also seen to be good with hindsight!
I think my local MP has been and stil is a very good one. I disagreed with his Brexit views, but since that is now a fact, there is no point in continuing to say anything about it, and I think his CofE faith belief needs to be up-dated to non-belief, but understand that, even if he thought that - and I've no idea because I wouldn't of course ask him - it is almost certainly politic to be CofE hereabouts. As he is not, again as far as I am aware and know, a hypocrite, that's not a problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 05, 2020, 12:05:10 PM
They are, as many Governments are, doing the best they can - they are only human beings - and in my opinion it is quite unreasonable to expect everything to go beautifully, with everything running along smoothly, with decisions made which not only seem to be the best at the time, but which later are also seen to be good with hindsight!


You really believe that?

Wow.

No wonder they keep getting elected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on June 05, 2020, 12:09:12 PM
If there were 500 000 deaths, there would still be people saying, they're doing their best.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 05, 2020, 12:17:24 PM
The British Government has not handled this crisis well at all, very badly in fact. We have the second highest death rate in the world, the US has the highest. :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 05, 2020, 12:18:28 PM
Are you suggesting that other countries are not being honest?
That's absolutely the case. Why would you think otherwise?

Quote
Why are you "fed up" with hearing a particular statistic being stated? To you want the British population kept in the dark about about the British government's incompetence?
The main reason why I'm fed up with it is that it is totally irrelevant. Every country has different problems with respect to the virus. The British government should be judged in respect of what's happening in Britain not in some other country that has about half the population of London in an area 200 times the size with a thousand miles of ocean separating it from its nearest neighbour. There are unique problems for the UK. It has, for example, some very densely populated areas like London and Birmingham.

I'm not saying the government has done a good job - it's clearly fallen short in a number of areas - but to say it's done badly because New Zealand has done well (as an example) isn't helpful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 05, 2020, 12:20:54 PM
If there were 500 000 deaths, there would still be people saying, they're doing their best.
I doubt if you or I would have done any better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 05, 2020, 12:24:44 PM
The British Government has not handled this crisis well at all, very badly in fact. We have the second highest death rate in the world, the US has the highest. :o

Belgium and Spain have higher deaths per million than us.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 05, 2020, 12:28:55 PM
I doubt if you or I would have done any better.

I actually think you both would have.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 05, 2020, 01:21:45 PM
I actually think you both would have.

Well actually, now you mention it, I think we probably would too. It's difficult to put myself back in the situation that pertained in mid March but I think I would have started the lockdown a week earlier, although, with hindsight, it is clear two weeks earlier was necessary, but I didn't know that back then. I would also have instituted track and trace straight away and started ramping up the testing capacity straight away.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on June 05, 2020, 01:49:55 PM
You really believe that?

Wow.

No wonder they keep getting elected.
You misrepresent my post by not quoting it in full.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 05, 2020, 01:59:57 PM
You misrepresent my post by not quoting it in full.

No. The second part of your post was not relevant. You were talking about your local MP. I asked about the government, so I quoted the relevant part of your post.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: wigginhall on June 05, 2020, 03:03:15 PM
I agree that hindsight is very precise.  I mean it's easy to say that the govt were slow to do various things.  However, they seemed to be slow on everything, thus, lockdown, testing, PPE, contact tracing.  I know that some people believe that pandemics had traditionally  been modelled on flu, and people were caught flat-footed, by it being different.  Of course, some skeptics still say it's like flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on June 05, 2020, 05:37:53 PM
I agree that hindsight is very precise.  I mean it's easy to say that the govt were slow to do various things.  However, they seemed to be slow on everything, thus, lockdown, testing, PPE, contact tracing.  I know that some people believe that pandemics had traditionally  been modelled on flu, and people were caught flat-footed, by it being different.  Of course, some skeptics still say it's like flu.

I don't think this can be put down to mistakes by people "doing their best",  mistakes that are easy to see in "hindsight". 

When someone makes honest mistakes they take responsibility for them and change their approach to correct and avoid similar mistakes again. They don't just keep heaping on layers of lies and pretending how they were right and acted "with integrity" all along.

They don't continue ignoring those who were trying to show them, from the start, what could work and what would not. They are on the job and putting things right - not hiding away refusing to let any light in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on June 05, 2020, 05:47:26 PM
I have just googled total covid 19 deaths in china. The answer comes up as 4634. How many of you believe that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 05, 2020, 05:51:52 PM
I have just googled total covid 19 deaths in china. The answer comes up as 4634. How many of you believe that?

Nobody I know. Your point?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on June 05, 2020, 06:20:27 PM
Nobody I know. Your point?
I'm pretty sure I posted somewhere above that I'm fed up with listening over and over again to 'Britain has the second highest death toll', so I was wondering if there would be any interesting comments, that's all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 05, 2020, 06:25:55 PM
I'm pretty sure I posted somewhere above that I'm fed up with listening over and over again to 'Britain has the second highest death toll', so I was wondering if there would be any interesting comments, that's all.

I think most people are aware of the shortcomings of the Chinese authorities when dealing with the truth.

The issue in my mind is how we have become one of the worst affected countries in Europe when we were told we were well prepared. For goodness sake Greece has done better than us, with a shit health service and an economy that was already fairly well hobbled.

For all the talk of following the science we really have not, we've sort of meandered around in a field about two counties short of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on June 05, 2020, 08:28:36 PM
I'm pretty sure I posted somewhere above that I'm fed up with listening over and over again to 'Britain has the second highest death toll', so I was wondering if there would be any interesting comments, that's all.
Apparently aside from the denials Boris Johnson(Conservative) told the Italians he wanted Herd Immunity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 05, 2020, 09:02:35 PM
I don't think this can be put down to mistakes by people "doing their best",  mistakes that are easy to see in "hindsight".
What would be the motive for the current situation. 

Quote
When someone makes honest mistakes they take responsibility for them
Do they? In my experience, they frequently try to cover their arses. It's particularly a problem if their job depend on it.

Quote
and change their approach to correct and avoid similar mistakes again.

For that to work properly, you have to have a culture where people can adit to their mistakes and learn from them. In the case of a democratic government, that's problematic because you inevitably get pilloried for your mistakes.

Quote
They don't continue ignoring those who were trying to show them, from the start, what could work and what would not. They are on the job and putting things right - not hiding away refusing to let any light in.

The government has plenty of scientific advisors telling them what they should be doing. Probably they are getting conflicting advice even from these people. Why would they listen to random people on the Internet screaming at them?

The government has made a lot of mistakes and it would be great if we could sit down after this and dispassionately analyse what went wrong and how to do it better next time, but too many people will have too much to lose for that to happen. And I'm not just talking about the political appointees. The civil service is also not up to the job and nor are parts of the NHS (I'm thinking of the procurement department here).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 05, 2020, 09:08:11 PM
when we were told we were well prepared.
Who told us we were well prepared?

Quote
For goodness sake Greece has done better than us, with a shit health service and an economy that was already fairly well hobbled.
It's almost beyond belief isn't it. Maybe you should ask yourself if Greece is more honest about COVID19 than it was about its fiscal situation.

Incidentally the whole population of Greece is only slightly bigger than London.

Quote
For all the talk of following the science we really have not, we've sort of meandered around in a field about two counties short of it.
When this started, the science was pretty sketchy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 05, 2020, 09:12:40 PM
Quote
Who told us we were well prepared?

Here:

Quote
Let’s not forget – we already have a fantastic NHS, fantastic testing systems and fantastic surveillance of the spread of disease.

We will make sure the NHS gets all the support it needs to continue their brilliant response to the virus so far.

The plan does not set out what the government will do, it sets out the steps we could take at the right time along the basis of the scientific advice.

Our country remains extremely well prepared, as it has been since the outbreak began in Wuhan several months ago.

Boris Johnson 3 March 2020 (I'd forgotten he'd said we had fantastic testing - still so many lies to choose from!)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 05, 2020, 09:14:28 PM
Who told us we were well prepared
Matt Hancock and Boris Johnson. And not only well prepared but better prepared.  Just like the world leading teach and trace programme. Do you think lying is good?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 05, 2020, 09:27:46 PM
As to Greece. I know it has a smaller population but per head it has done much better. I don't usually quote the Telegraph but here are the details:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/greece-moved-early-decisively-keep-covid-19/

Note the 2 week mandatory quarantine for travellers from abroad at the beginning of their response to Covid 19.
I believe Pritti Patel,in a rare moment of clarity and good sense, put this forward but it was vetoed at cabinet level.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 06, 2020, 01:05:54 AM

Masks


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52945210
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on June 06, 2020, 06:46:36 AM
JeremyP


I had hoped you would comment as what you say is from a cooler, more impartial point of view I think, so thank you for doing so.
Do you think that, when post-pandemic statistics come out, will be the position of the death toll in Britain? An impossible question, I know! I suppose we'll never know which deaths have been included by European countries for instance and which have not. It seems that here anyone who died, whether directly from covid 19 or not is included if they were tested and found to have it in their systems.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 06, 2020, 08:27:21 AM
JeremyP


I had hoped you would comment as what you say is from a cooler, more impartial point of view I think, so thank you for doing so.
Do you think that, when post-pandemic statistics come out, will be the position of the death toll in Britain? An impossible question, I know! I suppose we'll never know which deaths have been included by European countries for instance and which have not. It seems that here anyone who died, whether directly from covid 19 or not is included if they were tested and found to have it in their systems.

So I quote from our own PM and my post isn't more impartial?

You are determined not to acknowledge the truth of the situation. You ignore the lies told by the PM and try to imply that other posters are being hot-headed and more emotional, whilst all they are doing is quoting exactly what the government has said.

And please let us not forget that until this government was forced to it was quite willing to conveniently leave out the number of deaths in care homes.

I'm not the one being "partial" here. You are.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 06, 2020, 08:35:15 AM
So I quote from our own PM and my post isn't more impartial?

You are determined not to acknowledge the truth of the situation. You ignore the lies told by the PM and try to imply that other posters are being hot-headed and more emotional, whilst all they are doing is quoting exactly what the government has said.

And please let us not forget that until this government was forced to it was quite willing to conveniently leave out the number of deaths in care homes.

I'm not the one being "partial" here. You are.

Spot on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 06, 2020, 08:58:16 AM
As to Greece. I know it has a smaller population but per head it has done much better.
That is not the point I was trying to make. Greece's entire population is only a little bit bigger than the population of London, but Greece is 130 times bigger than London in terms of area.

The British government has to deal with Greece but packed into a tiny area and another 45 million people. Can you not see that the magnitude of the task facing them was somewhat larger.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 06, 2020, 09:09:00 AM
That is not the point I was trying to make. Greece's entire population is only a little bit bigger than the population of London, but Greece is 130 times bigger than London in terms of area.

The British government has to deal with Greece but packed into a tiny area and another 45 million people. Can you not see that the magnitude of the task facing them was somewhat larger.

Yes I can. It doesn't change the fact that the responses Greece took in the face of the pandemic were more timely, more well planned and ultimately more effective in combating the disease.

There are variables in every country and due to our position as a major hub for international travel we were more exposed, which means we should have seen the need for an earlier shutdown.

I suspect the scale of infection was always going to be greater here than in Greece. It is just that the countries who reacted earlier did much better, the countries who had proper systems in place for tracing did better, and the places that had clear, precise communication did much better.

Of course it would have helped our care homes enormously if any notice had been paid to the recommendations of Exercise Cygnus (Telegraph again, the absent Ippy would be pleased):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/exercise-cygnus-uncovered-pandemic-warnings-buried-government/


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 06, 2020, 09:44:19 AM
JeremyP


I had hoped you would comment as what you say is from a cooler, more impartial point of view I think, so thank you for doing so.
Do you think that, when post-pandemic statistics come out, will be the position of the death toll in Britain? An impossible question, I know! I suppose we'll never know which deaths have been included by European countries for instance and which have not. It seems that here anyone who died, whether directly from covid 19 or not is included if they were tested and found to have it in their systems.

It is an impossible question and perhaps the wrong statistic. "People who have died after being tested and found positive" is an easy and reliable metric to collect and thus is a useful indicator of how the epidemic is progressing. However, it doesn't tell you the "death toll". I would argue that there is no indicator that we are currently collecting that gives an accurate idea of the impact of coronavirus.

Here are some anecdotes that illustrate the problems.

The father of a friend of mine died in early April. He was about 90 years old and suffering from dementia and other health conditions, one of which got him. He was in a care home which meant the staff and doctors were unwilling to send hm to hospital for treatment because he wouldn't have been allowed back in to the home after he had recovered (if he had recovered). Instead they treated him at the home and it was mostly palliative, so, of course, he died. He was a casualty of the pandemic even though he never tested positive for coronavirus nor did his death certificate mention coronavirus (at least I think not, I didn't see it).

The husband of a friend of my parents was very sick in a care home. He had been tested several times for coronavirus and always been found negative. He had no symptoms of COVID19. He died and his death certificate had "suspected coronavirus" on it, even though there had never been any question of him having it while he was still alive. This particular issue of misreporting works both ways: I'm sure that there are lots of people who have died of things like pneumonia who should have had "coronavirus" on their death certificates but didn't. So even the "deaths where coronavirus is mentioned on the death certificate" measure has errors (and the ONS publications always acknowledge that, but the error bars get ignored by the media usually).

The excess deaths measure might seem like the best measure for the overall impact, but it is problematic too. Excess deaths measures deaths brought forward. Many people who die from COVID 19 would have died anyway over the course of the year or two afterwards. This time next year we may look back at the excess deaths for March 2020 to March 2021 and find no excess deaths for the whole period. In fact, unless there is a recurrence of coronavirus, next winter, I predict we will see substantially fewer deaths than normal.

I think the best measure for the impact of coronavirus is number of years of life lost i.e. how many more years might they have expected to live for had they not died from COVID 19. For the two people I mentioned above, this would be quite a small number. For a twenty year old, it might be sixty years. It gives a better idea of the impact of coronavirus than just counting deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 06, 2020, 10:03:30 AM
I suspect the scale of infection was always going to be greater here than in Greece.
Of course it was. The UK is almost unique in its population size, population density being a democracy and having a twat for a prime minister. The government has made a lot of mistakes, some of which are understandable and some of which are incomprehensible. However, making league tables of countries really isn't constructive.

We need to learn from this experience. We need to learn how to do better next time. Screaming about how much better Greece or New Zealand were won't help because Greece and New Zealand are not the UK. We need measures that work for the UK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 06, 2020, 10:17:12 AM
I'm glad you acknowledge the incomprehensible. Some don't. I wasn't screaming btw, neither was I sticking my fingers in my ears and not listening which some seem intent to do. We failed to learn from other countries which I find frustrating.

As to your previous post, I'm largely in agreement with that. The coding system, which I used to deal with at arms length thankfully, is not a precise tool. Your analysis of it cutting both ways in terms of reporting will not be far from the truth, imo.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 06, 2020, 10:25:43 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52935644

It is thought the virus was around earlier than first thought.

Our son-in-law, and possibly our grandson, had it in December, they had all the symptoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 06, 2020, 10:48:34 AM
Ooft



https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/06/david-gauke-johnson-will-regret-not-requiring-cummings-resignation.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on June 06, 2020, 10:53:13 AM
JeremyP

Thank you for your new posts, level-headed and clear as usual.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 06, 2020, 10:54:51 AM
JeremyP

Thank you for your new posts, level-headed and clear as usual.

What? Even when he called the PM a twat?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 06, 2020, 10:55:57 AM
What? Even when he called the PM a twat?
Particularly that, I would have thought.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on June 06, 2020, 10:58:04 AM
Particularly that, I would have thought.
Cite a post where I have said I am a supporter of all that the PM does!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 06, 2020, 10:59:14 AM
Cite a post where I have said I am a supporter of all that the PM does!!!
Cite a post where I said you were such a supporter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on June 06, 2020, 11:39:53 AM
What would be the motive for the current situation. 
Do they? In my experience, they frequently try to cover their arses. It's particularly a problem if their job depend on it.

For that to work properly, you have to have a culture where people can adit to their mistakes and learn from them. In the case of a democratic government, that's problematic because you inevitably get pilloried for your mistakes.

For various reasons the UK electorate has elected an, essentially, corrupt group to power. They value their own fortunes way above the welfare of the people.   

Quote
The government has plenty of scientific advisors telling them what they should be doing. Probably they are getting conflicting advice even from these people. Why would they listen to random people on the Internet screaming at them?

Of-course. That is why governments have to act objectively: Putting aside their personal or political interests; maintain good, meritocratic, organisations in place; and switch tactics or strategies when things don't work out the way that was expected.

Quote
The government has made a lot of mistakes and it would be great if we could sit down after this and dispassionately analyse what went wrong and how to do it better next time, but too many people will have too much to lose for that to happen. And I'm not just talking about the political appointees. The civil service is also not up to the job and nor are parts of the NHS (I'm thinking of the procurement department here).

The civil service and NHS have been mismanaged since well before the Tory governments, but both have actually been under attack under them. In many ways every country gets the government it deserves, but now we have someone, Cummings - without a single vote, in prime position and set to pull the system down.
     
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on June 06, 2020, 11:49:02 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52935644

It is thought the virus was around earlier than first thought.

Our son-in-law, and possibly our grandson, had it in December, they had all the symptoms.

Interesting article. We did know that the virus first infected humans in November but there is still so much we don't know about its progress through the population.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 06, 2020, 12:04:40 PM

Of course

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/05/tory-mp-bob-seely-attended-lockdown-barbecue-with-journalists
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 06, 2020, 12:10:38 PM
Of course

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/05/tory-mp-bob-seely-attended-lockdown-barbecue-with-journalists

'Do as I say don't do as I do!' >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 06, 2020, 12:14:39 PM
Seeing some reports of scammers using the idea of track and trace to get money. They phone up say they have been given your name as having been in contact with someone, say that name is confidential, and ask for £500 for tracing kit claiming it to be a one off charge. As ever be careful
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 06, 2020, 12:17:01 PM
Seeing some reports of scammers using the idea of track and trace to get money. They phone up say they have been given your name as having been in contact with someone, say that name is confidential, and ask for £500 for tracing kit claiming it to be a one off charge. As ever be careful

Evil scum will latch onto anything to try to make money. >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 06, 2020, 05:42:44 PM

Feckin eejits

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-52947630
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 08, 2020, 05:18:05 PM
Used a cash machine for the first time in 9 weeks today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on June 08, 2020, 05:43:01 PM
Nine weeks, gosh a long time. However I can't remember when i last used one. Since working from home everything has been bought online. It's nice to have a bit of cash though, isn't it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on June 08, 2020, 09:02:33 PM

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01685-y?utm_source=twt_nnc&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=naturenews

Quote
“Totally unreliable.” “A buggy mess.” Over the past month, software engineers have sharply criticized the code underpinning an influential coronavirus simulation by scientists at Imperial College London, one of several modelling exercises that helped sway UK politicians into declaring a lockdown. Some media articles even suggested that the simulation couldn’t be repeated by others — casting further doubt on the study. Now, a computational neuroscientist has reported that he has independently rerun the simulation and reproduced its results. And other scientists have told Nature that they had already privately verified that the code is reproducible.

The successful code testing isn’t a review of the scientific accuracy of the simulation, produced by a team led by mathematical epidemiologist Neil Ferguson. But it dispels some misapprehensions about the code, and shows that others can repeat the original findings.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on June 09, 2020, 08:26:31 AM
Hungary has only had a few hundred deaths. Africa has not had that many deaths compared with the rest of the world. Japan has 126 million people, and its death toll so far is around 900, with around 16,000 cases of coronavirus. 93% live in cities, and there has been no lockdown, apart from schools closing. Why has the virus hit some countries so much harder than others? I still haven't found an answer to this. Hygiene standards? Better general health? Something to do with pollution?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ekim on June 09, 2020, 08:48:38 AM
....... or God's Will?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on June 09, 2020, 09:00:23 AM
....... or God's Will?
I'm not thinking of that, in case you thought I was. I'm more interested in whether lockdown to the extent that it has been imposed was necessary (given the above Japanese stats).
The rules for Israel under Moses were that if someone showed signs and symptoms of a skin disease they were to isolate outside the camp for 7 days, and longer if the symptoms persisted. I can't recall any mention of people without symptoms having to isolate, but I might be wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 09, 2020, 09:15:21 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-52969679

I see the Government has dropped plans for primary school children in England to go back to school this term. Anyone with half a brain would realise trying to socially distance a classful of kids of that age is virtually impossible. ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 09, 2020, 09:17:19 AM
Hungary has only had a few hundred deaths. Africa has not had that many deaths compared with the rest of the world. Japan has 126 million people, and its death toll so far is around 900, with around 16,000 cases of coronavirus. 93% live in cities, and there has been no lockdown, apart from schools closing. Why has the virus hit some countries so much harder than others? I still haven't found an answer to this. Hygiene standards? Better general health? Something to do with pollution?

It will be multifactorial as you allude to - but two obvious things are that the Far East (generalising) are much more likely at a societal level to comply with rules laid down and are much more used to wearing masks which if adopted over a whole society makes transmission that much more difficult.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on June 09, 2020, 09:55:57 AM
It will be multifactorial as you allude to - but two obvious things are that the Far East (generalising) are much more likely at a societal level to comply with rules laid down and are much more used to wearing masks which if adopted over a whole society makes transmission that much more difficult.
True. But I think our lockdown has been pretty well observed. Japan's government advised everybody to avoid closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings (The three C's). That makes sense to me, and I would say the home is a closed space, unless windows kept open.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 09, 2020, 09:59:33 AM
True. But I think our lockdown has been pretty well observed. Japan's government advised everybody to avoid closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings (The three C's). That makes sense to me, and I would say the home is a closed space, unless windows kept open.
They also required people to self quarantine though when arriving in the country at an early stage - we still don't
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 09, 2020, 10:02:24 AM
Quote
But I think our lockdown has been pretty well observed.

Anecdotally I would disagree.

I can sit at my kitchen window and point to 3 houses where very little observation of the rules has taken place. Of course it could be just this little corner of West Sussex where rules were/are being flouted but I somehow don't think West Sussex is intrinsically anymore lawless than any other part of the UK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 09, 2020, 10:06:41 AM
Anecdotally I would disagree.

I can sit at my kitchen window and point to 3 houses where very little observation of the rules has taken place. Of course it could be just this little corner of West Sussex where rules were/are being flouted but I somehow don't think West Sussex is intrinsically anymore lawless than any other part of the UK.
Plus of course we had Cheltenham before lock down
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on June 10, 2020, 10:40:01 AM

Cracking "More or Less" episode this morning.

Also. on the Today programme, Michael Baker discussed actions used in NZ. He thinks a 4 to 6 week strict lockdown, on China/NZ model, can still eliminate the virus in the UK.

European scientists, including SAGE, made the mistake of treating the virus as similar to influenza rather than SARS. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 10, 2020, 10:58:18 AM
Cracking "More or Less" episode this morning.

Also. on the Today programme, Michael Baker discussed actions used in NZ. He thinks a 4 to 6 week strict lockdown, on China/NZ model, can still eliminate the virus in the UK.

European scientists, including SAGE, made the mistake of treating the virus as similar to influenza rather than SARS.
We won't have another lockdown unless there is a second wave
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on June 10, 2020, 11:21:25 AM
We won't have another lockdown unless there is a second wave

Well, that would be because of politics.

It is quite possible that we will have a second wave - in which case we will have economic/social damage spread over a year or more.

If we don't have a second wave - same effect: The virus level will come down but not be fully eliminated and the misery will drag on until an efficacious vaccine or treatment is available.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 10, 2020, 11:35:05 AM
Well, that would be because of politics.

It is quite possible that we will have a second wave - in which case we will have economic/social damage spread over a year or more.

If we don't have a second wave - same effect: The virus level will come down but not be fully eliminated and the misery will drag on until an efficacious vaccine or treatment is available.
The social and economic damage will already run over a year. There will definitely bea second wave of redundancies in almost all sectors of the economy in the last quarter of this year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on June 10, 2020, 12:02:19 PM
The social and economic damage will already run over a year. There will definitely bea second wave of redundancies in almost all sectors of the economy in the last quarter of this year.

True, but I was more thinking of how long we would keep digging, rather than when we actually manage to pull ourselves out - which could be up to a decade or more. If we had had a strict early lockdown, it would be ended around now with, likely, a quick economic recovery?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 10, 2020, 12:07:37 PM
True, but I was more thinking of how long we would keep digging, rather than when we actually manage to pull ourselves out - which could be up to a decade or more. If we had had a strict early lockdown, it would be ended around now with, likely, a quick economic recovery?
Agree - but as they say, we are where we are. The govt's used up a lot of political capital, and I suspect even if it wanted to have the strict lockdown, couldn't enforce it - particularly with other countries moving out of lockdown
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 10, 2020, 12:14:49 PM
And this:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/10/uk-economy-likely-to-suffer-worst-covid-19-damage-says-oecd?

What a great time to be cutting ties with a major trading bloc, eh?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on June 10, 2020, 12:51:27 PM

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-masks-study/widespread-mask-wearing-could-prevent-covid-19-second-waves-study-shows-idUSKBN23G37V/

“Our analyses support the immediate and universal adoption of face masks by the public,” said Richard Stutt, who co-led the study at Cambridge.

He said combining widespread mask use with social distancing and some lockdown measures, could be “an acceptable way of managing the pandemic and re-opening economic activity” before the development of an effective vaccine against COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the coronavirus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 10, 2020, 01:07:38 PM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-masks-study/widespread-mask-wearing-could-prevent-covid-19-second-waves-study-shows-idUSKBN23G37V/

“Our analyses support the immediate and universal adoption of face masks by the public,” said Richard Stutt, who co-led the study at Cambridge.

He said combining widespread mask use with social distancing and some lockdown measures, could be “an acceptable way of managing the pandemic and re-opening economic activity” before the development of an effective vaccine against COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the coronavirus.
I don't know why mask wearing is not already compulsory. When I go out, i see about 20% of people wearing masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 10, 2020, 01:31:02 PM

This is just going to get worse. We seem to have managed to get the worst of all possible scenarios on the UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52990612
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 10, 2020, 02:07:18 PM
I'm not thinking of that, in case you thought I was. I'm more interested in whether lockdown to the extent that it has been imposed was necessary (given the above Japanese stats).
The rules for Israel under Moses were that if someone showed signs and symptoms of a skin disease they were to isolate outside the camp for 7 days, and longer if the symptoms persisted. I can't recall any mention of people without symptoms having to isolate, but I might be wrong.

They were talking about leprosy which everybody in the ancient world was totally paranoid about. COVID 19 is not the same.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 10, 2020, 02:19:26 PM
This is just going to get worse. We seem to have managed to get the worst of all possible scenarios on the UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52990612

The thing that surprises me is that we haven't had more collapses of large companies in the hospitality business. I'd have thought a month with no income would be the end of most of our large restaurant chains.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 10, 2020, 02:27:24 PM
The thing that surprises me is that we haven't had more collapses of large companies in the hospitality business. I'd have thought a month with no income would be the end of most of our large restaurant chains.
I think due to the furlough scheme and the loan schemes, the govt have kept a lot of people ticking over. I think it's been where the govt have performed best BUT in many ways it's just kicked the can down the road.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on June 10, 2020, 03:33:16 PM
Just saw this in the Guardian blog - I thought the English chief medic had ruled this out.

Quote
No 10 confirmed that the two-metre rule could be reduced in England but not other parts of the UK. At PMQs Boris Johnson said it was being kept under review. He is under strong pressure to replace it with a one metre or 1.5 metre rule, which would make it much easier for schools and commercial premises, especially pubs and restaurants, to open in a Covid secure way. “Matters of public health are devolved, so it is a theoretical possibility that the position could be different in different parts of the UK,” the prime minister’s spokesman said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on June 10, 2020, 03:53:54 PM
Just saw this in the Guardian blog - I thought the English chief medic had ruled this out.

Whitty certainly didn't agree to reducing the 2m rule, but clearly Johnson is under pressure to do so.

I hope you all in Scotland realize how lucky you are to have Devi Shridar as an advisor!

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 10, 2020, 04:00:10 PM
Just been to do the weekly shop. As most people think 2 metres = 2 feet, can we please not reduce it any further.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 10, 2020, 04:05:05 PM
Just been to do the weekly shop. As most people think 2 metres = 2 feet, can we please not reduce it any further.
It's got worse in the last week. And people are not wearing masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on June 11, 2020, 10:25:37 AM


Some researchers say that the virus attacks people with different blood groups differently.  People with O group are relatively less susceptible. People with A group are relatively more susceptible. Not sure about other groups. 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096v2
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 11, 2020, 11:46:05 AM
And this is obviously world beating

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52995881
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 12, 2020, 11:15:57 AM
And this is obviously world beating

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52995881

Well according to the latest ONS figures, only one person in 1,700 has the disease (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/12june2020). That means that the average person hardly ever meets anybody with COVID19. Given the technical difficulties and the privacy issues listed in the article, it would be better to scrap the app. I think it's a waste of time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 12, 2020, 11:19:58 AM
Well according to the latest ONS figures, only one person in 1,700 has the disease (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/12june2020). That means that the average person hardly ever meets anybody with COVID19. Given the technical difficulties and the privacy issues listed in the article, it would be better to scrap the app. I think it's a waste of time.
Agree - but once again the govt is guilty of overpromising and underthinking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 12, 2020, 11:47:18 AM
Agree - but once again the govt is guilty of overpromising and underthinking.
They may have over promised, but they didn't under think it. Under thinking would have been rushing it into production without a trial. I think, apart from not managing expectations properly at the beginning of the trial, they've actually behaved quite responsibly for once.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 12, 2020, 12:07:52 PM
They may have over promised, but they didn't under think it. Under thinking would have been rushing it into production without a trial. I think, apart from not managing expectations properly at the beginning of the trial, they've actually behaved quite responsibly for once.
There is more than one way to underthink these things - they didn't work with other countries, they wanted their own splash so they didn't think through what impact that might have, The issues with data and a third party supplier were an obvious question so either they underthought that or they decided to just brush it under the carpet, SO if they weren't underthinking they were simply lying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on June 12, 2020, 12:40:40 PM
This is from a month ago, May 12th:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/12/coronavirus-tracking-tracing-apps-cant-work-south-korea-singapore-australia/

"If you think tracking apps will keep people safe as economies reopen, look to South Korea, Singapore, and Australia to see why you’re mistaken."

Wouldn't everything be so much easier if we had a government/leaders that people could trust?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 12, 2020, 01:05:37 PM
There is more than one way to underthink these things - they didn't work with other countries
Neither did many of the other countries.
Quote
they wanted their own splash so they didn't think through what impact that might have, The issues with data and a third party supplier were an obvious question
Which I think they addressed. The data issues were really not as bad as the detractors were making out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 12, 2020, 01:13:52 PM
This is from a month ago, May 12th:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/12/coronavirus-tracking-tracing-apps-cant-work-south-korea-singapore-australia/

"If you think tracking apps will keep people safe as economies reopen, look to South Korea, Singapore, and Australia to see why you’re mistaken."

Wouldn't everything be so much easier if we had a government/leaders that people could trust?

Yes it would but I don't see how that article relates. If anybody in our government bothered to read it (and why should they?) they clearly didn't just assume it was right. The government did their own trial and the conclusion seems to be that the app doesn't have enough value to move forward with it. There's plenty to criticise the government over, so why make up criticisms about something that they seem to have been responsible about?

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on June 12, 2020, 08:10:58 PM
The government decided to open our borders to Norway, Iceland, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuainia. Good stuff as far as I'm concerned, as we all have a similar, that is, a good situation. Sweden is not included in that. The Swedes were, apparently, very disappointed at Finland because of that (what about the other countries?). I'm sure Sweden still sees us as a vassal state. Maybe they need to look in the mirror, particularly their failed corona strategy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 12, 2020, 09:44:09 PM
Of course

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-chief-nurse-dominic-cummings-ruth-may-daily-briefing-downing-street-a9562741.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 12, 2020, 10:08:58 PM
Just seen this on the Guardian Live blog about Michael Rosen - I didn't realise he was ill, and it isn't clear if he had Coronavirus or not. Hopefully he'll recover and get back to his excellent 'Word of Mouth' Podcast (a must if you like words and their use in English).
It would indeed be Covid

https://amp.theguardian.com/books/2020/jun/12/michael-rosen-returns-to-twitter-after-long-battle-with-coronavirus?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 14, 2020, 12:27:36 PM
Andrew Rawnsley in The Guardian. He's not wrong:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/14/even-tories-increasingly-fear-they-have-inflicted-the-worst-of-all-worlds-on-britain?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 14, 2020, 05:23:11 PM
Indeed


https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/14/dominic-cummings-no-10-vote-leave-brexit-referendum?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 15, 2020, 11:02:40 PM
And tragedy in Yemen - again


https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/12/middleeast/yemen-coronavirus-deaths-intl/index.html?fbclid=IwAR1ZB08cj_kRleeWzgWsPmTmHgNSiNvJ3sI49TFGOIO3TtuBwTzDBhbvgQg
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 16, 2020, 10:44:25 AM
Great credit to Marcus Rashford on this campaign about free school meals


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53059683
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on June 16, 2020, 12:56:17 PM
Great credit to Marcus Rashford on this campaign about free school meals
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53059683

Yes
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 16, 2020, 01:45:28 PM
Yes

And he's successful

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53065806
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 17, 2020, 06:41:40 PM
This is not satire


https://www.ft.com/content/8ea1c992-89f8-11ea-a109-483c62d17528?shareType=nongift&fbclid=IwAR2JWofJb1AAUXPhnJeVKs0Et5GZ-3J1Ft8baoV9VaVP6qvxnrB01Wp7I0c
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on June 17, 2020, 08:51:57 PM
What is the point of referring us to an article we cannot access?

Do you think that you could summarise the material you consider we should read?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 17, 2020, 09:18:25 PM
What is the point of referring us to an article we cannot access?

Do you think that you could summarise the material you consider we should read?
I don't know when people don't have access. I don't have subscription and can. And it's the sort of thing that would have to be read to get. It isn't a thing that would summarise well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on June 17, 2020, 09:27:40 PM
I don't know when people don't have access. I don't have subscription and can. And it's the sort of thing that would have to be read to get. It isn't a thing that would summarise well.

Posting a link to an FT article will never work unless it has been flagged as "Coronavirus: Free to read" by FT.

It's also against their terms of use to copy/paste an extract. However if you post some suitable descriptive text (instead of only a link with no indication of what the article is about) - then that can be googled for - and usually will take the reader to the perfectly accessible FT article. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on June 17, 2020, 09:31:05 PM
I tried to access the article earlier without success but found this:

https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2020/06/17/this-extraordinary-account-of-luxury-lockdown-in-kensington-is-really-raising-hackles/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 17, 2020, 09:34:47 PM
Try doing a search on the title


The awkward lessons of my luxury lockdown in Kensington
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on June 17, 2020, 10:01:57 PM
Thasswot i did  :o. Is it different to your FT article?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 17, 2020, 10:06:54 PM
Thasswot i did  :o. Is it different to your FT article?
No, you should be able to access the article itself though
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 18, 2020, 01:53:14 PM
But it was a world beating system!!!



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53095336
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 18, 2020, 02:11:15 PM
But it was a world beating system!!!



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53095336

I'm sceptical that it will ever work properly after the IoW trial.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on June 18, 2020, 09:40:05 PM
After the demise of the Track and Trace app - John Crace's take on competence.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jun/18/our-ministers-show-how-world-beating-they-are-all-over-again
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 19, 2020, 04:27:10 PM
And more track and trace incompetence



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/technology-53105642?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 19, 2020, 09:12:42 PM
'After receiving criticism for comments about Game of Thrones, Dominic Raab insists he meant no offence to the great people of Westeros, and that he remains hopeful of a trade deal.'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 20, 2020, 02:31:52 PM
Worrying news from America

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53088354
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 20, 2020, 03:43:37 PM
After the demise of the Track and Trace app - John Crace's take on competence.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jun/18/our-ministers-show-how-world-beating-they-are-all-over-again

It's interesting because there wasn't really much wrong in the way they approached developing the app. They developed an app. They weren't sure how well it would work so they did a proof of concept. The PoC showed up some problems so they went back to the drawing board.The app was clearly oversold by the government.

As for the issues with measuring distances, they seem perfectly credible problems to me. Physical obstructions will affect signal strength. Does it matter? Well, I suppose, if you are the person who was three metres away and now has to self isolate, that might matter.

As for the collaboration with Apple, what has probably happened is that somebody on the dev team talked to somebody in Apple about some technical issues and as that travelled up the command chain that morphed into "we are talking to Apple" and then "we are collaborating with Apple" and then "the UK is collaborating with Apple".

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on June 20, 2020, 06:03:48 PM
Worrying news from America

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53088354

Yes.  Florida is exploding right now very near where I live (a few miles from the university where the cases among the student-age is rapidly climbing.)

Been tracking the numbers of deaths in the UK for a little over a month now.  It seems the numbers are trending fewer now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Alan Burns on June 20, 2020, 11:32:01 PM
Worrying news from America

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53088354
Is it any wonder after the blatant disregard of social distancing during many of the anti racist demonstrations?
Lets hope we can all re focus on the fact that all lives matter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 21, 2020, 12:13:36 AM
Quote
Lets hope we can all re focus on the fact that all lives matter.

Missing the point.

A house is on fire in a street. All the houses matter.

Now do you expect the fire brigade to hose down all the houses or just the one on fire?

Breast Cancer Awareness - oh, how often have I had to chide people with "All cancers matter"?

Why don't you stop with the stupidity?

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on June 21, 2020, 12:23:37 AM
Is it any wonder after the blatant disregard of social distancing during many of the anti racist demonstrations?
Lets hope we can all re focus on the fact that all lives matter.

The reality is, once you delve into what life in America has been like for people of color? Black lives have never, ever mattered. Even worse than that, as I just read in The New Yorker entitled "The History That James Baldwin Wanted America to See," Baldwin, a contemporary of Martin Luther King, once said that for Blacks "after the sun goes down" anything could happen. If you were Black? You, your wife, your innocent sons and daughters were at the mercy of the night riders who terrorized, brutalized, abused into absolute, defiled submission. There's an effort now underway to document and identify all the American Blacks who were lynched in America during this awful and vulnerable time. Fathers, sons, brothers hung in the family's front-yard trees for all the family to see.  And the very race who did this well into the 20th century are upset now because they want to be included among whose lives matter. If it were me, I would change the slogan to say, "Black Lives Matter Too."  That really does reflect the truth behind this new movement (May God be with them at every step.)

PS, the leading medical advisors are telecasting right now that the single most Coronavirus epicenter in the entire world will be from Trump's Tulsa, Oklahoma rally.  I'm watching live nearly 20K people, hardly anyone wearing masks, crowded, literally shoulder to shoulder, inside an enclosed arena for the next five hours for a Trump (ego fest) rally.  It's incomprehensible to me that anyone would be okay with this. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 21, 2020, 01:30:00 AM
Is it any wonder after the blatant disregard of social distancing during many of the anti racist demonstrations?
Lets hope we can all re focus on the fact that all lives matter.
I note you mention the BLM   protests but not these


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_anti-lockdown_protests

It makes you look very racist.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 21, 2020, 08:30:33 AM
Is it any wonder after the blatant disregard of social distancing during many of the anti racist demonstrations?
Lets hope we can all re focus on the fact that all lives matter.

There is a person who thinks his life matters more than that of any other, and is willing to put the health and wellbeing of his country at risk to protect his own interests! >:( >:( >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 21, 2020, 09:18:57 AM

I take your general point. In fact, what "Black Lives Matter" means is that Black lives matter too. The point is that they haven't seemed to matter in the past.

Anyway, the pedant in me has to react to your poorly chosen analogies.

Missing the point.

A house is on fire in a street. All the houses matter.

Now do you expect the fire brigade to hose down all the houses or just the one on fire?
The fire brigade may get to the point that they feel the the other houses may also catch fire and then they will start hosing them down to prevent that from happening.

Quote
Breast Cancer Awareness - oh, how often have I had to chide people with "All cancers matter"?
Actually, yes you do. There tend to be a few diseases that get all the awareness and funding for research. Cancer research in the UK is quite well funded but some other diseases like Alzheimer's get far less attention and funding despite their prevalence. Breast cancer is probably the biggest big C in terms of awareness. Your analogy would work better if somebody had come up to you in Movember and said "all cancers matter".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 21, 2020, 09:21:50 AM

PS, the leading medical advisors are telecasting right now that the single most Coronavirus epicenter in the entire world will be from Trump's Tulsa, Oklahoma rally.  I'm watching live nearly 20K people, hardly anyone wearing masks, crowded, literally shoulder to shoulder, inside an enclosed arena for the next five hours for a Trump (ego fest) rally.  It's incomprehensible to me that anyone would be okay with this.

Apparently, not all the Trumpsters are as stupid as they seem. Tulsa rally fails to draw expected crowds (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53121488)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on June 21, 2020, 09:54:31 AM
Disappointed to see AB parroting the "All lives matter" guff spouted by t' rump and his racist admirers. Of course all lives matter, but the point of the slogan "black lives matter" is that black lives seem often not to matter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 21, 2020, 09:57:32 AM
I take your general point. In fact, what "Black Lives Matter" means is that Black lives matter too. The point is that they haven't seemed to matter in the past.

Anyway, the pedant in me has to react to your poorly chosen analogies.
The fire brigade may get to the point that they feel the the other houses may also catch fire and then they will start hosing them down to prevent that from happening.
Actually, yes you do. There tend to be a few diseases that get all the awareness and funding for research. Cancer research in the UK is quite well funded but some other diseases like Alzheimer's get far less attention and funding despite their prevalence. Breast cancer is probably the biggest big C in terms of awareness. Your analogy would work better if somebody had come up to you in Movember and said "all cancers matter".

I have to be a little pedantic myself.

I don't dispute that Alzheimers is underfunded, but as I specifically mentioned "all Cancers matter" I don't see that your rebuttal works in that respect. Also the analogy about the house works because you would concentrate more on the house on fire than the rest in the street in the hope that an improvement would be gained for the whole street. Rather like there would be an improvement for the whole community if black lives did indeed matter.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Alan Burns on June 21, 2020, 10:37:34 AM
Missing the point.

A house is on fire in a street. All the houses matter.

Now do you expect the fire brigade to hose down all the houses or just the one on fire?

Breast Cancer Awareness - oh, how often have I had to chide people with "All cancers matter"?

Why don't you stop with the stupidity?
The point I was making was that many people, especially in the US, are still dying of corona virus, but the efforts to help prevent these deaths have been hampered by many demonstrators ignoring social distancing rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 21, 2020, 10:39:21 AM
The point I was making was that many people, especially in the US, are still dying of corona virus, but the efforts to help prevent these deaths have been hampered by many demonstrators ignoring social distancing rules.

And yet many other ignore social distancing rules and you chose not to highlight them. Funny that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 21, 2020, 10:43:17 AM
The point I was making was that many people, especially in the US, are still dying of corona virus, but the efforts to help prevent these deaths have been hampered by many demonstrators ignoring social distancing rules.
But to highlighted BLM protests ignoring the earlier lockdown protests by amongst others white supremacists that were not condemned by Trump. Why?

And chose to.do it using the All Lives Matter phrase associated with those who play down the racism against black people in the US.

Why?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Alan Burns on June 21, 2020, 02:36:39 PM
But to highlighted BLM protests ignoring the earlier lockdown protests by amongst others white supremacists that were not condemned by Trump. Why?

And chose to.do it using the All Lives Matter phrase associated with those who play down the racism against black people in the US.

Why?
I condemn violent protests of any sort because they invariably cause more harm than good.

As an aside -
One of the highlights of my life was being invited (along with my future wife) to join up with the Caribbean Christian community in London to play guitar during prayer and worship sessions.  We discovered a new dimension of uninhibited joy in their enthusiastic celebration of the Christian life.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 21, 2020, 02:49:42 PM
I condemn violent protests of any sort because they invariably cause more harm than good.

As an aside -
One of the highlights of my life was being invited (along with my future wife) to join up with the Caribbean Christian community in London to play guitar during prayer and worship sessions.  We discovered a new dimension of uninhibited joy in their enthusiastic celebration of the Christian life.

You didn't mention violence. You just mentioned social distancing, and completely ignored the earlier protests which were not condemned by Trump. You have now doubled down by implying that all BLM protests were violent, and then tried the'Some of my best friends are...' trope. I suspect your racism may be unconscious but your posts here read strongly of a racist attitude
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on June 21, 2020, 02:56:23 PM
You didn't mention violence. You just mentioned social distancing, and completely ignored the earlier protests which were not condemned by Trump. You have now doubled down by implying that all BLM protests were violent, and then tried the'Some of my best friends are...' trope. I suspect your racism may be unconscious but your posts here read strongly of a racist attitude
AB's mention of the Caribbean Christians seemed excruciatingly patronising.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on June 21, 2020, 06:58:36 PM
Apparently, not all the Trumpsters are as stupid as they seem. Tulsa rally fails to draw expected crowds (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53121488)

Yes, seeing this in the news today.  The estimates were about a third of 19K.  When you think about it, that's still over 6000 people, most all not wearing masks, definitely not social distancing, and inside and enclosed area for at least a couple of hours.  (I've been logging the John's Hopkins data for awhile now. I'm going to add Oklahoma to my list just to see how much the cases change over the next month.)

Also, the news is reporting that teens using tiktok and one other site were able to create over a million fake tickets for Trump's event.  Not sure how, or if, this affected the small number that showed up, but it definitely is embarrassing for Trump who bragged all over conservative media about the 1M number.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 21, 2020, 07:06:10 PM
Yes, seeing this in the news today.  The estimates were about a third of 19K.  When you think about it, that's still over 6000 people, most all not wearing masks, definitely not social distancing, and inside and enclosed area for at least a couple of hours.  (I've been logging the John's Hopkins data for awhile now. I'm going to add Oklahoma to my list just to see how much the cases change over the next month.)

Also, the news is reporting that teens using tiktok and one other site were able to create over a million fake tickets for Trump's event.  Not sure how, or if, this affected the small number that showed up, but it definitely is embarrassing for Trump who bragged all over conservative media about the 1M number.
At least he can drink a glass of water with 1 hand even if he then then throws it away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on June 21, 2020, 07:12:42 PM
 ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 22, 2020, 09:23:40 AM
The point I was making was that many people, especially in the US, are still dying of corona virus, but the efforts to help prevent these deaths have been hampered by many demonstrators ignoring social distancing rules.

That was my concern when I saw the protests in London. But think about this:

at the time, the ONS was saying about one person in a thousand has COVID19 at any given time and 70% of them report no symptoms. That means, on the demo in London (100,000), only about seventy people had the virus, assuming all the symptomatic people stayed at home. Furthermore, if you are in contact with a person with coronavirus, the probability is that you won't catch the disease. The seventy people will have been in contact with lots of other people, so they will pass it on to some, but the blip will be much smaller than you might think and as the protests coincided with some relaxation of the social distancing rules, it will probably be lost in the noise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 22, 2020, 09:27:58 AM

Also, the news is reporting that teens using tiktok and one other site were able to create over a million fake tickets for Trump's event.  Not sure how, or if, this affected the small number that showed up, but it definitely is embarrassing for Trump who bragged all over conservative media about the 1M number.

It probably depressed the numbers. If you've got free tickets and maybe a long drive to get to Tulsa and Trump says "we distributed a million tickets", you'll probably think, I won't get near the place, I won't bother going at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on June 22, 2020, 09:30:04 AM
a long drive to get to Tulsa...
24 hours, maybe?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 22, 2020, 09:37:15 AM
At least he can drink a glass of water with 1 hand even if he then then throws it away.

What does it say about somebody, if drinking a glass of water with one hand gets them a round of applause?

It doesn't seem to have worked though. People are analysing why he threw the glass away instead of putting it down. The theory is that he needs to keep his little finger under it to support it.

Or maybe it did work: if people are analysing the glass, they are not analysing children in cages (remember that? It's still happening) or packing the judiciary with Republican stooges or any of the other really horrible things Trump is doing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Alan Burns on June 22, 2020, 10:50:35 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BA7pdABvpnc

Amazing!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 22, 2020, 12:00:53 PM

HAve to agree with Kyrgios here. It does seem 'bone-headed'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/53131665
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 22, 2020, 12:03:41 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BA7pdABvpnc

Amazing!
Indeed, this all hail to the blood god is amazing
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on June 22, 2020, 05:20:56 PM
...if people are analysing the glass, they are not analysing children in cages (remember that? It's still happening) or packing the judiciary with Republican stooges or any of the other really horrible things Trump is doing.

Yes, this!

On a lighter note, there's a video being put to different song selections of Trump having returned from the Tulsa rally back to the WhiteHouse, tie undone, face so grim, looking so defeated.  The song selections are so clever.  My favorite, was Johnny Cash's version of the Nine Inch Nails song, "Hurt."  The lyrics are so fitting.  This is all on Twitter, btw, and I can imagine Trump is furious about it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on June 22, 2020, 10:42:34 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BA7pdABvpnc

Amazing!
Indeed, but it's a pity they included the dreadful last verse beginning "When we've been there...": it isn't by John Newton (it dates from the mid-19th Century), it's got nothing to do with the theme of the rest of the hymn,  the rhyme scheme is wrong, it's got a horribly trite internal rhyme in line three, and the theology is, to say the least, suspect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on June 23, 2020, 01:52:55 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BA7pdABvpnc

Amazing!

There have been several Christian Zoom collaborations local to where I live, and I have enjoyed listening to them. This reminds me of these. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Alan Burns on June 23, 2020, 11:18:19 AM
Perhaps the most influential and inspirational of the Christian video responses to coronavirus is summed up in this recent reprise of the original :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9EK8dAXl6I

And this is the original which was first broadcast on 6th March, now with over 17 million views:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zp6aygmvzM4

My dream is that we could all be united in such praise and worship.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 23, 2020, 11:22:02 AM
Perhaps the most influential and inspirational of the Christian video responses to coronavirus is summed up in this recent reprise of the original :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9EK8dAXl6I

And this is the original which was first broadcast on 6th March, now with over 17 million views:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zp6aygmvzM4

My dream is that we could all be united in such praise and worship.

Praising god for what for pity's sake? ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 23, 2020, 11:32:56 AM
Perhaps the most influential and inspirational of the Christian video responses to coronavirus is summed up in this recent reprise of the original :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9EK8dAXl6I

And this is the original which was first broadcast on 6th March, now with over 17 million views:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zp6aygmvzM4

My dream is that we could all be united in such praise and worship.
Your god is a god of blood and pain. You worship and praise a monster
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Alan Burns on June 23, 2020, 11:39:15 AM
Praising god for what for pity's sake? ::)
I praise God for everything.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 23, 2020, 11:41:08 AM
I praise God for everything.

Including all the pain and suffering it has caused, if it exists and is responsible for creation?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on June 23, 2020, 11:59:24 AM
I'm sure it's possible to be an atheist without becoming embittered and negative, but NS and LR provide no evidence for that, and one reason I came back to a liberal version of Christianity after my last year out was that I found myself becoming that way, and didn't like what I was becoming.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 23, 2020, 12:07:01 PM
I'm sure it's possible to be a Christian without becoming unthinking and uncritical but AB provides no evidence for that, which is one of the reasons I remain an atheist.

Drivel, babble, assert vaguely about an outcome that may be true for you but not anybody else, and you have a whole lot of nothing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 23, 2020, 12:12:32 PM
I'm sure it's possible to be an atheist without becoming embittered and negative, but NS and LR provide no evidence for that, and one reason I came back to a liberal version of Christianity after my last year out was that I found myself becoming that way, and didn't like what I was becoming.

I have no problem whatsoever with moderate Christians, as I have said times without number.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 23, 2020, 12:26:59 PM
Anyway returning to Coronavirus, yet another example of the governments excellence in dealing with this pandemic.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jun/23/no-10-not-sharing-covid-19-data-on-local-outbreaks-say-councils?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 23, 2020, 12:42:38 PM
I'm sure it's possible to be an atheist without becoming embittered and negative, but NS and LR provide no evidence for that, and one reason I came back to a liberal version of Christianity after my last year out was that I found myself becoming that way, and didn't like what I was becoming.
  The irony is strong with this one
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on June 23, 2020, 01:07:00 PM
I have no problem whatsoever with moderate Christians, as I have said times without number.
Indeed you have - "Many times, many, many times", like Lady Counterblast, nee Beatrice Clissold, but your attitude to some Christians is irrelevant: we're talking about your attitude to God. You remind me of someone-or-other's description of someone else as "the kind of atheist who doesn't so much disbelieve in God, as have a personal grudge against him". Why so much hatred for a being you don't even believe exists?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 23, 2020, 01:09:55 PM
Indeed you have - "Many times, many, many times", like Lady Counterblast, nee Beatrice Clissold, but your attitude to some Christians is irrelevant: we're talking about your attitude to God. You remind me of someone-or-other description of someone else as "the kind of atheist who doesn't so much disbelieve in God, as have a personal grudge against him". Why so much hatred for a being you don't even believe exists?
This is one of the stupid tropes that people use when people use hypotheticals. It's seems like a desperate attempt to avoid the issue that Alan Burns thinks  his god found his contact lens for him, but has set up a world full of extraordinarily painful diseases that kill children. I'm not embittered at all but I don't like vapid stupidity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 23, 2020, 01:50:49 PM
Indeed you have - "Many times, many, many times", like Lady Counterblast, nee Beatrice Clissold, but your attitude to some Christians is irrelevant: we're talking about your attitude to God. You remind me of someone-or-other's description of someone else as "the kind of atheist who doesn't so much disbelieve in God, as have a personal grudge against him". Why so much hatred for a being you don't even believe exists?

My attitude towards the Biblical god character is very reasonable. One would have every right to have a grudge against it if its character is as the Bible portrays it as being, which is evil in the extreme. One hopes it is a very human creation and doesn't exist in reality.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 23, 2020, 04:54:49 PM
I have just come across this.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52480133

A church in Camberwell  is selling an oil they claim will cure the Covid-19 virus. I hope these scam merchants are prosecuted. >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 23, 2020, 05:10:24 PM
I praise God for everything.

471,000 deaths worldwide from COVID19. You are praising God for that?

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 23, 2020, 05:13:19 PM
471,000 deaths worldwide from COVID19. You are praising God for that?
Alan has previously stated that he regards the Holocaust as a miracle
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Alan Burns on June 23, 2020, 05:28:34 PM
Alan has previously stated that he regards the Holocaust as a miracle
I have never stated such thing.
I believe I claimed that miracles occurred within the dreadful evil of the holocaust.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 23, 2020, 05:29:55 PM
I have never stated such thing.
I believe I claimed that miracles occurred within the dreadful evil of the holocaust.

God, if it exists, should have prevented the holocaust.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 23, 2020, 05:33:44 PM
I have never stated such thing.
I believe I claimed that miracles occurred within the dreadful evil of the holocaust.
We had a discussion once that since you believe  all actions of your idea of 'free will' to be miracles, and the act of the Holocaust to be acts of 'free will' then it is a set of miracles. Are you saying you disagree with this now?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Alan Burns on June 23, 2020, 05:44:30 PM
471,000 deaths worldwide from COVID19. You are praising God for that?
I praise God for everything, because without God, there would nothing to praise and no one to do the praising.
I can praise God for the human freedom which allows us to choose between good and evil, and for the natural freedom in nature which has brought this world to exist as it is.  With both these freedoms there are consequences which are not God's will - because in order for freedom to exist, God must delegate power to human will and nature.  What God can do and does do to is to give us strength to endure whatever comes if we stay faithful to Him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 23, 2020, 05:49:28 PM
I praise God for everything, because without God, there would nothing to praise and no one to do the praising.
I can praise God for the human freedom which allows us to choose between good and evil, and for the natural freedom in nature which has brought this world to exist as it is.  With both these freedoms there are consequences which are not God's will - because in order for freedom to exist, God must delegate power to human will and nature.  What God can do and does do to is to give us strength to endure whatever comes if we stay faithful to Him.
and the Holocaust being part free will which you think id a miracle means you give thanks to your thug god for it, amazing grace, indeed
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Alan Burns on June 23, 2020, 05:54:20 PM
We had a discussion once that since you believe  all actions of your idea of 'free will' to be miracles, and the act of the Holocaust to be acts of 'free will' then it is a set of miracles. Are you saying you disagree with this now?
I did say that every act of human free will is a miracle, because such freedom does not occur in nature. But it is human will not God's will.  The freedom we all have to choose between good and evil is a miraculous power given to us by God - but that does not mean that our choice is God's choice.  The way we use this power will determine our ultimate destiny.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 23, 2020, 05:57:38 PM
I did say that every act of human free will is a miracle, because such freedom does not occur in nature. But it is human will not God's will.  The freedom we all have to choose between good and evil is a miraculous power given to us by God - but that does not mean that our choice is God's choice.
So if every 'free will' decision is a miracle, and the Holocaust is the result of many 'free will' decisions, in what way is it not a miracle.

And you also said on this thread that you give praise your god for everything, so therefore you praise your god for the Holocaust
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 23, 2020, 06:10:48 PM
So in England you will be able to get a haircut but there is still an aim to keep 1m + in England, but nail bars aren't be allowed to open. How do you do a 1m+ haircut but not a nail colour?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on June 23, 2020, 06:13:23 PM
I did say that every act of human free will is a miracle, because such freedom does not occur in nature. But it is human will not God's will.  The freedom we all have to choose between good and evil is a miraculous power given to us by God - but that does not mean that our choice is God's choice.  The way we use this power will determine our ultimate destiny.

Pish - Covid is yet another example of the so-called 'Problem of Evil' and indicates that if your version of 'God' exists (which I personally doubt) it is either perverse or else it is incompetent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Alan Burns on June 23, 2020, 07:38:09 PM
Pish - Covid is yet another example of the so-called 'Problem of Evil' and indicates that if your version of 'God' exists (which I personally doubt) it is either perverse or else it is incompetent.
By what authority can you possibly judge God?
God has given us the knowledge to discern between Good and evil, and He gives us the freedom to choose between them.
He also allows nature to take its course with good and bad consequences.
If God had given us all a fluffy pink world to live in where no one suffers or needs any help from others, would we be better people, or would we just become self centred individuals living in a loveless world?
Yes, I do praise God for everything - even though I do not fully understand it all - because I love God and I know that He loves us all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 23, 2020, 07:41:12 PM
By what authority can you possibly judge God?
God has given us the knowledge to discern between Good and evil, and He gives us the freedom to choose between them.
He also allows nature to take its course with good and bad consequences.
If God had given us all a fluffy pink world to live in where no one suffers or needs any help from others, would we be better people, or would we just become self centred individuals living in a loveless world?
Yes, I do praise God for everything - even though I do not fully understand it all - because I love God and I know that He loves us all.
If you think you can't judge your god , then you can't judge it worthy of worship. Your post is an illogical contradicstion
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: torridon on June 23, 2020, 07:49:57 PM
..
Yes, I do praise God for everything - even though I do not fully understand it all - because I love God and I know that He loves us all.

That sums up pretty much why we ignore your posts, it is pretty obvious you've succumbed to the cardinal sin of letting your emotions get in the way of objectivity.   If you want to know truth, you first have to learn to put your emotions to one side....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on June 23, 2020, 07:50:29 PM
By what authority can you possibly judge God?
God has given us the knowledge to discern between Good and evil, and He gives us the freedom to choose between them.
He also allows nature to take its course with good and bad consequences.
If God had given us all a fluffy pink world to live in where no one suffers or needs any help from others, would we be better people, or would we just become self centred individuals living in a loveless world?
Yes, I do praise God for everything - even though I do not fully understand it all - because I love God and I know that He loves us all.

Then you are, in the face of issues like Covid, a credulous fool - it may be that you are a sincere credulous fool, but you are a fool nonetheless.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on June 23, 2020, 07:53:19 PM
If you think you can't judge your god , then you can't judge it worthy of worship. Your post is an illogical contradicstion
I think you'll be able to make an armchair experts judgment. I should imagine there's  no issues with proficiency in that direction.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 23, 2020, 07:56:32 PM
I think you'll be able to make an armchair experts judgment. I should imagine there's  no issues with proficiency in that direction.
Idiotic drivel
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on June 23, 2020, 10:22:13 PM
So if every 'free will' decision is a miracle, and the Holocaust is the result of many 'free will' decisions, in what way is it not a miracle.

And you also said on this thread that you give praise your god for everything, so therefore you praise your god for the Holocaust
You sound sillier and more obtuse with every post on this thread. You should quit while you're behind.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on June 24, 2020, 06:59:40 AM
I heard an interesting statistic yesterday - apparently of those who have had covid 19, the atheists are twice as likely not to die! A friend was telling me she had read this and when I asked how the information was discovered, she said that the report had explained the researchers had checked census information. No link, I'm afraid, my friend is a non-computer person.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on June 24, 2020, 07:27:17 AM
I heard an interesting statistic yesterday - apparently of those who have had covid 19, the atheists are twice as likely not to die! A friend was telling me she had read this and when I asked how the information was discovered, she said that the report had explained the researchers had checked census information. No link, I'm afraid, my friend is a non-computer person.
Probably because the Christians are older.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 24, 2020, 08:25:00 AM
You sound sillier and more obtuse with every post on this thread. You should quit while you're behind.

NS is ahead of the game, it is you who needs to catch up. ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 24, 2020, 09:05:49 AM
You sound sillier and more obtuse with every post on this thread. You should quit while you're behind.
Any chance you might try and point out why you think I am wrong about AB's position?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on June 24, 2020, 09:19:01 AM
Any chance you might try and point out why you think I am wrong about AB's position?
Certainly. AB argues that free will is miraculous. However, if we have it, we have the ability to make wrong choices. A whole series of very wrong choices led to the holocaust. That is hardly the same as saying that the holocaust is miraculous. There are problems with the free-will defence of evil, but that isn't one of them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 24, 2020, 09:34:41 AM
Certainly. AB argues that free will is miraculous. However, if we have it, we have the ability to make wrong choices. A whole series of very wrong choices led to the holocaust. That is hardly the same as saying that the holocaust is miraculous. There are problems with the free-will defence of evil, but that isn't one of them.


If something is as a result of a set of miracles, then in what way is it not miraculous. You haven't argued against it, you have simply made an assertion. I am not making a general point about free will and evil, rather a specific point about AB's particular position.




I note you ignored the second paragraph

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ekim on June 24, 2020, 09:40:13 AM

God has given us the knowledge to discern between Good and evil, and He gives us the freedom to choose between them.
.

Except that it looks like his intention was that man should not make such judgements:
"But from the tree of the knowledge of good and evil, you must not eat from it; for on the day you eat from it,  you shall be dying."
Gen 2:17
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on June 24, 2020, 11:29:00 AM
Sweden's chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, "mastermind" behind Sweden's corona strategy, now seems to be shifting the blame to the rest of the EU. In an interview on Swedish radio he said that for years he has been talking with other experts on how to deal with such pandemics. He claims Sweden has followed a "classic pandemic strategy", whatever that's supposed to mean, and that he trusted the rest of the EU would follow suit, that is, "until the whole world went mad" and went into lockdown.

Sorry I haven't post a link to the article I read but I couldn't find an English version.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 24, 2020, 12:24:23 PM
I reckon the opening of pubs is reckless as people who drink too much are unlikely to bother about social distancing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 24, 2020, 12:48:45 PM
I reckon the opening of pubs is reckless as people who drink too much are unlikely to bother about social distancing.

I agree. And anecdotally I did the weekly shop this morning at Sainsburys and many more people seem to have ditched any attempt at maintaining 2 metres already.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 24, 2020, 01:35:14 PM
I agree. And anecdotally I did the weekly shop this morning at Sainsburys and many more people seem to have ditched any attempt at maintaining 2 metres already.

Tesco seem to be quite strict about social distancing at present. I always wear a mask and disposable rubber gloves when shopping there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on June 24, 2020, 01:38:38 PM
I reckon the opening of pubs is reckless as people who drink too much are unlikely to bother about social distancing.
It can be enforced, and why do you assume pub-goers drink too much?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 24, 2020, 01:44:26 PM
I reckon the opening of pubs is reckless as people who drink too much are unlikely to bother about social distancing.

I am not at all happy about the reasoning behind bringing the two metre rule down to one metre. I don't think it's based on the science at all but on pressure from people who want to get back to normal.

Having said that, let's see what the situation is on July 3rd, in a week and a half. If everything trends the way it is now, we will only have a handful of deaths each day, perhaps none at all most days. Then let's reopen the pubs but with the understanding that they might then have to close again, if the incidence of coronavirus starts going up again.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 24, 2020, 01:51:44 PM
I agree. And anecdotally I did the weekly shop this morning at Sainsburys and many more people seem to have ditched any attempt at maintaining 2 metres already.

Even at the height, you couldn't keep two metres away from everybody in Sainsbury's. There really isn't a problem with walking past somebody in the aisle at closer than two metres as long as you don't stop and have a chat.

Think about the statistics. Currently one person in 1,700 picked at random from the UK population has COVID19. That means that, if there are 1,000 people in your supermarket, there is about a 55% chance that not one of them has coronavirus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on June 24, 2020, 03:55:41 PM
Even at the height, you couldn't keep two metres away from everybody in Sainsbury's. There really isn't a problem with walking past somebody in the aisle at closer than two metres as long as you don't stop and have a chat.

Our grocery stores have made the aisles one way, which is a good idea.  It was difficult to get used to, but once you've been corrected by someone who is annoyed with you, it's easier to remember next time.   ;D

Also to your calculation of 55% being virus free, it struck me how here in Florida, when the shutdown started, hardly anyone was infected and we were acting like it was around ever corner.  Now, that it actually is around every corner, we're all open.  The governor has issued a warning for the bars and full-bar restaurants that they will be shut down if they're caught not following the mask and social distancing recommendations.  (Can't imagine how you can do that in a bar setting, which are all designed to pack as many people into a small a space as possible.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 24, 2020, 04:18:12 PM
Even at the height, you couldn't keep two metres away from everybody in Sainsbury's. There really isn't a problem with walking past somebody in the aisle at closer than two metres as long as you don't stop and have a chat.

Think about the statistics. Currently one person in 1,700 picked at random from the UK population has COVID19. That means that, if there are 1,000 people in your supermarket, there is about a 55% chance that not one of them has coronavirus.

Yes, I know. My point was that any pretence at social distancing seemed to be pretty much gone with some shoppers, so even if I was managing 1 metre b4, I can't now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 24, 2020, 05:29:57 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53061288

A trial of a UK Covid-19 vaccine is taking place, I hope it is successful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 24, 2020, 05:58:08 PM
Yes, I know. My point was that any pretence at social distancing seemed to be pretty much gone with some shoppers, so even if I was managing 1 metre b4, I can't now.
Just tell people to back off.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on June 24, 2020, 06:13:08 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53061288

A trial of a UK Covid-19 vaccine is taking place, I hope it is successful.

Yes, it would be nice if it could be done quickly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 24, 2020, 06:36:13 PM
Just tell people to back off.

They don't appear to hear me through my mask! And that's another thing. Masks. Maybe 15% of shoppers wearing them.

(And they're bloody hot in this weather)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 24, 2020, 06:40:21 PM
They don't appear to hear me through my mask! And that's another thing. Masks. Maybe 15% of shoppers wearing them.

(And they're bloody hot in this weather)
That seems a high estimate to me. I wouldn't based on my experience put it higher than 10%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 24, 2020, 07:33:19 PM
They don't appear to hear me through my mask! And that's another thing. Masks. Maybe 15% of shoppers wearing them.

(And they're bloody hot in this weather)
Try coughing then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 24, 2020, 07:35:29 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53061288

A trial of a UK Covid-19 vaccine is taking place, I hope it is successful.
Just to be clear this is the second Potential vaccine developed in the UK. There are quite a number of others being developed throughout the world. However, there’s no guarantee that any of them will be effective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on June 24, 2020, 09:17:17 PM
Just to be clear this is the second Potential vaccine developed in the UK. There are quite a number of others being developed throughout the world. However, there’s no guarantee that any of them will be effective.

Dr Fauci said in an NPR interview that one pharma company has been testing one vaccine.  He's read the preliminary report, and he's cautiously optimistic. It's still phase one, but he said the interesting finding here was how the vaccine induced neutralizing antibodies instead of binding antibodies.  Neutralizing antibodies block the virus from replicating.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on June 24, 2020, 09:33:42 PM
flowergirl said:- 

Our grocery stores have made the aisles one way, which is a good idea.  It was difficult to get used to, but once you've been corrected by someone who is annoyed with you, it's easier to remember next time.   ;D

Also to your calculation of 55% being virus free, it struck me how here in Florida, when the shutdown started, hardly anyone was infected and we were acting like it was around ever corner.  Now, that it actually is around every corner, we're all open.
______

Oh fg, this isn't really a humorous subject but your post made me laugh out loud. It's the way you tell it! Keep it up please.  ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on June 25, 2020, 12:49:17 AM

Oh fg, this isn't really a humorous subject ..

So agree.  It really isn't. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 25, 2020, 08:32:53 AM
Just to be clear this is the second Potential vaccine developed in the UK. There are quite a number of others being developed throughout the world. However, there’s no guarantee that any of them will be effective.

We shall see, but they appear to be quite hopeful about this one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 25, 2020, 09:11:55 AM
We shall see, but they appear to be quite hopeful about this one.

They're hopeful about them all, but there's a long way to go and many uncertainties. Coronaviruses are not rare and have been with us for millennia and nobody has managed to develop a vaccine for one before. It's not even known if catching the virus confers permanent immunity on the survivors.

The main advantage of this latest vaccine is that, if it works, it is really easy to manufacture in bulk, and by "bulk" I mean seven billion doses bulk.

Be hopeful, but don't be surprised if it all comes to nothing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 25, 2020, 10:13:46 AM
They're hopeful about them all, but there's a long way to go and many uncertainties. Coronaviruses are not rare and have been with us for millennia and nobody has managed to develop a vaccine for one before. It's not even known if catching the virus confers permanent immunity on the survivors.

The main advantage of this latest vaccine is that, if it works, it is really easy to manufacture in bulk, and by "bulk" I mean seven billion doses bulk.

Be hopeful, but don't be surprised if it all comes to nothing.

What a little ray of sunshine you are! ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 25, 2020, 10:37:14 AM
What a little ray of sunshine you are! ::)

I think Jeremyp is just recognising the reality of the situation. Viruses, particularly coronaviruses are difficult things to control.

In recent history HIV (a different type of virus - retrovirus) has proved so far impossible to develop a vaccine for, we rely on other methods, mainly suppression via medication, of controlling the virus. The same may well be true of Covid 19 in that it becomes a manageable disease, rather than curable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 25, 2020, 12:00:39 PM
What a little ray of sunshine you are! ::)

Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 25, 2020, 03:09:11 PM
Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

True.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 25, 2020, 03:58:09 PM
Utter madness


https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/18539567.amp/?__twitter_impression=true


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-53176717
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 25, 2020, 04:11:53 PM
People are crazy! >:( I bet quite a number will be overburdening the hospitals with sunstroke.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 25, 2020, 04:38:50 PM

It was the weather what done it

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-uk-jacob-rees-mogg-death-toll-weather-a9585616.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1593096141
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 25, 2020, 04:44:25 PM
Rees-Mogg and Trump obviously have a lot in common! >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 25, 2020, 06:15:24 PM
And more idiocy


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-53176472
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on June 25, 2020, 07:04:53 PM
Rees-Mogg and Trump obviously have a lot in common! >:(

Did I mention here the book I'm currently reading by Nancy MacLean entitled Democracy in Chains: The Deep History of the Radical Right's Stealth Plan for America?  MacLean researched a collaboration between Charles Koch (the brother) and Nobel Prize winning economist James McGill Buchanan (who MacLean says his views on democracy and the economy make Ayn Rand seem liberal.)  Together, they've devised a plan that ultimately puts the oligarchy in control, makes everything private, and eventually change the rule of law to give them autonomous control (no more rights of the common man.)

I recommend everyone here read it. It's the playbook the hard Right are following, the obvious favorite of Steve Bannon (and the role public media plays,) and most importantly the obvious joint effort to undermine democracy and the right to vote. It certainly explains why Trump, Rees-Mogg, and Johnson so eerily look like marionettes being played by the same puppeteer. (In this case, though, the puppeteer has never been Putin.  It's the oligarchy.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 25, 2020, 09:43:50 PM
Feckin eejits

.https://www.scotsman.com/news/crime/heavy-police-presence-police-move-clear-crowds-kelvingrove-park-2895748
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 26, 2020, 02:51:31 PM
Ffs!

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/18536400.amp/?ref=twtrec&__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on June 26, 2020, 03:02:57 PM
Ffs!

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/18536400.amp/?ref=twtrec&__twitter_impression=true
Show some guts. That's easy for a fat cunt like Johnson to say.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 26, 2020, 03:15:17 PM
Ffs!

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/full-list-of-the-331-tory-mps-who-voted-against-weekly-testing-of-nhs-and-care-staff/25/06/?fbclid=IwAR3sJjYJyU6nNncilOHGU1Rb-ARK-B33rjOTYJxX8Kq8f98hjfFvwVgKGOw
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 27, 2020, 12:06:30 PM
What a dangerous eejit, Pence is!



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/coronavirus-cases-usa-pence-covid-19-retail-shops-open-a9588251.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 27, 2020, 12:11:08 PM
What a dangerous eejit, Pence is!



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/coronavirus-cases-usa-pence-covid-19-retail-shops-open-a9588251.html

Trump and Pence are like peas in a pod. >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 27, 2020, 12:17:54 PM
Trump and Pence are like peas in a pod. >:(
Not realky, Pence is a career politician and obviously a committed Christian. Trump is a mad narcissist. It just so happens that their causes have overlapped.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 27, 2020, 03:49:56 PM
Just ordered draft beer and cocktails from bar block and a half away online. By the time I got there , the order was about ready to go. 5 minutes later on the balcony with pint. A bit of the new normal that I might get used to.


One of the restaurants in the West End of Glasgow did 1,000 covers for meals prepared ready to cook at home
 Again I think many restaurants will do that as part of their business after they are open for business.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 27, 2020, 06:44:53 PM
Somewhat confused as to why people are being allowed to fly but not go to the theatre.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 28, 2020, 09:16:30 PM
Not realky, Pence is a career politician and obviously a committed Christian. Trump is a mad narcissist. It just so happens that their causes have overlapped.
I also don't think he's an "eejit" which makes him more dangerous.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 28, 2020, 09:25:32 PM
Somewhat confused as to why people are being allowed to fly but not go to the theatre.

Flying is the only practical way to get from A to B in some instances. You don't need to go to the theatre.

Also, the air conditioning in a plane makes it difficult to catch the virus through airborne means. There is a danger that you can catch off surfaces - like the back of the seat in front of you - but that can be mitigated through cleaning. The air con in theatres is nowhere near as good - if it exists at all.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 28, 2020, 09:34:38 PM
Flying is the only practical way to get from A to B in some instances. You don't need to go to the theatre.

Also, the air conditioning in a plane makes it difficult to catch the virus through airborne means. There is a danger that you can catch off surfaces - like the back of the seat in front of you - but that can be mitigated through cleaning. The air con in theatres is nowhere near as good - if it exists at all.
how many of the flights on planes are in any way necessary? Also cinemas will be open.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 28, 2020, 10:12:33 PM
Ffs!


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-cumbria-53210470?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on June 29, 2020, 06:39:09 AM
Ffs!


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-cumbria-53210470?__twitter_impression=true
This might sound a bit old-fashioned, but I find myself thinking the question: Just how were these people brought up? Weren't they taught anything about care and responsibility?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 29, 2020, 07:22:02 AM
This might sound a bit old-fashioned, but I find myself thinking the question: Just how were these people brought up? Weren't they taught anything about care and responsibility?

Not old fashiond at all. I now live on the south coast and was unfortunate enough to witness the hoards that descended on the coast during last weeks hot weather. Not a care for the environment or locals,  but more importantly no respect for the virus currently in circulation.

Still if we have successive governments that place selfish opportunism as being of primary importance, should we expect anything more?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 29, 2020, 11:14:24 AM
Sadly that sort of selfish behaviour would occur whichever party was in power, imo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 29, 2020, 11:43:41 AM
Sadly that sort of selfish behaviour would occur whichever party was in power, imo.

Rubbish. Different parties can and do set different policies which are quite capable of changing, in the longer run, the behaviour of society as a whole.

You are just resorting to the "they are all the same" argument which is simply not true.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 29, 2020, 11:46:00 AM
Rubbish. Different parties can and do set different policies which are quite capable of changing, in the longer run, the behaviour of society as a whole.

You are just resorting to the "they are all the same" argument which is simply not true.

In your opinion. The Labour party screwed things up very badly when Corbyn was leader, he would have made a terrible PM, no better than Boris.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on June 29, 2020, 11:48:50 AM
In your opinion. The Labour party screwed things up very badly when Corbyn was leader, he would have made a terrible PM, no better than Boris.
Corbyn is at least a decent bloke with decent principles, whereas Johnson, like most Tories, is an unprincipled, greedy rat-bag,
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 29, 2020, 11:51:04 AM
Corbyn is at least a decent bloke with decent principles, whereas Johnson, like most Tories, is an unprincipled, greedy rat-bag,

Nothing decent about Corbyn he supported the IRA at one time!  >:( I think Kier Starmer  would make a good PM.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on June 29, 2020, 11:54:58 AM
Nothing decent about Corbyn he supported the IRA at one time!  >:( I think Kier Starmer  would make a good PM.
He supported the Irish republican cause; he opposed the violence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 29, 2020, 12:03:35 PM
In your opinion. The Labour party screwed things up very badly when Corbyn was leader, he would have made a terrible PM, no better than Boris.

Unfortunately unsupported statements of that nature are not convincing arguments to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 29, 2020, 12:13:39 PM
No matter, you are entitled to your opinion as I am entitled to mine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on June 29, 2020, 12:21:58 PM
No matter, you are entitled to your opinion as I am entitled to mine.
"Comment is free, but facts are sacred" - CP Scott
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not to their own facts" - Daniel Moynihan
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 29, 2020, 12:30:49 PM
No matter, you are entitled to your opinion as I am entitled to mine.

That is a stupid statement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 29, 2020, 01:02:35 PM
Sadly that sort of selfish behaviour would occur whichever party was in power, imo.
The problem is this sort of behaviour has in various ways been encouraged by the UK govt lately - firstly there was the lack of actions on Cummings, then we have had the corruption of the decision of Jenrick as regards Richard Desmond's planning decision - with again no action taken, and then Johnson's idiotic wiffling in reply to Peter Kyle telling him  be brave and therefore encouraging people to break the rules. If people feel the rules don't apply to those charge and this  govt is providing lots of evidence of that- then they won't obey them,
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 29, 2020, 01:05:46 PM
No matter, you are entitled to your opinion as I am entitled to mine.
A flat earther is entitled to their opinion - it does not make it a valid one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 29, 2020, 01:30:43 PM
That is a stupid statement.

Why?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on June 29, 2020, 01:34:39 PM
Why?
Because opinions need to be based on facts. see my new signature.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 29, 2020, 01:45:39 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-53217095

It looks as if Leicestershire might have an extension of the lockdown as it has had a spike in new cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on June 29, 2020, 01:53:12 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-53217095

It looks as if Leicestershire might have an extension of the lockdown as it has had a spike in new cases.
You are entitled to your opinion, just as am entitled to mine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 29, 2020, 02:26:57 PM
how many of the flights on planes are in any way necessary?
I've no idea, but given the current quarantine rules, probably quite a high proportion.

Hmmm, maybe we can open theatres if the audience is prepared to self isolate for fourteen days afterwards.

Quote
Also cinemas will be open.

Theatres will also be able to re-open on 4th July.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-outbreak-faqs-what-you-can-and-cant-do/coronavirus-outbreak-faqs-what-you-can-and-cant-do-after-4-july

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 29, 2020, 02:40:19 PM
I've no idea, but given the current quarantine rules, probably quite a high proportion.

Hmmm, maybe we can open theatres if the audience is prepared to self isolate for fourteen days afterwards.

Theatres will also be able to re-open on 4th July.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-outbreak-faqs-what-you-can-and-cant-do/coronavirus-outbreak-faqs-what-you-can-and-cant-do-after-4-july
Ah thanks
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 29, 2020, 02:53:02 PM
Why?

Because you sound like that man you admire so much.

'Some Very Fine People on Both Sides'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 29, 2020, 03:14:47 PM
Because you sound like that man you admire so much.

'Some Very Fine People on Both Sides'

Ehhhhhhhh?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 29, 2020, 06:26:03 PM
https://www.leaderlive.co.uk/news/18548499.scam-warning-police-reports-person-selling-covid-vaccine-wrexham/

In Wrexham, North Wales a man is going from door to door selling a covid-19 'vaccine' for £70 a time. I hope no one would be silly enough to buy it
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 29, 2020, 09:19:52 PM
Meanwhile in Leicester


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-53229371
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 29, 2020, 09:22:30 PM
And the UK


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53222182
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 30, 2020, 09:09:55 AM
Meanwhile in Leicester


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-53229371

One of my work colleagues, who comes from Leicester, said that there was much speculation in the city that Eid which occurred on the 12-13th May might cause a surge in infections. Leicester has quite a large Muslim population. It will be interesting to see if, in six weeks time, we have a similar surge in Liverpool.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on June 30, 2020, 09:21:15 AM
United approach? What united approach? The Westminster government at its' divisive best. https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2020/06/29/keeping-us-safe/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 30, 2020, 09:49:32 AM
One of my work colleagues, who comes from Leicester, said that there was much speculation in the city that Eid which occurred on the 12-13th May might cause a surge in infections. Leicester has quite a large Muslim population. It will be interesting to see if, in six weeks time, we have a similar surge in Liverpool.
6 weeks seems like quite a long window given what we know. Is it that something like Eid along with the gradual loosening of restrictions are part of that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 30, 2020, 12:24:39 PM
So were going to "build, build, build" our way out of the economic crisis caused by Covid 19.

Cummings isn't even trying with the 3 word slogans now. Lazy assed fucker.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 30, 2020, 03:04:54 PM
So were going to "build, build, build" our way out of the economic crisis caused by Covid 19.

Cummings isn't even trying with the 3 word slogans now. Lazy assed fucker.
And 5bn won't do a lot of building.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on June 30, 2020, 06:11:23 PM
One of my work colleagues, who comes from Leicester, said that there was much speculation in the city that Eid which occurred on the 12-13th May might cause a surge in infections. Leicester has quite a large Muslim population. It will be interesting to see if, in six weeks time, we have a similar surge in Liverpool.

It didn't happen in Leicester, the recent upsurge was well past the incubation period from Eid.  What's happening in Liverpool which might cause a surge in six weeks?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 30, 2020, 06:21:57 PM
It didn't happen in Leicester, the recent upsurge was well past the incubation period from Eid.  What's happening in Liverpool which might cause a surge in six weeks?
Celebration of Liverpool winning the Premier League
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 01, 2020, 05:38:43 PM
I'll clap when the govts gives staff a pay rise, and weekly testing. Not when the fuckers vote against both.


https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/10/call-for-final-national-clap-on-nhss-72nd-birthday
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 01, 2020, 07:38:30 PM
6 weeks seems like quite a long window given what we know. Is it that something like Eid along with the gradual loosening of restrictions are part of that?

I should have made it clear that the idea that it was Eid that started Leicester's problems is speculation. However, if it was Eid, six weeks is about right. Eid would cause the initial surge and this would be multiplied over the next few weeks until the trend was noticeably above the national trend. And yes, the loosening of the restrictions would have to be part of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 01, 2020, 07:45:28 PM
It didn't happen in Leicester, the recent upsurge was well past the incubation period from Eid.

It wouldn't be noticeable after one "generation" of incubation. Think about the initial surge. The virus was definitely in this country in January. At the beginning of March there were only two hospitalisations and people were only taking it seriously at all because of what was happening in Italy.

Quote
What's happening in Liverpool which might cause a surge in six weeks?
It might do. Most of the irresponsible gatherings were outdoors, so maybe Liverpool will dodge the bullet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on July 01, 2020, 10:24:10 PM
I should have made it clear that the idea that it was Eid that started Leicester's problems is speculation. However, if it was Eid, six weeks is about right. Eid would cause the initial surge and this would be multiplied over the next few weeks until the trend was noticeably above the national trend. And yes, the loosening of the restrictions would have to be part of it.
Why didn't it happen in Bradford, or other places with high Muslim populations?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 01, 2020, 11:03:45 PM
Why didn't it happen in Bradford, or other places with high Muslim populations?

Bradford has been mentioned in the news as being one of the places they are watching intently. It currently has an infection rate running at 6 times the national average. (That might not be quite right in the details as I had just spilt hot chocolate on myself, so I was temporarily distracted from the news)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on July 01, 2020, 11:06:47 PM
 ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 02, 2020, 10:21:24 AM
Ultra stupid Danish football fans

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/53257858
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 02, 2020, 10:22:41 AM

Entitled prick

https://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/boris-johnsons-dad-stanley-flouts-22288273


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on July 02, 2020, 10:44:53 AM
Entitled prick

https://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/boris-johnsons-dad-stanley-flouts-22288273
To what is he entitled more than anyone else? You mean that he has a sense of entitlement, but I hope this tiresome phrase will soon disappear, and we can go back to calling people "arrogant" etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 02, 2020, 10:50:54 AM
To what is he entitled more than anyone else? You mean that he has a sense of entitlement, but I hope this tiresome phrase will soon disappear, and we can go back to calling people "arrogant" etc.
Language changes - he's still a prick
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on July 02, 2020, 10:54:10 AM
Language changes - he's still a prick
Indeed  he is, but some language changes should be resisted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 02, 2020, 11:06:59 AM
Johnson's father should have the full weight of the law upon him for breaking the lockdown rules. :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 02, 2020, 12:41:31 PM
As I've just been to do my weekly shop and as again the vast majority see no reason to wear masks, is it time for mask wearing to be mandatory?

https://tinyurl.com/maskshuff
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 02, 2020, 12:53:56 PM
As I've just been to do my weekly shop and as again the vast majority see no reason to wear masks, is it time for mask wearing to be mandatory?

https://tinyurl.com/maskshuff
Will be in shops in Scotland from next week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53252760
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 02, 2020, 12:55:38 PM
Will be in shops in Scotland from next week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53252760

A sensible decision.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on July 02, 2020, 02:34:36 PM
This morning my Sensory Support Team guide walked with me into town on the alternative  rute. Alongside several sections of narrow pavement hedges had been allowed to overgrow, with branches, some thorny, protruding to an extent which would have made it risky if I had been on my own. I phoned the Highways number, but they are not taking calls. In fact, I shall not try to go that way again until I know it is safe.

The area of town I wanted to walk in was not at all busy and I bought an item from the Health Food shop and then we walked back.   Apparently there are signs asking people to walk on the left hand side of the, at that point, wide pavement, but there was no problem.

This time again I could have done it alone, but it would have been too stressful. That word isn't exactly right, because if I decide to do something, then I get on with it, but it would have been much more tiring.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on July 02, 2020, 04:48:21 PM
To what is he entitled more than anyone else? You mean that he has a sense of entitlement, but I hope this tiresome phrase will soon disappear, and we can go back to calling people "arrogant" etc.

I couldn't agree more and hate the way the word 'entitled' is now used in some quarters. A person may have 'a sense of entitlement' or be 'entitled to' something but is not 'entitled'. It's horrible & careless.

However......back to Stanley Johnson. He is arrogant about travelling but I've come across it quite a lot during the pandemic so he isn't alone. If he wasn't a well known person we wouldn't hear of it. That's not excusing him but it's typical of the press to latch on to a name.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 02, 2020, 04:52:16 PM
Quote
A person may have a sense of entitled or be entitled to something but is not 'entitled'. It's horrible & careless.

Surely it should read "a person may have a sense of entitlement" ?

As we all seem to be in a pedantic mood I thought I'd get a piece of the action  ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on July 02, 2020, 04:57:31 PM
Festina celeritate magis minusve. I will correct immediatamente.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sebastian Toe on July 02, 2020, 05:03:33 PM
Will be in shops in Scotland from next week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53252760
Are pubs included once they open?
A pint and a straw please!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 02, 2020, 05:54:57 PM
Johnson's father should have the full weight of the law upon him for breaking the lockdown rules. :(
What actual laws has he broken?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 02, 2020, 06:06:33 PM

Hmm...

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-new-cases-rise-in-36-local-authorities-in-england-12019667
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 02, 2020, 06:50:07 PM
Hmm...

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-new-cases-rise-in-36-local-authorities-in-england-12019667

Are you surprised? We’ve relaxed the lockdown. What else would you expect?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 02, 2020, 07:12:39 PM
Are you surprised? We’ve relaxed the lockdown. What else would you expect?
Did that happen the same way in New Zealand?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 03, 2020, 05:08:56 PM
Watching the discussions in the UK about possibly shutting internal borders like the Scottish one to England, one of the things that people might not have known is many of the Australian states closed their borders internally.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on July 03, 2020, 08:24:37 PM
Australia is a federation. Individual states have some executive control over their own borders. The United Kingdom is a highly centralised union with minimal powers devolved to lower levels of government. In England, Whitehall effectively micromanages anything it can.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 03, 2020, 08:48:17 PM
Australia is a federation. Individual states have some executive control over their own borders. The United Kingdom is a highly centralised union with minimal powers devolved to lower levels of government. In England, Whitehall effectively micromanages anything it can.
Except the rules in Australia didn't allow them to control the internal borders. They just made the decision to do so. And in the UK, the Welsh did effectively close the border for some transit, and given the powers the Scottish Govt has here it could in theory have a form of border closure. That the Tory UK Govt want to play down the differences is unsurprising if tedious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on July 03, 2020, 09:37:38 PM
This morning my Sensory Support Team guide walked with me into town on the alternative  rute. Alongside several sections of narrow pavement hedges had been allowed to overgrow, with branches, some thorny, protruding to an extent which would have made it risky if I had been on my own. I phoned the Highways number, but they are not taking calls. In fact, I shall not try to go that way again until I know it is safe. The area of town I wanted to walk in was not at all busy and I bought an item from the Health Food shop and then we walked back.   Apparently there are signs asking people to walk on the left hand side of the, at that point, wide pavement, but there was no problem. This time again I could have done it alone, but it would have been too stressful. That word isn't exactly right, because if I decide to do something, then I get on with it, but it would have been much more tiring.
'Stressful's fine by me. As for the d*****d overhanging branches? Tell me about it, Susan! I wear those plastic wrap around anti-glare glasses from Cobolt just to protect my eyes from the blasted things - and I wear a baseball cap as well, in the hope that the skip will finf the obstacle before I do. You could try buying a bowing skip from your local sports shop which will serve the same purpose. I can't access a supermarket alone anymore; where once it was a breeze with the long cane, now those arrows and stickers mean I'm snookered. At least there are a few small shops in the town which, by reason of their size, can't change their set up, meaning that I can still access them myself. For larger shopping, I have to depend on giving a list to a carer. It's very limiting, isn't it? And don't even start me on trying to find a seat which isn't taped off on my local bus....no long cane invented can find the damn tape......
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on July 04, 2020, 08:12:34 AM
'Stressful's fine by me. As for the d*****d overhanging branches? Tell me about it, Susan! I wear those plastic wrap around anti-glare glasses from Cobolt just to protect my eyes from the blasted things - and I wear a baseball cap as well, in the hope that the skip will finf the obstacle before I do. You could try buying a bowing skip from your local sports shop which will serve the same purpose. I can't access a supermarket alone anymore; where once it was a breeze with the long cane, now those arrows and stickers mean I'm snookered. At least there are a few small shops in the town which, by reason of their size, can't change their set up, meaning that I can still access them myself. For larger shopping, I have to depend on giving a list to a carer. It's very limiting, isn't it? And don't even start me on trying to find a seat which isn't taped off on my local bus....no long cane invented can find the damn tape......
Fortunately, I do not need to use any public transport at the moment, but re headgear, I found very early on that a visor (bought from local sports shop - closed recently) is a help because it enables me to avoid the distraction of light from above.
Listening to the In touch programmes, as well as talking to the Guide chap, I think that the Gov have failed to consider the blind, who are assumed to have carers!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on July 04, 2020, 09:00:47 AM
Fortunately, I do not need to use any public transport at the moment, but re headgear, I found very early on that a visor (bought from local sports shop - closed recently) is a help because it enables me to avoid the distraction of light from above.
Listening to the In touch programmes, as well as talking to the Guide chap, I think that the Gov have failed to consider the blind, who are assumed to have carers!
   




 Been there, had the rant......
As you know, I help (dis)organise a blind club, whose motto is 'May contain nuts'.
Despite this, we have excellent relations with the local authority, to the extent that they often ask US for advice!
Anyway, I've heard of folk just put on the register in February, with no rehab training, and, because of lock down, no input from sensory impaired experts.
With no way to be mobile on their own, yet in good physical health, they are not shielded, and therefore technically don't qualify for additional help.
We're glad to say that the local authority ignored the rules, and treats them as if they are shielded.
OK, this won't help them mentally, but it keeps them going till things improve.
As for the rest of us?
if we're competent with a cane, we're left to our own devices. I have a carer who does my shopping; others have to rely on families or friends.
Yes, I agree completely; 'out of sight, out of mind' seems to be the way we are treated.
Trouble is, though, when we live alone, we have to try and cope with the shifting sands of events, and things which seemed so normal for us three months ago are simply beyond reach. I wouldn't be surprised if this has a serious effect on the mental health, resilience and confidence of the Visually Impaired community as a whole
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 04, 2020, 11:44:00 AM
As so often  hmmm...


https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/pillar-2-testing-data-local-government-covid-19-test-figures-local-lockdowns-what-explained-460435
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 04, 2020, 05:29:34 PM
I've no idea, but given the current quarantine rules, probably quite a high proportion.

Hmmm, maybe we can open theatres if the audience is prepared to self isolate for fourteen days afterwards.

Theatres will also be able to re-open on 4th July.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-outbreak-faqs-what-you-can-and-cant-do/coronavirus-outbreak-faqs-what-you-can-and-cant-do-after-4-july

It appears not


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/theater/britain-arts-future-coronavirus.html?smid=fb-share&fbclid=IwAR1-RnQ4wm_hxgbzQdeSZkZCr4OmJtAq2OBBX5q5IKT4_vPKj_hAJ0ZBSUU
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 04, 2020, 06:05:11 PM

Hmmm


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53288388

Camra national chairman Nik Antona said: "The government have not really been helpful with their guidance, leaving it to the last minute in a lot of cases.

"What you are finding is, some of the pubs haven't even bothered opening today - they want to see what's going to happen."

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 04, 2020, 06:18:13 PM
Apparently Farage has been reported to the police for going to a pub when he was supposed to be self isolating, having just come back from the US after attending one of Trump's rallies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 04, 2020, 06:20:47 PM
Apparently Farage has been reported to the police for going to a pub when he was supposed to be self isolating, having just come back from the US after attending one of Trump's rallies.
Pity the UK govt has undermined the regulations continually.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 05, 2020, 09:37:05 AM
Pity the UK govt has undermined the regulations continually.

No it hasn't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 05, 2020, 10:13:15 AM
Interesting article here about Japan and how Covid was dealt with there and the possible reasons for their success in avoiding a high death toll:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53188847
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 05, 2020, 10:23:38 AM
Pope Catholic, bear shit woods etc etc


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53296689
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 05, 2020, 10:39:46 AM
Pope Catholic, bear shit woods etc etc


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53296689

My thougths too. What on earth did they think would happen? Its not exactly a surprise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 05, 2020, 12:24:00 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52898928

I found this article quite interesting. For some the days of going to the office may end, and they will continue to work from home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 06, 2020, 10:35:31 AM
Matt Hancock 'explaining' govt advice on the Today programme this morning.


“There are two things we do: First of all, we mitigate the risk, but ultimately, even when you mitigate risk by having- not having social distancing, that increases significantly the risk of social distancing and we’re simply not there yet.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 06, 2020, 10:39:51 AM
Matt Hancock 'explaining' govt advice on the Today programme this morning.


“There are two things we do: First of all, we mitigate the risk, but ultimately, even when you mitigate risk by having- not having social distancing, that increases significantly the risk of social distancing and we’re simply not there yet.”

You see that's what we need - clarity and then not having it, thereby increasing the risk of clarity.

I'll say we are not there yet!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 06, 2020, 10:46:21 AM
Interesting stuff

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8493239/Expert-Covid-19-dormant-world-emerging-China.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 06, 2020, 11:01:03 AM
Extremely worrying:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53300784
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 06, 2020, 11:52:20 AM
Extremely worrying:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53300784

I agree.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 06, 2020, 03:17:29 PM
And more extremely worrying stuff. For those who say I'd like to catch it and get it over with, which I've heard on here and IRL, you may want to reconsider that strategy:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/06/coronavirus-covid-19-mild-symptoms-who
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 06, 2020, 03:53:06 PM
And more extremely worrying stuff. For those who say I'd like to catch it and get it over with, which I've heard on here and IRL, you may want to reconsider that strategy:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/06/coronavirus-covid-19-mild-symptoms-who?

I can't get the link to download properly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 06, 2020, 04:01:20 PM
Try this:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/06/coronavirus-covid-19-mild-symptoms-who
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 06, 2020, 04:04:37 PM
Try this:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/06/coronavirus-covid-19-mild-symptoms-who

Still no go.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 06, 2020, 04:16:53 PM
That's odd, works for me.  :(

The basic thrust of it is that some people who have had the virus in the "mild" version have ongoing health issues, I'll quote some of the article here:

Quote
Some of these side effects can be fatal. According to Dr Christopher Kellner, a professor of neurosurgery at Mount Sinai hospital in New York, “mild” cases of Covid-19 in which the patient was not hospitalized for the virus have been linked to blood clotting and severe strokes in people as young as 30. In May, Kellner told Healthline that Mount Sinai had implemented a plan to give anticoagulant drugs to people with Covid-19 to prevent the strokes they were seeing in “younger patients with no or mild symptoms”.  Doctors now know that Covid-19 not only affects the lungs and blood, but kidneys, liver and brain – the last potentially resulting in chronic fatigue and depression, among other symptoms. Although the virus is not yet old enough for long-term effects on those organs to be well understood, they may manifest regardless of whether a patient ever required hospitalization, hindering their recovery process.   

(I'll try to get the link to work another way)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 06, 2020, 04:18:47 PM
That's odd, works for me.  :(

The basic thrust of it is that some people who have had the virus in the "mild" version have ongoing health issues, I'll quote some of the article here:

(I'll try to get the link to work another way)

That is really scary!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 06, 2020, 07:30:17 PM
Ffs!

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-europe-53309424?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 06, 2020, 08:54:36 PM
Shift the blame Boris:

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-care-home-coronavirus_uk_5f036569c5b612083c5fed73?ncid
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 06, 2020, 11:17:01 PM
Shift the blame Boris:

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-care-home-coronavirus_uk_5f036569c5b612083c5fed73?ncid
Lying hypocritical  cunt
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 07, 2020, 03:12:49 PM
Tragic

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/07/07/florida-carsyn-davis-coronavirus/#click=https://t.co/3sPhF6REDJ
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 07, 2020, 03:34:46 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53324101

Workers who have Covid-19 tests paid for by their employers will have to pay tax on them as they are regarded as a benefit. YE GODS!!!! >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 07, 2020, 05:30:13 PM
Bolsonaro tests positive.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-53319517
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 07, 2020, 06:14:26 PM
Lying hypocritical  cunt
But he was probably right.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dicky Underpants on July 08, 2020, 03:20:20 PM
Bolsonaro tests positive.

I'm probably not the only one indulging in a little Schadenfreude.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-53319517
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 08, 2020, 03:48:16 PM
If Trump tested positive for the virus I wonder if he would think it was of no real consequence if that were to be the case?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 08, 2020, 04:01:59 PM
If Trump tested positive for the virus ...

I would be concerned. Trump is in his 70's and is overweight, but has no other underlying condition that I am aware of (apart from psychopathy). There is every chance he might recover.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 08, 2020, 04:04:18 PM
I would be concerned. Trump is in his 70's and is overweight, but has no other underlying condition that I am aware of (apart from psychopathy). There is every chance he might recover.

You could be right. :-\
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on July 08, 2020, 06:17:50 PM
Trump is extremely careful when it comes to him.  He requires everyone around him to wear a mask, and he's OCD about germs anyway.  He's now making every effort to force the States to open schools again next month, but you can bet his own son won't be in a classroom.  (I had just gotten a broadcast message from the local high school from the superintendent who finally made the decision that the Class of 2020 will not be having an in-person graduation ceremony.  She sited the rising COVID19 cases locally.  And, then, the local paper announces that our governor has just required that all children return to schools next month.  (Our governor is one of Trump's lackeys.)

Our local paper here is reporting that many of our area hospitals are at capacity now. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 08, 2020, 06:22:00 PM

Another good performance from Sunak.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53268594
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: flower girl on July 08, 2020, 08:53:20 PM
Tragic

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/07/07/florida-carsyn-davis-coronavirus/#click=https://t.co/3sPhF6REDJ

I had to come back to this.  The most disturbing aspect of this is the mother's account of her daughter's death.  Maybe one could chalk it up to religious denial, but for God's sake.  She was focusing on the daughter not being afraid, as she fought for each breath. It's almost sounds criminal as if the mother was smiling down on her daughter, so proud of her, as she struggled and died. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 08, 2020, 09:34:36 PM
I had to come back to this.  The most disturbing aspect of this is the mother's account of her daughter's death.  Maybe one could chalk it up to religious denial, but for God's sake.  She was focusing on the daughter not being afraid, as she fought for each breath. It's almost sounds criminal as if the mother was smiling down on her daughter, so proud of her, as she struggled and died.
it's just so shocking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 08, 2020, 09:43:34 PM
Another good performance from Sunak.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53268594

It was. But to be fair, the bar really isn't set that high.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 09, 2020, 10:24:03 AM
Another good performance from Sunak.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53268594

I agree. He's basically just thrown £5,000 at me. In my case, he didn't really need to since I was going to buy the house anyway. I should probably donate it to charity but I might need it when the government inevitably has to start clawing it all back.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 10, 2020, 09:24:41 PM
I agree. He's basically just thrown £5,000 at me. In my case, he didn't really need to since I was going to buy the house anyway. I should probably donate it to charity but I might need it when the government inevitably has to start clawing it all back.
it's not about the measures, though there is at least an attempt to do something, but he doesn't over promise, doesn't waffle much. His follow up interviews highlighting that it isn't going to save all all jobs highlights the clarity.


It is still a minimal investment in comparison to the 'New Deal' approach  promised by Johnson.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 10, 2020, 09:25:14 PM
Hmmm...


https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2020/07/10/disney-world-set-reopen-despite-severe-outbreak-unfolding-florida/#click=https://t.co/i4Euk8j3ES
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 12, 2020, 08:24:51 AM
Even Trump has taken to wearing a mask, things must be bad in the US! :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 12, 2020, 09:02:19 AM
Even Trump has taken to wearing a mask, things must be bad in the US! :o

Can't be...

Hmmm...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2020/07/10/disney-world-set-reopen-despite-severe-outbreak-unfolding-florida/#click=https://t.co/i4Euk8j3ES
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 13, 2020, 01:35:54 PM
I hope face masks are made mandatory in Wales and England in shops and other enclosed public spaces as they are in Scotland. I was shopping in Tesco this morning, which has eased its one way policy and doesn't appear to be checking how many people are entering the store at any one time. I was grateful I was wearing my mask and surgical gloves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 13, 2020, 03:37:51 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-53389977

A pub landlord in Cornwall has placed an electric fence around the bar to ensure his customers socially distance.

WOW! ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on July 13, 2020, 06:37:09 PM
Surprised at the hesitancy over facemasks in shops in England & Wales. Although many here have been doing this voluntarily anyway, it became a requirement her in Scotland last week, and having been in several shops since then my impression is that everyone here is complying with little fuss.

My grandson, who is 6 (but nearly 7, as he constantly reminds me), and I have a matching pair of 'shark-mouth/Jaws' masks for when we go shopping together - and I've taken to wearing it even when he isn't with me. I think the beard sticking out the sides adds a certain something!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 13, 2020, 06:41:54 PM
I've seen around 15% not wearing. There are, of course, some exemptions but not convinced all the people I saw were on the list. I do find the message coming out from the 'English' govt confusing. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on July 13, 2020, 06:44:17 PM
I've seen around 15% not wearing. There are, of course, some exemptions but not convinced all the people I saw were on the list. I do find the message coming out from the 'English' govt confusing.
The English govt? You mean the ''headmasters Conference'' govt.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 14, 2020, 08:21:05 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53397617

Face coverings will be compulsory in shops in England as from July 24th, I hope Wales is sensible and follows suit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 14, 2020, 08:25:14 AM
Quote
I do find the message coming out from the 'English' govt confusing.

And people accuse the government of not being consistent  ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 14, 2020, 08:35:40 AM
And people accuse the government of not being consistent  ::)
I phrased it that way and put in in inverted commas as writing the UK govt making statements that only apply in England is a bit cumbersome.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 14, 2020, 08:43:37 AM
I got that. I simply meant the govt (Johnson's) are consistent in their inconsistency.

We may be talking at cross purposes or I simply misunderstood. Lack of sleep. Woken up by rain and then slaughter of pigeon by fox and couldn't get back to sleep.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 14, 2020, 08:59:11 AM
I got that. I simply meant the govt (Johnson's) are consistent in their inconsistency.

We may be talking at cross purposes or I simply misunderstood. Lack of sleep. Woken up by rain and then slaughter of pigeon by fox and couldn't get back to sleep.
I was just conscious that the phrase isn't a normal one to use so was worried that I hadn't been clear.I could happily have stayed in bed this morning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on July 14, 2020, 09:04:16 AM
If true then good grief!

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/12/us/30-year-old-covid-party-death.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 14, 2020, 09:13:23 AM
If true then good grief!

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/12/us/30-year-old-covid-party-death.html

CRAZY! :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on July 16, 2020, 09:35:29 PM
Scientist takes his opportunity.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/16/tired-of-being-boris-johnsons-patsy-patrick-vallance-fights-back
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 16, 2020, 11:11:05 PM
Lovely socially distanced evening with partner and 2 friends at the Glasgow branch of the Scottish Malt Whisky Society. Great service, great whisky (including maybe the finest dram I have ever tasted), and great company.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 17, 2020, 09:55:56 AM
I've seen around 15% not wearing. There are, of course, some exemptions but not convinced all the people I saw were on the list. I do find the message coming out from the 'English' govt confusing.

Not confusing, but the timing is inexplicable. If face masks are effective, they should have been mandated as soon as the supply for health workers was secure. If not, why are we doing this at all?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 17, 2020, 10:01:05 AM
I've seen around 15% not wearing. There are, of course, some exemptions but not convinced all the people I saw were on the list. I do find the message coming out from the 'English' govt confusing.

Oh, and if you want confusing. Try this:

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-phase-3-staying-safe-and-protecting-others/pages/seeing-friends-and-family/

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on July 17, 2020, 10:54:13 AM
"Britain may have already achieved a sufficient level of herd immunity to prevent a second wave of Covid-19, an Oxford University study has suggested" - Today's Telegraph.
Immunity developed to seasonal coronaviruses such as the common cold may also prevent infection with Covid-19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on July 17, 2020, 11:06:05 AM
Was speaking to a guy on the allotments who thinks that higher levels of sunlight in the summer, and consequent boost in vitamin D manufacture in the skin, could have helped reduce the number of infections, since low levels of vit D have been associated with more frequent respiratory infections.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on July 17, 2020, 11:07:45 AM
"Britain may have already achieved a sufficient level of herd immunity to prevent a second wave of Covid-19, an Oxford University study has suggested" - Today's Telegraph.
Immunity developed to seasonal coronaviruses such as the common cold may also prevent infection with Covid-19.
That's fucking bollocks. Just because Tories own land and herds and are sneaky, thick and rich doesn't mean I shouldn't get on my high horse when they refer to British people as a herd.

People should be taken to the courts of human rights for suggesting the unleashing of a lethal pathogen on a population. Herd fucking immunity indeed.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 17, 2020, 11:11:22 AM
"Britain may have already achieved a sufficient level of herd immunity to prevent a second wave of Covid-19, an Oxford University study has suggested" - Today's Telegraph.
I'll be taking that with a pinch of salt for now.

Quote
Immunity developed to seasonal coronaviruses such as the common cold may also prevent infection with Covid-19.
That's good news because we are all immune to the common cold...

... oh wait. One of the distinctive points about the common cold is that we are not immune to it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 17, 2020, 11:13:22 AM
That's fucking bollocks. Just because Tories own land and herds and are sneaky, thick and rich doesn't mean I shouldn't get on my high horse when they refer to British people as a herd.

People should be taken to the courts of human rights for suggesting the unleashing of a lethal pathogen on a population. Herd fucking immunity indeed.

"Herd immunity" is the common accepted term for when enough people have immunity to a disease that it can't spread. It wasn't invented for coronavirus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 17, 2020, 11:15:32 AM
"Britain may have already achieved a sufficient level of herd immunity to prevent a second wave of Covid-19, an Oxford University study has suggested" - Today's Telegraph.
Immunity developed to seasonal coronaviruses such as the common cold may also prevent infection with Covid-19.

Since when have people been immune to the common cold? ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on July 17, 2020, 11:16:04 AM
Was speaking to a guy on the allotments who thinks that higher levels of sunlight in the summer, and consequent boost in vitamin D manufacture in the skin, could have helped reduce the number of infections, since low levels of vit D have been associated with more frequent respiratory infections.
   




Tell that to the folk in Texas, Arizona, Yemen, India, Brazil...........
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 17, 2020, 11:18:43 AM
Was speaking to a guy on the allotments who thinks that higher levels of sunlight in the summer, and consequent boost in vitamin D manufacture in the skin, could have helped reduce the number of infections, since low levels of vit D have been associated with more frequent respiratory infections.
Check out which states in the USA are currently the hardest hit. Florida, Arizona, Texas all have out of control growth in cases.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on July 17, 2020, 11:23:38 AM
"Herd immunity" is the common accepted term for when enough people have immunity to a disease that it can't spread. It wasn't invented for coronavirus.
Sorry to be so PC.
In natural conditions i.e. without the use of vaccines I understand that lots of the herd die of whatever it is in the establishment of herd immunity. My appeal that those who advocated it without a vaccine stand trial stands
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 17, 2020, 11:51:35 AM
I understand that lots of the herd die of whatever it is in the establishment of herd immunity.

That depends on the mortality rate of the disease. The mortality rate of COVID19 is said to be about 1% of those who catch it. The herd immunity level is supposed to be around 60% (compare measles, which is much more infectious at around 95%).

You can do the maths for the UK of approximately 68 million people.

To achieve herd immunity, you would need 68 million x 60% = 40 million (approx) to have had the disease. If 1% of them die, that's 400,000 deaths in the UK to achieve herd immunity. That's just the people who would have died of COVID19. There would be quite a lot of collateral damage including, for example, people who needed intensive care for other reasons but who couldn't get into hospital.

Then you have to consider what 400,000 extra deaths over a few months would look like. It would be the right time to buy shares in crematoria and cold storage facilities.

And the punch line is, of course, we don't know if herd immunity is even possible with this disease. There's no herd immunity for the common cold or influenza.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on July 17, 2020, 05:48:31 PM
   




Tell that to the folk in Texas, Arizona, Yemen, India, Brazil...........
All of which currently have 12-14 hours daylight, compared to our 17-18.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on July 17, 2020, 05:57:32 PM
I'll be taking that with a pinch of salt for now.
That's good news because we are all immune to the common cold...

... oh wait. One of the distinctive points about the common cold is that we are not immune to it.
We pick up many cold viruses each year. Depending on various factors, our immune systems either kill them before succumbing to an infection, or we succumb and get the symptoms before eventually killing it off. So we are frequently developing immunity to coronaviruses, such as the common cold, even if we aren't fully conscious of them. That immunity may be effective against Covid-19, the article said (I didn't read it all).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 17, 2020, 06:17:41 PM
We pick up many cold viruses each year. Depending on various factors, our immune systems either kill them before succumbing to an infection, or we succumb and get the symptoms before eventually killing it off. So we are frequently developing immunity to coronaviruses, such as the common cold, even if we aren't fully conscious of them. That immunity may be effective against Covid-19, the article said (I didn't read it all).

Your post is complete nonsense! ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sebastian Toe on July 17, 2020, 07:04:29 PM
All of which currently have 12-14 hours daylight, compared to our 17-18.
Does everybody get up at daybreak and go to bed at dusk?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 17, 2020, 07:27:45 PM
Not confusing, but the timing is inexplicable. If face masks are effective, they should have been mandated as soon as the supply for health workers was secure. If not, why are we doing this at all?
it's not confusing now in terms of shops but on the 13th when I wrote this it was, with it being up to common sense, or not.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 17, 2020, 07:30:31 PM
Oh, and if you want confusing. Try this:

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-phase-3-staying-safe-and-protecting-others/pages/seeing-friends-and-family/
I think you are mixing up detailed for complex situations to the confusion about what the 'English' govt was saying about masks in shops on the 13th of July, and indulging in whataboutery.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 19, 2020, 08:01:09 PM
Friend's son is currently working as in a Covid track and trace centre that's just been identified as a cluster of infection for Covid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 20, 2020, 09:29:08 AM
We pick up many cold viruses each year. Depending on various factors, our immune systems either kill them before succumbing to an infection, or we succumb and get the symptoms before eventually killing it off. So we are frequently developing immunity to coronaviruses, such as the common cold, even if we aren't fully conscious of them. That immunity may be effective against Covid-19, the article said (I didn't read it all).

The reason why we never gain immunity to the common cold is that it is caused by many viruses - mostly rhinoviruses but some coronaviruses - and they mutate quickly so that our antibodies are no longer effective. There's no reason why the COVID19 virus can't mutate in the same way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 20, 2020, 09:31:19 AM
it's not confusing now in terms of shops but on the 13th when I wrote this it was, with it being up to common sense, or not.

Yes, because it's always confusing to use your common sense. Or perhaps the confusing thing is why the government was appealing to common sense when it is abundantly clear that most people don't have any.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 20, 2020, 09:36:47 AM
I think you are mixing up detailed for complex situations
It's usually details for complex situations that are confusing. I would argue, in this case, that the regulations are unnecessarily complex and difficult enough to remember and follow that many people just won't. They are confusing.

Quote
to the confusion about what the 'English' govt was saying about masks in shops on the 13th of July, and indulging in whataboutery.
No. You seemed confused about what the term "confuse" actually means. I was simply providing an example that was actually confusing.

Sorry id that was a bit of a confusing explanation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: torridon on July 20, 2020, 09:40:46 AM
The reason why we never gain immunity to the common cold is that it is caused by many viruses - mostly rhinoviruses but some coronaviruses - and they mutate quickly so that our antibodies are no longer effective. There's no reason why the COVID19 virus can't mutate in the same way.

although from what I read Sars-Cov-2 has exhibited a much slower mutation rate than most similar classes of virus.  That's lucky for us, although I guess it is really simply a manifestation of the reality that there is little selection pressure on it to evolve currently.  It must be very happy, finding a massive untapped food source (us) with little or no defence or resistance to it.  It's happy to profit from the temporary power asymmetry while it has the edge on us, but when we start producing vaccines and developing natural immunity it will start evolving much faster thanks to our push back.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 20, 2020, 09:42:58 AM
This sounds promising:

Quote
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53467022
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on July 20, 2020, 10:49:28 AM
I heard on the radio, and my neighbour next door saw it on TV, our local MP, Sir desmond Swayne, getting very hot under the collar about mask wearing. PersonallyI shall look up his blog in a minute to see what he has to say about it there.
, I am quite happy to wear a mask in shops and will do so as from Wednesday when I go to Tesco. Although Tesco shopping is not the most interesting thing to do, I shall be pleased to be able to do it for the first time since March.

ETA I have read blog. He has received far more pro-mask e-mails thenantis and his own approach isi to wear one, but says he was speaking up - and the only dissenter! - for those who objected to being compelled to wear a mask. Okay, so that seems reasonable and of the 360 plus e-mails he has received since speaking up, the large majority were in favour of masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on July 20, 2020, 12:01:03 PM
although from what I read Sars-Cov-2 has exhibited a much slower mutation rate than most similar classes of virus.  That's lucky for us, although I guess it is really simply a manifestation of the reality that there is little selection pressure on it to evolve currently.  It must be very happy, finding a massive untapped food source (us) with little or no defence or resistance to it.  It's happy to profit from the temporary power asymmetry while it has the edge on us, but when we start producing vaccines and developing natural immunity it will start evolving much faster thanks to our push back.

er... shameless anthropomorphizing ! ... I'm shocked :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on July 20, 2020, 12:03:55 PM
This sounds promising:
...

Sort of ... but I expect the cost of providing it in sufficient quantities would make it impractical.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 20, 2020, 12:08:48 PM
It must be very happy, finding a massive untapped food source (us) with little or no defence or resistance to it.
That's absolutely not true. We have a vast array of defences against it and they are pretty effective when properly applied. That's why levels of infection are getting quite low in the UK, are almost zero in other parts of Europe and effectively zero in places like New Zealand.

Quote
It's happy to profit from the temporary power asymmetry while it has the edge on us, but when we start producing vaccines and developing natural immunity it will start evolving much faster thanks to our push back.
It doesn't have the edge on us, in most parts of the world where it is being taken seriously, we are winning.

An interesting point about evolution: the fact that COVID19 kills or seriously debilitates people is not an evolutionary advantage. A strain of the virus that evolved to be just as infectious as it is now but that did no serious harm to humans would be far more successful because we wouldn't spend so much time and effort trying to stamp it out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 20, 2020, 12:13:29 PM
Sort of ... but I expect the cost of providing it in sufficient quantities would make it impractical.

Do you have any idea of what the cost of keeping somebody on a ventilator for several weeks is?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on July 20, 2020, 12:19:32 PM
There seems to be a viewpoint developing among some of us on this forum that viruses behave purposely.

Evolution is an entirely passive process - mutations occur randomly, they are not induced. The majority of mutations probably lead nowhere. Mutations are fortuitous not opportunistic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on July 20, 2020, 12:38:30 PM
Do you have any idea of what the cost of keeping somebody on a ventilator for several weeks is?

No.

The interferon could be used to keep patients from progressing on to ventilators, but I'm guessing we won't have the ability to produce enough, worldwide, to be able to treat everyone that it could benefit: we would still need social distancing and masks etc - that are needed to prevent people getting ill and reduce the numbers that might be ill enough to need  it or ventilators. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 20, 2020, 01:50:33 PM
There seems to be a viewpoint developing among some of us on this forum that viruses behave purposely.
I don't think any of the posters here except maybe a few of the creationists ascribe any purpose to evolution or to the virus. It's just that it's quite hard to talk about it without using language that appears to ascribe purpose as a shorthand. For example

Quote
A strain of the virus that evolved to be just as infectious as it is now but that did no serious harm to humans would be far more successful because we wouldn't spend so much time and effort trying to stamp it out.

seems to imply that the virus would be purposefully changing to be less lethal to humans. But it just means a random mutation that makes the virus less lethal so that the mutation would spread throughout the population because it is less likely to be on the receiving end of human countermeasures and therefore more likely to replicate.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 20, 2020, 01:56:08 PM
I'm guessing
Agreed, you are.

Although, it's probably quite a good guess because it is unlikely that drugs companies are producing more Interferon beta than we have needed in the past and stock piling it in the hope that a disease will come along that that needs it.

If it is really as effective as the study says (NB it is a small study and it hasn't been peer reviewed yet), we will ramp up production, just like, when we found we needed more ventilators and PPE than normal, we ramped up production.

Quote
we would still need social distancing and masks etc - that are needed to prevent people getting ill and reduce the numbers that might be ill enough to need  it or ventilators.
Agreed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on July 20, 2020, 02:06:15 PM
The reason why we never gain immunity to the common cold is that it is caused by many viruses - mostly rhinoviruses but some coronaviruses - and they mutate quickly so that our antibodies are no longer effective. There's no reason why the COVID19 virus can't mutate in the same way.
I was thinking of non-specific defense mechanisms as opposed to acquired immunity (so my phrase 'our immune systems' was misleading). So that would include, for example, saliva, which washes microbes away from the respiratory tract, and the epiglottis, which covers the latter during swallowing; and cilia in the bronchial tree, which waft mucus containing microbes back up. Here's (https://reason.com/2020/07/01/covid-19-herd-immunity-is-much-closer-than-antibody-tests-suggest-say-2-new-studies/) an article detailing the research that suggests T cells may be giving acquired immunity because they have already been exposed to the coronavirus-type of common cold.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: torridon on July 20, 2020, 02:09:08 PM
I don't think any of the posters here except maybe a few of the creationists ascribe any purpose to evolution or to the virus. It's just that it's quite hard to talk about it without using language that appears to ascribe purpose as a shorthand..

Sometimes using teleological metaphor is an efficient way to get an idea across; of course that assumes the reader understands a metaphor is being used.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on July 20, 2020, 02:10:32 PM
Good to see the word 'evolve' being used here in the correct way  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on July 20, 2020, 02:24:52 PM
...
If it is really as effective as the study says (NB it is a small study and it hasn't been peer reviewed yet), we will ramp up production, just like, when we found we needed more ventilators and PPE than normal, we ramped up production.
...

Well, currently it is in demand for treating MS and other auto-immune conditions - but still expensive and hard to obtain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 21, 2020, 02:26:31 PM
Well, currently it is in demand for treating MS and other auto-immune conditions - but still expensive and hard to obtain.
Yes, because it is not in demand for treating victims of a global pandemic. If it is found to be of benefit, manufacturers will gear up production until there is enough to go round. It may still be expensive, but its use promises to save a lot of money.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dicky Underpants on July 21, 2020, 04:00:50 PM
Sometimes using teleological metaphor is an efficient way to get an idea across; of course that assumes the reader understands a metaphor is being used.

Yes indeed. Dawkins' first book is dependent on this idea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 22, 2020, 01:12:30 PM
The UK's world class response to Covid - interesting  article

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2020-07-22/british-response-to-covid-19-has-been-world-class?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 22, 2020, 06:12:07 PM


Meanwhile Jeff Bezos is having a great virus

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/technology/2020/jul/21/jeff-bezos-the-worlds-richest-man-added-10bn-to-his-fortune-in-just-one-day?fbclid=IwAR2sOgJ43PNMRbGcWpNZz-CY1h7jCnJFhrsojeaEt0JvXy-VDPWDmlL4WaQ
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on July 24, 2020, 07:07:34 AM
Having now seen for myself (in Tesco on Wednesday) how the check-out shields are positioned, I wondered whether companies have had to quickly start making them or whether they were a standard item. A selection of sites came up and I have taken a quick look at a few. It would appear that a side effect of shops having to have such shielding has been an upturn in sales for the companies involved. And well done them!

Next time I go into a shop with one, I shall see if I can 'see' or ask how they are fixed. On wooden counters that would be easy, I suppose, but supermarket check-outs are metal, aren't they.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 24, 2020, 01:11:30 PM
6 of 7 postive tests at St Mirren, false positives. Doesn't exactly make the case for being able to base decisions on numbers.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/53521306
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 24, 2020, 01:43:32 PM
Randy Rainbow with a plea to Anthony Fauci


https://youtu.be/lUiDLcp_hIw
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 25, 2020, 01:19:05 PM
From the BBCs rolling Covid daily report. Shocking.


'US infectious diseases chief Dr Anthony Fauci says he and his family have received "serious threats" because of his work trying to contain the coronavirus outbreak.

He told CNN's David Axelrod that the amount of hate mail and threats were "not good". He said there were "many people who get really angry thinking I'm interfering with their life because I'm pushing a public health agenda".'

"It's tough. Serious threats against me, against my wife, against my daughters. I mean, really? Is this the United States of America?" he said.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on July 25, 2020, 03:16:25 PM
Haven't been out that much since this blasted virus started, I went out today and I did notice that so many don't seem to have even the faintest idea of how to judge two meters?

I would have thought picturing the height of the standard household internal door which is two meters would be one of the easiest ways to assist making this judgement.

We have a pathway by the river here that is obviously to me two meters wide, within an inch (25mm-50mm) or two, so it's impossible to pass each other by and keep to the two meters without stepping off of the path, it's not rocket science.

Does anyone else notice this, what appears to be large numbers of people that have no idea when it comes to even the most simple of distance judgements?

ippy. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 25, 2020, 04:04:11 PM
Yes. It has been the same in my experience. The governments messaging hasn't helped though. 1 metre, here 2 metres there. Barnard Castle 200 miles. They have a problem with the concept of distance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 25, 2020, 06:47:51 PM
I've noted on the tennis thread that I think a number of players won't play in the US Open or the French Open dependent on where they are based
 Here's an NFL player opting out of the entire season - okay not a typical NFL player.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/american-football/53538715
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on July 25, 2020, 07:15:17 PM
Scotland and the UK (though they've yet to formally confirm) re-introduce 14 days quarantine on arrivals from Spain.

From The Guardian's live blog.

Quote
Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has announced that the Scottish government has also decided to reimpose quarantine on arrivals from Spain.......

The British government’s decision to remove Spain from list of safe countries to travel to means those coming back from Spain will have to self-isolate for two weeks upon their return to England.

A formal announcement is expected to be made by the Department for Transport on Saturday, PA reports.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 25, 2020, 07:49:55 PM
Scotland and the UK (though they've yet to formally confirm) re-introduce 14 days quarantine on arrivals from Spain.

From The Guardian's live blog.
The Scottish govt's decision to lift this on Monday was obviously wrong at the time. In theory I have a holiday booked in Barcelona in September. I suspect this won't happen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 25, 2020, 07:53:00 PM
On the subject of understanding what 2 metres is, since I am 1.96 metres tall, it's pretty easy for me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 27, 2020, 11:42:54 AM
The Scottish govt's decision to lift this on Monday was obviously wrong at the time. In theory I have a holiday booked in Barcelona in September. I suspect this won't happen.
My parents are in France at the moment and, apparently, we are thinking about reimposing quarantine for France too. They wouldn't be too bothered about self isolating for fourteen days after coming back, but they couldn't stay there without insurance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 27, 2020, 12:25:51 PM
My parents are in France at the moment and, apparently, we are thinking about reimposing quarantine for France too. They wouldn't be too bothered about self isolating for fourteen days after coming back, but they couldn't stay there without insurance.

I hope it works out ok for them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 27, 2020, 01:56:59 PM
I hope it works out ok for them.

They'll be fine. The worst case scenario is that they have to cut their holiday short.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on July 27, 2020, 03:00:12 PM
I am in France at the moment. In fact I intend to stay here for the next six weeks or so.

I an in a small village in an area which is not densely populated and which has had a very low level of COVID-19. It is not a tourist mecca and I doubt that - locally - there will be any problems. I am having glorious weather (daily in excess of 30 degrees) and yesterday had my first restaurant meal for over four months.

If, when I return to England, I am forced to self-isoate for two weeks then I shall set about doing that. I, at least, am having the kind of experience of which so many people will be denied this year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 27, 2020, 08:04:52 PM

Baffled as to why you would retweet something without at least reading the tweet

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53559934
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 28, 2020, 09:19:44 AM

Interesting graphic about the countries with the most Covid cases over time in this. At the start the Diamond Princess gets to second place but then it all changes. Oddly at 2 points the UK cases go down


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51235105
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 28, 2020, 09:44:23 AM
I am in France at the moment. In fact I intend to stay here for the next six weeks or so.

I an in a small village in an area which is not densely populated and which has had a very low level of COVID-19. It is not a tourist mecca and I doubt that - locally - there will be any problems. I am having glorious weather (daily in excess of 30 degrees) and yesterday had my first restaurant meal for over four months.

If, when I return to England, I am forced to self-isoate for two weeks then I shall set about doing that. I, at least, am having the kind of experience of which so many people will be denied this year.

The problem isn't the self isolation on return so much as the lack of travel insurance while you are still out there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 28, 2020, 09:50:06 AM
Baffled as to why you would retweet something without at least reading the tweet

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53559934
Baffled as to why you would post a link to a story without at least reading it first. :)

If you do a search on the page for "tweet" and "twitter" you might then have an understanding of why Lewis shared a video on Instagram without reading it properly.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 28, 2020, 09:59:00 AM
Baffled as to why you would post a link to a story without at least reading it first. :)

If you do a search on the page for "tweet" and "twitter" you might then have an understanding of why Lewis shared a video on Instagram without reading it properly.
Touché
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 28, 2020, 10:04:01 AM
Oddly at 2 points the UK cases go down

Two possibilities:

1. We changed the way we count cases e.g. maybe we were double counting some people.

2. A mistake in the data behind the animation.

Probably the latter IMO.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 28, 2020, 10:08:57 AM
Two possibilities:

1. We changed the way we count cases e.g. maybe we were double counting some people.

2. A mistake in the data behind the animation.

Probably the latter IMO.
I agree but if it was 1 then I would be very interested in the details.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 28, 2020, 10:52:57 AM
I agree but if it was 1 then I would be very interested in the details.

So would I.

There was a news item the other day which reported that England counts its coronavirus deaths differently to the other home countries. The official statistic is the number of people who have died in care homes and hospitals having previously tested positive for coronavirus. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland were applying a month limit to how long previously the test could have happened. i.e. if somebody tested positive in March and died in May, in England it was a COVID19 death, elsewhere it was not.

If England had decided to retroactively bring its counting method in line with Scotland etc, you would see an apparent reduction of deaths in England. I'm not saying it is that specific thing, but some other similar counting anomaly might be the cause.



I've done a bit more digging. The graphics source is the European CDC which is the same source used by ourworldindata.com. Check out this graph of UK daily and cumulative cases:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-and-daily-cases-covid-19?country=~GBR

On 3rd July, there was a massive step down and approximately -30,000 new cases. Obviously you can't have a negative number of new cases, so somebody did an adjustment on that day. The same step down appears in data direct from the government.

https://coronavstats.co.uk

So I think option 1 is the most likely, after all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 28, 2020, 11:00:37 AM
So would I.

There was a news item the other day which reported that England counts its coronavirus deaths differently to the other home countries. The official statistic is the number of people who have died in care homes and hospitals having previously tested positive for coronavirus. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland were applying a month limit to how long previously the test could have happened. i.e. if somebody tested positive in March and died in May, in England it was a COVID19 death, elsewhere it was not.

If England had decided to retroactively bring its counting method in line with Scotland etc, you would see an apparent reduction of deaths in England. I'm not saying it is that specific thing, but some other similar counting anomaly might be the cause.



I've done a bit more digging. The graphics source is the European CDC which is the same source used by ourworldindata.com. Check out this graph of UK daily and cumulative cases:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-and-daily-cases-covid-19?country=~GBR

On 3rd July, there was a massive step down and approximately -30,000 new cases. Obviously you can't have a negative number of new cases, so somebody did an adjustment on that day. The same step down appears in data direct from the government.

https://coronavstats.co.uk

So I think option 1 is the most likely, after all.
Thanks for this and the wiki on Covid confirms


'On 2 July, the government revised the total number of cases down by 30,302 because some people were counted twice in the earlier figures. The actual increase in the number of cases for 2 July was 576 or 0.18%.[160]'


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom#cite_note-173
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 28, 2020, 11:07:04 AM
From the BBC's  rolling Covid news


'France's transport minister has said the government will review plans to build a fourth terminal at Paris's main airport, Charles de Gaulle-Roissy.

Jean-Baptiste Djebbari said the fall in air traffic brought about by coronavirus meant extra capacity might no longer be needed.

The fourth terminal was meant to cope with an extra 40m passengers by 2030.

But the pandemic has caused a steep drop in international travel and many airlines are struggling to survive. On Tuesday French airport operator ADP said passenger traffic could take as long as seven years to recover fully.'


Will there be a similar impact on new runway at Heathrow?


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 28, 2020, 11:13:28 AM
From the BBC's  rolling Covid news


'France's transport minister has said the government will review plans to build a fourth terminal at Paris's main airport, Charles de Gaulle-Roissy.

Jean-Baptiste Djebbari said the fall in air traffic brought about by coronavirus meant extra capacity might no longer be needed.

The fourth terminal was meant to cope with an extra 40m passengers by 2030.

But the pandemic has caused a steep drop in international travel and many airlines are struggling to survive. On Tuesday French airport operator ADP said passenger traffic could take as long as seven years to recover fully.'


Will there be a similar impact on new runway at Heathrow?

I wouldn't be at all surprised, unless the government chooses to go ahead with it as part of its stimulus package.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 28, 2020, 11:24:42 AM
I wouldn't be at all surprised, unless the government chooses to go ahead with it as part of its stimulus package.
Yep, it's an interesting challenge 'if you build it, they may not come'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 28, 2020, 11:33:33 AM
Lots of rejigging of property strategies currently.


https://www.fastcompany.com/90532312/the-office-as-you-know-it-is-gone?partner=feedburner&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=feedburner fastcompany&utm_content=feedburner
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on July 28, 2020, 11:34:56 AM
From the BBC's  rolling Covid news


'France's transport minister has said the government will review plans to build a fourth terminal at Paris's main airport, Charles de Gaulle-Roissy.

Jean-Baptiste Djebbari said the fall in air traffic brought about by coronavirus meant extra capacity might no longer be needed.

The fourth terminal was meant to cope with an extra 40m passengers by 2030.

But the pandemic has caused a steep drop in international travel and many airlines are struggling to survive. On Tuesday French airport operator ADP said passenger traffic could take as long as seven years to recover fully.'


Will there be a similar impact on new runway at Heathrow?
Let's hope so: it and HS2 are alike disastrous ideas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 28, 2020, 11:44:30 AM
Let's hope so: it and HS2 are alike disastrous ideas.
As per Jeremyp's comment though the question will be whether the govt sees it as part of their stimulus package. This sort of long term planning is not really what govts are good at. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 28, 2020, 11:54:05 AM
As per Jeremyp's comment though the question will be whether the govt sees it as part of their stimulus package. This sort of long term planning is not really what govts are good at.

Yes. I think HS2 may be more likely too because it's a big project that can be used to stimulate the economy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 28, 2020, 12:01:52 PM
Yes. I think HS2 may be more likely too because it's a big project that can be used to stimulate the economy.
And it can at least be sort of sold as 'green'.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 28, 2020, 04:12:26 PM

Donald Trump Jr suspended from tweeting after Covid post


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53567681
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 28, 2020, 04:43:04 PM
Tempted by this mask

https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B07NY2NV77?tag=duc08-21&linkCode=osi&th=1&psc=1
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on July 28, 2020, 09:38:39 PM
Hor-ribble!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on July 28, 2020, 10:36:01 PM
And it can at least be sort of sold as 'green'.
It's not nearly as green as not building it at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 28, 2020, 11:40:40 PM
It's not nearly as green as not building it at all.
You did see the ' ' marks?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 29, 2020, 08:50:21 AM
And just another ordinary day at the Trump/Covid intersection out on Highway Weird.

Having sex with Aliens and Demons in your dreams causes endometriosis, no less:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/28/trump-covid-19-briefing-hydroxychloroquine-video?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 29, 2020, 08:52:32 AM
Worrying news from Hong Kong


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-53575875
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 29, 2020, 08:57:42 AM
Worrying news from Hong Kong


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-53575875

Yes, very worrying, especially as it confirms a trend seen elsewhere - Australia, Spain, Germany, France, Israel - increasing cases as societies try to move towards something approaching normal. For the time being, at least, we have got to find a new normal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 29, 2020, 09:09:15 AM
Yes, very worrying, especially as it confirms a trend seen elsewhere - Australia, Spain, Germany, France, Israel - increasing cases as societies try to move towards something approaching normal. For the time being, at least, we have got to find a new normal.

It is very worrying, many people seem to be trying to get back to pre-virus days too quickly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 29, 2020, 09:17:24 AM
It is very worrying, many people seem to be trying to get back to pre-virus days too quickly.
I think it's not an easy call - even with us having moved out of lock down, it's not going to be enough for many businesses. It's easy to say that things are happening too fast but for many in some terms it's not fast enough. It's a difficult balance, and we are only seeing the very start of the tsunami of job losses that are going to happen. Even had we a magic wand to make Covid disappear now, the effects will be felt for years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 29, 2020, 09:35:28 AM
This is a fairly depressing read about 'zombie companies' but I think in my Eeyorish way that the situation is worse since this doesn't take into account the large number of redundancies that will come from larger businesses that are not under strain of going under but had committed to keeping people working where they could, and using the furlough scheme where appropriate. I think we will see the start of that around September.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53417948
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 29, 2020, 10:17:00 AM
Scams involving Covid


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53573408
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on July 29, 2020, 10:47:33 AM
...a new normal.
...a new normality. Grammar.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 29, 2020, 11:00:03 AM
...a new normality. Grammar.
And language changes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_normal
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 29, 2020, 11:06:31 AM
Don't know if this is a problem in the UK, but, if so, check the ingredients list of your hand sanitiser.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/07/mounting-poisonings-blindness-deaths-as-toxic-hand-sanitizers-flood-market/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on July 29, 2020, 11:41:14 AM
And language changes.

Not if I've got anything to do with it.
Seriously, you can't just say "language changes" to excuse any solecism.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 29, 2020, 11:43:11 AM
Not if I've got anything to do with it.
Seriously, you can't just say "language changes" to excuse any solecism.

Solving the world's problems by pedantry. Well done brave little soldier.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on July 29, 2020, 11:44:53 AM
Solving the world's problems by pedantry. Well done brave little soldier.
One does what one can, dear boy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 29, 2020, 11:50:44 AM
Not if I've got anything to do with it.
Seriously, you can't just say "language changes" to excuse any solecism.
And yet that language changes is true. As long as something can be understood clearly, I see no problems. It's a tool, not a straitjacket.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on July 29, 2020, 11:52:31 AM
And yet that language changes is true. As long as something can be understood clearly, I see no problems. It's a tool, not a straitjacket.
Langage changyth notte, thou malapert knave!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 30, 2020, 01:39:37 PM
Interesting article on masks in San Francisco during the Spanish Flu epidemic

https://www.influenzaarchive.org/cities/city-sanfrancisco.html?fbclid=IwAR0FYKY4goLxsJWEBhjPmdG_KMclRWdHNT3P6_wbq9SMLfE4L5wvw0u9PmQ#
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 30, 2020, 02:04:57 PM


Some interesting and confusing stats here - it would appear that the 15 worst city for excess deaths in the whole of Europe has an effective increase of 0%. In addition the lack of Italy's figures make it a problem to say anything clear.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53592881
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 30, 2020, 02:47:30 PM
The 'schools or pubs' debate


https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/can-boris-avoid-a-winter-lockdown-/amp?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 30, 2020, 03:25:26 PM

Some interesting and confusing stats here - it would appear that the 15 worst city for excess deaths in the whole of Europe has an effective increase of 0%. In addition the lack of Italy's figures make it a problem to say anything clear.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53592881

One thing you need to remember is that, in the long term, excess deaths will even out to 0. The UK is currently reporting fewer deaths than normal because many people who were "meant" to die in June or July actually died in April  or May. Given that COVID19 has about the same risk of killing you, if you catch it, as a normal year, you would expect excess deaths over the course of about a year to be zero (excluding indirect excess deaths).

The above probably explains why we have more excess deaths than Spain but their peak excess death rate was 2.5 times normal and ours was "only" 2.2 times normal.

A better measure would be "years of expected life lost" and I know the ONS is looking into ways of measuring that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dicky Underpants on July 30, 2020, 05:26:32 PM
Langage changyth notte, thou malapert knave!
I'm fairly conservative on these matters, but don't give a shit about split infinitives, for example. But I will resist the use of "I was like" to mean "I said" or "I thought" to my dying day. I may well be arrested for common assault on a bus one day, if I hear a group of teenagers using it ad nauseam
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ekim on July 31, 2020, 09:16:16 AM
As replies go, that was, like, cool, Dude!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 31, 2020, 11:09:01 AM
As replies go, that was, like, cool, Dude!

I thought it was like a rant.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 31, 2020, 01:22:09 PM

Good piece on the problem of communicating changes in preventative measures.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/07/why-local-lockdowns-need-more-just-better-media-strategy
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 31, 2020, 03:38:50 PM
'Hands, face, waste of space'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dicky Underpants on July 31, 2020, 04:52:32 PM
I thought it was like a rant.

Perhaps you don't use Bristol buses.
Anyway, to the Corona virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on July 31, 2020, 08:57:08 PM
I thought it was like a rant.

You mean, like, similar to a rant but not quite a rant?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 01, 2020, 12:32:48 PM
Seen elsewhere

'In Manchester, you can be sacked for refusing to go and sit with someone in an office, fined £100 for sitting with them at home, and given a money-off deal to sit with them in a busy restaurant.'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 01, 2020, 12:39:07 PM
You mean, like, similar to a rant but not quite a rant?

I was trying to be ambiguous.I was trying to construct a sentence that both exhibited the trope and was grammatically correct and meaningful.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 01, 2020, 12:43:13 PM
Seen elsewhere

'In Manchester, you can be sacked for refusing to go and sit with someone in an office, fined £100 for sitting with them at home, and given a money-off deal to sit with them in a busy restaurant.'

If I was implementing the local lockdown in Manchester, I would be rolling back all the measures, not some of them. I would be mandating working from home where possible, closing the restaurants and reimposing the social distancing rules. I don't know why it has to be so difficult.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on August 01, 2020, 12:45:37 PM
If I was implementing the local lockdown in Manchester, I would be rolling back all the measures, not some of them. I would be mandating working from home where possible, closing the restaurants and reimposing the social distancing rules. I don't know why it has to be so difficult.

^^ This.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 01, 2020, 01:51:22 PM
^^ This.
100%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on August 01, 2020, 02:08:41 PM
Like:

https://twitter.com/BrookesTimes/status/1289512758925340672?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 01, 2020, 03:46:38 PM
It occurred to me the other day that it might come to this

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53621613

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 01, 2020, 03:52:02 PM
It occurred to me the other day that it might come to this

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53621613
See 2851
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 01, 2020, 03:56:31 PM
See 2851
Why would there be a debate? If it's a choice of schools or pubs but not both, we have to give priority to schools.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on August 01, 2020, 04:05:51 PM
Schools are much more important than pubs, which are more than likely to spread the virus when people are too sloshed to socially distance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 01, 2020, 04:07:49 PM
Schools are much more important than pubs, which are more than likely to spread the virus when people are too sloshed to socially distance.


This gives a good excuse to post this


https://youtu.be/ttRIz-0HWps
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 01, 2020, 04:11:14 PM
Why would there be a debate? If it's a choice of schools or pubs but not both, we have to give priority to schools.
Because the UK govt is deeply worried that it's lost its authority and anything they say will be ignored. So first they put up a bit of kite flying through sources hoping to get people agreeing to the schools choice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on August 01, 2020, 04:39:44 PM

This gives a good excuse to post this


https://youtu.be/ttRIz-0HWps

I can't say I found it particularly amusing. Do you have children?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on August 01, 2020, 04:42:20 PM
Schools are much more important than pubs, which are more than likely to spread the virus when people are too sloshed to socially distance.
More prejudice buttressed by ignorance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on August 01, 2020, 04:45:08 PM
More prejudice buttressed by ignorance.

Meaning?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 01, 2020, 04:57:34 PM
I can't say I found it particularly amusing. Do you have children?
Dylan Moran does
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 01, 2020, 04:57:44 PM
Because the UK govt is deeply worried that it's lost its authority and anything they say will be ignored.
I seriously doubt that - at least in the sense I think you mean. If they say "pubs must close" they will close. The government has all the necessary machinery to enforce that decree.

The real issue is that this dilemma is a microcosm of the larger problem, namely: how do you balance getting the economy back without filling the hospitals with coronavirus patients. If the government gets the balance wrong, it will end up losing its authority in the next general election.

Quote
So first they put up a bit of kite flying through sources hoping to get people agreeing to the schools choice.
Much as I like a pint in the pub, getting the schools up and running must be a priority. No reasonable person would agree that pubs should have priority over schools.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 01, 2020, 05:10:44 PM
Meaning?

I've been to two pubs and a wine bar since they reopened. In no case was I ever too sloshed to maintain social distancing. Most people who go to the pub do it to socialise, not to get sloshed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on August 02, 2020, 02:24:21 PM
I've been to two pubs and a wine bar since they reopened. In no case was I ever too sloshed to maintain social distancing. Most people who go to the pub do it to socialise, not to get sloshed.

It must be hard to social distance in a pub or wine bar though, sloshed or not.

I think it is in Aberdeen a pub is the source of a spike in cases of the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on August 02, 2020, 03:10:35 PM
Well, provided there are no unexpected spikes,shutdowns or anything else, my granddaughter is bringing Reuben to Salisbury in two weeks time, so I shal, fingers crossed, be able to see him. Something to really look forward to.
He is sitting up on the floor (with pillows behind of course in case he topples back) and has two teeth. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on August 02, 2020, 03:15:59 PM
Well, provided there are no unexpected spikes,shutdowns or anything else, my granddaughter is bringing Reuben to Salisbury in two weeks time, so I shal, fingers crossed, be able to see him. Something to really look forward to.
He is sitting up on the floor (with pillows behind of course in case he topples back) and has two teeth. :)

I hope the visit will go ahead Susan.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 02, 2020, 04:45:07 PM
It must be hard to social distance in a pub or wine bar though, sloshed or not.
Not the ones I went in. In fact, in the wine bar, we were the only group in there. It probably won't exist in three months.
Quote
I think it is in Aberdeen a pub is the source of a spike in cases of the virus.
If 13 new cases is a spike.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on August 02, 2020, 05:05:59 PM
Not the ones I went in. In fact, in the wine bar, we were the only group in there. It probably won't exist in three months.If 13 new cases is a spike.

Sturgeon seems to think it is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on August 04, 2020, 09:02:26 AM
Open letter from Michael Rosen (and good to see him back) to Gavin Williamson about schools re-opening in England.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/aug/04/dear-gavin-williamson-are-you-sure-schools-will-be-safe-in-september
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 05, 2020, 05:46:40 PM

Aberdeen back in a form of lockdown.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53666665
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 06, 2020, 09:54:34 AM

'Facebook and Twitter restrict Trump accounts over 'harmful' virus claim'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-53673797
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 06, 2020, 11:05:21 AM

'Safety concerns halt use of 50 million NHS masks'


'It has emerged that the person who originally approached the government about the deal was a government trade adviser who also advises the board of Ayanda.'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53672841


Hmmmm...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 06, 2020, 03:40:31 PM

Aberdeen footballer tests positive. Can't see the match meant to be played on Saturday happening.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/53682640
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on August 06, 2020, 03:58:41 PM
'Safety concerns halt use of 50 million NHS masks'


'It has emerged that the person who originally approached the government about the deal was a government trade adviser who also advises the board of Ayanda.'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53672841


Hmmmm...

This is just another to add to the list of bad deals made by the government in questionable circumstances - avoiding competition and scrutiny .
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 06, 2020, 04:12:02 PM
This is just another to add to the list of bad deals made by the government in questionable circumstances - avoiding competition and scrutiny .

Well, if you remember, we were running out of masks. They could have done all the competition and scrutiny, but that is the main reason why it usually takes months or years for the government to issue contracts.

The government cut corners because the masks were needed in April this year, not April next year. If they hadn't done the deal, people would be criticising them for running out of masks and the company involved would probably have issued a press release saying "we've got 50 million masks, why didn't you ask us".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 07, 2020, 01:31:06 PM
Nicola Sturgeon annoyed by Aberdeen footballers.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/53694742
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on August 07, 2020, 02:11:00 PM
Sturgeon is right to be 'pretty furious' with them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 07, 2020, 02:30:13 PM
Sturgeon is right to be 'pretty furious' with them.
The points should be awarded to St Johnstone
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on August 08, 2020, 12:05:33 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-53678427

I see stricter measures are being imposed in Preston as there has been a spike in the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on August 08, 2020, 04:20:43 PM
They'll go back to being no different to how they were a couple of weeks ago. It was bound to happen. I haven't looked to see where there are spikes in other places but read about Scotland.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on August 08, 2020, 05:56:25 PM
"Don't Kill Granny" - Boris pay attention that's how to get a message across.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-53706436
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 09, 2020, 12:51:43 PM
I could have put this on the Trump or US election threads but seems better here. Interesting article


https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/covid-19-end-of-american-era-wade-davis-1038206/amp/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 09, 2020, 04:11:58 PM
I could have put this on the Trump or US election threads but seems better here. Interesting article


https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/covid-19-end-of-american-era-wade-davis-1038206/amp/
It may be confirmation bias but I thought that was a very good article.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: torridon on August 09, 2020, 05:10:48 PM
I could have put this on the Trump or US election threads but seems better here. Interesting article


https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/covid-19-end-of-american-era-wade-davis-1038206/amp/

Me, too, I tend to agree, America is on the way out, its had its day, hastened by the election of Trump, but the fact that he was elected in the first place is an indicator the country was already on a downward trajectory. 

Arguably, the pandemic may help turn things around somewhat in the short term - out of all the unforeseeable events that could have happened during a presidency, the current public health catastrophe is one that shines a light on Trump's inadequacies more than anything else.  Had it been a war, it would have played to Trump's strengths and he would have gotten a second term on a wave of jingoism.  The pandemic however shows the man floundering like an incompetent buffoon and coming just before election time, it might just be enough to shock Americans who voted him in back to their senses.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on August 09, 2020, 05:27:37 PM
But torridon, the American people did not elect Trump. They rejected him by a significant majority.

They may well reject him again, but the distortions of the Electoral College may ensure his continued misrule.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 11, 2020, 09:37:41 AM
More idiocy in Scottish football - be interested to see if there is any reaction from Celtic's opponents in the Champions League Qualifiers, KR Reykjavík


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53733180
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 11, 2020, 10:53:01 AM
More idiocy in Scottish football - be interested to see if there is any reaction from Celtic's opponents in the Champions League Qualifiers, KR Reykjavík


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53733180

It's great. Multiple sportsmen have now broken the rules but, apparently, all you need to do to make it right is apologise (with the notable exception of JeffreyJofra Archer).

I think the entire Celtic team must now self isolate for ten days and any matches they were due to play in that period should be defaulted. Also, the points for the match against Kilmarnock in which Bolingoli played should be awarded to the opposition. Something similar should apply to Aberdeen and Valteri Botas and Charles Leclerc should have been made to self isolate for ten days too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on August 11, 2020, 11:58:19 AM
It's great. Multiple sportsmen have now broken the rules but, apparently, all you need to do to make it right is apologise (with the notable exception of Jeffrey Archer).
Jeffrey Archer ???
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 11, 2020, 11:59:55 AM
Jeffrey Archer ???

Sorry, I meant Jeffrey Epstein.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on August 11, 2020, 01:50:22 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53735718

Putin has stated a vaccine produced in Russia is now ready for use. It was only been tested for a couple of months, which apparently is too short a time in which to certify if it really is going to do the business.  One of Putin's daughters has been vaccinated. I think Putin should have been the first to have the jab.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on August 11, 2020, 02:10:23 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53735718

Putin has stated a vaccine produced in Russia is now ready for use. It was only been tested for a couple of months, which apparently is too short a time in which to certify if it really is going to do the business.  One of Putin's daughters has been vaccinated. I think Putin should have been the first to have the jab.
Maybe he thought it was worth putin on the risk. (https://youtu.be/zgij9irxfKY)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on August 11, 2020, 03:28:55 PM
Maybe he thought it was worth putin on the risk. (https://youtu.be/zgij9irxfKY)

This has nothing to do with the virus! ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on August 11, 2020, 03:47:57 PM
This has nothing to do with the virus! ::)
Lighten up!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 11, 2020, 04:23:48 PM
This has nothing to do with the virus! ::)
Quite funny though
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 11, 2020, 04:24:27 PM
Wear your mask for Zoom calls

https://amp.kansascity.com/news/nation-world/national/article244861827.html?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 11, 2020, 04:41:54 PM
It's great. Multiple sportsmen have now broken the rules but, apparently, all you need to do to make it right is apologise (with the notable exception of JeffreyJofra Archer).

I think the entire Celtic team must now self isolate for ten days and any matches they were due to play in that period should be defaulted. Also, the points for the match against Kilmarnock in which Bolingoli played should be awarded to the opposition. Something similar should apply to Aberdeen and Valteri Botas and Charles Leclerc should have been made to self isolate for ten days too.
Matches now off

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/53729449

Still waiting to see any comments from Reykjavík. I suspect that all players involved will be fined heavily but agree the clubs need to forfeit points.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on August 11, 2020, 05:20:44 PM
Maybe he thought it was worth putin on the risk. (https://youtu.be/zgij9irxfKY)

Joyful!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 11, 2020, 08:00:07 PM
Wear your mask for Zoom calls

https://amp.kansascity.com/news/nation-world/national/article244861827.html?__twitter_impression=true

I can see the argument, but I think it's bollocks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 11, 2020, 08:01:57 PM
I can see the argument, but I think it's bollocks.
Agree. Bad regulations undermine good ones.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 12, 2020, 10:02:56 AM
Huge recession, and bad death figures. Not sure how anyone spins this as good performance.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53748278
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 12, 2020, 10:31:44 AM
Huge recession, and bad death figures. Not sure how anyone spins this as good performance.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53748278

Not sure how anybody ever thought there could be any other outcome.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 12, 2020, 10:50:33 AM
Not sure how anybody ever thought there could be any other outcome.
I'm talking about comparison with other countries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on August 12, 2020, 10:55:26 AM
Well, if you remember, we were running out of masks. They could have done all the competition and scrutiny, but that is the main reason why it usually takes months or years for the government to issue contracts.

The government cut corners because the masks were needed in April this year, not April next year. If they hadn't done the deal, people would be criticising them for running out of masks and the company involved would probably have issued a press release saying "we've got 50 million masks, why didn't you ask us".

hmm ... story of the scramble for PPE: https://www.ft.com/content/9680c20f-7b71-4f65-9bec-0e9554a8e0a7

(should be free to read)
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 12, 2020, 11:03:51 AM
I'm talking about comparison with other countries.

Other countries are different. Other countries have different population densities and distributions. Other countries count deaths and infections differently. Other countries have different cultures. Some other countries cook the books, both in terms of economic performance and virus impact.

Direct comparisons between countries don't really tell you anything very much.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 12, 2020, 11:13:18 AM
Other countries are different. Other countries have different population densities and distributions. Other countries count deaths and infections differently. Other countries have different cultures. Some other countries cook the books, both in terms of economic performance and virus impact.

Direct comparisons between countries don't really tell you anything very much.
That's a carte blanche to just ignore all govt performance as non measurable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on August 12, 2020, 11:48:55 AM
That's a carte blanche to just ignore all govt performance as non measurable.

Yes indeed. It was noticeable on this mornings BBC news that great play was being made of 4, I repeat 4 new cases in NZ and the subsequent tightening of lock down there and yet, 1,000 cases new cases in the UK and not a mention.

I mean it's not like the Tories haven't been in power for ages and been promising to do something about the migrants crossing the channel for the best part of a decade, but all of a sudden we have Pritti popping up and SKY news flying helicopters and reporters on boats to shout at people on rubber inflatables.

Are they trying to distract us do you think?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on August 12, 2020, 12:07:53 PM
So I'm in the CO-OP and saw a woman not wearing a mask ;

me: you should be wearing a mask !
her: why? I'm not infected !
me: No but you are ugly 😣


hope you're all well ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on August 12, 2020, 12:16:56 PM
So I'm in the CO-OP and saw a woman not wearing a mask ;

me: you should be wearing a mask !
her: why? I'm not infected !
me: No but you are ugly 😣


hope you're all well ?

Can't speak for others but I'm fine (apart from being too hot) good to see you here again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on August 12, 2020, 12:19:49 PM
Can't speak for others but I'm fine (apart from being too hot) good to see you here again.
cheers Trent, you'll be sick of me again soon enough  ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on August 12, 2020, 12:20:47 PM
cheers Trent, you'll be sick of me again soon enough  ;D

Not me. I love old jokes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on August 12, 2020, 12:22:38 PM
cheers Trent, you'll be sick of me again soon enough  ;D

Too true. :P ;D ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on August 12, 2020, 12:25:35 PM
Not me. I love old jokes.
Am I a joke to you? ;D ;D ;D

btw , I'm still a boy. ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 12, 2020, 03:22:28 PM
That's a carte blanche to just ignore all govt performance as non measurable.
No it isn't. We can still make judgements as long as we take into account all the reasons why our stats might be worse than (as an extreme example) New Zealand.

I think it's abundantly clear to most people that we should have locked down at least a week earlier than we did even without comparing the direct statistics to France or Italy. On the other hand, if we had judged our statistical performance against that of the USA at the end of May, we would have concluded they were doing much better than us. How times have changed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 12, 2020, 03:28:23 PM
Yes indeed. It was noticeable on this mornings BBC news that great play was being made of 4, I repeat 4 new cases in NZ and the subsequent tightening of lock down there and yet, 1,000 cases new cases in the UK and not a mention.
Because they've had no cases for months. The last time we had four cases it was also big news. It'll be big news again if we go down to zero cases and then have four new ones.

Quote
I mean it's not like the Tories haven't been in power for ages and been promising to do something about the migrants crossing the channel for the best part of a decade, but all of a sudden we have Pritti popping up and SKY news flying helicopters and reporters on boats to shout at people on rubber inflatables.
And what about this train crash in Scotland? Clearly it's the government trying to distract us from coronavirus.

Or maybe the news media is allowed to report on things other than coronavirus.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 12, 2020, 03:30:42 PM
No it isn't. We can still make judgements as long as we take into account all the reasons why our stats might be worse than (as an extreme example) New Zealand.

I think it's abundantly clear to most people that we should have locked down at least a week earlier than we did even without comparing the direct statistics to France or Italy. On the other hand, if we had judged our statistical performance against that of the USA at the end of May, we would have concluded they were doing much better than us. How times have changed.
So how do you think a country with a high total of deaths by all measures and higher collapse in GDP is doing?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 12, 2020, 05:00:33 PM
So how do you think a country with a high total of deaths by all measures
By all measures? What do you think is a reasonable total for a disease with no known cure, an R0 of between 3 and 4 and a 1% mortality rate?

Quote
and higher collapse in GDP is doing?

Are you really comparing the GDP collapse with the number of people who died? How does that work then?

We stopped the economy for three month and still haven't fully restarted it. A recession on the scale we are having seems to me to be about what we would expect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on August 12, 2020, 05:55:08 PM
Am I a joke to you? ;D ;D ;D

btw , I'm still a boy. ;)

No :o! I always pictured you as big, hairy and cuddly. I wondered where you'd got to, well I hope.

Coronavirus figures up and hard times are here according to Independent.

jp:- A recession on the scale we are having seems to me to be about what we would expect.

Yup.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 12, 2020, 05:57:12 PM
No :o! I always pictured you as big, hairy and cuddly. I wondered where you'd got to, well I hope.

Coronavirus figures up and hard times are here according to Independent.

jp:- A recession on the scale we are having seems to me to be about what we would expect.

Yup.
The figures are the worst in the G7 currently and the worst in Europe.  And combined with the death rate which is amongst the highest by however you measure it. You really think that is ok?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on August 12, 2020, 11:00:25 PM
No :o! I always pictured you as big, hairy and cuddly. I wondered where you'd got to, well I hope.

Coronavirus figures up and hard times are here according to Independent.

jp:- A recession on the scale we are having seems to me to be about what we would expect.

Yup.
if you fancy a cuddle let me know. No commitment, I'm a sociopath  ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 13, 2020, 08:38:08 AM
The figures are the worst in the G7 currently and the worst in Europe
Well I'm happy for the rest of Europe. Although not really.

Quote
You really think that is ok?

Of course it's not OK but it's not OK no matter how badly or not everybody else is affected.

By the way, it's not over yet in other G7 countries and Europe (or here). The USA is only just past its peak and France is seeing a seven day rolling average of 2,000 new infections per day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 13, 2020, 11:39:26 AM
Ooft!


https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/08/why-britain-failed-coronavirus-pandemic/615166/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on August 13, 2020, 03:59:10 PM
Interesting that UK cases of coronavirus are creeping up again, but the death rate has kept going down, so far.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on August 13, 2020, 07:03:00 PM
Interesting that UK cases of coronavirus are creeping up again, but the death rate has kept going down, so far.

Quite promising, it means in part that we are learning how better to deal with the illness caused by the virus. This was always likely to happen. In addition, some of the most vulnerable have already died so not as many vulnerable people for the virus to kill.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 13, 2020, 07:18:12 PM
Quite promising, it means in part that we are learning how better to deal with the illness caused by the virus. This was always likely to happen. In addition, some of the most vulnerable have already died so not as many vulnerable people for the virus to kill.
Though an increase in cases would have a time lag to deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on August 13, 2020, 08:17:28 PM
Though an increase in cases would have a time lag to deaths.

It would, and there will almost certainly be an increase in deaths, but our ability to mitigate some of the worst aspects of the virus will lead to fewer deaths than was the case at the beginning of the pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 13, 2020, 08:42:44 PM
It would, and there will almost certainly be an increase in deaths, but our ability to mitigate some of the worst aspects of the virus will lead to fewer deaths than was the case at the beginning of the pandemic.
Yep, there has been a great deal learned
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 14, 2020, 08:27:21 AM
Interesting that UK cases of coronavirus are creeping up again, but the death rate has kept going down, so far.

Death rate lags about two weeks behind infections.

Also, the NHS is better at treating the victims than it was at the start.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 14, 2020, 08:35:04 AM
I'm very concerned about what is going on in France at the moment. Infections have crept back up to over 2,000 per day. That concerns me for two reasons:

1.  We are probably going to have to reapply lock down measures in order to stop the same thing happening here.

2. My parents (got back from a three week holiday in Brittany last week) report that everything is more or less back to normal, except for mask wearing everywhere indoors.

The second point implies to me that masks aren't as effective in keeping the R number down as we had all hoped.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on August 14, 2020, 08:43:35 AM
Death rate lags about two weeks behind infections.

Also, the NHS is better at treating the victims than it was at the start.
I reckon it's a measurement/recording issue
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 14, 2020, 08:44:40 AM
I reckon it's a measurement/recording issue
Why?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on August 14, 2020, 08:54:40 AM
Why?
I'm not convinced that we the public are fully informed of the criteria used in measuring ,recording ,reporting of deaths caused solely by covid  or when and if the govmt change the criteria for whatever reason . Unless you are privy to the raw scientific data jeremy, (which you might be for all I know). To me the figures are just a guide so I don't read too much into it any more
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 14, 2020, 09:43:38 AM
I'm not convinced that we the public are fully informed of the criteria used in measuring ,recording ,reporting of deaths caused solely by covid  or when and if the govmt change the criteria for whatever reason .
We are not recording deaths solely caused by COVID19. The figures referred to are "deaths of people in hospitals and care homes who previously tested positive for COVID19". That means that some people who are recorded did not die of COVID19 and some people who died of COVID19 are not recorded. This is well known and accepted because the statistic is still a good proxy for how bad it is here.

Quote
Unless you are privy to the raw scientific data jeremy, (which you might be for all I know). To me the figures are just a guide so I don't read too much into it any more

The figure is just a guide, but as long as it is measured consistently, it is a useful guide. And it lags behind infections by about two or three weeks, but that is how long it usually takes to die.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on August 14, 2020, 09:48:01 AM
I'm not convinced that we the public are fully informed of the criteria used in measuring ,recording ,reporting of deaths caused solely by covid  or when and if the govmt change the criteria for whatever reason . Unless you are privy to the raw scientific data jeremy, (which you might be for all I know). To me the figures are just a guide so I don't read too much into it any more

Way, way back in this thread there was a conversation about the coding process in hospitals, which I used to be involved in peripherally, and even in that process there is always an element of not exactly error, more an openness to interpretation that leaves the figures just as you say a guide. The recent reduction in deaths in England attributed to Covid 19, is just one such example of said interpretation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on August 14, 2020, 09:50:41 AM
Way, way back in this thread there was a conversation about the coding process in hospitals, which I used to be involved in peripherally, and even in that process there is always an element of not exactly error, more an openness to interpretation that leaves the figures just as you say a guide. The recent reduction in deaths in England attributed to Covid 19, is just one such example of said interpretation.
Thanks Trent and keep up the good work  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on August 14, 2020, 09:52:14 AM
Thanks Trent and keep up the good work  :)

Oh not working anymore thank goodness. Was fortunate enough to leave work slightly earlier than planned.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on August 14, 2020, 09:54:57 AM
jeremyp

thanks for that  and 'consistently' is the key word here
and I don't know if it is , do you?  Who does and would they be bothered to tell us anyway ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on August 14, 2020, 09:57:37 AM
Oh not working anymore thank goodness. Was fortunate enough to leave work slightly earlier than planned.
well, enjoy yourself mate

      'one life, live it'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 14, 2020, 11:16:41 AM
Never understood why the track and trace thing wasn't mandatory in the first place. No background music will be a bit odd.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53772963
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 14, 2020, 11:40:28 AM
Never understood why the track and trace thing wasn't mandatory in the first place.

I honestly thought it was. I've been in three pubs/bars since they were allowed to open in England and none of them would let us in without the name and address of at least one member of the party.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 14, 2020, 11:52:32 AM
I honestly thought it was. I've been in three pubs/bars since they were allowed to open in England and none of them would let us in without the name and address of at least one member of the party.
TBH I don't know if this was a wrinkle in the Scottish regulations or something that pubs were generally following. I too have been in 3 pubs and 2 were scrupulously following track and trace but one wasn't. I left.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on August 14, 2020, 12:08:28 PM
TBH I don't know if this was a wrinkle in the Scottish regulations or something that pubs were generally following. I too have been in 3 pubs and 2 were scrupulously following track and trace but one wasn't. I left.
I've just moved into a new village it has 4 pubs, only one has Track n Trace  .In fact I thought it was the name of the Landlord and his wife !!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on August 14, 2020, 12:59:51 PM
I've just moved into a new village it has 4 pubs, only one has Track n Trace  .In fact I thought it was the name of the Landlord and his wife !!!
I went into a pub called the George and Dragon once. There was a middle-aged couple behind the bar. The woman was serving another customer, so I was served by George.
(True; it's in Wendover. It's now a gastropub, specialising in Thai cuisine.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walter on August 14, 2020, 01:32:31 PM
I went into a pub called the George and Dragon once. There was a middle-aged couple behind the bar. The woman was serving another customer, so I was served by George.
(True; it's in Wendover. It's now a gastropub, specialising in Thai cuisine.)
believe it or not I've been there Wilks.
I then moved on to the Dashwood arms at Piddington nr West Wycombe stayed there for 3 months helping out .
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on August 14, 2020, 01:39:19 PM
believe it or not I've been there Wilks.
I then moved on to the Dashwood arms at Piddington nr West Wycombe stayed there for 3 months helping out .
;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on August 16, 2020, 05:38:32 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53799854

Public Health England is to be replaced by an agency dealing with pandemics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 17, 2020, 08:50:03 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53799854

Public Health England is to be replaced by an agency dealing with pandemics.

I don't think PHE has done well but this doesn't strike me as being a well thought out fix. For a start, what is this new body going to do for the 49 out of 50 years when there isn't a pandemic?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on August 17, 2020, 08:59:43 AM
It is just the ritualistic response of an incompetent government tomake it appear that the blame for failure does not rest it it. Scapegoating.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 17, 2020, 09:09:52 AM
I don't think PHE has done well but this doesn't strike me as being a well thought out fix. For a start, what is this new body going to do for the 49 out of 50 years when there isn't a pandemic?

If, as the article suggests, it mirrors the Robert Koch Institute then it's remit would be a bit wider than that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Koch_Institute

But that wouldn't be as wide as PHE's remit was.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 17, 2020, 10:15:06 AM
If, as the article suggests, it mirrors the Robert Koch Institute then it's remit would be a bit wider than that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Koch_Institute

But that wouldn't be as wide as PHE's remit was.
PHE won't cease to exist according to the BBC article.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 17, 2020, 10:16:50 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53796434

New Zealand to postpone the general election to allow the parties to adjust to campaigning in the face of a pandemic.

I have to wonder what they've been doing for the last three months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on August 17, 2020, 10:38:36 AM
It is just the ritualistic response of an incompetent government tomake it appear that the blame for failure does not rest it it. Scapegoating.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EfmzPTxWoAAb7at.jpg
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 17, 2020, 04:05:24 PM

Can see some airports struggling to survive

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8634843/amp/Jet2-axes-102-pilots-latest-kick-teeth-air-industry.html?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 17, 2020, 07:11:01 PM
Can see some airports struggling to survive

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8634843/amp/Jet2-axes-102-pilots-latest-kick-teeth-air-industry.html?__twitter_impression=true

I can understand Stansted and Southend. Gatwick suddenly has a lot more capacity, so it makes sense for Easyjet to consolidate its Southern operations. Newcastle surprises me though. They had quite a busy route from Gatwick to Newcastle.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 17, 2020, 10:27:54 PM
Hmm..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53813480
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on August 17, 2020, 11:06:50 PM
Is that the same Dido Harding who is married to Tory MP John Penrose?

That is the John Penrose who sits on the advisory board of think tank "1828" which calls for "the NHS to be replaced by an insurance system and for Public Health England to be scrapped."

I believe she is.

Colour me fucking surprised.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 18, 2020, 08:28:05 AM
Is that the same Dido Harding who is married to Tory MP John Penrose?

That is the John Penrose who sits on the advisory board of think tank "1828" which calls for "the NHS to be replaced by an insurance system and for Public Health England to be scrapped."

I believe she is.

Colour me fucking surprised.
This Dido Harding

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8369217/NHS-test-trace-tsar-Dido-Harding-board-Cheltenham-Festival.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 18, 2020, 09:18:21 AM
More job losses


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53817598
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on August 18, 2020, 09:25:23 AM
This Dido Harding

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8369217/NHS-test-trace-tsar-Dido-Harding-board-Cheltenham-Festival.html
Dido and Aenaichess?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 18, 2020, 09:34:14 AM
Dido and Aenaichess?
Points for effort there.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on August 18, 2020, 11:12:53 AM
Interesting.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN25E08Y
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on August 18, 2020, 11:18:58 AM
More job losses


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53817598

M&S hasn't been doing well for quite a while, especially its clothes sector. The virus has made everything much worse for that company. :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on August 18, 2020, 12:04:52 PM
Interesting.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN25E08Y
It's evolving. Becoming more infectious and less harmful are both in the virus's interest. A virus which kills its victims in short order will be pretty unsuccessful at reproducing itself. The ideal virus, from the virus's own point of view, is one which is easily transmitted by droplet infection, and which makes its victims cough and sneeze, but not feel so ill that they isolate themselves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 18, 2020, 01:13:41 PM

Trump and the 'big' surge in New Zealand


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8637675/Jacinda-Ardern-war-words-Donald-Trump-New-Zealands-COVID-19-outbreak.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on August 18, 2020, 02:04:02 PM
Trump and the 'big' surge in New Zealand


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8637675/Jacinda-Ardern-war-words-Donald-Trump-New-Zealands-COVID-19-outbreak.html

One would expect nothing else from that ghastly excuse for a human! >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 18, 2020, 03:09:58 PM
As is noted in the article about the increase in people suffering from depression, it's not that surprising. As someone who does have depression, it's not been that bad in that I'm currently secure, was used to working from home, had a bit of dodgy commute, have spent more time with my wife as for the first time since we've been together neither of us is doing a lot of travelling, and have a big enough house that we are not on top of each other, and have outside space that could that meant didn't feel too trapped.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53820425
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on August 18, 2020, 03:26:45 PM
My husband and I have just been watching on our i-player last night's Panorama programme, hosted by Victoria Derbyshire, about domestic abuse, which got much worse during lockdown. It was shocking and very depressing! :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 18, 2020, 07:25:05 PM
Hmm..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53813480
In total this is a piece of idiotic  corruption
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 18, 2020, 08:12:23 PM
In total this is a piece of idiotic  corruption

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-husband-test-trace-chief-22128892
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on August 18, 2020, 11:25:10 PM
In total this is a piece of idiotic  corruption

It is. Words fail me. Well not quite.

It's not just the corruption, although that is quite breathtaking. It is also the promotion of the staggeringly inept.

Inept that is, unless other talents come to the fore that may facilitate the aim to destabilise the Health Service enough to justify further changes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 19, 2020, 10:05:19 AM
It is. Words fail me. Well not quite.

It's not just the corruption, although that is quite breathtaking. It is also the promotion of the staggeringly inept.

Inept that is, unless other talents come to the fore that may facilitate the aim to destabilise the Health Service enough to justify further changes.

Yes, the 1828 board must be extremely concerned that it has been infiltrated by the husband of somebody who works for the very organisations that it wants to abolish.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 19, 2020, 01:03:01 PM
This is very sad.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-53812587
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on August 19, 2020, 01:27:05 PM
This is very sad.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-53812587

TERRIBLE! >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 19, 2020, 02:00:41 PM

This, though, is rather lovely

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2020-08-16/covid-war-mash-doctor-alda-hawkeye?fbclid=IwAR1bvSjzULPRIVoytTXnaRq9y0nnkpGoVsHdSYThY_h5KZA-1aGljQ4Hr-A
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 26, 2020, 06:57:58 PM
The science keeps changing!!!!

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/tory-mp-says-hes-sick-of-the-science-changing-all-the-time/26/08/?fbclid=IwAR1WcepyPr1HOM4Dm5PCWtP2AXLVxMtvb51k2vb1d0lPv7OCAand0xUM1lQ
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 27, 2020, 06:45:22 PM
Feels like

https://youtu.be/dMnCaA9pVW0


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53938272
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 28, 2020, 10:13:33 AM
Feels like

https://youtu.be/dMnCaA9pVW0


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53938272

Given that we are relaxing lockdown and apparently testing more, I'm not surprised we have seen an increase in confirmed cases. After all, if we got rid of lock down and cases continued downwards, we'd probably have to question why we bothered to lock down at all.

Of more import is the fact that infections have been rising slowly since the second week of July but deaths have not started rising again. To put the current levels of deaths in perspective: annual flu deaths in the UK are around 10,000 which equates to about 200 per week. Coronavirus deaths have been about half that throughout August.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on August 28, 2020, 11:20:21 AM
Whilst the number of people testing positive for the virus appears to be rising, the death rate isn't. From what they were saying on this morning's news many of those who have it are young people who don't tend to get it seriously if they are normally fit and well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 28, 2020, 03:02:09 PM
Whilst the number of people testing positive for the virus appears to be rising, the death rate isn't. From what they were saying on this morning's news many of those who have it are young people who don't tend to get it seriously if they are normally fit and well.

There was a report on the BBC at lunch time today which suggested that children have a vanishingly small risk of dying from COVID19. It's not on their website though. Has anybody else seen it?

Edit: found it: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53932294

Six children in the study (out of 651) have died in hospital in the UK with COVID19 and all had underlying conditions. 18% needed to go into intensive care.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 28, 2020, 11:05:30 PM
Indeed

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/28/boris-johnson-home-nhs-government-office-commute?CMP=share_btn_tw
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on August 29, 2020, 08:23:38 AM
One this morning's news they said that kids who test positive, but with little or no symptoms, could pass on the virus to adults for up to three weeks after contacting it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 29, 2020, 05:37:55 PM

Loons!

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/29/coronavirus-sceptics-conspiracy-theorists-anti-vaxxers-protest-london?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other&__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on August 29, 2020, 06:14:03 PM
I have come across a number of these people on-line, they are dangerous loons. >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dicky Underpants on August 30, 2020, 06:04:13 PM
One this morning's news they said that kids who test positive, but with little or no symptoms, could pass on the virus to adults for up to three weeks after contacting it.
On Sunday Morning Live, most of the guests seemed to think that young people were being victimised over the recent 'spikes', attributed to their rave parties. Not even the guest medic pointed out that mass gatherings of any kind OUTSIDE seem to be quite safe, but mass gatherings INSIDE, of the rave party kind are a real danger.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 01, 2020, 09:39:59 AM
Bizarre

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/08/31/herman-cain-tweets-coronavirus-not-that-deadly-despite-having-died-from-it/?fbclid=IwAR0qHsYqwgaFzsS-0j4rk5DJx06CWXxd70GY8DEEueiyx5xC6CDf_RuO284#4e1072773c77
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on September 01, 2020, 10:07:29 AM
Bizarre

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/08/31/herman-cain-tweets-coronavirus-not-that-deadly-despite-having-died-from-it/?fbclid=IwAR0qHsYqwgaFzsS-0j4rk5DJx06CWXxd70GY8DEEueiyx5xC6CDf_RuO284#4e1072773c77
Very droll, but this is a classic example of generalising from a single instance. If I did that, you'd be down on me within minutes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 01, 2020, 10:09:03 AM
Very droll, but this is a classic example of generalising from a single instance. If I did that, you'd be down on me within minutes.
What generalizing is there in my post?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 01, 2020, 10:10:44 AM
Very droll, but this is a classic example of generalising from a single instance. If I did that, you'd be down on me within minutes.

I think the main bizarreness is somebody who has already died from COVID19 is tweeting it's not that deadly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on September 01, 2020, 10:42:05 AM
What generalizing is there in my post?
The implication that Coronavirus is indeed as deadly as is claimed, because someone who denied it died from it. It's ironic, but t proves nothing either way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 01, 2020, 10:45:01 AM
The implication that Coronavirus is indeed as deadly as is claimed, because someone who denied it died from it. It's ironic, but t proves nothing either way.
I didn't make any such generalization. I was just noting that the tweet from the dead was bizarre.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on September 01, 2020, 10:55:12 AM
I didn't make any such generalization. I was just noting that the tweet from the dead was bizarre.
Yeah, right. Have you ever admitted you were wrong about anything whatsoever?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 01, 2020, 11:00:22 AM
Yeah, right. Have you ever admitted you were wrong about anything whatsoever?
Yep, frequently. I am struggling to see your point here. Don't you think that the tweet from the dead was bizarre?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on September 01, 2020, 11:10:48 AM
Yep, frequently. I am struggling to see your point here. Don't you think that the tweet from the dead was bizarre?

Totally freaky! :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on September 01, 2020, 02:32:52 PM
I would find it interesting to know the average figures of deaths that would be expected in normal times compared to the figures we now have that would include death rates over this blasted coronavirus period and be able to see how much they have differed over the course of the shutdown?

Perhaps one of the more resourceful contributors to the forum knows where to find these figures if they have already been presented somewhere else?

ippy
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 01, 2020, 02:45:03 PM
I would find it interesting to know the average figures of deaths that would be expected in normal times compared to the figures we now have that would include death rates over this blasted coronavirus period and be able to see how much they have differed over the course of the shutdown?

Perhaps one of the more resourceful contributors to the forum knows where to find these figures if they have already been presented somewhere else?

ippy


https://www.theactuary.com/2020/08/19/excess-deaths-england-and-wales-continue-fall
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 01, 2020, 02:52:11 PM
I would find it interesting to know the average figures of deaths that would be expected in normal times compared to the figures we now have that would include death rates over this blasted coronavirus period and be able to see how much they have differed over the course of the shutdown?

Perhaps one of the more resourceful contributors to the forum knows where to find these figures if they have already been presented somewhere else?

ippy

The ONS produces a weekly report based on death certificates. They explicitly compare deaths against the five year average between 2014 and 2019. This week's report also has a comparison of COVID19 and influenza and pneumonia.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending14august2020

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 01, 2020, 06:59:36 PM
Not good


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53989021
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on September 02, 2020, 10:22:27 AM
Are any of this forum's Scottish members facing these restrictions?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 02, 2020, 10:36:33 AM
Yep
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 08, 2020, 06:57:28 AM
Of course


https://www.itv.com/news/central/2020-09-07/school-visited-by-boris-johnson-less-than-two-weeks-ago-confirms-coronavirus-case
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 08, 2020, 11:20:40 AM
And another of course


https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/church-leader-coronavirus-gay-marriage-a4542366.html?fbclid=IwAR2UYzULwsnLqSGggDXYBfF7QaN2YmMSxF46crdRX3mnjgGI36SC_CwTTZA
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on September 08, 2020, 04:01:45 PM
The doorbell rang, so I went to the front room window and opened it (much quicker than trying to find thkey and put it in the lock and open the door) and the man who was there stepped towards it. I cannot see who people are, cannot see any identifying label they are wearing, cannot see if they are wearing a mask or not, can only hear what they are saying with my hearing aids in (:))  !!

'We're not trying to sell anything,' he said, 'we're just asking four questions. '

First question: 'Do you know who supplies your electricity?'

No thank you, I said, that's quite enough.

My neighbour, who could see who was ringing the doorbell, ignored it and apparently he was wearing a face shiield, but I wish that kind of caller would just stay away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 09, 2020, 12:09:58 PM
If there is a cluster of cases arising from the Doncaster race meet, will Dido Harding be very annoyed at Dido Harding?

https://www.bbc.com/sport/horse-racing/54084761
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 09, 2020, 02:25:11 PM
My brother and sister in law, having returned from a holiday in France are in quarantine for 14 days. Fortunately they both have jobs that allow them to work from home.

Anyway, somebody in their organisation (not either of them) decided to go out shopping while they were in quarantine. Their mobile phone rang and the conversation went something like this:

"Hello, we are just following up on quarantines. Are you at home right now?"

"Yes"

"OK, do you mind coming to the door so we can do a swab test?"

Fined twice over: once for breaking quarantine and once for lying about it to the police.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on September 09, 2020, 03:13:34 PM
My brother and sister in law, having returned from a holiday in France are in quarantine for 14 days. Fortunately they both have jobs that allow them to work from home.

Anyway, somebody in their organisation (not either of them) decided to go out shopping while they were in quarantine. Their mobile phone rang and the conversation went something like this:

"Hello, we are just following up on quarantines. Are you at home right now?"

"Yes"

"OK, do you mind coming to the door so we can do a swab test?"

Fined twice over: once for breaking quarantine and once for lying about it to the police.

Good. Selfish attitude.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 10, 2020, 02:24:51 PM
Operation Moonshot - Operation Bullshit
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on September 10, 2020, 02:34:24 PM
How long is it going to be before someone realises in the tory party that he,Johnson is the existential threat to toryism.

The Basic premise of Cummingsism promote rule by fomenting anarchy is flawed isn't it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 12, 2020, 12:44:39 PM
Found this on the Book of Face - worth reading:

Quote From Dr. Fauci:

“Chickenpox is a virus. Lots of people have had it, and probably don't think about it much once the initial illness has passed. But it stays in your body and lives there forever, and maybe when you're older, you have debilitatingly painful outbreaks of shingles. You don't just get over this virus in a few weeks, never to have another health effect. We know this because it's been around for years, and has been studied medically for years.
Herpes is also a virus. And once someone has it, it stays in your body and lives there forever, and anytime they get a little run down or stressed-out they're going to have an outbreak. Maybe every time you have a big event coming up (school pictures, job interview, big date) you're going to get a cold sore. For the rest of your life. You don't just get over it in a few weeks. We know this because it's been around for years, and been studied medically for years.
HIV is a virus. It attacks the immune system and makes the carrier far more vulnerable to other illnesses. It has a list of symptoms and negative health impacts that goes on and on. It was decades before viable treatments were developed that allowed people to live with a reasonable quality of life. Once you have it, it lives in your body forever and there is no cure. Over time, that takes a toll on the body, putting people living with HIV at greater risk for health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, diabetes, bone disease, liver disease, cognitive disorders, and some types of cancer. We know this because it has been around for years, and had been studied medically for years.
Now with COVID-19, we have a novel virus that spreads rapidly and easily. The full spectrum of symptoms and health effects is only just beginning to be cataloged, much less understood.
So far the symptoms may include:
Fever
Fatigue
Coughing
Pneumonia
Chills/Trembling
Acute respiratory distress
Lung damage (potentially permanent)
Loss of taste (a neurological symptom)
Sore throat
Headaches
Difficulty breathing
Mental confusion
Diarrhea
Nausea or vomiting
Loss of appetite
Strokes have also been reported in some people who have COVID-19 (even in the relatively young)
Swollen eyes
Blood clots
Seizures
Liver damage
Kidney damage
Rash
COVID toes (weird, right?)
People testing positive for COVID-19 have been documented to be sick even after 60 days. Many people are sick for weeks, get better, and then experience a rapid and sudden flare up and get sick all over again. A man in Seattle was hospitalized for 62 days, and while well enough to be released, still has a long road of recovery ahead of him. Not to mention a $1.1 million medical bill.
Then there is MIS-C. Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children is a condition where different body parts can become inflamed, including the heart, lungs, kidneys, brain, skin, eyes, or gastrointestinal organs. Children with MIS-C may have a fever and various symptoms, including abdominal pain, vomiting, diarrhea, neck pain, rash, bloodshot eyes, or feeling extra tired. While rare, it has caused deaths.
This disease has not been around for years. It has basically been 6 months. No one knows yet the long-term health effects, or how it may present itself years down the road for people who have been exposed. We literally *do not know* what we do not know.
For those in our society who suggest that people being cautious are cowards, for people who refuse to take even the simplest of precautions to protect themselves and those around them, I want to ask, without hyperbole and in all sincerity:
How dare you?
How dare you risk the lives of others so cavalierly. How dare you decide for others that they should welcome exposure as "getting it over with", when literally no one knows who will be the lucky "mild symptoms" case, and who may fall ill and die. Because while we know that some people are more susceptible to suffering a more serious case, we also know that 20 and 30-year-olds have died, marathon runners and fitness nuts have died, children and infants have died.
How dare you behave as though you know more than medical experts, when those same experts acknowledge that there is so much we don't yet know, but with what we DO know, are smart enough to be scared of how easily this is spread, and recommend baseline precautions such as:
Frequent hand-washing
Physical distancing
Reduced social/public contact or interaction
Mask wearing
Covering your cough or sneeze
Avoiding touching your face
Sanitizing frequently touched surfaces
The more things we can all do to mitigate our risk of exposure, the better off we all are, in my opinion. Not only does it flatten the curve and allow health care providers to maintain levels of service that aren't immediately and catastrophically overwhelmed; it also reduces unnecessary suffering and deaths, and buys time for the scientific community to study the virus in order to come to a more full understanding of the breadth of its impacts in both the short and long term.
I reject the notion that it's "just a virus" and we'll all get it eventually. What a careless, lazy, heartless stance.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 14, 2020, 01:30:57 PM

Keir Starmer self isolating

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-labour-leader-sir-keir-starmer-self-isolating-after-household-member-showed-covid-19-symptoms-12071690?fbclid=IwAR20-hzvx8KmlbAWLjtePawFktmGi9eK3ooliO4fygthYEt37xYaRbYAATk
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 14, 2020, 02:12:15 PM
Hunting and shooting exempt from 'rule of six'


https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/boris-johnson-rule-of-six-hunting-shooting-exemption_uk_5f5f4ad0c5b6b4850803110f/?ggg=&__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 14, 2020, 06:04:17 PM
World beating...


https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/14/utter-shambles-gps-and-medics-decry-nhs-test-and-trace-system?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 14, 2020, 06:29:54 PM
Corrupt and stupid


https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/local-news/perth-kinross-councillor-claims-covid-22679363?fbclid=IwAR3lkQ0DHZKY9mJ2WpaEuycEyAPdu1iWioEfW0wWhk_QfUeGrLuUcwJiy84
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 15, 2020, 11:43:25 AM
Meanwhile useless Covid blockers

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-africa-54087605
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 15, 2020, 12:04:37 PM
Continued problems testing NHS staff


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54156889
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 17, 2020, 06:39:11 PM

Have to say this seems right to me.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/bbc-scotland-announces-u-turn-22701022?fbclid=IwAR39iQUK0CcPEPny8oVKaYClARLwg55DfIrO3Et3JJBXS06QZHe2pBORq04
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 18, 2020, 10:30:55 AM
Have to say this seems right to me.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/bbc-scotland-announces-u-turn-22701022?fbclid=IwAR39iQUK0CcPEPny8oVKaYClARLwg55DfIrO3Et3JJBXS06QZHe2pBORq04
Have to say: hasn't she got anything better to do with her time? I'm not saying the daily briefings shouldn't happen. In fact I wish the UK daily briefings were still happening, but they could easily be done by the minister in charge of health or some lesser official.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on September 18, 2020, 10:46:34 AM
Have to say: hasn't she got anything better to do with her time? I'm not saying the daily briefings shouldn't happen. In fact I wish the UK daily briefings were still happening, but they could easily be done by the minister in charge of health or some lesser official.

I think they are very worthwhile and watch them regularly - she also takes questions from journalists and doesn't do the wiffle-waffle you see from the likes of Boris the liar.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 18, 2020, 10:50:52 AM
I think they are very worthwhile and watch them regularly - she also takes questions from journalists and doesn't do the wiffle-waffle you see from the likes of Boris the liar.

I do not dispute the value of the daily briefing. I only question the need for them to be conducted by the First Minister every day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 18, 2020, 11:19:36 AM
Have to say: hasn't she got anything better to do with her time? I'm not saying the daily briefings shouldn't happen. In fact I wish the UK daily briefings were still happening, but they could easily be done by the minister in charge of health or some lesser official.
I'm not sure there is. It's an hour or so a day and it's dealing with the main concern of the govt at this time. It provides continuity at a time when many people are worried. Note the main issue with the story here was BBC Scotland's decision to stop showing the briefings, and thinking people could access them on line. Given many of those most concerned about Covid are elderly and in a group less likely to access online, this seemed the wrong decision to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 18, 2020, 11:52:20 AM
I'm not sure there is. It's an hour or so a day and it's dealing with the main concern of the govt at this time.
It's a whole hour or more every day of the First Minister's time. There's absolutely no reason for her to do it, unless she's got nothing else to do.

Quote
Note the main issue with the story here was BBC Scotland's decision to stop showing the briefings, and thinking people could access them on line. Given many of those most concerned about Covid are elderly and in a group less likely to access online, this seemed the wrong decision to me.

I'm not saying they shouldn't be shown. I'm saying it is unnecessary for the First Minister to be doing them rather than somebody else like the health minister, for example.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 18, 2020, 11:58:09 AM
It's a whole hour or more every day of the First Minister's time. There's absolutely no reason for her to do it, unless she's got nothing else to do.

I'm not saying they shouldn't be shown. I'm saying it is unnecessary for the First Minister to be doing them rather than somebody else like the health minister, for example.
Yes, I got your point, I was just pointing out that the story was not about the continuation of the briefings or who is doing them.

If you are trying to show how seriously it's being taken, it seems a perfectly sensible reason to me to have the briefing done by the FM,
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 18, 2020, 12:02:15 PM
The number of infections in France and Spain are now at higher levels than the initial peaks - though much of that may be to do with more testing. Given that there was a fairly close correlation with France, Spain and Italy in the first peak, I'm wondering what is significantly different this time with Italy which doesn't seem to be experiencing anything like a similar surge.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 18, 2020, 12:05:27 PM
If you are trying to show how seriously it's being taken, it seems a perfectly sensible reason to me to have the briefing done by the FM,
The very fact of having a daily briefing would do that. Even at the height of the crisis, the UK wide briefings were handled perfectly well by several of the government ministers on a rotating basis (even after the PM had recovered). Frankly, I think Sturgeon is grandstanding, unless she really has got fuck all else to do and I don't believe that.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 18, 2020, 12:17:24 PM
The very fact of having a daily briefing would do that. Even at the height of the crisis, the UK wide briefings were handled perfectly well by several of the government ministers on a rotating basis (even after the PM had recovered). Frankly, I think Sturgeon is grandstanding, unless she really has got fuck all else to do and I don't believe that.
There were lots of comments when Johnson did very few briefings that he wasn't taking it seriously. Covid is the big story and the big thing that action is being taken on. Why the FM should not take that into account just seems odd to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 18, 2020, 12:18:31 PM
Anyway apparently we should be listening to Van Morrison


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-54194408
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 18, 2020, 03:53:10 PM
In addition to the benefit of showing how seriously the Scottish govt is taking Covid, I think having the FM doing the briefing highlights the possible changes overall in lockdown, and says to people that they should take it seriously


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54203794
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 19, 2020, 09:14:03 AM
There were lots of comments when Johnson did very few briefings that he wasn't taking it seriously.
Boris Johnson was very seriously ill with COVID19. Any claims that he wasn't taking it seriously are bullshit.

Quote
Covid is the big story and the big thing that action is being taken on. Why the FM should not take that into account just seems odd to me.
But every day the First Minister of Scotland goes on telly to read out some routine statistics. It would be far better if a minion did it most days and the First Minister came on only when there are serious developments, for example, when there is a policy change.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on September 19, 2020, 09:18:38 AM
But every day the First Minister of Scotland goes on telly to read out some routine statistics. It would be far better if a minion did it most days and the First Minister came on only when there are serious developments, for example, when there is a policy change.

She does more than that though, such as dealing with questions: it shows leadership, and allows continuity of messaging.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 19, 2020, 09:59:44 AM
Boris Johnson was very seriously ill with COVID19. Any claims that he wasn't taking it seriously are bullshit.
But every day the First Minister of Scotland goes on telly to read out some routine statistics. It would be far better if a minion did it most days and the First Minister came on only when there are serious developments, for example, when there is a policy change.
The questions about taking it seriously started way before he had Covid. If you think it can be done by a 'minion', you aren't taking it seriously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 19, 2020, 11:46:22 AM
Dido, Queen of Carnage

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/18/matt-hancock-test-and-trace-dido-harding?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 19, 2020, 01:52:51 PM

Eejit!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-54205353
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 19, 2020, 03:06:09 PM
The questions about taking it seriously started way before he had Covid. If you think it can be done by a 'minion', you aren't taking it seriously.

If you think that the only way for the First Minister or Prime Minister to demonstrate they are taking it seriously is to stand up and read the statistics out every day, then you are part of the problem. It's a facile "appearances are more important than substance" attitude and I despise it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 19, 2020, 03:16:43 PM
Eejit!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-54205353

Yes he is, but he probably isn't the only person to contribute to the spike. Bolton has a population of about 200,000 people, so the spike is around 400 new infections. Unless it happened a month or two ago, it's unlikely all those 400 infections came from one person.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 19, 2020, 03:20:45 PM
If you think that the only way for the First Minister or Prime Minister to demonstrate they are taking it seriously is to stand up and read the statistics out every day, then you are part of the problem. It's a facile "appearances are more important than substance" attitude and I despise it.
If you don't think appearances are part of the substance here then you are not thinking clearly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 19, 2020, 03:22:08 PM
Yes he is, but he probably isn't the only person to contribute to the spike. Bolton has a population of about 200,000 people, so the spike is around 400 new infections. Unless it happened a month or two ago, it's unlikely all those 400 infections came from one person.
The report doesn't say that he was solely responsible so not sure what you are arguing about
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on September 19, 2020, 07:24:59 PM
Dido, Queen of Carnage
;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 19, 2020, 08:07:55 PM
Govt not to blame, fat people are.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-covid-death-toll-obesity-government-fault-a4550866.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on September 19, 2020, 08:17:17 PM
And COVID-19 is busy creating fat people. What else is there to do under lockdown than eat .... ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 19, 2020, 08:31:01 PM
And COVID-19 is busy creating fat people. What else is there to do under lockdown than eat .... ?

Drink and toke

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/sep/09/almost-half-of-britons-drinking-more-due-to-covid-survey-finds
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on September 19, 2020, 09:27:27 PM
While I would agree that the government has little control over whether people become obese, and apparently Covid-19 hits obese people disproportionately hard, no matter their income, the government can't escape responsibility for the massive spike in Covid deaths that happened in care homes because older people were sent from hospitals to care homes without being tested for Covid first. And the lack of testing capacity, which means we cannot contain and isolate infectious people (especially asymptomatic people) and thereby reduce transmission is the responsibility of the government.

We should have been testing in March when the WHO told us to. Though having said that, per capita the UK seems to now be doing more testing than any other country bar Israel.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104645/covid19-testing-rate-select-countries-worldwide/

The main cause of obesity is diet rather than exercise. I lose weight every Ramadan because for large parts of the day I am not able to consume anything. I obviously have no idea what it feels like to be unable to stop yourself consuming excessive amounts of food or alcohol or why some people's brains cannot limit consumption while others can. But I sympathise as craving food or alcohol to the point where you unable to stop yourself consuming them even though you know it could lead to your death is a very unfortunate position to be in. But I agree that the government cannot be held responsible for deaths caused for these reasons. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 19, 2020, 09:48:59 PM
But it can't be despicable to question govt action as the claim was.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on September 19, 2020, 10:15:33 PM
But it can't be despicable to question govt action as the claim was.
Yes I don't think it's despicable to question mortality rates where these are due to lack of testing which allowed people who had Covid-19 to transmit to people in vulnerable categories rather than quarantining themselves.

Once vulnerable people got Covid they had a high mortality rate - but there was not much the government could do about that.

I heard  Angela Rayner I think it was on Radio 4 today claiming that our ambition should be zero Covid deaths going forward and the government was not doing enough to achieve that. The interviewer pointed out that measures to contain Covid-19 could mean people are economically and emotionally damaged to the point where they cannot cope. Angela Raynor's response consisted of meaningless platitudes and sound bites without offering any actual solutions - she said we are ready to support the government in coming up with measures to protect the people ....or some such nonsense.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on September 20, 2020, 08:36:28 AM
But it can't be despicable to question govt action as the claim was.
From what I hear from a couple of friends who follow political ins and outs, it is not so much the actual testing but getting the results that is the main problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 20, 2020, 03:57:38 PM
From what I hear from a couple of friends who follow political ins and outs, it is not so much the actual testing but getting the results that is the main problem.
No, the availability of the testing is also a huge problem. It's all a bit of a post code lottery and Dido Harding seems surprised that the return of schools has lead to an increase in demand.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 21, 2020, 11:15:35 AM
I think a lot in this about society living with Covid makes sense. The original lockdown made sense because we knew very little about it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54228649
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on September 21, 2020, 11:53:23 AM
I think a lot in this about society living with Covid makes sense. The original lockdown made sense because we knew very little about it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54228649

Of-course there are good points and we will have to learn to live with the virus, preferably with vaccines and treatments at hand, but what actual measures does Heneghan propose to contain the possible exponential rise over winter clearly described by Vallance and Whitty in this mornings presentation? 

Aside, I thought they did much better on this than in the previous briefings : concentrating on factual information and being careful with their wording.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 22, 2020, 10:45:57 AM
The report doesn't say that he was solely responsible so not sure what you are arguing about
It gives the impression that it was all his fault. The danger is that the people of Bolton will say "it was all that idiot" and not take the measures that they need to  to stop it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 22, 2020, 11:04:58 AM
Of-course there are good points and we will have to learn to live with the virus, preferably with vaccines and treatments at hand, but what actual measures does Heneghan propose to contain the possible exponential rise over winter clearly described by Vallance and Whitty in this mornings presentation? 

Aside, I thought they did much better on this than in the previous briefings : concentrating on factual information and being careful with their wording.
I think we'll get to the point where there is no alternative but to live with the virus. It looks increasingly likely that people do not become permanently immune to the disease and that would probably spell doom for any vaccine too.

Either we'll lose our squeamishness about death from the disease or we'll learn to live permanently with some lockdown measures or most probably some combination of the two.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 22, 2020, 01:42:36 PM
I think we'll get to the point where there is no alternative but to live with the virus. It looks increasingly likely that people do not become permanently immune to the disease and that would probably spell doom for any vaccine too.

Either we'll lose our squeamishness about death from the disease or we'll learn to live permanently with some lockdown measures or most probably some combination of the two.

Agree. The whole go back to the office thing has been an utter disaster of a message though. The worrying thing is that apart from the pubs and restaurants opening hours thing most of the new English restrictions have applied in Scotland already and we may well have a higher R number.

That said I really think we need to look to live with it more than we have. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 22, 2020, 02:22:12 PM
Why have other countries, like Italy & Germany, recovered better? PM: "There is a difference between our country and others. Ours is a freedom-loving country... It's very difficult to ask the British population uniformly to obey guidelines in the way that is necessary".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 22, 2020, 03:22:28 PM
The whole go back to the office thing has been an utter disaster of a message though.

I cannot believe that Boris even opened his mouth to suggest that.

Quote
The worrying thing is that apart from the pubs and restaurants opening hours thing most of the new English restrictions have applied in Scotland already and we may well have a higher R number.
I think the pub opening hours restriction will have a greatly beneficial effect. Other than that, I think it's good that England is coming more into line with Scotland. Most of the country's population is in England and it is more densely packed than other parts of the UK. If anything the restrictions need to be more restrictive than Scotland.

I think they will have an effect. In fact, I think the rule of six will probably have an effect, but we haven't given it time to work yet.
Quote
That said I really think we need to look to live with it more than we have.
Agreed. And we will, one way or another. In days gone by, humans lived with the possibility of death by disease as an ever present threat. Obviously, we don't want to go back to that if we can avoid it and I think we an - to an extent. I think our best chance is not a vaccine but improving hospital care to get the mortality rate down. If we can get it down to flu like levels of mortality, we can start thinking of it more like we think of flu. In a bad year, flu kills about 20-30 thousand people in the UK and we put up with it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 22, 2020, 03:34:12 PM
Why have other countries, like Italy & Germany, recovered better? PM: "There is a difference between our country and others. Ours is a freedom-loving country... It's very difficult to ask the British population uniformly to obey guidelines in the way that is necessary".

Have other countries recovered better? We can cite Italy and Germany, but they have both had their upturns in cases. If we cite Italy and France, both of these countries seem to be in worse trouble than us now (https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&country=ITA~DEU~FRA~ESP~GBR&region=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&aligned=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc).

ETA: Boris's answer to the question was still bollocks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 22, 2020, 03:36:25 PM
I think the pub opening hours restriction will have a greatly beneficial effect.
I'm sceptical - I really don't see why closing pubs at 10am is going to have a major impact. People will either just move their pub-going earlier, potentially you'll end up with more people packed in during the hours of 8-10pm. And of course once kicked out of the pub people will head to the park (if weather permits) or back home in groups to continue drinking. Not allowed in the rules, of course, but how on earth are they going to be enforced.

I think these changes are going to make very little difference, and are probably designed to have limited effect on most people's lives. Problem is that in a couple of weeks when things are still getting worse (as they will inevitable be due to the flywheel effect) we'll be getting a new announcement with more strict measures. Frankly better to bring these into effect now than in two weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 22, 2020, 03:46:52 PM
I'm sceptical - I really don't see why closing pubs at 10am is going to have a major impact.
Because people will be less pissed.

Quote
People will either just move their pub-going earlier, potentially you'll end up with more people packed in during the hours of 8-10pm.
Some will. Some won't. Some will look at the busy pub at 8pm and say "no thanks".

Quote
And of course once kicked out of the pub people will head to the park
Which is at least outdoors and hence a lower risk.

Quote
I think these changes are going to make very little difference, and are probably designed to have limited effect on most people's lives. Problem is that in a couple of weeks when things are still getting worse (as they will inevitable be due to the flywheel effect) we'll be getting a new announcement with more strict measures. Frankly better to bring these into effect now than in two weeks.
I think, whether they are successful or not depends on how well the restrictions are enforced. The rule of six and the reversal on the "go back to work" policy by themselves will make some difference. I think it's more a case of will they be enough to stop the rise in cases? Unfortunately, we won't know for two or three weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 22, 2020, 03:50:46 PM
Because people will be less pissed.
Not necessarily - the earlier closing time may just increase the rate of drinking.

Some will. Some won't. Some will look at the busy pub at 8pm and say "no thanks".
Others will just turn up earlier - starting at 6pm rather than 8pm.

Which is at least outdoors and hence a lower risk.
Not if everyone is huddled together because it is getting parky at this time of the year at 10pm. Nor if groups larger than 6 get together which is easier outdoor in the dark rather than in a managed pub.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 22, 2020, 03:55:14 PM
I think, whether they are successful or not depends on how well the restrictions are enforced.
I agree, but I think the early pub closure is a sticking plaster on a wound that is bleeding at an increasingly rapid rate.

The rule of six and the reversal on the "go back to work" policy by themselves will make some difference. I think it's more a case of will they be enough to stop the rise in cases? Unfortunately, we won't know for two or three weeks.
The problem is that the government are looking reactive and ever changing - the rule of 6 was supposed to be the new clear (and preamble long range) message. Yet within days it is being superseded with new interventions. And I suspect in a couple a weeks today's announcements will be superseded again. The difficulty is that all this leads to is confusion rather than clarity and that leads to people failing to comply due to 'message fatigue' or genuinely being confused about what they can and cannot do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 22, 2020, 04:33:49 PM
Quote
The problem is that the government are looking reactive and ever changing - the rule of 6 was supposed to be the new clear (and preamble long range) message. Yet within days it is being superseded with new interventions. And I suspect in a couple a weeks today's announcements will be superseded again. The difficulty is that all this leads to is confusion rather than clarity and that leads to people failing to comply due to 'message fatigue' or genuinely being confused about what they can and cannot do.

I think this one of the biggest issues. The fact that the TV news presents at least 4 different sets of rules for the constituent parts of the UK is confusing enough. Then the govt. changes the instructions at regular intervals, and then add on the complexities of local and regional lockdowns it is no small wonder that the general population is confused as to what they are supposed to do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 22, 2020, 04:46:21 PM
I think this one of the biggest issues. The fact that the TV news presents at least 4 different sets of rules for the constituent parts of the UK is confusing enough. Then the govt. changes the instructions at regular intervals, and then add on the complexities of local and regional lockdowns it is no small wonder that the general population is confused as to what they are supposed to do.
I think that's right.

I suspect policy/guidance restrictions will be a moving target for a while, with each new intervention rapidly superseded as government(s) recognise that the increase in cases, and in due course hospital admissions plus deaths isn't slowing or reversing rapidly.

That makes messaging very difficult. That contrasts with the situation in the Spring when the 'Stay at home; Protect the NHS; Save lives' message can in. That was clear, consistent and didn't change for a considerable amount of time. Getting nuance, local tweaking and changing messages right is very, very difficult.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 22, 2020, 06:25:32 PM
Not necessarily - the earlier closing time may just increase the rate of drinking.
For some people it will. For others it won’t. Taking everybody into account which (you may be surprised to learn) includes a lot of people who aren’t there just to drink their drunkenness quota, it will improve the situation.

Quote
Not if everyone is huddled together because it is getting parky at this time of the year at 10pm. Nor if groups larger than 6 get together which is easier outdoor in the dark rather than in a managed pub.
If it’s parky they’ll go home. If they don’t go home, the police can fine them.

This is about changing the behaviour of the population in general. Some small proportion will not behave as we want, but most people will.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 22, 2020, 06:26:35 PM
I agree, but I think the early pub closure is a sticking plaster on a wound that is bleeding at an increasingly rapid rate.
The problem is that the government are looking reactive and ever changing - the rule of 6 was supposed to be the new clear (and preamble long range) message. Yet within days it is being superseded with new interventions. And I suspect in a couple a weeks today's announcements will be superseded again. The difficulty is that all this leads to is confusion rather than clarity and that leads to people failing to comply due to 'message fatigue' or genuinely being confused about what they can and cannot do.

The rule of six hasn’t been superseded.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 22, 2020, 06:27:43 PM
The rule of six hasn’t been superseded.

I rest my case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 22, 2020, 06:33:00 PM
I think this one of the biggest issues. The fact that the TV news presents at least 4 different sets of rules for the constituent parts of the UK is confusing enough. Then the govt. changes the instructions at regular intervals, and then add on the complexities of local and regional lockdowns it is no small wonder that the general population is confused as to what they are supposed to do.
The government has to change the rules at regular intervals. Not reacting to changes in the situation just because Trentvoyager gets confused is not a valid strategy. I suggest you read some of the government’s own publications instead of relying on the media to inform you. I mean that seriously: I was confused about the rule of six until I read the explanation on gov.uk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 22, 2020, 06:40:05 PM
The government has to change the rules at regular intervals. Not reacting to changes in the situation just because Trentvoyager gets confused is not a valid strategy. I suggest you read some of the government’s own publications instead of relying on the media to inform you. I mean that seriously: I was confused about the rule of six until I read the explanation on gov.uk.

Yes. Lets get all of us to look at gov.uk - such fun to watch it crash. You expect everyone to look it up, when there are perfectly valid means of communication available to inform virtually everyone via tv & radio.

Seriously?

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on September 22, 2020, 07:34:40 PM
John Crace's take on Boris's attempts at leadership today.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/22/its-boristime-v-coronatime-and-theres-only-ever-one-winner
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 22, 2020, 07:44:29 PM

A new wrinkle

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/22/younger-women-bearing-brunt-of-second-wave-of-covid-in-uk?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 22, 2020, 08:06:19 PM
From May


https://youtu.be/sfrThV6DJu4
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 23, 2020, 09:03:19 AM
Yes. Lets get all of us to look at gov.uk - such fun to watch it crash.
Really? Is that your argument for not informing yourself? It's a static web page. It's not going to crash.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing

Quote
You expect everyone to look it up, when there are perfectly valid means of communication available to inform virtually everyone via tv & radio.
Boris Johnson was televised at lunchtime yesterday setting out the new rules in Parliament and then again at 8pm in the evening. Did you bother to watch either?

I agree that the media coverage can be quite confusing, but that's their fault, not that of the government.
Quote
Seriously?
Yes. Seriously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 23, 2020, 09:08:42 AM
John Crace's take on Boris's attempts at leadership today.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/22/its-boristime-v-coronatime-and-theres-only-ever-one-winner

What about your take? I assume you watched it.



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 23, 2020, 09:13:19 AM
Really? Is that your argument for not informing yourself? It's a static web page. It's not going to crash.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing
Boris Johnson was televised at lunchtime yesterday setting out the new rules in Parliament and then again at 8pm in the evening. Did you bother to watch either?

I agree that the media coverage can be quite confusing, but that's their fault, not that of the government. Yes. Seriously.
I'm sorry Jeremy, but there are all sorts of areas where the message (and messaging) is a mess. Effectively 'headline' rules being brought in without thinking about the detail and all the questions that will arise.

So here is an example.

I (like millions of people) am a member of a choir. Through August and early September we worked diligently towards being able to return to live rehearsals. It took weeks for the DCMS to clarify whether this was, or was not, even possible, following the summer relaxation of rules. We'd got to the point of determining capacity with strict 2M social distancing, covid-safe rules etc.

Then the rule of six came in, without any clarity as to whether it applied to an organised indoor activity such as a choir. Our plans were thrown into confusion. Just a few days ago there was final conformation that we were exempt - in other words with appropriate measures we could have more than 6 people. Now there is confusion again with DCMS seemingly suggesting that the rules have changed (despite the fact that the new rules don't seem to impact on the basis rule of 6) and that we can only have 6 people attending (which of course is pointless).

That is the kind of problem we are facing. Government makes knee jerk changes, announced as headlines, but without thinking through the details.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 23, 2020, 09:21:38 AM
What about your take? I assume you watched it.
I watched it - guff, whaffle, inappropriate body language (all that weird fist-pumping stuff) and no clarity of message. At a time like this we need leadership, and we aren't getting it (or at least not in England).

And, of course, the strongest whiff of rank hypocrisy - a man telling us we had to obey the rules or there would be severe consequences, who completely exonerated his own special advisor when he breached his own guidance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 23, 2020, 09:27:55 AM
So here is an example.

I (like millions of people) am a member of a choir. Through August and early September we worked diligently towards being able to return to live rehearsals. It took weeks for the DCMS to clarify whether this was, or was not, even possible, following the summer relaxation of rules. We'd got to the point of determining capacity with strict 2M social distancing, covid-safe rules etc.

Then the rule of six came in, without any clarity as to whether it applied to an organised indoor activity such as a choir.
What do you mean? It says seven people cannot gather together. It means your choir is screwed.

Quote
Our plans were thrown into confusion. Just a few days ago there was final conformation that we were exempt
From whom did the confirmation come? Government guidelines are clear. You shouldn't have been allowed to go through with it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 23, 2020, 09:35:10 AM
I watched it - guff, whaffle, inappropriate body language (all that weird fist-pumping stuff) and no clarity of message. At a time like this we need leadership, and we aren't getting it (or at least not in England).
I watched it. The Churchillian rhetoric was misplaced. Actually, it reminded me of Jim Hacker, but I digress.

However, the message was pretty clear.

Quote
And, of course, the strongest whiff of rank hypocrisy - a man telling us we had to obey the rules or there would be severe consequences, who completely exonerated his own special advisor when he breached his own guidance.
Boo hoo. A government advisor got away with a slap on the wrist for a minor transgression, much like anybody else would. Maybe he should have been sacked, but he wasn't. Get over it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 23, 2020, 09:37:56 AM
What do you mean? It says seven people cannot gather together. It means your choir is screwed.
There you go - for all your claim that the rules are simple/clear and you understand them, you've just proved you don't.

Seven people can gather together provided it isn't classified as a social gathering, is an organised activity with assessment of the risk and appropriate mitigation measures put in place. We had considered returning to our normal rehearsal venue, but as it isn't huge we'd only be able to have 24 singers, with strict 2M distancing. So we'd provisionally booked our local cathedral with much greater capacity at 2M distancing. All within the rules, once clarified last week by DCMS.

Or at least that was the clarification released by DCMS on 17th Sept (more than a week after the rule of six announcement). However it is now unclear whether the 17th Sept clarification remains the current position or not following this week's announcement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 23, 2020, 09:41:48 AM
From whom did the confirmation come? Government guidelines are clear.
The Department of Culture, Media and Sport - i.e. the Government.

The point is that while the 'headline' might seem simply, the detail and its application to individual circumstances and situations is not. The government knows this yet doesn't do the leg work to release the detailed guidance at the same time as the headline - throwing all sorts of areas of our lives into unnecessary confusion.

You shouldn't have been allowed to go through with it.
But we are (or at least we were until yesterday, or maybe we still are) - because belatedly this is the government view or at least it was from 17th Sept to 22nd Sept - now, who knows.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 23, 2020, 09:50:48 AM
Boo hoo. A government advisor got away with a slap on the wrist for a minor transgression, much like anybody else would. Maybe he should have been sacked, but he wasn't. Get over it.
Others were sacked or resigned for lesser transgressions and they weren't the architect of the rules.

What you are missing is the corrosive effect this had, and continues to have, on trust in the government. This nosedived due to Cummings and hasn't come back. The perception of one rule for the elite and another for the little people is caustic.

Why does this matter - well because it is impossible to fully police and enforce the lockdown rules - they only work by consent, and consent only works if there is trust.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 23, 2020, 11:35:24 AM
Quote
Boris Johnson was televised at lunchtime yesterday setting out the new rules in Parliament and then again at 8pm in the evening. Did you bother to watch either?

Yes I did. Why the badgering tone? Why must you start an argument in an empty room?

Anyway, it doesn't affect me/us directly as we are doing what we have done from the start of the pandemic. Staying isolated except for trips to Sainsburys and walks on the coast and South Downs. No visitors. No pubs. No restaurants. No needing to look at the gov.uk website currently. Of course there are some who won't bother to look at websites and take their lead from the confusing messaging from the media. Take it up with them.

I won't engage with you further on this thread as you just want to pick arguments with people who don't have your god-like propensity to understand this shambles of a governments messaging.

I find it a tad perplexing that you quite rightly (in my view) cut them no slack of the ongoing Brexit debacle, but on this it's all the publics fault for not understanding or having the sense to look at the gov.uk site. And of course not everyone has access to the internet. My friend Marian who is 88 years old and can't be bothered with the whole computer world. What about them Mr. Gov.UK?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 23, 2020, 12:08:15 PM
I won't engage with you further on this thread as you just want to pick arguments with people who don't have your god-like propensity to understand this shambles of a governments messaging.
Except Jeremy P clearly does not understand the rules by implying that live choir rehearsals involving more than 6 people were obviously banned under the rule of 6 (charmingly What do you mean? It says seven people cannot gather together. It means your choir is screwed.") when the government had clarified just last week quite the reverse - that organised choir rehearsals with more than 6 people were allowed provided the choir committee had performed risk assessment, put mitigations in place etc.

We await any further clarification from the DCMS as to whether this position has changed in light of yesterday's announcement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 23, 2020, 08:27:17 PM
I fear that a bigger lockdown will happen.


https://news.stv.tv/west-central/two-significant-coronavirus-clusters-at-university-of-glasgow?top&amp&__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 23, 2020, 08:57:32 PM

Now that could have been trouble.

https://news.sky.com/story/greggs-factory-staff-test-positive-for-coronavirus-but-sausage-roll-supplies-unaffected-12079757
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 24, 2020, 10:51:15 AM
Others were sacked or resigned for lesser transgressions and they weren't the architect of the rules.
Yes, get over it.

Quote
What you are missing is the corrosive effect this had,
It's only corrosive because people let it be corrosive. It was months ago. Get over it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 24, 2020, 10:51:33 AM
I fear this is Nicola pushing for a complete shutdown of pubs and restaurants again, perhaps only for a specific period as in thd circuit break idea but I can see it leading to more closures, and I'm unconvinced that this is likely to work.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-54274055
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 24, 2020, 10:53:41 AM
Yes, get over it.
It's only corrosive because people let it be corrosive. It was months ago. Get over it.
Yeah, people being lied to is only corrosive because they are bothered about being lied to, they just need to get over it. The people who lie have no responsibility for the effects of their lies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 24, 2020, 11:08:46 AM
Yes I did. Why the badgering tone? Why must you start an argument in an empty room?
You do not look at the situation as it is but as you think it ought to be. The government web site is useless because it's always crashing, for example. Except, no, that's bullshit. Criticise the government for the mistakes it actually makes, not the ones that only exist in your head.

Sometimes I think people here are enjoying watching Boris and his merry men floundering about.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 24, 2020, 11:11:12 AM
Yeah, people being lied to is only corrosive because they are bothered about being lied to, they just need to get over it. The people who lie have no responsibility for the effects of their lies.

Yes we were lied to. We're all very sorry about that but it is going to make absolutely fuck all difference to anything that happens before the next general election.

Get over it. There are more pressing issues than Cummings' relatively minor breach of the lockdown rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 24, 2020, 11:21:39 AM
Yes we were lied to. We're all very sorry about that but it is going to make absolutely fuck all difference to anything that happens before the next general election.

Get over it. There are more pressing issues than Cummings' relatively minor breach of the lockdown rules.
If you don't think trust should be affected by lying, ypu are a fool.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 24, 2020, 11:22:30 AM
You do not look at the situation as it is but as you think it ought to be. The government web site is useless because it's always crashing, for example. Except, no, that's bullshit. Criticise the government for the mistakes it actually makes, not the ones that only exist in your head.

Sometimes I think people here are enjoying watching Boris and his merry men floundering about.
Just not willing to make excuses for them as you are.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 24, 2020, 11:28:56 AM
You do not look at the situation as it is but as you think it ought to be.
But you cannot simply discount the track record of the government in dealing with this. We are 6 months on from the original lock down (and about 8 months from a recognition that we had a major global problem), yet our testing system remains in chaos, we have literally only just launched an app (and we really don't know whether it work and even if it does in theory it is useless unless people can get tested and get results quickly). We have messaging that is all over the place and changing so regularly that it becomes difficult to understand and saps confidence.

Criticise the government for the mistakes it actually makes, not the ones that only exist in your head.
That's exactly what I am doing.

You on the other seems to be exonerating the government of any responsibility for how we got to this stage with your nonsense claim that the only relevant point is the situation as it is rather than as it should have been had we had competent leadership. You also disprove your own claim that the rules are simple by demonstrating that you yourself simply don't understand the rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on September 24, 2020, 03:43:59 PM
It is no good entirely exonerating or entirely blaming the Government. It is I suppose possible that others, had they been elected, might just have made a few different, or worse, mistakes and we'll never know, but to heap blame for seemingly every dot and comma on the Government is simply unfair.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 24, 2020, 03:49:34 PM
It is no good entirely exonerating or entirely blaming the Government. It is I suppose possible that others, had they been elected, might just have made a few different, or worse, mistakes and we'll never know, but to heap blame for seemingly every dot and comma on the Government is simply unfair.
Can you point out what criticisms you think are unfair and why?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 24, 2020, 03:58:28 PM
I think that over the time of Covid 19, the Scottish govt has in general managed communication better than the UK Govt but beyond that I don't see a lot of difference in terms of actual policies and effects. There was the spoof article below in the Mash but it just illustrates how minor the actual difference in approach has been. The main one was the idiocy of encouraging people back to offices in England.


https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/amazing-man-can-see-week-into-englands-future-by-watching-scottish-news-20200826199827
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 24, 2020, 04:08:38 PM
It is no good entirely exonerating or entirely blaming the Government. It is I suppose possible that others, had they been elected, might just have made a few different, or worse, mistakes and we'll never know, but to heap blame for seemingly every dot and comma on the Government is simply unfair.

Susan, with all due respect it's not every dot and comma. It's the big stuff like PPE, like discharging people back into care homes thus seeding the disease in a vulnerable population, it's being clear on your messaging, it's not pretending to be the Superman of capitalism, it's getting a decent test, track and trace operation up to speed. These are not dots and commas. These are the essentials. If they were getting these right, then I personally, probably would not be so annoyed that a government advisor drove to Barnard Castle to test his eyesight, but when they get the big things wrong the little things then start to really irritate.

I get mightily tired of some posters thinking that I am somehow quibbling over minor issues, I'm not. It's the big stuff the government got wrong and on current form I'm not seeing a huge improvement.

People died who need not have done. That is down, in part, to our government. Sorry/not sorry if that doesn't fit in with some people's world view.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 24, 2020, 04:10:57 PM
It is no good entirely exonerating or entirely blaming the Government. It is I suppose possible that others, had they been elected, might just have made a few different, or worse, mistakes and we'll never know, but to heap blame for seemingly every dot and comma on the Government is simply unfair.
I'm not doing that.

However I think Jeremy tends to the extreme of exoneration. He seems to dismiss anything that has happened over the past few months and only wants to consider the situation now and going forward. Thinking that we should not be in the position we are now (e.g. on testing, track & trace, app etc etc) and that the reason we are in the current position is down to poor government decisions is, to my mind, perfectly reasonable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 24, 2020, 04:38:04 PM
Susan, with all due respect it's not every dot and comma. It's the big stuff like PPE, like discharging people back into care homes thus seeding the disease in a vulnerable population, it's being clear on your messaging, it's not pretending to be the Superman of capitalism, it's getting a decent test, track and trace operation up to speed. These are not dots and commas. These are the essentials. If they were getting these right, then I personally, probably would not be so annoyed that a government advisor drove to Barnard Castle to test his eyesight, but when they get the big things wrong the little things then start to really irritate.

I get mightily tired of some posters thinking that I am somehow quibbling over minor issues, I'm not. It's the big stuff the government got wrong and on current form I'm not seeing a huge improvement.

People died who need not have done. That is down, in part, to our government. Sorry/not sorry if that doesn't fit in with some people's world view.
I agree

And I'll freely accept that there were some things that frankly any UK government would have struggled with - for example testing capacity back in March, because we simply didn't have anything in place historically (unlike some countries) and you can't simply conjure up test facilities from nothing in days.

But most of the issues I'm talking about were both predictable and predicted with sufficient time for the government to make the necessary changes and put things in place. Yet time and again they've ignored sensible expert advice and taken their own path, as if you win this not by getting things right (even if that is exactly the same as other countries), but by creating a bespoke UK solution.

Examples - PPE, e.g ventilators - rather than just buy existing designs, increase manufacturing capacity the UK felt the need to have a competition for completely new and untested designs.
Track and Trace app - other countries had this ages ago using the power of google/apple etc, but we refused to simply take the technology and use it in the UK - we had to have our own.
Testing - early on the government wouldn't trust and wouldn't use experts and facilities in universities - rather they had to set up their own mega- facilities (which took months) and guess what - they couldn't procure the equipment or consumables, so long after we'd offered to help they came begging to borrow our equipment, consumables and people ... but they had to go and work in Milton Keynes (in our case, despite our labs being in London).
Exam grades - for months the government were being told that the algorithm and adjustments would disadvantage kids own the poorest areas, but they didn't listen and when what was predicted happened they seemed bemused and ended up in knee jerk U turns (which themselves created huge problems and extra work for schools and universities).

Just a few examples, I'm afraid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on September 24, 2020, 05:56:30 PM
My thanks for above responses. Do any of you have reliable evidence and information that another set of people in the UK Government would have made far fewer mistakes?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 24, 2020, 05:59:16 PM
My thanks for above responses. Do any of you have reliable evidence and information that another set of people in the UK Government would have made far fewer mistakes?
Germany
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 24, 2020, 06:30:58 PM
My thanks for above responses. Do any of you have reliable evidence and information that another set of people in the UK Government would have made far fewer mistakes?

Yes. I think if Mrs May had still been PM the outcome would have been different (that is better). She is not wedded to the ideals of libertarianism in the same way that Johnson is. His leanings in that direction have really not helped in dealing with this pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on September 24, 2020, 07:06:53 PM
My thanks for above responses. Do any of you have reliable evidence and information that another set of people in the UK Government would have made far fewer mistakes?

A government sans Tories comes to mind, and perhaps with more competence and not lead by a narcissistic liar.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 24, 2020, 07:08:56 PM
A government sans Tories comes to mind, and perhaps with more competence and not lead by a narcissistic liar.
or with less corruption - see Dido Harding
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 24, 2020, 07:51:40 PM
or with less corruption - see Dido Harding
Or the other contracts given to Tory donors or supporter to provide PPE (ventilators and masks) that they had no prior experience in manufacturing/supplying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 24, 2020, 10:35:45 PM
But apart from the incompetence, the lying, the hypocrisy and the corruption, what have the Tories ever fucked up about Covid?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 25, 2020, 09:08:18 AM
Students told not to go to pubs in Scotland.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-54285720
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 25, 2020, 09:12:32 AM
In general with some specific criticisms, I think the UK govt has done ok as regards the employment support. There's going to be a lot of areas though where people can't bring staff back for 30% of the time though. Given the levels of borrowing, it may be difficult to do much more.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54282815
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 25, 2020, 10:56:41 AM
In general with some specific criticisms, I think the UK govt has done ok as regards the employment support.
I agree - I think the furlough scheme was really good - straight forward and, critically, it worked - employers got the money quickly and simply.

There's going to be a lot of areas though where people can't bring staff back for 30% of the time though.
True - I think the scheme just announced might not work well in terms of protecting jobs. On the radio the point was raised about the dilemma for an employer with reduced work - do you keep one employee on full time and make another redundant, or do you drop both to part time and take advantage of the government scheme. The problem is that that former is likely to cost the employer less and if that is the case many companies, through necessity, will make employees redundant rather than using the scheme.

Given the levels of borrowing, it may be difficult to do much more.
I think there is additional scope given that the cost of borrowing at the moment is historically low. I think the government knows this and recognises that more may need to be put in place - certainly if we go back to a more significant lock-down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 25, 2020, 12:35:59 PM
So in the latest in a long catalogues of failures the brand new app won't work on older smart phones.

I downloaded it yesterday and was OK, but had to upgrade my system software. But older phones won't be able to use the most recent system software and therefore won't be able to work with the app. :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 25, 2020, 12:48:46 PM
So in the latest in a long catalogues of failures the brand new app won't work on older smart phones.

I downloaded it yesterday and was OK, but had to upgrade my system software. But older phones won't be able to use the most recent system software and therefore won't be able to work with the app. :o

Not the governments fault in this case, this applies to any country using the Apple/Google platform. This was pointed out by somebody on TV yesterday, Scottish health chappie.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 25, 2020, 04:58:46 PM
Had a couple of restaurants send me emails that they are restarting their set meals that need some cooking at home again. They are anticipating both a drop off in trade and a lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 25, 2020, 06:16:50 PM
Happy to wear mask, happy to be currently in quarantine for specific reasons, but we know much more about covid and we can see the effects of lockdown. We are over reacting and we are screwing up people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 25, 2020, 10:42:22 PM
We are over reacting and we are screwing up people.
Really?

Have you looked at the data - I think we haven't locked down hard enough nationwide. I think the rule of 6 and closing pubs a bit early isn't going to make meaningful impact on the exponential rise in cases, and now with a bit of a lag, hospitalisations and a little further back again, deaths following the trend of cases.

That said we will soon see all the local lock downs join up in a manner that meaning the whole of the UK will be in greater lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on September 26, 2020, 03:15:45 PM
Happy to wear mask, happy to be currently in quarantine for specific reasons, but we know much more about covid and we can see the effects of lockdown. We are over reacting and we are screwing up people.

The government were forced into the first lockdown due to lack of preparedness for a pandemic. They did not take the opportunity, the time granted by the lockdown,  or just did not manage, to put in place the systems needed to manage infection when distancing measures could be eased; hence they are now being forced into a mish mash of other measures, some of them being quite useless as well as damaging.

The talk of a two week circuit-break shows they still do not understand the point of quarantining. 

This article by Sally Davies, on preparedness for coming pandemics, is good:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/26/next-pandemic-coronavirus-prepare
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 26, 2020, 04:31:47 PM
The government were forced into the first lockdown due to lack of preparedness for a pandemic. They did not take the opportunity, the time granted by the lockdown,  or just did not manage, to put in place the systems needed to manage infection when distancing measures could be eased; hence they are now being forced into a mish mash of other measures, some of them being quite useless as well as damaging.

The talk of a two week circuit-break shows they still do not understand the point of quarantining. 

This article by Sally Davies, on preparedness for coming pandemics, is good:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/26/next-pandemic-coronavirus-prepare
I agree with most of that but it doesn't impact on my belief that the current piecemeal lockdowns are an overreaction.  The impacts and costs are not just financial, and in not learning to live with Covid we simply continue to ignore those costs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 26, 2020, 04:51:00 PM
A story on a specific impact of Covid on one town


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-54233889?intlink_from_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fscotland%2Fglasgow_and_west&link_location=live-reporting-story&fbclid=IwAR0rvNVgODX5rcNNCU8tZy1kYKuhjQS-Cgj7fgwoRKFFYVjVrmbgfN1IAjY
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 26, 2020, 10:19:17 PM
I agree with most of that but it doesn't impact on my belief that the current piecemeal lockdowns are an overreaction.  The impacts and costs are not just financial, and in not learning to live with Covid we simply continue to ignore those costs.
What does 'learning to live with with Covid' mean in your view NS.

To me that is exactly what we are doing at the moment - flexing restrictions to keep the virus from running completely out of control, overwhelming the ability of the health service to cope and leading to hundreds of thousands of deaths. We are not getting it right all the time, and given that we are in a new exponential growth phase those restrictions need to be pretty stringent - in my view more so than they are at the moment, certainly at national level.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on September 27, 2020, 08:47:05 AM



Learning to live with Covid19 is not quite the same as living with flu or measles or dengue.  These infections are nowhere as infectious or as deadly as Covid19.

If a person gets flu or measles, the person is relatively isolated, lies in bed for a week or 10 days and gets well again. Everyone else else goes about their business.

But with Covid it is different. Everyone else could be infected and could face potentially life threatening situations.

Even with vaccines, unless some form of an effective treatment and medication is found to reduce the intensity of covid...'living with it' is going to be very difficult.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 28, 2020, 10:13:23 AM
In it together....


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/parliament-s-bars-exempt-from-10pm-coronavirus-curfew-wb6g6bbgp
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 28, 2020, 11:07:44 AM


Learning to live with Covid19 is not quite the same as living with flu or measles or dengue.  These infections are nowhere as infectious or as deadly as Covid19.

Measles is far more infectious than COVID19. It's R0 is somewhere between 12 and 18 apparently. It's also pretty lethal in some places, for example it kills a lot more people in Africa than ebola. If everybody in the UK lost their immunity, measles would instantly sweep across the country and probably kill 30 - 60 thousand people.

Quote
If a person gets flu or measles, the person is relatively isolated, lies in bed for a week or 10 days and gets well again. Everyone else else goes about their business.
Everybody doesn't get well again. If we allowed it to, measles would kill one person in about two thousand patients in the UK. Flu does kill between 10 and 30 thousand people each year in the UK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 01, 2020, 06:59:02 PM
Ffs!


https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/snp-mp-margaret-ferrier-apologises-after-ignoring-coronavirus-rules-and-travelling-parliament-2990115
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 01, 2020, 07:13:03 PM
Ffs!


https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/snp-mp-margaret-ferrier-apologises-after-ignoring-coronavirus-rules-and-travelling-parliament-2990115
Apparently the SNP have suspended her - points.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 01, 2020, 08:04:38 PM
Ffs!


https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/snp-mp-margaret-ferrier-apologises-after-ignoring-coronavirus-rules-and-travelling-parliament-2990115

Also Boris's Dad (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54369002) and Jeremy Corbyn (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-rule-six-dinner-party-coronavirus-labour-boris-johnson-b735766.html).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 01, 2020, 08:22:00 PM
Also Boris's Dad (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54369002) and Jeremy Corbyn (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-rule-six-dinner-party-coronavirus-labour-boris-johnson-b735766.html).
Corbyn should be suspended. Elder Johnson should be fined but it isn't the same.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 01, 2020, 08:35:17 PM
Corbyn should be suspended. Elder Johnson should be fined but it isn't the same.

No, I didn't mean to imply I thought they were as serious as standing up and giving a speech in the H of C when you believe you have COVID19, but they still both broke the rules even though they should have known better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 01, 2020, 08:44:01 PM
No, I didn't mean to imply I thought they were as serious as standing up and giving a speech in the H of C when you believe you have COVID19, but they still both broke the rules even though they should have known better.
Corbyn should be suspended by the Labour Party because they have supported the decisions on 'lockdown'. It isn't just a matter of personal hypocrisy. Stanley Johnson isn't an MP so whatever happens is different.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 02, 2020, 07:58:06 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-54381848

This qualifies for three threads. I’ll post it here for now.

Trump has tested positive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 02, 2020, 11:16:00 AM
Nicola urges Ferrier to resign. Good.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54383281
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 02, 2020, 11:45:08 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-54381848

This qualifies for three threads. I’ll post it here for now.

Trump has tested positive.
Local newspaper the Ayr Advertiser's take

https://www.ayradvertiser.com/news/18765053.turnberry-hotelier-president-trump-tests-positive-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR0L62LPY2zE3ln9mO9y9AmtgXMqJpA8JvkO9nNI80l37FvuaaH_TGkESqU
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 02, 2020, 02:00:28 PM
It's all sorted I've sent a bottle of bleach by courier.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on October 02, 2020, 02:41:31 PM
It's all sorted I've sent a bottle of bleach by courier.
:) Nice one!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 02, 2020, 04:14:27 PM
Seen elsewhere:

*RBG has just won her first oral argument with God!*
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 02, 2020, 10:36:29 PM
Newsflash: Trump reportedly moved to a medical facility.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on October 02, 2020, 10:40:25 PM
Newsflash: Trump reportedly moved to a medical facility.
He's going to have a wisdom tooth put in.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 02, 2020, 10:44:28 PM
He's going to have a wisdom tooth put in.

Badum tish  ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 04, 2020, 11:04:41 AM
Cineworld closing its cinemas 'temporarily'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54407213?at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_campaign=64&at_custom2=twitter&at_medium=custom7&at_custom4=645DF140-0619-11EB-9DE3-609B4744363C
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on October 04, 2020, 03:01:28 PM
Bars over here to close early again. Probably the rght move. Over the whole country they have to close at 12pm but in the worst affected areas, where I live, 10pm . Now it's recommended that masks are used in all public places. I was exposed to the virus recently but luckily never got any symptoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on October 04, 2020, 05:23:25 PM


Learning to live with Covid19 is not quite the same as living with flu or measles or dengue.  These infections are nowhere as infectious or as deadly as Covid19.

If a person gets flu or measles, the person is relatively isolated, lies in bed for a week or 10 days and gets well again. Everyone else else goes about their business.

But with Covid it is different. Everyone else could be infected and could face potentially life threatening situations.

Even with vaccines, unless some form of an effective treatment and medication is found to reduce the intensity of covid...'living with it' is going to be very difficult.

I totally agree with you on this Sriram, trouble is there's a lot of brain dead walking around out there.

I'll take it as a given it's the same in all countries.

Regards, ippy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 05, 2020, 04:02:46 AM

So much of the news makes it difficult to work out which one of 3 pinned threads to place it on. But anyway arse! I think Margaret Ferrier should stand down as MP as do many Tories - I will wait for them to suggest Trump should rescind standing..
................

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-didnt-disclose-first-positive-covid-19-test-while-awaiting-a-second-test-on-thursday-11601844813?fbclid=IwAR1zkDsnL8uqcCi7-vfr3BoDCqovqcxA7SgF9Q5HJHEyVi-Y3_ovSSGfnSc
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 05, 2020, 07:50:19 AM
Serco Test and Trace


https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-nearly-16000-new-covid-19-cases-added-to-total-after-technical-glitch-12090306
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 05, 2020, 09:42:26 AM
Serco Test and Trace


https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-nearly-16000-new-covid-19-cases-added-to-total-after-technical-glitch-12090306

Ha ha. Yes, I saw that. Also

https://twitter.com/MichaelTakeMP/status/1313018963404693506

Quote from: Sir Michael Take CBE
I see leftist cynics wanting to sack #DidoHarding over the technical glitch concerning the 16,000 #Covid19 cases that went missing & could not be traced.
The #SercoTestAndTrace system is still in its infancy. Glitches will happen.
Moaning doesn’t help in the battle against Covid!

I'm not so much bothered about the 16,000 tests that weren't added on to the total as soon as they could be (which is just a glitch), but I am concerned that the Test and Trace system is still in its "infancy" or, more correctly, that this MP thinks it is acceptable that the Test and Trace system is still in its infancy, seven months after the pandemic started.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 05, 2020, 10:12:56 AM
Quote
I'm not so much bothered about the 16,000 tests that weren't added on to the total as soon as they could be (which is just a glitch), but I am concerned that the Test and Trace system is still in its "infancy" or, more correctly, that this MP thinks it is acceptable that the Test and Trace system is still in its infancy, seven months after the pandemic started.

I agree the figure being added on doesn't matter that much and would be a glitch if figures were the only thing affected, but surely the fact that the tracing & tracking was delayed in these 16,000 cases is hugely important.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on October 05, 2020, 10:52:31 AM
What does 'learning to live with with Covid' mean in your view NS.

To me that is exactly what we are doing at the moment - flexing restrictions to keep the virus from running completely out of control, overwhelming the ability of the health service to cope and leading to hundreds of thousands of deaths. We are not getting it right all the time, and given that we are in a new exponential growth phase those restrictions need to be pretty stringent - in my view more so than they are at the moment, certainly at national level.

I've asked this many times on another forum I go on and rarely get an answer so would be interested in hear views on here. I think, as you say, it isn't much different than we are currently doing but with more and better testing and treatments we could go back to some greater normality over time but not yet and not for sometime. We have to continue to improve on social distancing measurers everywhere, technology to help (auto doors, UVC air purifiers, better masks, humidifiers etc,) carry on working from home, avoid potential superspreader events and get used to it. The current vaccines under development are unlikely to give long lasting sterilising immunity and giving it to everyone will be impossible so the virus is likely to be around in circulation for a long time and we have to continue to manage it and manage it better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 05, 2020, 11:02:28 AM
I agree the figure being added on doesn't matter that much and would be a glitch if figures were the only thing affected, but surely the fact that the tracing & tracking was delayed in these 16,000 cases is hugely important.

Yesterday I developed a slight cough and I measured my temperature this morning and it appeared to be slightly raised, although I don't really trust the thermometer I used. So I booked myself into a test centre this morning and had a COVID19 test. I will get the results hopefully within 48 hours "but it could take up to five days". Frankly, it's not acceptable if it takes 48 hours, never mind five days. There are serious problems with the test and trace system but, given the scale of the operation, you'd expect them when the service is in its infancy. That would include temporarily losing 16,000 results.

It is not acceptable that the service is still in its infancy. And it's not acceptable to use "it's in its infancy" as an excuse for a screw up.

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 05, 2020, 11:06:37 AM
Yesterday I developed a slight cough and I measured my temperature this morning and it appeared to be slightly raised, although I don't really trust the thermometer I used. So I booked myself into a test centre this morning and had a COVID19 test. I will get the results hopefully within 48 hours "but it could take up to five days". Frankly, it's not acceptable if it takes 48 hours, never mind five days. There are serious problems with the test and trace system but, given the scale of the operation, you'd expect them when the service is in its infancy. That would include temporarily losing 16,000 results.

It is not acceptable that the service is still in its infancy. And it's not acceptable to use "it's in its infancy" as an excuse for a screw up.

Agree. But more importantly I hope you are ok and get your result quickly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 05, 2020, 11:21:12 AM
Agree. But more importantly I hope you are ok and get your result quickly.
I'm sure I'm fine, but it's better safe than sorry.

I'm not at all frightened of it being COVID19. If I get it, I get it and I'll probably survive the experience. The reason I'm angry is that my life has to be put on hold until they get me my result and it's a pain in the arse. I can't ignore it (although I did consider ignoring it) because, if it is COVID19, people may catch it off me and people may die because of me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 05, 2020, 11:32:57 AM
More apparent stupidity. Lana Del Rey sports a fishnet face mask (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-54416856).

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 05, 2020, 11:38:40 AM
More apparent stupidity. Lana Del Rey sports a fishnet face mask (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-54416856).

Celebrity is no guarantee of intelligence, as if we needed proof.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ippy on October 05, 2020, 12:32:02 PM
Yesterday I developed a slight cough and I measured my temperature this morning and it appeared to be slightly raised, although I don't really trust the thermometer I used. So I booked myself into a test centre this morning and had a COVID19 test. I will get the results hopefully within 48 hours "but it could take up to five days". Frankly, it's not acceptable if it takes 48 hours, never mind five days. There are serious problems with the test and trace system but, given the scale of the operation, you'd expect them when the service is in its infancy. That would include temporarily losing 16,000 results.

It is not acceptable that the service is still in its infancy. And it's not acceptable to use "it's in its infancy" as an excuse for a screw up.

I heard that after a while there were people around in Africa that were immune to HIV, I suppose something similar would happen without doing anything with this virus but in the mean time we can only do our best.

I'm sure no government wants to get it wrong, it's not as though any government would be gaining anything by making mistakes.

We can all sit on our arses and point fingers that's easy, I try to social distance and wear a mask when appropriate plenty don't, who's to say this is the way and be 100% right, even I can't give you a 100% answer to this depressing Virol problem we have at the moment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on October 05, 2020, 01:52:48 PM
I heard that after a while there were people around in Africa that were immune to HIV, I suppose something similar would happen without doing anything with this virus but in the mean time we can only do our best.

I'm sure no government wants to get it wrong, it's not as though any government would be gaining anything by making mistakes.

We can all sit on our arses and point fingers that's easy, I try to social distance and wear a mask when appropriate plenty don't, who's to say this is the way and be 100% right, even I can't give you a 100% answer to this depressing Virol problem we have at the moment.

Some people may be genetically immune or have a tendency to be asymptomatic or only have mild symptoms but the former is probably very low in numbers if any. People develop immunity from exposure to pathogens which generate antibodies and specific T and B cells which recognise the pathogen if exposed again. How long any of these things last and what protection they give is unknown, hence the issues with going down the herd immunity route. This also means that significant numbers of vulnerable people, unless totally isolated, would catch the virus and die. Herd immunity will take a long time to develop naturally and may be fragile if the immunity doesn't last long. It seems most likely that, even with a vaccine of the type currently under testing, that this virus will remain in circulation with people being reinfected but only having mild symptoms but for some people (who cannot be vaccinated for example or for whom the vaccine isn't effective) they will remain vulnerable to serious symptoms and death, especially if the protection given by the vaccine is insufficient to prevent viral shedding of those reinfected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on October 05, 2020, 01:56:03 PM
What still puzzles me is that there is, apparently, a test which can be done and result achieved within 10 minutes. If such a fkit is indeed available - a friend has told he she has heard of it mentioned in news programmes several times - then perhaps it should be used.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on October 05, 2020, 02:08:01 PM
What still puzzles me is that there is, apparently, a test which can be done and result achieved within 10 minutes. If such a fkit is indeed available - a friend has told he she has heard of it mentioned in news programmes several times - then perhaps it should be used.

There are various tests but they are not all as accurate as others. I think the rapid test such as the one they use in Italy is only 80% accurate. We are testing and trialing various different tests and think we may have better ones soon but you never know, we have been promised a lot but it's not always been delivered.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on October 05, 2020, 02:28:34 PM
Some people may be genetically immune or have a tendency to be asymptomatic or only have mild symptoms but the former is probably very low in numbers if any.
I have read an expert estimate of natural immunity as being between 35% and 50%.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 05, 2020, 03:00:40 PM
Boris tells us all to go to the cinema....


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-54387856?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 05, 2020, 03:13:23 PM
Meanwhile much speculation that Scotland will go back into a 'circuit breaking' lockdown for 2 weeks to be announced tomorrow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on October 05, 2020, 03:57:40 PM
I have read an expert estimate of natural immunity as being between 35% and 50%.

There is speculation that there could be cross immunity at that level due to previous exposure to other coronaviruses such as some types of the common cold but it is speculation, and if it relies on T Cell response isn't necessarily a help regarding achieving herd immunity because T Cells usually take days or weeks to generate an immune response to infection during which time the individual is likely to still be able to shed virus and pass it on to others. Do you have a link to what you read at all?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on October 05, 2020, 04:30:46 PM
There is speculation that there could be cross immunity at that level due to previous exposure to other coronaviruses such as some types of the common cold but it is speculation, and if it relies on T Cell response isn't necessarily a help regarding achieving herd immunity because T Cells usually take days or weeks to generate an immune response to infection during which time the individual is likely to still be able to shed virus and pass it on to others. Do you have a link to what you read at all?
No - 'fraid not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 05, 2020, 04:56:47 PM
So Test and trace on an excel spreadsheet. World beating anybody?

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/shock-and-despair-follow-revelations-that-world-beating-test-and-trace-system-is-being-run-on-excel/05/10/?

I wish I was making this fucking stuff up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on October 05, 2020, 05:13:08 PM
No - 'fraid not.

Ok. I think it was a reference to protective T cells due to exposure to other coronaviruses but although there is a little evidence for this it is far from being certain and there are issues with relying on T Cells anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on October 05, 2020, 05:14:03 PM
So Test and trace on an excel spreadsheet. World beating anybody?

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/shock-and-despair-follow-revelations-that-world-beating-test-and-trace-system-is-being-run-on-excel/05/10/?

I wish I was making this fucking stuff up.

Incredible isn't it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 05, 2020, 06:18:26 PM
Interesting article


https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 05, 2020, 06:30:10 PM
Incredible isn't it.
I’m afraid it isn’t. This kind of screw up is all too common.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 06, 2020, 12:28:40 PM
Hmmm...I think this could be phrased better


https://www.itv.com/news/2020-10-06/rishi-sunak-suggests-musicians-and-others-in-arts-should-retrain-and-find-other-jobs
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on October 06, 2020, 01:05:11 PM
Corona in Excel sheets.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on October 06, 2020, 01:57:40 PM
Corona in Excel sheets.

Did you forget a few words there?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 06, 2020, 02:05:46 PM
Corona in Excel sheets.
I'm not at all surprised. This sort of thing happens all the time. You're told you have to set some system up in a short time frame, so you hack something together using Excel. You promise yourself that you will review that decision later when you have got time, but, of course that time never arrives. Then one day you hit Excel's limits and everything falls apart in spectacular fashion. Then you hack together a work around that makes the whole thing even more creaky (which, from what I've heard is what they've done). Rinse and repeat.

There are three ways to fix this:

1. Use tools appropriate to the job. That means a database.

2. Upgrade hardware and software so you can use a modern version of Excel (which can deal with a million rows of data)

3. Split the Excel files into smaller batches - the chosen solution.

I can understand why they haven't immediately taken option 1 - they don't have time. I can't understand why they haven't taken option 2 unless it's a bureaucracy thing: they can't get the hardware and software in time, even though you or I might just go to a shop and buy a computer and then get Excel online.

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 06, 2020, 02:05:53 PM
Did you forget a few words there?
I think B McB is using it to echo Gloria in Excelsis
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 06, 2020, 02:08:08 PM
Hmmm...I think this could be phrased better


https://www.itv.com/news/2020-10-06/rishi-sunak-suggests-musicians-and-others-in-arts-should-retrain-and-find-other-jobs

What in particular should have been phrased better? The chancellor's comments or the ITV story? If the latter, they seem to have realised that:

Quote
UPDATE: This article has changed to reflect that the Chancellor's comments were about employment generally and not specifically about the music or arts sector.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 06, 2020, 02:08:19 PM
I'm not at all surprised. This sort of thing happens all the time. You're told you have to set some system up in a short time frame, so you hack something together using Excel. You promise yourself that you will review that decision later when you have got time, but, of course that time never arrives. Then one day you hit Excel's limits and everything falls apart in spectacular fashion. Then you hack together a work around that makes the whole thing even more creaky (which, from what I've heard is what they've done). Rinse and repeat.

There are three ways to fix this:

1. Use tools appropriate to the job. That means a database.

2. Upgrade hardware and software so you can use a modern version of Excel (which can deal with a million rows of data)

3. Split the Excel files into smaller batches - the chosen solution.

I can understand why they haven't immediately taken option 1 - they don't have time. I can't understand why they haven't taken option 2 unless it's a bureaucracy thing: they can't get the hardware and software in time, even though you or I might just go to a shop and buy a computer and then get Excel online.
I have seen some reports that it was because they used columns as opposed to rows to store the cases that they ran out. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 06, 2020, 02:11:51 PM
I have seen some reports that it was because they used columns as opposed to rows to store the cases that they ran out.

Yes, I dismissed those stories because it would be stupid to do it that way. However, the size limits on modern versions of Excel are more credible (16 thousand as opposed to one million).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on October 06, 2020, 02:32:22 PM
I think B McB is using it to echo Gloria in Excelsis

Quite possibly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 06, 2020, 02:53:36 PM
What in particular should have been phrased better? The chancellor's comments or the ITV story? If the latter, they seem to have realised that:
Both, I would suggest. Sunak's phrasing both set up the misread and also looks as if it's merely repetition rather than an answer to the specific issue and the question asked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on October 06, 2020, 03:48:24 PM
Did you forget a few words there?
Pun on "Hosanna in excelsis".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on October 06, 2020, 07:32:48 PM
Pun on "Hosanna in excelsis".

I see it now (Doh!). Very good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 07, 2020, 03:18:26 PM
Bye bye pubs and restaurants again for those of us in the Central Belt

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54449573
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 07, 2020, 09:24:38 PM
And all fine


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54446285
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 08, 2020, 11:07:45 AM
The Trump triumvirate of threads continues.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-54455040
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 08, 2020, 11:52:53 AM
The Trump triumvirate of threads continues.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-54455040

It's very unfortunate for the American people that Trump's COVID19 seems not to have been very serious. I don't mean in terms of wanting him to die - which I don't - but he's now pushing the narrative that it isn't serious at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 08, 2020, 12:05:39 PM
It's very unfortunate for the American people that Trump's COVID19 seems not to have been very serious. I don't mean in terms of wanting him to die - which I don't - but he's now pushing the narrative that it isn't serious at all.
Yep, agree. And that he then wants to punt a non FDA approved treatment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 08, 2020, 05:07:05 PM
Teachers being told not to use the  Serco app?


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54465356
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 08, 2020, 06:26:27 PM
Teachers being told not to use the  Serco app?


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54465356

Disgraceful

“ One head teacher told his colleagues there was a danger a staff member could receive an alert relating to their external activities, which would then trigger more alerts affecting the school”

Good point. If you contract coronavirus outside of the workplace, you won’t infect anybody in your workplace. /sarcasm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 09, 2020, 09:20:09 AM
So the Scottish govt is going to allow all cafes to remain open - with licensed ones not allowed to sell drink
 The problem is that there is no such there as a licensed cafe, just licensed premises so will be interesting as to how they can define it.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54466992
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 09, 2020, 09:58:45 AM
So the Scottish govt is going to allow all cafes to remain open - with licensed ones not allowed to sell drink
 The problem is that there is no such there as a licensed cafe, just licensed premises so will be interesting as to how they can define it.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54466992

Why is it a problem? It seems simple enough to me: cafés can remain open as long as they don't serve alcohol.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 09, 2020, 10:41:07 AM
So the Scottish govt is going to allow all cafes to remain open - with licensed ones not allowed to sell drink
 The problem is that there is no such there as a licensed cafe, just licensed premises so will be interesting as to how they can define it.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54466992
Are planning use classes very different in Scotland?

Certainly in England a cafe is a different use class than a bar or pub. A cafe is able to apply for a licence to serve alcohol, but that does not mean it ceases to be a cafe - rather it becomes a licensed cafe rather than an unlicensed cafe.

Sure you can argue that there are cafes that look like bars, and bars that look like cafes, but the distinction will be their planning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 09, 2020, 10:49:50 AM
Why is it a problem? It seems simple enough to me: cafés can remain open as long as they don't serve alcohol.
Nothing on  the licence states that they are cafes, and there is no official definition of a cafe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 09, 2020, 11:01:15 AM

This is worrying on the economy

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54474490
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 09, 2020, 11:03:11 AM
Are planning use classes very different in Scotland?

Certainly in England a cafe is a different use class than a bar or pub. A cafe is able to apply for a licence to serve alcohol, but that does not mean it ceases to be a cafe - rather it becomes a licensed cafe rather than an unlicensed cafe.

Sure you can argue that there are cafes that look like bars, and bars that look like cafes, but the distinction will be their planning.
The confusion appears to be with restaurants not bars. Oddly enough two places  that I frequent have Cafe in their name but neither is a cafe
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 09, 2020, 11:40:56 AM
The confusion appears to be with restaurants not bars. Oddly enough two places  that I frequent have Cafe in their name but neither is a cafe
Not sure I understand the issue - are there different rules applying to cafes and restaurants?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 09, 2020, 11:56:36 AM
Not sure I understand the issue - are there different rules applying to cafes and restaurants?
Yes. In the Central Belt, restaurants are to shut but  cafes can open.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SweetPea on October 09, 2020, 12:15:08 PM
There are many scientists and medical experts that are speaking-up now about different ways to combat the pandemic but you will not find them on such media as the BBC, so you have to look elsewhere. This is worth a listen. Plus the interviewer is excellent - never biased and always asks relevant questions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rz_Z7Gf1aRE&t=816s
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 09, 2020, 12:29:59 PM
So Nicola Sturgeon has covered the definition of cafe  in the briefing and it seems to be that it's a place serving light snacks that doesn't make significant amounts from sales of alcohol, and that she trusts business owners to know the difference. I know of at least one place nearby that is called a cafe that I wouldn't be sure that applies to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 09, 2020, 12:46:24 PM
There are many scientists and medical experts that are speaking-up now about different ways to combat the pandemic but you will not find them on such media as the BBC, so you have to look elsewhere. This is worth a listen. Plus the interviewer is excellent - never biased and always asks relevant questions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rz_Z7Gf1aRE&t=816s

No, no, no. Do not fall for this "many scientists" claim. It is very few. They have been quoting a figure of 15 or 16 thousand scientists. Untrue. 15,000 people signed the petition or whatever it was. That could be any Tom, Dick or Harriet.

It is clear from all the data that herd immunity will not work without significant dangers to at risk groups.

In addition, although the majority of people in younger age groups are less affected you would still see an intolerable strain on health services if herd immunity were put into practice. Even now we are only just beginning to understand the implications of "long covid". Although the number of deaths in younger people is low, if you multiply that across large sections of the community the death toll would still be intolerable.

And no country has yet managed the trick of "shielding" at risk groups whilst letting the rest of society continue as normal. How would you look after people in care homes, hospitals, how would support at home from home helps work.

These proposals are grotesque and inhuman.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 09, 2020, 12:48:47 PM
Yes. In the Central Belt, restaurants are to shut but  cafes can open.
Then there needs to be a way to differentiate between a cafe and a restaurant. I presume this will be linked to planning, as each planning application will go beyond broad use classes and specify a particular use - so one businesses planning application (using English planning classes) will be A3 Cafe, while another will be A3 Restaurant. Yet another will be A4 Bar etc.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 09, 2020, 12:59:29 PM
Then there needs to be a way to differentiate between a cafe and a restaurant. I presume this will be linked to planning, as each planning application will go beyond broad use classes and specify a particular use - so one businesses planning application (using English planning classes) will be A3 Cafe, while another will be A3 Restaurant. Yet another will be A4 Bar etc.
It doesn't appear so from the briefing from Sturgeon
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 09, 2020, 01:16:49 PM
The definition they are using for cafe is

'An establishment whose primary business activity, in the ordinary course of its business, is the sale of non alcoholic drinks, snacks or light meals"
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 09, 2020, 01:47:03 PM
Nothing on  the licence states that they are cafes, and there is no official definition of a cafe.

So? The rule is "cafés are not allowed to serve alcohol". Whether a licence applies to a café or not is thus rendered irrelevant. It might have been relevant under the original rule that said only unlicensed cafés are allowed to even open, but that rule has been discarded as being stupid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 09, 2020, 01:55:48 PM
So? The rule is "cafés are not allowed to serve alcohol". Whether a licence applies to a café or not is thus rendered irrelevant. It might have been relevant under the original rule that said only unlicensed cafés are allowed to even open, but that rule has been discarded as being stupid.
You seem to be missing the point - there was no official definition of what a cafe was as opposed to a restaurant so there was confusion about what would be allowed to open. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 09, 2020, 02:01:31 PM
So? The rule is "cafés are not allowed to serve alcohol". Whether a licence applies to a café or not is thus rendered irrelevant. It might have been relevant under the original rule that said only unlicensed cafés are allowed to even open, but that rule has been discarded as being stupid.

I may have to partially retract this post. I was making an assumption that a café and a restaurant were effectively the same thing for legal purposes.

I've just looked at the guidance ofd the Scottish government's web site. This was posted on Wednesday morning, so before Sturgeon's "clarification".

https://www.gov.scot/news/new-moves-to-stop-covid-19-spread/

Quote
  • All licensed premises will be required to close, with the exception of takeaway services
  • Cafés (unlicensed premises) which don’t have an alcohol licence will be able to open between 6am and 6pm

Clearly the above depends on the definition of "café" being "eating establishment that does not serve alcohol".

Now Sturgeon seems to have erased the difference by saying there is such a thing as a café that serves alcohol.

The definition they are using for cafe is

'An establishment whose primary business activity, in the ordinary course of its business, is the sale of non alcoholic drinks, snacks or light meals"

which muddies the water. Is McDonald's a café? Under that definition it is IMO.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 09, 2020, 02:02:21 PM
You seem to be missing the point - there was no official definition of what a cafe was as opposed to a restaurant so there was confusion about what would be allowed to open.

See reply #3206
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SweetPea on October 09, 2020, 05:13:53 PM
No, no, no. Do not fall for this "many scientists" claim. It is very few. They have been quoting a figure of 15 or 16 thousand scientists. Untrue. 15,000 people signed the petition or whatever it was. That could be any Tom, Dick or Harriet.

It is clear from all the data that herd immunity will not work without significant dangers to at risk groups.

In addition, although the majority of people in younger age groups are less affected you would still see an intolerable strain on health services if herd immunity were put into practice. Even now we are only just beginning to understand the implications of "long covid". Although the number of deaths in younger people is low, if you multiply that across large sections of the community the death toll would still be intolerable.

And no country has yet managed the trick of "shielding" at risk groups whilst letting the rest of society continue as normal. How would you look after people in care homes, hospitals, how would support at home from home helps work.

These proposals are grotesque and inhuman.

The problem is the cure is becoming equally as bad as the disease. Peoples' lives are being ruined. Some folk are in real trouble both financially and mentally. Suicide rates have risen along with domestic and child abuse reports. This virus is not disappearing anytime soon, we may have to live with the 'new normal' and various restrictions indefinitely. At the moment two of my grandchildren are off school in isolation for two weeks because the infant department has closed as a member of staff tested positive for the virus. They could return to school and be sent home again within days when someone else tests positive.

What is happening as a result of lockdown restrictions is equally inhuman. One professor noted, so many coronavirus rules as measures have a limited effect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 10, 2020, 06:08:22 AM
There is definitely a different attitude to the pubs and restaurant closures this time in Scotland. Many putting up signs about the number of jobs supported, and rather daftly imo a dumping of ice from some bars in George Square in Glasgow last night.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 10, 2020, 09:49:12 AM
The problem is the cure is becoming equally as bad as the disease. Peoples' lives are being ruined. Some folk are in real trouble both financially and mentally. Suicide rates have risen along with domestic and child abuse reports. This virus is not disappearing anytime soon, we may have to live with the 'new normal' and various restrictions indefinitely. At the moment two of my grandchildren are off school in isolation for two weeks because the infant department has closed as a member of staff tested positive for the virus. They could return to school and be sent home again within days when someone else tests positive.

What is happening as a result of lockdown restrictions is equally inhuman. One professor noted, so many coronavirus rules as measures have a limited effect.

Sweetpea - if you want to follow the Great Barrington Declaration signed by Dr Harold Shipman and Dr I P Freely (amongst others) feel free. I think I'll stick with more reputable doctors and scientists.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/herd-immunity-letter-called-into-question-after-scores-of-fake-names-found-among-the-signatories/09/10/?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on October 10, 2020, 10:35:17 AM
The problem is the cure is becoming equally as bad as the disease. Peoples' lives are being ruined. Some folk are in real trouble both financially and mentally. Suicide rates have risen along with domestic and child abuse reports. This virus is not disappearing anytime soon, we may have to live with the 'new normal' and various restrictions indefinitely. At the moment two of my grandchildren are off school in isolation for two weeks because the infant department has closed as a member of staff tested positive for the virus. They could return to school and be sent home again within days when someone else tests positive.

What is happening as a result of lockdown restrictions is equally inhuman. One professor noted, so many coronavirus rules as measures have a limited effect.

If we went down the herd immunity route everything would be much worse. Widespread sickness and deaths, with a significant number of people having lifelong health issues, both physical and mental, and people not receiving treatment for other conditions as the health service is overwhelmed and short if staff. We don't even know if we could achieve herd immunity due to questions over how long antibodies last and what level of protection people get.

As with many such movements the leaders are fringe scientists and others with little or no knowledge, but with a political agenda, join in along with the jokers with the fake names. Happily those in charge know all this and won't be influenced by this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 10, 2020, 10:53:38 AM
This is good


https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/10/continual-local-lockdowns-answer-covid-control?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 10, 2020, 11:08:46 AM
This is good


https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/10/continual-local-lockdowns-answer-covid-control?__twitter_impression=true

Excellent article. Our* unwillingness to learn from others is quite staggering.

*When I say "our" I really mean "our government"
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 10, 2020, 11:52:09 AM
And yet another reason for herd immunity not to be considered a panacea:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/06/flurry-of-coronavirus-reinfections-leaves-scientists-puzzled
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 10, 2020, 02:01:11 PM
One of the places that I thought might claim that it was a cafe did so and were taking bookings but they have just announced that they will only be doing a takeaway service due to Scot Govt instructions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 10, 2020, 03:42:45 PM
Meanwhile billionaires doing well. Bezos I understand but Musk is a mystery to me


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54446285?fbclid=IwAR02pBFqlz-dFQeOyKhka0ZNLdaiKANw0x24SZX2YWJnrjqSypxDeeILsx8
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 10, 2020, 06:16:23 PM
This is good


https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/10/continual-local-lockdowns-answer-covid-control?__twitter_impression=true
No it isn’t.

China is almost certainly lying about its stats and, even if it isn’t, they did things that we would never tolerate like welding up the doors of apartment blocks.

New Zealand is in the back of beyond with a population smaller than London crammed into about 400 times the area.

I realise that this article feeds your prejudices, but it’s superficial nonsense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 10, 2020, 06:19:59 PM
No it isn’t.

China is almost certainly lying about its stats and, even if it isn’t, they did things that we would never tolerate like welding up the doors of apartment blocks.

New Zealand is in the back of beyond with a population smaller than London crammed into about 400 times the area.

I realise that this article feeds your prejudices, but it’s superficial nonsense.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devi_Sridhar
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 10, 2020, 06:25:39 PM
No it isn’t.

China is almost certainly lying about its stats and, even if it isn’t, they did things that we would never tolerate like welding up the doors of apartment blocks.

New Zealand is in the back of beyond with a population smaller than London crammed into about 400 times the area.

I realise that this article feeds your prejudices, but it’s superficial nonsense.
And what are my prejudices?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 11, 2020, 09:58:27 AM

Another good piece

https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/covid-unpopularity-nicola-sturgeons-new-restrictions-shows-alternative-must-be-much-worse-kirsty-strickland-2999011
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 11, 2020, 10:37:10 AM
Quote
I realise that this article feeds your prejudices, but it’s superficial nonsense.

Did you actually read the article?

At no point did it claim that we could get to a situation like NZ or Vietnam. I think everyone realises there will be differences between different countries.

It simply made the point that if you want to get to a point where society can function relatively normally you need a robust and efficient test and trace system, instead of worrying about letting people get their 2 weeks in the sun.

That our test and trace system is neither robust or efficient doesn't really need further explanation, but out of interest how fast are we testing people and what number are we failing to contact?

Latest figures I saw for tracing all contacts was 68.8%. That is not brilliant when you are trying to control a virus.

As for how fast test results come through:

• Turnaround times for pillar 2 (swab testing for the wide population) have become
longer for all in-person testing routes2 compared to the previous week. In the most
recent week, 60.8% of in-person tests results were received the next day after the
test was taken compared to 70.6% in the previous week. Turnaround times for
satellite/home tests have become notably shorter over the past 3 weeks.


Both these figures are from gov.uk website.

Everyone I know wants to get back to some kind of recognisable functioning society, but our government is failing us, particularly on test and trace.

The stupidity of it is, if they'd managed to get their collective arses into gear on test & trace, then all our other problems caused by the pandemic would have been so much easier to manage as shown by NZ and others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 11, 2020, 10:41:22 AM
Margaret Ferrier refusing to resign for travelling with Covid because she had Covid

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/margaret-ferrier-coronavirus-covid-snp-scotland-sturgeon-b957764.html?utm_content=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1602407989
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 11, 2020, 06:40:18 PM
Hmmm.... Holy Tory Corruption, Batman!


https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1315235954659999746.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 12, 2020, 12:05:02 PM
Did you actually read the article?

At no point did it claim that we could get to a situation like NZ or Vietnam. I think everyone realises there will be differences between different countries.
Why did it bring them up then?
Quote
It simply made the point that if you want to get to a point where society can function relatively normally you need a robust and efficient test and trace system, instead of worrying about letting people get their 2 weeks in the sun.
And yet that is what people worry about.
Quote
That our test and trace system is neither robust or efficient doesn't really need further explanation, but out of interest how fast are we testing people and what number are we failing to contact?

Latest figures I saw for tracing all contacts was 68.8%. That is not brilliant when you are trying to control a virus.

As for how fast test results come through:

• Turnaround times for pillar 2 (swab testing for the wide population) have become
longer for all in-person testing routes2 compared to the previous week. In the most
recent week, 60.8% of in-person tests results were received the next day after the
test was taken compared to 70.6% in the previous week. Turnaround times for
satellite/home tests have become notably shorter over the past 3 weeks.


Both these figures are from gov.uk website.

Everyone I know wants to get back to some kind of recognisable functioning society, but our government is failing us, particularly on test and trace.

The stupidity of it is, if they'd managed to get their collective arses into gear on test & trace, then all our other problems caused by the pandemic would have been so much easier to manage as shown by NZ and others.

I don't know what you are talking about. Our test and trace system is "world beating".

In all seriousness though, our test and trace system is broken for a lot of reasons and it may not even be fixable in the current political climate.

A fundamental problem here is that, when somebody makes a mistake, everybody wants to pillory them. That's not just the government but in the civil service and their contractors too. Thus, there is a culture of CYA which means that the people doing the work want to keep things secret and when mistakes are made, they want to cover them up. For example, the test and trace system was using Excel spreadsheets for data transfer, and old spreadsheets at that. Predictably they broke. We still don't know exactly what went wrong because people are trying to protect themselves and their jobs. Why wasn't the whole process completely open?

Another problem is the way our government's machinery works. Normally, when the government wants to spend some money, it takes weeks or months to make a decision and then months to actually get around to do anything. People assume that when Boris says "do this" it's going to happen, but he can't wave a magic wand. For example, to get shed loads of PPE through normal channels might take weeks or months of procurement. The NHS and government procurements department is not up to the task of getting millions of masks next week. If you need two million masks tomorrow to stop people from dying and your mate says he can supply them, there is a very strong temptation to take him up on his offer.

These are the reasons why you see government ministers giving contracts to their mates and why you see departments using Excel for safety critical applications. There's too much secrecy and too much blame culture for us to fix this properly.

It also doesn't help when people decide to ignore the rules as they did in some Northern towns and cities when the 10pm curfew for pubs came into effect. You may not agree with the rule, but gathering together in large crowds after the pubs shut isn't going to improve the situation.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 12, 2020, 12:08:08 PM
Hmmm.... Holy Tory Corruption, Batman!


https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1315235954659999746.html

It's either do things like that or wait for three months while the NHS procurement process grinds along. What would you do?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 12, 2020, 12:44:52 PM
It's either do things like that or wait for three months while the NHS procurement process grinds along. What would you do?
False dichotomy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on October 12, 2020, 01:26:20 PM
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-china-to-test-nine-million-people-in-just-five-days-after-12-new-cases-in-qingdao-city-12102432

Quote
An entire city of nine million people in China will be tested for COVID-19 in just five days after a small number of new cases emerged.
...
Qingdao's new infections came shortly after China had completed its Golden Week holiday, during which millions of people travel domestically to meet up with families.
...
In May, the authorities tested nearly all of the 11 million people in Wuhan - the city where COVID-19 first emerged at the end of last year.

There have also been mass testing schemes in Beijing and Urumqi.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 12, 2020, 02:46:54 PM
False dichotomy.
No it isn't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 12, 2020, 02:53:31 PM
No it isn't.
Yes it is - there is no reason why in the current circumstances the already well developed NHS procurement process could not be streamlined to ensure expediency.

The procurement process has been a mess from the start - failure to get the basics right, which are, of course, can you deliver a product that meets the standards required for PPE. We've seen masks bought that failed to meet standards, we've seen companies provided with contracts to produce a product that they've never produced before (e.g. ventilators) and they claimed they could design from scratch and get approval within weeks.

That is incompetence in the extreme and both massively costly to ordinary people, both in terms of cost to tax payer and fight against covid.

But it goes further than rank incompetence, doesn't it, as both example I've used involve organisations run by tory donors and tory chums, while other companies with experience and the ability to increase capacity were ignored.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 12, 2020, 03:31:36 PM
I found this story about how coronavirus affected one family (https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/What-are-we-so-afraid-of-15636693.php) very sad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 12, 2020, 03:34:20 PM
Yes it is - there is no reason why in the current circumstances the already well developed NHS procurement process could not be streamlined to ensure expediency.
How long would it have taken to streamline it? Once it had been streamlined, I guarantee you would find the exact same kind of mistakes being made as actually were made.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 12, 2020, 04:26:11 PM
Looks like the confusion in Scotland over cafes, may be mirrored in England by some confusion over restaurants vs bars. Indications seem to be that a Weatherspoons will be a restaurant.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54514079
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 12, 2020, 04:42:42 PM
How long would it have taken to streamline it?
As quickly as alterations in the regulation on procurement of goods and services with public funds can be altered - which is straight away if government chooses to, which it has for its own bungled centralised procurement.

Once it had been streamlined, I guarantee you would find the exact same kind of mistakes being made as actually were made.
I disagree - most of the time taken for public procurement is around value for money, rather than whether the item/equipment etc is fit for purpose. So I doubt very much that the NHS would decide to buy ventilators from Dyson who have never produced a ventilator in their lives and didn't even have a design for a ventilator, let alone a design that had been approved by regulators.

I don't believe the NHS would have bought 50 million masks for £232M that cannot be used because they don't have the right fixing from a micro company run by an advisor to Liz Truss (and his wife), and routed via a company that had never made, nor distributed masks or any other PPE previously.

But then this is from the people who brought you a ferry company without ferries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on October 13, 2020, 07:09:18 AM
John Crace's take on the performance of the occupant of 10 Downing Street yesterday.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/12/boris-johnsons-latest-covid-strategy-no-hope-and-no-end-in-sight
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 13, 2020, 09:58:53 AM
As quickly as alterations in the regulation on procurement of goods and services with public funds can be altered
So six months to a year.

Quote
- which is straight away if government chooses to

You have no idea how hard it is to make changes in government organisations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 13, 2020, 11:20:07 AM
This shouldn't need saying and yet the "herd immunity theory" is gaining more and more ground. so this is a useful reminder:

‘The head of the World Health Organization has warned against deliberately allowing coronavirus to spread in the hope of achieving so-called herd immunity, saying the idea is unethical.
‘“Herd immunity is a concept used for vaccination, in which a population can be protected from a certain virus if a threshold of vaccination is reached,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a virtual press briefing.
‘For measles, for instance, it is estimated that if 95% of the population is vaccinated, the remaining 5% will also be protected from the spread of the virus. For polio the threshold is estimated at 80%.
‘“Herd immunity is achieved by protecting people from a virus, not by exposing them to it,” Tedros said. “Never in the history of public health has herd immunity been used as a strategy for responding to an outbreak, let alone a pandemic.”
‘Relying on naturally obtaining herd immunity would be “scientifically and ethically problematic”, Tedros said. “Allowing a dangerous virus that we don’t fully understand to run free is simply unethical. It’s not an option.”’
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 13, 2020, 05:01:02 PM
WHO indeed!


https://newspunch.com/who-urges-world-leaders-to-stop-using-lockdown-to-fight-covid/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 13, 2020, 05:55:05 PM
So six months to a year.
Not if the government changes the regulations and enacts them with immediate effect.

You have no idea how hard it is to make changes in government organisations.
Typically as easy as changing the regulations at government level. The process works at the speed it takes those organisations to jump through government-imposed hoops. Remove those hoops and those organisations will move as fast as you like.

And out of interest why do you think I have no idea how hard it is to make changes in government organisations.

And out of further interest what do you classify as a government organisation - is the NHS one, how about schools, Universities, the military?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 13, 2020, 08:14:54 PM
Boris and the zoom call


https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/inside-boris-johnson-s-zoom-call-with-tory-mps/amp?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 13, 2020, 09:21:59 PM
And Boris the sorting twat

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/13/covid-mugger-back-boris-johnson-wrestling-second-wave-?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 14, 2020, 12:40:24 PM


'Lockdown does NOT save lives. It postpones deaths. You end up with the same number of deaths. You just prolong the crisis. Can this country stop being anti-science? We may as well be examining animal entrails'.The 'journalist' Allison Pearson.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 14, 2020, 01:04:10 PM

'Lockdown does NOT save lives. It postpones deaths. You end up with the same number of deaths. You just prolong the crisis. Can this country stop being anti-science? We may as well be examining animal entrails'.The 'journalist' Allison Pearson.

A reply on Twitter:

"I see we can now add the exponential rate of disease transmission to the long list of things Allison Pearson doesn't understand.

She is the Grand Canyon of stupidity. Her idiocy is breathtakingly deep and wide.
" John Carpenter (but not the film director)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 14, 2020, 07:22:30 PM
All ok, we have worldbeating experts, with worldbeating pay on our worldbeating system


https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-test-and-trace-consultants-paid-equivalent-of-1-5m-salary-12104028
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 15, 2020, 11:53:42 AM

'Lockdown does NOT save lives. It postpones deaths.
You could say that about anything that saves lives.

Quote
You end up with the same number of deaths. You just prolong the crisis. Can this country stop being anti-science? We may as well be examining animal entrails'.
I thought the science was saying we need lock downs.
Quote
The 'journalist' Allison Pearson.
Hmmm
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 15, 2020, 12:02:24 PM
All ok, we have worldbeating experts, with worldbeating pay on our worldbeating system


https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-test-and-trace-consultants-paid-equivalent-of-1-5m-salary-12104028

Back in 2000 when I was a Sendmail consultant, I was charged out at £1,500 per day. That's equivalent to £2,500 today or - based on 200 working days in the year - £500k per year. Of course, I only saw a fraction of that but the bottom end of what those consultants are charging is not atypical for certain highly sought after skills.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 15, 2020, 12:31:11 PM
Back in 2000 when I was a Sendmail consultant, I was charged out at £1,500 per day. That's equivalent to £2,500 today or - based on 200 working days in the year - £500k per year. Of course, I only saw a fraction of that but the bottom end of what those consultants are charging is not atypical for certain highly sought after skills.

Which might be ok if we saw any evidence of these "highly sought after skills"
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 15, 2020, 04:25:10 PM
Which might be ok if we saw any evidence of these "highly sought after skills"

The fact that they charge so much and people will pay seems like some evidence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 15, 2020, 04:38:48 PM
The fact that they charge so much and people will pay seems like some evidence.
Jeremy - any response to my comments in reply 3238, specifically:

Why you think I have no idea how hard it is to make changes in government organisations.

And what do you classify as a government organisation - is the NHS one, how about schools, Universities, the military?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 15, 2020, 04:49:31 PM
The fact that they charge so much and people will pay seems like some evidence.

No. Evidence would be a functioning and efficient test, track and trace system.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 15, 2020, 05:07:52 PM
Jeremy - any response to my comments in reply 3238, specifically:

Why you think I have no idea how hard it is to make changes in government organisations.

It's obvious isn't it? You keep claiming that the government can make changes happen quickly. I've worked with HMRC, DWP, NHS and the Borders Agency (gone now). They all have masses of process that slow things down and they tend to have management/staff culture problems too which leads to huge inertia. It's virtually impossible for an agency like the NHS to do things quickly and when they do, they make mistakes. Actually, the mistakes would be OK if it weren't for the fact that the government tends to get pilloried for them.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 15, 2020, 07:16:58 PM
The fact that they charge so much and people will pay seems like some evidence.
But given the corruption that you have already accepted, no.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 16, 2020, 11:33:44 AM
No. Evidence would be a functioning and efficient test, track and trace system.

You don't get to define what evidence is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 16, 2020, 11:58:30 AM
You don't get to define what evidence is.

Says the poster who offered a definiton of what evidence is:

Quote
The fact that they charge so much and people will pay seems like some evidence.

 ;D ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on October 16, 2020, 01:27:33 PM
A government driven by super-forecasting tech geniuses are spending £12B on systems that don't work?

YAY! KEEP CHUCKING THE CASH!

Well... someone has to pay my pension :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 16, 2020, 03:25:43 PM
Fail richer


https://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/national/18799139.serco-says-profits-set-soar-test-trace-contract-extension/?ref=twtrec
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 18, 2020, 12:56:01 PM
Some interesting stuff here


https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-global-data/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 19, 2020, 01:13:00 PM
Where Wales is going I fear we will soon follow

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54598136
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 19, 2020, 01:17:43 PM
Says the poster who offered a definiton of what evidence is:

 ;D ;D

I didn't define evidence in that post. I offered some evidence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 19, 2020, 01:20:43 PM
I must now declare an interest. As of last Wednesday, I am contracted onto the NHS Digital COVID test and trace monitoring team.

We're not making £2,000 per day out of it though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 19, 2020, 03:53:15 PM
I didn't define evidence in that post. I offered some evidence.

Doesn't seem like evidence to me. Are there KPI's involved?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 19, 2020, 08:04:09 PM
I must now declare an interest. As of last Wednesday, I am contracted onto the NHS Digital COVID test and trace monitoring team.

We're not making £2,000 per day out of it though.
(A) good for you. But (B) if a programme spends 12bn in 6 months and they screw up on Excel, and people in charge are being charged at 2Ok a week, then they are shite, the proframme is badly managed, and most of the 'cheaper' consultants are fucking up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on October 19, 2020, 09:17:39 PM
I heard a very moving call from a lady to LBC around 4.15pm today. She was stressed and in tears as she is in the holiday lets business in Wales. She said that there has been very little help for her industry as the help has gone to businesses paying rates and furloughing staff. She has lost thousands in income due to lockdown and social distancing rules and has been living on her savings and is about to lose her home as the mortgage holiday is over and the banks want money. She said she was educated, has worked all her life but the Covid help schemes the government are promoting either do not apply to her or are not giving her more than £79 a month to live on - pay her mortgage, bills etc. The isolation also seemed to be having a devastating effect on her during what is the worst time in her life economically - she could not get comfort by seeing relatives (parents, sisters) or her partner as he lived in another house and was struggling with his own business problems.

She wanted the government to end lockdown, preferring to take her chances of dying or falling sick to economic ruin and social isolation that she felt was as bad for her health as Covid-19. I had a lot of sympathy for her call. I have found it useful to not spend money on eating out etc but understand that a lot of people's livelihoods are built on us spending money on hospitality and leisure. I do not think there is any danger of the majority of people losing interest in spending their money on restaurants and bars - especially given the human need for social interaction. After hearing her call I have a better understanding of why some people are flouting the rules as the alternative to living in limbo in social isolation and facing economic ruin. She said the virus is part of Nature and it's here to stay and there is a limit to how effective we can be at fighting its population control.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 19, 2020, 09:30:01 PM
I heard a very moving call from a lady to LBC around 4.15pm today. She was stressed and in tears as she is in the holiday lets business in Wales. She said that there has been very little help for her industry as the help has gone to businesses paying rates and furloughing staff. She has lost thousands in income due to lockdown and social distancing rules and has been living on her savings and is about to lose her home as the mortgage holiday is over and the banks want money. She said she was educated, has worked all her life but the Covid help schemes the government are promoting either do not apply to her or are not giving her more than £79 a month to live on - pay her mortgage, bills etc. The isolation also seemed to be having a devastating effect on her during what is the worst time in her life economically - she could not get comfort by seeing relatives (parents, sisters) or her partner as he lived in another house and was struggling with his own business problems.

She wanted the government to end lockdown, preferring to take her chances of dying or falling sick to economic ruin and social isolation that she felt was as bad for her health as Covid-19. I had a lot of sympathy for her call. I have found it useful to not spend money on eating out etc but understand that a lot of people's livelihoods are built on us spending money on hospitality and leisure. I do not think there is any danger of the majority of people losing interest in spending their money on restaurants and bars - especially given the human need for social interaction. After hearing her call I have a better understanding of why some people are flouting the rules as the alternative to living in limbo in social isolation and facing economic ruin. She said the virus is part of Nature and it's here to stay and there is a limit to how effective we can be at fighting its population control.
Is she happy to have  the NHS at capacity? For NHS staff to be in danger ? Did her comments help you out on that,?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on October 19, 2020, 09:39:35 PM
Is she happy to have  the NHS at capacity? For NHS sradf to be it in danger ? Did her comments help you out on that,?
She didn't say anything about the NHS but my impression was that she was putting her life and the lives of others in her position ahead of the lives of NHS staff. It seemed like she thought the price of lockdown was too high a price to pay so decided if she had to choose between her life and someone else's she chose her life. Is that surprising that some people would choose to preserve their own life over others', given the choice? I don't find that surprising. So yes I would say her comments did help me out in understanding her POV. It's always good to get more of an understanding of what motivates different human behaviour.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 19, 2020, 11:30:13 PM
She didn't say anything about the NHS but my impression was that she was putting her life and the lives of others in her position ahead of the lives of NHS staff. It seemed like she thought the price of lockdown was too high a price to pay so decided if she had to choose between her life and someone else's she chose her life. Is that surprising that some people would choose to preserve their own life over others', given the choice? I don't find that surprising. So yes I would say her comments did help me out in understanding her POV. It's always good to get more of an understanding of what motivates different human behaviour.
Agree, it is worthwhile to listen to peoples' perspectives and experiences here but that doesn't make them right no matter how deeply felt. I think no matter what a govt chooses here it is in some sense damned but that does not mean a choices are equal, and in particular not all reactions are equal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on October 20, 2020, 09:55:49 AM
Agree, it is worthwhile to listen to peoples' perspectives and experiences here but that doesn't make them right no matter how deeply felt. I think no matter what a govt chooses here it is in some sense damned but that does not mean a choices are equal, and in particular not all reactions are equal.
Right is relative and depends on whose perspective you approach the issue from, especially when you are talking about survival. People who might not die from Covid-19 but might die from financial ruin or lack of access to cancer treatment will think it is right for them to take the risks involved in prioritising their life over the lives of others who might die from Covid-19.

There currently seems to be a difference of opinion over what is right and wrong and whose lives matter more with respect to Covid and lockdown. You favour protecting NHS staff and people vulnerable to Covid, while others prefer taking the risk of catching Covid and its long-term effects and the risk of others catching Covid over facing their own certain financial ruin or homelessness or long-term crippling depression or suicide or death from not being able to access medical care for health issues other than Covid.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on October 21, 2020, 06:25:42 AM
Interesting article about government contracts surrounding the 'world beating' track and trace system.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/21/government-covid-contracts-britain-nhs-corporate-executives-test-and-trace
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on October 21, 2020, 07:26:50 AM
And another on the problems of test and trace: hard to decide how much is just centralised Tory incompetence/nepotism, and how much is plain corruption in handing out contracts to Tory cronies.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/21/liverpool-government-test-trace-britain-covid-19 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 21, 2020, 11:02:08 AM
Is she happy to have  the NHS at capacity? For NHS staff to be in danger ? Did her comments help you out on that,?
My feeling is that prioritizing the NHS over the economy risks creating a false sense that the NHS is responsible for peoples' health, rather than the individual him or herself. Let's not forget that a healthy economy may also lead to a more healthy nation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 21, 2020, 11:10:49 AM
Quote
Let's not forget that a healthy economy may also lead to a more healthy nation.
Modify message

You've got that arse about face.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 21, 2020, 11:26:29 AM
You've got that arse about face.
So you think the country going into further debt will be a better long term outcome?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 21, 2020, 12:05:24 PM
So you think the country going into further debt will be a better long term outcome?
Rad for comprehension. I never said that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 21, 2020, 03:08:03 PM
Rad for comprehension. I never said that.
Fair enough. What I would consider arse about face is people crossing the road to avoid others, or asking the shopkeeper to bring out some bananas to avoid entering the shop, both things I have seen since March. All apparently to protect the NHS
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 21, 2020, 03:24:46 PM
Fair enough. What I would consider arse about face is people crossing the road to avoid others, or asking the shopkeeper to bring out some bananas to avoid entering the shop, both things I have seen since March. All apparently to protect the NHS

And? I frequently cross the road to avoid others. It's not to protect the NHS it's to protect me and my partner who is in one of the higher risk groups (as per a letter from his GP).

If I don't think people are capable of keeping a required social distance then I am not going to take the risk of coming into close contact with them.

I am taking responsibility for my health and my partners health.

Is that a difficult concept for you? Is it a particular problem for you that I choose to cross the road?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 21, 2020, 05:37:21 PM
And? I frequently cross the road to avoid others. It's not to protect the NHS it's to protect me and my partner who is in one of the higher risk groups (as per a letter from his GP).

If I don't think people are capable of keeping a required social distance then I am not going to take the risk of coming into close contact with them.

I am taking responsibility for my health and my partners health.

Is that a difficult concept for you? Is it a particular problem for you that I choose to cross the road?

Is it not going a bit far though? What about the person you're avoiding, how does it make them feel?

I heard on the radio someone involved in trialing a vaccine saying they don't know how much virus is needed to infect someone - they give volunteers a bit at a time. How do you know what distance is required to avoid picking up enough microbes to infect you? I've heard that in Sweden the recommended distance is 1m.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 21, 2020, 05:56:23 PM
Is it not going a bit far though? What about the person you're avoiding, how does it make them feel?
That you are respecting social distancing in case either one of you might be infected.

I cross the road to respect social distancing too as do plenty of other people I encounter - it is just common courtesy in these difficult times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 21, 2020, 06:17:41 PM
That you are respecting social distancing in case either one of you might be infected.

I cross the road to respect social distancing too as do plenty of other people I encounter - it is just common courtesy in these difficult times.

Isn't it a bit ott though?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 21, 2020, 06:40:47 PM
So no pubs and restaurants in the Central Belt for an extra week. And there is going to be a 5 tier system in Scotland. Can't help but feel this tier inflation is a bad idea.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54631004
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 21, 2020, 06:58:36 PM
Quote
Is it not going a bit far though? What about the person you're avoiding, how does it make them feel?

No it's not going a bit far. It is what I feel comfortable with. I can't control how other people feel about me crossing the road, but perhaps they are grateful that I am maintaining a respectful distance from them, because that is what it is. If they think it is something else, then that is their problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 21, 2020, 07:33:13 PM
Isn't it a bit ott though?
No - it is the new norm - you cannot respect 2M social distancing when passing someone coming the other way on a pavement that is less than 2M wide (which is most pavements). So to respect social distancing one or other of you needs to move further away - sometimes, where safe, that involves walking down the road rather than the pavement. Otherwise crossing over the road and walking on the other pavement.

Round my way it is just what happens all the time - I don't think anyone considers it OTT, they consider it polite and courteous.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on October 21, 2020, 07:42:13 PM
No - it is the new norm - you cannot respect 2M social distancing when passing someone coming the other way on a pavement that is less than 2M wide (which is most pavements). So to respect social distancing one or other of you needs to move further away - sometimes, where safe, that involves walking down the road rather than the pavement. Otherwise crossing over the road and walking on the other pavement.

Round my way it is just what happens all the time - I don't think anyone considers it OTT, they consider it polite and courteous.

Totally agree.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on October 21, 2020, 08:43:53 PM
So do I, it's common sense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on October 22, 2020, 08:37:12 AM
Me too. Fortunately, I do not have to cross the road - my sweep stick is a long enough, white and noisy enough signal for other people to take appropriate action to distance us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 22, 2020, 09:37:40 AM
No it's not going a bit far. It is what I feel comfortable with.
That's understandable, everyone is different and if your immune system is suppressed you might be more vulnerable to the virus; I wear more layers than a lot of people, to avoid colds, and I get funny looks occasionally.

No - it is the new norm - you cannot respect 2M social distancing when passing someone coming the other way on a pavement that is less than 2M wide (which is most pavements). So to respect social distancing one or other of you needs to move further away - sometimes, where safe, that involves walking down the road rather than the pavement. Otherwise crossing over the road and walking on the other pavement.

Round my way it is just what happens all the time - I don't think anyone considers it OTT, they consider it polite and courteous.


I understand that in densely populated areas like Oxford Street there is a problem. What I'm talking about is round where I live where you might pass someone only occasionally, so all you have to do is not cough or breathe over them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 22, 2020, 09:58:10 AM
I understand that in densely populated areas like Oxford Street there is a problem. What I'm talking about is round where I live where you might pass someone only occasionally
I have no idea where you live, but I'm not talking about Oxford St, but suburban Hertfordshire.

Frankly the density of people isn't the main issue - the main point is that we are supposed to respect social distancing and that isn't possible to two people passing each other on a standard pavement. So the sensible, safe and polite thing to do is for one of those people to move to the side - into the road if safe, or to the other side of the road.

... so all you have to do is not cough or breathe over them.
So do you hold your breath as you walk up to them and pass them? Do they do the same? If not you will each be breathing in the exhalation of the other at close distance and that is a risk. You reduce the risk by maintaining the 2M social distance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 22, 2020, 10:25:25 AM
Quote
That's understandable, everyone is different and if your immune system is suppressed you might be more vulnerable to the virus;

It is more than that though. The infection rate is currently going in the wrong direction. We all have a responsibility to try to avoid getting infected, for our own health our family and friends health and by extension the health of the nation.

One of the EASIEST ways to do this is to maintain social distancing. It's not an especially difficult thing for me to do. It would help the country out of the present problems if we all tried to do this as much as we are able, some people (like myself) are in a position where it is relatively easy to do, so I do it.

That hopefully helps to offset others who for a variety of reasons are having a much harder time of it due to crowded households, multi occupancy accommodation, the need to travel to work, student accommodation....the list is pretty much endless. We all have to do our bit, government interventions will only ever go part way to solving this issue.

So cover your face, wash your hands, and keep your distance. It's not rocket science.

And, oh yeah, don't be embarrassed or feel uncomfortable about either crossing the road or seeing someone cross the road. You never know that simple action just might save someone's life.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 22, 2020, 11:46:27 AM
That's understandable, everyone is different and if your immune system is suppressed you might be more vulnerable to the virus
And as you walk towards someone on a pavement how do you know their immune system isn't suppressed?

I think the best advice in terms of social interactions and distancing is firstly to assume you have the virus and are infectious (you could well be even without symptoms) and secondly to assume any person you are interacting with is particularly vulnerable (as you have no way of knowing).

If you follow that advice it becomes pretty clear why the sensible approach is to cross to the other side of the street to pass someone rather than passing them shoulder to shoulder on a single pavement.

Of course the big challenge with the new world of covid etiquette is when you are walking towards someone on a pavement and, as so often happens, you both make the move to walk in the road/on the other side of the road. What it the correct etiquette to determine who stays on the same pavement and who moves to the road/other pavement. That's where the nightmare begins ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 22, 2020, 12:53:13 PM
Will we know it's Christmas time at all?


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54643340
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 22, 2020, 05:33:16 PM
And as you walk towards someone on a pavement how do you know their immune system isn't suppressed?
We have to take a risk. I'm not saying that people shouldn't avoid crowded areas. But a one-off interaction on the pavement is hardly going to make you breathe in enough virus to become infected, so long as you don't cough over each other. I've seen so much nutcasery that it's clear to me that the restrictions are way over the top. For example, a friend of mine who isn't well educated washed her hands so much that they became red, chapped and painful - because of Boris saying "Wash Your Hands". We have to strike a balance between hand-washing to remove the virus and not washing them for long enough to allow the skin to oil itself. That involves some degree of risk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 22, 2020, 05:52:37 PM
We have to take a risk.
But it isn't you taking the risk, is it Spud. It is the other person taking the risk because of your behaviour.

But a one-off interaction on the pavement is hardly going to make you breathe in enough virus to become infected, so long as you don't cough over each other.
No it is perfectly possible to become infected through breathing in someone else's exhaled air at close quarters. That's why we socially distance - the further away you are the lower the concentration of virus in the exhaled air and the reduced risk of infection. And it is a power law, so twice the distance, four times reduction in viral concentration at least.

I've seen so much nutcasery that it's clear to me that the restrictions are way over the top. For example, a friend of mine who isn't well educated washed her hands so much that they became red, chapped and painful - because of Boris saying "Wash Your Hands".
Err - in which case learn to wash your hands properly and still wash them regularly rather than wash them less.

We have to strike a balance between hand-washing to remove the virus and not washing them for long enough to allow the skin to oil itself. That involves some degree of risk.
There is absolutely no reason why washing your hands regularly enough to remove virus should create skin issues, unless you have an underlying skin complaint.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 24, 2020, 10:22:58 AM
But it isn't you taking the risk, is it Spud. It is the other person taking the risk because of your behaviour.
No it is perfectly possible to become infected through breathing in someone else's exhaled air at close quarters. That's why we socially distance - the further away you are the lower the concentration of virus in the exhaled air and the reduced risk of infection. And it is a power law, so twice the distance, four times reduction in viral concentration at least.
Err - in which case learn to wash your hands properly and still wash them regularly rather than wash them less.
There is absolutely no reason why washing your hands regularly enough to remove virus should create skin issues, unless you have an underlying skin complaint.
My sister came from abroad to stay with us for a week a few years ago and she had a cold. I interacted with her all week, but did not pick up the cold.
My philosophy is to accept that I might breathe in some virus from an infected person, but that I have the means of defending against the microbes once I pick them up. The first line of defense is sensory, where you feel an abnormal sensation in the nose, throat, eyes etc.
Once you sense that you may have picked up a virus you can do lots of things to ensure that it doesn't infect you. Open windows or go outside, so that you don't pick up too much. Stay worm, rinse the viruses out with toothpaste and water, clean up, wash dirty hankies, spit excess phlegm out. You can also improve lymphatic drainage by stretching neck muscles. Stay off the internet, as eyes are a route of infection.
I just feel that some of the behaviour I've seen, particularly at the outset of the pandemic, is irrational: Waitrose staff obsessively wiping basket handles (they've stopped that now), able-bodied men staying indoors since March due to living with an elderly parent, preachers in their online sermons saying how am I going to get the bin bags to the end of the drive.... etc. It reminds me of the proverb about the sluggard who won't go out because there might be a lion in the street.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on October 24, 2020, 02:00:57 PM
Any evidence to support your medical advice there Spud? Reducing inoculant is important but how does staying off the internet help? Flushing out with toothpaste?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 24, 2020, 03:05:34 PM
Quote
Once you sense that you may have picked up a virus you can do lots of things to ensure that it doesn't infect you.

You've not really got the hang of viruses have you?

"Stay worm" is your only sensible advice here. (yes I realise it's a typo - but staying warm is not going to stop the virus. So let "stay worm" be your watchword - we're all worms now)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on October 24, 2020, 03:08:56 PM
You've not really got the hang of viruses have you?
He'll be telling us to drink bleach next.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 24, 2020, 06:22:37 PM
Any evidence to support your medical advice there Spud? Reducing inoculant is important but how does staying off the internet help? Flushing out with toothpaste?

I have quite a lot to say about this, but I need to get it right, so will start at the beginning. The chap who founded the Osteopathic profession, Andrew Taylor Still, wrote that he first had the idea when, as a practicing doctor, he found that his headache subsided when he rested his head on a swing in the garden. He realized that there was a mechanical component to disease.

Fast-forward about 120 years: I had a stinker of a cold about 5 years ago. The streaming nose dried up at night, and only started again when I became active. So during the day I tried lying still on my back, and realized that as long as I didn't move my head, my nose would dry up and be fairly comfortable.

So having studied Osteopathy between 1992-96 (sadly no longer practicing) but not ever treated a virus, I thought, if you can reduce the symptoms of a cold in the above way, could you prevent the initial infection using the same principle?

When I feel the slightest symptoms of a cold I try to replicate that posture in some way, and I think it does help to prevent getting the full-blown infection.

So far I've only had one bad cold since that time, whereas I used to get one every year.

Since Covid 19 causes respiratory infection, like the common cold, I am interested in whether it can be prevented using a similar mechanical intervention.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on October 24, 2020, 07:30:35 PM
So the answer to my question is 'no'.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on October 24, 2020, 09:13:47 PM
I don't see the connection between putting head on swing to relieve headache and lying flat on back to reduce respiratory infection  :o. Respiratory infections are generally worse if you lie flat; mucus goes down the respiratory tract instead of coming out, collects, becomes stagnant and causes chest infections, very common in inactive people. They are generally encouraged to sit upright and let it come out. We're meant to cough and sneeze, it clears the mucous membranes. I'd rather put up with a runny nose for a short while than get pneumonia.

How do you work lying on your back? Don't answer that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 25, 2020, 09:08:20 AM
I don't see the connection between putting head on swing to relieve headache and lying flat on back to reduce respiratory infection  :o. Respiratory infections are generally worse if you lie flat; mucus goes down the respiratory tract instead of coming out, collects, becomes stagnant and causes chest infections, very common in inactive people. They are generally encouraged to sit upright and let it come out. We're meant to cough and sneeze, it clears the mucous membranes. I'd rather put up with a runny nose for a short while than get pneumonia.

How do you work lying on your back? Don't answer that.
Glad you wrote this. Yes, during a cold the nose produces huge quantities of fluid, which you can blow out through the nose or swallow, or, when you're asleep, it collects and causes problems.
During my gap year I worked as a care assistant, and came across something called a sputum pot. Patients with respiratory disease use these to cough up sputum at night. I know it sounds gross, but I thought I'd try spitting out the excess liquid and mucus at night when I thought I was getting a cold. It helps to stop the sore throat and cough that result from swallowing it, and also saves the skin and nasal epithelium from being damaged due to excessive nose blowing. This enables you to sleep better, too. You can even prevent a cold if you do it at the time when you feel one coming on.

Lying on your back becomes easier if you spit out the fluid produced by the nose. But the other thing is that if you keep the neck still, and I've found lying supine to be most effective, the nose doesn't produce so much fluid. As soon as you start straining the neck it starts again. I relate this to nerve irritation from neck joint dysfunction.

All I'm saying is that if you can get the neck to relax, symptoms from cold virus and headache can be relieved and even prevented.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 25, 2020, 09:17:13 AM
Any evidence to support your medical advice there Spud? Reducing inoculant is important but how does staying off the internet help? Flushing out with toothpaste?
Brushing with toothpaste washes microbes out of the mouth. It also stimulates saliva production which enables remaining microbes to be swallowed.
Looking at computer screens causes eyestrain. It interferes with normal eye muscle function - in the days before computers, lights were used to illuminate things without pointing them in our faces.
Eye function is linked with head and neck function in general.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on October 25, 2020, 11:01:56 AM
Brushing with toothpaste washes microbes out of the mouth. It also stimulates saliva production which enables remaining microbes to be swallowed.
Looking at computer screens causes eyestrain. It interferes with normal eye muscle function - in the days before computers, lights were used to illuminate things without pointing them in our faces.
Eye function is linked with head and neck function in general.

The main route by which the virus gets into us is via the naval cavity directly into the respiratory system. An amount may be present in the mouth but even if you could flush most of it out there is no evidence this would avoid infection. What do the eye muscles have to do with a respiratory infection?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on October 25, 2020, 11:24:30 AM
Spud

I'm astonished that a member of this forum would choose not to wear a mask and follow the safety directions. I think it is very selfish of you and I cannot think of any reason to condone such behaviour.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 25, 2020, 02:12:51 PM
The main route by which the virus gets into us is via the naval cavity directly into the respiratory system.
Quote
[Nasal hair is] a filter for dust, pollen, spores, viruses and bacteria. Particles stick to the wet surface of your nose hairs, which prevents them from reaching your lungs and causing infection. Eventually you’ll either blow the nasties into a tissue, or swallow them, to be destroyed in your stomach.
reference (https://www.sciencefocus.com/the-human-body/does-nasal-hair-have-any-useful-function/)
Given that our nasal passage is designed to keep viruses out, I would still say that crossing the road to pass someone is over the top, unless perhaps you or that person is singing or coughing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 25, 2020, 02:13:25 PM
Spud

I'm astonished that a member of this forum would choose not to wear a mask and follow the safety directions. I think it is very selfish of you and I cannot think of any reason to condone such behaviour.
Susan
i do wear a mask.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 25, 2020, 02:15:36 PM
An amount may be present in the mouth but even if you could flush most of it out there is no evidence this would avoid infection.
Brushing with toothpaste is proven to reduce diseases including pneumonia.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on October 25, 2020, 02:50:12 PM
Brushing with toothpaste is proven to reduce diseases including pneumonia.

Evidence for a respiratory viral disease please. In fact any evidence would be interesting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on October 25, 2020, 02:52:52 PM
reference (https://www.sciencefocus.com/the-human-body/does-nasal-hair-have-any-useful-function/)
Given that our nasal passage is designed to keep viruses out, I would still say that crossing the road to pass someone is over the top, unless perhaps you or that person is singing or coughing.

The risk from passing close to someone outdoors is low but why do it when you can show respect to them by giving them space and avoid the risk ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on October 25, 2020, 02:59:09 PM
Brushing with toothpaste is proven to reduce diseases including pneumonia.

This report talks about benefits of good oral hygiene related to hospital pneumonia resulting from bacteria in the mouth being carried into the lungs when using respirators.  Is that what you meant?

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/12/081211141842.htm#:~:text=The%20nurses%20found%20that%20if,by%20as%20much%20as%2050%25.&text=It's%20difficult%20to%20quantify%20the%20effects%20precisely%2C%20the%20researchers%20say. (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/12/081211141842.htm#:~:text=The%20nurses%20found%20that%20if,by%20as%20much%20as%2050%25.&text=It's%20difficult%20to%20quantify%20the%20effects%20precisely%2C%20the%20researchers%20say.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 25, 2020, 07:09:31 PM
Evidence for a respiratory viral disease please. In fact any evidence would be interesting.
I've given a link earlier in this thread with a list of diseases linked with poor dental hygiene. One is bacterial pneumonia, which is a complication of Covid 19.

What do the eye muscles have to do with a respiratory infection?
Simplistically, think of the difference in ease with which you can stand on one leg with your eyes open to with them closed. Or the way in which the eyes can fix on an object while turning the head.
Now imagine you develop poor posture from lack of exercise resulting from eye strain or retinal damage from screen light. This can make us more susceptible to respiratory infection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 26, 2020, 07:47:19 AM
(A) good for you. But (B) if a programme spends 12bn in 6 months and they screw up on Excel, and people in charge are being charged at 2Ok a week, then they are shite, the proframme is badly managed, and most of the 'cheaper' consultants are fucking up.
The Excel fiasco was not in the NHS-D part or the part run by Deloitte.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 26, 2020, 07:56:03 AM
So do you hold your breath as you walk up to them and pass them? Do they do the same? If not you will each be breathing in the exhalation of the other at close distance and that is a risk. You reduce the risk by maintaining the 2M social distance.
Yes, I do. It wasn’t a conscious decision but I do find I hold my breath for the few moments I pass somebody in the street.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ekim on October 26, 2020, 09:33:22 AM
Yes, I do. It wasn’t a conscious decision but I do find I hold my breath for the few moments I pass somebody in the street.
I have no trouble in smelling the perfume or tobacco smoke from car's driver/passengers as it whisks by, even if none of the windows are open.  I often wonder if this is a source of viral infection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on October 26, 2020, 11:45:02 AM
I've given a link earlier in this thread with a list of diseases linked with poor dental hygiene. One is bacterial pneumonia, which is a complication of Covid 19.
Simplistically, think of the difference in ease with which you can stand on one leg with your eyes open to with them closed. Or the way in which the eyes can fix on an object while turning the head.
Now imagine you develop poor posture from lack of exercise resulting from eye strain or retinal damage from screen light. This can make us more susceptible to respiratory infection.

I must have missed your link, but you are referring to bacterial causes if complications of Covid-19 treatment not about reducing the chances of catching Covid-19. You talk about posture etc then claim a link to respiratory diseases. Again I presume you are talking about pneumonia. Maybe you could clarify what you were actually claiming.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 26, 2020, 05:00:24 PM
The Excel fiasco was not in the NHS-D part or the part run by Deloitte.
Doesn't that merely demonstrate the fragmented and incoherent approach. Frankly it doesn't matter which part the failure exists in if is a single point of failure issue. If this doesn't work properly then the whole app-as-part-of-test-track-and-trace doesn't work.

It a bit like saying after a plane crash that it failure wasn't in the air conditioning part or the plane or the toilet part of the plane if the wings fell off.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 26, 2020, 05:02:23 PM
Yes, I do. It wasn’t a conscious decision but I do find I hold my breath for the few moments I pass somebody in the street.
I suspect quite a few people do this - however the point remains that you (regardless of whether you are holding your breath) cannot know whether the person you are passing is also holding their breath. Hence better to put distance between the two of you if you can - which in most cases when passing someone on a pavement you are able to do by one person crossing the road or walking in the road for a few metres (if safe).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 27, 2020, 09:00:45 AM
I must have missed your link, but you are referring to bacterial causes if complications of Covid-19 treatment not about reducing the chances of catching Covid-19.
"most toothpastes and mouthwashes contain detergents with anti-viral qualities, similar to those in hand sanitisers" - https://tinyurl.com/y6gx9sqj

Quote
You talk about posture etc then claim a link to respiratory diseases. Again I presume you are talking about pneumonia. Maybe you could clarify what you were actually claiming.
The osteopathic perspective is that the body has all it needs to fight disease (secretory cells and ciliated epithelium in the airways, for example) and that there is often a musculoskeletal component to disease. Muscles of the front of the neck and chest can become shortened due to poor posture, and that leads to changes in our breathing pattern. Some parts of the lungs don't get used for gas exchange, because they are not inflated during quiet breathing, and poor posture exacerbates this. The lungs are then more susceptible to infection. Cardiovascular exercise is good because it expands the lungs so that all parts of them are used. But also, breathing exercises and stretching exercises can help to avoid this, for example stretching the pectoral and scalene muscles. Just as stretching the hamstrings relieves tension through the patella (since the quads won't have to work so hard to pull against the tight hamstrings), and so relieve patellar pain, stretching thoracic and neck muscles makes breathing more efficient and can help prevent respiratory infection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on October 27, 2020, 09:28:28 AM
"most toothpastes and mouthwashes contain detergents with anti-viral qualities, similar to those in hand sanitisers" - https://tinyurl.com/y6gx9sqj
The osteopathic perspective is that the body has all it needs to fight disease (secretory cells and ciliated epithelium in the airways, for example) and that there is often a musculoskeletal component to disease. Muscles of the front of the neck and chest can become shortened due to poor posture, and that leads to changes in our breathing pattern. Some parts of the lungs don't get used for gas exchange, because they are not inflated during quiet breathing, and poor posture exacerbates this. The lungs are then more susceptible to infection. Cardiovascular exercise is good because it expands the lungs so that all parts of them are used. But also, breathing exercises and stretching exercises can help to avoid this, for example stretching the pectoral and scalene muscles. Just as stretching the hamstrings relieves tension through the patella (since the quads won't have to work so hard to pull against the tight hamstrings), and so relieve patellar pain, stretching thoracic and neck muscles makes breathing more efficient and can help prevent respiratory infection.
I don't care how many ideas you may present about posture, etc etc, but you seem to be presenting them as if doing all that you recommend would overcome the rapid spread of the covid 19 and I think you should keep them for another time, not promote them in the way you are at this particular time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 27, 2020, 09:37:32 AM
I don't care how many ideas you may present about posture, etc etc, but you seem to be presenting them as if doing all that you recommend would overcome the rapid spread of the covid 19 and I think you should keep them for another time, not promote them in the way you are at this particular time.
I think asking people to not express their ideas because they might be dangerous just leads  to groupthink
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on October 27, 2020, 09:42:59 AM
"most toothpastes and mouthwashes contain detergents with anti-viral qualities, similar to those in hand sanitisers" - https://tinyurl.com/y6gx9sqj
The osteopathic perspective is that the body has all it needs to fight disease (secretory cells and ciliated epithelium in the airways, for example) and that there is often a musculoskeletal component to disease. Muscles of the front of the neck and chest can become shortened due to poor posture, and that leads to changes in our breathing pattern. Some parts of the lungs don't get used for gas exchange, because they are not inflated during quiet breathing, and poor posture exacerbates this. The lungs are then more susceptible to infection. Cardiovascular exercise is good because it expands the lungs so that all parts of them are used. But also, breathing exercises and stretching exercises can help to avoid this, for example stretching the pectoral and scalene muscles. Just as stretching the hamstrings relieves tension through the patella (since the quads won't have to work so hard to pull against the tight hamstrings), and so relieve patellar pain, stretching thoracic and neck muscles makes breathing more efficient and can help prevent respiratory infection.

Your link contains claims that brushing your teeth could help re Covid-19 infection, but also contains the comment '“Whilst I cannot say for certain that there would be no effect whatsoever, I do not think it likely that teeth brushing would make that much difference,” he explained. “Firstly droplets can and do infect through the nose and can be inhaled directly to the back of the throat and deeper into the respiratory tract so any residual disinfection around the teeth is very unlikely to have much if any benefit." So not really great support for your suggestions.

Your claims re muscular skeletal influences may also be possible regarding general health and well being but there is no specific evidence of any effect regarding viral infection from Sars-Cov-2.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 27, 2020, 03:43:41 PM
Your link contains claims that brushing your teeth could help re Covid-19 infection, but also contains the comment '“Whilst I cannot say for certain that there would be no effect whatsoever, I do not think it likely that teeth brushing would make that much difference,” he explained. “Firstly droplets can and do infect through the nose and can be inhaled directly to the back of the throat and deeper into the respiratory tract so any residual disinfection around the teeth is very unlikely to have much if any benefit." So not really great support for your suggestions.

Your claims re muscular skeletal influences may also be possible regarding general health and well being but there is no specific evidence of any effect regarding viral infection from Sars-Cov-2.
What the two medics say also goes for handwashing: what if you get some virus on your hands after washing them? They seem rather committed to anything as long as it's got evidence to prove it. I doubt they know much more about tooth brushing and its benefits than any other person, after all it's something we all do. Further, research has been done that showed mouthwash eliminated virus after three rinses (carried out in a beaker iirc).
That said, I agree that it is still basically at the 'it works for me' stage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 27, 2020, 04:46:03 PM
They seem rather committed to anything as long as it's got evidence to prove it.
What on earth would you expect them to do. Surely there are three alternatives here:

1. There is evidence that something is effective - then promote it.

2. There is no evidence that something is effective because there has been research which has failed to find it effective - do not promote it

3. There is no evidence that something is effective because there hasn't been sufficient research yet. In which case do the research and if it is found to be effective move to 1 above, if not move to 2 above.

End of.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 27, 2020, 07:27:25 PM
What on earth would you expect them to do.
Be a bit more positive! Not that it matters, everyone has access to tooth brushes and paste already.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 27, 2020, 07:50:50 PM
Be a bit more positive! Not that it matters, everyone has access to tooth brushes and paste already.
Why should medics/scientists be 'positive' about something (i.e. recommending it) unless there is evidence that it works. To do so without that evidence runs the risk of lulling people into a false sense of security if they adopt behaviour that won't protect them or worse potentially harming them.

The 'positive' thing to do if there isn't evidence is to go and get that evidence as to whether it works or not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 27, 2020, 08:00:29 PM
Further, research has been done that showed mouthwash eliminated virus after three rinses (carried out in a beaker iirc).
Problem with this research is that it was carried out in the idealised environment of a petri dish (with guaranteed 100% contact between virus and reagent, not the non-idealised environment of a real mouth. The other big flaw is that the key entry point for the virus seems to be certain types of nasal cell - ie. the nose, not the mouth.

That said, I agree that it is still basically at the 'it works for me' stage.
There isn't such a thing as the 'it works for me stage' something either works or it doesn't - thinking you'd like it to work just cos you like the idea is merely the placebo effect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on October 28, 2020, 07:59:25 AM
I was just wondering … does anyone have an idea of, vaguely, how many people have had the virus one way or another since the beginning of the year. If every single person from youngest to oldest was tested today, what, vaguely, would the total be, and that would be including the number who have died? This may be an impossible question, but I ask it in case someone has an idea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 28, 2020, 01:06:01 PM
Problem with this research is that it was carried out in the idealised environment of a petri dish (with guaranteed 100% contact between virus and reagent, not the non-idealised environment of a real mouth. The other big flaw is that the key entry point for the virus seems to be certain types of nasal cell - ie. the nose, not the mouth.
The experiment demonstrated that the mouthwash kills the virus. Of course it's not going to eliminate all of the virus in the mouth, but will still reduce the viral load.
Quote
There isn't such a thing as the 'it works for me stage' something either works or it doesn't - thinking you'd like it to work just cos you like the idea is merely the placebo effect.
What I meant was that it is still at the stage where somebody discovers that something benefits them, but this hasn't been confirmed experimentally. I'm not claiming that any one action can completely ensure one doesn't become infected. Only complete isolation or maybe a vaccine could do that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 28, 2020, 06:02:34 PM
The experiment demonstrated that the mouthwash kills the virus. Of course it's not going to eliminate all of the virus in the mouth, but will still reduce the viral load.
But the experiment was carried out in a dish - there is no guarantee that the virus will be killed in the mouth.

And as the key route of entry and infection seems to be via specific cells in the nasal passage then killing the virus in the mouth may have no, or very limited effect, in actually preventing infection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 28, 2020, 06:07:57 PM
What I meant was that it is still at the stage where somebody discovers that something benefits them, but this hasn't been confirmed experimentally.
How on earth can you say that something benefits them unless you have demonstrated that through experiment. We aren't talking about a subjective benefit here but an objective one - you become infected or you don't become infected. How on earth can an individual know whether has benefited them in this respect (mouthwash reducing likelihood of becoming infected with covid) unless there is evidence to demonstrate it.

Someone claiming something benefits them in terms of likelihood of covid infection is complete non-sense without evidence. Indeed it is worse than that as if someone thinks it benefits them when actually it has no effect on infection then that person may take additional risks because they think they are safe than they actually are, not only resulted in additional risk to themselves but also to others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 29, 2020, 10:17:25 AM
I was just wondering … does anyone have an idea of, vaguely, how many people have had the virus one way or another since the beginning of the year. If every single person from youngest to oldest was tested today, what, vaguely, would the total be, and that would be including the number who have died? This may be an impossible question, but I ask it in case someone has an idea.

I don't think anybody really knows.

This report (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54723962) says that nearly 100,000 people are catching it every day at the moment. It also has a graphic (not very helpful to a visually impaired person) that says there have been 942,000 confirmed cases so far. This is a huge underestimate because not everybody who has had it has been tested.

It also says 46,000 deaths. If we assume that the mortality rate is 1% (as has been claimed), that means 46 million people have had the disease. That seems absurdly high to me but if we take that as the upper estimate and 942,000 as the lower estimate, we are talking about several million people having had the disease.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on October 29, 2020, 11:14:00 AM
I don't think anybody really knows.

This report (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54723962) says that nearly 100,000 people are catching it every day at the moment. It also has a graphic (not very helpful to a visually impaired person) that says there have been 942,000 confirmed cases so far. This is a huge underestimate because not everybody who has had it has been tested.

It also says 46,000 deaths. If we assume that the mortality rate is 1% (as has been claimed), that means 46 million people have had the disease. That seems absurdly high to me but if we take that as the upper estimate and 942,000 as the lower estimate, we are talking about several million people having had the disease.

Weren't antibody tests supposed to give us an indication of how much of the population have contracted the virus? The only problem is is that the antibodies don't last long, especially for the those who had mild or no symptoms.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on October 29, 2020, 12:19:07 PM
Weren't antibody tests supposed to give us an indication of how much of the population have contracted the virus? The only problem is is that the antibodies don't last long, especially for the those who had mild or no symptoms.

There is a government survey for 1 year period - so no results expected for quite some time:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-begins-large-scale-virus-infection-and-antibody-test-study

There was an Imperial College (IC) survey in July with results published in August. It found 6% had been infected (overall for England):
https://www.imperial.nhs.uk/about-us/news/largest-home-antibody-testing-publishes-results

However, as you say, the antibodies don't last long, and the latest IC survey found that the number had dropped since July to 4.4% in Sep:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/27/proportion-of-people-in-england-with-covid-antibodies-has-fallen-study-says

So, the tests can't help that much with trying to determine how many people have had the disease or the number susceptible.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 29, 2020, 12:40:44 PM
....

It also says 46,000 deaths. If we assume that the mortality rate is 1% (as has been claimed), that means 46 million people have had the disease. That seems absurdly high to me but if we take that as the upper estimate and 942,000 as the lower estimate, we are talking about several million people having had the disease.
46,000 is 1 percent of 4.6m not 46m so that makes more sense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on October 29, 2020, 01:33:34 PM
I don't think anybody really knows.

This report (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54723962) says that nearly 100,000 people are catching it every day at the moment. It also has a graphic (not very helpful to a visually impaired person) that says there have been 942,000 confirmed cases so far. This is a huge underestimate because not everybody who has had it has been tested.

It also says 46,000 deaths. If we assume that the mortality rate is 1% (as has been claimed), that means 46 million people have had the disease. That seems absurdly high to me but if we take that as the upper estimate and 942,000 as the lower estimate, we are talking about several million people having had the disease.
Thank you very much for your reply. If the number is towards the higher end, I don't think I would be surprised.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 29, 2020, 01:41:25 PM
Preston Council posted advice stating membership based social clubs "do not sell alcohol, instead they supply alcohol to their members".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-54718001
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 29, 2020, 04:06:12 PM
Being in a level 3 area I'm intrigued as to which pubs and restaurants will reopen with no alcohol and shutting at 6. One of the places that tried to open as a cafe will certainly because they ran as a cafe up till lunch. Can't see restaurants that do lunch and dinner service exclusively finding it worthwhile to open, and the vast majority of pubs will stay shut, I suspect.
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54731245
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 29, 2020, 07:25:22 PM
But the experiment was carried out in a dish - there is no guarantee that the virus will be killed in the mouth.

And as the key route of entry and infection seems to be via specific cells in the nasal passage then killing the virus in the mouth may have no, or very limited effect, in actually preventing infection.
It was stated that mouthwash could not be used to treat the infection. But if it does disable viruses in the mouth that have not yet infected cells, then someone who's used it and then coughs won't emit as much virus into the air, so other people he comes into contact with will inhale less virus.
I've already said that the nose contains a built in virus filter (nasal hair). So if a person blows his nose then he will expel virus. Thus one tactic would be to change hankies often, to prevent virus spreading via a dirty hanky. We can talk more about noses if you like.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 29, 2020, 08:28:28 PM
46,000 is 1 percent of 4.6m not 46m so that makes more sense.
Yes. In fact, it seems quite a reasonable estimate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 29, 2020, 08:29:14 PM
Thank you very much for your reply. If the number is towards the higher end, I don't think I would be surprised.
My high end was wrong by a factor of ten as NS pointed out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 30, 2020, 12:18:47 PM
Some coverage of the corruption in the procurement process


https://goodlawproject.org/news/special-procurement-channels/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on October 30, 2020, 12:39:10 PM
Some coverage of the corruption in the procurement process


https://goodlawproject.org/news/special-procurement-channels/
The Tory slime trail should inform our vote wherever its festering mucoidal nastiness besmirches the environment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 31, 2020, 01:24:06 PM

News conference from Johnson at 4pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-54762048?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 31, 2020, 02:13:26 PM
News conference from Johnson at 4pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-54762048?__twitter_impression=true
Moved to 5pm
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 31, 2020, 04:47:49 PM
Looking like the press conference getting delayed again
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 31, 2020, 05:16:57 PM
Hearing 18.30 now
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 31, 2020, 05:23:00 PM
What an absolute farce. The BBC is already reporting on what the new measures will be, so why can't Boris stand up and tell us? The only thing I can think of is that he's actually going to row back some of the measures because of political pressure from his MPs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 31, 2020, 05:55:25 PM
What an absolute farce. The BBC is already reporting on what the new measures will be, so why can't Boris stand up and tell us? The only thing I can think of is that he's actually going to row back some of the measures because of political pressure from his MPs.
I am clinging to the hope that it's about working on the details of increased financial support.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 31, 2020, 06:45:39 PM
Will Boris bugger Strictly? Given all of the measures have already been leaked, despite that being a bad thing according to the hypocrites, this is looking a joke.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 31, 2020, 07:10:58 PM
And as ever farcically presented. Good that furlough has been extended but I watch Johnson appear to read out from notes and if that was written, it was written by an idiot and read out by fool.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on October 31, 2020, 08:18:27 PM
And as ever farcically presented. Good that furlough has been extended but I watch Johnson appear to read out from notes and if that was written, it was written by an idiot and read out by fool.
     



After tonight, is it any wonder that he is seen by an increasing number as an inconvenience at best, a liability at worst?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 02, 2020, 07:34:14 PM
Meanwhile in Barcelona


https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/nov/02/pianist-plays-eternal-flame-during-violent-anti-lockdown-protest-in-barcelona-video
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 04, 2020, 04:24:35 PM

Hmm...

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/04/tory-linked-firm-involved-in-testing-failure-awarded-new-347m-covid-contract?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other&__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 05, 2020, 01:26:44 PM
Meanwhile in Barcelona


https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/nov/02/pianist-plays-eternal-flame-during-violent-anti-lockdown-protest-in-barcelona-video

Was he hoping they'd stop fighting each other and turn on him instead?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SweetPea on November 05, 2020, 02:09:59 PM
Is there anyone here who thinks the second lockdown should not be happening?

I've thought about the current situation a lot and have come to the conclusion some things do not add-up.
For example, when I visit my hairdresser I cannot even enter the salon before my temperature is taken; the chairs, working surfaces and even the floor is constantly disinfected; in fact the whole place wreaks (not unpleasantly, though) of disinfectant and yet the business has had to close.

The first lockdown was understandable, we had little knowledge of this new virus and the precautions taken were reasonable, at the time. Now, the apparent 'cure' is most certainly as bad as the dreaded lurgy. Many lives are being and have been ruined through lack of income enabling a domino effect. Mortgages and rents cannot be paid hence some are having to sell their homes; some are now homeless. The affect on mental health has resulted in people becoming depressed and suicide rates are higher than they have ever been.
Domestic violence has increased.

Is all this disaster really worth it?

Why, for example, is tv programme Strictly Come Dancing allowed to continue? Something else that dose not make sense: the contestants are in 'a bubble' with their partners but each partner must surely be in a bubble with their individual families. So these contestants are allowed to have two bubbles?

Why are clothes and shoe shops closed - are clothes and shoes considered not a necessity? Even though sanitised precautions are being taken. Sorry, if you need a winter coat or boots you will have to manage without. Not everyone has the internet.

I've become far more sceptical this second time around. 

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on November 05, 2020, 04:31:35 PM
SweetPPea

Yes, I do see what you mean and yes, I perhaps am more worried about the major damage to the country etc, but then, living in a low rate area and able to manage my life comfortably with all the restrictions, I don't feel qualified to say. Local MP, Sir Desmond Swayne, was one of those who voted No yesterday. He knew it wouldn't make any difference of course, but was prepared to do so.

The big dificulty of course is the selfish idiots who disobey the social distancing, mask wearing and hygiene care common sense behaviours and put people in danger of becoming ill with such a very nasty disease. If it was something more like ordinary flu, then all this could have been dealt with more easily. Although ordinary flu does cause complications in peoplle with underlying conditions, and a number of people die from it every year, I understand that the pain and agony gone through by covid 19 sufferers is fa worse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on November 06, 2020, 07:51:02 AM

Why are clothes and shoe shops closed - are clothes and shoes considered not a necessity? Even though sanitised precautions are being taken. Sorry, if you need a winter coat or boots you will have to manage without. Not everyone has the internet.

They are not a short-term necessity. We can go for a month without buying any new clothes or shoes, but we need to buy food on at least a weekly basis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 06, 2020, 08:23:05 AM
They are not a short-term necessity. We can go for a month without buying any new clothes or shoes, but we need to buy food on at least a weekly basis.
What if you have a kid that has grown out of shoes or clothes?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 06, 2020, 08:24:48 AM
Is there anyone here who thinks the second lockdown should not be happening?


I think I've come to the same conclusion. I think the tier system was working. I think the model projections that were shown to us to justify the lockdown were flawed.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8900803/Coronavirus-UK-models-predict-4-000-deaths-day-second-wave.html

Look at when the model lines start, mostly in early October. This is when the models were made. That was before the tier system was in operation. Look at the worst case model - the one with the scary 4,000 deaths per day. It predicts the number of deaths per day will exceed the April peak on......

... 1st November. We are nowhere near that, even one week later.

The only line that bears any relationship to reality is the best case model but even it still has us on an exponential curve upwards and I don't believe the data support that.

The government panicked. They didn't give the tier system a chance to work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 06, 2020, 08:26:01 AM
They are not a short-term necessity. We can go for a month without buying any new clothes or shoes, but we need to buy food on at least a weekly basis.

Every business is an essential business to the people who derive their income from them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 06, 2020, 08:35:33 AM
I think I've come to the same conclusion. I think the tier system was working. I think the model projections that were shown to us to justify the lockdown were flawed.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8900803/Coronavirus-UK-models-predict-4-000-deaths-day-second-wave.html

Look at when the model lines start, mostly in early October. This is when the models were made. That was before the tier system was in operation. Look at the worst case model - the one with the scary 4,000 deaths per day. It predicts the number of deaths per day will exceed the April peak on......

... 1st November. We are nowhere near that, even one week later.

The only line that bears any relationship to reality is the best case model but even it still has us on an exponential curve upwards and I don't believe the data support that.

The government panicked. They didn't give the tier system a chance to work.

I suspect they panicked because they knew they had fucked up over track and trace. I think this was classic ' We must do something. This is something. We must do this.'



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on November 06, 2020, 08:45:17 AM
Although I disagree with Sir DS on the point about religious belief, I think this latest blog is a good one and one which I support. 

https://www.desmondswaynemp.com/blogs/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 06, 2020, 08:47:51 AM
Although I disagree with Sir DS on the point about religious belief, I think this latest blog is a good one and one which I support. 

https://www.desmondswaynemp.com/blogs/
I may agree with his outcome but that's a struggle to read because of the ridiculous hyperbole about motivations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on November 06, 2020, 09:27:40 AM
What if you have a kid that has grown out of shoes or clothes?
You can buy them online.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 06, 2020, 09:35:53 AM
I suspect they panicked because they knew they had fucked up over track and trace. I think this was classic ' We must do something. This is something. We must do this.'
I can't think of any other reason why they would put England back in a full lock down except it being necessary and right now I don't believe it is necessary.

There's also the pressure of a looming Christmas and if any part of the country is seriously restricted then, it's going to look very bad for the government.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 06, 2020, 09:36:45 AM
You can buy them online.
Not that easy to know that the shoes you buy for kids will fit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 06, 2020, 09:56:38 AM
Although I disagree with Sir DS on the point about religious belief, I think this latest blog is a good one and one which I support. 

https://www.desmondswaynemp.com/blogs/

Two flaws that I can see.

Quote
https://www.desmondswaynemp.com/blogs/I am informed by my critics that I have failed to appreciate that the preservation of life itself is more important than liberty

I agree it is fine to risk your life for liberty but you can't ask other people to risk their lives for your liberty.

Quote
the number of daily deaths at 1600 or so daily, is normal -and has been at the normal expected level since June.

This is not good. Given the enormous number of excess deaths earlier in the year, the deaths should currently be below normal. Why? Because a lot of the people who should be dying now actually died in April or May. Coronavirus is still killing a lot of people who wouldn't otherwise have died.

That said, I think the England full lockdown is a panic measure and there were signs that the tier system was working.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on November 06, 2020, 10:49:49 AM
Not that easy to know that the shoes you buy for kids will fit.
https://www.johnlewis.com/content/baby-children/how-to-measure-childrens-feet?intcmp=ic_20200917_measureathome_cp_bab_
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on November 06, 2020, 10:59:35 AM
Not that easy to know that the shoes you buy for kids will fit.
Not only that but how many people do not have access to make purchases on line?
I have quite often wondered - what is the minimum monthlycost of running a phone giving access to buying on line.
I can appreciate that those job seeking would find it easier to do so with such a phone, but if you are very short of money, how on earth  do people manage the monthly expense of some kind of smart phone, especially if they do not have a bank account.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 06, 2020, 11:04:05 AM
Not only that but how many people do not have access to make purchases on line?
I have quite often wondered - what is the minimum monthlycost of running a phone giving access to buying on line.
I can appreciate that those job seeking would find it easier to do so with such a phone, but if you are very short of money, how on earth  do people manage the monthly expense of some kind of smart phone, especially if they do not have a bank account.
I just signed up with BT for my new flat and it's about £25 pcm give or take.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on November 06, 2020, 11:13:40 AM
What if you have a kid that has grown out of shoes or clothes?
Strangely, my local Marks & Spencer is selling clothes and shoes - it's open because it sells food but the clothes sections are also still open.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on November 06, 2020, 11:49:13 AM
Strangely, my local Marks & Spencer is selling clothes and shoes - it's open because it sells food but the clothes sections are also still open.

And my Tesco, which sells mainly food, sells  clothes for women, men and children - including shoes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 06, 2020, 12:07:57 PM
And my Tesco, which sells mainly food, sells  clothes for women, men and children - including shoes.
The point is not that there is no ability to buy baby new shoes but that they are essentials so why should shoe shops and clothes shops have to shut while supermarkets selling shoes and clothes stay open.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on November 06, 2020, 12:29:46 PM
The point is not that there is no ability to buy baby new shoes but that they are essentials so why should shoe shops and clothes shops have to shut while supermarkets selling shoes and clothes stay open.
Yeah I agree - I thought it odd that M&S could sell the stuff while other shops had to shut. And I agree that clothes and shoes are essentials. Apparently there is an estimated £6.8 billion hit over next 4 weeks to the non-essential retailers that have been forced to close. They may get some sales online but low price stores like Primark have said online sales would not work for them as so many clothes bought on-line are returned so the low prices cannot cover the cost of dealing with delivery and returns.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 06, 2020, 02:01:11 PM
How did anyone think this was a good idea?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-54841278
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on November 06, 2020, 02:57:25 PM
Two flaws that I can see.

I agree it is fine to risk your life for liberty but you can't ask other people to risk their lives for your liberty.

This is not good. Given the enormous number of excess deaths earlier in the year, the deaths should currently be below normal. Why? Because a lot of the people who should be dying now actually died in April or May. Coronavirus is still killing a lot of people who wouldn't otherwise have died.

That said, I think the England full lockdown is a panic measure and there were signs that the tier system was working.
Thank you for comments - I would forward them to him as I think he would be interested to read them, but he is probably a bit busy at the moment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on November 06, 2020, 02:58:23 PM
How did anyone think this was a good idea?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-54841278

President Trump.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 06, 2020, 05:01:11 PM
This is quite worrying

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-54842643
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 06, 2020, 06:19:26 PM

Rees Mogg is an eejit


https://www.disabilitynewsservice.com/rees-mogg-accuses-shielding-mps-of-shirking-their-duty-by-working-from-home/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SweetPea on November 06, 2020, 09:13:01 PM
JeremyP and Nearly Sane, I agree that the government panicked and then introduced this second lockdown. They are damned if they do and damned if they don't. I think any party in government at this unprecedented time would be in a similar position.

SusanDoris, I think the MP in your link has it spot-on here: "The choice presented to Parliament by the demands of the scientists for a lockdown (given the circumstances ‘demands’ seems a more appropriate term than ‘advice’) was between the lesser of two evils: the possibility of the NHS being temporarily overwhelmed; as against the certainty of ruined businesses, lost livelihoods, enormous borrowings to be repaid, and shorter lives resulting from the economic damage.
Given the debunking of the ‘project fear’ graphs produced by the chiefs last weekend, it seemed to me that the risk of the NHS being overwhelmed was overstated."

Beyoncé Castle, the problem regarding buying clothes and shoes on-line is not everyone has access to the internet. It does seem ridiculous, as someone mentioned, that supermarkets can sell clothes and shoes but clothes and shoe shops have had to close.

Then there is the incident of trying to fence-in students at Manchester University for their protection.

When you stop and look at some of this craziness it really is non-sense.
 

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 07, 2020, 04:16:14 PM
Rees Mogg is an eejit


https://www.disabilitynewsservice.com/rees-mogg-accuses-shielding-mps-of-shirking-their-duty-by-working-from-home/
We really need somebody who is aware of the invention of the electric telegraph and subsequent developments to be the leader ofd the House.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 07, 2020, 11:53:08 PM
More hmm....


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/vaccine-tsar-kate-bingham-runs-up-670-000-pr-bill-sjxmrz2bx
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 08, 2020, 12:54:53 PM
More hmm....


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/vaccine-tsar-kate-bingham-runs-up-670-000-pr-bill-sjxmrz2bx

The whole thing looks like a waste of money but this sentence:

Quote
It means each consultant is on the equivalent of £167,000 a year

is false. Given the numbers, what is probably happening is that the consulting firm is being paid about £800 per day for each consultant. In my industry, that would be a good rate but not exorbitant. The consultant would expect to take home about one third of that depending on whether the rate includes or excludes expenses.

It's probable that the government is paying a fair market rate for them, if these people are essential to getting the job done. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like they are.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on November 08, 2020, 01:05:42 PM
JeremyP and Nearly Sane, I agree that the government panicked and then introduced this second lockdown. They are damned if they do and damned if they don't. I think any party in government at this unprecedented time would be in a similar position.
...

We've known from the start that lockdowns would be problematic and could not be tolerated for long periods. The need for further lockdowns was also predicted. Obviously, these would depend on the effectiveness of the first, and the development of effective test+trace, vaccines, treatments and some kind of shielding system. 

The government was pushed into the current 4-week "break" as they ignored all advice or suggestions that would have enabled an earlier, shorter one. So, we have once again ended up  with a panic measure with all the associated inconsistencies, errors and unneeded hardship. 

I think they should be planning now for one in Jan or Feb. If we don't need it then or can apply one on a regional basis, fine - we can do that - as long as we are prepared. In between lockdowns we can maintain some semblance of normality.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 09, 2020, 05:15:10 PM
Well this is a cheerier press conference, and it's helped Johnson sound a bit more coherent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 10, 2020, 12:07:56 PM
 A Level exams cancelled in Wales for 2021 - will be marked by course assessment. Feels like the right decision made at the right time


 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54888376
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 10, 2020, 12:13:09 PM
A Level exams cancelled in Wales for 2021 - will be marked by course assessment. Feels like the right decision made at the right time


 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54888376
Wrong decision.

In fact, it is clear from the fiasco that ensued, it would have been better to hold the exams last year too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on November 10, 2020, 01:45:51 PM
From the Hate-Mail - even they are glad to see the back of Trump.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/spotlight/hallelujah-a-covid-19-vaccine-a-sane-man-in-the-white-house/ar-BB1aQKfv?ocid=msedgntp
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 10, 2020, 05:51:04 PM
Cancellations in the Women's Rugby 6 Nations because of the Covid restrictions. Can only think this will be repeated in other sports.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/54887172
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 10, 2020, 09:38:59 PM
Wrong decision.

In fact, it is clear from the fiasco that ensued, it would have been better to hold the exams last year too.
I think this is a logical error that the fiasco was not taking into account the impact of decision last time so that applies this time.
 There were many people calling that issue out as needing understanding and dealing with. That those decisions were badly handled is a hindsight ad consequentiam, but then you are arguing that no change can be made to what happened.

This is giving some certainty to the students now rather than waiting, and allows for the mess before to be avoided.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 11, 2020, 05:17:22 PM
I think this is a logical error that the fiasco was not taking into account the impact of decision last time so that applies this time.
 There were many people calling that issue out as needing understanding and dealing with. That those decisions were badly handled is a hindsight ad consequentiam, but then you are arguing that no change can be made to what happened.

This is giving some certainty to the students now rather than waiting, and allows for the mess before to be avoided.

There was no good reason o cancel the exams last time. It was just panic. And that's what happened in Wales this time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 12, 2020, 09:24:43 AM
Cheerier headline than the details merit

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54914410
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on November 12, 2020, 09:48:03 AM
Cheerier headline than the details merit

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54914410

A ludicrous headline. Not sure all those people losing their jobs will find much cheer in this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 12, 2020, 11:12:29 AM
Cheerier headline than the details merit

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54914410

Excellent news. As long as we can maintain the growth and not have another lockdown in the fourth quarter...

... oh.

Actually, there is one aspect in which it is quite good news. It seems like, given relaxation of the social distancing rules, the economy will recover. Thus, if the vaccine(s) work, we will not be facing a long depression.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 12, 2020, 11:20:06 AM
Excellent news. As long as we can maintain the growth and not have another lockdown in the fourth quarter...

... oh.

Actually, there is one aspect in which it is quite good news. It seems like, given relaxation of the social distancing rules, the economy will recover. Thus, if the vaccine(s) work, we will not be facing a long depression.
Probably not the best time to be leaving a major trading block with no deal though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 12, 2020, 11:26:52 AM
Probably not the best time to be leaving a major trading block with no deal though.

Don't be so downhearted. Leaving the EU gives us lots of opportunities to do trade deals with countries that would definitely prioritise us because they've got nothing else to worry about. Take the USA, for instance, there's no pandemic there and the president will definitely do the greatest trade deal in the World with us as soon as he starts his second term...

... oh.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 12, 2020, 12:42:01 PM
Well that went well....

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/11/11/seadream-yacht-club-ends-first-caribbean-cruise-after-positive-test/6253380002/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 12, 2020, 07:29:19 PM

'Bookshop, the new, ‘ethical’ alternative to Amazon, sells £415,000 worth of books in opening week'

https://inews.co.uk/news/consumer/bookshop-amazon-alternative-buy-books-independent-local-shop-sales-first-week-754265?ito=social_ifb_theipaper&fbclid=IwAR30lnN9QS_MUb-NVSDneNkDv6O3URACWnECRfUXMBOF8s6RDVZiEqiD_xc
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 12, 2020, 10:01:18 PM
MP with cancer not able to take part in debate on cancer because Rees Mogg is a prick.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-12/u-k-lawmaker-with-cancer-excluded-from-debate-on-cancer
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on November 15, 2020, 02:21:49 PM
Our youngest daughter has just phoned to say that her son 14 and daughter 12 are having to self isolate as children in their classes have got the virus! Fortunately for us we have only been in contact with them by phone for quite a while.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 15, 2020, 06:19:39 PM
From the BMJ - strong stuff


https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4425?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_term=hootsuite&utm_content=sme&utm_campaign=usage
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 15, 2020, 07:30:44 PM
Well that went well....

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/11/11/seadream-yacht-club-ends-first-caribbean-cruise-after-positive-test/6253380002/
Honestly, I thought the cruise industry was finished even with the end of the pandemic. To take a cruise now is crazy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on November 15, 2020, 09:00:47 PM
So our PM is having to self-isolate again:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54954698

Cummings got his revenge in quickly  ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on November 16, 2020, 05:09:11 PM
Never let it be said the Germans don't have a sense of humour.

https://youtu.be/iZgmIx3FmKc

That one ad has more persuasive power than anything Johnson and co have managed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 16, 2020, 05:17:45 PM
Looking very like Glasgow and surrounding areas will be going into Tier 4.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on November 16, 2020, 07:35:51 PM
For all the people (not necessarily here) who thought Sweden got it right.
https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1328045594099724289?s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 17, 2020, 11:41:28 AM
For all the people (not necessarily here) who thought Sweden got it right.
https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1328045594099724289?s=19
They're even worse than the UK

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?country=GBR~SYR~SWE&region=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 17, 2020, 02:54:07 PM
And I am now in level 4. Or will be from 6pm Friday


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54974855
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 17, 2020, 04:13:59 PM
Just ffs!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-54974373?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 17, 2020, 05:15:24 PM
People dying of Covid not believing in Covid


https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/526204-south-dakota-nurse-says-many-dying-patients-still-insist-covid-19-not?amp#click=https://t.co/iHkASGblYK
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on November 19, 2020, 01:48:29 PM
Three mink farms in Ireland are going to cull the animals as they can spread the virus. In this day and age we don't require coats made from animal fur, especially if farming the animals causes problems for humans!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on November 19, 2020, 02:23:32 PM
I thought I saw something in the corner of my eye the other day about mink and Coronavirus, so that was it. I agree with you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 20, 2020, 10:49:10 AM
I thought I saw something in the corner of my eye the other day about mink and Coronavirus, so that was it. I agree with you.
That was probably about the mink farms in Denmark. They've decided to cull all the mink being farmed there (about 15 million). Bad news for the mink and everybody who earned a living by farming them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 20, 2020, 10:56:16 AM
That was probably about the mink farms in Denmark. They've decided to cull all the mink being farmed there (about 15 million). Bad news for the mink and everybody who earned a living by farming them.
Bad news for the agricultural minister too as they have resigned, and possibly the Prime Minister

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/denmark-mink-cull-prime-minister-faces-calls-to-resign-over-illegal-killings/ar-BB1b8tji
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on November 20, 2020, 11:26:40 AM
And I am now in level 4. Or will be from 6pm Friday


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54974855

And you really wanted to visit the tatoo parlour.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 20, 2020, 11:42:51 AM

And you really wanted to visit the tatoo parlour.....
We get out of Tier 4 on 12th Dec. We are likely if we do move out of it to move into Tier 3, and I don't see that being changed before Christmas. That will mean that any pub not selling meals will remain shut. All other pubs and restaurants will only be open till 6pm and not selling alcohol, Given many pubs and restaurants will normally do around a third of their trade in the period between now and Christmas, this is going to brutal for the hospitality industry.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on November 20, 2020, 02:24:25 PM
We get out of Tier 4 on 12th Dec. We are likely if we do move out of it to move into Tier 3, and I don't see that being changed before Christmas. That will mean that any pub not selling meals will remain shut. All other pubs and restaurants will only be open till 6pm and not selling alcohol, Given many pubs and restaurants will normally do around a third of their trade in the period between now and Christmas, this is going to brutal for the hospitality industry.
   


And to make things even worse, places of worship can remain open, albeit with restrictions, meaning the congregation will have to bring sleeping pills on Sunday, since the minister's on leave and he's told me to torture them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 20, 2020, 05:25:00 PM
Some positive news in the latest ONS survey

Corona virus survey (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/20november2020)

The rate of infections in England in the week up to 14th November has "levelled off".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on November 20, 2020, 06:06:33 PM
Had a couple of close calls this week. First my girlfriend had to go for a test after developing symptoms, so I had to isolate with her until she got her results (which were negative), and now just got a message that someone I just played pool with yesterday had a close friend who tested positive, so I possibly have been exposed.

The area I live in, the capital area, has taken on new restrictions after declaring the virus is now at a spreading stage. Hopefully they will now bite and infections will slowdown again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 21, 2020, 11:14:53 PM
English tiers being adjusted


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55029401
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 22, 2020, 03:37:34 PM

The Great Reset

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/55017002
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on November 23, 2020, 08:50:16 AM
Irresponsible, selfish and arrogant.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/22/let-us-disobey-churches-defy-lockdown-with-secret-meetings
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 23, 2020, 12:03:02 PM

Heartwarming,and desperately sad

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/thanksgiving-grandma-celebrates-with-jamal-hilton-covid-19/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on November 23, 2020, 12:18:37 PM
Irresponsible, selfish and arrogant.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/22/let-us-disobey-churches-defy-lockdown-with-secret-meetings

I agree. What a nasty piece of work. >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 23, 2020, 02:11:59 PM
And due to the economic effects you can own BRitish Airways pasta dishes (amongst other things)


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55043907
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 23, 2020, 06:03:39 PM
More positive news

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55040635

The Oxford vaccine works.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on November 24, 2020, 11:20:37 AM
Anti-anti-vaccinator* petition. (https://www.change.org/p/facebook-take-down-stop-mandatory-vaccinations)
*I refuse to call them "anti-vaxxers", because that's what they want to be called: they think that giving themselves an eccentrically-spelled abbreviation normalises them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on November 24, 2020, 12:06:07 PM
Anti-anti-vaccinator* petition. (https://www.change.org/p/facebook-take-down-stop-mandatory-vaccinations)
*I refuse to call them "anti-vaxxers", because that's what they want to be called: they think that giving themselves an eccentrically-spelled abbreviation normalises them.

Twats, the lot of them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on November 24, 2020, 08:49:20 PM
Some dickhead on Twitter wrote "Covic is one big lie". I couldn't help myself and answered "Covic? Isn't he a tennis player?"

Though my Twitter profile is mainly about football, especially West Ham, sometimes I'll reply to idiots in the political sphere. Today I wrote a few. Some serious and sarcastic. You can see my profile here (or if you're just curious to see what I look like).

https://mobile.twitter.com/pauljk75
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 24, 2020, 08:58:37 PM
Some dickhead on Twitter wrote "Covic is one big lie". I couldn't help myself and answered "Covic? Isn't he a tennis player?"
My hat is doffed
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 25, 2020, 07:12:49 PM
Atrocious decision


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-55071975
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 25, 2020, 07:36:43 PM
Trail of incompetency, bits of corruption


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55061183
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 26, 2020, 07:44:29 AM
Zombie mink


https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/25/culled-mink-rise-from-the-dead-denmark-coronavirus?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other&__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 26, 2020, 08:35:30 AM

And the impact on women and unpaid care work

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-55016842
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 26, 2020, 01:25:58 PM
Looks like there are questions over the claims made for the Oxford vaccine

https://www.ft.com/content/4583fbf8-b47c-4e78-8253-22efcfa4903a

In particular, their claim for 90% effective with the 1/2 dose and full dose treatment is questionable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 26, 2020, 07:31:42 PM
While net worth does not mean cash in hand, the following stat is mind boggling: If Jeff Bezos gave every Amazon employee $105,000, then he would worth the same as he was pre Covid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 26, 2020, 11:05:46 PM
Privileging religions to kill



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55069040
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on November 27, 2020, 06:52:08 AM
Privileging religions to kill

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55069040
Desperately stupid, sad, etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on November 27, 2020, 10:46:53 AM
CRAZY!  >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 27, 2020, 11:38:22 AM
Just bizarre

https://www.kentonline.co.uk/dover/news/amp/brexit-will-spark-rise-in-dogging-213622/?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on November 27, 2020, 11:59:40 AM
Just bizarre

https://www.kentonline.co.uk/dover/news/amp/brexit-will-spark-rise-in-dogging-213622/?__twitter_impression=true

Got to fill the time somehow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 27, 2020, 12:05:07 PM
Wtf!


https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/oxford-university-astrazeneca-vaccine-uk-flag-union-jack_uk_5fbfdd14c5b68ca87f827a0e/?ncid=other_twitter_cooo9wqtham&utm_campaign=share_twitter&__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on November 27, 2020, 12:57:00 PM
Is there no end to their bullshittery?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 27, 2020, 01:03:18 PM
Is there no end to their bullshittery?
Yes the Huffington Post is absolutely full of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on November 27, 2020, 02:05:37 PM
Wtf!


https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/oxford-university-astrazeneca-vaccine-uk-flag-union-jack_uk_5fbfdd14c5b68ca87f827a0e/?ncid=other_twitter_cooo9wqtham&utm_campaign=share_twitter&__twitter_impression=true


But why? Though the Oxford vaccine was highly regarded and was one of the front runners in the race...it has had severe problems.  Pfizer and Moderna have beaten it to the post.

Also, there is  considerable confusion on whether its efficacy is 62% or 90 % or what  exactly.  There seems to have been some mistake on the doses given to some people which thereby brought out the higher efficacy. All very uncertain.

They plan to redo the trials I think.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 27, 2020, 02:06:15 PM
Yes the Huffington Post is absolutely full of it.
  Well you could try the Independent


https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/coronavirus-downing-street-tried-to-have-oxford-vaccine-branded-with-union-flag/ar-BB1bpLum


Or The Guardian


https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/no-10-reportedly-wanted-union-flag-on-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-kits/ar-BB1bq8mN

Or the Mirror

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/no10-asked-for-union-jack-flag-branding-on-new-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine/ar-BB1bpYUI

Others are available

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 27, 2020, 02:07:11 PM

But why? Though the Oxford vaccine was highly regarded and was one of the front runners in the race...it has had severe problems.  Pfizer and Moderna have beaten it to the post.

Also, there is  considerable confusion on whether its efficacy is 62% or 90 % or what  exactly.  There seems to have been some mistake on the doses given to some people which thereby brought out the higher efficacy. All very uncertain.

They plan to redo the trials I think.
I think the request predates the issues with the results
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on November 27, 2020, 02:14:41 PM
I think the request predates the issues with the results

Well...ok.  They will probably withdraw the request in a hurry.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 27, 2020, 07:46:41 PM
  Well you could try the Independent


https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/coronavirus-downing-street-tried-to-have-oxford-vaccine-branded-with-union-flag/ar-BB1bpLum


Or The Guardian


https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/no-10-reportedly-wanted-union-flag-on-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-kits/ar-BB1bq8mN

Or the Mirror

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/no10-asked-for-union-jack-flag-branding-on-new-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine/ar-BB1bpYUI

Others are available
There are no plans to put Union Jacks on doses. Somebody might have suggested it, but clearly the idea was never taken seriously.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 27, 2020, 07:48:43 PM

But why? Though the Oxford vaccine was highly regarded and was one of the front runners in the race...it has had severe problems.  Pfizer and Moderna have beaten it to the post.

Also, there is  considerable confusion on whether its efficacy is 62% or 90 % or what  exactly.  There seems to have been some mistake on the doses given to some people which thereby brought out the higher efficacy. All very uncertain.

They plan to redo the trials I think.
What are the severe problems? I agree that the 90% figure is suspect, but they’ll just do more trials to get to the bottom of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 27, 2020, 08:21:31 PM
There are no plans to put Union Jacks on doses. Somebody might have suggested it, but clearly the idea was never taken seriously.
Congratulations for agreeing on what was said
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on November 27, 2020, 11:47:48 PM
  Well you could try the Independent


https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/coronavirus-downing-street-tried-to-have-oxford-vaccine-branded-with-union-flag/ar-BB1bpLum


Or The Guardian


https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/no-10-reportedly-wanted-union-flag-on-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-kits/ar-BB1bq8mN

Or the Mirror

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/no10-asked-for-union-jack-flag-branding-on-new-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine/ar-BB1bpYUI

Others are available
Union fucking JACK! This pseudo-pedantry of calling it the Union Flag if it's not flying from a ship pisses me off no end. It is perfectly correct to call it the Union Jack wherever it is flown or portrayed. https://www.flaginstitute.org/wp/british-flags-2/the-union-jack-or-the-union-flag/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 28, 2020, 08:34:22 AM

And Marina Hyde

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/27/boris-johnson-false-hope-lockdown-prime-minister-tier-system?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 28, 2020, 09:40:06 AM
Congratulations for agreeing on what was said

So why are you all getting so outraged about it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 28, 2020, 09:41:56 AM
Union fucking JACK! This pseudo-pedantry of calling it the Union Flag if it's not flying from a ship pisses me off no end.
It's not pedantry. It's perfectly acceptable to call it either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 28, 2020, 09:53:31 AM
So why are you all getting so outraged about it?
Idiocy
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on November 28, 2020, 09:57:59 AM
Union fucking JACK! This pseudo-pedantry of calling it the Union Flag if it's not flying from a ship pisses me off no end. It is perfectly correct to call it the Union Jack wherever it is flown or portrayed. https://www.flaginstitute.org/wp/british-flags-2/the-union-jack-or-the-union-flag/

I do hope that you are taking blood-pressure medicine. ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on November 28, 2020, 10:40:38 AM
Something that has been worrying and annoying me for sometime is this:

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/coronavirus-stopped-talking-about-people-dying_uk_5fbf8102c5b6e4b1ea48f313

And I'm sure that Maradona was a good footballer, but did not the 696 reported deaths on the same day in the UK count for at least something?

This country currently makes me want to vomit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on November 28, 2020, 10:44:32 AM
Union fucking JACK! This pseudo-pedantry of calling it the Union Flag if it's not flying from a ship pisses me off no end. It is perfectly correct to call it the Union Jack wherever it is flown or portrayed. https://www.flaginstitute.org/wp/british-flags-2/the-union-jack-or-the-union-flag/

What a very silly fuss about absolutely nothing! ::) Union Jack, Union Flag, who cares, I don't! There is so much else with which to concern ourselves at present.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on November 28, 2020, 11:28:01 AM
I admit to ignorance & never thought about it much but in the back of my mind the union flag was the white one with a red cross that you see around World Cup times and union Jack was the usual red white and blue one  :-[. I've learned something today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on November 28, 2020, 12:03:12 PM
It's not pedantry. It's perfectly acceptable to call it either.
The pedantry is in carefully calling it the Union flag. Until 20-30 years ago, it was always called the Union Jack, but then some anal-retentive wanker decided, wrongly, that it was only correct to call it that if it was flying on a ship, and lots of other people, sheep-like, followed suit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on November 28, 2020, 12:06:59 PM
I admit to ignorance & never thought about it much but in the back of my mind the union flag was the white one with a red cross that you see around World Cup times and union Jack was the usual red white and blue one  :-[. I've learned something today.
The red-cross-on-white is the (unofficial) flag of England, and is emphatically not the Union Jack or Flag, because the word "union" refers to the union of England, Scotland and (Northern) Ireland (and Wales, but Wales isn't represented in the flag).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on November 28, 2020, 12:09:46 PM
The red-cross-on-white is the (unofficial) flag of England, and is emphatically not the Union Jack or Flag, because the word "union" refers to the union of England, Scotland and (Northern) Ireland (and Wales, but Wales isn't represented in the flag).

The term Union Flag makes more sense than Union Jack, imo.

Anyway this is way off topic. Let's get back to much more important things like the discussing the topic of this thread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 28, 2020, 05:44:28 PM
The pedantry is in carefully calling it the Union flag. Until 20-30 years ago, it was always called the Union Jack, but then some anal-retentive wanker decided, wrongly, that it was only correct to call it that if it was flying on a ship, and lots of other people, sheep-like, followed suit.

How do you carefully call something the "Union Flag". The term is not incorrect, so why shouldn't people use it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on November 28, 2020, 08:14:48 PM
The pedantry is in carefully calling it the Union flag. Until 20-30 years ago, it was always called the Union Jack, but then some anal-retentive wanker decided, wrongly, that it was only correct to call it that if it was flying on a ship, and lots of other people, sheep-like, followed suit.

Rubbish. I was first told this when I was in the Scouts - a damn sight more than thirty years ago. And I have heard it mentioned/discussed etc many times.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on November 28, 2020, 08:47:00 PM
The red-cross-on-white is the (unofficial) flag of England, and is emphatically not the Union Jack or Flag, because the word "union" refers to the union of England, Scotland and (Northern) Ireland (and Wales, but Wales isn't represented in the flag).
Oh yeah the Welsh have a dragon. I'm not up on flags, do Sctoland have a thistle?

How did we get to ths from Coronavirus?

Here's a Scottish flag:- https://flagsandmore.co.uk/flags/scotland-st-andrews-saltire-national-flag?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIs6-Yi46m7QIVMYBQBh1Cow25EAQYBSABEgLyCfD_BwE
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on November 29, 2020, 08:00:36 AM
How do you carefully call something the "Union Flag". The term is not incorrect, so why shouldn't people use it?
Because they probably think, incorrectly, that "Union Jack" is wrong, though that was what it was always called until 20-30 years ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on November 29, 2020, 08:26:36 AM
Because they probably think, incorrectly, that "Union Jack" is wrong, though that was what it was always called until 20-30 years ago.

Why are you so obsessed with a flipping flag? ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on November 29, 2020, 09:37:00 AM
Why are you so obsessed with a flipping flag? ::)
I'm not - I just get irritated by pseudo=pedantry.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 29, 2020, 05:26:53 PM
I'm not - I just get irritated by pseudo=pedantry.
Pseudo pedantry would be correcting people for calling it the Union Jack, not calling it the Union Flag, however carefully.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on November 30, 2020, 03:29:01 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55128305

As from this Friday Welsh pubs will not be permitted to serve alcohol and have to close by 6pm. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on November 30, 2020, 06:40:33 PM
What's the point of a pub being open if it can't serve alcohol?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 30, 2020, 06:41:35 PM
What's the point of a pub being open if it can't serve alcohol?
I doubt many will.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on November 30, 2020, 10:49:14 PM
https://youtu.be/7bIJV8gaBK4
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on December 02, 2020, 09:40:56 AM




Congratulations guys! You people in Britain are going to start getting vaccinated (Pfizer) against the Covid 19 as early as next week.  Good going! :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 02, 2020, 01:44:01 PM



Congratulations guys! You people in Britain are going to start getting vaccinated (Pfizer) against the Covid 19 as early as next week.  Good going! :)

"You people"? It will take a long time before they get round to the likes of me, not being an NHS or care worker or having any conditions that put me in a high risk group.

Still, it's an absolutely fantastic bit of news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on December 02, 2020, 03:22:29 PM
And even though it is fantastic news, the government (Matt Hancock in this case) just can't help but try to gild the lily by lying:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/02/hancock-brexit-helped-uk-to-speedy-approval-of-covid-vaccine
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 02, 2020, 03:31:16 PM



Congratulations guys! You people in Britain are going to start getting vaccinated (Pfizer) against the Covid 19 as early as next week.  Good going! :)
Well only the most vulnerable will be vaccinated anytime soon.

And I suspect most of us wont be receiving the Pfizer vaccine as the UK hasn't bought much of this one - only enough for 20 million people to be immunised. Most of us, I imagine will be getting the Oxford/AZ vaccine, which is cheaper and the government has bought far more doses.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on December 02, 2020, 03:37:22 PM
Whilst the  Covid-19 vaccine seems like excellent news, I just hope they have thoroughly tested it for bad side effects. The thalidomide vaccine was given to pregnant women to relieve morning sickness, and we all know how that panned out. :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 02, 2020, 03:41:29 PM
Whilst the  Covid-19 vaccine seems like excellent news, I just hope they have thoroughly tested it for bad side effects. The thalidomide vaccine was given to pregnant women to relieve morning sickness, and we all know how that panned out. :o
It has been. And there is a world of difference between this vaccine and thalidomide, which isn't a vaccine at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on December 02, 2020, 03:48:41 PM



Does it make sense to avoid vaccinating those who have already contracted covid?  I wouldn't think so.....but some minister in India has been saying such things. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on December 02, 2020, 03:53:23 PM


Does it make sense to avoid vaccinating those who have already contracted covid?  I wouldn't think so.....but some minister in India has been saying such things.

People who have had flu still get the vaccine, as you don't get lifelong immunity, I would have thought that might be the case with the covid vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on December 02, 2020, 03:58:01 PM



Yes...I agree with that. Even if you want to immediately save on vaccines....you can't be testing people for antibodies before vaccinating them...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 02, 2020, 04:31:54 PM


Does it make sense to avoid vaccinating those who have already contracted covid?  I wouldn't think so.....but some minister in India has been saying such things.
Yes it does as it isn't clear how long any immunity actually lasts.

Also you'd need to be sure that people really had had it, rather than merely thinking they had (without a definitive test result) and deciding therefore that they didn't ned to get the vaccine. So much better to vaccinate everyone possible, noting that there will be a proportion of people who cannot have the vaccine due to underlying health issues plus those that refuse to have it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 02, 2020, 09:48:25 PM
Apparently a superspreader event


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/dec/02/new-orleans-swingers-convention-naughty-in-nawlins-coronavirus?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3xNn2_BWKte_oa5GuH_sfnCx8zsSQKn6ugOtuK4sIkXijnEou736gMj84#Echobox=1606936628
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on December 02, 2020, 11:01:15 PM
Whilst the  Covid-19 vaccine seems like excellent news, I just hope they have thoroughly tested it for bad side effects. The thalidomide vaccine was given to pregnant women to relieve morning sickness, and we all know how that panned out. :o
Thalidomide isn't a vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on December 03, 2020, 12:01:45 AM
I expect Littleroses didn't intend to describe it as a vaccine; Thalidomide (Thalomid or Distival) is an excellent drug for treating many serious conditions. It was obviously not tested on pregnant women and was prescribed to them for hg with some awful results. Since then far more care has been taken when prescribing anything for a pregnant woman.

Pregnant woman are not going to be given the Covid-19 vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 03, 2020, 08:54:25 AM
I expect Littleroses didn't intend to describe it as a vaccine; Thalidomide (Thalomid or Distival) is an excellent drug for treating many serious conditions. It was obviously not tested on pregnant women and was prescribed to them for hg with some awful results. Since then far more care has been taken when prescribing anything for a pregnant woman.

Pregnant woman are not going to be given the Covid-19 vaccine.
That's correct.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on December 03, 2020, 10:56:46 AM
Yes it does as it isn't clear how long any immunity actually lasts.

Also you'd need to be sure that people really had had it, rather than merely thinking they had (without a definitive test result) and deciding therefore that they didn't ned to get the vaccine. So much better to vaccinate everyone possible, noting that there will be a proportion of people who cannot have the vaccine due to underlying health issues plus those that refuse to have it.


You mean..No, it doesn't make sense!  Yes, I agree that everyone should be vaccinated.  The minister was probably thinking in terms of rationing vaccines to the extent possible.   Never mind.  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 03, 2020, 11:38:28 AM

You mean..No, it doesn't make sense!  Yes, I agree that everyone should be vaccinated.  The minister was probably thinking in terms of rationing vaccines to the extent possible.   Never mind.  :)
It makes sense to vaccinate everyone regardless of whether they have previously tested positive for covid or think they might have been infected previously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 03, 2020, 03:10:16 PM
And even though it is fantastic news, the government (Matt Hancock in this case) just can't help but try to gild the lily by lying:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/02/hancock-brexit-helped-uk-to-speedy-approval-of-covid-vaccine

It's getting worse

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55175162

Quote from: Some Twat
I just reckon we've got the very best people in this country and we've obviously got the best medical regulator, much better than the French have, much better than the Belgians have, much better than the Americans have.

That doesn't surprise me at all, because we're a much better country than every single one of them.

Frankly I'm embarrassed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 03, 2020, 03:48:36 PM

You mean..No, it doesn't make sense!  Yes, I agree that everyone should be vaccinated.  The minister was probably thinking in terms of rationing vaccines to the extent possible.   Never mind.  :)

If you needed to ration vaccines, it might make sense not to vaccinate people who have already had the disease (if you ca be sure who they are), but there isn't going to be a shortage for long, at least not if the Astra Zenica vaccine gets approval. The bigger concern is likely to be logistics i.e. how quickly can we get everybody vaccinated. That's why we will prioritise certain groups of people e.g. healthcare workers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on December 03, 2020, 03:50:36 PM
"I just reckon we've got the very best people in this country and we've obviously got the best medical regulator, much better than the French have, much better than the Belgians have, much better than the Americans have.

That doesn't surprise me at all, because we're a much better country than every single one of them."

 

With an American vaccine....?! ???  The guy is pretty patriotic....I must say. :D

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 03, 2020, 03:53:50 PM
"I just reckon we've got the very best people in this country and we've obviously got the best medical regulator, much better than the French have, much better than the Belgians have, much better than the Americans have.

That doesn't surprise me at all, because we're a much better country than every single one of them."

 

With an American vaccine....?! ???  The guy is pretty patriotic....I must say. :D
An American vaccine, manufactured in Belgium.

Just pathetic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on December 03, 2020, 03:55:54 PM
If you needed to ration vaccines, it might make sense not to vaccinate people who have already had the disease (if you ca be sure who they are), but there isn't going to be a shortage for long, at least not if the Astra Zenica vaccine gets approval. The bigger concern is likely to be logistics i.e. how quickly can we get everybody vaccinated. That's why we will prioritise certain groups of people e.g. healthcare workers.

Yes...we are going to prioritize too. But we are unlikely to get the Pfizer one. We haven't pre-bought it, I think.  Also, the - 70 degrees requirement is very difficult to manage in India.  We are waiting for the Oxford one or the Indian ones which could be available early next year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 03, 2020, 03:58:45 PM
An American vaccine, manufactured in Belgium.

Just pathetic.

I wonder how many lives would have been saved if the various countries of the World had been able to put aside their petty squabbling about who's best and put together a global response to a global pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 03, 2020, 04:53:42 PM
Yes...we are going to prioritize too. But we are unlikely to get the Pfizer one. We haven't pre-bought it, I think.  Also, the - 70 degrees requirement is very difficult to manage in India.  We are waiting for the Oxford one or the Indian ones which could be available early next year.
Yes that's right - the Pfizer is less likely to be useful in certain countries due both to the logistics linked to storage temperature, but also due to cost. The Oxford/AZ one may be better and cheaper in that regard but current data suggest it may not be quite as effective and is a few weeks behind the others in terms of results and approval.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 03, 2020, 04:56:24 PM
An American vaccine, manufactured in Belgium.

Just pathetic.

John Crace on Gavin Williamson and Jonathan Van Tan


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/03/manchild-gavin-williamson-plumbs-new-depths-of-stupidity-with-vaccine-drivel
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 03, 2020, 08:10:16 PM
Tweet from Grant Shapps


'New Business Traveller exemption: From 4am on Sat 5th Dec high-value business travellers will no longer need to self-isolate when returning to ENGLAND from a country NOT in a travel corridor, allowing more travel to support the economy and jobs. Conditions apply.'

Virus doesn't like business class
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on December 04, 2020, 05:26:31 AM

Fauci has expressed some doubts about the rushed approval in the UK....though he apologized later....

The Moderna vaccine offers immunity for at least 3 months I understand...!  But that is pathetic! Do people have to get a shot after every three months?  ???

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-12-moderna-vaccine-confers-months-immunity.html

What are the long term dangers of the mRNA technology? Can anyone guess knowledgeably?   Are the old methods (weakened viruses) used by the other vaccines possibly more reliable, do you think?


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 04, 2020, 09:44:59 AM
Fauci has expressed some doubts about the rushed approval in the UK....though he apologized later....

The Moderna vaccine offers immunity for at least 3 months I understand...!  But that is pathetic! Do people have to get a shot after every three months?  ???

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-12-moderna-vaccine-confers-months-immunity.html
But that is because the vaccine has only been being tested for a matter of months so all this means is that the volunteers vaccinated a few months ago are still showing immunity at three months because that is as far as we've been able to test so far.

What are the long term dangers of the mRNA technology? Can anyone guess knowledgeably?   Are the old methods (weakened viruses) used by the other vaccines possibly more reliable, do you think?
mRNA is likely to be safer, if anything, as it is more targeted. Regarding reliability - I see no reason why the mRNA vaccines should be less reliable, arguable more so as the basic principle is that the body uses the mRNA to produce the spike protein which then elicits an immune response. So it may provide a stronger and longer immune response to more traditional vaccines that might just inoculate with the spike protein itself which would potentially last for less time in an effective form compared to a situation where the body produces the spike protein for an extended period of time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 04, 2020, 09:46:57 AM
Tweet from Grant Shapps


'New Business Traveller exemption: From 4am on Sat 5th Dec high-value business travellers will no longer need to self-isolate when returning to ENGLAND from a country NOT in a travel corridor, allowing more travel to support the economy and jobs. Conditions apply.'

Virus doesn't like business class
It's worse than that. The business trip has to result in 50 jobs or £100k of business. So I, for example, would not be exempt because my business trips happen after the business has been won and even at my best daily rate it would require me to be abroad for in the region of 100 days or more.

This is purely for top executives on sales trips.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 04, 2020, 09:52:11 AM
Fauci has expressed some doubts about the rushed approval in the UK....though he apologized later....

The Moderna vaccine offers immunity for at least 3 months I understand...!  But that is pathetic! Do people have to get a shot after every three months?  ???
I think you should carefully check out the meaning of "at least".

In this case, all it means is that, so far, after three months, nobody has lost their immunity. They couldn't have had time to find out if it lasts longer yet.

Quote
What are the long term dangers of the mRNA technology? Can anyone guess knowledgeably?   Are the old methods (weakened viruses) used by the other vaccines possibly more reliable, do you think?
My guess (which is not knowledgeable) is that vaccines based on weakened viruses are potential more dangerous than mRNA vaccines. In the early days of developing a polio vaccine there were a couple of attempts that went wrong because the weakened virus was not as weak as had been thought.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on December 04, 2020, 10:15:55 AM
But that is because the vaccine has only been being tested for a matter of months so all this means is that the volunteers vaccinated a few months ago are still showing immunity at three months because that is as far as we've been able to test so far.
mRNA is likely to be safer, if anything, as it is more targeted. Regarding reliability - I see no reason why the mRNA vaccines should be less reliable, arguable more so as the basic principle is that the body uses the mRNA to produce the spike protein which then elicits an immune response. So it may provide a stronger and longer immune response to more traditional vaccines that might just inoculate with the spike protein itself which would potentially last for less time in an effective form compared to a situation where the body produces the spike protein for an extended period of time.


I am not a biologist.....but is there a possibility that the spike protein that is produced in the body will, after some time, no longer be treated as a threat by the immune system which will therefore stop producing anti bodies.  Something like second and third generation immigrants are no longer treated as foreigners.  :D

Sorry but.... just a thought...

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on December 04, 2020, 11:15:34 AM
Why the vaccine is safe and effective, and why we should all get vaccinated, (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/03/the-covid-vaccine-trust-safe-works-political) by an expert.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 04, 2020, 11:26:02 AM
I am not a biologist.....
Well I am.

but is there a possibility that the spike protein that is produced in the body will, after some time, no longer be treated as a threat by the immune system which will therefore stop producing anti bodies.
Not really - it is unlikely that the body will come to treat the spike protein as 'self' and fail to produce an immune response, because that isn't how the immune system functions.

More likely the immune system 'forgets' that it has been challenged with the 'foreign' spike protein previously and is no longer primed to respond to an infection. If that were to happen people who had been vaccinated would lose immunity over time and would therefore become susceptible to develop disease and be infectious to others if they are infested with the virus.

And that is why researchers will be carefully assessing how long immunity lasts following vaccination and will, if necessary, recommend booster inoculations from time to time to maintain immunity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on December 04, 2020, 12:50:15 PM
Well I am.
Not really - it is unlikely that the body will come to treat the spike protein as 'self' and fail to produce an immune response, because that isn't how the immune system functions.

More likely the immune system 'forgets' that it has been challenged with the 'foreign' spike protein previously and is no longer primed to respond to an infection. If that were to happen people who had been vaccinated would lose immunity over time and would therefore become susceptible to develop disease and be infectious to others if they are infested with the virus.

And that is why researchers will be carefully assessing how long immunity lasts following vaccination and will, if necessary, recommend booster inoculations from time to time to maintain immunity.

Thanks... :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 04, 2020, 04:28:17 PM
Marina Hyde



https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/04/idiot-vaccine-triumph-vindication-brexit?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 06, 2020, 11:43:01 AM
Socially non distancing


https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/police-step-in-as-huge-crowds-gather-in-london-and-nottingham/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 06, 2020, 12:33:32 PM
Socially non distancing

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/police-step-in-as-huge-crowds-gather-in-london-and-nottingham/

It's quite simple isn't it? You obey the rules: COVID 19 decreases and you can have your pubs and restaurants and music concerts. You don't obey the rules, COVID 19 increases and these things are taken away from you. It's depressing how many people are so incredibly stupid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 07, 2020, 01:02:34 PM
I am not allowed to travel to Edinburgh...


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55215611
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on December 07, 2020, 01:04:12 PM
I am not allowed to travel to Edinburgh...


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55215611

Need to get yourself a personal train. Problem solved.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 07, 2020, 01:43:39 PM
I am not allowed to travel to Edinburgh...


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55215611

Fortunately, I don't think key workers would be that interested in seeing you, so you don't need to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 07, 2020, 01:49:50 PM
Fortunately, I don't think key workers would be that interested in seeing you, so you don't need to.
Kate and William don't need to either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 07, 2020, 04:09:46 PM
I am not allowed to travel to Edinburgh...


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55215611
Hmm - could be a public relations disaster. Not sure many people will be too impressed that a 'royal train' (at tax-payers expense) still exists in this day and age, and particularly with the current pressures on public finances.

If these royals want to appear to be in touch with normal people why not ask them to travel on an ordinary train, no issue with them traveling first class but what on earth can be the justification for having their own train.

Bit like a couple of months ago when they were in a care home chatting to residents and one of the resident's children was interviewed saying that he hadn't been allowed to visit his mother for months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on December 07, 2020, 04:16:14 PM
Hmm - could be a public relations disaster. Not sure many people will be too impressed that a 'royal train' (at tax-payers expense) still exists in this day and age, and particularly with the current pressures on public finances.

If these royals want to appear to be in touch with normal people why not ask them to travel on an ordinary train, no issue with them traveling first class but what on earth can be the justification for having their own train.

Bit like a couple of months ago when they were in a care home chatting to residents and one of the resident's children was interviewed saying that he hadn't been allowed to visit his mother for months.

From what I've read this nonsense is intended as a 'thank you', and no doubt a few forelock-tugging sycophants will be wheeled out to say how grateful they were.

Perhaps this pair of hangers-on should have decided to stay where there were, like the rest of us have to, and maybe suggest that the key workers they wished to thank might be better compensated with something extra in their pay. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 07, 2020, 04:28:17 PM
Perhaps this pair of hangers-on should have decided to stay where there were, like the rest of us have to, and maybe suggest that the key workers they wished to thank might be better compensated with something extra in their pay.
Indeed, and in the spirit of the times why didn't they arrange to thanks a much wider group of people via a Zoom call, in the manner that the rest of us are doing. I think getting out their hugely expensive train is particularly ill-advised.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on December 07, 2020, 06:07:59 PM
They have done zoom calls. At this time a lot of people will appreciate them making an effort to go around and speak to people in person. It's a three day trip apparently and all the travelling, apart from cars to and from station, will be on the one train. I get that many think they are a waste of space but not all feel like that. This pair are quite popular and put others at ease. If their visits give people a boost it can't be all bad - if they weren't welcome they wouldn't be doing it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 07, 2020, 06:18:00 PM
They have done zoom calls. At this time a lot of people will appreciate them making an effort to go around and speak to people in person. It's a three day trip apparently and all the travelling, apart from cars to and from station, will be on the one train. I get that many think they are a waste of space but not all feel like that. This pair are quite popular and put others at ease. If their visits give people a boost it can't be all bad - if they weren't welcome they wouldn't be doing it.
For the tiny number of people who will actually see them there might get a boost (although I suspect the vaccine will give them infinitely more of a boost), of course, millions of other key workers who wont see them. I'm sorry Robbie there are countless people who have been working their buts off, whether in key roles or to try and keep companies afloat who will not be given a boost by a couple of out of touch privileged elites telling a few nurses and school teachers 'what a fabulous job you do' (so pleased we don't need to use the NHS or state schools!!).

But beyond this the issue of the royal train surely is a PR disaster - if they wanted to travel by train rather than by car or plane (for environmental reasons) guess what - there are scheduled rail services. Apart from the cost (the last time the train was used each journey cost over £60k), it smacks of the royals not wanting to risk traveling on public transport - something that no doubt many of the key workers they want to praise have to do every single day.

I think we are tiring of the carefully stage-managed, sycophantic 'meet the people' royal engagements that are anything but an opportunity to really meet the people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 07, 2020, 06:30:29 PM
It's a three day trip apparently and all the travelling, apart from cars to and from station, will be on the one train.
Well it really must be a PR disaster if the uber-sychophantic Daily Express is gunning for them for using the royal train.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/royal/1369263/royal-train-cost-royal-news-kate-middelton-prince-william-royal-tour-queen-news
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on December 08, 2020, 07:35:41 AM
It's quite simple isn't it? You obey the rules: COVID 19 decreases and you can have your pubs and restaurants and music concerts. You don't obey the rules, COVID 19 increases and these things are taken away from you. It's depressing how many people are so incredibly stupid.
It’s certainly not conducive to the Humanist formulation of the inherent goodness of people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on December 08, 2020, 07:45:15 AM


The covid vaccinations have begun....

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/british-grandma-is-1st-in-world-to-get-pfizer-vaccine-outside-trial-2335689?pfrom=home-ndtv_bigstory

Great news!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on December 08, 2020, 07:52:30 AM
They have done zoom calls. At this time a lot of people will appreciate them making an effort to go around and speak to people in person. It's a three day trip apparently and all the travelling, apart from cars to and from station, will be on the one train. I get that many think they are a waste of space but not all feel like that. This pair are quite popular and put others at ease. If their visits give people a boost it can't be all bad - if they weren't welcome they wouldn't be doing it.
Well said!  The Royals are a good system and that system does not need fixing!

Edited to add that I see from the intervening posts that the drag-'em-all-down anti-royialists have had a say!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 08, 2020, 09:14:02 AM
Well said!  The Royals are a good system and that system does not need fixing!

Edited to add that I see from the intervening posts that the drag-'em-all-down anti-royialists have had a say!
Rather that than your 'they are all perfect, no need to fix anything' attitude, which is frankly the kind of attitude that sends those in the middle ground (don't want to get rid of the Royals but they need serious reform) heading inexorably towards the republican camp.

If you cannot recognise how poor the 'optics' and PR are on this ill advised tour, then you really do need to think a bit more carefully. Even the normally uber-pro monarchy media seem pretty unanimous that it isn't a good news story for the royals - normally most of the national papers will put a photo of William and Kate on their front page at the drop of a hat, yet I don't think any of them have reported the trip on their front page. The BBC news last night chose not to mention it at all (which they would have undoubtedly done had they thought it positive). The Times covered the visit in a small article on p9 with the headline 'Cambridges given chilly reception by Sturgeon'.

And in a way - good on the media - ignoring the whole 'look, we've got a whole train' non-sense, the media seems to have better sense than to publicise a clearly non-essential trip to Scotland from England (not allowed) and into tier 3 areas in England (also not allowed) involving not just the royal couple but their whole entourage of advisers, media journalists etc etc. And when I say not allowed, that is in agreement with the government guidance that says you should avoid travel to tier 3 unless necessary - they've claimed it is for work, but even so you'd need to demonstrate that the travel was necessary for work. On what planet is it necessary to visit a school in Berwick at this point, even if you do consider it to be for work, which it rather stretching a point.

Robbie talked about giving people a boost - well, news for you Royal-lovers - I imagine the thing that has given the whole country a boost today (and in particular those key workers) is the start of the vaccination programme not a princess making a completely unnecessary trip to a school in tier 3 and getting a real reindeer there as well, because, well you know, she's a princess.

And while we are on this 'one rule for the elite, another for everyone else'. Well yesterday I found out that my neighbours' daughter had a serious accident over the weekend - she's in A&E in London - touch and go. Her parents aren't allowed to visit their daughter due to covid, yet William and Kate get to waltz into any hospital or care home they choose to visit.

Rant over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on December 08, 2020, 09:54:28 AM
Rant over.
:) Actually, I can quite agree with quite a bit you have said and I do not of course think the royals are perfect, that would be ridiculous. They make mistakes. However, as I have said often enough, it's a system that works until someone comes up with a far better one, and with the agreement of a large majority of the people, not just a slight percentage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 08, 2020, 10:05:24 AM
:) Actually, I can quite agree with quite a bit you have said and I do not of course think the royals are perfect, that would be ridiculous. They make mistakes.
In which case your comment that 'The Royals are a good system and that system does not need fixing!' seems rather ill-advised. If they aren't perfect then the system certainly needs change (i.e. fixing) and is arguably not a good system.

However, as I have said often enough, it's a system that works until someone comes up with a far better one, and with the agreement of a large majority of the people, not just a slight percentage.
A far better system is surely too high a bar - you just need a better system. For many people (and I fully accept it isn't a majority) any system where the head of state is chosen by the people in a democratic process is a better system, indeed a far better system, than one in which the head of state is selected by accident of birth.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on December 08, 2020, 10:16:03 AM
From what I've read this nonsense is intended as a 'thank you', and no doubt a few forelock-tugging sycophants will be wheeled out to say how grateful they were.

Perhaps this pair of hangers-on should have decided to stay where there were, like the rest of us have to, and maybe suggest that the key workers they wished to thank might be better compensated with something extra in their pay. 
 


Wee Willie Windsor was only following tradition, Gordon - a tradition set by his dear old dad who decided, on being tested positive, way back in the mists of time (April) to high tail it up to Birkhall to isolate himself there with his flunkies - taking the virus with him, of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 08, 2020, 10:53:04 AM
  Wee Willie Windsor was only following tradition, Gordon - a tradition set by his dear old dad who decided, on being tested positive, way back in the mists of time (April) to high tail it up to Birkhall to isolate himself there with his flunkies - taking the virus with him, of course.
I don't think there is any suggestion that William or Kate are infectious and I'm sure they'll have been having regular tests.

But nonetheless I do sometimes wonder who advises the Royals - who on earth thought this tour was a good idea. Anyone with an ounce of nouse would have recognised the numerous reasons why the optics are so bad and also how this 1200 mile round trip of the parts of the country with the worst infection rates sends all the wrong messages when it is difficult to get some of the public to abide by the rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 08, 2020, 11:03:36 AM
Going down well in Wales too - not. >:(

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55229410
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on December 08, 2020, 11:16:33 AM
In which case your comment that 'The Royals are a good system and that system does not need fixing!' seems rather ill-advised. If they aren't perfect then the system certainly needs change (i.e. fixing) and is arguably not a good system.
A far better system is surely too high a bar - you just need a better system. For many people (and I fully accept it isn't a majority) any system where the head of state is chosen by the people in a democratic process is a better system, indeed a far better system, than one in which the head of state is selected by accident of birth.

With one caveat I would like to agree with this.

Where this goes wrong is where the head of state is also the head of government.  Constitutional republics are ... too often ... besmerched by politics (you only have to look  across the Atlantic to see this). Anyone who wants to be president has rules himself or herself out.

Were he living today, I would say that Yehudi Menuhin would have made an admirable president. Not only was he a great musician he was also a great humanitarian and he brought great honour to his adopted homeland.

EDIT - Not intended to be a derail, sorry
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on December 08, 2020, 12:03:24 PM
In which case your comment that 'The Royals are a good system and that system does not need fixing!' seems rather ill-advised. If they aren't perfect then the system certainly needs change (i.e. fixing) and is arguably not a good system.
A far better system is surely too high a bar - you just need a better system. For many people (and I fully accept it isn't a majority) any system where the head of state is chosen by the people in a democratic process is a better system, indeed a far better system, than one in which the head of state is selected by accident of birth.
True, but nowhere near as colourfl or as much fun!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on December 08, 2020, 01:58:35 PM
Going down well in Wales too - not. >:(

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55229410

 :D
They're damned if they do & damned if they don't, can't win! On the whole the 'tour' seems to be quite successful tho & is well intentioned.

Vaccination has started.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 08, 2020, 02:12:16 PM
:D
They're damned if they do & damned if they don't, can't win! On the whole the 'tour' seems to be quite successful tho & is well intentioned.

Don't worry about it. Some people seem to think that making people not utterly miserable all the time is not essential. Some people like to pounce on every mistake - real or imagined - to bang their own political drums.

That said, the optics don't look great. In a rational world it wouldn't be a big deal, but this isn't a rational world and there will be people who try to justify their own reckless behaviour with "Will and Kate did it".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on December 08, 2020, 04:16:45 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-55230774

The 2021 school exams in Scotland have been cancelled. The ones here in Wales were cancelled the other week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 08, 2020, 04:46:07 PM
Not getting why the 'closeness to Christmas' prevented Edinburgh being moved into tier 2.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-scotland-55230778?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 08, 2020, 05:05:05 PM
That said, the optics don't look great. In a rational world it wouldn't be a big deal, but this isn't a rational world and there will be people who try to justify their own reckless behaviour with "Will and Kate did it".
It gets worse and worse - now the government are all over the place in terms of their own messaging about the tour.

Having originally been billed as meeting frontline key workers, e.g. NHS staff, care workers etc, culture secretary Oliver Dowden (you know the guy who wanted 'fiction warnings' on The Crown) has said that their visit to Cardiff was about visiting cultural organisations. Important, no doubt, but hardly on the front-line of the fight against covid. And they visited Christmas at the Castle - a Christmas visitor attraction at Cardiff Castle. Yup, top idea encouraging people in a city with 322 cases per 100,000 and rapidly rising to attend a Christmas festival (if it's OK for them Royals, let's get out there and spread that virus)!

And then number 10 seems to have no idea - 'After initially saying the Cambridges' tour was a "matter for the palace", No 10 said Boris Johnson welcomed the "morale boost" it would provide.' Sounds as if this was all organised without any proper involvement of the devolved governments in Wales and Scotland, and increasing looks as if the UK government had no idea either.

And after 'reindeer-gate', we now have 'secret-santa-gate' in which the Cambridge's share secret santa presents (opened there and then - no gloves or masks etc) with complete strangers ... in the part of the UK with the worse case numbers, and rising. Did anyone tell them that the virus can remain viable on packaging for a number of days!

It's almost as if they've been placed in one of those health and safety videos where you have a character who does everything wrong in terms of safety to show others what not to do. Sadly there will be plenty of people who see this and think that its OK to be trotting off to a busy visitor attraction in a city with a high and rising virus problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 08, 2020, 05:25:10 PM
Both the Express and the Mail putting the boot in now:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/royal/1369664/kate-middleton-news-duchess-of-cambridge-prince-william-scotland-royal-family-latest-VN
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9029539/Now-WALES-swipes-William-Kate-cross-Britain-tour.html

Love the Express headline (can't believe I just said that) - 'Kate Middleton and Prince William 'need heads examined' after 'ill-advised' royal tour'.

And look at the map on the Mail article - who in their right mind through that visiting a care home just hours after visiting a visitor attraction in Cardiff (with its really worrying case numbers) was a sensible idea. Looking at the tour, visiting high infection areas and high risk places - it is almost Trumpian in its super-spreader potential.

And also look at the photo of them posing with an 8 year old child undergoing cancer treatment with no attempt at social distancing ... yup you read it right - cancer treatment - no social distancing.

And to cap it all - after a completely unnecessary 48 hours of whistlestop tour of top infection places - packed full of visits just to maximise the number of contacts and potential infections - just the time to meet up with your 94 year old grandmother/grandmother in law. Not sure what they did next but if they entered Windsor castle that would most definitely be against the rules in tier 2, as you cannot meet indoors except with other members of your household.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on December 08, 2020, 11:07:43 PM
I thought of starting a poll in my local FB group, which is infested by illiterate anti-vaccine people who think they know better than the vast majority of experts:

Will you be getting the SARS-Cov-2 vaccine?
1) Yes - I want to consign this bloody pandemic to history as soon as possible.
2) No - I have a valid medical exemption, confirmed by a proper doctor (not a homeopath, aromatherapist, etc).
3) No - 'm a selfish idiot.

However, in the end I thought better of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on December 09, 2020, 07:19:33 AM
I thought of starting a poll in my local FB group, which is infested by illiterate anti-vaccine people who think they know better than the vast majority of experts:

Will you be getting the SARS-Cov-2 vaccine?
1) Yes - I want to consign this bloody pandemic to history as soon as possible.
2) No - I have a valid medical exemption, confirmed by a proper doctor (not a homeopath, aromatherapist, etc).
3) No - 'm a selfish idiot.

However, in the end I thought better of it.

Saw this and thought of you:

Although Covid is spread by nose and mouth, the greatest risk is now proven to be that it is spread by assholes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on December 09, 2020, 08:05:13 AM
 ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 09, 2020, 08:32:41 AM
And to cap it all - after a completely unnecessary 48 hours of whistlestop tour of top infection places - packed full of visits just to maximise the number of contacts and potential infections - just the time to meet up with your 94 year old grandmother/grandmother in law. Not sure what they did next but if they entered Windsor castle that would most definitely be against the rules in tier 2, as you cannot meet indoors except with other members of your household.
OK - definitely breaking the rules, as Edward/Sophie and Anne were also there:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55239618

Can't they count - there is a rule of 6, and that is definitely 8 people. And that fact that they were social distancing makes no difference as it still applies within the rule of 6.

Now I'm sure they'll try to claim it was 'work' - but firstly that is stretching the rules top breaking point - in what way is a person meet with three of her children (and in some cases their spouses) plus a grandchild and spouse somehow 'work'.

But that isn't really the main issue - around the country people wont be looking at this photo and thinking 'ah but I can't do that as meeting with my family isn't work' - nope the message it sends is that it is OK to meet up with family even if it is more than 6 people - and that isn't allowed in the rules. The Queen is high profile and has an important role in setting the norms for behaviour in these times. She must obey the rules, and obey them to the letter not try to get around them. Why - because she sets an example, and if her example is poor (which it was in this case) then the clear message is 'well if the Queen can get away with breaking the rules, why shouldn't I'.

Poor show.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 09, 2020, 10:20:20 AM

Cruise 'to nowhere' ended

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-55241282
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on December 09, 2020, 11:17:33 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55244122

People who suffer from significant allergic reactions have been told it is not wise for them to have the vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on December 09, 2020, 11:28:03 AM
Also pregnant women, though breastfeeding is not a counter-indication, and pregnancy is a temporary bar, so, apart from people with a genuine, permanent counter-indication, the whole country could be vaccinated in under a year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 09, 2020, 11:31:36 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55244122

People who suffer from significant allergic reactions have been told it is not wise for them to have the vaccine.
All the more reason for everyone to get the vaccine, except those without a valid reason that means they cannot have the vaccine.

While I am a strong believer in consent there are times when public health (and the economy in this case) are perhaps stronger arguments. And while I wouldn't go as far as forcing people to have the vaccine I see no reason why being vaccinated (unless you cannot be for medical reasons) should be a requirement for accessing services etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 09, 2020, 12:47:56 PM
Interesting on the possible retreat on human rights during Covid


https://www.idea.int/news-media/news/nearly-half-democracies-have-regressed-basic-rights-202-measures-combat-covid-19
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on December 09, 2020, 05:34:28 PM
All the more reason for everyone to get the vaccine, except those without a valid reason that means they cannot have the vaccine.

While I am a strong believer in consent there are times when public health (and the economy in this case) are perhaps stronger arguments. And while I wouldn't go as far as forcing people to have the vaccine I see no reason why being vaccinated (unless you cannot be for medical reasons) should be a requirement for accessing services etc.

Broadly agree with that. I believe that vaccination works but should be voluntary as much as possible. But then different countries work in different ways. Over here, recommendations seem to work well as most people trust the authorities that make them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 09, 2020, 05:41:26 PM

If you haven't seen the interview with Martin Kenyon, it's a joy


https://m.youtube.com/watch?fbclid=IwAR1DJlvf-c-bOdORVvzosDgvyQ72yWWFM5mY5sI9WMw5pp1MNYpCmTc58VE&feature=youtu.be&v=1rCFyroIbp4
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on December 09, 2020, 05:47:35 PM
There seems to have been a glitch in the health authorities computer system where cases are reported. 470 cases (I know that doesn't sound much but it is for us) weren't recorded from 2-8.12 because of it. For the last couple of weeks we've been recording about 300-500 new cases a day. During the summer we even had a few zero days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on December 11, 2020, 02:36:35 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55265317

Welsh secondary schools and FE colleges will do lessons on-line as from next Monday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on December 11, 2020, 03:08:36 PM
That seems sensible to me though I am not insensitive to the difficulties it poses for working parents some of whom still have to go out to work. I'm glad not to have children at school any more - not for a long time - but wonder how I would have managed. I did have family around who were always willing to step up, as I did for nieces and nephews, but with 'bubbles' and the like which we have now I don't know how that would have worked. I could have done some work from home as I did in this job during the first lockdown.

I finished work at 2.30 today and off Monday. There was more traffic about when I was coming home than I've seen for ages, s'pose people are shopping in Bromley.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on December 11, 2020, 03:23:59 PM
In areas where broadband access is limited will not make it easy for some children trying to do their lessons on-line.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 12, 2020, 12:02:51 PM
Schooling in Covid times


https://amp.theguardian.com/education/2020/dec/12/down-two-maths-teachers-head-maths-almost-tears-diary-headteachers-week?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 12, 2020, 01:44:22 PM
All the more reason for everyone to get the vaccine, except those without a valid reason that means they cannot have the vaccine.
I think there's a typo there: "except those with a valid reason that means they cannot have the vaccine
Quote
While I am a strong believer in consent there are times when public health (and the economy in this case) are perhaps stronger arguments. And while I wouldn't go as far as forcing people to have the vaccine I see no reason why being vaccinated (unless you cannot be for medical reasons) should be a requirement for accessing services etc.
Another one there I think: " I see no reason why being vaccinated ... shouldn't be a requirement for accessing services etc"

Since it's going to be many months before everybody has had the opportunity to get vaccinated, it's not practical to do that, at least not yet. Also, you'd need some sort of identity card scheme or something so that people can prove they've had the vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 13, 2020, 11:32:29 AM
Germany into harsher lockdown from Wednesday.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55292614
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on December 13, 2020, 11:46:16 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55105307

Cases in Wales have passed the 100,000 mark, I reckon there will be an even stricter lockdown here very soon. :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 13, 2020, 01:11:03 PM
Germany into harsher lockdown from Wednesday.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55292614

Including over Christmas. Nobody in our government would have the balls to do that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 14, 2020, 12:01:25 PM
And London possibly moving back into Tier 3


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55301192
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 14, 2020, 12:02:32 PM
Including over Christmas. Nobody in our government would have the balls to do that.
Rumours that Scottish Govt might break from the 5 day plan
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 14, 2020, 12:31:46 PM
Aw! Charles, who breached Covid travel rules earlier, upset at following the rules now


https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinburgh-news/charles-camilla-cancel-scottish-plans-19450985
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 14, 2020, 04:14:11 PM
New strain of virus in South East

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-55308211?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 14, 2020, 04:46:55 PM
And this seems reasonable about the issues with the 5 days of Christmas and the Tier 3 restrictions in London


https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2020/12/london-will-go-lockdown-its-rest-united-kingdom-thats-risk
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 15, 2020, 10:02:34 AM
Be interesting to see what Starmer says on this.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55311573
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 15, 2020, 12:47:16 PM
'Rash Christmas'?


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-55311717?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on December 15, 2020, 01:11:59 PM
'Rash Christmas'...
...I gave you the bug, but the very next day you gave it away...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 15, 2020, 01:45:13 PM
...I gave you the bug, but the very next day you gave it away...
Coronageddoned being a bit worse than Whamaggedoned
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 16, 2020, 12:12:42 PM
So we are going to be allowed to mix but told not to. This is pretty much the message that has been coming from the Scottish Govt over the last week but it just feels like weakness


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55327709
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on December 16, 2020, 12:19:50 PM
The message appears to be you can mix but best not to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 16, 2020, 01:04:54 PM
The message appears to be you can mix but best not to.
Tighter restrictions in Wales. Won't be surprised if Scotland follows

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55331366
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on December 16, 2020, 01:54:52 PM
Tighter restrictions in Wales. Won't be surprised if Scotland follows

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55331366

I wonder if the restrictions will be tight enough here in Wales?  Flintshire, where we live, has a rising rate of people testing positive with the virus. People who have been treated for other conditions have caught it during their stay at our local hospital! :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ekim on December 17, 2020, 08:50:39 AM
I had my first Covid inoculation yesterday with the 2nd World War generation.  It was like old times - queuing with our gas masks to get into the shelter then after the injection a quarter of an hour wait for the 'all clear' before we could leave.  The bloke in front of me was nothing but complain, complain, complain.  When he got to the nurse she asked him what he was there for.  'Just a little prick' he said.  So she gave him a mirror and said he would find one in there.  The man behind me was very fearful of the pain of having the injection and asked me if there were any side effects.  I told him that when the needle went in he would experience an orgasm.  He was OK after I told him that.  I can't wait for the booster in January.  We get to queue in the snow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on December 17, 2020, 10:02:37 AM
President Macron joins the list of world leaders contracting Covid:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55347406
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 17, 2020, 10:40:04 AM
Hmm...


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9061903/Tobias-Ellwood-attended-Christmas-dinner-London-club-insists-business-meeting.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 17, 2020, 11:05:25 AM
And again hmmm...


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/17/world/europe/britain-covid-contracts.html?referringSource=articleShare
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on December 17, 2020, 11:16:49 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55347406

The French President has tested positive for the virus and is self isolating.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on December 17, 2020, 11:19:31 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55347406

The French President has tested positive for the virus and is self isolating.

Is there an echo in here  ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on December 17, 2020, 11:21:23 AM
Is there an echo in here  ;)

?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on December 17, 2020, 11:25:22 AM
I posted about Macron a couple of posts before yours.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 17, 2020, 11:29:47 AM
Hmm...


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9061903/Tobias-Ellwood-attended-Christmas-dinner-London-club-insists-business-meeting.html

The stupidity of our elected representatives seems to be beyond bounds. Did he not think for a second how it would look even if it was technically legal?

He's lying about it being a business meeting, by the way. I've attended hundreds of business meetings since the first lockdown began and not a single one of them required me to be there in person. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 17, 2020, 11:32:04 AM
?

Trentvoyager posted about Macron a couple of posts before yours...


... there is an echo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on December 17, 2020, 11:38:39 AM
Sorry about that! :-[
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on December 17, 2020, 03:37:27 PM
I phoned the surgery this morning to see if they could give me some idea of when I might be called and the answer was; probably during the next week or so!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on December 17, 2020, 03:44:00 PM
Our youngest adopted son (35) has Down's Syndrome, it would appear that people with this condition are at greater risk if they contract the virus and should be shielding. I must have a word with the people at his care home to ensure they are aware of this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on December 17, 2020, 06:27:21 PM
I phoned the surgery this morning to see if they could give me some idea of when I might be called and the answer was; probably during the next week or so!

It could be your Christmas Day treat from "Boris" Johnson!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on December 18, 2020, 06:54:04 AM
It could be your Christmas Day treat from "Boris" Johnson!
:D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on December 18, 2020, 08:37:43 AM
Our youngest adopted son (35) has Down's Syndrome, it would appear that people with this condition are at greater risk if they contract the virus and should be shielding. I must have a word with the people at his care home to ensure they are aware of this.
Am I not correct in thinking that DS people are prone to respiratory problems? That'd explain it, if so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 18, 2020, 08:51:55 AM
Our youngest adopted son (35) has Down's Syndrome, it would appear that people with this condition are at greater risk if they contract the virus and should be shielding. I must have a word with the people at his care home to ensure they are aware of this.
Colleague at work has a son with Down's and they have been shielding.
 
It's a difficult time so hope and am sure you will get the necessary reassurances from the care home. Thoughts are with you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 18, 2020, 10:21:33 AM
Severe lockdown for Northern Ireland.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-55360646
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on December 18, 2020, 11:23:07 AM
Our son who joined our family at the age of 13 months, has not had any respiratory problems. However  he does have a condition called G6PD, which is quite common among people Greek Cypriot origin as he is , which means there are many medications he must not have.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 19, 2020, 12:45:24 PM

UK govt cabinet meeting about English restrictions

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55376727
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 19, 2020, 02:41:38 PM
And Scotland Cabinet meeting too


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-55377614
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 19, 2020, 02:47:00 PM
And London heading for 'tier 4' even though there is no such thing in England currently. And who knows about Christmas


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55376727
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 19, 2020, 04:17:27 PM
Johnson only 12 minutes late. Given it's Strictly Final couldn't take the chance.

Sturgeon doing one at 17.30 so she will need to be fast given Strictly starts at 6.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 19, 2020, 05:11:45 PM
Wales in lockdown from midnight
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 19, 2020, 05:14:38 PM
Baffled why in the new tier 4, communal worship is allowed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 19, 2020, 05:22:26 PM
Baffled why in the new tier 4, communal worship is allowed.

Because religion.

Interestingly my parents' church stopped doing communal services at the beginning of the last lockdown and didn't restart when it finished even though they are in tier 2.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 19, 2020, 05:25:49 PM
Because religion.

Interestingly my parents' church stopped doing communal services at the beginning of the last lockdown and didn't restart when it finished even though they are in tier 2.
Yes, that seems like the wise option. Pity not all places are as sensible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on December 19, 2020, 05:59:04 PM
Baffled why in the new tier 4, communal worship is allowed.
To be fair, it was - and will be - allowed in Scotland in tier four - though numbers limited to twenty. I conducted worship on two consecutive Sundays under tier four.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on December 19, 2020, 06:11:01 PM
Our youngest girl, who lives in Chester, is coming over this evening to bring us our presents, she won't now be able to come over to Wales tomorrow as planned.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 19, 2020, 06:13:59 PM
To be fair, it was - and will be - allowed in Scotland in tier four - though numbers limited to twenty. I conducted worship on two consecutive Sundays under tier four.
I think it was wrong then. Given the latest news it's just wrongerest.


I fear the borders are closed after the variant has bolted
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on December 19, 2020, 06:33:02 PM
Baffled why in the new tier 4, communal worship is allowed.
Any excuse to have a Scroogesque pop at religion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 19, 2020, 06:46:47 PM
Any excuse to have a Scroogesque pop at religion.
I understand that principles of rationality, consistency and equality are things you have problems with. I offer my sympathy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 19, 2020, 07:01:42 PM
So... 371 sleeps until Christmas
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 19, 2020, 07:37:11 PM
The Chinese are so clever: they invented a virus that specifically targets countries run by incompetent fuckwits.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on December 19, 2020, 07:37:17 PM
We have online worship on our FB page - but not all our congregation can access FB.
As long as we are legally allowed to open our building, under whatever circumstances, we will do so.
Our minister has his last Sunday off - on the 27th - and yours truly has the pulpit again..under lockdown.
More sanitise than you can shake a stick at, all outer doors open, meaning the place is freezing, no singing...and still we're worried that we might get more than twenty in a building that sits six hundred at a push.
Mind you, if we end up with twenty five, well, I won't see 'em......
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 19, 2020, 07:38:51 PM
Anyone planning to stay up to midnight, drinking, to see in the new tier?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 19, 2020, 07:41:33 PM
We have online worship on our FB page - but not all our congregation can access FB.
As long as we are legally allowed to open our building, under whatever circumstances, we will do so.
Our minister has his last Sunday off - on the 27th - and yours truly has the pulpit again..under lockdown.
More sanitise than you can shake a stick at, all outer doors open, meaning the place is freezing, no singing...and still we're worried that we might get more than twenty in a building that sits six hundred at a push.
Mind you, if we end up with twenty five, well, I won't see 'em......
And again this simply privileges religion, and while I appreciate the joke it simply is the same approach as Cumming. You want to claim the rules don't apply to you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on December 19, 2020, 07:55:19 PM
And again this simply privileges religion, and while I appreciate the joke it simply is the same approach as Cumming. You want to claim the rules don't apply to you.
   



Technically, and under the articles which established the reunited CofS in 1929, they don't - though I believe they should.
The state guarahteed not no interfere with anything concerned in the running of the Kirk, as long as the kirk did not interfere with the state.
Yes, it's picky, but it works so far.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 19, 2020, 08:01:36 PM
   



Technically, and under the articles which established the reunited CofS in 1929, they don't - though I believe they should.
The state guarahteed not no interfere with anything concerned in the running of the Kirk, as long as the kirk did not interfere with the state.
Yes, it's picky, but it works so far.
I don't think that would hold up as laws cannot preclude reform. You cannot bind future parliaments 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on December 19, 2020, 08:52:09 PM
I don't think that would hold up as laws cannot preclude reform. You cannot bind future parliaments 
   



The kirk may be labyrinthine, legalistic, and its' legislative process moves at the speed of a one-legged arthritic tortoise, but the legal bods who drew up the Act were devious - this being the kirk, after all. Apparently, any change in the arrangement would have to be agreed by parliament (presumably Westminster), and the General Assembly to ve enacted.
Since, with the infamous 'Barrier Act' of 1568 - yes, right date - no GA can legislate without consulting presbyteries and the report going to a subsequent GA for amending and - hopefully - ratification, I wouldn't hold my breath.
If the Lord Jesus returned tomorrow, it would take the Kirk a minimum three years to legislate for it.......
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 19, 2020, 09:20:02 PM
   



The kirk may be labyrinthine, legalistic, and its' legislative process moves at the speed of a one-legged arthritic tortoise, but the legal bods who drew up the Act were devious - this being the kirk, after all. Apparently, any change in the arrangement would have to be agreed by parliament (presumably Westminster), and the General Assembly to ve enacted.
Since, with the infamous 'Barrier Act' of 1568 - yes, right date - no GA can legislate without consulting presbyteries and the report going to a subsequent GA for amending and - hopefully - ratification, I wouldn't hold my breath.
If the Lord Jesus returned tomorrow, it would take the Kirk a minimum three years to legislate for it.......
They can have been as devious as you like but it doesn't matter. Your argument is not really that different from the people who talk about the weird Magna Carta stuff. There is no way in our current democracy to have a court abrogate its decision to the Kirk.  They can't retrospectively affect the principle that parliaments cannot bind their successors - not in the end because of the principle but because of power.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on December 20, 2020, 11:23:41 AM
So trying to find out something that is rambling around in my head.

Is the fact that the UK has allowed the virus to take hold at fairly high levels in the population responsible (partly or wholly) for the emergence of this new more transmissable variant earlier than would have happened if we had controlled the virus more effectively?

And how is it more transmissable? They are saying 70% more but by what mechanism is that taking place?

I've tried internet searches but it all seems a bit sketchy currently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on December 20, 2020, 11:30:15 AM
I understand that principles of rationality, consistency and equality are things you have problems with. I offer my sympathy.
You don't need me to tell you where you can stick your sympathy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 20, 2020, 11:45:30 AM
You don't need me to tell you where you can stick your sympathy.
It is such a shame that these problems with rationality, consistency and equality that you have reduce your contributions to this. But I suppose that when you are trying to defend privileging the religious there's not much more you can do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 20, 2020, 11:51:33 AM
Chris Rea's full name is Christmas Rearrangements.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on December 20, 2020, 11:52:38 AM
Our DS son is being brought over this afternoon so he can collect his Christmas gifts. They will stay in the car, whilst I put them in the boot, so there will be no contact, which is wise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Stranger on December 20, 2020, 12:23:29 PM
So trying to find out something that is rambling around in my head.

Is the fact that the UK has allowed the virus to take hold at fairly high levels in the population responsible (partly or wholly) for the emergence of this new more transmissable variant earlier than would have happened if we had controlled the virus more effectively?

And how is it more transmissable? They are saying 70% more but by what mechanism is that taking place?

I've tried internet searches but it all seems a bit sketchy currently.

I have no specific information but...

Obviously there is a statistical connection between the amount of the virus in a given area and the chance of a significant mutation in that area.

It's going to be a lot easier to work out that a variant is more transmissible and by how much (by directly measuring how much more it has spread relative to the other variant) than to work out the specific mechanisms it uses. The lack of information to date would suggest that we don't know the answer yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 20, 2020, 12:26:17 PM
I have no specific information but...

Obviously there is a statistical connection between the amount of the virus in a given area and the chance of a significant mutation in that area.

It's going to be a lot easier to work out that a variant is more transmissible and by how much (by directly measuring how much more it has spread relative to the other variant) than to work out the specific mechanisms it uses. The lack of information to date would suggest that we don't know the answer yet.
The Daily Telegraph, of course, had a columnist asking WHERE the mutation came from.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on December 20, 2020, 12:37:33 PM
It is such a shame that these problems with rationality, consistency and equality that you have reduce your contributions to this. But I suppose that when you are trying to defend privileging the religious there's not much more you can do.
I'm not rising to your bait and getting myself suspended again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 20, 2020, 12:53:03 PM
I'm not rising to your bait and getting myself suspended again.
More seriously, part of my annoyance with this is that given the average age of congregations will be relatively high  and exemptions like this could lead to my sainted mother who is 90 thinking it's ok to attend. I will talk to her later today and try and persuade her not to, though I hope that her church will behave sensibly like jeremyp's parents' church and take the decision not to hold services.


So your original comment about this being about a Scrooge view of religion was part of your need to thoughtlessly attribute motivation   based on no knowledge or understanding and led you to taking up a position that you were incapable of defending. I don't have sympathy for you, I have pity. Pity that your thinking is so limited. Pity that you react so mindlessly to the poster, rather than the post, or rather the small-minded caricature of posters that you seem to need to create.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 20, 2020, 03:31:00 PM
Belguim, Italy, and The Netherlands ban flights from UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55385768
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on December 20, 2020, 03:37:48 PM
To clarify: I don't know why religion is being especially privileged; it is one of many inconsistencies and illogicalities of the government's response to the lurgy. I certainly do not believe that religion should have any special privileges, and have frequently argued against such privilege, in the shape of church schools supported by taxpayers, the established church, bishops in the House of Lords, etc. I did, though, think it was typical of NS to pick on that one inconsistency out of many to have a pop at.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 20, 2020, 03:46:18 PM
To clarify: I don't know why religion is being especially privileged; it is one of many inconsistencies and illogicalities of the government's response to the lurgy. I certainly do not believe that religion should have any special privileges, and have frequently argued against such privilege, in the shape of church schools supported by taxpayers, the established church, bishops in the House of Lords, etc. I did, though, think it was typical of NS to pick on that one inconsistency out of many to have a pop at.
  My original comment on it did not have a 'pop at it', just said that I found it baffling, and then after that agreeing with jeremyp that his patent's church had made a wise decision to not hold services. It's just you debating with your view of posters rather than the posts themselves that seems to have caused you to make up a motivation that was wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on December 20, 2020, 03:48:22 PM
OK, maybe I was a bit over-touchy, but you didn't have to be so infuriatingly superior and patronising.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on December 20, 2020, 03:49:33 PM
Belguim, Italy, and The Netherlands ban flights from UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55385768

One of my sisters has a second home in Bruges, she and her husband usually visit it every couple of weeks.  They are not likely to be going back there for sometime, especially as their British home is now in tier 4!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 20, 2020, 03:59:50 PM
OK, maybe I was a bit over-touchy, but you didn't have to be so infuriatingly superior and patronising.
I accept your apology.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on December 20, 2020, 06:27:01 PM
I accept your apology.
I endure your continuing sneery arrogance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 20, 2020, 06:30:34 PM
I endure your continuing sneery arrogance.
I forgive you. Now, to get back on track, do you agree that for many reasons the exception here is baffling, inconsistent and wrong?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on December 20, 2020, 06:44:51 PM
Yes. I never said otherwise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 20, 2020, 06:48:32 PM
Yes. I never said otherwise.
Hurrah, now for Christmas, do we have a virtual game of football?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 20, 2020, 06:49:28 PM

Travel to Ireland stopped.

https://amp.rte.ie/amp/1185542/?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on December 20, 2020, 06:53:58 PM
So trying to find out something that is rambling around in my head.

Is the fact that the UK has allowed the virus to take hold at fairly high levels in the population responsible (partly or wholly) for the emergence of this new more transmissable variant earlier than would have happened if we had controlled the virus more effectively?

And how is it more transmissable? They are saying 70% more but by what mechanism is that taking place?

I've tried internet searches but it all seems a bit sketchy currently.

There just isn't enough information available in the public domain (as far as I can tell) that allows us to confirm that the new virus variant is more transmissible or the exact mechanism behind this. It is certainly possible.

What is clear is that infection figures are running very high and the gov. has u-turned on the previous approach, using the "new strain" as an excuse.  It would have been much more effective to have followed the advice and comments offered earlier.
   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 20, 2020, 08:31:39 PM
This seems unlikely


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-wiltshire-55329808?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 20, 2020, 08:44:58 PM
And Eurotunnel shut for 48 hours


https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/eurotunnel-close-folkestone-france-uk-covid-mutant-strain-b410570.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 21, 2020, 10:14:55 AM
There just isn't enough information available in the public domain (as far as I can tell) that allows us to confirm that the new virus variant is more transmissible or the exact mechanism behind this. It is certainly possible.

What is clear is that infection figures are running very high and the gov. has u-turned on the previous approach, using the "new strain" as an excuse.  It would have been much more effective to have followed the advice and comments offered earlier.
 

Somebody told me that it is less serious if you catch it. I really do hope that is the case but I am not sure where that factoid came from.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 21, 2020, 10:30:35 AM
Somebody told me that it is less serious if you catch it. I really do hope that is the case but I am not sure where that factoid came from.
This seems like a reasonable summary of what is known


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55388846
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 21, 2020, 10:32:33 AM

And more and more countries restricting travel to and from UK


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55391289
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SweetPea on December 21, 2020, 10:44:22 AM
Somebody told me that it is less serious if you catch it. I really do hope that is the case but I am not sure where that factoid came from.

The BBC reported similar. If that is the case why all these extras measures? My son-in-law tested positive for the virus and was not very poorly at all - up and about helping with household chores. My daughter and grand-daughters were then tested and all three had a negative result. They were still off work and school and in isolation for fourteen days.

There's something very wrong about the handling of this pandemic. It's not all about the virus. The loss of lives (suicides) and livelihoods is tragic, some people are suffering abominably.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 21, 2020, 10:53:35 AM
The BBC reported similar.
Link?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SweetPea on December 21, 2020, 11:22:24 AM
Link?

On a couple of news bulletins.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on December 21, 2020, 11:39:16 AM
Quote
My son-in-law tested positive for the virus and was not very poorly at all - up and about helping with household chores. My daughter and grand-daughters were then tested and all three had a negative result. They were still off work and school and in isolation for fourteen days.

I'm glad your family got off relatively lightly.

I still speak to people I used to work with in the NHS. They are sick and tired of people dying from Covid in their hospital.

This disease is almost uniquely unpredictable, and for some people deadly. Do not dismiss it in this way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 21, 2020, 11:47:04 AM
On a couple of news bulletins.
Here's link to BBC summary on the mutation

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55388846

The discussion on its impact is



"Does it make the infection more deadly?
There is no evidence to suggest that it does, although this will need to be monitored.

However, just increasing transmission would be enough to cause problems for hospitals.

If the new variant means more people are infected more quickly, that would in turn lead to more people needing hospital treatment."

This suggests that you misunderstood.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on December 21, 2020, 12:06:15 PM
The most important question is surely "will the vaccines be effective against the new variant?" I understand that the answer, fortunately, is probably yes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Enki on December 21, 2020, 12:18:16 PM
The BBC reported similar. If that is the case why all these extras measures? My son-in-law tested positive for the virus and was not very poorly at all - up and about helping with household chores. My daughter and grand-daughters were then tested and all three had a negative result. They were still off work and school and in isolation for fourteen days.

There's something very wrong about the handling of this pandemic. It's not all about the virus. The loss of lives (suicides) and livelihoods is tragic, some people are suffering abominably.   

Like Trentvoyager, I genuinely am glad that your family have got off lightly. I have just learned that our neighbour's father died from Covid 19 recently, and my sister also died as a direct result of contracting the virus on December 1st.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SweetPea on December 21, 2020, 03:09:15 PM
Enki, sorry to hear of the death of your neighbour's father to this dreadful virus and my genuinely heartfelt condolences for the loss of your sister, very sad.
.......

Trent, I'm not disputing the seriousness of the virus (that's obvious given it's nature) but I cannot understand why perfectly healthy people that are not infected are being told to isolate for fourteen days. You don't quarantine a healthy person - it's never been known. I just feel it's an incredible price to pay to lose your livelihood and commit suicide for a virus that has a 98% chance of recovery.
.......

Nearly, perhaps I did misunderstand those reports from the BBC but that's what I gathered at the time.
.......

Nye Scuppertea, yes, I also heard from the BBC that the vaccines will probably be effective against the new variant. Here's hoping so and that with the rollout of the vaccines we shall be in a better place all round this time next year. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on December 21, 2020, 04:08:46 PM
Quote
I just feel it's an incredible price to pay to lose your livelihood and commit suicide for a virus that has a 98% chance of recovery.
.......

It is worth noting that 2% of 60 million is 1,200,000. Not to mention the fact that our hospitals would be totally overrun and unable to deal with all the other diseases that need treating.

As to your remark about healthy people isolating. You can test negative after coming into contact with a covid carrier and become positive later, hence the need for isolation. Until we get more reliable testing and more regular testing (both unlikely under this shambles of a government) isolation after contact is the safest way forward until vaccine time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on December 21, 2020, 04:34:33 PM
Quote
It is worth noting that 2% of 60 million is 1,200,000.

Is the actual recovery rate higher when you account for those who are positive but don't get tested?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 21, 2020, 05:08:06 PM
Not helping, guys (https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2020/12/eric-clapton-and-van-morrison-release-their-anti-mask-anthem)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on December 22, 2020, 07:31:49 AM
Not helping, guys (https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2020/12/eric-clapton-and-van-morrison-release-their-anti-mask-anthem)

Always liked Eric Clapton but he's just gone down in my estimation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 22, 2020, 09:51:16 AM

Can't be great being a lorry driver stuck in Kent

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55405299
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 22, 2020, 02:55:08 PM
Possibility of the tier 4 restrictions in Scotland getting tighter!


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55414617
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 22, 2020, 08:35:17 PM
Hmm...


https://bylinetimes.com/2020/12/21/eat-out-to-help-out-scheme-epidemiologically-illiterate-rishi-sunak-failed-to-consult-scientists/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 22, 2020, 08:48:18 PM


This is heartwarming


https://www.kentonline.co.uk/gravesend/news/hundreds-of-curries-delivered-roadside-to-stranded-truckers-239717/?fbclid=IwAR3sAFoTz6FF3aiHQ5LqD7s-mX86MRHyuSaOjKIynMlznuUU8a4C4eUbrok
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 22, 2020, 08:49:32 PM

Let's hope this sorts things out

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55418565
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 23, 2020, 09:12:47 AM
Sturgeon sans mask.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55419564
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Enki on December 23, 2020, 10:35:09 AM
Although it's a little early I really do wish this for everyone:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYPXkA0hyfA
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on December 23, 2020, 12:16:46 PM
I feel very sorry for all those lorry drivers queuing to get across the channel. Many aren't going to make it before Christmas as the backlog is going to take a good while to clear.  :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 23, 2020, 12:49:05 PM
I feel very sorry for all those lorry drivers queuing to get across the channel. Many aren't going to make it before Christmas as the backlog is going to take a good while to clear.  :(
Indeed, and given it was the sort of situation that the govt had supposedly been planning  for happening just a few days early seems to show that their plans weren't that good, certainly not oven ready.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55420193
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 23, 2020, 02:55:25 PM
Oh dear


"UK health secretary to lead press conference this afternoon
Health Secretary Matt Hancock will lead a Downing Street press conference at 15:00 GMT, when he is expected to announce changes to some tier restrictions in England.

He will be joined by deputy chief medical officer Dr Jenny Harries and Dr Susan Hopkins of Public Health England."




Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on December 23, 2020, 04:09:35 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55428953

Two cases of second new variant of the virus have been discovered in people coming from South Africa!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 23, 2020, 05:16:30 PM
France fast tracking immigration for front line workers. Seems a good idea.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55423257
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 23, 2020, 05:27:45 PM
Bristol enjoyed the heady freedoms of tier 2 for exactly a week.

Fareham will go into tier 4 which is not unexpected. All the Gosport people were whinging about Fareham because Fareham has more cases per 100,000 and Gosport is already in tier 4.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 23, 2020, 06:33:08 PM

Certainly feels a lot more tense

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/23/people-seem-more-afraid-life-on-plague-island-uk?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 23, 2020, 06:37:09 PM
All the deaths are sad but this is very sad


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55428497
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 26, 2020, 11:30:51 AM
Good article


https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/25/covid-19-good-health-biology-pandemic-unequal-effects?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 28, 2020, 02:41:47 PM

Fleeing skiers


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-55465079?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 28, 2020, 04:01:51 PM
Some interesting points about mental health


https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/27/covid-poses-greatest-threat-to-mental-health-since-second-world-war?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR0Dk8e-dEYlZGZX0grGWgLWhx7DuQ65uZH-woJsYxo3lESkKSul8vCEg8E
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 28, 2020, 05:20:05 PM

Scary numbers

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55462701
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 28, 2020, 06:00:48 PM
Tier 5?


https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/fears-tier-5-lockdown-england-23230646
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on December 29, 2020, 09:58:16 AM



Peculiar psychiatric symptoms of Covid 19.

https://in.yahoo.com/news/voice-told-kill-kids-small-091230722.html

**********

...sobbing and saying that she kept seeing her children, ages 2 to 10, being gruesomely murdered and that she herself had crafted plans to kill them.

“It was like she was experiencing a movie, like ‘Kill Bill,’” Goueli, a psychiatrist, said.

The patient described one of her children being run over by a truck and another decapitated. “It’s a horrifying thing that here’s this well-accomplished woman and she’s like ‘I love my kids, and I don’t know why I feel this way that I want to decapitate them,’” he said.

The only notable thing about her medical history was that the woman, ........... had become infected with the coronavirus in the spring. She had experienced only mild physical symptoms from the virus, but, months later, she heard a voice that first told her to kill herself and then told her to kill her children.

“But then,” he said, “we saw a second case, a third case and a fourth case, and we’re like, ‘There’s something happening.’”

Indeed, doctors are reporting similar cases across the country and around the world. A small number of COVID patients who had never experienced mental health problems are developing severe psychotic symptoms weeks after contracting the coronavirus.

**********

Very odd and frightening disease...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 29, 2020, 01:29:18 PM
Another big rise in cases



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 29, 2020, 05:51:06 PM
And another increase


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55475240
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on December 29, 2020, 10:27:51 PM
I've read two separate experts talking about the possibility, albeit slim, of eventually eradicating Covid-19 altogether, rather than just learning to live with it and controlling it, which I think is the main aim. If it could be eliminated, that'd be great.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Stranger on December 30, 2020, 08:03:59 AM
Good news.

Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine approved for use in UK (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55280671)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 30, 2020, 08:39:15 AM
Good news.

Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine approved for use in UK (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55280671)
It really is, and much needed
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on December 30, 2020, 08:56:56 AM
Good news.

Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine approved for use in UK (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55280671)
   


Marvellous.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 30, 2020, 03:21:04 PM
Most of England Tier 4 from midnight, all other areas apart from the Isles of Scilly, tier 3

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55489932
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on December 30, 2020, 03:41:30 PM
Most of England Tier 4 from midnight, all other areas apart from the Isles of Scilly, tier 3

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55489932
Can you tell me, please, what tier New Forest (west hampshire) is in?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ekim on December 30, 2020, 03:43:51 PM
Can you tell me, please, what tier New Forest (west hampshire) is in?
Tier 4 from Thursaday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 30, 2020, 03:45:23 PM
Can you tell me, please, what tier New Forest (west hampshire) is in?
Moved into Tier 4
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on December 30, 2020, 05:32:40 PM
Tier 4 from Thursaday.
Thank you for your help, much appreciated. Will hairdressers be allowed to open, do you know?

ETA: thank you too NS for your reply.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 30, 2020, 05:37:41 PM
Thank you for your help, much appreciated. Will hairdressers be allowed to open, do you know?

ETA: thank you too NS for your reply.
No, hairdressers will be shut
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on December 30, 2020, 05:45:11 PM
No, hairdressers will be shut
thank you for reply. Oh dear, back to washing it myself! No means of making it look even vaguely smart, but since nobody much is going to see it, I suppose that doesn't matter either!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 30, 2020, 10:27:19 PM
Gavin Williamson/Ted Rogers guide to schools opening in Tier 4

“Now if year 12 you be, but not in Tier 3
You’ll be back on the 5th if tested, you’ll see
For Tier 4 pre school there’s one more new rule
On the 18th you’ll return, new subjects to learn”
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on December 31, 2020, 05:13:40 AM
What the hell is year 12?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on December 31, 2020, 10:35:11 AM
What the hell is year 12?

The most senior high school year in which pupils do their A levels.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 31, 2020, 12:22:43 PM

Surely this is a nonsense and dangerous decision by the govt?


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9099049/Questions-Britains-decision-drop-two-dose-vaccine-regimen.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on December 31, 2020, 01:15:32 PM
The most senior high school year in which pupils do their A levels.
Secondary school starts at year 7, so five years to O levels= year 11 and two years on for A levels = year year 13 ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on December 31, 2020, 01:48:44 PM
Secondary school starts at year 7, so five years to O levels= year 11 and two years on for A levels = year year 13 ?

WHOOPS of course you are right! :-[
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on December 31, 2020, 02:18:48 PM
Surely this is a nonsense and dangerous decision by the govt?


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9099049/Questions-Britains-decision-drop-two-dose-vaccine-regimen.html

More here:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/31/covid-vaccine-uk-doctors-criticise-rescheduling-of-second-doses

Health workers having had one dose of the Pfizer vaccine are finding their appointments for the second are being cancelled.

It could be fine, but making these decisions without convincing evidence from clinical tests is reckless risk taking. One also suspects that the MHRA has been leant on, compromising trust further. 

Still, if everything goes to pot (yet again!) I expect Johnson could blame it all on Blair.

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 01, 2021, 03:06:01 PM
Struggling to see the rationale behind this


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55507001
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on January 01, 2021, 05:00:56 PM
Surely this is a nonsense and dangerous decision by the govt?


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9099049/Questions-Britains-decision-drop-two-dose-vaccine-regimen.html

They're panicking. I think the reasoning is that one dose does confer some resistance and that might be enough to curb the sudden increase in infections we are seeing. I think it's the wrong decision, but it is not nonsense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on January 01, 2021, 05:03:46 PM
More here:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/31/covid-vaccine-uk-doctors-criticise-rescheduling-of-second-doses

Health workers having had one dose of the Pfizer vaccine are finding their appointments for the second are being cancelled.

It could be fine, but making these decisions without convincing evidence from clinical tests is reckless risk taking. One also suspects that the MHRA has been leant on, compromising trust further. 
It is with front line health service staff who are in constant danger of contracting the virus. If there's one group of people we should not be shafting at this time, it's them.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on January 01, 2021, 07:12:19 PM
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/statement-from-the-uk-chief-medical-officers-on-the-prioritisation-of-first-doses-of-covid-19-vaccines
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 01, 2021, 08:16:14 PM
Struggling to see the rationale behind this


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55507001

It would appear there was none and there's been a u-turn

https://amp.theguardian.com/education/2021/jan/01/all-primary-schools-in-london-to-remain-closed-after-u-turn?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 01, 2021, 10:17:46 PM
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/statement-from-the-uk-chief-medical-officers-on-the-prioritisation-of-first-doses-of-covid-19-vaccines
Your point? That Pfizer are saying that the 3 months is an issue is surely a problem?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on January 02, 2021, 09:37:45 AM
Your point? That Pfizer are saying that the 3 months is an issue is surely a problem?

You asked two questions.
1. Surely this is a nonsense?
and
2. dangerous decision by the govt?

No and possibly, however;

Quote
The 4 UK Chief Medical Officers agree with the JCVI that at this stage of the pandemic prioritising the first doses of vaccine for as many people as possible on the priority list will protect the greatest number of at risk people overall in the shortest possible time and will have the greatest impact on reducing mortality, severe disease and hospitalisations and in protecting the NHS and equivalent health services.

4 Chief Medical Officers!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on January 02, 2021, 12:32:43 PM
4 Chief Medical Officers!
The devolved nations have a Chief Medical Officer too, so there are four in total.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on January 02, 2021, 05:42:14 PM
We are also now allowing patients to receive different vaccines at first and second vaccination points. Against all medical protocols.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/health/coronavirus-vaccines-britain.html?

Led by donkeys.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 02, 2021, 06:24:09 PM
We are also now allowing patients to receive different vaccines at first and second vaccination points. Against all medical protocols.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/health/coronavirus-vaccines-britain.html?

Led by donkeys.
I think the NYTimes doesn't quite give the full story. This is a contingency for when there has been a delay and the person is high risk. It's not a policy for general
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on January 03, 2021, 09:24:10 AM
We are also now allowing patients to receive different vaccines at first and second vaccination points. Against all medical protocols.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/health/coronavirus-vaccines-britain.html?

Led by donkeys.

https://www.ft.com/content/afa31d12-c393-402b-9677-1fb312cfa1cf

Quote
UK health officials rejected suggestions that the guidance implied a change of tactics. One said: “The UK has not moved to a mix-and-match regimen.” The approach would be used in exceptional circumstances where the only alternative was not to complete a vaccination course, they said. In practice it would be used rarely if at all, the official added
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Stranger on January 03, 2021, 11:51:31 AM
I think the NYTimes doesn't quite give the full story. This is a contingency for when there has been a delay and the person is high risk. It's not a policy for general

Indeed: Coronavirus: BMJ urges NYT to correct vaccine 'mixing' article (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55519042)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 04, 2021, 12:22:56 PM
And  time for a bit of humble pie, from the BBCs live covid feed

'Germany looking into delaying second vaccine dose - report

Germany is seeking advice on whether to delay giving the second dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine to make supplies go further, in a similar move to the UK, according to a document seen by the Reuters news agency.

The country's health ministry has asked an independent vaccination commission for its opinion on administering the second shot later than 42 days after the first.'

So the UK govt was ahead of a trend, though perhaps needed to manage the message better 


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 04, 2021, 12:43:40 PM
Thread from Jeremy Hunt.


https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1346063563450888192.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 04, 2021, 02:29:38 PM
And the new rules across mainland Scotland


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55531069
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 04, 2021, 02:36:36 PM
And  time for a bit of humble pie, from the BBCs live covid feed

'Germany looking into delaying second vaccine dose - report

Germany is seeking advice on whether to delay giving the second dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine to make supplies go further, in a similar move to the UK, according to a document seen by the Reuters news agency.

The country's health ministry has asked an independent vaccination commission for its opinion on administering the second shot later than 42 days after the first.'

So the UK govt was ahead of a trend, though perhaps needed to manage the message better

Yes, of-course all countries have to consider these strategies as vaccine supply is limited. But the fact remains that there has not been time to test the longer delays between doses, which, in theory, might even be more effective. It is operating in the dark.

It must be recognised that the decision is being taken on a pragmatic and political basis, not a scientific one. That Germany or other countries may take the same path increases the risks, not vindicate risks already being taken.

Modellers have suggested that increasing the period to the 2nd dose to 12 weeks could save around 6000 UK lives. On the other hand, there is an unknown probability and cost of variants of this slippery virus escaping the vaccines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Outrider on January 04, 2021, 02:51:28 PM
Yes, of-course all countries have to consider these strategies as vaccine supply is limited. But the fact remains that there has not been time to test the longer delays between doses, which, in theory, might even be more effective. It is operating in the dark.

It must be recognised that the decision is being taken on a pragmatic and political basis, not a scientific one. That Germany or other countries may take the same path increases the risks, not vindicate risks already being taken.

Modellers have suggested that increasing the period to the 2nd dose to 12 weeks could save around 6000 UK lives. On the other hand, there is an unknown probability and cost of variants of this slippery virus escaping the vaccines.

But it does suggest that the move isn't the 'reckless' idea that some have suggested, but rather an appropriate if somewhat desperate measure that a range of political appointees would take under the same constraints.  It doesn't validate the science, but it does support the idea that it's an appropriate way forward under the circumstances.

O.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 04, 2021, 03:25:30 PM
But it does suggest that the move isn't the 'reckless' idea that some have suggested, but rather an appropriate if somewhat desperate measure that a range of political appointees would take under the same constraints.  It doesn't validate the science, but it does support the idea that it's an appropriate way forward under the circumstances.

O.

Agreed, (though I did earlier say it was reckless!). But, so far, not impressed by returns from the other 'bets' taken so far.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 04, 2021, 04:44:31 PM



'After Tier 5, Tier 6 is martial law, Tier 7 is a planned cull, Tier 8 is a cull but just at random, Tier 9 is Protect & Survive, Tier 10 is the Four Horsemen, Tier 11 is The Rapture, Tier 12 is there is no Rapture, idiots & Tier 13 is Eat Out To Help Out but only at Wetherspoon's'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on January 04, 2021, 04:53:53 PM


'After Tier 5, Tier 6 is martial law, Tier 7 is a planned cull, Tier 8 is a cull but just at random, Tier 9 is Protect & Survive, Tier 10 is the Four Horsemen, Tier 11 is The Rapture, Tier 12 is there is no Rapture, idiots & Tier 13 is Eat Out To Help Out but only at Wetherspoon's'
   


Which one involves emotional cerebro-spinal fluid?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on January 04, 2021, 05:01:00 PM
And  time for a bit of humble pie, from the BBCs live covid feed

'Germany looking into delaying second vaccine dose - report

Germany is seeking advice on whether to delay giving the second dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine to make supplies go further, in a similar move to the UK, according to a document seen by the Reuters news agency.

The country's health ministry has asked an independent vaccination commission for its opinion on administering the second shot later than 42 days after the first.'

So the UK govt was ahead of a trend, though perhaps needed to manage the message better

Germany is "seeking advice". i.e. asking if it is a good idea. They haven't jumped right in yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on January 04, 2021, 05:01:19 PM
   


Which one involves emotional cerebro-spinal fluid?

 ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 04, 2021, 06:33:27 PM


'MP Margaret Ferrier arrested and charged with culpable and reckless conduct over her journey between Scotland and the Commons after taking Covid test'


At last
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on January 04, 2021, 07:25:26 PM
   
Which one involves emotional cerebro-spinal fluid?

Don't you mean accurate emotional cerebro-spinal fluid?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 05, 2021, 09:05:54 AM
So we send 3 million children to school for 1 day 10 days after a relaxation on mixing and then close the schools. Hmmmm....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 05, 2021, 10:01:30 AM
'Starting to wonder if the Govt is in the pocket of Big Pyjama'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dicky Underpants on January 05, 2021, 10:04:11 AM
Don't you mean accurate emotional cerebro-spinal fluid?
"Righteous accurate emotional  cerebro-spinal fluid".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on January 05, 2021, 10:27:11 AM
"Righteous accurate emotional  cerebro-spinal fluid".

With added 'Dynamism'.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 05, 2021, 10:43:14 AM
If the case is the trip wasn't approved I hope Celtic get the library thrown at them



https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/55535738
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on January 05, 2021, 10:52:56 AM
With added 'Dynamism'.
Only if it's sprinkled with hormones from a black hole, obviously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on January 05, 2021, 10:58:09 AM
If the case is the trip wasn't approved I hope Celtic get the library thrown at them



https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/55535738
   


Idiots.
The club should be fined and the team forced to self isolate for ten days, forfieting any games as a result.
(And I favour Celtic, nominally, at least)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 05, 2021, 11:05:25 AM
   


Idiots.
The club should be fined and the team forced to self isolate for ten days, forfieting any games as a result.
(And I favour Celtic, nominally, at least)
Even if it were approved, it's completely tone deaf. After Bolingoli acted as he did, link below, , you'd think that they might consider what this looks like. If it was approved then the process is idiotic as things changed considerably.




https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-8615427/Celtic-apologise-Boli-Bolingolis-irresponsible-stupidity-broke-quarantine-rules.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 05, 2021, 11:11:17 AM
Oi, Starmer, no!




https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/tv/sir-keir-starmer-says-laws-19563627
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 05, 2021, 11:17:51 AM
'Now that I have lived through an actual plague, I totally understand why Italian Renaissance paintings are full of naked fat people laying on couches'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on January 05, 2021, 11:30:44 AM
Oi, Starmer, no!




https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/tv/sir-keir-starmer-says-laws-19563627
Quite right. Good for Sir Keir.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 05, 2021, 11:33:54 AM
Quite right. Good for Sir Keir.
It's idiotic, and will create a ridiculous backlash, as well as undermining political debate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 05, 2021, 12:49:31 PM
Marina Hyde on Johnson.


https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/05/school-boris-johnson-national-lockdown-prime-minister-mistakes?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 05, 2021, 12:52:17 PM
Back at the worries of people, i.e. medical staff, who received the Pfizer vaccine and are now having it delayed


https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/05/unease-among-doctors-as-follow-up-doses-of-uk-covid-jab-delayed?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR2G6Gldf3QqK11AM8leNBQ4R7hgKchRiphCr5cy6QzQLIFCgc3udTckB0w#Echobox=1609830526
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 05, 2021, 04:18:11 PM
Moaning Scottish bishops



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55549184
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 05, 2021, 04:36:12 PM
More than 60,000 cases


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55550906
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 05, 2021, 04:49:05 PM
Strong support for lockdown, though many think it was done too late


https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/survey-results/daily/2021/01/05/dee1c/1?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=daily_questions&utm_campaign=question_1
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on January 05, 2021, 05:32:24 PM
Agree it should have been done before however encouraging to know so many are 'for' it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on January 05, 2021, 06:31:27 PM
Hopefully people will obey the rules this time around.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 05, 2021, 10:44:08 PM

The vaccine and the guitar pedal

https://www.guitarworld.com/amp/news/conspiracy-theorists-share-schematic-for-5g-chip-they-claim-is-implanted-in-covid-19-vaccines-only-its-actually-for-the-boss-metal-zone?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on January 05, 2021, 10:53:53 PM
The EU said it should order vaccines collectively, now it turns out Germany has ordered an extra 30 million byt itself for its own citizens. Bet there won't be any sanctions for Germany. One rule for the big states and fuck the rest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 06, 2021, 03:47:27 AM
Just to remind anyone who has forgotten, why Johnson is a dangerous idiot.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3NAx3tsy-k
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 06, 2021, 04:39:17 AM
Religious fuckery. And given what happened to Margaret Ferrier needs the Tories to suspend the whip. But they won't because they are hypocrites.

https://metro.co.uk/2021/01/05/jacob-rees-mogg-broke-covid-rules-by-crossing-tiers-to-go-to-church-13851547/amp/?ito=article.desktop.share.top.twitter&__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on January 06, 2021, 07:32:32 AM
Just to remind anyone who has forgotten, why Johnson is a dangerous idiot.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3NAx3tsy-k

And yet as the evidence mounts of his complete incompetence a large minority (37% on Yougov here: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating ) still choose to believe that he is doing a good job.

Astonishing to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 06, 2021, 09:02:32 AM
And yet as the evidence mounts of his complete incompetence a large minority (37% on Yougov here: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating ) still choose to believe that he is doing a good job.

Astonishing to me.
The thing is that there are  tons of things  that could be done better without this incompetence
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on January 06, 2021, 12:26:16 PM
And yet as the evidence mounts of his complete incompetence a large minority (37% on Yougov here: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/boris-johnson-approval-rating ) still choose to believe that he is doing a good job.

Astonishing to me.

Don't you think that Tory voters are irrational evil horrible people?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 06, 2021, 12:30:05 PM
Don't you think that Tory voters are irrational evil horrible people?
Nice to see you think sending children back to school for one day in some areas was a great idea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on January 06, 2021, 12:42:54 PM
Don't you think that Tory voters are irrational evil horrible people?

Did I say that?

No I didn't.

Now go away and have this imaginary conversation where you make up things I haven't said , and  have it someplace else.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 06, 2021, 02:36:34 PM
Germany decides against delaying Pfizer second doses:

Quote
Germany intends to stick to recommendations by BioNTech and Pfizer regarding the administration of a second dose of their Covid-19 vaccines rather than delaying it, health minister Jens Spahn said.

Germany has asked an independent expert panel for advice on whether to allow a delay in administering the second dose to make scarce supplies go further, after a similar move by Britain last week.

“My impression is that it makes a lot of sense, especially with these sensitive issues, where trust and reliability are important, that we stick to the approval,” Spahn told a news conference, adding that this was in line with the initial feedback he had received from the vaccination experts."



(Guardian live steam at 13:23)

Also the Moderna vaccine has been approved for emergency use in the EU, but quite a lot of criticism of vaccine roll-out in the various countries:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-52380823
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 06, 2021, 02:39:59 PM
The EU said it should order vaccines collectively, now it turns out Germany has ordered an extra 30 million byt itself for its own citizens. Bet there won't be any sanctions for Germany. One rule for the big states and fuck the rest.

Link?

Not really sure how what any country orders relates to how much ir receives or how quickly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 06, 2021, 03:19:38 PM
Return of the clap.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/06/woman-behind-uk-clap-for-carers-announces-resume-thursday-annemarie-plas?fbclid=IwAR22pysuCHlLbER3HBBUJvE7pOdbFBPgI1VQUXgNWeRAJpC0E9GNFzCi6DE
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on January 06, 2021, 05:51:06 PM
I hear on the news that 1,000 plus deaths have been announced today. Is there any record kept of where these deaths are, and who, in general, they are
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 06, 2021, 05:53:35 PM
Brutal numbers



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55565254

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 06, 2021, 05:57:54 PM
I hear on the news that 1,000 plus deaths have been announced today. Is there any record kept of where these deaths are, and who, in general, they are


You can get summary figures by postcode here

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk


Not sure if there are general figures for who is dying produced.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on January 06, 2021, 06:20:54 PM

You can get summary figures by postcode here

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk


Not sure if there are general figures for who is dying produced.
Thank you. I put in BH25 but I think it then showed a map so I would be grateful if you could let me know what it shows?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 06, 2021, 06:34:30 PM
Thank you. I put in BH25 but I think it then showed a map so I would be grateful if you could let me know what it shows?
It gives figures for the county. Total cases 5557. Rolling rate per 100,000 - 642.3. Above the average by about 45%
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 06, 2021, 06:40:32 PM
Thank you. I put in BH25 but I think it then showed a map so I would be grateful if you could let me know what it shows?
Looking at it goes to lower levels and your postcode has  28 cases, and a rolling rate of 440 per 100,000 which is bang on average
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on January 06, 2021, 06:42:26 PM
It gives figures for the county. Total cases 5557. Rolling rate per 100,000 - 642.3. Above the average by about 15%
Thank you. Those figures are probably due mor to the the eastern side of Hampshire although I do not know of course, but just over the border to the west is the Christchurch/Bournemouth/Poole area so they will probably have highish numbers.
ETA that I did not see above about local cases. Many thanks for the info.

A friend phoned to say that apparently Sir Desmond Swayne, local NFW MP, is not at all pleased about the New forest area being put into tier four.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 06, 2021, 06:47:17 PM
Thank you. Those figures are probably due mor to the the eastern side of Hampshire although I do not know of course, but just over the border to the west is the Christchurch/Bournemouth/Poole area so they will probably have highish numbers.
ETA that I did not see above about local cases. Many thanks for the info.

A friend phoned to say that apparently Sir Desmond Swayne, local NFW MP, is not at all pleased about the New forest area being put into tier four.

Looking at the numbers, all of Scotland other than 3 island groupings, is in tier 4, and only 2 areas are higher than your postcode so not sure what the justification for a lower tier would be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on January 06, 2021, 07:06:34 PM
Link?

Not really sure how what any country orders relates to how much ir receives or how quickly.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN29916N
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw.com/en/germany-says-eu-wide-vaccination-strategy-is-the-right-way/a-56127798
The idea was that EU members would order the vaccine collectively so that all member states would get a fair share. Bilateral deals were discouraged in the name of solidarity. That's 30 million extra doses that could have been distributed amongst all the states. Now they're going all to Germany. One rule for them!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on January 06, 2021, 07:23:52 PM
My parents both received their first shots of the Pfizer vaccine today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 06, 2021, 07:28:14 PM
My parents both received their first shots of the Pfizer vaccine today.
Great news. I'm getting annoyed that my mother doesn't have a date for it yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on January 06, 2021, 08:02:22 PM
Did I say that?

Never claimed you did, was a question.

Quote
Now go away and have this imaginary conversation where you make up things I haven't said , and  have it someplace else.

I don't need to go anywhere to have an imaginary conversation. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on January 07, 2021, 12:00:14 PM
Great news. I'm getting annoyed that my mother doesn't have a date for it yet.

You won't want to hear this then... My dad appears to have managed to jump the queue. My mother was a fairly high priority due to being over 70 and having asthma and high blood pressure. They just gave him his shot because he was there, accompanying mum (he's also over seventy but doesn't have any other risk factors).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on January 07, 2021, 12:27:58 PM
You won't want to hear this then... My dad appears to have managed to jump the queue. My mother was a fairly high priority due to being over 70 and having asthma and high blood pressure. They just gave him his shot because he was there, accompanying mum (he's also over seventy but doesn't have any other risk factors).

There are all sorts of anomalies. My_aunt and uncle were waiting to hear from their GP . Purely by chance they had a conversation with a friend who happened to be a consultant at the QMC in Nottingham. He told them to ring up the hospital. Which they did and after a 2 hour wait they got appts for their vaccination next Monday. As far as I can tell from other people this is not a service that has been made widely known to the public. Very odd.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 08, 2021, 11:54:30 AM
The 'alternative vaccine'


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-minister-champagne-covid-lockdown-b1782539.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on January 08, 2021, 11:59:38 AM
The 'alternative vaccine'


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-minister-champagne-covid-lockdown-b1782539.html
He's a Tory, and therefore a heartless spunktrumpet, but this is a non-story.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on January 08, 2021, 12:06:30 PM
He's a Tory, and therefore a heartless spunktrumpet, but this is a non-story.

Careful. You'll have the right wing thought police after you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on January 08, 2021, 01:11:54 PM
Careful. You'll have the right wing thought police after you.

Relative to you isn't everyone right-wing?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on January 08, 2021, 01:12:45 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55585142

Mr Drakeford said the roll-out was "not a sprint and secondly it's not a competition".

First it is a sprint and if competition makes you go faster embrace that as well!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 08, 2021, 01:43:23 PM
Relative to you isn't everyone right-wing?
Portraying a centre leftist like Trentvoyager as somehow extremist left winger tedious, and also the sort of thing that you complain about others doing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on January 08, 2021, 01:49:45 PM
Portraying a centre leftist like Trentvoyager as somehow extremist left winger tedious, and also the sort of thing that you complain about others doing.

It's also extremely tedious hearing people say every Tory is a "heartless spunktrumpet" even though it is true of this particular minister. How about we stop stereotyping everybody according to our prejudices?

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 08, 2021, 01:55:40 PM
It's also extremely tedious hearing people say every Tory is a "heartless spunktrumpet" even though it is true of this particular minister. How about we stop stereotyping everybody according to our prejudices?
I think you want to address that to Nye Scuppertea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on January 08, 2021, 02:03:55 PM
Portraying a centre leftist like Trentvoyager as somehow extremist left winger tedious, and also the sort of thing that you complain about others doing.

I will happily apologise if I'm wrong, this is my thinking....

Corbyn is the most extreme left-wing politician of note we have seen since the 1970's. As Trent was a very keen supporter of Corbyn it would be rational to conclude he is extremely left wing.

I complain when peoples views are dismissed or straw manned just because they are of a particular persuasion.

Would quite happily debate the merits of any political policy or ideology and have attempted to debate these with Trent, the debates don't get very far.

A recent exchange by way of example ended with Trent stating 'quite frankly you are one or two sandwiches short of a picnic'.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 08, 2021, 02:09:09 PM
I will happily apologise if I'm wrong, this is my thinking....

Corbyn is the most extreme left-wing politician of note we have seen since the 1970's. As Trent was a very keen supporter of Corbyn it would be rational to conclude he is extremely left wing.

I complain when peoples views are dismissed or straw manned just because they are of a particular persuasion.

Would quite happily debate the merits of any political policy or ideology and have attempted to debate these with Trent, the debates don't get very far.

A recent exchange by way of example ended with Trent stating 'quite frankly you are one or two sandwiches short of a picnic'.
I don't think Trentvoyager was a very strong supporter of Corbyn. So I think you have to provide evidence for your assertion. That you complain about just dismissing views because of strawmen seems exactly what you are doing here.

The rest of your post just reads as 'He started it'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on January 08, 2021, 02:13:14 PM
I think you want to address that to Nye Scuppertea.

Speaking of whom, not relevant to this thread but still, would like to know the meaning of Nye's latest name. I thought maybe 'Nye' referred to new year's eve but that is too obvious. Does he vandalise the tea table? Would love to know Nye, if you join this thread.

I liked and supported Jeremy Corbyn & wouldn't consider myself to be extreme left. Moderately left probably.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on January 08, 2021, 02:16:05 PM
Speaking of whom, not relevant to this thread but still, would like to know the meaning of Nye's latest name. I thought maybe 'Nye' referred to new year's eve but that is too obvious. Does he vandalise the tea table? Would love to know Nye, if you join this thread.

I liked and supported Jeremy Corbyn & wouldn't consider myself to be extreme left. Moderately left probably.

'Nice cuppa tea'

I dislike Corbyn he was too far to the left for my taste.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 08, 2021, 02:16:25 PM
Speaking of whom, not relevant to this thread but still, would like to know the meaning of Nye's latest name. I thought maybe 'Nye' referred to new year's eve but that is too obvious. Does he vandalise the tea table? Would love to know Nye, if you join this thread.

I liked and supported Jeremy Corbyn & wouldn't consider myself to be extreme left. Moderately left probably.
I think it's just creating a name as a homonym of Nice cup of tea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on January 08, 2021, 02:42:35 PM
D'oh! I thought it might have been taken from a fictional satirical character.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 08, 2021, 02:57:06 PM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN29916N
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw.com/en/germany-says-eu-wide-vaccination-strategy-is-the-right-way/a-56127798
The idea was that EU members would order the vaccine collectively so that all member states would get a fair share. Bilateral deals were discouraged in the name of solidarity. That's 30 million extra doses that could have been distributed amongst all the states. Now they're going all to Germany. One rule for them!

It seems the German order for 30m doses for Pfizer/BioNTech was made before the EU collective scheme was put in place. Presumably if they actually receive those stocks separately from an order via the EU scheme, their share of what the EU receives will be adjusted accordingly. Or, alternatively they could contribute them to the EU scheme.

But.. just to note ... just because someone has ordered x does not mean that they will receive x before other orders are satisfied.       Eg. UK ordered 40m Pfizer doses, but the number expected to be received kept dwindling ..down to 10m, and its not clear that we have received even 2m so far.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on January 08, 2021, 03:24:15 PM
I don't think Trentvoyager was a very strong supporter of Corbyn. So I think you have to provide evidence for your assertion.

I think neither have to provide evidence because we are merely stating what we think. If we do have to provide evidence then your statement "Trentvoyager was 'not' a very strong supporter of Corbyn" would also need evidence.

Quote
That you complain about just dismissing views because of strawmen seems exactly what you are doing here.

That wasn't my complaint, I said dismissing views or straw manning just because of their political persuasion. I have neither dismissed anyone's view or used a strawman JUST because of their political persuasion.

Quote
The rest of your post just reads as 'He started it'

No, I have found in the past that instead of getting into a debate on topic it descends into name calling, which rather poetically is where you ended. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 08, 2021, 03:31:17 PM
I think neither have to provide evidence because we are merely stating what we think. If we do have to provide evidence then your statement "Trentvoyager was 'not' a very strong supporter of Corbyn" would also need evidence.

That wasn't my complaint, I said dismissing views or straw manning just because of their political persuasion. I have neither dismissed anyone's view or used a strawman JUST because of their political persuasion.

No, I have found in the past that instead of getting into a debate on topic it descends into name calling, which rather poetically is where you ended. :)
You've made a claim to justify your position. Your-s is the positive claim. I have a lack of belief in it

Pointing out that your argument amounts only to 'He started it' isn't name calling.


Anyway given you aren't willing to evidence your position, apnd given this is fairly off topic, I will draw a line.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 08, 2021, 04:01:10 PM
Wrt. to Covid and government incompetence left/right tendencies probably don't make make any practical difference.

Clearly the gov, their lawyers, advisors, thousands of civil servants and police are just stupid, unable to put together rules and procedures that make sense and, of-course, unable to communicate them effectively!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-55560814   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on January 08, 2021, 05:44:02 PM
You've made a claim to justify your position. Your-s is the positive claim. I have a lack of belief in it

"I don't think Trentvoyager was a very strong supporter of Corbyn" is a belief.

Quote
Pointing out that your argument amounts only to 'He started it' isn't name calling.

Agree to disagree?

Quote
Anyway given you aren't willing to evidence your position, apnd given this is fairly off topic, I will draw a line.

Likewise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on January 08, 2021, 06:37:47 PM
Just to clarify, and hopefully we can leave , and return to the thread. I offered more than once that I didn't find Corbyn convincing. This wasn't based as such on policy but on the fact that he was not to my mind a good leader. So it proved. Anyhow, for whatever reason one poster seemed to find it amusing to characterise me as some kind of militant left wing firebrand. Which I decidedly am not. I feel much more comfortable with Starmer as leader as he represents more my particular view of the world.

That a poster clearly identifies themselves as  "right wing thought police" entertains me. Perhaps it will make them more restrained in future when they misrepresent other posters.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on January 08, 2021, 07:42:30 PM
Just to clarify, and hopefully we can leave , and return to the thread. I offered more than once that I didn't find Corbyn convincing. This wasn't based as such on policy but on the fact that he was not to my mind a good leader. So it proved.

I therefore, apologise, signs are that Starmer is pretty centre-left persuasion and if you more align with him would suggest you are not as far left as Corbyn.

Quote
Anyhow, for whatever reason one poster seemed to find it amusing to characterise me as some kind of militant left wing firebrand. Which I decidedly am not. I feel much more comfortable with Starmer as leader as he represents more my particular view of the world.

Again I apologise, I had no idea you thought of Corbyn as a militant left-wing firebrand. I do think of Corbyn, as I previously stated, as more from the extreme left, I didn't think he was militant or much of a firebrand.

Quote
That a poster clearly identifies themselves as  "right wing thought police" entertains me.

Well that is nice.

Quote
Perhaps it will make them more restrained in future when they misrepresent other posters.

No I don't think that follows, I think when engaging with people there is always a chance of misrepresenting them, it is a price you might have to pay to understand them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on January 08, 2021, 10:54:12 PM
'Nice cuppa tea'

I dislike Corbyn he was too far to the left for my taste.
Corbyn wasn't really all that far Left, just Old-Labour. He'd've fitted in well in Attlee's 1945 cabinet. Talking of which, yes "Nye Scuppertea"="Nice cuppa tea", and "Nye" is short for Aneurin, as in Nye Bevan.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on January 09, 2021, 08:50:34 AM
Corbyn was a polytechnic Trotskyite who never completed the course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on January 09, 2021, 09:36:30 AM
Corbyn was a polytechnic Trotskyite who never completed the course.
This is pure snobbery.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 09, 2021, 10:04:29 AM
This sort of ridiculous type of policing does real damage.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-55594244
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SweetPea on January 09, 2021, 10:12:26 AM
Love this from Liam Fox .... and the glare at the end:

Why are doctors doing pointless political correctness training?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eeiYuqABjJU
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on January 09, 2021, 11:41:16 AM
This is pure snobbery.

In what way?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on January 09, 2021, 11:56:11 AM
In what way?
He only went to Polytechnic and didn't get a degree, so he must be rubbish, unlike all the Eton-and-Oxbridge whizz-kids who are doing such a great job of running the country and tackling Covid. (He's not a Trot, either.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on January 09, 2021, 12:45:16 PM
He only went to Polytechnic and didn't get a degree, so he must be rubbish, unlike all the Eton-and-Oxbridge whizz-kids who are doing such a great job of running the country and tackling Covid. (He's not a Trot, either.)

As someone who left grammar school with jusr four O levels and worked in various low level jobs while preparing myself for eventual undergraduate study which resulted in me graduating at the age of 34, your characterisation of me is wildly inaccurate.  I suggest that you consider ridding yourself of lazy stereotypes and the habit of rushing to judgement.

Why don't you investigate the reason that Jeremy Corbyn did not complete his degree course in Trade Union Studies at NLP? Was not his election as party leader - apparently as a result of many young people being allowed to join the Labour party for the sum of £3 - well, "cultish" if nothing else?

And - to be absolutely fair - I suspect that I may (just) have been guilty of some stereotyping ...    ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 09, 2021, 01:57:17 PM
This sort of ridiculous type of policing does real damage.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-55594244

Apparently 90% follow the rules and 10% don't, so why on earth should Derbyshire police bother chasing a minority when they can hang around peaceful parkland and harass anyone they fancy without comeback?
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 09, 2021, 02:34:40 PM
Went out for walk around a pretty deserted Glasgow city centre. On going through George Square there was a small, possibly 80.people, protest about lockdown restrictions. No social distancing, no masks. At the time I passed there was no police presence though a couple of blocks away, a couple of police vans passed me.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 10, 2021, 04:41:13 PM
Amusing little thread

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1348239919404216321.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 11, 2021, 12:12:35 PM
   


Idiots.
The club should be fined and the team forced to self isolate for ten days, forfieting any games as a result.
(And I favour Celtic, nominally, at least)
Some impact

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/celtic-dubai-crisis-live-hoops-23295798.amp?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on January 11, 2021, 04:29:44 PM
I have an appointment this week for Friday afternoon for my first vaccine jab and 9th April for the second one.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 11, 2021, 04:34:57 PM
I have an appointment this week for Friday afternoon for my first vaccine jab and 9th April for the second one.
There is a whole idea that the over 80s will be 'vaccinated' by some time in Feb which plays on an equivocation about vaccination being one jab or 2
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on January 11, 2021, 09:11:42 PM
And in the land of bullshit nutcrackers bollock conspiracy theories:

https://www.israelhayom.com/2021/01/11/popular-rabbi-warns-followers-covid-vaccine-could-make-you-gay/

Now, what I want to know is what effect does it have on me?

Does it turn me straight, or make me super gay?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on January 11, 2021, 10:48:04 PM
And in the land of bullshit nutcrackers bollock conspiracy theories:

https://www.israelhayom.com/2021/01/11/popular-rabbi-warns-followers-covid-vaccine-could-make-you-gay/

Now, what I want to know is what effect does it have on me?

Does it turn me straight, or make me super gay?
Some moron at my place of work scrawled 5G nonsense in one of the cubicles in the gent's bogs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 12, 2021, 08:33:38 AM
And in the land of bullshit nutcrackers bollock conspiracy theories:

https://www.israelhayom.com/2021/01/11/popular-rabbi-warns-followers-covid-vaccine-could-make-you-gay/

Now, what I want to know is what effect does it have on me?

Does it turn me straight, or make me super gay?
Definitely the second. You get to wear a cape and can shoot gay rays out of your eyes that make straight people gay.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ekim on January 12, 2021, 10:05:12 AM
I had my second vaccine last week and my 7 days immunisation period will be up tomorrow.  I will be gay (happy) then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SweetPea on January 13, 2021, 12:00:52 PM
I had my second vaccine last week and my 7 days immunisation period will be up tomorrow.  I will be gay (happy) then.

Good stuff, Ekim. Hopefully I'll receive mine before mid-Feb.

Here's a little brightness amid the doom and gloom. Piglets show-jumping:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOHHLwlNmnM
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 13, 2021, 12:59:12 PM
More restrictions in Scotland


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55646778
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 13, 2021, 04:26:48 PM
And more deaths


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55653161
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 13, 2021, 07:35:16 PM
My mother has a date for her vaccination
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 14, 2021, 03:17:07 PM
Scary numbers about the impact on waiting lists.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55575112
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on January 14, 2021, 03:44:28 PM
Scary numbers about the impact on waiting lists.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55575112
I am very glad my (younger) son had his posterior ligamment repair done before Christmas ...  after a wait since March.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 15, 2021, 09:09:59 AM
For once this seems like the UK govt acting quite timeously. So hurrah. (Note: for those outwith Scotland, timeously is used to mean done in time) (Further note: for those outwith Scotland, outwith is a Scottish term, near synoymous with outside)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55671656
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 15, 2021, 09:48:11 AM
Now past 2 million deaths worldwide.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on January 15, 2021, 10:54:38 AM
For once this seems like the UK govt acting quite timeously. So hurrah. (Note: for those outwith Scotland, timeously is used to mean done in time) (Further note: for those outwith Scotland, outwith is a Scottish term, near synoymous with outside)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55671656

Didn't know "outwith" was a Scottish term, always been used in our family.

Anyway, to substance, I disagree about the timeously bit, if they should have gleaned anything about this virus at all it is that a delay is a mistake, and a deadly one at that. They knew about this new variant (Brazillian) on Sunday last, they should have stopped all travel on Monday, not sit on their hands until Thursday. I know there are difficulties doing this but they should have acted sooner, these are not ordinary times.

I'll bet you a bottom dollar the variant is here already.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 15, 2021, 10:56:52 AM
Big case deciding that insurers have to pay small firms for Covid losses.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55661702
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 15, 2021, 11:31:34 AM
Didn't know "outwith" was a Scottish term, always been used in our family.

Anyway, to substance, I disagree about the timeously bit, if they should have gleaned anything about this virus at all it is that a delay is a mistake, and a deadly one at that. They knew about this new variant (Brazillian) on Sunday last, they should have stopped all travel on Monday, not sit on their hands until Thursday. I know there are difficulties doing this but they should have acted sooner, these are not ordinary times.

I'll bet you a bottom dollar the variant is here already.

Your bottom dollar is safe
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55676637
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on January 15, 2021, 11:54:49 AM
Someone told Boris Johnson that five Brazilian people in the UK have the new variant of Covid-19. "Oh God, that's terrible news!" He said. "Er... how many is a Brazillion?".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 15, 2021, 02:57:39 PM
Or we can just clap for them.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55659851
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 15, 2021, 05:22:10 PM
All travel corridors closing from Monday.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55681861
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on January 15, 2021, 05:40:51 PM
Someone told Boris Johnson that five Brazilian people in the UK have the new variant of Covid-19. "Oh God, that's terrible news!" He said. "Er... how many is a Brazillion?".

Ironically, I read that as "bazillion" first time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on January 15, 2021, 05:46:20 PM
Your bottom dollar is safe
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55676637

As the story says, there are two variants, one of which is of concern and the other isn't. It's the one that isn't that is definitely here already.

However, it's my opinion that, by the time we find out about a new variant in another country, particularly a highly infectious one, it's almost certainly already in the UK. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 15, 2021, 07:10:13 PM
And good news on the roll out of the vaccine. Good achievement from the UK Govt, and devolved Govts


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55681861
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on January 16, 2021, 06:45:30 AM
Hardly felt the jab,but arm feels slightly bruised this morning. I have a card to say I've had it and have to take with me when going for second one in April.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on January 16, 2021, 09:28:40 AM
Hardly felt the jab,but arm feels slightly bruised this morning. I have a card to say I've had it and have to take with me when going for second one in April.
Ah.... But did you feel that monitor chip they inserted...the one which fries your brain if you don't think in their bubble?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 16, 2021, 09:49:52 AM
After all the efforts by Australia to keep Covid out, this has to feel like a gut punch to many Australians

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55683035

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/55687722



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ekim on January 16, 2021, 10:05:17 AM
Ah.... But did you feel that monitor chip they inserted...the one which fries your brain if you don't think in their bubble?
... and when you have the second jab, they insert the fish to go with the chips and the frying continues.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on January 16, 2021, 01:34:00 PM
Well, apart from all that! This morning I notice there is a further slight deterioration in my peripheral vision. This is probably coincidental, but I'll try and find out next week if there is any possible link with the vaccine. The knowledge will make no difference, but I always like to know all the facts!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 17, 2021, 10:12:51 AM
After all the efforts by Australia to keep Covid out, this has to feel like a gut punch to many Australians

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55683035

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/55687722

And some players are complaining about the isolation


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55693223

I have zero cubed sympathy
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 17, 2021, 01:11:31 PM
More players in quarantine

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/55695295
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Owlswing on January 18, 2021, 10:40:47 AM

I am not sure if this has been posted before, but I found it interesting.

https://nautil.us/issue/94/evolving/we-didnt-evolve-for-this?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

Owlswing

)O(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 18, 2021, 11:13:04 AM
So the Tories will abstain on the extension of the £20 bump in Universal Credit.

Quick prediction: at some point it will be extended and they will take credit for it as this is just to avoid it looking like a Labpur victory.




https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55695301
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 18, 2021, 03:15:02 PM
Stop digging, Neil!


https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/55708298
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 19, 2021, 10:24:37 AM
Blunt but fair from Nick Kyrgios

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55713453
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on January 19, 2021, 10:56:54 AM
Blunt but fair from Nick Kyrgios

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55713453

Just goes to show how top sports stars can be so out of touch with the real world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 19, 2021, 11:04:17 AM
Just goes to show how top sports stars can be so out of touch with the real world.
You should have a look at Neil Lennon's rant yesterday. To be fair he's about to lose his job but unhinged. I think tons of the people in Melbourne are going to be pissed off with this given the length and severity of their lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 19, 2021, 11:46:49 AM
From BBC live feed


UK deaths more than 40% above normal levels



The Office for National Statistics released data on Tuesday

The number of people who have died with Covid is now close to 96,000, according to an analysis of death certificates.

The figures come after a further 6,586 deaths involving Covid were registered in the UK in the week to 8 January.

The data from the Office for National Statistics - which looks at England and Wales - and its counterparts in Scotland and Northern Ireland is different from the daily totals given by the government, which look at deaths within 28 days of a positive test. Those figures show that up until Monday there had been nearly 90,000 deaths.

Overall, the total number of deaths reported are more than 40% above what is expected at this time of year, although delays registering deaths over the festive period are thought to have contributed to some of the rise.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 19, 2021, 12:27:14 PM
Just talked to my mother after her jag. All went fine. Hurrah.

I did stress though that she shouldn't change her behaviour. Too many of those I have seen interviewed after receiving it seem to think it means it's ok to ignore the current rules.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on January 19, 2021, 12:30:26 PM
Quote
Just talked to my mother after her jag.

New car?  ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 19, 2021, 12:54:26 PM
New car?  ;)
The jag/jab divide
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on January 19, 2021, 01:32:41 PM
You should have a look at Neil Lennon's rant yesterday. To be fair he's about to lose his job but unhinged. I think tons of the people in Melbourne are going to be pissed off with this given the length and severity of their lockdown.

Read about Neil Lennon as well. The bloke's an idiot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 19, 2021, 06:31:56 PM
Slightly concerning, if not entirely surprising, news from israel

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/19/single-covid-vaccine-dose-in-israel-less-effective-than-we-hoped
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 19, 2021, 06:38:24 PM
Politicians being arses


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-55720106
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 20, 2021, 10:33:18 AM
Don't feed the mice!

.https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/55730099
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 20, 2021, 11:43:40 AM
Priti Patel the Home Secretary calls out lack of action by Priti Patel the Home Secretary.


https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-politics-55733357?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 20, 2021, 12:17:47 PM
Priti Patel the Home Secretary calls out lack of action by Priti Patel the Home Secretary.


https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-politics-55733357?__twitter_impression=true

Presumably she argued for stronger controls but was overruled? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 20, 2021, 12:27:32 PM
Presumably she argued for stronger controls but was overruled?
And if she felt that strongly about should have resigned. She accepted cabinet collective responsibility then but has just broken it with this. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 20, 2021, 02:45:32 PM
And if she felt that strongly about should have resigned. She accepted cabinet collective responsibility then but has just broken it with this.

Does "collective responsibility" mean that no minister can admit that the "cabinet" made mistakes earlier?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 20, 2021, 02:50:35 PM
Does "collective responsibility" mean that no minister can admit that the "cabinet" made mistakes earlier?
Not when saying they disagreed with the decision at the time.
 ETA and remaining in post throughout.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 20, 2021, 03:01:14 PM
Aye, right

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-partygoers-claimed-they-had-not-heard-of-the-pandemic-as-police-reveal-breaches-over-the-weekend-12191416
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: The Accountant, OBE, KC on January 20, 2021, 03:07:21 PM
Not sure if this has already been mentioned but apparently surveys show there is a higher percentage of BAME people who don't want the vaccine.

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/ethnic-minorities-vaccine-hesitancy-covid-b900127.html

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9165793/Why-72-black-Britons-say-unlikely-Covid-19-jab-writes-SIR-GEOFFREY-PALMER.html#comments

I really can't relate to the idea of trusting people more because they look like me/ are the same colour as me. I can understand trusting people who have had similar experiences to me and can relate to my perspective but even so they might still disagree with my decisions. Regardless of a person's background or skin colour or culture I would be persuaded by the language they use, their tone and demeanour, the evidence supporting their opinion, their expertise, training and technical knowledge.

I could understand trusting people because they converse in a way that you are used to associating with people who are honest, professional, knowledgeable and trustworthy. Which rules out most of the Tory Cabinet. So to convince people who are less educated or speak differently from scientists, doctors and politicians, they presumably need to get people who speak with the same vernacular, dress the same way, live in the same neighbourhoods to tell people to get vaccinated.

But I am not sure how uneducated, unprofessional people can be scientists and doctors without changing the way they speak and dress. When they become scientists and doctors they start talking like scientists and doctors and dress like professionals, and ordinary people will feel unable to relate to them and would presumably therefore distrust them. People usually adopt the mannerisms required for the job they do because they are trained that way by someone more experienced in the job.

Covid has affected BAME communities disproportionately. Can't see the sense of BAME people putting themselves at risk of Covid by not getting vaccinated. Also I hope the lockdown and delay of treatments of non-Covid illnesses does not continue after the vaccine is rolled out because the NHS cannot cope with the number of unvaccinated Covid patients.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 20, 2021, 03:16:21 PM
Not sure it has been raised, Gabriella. I meant to after watching Channel 4 news reporting on it but I got distracted. The problem is wider than the BAME community and the virus. AS we see Trump leave, there are a lot of people who voted for him because he didn't sound like a 'normal' politician


Also the fact that the community has been more affected by Covid, then makes a narrative that it is somehow aimed at that purpose stronger. Hence easier to make the vaccine suspect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on January 20, 2021, 03:37:18 PM
Not sure it has been raised, Gabriella. I meant to after watching Channel 4 news reporting on it but I got distracted. The problem is wider than the BAME community and the virus. AS we see Trump leave, there are a lot of people who voted for him because he didn't sound like a 'normal' politician


Also the fact that the community has been more affected by Covid, then makes a narrative that it is somehow aimed at that purpose stronger. Hence easier to make the vaccine suspect.
All very gloomy and, even more depressingly, probably really believable.

On a different note, does anybody have any thoughts on having an oxymeter (sp?) at home? The item on 'Inside Health' yesterday evening on Radio 4 was interesting. It was stressed, though, that only machines with a kite mark should be trusted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 20, 2021, 04:22:58 PM
From BBC live feed, horrendous news:


UK records new daily high of 1,820 Covid deaths

A further 1,820 people have died in the UK within 28 days of a positive Covid test - the biggest figure reported in a single day since the pandemic began.

It means the total number of deaths by that measure is now 93,290.

Yesterday's figure of 1,610 deaths was the previous highest daily total.

Another 38,905 positive Covid cases have also been reported in the past 24 hours

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on January 20, 2021, 05:01:00 PM
Not when saying they disagreed with the decision at the time.
 ETA and remaining in post throughout.

That's how it works normally. You don't have to resign just because you disagree with a collective decision. If you did, there would be two or three resignations after every cabinet meeting.

Of course, you also shouldn't be throwing the rest of the cabinet under the bus several months later.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 20, 2021, 05:04:50 PM
That's how it works normally. You don't have to resign just because you disagree with a collective decision. If you did, there would be two or three resignations after every cabinet meeting.

Of course, you also shouldn't be throwing the rest of the cabinet under the bus several months later.
That's what I said
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on January 20, 2021, 05:09:32 PM
From BBC live feed, horrendous news:


UK records new daily high of 1,820 Covid deaths

A further 1,820 people have died in the UK within 28 days of a positive Covid test - the biggest figure reported in a single day since the pandemic began.

It means the total number of deaths by that measure is now 93,290.

Yesterday's figure of 1,610 deaths was the previous highest daily total.
Pretty bad, but it's actually "yesterday's news". This is the delayed reaction from the extremely high infection rates from a couple of weeks ago.
Quote
Another 38,905 positive Covid cases have also been reported in the past 24 hours
This is actually good news. The infections are coming down from the stratospheric heights of a couple of weeks ago. This means the new lockdown and possibly the vaccinations are working.

The overall message of today's figures should be cautious optimism.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 20, 2021, 05:14:05 PM
Pretty bad, but it's actually "yesterday's news". This is the delayed reaction from the extremely high infection rates from a couple of weeks ago.This is actually good news. The infections are coming down from the stratospheric heights of a couple of weeks ago. This means the new lockdown and possibly the vaccinations are working.

The overall message of today's figures should be cautious optimism.
  I think referring to 1820 deaths as -yesterday's news shows a severe lack of empathy. It also brushes away any responsibility for the death rates.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 20, 2021, 09:23:56 PM
This is surely worrying for the delay strategy but also doesn't feel like the right approach to those who do vaccinate for the second time after the recommended time.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-vaccines-nhs-hospitals-second-dose-b1790217.html?r=22629
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on January 21, 2021, 09:56:31 AM
I had my first jab this morning. It was a thoroughly underwhelming experience.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on January 21, 2021, 09:57:45 AM
I know it's not good for my blood pressure but I watched Piers Morgan interview Gavin Williamson on GMTV this morning.

Can someone please explain to me why Williamson is even an MP, let alone the Education Secretary?

His answers on education and how covid impacts on it have to be seen to be believed.

He was totally abysmal. It was like watching an android that had got stuck in some kind of feedback loop that just keeps repeating stock phrases over and over again. It was unbelievably excruciating.

Clip here: https://tinyurl.com/williamsongmtv
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jakswan on January 21, 2021, 01:15:54 PM
I know it's not good for my blood pressure but I watched Piers Morgan interview Gavin Williamson on GMTV this morning.

Can someone please explain to me why Williamson is even an MP, let alone the Education Secretary?

His answers on education and how covid impacts on it have to be seen to be believed.

He was totally abysmal. It was like watching an android that had got stuck in some kind of feedback loop that just keeps repeating stock phrases over and over again. It was unbelievably excruciating.

Clip here: https://tinyurl.com/williamsongmtv

Agreed!

If I were running the country I'd introduce a law applying to politicians 'if you fail to answer question 3 times it will amount to instant dismissal'.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 21, 2021, 01:44:12 PM
Agreed!

If I were running the country I'd introduce a law applying to politicians 'if you fail to answer question 3 times it will amount to instant dismissal'.
To he clear, I think he's got an incredibly shit job to do in an incredibly shit time buy he's managed to match that by being incredibly shit at it. Watching the interview was watching someone who knows they are not up to the job. He looked broken  subservient, devoid of belief. I remember Estelle Morris resigning because she didn't think she was up to it but I suspect she had more self awareness than Williamson.


In the position he's in, all he has is his script. He's terrified of offering some hostage to fortune, and has no confidence to ditch the script. It would be a mercy if he was sacked but Johnson is worried that would be seen to reflect on him. The govts in the UK are so locked into denying any fault on this when many of us might appreciate the honesty that  leadership is a forgotten idea.

He needed in the case of the 'when will the schools go back?' question be much more robust and call it out as an essentially stupid question. The correct answer was 'Of course, I have no fecking idea because we are in the middle of an unprecentdented situation, and making silly predictions with not enough facts would be the act of an idiot'. But it's obvious why that isn't a good answer because it's been undermined by previous answers throughout the last year.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 21, 2021, 02:05:47 PM
Glastonbury cancelled again. Not much of a surprise.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-55746293
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 21, 2021, 02:25:56 PM
Very scary article


https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/can-germany-stop-the-new-supervirus-a-e9ffc207-0015-4330-8361-b306f6053e15?fbclid=IwAR0Svu3L09X2xRJTzEspjWfBeR-FXhQ9SKV0TniHRB07pVJcFZfzcH_EUrU
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on January 21, 2021, 03:49:45 PM
I know it's not good for my blood pressure but I watched Piers Morgan interview Gavin Williamson on GMTV this morning.

Can someone please explain to me why Williamson is even an MP, let alone the Education Secretary?

His answers on education and how covid impacts on it have to be seen to be believed.

He was totally abysmal. It was like watching an android that had got stuck in some kind of feedback loop that just keeps repeating stock phrases over and over again. It was unbelievably excruciating.

Clip here: https://tinyurl.com/williamsongmtv
That's one link I certainly will avoid at all costs. I agree with what you say. How that man can think he is any use at all as an Education Secretary is beyond understanding.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 21, 2021, 04:32:18 PM
Fire in vaccine plant, 5 dead.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-55753586
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 22, 2021, 09:03:10 AM

I have to admit that before Covid, QR just seemed like a bit of tech that had missed its time, but it was justwaiting

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55579480
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 22, 2021, 11:12:48 AM
Hope they get the Torah thrown at them.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55764673
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 22, 2021, 02:19:07 PM

I find it interesting that in this report about whether the Olympics go ahead this year that the majority of the Japanese public are against it, yet as with the Australian Open, that may well be ignored.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/55762303
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on January 22, 2021, 03:05:10 PM
Hope they get the Torah thrown at them. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55764673
The bit about a third party handling the gig's a bit iffy. When we hire out the church hall for private functions (and our rates mean we won't profit by doing so), we know exactly who, when, why and times of occupancy - we have to, because of fire regs
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 23, 2021, 02:24:00 PM
Resigned because they realised they had too. Up till now they have been utterly tone deaf


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-55767262
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on January 23, 2021, 04:02:56 PM
Resigned because they realised they had too. Up till now they have been utterly tone deaf


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-55767262

Total prats! >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on January 24, 2021, 09:46:42 AM
So as we approach, or have reached, depending on the method of calculation used, 100,000 dead from Covid and incompetence, I reflect on the fact that I live in Worthing a town with a population of around 100,000.

That's an entire town with all it's people gone.

No daytrippers on the promenade, or walking on the pier to watch the fishermen land their catch. No chips purchased only to be stolen by those vicious masters of the sky, seagulls. The roads unused and uncared for with weeds cracking the surface of the tarmac. The shops shuttered up forever with no chance of a Mike Ashley takeover bid.

No stray enthusiasts searching for blue plaques relating to Jane Austen, Harold Pinter or Alma Cogan. No one to enjoy the wonderful sunrises over the English channel. No one to marvel at the ever changing moods of the sea.

Fanciful you say? Perhaps, but this is what is happening in a fragmented fashion across our lands.

And I feel so angry, and so sad. And all I can do is sit here, follow the rules and hope that it gets better.

Writing to my MP makes no difference. He defends the party line every time, and despite all evidence to the contrary, claims that the government are doing their very best in an unprecedented situation.

All I want to say is "very best" MY ARSE in my best Jim Royle impersonation. If you were even doing just average work you should have realised your mistakes from the first wave and not repeated them again and again.

I do not understand why heads are not on spikes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on January 24, 2021, 10:10:58 AM
I know it's not good for my blood pressure but I watched Piers Morgan interview Gavin Williamson on GMTV this morning.

Can someone please explain to me why Williamson is even an MP, let alone the Education Secretary?

Because his constituents got sloppy and lazily voted Tory.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 24, 2021, 10:38:55 AM

Grant Shapps should resign over this but ministerial responsibility is not a thing now.


https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/23/minister-faces-fury-over-mass-covid-outbreak-at-top-government-agency?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 24, 2021, 10:40:03 AM
Because his constituents got sloppy and lazily voted Tory.
Blaming voters is a guarantee to losing again
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on January 24, 2021, 11:30:16 AM
Blaming voters is a guarantee to losing again
Who is ultimately responsible though....that’s right the voters.

Are you suggesting feeding the voters an ersatz reality where the voter is right but betrayed in a way the voter could not have forseen?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 24, 2021, 11:34:40 AM
Who is ultimately responsible though....that’s right the voters.

Are you suggesting feeding the voters an ersatz reality where the voter is right but betrayed in a way the voter could not have forseen?
I am saying blaming then it will mean you lose. If political parties have no responsibility for losing votes  they are pointless.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on January 25, 2021, 10:48:54 AM
  I think referring to 1820 deaths as -yesterday's news shows a severe lack of empathy.
No it doesn't. It's addressing facts.

Quote
It also brushes away any responsibility for the death rates.
No it doesn't. Don't worry, there are plenty of things you can bash the government with even while accepting that things are improving.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 25, 2021, 10:56:26 AM
No it doesn't. It's addressing facts.
No it doesn't. Don't worry, there are plenty of things you can bash the government with even while accepting that things are improving.
Deaths of 1820 people is not just about facts. That you want to portray it that way illustrates your lack of empathy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on January 25, 2021, 11:07:56 AM
Deaths of 1820 people is not just about facts. That you want to portray it that way illustrates your lack of empathy.
But I am right. Things are improving. You can't argue against that by insulting me.

The tragedy that led to those 1,820 deaths happened at the beginning of January when the infections went out of control, not on the day they were reported.

Read this thread. It's mostly an unremitting tale of doom and gloom. Don't you want to hear some good news? Why do you need to try to discredit it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on January 25, 2021, 11:14:45 AM
Deaths of 1820 people is not just about facts. That you want to portray it that way illustrates your lack of empathy.
Bloody sympathy! I hate that trendy word "empathy" - it's like "sympathy", but cold and clinical, with all the warmth removed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 25, 2021, 11:32:48 AM
Bloody sympathy! I hate that trendy word "empathy" - it's like "sympathy", but cold and clinical, with all the warmth removed.
They mean different things, and empathy here is the correct one since it's about the ability to understand the feelings of others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 25, 2021, 11:35:06 AM
But I am right. Things are improving. You can't argue against that by insulting me.

The tragedy that led to those 1,820 deaths happened at the beginning of January when the infections went out of control, not on the day they were reported.

Read this thread. It's mostly an unremitting tale of doom and gloom. Don't you want to hear some good news? Why do you need to try to discredit it?
  Because it was the worst day for deaths we've had. Go and tell the families devastated by that that their deaths were good news,
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on January 25, 2021, 11:45:54 AM
They mean different things, and empathy here is the correct one since it's about the ability to understand the feelings of others.
No they don't, and sympathy means that as well. Please explain why you think the meanings are different.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 25, 2021, 11:51:07 AM
No they don't, and sympathy means that as well. Please explain why you think the meanings are different.
See below.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/sympathy-empathy-difference#:~:text=Sympathy%20%28from%20sympath%C4%93s%2C%20%22having%20common%20feelings%2C%20sympathetic%22%29%20has,tend%20to%20think%20of%20situations%20involving%20emotional%20pain%3A
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on January 25, 2021, 11:53:31 AM
Bollocks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on January 25, 2021, 12:00:14 PM
Some good news. (https://uk.yahoo.com/news/london-coronavirus-cases-borough-revealed-072056589.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on January 25, 2021, 12:10:31 PM
  Because it was the worst day for deaths we've had. Go and tell the families devastated by that that their deaths were good news,

You are lying. I did not say the deaths are good news. I said that the overall figures were grounds for cautious optimism because the infections were going down. Again I ask, what have you got against me pointing out that there is some good news?

This line of attack by you is utterly contemptible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 25, 2021, 12:17:09 PM
You are lying. I did not say the deaths are good news. I said that the overall figures were grounds for cautious optimism because the infections were going down. Again I ask, what have you got against me pointing out that there is some good news?

This line of attack by you is utterly contemptible.
  You called the deaths of 1820 people 'yesterday's news'.

And in pointing that out, you think that I am trying to discredit 'good news'. If you didn't mean to imply that then you need to write more clearly.



 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 25, 2021, 12:19:25 PM
Some good news. (https://uk.yahoo.com/news/london-coronavirus-cases-borough-revealed-072056589.html)
Lots of good news.


Have to admit that I am a bit confused by this paragraph

'More patients are relying on mechanical ventilators – some 1,217, up from 1,206 a week ago. This is nearly twice as many as the number on ventilators in the first wave, which peaked at 5,201 in April last year.'


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 25, 2021, 12:25:09 PM

'Bubble' concert

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-55794674
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 25, 2021, 10:06:33 PM

UK's vaccination programme on a different league currently. Points to them .

https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-vaccine-europe-hit-commission-target-rollout-5-times-faster/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 25, 2021, 10:24:45 PM
Brussels asks Belguim for an explanation


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/25/belgium-eu-travel-advice-protect-covid-gains-cross-border-ban-government-non-essential-infection-europe?fbclid=IwAR2LVCXkw7rZ6XiU-k7RjKz0nyHVTpkyjz8u8RU8gclWDr_nOpk-pF4KB1g
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 25, 2021, 10:27:50 PM
The sweet sickly smell of corruption

https://schoolsweek.co.uk/invicta-academy-drops-top-tories-sponsor-tag-after-backlash-over-founders-comments/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 25, 2021, 10:40:22 PM
More on the issues with supply affecting the EU. The companies seem to have over promised.



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/25/eu-threatens-to-block-covid-vaccine-exports-amid-astrazeneca-shortfall?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR0hnp5agXNaw2GNmWFXcMdINT-G0bUbXe_VMUQxdQdyC6wAtuDGMgQD6Qo
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on January 25, 2021, 10:52:38 PM
More on the issues with supply affecting the EU. The companies seem to have over promised.



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/25/eu-threatens-to-block-covid-vaccine-exports-amid-astrazeneca-shortfall?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR0hnp5agXNaw2GNmWFXcMdINT-G0bUbXe_VMUQxdQdyC6wAtuDGMgQD6Qo

I reckon astrazeneca is giving preferntial treatment to certain countries, backhanders and everything, and that's why they can't fulfill their contract with the EU.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 26, 2021, 07:05:20 PM
100,162
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 26, 2021, 09:41:18 PM
I reckon astrazeneca is giving preferntial treatment to certain countries, backhanders and everything, and that's why they can't fulfill their contract with the EU.

https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2021/01/26/news/interview_pascal_soriot_ceo_astrazeneca_coronavirus_covid_vaccines-284349628/

Good interview with Pascal Soriot, CEO of AstraZeneca, on the supply issues in Europe.

What he describes seems very reasonable imo.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 27, 2021, 10:07:46 AM
Have to admit that we've been tempted to get a dog over the plague year but it's not really feasible


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-55719338
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 27, 2021, 10:18:13 AM
While I might agree with some of this, the use of a blanket 'scientists say' is not accurate based on the report.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55820178
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 27, 2021, 10:42:19 AM
While I might agree with some of this, the use of a blanket 'scientists say' is not accurate based on the report.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55820178

Scientists or not there have certainly been a lot of bad decisions.

Anyway, I suppose we should prepare for the offer, later today, of another half-bowl of soup - to be delivered after it has gone cold...

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 27, 2021, 11:27:22 AM
Just ffs!


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55821623
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on January 27, 2021, 11:35:45 AM
Just ffs!


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55821623
Twenty years in prison? Fed and sheltered with TV etc probably? Far, far too lenient. This is where the old stocks, with public humiliation seems more appropriate.

thank goodness the utter stupidity was discovered - I wonder how, but an award for that person whoever it was.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 27, 2021, 01:14:13 PM
Hope this is a false alarm


http://www.wrexham.com/news/bomb-disposal-unit-attends-ongoing-incident-on-wrexham-industrial-estate-wockhardt-factory-closed-off-199680.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on January 27, 2021, 02:08:20 PM
Hope this is a false alarm


http://www.wrexham.com/news/bomb-disposal-unit-attends-ongoing-incident-on-wrexham-industrial-estate-wockhardt-factory-closed-off-199680.html

So do I. :o Our youngest daughter's in-laws live not far from that site.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 27, 2021, 02:11:29 PM
English schools not 're-opening' till March. No ta huge surprise but I do wish the reports would be clearer that it means in some sense reopen fully given the numbers of kids currently in schools.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55828952
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 27, 2021, 02:36:47 PM
Feels too little, too late


https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-to-introduce-mandatory-hotel-quarantine-for-travellers-from-red-list-countries-12200338
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 27, 2021, 04:10:17 PM
So do I. :o Our youngest daughter's in-laws live not far from that site.
Made it to BBC

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55822838
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 27, 2021, 04:33:34 PM
Hope this is a false alarm


http://www.wrexham.com/news/bomb-disposal-unit-attends-ongoing-incident-on-wrexham-industrial-estate-wockhardt-factory-closed-off-199680.html
So there appears to have been a controlled explosion and roads are now reopened
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on January 27, 2021, 06:32:34 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55822838

The Vaccine plant is open for business again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 27, 2021, 08:15:03 PM
Covid takes us back to the 1950s


https://www.glamourmagazine.co.uk/article/government-coronavirus-advert-sexist
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 28, 2021, 07:04:14 AM
EU losing plot on vaccines



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/27/eu-covid-vaccine-row-astrazeneca-european-commission?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR1Wl_oCyGk-Gl76ouWVZsbMHLc0j-6wvcW2LlJj7-OAunnpm6bQeCU9jA0
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on January 28, 2021, 12:14:14 PM
EU losing plot on vaccines



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/27/eu-covid-vaccine-row-astrazeneca-european-commission?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR1Wl_oCyGk-Gl76ouWVZsbMHLc0j-6wvcW2LlJj7-OAunnpm6bQeCU9jA0
Although I have to say there is a significant level of hypocrisy from Gove on the radio this morning.

His line - that the UK should receive the vaccines they have ordered, paid for as scheduled in the contract the UK had signed. Fair enough, but frankly that seems to be all the EU are expecting too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 28, 2021, 12:28:56 PM
Although I have to say there is a significant level of hypocrisy from Gove on the radio this morning.

His line - that the UK should receive the vaccines they have ordered, paid for as scheduled in the contract the UK had signed. Fair enough, but frankly that seems to be all the EU are expecting too.
Though part of the reason that we appear to getting a supply is that UK govt worked at setting up more manufacturing in the UK.


The bigger problem though is overall vaccine nationalism as this is a stushie between 2 rich areas both of which are getting a substantially higher % of vaccines than their population %. The whole of Covid has been light on international cooperation outwith of the drug companies
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 28, 2021, 12:50:35 PM
And more EU plot loss

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/28/belgium-launches-investigation-of-astrazeneca-vaccine-plant?fbclid=IwAR3AZCLLh6moyzPbsdSrNzZk5GNNyI4inC_9Xw9_RsJUt1mgxxAcXA8qWXU
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on January 28, 2021, 12:55:58 PM
Though part of the reason that we appear to getting a supply is that UK govt worked at setting up more manufacturing in the UK.
But there has also been development manufacturing facilities within the EU too - and let's not forget that I think all the Pfizer vaccine we have been using has been manufactured in the EU.

The bigger problem though is overall vaccine nationalism as this is a stushie between 2 rich areas both of which are getting a substantially higher % of vaccines than their population %. The whole of Covid has been light on international cooperation outwith of the drug companies
True - but it is naive to think that the richer countries wont use their money and influence to ensure they get vaccine supplies as fast as possible.

And actually in that statement perhaps lies the solution - for rich countries to be able to vaccine their whole populations very rapidly there needs to be massive manufacturing capacity and those rich countries will invest in that capacity. As the richer countries head towards everyone being vaccinated that capacity can shift to providing vast amounts of vaccines to less developed countries - but you need that capacity in the first place.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 28, 2021, 01:04:46 PM
But there has also been development manufacturing facilities within the EU too - and let's not forget that I think all the Pfizer vaccine we have been using has been manufactured in the EU.
True - but it is naive to think that the richer countries wont use their money and influence to ensure they get vaccine supplies as fast as possible.

And actually in that statement perhaps lies the solution - for rich countries to be able to vaccine their whole populations very rapidly there needs to be massive manufacturing capacity and those rich countries will invest in that capacity. As the richer countries head towards everyone being vaccinated that capacity can shift to providing vast amounts of vaccines to less developed countries - but you need that capacity in the first place.
Yes, but the UK govt isn't trying to say it will somehow commandeer the amounts produced in Europe, and the capacity vs UK population is a considerably higher ratio than the EU capacity vs population.
.
As to overall vaccine nationalism part of the issue is that they are still being produced under a licence system that gives a lot of power to the drug companies. Globally we should have been looking to expand production as wide as possible rather than tye rich countries getting all the benefits first. In addition this approach will greatly extend the virus being unchecked in huge numbers of the global population, increasing possibilities of variation
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on January 28, 2021, 01:11:53 PM
Yes, but the UK govt isn't trying to say it will somehow commandeer the amounts produced in Europe, and the capacity vs UK population is a considerably higher ratio than the EU capacity vs population.
But that is based on a presumption that vaccines produced in the UK are for home consumption, and those produced in the EU for EU consumption.

That isn't the case - various countries and groups of countries have entered into contracts with commercial organisations to supply vaccines - I doubt those contracts make any mention of where those vaccines are produced.

And I'm not sure it is the case that the UK has higher production capacity per capital than the rest of europe. I've certainly not seen any data to indicate this - so if you think that is true, can you provide the evidence please.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 28, 2021, 02:00:06 PM
But that is based on a presumption that vaccines produced in the UK are for home consumption, and those produced in the EU for EU consumption.

That isn't the case - various countries and groups of countries have entered into contracts with commercial organisations to supply vaccines - I doubt those contracts make any mention of where those vaccines are produced.

And I'm not sure it is the case that the UK has higher production capacity per capital than the rest of europe. I've certainly not seen any data to indicate this - so if you think that is true, can you provide the evidence please.
That the EU are wanting vaccines produced in the UK to cover a shortfall, and that the numbers that are being promised to the EU from EU production are in numbers of5million or so show this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 28, 2021, 02:01:49 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/26/why-has-astrazeneca-cut-vaccines-to-eu-and-will-it-impact-uk-

Based on the delivery plans and various remarks by Soriot, you can make a rough estimate that the EU plants are producing about 3m doses per week compared to the UK production of 2m. We could assume that the UK plants are running with max yield, with the EU plants somewhere around a third of that. They have also had yield issues in the States and Australia, although Indian production seems to be going OK.

Rather than indulge in legalistic wrangling it would be best for the EU to do what they can support AZ in getting the EU plants up to full capacity?   

Also, all (rich) countries have contracts for a number of different vaccines as there was no guarantee that any particular tech could deliver to any given schedule. The EU bet big on Sanofi which didn't work out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on January 28, 2021, 02:11:43 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55844987

Someone has been arrested in connection with the suspicious package sent to the vaccine site in Wrexham.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 28, 2021, 02:34:17 PM
Covid takes us back to the 1950s


https://www.glamourmagazine.co.uk/article/government-coronavirus-advert-sexist
And advert withdrawn


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55844367
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on January 28, 2021, 03:25:17 PM
That the EU are wanting vaccines produced in the UK to cover a shortfall, and that the numbers that are being promised to the EU from EU production are in numbers of5million or so show this.
No - your assumption makes no sense, unless you think that every vaccine contract signed by a country is for x million vaccines produced in that country - that isn't the case and has never been the case. There is no suggestion that all the vaccines bought by the EU will be manufactured in the EU, nor that all the vaccines bought by the UK will be manufactured in the UK. So the suggestion that the EU want vaccines manufactured in the UK to cover a 'shortfall' is meaningless.

Let's not forget that the UK has ordered 40 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine - as far as I am aware every one of those doses will come from the EU as there is no Pfizer vaccine manufacturing facility in the UK. Is the UK wanting Pfizer vaccines produced in the EU because it has a 'shortfall' - of course not, it ordered 40 million doses and it, quite reasonably expects those 40 million doses to be delivered (in this case from EU manufacturing facilities). No doubt the UK would be pretty hacked off if Pfizer told them 'sorry chum, you aren't getting your (EU manufactured) vaccines because the EU wants them. Likewise the EU have every right to expect their AZ vaccines contract to be honoured too, regardless of whether they are being manufactured. And far more AZ vaccines are being manufactured in the EU than Pfizer ones are being manufactured in the UK AFAIK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 28, 2021, 03:40:55 PM
No - your assumption makes no sense, unless you think that every vaccine contract signed by a country is for x million vaccines produced in that country - that isn't the case and has never been the case. There is no suggestion that all the vaccines bought by the EU will be manufactured in the EU, nor that all the vaccines bought by the UK will be manufactured in the UK. So the suggestion that the EU want vaccines manufactured in the UK to cover a 'shortfall' is meaningless.

Let's not forget that the UK has ordered 40 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine - as far as I am aware every one of those doses will come from the EU as there is no Pfizer vaccine manufacturing facility in the UK. Is the UK wanting Pfizer vaccines produced in the EU because it has a 'shortfall' - of course not, it ordered 40 million doses and it, quite reasonably expects those 40 million doses to be delivered (in this case from EU manufacturing facilities). No doubt the UK would be pretty hacked off if Pfizer told them 'sorry chum, you aren't getting your (EU manufactured) vaccines because the EU wants them. Likewise the EU have every right to expect their AZ vaccines contract to be honoured too, regardless of whether they are being manufactured. And far more AZ vaccines are being manufactured in the EU than Pfizer ones are being manufactured in the UK AFAIK.
You're very confused. If I claim there is a greater capacity per head to produce vaccines in the UK than the EU, where those vaccines are then used is of no impact to that statement
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on January 28, 2021, 04:03:42 PM
You're very confused. If I claim there is a greater capacity per head to produce vaccines in the UK than the EU, where those vaccines are then used is of no impact to that statement
But you have failed to provide any evidence that there is greater capacity to manufacture vaccines per head in the UK rather than in the EU. Until or unless you do that any discussion about the impact of 'greater capacity' in one place or the other is, frankly, moot.

Off you pop and find the evidence to support your claim of greater capacity per head to produce vaccines in the UK than the EU.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 28, 2021, 04:40:33 PM
But you have failed to provide any evidence that there is greater capacity to manufacture vaccines per head in the UK rather than in the EU. Until or unless you do that any discussion about the impact of 'greater capacity' in one place or the other is, frankly, moot.

Off you pop and find the evidence to support your claim of greater capacity per head to produce vaccines in the UK than the EU.

Apart from that being clearly implied by the attempts by the EU to get vaccines from the UK - which given they are already behind in vaccination by around 8% of the population - their motivation to do so is based on the lack of vaccines in Europe creating the shortfall.


And as Udayana also covered that's what can be worked out from the details here.



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/26/why-has-astrazeneca-cut-vaccines-to-eu-and-will-it-impact-uk-
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on January 28, 2021, 04:54:46 PM

Apart from that being clearly implied by the attempts by the EU to get vaccines from the UK - which given they are already behind in vaccination by around 8% of the population - their motivation to do so is based on the lack of vaccines in Europe creating the shortfall.
Which tells us nothing about the capacity for manufacture of the vaccine. You might have said that all of the early vaccinations in the UK were sourced from the EU (as they were Pfizer ones) and therefore the UK must have lacked manufacturing capacity. That would be a non-sense statement, just as your comment is non-sense without evidence to back it up.


And as Udayana also covered that's what can be worked out from the details here.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/26/why-has-astrazeneca-cut-vaccines-to-eu-and-will-it-impact-uk-
Where in the article does it give vaccine manufacturing capacities for the UK vs the EU.

And before you say 'look at the info-graphic', read it properly - this is capacity to produce the AstraZeneca vaccine - sure the UK's capacity for the AZ vaccine (100million) looks higher per head than the EU (400million). But the UK doesn't, as far as I'm aware, have any production facilities for the other approved vaccines, the Pfizer and Moderna - while the EU does (and indeed supplies the UK with these vaccines).

So you cannot conclude anything about overall vaccine production capacity from that article.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 28, 2021, 05:03:00 PM
Which tells us nothing about the capacity for manufacture of the vaccine. You might have said that all of the early vaccinations in the UK were sourced from the EU (as they were Pfizer ones) and therefore the UK must have lacked manufacturing capacity. That would be a non-sense statement, just as your comment is non-sense without evidence to back it up.

Where in the article does it give vaccine manufacturing capacities for the UK vs the EU.

And before you say 'look at the info-graphic', read it properly - this is capacity to produce the AstraZeneca vaccine - sure the UK's capacity for the AZ vaccine (100million) looks higher per head than the EU (400million). But the UK doesn't, as far as I'm aware, have any production facilities for the other approved vaccines, the Pfizer and Moderna - while the EU does (and indeed supplies the UK with these vaccines).

So you cannot conclude anything about overall vaccine production capacity from that article.
The early supply from Pfizer is a past situation so irrelevant to where we are now where the UK is working on its production of the AZ vaccine, and the EU being far behind in vaccination is unable to catch up on the capacity they have in any combination of AZ and Pfizer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on January 28, 2021, 05:20:00 PM
The early supply from Pfizer is a past situation so irrelevant to where we are now where the UK is working on its production of the AZ vaccine, and the EU being far behind in vaccination is unable to catch up on the capacity they have in any combination of AZ and Pfizer.
It isn't irrelevant - both the UK and the EU are vaccinating using both AZ and Pfizer vaccines - the EU has production facilities for both, the UK only for the AZ.

The question of production capacity is simple - when working at full capacity how many vaccines (AZ, Pfizer, Moderna) can be produced in production facilities in the EU compared to vaccines (AZ, Pfizer, Moderna) that can be produced at production facilities in the UK. Now in terms of capacity per head, you'll then need to divide by the relevant population. However I do not have those data and nor do you so your claim of greater capacity per head to produce vaccines in the UK than the EU isn't backed up by any evidence.

However the notion of production capacity in a particular country is actually only relevant if the way in which the vaccine is distributed is on the basis that people in country X only get a vaccine produced in country X. That isn't how it works - country X enters into a contract with company A to deliver Z-million vaccine doses over a period of time B. Where those vaccines are produced isn't part of the deal - or if it was Belgium and the Netherlands would be laughing as they are largely responsible for the non-american production of all Pfizer and Moderna vaccine (I think).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 28, 2021, 05:51:09 PM
It isn't irrelevant - both the UK and the EU are vaccinating using both AZ and Pfizer vaccines - the EU has production facilities for both, the UK only for the AZ.

The question of production capacity is simple - when working at full capacity how many vaccines (AZ, Pfizer, Moderna) can be produced in production facilities in the EU compared to vaccines (AZ, Pfizer, Moderna) that can be produced at production facilities in the UK. Now in terms of capacity per head, you'll then need to divide by the relevant population. However I do not have those data and nor do you so your claim of greater capacity per head to produce vaccines in the UK than the EU isn't backed up by any evidence.

However the notion of production capacity in a particular country is actually only relevant if the way in which the vaccine is distributed is on the basis that people in country X only get a vaccine produced in country X. That isn't how it works - country X enters into a contract with company A to deliver Z-million vaccine doses over a period of time B. Where those vaccines are produced isn't part of the deal - or if it was Belgium and the Netherlands would be laughing as they are largely responsible for the non-american production of all Pfizer and Moderna vaccine (I think).

Both the initial Phizer and AZ vaccine supplied in the UK were from Europe - Belgium and Netherlands respectively - the UK capacity (non-existent at the start of 2020 except for small amounts of flu vaccine) has only recently come on-line.

The EU is making the issue territorial - suggesting that UK production was explicitly included in their contract with AZ, and also that they might stop Phizer doses going to the UK.  No doubt lawyers could argue forever about what is covered by the contracts, but it is unlikely to help!

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on January 28, 2021, 06:08:55 PM
Both the initial Phizer and AZ vaccine supplied in the UK were from Europe - Belgium and Netherlands respectively - the UK capacity (non-existent at the start of 2020 except for small amounts of flu vaccine) has only recently come on-line.
True - and I gather also that the EU part-funded the programme to establish capacity to manufacture the AZ vaccine in the UK.

The EU is making the issue territorial - suggesting that UK production was explicitly included in their contract with AZ, and also that they might stop Phizer doses going to the UK.
You could, of course, argue it the other way around - in other words that the UK was happy to take Pfizer and AZ vaccines from the EU when the UK vaccine manufacturing capacity was unable to meet demand, however aren't willing to allow AZ vaccines produced in the UK to be shipped to the EU when they are struggling to meet current demand. Either way it is pretty unseemly and I doubt that contracts placed by either EU or UK for either vaccine had stipulations as to their origin of manufacture.

No doubt lawyers could argue forever about what is covered by the contracts, but it is unlikely to help!
Perhaps so.

However I think the key point here is that it would appear that AZ are unable currently to meet their contractual agreements for supply of their vaccine to both UK and EU. So what to do - I think in the short term the fairest option is to ensure that both the EU and the UK are impacted proportionally. But of course the only long term solution is to increase capacity to meet the contractual obligations with both the UK and EU.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SweetPea on January 28, 2021, 09:12:26 PM
The EU were slow on purpose. They didn’t want to approve the AZ vaccine, they were waiting for the French one which has now been abandoned. They stated publicly they would not look at the AZ vaccine until mid March despite falling behind with their vaccination program. Now Brussels eurocrats are running around like headless chickens trying to deflect the blame away from their own poor performance.

To think we could have joined their vaccination scheme.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on January 29, 2021, 10:40:35 AM
True - and I gather also that the EU part-funded the programme to establish capacity to manufacture the AZ vaccine in the UK.
You could, of course, argue it the other way around - in other words that the UK was happy to take Pfizer and AZ vaccines from the EU when the UK vaccine manufacturing capacity was unable to meet demand, however aren't willing to allow AZ vaccines produced in the UK to be shipped to the EU when they are struggling to meet current demand. Either way it is pretty unseemly and I doubt that contracts placed by either EU or UK for either vaccine had stipulations as to their origin of manufacture.
Perhaps so.

However I think the key point here is that it would appear that AZ are unable currently to meet their contractual agreements for supply of their vaccine to both UK and EU. So what to do - I think in the short term the fairest option is to ensure that both the EU and the UK are impacted proportionally. But of course the only long term solution is to increase capacity to meet the contractual obligations with both the UK and EU.

All of this is just hypothesis unless you have sight of the relevant contracts.

If the EU contract says "vaccine to be supplied from the plants in Belgium and the Netherlands" then the EU doesn't have a leg to stand on in this dispute. If, on the other hand, the British plant is included in the contract, then AstraZenica can't just say "sorry EU", they must make a commercial decision about how to resolve the issue.  It's likely that both their UK and EU contracts have penalty clauses which come into effect in the event of failure to commit to delivering contracted vaccines. So those will inform AstraZenica's decision.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55852698

The CEO of AstraZenica said that:

Quote from: BBC
the contract stipulated that the company would make its "best effort" to meet the EU demand and did not compel the company to stick to a specific timetable - an assertion disputed by the EU.

If he is right and if the British contract does stipulate a timetable, the UK must get priority.

It's a horrible mess because, in a ideal world, we would all be sat round a table discussing how to resolve the shortage in a way that is fair to everybody, but political squabbles are clearly getting in the way.

Note that, until today, the EU couldn't do anything with the AstraZenica vaccine because, only today will it be approved in the EU.



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 29, 2021, 10:44:11 AM
...
Note that, until today, the EU couldn't do anything with the AstraZenica vaccine because, only today will it be approved in the EU.
And won't be recommended for over 65s in Germany

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9197521/Germanys-vaccine-commission-says-AstraZeneca-jab-used-65s.html


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on January 29, 2021, 11:30:17 AM
All of this is just hypothesis unless you have sight of the relevant contracts.

If the EU contract says "vaccine to be supplied from the plants in Belgium and the Netherlands" then the EU doesn't have a leg to stand on in this dispute. If, on the other hand, the British plant is included in the contract, then AstraZenica can't just say "sorry EU", they must make a commercial decision about how to resolve the issue.  It's likely that both their UK and EU contracts have penalty clauses which come into effect in the event of failure to commit to delivering contracted vaccines. So those will inform AstraZenica's decision.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55852698

The CEO of AstraZenica said that:

If he is right and if the British contract does stipulate a timetable, the UK must get priority.

It's a horrible mess because, in a ideal world, we would all be sat round a table discussing how to resolve the shortage in a way that is fair to everybody, but political squabbles are clearly getting in the way.

Note that, until today, the EU couldn't do anything with the AstraZenica vaccine because, only today will it be approved in the EU.
I gather from comment on the news that the AZ contract with the EU mentions four production sites, two of which are in the UK.

I doubt that the AZ contract with the UK would be substantially different to that with the EU in terms of 'best efforts'.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on January 29, 2021, 11:57:11 AM
I gather from comment on the news that the AZ contract with the EU mentions four production sites, two of which are in the UK.

It's all just speculation unless these people have seen the contract and even if true, it doesn't necessarily mean they have to use the UK sites. The contract might say (as an example, obviously, I haven't seen it either) "the contract will be fulfilled from site e and u and AstraZenica may use sites g and b to make up any shortfall". In that case, AstraZenica are not obligated to fulfil EU orders from Great Britain. Change "may" to "must" and it's a different story.

Quote
I doubt that the AZ contract with the UK would be substantially different to that with the EU in terms of 'best efforts'.
That's just speculation too. There's only one group of people that have full knowledge of both contracts and they seem to be of the opinion that AstraZenica's best interests are served by throttling EU supplies but not UK supplies.

As an aside, the contracts manager of the first company I worked in said "never sign a contract that commits you to 'best efforts'". He would always insist on it being replaced with "reasonable efforts" because the former commits you to fixing everything even at the cost of bankrupting the company.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 29, 2021, 12:06:10 PM
APA - AstraZenaca:

Quote

...

5.4 Manufacturing sites AstraZenaca shall use its Best Reasonable Efforts to manufacture the Vaccine at manufacturing sites located within the EU (which for the purposes of this Section 5.4 only shall include the United Kingdom) and may manufacture the Vaccine in non-EU facilities, ...




 :)

Although they have published (redacted) the contract it can be argued for years with no useful result.

VDL's statements are escalating the situation rather than resolving the issue. If it keeps on along this path it is possible for all vaccine production in the UK and EU to grind to a halt.

Let's hope BJ can resist joining in and sticks to the relatively diplomatic language used so far.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on January 29, 2021, 12:19:16 PM
It's all just speculation unless these people have seen the contract and even if true, it doesn't necessarily mean they have to use the UK sites. The contract might say (as an example, obviously, I haven't seen it either) "the contract will be fulfilled from site e and u and AstraZenica may use sites g and b to make up any shortfall". In that case, AstraZenica are not obligated to fulfil EU orders from Great Britain. Change "may" to "must" and it's a different story.5.4 Manufacturing sites AstraZenaca shall use its Best Reasonable Efforts to manufacture the Vaccine at manufacturing sites located within the EU (which for the purposes of this Section 5.4 only shall include the United Kingdom) and may manufacture the Vaccine in non-EU facilities, ...
5.4 Manufacturing sites AstraZenaca shall use its Best Reasonable Efforts to manufacture the Vaccine at manufacturing sites located within the EU (which for the purposes of this Section 5.4 only shall include the United Kingdom) and may manufacture the Vaccine in non-EU facilities, ...

That seems pretty clear that the UK manufacturing sites are treated in exactly the same way as the EU sites in terms of their obligation to deliver the vaccines the EU ordered.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on January 29, 2021, 12:21:20 PM
As an aside, the contracts manager of the first company I worked in said "never sign a contract that commits you to 'best efforts'". He would always insist on it being replaced with "reasonable efforts" because the former commits you to fixing everything even at the cost of bankrupting the company.
It would appear the contract uses the term Best Reasonable Efforts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on January 29, 2021, 12:24:55 PM
Quote
That seems pretty clear that the UK manufacturing sites are treated in exactly the same way as the EU sites in terms of their obligation to deliver the vaccines the EU ordered.

It would be interesting to see what the UK contract specifies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on January 29, 2021, 12:30:29 PM
It would be interesting to see what the UK contract specifies.
It would indeed, but I doubt it will be markedly different in terms of wording and obligations to deliver.

What would be interesting is to know what would have happened if it had been the UK manufacturing facilities that had hit some issues rather than the EU ones. Would we simply see the same argument in reverse - in other words the UK demanding vaccines from the EU plants to make up for the shortfall in UK production.

Of course the solution here is to solve the production issues and production capacity to ensure that AZ can meet its obligations to both the UK and EU, and the UK and EU both get the vaccines they have ordered in the timeframe specified in their contracts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 29, 2021, 12:53:20 PM
It would indeed, but I doubt it will be markedly different in terms of wording and obligations to deliver.

The UK has already made clear it will not allow the contract to be published. And there have been remarks indicating that the considerable funding required to establish the plants was provided only on the condition that the UK demand would be met before non-UK.

Quote
What would be interesting is to know what would have happened if it had been the UK manufacturing facilities that had hit some issues rather than the EU ones. Would we simply see the same argument in reverse - in other words the UK demanding vaccines from the EU plants to make up for the shortfall in UK production.

Is anyone in a position to guarantee that the UK yield can remain at its current level? I doubt it. I'd speculate that with careful work and, possibly, further funding it is possible for the EU yields to be boosted, or at least further plants brought in to ensure better supply.

It could be noted that EU funding for development and production for covid vaccines has been far below that of the UK and USA.
 
Quote
Of course the solution here is to solve the production issues and production capacity to ensure that AZ can meet its obligations to both the UK and EU, and the UK and EU both get the vaccines they have ordered in the timeframe specified in their contracts.

Indeed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on January 29, 2021, 01:22:30 PM
The UK has already made clear it will not allow the contract to be published. And there have been remarks indicating that the considerable funding required to establish the plants was provided only on the condition that the UK demand would be met before non-UK.
Even if that is true, and you should note that the EU also put funding into the development of the manufacturing facilities in the UK, then a further question arises. Were the EU made aware of this contractual arrangement when they signed with AZ. If not then there are questions about the equivalence on the EU and UK production facilities mentioned in their contract. If the UK had to be serviced first then there cannot be an equivalence in terms of best reasonable efforts to supply from the various facilities.

It could be noted that EU funding for development and production for covid vaccines has been far below that of the UK and USA.
True - but then presumably the EU had put more funding into vaccine production facilities as they already had facilities in place, while the UK had little production facility at the outset.

But there is a further point - in a vaccine development which involves both private and public funding (as these do) there will be financial benefit coming back to both the private and public bodies. So presumably, for example, funding will flow back into Oxford University for every vaccine sold, and potentially directly back to funder organisations. So while the UK may be paying the same as the EU for an AZ vaccine, there may be differences in terms of returned financial compensation depending on the origin of the R&D from which the vaccine was derived.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 29, 2021, 04:45:23 PM
Marina Hyde on vaccine wars, and Desmond Swayne.


https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/29/nationalism-vaccine-mutation-uk-eu?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on January 29, 2021, 04:57:11 PM
Marina Hyde on vaccine wars, and Desmond Swayne.


https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/29/nationalism-vaccine-mutation-uk-eu?__twitter_impression=true
 

I rather liked her bit on Desmond Swayne.Hiw such a person becomes an MP I'll never know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 29, 2021, 05:00:58 PM
 

I rather liked her bit on Desmond Swayne.Hiw such a person becomes an MP I'll never know.
I believe he is SusanDoris's MP.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on January 29, 2021, 05:56:17 PM
I believe he is SusanDoris's MP.
I've read the Guardian link and that sort of damning article by a very anti-conservative is not for me.
I will reserve judgement until I see his blog for this week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 29, 2021, 06:39:06 PM
EU continue to flail about


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-55860540?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 29, 2021, 06:45:57 PM
I've read the Guardian link and that sort of damning article by a very anti-conservative is not for me.
I will reserve judgement until I see his blog for this week.
I don't think Michael Gove is very anti-conservative.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9194989/Tory-MP-Swayne-accused-spreading-dangerous-misinformation-Covid.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on January 29, 2021, 06:53:03 PM
EU continue to flail about


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-55860540?__twitter_impression=true
Bad news for the UK, but completely understandable. Frankly if the UK feels they should have first dibs on vaccines made in the UK, then it is hardly surprising (nor unreasonable) for the EU to feel they should have first dibs on vaccines made in the EU.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 29, 2021, 07:16:42 PM
Bad news for the UK, but completely understandable. Frankly if the UK feels they should have first dibs on vaccines made in the UK, then it is hardly surprising (nor unreasonable) for the EU to feel they should have first dibs on vaccines made in the EU.
And quite possibly creating a border in Ireland jeopardising the Good Friday agreement and handing a huge boost to Brexit and Johnson
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 29, 2021, 08:14:00 PM
Meanwhile the country that has vaccinated the largest percentage of its population in the last 3 days is Serbia. In the queue to join the EU but has bought the Chinese vaccine and is jagging everyone it can.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on January 29, 2021, 08:20:50 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/29/eu-moves-to-stop-northern-ireland-being-used-as-a-vaccine-backdoor-to-britain

More buggery bollocks from the EU.

This is outrageous. If they want us all to become Brexiteers they are doing a sterling job.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on January 29, 2021, 09:36:34 PM
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/it-s-hard-to-see-how-the-eu-can-win-a-case-against-astrazeneca

Interesting article about the legal side of the vaccine debacle.

The clause 6.2 would seem to be an important clause to me - but I'm not an expert on legal matters in any way whatsoever. Does anyone on here have more expertise?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 30, 2021, 12:16:37 AM
Phew.. Back from the brink at least, but damage to be assessed...


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 30, 2021, 09:46:32 AM
Phew.. Back from the brink at least, but damage to be assessed...




Quite a lot given the widespread condemnation

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55865539
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 30, 2021, 11:57:07 AM
Quite a lot given the widespread condemnation

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55865539

I'm finding it difficult to understand how they could bypass all their normal procedures and make such a "mistake", undermining confidence in everything agreed over the last four years. Who made or approved the decision? - I'd expect calls for von der Leyen to go.

The idea that the Commission is now "giving its member states the power - should they want to - to block exports of the coronavirus vaccine" (to non-EU countries) also seems dubious. Not sure why member states would need to be given the power to do this, rather than already be able to act independently?

Of-course, in general, vaccine export bans are bad anyway, - as per the WHO.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on January 30, 2021, 02:30:44 PM
Re Sir Desmond Swayne
NFW members have been sent quite a long letter. Latest blog not on line yet. There is one section which I willl quote when I have seen latest blog. He does not lie, and I have no reason to believe that he has done so in his letter even though I have read it only once so far.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on January 30, 2021, 03:10:29 PM
Re Sir Desmond Swayne
NFW members have been sent quite a long letter. Latest blog not on line yet. There is one section which I willl quote when I have seen latest blog. He does not lie, and I have no reason to believe that he has done so in his letter even though I have read it only once so far.

Yea - he sounds like a real sweetheart:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-52911053

I think bigoted, unthinking halfwit covers it.

Also he really takes Covid seriously doesn't he? 

Quote
The MP for New Forest West sat among the SNP benches in the House of Commons as he argued that Parliament's social-distancing procedures are "ridiculous".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on January 30, 2021, 03:17:52 PM
Also good value for his constituents sleeping on the job and all (2nd photo down):

https://www.aol.co.uk/tory-mp-desmond-swayne-benefits-174847716.html?

He's a keeper ain't he?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on January 30, 2021, 03:52:26 PM
Also good value for his constituents sleeping on the job and all (2nd photo down):

https://www.aol.co.uk/tory-mp-desmond-swayne-benefits-174847716.html?

He's a keeper ain't he?

I've come across this clown before: a pretentious and pompous prick if ever there was one but, presumably, the voters in his constituency either haven't noticed or, if they have, they don't care. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on January 30, 2021, 06:25:37 PM
Yea - he sounds like a real sweetheart:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-52911053

I think bigoted, unthinking halfwit covers it.

Also he really takes Covid seriously doesn't he?
I have to say I am somewhat concerned but will do some more reading tomorrow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on January 30, 2021, 07:08:42 PM
5.4 Manufacturing sites AstraZenaca shall use its Best Reasonable Efforts to manufacture the Vaccine at manufacturing sites located within the EU (which for the purposes of this Section 5.4 only shall include the United Kingdom) and may manufacture the Vaccine in non-EU facilities, ...

That seems pretty clear that the UK manufacturing sites are treated in exactly the same way as the EU sites in terms of their obligation to deliver the vaccines the EU ordered.
Except that that seems to be a clause to try to keep manufacturing within the EU. It's a clause that says "you can't use your plant in Africa (as a hypothetical) if you have capacity in the EU or the UK". It does not say "you must use capacity in the UK to make up for lack of capacity in the EU.

It's the wrong part of the contract to be looking at anyway. You need to see the bit which lays out the schedule to which AstraZeneca must deliver the vaccines. If they've not committed to hard numbers by a certain date but they have committed to hard numbers under the UK contract, then the UK gets precedence.

Having just skimmed through the contract, I can't find any commitment to deliver by a specific date in there. There's an estimated monthly schedule but the details are all redacted and it seems that the only sanction that the EU has for late delivery is to suspend payments. If the UK contract has penalties for late delivery, it wouldn't surprise me that AZ would give us preferential treatment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on January 30, 2021, 07:09:09 PM
It would appear the contract uses the term Best Reasonable Efforts.

And it also provides a definition of what that means.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 30, 2021, 07:11:47 PM
I was fairly used to wfh and Zoom anyway but it is very different when there is no office to go to.


https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/01/pandemic-shape-the-workplace-trends-2021?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social_scheduler&utm_term=COVID-19&utm_content=30/01/2021+18:45&fbclid=IwAR29m1I4vfSwt65ducBbd4FY9LYGmfxPfeM8VIEHISnJdZFMRZWnwN-Ae60
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on January 30, 2021, 07:24:34 PM
One more point about the EU - AstraZenica thing. The UK "only" ordered 100 million doses. The EU ordered 300 million with an option on a further 100 million. It's a lot easier to fulfil the UK order. I don't know what AZ's capacity is but it may be that, even with the UK capacity, they can't meet what the EU thinks of as their obligations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 31, 2021, 11:38:11 AM
Western Australia back in lockdown after 1 community case


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55877150
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 31, 2021, 05:52:05 PM
Captain Tom Moore in hospital with Covid


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-55881508
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 31, 2021, 07:17:42 PM
Covid cardboard shortage


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55878062
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on February 01, 2021, 06:52:40 AM
Captain Tom Moore in hospital with Covid


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-55881508
That is really very bad news indeed. It is very hard for the very old to fight off pneumonia anyway, but to have the added problem of that deadly virus .... well, that's just not fair on this particular gentleman.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Owlswing on February 01, 2021, 07:34:25 AM

That is really very bad news indeed. It is very hard for the very old to fight off pneumonia anyway, but to have the added problem of that deadly virus .... well, that's just not fair on this particular gentleman.


Agreed!

Prayers sent.

Owlswing

)O(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on February 01, 2021, 12:35:54 PM
Sir Desmond Swayne and his comments and scathing criticism thereof by Guardian article quoted in an NS post

This link is to the latest blog (https://www.desmondswaynemp.com/blogs/). As I mentioned earlier, he has sent out a letter to local Party members and I comment as follows:

He comments on the ‘uncomfortable media coverage’ and apologises for that, but goes on to say that he does not apologise for his opposition to lockdown as a management policy. He gives his reasons for this and says it is a legitimate point of view to be ‘held and debated. He denies the charge of ‘encouraging an anti-vaccine organisation’ and  points out he was speaking to ‘an anti-lockdown group’.
He quotes an exchange between himself and the PM:
Quote
site blogs, my speeches in Parliament and indeed, what I said to the PM last Wednesday:
 
Sir Desmond Swayne
To lift lockdown, will my right hon. Friend focus exclusively on the progress of vaccinations of those who are most likely to be hospitalised if infected? Is it not the case that mission creep beyond hospitalisations would inevitably lead to the diminution of our sense of urgency to lift the restrictions?
 
The Prime Minister
My right hon. Friend is completely right and he gets to the heart of the problem in the pretend policy that has been announced by the Opposition party. If we were to interfere with the JCVI 1 to 9 list, which is intended to target those most vulnerable and those most at risk of dying or of hospitalisation, we would, of course, interpolate it with other people appointed by politicians, taking vaccines away from the more vulnerable groups and, as he has rightly said, delay our ability to move forward out of lockdown. He is spot on.
Personally, I worry about the extent of the economic problems, not on my own behalf but for my granddaughters and their families as well as all other similar younger people.

Will I still vote for him? Yes- providing I’m alive of course!

And that’s quite enough political thinking for now!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 01, 2021, 01:01:19 PM
I did also point out that he was being criticised by Michael Gove

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/swayne-may-still-face-party-action-after-refusing-to-apologise-for-covid-remarks/31/01/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 01, 2021, 01:04:06 PM
More issues with tennis and Covid


https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/55875529
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on February 01, 2021, 02:08:22 PM
I did also point out that he was being criticised by Michael Gove

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/swayne-may-still-face-party-action-after-refusing-to-apologise-for-covid-remarks/31/01/
I'm afraid I don't take much notice of Michael Gove - not someone who appeals. Not too keen on Priti Patel either!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 01, 2021, 02:09:53 PM
I'm afraid I don't take much notice of Michael Gove - not someone who appeals. Not too keen on Priti Patel either!
It does make clear though that the concern is not just 'anti- Conservative'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on February 01, 2021, 02:30:53 PM
Stupidity

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-55886085

If you must break the law, don't take a picture of yourself doing it and definitely don't post the picture on social media.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 02, 2021, 11:49:36 AM
Stupidity

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-55886085

If you must break the law, don't take a picture of yourself doing it and definitely don't post the picture on social media.

That idiot certainly didn't have what passes for a brain in gear. ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 02, 2021, 02:36:28 PM

Pandemic? What pandemic? What's Covid?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/feb/02/teenager-emerges-after-10-month-coma-with-no-knowledge-of-pandemic?fbclid=IwAR1-CqlWsRy1LSzwMPHt-2cPpxDpb0cFzivPcOfMBk9YNL68lBkkR7NLVjk
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 02, 2021, 02:40:49 PM

Von Der Leyen keeps digging

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/02/ursula-von-der-leyen-accuses-uk-of-compromising-on-vaccine-safety?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR1hM0KEg_V0Z4GysXn1o4g3J5Rh04OjgZUCDgqFZ8U8CbCnqw1L8R46MOE
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on February 02, 2021, 04:26:34 PM
Pandemic? What pandemic? What's Covid?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/feb/02/teenager-emerges-after-10-month-coma-with-no-knowledge-of-pandemic?fbclid=IwAR1-CqlWsRy1LSzwMPHt-2cPpxDpb0cFzivPcOfMBk9YNL68lBkkR7NLVjk

I think, in such a case, I would bend the rules to allow members of his family to be with him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on February 02, 2021, 04:40:53 PM
Von Der Leyen keeps digging

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/02/ursula-von-der-leyen-accuses-uk-of-compromising-on-vaccine-safety?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR1hM0KEg_V0Z4GysXn1o4g3J5Rh04OjgZUCDgqFZ8U8CbCnqw1L8R46MOE

I got the impression from the BBC reporting, when the Pfizer vaccine was approved in Britain, that the reason we approved it earlier than the EU was effectively because our approval body was prepared to meet when the vaccine was ready to be approved rather than wait for the next normal monthly meeting.

The above is just an impression I got and I'm probably wrong, but what is real is that for every day's delay in the vaccine roll out hundreds of thousands more people get infected and thousands of them will eventually die. Yesterday in the UK, nearly 17,000 people tested positive. Several hundred of them will die from the virus and a month ago it was at least three times worse than that. It would have to be a pretty spectacularly unsafe vaccine to make it riskier than that.

She needs to get her own house in order.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 02, 2021, 05:36:53 PM
And the French only using the Astrazeneca vaccine on over 65s.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55901957
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 02, 2021, 08:39:53 PM
Stricter international quarantine to be introduced in Scotland. Not sure, why, if we can do this now, we couldn't earlier. Though it may be a wrinkle about introducing the mandatory quarantine as a principle.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55907162
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on February 02, 2021, 09:05:47 PM
You mean UNDER 65s.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 02, 2021, 09:06:55 PM
You mean UNDER 65s.
Yes, thanks
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 03, 2021, 11:09:58 AM
Really???

"None of us were able to predict" coronavirus would mutate or variants would emerge - Dido Harding, head of the National Institute for Health Protection
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 03, 2021, 11:14:50 AM
My husband is due to have his vaccination tomorrow, I haven't yet heard when I am to have mine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on February 03, 2021, 11:15:25 AM
Really???

"None of us were able to predict" coronavirus would mutate or variants would emerge - Dido Harding, head of the National Institute for Health Protection

One has to question who she means by "us".

It is pretty clear the virus is evolving, after all that is how it jumped to us from bats. The wider it spreads the faster its development. The whole point of test and trace is (or was) to stop that spread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 03, 2021, 11:18:31 AM
One has to question who she means by "us".

It is pretty clear the virus is evolving, after all that is how it jumped to us from bats. The wider it spreads the faster its development. The whole point of test and trace is (or was) to stop that spread.
Indeed! If she was someone randomly opining, the 'us' wouldn't be so scary. Given she's been in charge of a £20bn failure, her complete lack of knowledge is a bit more concerning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 03, 2021, 11:46:57 AM

Johnson visited lab knowing there was an outbreak of  Covid on his pointless trip to Scotland.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/local-news/prime-minster-boris-johnson-slammed-23433901
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 03, 2021, 12:21:17 PM
Matt Hancock watches the best films!


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55917374
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 03, 2021, 01:35:55 PM
Belgium advises not to use the Astrazeneca vaccine for over 55s


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/03/belgian-regulators-advise-against-giving-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-to-over-55s?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR2JplpSsHPJKRdh8nrLMvbQ11k2PMKRAeg2mBJOJvSGccLnRUrRRGPZu-4
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on February 03, 2021, 04:24:05 PM
Really???

"None of us were able to predict" coronavirus would mutate or variants would emerge - Dido Harding, head of the National Institute for Health Protection
I found it hard to believe she might have said that, but unfortunately, I have found a citation that confirms it.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/reactions-as-harding-claims-nobody-could-have-predicted-covid-virus-would-mutate/03/02

Her actual quote is

Quote
Between that business plan being published and us going into the lockdown that we are in now we have seen the virus mutate. We have seen the new variant emerge, which was something that none of us were able to predict

It's false because they did predict it. That's why there were efforts going on to sequence the genome of as many virus samples as possible, but I guess they didn't predict that exact variant at that exact time which is why we relaxed the lockdown at Christmas.

I'm actually a bit more unhappy about the terminology "business plan".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 03, 2021, 07:46:56 PM
Margaret Ferrier in court

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-55924053
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 03, 2021, 08:34:05 PM
Grant Shapps - UK can't close its borders because it's an island unlike Australia?!?!?@?@@#?

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/grant-shapps-uk-border-australia_uk_601a78c0c5b668b8db3d3a74/?ncid=other_twitter_cooo9wqtham&utm_campaign=share_twitter&__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on February 04, 2021, 06:37:06 AM
 Dido & Granteus - making the UK look more intelligent by the day.

But where, oh where are the mourning cupids.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on February 04, 2021, 07:55:50 AM
Dido & Granteus - making the UK look more intelligent by the day.

But where, oh where are the mourning cupids.
"Dido, Queen of Carnage", as Marina Hyde (I think) called her in the Grauniad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 04, 2021, 09:32:28 AM
Lovely snow but no people

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-55903349
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 04, 2021, 11:09:11 AM
I had a phonecall from our surgery earlier today to say a nurse will come over to vaccinate us both sometime this morning, WOW. I was supposed to take my husband over to a Rainbow Hospital in a town about 5 miles from here at lunchtime just have his, I was still awaiting a communication about when I was to have mine. I wasn't looking forward to driving over there due to the heaps of roadworks every mile or so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 04, 2021, 11:28:51 AM



Hotels not heard from govt about quarantine plans

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55932464
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 04, 2021, 12:06:27 PM
My husband and I had the Oxford Astra Zeneca jab, the nurse was here about 5 minutes. We get our next one on April 22nd.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 04, 2021, 01:23:37 PM
Switzerland withholds approval for Astrazeneca vaccine 


https://www.politico.eu/article/switzerland-wont-authorize-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-citing-lack-of-data/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 04, 2021, 01:33:26 PM
Thanks NS! ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 04, 2021, 01:51:24 PM
Meanwhile Piers Corbyn arrested over vaccine 'Auschwitz leaflet'


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55933373
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 04, 2021, 02:11:07 PM
Meanwhile Piers Corbyn arrested over vaccine 'Auschwitz leaflet'


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55933373

What a lovely man he is. >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 04, 2021, 07:20:44 PM
International travel 'biggest impact' on deaths - there's a shock!


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-55919040
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 04, 2021, 10:33:13 PM
Coming soon, Vaccine Passports?


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/04/travel/coronavirus-vaccine-passports.html?fbclid=IwAR1xbOuCD8EZl4bkB8L6hjr1fu76tpP-0uIPIE1ohg1TfS43R1yqLqY4SK8
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 05, 2021, 08:42:23 AM
English local elections to take place in May.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55938380
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 05, 2021, 11:16:19 AM
Coming soon, Vaccine Passports?


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/04/travel/coronavirus-vaccine-passports.html?fbclid=IwAR1xbOuCD8EZl4bkB8L6hjr1fu76tpP-0uIPIE1ohg1TfS43R1yqLqY4SK8

When we had our jab yesterday my husband and I were given vaccine record cards, stating the date we had it, the vaccine used, which arm it was put in, and the date the next one is due.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on February 05, 2021, 12:07:15 PM
When we had our jab yesterday my husband and I were given vaccine record cards, stating the date we had it, the vaccine used, which arm it was put in, and the date the next one is due.
And I hope that, when the vaccination programme is over, pubs and restaurants ask to see your card before you're admitted. I don't think that the selfish refusers should be allowed to endanger the rest of us, given that the vaccines are not 100% effective.
Headlines on some papers in the newsagents saying restrictions should be over, or almost over, by May.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 05, 2021, 12:14:05 PM
And I hope that, when the vaccination programme is over, pubs and restaurants ask to see your card before you're admitted. I don't think that the selfish refusers should be allowed to endanger the rest of us, given that the vaccines are not 100% effective.
Headlines on some papers in the newsagents saying restrictions should be over, or almost over, by May.

I agree you should have to present your vaccine card when visiting anywhere you will be in close contact with others, when lockdown ends. However, I suspect it could be another year or two before the pandemic is over, so new spikes are more than likely to occur if people don't behave sensibly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on February 05, 2021, 12:18:44 PM
I agree you should have to present your vaccine card when visiting anywhere you will be in close contact with others, when lockdown ends. However, I suspect it could be another year or two before the pandemic is over, so new spikes are more than likely to occur if people don't behave sensibly.

It may not be as bad as that depending on the vaccine take up and efficacy and it's ability to cope with variants.

Reasons to be cheerful:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55941234
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on February 05, 2021, 12:27:38 PM
I agree you should have to present your vaccine card when visiting anywhere you will be in close contact with others, when lockdown ends. However, I suspect it could be another year or two before the pandemic is over, so new spikes are more than likely to occur if people don't behave sensibly.
I don't know why you think that: with the vaccines being administered* world-wide, and a sane president now in charge in the USA, it should be all over, more or less, in a few months.
*Sorry, "rolled out": apparently, that's the official expression that we're all obliged to use.**
**Note for Owlswing: this is sarcasm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on February 05, 2021, 12:37:08 PM
Yep.

Rolled out.

Ramped up.

Following the science.

The right decisions at the right time.

Unprecedented.

etc.......

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 05, 2021, 01:39:15 PM
Is Rishi Sunak the most dangerous person in the UK govt?

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/05/rishi-sunak-government-pandemic-chancellor?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 05, 2021, 01:42:02 PM
I don't know why you think that: with the vaccines being administered* world-wide, and a sane president now in charge in the USA, it should be all over, more or less, in a few months.
*Sorry, "rolled out": apparently, that's the official expression that we're all obliged to use.**
**Note for Owlswing: this is sarcasm.

We shall see, but I can't say I am optimistic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on February 05, 2021, 01:43:26 PM
We shall see, but I can't say I am optimistic.
Why not?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 05, 2021, 01:48:06 PM
Why not?

Because many people don't act in a sensible way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 05, 2021, 04:17:20 PM
Because many people don't act in a sensible way.
Like this?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-55950930
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 05, 2021, 04:36:01 PM
Like this?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-55950930

Just like that. Hardly a day goes by with the police breaking up a large party or a rave. They must know they are likely to get caught and fined so why do it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on February 05, 2021, 04:43:50 PM
Just like that. Hardly a day goes by with the police breaking up a large party or a rave. They must know they are likely to get caught and fined so why do it?
There are probably a fair few that the police aren't aware of, so get away with it.

But actually I suspect that many of these huge gatherings get busted and there are probably not too many of them going on. What is probably much more common (and actually far more worrying because they are far less likely to be caught) are gatherings of 10 or so people in someone's house. I suspect these are happening all over the place every night.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 05, 2021, 04:57:40 PM
There are probably a fair few that the police aren't aware of, so get away with it.

But actually I suspect that many of these huge gatherings get busted and there are probably not too many of them going on. What is probably much more common (and actually far more worrying because they are far less likely to be caught) are gatherings of 10 or so people in someone's house. I suspect these are happening all over the place every night.

You are more than likely correct. Just because the vaccine rollout is going well I don't think anyone can afford to be complacent. It is possible there might be a Covid variant, which is resistant to the present vaccines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on February 05, 2021, 10:54:35 PM
You are more than likely correct. Just because the vaccine rollout is going well I don't think anyone can afford to be complacent. It is possible there might be a Covid variant, which is resistant to the present vaccines.
Thank you, Little Miss Sunshine.  https://youtu.be/SJUhlRoBL8M
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 06, 2021, 11:35:48 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55961387

The vaccination rollout seems to be on target at present. It is hoped all the over 50s will have received it by May.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 06, 2021, 06:28:19 PM
Powerful article


https://amp.theguardian.com/books/2021/feb/06/ive-been-called-satan-dr-rachel-clarke-on-facing-abuse-in-the-covid-crisis?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other&__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on February 06, 2021, 06:57:20 PM
Powerful article


https://amp.theguardian.com/books/2021/feb/06/ive-been-called-satan-dr-rachel-clarke-on-facing-abuse-in-the-covid-crisis?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other&__twitter_impression=true

She participated in an episode of Jeremy Paxman's post 'The Lock In' - well worth a listen.

https://play.acast.com/s/paxman/drrachelclarke
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 08, 2021, 07:31:14 AM

Worrying news about the Astrazeneca vaccine



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-55975052
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 08, 2021, 10:45:13 AM
Big impact on dental appts and treatments


https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/08/nhs-dental-patients-told-to-go-private-as-watchdog-warns-of-crisis-covid?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR2sQeCE_Sj_e44c1wfZGmV5CbjaLyIhOf2C0bdj_2nIYt70e_ZaN_Oozpg#Echobox=1612768185
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 08, 2021, 11:24:47 AM
Worrying news about the Astrazeneca vaccine



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-55975052

That is the vaccine we had last week. It is concerning, but as we are at home most of the time, apart from my early morning visit to the supermarket on a Monday when there are very few people there, hopefully we  are at less risk than others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 09, 2021, 08:55:29 PM
These are pretty harsh penalties for breaking quarantine, all feels a bit late though


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55995645
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 10, 2021, 11:22:24 AM
10 years in prison is a bit OTT, but on the other hand maybe it should be retrospective and apply to Cummings.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on February 10, 2021, 01:41:59 PM
I agree with LR. It is grossly over the top. Say, for arguments sake, it costs £50,000 a year to incarcerate a person. Is this offence really worth potentially costing the state half a million pounds?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 10, 2021, 01:49:32 PM
I agree with LR. It is grossly over the top. Say, for arguments sake, it costs £50,000 a year to incarcerate a person. Is this offence really worth potentially costing the state half a million pounds?
The intention though is surely more about deterrent rather than retribution in individual cases. The 10 years is s maximum.

Note none of the above is saying it's right. I feel that the penalties being possibly that high is influenced by a sense of guilt that the actual measure is a bit late, and in terms of only applying to certain countries a bit light
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 12, 2021, 09:40:56 AM
Australian Open crowds stopped

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-56035668
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 12, 2021, 10:28:26 AM
Australian Open crowds stopped

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-56035668

It is stupid to be playing any sport, which has crowds in the stadium at this time of crisis. >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on February 12, 2021, 10:31:28 AM
Got my letter today, inviting me to book an appointment for a jab, but when I tried to, I was told I wasn't eligible yet! I've sent them an online query. It doesn't matter much, because I have the option of ignoring the letter and waiting to be contacted by my GP surgery (The letter is if I want to be jabbed at one of the special centres), but it's annoying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on February 13, 2021, 08:58:37 AM
Received a phone call this morning inviting me and the partner for a vaccination next Saturday. Odd as I'm level 7 (he's 5) but not complaining. It suggests they are really getting through the numbers now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on February 13, 2021, 09:24:24 AM
Got a letter inviting me to book my jabs on line, which I've just done - 1st a week today, 2nd 8th May, both at the local hospital.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on February 13, 2021, 10:36:25 AM
We had ours midweek (the Pfizer jab) at the Louisa Jordan in Glasgow: have to say it was very well organised.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on February 15, 2021, 12:59:08 PM
The intention though is surely more about deterrent rather than retribution in individual cases. The 10 years is s maximum.

Note none of the above is saying it's right. I feel that the penalties being possibly that high is influenced by a sense of guilt that the actual measure is a bit late, and in terms of only applying to certain countries a bit light

I think it is more the case that some people will not get it into their thick skulls that the lockdown and the quarantine and everything are serious and not to be ignored. The British people have shown that collectively they cannot be trusted to behave responsibly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 15, 2021, 01:43:40 PM
Many Brits are behaving responsibly, but it is the idiots who don't that are endangering others. >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 18, 2021, 10:50:52 AM

Depressing

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/17/englands-poorest-areas-hit-by-covid-perfect-storm-leaked-report?fbclid=IwAR1KD4bpkJIvfrbsfKw3jLF1AIwWsgE3GB_w5XRXBMYRu7zOeokP28Cu90k
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on February 18, 2021, 01:13:52 PM
Depressing

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/17/englands-poorest-areas-hit-by-covid-perfect-storm-leaked-report?fbclid=IwAR1KD4bpkJIvfrbsfKw3jLF1AIwWsgE3GB_w5XRXBMYRu7zOeokP28Cu90k
mmmm, I don't think I'll go to that link. One thing that has surprised - me and caused a frown or two - is the news that a quite high percentage of those who have died with the Covid 19 not only have other health problems but  have some kkind of learning difficulties. I can't remember what the percentage was and that doesn't make the deaths more or less sad, but was the fact suppressed dliberately, or what? Anybody know?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 18, 2021, 01:18:48 PM
mmmm, I don't think I'll go to that link. One thing that has surprised - me and caused a frown or two - is the news that a quite high percentage of those who have died with the Covid 19 not only have other health problems but  have some kkind of learning difficulties. I can't remember what the percentage was and that doesn't make the deaths more or less sad, but was the fact suppressed dliberately, or what? Anybody know?
Twice as likely, see link below. I don't think it was suppressed in anyway just hasn't been much discussion of it. Ian Rankin, the author, was on Channel 4 News last night talking about it as he has a son in a care home with learning difficulties and he was arguing that people with learning difficulties should be higher priority than they are.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-learning-disability-deaths-vaccine-b1796604.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on February 18, 2021, 01:24:05 PM
I can't understand why a learning disability as such should put someone at greater risk. I know Down's syndrome people are high-risk, but they usually have physical problems as well, and tend not to live to a great age in any case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 18, 2021, 01:40:38 PM
The only physical problem our DS son has is G6PD deficiency, common among people like him of Greek Cypriot origin. Generally he is in very good health as long as he avoids broad beans and medications which can cause him problems. He had his first dose of the vaccine on Monday, which doesn't seem to have caused him any side effects.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on February 18, 2021, 02:47:34 PM
Twice as likely, see link below. I don't think it was suppressed in anyway just hasn't been much discussion of it. Ian Rankin, the author, was on Channel 4 News last night talking about it as he has a son in a care home with learning difficulties and he was arguing that people with learning difficulties should be higher priority than they are.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-learning-disability-deaths-vaccine-b1796604.html
Thank you - that puts things in perspective a bit more.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 19, 2021, 12:55:15 AM
Thank you - that puts things in perspective a bit more.
It would appear that the impacts can be considerably higher than that as well with figures of 1 in 3 in Scotland and 1 in 6 in England, higher in some age groups comparatively. The link below covers this as well as the MSPs trying to get the Scottish Govt to change the priorities.


https://healthandcare.scot/mobile_default.asp?page=story&story=2467&fbclid=IwAR0fDVyD1N2erMUbMlXciRW_PjkvnzF4ZYztazONzfyhlPzRGOcWA3uQxuU
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 19, 2021, 12:14:26 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-56111548

Here in Wales we are in lockdown for at least another three weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 19, 2021, 12:57:14 PM

No new dental students in Scotland this year.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56112743
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 19, 2021, 07:21:53 PM
As a decision saying the UK govt broke the law, this is very much meh!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56125462
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 20, 2021, 06:26:30 AM
A little song from a friend

https://www.youtube.com/watch?fbclid=IwAR2bfCHZgWs0IPitF3XOFXqmffAe1jdwOtG_HpiMNccx7ATvfvOeJ6adom8&v=67ePnaF9PAk&feature=youtu.be
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on February 20, 2021, 11:22:50 AM
Just had my first jab (Astra Zeneca). Take that, Covid-19!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 20, 2021, 11:23:10 AM
Just had my first jab (Astra Zeneca). Take that, Covid-19!
Hurrah
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on February 20, 2021, 11:24:25 AM
And huzzah!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on February 20, 2021, 12:18:11 PM
A little song from a friend

https://www.youtube.com/watch?fbclid=IwAR2bfCHZgWs0IPitF3XOFXqmffAe1jdwOtG_HpiMNccx7ATvfvOeJ6adom8&v=67ePnaF9PAk&feature=youtu.be

Absolutely brilliant!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on February 20, 2021, 01:24:31 PM
Also had my vaccination this morning. AZ.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 20, 2021, 01:33:59 PM
Also had my vaccination this morning. AZ.
hAZzah
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on February 20, 2021, 01:36:09 PM
Also had my vaccination this morning. AZ.
Jolly good show. Did you have to sit in an "observation room" for 10 mins or so afterwards, n case you had a funny turn? I did, but didn't. (Well I did feel ever so slightly woozy just after, but that only lasted 30 secs or so.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on February 20, 2021, 01:39:32 PM
hAZzah
;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on February 20, 2021, 04:43:35 PM
Jolly good show. Did you have to sit in an "observation room" for 10 mins or so afterwards, n case you had a funny turn? I did, but didn't. (Well I did feel ever so slightly woozy just after, but that only lasted 30 secs or so.)

No. They just said if you had driven you had to sit in the car for 15 minutes.I have had a bit of reaction. Bad headache, but small price to pay.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on February 21, 2021, 09:39:51 AM
I had my first jab (Oxford AZ) in January.
I had no reaction of any kind. I did not even feel the needle entering my arm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on February 21, 2021, 09:54:04 AM
I had my first jab (Oxford AZ) in January.
I had no reaction of any kind. I did not even feel the needle entering my arm.

I have had a fairly robust reaction  - headache, pain at the injection site, aches all over and a very shivery non-sleep night. However, feel better this morning after some paracetamol and breakfast.

Partner, nothing!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 21, 2021, 10:36:46 PM
It's ok to break the law, says Matt Hancock.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56145490
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on February 22, 2021, 01:44:49 PM
I had my first jab (Oxford AZ) in January.
I had no reaction of any kind. I did not even feel the needle entering my arm.
Are you sure they actually did it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 22, 2021, 01:48:57 PM
I had my first jab (Oxford AZ) in January.
I had no reaction of any kind. I did not even feel the needle entering my arm.

I know of a number of people who haven't had any problems after having the vaccine. Needles don't hurt like they used to in days of yore. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 22, 2021, 04:24:03 PM
For someone talking about data not dates, there seem to be.a number of dates. In general though this is at least a plan but thd all school pupils going back on the same day seems a bit big bang given previous concerns. Note, of course, this is England and in Scotland we have had a partial return today.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56158405
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 22, 2021, 04:29:15 PM
For someone talking about data not dates, there seem to be.a number of dates. In general though this is at least a plan but  all school pupils going back on the same day seems a bit big bang given previous concerns. Note, of course, this is England and in Scotland we have had a partial return today.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56158405

So did Wales.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 22, 2021, 07:41:06 PM
Looks like the EU don't really want the AZ vaccine after all.

https://www.cityam.com/why-have-almost-half-eu-countries-restricted-use-of-the-astrazeneca-vaccine/?fbclid=IwAR1FFKGDCmHwrHNE9kxHUNz-c2-Y1clwjaVrzofPjL4d84ILm0tZDVF1hho
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 22, 2021, 08:20:32 PM
It would appear that the impacts can be considerably higher than that as well with figures of 1 in 3 in Scotland and 1 in 6 in England, higher in some age groups comparatively. The link below covers this as well as the MSPs trying to get the Scottish Govt to change the priorities.


https://healthandcare.scot/mobile_default.asp?page=story&story=2467&fbclid=IwAR0fDVyD1N2erMUbMlXciRW_PjkvnzF4ZYztazONzfyhlPzRGOcWA3uQxuU
And some action from the Scottish Govt

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56147685
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on February 23, 2021, 09:32:06 AM
all school pupils going back on the same day seems a bit big bang given previous concerns.

Having taken a walk around the Floating Harbour yesterday evening when it was sunny and relatively warm, I say vaccinate the teachers and send the children back to school now. The quayside round the harbour was rammed with groups of teenagers. They're not social distancing at all.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on February 23, 2021, 10:34:18 AM
More detail on Salmond's submission





https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/alex-salmond-claims-malicious-concerted-23546891.amp?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar&__twitter_impression=true
I think you've put this in the wrong thread!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 23, 2021, 10:42:21 AM
I think you've put this in the wrong thread!
I had indeed. Thank you
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 24, 2021, 12:00:11 PM
Do you think workers should not be permitted to refuse to have the vaccine?  I am of the opinion that jobs, which include a lot of personal contact with people, like the NHS, surgeries, care homes, dentists and opticians should be vaccinated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 25, 2021, 02:29:37 PM
Oh dear.


https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinburgh-news/covid-scotland-entire-class-forced-19913298.amp?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar&__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on February 25, 2021, 03:34:51 PM
Oh dear.


https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinburgh-news/covid-scotland-entire-class-forced-19913298.amp?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar&__twitter_impression=true

Expect a few of those. People are desperate to get their children back in school, at least they are if the colleague of mine with a child aged five is anything to go by.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on February 26, 2021, 11:06:46 AM
Pubs and restaurants are to close for at least three weeks here in Finland as of 8th of March. Can't really understand this decision. Only a small percentage of infections have been traced to them. Oh well, I'll definitely spend next weekend down the pub before they close. After that it only be "kalsarikännit", as we say in Finnish.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 27, 2021, 08:59:45 AM

Teachers 'should be prepared to sacrifice their lives'

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/covid-schools-reopening-ofsted-teachers-b1807935.html?utm_content=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1614339489
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on February 27, 2021, 09:46:34 AM
Teachers 'should be prepared to sacrifice their lives'

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/covid-schools-reopening-ofsted-teachers-b1807935.html?utm_content=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1614339489
I have been to the link and read the first part. I have not gone on to 'read more'. The inference could be made that he meant the statement to include actual 'ssacrifice of life' by a teacher, but unless he actually said those words, then the writer of the article cannot be sure that he did correctly infer that. Care should be taken by journalists to make sure they are not implying something that wasn't consciously or deliberately implied, in my opinion.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 27, 2021, 03:10:11 PM

'Every single prosecution under government’s Coronavirus Act has been overturned' apparently

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/amphtml/every-single-coronavirus-prosecution-overturned-174116157.html?soc_src=community&soc_trk=tw&__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 27, 2021, 04:55:27 PM
Anti lockdown protest in Dublin

https://amp.rte.ie/amp/1199742/?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 28, 2021, 08:23:44 AM
Peter Hitchens bays at the moon


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9307363/PETER-HITCHENS-Ive-Covid-jab-cost-freedom.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on February 28, 2021, 08:39:45 AM
Peter Hitchens bays at the moon


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9307363/PETER-HITCHENS-Ive-Covid-jab-cost-freedom.html
Fucking irresponsible, stupid, pompous twat. God I hate him! Even more than his equally pompous, thankfully dead, brother!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 28, 2021, 10:16:51 AM
I don't read that awful tabloid so had never heard of the guy, but he sounds a very unpleasant piece of work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on February 28, 2021, 11:24:27 AM
Fucking irresponsible, stupid, pompous twat. God I hate him! Even more than his equally pompous, thankfully dead, brother!

I think it is quite refreshing to read other viewpoints, you may disagree with some or all of it, but I don't think you need to get into quite such an indignant rage about it. They are/were both writers and polemicists, you wouldn't really expect a bland agreement with the perceived orthodoxy would you?

As to your last sentence it doesn't bear being dignified with any kind of response.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on February 28, 2021, 05:29:16 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56233038

Another variant of the virus has been detected here in the UK, originally found in Brazil. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SweetPea on February 28, 2021, 10:08:53 PM
I don't read that awful tabloid so had never heard of the guy, but he sounds a very unpleasant piece of work.

Do you mean you've never heard of Peter Hitchens, Littleroses? He is the brother of the now deceased, atheist Christopher Hitchens. Peter was originally an atheist until he found Christ.

He does come over as pompous but re the Covid-19 circumstances he, in a sense, addresses the balance of people losing their jobs, businesses, even their homes and some taking their own lives due to their unbearable situation.

It's a very difficult state of affairs for any government to deal with and I certainly would not like to be in their position. Interesting thought: would they have been so pleased to be in power Dec. '19 if they had known what was ahead of them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Owlswing on February 28, 2021, 10:39:43 PM

It's a very difficult state of affairs for any government to deal with and I certainly would not like to be in their position. Interesting thought: would they have been so pleased to be in power Dec. '19 if they had known what was ahead of them.


They may well be the politicians of a party with which you do not agree, but I will bet that there are Labour politicians who are feeling "Thanks to Christ we lost the election as we do not have to make the nasty decisions on how to cope with the pandemic."

It is nice to be on the Opposition benches and yell that the Govt has done it wrong while not have to worry about it as it is hoped that it will be over before they have a chance to be in the position of having to make those hard decisions and being slagged off in the press for having balls them up!

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 01, 2021, 09:40:43 AM
Peter Hitchens bays at the moon


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9307363/PETER-HITCHENS-Ive-Covid-jab-cost-freedom.html

The brains were definitely distributed unequally in that family.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 01, 2021, 09:56:10 AM

It's a very difficult state of affairs for any government to deal with and I certainly would not like to be in their position. Interesting thought: would they have been so pleased to be in power Dec. '19 if they had known what was ahead of them.

I'm sure they think they dodged a bullet. You may argue that they couldn't be worse than the current shower (I wouldn't: I'm sure Jeremy Corbyn could trawl previously unheard of depths of incompetence, if he put his mind to it), but we wouldn't have the current shower to compare to, if Labour had won.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 01, 2021, 04:01:03 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-56239268

These idiots, not only were in breach of lockdown rules, they must have been off their heads to camp so close to the edge of this cliff especially as they had a child with them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 03, 2021, 08:46:38 AM
Dolly being Dolly


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56261397
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 03, 2021, 06:04:36 PM

Mad RC Bishops


https://religionnews.com/2021/03/02/bishops-discourage-catholics-from-using-johnson-johnson-vaccine-if-given-a-choice/?fbclid=IwAR1nCRM_7rrt_OcvLh65n1W-kDZgncZyNKztjK2-J0XZMpDj2wG6gcowsVU
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 03, 2021, 06:18:20 PM
Mad RC Bishops


https://religionnews.com/2021/03/02/bishops-discourage-catholics-from-using-johnson-johnson-vaccine-if-given-a-choice/?fbclid=IwAR1nCRM_7rrt_OcvLh65n1W-kDZgncZyNKztjK2-J0XZMpDj2wG6gcowsVU

Totally bonkers! ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 03, 2021, 10:46:42 PM
I don't think there's a moral problem, but the Catholic statement is mild and reasonable, unlike Roses' typically childish response.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 04, 2021, 10:40:40 AM
I don't think there's a moral problem, but the Catholic statement is mild and reasonable, unlike Roses' typically childish response.

At least I admit to being in my second childhood, I see you have joined me. :P ;D

Getting back to the subject of the virus, I see Biden is not impressed with Texas who have decided to discard the wearing of masks!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56275103
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 04, 2021, 11:07:52 AM
At least I admit to being in my second childhood, I see you have joined me. :P ;D

Getting back to the subject of the virus, I see Biden is not impressed with Texas who have decided to discard the wearing of masks!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56275103

I foresee another wave of deaths in the US. Lots of them are relaxing at exactly the same time as the UK variant is beginning to take hold.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 04, 2021, 11:24:29 AM
I think it is likely to be a good while before we can let our guard down where the virus is concerned, as new spikes are going to occur if we do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 04, 2021, 08:14:10 PM
Italy blocking AZ vaccine going to Australia


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56279202
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 05, 2021, 08:31:16 AM
Good news about increased willingness to have the jab. It really ought to be a no-brainer, but apparently there is a proportion of the populace with no brains, including some crooner or other. (https://www.theguardian.com/music/2021/mar/04/ian-brown-pulls-out-of-music-festival-over-covid-vaccination-row?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR22wInGRjcfrhOPGWB6apJJeWU7ERSYohB6E5RNV6R5lY3V9geEVVjBY7w#Echobox=1614931378)

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/mar/05/fear-of-missing-out-boosting-global-acceptance-of-covid-jab

A poll I came across online showed a large majority of respondents in favour of vaccine passports, including, with some minor caveats, me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 05, 2021, 05:11:14 PM
Johnson lying to parliament


https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/court-order-shows-boris-johnson-misled-parliament-over-coronavirus-contracts-3156459
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 05, 2021, 05:15:47 PM
Johnson lying to parliament


https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/court-order-shows-boris-johnson-misled-parliament-over-coronavirus-contracts-3156459

Perhaps Douglas Ross will ask Johnson to resign for lying. That is what he expects of other leaders.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 09, 2021, 02:16:25 PM
Randy Rainbow again. Another vaccine song:

https://youtu.be/XQTuFudB028
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 09, 2021, 03:22:06 PM
Some light easing in Scotland



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56337475
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 10, 2021, 09:49:50 AM
Track and Trace  'no clear impact' despite £37bn budget

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56340831
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on March 10, 2021, 09:52:44 AM
Track and Trace  'no clear impact' despite £37bn budget

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56340831
Surely there was a positive impact......on the bank balance of Tory cronies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 10, 2021, 10:16:05 AM
Surely there was a positive impact......on the bank balance of Tory cronies.
You don't half post some gonads! How, exactly, is the money wasted going to enrich tory cronies?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 10, 2021, 11:19:37 AM
Seen in The Guardian:

Vallance & Whitty - the two gentleman of corona.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 10, 2021, 11:21:44 AM
Seen in The Guardian:

Vallance & Whitty - the two gentleman of corona.
Also in the Grauniad: Dido Harding - Dido Queen of Carnage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 10, 2021, 12:05:21 PM


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/10/deadly-pig-disease-could-have-led-to-covid-spillover-to-humans-analysis-suggests

Guardian report on a study suggesting: "An outbreak of a deadly pig disease may have set the stage for Covid-19 to take hold in humans, a new analysis has suggested. African swine fever (ASF), which first swept through China in 2018, disrupted pork supplies increasing the potential for human-virus contact as people sought out alternative meats. "

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 10, 2021, 03:18:26 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55676034

I think this article about how hypodermic syringes were invented is interesting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 12, 2021, 09:13:32 AM
Struggling to understand the reactions by certain govts


https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-europe-56357760?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 12, 2021, 09:16:32 AM
Struggling to understand the reactions by certain govts


https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-europe-56357760?__twitter_impression=true

Europe's ongoing antipathy towards AZ.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 12, 2021, 11:38:09 AM
My husband and I had the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, so the reports of blood clots are a bit concerning. However, we seem to be ok, and will have our second dose in mid April.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 12, 2021, 10:56:00 PM
Friend stuck in hospital with Covid,  no underlying conditions
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 15, 2021, 12:42:46 PM
Starting to piss me off this whole thing. You got most people who try to follow the rules and then some who couldn't give a shit and are prolonging the whole thing. People breaking quarantine and going abroad on holiday. They should be met at the airport with a good fucking kicking. Starting to affect my mum as well. Hasn't done anything for a year now. Selfish selfish people!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on March 16, 2021, 08:16:45 AM
My husband and I had the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, so the reports of blood clots are a bit concerning. However, we seem to be ok, and will have our second dose in mid April.

Try thinking instead of just reacting.

Apparently there have been 37 reported cases of blood clots in people who have recently received the Oxford Astra-Zeneca vaccine in the EU countries concerned. The total number of vaccines administered is over 17,000,000. Translated into something a little more understandable than a number followed by lots of noughts this suggests that there is one case of blood clotting in the total population - men, women and children - in a city the size of Bristol.

There is no reasonable way, given these statistics, in which the blood clotting incidences can be attributed to the vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 16, 2021, 10:03:33 AM
Apparently there have been 37 reported cases of blood clots in people who have recently received the Oxford Astra-Zeneca vaccine in the EU countries concerned. The total number of vaccines administered is over 17,000,000. Translated into something a little more understandable than a number followed by lots of noughts this suggests that there is one case of blood clotting in the total population - men, women and children - in a city the size of Bristol.

There is no reasonable way, given these statistics, in which the blood clotting incidences can be attributed to the vaccine.
And even if they could, having the jab remains much safer than not having it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 16, 2021, 11:15:51 AM
Try thinking instead of just reacting.

Apparently there have been 37 reported cases of blood clots in people who have recently received the Oxford Astra-Zeneca vaccine in the EU countries concerned. The total number of vaccines administered is over 17,000,000. Translated into something a little more understandable than a number followed by lots of noughts this suggests that there is one case of blood clotting in the total population - men, women and children - in a city the size of Bristol.

There is no reasonable way, given these statistics, in which the blood clotting incidences can be attributed to the vaccine.

The suspensions are not really to do with science or statistics but optics. It could help maintain confidence in the various national institutions and governments to pause the roll out and, after investigating each case, go back and say they all had other causes, and resume vaccinating.

The vaccines may be perfect but at the current time the main defence against the virus is to keep spread as low as possible through social distancing. The same will remain true for some time. even in the UK, with over 20m vaccinated.

The power of fake news, or analysis, on social media is enough to drown out anything else.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 16, 2021, 05:21:18 PM
We are quite happy to have our second Astra Zeneca jab next month as we believe it is safe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 17, 2021, 05:42:48 PM
Very worrying in Brazil

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/brazil-e2-80-99s-rolling-coronavirus-disaster-is-a-threat-to-the-world/ar-BB1eFhPN
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 18, 2021, 10:34:21 AM
Some details of the blood clotting cases being investigated.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/03/it-s-very-special-picture-why-vaccine-safety-experts-put-brakes-astrazeneca-s-covid-19
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 18, 2021, 04:29:09 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56440139

The European Medicines Agency has stated that the Astra Zeneca vaccine is safe and effective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on March 20, 2021, 04:32:42 AM


Is the gap between two Astrazeneca doses 12 weeks in the UK?  Here, in India, it is 4 weeks which I think lowers the efficacy to 60% from 90%.

Also, people who have had covid can stop with one jab, I think. The immunity in such cases is said to be 500 times that for people who have not had covid.

Any views?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 20, 2021, 07:43:22 AM

Is the gap between two Astrazeneca doses 12 weeks in the UK?  Here, in India, it is 4 weeks which I think lowers the efficacy to 60% from 90%.

Also, people who have had covid can stop with one jab, I think. The immunity in such cases is said to be 500 times that for people who have not had covid.

Any views?
On a pedantic point, "views", like "opinions", are irrelevant when we're talking about verifiable, objective facts. "Everyone is entitled to their own pinion, but not to their own facts" - DP Moynihan.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on March 20, 2021, 09:50:07 AM

Is the gap between two Astrazeneca doses 12 weeks in the UK?  Here, in India, it is 4 weeks which I think lowers the efficacy to 60% from 90%.

Also, people who have had covid can stop with one jab, I think. The immunity in such cases is said to be 500 times that for people who have not had covid.

Any views?

You may like to have a look at this, Sriram. It has been posted by the British Medical Journal and so can be regarded as reliable.
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n326



This note also looks at another consequence of the extended interval: assuming that vaccine delivery resources are limited, then a very much greater number of people can receive the benefits of a first dose in a relatively short time than if the resources were also used to deliver a second dose  within the same period. This exemplified by the situation in the UK where more than a third of the total population has already received the first dose.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 20, 2021, 11:38:24 AM
Our next dose of the Oxford vaccine is next month, 12 weeks after the last one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on March 20, 2021, 12:46:34 PM
Our next dose of the Oxford vaccine is next month, 12 weeks after the last one.


Yeah...that's what I wanted to check. Thanks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on March 20, 2021, 12:50:57 PM
You may like to have a look at this, Sriram. It has been posted by the British Medical Journal and so can be regarded as reliable.
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n326



This note also looks at another consequence of the extended interval: assuming that vaccine delivery resources are limited, then a very much greater number of people can receive the benefits of a first dose in a relatively short time than if the resources were also used to deliver a second dose  within the same period. This exemplified by the situation in the UK where more than a third of the total population has already received the first dose.


Saving vaccines is just one issue. I think Astrazeneca have clearly stated that a gap of 12 weeks increases the efficacy to 90%. 4 Weeks reduces the efficacy to 60%.

Secondly France have issued guidelines that people who have recovered from covid need only one dose.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Stranger on March 20, 2021, 01:08:01 PM
Saving vaccines is just one issue. I think Astrazeneca have clearly stated that a gap of 12 weeks increases the efficacy to 90%. 4 Weeks reduces the efficacy to 60%.

This is the most recent statement on the subject from AstraZeneca themselves that I've been able to find:-

"Results demonstrated vaccine efficacy of 76% (CI: 59% to 86%) after a first dose, with protection maintained to the second dose. With an inter-dose interval of 12 weeks or more, vaccine efficacy increased to 82% (CI: 63%, 92%)." (source (https://www.astrazeneca.com/content/astraz/media-centre/press-releases/2021/covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-confirms-protection-against-severe-disease-hospitalisation-and-death-in-the-primary-analysis-of-phase-iii-trials.html))
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on March 20, 2021, 03:45:58 PM
This is the most recent statement on the subject from AstraZeneca themselves that I've been able to find:-

"Results demonstrated vaccine efficacy of 76% (CI: 59% to 86%) after a first dose, with protection maintained to the second dose. With an inter-dose interval of 12 weeks or more, vaccine efficacy increased to 82% (CI: 63%, 92%)." (source (https://www.astrazeneca.com/content/astraz/media-centre/press-releases/2021/covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-confirms-protection-against-severe-disease-hospitalisation-and-death-in-the-primary-analysis-of-phase-iii-trials.html))



Thanks Stranger!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 21, 2021, 06:21:50 PM
Incredibly good news though I am about the last of my cohort that I know with no date as yet.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56477291
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 23, 2021, 11:36:14 AM
Incredibly good news though I am about the last of my cohort that I know with no date as yet.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56477291


Which I now have - 30th March
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 23, 2021, 11:40:39 AM
Which I now have - 30th March

Hurrah!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 23, 2021, 11:46:33 AM
'As UK marks one year since going into lockdown, govt says planning the commemoration was pretty straightforward as most countries had stuff left over from their anniversaries two weeks ago.'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on March 24, 2021, 08:24:00 AM
\Phone call from NHS yesterday afternoon re my 9th April appointment for Covid 19 second vaccination. Could they bring it forward to the 1st April at 2:46 p.m.? Yes, please!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 24, 2021, 01:18:09 PM
Privileging religious beliefs

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56511585
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on March 24, 2021, 01:39:56 PM
Privileging religious beliefs

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56511585

   


First;
When we open on Sunday, we will adhere strictly to government guidelines.

The ruling, though, was predictable, as bits of the law hark back to measures enacted by 'the Tables' in 1638, after Charles I stuck his nose into the Scottish Kirk.
I'm not saying I agree with the ruling - it is what it is and the law needs to be changed.
We get fed up with glimflam and flummery left over from the pre-union English Parliament of 1707, so we may as well get fed up with the Scots parliament of 1638.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 24, 2021, 01:40:38 PM
Privileging religious beliefs

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56511585

Considering that Christians have a "personal relationship with God", it's surprising how essential it is for them all to gather in special buildings.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on March 24, 2021, 01:43:44 PM
Considering that Christians have a "personal relationship with God", it's surprising how essential it is for them all to gather in special buildings.
   


It's a command.
The buildings don't have to be special - thet don't even have to be there at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 24, 2021, 03:14:26 PM
   


It's a command.
The buildings don't have to be special - thet don't even have to be there at all.

A command from whom?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on March 24, 2021, 03:58:34 PM
A command from whom?
   



From the vows of membership of the Church of Scotland....


"....I promise, depending on God's grace bring weith me, to attend worship with my fellow Christians on the Lord's day...."
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 24, 2021, 04:02:41 PM
A double mutant!


https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-india-56507988?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 24, 2021, 04:04:53 PM
   



From the vows of membership of the Church of Scotland....


"....I promise, depending on God's grace bring weith me, to attend worship with my fellow Christians on the Lord's day...."

Hmmmmmmmmm! ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 24, 2021, 04:06:37 PM
A double mutant!


https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-india-56507988?__twitter_impression=true

Concerning but not surprising. :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 24, 2021, 05:59:31 PM

German chaos

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56513366
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 24, 2021, 06:17:04 PM
Merkel must be emulating Boris! ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 24, 2021, 10:44:31 PM
Concerning but not surprising. :o
Mutants aren't necessarily bad news - it might mutate into a much less severe form, which is never fatal (except perhaps in people already at death's door), and just makes you feel under the weather for a few days. That would actually be in the virus's interest; it wants to reproduce itself as widely as possible, and it can't do that very effectively if it kills off its hosts in short order.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 25, 2021, 08:59:50 AM
Mutants aren't necessarily bad news - it might mutate into a much less severe form, which is never fatal (except perhaps in people already at death's door), and just makes you feel under the weather for a few days. That would actually be in the virus's interest; it wants to reproduce itself as widely as possible, and it can't do that very effectively if it kills off its hosts in short order.
The virus isn't close to being deadly enough to kill off its hosts. However the mutation that drives infection is transmissibility - a more transmissible virus will rapid dominate, as we've seen. The fatality is secondary as far as virus survival is concerned.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on March 25, 2021, 10:04:15 AM
Hmmmmmmmmm! ::)
 



I take my promises seriously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 25, 2021, 11:33:16 AM
 



I take my promises seriously.

I never said you didn't, even if you don't have evidence to support your religious beliefs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 25, 2021, 05:20:49 PM
MPs have voted to extend emergency coronavirus laws for another six months.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 26, 2021, 09:55:53 AM
Charles Walker MP goes full Partridge


https://youtu.be/9eBMR9um3rc
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on March 26, 2021, 10:25:01 AM
Charles Walker MP goes full Partridge


https://youtu.be/9eBMR9um3rc

John Crace's take on this bizarre ramble (even for a Tory).

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/25/tory-milkman-delivers-speech-surreal-even-by-commons-standards
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on March 26, 2021, 10:41:47 AM
Charles Walker MP goes full Partridge


https://youtu.be/9eBMR9um3rc
Sounds reasonable to me. He looks disconcertingly like Richard Dawkins.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 26, 2021, 12:19:51 PM
'People may quit if forced to work from home, Rishi Sunak warns'

Though some people may well quit if they are forced to return to the office. As most of what I did when I was in an office was be on Zoom calls it's not something I particularly want


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56535575
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 26, 2021, 01:38:05 PM
I know a number of people who people who prefer to work from home, like my son-in-law. It doesn't impinge on his ability to do his job well even though he is in a senior position in his company.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 26, 2021, 04:27:06 PM
'People may quit if forced to work from home, Rishi Sunak warns'

Though some people may well quit if they are forced to return to the office. As most of what I did when I was in an office was be on Zoom calls it's not something I particularly want


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56535575

Who wouldn't want to work from home? I'd love to, but forklift trucks don't drive themselves.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on March 26, 2021, 04:49:55 PM
Who wouldn't want to work from home? I'd love to, but forklift trucks don't drive themselves.

But in the future maybe it would be possible to control them from your home by some sort of technology. What we can do now would have been thought impossible not so long ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on March 26, 2021, 05:15:26 PM
But in the future maybe it would be possible to control them from your home by some sort of technology. What we can do now would have been thought impossible not so long ago.

True. Looking forward to that day. Could drive and eat my bacon and eggs at the same time. LOL!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 26, 2021, 05:17:58 PM
True. Looking forward to that day. Could drive and eat my bacon and eggs at the same time. LOL!
More likely to be robotic and put you out of a job, I'm afraid
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 30, 2021, 10:00:28 AM
Jagged
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on March 30, 2021, 10:28:38 AM
Jagged




Ma airm didny gaup whan I had ma jag fower weeks syne.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 31, 2021, 10:53:25 AM
Now who would have thought outdoor attractions would have done better than indoor ones in the pandemic


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/entertainment-arts-56565168?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on April 01, 2021, 09:47:07 AM
Got my appointment for my first jab. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 01, 2021, 09:49:16 AM
Got my appointment for my first jab. :)
Great
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 01, 2021, 11:56:41 AM
Interesting article about how some businesses have responded to the pandemic:

 https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/business-economics/the-firms-that-got-it-right-and-badly-wrong-during-the-pandemic-262280/

Be a Timsons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 01, 2021, 01:47:27 PM
Starmer comes out against  pub vaccination passport - good. Because it's not British - idiotic.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56598413
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on April 01, 2021, 07:02:48 PM
Second vaccine jab done this afternoon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 01, 2021, 10:22:44 PM
Starmer comes out against  pub vaccination passport - good. Because it's not British - idiotic.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56598413
Bad - I'm for it, British or not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 01, 2021, 10:48:27 PM
Bad - I'm for it, British or not.
why?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 01, 2021, 10:58:04 PM
why?
Because it'll piss off anti-vaccinators, and because they shouldn't be allowed to endanger others with their irresponsible attitude.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 01, 2021, 11:51:56 PM
Because it'll piss off anti-vaccinators, and because they shouldn't be allowed to endanger others with their irresponsible attitude.
So you want to end up with less obeyance to just annoy people. Try and think that out again?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on April 02, 2021, 07:06:20 AM
Because it'll piss off anti-vaccinators, and because they shouldn't be allowed to endanger others with their irresponsible attitude.

Surely there is also danger here in presuming that vaccine passports imply 'safety'.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 02, 2021, 08:14:59 AM
Surely there is also danger here in presuming that vaccine passports imply 'safety'.

This is the major problem with a so-called passport. There was a virologist chappie on TV this morning explaining that it may well give a false sense of security, and that with currently only 51% having some kind of immunity you will already be forced into having to discriminate and that's without taking into account people who are exempt.

Furthermore, vaccination although very effective, is not 100% effective so the possibility for infection still remains and on top of this is the very real possibility of future variants that will be able to evade partly, or wholly the effect of vaccination. So the passport is likely to be very time limited.

The over riding problem to me is that the public might see the vaccination and associated proof as a sort of "get out of jail free" card and go back to normal.

We cannot afford to do that.

We have to find a new normal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 02, 2021, 09:29:25 AM
And the opposition to vaccine passports has united a very diverse group of MPs.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56605598
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 02, 2021, 09:44:18 AM
Over 50,000 cases in France yesterday!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 02, 2021, 10:53:34 AM
This is the major problem with a so-called passport. There was a virologist chappie on TV this morning explaining that it may well give a false sense of security, and that with currently only 51% having some kind of immunity you will already be forced into having to discriminate and that's without taking into account people who are exempt.

Furthermore, vaccination although very effective, is not 100% effective so the possibility for infection still remains and on top of this is the very real possibility of future variants that will be able to evade partly, or wholly the effect of vaccination. So the passport is likely to be very time limited.

The over riding problem to me is that the public might see the vaccination and associated proof as a sort of "get out of jail free" card and go back to normal.

We cannot afford to do that.

We have to find a new normal.

Yes. Especially with the inability of this govt. to develop any effective and efficient system.

But ... shove that all aside, we need to consider how good it would be in diverting money to friends of the mini-Trump and the conservative party. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 03, 2021, 08:57:05 AM
Meanwhile in Cardiff


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-56623504
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on April 03, 2021, 11:24:48 AM
Who wouldn't want to work from home? I'd love to, but forklift trucks don't drive themselves.

I hated working from home, enjoy going out to work. Don't mind bringing a bit of work home to do when I can fit it in, have always done that but not all the time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SweetPea on April 03, 2021, 11:54:51 AM
Chris Whitty says, no more lockdowns:

https://metro.co.uk/2021/04/02/no-more-uk-lockdowns-as-covid-will-be-treated-like-flu-14346326/

Fingers crossed....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 04, 2021, 10:04:07 PM
And Covid 'passports' ....


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56634176
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 06, 2021, 07:08:34 PM
AZ tests on children paused

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56656356
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on April 06, 2021, 07:48:10 PM
AZ tests on children paused

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56656356

Not tests but vaccinations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 06, 2021, 08:50:34 PM
Not tests but vaccinations.
It's not a vaccination programme. It's a trial programme. Test programmes include vaccinations. So we both phrased it wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on April 06, 2021, 09:02:20 PM
OK Sorry I misinterpreted your message.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 06, 2021, 09:03:38 PM
OK Sorry I misinterpreted your message.
No problem, it was my incorrect phrasing at fault.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on April 07, 2021, 05:55:37 AM

This could be a significant advancement in the battle against covid...!

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/sanotize-nasal-spray-reduces-covid-19-viral-load-uk-clinical-trail/

*********
A self-administered nitric oxide nasal spray (NONS) made by Vancouver-based biotech firm SaNOtize has been found to dramatically reduce Covid-19 viral load in infected patients after completing early-stage clinical trials in Canada and, most recently, the UK.

SaNOtize, alongside Ashford and St Peter’s Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and Berkshire and Surrey Pathology Services in the UK, have announced results of Phase II trials indicating that SaNOtize’s nasal spray represents a safe and powerful antiviral treatment that could prevent the transmission of Covid-19, shorten its duration, and reduce the severity of symptoms in those already infected.

*********
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on April 07, 2021, 10:44:11 AM
This could be a significant advancement in the battle against covid...!

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/sanotize-nasal-spray-reduces-covid-19-viral-load-uk-clinical-trail/

*********
A self-administered nitric oxide nasal spray (NONS) made by Vancouver-based biotech firm SaNOtize has been found to dramatically reduce Covid-19 viral load in infected patients after completing early-stage clinical trials in Canada and, most recently, the UK.

SaNOtize, alongside Ashford and St Peter’s Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and Berkshire and Surrey Pathology Services in the UK, have announced results of Phase II trials indicating that SaNOtize’s nasal spray represents a safe and powerful antiviral treatment that could prevent the transmission of Covid-19, shorten its duration, and reduce the severity of symptoms in those already infected.

*********
HERE'S HOPING!

And on the subject of hope, I hope you and yours are well, sir.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on April 07, 2021, 01:11:27 PM
HERE'S HOPING!

And on the subject of hope, I hope you and yours are well, sir.


I am fine Vlad....thanks a lot for asking! Hope you and family are well! :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 07, 2021, 02:16:51 PM
And Covid 'passports' ....


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56634176
Jolly good show.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 07, 2021, 09:38:10 PM
The offering of non AZ vaccines to under 30s seems reasonable


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56665517
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 13, 2021, 03:27:15 PM

Edinburgh International Festival to be 'outdoors'.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-56732112
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 15, 2021, 06:59:56 PM

Hmmm... more corruption?

https://bywire.news/articles/amp/health-secretary-matt-hancock-holds-a-stake-in-his-sisters-company-who-were-awarded-lucrative-nhs-contracts?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 17, 2021, 12:01:16 PM
Ridiculous!


https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-calculating-physical-distancing-capacity-in-public-settings/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 20, 2021, 09:17:22 AM
Seen on twitter about the corrupt lying incompetent racist thug PM


'No time to attend COBRA meetings, no time to meet the COVID bereaved, but convening an emergency meeting to discuss the European Super League is no problem. Especially when it’s such an effective distraction from Tory corruption.'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 20, 2021, 09:21:15 AM
And the sort of corruption it distracts from


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56667960.amp
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 20, 2021, 02:45:35 PM
And the sort of corruption it distracts from


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56667960.amp

Yep.

The problem isn't that Boris Johnson is an unethical, corrupt, lying devious dirtbag.

Everyone knows that.

The problem is that his supporters don't care.

(pinched from elsewhere).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 21, 2021, 07:41:27 PM
Quite incredibly after all of the sitters on corruption that Labour could have gone big on, Starmer went on this Dyson story which is an easy defence for the UK govt. This then undermines all the other issues. Atrocious decision from Labour.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56832486
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on April 21, 2021, 08:00:13 PM
Quite incredibly after all of the sitters on corruption that Labour could have gone big on, Starmer went on this Dyson story which is an easy defence for the UK govt. This then undermines all the other issues. Atrocious decision from Labour.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56832486
I rather think the public have gone past caring what Boris does although the huge problem with the deal with Dyson is if Johnson was favouring Dyson ahead of companies that were ready to go with tried and tested design.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 21, 2021, 08:03:34 PM
I rather think the public have gone past caring what Boris does although the huge problem with the deal with Dyson is if Johnson was favouring Dyson ahead of companies that were ready to go with tried and tested design.
which has got fuck all to do with this specific issue. Sheer idiocy from Labour.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 22, 2021, 11:04:46 AM
And here is a prime example of what Labour should have been concentrating on

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/22/fifth-of-uk-covid-contracts-raised-red-flags-for-possible-corruption?__twitter_impression=true
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on April 22, 2021, 11:28:27 AM
And here is a prime example of what Labour should have been concentrating on

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/22/fifth-of-uk-covid-contracts-raised-red-flags-for-possible-corruption?__twitter_impression=true
If he gets away with this. It is because the voters have given him carte blanche or a free pass because their little heads ache to figure out what is going on or because they are made moist by the cockwomble's evil antics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 22, 2021, 12:17:47 PM
If he gets away with this. It is because the voters have given him carte blanche or a free pass because their little heads ache to figure out what is going on or because they are made moist by the cockwomble's evil antics.
Stop letting Labour and Starmer off the hook. And youtlr witless snobbery mirrors that of the entitled Etonian eejits.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 22, 2021, 01:19:32 PM
The news from India is scary. I have 3 colleagues in hospital at the moment. Thoughts are with them, and hoping Sriram is well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 22, 2021, 01:34:20 PM
Yes - very scary. My partner's cousin is a Paediatric consultant in Goa, spoke to her a couple of days ago. Not sounding at all good.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on April 22, 2021, 02:18:56 PM
The news from India is scary. I have 3 colleagues in hospital at the moment. Thoughts are with them, and hoping Sriram is well.


I am fine NS. Thanks for asking!  :)

Yes....the situation is terrible in India especially in some states. The authorities did not have a sense of urgency and were complacent till last week. Luckily the death rate is fairly low compared to the number of cases...though in absolute numbers it is high.

Vaccinations are at 10%...   Given the numbers (only 1390 million people)...will take several months to get to a reasonable number.   

Hoping for the best.

Thanks once again!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 23, 2021, 12:34:00 AM
The 'systemic leaking' of Cumming


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-dominic-cummings-dyson-b1836174.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 23, 2021, 02:34:49 PM

I am fine NS. Thanks for asking!  :)

Yes....the situation is terrible in India especially in some states. The authorities did not have a sense of urgency and were complacent till last week. Luckily the death rate is fairly low compared to the number of cases...though in absolute numbers it is high.

Vaccinations are at 10%...   Given the numbers (only 1390 million people)...will take several months to get to a reasonable number.   

Hoping for the best.

Thanks once again!
Good to hear you are OK.

But it seems to me that "complacent" is not a strong enough term... this was all predictable and there was plenty of time to avoid it. Instead the authorities wilfully ignored potential problems and carried on with cricket, political and religious gatherings, travel ... hubris and arrogance similar to the initial stupidity of Johnson, Trump etc. 

Everyone I know here with connections to India, has been bombarded by crap e-mails from friends and relatives - pushing rumours and false cures.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on April 24, 2021, 05:57:12 PM
   From a friend of mine in India. Drastic times indeed. https://thelogicalindian.com/trending/delhi-high-court-will-hang-if-find-obstructed-27941?fbclid=IwAR1CNvpd0Fxv_Erls7ouHAFYgxWGPernB6E8Q0MnhBH9imOEK6aKwKU8wXg
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on April 24, 2021, 07:24:04 PM
I agree, it's very worrying. Saw some really frightened people interviewed on TV last night. I wish there was something we could do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 27, 2021, 09:58:20 AM
If Johnson told me today was Tuesday, I would have to assume that was the one day it wasn't


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56897213
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on April 27, 2021, 12:56:44 PM
:-)
Too right!

The scenes in India are heartbreaking. They put everything into perspective. I've come home for lunch and feeling a bit 'dicky', looking at the pictures in the media makes me realise how fortunate I am. A bit of an upset stomach will pass, here today gone tomorrow - I ate too much yesterday, aren't I lucky to be able to do that and to have access to over the counter medication if I need it? On that level I feel better already.

So many of the Indian population will not recover.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 27, 2021, 09:32:17 PM
Al fresco


https://www.glasgowlive.co.uk/news/glasgow-news/glasgow-beer-garden-snap-goes-20479505
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 28, 2021, 07:30:05 PM
Indian colleague who works in London had her out of office up today. Phoned to check if they were ok. Father died of covid yesterday, and their mother and brother are in hospital with it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on April 28, 2021, 10:49:48 PM
Oh no, that is so sad. When you know someone affected it really brings it home to you. I have two Indian colleagues. and neighbours, a couple about same age as Charlie and me with whom we are quite friendly, all are very worried about friends and relatives in India.

I feel helpless but there must be a charity currently helping the people affected in India, their families, funeral expenses and all that. Does anyone know of a reputable one? I don't want to ask my friends, prefer to keep things like that private.It would be a drop in the ocean but many drops  add up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 28, 2021, 10:53:44 PM
You could try this one:

https://www.britishasiantrust.org/

Does good work according to relatives in India.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 29, 2021, 10:51:55 AM
Brutal and distressing from Arundhati Roy


https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/apr/28/crime-against-humanity-arundhati-roy-india-covid-catastrophe?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1619651240
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 29, 2021, 11:03:25 AM
That is so upsetting. I don't know what else to say, except if you can give to a charity - then do give.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on April 29, 2021, 06:26:43 PM
Thank you very much Trent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 30, 2021, 06:59:04 PM
So had an e-mail from the partners cousin in Goa.

She said: "Bad, bad, bad. This is the end of India."

Given that I have known her for 40 years and I know that she is not one for hyperbole, I find her communication very worrying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 30, 2021, 07:04:04 PM
Just heard from my colleague that her mother has died as well. Both parents dead in 3 days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 30, 2021, 07:09:18 PM
Just heard from my colleague that her mother has died as well. Both parents dead in 3 days.

Heartbreaking.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on April 30, 2021, 08:18:14 PM
So had an e-mail from the partners cousin in Goa. She said: "Bad, bad, bad. This is the end of India." Given that I have known her for 40 years and I know that she is not one for hyperbole, I find her communication very worrying.
I'm getting similar emails from a friend who lives in Bangalore; it seems that the MSM is concentrating on Delhi, but other cities are now equally affected, as are some rural areas, where health care is, at best, rudimentary. We are not seeing just how horrific this is - though what we ARE seeing is bad enough. Now, Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan all report sharp increases in cases as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on April 30, 2021, 08:19:32 PM
Just heard from my colleague that her mother has died as well. Both parents dead in 3 days.
   



Horrible, NS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on April 30, 2021, 08:36:39 PM
Just heard from my colleague that her mother has died as well. Both parents dead in 3 days.

Hard to imagine just how traumatic that must be for her.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 30, 2021, 09:14:45 PM
Hard to imagine just how traumatic that must be for her.
And she can't go back for the funerals.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 04, 2021, 10:09:43 AM
Indian Cricket T20 league suspended because of Covid

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/56978321
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 04, 2021, 10:47:03 AM
Indian Cricket T20 league suspended because of Covid

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/56978321
Given the situation in India, I'm surprised it took this long.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on May 04, 2021, 10:12:14 PM
Can't find adequate words, terribly, terribly sad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on May 05, 2021, 06:07:14 AM

Thanks guys for discussing the India situation.

Yes...it is a bad situation.  The authorities did not anticipate the accelerated spike that has taken place.  They probably thought.... even if a second wave comes around it would be similar to the first. But the second wave is several times more  infectious and deadly than the first.  It is catching on by leaps and bounds.

Oxygen, Remdesivir, ventilators and even hospital beds are in short supply.....similar to the situation Italy faced last year.

Vaccinations were planned when the pandemic was at a low....sometime in November. It was a slow, long term, leisurely plan.  But the second wave has now made vaccinations an urgency......and there is short supply.

Anyway the front line warriors are holding up...and the graph appears to be peaking. 

Hoping for the best.

One plus is that many Indians are rejecting superstitious beliefs and swamis and such people.  Faith in science is growing.  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on May 05, 2021, 02:25:51 PM
India cases
Updated 5 May at 13:51 local
Confirmed
20,698,476

Deaths
226,578

Recovered
16,967,189

 
 United Kingdom
Coronavirus Cases:
4,423,796

Deaths:
127,543

Recovered:
4,234,772

UK Population
68,562,151

India Population
1,393,409,038
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Enki on May 05, 2021, 02:44:21 PM
Thanks guys for discussing the India situation.

Yes...it is a bad situation.  The authorities did not anticipate the accelerated spike that has taken place.  They probably thought.... even if a second wave comes around it would be similar to the first. But the second wave is several times more  infectious and deadly than the first.  It is catching on by leaps and bounds.

Oxygen, Remdesivir, ventilators and even hospital beds are in short supply.....similar to the situation Italy faced last year.

Vaccinations were planned when the pandemic was at a low....sometime in November. It was a slow, long term, leisurely plan.  But the second wave has now made vaccinations an urgency......and there is short supply.

Anyway the front line warriors are holding up...and the graph appears to be peaking. 

Hoping for the best.

One plus is that many Indians are rejecting superstitious beliefs and swamis and such people.  Faith in science is growing.  :)

Hi Sriram,

Glad to see you are alright. We've had our own major problems with coronovirus in the UK as you no doubt know. My sister caught it and died, so I can only imagine the distress and heartache present in so many Indian families at the moment. I can only hope that our country, along with other countries, increase their assistance in what looks like an emergency situation. Stay safe.
                  Enki
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 05, 2021, 02:59:32 PM
India cases
Updated 5 May at 13:51 local
Confirmed
20,698,476

Deaths
226,578

Recovered
16,967,189

 
 United Kingdom
Coronavirus Cases:
4,423,796

Deaths:
127,543

Recovered:
4,234,772

UK Population
68,562,151

India Population
1,393,409,038
And?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 05, 2021, 11:41:15 PM
And?
The conclusion I draw is that India is actually doing better than Britain, proportional to their population sizes. That's not to trivialise the situation in India. It's probably very bad in certain regions of India. (That's assuming that Vlad's figures are accurate, of course.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on May 06, 2021, 06:23:19 AM
Hi Sriram,

Glad to see you are alright. We've had our own major problems with coronovirus in the UK as you no doubt know. My sister caught it and died, so I can only imagine the distress and heartache present in so many Indian families at the moment. I can only hope that our country, along with other countries, increase their assistance in what looks like an emergency situation. Stay safe.
                  Enki



Thanks a lot Enki. Very sorry to hear of your sister!

Yes...the situation is very heart rending....more so because many more younger people are dying this time around as compared to the first wave. And it seems to speed up suddenly. A person has a mild bad throat one day and the next day he is struggling for oxygen and the third day he is dead..... :(

They say some kind of a double mutant is responsible for the surge...







 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on May 06, 2021, 06:39:37 AM
Thanks guys for discussing the India situation.

Yes...it is a bad situation.  The authorities did not anticipate the accelerated spike that has taken place.  They probably thought.... even if a second wave comes around it would be similar to the first. But the second wave is several times more  infectious and deadly than the first.  It is catching on by leaps and bounds.

Oxygen, Remdesivir, ventilators and even hospital beds are in short supply.....similar to the situation Italy faced last year.

Vaccinations were planned when the pandemic was at a low....sometime in November. It was a slow, long term, leisurely plan.  But the second wave has now made vaccinations an urgency......and there is short supply.

Anyway the front line warriors are holding up...and the graph appears to be peaking. 

Hoping for the best.

One plus is that many Indians are rejecting superstitious beliefs and swamis and such people.  Faith in science is growing.  :)
That last sentence is most certinly a very promising sign for the future.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 07, 2021, 01:36:20 PM
The conclusion I draw is that India is actually doing better than Britain, proportional to their population sizes. That's not to trivialise the situation in India. It's probably very bad in certain regions of India. (That's assuming that Vlad's figures are accurate, of course.)

There are important reasons why this probably isn't true.

Firstly, the chances of the Indian figures being anything close to reality are pretty low. Secondly, India's healthcare resources per capita are woeful compared to hours. It was touch and go, but our health service was never overwhelmed.

Thirdly, the situation in India is getting worse and there's no prospect of a turn around anytime soon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on May 08, 2021, 07:23:41 AM

There seems to be some sort of a turn around already in some states.  It is at least flattening somewhat. We are grateful to UK and other countries for their timely help.

The authorities were pretty slow in reacting to the spike.....and the spike was really steep this time. That was the problem. If they had reacted just 15 days earlier and also avoided election rallies and stuff....things might have been in control.

On the positive side, the number of cases and even deaths as a percentage (per 100K) of the population is relatively low even now...

https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-maps-and-cases/






Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 10, 2021, 07:47:56 PM

Not a parody

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/may/10/gwyneth-paltrow-pandemic-lowest-point?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=edit_2221&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1620665298
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 10, 2021, 08:14:20 PM
Not a parody

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/may/10/gwyneth-paltrow-pandemic-lowest-point?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=edit_2221&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1620665298

Have you read the comments? Hilarious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 10, 2021, 09:26:36 PM
Have you read the comments? Hilarious.
I think the comments are brutal about the Guardian's sad ineptitude but since many of them are about people's deaths, 'Hilarious' seems misapplied.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 10, 2021, 11:07:53 PM
Unconvinced by the Olympics too


https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/57062008
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 11, 2021, 08:45:11 AM
I think the comments are brutal about the Guardian's sad ineptitude but since many of them are about people's deaths, 'Hilarious' seems misapplied.
A few of them are about people dying, but quite a lot of them are hilarious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on May 11, 2021, 11:02:54 AM
That last sentence is most certinly a very promising sign for the future.
But I think we have seen Science increasingly overruled by politics and economics during the pandemic and that isn't a promising sign.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 12, 2021, 04:32:36 PM

Bugger


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-57086760?at_campaign=64&at_medium=custom7&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_custom2=twitter&at_custom4=33748982-B32E-11EB-9E81-6E324D484DA4&at_custom3=%40BBCScotlandNews
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on May 14, 2021, 10:22:51 AM
I see his point (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PgIUDn__WU&t=703s) but what is the alternative?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Stranger on May 14, 2021, 12:22:41 PM
I see his point (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PgIUDn__WU&t=703s) but what is the alternative?

He doesn't have a point, it's nonsense.

AFP Fact Check - Mass Covid-19 vaccination will not lead to ‘out of control’ variants (https://factcheck.afp.com/mass-covid-19-vaccination-will-not-lead-out-control-variants).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 14, 2021, 05:07:48 PM


And I remain in Level 3


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-57115876
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on May 14, 2021, 07:39:14 PM
He doesn't have a point, it's nonsense.

AFP Fact Check - Mass Covid-19 vaccination will not lead to ‘out of control’ variants (https://factcheck.afp.com/mass-covid-19-vaccination-will-not-lead-out-control-variants).
Thanks for this, I hadn't (yet) thought to fact check it. If he hasn't got a point, why have the government been so worried about the emerging variants?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Stranger on May 14, 2021, 08:21:21 PM
Thanks for this, I hadn't (yet) thought to fact check it. If he hasn't got a point, why have the government been so worried about the emerging variants?

Variants are inevitable with any virus and some of them will be worrying because they either spread faster or the current vaccines may not work as well on them. The way to prevent even more variants is to limit its spread by vaccination. As it said in the fact check article:

Joe Grove, a virologist at the Institute of Immunity and Transplantation at University College London, explained that even though vaccination could drive some virus changes, “it is not credible that widespread immunity will drive the emergence of a monster virus.”

“If we’re worried about the Covid-19 becoming some ‘super-virus,’ the best way to stop that is to stop it from replicating and the best way to do that is vaccines,” he added.

This was also confirmed by Scott Halperin, director of the Canadian Centre for Vaccinology.

“If we rapidly achieve high levels of population immunity through vaccination, the risk of variant emergence is decreased because there are insufficient numbers of susceptible individuals to continue the propagation of the virus and spread through the community,” he said.


This is also why we need to be concerned to get vaccines to as many people in the whole world as we possibly can because if there are unvaccinated populations anywhere, that increases the potential for variants to emerge
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on May 15, 2021, 11:48:44 AM
Variants are inevitable with any virus and some of them will be worrying because they either spread faster or the current vaccines may not work as well on them. The way to prevent even more variants is to limit its spread by vaccination. As it said in the fact check article:

Joe Grove, a virologist at the Institute of Immunity and Transplantation at University College London, explained that even though vaccination could drive some virus changes, “it is not credible that widespread immunity will drive the emergence of a monster virus.”

Geert pointed out that the 1918 flu pandemic had few strains and was over in a year, with no vaccination. He also said the problem with mass vaccination is that however fast it's done, there is still a time lag while the body is developing specific antibodies, which is enough time for mutants to become predominant.

He doesn't say anything about a monster virus during the interview (almost 2 hours).

From what I can understand, he is putting a lot of emphasis on the importance of the innate (unspecific) immune system and worrying that this could in future, when you have new variants, be rendered ineffective by the acquired antibodies to the vaccines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Stranger on May 15, 2021, 12:19:48 PM
Geert pointed out that the 1918 flu pandemic had few strains and was over in a year, with no vaccination.

Since genomic sequencing wasn't actually a thing in 1918, one has to wonder how he knows how many variants there were. Also, 50 million people died (according to the CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html)).

From what I can understand, he is putting a lot of emphasis on the importance of the innate (unspecific) immune system and worrying that this could in future, when you have new variants, be rendered ineffective by the acquired antibodies to the vaccines.

I really don't see how this makes the slightest bit of sense. The vaccine is designed to stimulate the an immune response in the same way as getting the decease does. I don't see how this sort of thing can be usefully discussed (unless we have any well informed virologists here). I'm not an expert so I'd rather go with what they say rather than some maverick vet.

We also know, from extensive experience, that vaccines are effective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 15, 2021, 04:19:15 PM
Geert pointed out that the 1918 flu pandemic had few strains and was over in a year, with no vaccination. He also said the problem with mass vaccination is that however fast it's done, there is still a time lag while the body is developing specific antibodies, which is enough time for mutants to become predominant.

He doesn't say anything about a monster virus during the interview (almost 2 hours).

From what I can understand, he is putting a lot of emphasis on the importance of the innate (unspecific) immune system and worrying that this could in future, when you have new variants, be rendered ineffective by the acquired antibodies to the vaccines.

If we had done nothing about COVID19, maybe the worst would be over now but so would the lives of hundreds of millions of people.

Spanish flu wasn't over in a year, by the way. The pandemic lasted for more than two years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 15, 2021, 05:39:04 PM
Get drinking


https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/brits-drink-124-pints-each-struggling-pubs-covid-lockdown-b935186.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 15, 2021, 06:45:44 PM
Get drinking


https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/brits-drink-124-pints-each-struggling-pubs-covid-lockdown-b935186.html

Ha. I think I may have done that last Sunday. I went to a fundraiser for the Bag of Nails (https://www.facebook.com/TheBagofCats/) and drank far too much beer, especially since the previous time I had been to a pub was the Bag of Nails just before the last full lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on May 17, 2021, 08:01:09 PM

I really don't see how this makes the slightest bit of sense. The vaccine is designed to stimulate the an immune response in the same way as getting the decease does. I don't see how this sort of thing can be usefully discussed (unless we have any well informed virologists here). I'm not an expert so I'd rather go with what they say rather than some maverick vet.

We also know, from extensive experience, that vaccines are effective.
I'm not sure that I got that right. There do seem to be professionals asking questions about the safety of the vaccines, and because I can understand quite a bit of it I am interested. The Belgian vet is quite hard to follow due to his accent, and having looked again at the interview I can't see how his argument takes into account the success of the vaccines that is being demonstrated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on May 17, 2021, 08:08:56 PM
If we had done nothing about COVID19, maybe the worst would be over now but so would the lives of hundreds of millions of people.
I agree, but because I believe we are created with adequate repair mechanisms I don't think vaccines are the only answer, especially for those who are healthy. The idea that the whole world should be vaccinated seems very sinister to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 18, 2021, 01:24:06 PM
I agree, but because I believe we are created with adequate repair mechanisms I don't think vaccines are the only answer, especially for those who are healthy. The idea that the whole world should be vaccinated seems very sinister to me.
What is really sinister is people endangering millions by arguing against science.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 18, 2021, 10:06:11 PM
Should I Stay Or Should I Go

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57158372
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 20, 2021, 05:36:02 PM
And not getting into the pub anytime soon here

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-57189500
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on May 20, 2021, 08:16:59 PM
I agree, but because I believe we are created with adequate repair mechanisms I don't think vaccines are the only answer, especially for those who are healthy. The idea that the whole world should be vaccinated seems very sinister to me.

Eh?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on May 20, 2021, 10:15:15 PM
I agree, but because I believe we are created with adequate repair mechanisms I don't think vaccines are the only answer, especially for those who are healthy. The idea that the whole world should be vaccinated seems very sinister to me.

Do you have any idea of what a vaccine is?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on May 21, 2021, 03:34:39 AM
What is really sinister is people endangering millions by arguing against science.
The UK number of new infections dropped to very low levels once the first four priority categories had been vaccinated. This made me think that it wasn't necessary for everyone to be done.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on May 21, 2021, 04:00:26 AM
Since genomic sequencing wasn't actually a thing in 1918, one has to wonder how he knows how many variants there were. Also, 50 million people died (according to the CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html)).

I really don't see how this makes the slightest bit of sense. The vaccine is designed to stimulate the an immune response in the same way as getting the decease does. I don't see how this sort of thing can be usefully discussed (unless we have any well informed virologists here). I'm not an expert so I'd rather go with what they say rather than some maverick vet.

We also know, from extensive experience, that vaccines are effective.
I've found the bit where he explains how the innate immune system might be inhibited by vaccine-induced antibodies that can no longer neutralise the virus. Go to 9:08 here:
https://youtu.be/2dX_Cr7lh-g
Whether he's right, I don't know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on May 21, 2021, 06:51:40 AM
I've found the bit where he explains how the innate immune system might be inhibited by vaccine-induced antibodies that can no longer neutralise the virus. Go to 9:08 here:
https://youtu.be/2dX_Cr7lh-g
Whether he's right, I don't know.

He's not. It shows he knows nothing of the immune system or vaccines. He clearly confuses over use of antibiotics with mass vaccination (which is basically his argument) but the two aren't comparable because they work in completely different ways.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on May 21, 2021, 05:24:55 PM
He's not. It shows he knows nothing of the immune system or vaccines. He clearly confuses over use of antibiotics with mass vaccination (which is basically his argument) but the two aren't comparable because they work in completely different ways.
I'm not sure which part of the interview you got that from. About 6 minutes after the end of the above section, Bret Weinstein compares Geert's theory with not completing a course of antibiotics (because you feel better before you've completely eliminated the bacteria) thus the remaining bacteria which were most resistant to the antibiotic will regenerate.
That seems comparable with vaccine-induced viral resistance to me.
However, I'm not sure he is right that there is a correlation between vaccination during this pandemic and the emergence of the more vaccine-resistant strains. Yet. It might be that lockdown has led to induced resistance, though and could be correlated with emerging strains. Eg the Kent variant emerged after the UK lockdown last year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 21, 2021, 05:59:37 PM
Quote
However, I'm not sure he is right that there is a correlation between vaccination during this pandemic and the emergence of the more vaccine-resistant strains. Yet. It might be that lockdown has led to induced resistance, though and could be correlated with emerging strains. Eg the Kent variant emerged after the UK lockdown last year.

There is no correlation between vaccination and new variants. There is a correlation between the emergence of new variants and allowing the vaccine to spread and multiply. Hence countries that allowed the virus to spread more freely saw variants arise. The UK, South Africa Brazil and India. And remember no vaccinations had taken place when the Kent variant emerged.

The more virus in general circulation the more chance of mutations. This is not new.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on May 21, 2021, 06:18:44 PM
He's a quack! The variants appeared before any mass vaccinations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on May 21, 2021, 08:22:43 PM
Had a look at some dates. Brazilian, South African and Kent variants emerged Dec 2020. Indian emerged October (but did not cause immediate surge). So these all emerged after the peak of the first waves, when selection pressure from naturally produced antibodies and lockdown measures would have led to mutant strains being selected for and becoming dominant.
The point being, lockdown may help induce resistance. Too early to know if vaccination does too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 21, 2021, 08:34:43 PM
Had a look at some dates. Brazilian, South African and Kent variants emerged Dec 2020. Indian emerged October (but did not cause immediate surge). So these all emerged after the peak of the first waves, when selection pressure from naturally produced antibodies and lockdown measures would have led to mutant strains being selected for and becoming dominant.
The point being, lockdown may help induce resistance. Too early to know if vaccination does too.
Drivel.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on May 22, 2021, 11:25:58 AM
Drivel.
Rude
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 22, 2021, 11:42:48 AM
Rude
Perhaps, but nonetheless accurate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 22, 2021, 04:59:22 PM
Rude

Well I thought NS was being quite restrained, given the idiocy that you posted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on May 22, 2021, 05:23:16 PM
Well I thought NS was being quite restrained, given the idiocy that you posted.
It was a response to the claim that there is no correlation between variants and vaccines. None is apparent yet, but there seems to be a correlation between variants and human pressure on the virus in the form of lock down. (I'm not saying lock down is bad). If you think there isn't, say so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on May 22, 2021, 05:36:41 PM
Perhaps, but nonetheless accurate.
My main concern is the claim that everybody should be vaccinated. I'm not against the older population taking it, since the innate immune system depletes with age, and it can save many lives. But the Belgian vet has raised concern that the vaccine could interfere with the innate immune system's ability to neutralize future virus strains, so that people who would  have been able to neutralize them without vaccination (eg young adults) will then become dependent on vaccines. If you understand the biology, feel free to say I'm talking rubbish. The innate immune system is what fights off the flu after a few days - without antibodies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 22, 2021, 05:39:52 PM
Had a look at some dates. Brazilian, South African and Kent variants emerged Dec 2020.
Nonsense - the Kent variant emerged way earlier than that. The Kent variant was first isolated and sequenced in September - it was first designated a variant of concern in Dec, but it had been around for months by them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on May 22, 2021, 05:41:16 PM
If you understand the biology, feel free to say I'm talking rubbish.
I am a professional scientist working in the field of cell biology. Spud, you are talking rubbish.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on May 22, 2021, 05:44:33 PM
My main concern is the claim that everybody should be vaccinated. I'm not against the older population taking it, since the innate immune system depletes with age, and it can save many lives. But the Belgian vet has raised concern that the vaccine could interfere with the innate immune system's ability to neutralize future virus strains, so that people who would  have been able to neutralize them without vaccination (eg young adults) will then become dependent on vaccines. If you understand the biology, feel free to say I'm talking rubbish. The innate immune system is what fights off the flu after a few days - without antibodies.

Vaccines have nothing to with innate immune system. Vaccines teach the adaptive immune system to fight off viruses.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on May 22, 2021, 06:34:31 PM
I am a professional scientist working in the field of cell biology. Spud, you are talking rubbish.
I don't doubt that he is, but it'd be more helpful if you explained why.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on May 22, 2021, 06:59:32 PM
Vaccines have nothing to with innate immune system. Vaccines teach the adaptive immune system to fight off viruses.
I am a professional scientist working in the field of cell biology. Spud, you are talking rubbish.
Okay, so a simple question: if young people use their innate immune system (which depletes with age) to neutralize coronavirus, why do they need to be vaccinated?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 22, 2021, 07:06:01 PM
Okay, so a simple question: if young people use their innate immune system (which depletes with age) to neutralize coronavirus, why do they need to be vaccinated?

Spud

Why do you think it is that 'flu' vaccines can be offered to susceptible people on an annual basis?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 22, 2021, 07:07:25 PM
Okay, so a simple question: if young people use their innate immune system (which depletes with age) to neutralize coronavirus, why do they need to be vaccinated?

Because this is a new virus to humans that we have no natural immunity for. Yes, most people will fight the virus off but it will continue to mutate if there is too much of it in circulation. In addition, even though many will fight it off without any problems, a large enough number will not and will in the worst case scenario die, or will be left with long covid. The mutations, as we have seen with the Indian variant is affecting younger people and they are dying without vaccination and proper medical treatment. What are you finding so difficult to understand?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on May 22, 2021, 07:17:05 PM
Spud

Why do you think it is that 'flu' vaccines can be offered to susceptible people on an annual basis?
What does that have to do with my question?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on May 22, 2021, 07:43:15 PM
Because this is a new virus to humans that we have no natural immunity for. Yes, most people will fight the virus off but it will continue to mutate if there is too much of it in circulation. In addition, even though many will fight it off without any problems, a large enough number will not and will in the worst case scenario die, or will be left with long covid. The mutations, as we have seen with the Indian variant is affecting younger people and they are dying without vaccination and proper medical treatment. What are you finding so difficult to understand?
Presumably there's a threshold level of vaccination at which herd immunity will occur?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 22, 2021, 07:50:44 PM
Presumably there's a threshold level of vaccination at which herd immunity will occur?

This explains more about threshold levels.

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/herd-immunity-lockdowns-and-covid-19

As yet they do not have a definite figure, but purely going on the way it spreads so easily I think it's going to fall at the higher end of the 70 - 85% range that has been predicted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 22, 2021, 07:55:04 PM
And on vaccinations in general. This outlines why they are so very important and effective:

https://ourworldindata.org/vaccination
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 22, 2021, 08:42:07 PM
What does that have to do with my question?

Whoosh!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 23, 2021, 06:13:18 PM
BBC interviewer:-
'How did Singapore handle pandemic so well?'
Singapore Health Official:- 'Question should be "How did UK not handle it so well?"'
BBC interviewer:-
'What do you mean?'
Singapore Health Official:-
'We followed 'UK Pandemic Response Protocol', the UK did not!'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 24, 2021, 05:08:24 PM
Just heard that colleague in India has died from Covid. He had a six year old son.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on May 25, 2021, 08:11:01 AM
Just heard that colleague in India has died from Covid. He had a six year old son.
So many sad stories. And I know this is off topic, but I heard yesterday there is a 5-year-old boy who was the only survivor of the Italian ski-lift disaster.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 25, 2021, 09:59:44 AM

Confusion, or a deliberate hiding of bad news?


https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/government-changes-covid-19-guidance-in-8-areas-with-no-official-announcement/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 25, 2021, 10:02:52 AM
Confusion, or a deliberate hiding of bad news?


https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/government-changes-covid-19-guidance-in-8-areas-with-no-official-announcement/

Confusion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on May 25, 2021, 10:25:43 AM
Confusion.

I'd have said ineptitude. But yes, not, I think, deliberate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on May 25, 2021, 10:54:12 AM
I'd have said ineptitude. But yes, not, I think, deliberate.

Sorry, I thought that's what you meant. There's no point in making new rules if you are not going to tell the affected people that they exist.If you wanted to hide the bad news, you wouldn't make the new rules up at all. This is pure incompetence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on May 25, 2021, 11:01:27 AM
Confusion, or a deliberate hiding of bad news?


https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/government-changes-covid-19-guidance-in-8-areas-with-no-official-announcement/

Possibly both: but given that Johnson has to cater to his Tory lunatic fringe element, who seem to want no restrictions at all as of yesterday, and since he has recently said that he sees no current impediments to the target June date (in England) for the removal of restrictions, I'd imagine that anything that might prejudice that wouldn't be welcome news from Johnson's perspective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 01, 2021, 11:28:21 AM
Deaths in Peru reassessed to nearly 3 times what was the estimate. Suspect this applies in more countries.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-57307861
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on June 01, 2021, 12:38:41 PM
Deaths in Peru reassessed to nearly 3 times what was the estimate. Suspect this applies in more countries.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-57307861
     


I'm afraid to even take a guess at the numbers fro India. 300,000 seems ludicrously underestimated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 01, 2021, 02:32:55 PM

Level 2!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-57315436
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 01, 2021, 04:27:39 PM
Zero daily deaths in the UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57320320

However, the number of cases is on the rise, so don't expect this to continue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 06, 2021, 02:56:55 PM
Of course


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dido-harding-eyes-role-as-head-of-nhs-sqzww3fb9
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on June 07, 2021, 09:56:37 AM
Of course


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dido-harding-eyes-role-as-head-of-nhs-sqzww3fb9
"Eyes role"? I'm sure many people's will. Keep Dido Queen of Carnage away from the NHS, or we're doomed!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 07, 2021, 02:15:18 PM
Cases are rising fast. I really don't want them to delay the opening up on the 21st, but I fear for the future if we don't.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Deaths haven't caught up with the trend though and perhaps they won't, if we are lucky. On a positive note, the increase in cases doesn't seem to be affecting hospital admissions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 07, 2021, 03:19:54 PM
I have just ordered some anti-fog nose clips to put on my face masks, they are supposed to stop my specs steaming up. I hope they work.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 09, 2021, 08:57:46 PM

Boris Johnson saying that children of wealthy parents have access to private tutoring "because of their parents' hard work".

So parents whose pay isn't high enough to afford tutoring are not hard working? Johnson is just such a prick.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 14, 2021, 10:25:11 AM
The present lockdown rules here will stay in place for at least another four weeks, which is wise as the delta variant is spreading
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on June 15, 2021, 06:06:00 AM
Johnson is just such a prick.

So you are favourably disposed towards him, then?

It will be interesting to learn how much of the hospitality and similar industries will respond to this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 15, 2021, 09:55:32 AM
It will be interesting to learn how much of the hospitality and similar industries will respond to this.
I think the extension is prudent in the circumstances, don't you?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on June 15, 2021, 10:29:26 AM
Yes, I do think it prudent, but I am also concerned about what appears to be a deliberate political decision to permit significant elements of the economy to bear the cost.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 15, 2021, 10:39:08 AM
Quote
It will be interesting to learn how much of the hospitality and similar industries will respond to this.

Lloyd Webber has already spoken about this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-57410819

It will be interesting to see if he follows through.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 15, 2021, 11:13:14 AM
Lloyd Webber has already spoken about this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-57410819

It will be interesting to see if he follows through.

What an idiot he is, the safety of the public is much more important than opening up a theatre. >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 15, 2021, 11:45:46 AM
Yes, I do think it prudent, but I am also concerned about what appears to be a deliberate political decision to permit significant elements of the economy to bear the cost.
That's not the political decision. It's unfortunate but inevitable that the sector of the economy that relies on getting lots of people close together will get the worst of this.

The political decision is exempting some events from the restrictions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 15, 2021, 11:46:54 AM
Lloyd Webber has already spoken about this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-57410819

It will be interesting to see if he follows through.

Seems a bit pointless. All the police need to do is station a few officers at the public entrances and the theatre won't have an audience.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 16, 2021, 05:18:24 PM
Today's daily summary is cause for cautious optimism I think.

The infections rose by 32% (rolling seven day average) which is obviously not good, but the percentage is less than previous days. This means that the growth may not be exponential.

Deaths remained flat but hospital admissions are going up significantly. Hopefully that's just a symptom of the fact that they are starting from a low base.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 16, 2021, 07:02:50 PM

That thing when you agree with Boris Johnson but realise that he employed someone he thought was totally fucking hopeless which shows him as totally fucking hopeless

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jun/16/cummings-texts-show-boris-johnson-calling-matt-hancock-totally-hopeless
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on June 16, 2021, 11:03:10 PM
What an idiot he is, the safety of the public is much more important than opening up a theatre. >:(
It's certainly more important than staging the sort of shite he composes!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 17, 2021, 07:41:09 AM
What an idiot he is, the safety of the public is much more important than opening up a theatre. >:(

While this is true, please remember that there are people whose income is dependent on theatres being open. The situation is not totally black and white.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 21, 2021, 09:31:06 AM
Disturbing news from the USA:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/20/us-covid-delta-variant-spreads-vaccination-rates-drop
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on June 21, 2021, 09:57:20 AM

Republicans introduce bill to fire Fauci...

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2021/06/15/Republicans-bill-Anthony-Fauci-firing/8271623797953/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 21, 2021, 11:07:00 AM
People testing positive are rising by 33% and have been around this since my last post on the subject. This is exponential growth which is bad news. Hospital admissions are increasing at a scary rate (40%) but deaths are still more or less flat.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

I think the explanation for this is that most of the increase in infections is in young people who have a better chance of surviving the virus than older people, but I am a bit puzzled by the high level of hospital admissions if this is the case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on June 22, 2021, 05:30:40 PM
If cases are increasing among 12-34 year-olds, admissions remain at a level where hospitals can cope, and severity is reduced, I'm wondering if that would that mean the need to vaccinate the young is less urgent? Indeed was it necessary to vaccinate those below, say, 50?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 22, 2021, 06:08:04 PM
If cases are increasing among 12-34 year-olds, admissions remain at a level where hospitals can cope, and severity is reduced, I'm wondering if that would that mean the need to vaccinate the young is less urgent? Indeed was it necessary to vaccinate those below, say, 50?

No. We still need to contain the spread to minimise the risk of variants.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 22, 2021, 07:07:12 PM
If cases are increasing among 12-34 year-olds, admissions remain at a level where hospitals can cope, and severity is reduced, I'm wondering if that would that mean the need to vaccinate the young is less urgent? Indeed was it necessary to vaccinate those below, say, 50?
Everybody should be vaccinated who can be. Young people may not be so prone to dying, but they can still have serious long term symptoms. Furthermore, the more people you vaccinate, the harder it is for this virus to spread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on June 23, 2021, 10:17:18 AM
No. We still need to contain the spread to minimise the risk of variants.
The converse view is that you don't want to be challenging the immune system of an uninfected person unless you know he/she is going to be adversely affected by a pathogen. Doing so will take away from the body's ability to respond to future challenges. If I'm not mistaken, this is why the immune system is depleted as we get older.
My gut feeling is, if it isn't broken, don't fix it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 23, 2021, 10:24:27 AM
You are wrong. One of the problems with this virus is that our immune system does not know what to do with it. It doesn't know it. Therefore as we have already seen there are a wide variety of reactions form the very mild to the deadly. Whilst younger people are less likely to die, you will still get some deaths and you will be visiting on others the "long covid" syndrome. That is before we get onto the possibility of new variants that could evade both the vaccines available and our immune system.

Giving people a vaccine for smallpox or polio hasn't affected the way our immune system responds to other threats so I'm really not sure what your point is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 23, 2021, 10:26:19 AM
The converse view is that you don't want to be challenging the immune system of an uninfected person unless you know he/she is going to be adversely affected by a pathogen. Doing so will take away from the body's ability to respond to future challenges. If I'm not mistaken, this is why the immune system is depleted as we get older.
My gut feeling is, if it isn't broken, don't fix it.

That sort of attitude is causing the virus to spread. >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 24, 2021, 12:58:27 PM
This maybe belongs in the joke thread, but it's not quite a joke as I do relate to it so I'll leave it here:

"The thought of going back to life without a mask scares me.........I've been mouthing "fuck off" to people for months and I'm not sure I can stop"

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 24, 2021, 06:50:06 PM
The converse view is that you don't want to be challenging the immune system of an uninfected person unless you know he/she is going to be adversely affected by a pathogen. Doing so will take away from the body's ability to respond to future challenges. If I'm not mistaken, this is why the immune system is depleted as we get older.
My gut feeling is, if it isn't broken, don't fix it.

We've challenged the immune systems of 43 million people in the UK so far. The vast majority of them are perfectly fine and their vaccinations will help us beat this disease.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 24, 2021, 07:07:45 PM
Two jags done
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 24, 2021, 07:11:22 PM
Two jags done

He's 83: he'd have been done ages ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 24, 2021, 07:28:48 PM
He's 83: he'd have been done ages ago.
This joke is brought to you by the jags side of the jags/jabs divide
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on June 26, 2021, 07:52:39 PM
Hand-on-cock has resigned.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 26, 2021, 07:57:53 PM
Hand-on-cock has resigned.
Surely that's Hand-on-Arse?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 30, 2021, 02:23:44 PM
I'm shocked, shocked I tell you.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-57667163?at_custom3=BBC+News&at_medium=custom7&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_campaign=64&at_custom4=9383441A-D996-11EB-97EB-BC10BECD475E&at_custom2=facebook_page
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on June 30, 2021, 02:35:13 PM
That doesn't surprise me in the slightest. I was only saying to my husband, when watching the lunchtime time news dominated by England's win yesterday, the Covid rate in England would go through the roof with the all the hugging and kissing that was going on. ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on June 30, 2021, 03:30:17 PM
Meanwhile, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has denied the tie between England and Scotland.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 30, 2021, 04:33:45 PM
Meanwhile, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has denied the tie between England and Scotland.

Could you elaborate on that? Not sure what you mean.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on June 30, 2021, 04:46:38 PM
Meanwhile, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has denied the tie between England and Scotland.

I'd agree with her - we're miles apart.

(I suspect you need to explain what you are alluding to).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on June 30, 2021, 05:50:07 PM
Could you elaborate on that? Not sure what you mean.

I googled it and came up with this story in the Express.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1453508/nicola-sturgeon-news-uk-rejected-england-urged-sever-ties-scotland-indyref2-spt

I'm still none the wiser.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 30, 2021, 06:17:56 PM
I googled it and came up with this story in the Express.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1453508/nicola-sturgeon-news-uk-rejected-england-urged-sever-ties-scotland-indyref2-spt

I'm still none the wiser.
What an incredibly badly written article!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 30, 2021, 06:22:16 PM
What an incredibly badly written article!

Glad it wasn't just me. I re-read it again and it still didn't seem coherent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on June 30, 2021, 07:47:04 PM
Could you elaborate on that? Not sure what you mean.
The Sun's front page headline on 19 June was something like, "INSEPERABLE - Sturgeon denies England and Scotland tied"
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 30, 2021, 08:17:38 PM
Obviously the racist lying incompetent thug that is PM when asked about this at PMQs dismissed this as compared to Hancock, and Cumming, and Jenrick as just Westminster bubble stuff but that's because he's a lying raxist incompetent thug.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-57503382?at_custom4=twitter&at_medium=custom7&at_custom2=twitter&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_custom3=%40BBCPolitics&at_campaign=64
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 02, 2021, 11:35:54 AM
Apparently some kids have been using lemon juice to fake positive Covid tests so they and their classmates can be sent home from school. I must admit if there had been a pandemic when I was a kid, and similar circumstances to what we have at present, I would have been up for that, disliking school as I did. NAUGHTY ME! :-[
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 02, 2021, 11:44:14 AM
Apparently some kids have been using lemon juice to fake positive Covid tests so they and their classmates can be sent home from school. I must admit if there had been a pandemic when I was a kid, and similar circumstances to what we have at present, I would have been up for that, disliking school as I did. NAUGHTY ME! :-[
It's like something out of the Beano! Have to admire.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on July 02, 2021, 08:58:16 PM
Apparently some kids have been using lemon juice to fake positive Covid tests so they and their classmates can be sent home from school. I must admit if there had been a pandemic when I was a kid, and similar circumstances to what we have at present, I would have been up for that, disliking school as I did. NAUGHTY ME! :-[

It shows remarkable ingenuity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on July 03, 2021, 07:39:24 PM
I'm trying to work out how lemon juice could be used to fake a positive test. Can it also be used to fake a vaccination certificate?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 04, 2021, 11:15:51 AM
I'm trying to work out how lemon juice could be used to fake a positive test. Can it also be used to fake a vaccination certificate?

Ehhhhhhhhhhh, what on earth has faking a positive Covid test have to do with faking a vaccination certificate?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 08, 2021, 07:26:17 PM

Olympics held in a state of emergency

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-57760883
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 08, 2021, 07:47:35 PM
This threads has been surprisingly quiet. I would have thought more would have been said about PM Johnson's "one bound and we're free" 19th July effort.

Feeling perky about no one having to wear masks anymore?

Happy that dear Mr Javid is making a bonfire of all the gains we've made?

My advice: if you are thinking of going shopping, the first thing I would buy is some FFP3 masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 08, 2021, 07:49:26 PM
This threads has been surprisingly quiet. I would have thought more would have been said about PM Johnson's "one bound and we're free" 19th July effort.

Feeling perky about no one having to wear masks anymore?

Happy that dear Mr Javid is making a bonfire of all the gains we've made?

My advice: if you are thinking of going shopping, the first thing I would buy is some FFP3 masks.
But but Freeeeeeeeedoooooooommmmmm
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 09, 2021, 11:17:54 AM
I think it is crazy to end restrictions so soon as the number of people with the virus here in the UK has risen dramatically. :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on July 09, 2021, 11:30:55 AM
I think it is crazy to end restrictions so soon as the number of people with the virus here in the UK has risen dramatically. :o
But what date would you choose and why?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 09, 2021, 11:51:13 AM
Restrictions like wearing face masks and social distancing should not be lifted until the virus is no longer a danger, however long that takes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on July 09, 2021, 11:52:26 AM
But what date would you choose and why?
I though the point was that we should make our decisions based on data rather than dates.

So we should be setting a threshold based on, numbers of cases (plus hospitalisations and deaths) and their direction of travel (downwards rather than upwards) and the proportion of people who are fully vaccinated.

The most recent data show that is isn't just cases that are rising strongly, but also hospitalisations and deaths, with the latter two showing approx 50% increase week on week at the moment. And while their numbers are currently relatively low, the notion of exponential growth means that they attain pretty high levels within a few weeks unless cases plateaux and start to fall. And there doesn't seem to be much evidence for this and the proposed opening up in a couple of weeks will turbo charge cases with hospital admissions following soon after as night follows day.

So lets follow the data, not set arbitrary dates.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 09, 2021, 12:28:43 PM
But what date would you choose and why?
it's not a question of the date. It's a question of what is reasonable on the date.

I am all in favour of opening up as much as we can, but to get rid of the mandate for mask wearing is irresponsible in the extreme.

Mask wearing is such an easy win in terms of controlling the spread of the virus. It allows for most things to be done as normal and yet it significantly reduces infection if all adhere to that one restriction. What so many people appear to miss is the virus's capability to mutate and that in order to mutate it is much easier if there is a lot of virus in circulation which is the case now, and will be even more so when we open with no safeguards in place.

Johnson has made it sound like an either/or decision. That is nonsense. We can open up with a few safeguards in place.

All the government are doing at the moment is taking a huge gamble, a gamble that risks making England a world beater in variant creation and also risks significant numbers of people being affected by long covid.

This government is appalling.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on July 09, 2021, 01:08:04 PM
it's not a question of the date. It's a question of what is reasonable on the date.

I am all in favour of opening up as much as we can, but to get rid of the mandate for mask wearing is irresponsible in the extreme.

Mask wearing is such an easy win in terms of controlling the spread of the virus. It allows for most things to be done as normal and yet it significantly reduces infection if all adhere to that one restriction. What so many people appear to miss is the virus's capability to mutate and that in order to mutate it is much easier if there is a lot of virus in circulation which is the case now, and will be even more so when we open with no safeguards in place.

Johnson has made it sound like an either/or decision. That is nonsense. We can open up with a few safeguards in place.

All the government are doing at the moment is taking a huge gamble, a gamble that risks making England a world beater in variant creation and also risks significant numbers of people being affected by long covid.

This government is appalling.
Re mutation: I've read stuff to the effect of if there is a lot of virus it may mutate, yes, but the mutations won't be selected for, since the original strain is surviving. But if that strain is under pressure and is being neutralised by vaccine-induced antibodies, and mutated strains are more resistant to those antibodies, a new variant will survive and replicate until it becomes the dominant one. (It will be 'selected for').
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on July 09, 2021, 01:35:33 PM
Re mutation: I've read stuff to the effect of if there is a lot of virus it may mutate, yes, but the mutations won't be selected for, since the original strain is surviving. But if that strain is under pressure and is being neutralised by vaccine-induced antibodies, and mutated strains are more resistant to those antibodies, a new variant will survive and replicate until it becomes the dominant one. (It will be 'selected for').
It is basic evolutionary theory.

Mutations are random events which occur when the virus is being replicated in a host human - the more the level of the virus in the population the more mutation events will occur.

The mutations may, or may not, change the characteristic of the virus - specifically making it more or less transmissible than the virus before the mutation or more or less dangerous in terms of severity of disease than the virus before the mutation.

If the mutation is more transmissible it will be more likely to infect people and more likely to infect more people and therefore there will be greater overall replication of the new mutant and it will replicant and survive better and therefore become dominant. It its transmissibility is less than the pre-mutation variant it will do the reverse and will likely disappear fairly rapidly. If there is no difference in transmissibility than the original virus it will likely just transmit itself alongside the original.

The issue of severity of disease is different as it doesn't impact on replication unless it it so severe that it kills the host before replicating or is retained for much longer in the body before the immune response deals with it.

So in terms of a pandemic your worst nightmare is the combination of a virus mutation that is more transmissible and causes more severe disease. But your friend (up to a point) it a virus that is more transmissible because causes less serious disease, allowing transmission (and population level immunity to develop) while only causing very mild illness.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on July 09, 2021, 02:30:08 PM
It is basic evolutionary theory.

Mutations are random events which occur when the virus is being replicated in a host human - the more the level of the virus in the population the more mutation events will occur.

The mutations may, or may not, change the characteristic of the virus - specifically making it more or less transmissible than the virus before the mutation or more or less dangerous in terms of severity of disease than the virus before the mutation.

If the mutation is more transmissible it will be more likely to infect people and more likely to infect more people and therefore there will be greater overall replication of the new mutant and it will replicant and survive better and therefore become dominant. It its transmissibility is less than the pre-mutation variant it will do the reverse and will likely disappear fairly rapidly. If there is no difference in transmissibility than the original virus it will likely just transmit itself alongside the original.

The issue of severity of disease is different as it doesn't impact on replication unless it it so severe that it kills the host before replicating or is retained for much longer in the body before the immune response deals with it.

So in terms of a pandemic your worst nightmare is the combination of a virus mutation that is more transmissible and causes more severe disease. But your friend (up to a point) it a virus that is more transmissible because causes less serious disease, allowing transmission (and population level immunity to develop) while only causing very mild illness.
Interesting. So iirc the Delta variant is more transmissible, but is its apparent lower morbidity and mortality more due to the host population being younger people and those with 'suboptimal' antibodies from recent vaccination or previous infection or generally good innate immunity because they are younger?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on July 09, 2021, 03:47:24 PM
Interesting. So iirc the Delta variant is more transmissible, but is its apparent lower morbidity and mortality more due to the host population being younger and those with 'suboptimal' antibodies from recent vaccination or previous infection or generally good innate immunity because they are younger?
The delta variant is more transmissible.

Whether is causes more serious disease isn't so clear - I don't think your assertion is valid as it is based on a different population demographic for people most likely to be infected now (younger) as most older people have been vaccinated.

The assessment of seriousness is how likely it is to cause serious disease compared to the earlier variant on the basis that the population at risk is the same.

You can then factor in any differences in the population likely to become infected, but that isn't a feature of the virus itself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on July 09, 2021, 03:57:05 PM
it's not a question of the date. It's a question of what is reasonable on the date.

I am all in favour of opening up as much as we can, but to get rid of the mandate for mask wearing is irresponsible in the extreme.

Mask wearing is such an easy win in terms of controlling the spread of the virus. It allows for most things to be done as normal and yet it significantly reduces infection if all adhere to that one restriction. What so many people appear to miss is the virus's capability to mutate and that in order to mutate it is much easier if there is a lot of virus in circulation which is the case now, and will be even more so when we open with no safeguards in place.

Johnson has made it sound like an either/or decision. That is nonsense. We can open up with a few safeguards in place.

All the government are doing at the moment is taking a huge gamble, a gamble that risks making England a world beater in variant creation and also risks significant numbers of people being affected by long covid.

This government is appalling.
Okay - |I agree about wearing of masks and sensible social distancing, but there are so many other things that can't be held back for ever. The economy, mental health, llearning to live with the new normal whatever that turns out to be. I don't pretend to know anywhere near enough to offer any better solutions though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on July 09, 2021, 06:35:00 PM
The delta variant is more transmissible.

Whether is causes more serious disease isn't so clear - I don't think your assertion is valid as it is based on a different population demographic for people most likely to be infected now (younger) as most older people have been vaccinated.

The assessment of seriousness is how likely it is to cause serious disease compared to the earlier variant on the basis that the population at risk is the same.

You can then factor in any differences in the population likely to become infected, but that isn't a feature of the virus itself.
I guess it would be hard to know how serious disease from the Delta is compared with the alpha variant, since it is affecting a younger host age. What I was focussing on in my earlier post was whether human infection prevention measures such as lockdown and vaccination were responsible for mutated strains being selected for. The measures make it hard for the original strain to survive, and thus the variants are more likely to become dominant.
This is the opposite of the refrain that the more people are vaccinated, the less chance the virus has to spread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on July 09, 2021, 06:41:07 PM
I guess it would be hard to know how serious disease from the Delta is compared with the alpha variant, since it is affecting a younger host age.
Not really, you just look at the likelihood of developing serious illness with age etc matched cohorts infected with the alpha and delta variants. It may take a little more time to get the data as there will be less people developing serious illness if you are looking at a younger cohort of people.

What I was focussing on in my earlier post was whether human infection prevention measures such as lockdown and vaccination were responsible for mutated strains being selected for. Since they make it hard for the original strain to survive, and thus are more likely to become dominant.
No - the lockdown etc will only affect the levels of transmission and therefore number of mutations some of which may be variants of concern.

I think you may be confusing the infection with a virus with concerns about antibiotic use driving antibiotic resistant strains, which is a real concern.

This is the opposite of the refrain that the more people are vaccinated, the less chance the virus has to spread.
But not born out by the science.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 12, 2021, 07:22:42 PM

Hmmm.....

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/mask-wearing-optional-for-mps-but-compulsory-for-parliament-staff_uk_60ec5e9fe4b0a771e7fbfe12?ure
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 12, 2021, 10:01:47 PM
So Macron hinting at a further lockdown but Johnson still sort of full steam ahead for freedom day despite hospital numbers up 48% in a week. The lying incompetent racist thug PM....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 13, 2021, 08:29:13 PM
View from New Zealand on our policy.



https://www.newsroom.co.nz/uks-awful-experiment-will-threaten-nz
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 13, 2021, 08:36:22 PM
He is a murderous, ignorant, stupid idiot. Driven by greed. We all knew some of this and yet sufficient of us voted for him to make this scenario possible.

Those that did vote for him should hang their heads in absolute shame.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 14, 2021, 11:15:43 AM
I hope the Welsh Government will be much more circumspect about lifting the lockdown restrictions. It is no good relying on the public to be sensible as that idiot, Boris, is hoping they will be. ::) Facemasks and social distancing should remain mandatory whilst the latest spike in the virus is going ever upwards.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on July 14, 2021, 12:15:06 PM
View from New Zealand on our policy.



https://www.newsroom.co.nz/uks-awful-experiment-will-threaten-nz
The virus would still eventually evade the vaccine because the vaccine is not 100% effective. And it would be a more virulent strain that evaded it. If we relax restrictions the current strain will continue to be the dominant one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 14, 2021, 12:46:16 PM
Looking at the current daily figures, I am sorry to say, I think it would be reckless to lift the current restrictions on July 19th. In fact, it looks like a further lock down will be needed.

I'm really looking forward to my festivals in August, but if the figures carry on as they are, it would be insane to allow them to go ahead.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 14, 2021, 12:49:07 PM
The virus would still eventually evade the vaccine because the vaccine is not 100% effective. And it would be a more virulent strain that evaded it. If we relax restrictions the current strain will continue to be the dominant one.

Unfortunately, that's not true. The more people who get the virus, the more opportunity there is for a strain to develop that has immunity to our vaccines. If it does develop, it will become the dominant strain fairly quickly. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on July 14, 2021, 01:23:31 PM
The virus would still eventually evade the vaccine because the vaccine is not 100% effective. And it would be a more virulent strain that evaded it. If we relax restrictions the current strain will continue to be the dominant one.
That isn't true at all - in fact the reverse is true.

Mutations are random events and the number of mutations is directly linked to the number of replication events of the virus. This in turn links to the number of infections. So if you relax restrictions there will be more infections and therefore more mutations and therefore a greater likelihood that one of those mutations evades the vaccine.

The best way to avoid dangerous variants arising is to keep infections as low as possible (hence reducing the number of replication events) through both vaccines and restrictions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 14, 2021, 06:13:27 PM
42k new cases today



https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 14, 2021, 06:23:00 PM
42k new cases today



https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

That's actually good news. The rate of increase is only 27% compared to last week. The rate of increase in cases is not rising exponentially anymore.

It's hospital admissions that is the real bad news at the moment: 53% more compared to last week. It won't take too many weeks of rising at 50% to overwhelm the NHS.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 14, 2021, 06:32:38 PM
That's actually good news. The rate of increase is only 27% compared to last week. The rate of increase in cases is not rising exponentially anymore.

It's hospital admissions that is the real bad news at the moment: 53% more compared to last week. It won't take too many weeks of rising at 50% to overwhelm the NHS.
Neither of then are figures that you would use to justify 'Freedom Day'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 14, 2021, 06:41:44 PM
Neither of then are figures that you would use to justify 'Freedom Day'
Of course not. It's insane to continue with the removal of current measures.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on July 14, 2021, 07:10:58 PM
That's actually good news. The rate of increase is only 27% compared to last week. The rate of increase in cases is not rising exponentially anymore.
But surely the point about an exponential increase is that, in % terms, it remains the same over time.

So if you have a 25% increase per week and the starting point is 100, in one week you have 125, another week you have 156, the next week 195, then 244, 305 etc. So in the first week your absolute increase is only 25, by week 6 it is over 60.

There may be some evidence that the rate of increase is slowing, but i think you need to follow that over a longer period of time than just one week to see a real effect, as it can be particularly influenced by a single daily value that is anomalously high or low.

It's hospital admissions that is the real bad news at the moment: 53% more compared to last week. It won't take too many weeks of rising at 50% to overwhelm the NHS.
True
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on July 14, 2021, 08:59:41 PM
The situation in England is already looking shambolic as regards wearing masks on public transport with various 'mayors' (which we don't have here in Scotland) doing different things, and it seems they have varying local powers where some can require masks be worn and other just encourage the wearing of masks.

You'd have thought that the strategy of the UK government as regards changes in England would have anticipated this scenario: unless, of course, the strategy is to encourage chaos and, no doubt, then blame everyone else (which presumes there is a strategy). Alternatively it could be down to the incompetence of a bunch of  incompetents.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jul/14/passengers-face-patchwork-of-mask-rules-on-public-transport-after-19-july
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 14, 2021, 09:15:26 PM
The situation in England is already looking shambolic as regards wearing masks on public transport with various 'mayors' (which we don't have here in Scotland) doing different things, and it seems they have varying local powers where some can require masks be worn and other just encourage the wearing of masks.

You'd have thought that the strategy of the UK government as regards changes in England would have anticipated this scenario: unless, of course, the strategy is to encourage chaos and, no doubt, then blame everyone else (which presumes there is a strategy). Alternatively it could be down to the incompetence of a bunch of  incompetents.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jul/14/passengers-face-patchwork-of-mask-rules-on-public-transport-after-19-july
To be fair, while we aren't going for Freedom Day, we are in Scotland reducing restrictioms while hospital.cases rise. Overall I would give the Scottish govt 3 out of 10 handling this, as opposed to 2 for UK govt, if I ignore the corruption. Sturgeon has communicated better but the actual different decisions have been marginal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 15, 2021, 08:49:15 AM
But surely the point about an exponential increase is that, in % terms, it remains the same over time.

So if you have a 25% increase per week and the starting point is 100, in one week you have 125, another week you have 156, the next week 195, then 244, 305 etc. So in the first week your absolute increase is only 25, by week 6 it is over 60.

There may be some evidence that the rate of increase is slowing, but i think you need to follow that over a longer period of time than just one week to see a real effect, as it can be particularly influenced by a single daily value that is anomalously high or low.
True

Until recently, the % rate of increase was in the 50's. It came down first to the 30's and now it's below 30. It's not just one week. So I think the evidence is that the rate of increase of infections is slowing. It's the one piece of good news in an otherwise grim situation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on July 15, 2021, 09:34:58 AM
Until recently, the % rate of increase was in the 50's. It came down first to the 30's and now it's below 30. It's not just one week. So I think the evidence is that the rate of increase of infections is slowing. It's the one piece of good news in an otherwise grim situation.
The problem with 7 day rolling data is that is can be affected by a single anomalous day's data depending on whether that is in the 7-day figures or when it drops out. Have a look at the graph - scroll down to 'Cases - people testing positive'.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

My reading of this was that there was some evidence of a slowing - the early part of the 'red' line compared to the 'black' line, but that there is now a stronger increase (look at the trend within the red line). So your 'now below 30' is because the rolling 7 day average is comparing the red to the black. Once those first few days of 'red' drop out of the system and are part of the comparison I think we may see the rolling average percentage rising again.

I hope I'm wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 15, 2021, 10:35:17 AM
The problem with 7 day rolling data is that is can be affected by a single anomalous day's data depending on whether that is in the 7-day figures or when it drops out. Have a look at the graph - scroll down to 'Cases - people testing positive'.
The rate has been dropping for a while. I'm not just looking at this week's figures. Look at the shape of the black line

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

It's not an exponential curve.

Of course, I expect an increase following the last week of the Euros and, if July 19th goes ahead as planned, I expect the rate to go exponential again, at least for a while.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on July 15, 2021, 10:41:24 AM
The rate has been dropping for a while. I'm not just looking at this week's figures. Look at the shape of the black line

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

It's not an exponential curve.

Of course, I expect an increase following the last two weekends of the Euros and, if July 19th goes ahead as planned, I expect the rate to go exponential again, at least for a while.
Actually you can see the effect better here:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

Scroll down to 'Percentage change in recent 7-day case rates by specimen date' - you are right that the percentage changes have been dropping since 28th June, but the decline over recent days is flattening meaning that the most recent days are potentially showing an increase in % change - quite likely we will see the trend stop and then reverse, just as you see in the same graph around 14th June.

Again I hope I'm wrong but my understanding of the data is that we saw a slowing of the rate of increase over the past couple of weeks, but it is beginning to pick up again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 15, 2021, 02:05:15 PM
News reports suggest the covid rate is rising on a daily basis, it isn't good in our part of Wales. :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on July 15, 2021, 02:36:48 PM
News reports suggest the covid rate is rising on a daily basis, it isn't good in our part of Wales. :o
Yes it is rising - the discussion between Jeremy and me is whether there is evidence that the rate at which it is rising is beginning to slow, suggesting we might be coming close to the peak.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 15, 2021, 05:21:26 PM
And 48,553 new cases today


https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 16, 2021, 11:32:49 AM
With the lifting of restrictions in England next week the NHS will soon be overwhelmed again. :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on July 16, 2021, 11:40:54 AM
With the lifting of restrictions in England next week the NHS will soon be overwhelmed again. :o
Quite possibly.

And the notion that restrictions are being lifted is crazy. Perhaps they are being in theory but in reality I a concerned that my life and my family's is going to be constrained more than at any time since general lockdown, because of the self-isolation issue.

So my daughter is currently self isolating since one of her friends tested positive at school. Most of the people I know with school age kids have had this at least once. My son also had to self isolate a couple of weeks ago, without having any real knowledge of who he had come into contact.

Now we are supposed to be going on holiday as a family in mid August, but I am really, really worried that we won't be able to do as one (or more) of the five of us will be self isolating (three of us are fully jabbed and one has had a single jab). So there is a real possibility that we will feel the need to go into effective self isolation for a couple of weeks before we go to reduce that risk.

So much for 'Freedom Day' :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 16, 2021, 11:51:02 AM
Our grandchildren have had to self isolate a number of times when classmates have tested positive for the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on July 16, 2021, 12:54:49 PM
Legal restrictions are being lifted, but many shop chains are choosing to continue insisting on masks and social distancing, and many people, including me, will continue to observe them anyway, so I think Roses' apocalyptic vision is a little exaggerated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on July 16, 2021, 12:59:10 PM
Legal restrictions are being lifted ...
But they aren't all being lifted. In terms of 'freedom' the most significant not being lifted is the legal requirement to self isolate. And with the case numbers sky rocketing, and likely to continue to do so there will be vast numbers in that position. That will affect most of us, I suspect, not just in terms of actually not being able to do anything outside your own home (that's about the most restricted you can be) but also huge impacts on businesses as key staff vanish for 10 days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 16, 2021, 01:04:39 PM
But they aren't all being lifted. In terms of 'freedom' the most significant not being lifted is the legal requirement to self isolate. And with the case numbers sky rocketing, and likely to continue to do so there will be vast numbers in that position. That will affect most of us, I suspect, not just in terms of actually not being able to do anything outside your own home (that's about the most restricted you can be) but also huge impacts on businesses as key staff vanish for 10 days.
And many of those isolating will be in the NHS
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 16, 2021, 02:04:33 PM
Legal restrictions are being lifted, but many shop chains are choosing to continue insisting on masks and social distancing, and many people, including me, will continue to observe them anyway, so I think Roses' apocalyptic vision is a little exaggerated.

Not according to medics interviewed on the news channels. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on July 16, 2021, 02:36:00 PM
From what I've read today there is more than one opinion.
It's not a bad thing for any of them to paint a bad possible scenario right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on July 16, 2021, 03:30:58 PM
And many of those isolating will be in the NHS
A fairly sizeable number I suspect.

At the moment the virus is running rampant through schools. If your child tests positive you will need to self isolate, including those working in the NHS. If your child has to self isolate because they've been in contact with someone who tests positive you don't need to self isolate in theory. But if your child is too young to be left on their own one or other parent will have to tay at home unless they can put in place other arrangements.

The whole of my daughter's year (210 kids) are now self isolating.

Now we are just about at the end of term so hopefully the period of mass self isolation of hundreds of kids may be coming to an end, but it has caused chaos over the last few weeks for working families with school aged kids.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on July 16, 2021, 03:37:47 PM
Unfortunately, that's not true. The more people who get the virus, the more opportunity there is for a strain to develop that has immunity to our vaccines. If it does develop, it will become the dominant strain fairly quickly.
Yes - senior moment from me there.
It seems that achieving herd immunity has been traded for reduced morbidity  and mortality, at least in the short term.
Had we only shielded the vulnerable instead of total lockdown, and not used the current type of vaccines with a pandemic already underway, it's possible we could have achieved herd immunity through natural infection of the fitter individuals. Current vaccines induce an antibody response, but while this is happening the person can still be infected. Following natural infection you get an innate immune response which prevents reinfection while you're making antibodies. This prevents selection of escape variants and leads to herd immunity.
https://youtu.be/cjMZvpmuaKY
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 16, 2021, 03:58:48 PM
From what I've read today there is more than one opinion.
It's not a bad thing for any of them to paint a bad possible scenario right now.

Like this for exampke


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 16, 2021, 04:04:57 PM
51, 870 new cases


https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on July 16, 2021, 04:12:59 PM
51, 870 new cases


https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
After a brief flattening of the curve the case numbers are rising very steeply again.

Does anyone seriously think that with the case numbers and trend as they are and hospitalisations beginning to rise steeply too that Monday is the right time to get rid of most restrictions? Bonkers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 16, 2021, 04:13:56 PM
Not according to medics interviewed on the news channels.
Or indeed here


https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/greater-manchester-starts-opening-extra-21050865
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on July 16, 2021, 04:38:26 PM
Yes - senior moment from me there.
It seems that achieving herd immunity has been traded for reduced morbidity  and mortality, at least in the short term.
Had we only shielded the vulnerable instead of total lockdown, and not used the current type of vaccines with a pandemic already underway, it's possible we could have achieved herd immunity through natural infection of the fitter individuals. Current vaccines induce an antibody response, but while this is happening the person can still be infected. Following natural infection you get an innate immune response which prevents reinfection while you're making antibodies. This prevents selection of escape variants and leads to herd immunity.
https://youtu.be/cjMZvpmuaKY
You can't shield the vulnerable in mass settings the care home disaster taught us that. Nor does it work where the non vulnerable share housing with the vulnerable.

Human Herd immunity as far as I know was never talked about and is a Tory construct guaranteed to end in Genocide. Johnson is a bull in a china shop he fell on a kid at a photo opportunity and is a machine in terms of getting his way. He was going to have Herd immunity. Laugh at him lose an election, get one over him over bending the knee? Have some covid and see how you get on with that you peasants. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 16, 2021, 05:50:31 PM
Yes it is rising - the discussion between Jeremy and me is whether there is evidence that the rate at which it is rising is beginning to slow, suggesting we might be coming close to the peak.
Unfortunately, it went up again yesterday and again today.

There is now officially no good news.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on July 16, 2021, 06:17:59 PM
Unfortunately, it went up again yesterday and again today.

There is now officially no good news.
Indeed - there was a brief flattening (for whatever reason) but we seem back to the steep trajectory.

Let's hope there is an element of Euros and schools in the numbers and now that the former is over and schools will already have broken up or will do early next week that we will see a slowing of the rate of increase from next week onwards.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 17, 2021, 11:34:28 AM
Completely mixed messages



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57869880
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 17, 2021, 11:46:56 AM
The Government seems to change its mind from one day to the next, it is no wonder people are getting mixed messages. :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 17, 2021, 01:52:50 PM

It's all going so well



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-birmingham-queen-elizabeth-hospital-operations-b1884914.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 17, 2021, 01:55:09 PM
Sajid Javid tests positive



https://news.sky.com/story/health-secretary-sajid-javid-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-and-has-mild-symptoms-12357736
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 17, 2021, 03:16:02 PM
I have just seen that, I wonder if he will have a change of heart about getting rid of lockdown?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on July 17, 2021, 03:20:09 PM
I have just seen that, I wonder if he will have a change of heart about getting rid of lockdown?
I doubt it. He's a reasonably intelligent bloke, and therefore will realise that you shouldn't generalise from a single instance.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 17, 2021, 04:15:27 PM
If he is a reasonably intelligent bloke he would realise getting rid of lockdown is a HUGE mistake.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on July 17, 2021, 04:46:45 PM
If he is a reasonably intelligent bloke he would realise getting rid of lockdown is a HUGE mistake.
He has all the figures and expert advice, and you don't. Furthermore, it is possible to be intelligent and to disagree with you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 17, 2021, 04:51:10 PM
The cases of Covid are now as bad as they were in January and hospital admissions are rising too, so it seems stupid to ease lockdown at present.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 17, 2021, 05:34:01 PM
He has all the figures and expert advice, and you don't. Furthermore, it is possible to be intelligent and to disagree with you.


Have you not been following The Lancet on this?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/16/englands-lifting-of-covid-lockdowns-a-danger-to-whole-world-experts.html

On any level what the government is doing is ill advised and goes against established pandemic management.

He is wrong. Just because Roses posted and you felt knee jerking as usual doesn't change the fact that he and the government are conducting a massive experiment on the people of the UK (I say UK because what happens in England will inevitably spill over to the other countries) .

This government is deliberately putting more of the population in harm's way. It is morally wrong and it is unforgivable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 17, 2021, 09:16:38 PM
He has all the figures and expert advice, and you don't. Furthermore, it is possible to be intelligent and to disagree with you.
Is it difficult to speak when you have your tongue that far up the Tory govts arse?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on July 18, 2021, 06:18:25 AM


In the US, there seems to be a correlation between people who don't want to get vaccinated and people who believe Joe Biden won by fraud.  How about that!  :D   

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/17/politics/conspiracy-theories-election-vaccines-analysis/index.html

Frankly, I don't see the connection but it is interesting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 18, 2021, 08:44:26 AM

In the US, there seems to be a correlation between people who don't want to get vaccinated and people who believe Joe Biden won by fraud.  How about that!  :D   

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/17/politics/conspiracy-theories-election-vaccines-analysis/index.html

Frankly, I don't see the connection but it is interesting.

Trump voters is the connection. They have always been the ones who believe lies about vaccination.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 18, 2021, 11:40:17 AM

And UK govt continues with its mixed messaging, with Johnson and Sunak going to break the rules until they were callled out on it.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57879730
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 18, 2021, 12:23:12 PM
I was absolutely disgusted when I heard that they weren't intending to self isolate as the rest of us are supposed to do! They are probably only self isolating now because they are more concerned about losing their jobs than the safety of the public. >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on July 18, 2021, 04:36:14 PM
Obviously they have their ears to the ground and can tell that the wildebeest are on the move ... from more than 10 paces away!

I'm wondering when they will cancel Christmas this year - will they wait until Christmas eve or just the two days before again?
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 19, 2021, 08:31:00 AM
There is no small sense of irony and also symbolism that on the very day that has been dubbed "Freedom Day" our PM and Chancellor are having to self isolate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on July 19, 2021, 09:04:25 AM
The whole 'Freedom Day' in England seems chaotic - from what I've been reading Nadhim Zahawi, who is doing the media rounds this morning, is really playing up that people should wear facemasks in shops, public transport and anywhere they are requested to - which makes me wonder why they didn't just retain the 'wear facemasks' requirement.

The idea that all this becomes a matter of personal responsibility, especially given the recent increase in cases, sound a lot like the UK government trying to shift the blame so that if things get worse it becomes the fault of Joe Public.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on July 19, 2021, 09:52:49 AM
The whole 'Freedom Day' in England seems chaotic - from what I've been reading Nadhim Zahawi, who is doing the media rounds this morning, is really playing up that people should wear facemasks in shops, public transport and anywhere they are requested to - which makes me wonder why they didn't just retain the 'wear facemasks' requirement.

The idea that all this becomes a matter of personal responsibility, especially given the recent increase in cases, sound a lot like the UK government trying to shift the blame so that if things get worse it becomes the fault of Joe Public.
I did hope, as I said on here earlier, that the great majority of people would be responsible, and continue to wear masks in enclosed public places, and take other precautions, but if my local Facebook group is anything to go by, I was being over-optimistic. There are dozens of posts, from various members, mostly semi-literate, parroting the new line from the anti-vaccinators and Covid-deniers that it's a matter of personal choice: wearing one is fine, and not wearing one is also fine. They are unable or (more likely) unwilling to understand that it's a matter of protecting others as well as yourself. Maybe Rosie is right after all (he muttered through clenched teeth) - maybe it should be a legal requirement for a while longer. Society needs protecting from these selfish morons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on July 19, 2021, 10:11:21 AM
I did hope, as I said on here earlier, that the great majority of people would be responsible, and continue to wear masks in enclosed public places, and take other precautions, but if my local Facebook group is anything to go by, I was being over-optimistic. There are dozens of posts, from various members, mostly semi-literate, parroting the new line from the anti-vaccinators and Covid-deniers that it's a matter of personal choice: wearing one is fine, and not wearing one is also fine. They are unable or (more likely) unwilling to understand that it's a matter of protecting others as well as yourself. Maybe Rosie is right after all (he muttered through clenched teeth) - maybe it should be a legal requirement for a while longer. Society needs protecting from these selfish morons.

Face coverings remain mandatory here in Scotland even though other restrictions have eased so, presumably, that could have been the case in England too.

It seems that there is an element of the Tory party that is all for "Freedom Day", so maybe it is Tory party politics that is driving the situation in England, but not so much here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 19, 2021, 10:49:50 AM
Face coverings remain mandatory here in Scotland even though other restrictions have eased so, presumably, that could have been the case in England too.

It seems that there is an element of the Tory party that is all for "Freedom Day", so maybe it is Tory party politics that is driving the situation in England, but not so much here.
Though the move for some areas in Scotland from level 2 to level '0' seems just as driven by politics as in England - even though our cases in part because of the earlier school holidays have just begun to fall again, though are still overall slightly hiigher than England. I think Sturgeon has seemed less driven by politics either by shutting down a bit earlier, or opening up a bit later. The overall numbers don't really indicate a significant difference.

I also think that having a level 0, which with some tweaks last week, is now a sort of level 0.25, is a bad piece of messaging given it's not no restrictions and yet reads that way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 19, 2021, 11:32:52 AM
When I went to the supermarket this morning the checkout operator was most concerned that people would remove their masks in the store when lockdown is lifted in Wales next month. I hope they won't, I will be wearing mine and socially distancing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 19, 2021, 12:22:10 PM
When I went to the supermarket this morning the checkout operator was most concerned that people would remove their masks in the store when lockdown is lifted in Wales next month. I hope they won't, I will be wearing mine and socially distancing.

Just been into three shops at lunchtime today: Waitrose, Boots, Wilkinsons. Waitrose had a sign outside saying "please continue to wear masks". Neither of the other two did, but in all three I only saw two people not wearing masks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 19, 2021, 05:56:49 PM
60% of those being admitted to hospital with Covid double jagged
 


https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-60-of-people-being-admitted-to-hospital-with-coronavirus-have-been-double-jabbed-says-vallance-12359317


ETA: He's now corrected this to 60% are unvaccinated
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 19, 2021, 07:40:42 PM
But, of course




https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/lateral-flow-test-run-out-b1886589.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on July 20, 2021, 06:32:41 AM
But, of course




https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/lateral-flow-test-run-out-b1886589.html
If I wanted to test myself, how would I get or find one?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 20, 2021, 09:04:13 AM
If I wanted to test myself, how would I get or find one?


https://www.gov.uk/order-coronavirus-rapid-lateral-flow-tests?fbclid=IwAR2HeBvMziX25K0aha8ENJ5t7jC6C03lTw30bDW-IM04B_cuR3nHeZ2xFb0
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 20, 2021, 09:55:24 AM
Have to say gigen the number of people I know in India who have died, this feels correct.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-57888460
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on July 20, 2021, 09:57:15 AM
But, of course

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/lateral-flow-test-run-out-b1886589.html

hmm.. I ordered one yesterday afternoon ... to be delivered this afternoon according to Royal Mail text msg.

I expect that as you can't now rely on people social distancing or wearing masks people will want to test before meeting relatives or friends etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on July 20, 2021, 10:33:54 AM
hmm.. I ordered one yesterday afternoon ... to be delivered this afternoon according to Royal Mail text msg.

I expect that as you can't now rely on people social distancing or wearing masks people will want to test before meeting relatives or friends etc.
For various reasons, not least that we have school aged kids, lateral flow testing has become part of our routine. It isn't hard and doesn't take long and it is certainly useful before going to meet people you may be concerned about in tests of contracting the virus.

However the tests aren't as reliable as the PCR tests so the key is to test regularly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on July 20, 2021, 11:28:43 AM
It is basic evolutionary theory.

Mutations are random events which occur when the virus is being replicated in a host human - the more the level of the virus in the population the more mutation events will occur.

The mutations may, or may not, change the characteristic of the virus - specifically making it more or less transmissible than the virus before the mutation or more or less dangerous in terms of severity of disease than the virus before the mutation.

If the mutation is more transmissible it will be more likely to infect people and more likely to infect more people and therefore there will be greater overall replication of the new mutant and it will replicant and survive better and therefore become dominant. It its transmissibility is less than the pre-mutation variant it will do the reverse and will likely disappear fairly rapidly. If there is no difference in transmissibility than the original virus it will likely just transmit itself alongside the original.

The issue of severity of disease is different as it doesn't impact on replication unless it it so severe that it kills the host before replicating or is retained for much longer in the body before the immune response deals with it.

So in terms of a pandemic your worst nightmare is the combination of a virus mutation that is more transmissible and causes more severe disease. But your friend (up to a point) it a virus that is more transmissible because causes less serious disease, allowing transmission (and population level immunity to develop) while only causing very mild illness.

Mutations occur randomly, and the Covid variants appeared before the vaccination rollout. Suppose there is a population of frogs in a pond, and they like to jump about on lily pads. There are many lily pads, so the frogs don't need to be able to jump very far. If some of the lily pads are removed, the frogs with the stronger legs may out-compete the weaker ones and become the dominant frog. If we leave all the lily pads in, there will be no use for stronger legs and so the weaker ones will stay dominant.

Compare this with the delta variant of the virus, detected in India in late 2020. India's second wave, which is predominantly caused by delta, started in early March, and peaked in early May. The vaccine rollout began 15 January and by May, 130 million first jabs had been given. Perhaps delta was more able to be transmitted than its predecessor in the face of the immune pressure generated by the vaccines? There is a correlation between its rise and the vaccination rollout, similarly in the UK's third wave. Of course correlation does not have to mean causation.

If we had not had the vaccines, the characteristic in delta which gave it the ability to be transmitted more easily may not have been useful and hence delta would not have become dominant.

Quote from SAGE report 7/7/21: (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-93-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-7-july-2021/sage-93-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-7-july-2021)
There are four major risks associated with high numbers of infections. These are an increase in hospitalisations and deaths, more ‘Long-COVID’; workforce absences (including in the NHS); and the increased risk of new variants emerging. The combination of high prevalence and high levels of vaccination creates the conditions in which an immune escape variant is most likely to emerge. The likelihood of this happening is unknown, but such a variant would present a significant risk both in the UK and internationally.

So a question in relation to this quote is, are the vaccines the cause of the increased infections? Some will say it is the unvaccinated who are the cause, since they are the main group being infected. But these are people who were unlikely to be infected in the first place, being younger. So it seems the responsibility is with the vaccines, which have put a selective pressure on the more infectious delta variant causing it to become dominant and infect primarily unvaccinated people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 20, 2021, 06:05:43 PM
In the UK's case it's Johnson's fault for allowing large case numbers of Delta which are his direct responsibility as he elected not to stop flights from India at the same time as he did from Pakistan and Bangladesh, even though India had a higher rate of infections at the time. The lure of a trade deal with Modi being his prime objective. With high case numbers and high vaccination rates here, it puts pressure on the virus to change so that it can get round the vaccine, but it's the high number of cases that allows the virus to have the "space" to mutate in. 

If we'd had high vaccination rates but low case rates this issue would not have been such a worry. We were heading in that direction until Delta.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on July 21, 2021, 10:51:53 AM
In the UK's case it's Johnson's fault for allowing large case numbers of Delta which are his direct responsibility as he elected not to stop flights from India at the same time as he did from Pakistan and Bangladesh, even though India had a higher rate of infections at the time. The lure of a trade deal with Modi being his prime objective. With high case numbers and high vaccination rates here, it puts pressure on the virus to change so that it can get round the vaccine, but it's the high number of cases that allows the virus to have the "space" to mutate in. 

If we'd had high vaccination rates but low case rates this issue would not have been such a worry. We were heading in that direction until Delta.

Hi Trent,
OK, so the Flemish vet Vanden Bossche thinks that severe lockdown and vaccines that are 'leaky' select for the more infectious variants once the latter are present in the population. His main argument is that if you look at how vaccination is usually done, it's carried out at a time when the patient is not exposed, or is at very low risk of exposure, to the pathogen and can build up immunity without being infected. With this pandemic, we are vaccinating at the same time as infection is occurring. Because of this continued infection, the virus has as you say more chance of mutating, and when a mutant that can evade the vaccine appears it escapes into the population and becomes dominant. It's not a simple case of get the jab, wait a few months for full immunity then its safe to risk infection. The risk is already high.

In the UK's case, the evolutionary pattern seems to be: prolonged severe infection prevention measures put pressure on wild type, leading to the more infectious alpha mutation escaping infection prevention measures. This leads to a second wave of infection. Then vaccination starts, puts increasing immune pressure on Alpha, so infection with Alpha declines and second wave ends. Then Delta arrives (I didn't vote for Boris, you'll be pleased to know), is even more infectious and severe, so it infects the young and can evade vaccines, leading to a third wave. However, vaccination and younger hosts mean morbidity and mortality are lower (so far).

My thought is that if we could somehow have prevented the more infectious variants occurring we could have achieved herd immunity against the wild type. Vanden Bossche thinks that the immunity acquired through natural infection is 'richer' than that acquired through the current vaccines, and prevents re-infection not just by the wild-type but by more infectious variants, as it also involves natural antibodies that have a broad specificity.

But when the variants cause high levels of infection, this innate immunity cannot cope with the high viral load in the population. So having lengthy lockdown and vaccine-induced resistance that select for more infectious variants, ultimately leads to higher infection which in turn reduces our innate antibodies' ability to deal with the virus and achieve herd immunity.

So in hindsight, we have to go back to the initial infection prevention measures to work out how best to protect the vulnerable, prevent variants becoming dominant and allow enough healthy people to be infected and develop herd immunity.

The key is to lock down while working out how to treat the disease, then as soon as this is achieved allow young people to maintain their naturally high levels of innate immunity, letting them go back to school and young people to university/work.

Also when a person develops symptoms they should isolate, but not when asymptomatically infected, as the latter shed less virus than the former.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 21, 2021, 11:51:20 AM
Thanks for your lengthy and detailed reply.

I don't know enough about vaccines to be able to rebut any of the claims made by this vet, although I doubt the claim that "prolonged severe infection prevention measures put pressure on wild type".

I would say that the issues that is overlooked in your reply is Long Covid. Yes we have deaths under control (presently, let's not get over confident) but we are only just beginning to understand Long Covid. Figures suggest somewhere between 10 - 20% of cases will lead to LC. Remember LC is not dependent on severity of disease and yet can be very debilitating for months, and by the looks of it probably years (we don't know that for sure yet) but the organs affected e.g. Lungs, heart and brain are not things we should simply be ignoring in favour of allowing "enough healthy people to be infected and develop herd immunity."

That is an awful lot of people affected and also importantly an awful lot of hospital resources used up.

I don't know what the answer is. I know what the answer isn't, but we are doing that already.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Stranger on July 21, 2021, 12:22:25 PM
OK, so the Flemish vet Vanden Bossche....

Spouts pseudoscience nonsense.

The Doomsday Prophecy of Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche (https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-critical-thinking-pseudoscience/doomsday-prophecy-dr-geert-vanden-bossche)
Countering Geert Vanden Bossche’s dubious viral open letter warning against mass COVID-19 vaccination (https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/countering-geert-vanden-bossches-dubious-viral-open-letter-warning-against-mass-covid-19-vaccination/)
Mass Covid-19 vaccination will not lead to ‘out of control’ variants (https://factcheck.afp.com/mass-covid-19-vaccination-will-not-lead-out-control-variants)
Covid-19: Debunking the latest wave of medical misinformation (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/56680399) - scroll down to "Mutant claims go viral"
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on July 21, 2021, 12:25:13 PM
Hi Trent,
OK, so the Flemish vet Vanden Bossche thinks that severe lockdown and vaccines that are 'leaky' select for the more infectious variants once the latter are present in the population.
See the link for a devastating rebuttal of Vanden Bossche's claims. Note too that he isn't quite what he claims to be, so while he has a background in virology he hasn't been active for quarter of a century, with no credible peer reviewed publications since 1995.

https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-critical-thinking-pseudoscience/doomsday-prophecy-dr-geert-vanden-bossche

In every field there are charlatans and mavericks looking to peddle mistruths - and the field of virology and vaccines is no exception. Vanden Bossche is basically Andrew Wakefield but with a veterinary rather than a human medical background.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 21, 2021, 12:31:16 PM
Wakefield caused no end of problems by discouraging parents from letting their children have the MMR vaccine. People like him should be struct of the medical register. >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on July 21, 2021, 12:36:04 PM
Wakefield caused no end of problems by discouraging parents from letting their children have the MMR vaccine. People like him should be struct of the medical register. >:(
He was struck off the medical register, but not until he had created havoc with his claims based on fraudulent and unethical data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 21, 2021, 01:30:52 PM
He was struck off the medical register, but not until he had created havoc with his claims based on fraudulent and unethical data.

My eldest grandson (19) didn't have the MMR vaccine as a small child as our daughter took notice of the autism claims. He was diagnosed with grade 1 autism when he was two. Our other four grandchildren had the vaccine, they don't have the condition.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on July 22, 2021, 08:58:00 AM
See the link for a devastating rebuttal of Vanden Bossche's claims. Note too that he isn't quite what he claims to be, so while he has a background in virology he hasn't been active for quarter of a century, with no credible peer reviewed publications since 1995.

https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-critical-thinking-pseudoscience/doomsday-prophecy-dr-geert-vanden-bossche

In every field there are charlatans and mavericks looking to peddle mistruths - and the field of virology and vaccines is no exception. Vanden Bossche is basically Andrew Wakefield but with a veterinary rather than a human medical background.
He is at liberty to give medical advice, as long as he doesn't falsely represent himself as a qualified doctor of medicine or falsely claim to be licensed.

He doesn't come across to me as a charlatan. I think your and Stranger's links are worth a read, but so is his website. Up until now I've mainly just watched some of his YouTube videos, but have now started to read the FAQs section on his website. He's quite hard to understand, because of his 'suboptimal' English!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 22, 2021, 09:28:28 AM

Australia and New Zealand pull out of Rugby League World Cup because of Covid and concerns about how it is managed in UK - but FREEEEEEEEEEEEDDDDDDDDDDOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/57925720
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on July 22, 2021, 09:32:09 AM
He is at liberty to give medical advice,
...

He is, but that doesn't stop it being complete bollocks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on July 22, 2021, 10:26:06 AM
He doesn't come across to me as a charlatan.
Andrew Wakefield didn't come across as a charlatan - but he was.

I think your and Stranger's links are worth a read, but so is his website. Up until now I've mainly just watched some of his YouTube videos, but have now started to read the FAQs section on his website. He's quite hard to understand, because of his 'suboptimal' English!
I posted the link as it contains a strong rebuttal - but realistically a bunch of opinion pieces, whether from Vanden Bossche or anyone else aren't worth a bean unless they are based on sound scientific evidence. And that's the difference, Vanden Bossche's claims fly in the face of the science and the evidence.

This isn't a kind of 'one person's view', 'another person's view' - well we'll agree to differ and each person's opinion is equally valid. We are in the world of science and evidence - opinions not based on (or contradictory to) the scientific evidence aren't worth a bean. It doesn't matter how 'credible' someone comes across as, this isn't about personality but about evidence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 22, 2021, 02:01:04 PM

Bunch of pricks!


https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-mps-including-jacob-rees-24587208?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 24, 2021, 08:16:42 PM
Ffs!



https://twitter.com/marclister3k/status/1418907451190038533?s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on July 25, 2021, 03:19:06 PM
Andrew Wakefield didn't come across as a charlatan - but he was.

Didn't Andrew Wakefield have an investment of some kind that involved an alternative product or approach to  MMR, and his motivation was to discredit MMR to his own financial benefit?

If he had stuck to gastro-enterology he would still have a job in the NHS and not be stuck on some obscure planet in the Trump universe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 25, 2021, 03:55:12 PM
Incompetent and corrupt


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/638e017c-ecac-11eb-a9f0-ebe3f77d4a7e?shareToken=622b32a8dc9cf2fdda3ad72ffb2d48ce
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 26, 2021, 11:07:00 AM
Looks like the reported case rate has taken a nosedive over the last few days. Fingers crossed that this is a real effect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on July 26, 2021, 11:12:11 AM
Andrew Wakefield didn't come across as a charlatan - but he was.
I posted the link as it contains a strong rebuttal - but realistically a bunch of opinion pieces, whether from Vanden Bossche or anyone else aren't worth a bean unless they are based on sound scientific evidence. And that's the difference, Vanden Bossche's claims fly in the face of the science and the evidence.

This isn't a kind of 'one person's view', 'another person's view' - well we'll agree to differ and each person's opinion is equally valid. We are in the world of science and evidence - opinions not based on (or contradictory to) the scientific evidence aren't worth a bean. It doesn't matter how 'credible' someone comes across as, this isn't about personality but about evidence.
Time is needed to know whether he is correct or not, about a variant that can completely evade the vaccines. One thing that has been shown recently is that the current vaccines do not prevent infection (at least, not very effectively). This study (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/delta-variant-pfizer-covid-vaccine-39percent-effective-in-israel-prevents-severe-illness.html) suggests a figure of 39% effectiveness of Pfizer: "Israel says Pfizer Covid vaccine is just 39% effective as delta spreads, but still prevents severe illness" It seems this supports Vanden Bossche's ideas. Theoretically the vaccines would reduce infection indirectly through reducing the symptoms that aid transmission, such as coughing. But it seems the delta virus is still able to evade vaccinal antibodies, which was one of Vanden Bossche's predictions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on July 26, 2021, 11:35:01 AM
Another possible reason for rising cases in vaccinated people is that vaccinal antibodies may be waning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on July 26, 2021, 11:41:45 AM
Another possible reason for rising cases in vaccinated people is that vaccinal antibodies may be waning.
Fortunately it seems that case numbers are now starting to fall, but whether this will continue when the impact of 'Freedom day' changes kick in probably in a week's time is anyone's guess.

I think the issue of cases in double jabs people is that the vaccines are most effective at reducing serious disease and perhaps disease at all, so someone may have mild symptoms or even be symptomatic having been vaccinated while they would have had more severe disease had they not been vaccinated. This seems to be greater for the delta variant. Add to that the amount of testing going on and it is perhaps not surprising that we are seeing a fair amount of cases in vaccinated people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on July 26, 2021, 12:21:34 PM
There is talk of providing the vaccine in tablet or inhaler form, which might encourage people who are scared of needles to take it, as well as being much more easy to store.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on July 26, 2021, 08:11:28 PM
Fortunately it seems that case numbers are now starting to fall, but whether this will continue when the impact of 'Freedom day' changes kick in probably in a week's time is anyone's guess.

I think the issue of cases in double jabs people is that the vaccines are most effective at reducing serious disease and perhaps disease at all, so someone may have mild symptoms or even be symptomatic having been vaccinated while they would have had more severe disease had they not been vaccinated. This seems to be greater for the delta variant. Add to that the amount of testing going on and it is perhaps not surprising that we are seeing a fair amount of cases in vaccinated people.
It's a week since "freedom day" (I really hate that term). I think the effect should be kicking in about now given that the incubation period is about a week.

I'm more concerned that this sudden drop in cases might be an artefact of the testing process, or worse, a sign of deliberate manipulation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on July 26, 2021, 09:01:07 PM
It's a week since "freedom day" (I really hate that term). I think the effect should be kicking in about now given that the incubation period is about a week.
I think it has taken more than a week for effects to kick in, not least because we've only just been through the first weekend since the changes last Monday.

I think the next seven days will be key to seeing whether there has been any major effect.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 26, 2021, 10:51:08 PM
Quote
I'm more concerned that this sudden drop in cases might be an artefact of the testing process, or worse, a sign of deliberate manipulation.

Or maybe that people are deleting the app and not getting tested?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on July 26, 2021, 11:03:00 PM
Or maybe that people are deleting the app and not getting tested?
There has been a slight reduction in testing numbers, but nothing like the reduction in case numbers:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Compare left and right graphs.

Deleting the app isn't going to affect testing number - rather it will decrease the 'ping-demic'. It think the reduction in testing is because schools have broken up and schools have been testing twice per week and that expectation isn't the same now the school holidays are here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 27, 2021, 04:14:13 PM

Not a great look from Sturgeon


https://archive.is/nTiK5
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 03, 2021, 09:50:33 AM

Cstch covid for frrrreeeeeeedddddddooooommmmm!



https://www.indy100.com/politics/neil-oliver-gb-news-covid-monologue-b1895098
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 04, 2021, 06:56:50 AM
Cstch covid for frrrreeeeeeedddddddooooommmmm!



https://www.indy100.com/politics/neil-oliver-gb-news-covid-monologue-b1895098
Is he aware that, even if you don’t die from COVID-19, the effects can still be long term?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on August 04, 2021, 08:51:33 AM
Cstch covid for frrrreeeeeeedddddddooooommmmm!



https://www.indy100.com/politics/neil-oliver-gb-news-covid-monologue-b1895098
And to think I used to like that right-wing dickhead when he presented 'Coast'!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on August 04, 2021, 09:09:11 AM
And to think I used to like that right-wing dickhead when he presented 'Coast'!
   
He should have stuck with archaeology.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on August 04, 2021, 09:43:29 AM
Yet more incompetence:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58080232

While I agree with this, why on earth didn't they sort it out earlier, rather than announce it a couple of weeks into the summer holidays meaning it is going to be pretty well impossible to action until Sept.

Schools are highly experienced at organising themselves as vaccine centres, so had they sorted this earlier the 16 and 17 year-olds (that chose to) could have had their first jab in mid July in school with the second jab second week in Sept to be double jabbed (again in school) by the middle of next month. Announcing it now means it is likely they won't be double jabbed until November.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on August 05, 2021, 11:10:33 AM
Just got my official vaccination confirmation. Not having a smartphone, I needed it in paper form, so I ordered one online, and here it is.
https://flic.kr/p/2mfsY9U
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on August 07, 2021, 02:14:47 PM
Don't know what everyone else here thinks but I'm not comfortable with this vaccine passport thing. I believe that as many people as possible should be vaccinated. I have. The authorities need to encourage people to be vaccinated because the medical evidence is in its favour. I don't agree with excluding people from society though, even if they are stupid enough not to want to take it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on August 07, 2021, 03:45:25 PM
Vaccine passports aren't a good idea in my opinion, but telling people they will miss the fun and offering shopping vouchers and a chance to win £5k if you have the jab is bribery. Would you respect your doctor if he offered you money to receive his treatment?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on August 07, 2021, 05:00:45 PM
I think vaccine passports have problems around issues like how long are they valid due to waning immunity, but in principle I have no objection. Indeed, if some oik can't be bothered to protect him or herself why should the rest of us be put at risk by allowing them in to the same space as responsible people.*

*  With the obvious exemptions being allowed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on August 07, 2021, 08:37:42 PM
I'm all for vaccine passports, with exemptions for those with a medical reason not to be vaccinated, and was arguing for them when vaccines first appeared.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 07, 2021, 10:04:15 PM
I'm all for vaccine passports, with exemptions for those with a medical reason not to be vaccinated, and was arguing for them when vaccines first appeared.
what's your definition of a medical reason? How about that some vaccines may be more dangerous for ypung people than not having it? Hoe about that there has not been detailed testing on pregnant women? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on August 08, 2021, 09:49:45 AM
Report from New Scientist on one of the issues affecting young people:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg25133462-800-myocarditis-is-more-common-after-covid-19-infection-than-vaccination/?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on August 08, 2021, 10:05:46 AM
How about that some vaccines may be more dangerous for ypung people than not having it?
If that is the case they wouldn't be approved for use by the relevant regulatory body.

For approval to be given for use the benefits of the vaccine must outweigh any risks.

So from the Dr June Raine, MHRA Chief Executive:

'We have carefully reviewed clinical trial data in children aged 12 to 15 years and have concluded that the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective in this age group and that the benefits of this vaccine outweigh any risk.'

And Professor Sir Munir Pirmohamed, Chair of the Commission on Human Medicines:
"We have been very careful to take into consideration the younger age group and the benefits of this population being vaccinated against any potential risk of side effects. There has been a thorough assessment and review of this data which was also looked at specifically by the CHM’s Paediatric Medicines Expert Advisory Group who are scientific experts within this age group, as well as the CHM’s COVID-19 Vaccines Benefit Risk Expert Working Group.

We have concluded that based on the data we have seen on the quality, effectiveness and safety of the vaccine, its benefits do outweigh any risk."
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on August 08, 2021, 02:52:23 PM
Don't know what everyone else here thinks but I'm not comfortable with this vaccine passport thing. I believe that as many people as possible should be vaccinated. I have. The authorities need to encourage people to be vaccinated because the medical evidence is in its favour. I don't agree with excluding people from society though, even if they are stupid enough not to want to take it.
I agree in principle.

... However, as time has passed, in practice I feel that most of those constantly arguing for "freedom" and "liberty", refusing to wear masks and carrying on as normal are dickheads who really couldn't care less about who gets ill or how badly, and might even consider the pensioner death toll as a good thing.

So... fuck them, lets have vaccine passports for any and all activities, no jobs without jabs and ID cards showing vaccination status, medical conditions and exemptions.
     
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on August 08, 2021, 05:20:31 PM
I think vaccine passports have problems around issues like how long are they valid due to waning immunity, but in principle I have no objection. Indeed, if some oik can't be bothered to protect him or herself why should the rest of us be put at risk by allowing them in to the same space as responsible people.*

*  With the obvious exemptions being allowed.
This (https://www.portugalresident.com/us-study-changes-war-against-covid-and-suggests-europes-digital-certificates-are-pointless/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=us-study-changes-war-against-covid-and-suggests-europes-digital-certificates-are-pointless) study suggests that vaccination, and hence vaccine passports, do not guarantee that someone can't be infected or infect someone else.
The vaccine at present protects from serious disease, but not infection. The passport might tell us that its owner is less likely to need hospitalization.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on August 08, 2021, 05:38:10 PM
By reducing severity of symptoms the vaccine may reduce transmission (sg through coughing). But in crowded spaces the risk of transmission through breathing will go up. So it's no use letting people into crowded venues simply on the condition of them having had the vaccine. They also need to have had a recent negative test.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on August 08, 2021, 05:39:06 PM
This (https://www.portugalresident.com/us-study-changes-war-against-covid-and-suggests-europes-digital-certificates-are-pointless/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=us-study-changes-war-against-covid-and-suggests-europes-digital-certificates-are-pointless) study suggests that vaccination, and hence vaccine passports, do not guarantee that someone can't be infected or infect someone else.
The vaccine at present protects from serious disease, but not infection. The passport might tell us that its owner is less likely to need hospitalization.

This has been known for some time, as has the fact that you are less likely to pass the virus on and the length of time you stay infectious is shorter. As with all vaccines they are not 100% effective. Also if you are double vaccinated you are three times less likely to become infected.

Report here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/227713/coronavirus-infections-three-times-lower-double/

The more people who are vaccinated the safer we all are. A fact that the immunologist in your link, Manuel Santos Rosa, acknowledges as he is pushing for vaccination of children. (Report here: https://www.portugalresident.com/portuguese-immunologist-says-it-is-more-and-more-important-that-children-and-young-people-are-vaccinated/ ) 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on August 08, 2021, 05:42:51 PM
The more people who are vaccinated the safer we all are.
This totally ignores that most people, especially the young, can eliminate the virus before they develop antibodies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on August 08, 2021, 05:50:09 PM
This totally ignores that most people, especially the young, can eliminate the virus before they develop antibodies.
Err - how would they eliminate the virus without developing antibodies which is a key element of the immune response that is responsible for ... err ... eliminating the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on August 08, 2021, 05:50:28 PM
This totally ignores that most people, especially the young, can eliminate the virus before they develop antibodies.

See my amended post. The immunologist you quoted to support your post says children should be vaccinated. Take it up with him if you are certain you know more about the subject than he does.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on August 08, 2021, 05:54:32 PM
This totally ignores that most people, especially the young, can eliminate the virus before they develop antibodies.

How have you found that they had the virus if they have no antibodies?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on August 08, 2021, 06:13:09 PM
Err - how would they eliminate the virus without developing antibodies which is a key element of the immune response that is responsible for ... err ... eliminating the virus.
Sorry - I should have clarified this. People have "natural antibodies", antibodies that are not developed in response to Covid-19, which consist of IgM, IgG and I think IgA. These are not specific for particular viruses, but can bind to and eliminate them. People also have Natural Killer cells, a class of lymphocyte that destroys infected cells. These are the mechanisms by which people recover from infection within a week or two, before covid-soecific antibodies develop.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on August 08, 2021, 07:14:07 PM
Sorry - I should have clarified this. People have "natural antibodies", antibodies that are not developed in response to Covid-19, which consist of IgM, IgG and I think IgA. These are not specific for particular viruses, but can bind to and eliminate them. People also have Natural Killer cells, a class of lymphocyte that destroys infected cells. These are the mechanisms by which people recover from infection within a week or two, before covid-soecific antibodies develop.
Spud - I think you need to do a crash course in immunology.

IgG, IgM, IgA etc are so-called isotypes (or classes) of antibody. All are specific, in that they have an antigen binding site that will recognise a particular antigen on a foreign body, e.g. a virus protein. They are all specific for particular viruses, or rather a protein component on a virus. The exception being if the same protein is found on more than one virus in which case antibodies raised to virus A may protect from virus B.

So on the case of covid, the immune response involves the generation of specific antibodies, of all of the above classes, to various covid virus proteins. Without that acquired immune response our ability to fight infection is very weak, just associated with the innate immune system. The latter does involve natural killer cells, but their ability to respond to infection is limited without the acquired immune system.

And contrary to your post the acquired immune system (even in a first infection) will be kicking out Covid-specific antibodies within days, so your person who recovers from COVID in a week or two will be using the acquired immune system as the key component to fight that infection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on August 09, 2021, 12:51:39 AM
Spud - I think you need to do a crash course in immunology.

IgG, IgM, IgA etc are so-called isotypes (or classes) of antibody. All are specific, in that they have an antigen binding site that will recognise a particular antigen on a foreign body, e.g. a virus protein. They are all specific for particular viruses, or rather a protein component on a virus. The exception being if the same protein is found on more than one virus in which case antibodies raised to virus A may protect from virus B.

So on the case of covid, the immune response involves the generation of specific antibodies, of all of the above classes, to various covid virus proteins. Without that acquired immune response our ability to fight infection is very weak, just associated with the innate immune system. The latter does involve natural killer cells, but their ability to respond to infection is limited without the acquired immune system.

And contrary to your post the acquired immune system (even in a first infection) will be kicking out Covid-specific antibodies within days, so your person who recovers from COVID in a week or two will be using the acquired immune system as the key component to fight that infection.
There are certain nonspecific natural antibodies that we are born with, which are said to be our first line of defense. You may or may not be right that they are not sufficient to deal with infection, and that acquired antibodies are made in sufficient numbers to become the key component to fight a first infection within days.
You may like to respond to the point made at 19:45-20:05 of this video (https://youtu.be/ZJZxiNxYLpc)
It's still the case that most young people can fight the infection without vaccinal antibodies.
He also says further on that the innate immune system could become useless when ineffective vaccinal antibodies are recalled in response to infection with a future variant, and block the innate mechanisms.
Earlier in the video he reminds us of the "first do no harm" principle. So if there is even a slight risk of side effects from vaccination, that principle is not being followed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on August 09, 2021, 06:46:41 AM
There are certain nonspecific natural antibodies that we are born with, which are said to be our first line of defense. You may or may not be right that they are not sufficient to deal with infection, and that acquired antibodies are made in sufficient numbers to become the key component to fight a first infection within days.
You may like to respond to the point made at 19:45-20:05 of this video (https://youtu.be/ZJZxiNxYLpc)
It's still the case that most young people can fight the infection without vaccinal antibodies.
He also says further on that the innate immune system could become useless when ineffective vaccinal antibodies are recalled in response to infection with a future variant, and block the innate mechanisms.
Earlier in the video he reminds us of the "first do no harm" principle. So if there is even a slight risk of side effects from vaccination, that principle is not being followed.

Citing Youtube videos is all very well, Spud, but it seems foolish to take them as gospel.

Quote
Geert Vanden Bossche has recently published a letter in which he argues that the vaccination campaign against COVID-19 is going to precipitate a public health disaster because the vaccines will select for viral variants that can escape their protection and drive them towards higher virulence. His claims are speculative, he offers no evidence to support his arguments, and makes several comments which are blatantly incorrect.

https://www.deplatformdisease.com/blog/addressing-geert-vanden-bossches-claims

This guy may produce Youtube videos but is seems he's never published anything in peer-reviewed journals despite claiming to have invented a vaccine.

Quote
Never published any research about vaccines, even though he supposedly invented a new type of universal vaccines based on NK cells…

Should we stop vaccinating people in the middle of a pandemic that has already killed over 500,000 people in the United States alone on the word of someone who is board certified in Veterinary Virology, Microbiology and Animal Hygiene and hasn’t published a research paper since 1995?

Background (https://vaxopedia.org/2021/03/14/who-is-geert-vanden-bossche/?fbclid=IwAR3IjWL0v266FdeEt650U0F36vEH7EBRXdeiqlUyKyO2x-6XqlxMKDD5oCk)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on August 09, 2021, 09:16:43 AM
This has been known for some time, as has the fact that you are less likely to pass the virus on and the length of time you stay infectious is shorter. As with all vaccines they are not 100% effective. Also if you are double vaccinated you are three times less likely to become infected.

Report here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/227713/coronavirus-infections-three-times-lower-double/
This study was done in the context of people in their homes. The one I linked to was among people who had taken part in festivities, so it's more relevant to the use of vaccine passports.

Quote
The more people who are vaccinated the safer we all are. A fact that the immunologist in your link, Manuel Santos Rosa, acknowledges as he is pushing for vaccination of children. (Report here: https://www.portugalresident.com/portuguese-immunologist-says-it-is-more-and-more-important-that-children-and-young-people-are-vaccinated/ )
He said that back in June.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on August 09, 2021, 09:50:41 AM
He said that back in June.
So what. It was true then and it is true now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on August 09, 2021, 09:58:06 AM
Earlier in the video he reminds us of the "first do no harm" principle. So if there is even a slight risk of side effects from vaccination, that principle is not being followed.
Do no harm - correctly in medical ethics described as non-maleficence, is just one of the four key pillars of medical ethics, the others being beneficence, autonomy and justice. They need to be balanced and certainly non-maleficence is not the primary driver for a decision whether or not to authorise a treatment for use.

Spud - don't forget that all medical treatment will have some level of risk, or side effects. So if you will only authorise treatments with no side effects you'd never allow any treatment. The issue isn't whether there are side effects, but whether the benefit of the treatment outweighs the risks. In the case of the covid vaccine clinical trials have determined that the benefits do outweigh the risks even for children as young as 12 for the Pfizer vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on August 09, 2021, 10:10:01 AM
Quote
This study was done in the context of people in their homes.

I can't see how you came to that conclusion based on the report I linked to. It absolutely did not specify any context other than it was a sample of 100,000 people between 24the June and 12th July.

Those people might have been mixing or might not have been. they may have been at home or work or in other places.

I don't understand your need to so obviously misrepresent facts.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on August 09, 2021, 03:50:11 PM
So what. It was true then and it is true now.
Yes - I got mixed up. He changed his opinion on passports as a result of the study, not child vaccinatiin.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on August 09, 2021, 03:53:26 PM
I can't see how you came to that conclusion based on the report I linked to. It absolutely did not specify any context other than it was a sample of 100,000 people between 24the June and 12th July.

Those people might have been mixing or might not have been. they may have been at home or work or in other places.

I don't understand your need to so obviously misrepresent facts.
The number that tested positive was iirc similar to that in the festivities study. It seems when one study comes to a conclusion, another concludes the opposite. Which do we believe? The one that supports our view?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on August 09, 2021, 03:54:04 PM
Yes - I got mixed up. He changed his opinion on passports as a result of the study, not child vaccinatiin.
Have you spent a bit of time trying to learn the basics of our immune system and immune response Spud. I think you need to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on August 09, 2021, 04:55:28 PM
There are certain nonspecific natural antibodies that we are born with, which are said to be our first line of defense. You may or may not be right that they are not sufficient to deal with infection, and that acquired antibodies are made in sufficient numbers to become the key component to fight a first infection within days.
You may like to respond to the point made at 19:45-20:05 of this video (https://youtu.be/ZJZxiNxYLpc)
It's still the case that most young people can fight the infection without vaccinal antibodies.
He also says further on that the innate immune system could become useless when ineffective vaccinal antibodies are recalled in response to infection with a future variant, and block the innate mechanisms.
Earlier in the video he reminds us of the "first do no harm" principle. So if there is even a slight risk of side effects from vaccination, that principle is not being followed.

Why spend your time reading or watching garbage when there is plenty of actual knowledge readily available to study, learn from and work with?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 09, 2021, 05:56:01 PM
Anti Vaxxers storn not BBC HQ

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/television-centre-protest-anti-vaxxers-clash-with-police-and-try-to-storm-former-bbc-studios-in-london/ar-AAN7izC
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on August 09, 2021, 06:39:50 PM
There is, alas, no vaccine aginst stupidity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on August 09, 2021, 06:57:06 PM
There is, alas, no vaccine aginst stupidity.
Yes there is. It's called education. Unfortunately, it's not 100% effective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on August 09, 2021, 07:58:04 PM
Have you spent a bit of time trying to learn the basics of our immune system and immune response Spud. I think you need to.
Heck, yes. About 28 years ago, but I don't remember covering natural antibodies. Thanks for correcting me on the time it takes for specific antibodies to be made.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 11, 2021, 10:29:45 AM

Stevie Nicks cancels US concerts for rest of year because of number of daily  Covid cases in the US

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-58169510
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on August 11, 2021, 05:09:33 PM
The problem with researching the extent to which natural antibodies are involved in recovery from Covid 19 is that Google thinks you mean antibodies acquired through natural infection. However, if you type in 'what are natural antibodies?' you get quite a good result.
The Wiki entry on Antibody states, "Humans and higher primates also produce "natural antibodies" that are present in serum before viral infection. Natural antibodies have been defined as antibodies that are produced without any previous infection, vaccination, other foreign antigen exposure or passive immunization. These antibodies can activate the classical complement pathway leading to lysis of enveloped virus particles long before the adaptive immune response is activated." (my bold).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 11, 2021, 09:53:32 PM

I have a strange sense of deja vu



https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/58179312
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on August 12, 2021, 11:06:37 AM
Without that acquired immune response our ability to fight infection is very weak, just associated with the innate immune system.
Could it be said that the innate immune system's ability to fight infection is actually quite good, especially in younger people, but is reduced with increasing viral load? This would agree with the low number of children infected during the first wave, but higher numbers during second and third waves involving more infectious variants.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dicky Underpants on August 12, 2021, 04:13:53 PM
And to think I used to like that right-wing dickhead when he presented 'Coast'!

Me too. Quite extraordinary that he thinks that it's okay if he should infect someone else as a result of not wearing a mask, on the grounds that 'life's tough'. Such views exactly mirror those of Bolsonaro in Brazil, and just about every dictator and proto-dictator in the world at the moment. It really is quite sickening that he bleats on about taking his stand on the grounds of "freedom",  comparing the advice of the vast number of medical experts (loosely enforced by our bumbling government) to the evils of the Nazis in WW2. In Norfolk they would say "Thass all arse about face".
Significantly, in Camus' novel about a plague epidemic 'La Peste', he used the disease allegorically to represent the ever present danger of fascism in society.

Neil Oliver's archaeological researches probably led him to conclude that human life is "nasty, brutish and short", and that is the way things should be. So much for modern medicine and vaccination in general. Long live smallpox. Did I hear Jenner turning in his grave?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on August 12, 2021, 05:32:15 PM
Some twat on the book of faces recently compared me to a Nazi because I argued in favour if vaccine passports.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on August 12, 2021, 05:42:22 PM
Don't worry, express any half way sensible sentiment on any subject and you are likely to be accused of being a Nazi.

I found this which is connected to Covid. It is a fun bit of graphics to show recovery rates of various cities:

 https://www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on August 12, 2021, 05:55:10 PM
If vaccination had been named after its inventor, it'd be called "jenneration", and when you went for your second jab, you'd be going for "the next jenneration".
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 12, 2021, 06:45:50 PM
Some twat on the book of faces recently compared me to a Nazi because I argued in favour if vaccine passports.
There will be someone on social media who will compare to Nazi for arguing in favour of OAP bus passes
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on August 14, 2021, 11:34:56 AM
Good article about the virus and the evolutionary change it undergoes:

https://theconversation.com/sars-cov-2-mutations-why-the-virus-might-still-have-some-tricks-to-pull-165766?

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 18, 2021, 09:29:48 AM
Japanese Grand Prix cancelled because of Covid


https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/58244344
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on August 19, 2021, 12:57:10 PM
Interesting article about how we should deal with coronavirus:


https://theconversation.com/why-i-no-longer-think-we-can-eliminate-covid-public-health-expert-166206
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on August 21, 2021, 12:21:39 PM
He's too sexy for the jab. (https://uk.yahoo.com/news/said-fred-star-still-against-201321860.html) Disappointing - I quite liked RSF.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on August 21, 2021, 01:26:18 PM
People who refuse to have the jab are putting their lives in danger.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on August 22, 2021, 04:36:41 PM


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-21/science-can-t-keep-up-with-virus-creating-worry-for-vaccinated

********

Vaccinated people appear to be getting the coronavirus at a surprisingly high rate. But exactly how often isn’t clear, nor is it certain how likely they are to spread the virus to others.

Though it is evident vaccination still provides powerful protection against the virus, there’s growing concern that vaccinated people may be more vulnerable to serious illness than previously thought.

There’s a dearth of scientific studies with concrete answers, leaving public policy makers and corporate executives to formulate plans based on fragmented information.

“It’s quite clear that we have more breakthroughs now,” said Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco. “We all know someone who has had one. But we don’t have great clinical data.”

*********
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on August 27, 2021, 09:57:25 AM
In this study (https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1931.short) have they specified the vaccination status of the people who had tested positive for coronavirus? If they want to make the case for vaccination, presumably they must compare people who have been vaccinated and had subsequent thrombocytopenia or thromboembolism, with unvaccinated people who have been infected and had subsequent thrombocytopenia or thromboembolism.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on August 27, 2021, 11:24:11 AM
In this study (https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1931.short) have they specified the vaccination status of the people who had tested positive for coronavirus? If they want to make the case for vaccination, presumably they must compare people who have been vaccinated and had subsequent thrombocytopenia or thromboembolism, with unvaccinated people who have been infected and had subsequent thrombocytopenia or thromboembolism.
Not really - the issue that are investigating isn't whether being vaccinated reduced the risk of blood clots associated with covid infection. What they were looking at was comparing increased risk of blood clot due to vaccination vs increased increased risk of blood clot due to covid infection.

Given that one of the (false) arguments put forward by anti vaxxers is an increased risk of blood clots, this research is important as it clear demonstrates a much greater risk of blood clots from infection than from vaccination, which tips the risk/benefit ratio further in favour of vaccination as blood clots seem to be the major (albeit very rare) adverse effect of vaccination. There are, of course, many other major impacts of infection other than blood clots.

So the conclusion is that you are probably less likely to suffer from blood clots if you are vaccinated than if not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on August 27, 2021, 12:16:43 PM
That would appear to be what the research has concluded. The antivaxxer mob are the ones who cause harm to those gullible enough to act on their garbage. >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on August 27, 2021, 12:56:04 PM
Not really - the issue that are investigating isn't whether being vaccinated reduced the risk of blood clots associated with covid infection. What they were looking at was comparing increased risk of blood clot due to vaccination vs increased increased risk of blood clot due to covid infection.

Given that one of the (false) arguments put forward by anti vaxxers is an increased risk of blood clots, this research is important as it clear demonstrates a much greater risk of blood clots from infection than from vaccination, which tips the risk/benefit ratio further in favour of vaccination as blood clots seem to be the major (albeit very rare) adverse effect of vaccination. There are, of course, many other major impacts of infection other than blood clots.

So the conclusion is that you are probably less likely to suffer from blood clots if you are vaccinated than if not.
You can't conclude this because the study doesn't include any unvaccinated people. What it shows is that the combination of vaccination and infection leads to a much higher risk of clotting.
I found a study that shows a higher risk in unvaccinated, seriously ill covid patients. But for mildly infected covid patients there may be no greater risk of thrombosis than for an uninfected vaccinated person.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on August 27, 2021, 12:58:58 PM
That would appear to be what the research has concluded. The antivaxxer mob are the ones who cause harm to those gullible enough to act on their garbage. >:(
I'm not anti-vaccination, and with regard to covid I'm not against vaccination of the vulnerable or people who wish to have it for peace of mind. But the current covid vaccines cannot lead to herd immunity, only an ongoing need for boosters, so I don't agree with putting pressure on people to be jabbed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on August 27, 2021, 01:11:52 PM
You can't conclude this because the study doesn't include any unvaccinated people. What it shows is that the combination of vaccination and infection leads to a much higher risk of clotting.
I found a study that shows a higher risk in unvaccinated, seriously ill covid patients. But for mildly infected covid patients there may be no greater risk of thrombosis than for an uninfected vaccinated person.
But again you are looking for a different study. This study is looking at the risk of blood clots from the vaccine or from infection, all other things being equal. Otherwise you have compounding variables.

What it demonstrates is that the risk of blood clots from the infection is greater than from the vaccine, which coupled with the reduction in risk of many other infection associated complication tips the risk/benefit balance further in favour of vaccination. There is already pre-vaccination data indicating that (obviously unvaccinated) people have a greater risk of blood clots following covid infection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on August 27, 2021, 01:18:29 PM
I'm not anti-vaccination, and with regard to covid I'm not against vaccination of the vulnerable or people who wish to have it for peace of mind.
Vaccination is primarily to protect other people, not yourself (assuming you are pretty healthy). That's why refusing to get vaccinated, when in a low risk group, is an inherently selfish attitude.

But the current covid vaccines cannot lead to herd immunity, only an ongoing need for boosters,
Of course they can, in combination with ongoing immunity driven by infection and also boosters against new variants - why is that a problem.

so I don't agree with putting pressure on people to be jabbed.
People can choose, but as I've said above if you are healthy and at low risk refusing to have the jab is an inherently selfish decision. But while I would accept that some people may choose not to have the jab (and potentially be selfish) I don't think that should allow them to participate in 'high risk of infection' activities when they've refused to take an option to lower that risk. So I have no problem with requiring events and even some services and jobs to require people to be vaccinated unless they are unable to do so on health grounds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 27, 2021, 03:50:40 PM
All going swimmingly in Scotland



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-58357346
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on August 28, 2021, 02:02:09 AM
Vaccination is primarily to protect other people, not yourself (assuming you are pretty healthy). That's why refusing to get vaccinated, when in a low risk group, is an inherently selfish attitude.
The statistics for cases, hospitalisations and deaths occurring now compared with pre-vaccination stats suggest that the primary reason one would accept the vaccine would be to reduce the risk of severe disease to oneself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on August 28, 2021, 02:09:22 AM
Of course they can, in combination with ongoing immunity driven by infection and also boosters against new variants - why is that a problem.
The statistics suggest that we are no nearer herd immunity than before the vaccine roll out. I think Trent recently linked to an article about this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on August 28, 2021, 02:19:06 AM
Vaccine-generated memory cells recall antibodies effective against limited epitopes of the S-protein, so they can't be relied on to protect us in the future unless they are elicited through natural infection, which leads to an immunological recognition of a broader range of viral epitopes. Unfortunately the vast amount of S-specific antibodies in the vaccinated population now risks blocking antibodies generated through natural infection, thus preventing herd immunity which relies on the latter to protect against new variants. We might subdue new variants through boosters but not eradicate it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on August 28, 2021, 08:21:55 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/27/delta-covid-variant-doubles-risk-hospitalisation-new-study-finds

I like the last sentence:

Quote
“The plans were not updated or changed to reflect the considerably higher risk posed by the Delta variant,” he noted. “And that strikes me as … wishful thinking on behalf of not very clever politicians, frankly.”

Quite.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on August 28, 2021, 10:00:06 AM
Vaccine-generated memory cells recall antibodies effective against limited epitopes of the S-protein, so they can't be relied on to protect us in the future unless they are elicited through natural infection, which leads to an immunological recognition of a broader range of viral epitopes.
But you can, of course, raise a new or booster vaccine to a different epitome. The reason why the spike protein was chosen is it is fundamental to the virus' ability to infect cells and therefore unlikely to vary markedly without rendering the virus unable to be infectious. So by choosing the spike protein we have a vaccine most likely to be effective against variants that are themselves infectious - and indeed that has proved to be the case, as our current vaccines are effective against all the variants of concern, albeit in some cases a little less effective than against the original variant that was used as a template for vaccine development.

Unfortunately the vast amount of S-specific antibodies in the vaccinated population now risks blocking antibodies generated through natural infection, thus preventing herd immunity which relies on the latter to protect against new variants.
Nope - that is muddled thinking. If I get infected and am vaccinated I will generate natural immunity (and generate antibodies against other epitopes) as well as being able to fight the infection via the acquired immune response to the spike protein conferred by the vaccine. And indeed if there is a variant that presents new epitopes that will generate a new immune response alongside the immune response associated with infection from a previous variant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on August 28, 2021, 10:03:30 AM
The statistics suggest that we are no nearer herd immunity than before the vaccine roll out. I think Trent recently linked to an article about this.
Non-sense - we may not have reached herd immunity but we are far, far closer to it now than we were a year ago, through a combination of infection-generated and vaccine-generated immunity. Indeed I think in the UK not far off 90% of people have some level of immunity, demonstrated by the presence of covid antibodies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on August 28, 2021, 10:11:39 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/27/delta-covid-variant-doubles-risk-hospitalisation-new-study-finds

I like the last sentence:

Quite.
You will note that contrary to Spud's naive view the expert opinion, as indicated in the article, is that getting vaccinated is absolutely key to dealing with variants.

Also worth noting that the variants of concern all arose in populations with virtually no vaccine-generated immunity. If Spud's ill-thought out views are correct you'd expect to see variants of concern springing up all over the place in countries with high levels of vaccination. But we don't. That doesn't mean we won't see a variant of concern arising in a high vaccination population, but it is no more likely than in a population with low vaccination rates, indeed rather less likely as the key determinant for generation of a variant of concern is the number of virus replication events, with a proportion of these resulting in a mutation in the viral genome. If we reduce viral replication, via a range of means including vaccination, we will reduce the number of random genomic mutations and therefore reduce the likelihood that one of these is more infectious and/or generates more severe illness.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on August 28, 2021, 11:13:02 AM
Spud's views on most topics should not be taken seriously, imo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on August 28, 2021, 12:17:48 PM
Spud's views on most topics should not be taken seriously, imo.
Your views on most topics should not be taken seriously, imo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on August 28, 2021, 01:55:18 PM
Your views on most topics should not be taken seriously, imo.

You are talking about yourself as usual. :P ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on August 29, 2021, 07:18:15 AM
Spud's views on most topics should not be taken seriously, imo.
I do not expend energy on getting cross or angry and have a fairly confident, equable sort of character, but I try to not read Sppud's comments because I find them so very irritating and annoying.

Spud, this is the real world you're in, not a dream one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 29, 2021, 05:27:11 PM

The end of the suit?


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58374306
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on August 29, 2021, 06:56:54 PM
The end of the suit?


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58374306
Not while 'The Chap' magazine exists. (actually, I've gone off it in recent years. It used to have some interesting articles about all sorts of arcane subjects, but now it's little more than a clothing catalogue.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 29, 2021, 07:04:07 PM
Not while 'The Chap' magazine exists. (actually, I've gone off it in recent years. It used to have some interesting articles about all sorts of arcane subjects, but now it's little more than a clothing catalogue.)
I suspect suits will be the vinyl of the future, never quite dying out, having resurges, and supported by a loyal band of hard cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on August 30, 2021, 09:57:29 AM
Not really - the issue that are investigating isn't whether being vaccinated reduced the risk of blood clots associated with covid infection. What they were looking at was comparing increased risk of blood clot due to vaccination vs increased increased risk of blood clot due to covid infection.

Given that one of the (false) arguments put forward by anti vaxxers is an increased risk of blood clots, this research is important as it clear demonstrates a much greater risk of blood clots from infection than from vaccination, which tips the risk/benefit ratio further in favour of vaccination as blood clots seem to be the major (albeit very rare) adverse effect of vaccination. There are, of course, many other major impacts of infection other than blood clots.

So the conclusion is that you are probably less likely to suffer from blood clots if you are vaccinated than if not.
A few other people on Twitter were asking the same question as me about the nature of the study, but one of the authors has since clarified that about 90% of the participants who tested positive for covid, did so before they were vaccinated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on August 30, 2021, 10:22:17 AM
An interactive article from The Guardian regarding infection rates and spread. Ithas been published before but I don't remember seeing it:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/datablog/ng-interactive/2021/aug/30/how-contagious-delta-variant-covid-19-r0-r-factor-value-number-explainer-see-how-coronavirus-spread-infectious-flatten-the-curve?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on August 30, 2021, 12:41:37 PM
You will note that contrary to Spud's naive view the expert opinion, as indicated in the article, is that getting vaccinated is absolutely key to dealing with variants.
But is it key that everybody gets vaccinated? I recall noting that by the time all over 70s had been done, the number of cases had fallen significantly. "In England, between 8 December 2020 and 11 March 2021, 90.2% of adults aged 70 years and over had received the first dose of a coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine" By 11 March case numbers were around 6,000 per day, down from 60,000 in early January.

Quote
Also worth noting that the variants of concern all arose in populations with virtually no vaccine-generated immunity.
As I understand it, the variants of concern arose in areas with high population density and poverty, due to high replication rates there. In theory, lockdown selects for these more infectious variants so that they become dominant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on August 30, 2021, 12:45:20 PM
Non-sense - we may not have reached herd immunity but we are far, far closer to it now than we were a year ago, through a combination of infection-generated and vaccine-generated immunity. Indeed I think in the UK not far off 90% of people have some level of immunity, demonstrated by the presence of covid antibodies.
Interesting. I was looking at the numbers of cases, which seem as high now as they were back in January, although the curve is less steep.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on August 30, 2021, 12:56:34 PM
Interesting. I was looking at the numbers of cases, which seem as high now as they were back in January, although the curve is less steep.
Not true - reported cases in Jan were considerably higher than now, and there were fewer tests being conducted then as well.

But herd immunity isn't just restriction to infection, but disease. So one of the major features of the vaccine is that it reduces severity of disease and of course plenty of the people testing positive are completely asymptomatic - and we only know they are positive due to our testing regimes. In normal circumstances if an infection was being passed around without generating symptoms we wouldn't be able to tell this from a situation where there was no infectious transmission.

There is no doubt that we are much closer to herd immunity now than in January and that is due in a large part to vaccination, but also ongoing infections within the population too.

As was pretty easily calculated from back of fag packet calculations way back in March 2020, getting to herd immunity without vaccination would have resulted in many times more deaths than we've seen.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on August 30, 2021, 01:01:04 PM
I suspect suits will be the vinyl of the future, never quite dying out, having resurges, and supported by a loyal band of hard cases.

Suit wearing - and sartorial tidiness generally - is a sign of subordination to the employing enterprise. It is a matter of discipline. If, during lockdown, a home-working employee has been as productive as he (or she) was in the employer's premises then perhaps she (or he) can argue that to have a set of  uncodified rules about self-presentation are unnecessary as they contribute little to the achievement of an enterprise's objectives.

It is interesting to note that the musicians in orchestras seldom appear in concerts in the previously standard "white tie and tails" but are more often seen wearing clothes that would seem to be more comfortable and relaxed. Their formal attire was a hangover from the days when orchestras were found in the homes of aristocrats and bishops and their members wore an attire which reflected their status as servants.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on August 30, 2021, 02:19:30 PM
A conspiracy theorist called Jupp
Thought vaccines were things to give up.
"I think I'll try", he said,
"A horse wormer instead".
He came third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevensalzberg/2021/08/30/no-ivermectin-cannot-treat-covid-19/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on August 30, 2021, 02:35:40 PM
It is interesting to note that the musicians in orchestras seldom appear in concerts in the previously standard "white tie and tails" but are more often seen wearing clothes that would seem to be more comfortable and relaxed. Their formal attire was a hangover from the days when orchestras were found in the homes of aristocrats and bishops and their members wore an attire which reflected their status as servants.
While it is certainly true that few orchestras nowadays wear "white tie and tails" that does not mean that orchestra members aren't expected to conform to a dress code in concerts - in most cases they most definitely are. Typically that will be all-black attire. As a choir member we regularly perform with professional orchestras and I can tell you there is most definitely a dress code - and the orchestra will bring that with them on the day of the concert. So the final rehearsal will see them wearing casual attire and they change into their concert clothes before performing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on August 30, 2021, 04:40:17 PM
Not true - reported cases in Jan were considerably higher than now, and there were fewer tests being conducted then as well.
Yes, January had a much higher peak but it didn't last long and fell sharply. What I meant though was that now cases have plateaued at around 30,000 per day. But I guess considering that restrictions have been lifted that's still much better than the situation in January.

Quote
But herd immunity isn't just restriction to infection, but disease. So one of the major features of the vaccine is that it reduces severity of disease and of course plenty of the people testing positive are completely asymptomatic - and we only know they are positive due to our testing regimes. In normal circumstances if an infection was being passed around without generating symptoms we wouldn't be able to tell this from a situation where there was no infectious transmission.
That's a good point about the asymptomatic positive cases.

Quote
There is no doubt that we are much closer to herd immunity now than in January and that is due in a large part to vaccination, but also ongoing infections within the population too.

As was pretty easily calculated from back of fag packet calculations way back in March 2020, getting to herd immunity without vaccination would have resulted in many times more deaths than we've seen.
So what we need is for the booster to tackle Delta and then no new even more infectious strains to emerge.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on August 31, 2021, 09:32:17 AM
Yes, January had a much higher peak but it didn't last long and fell sharply. What I meant though was that now cases have plateaued at around 30,000 per day. But I guess considering that restrictions have been lifted that's still much better than the situation in January.
In Jan cases peaked at 80,000 cases per day, only attenuated by a severe lockdown. Currently we have no major restrictions and cases are less than half that, and with more testing.

But that is only part of the story. More importantly we have just one quarter of the hospital admissions compared to the Jan peak, and less than 10% of the daily deaths compared to the Jan peak. That shows the vaccine in action.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dicky Underpants on August 31, 2021, 04:00:20 PM
He's too sexy for the jab. (https://uk.yahoo.com/news/said-fred-star-still-against-201321860.html) Disappointing - I quite liked RSF.

I've long since used up my quota of gentle tolerance for the anti-vaxxers. In the case of RSF, pity his infection didn't either kill him or permanently disable him.
Fortunately, there have been one or two anti-vaxxers who realised the error of their views and managed to broadcast a warning - just before dying in dreadful circumstances. I don't know how many of the latter it will take before the penny drops with the rest of the ignorant mob. With people like Peter Hitchens (right up his own arse that one) and Neil Oliver spreading disinformation, this may not be all that soon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 01, 2021, 11:31:19 AM
But we should always be looking for better ways to achieve the desired results, right? There are those who shy away from conventional medicine in favour of alternative approaches.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 01, 2021, 11:32:40 AM
But we should always be looking for better ways to achieve the desired results, right? There are those who shy away from conventional medicine in favour of alternative approaches.

What like bleach or torchlight?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 01, 2021, 11:37:22 AM
What like bleach or torchlight?
Well if the vaccine carries some risk, as the research above showed, we should be looking for better options. Bleach sound too risky to me, but torchlight... what did you have in mind?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 01, 2021, 12:00:13 PM
In Jan cases peaked at 80,000 cases per day, only attenuated by a severe lockdown. Currently we have no major restrictions and cases are less than half that, and with more testing.

But that is only part of the story. More importantly we have just one quarter of the hospital admissions compared to the Jan peak, and less than 10% of the daily deaths compared to the Jan peak. That shows the vaccine in action.
Agreed. But herd immunity is where transmission is prevented, so we probably shouldn't call our current situation that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 01, 2021, 12:55:23 PM
Well if the vaccine carries some risk, as the research above showed, we should be looking for better options. Bleach sound too risky to me, but torchlight... what did you have in mind?

Just following an ex-presidents alternative treatment suggestions.

Alternative methods, certainly in the case of covid, is just being used as an excuse for making any old shit up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 01, 2021, 01:09:09 PM
Agreed. But herd immunity is where transmission is prevented, so we probably shouldn't call our current situation that.
Actually herd immunity refers to the spread of an infectious disease, not just transmission of an infectious agent. So immunisation and vaccination that prevents disease (regardless of whether some infection/transmission is still ongoing) is still herd immunity. Remember that in most cases we don't routinely test for infections, we determine whether or not people, singly or as a population, are infected on the basis of the presence of disease. So a population where there remains transmission of an infectious agent but virtually no disease (due to prior infection and/or vaccination) would also be considered to have reached herd immunity - in other words the population is broadly immune from the infectious disease.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 01, 2021, 03:40:56 PM
Actually herd immunity refers to the spread of an infectious disease, not just transmission of an infectious agent. So immunisation and vaccination that prevents disease (regardless of whether some infection/transmission is still ongoing) is still herd immunity. Remember that in most cases we don't routinely test for infections, we determine whether or not people, singly or as a population, are infected on the basis of the presence of disease. So a population where there remains transmission of an infectious agent but virtually no disease (due to prior infection and/or vaccination) would also be considered to have reached herd immunity - in other words the population is broadly immune from the infectious disease.
It also means, strictly speaking, that people who for whatever reason do not have immunity are protected; but I get your point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 01, 2021, 03:48:14 PM

Alternative methods, certainly in the case of covid, is just being used as an excuse for making any old shit up.
Sounds narrow minded.
So I was looking at Andrew Taylor Still's book, written before the earth's crust cooled so not particularly 'scientific' as we would define it. He recommends using the blister Beatle (cantherides) against smallpox because injecting cowpox into people was high risk.
Something I note with regard to the search for a better approach than mRNA vaccines is the necessity to treat the disease as early as possible. That sounds like a start.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on September 01, 2021, 04:02:42 PM
Well if the vaccine carries some risk, as the research above showed, we should be looking for better options. Bleach sound too risky to me, but torchlight... what did you have in mind?
I don't know how you can sit there and continue to type such idiotic stuff, I really don't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 01, 2021, 05:05:04 PM
Well if the vaccine carries some risk, as the research above showed, we should be looking for better options. Bleach sound too risky to me, but torchlight... what did you have in mind?
But pretty well everything carries some level of risk. The point isn't to identify something with no risk (albeit good to minimise risk) - the point is the risk to benefit ratio. So the vaccine is great in this respect - it is highly effective at preventing disease and of course that disease carries risks way, way beyond that of the vaccine, and it is also incredibly safe, with most side effects being very minor and of negligible impact. There are more serious side effects (e.g. blood clots) but these are both very, very rare but also much less likely due to the vaccine than due to a potential covid infection.

So the vaccine provides an acceptable level of risk due to its great effectiveness.

You might mind a different 'treatment' with lower risk but unless it has similar effectiveness it will be much worse in terms of risk/benefit ratio than the vaccine. The point being - of something doesn't work then no risk can be justified. If something does work then you need to weigh up the benefit of it working against the risk of side effects.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 01, 2021, 05:29:49 PM
Sounds narrow minded.
So I was looking at Andrew Taylor Still's book, written before the earth's crust cooled so not particularly 'scientific' as we would define it. He recommends using the blister Beatle (cantherides) against smallpox because injecting cowpox into people was high risk.
Something I note with regard to the search for a better approach than mRNA vaccines is the necessity to treat the disease as early as possible. That sounds like a start.

I suppose an accusation of narrow mindedness from you is some kind of accolade given that you are an expert in its execution.

I meant that a lot of the alternative methods proposed thus far have not been grounded in research of any kind.

Call me old fashioned but I prefer some scientific rigour applied to any treatments offered for any condition.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 01, 2021, 05:37:44 PM
I don't know how you can sit there and continue to type such idiotic stuff, I really don't.
It was an attempt at a joke. To be clear, this is about the claim that because the vaccine carries lower risk of vascular diaease than the infection then everybody must get jabbed; and the charge that not being jabbed is selfish. As it stands, the jab has been shown to be dangerous and so we should search for a safer way to prevent, or at best reduce the severity of the disease.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 01, 2021, 05:58:59 PM
Quote
As it stands, the jab has been shown to be dangerous

It has been shown to be remarkably safe not withstanding the sad cases where the rare blood clot has led to death. You are totally misrepresenting the facts.

If you are saying it is dangerous because of the few deaths there have been you might want to consider banning aspirin as it is believed to lead to 3,000 deaths a year.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/jun/14/risk-of-bleeds-and-death-with-daily-aspirin-use-higher-than-thought

It is about weighing the risks against benefits, and you, for whatever reason, are painting an inaccurate and misleading picture of the safety of the vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 01, 2021, 06:08:20 PM
It was an attempt at a joke.
Oh dear - not very good at jokes are you.

To be clear, this is about the claim that because the vaccine carries lower risk of vascular diaease than the infection then everybody must get jabbed;
Not it isn't - it is about the claim that the having the vaccine is risky, which is about the risk of having the jab vs not having the jab. The overwhelming evidence is that having the jab provides less net risk than not having it and that is even the case if you cherry pick the most recognised (but incredibly rare) side effect of blood clots. Even selecting just this risk (which you shouldn't be doing if looking at overall net risk) then your risk of a blood clot is greater if you don't have the jab than if you do.

And this is just about the benefit to the person being jabbed rather than any altruistic motive, which leads me on to ...

and the charge that not being jabbed is selfish.
Yup refusing to have the jab is selfish as it confers greater risk on other people who may be more vulnerable and may not be able to have the jab. Plus refusing to be jabbed increases overall infection and virus replication levels which makes the chances of further variants of concern arising greater. So, yes, refusing the jab is selfish.

As it stands, the jab has been shown to be dangerous
Now it hasn't - the vaccine is incredibly safe and it is far more dangerous not to have the jab than to have it.

and so we should search for a safer way to prevent, or at best reduce the severity of the disease.
Such as ...

Do you not think that researchers aren't looking at all routes to prevent the disease and/or reduce its severity. And there is pretty well universal recognition that the best (and safest) available way to do this is via the vaccine. At least that is amongst people who know what they are talking about, rather than woo-merchants.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on September 02, 2021, 11:49:41 AM
Good post PD.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 06, 2021, 06:56:40 PM
Quote
Likewise there are situations where a vaccine is necessary.

And this is one such time. You can babble as much as you like about co-morbidities and rifles but you said this:

Quote
I think for some the vaccine is being used as a crutch, when there are other ways to prevent disease from Covid that are risk-free

Come on then? What are they? What do you know that the medical experts don't know? Risk free? Like Ivermectin perhaps?

It is precisely because the vaccine has limitations that we need to have fuller coverage, and as I understand it they are looking at the reasons as to why a small minority of people suffer clotting and the like so that the vaccine can be made safer.

The main point is that it's not to protect you primarily, it's to protect the vulnerable around you.

That is unless your risk free option is that people who have co-morbidities should live in isolation for the rest of their lives.

There is research going on in all sorts of areas to find other ways to deal with Covid. Until they bear fruit our first, best defence is the vaccine, despite it's risks and shortcomings.

Quote
If there is a chance something can kill you even if used professionally, it is not safe. Such a thing ought not to be used indiscriminately.

That is just about every medicine available and many medical procedure carried out.

It's a wonder you make it out of the house given the risks of crossing the road.



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 06, 2021, 07:19:06 PM
And this is one such time. You can babble as much as you like about co-morbidities and rifles but you said this:

Come on then? What are they? What do you know that the medical experts don't know? Risk free? Like Ivermectin perhaps?
Vitamin D and Exercise - limited to 20 minutes per day during lockdown, how can someone stay fit and get enough sunlight from that?
Here is the post you replied to, edited:

It has been shown to be remarkably safe not withstanding the sad cases where the rare blood clot has led to death.
if the country was being invaded and each citizen was given a type of rifle that occasionally fired backwards at the user, would that rifle be considered safe? Perhaps it would suffice for the short term but we would be working to make it safer.
Quote
You are totally misrepresenting the facts.
https://yellowcard.ukcolumn.org/yellow-card-reports
1,612 deaths and many more adverse reactions due to vaccination in the UK to date. Unconfirmed, but more than a few at any rate.
Quote
If you are saying it is dangerous because of the few deaths there have been you might want to consider banning aspirin as it is believed to lead to 3,000 deaths a year.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/jun/14/risk-of-bleeds-and-death-with-daily-aspirin-use-higher-than-thought
No because there are times when it is necessary to have a pain killer. Likewise there are situations where a vaccine is necessary.
Quote
It is about weighing the risks against benefits
We also need to take into account (as well as the limitations of the vaccine) that some people are more at risk of covid disease than others. This study (https://www.cdc.gov/Pcd/issues/2021/21_0123.htm) shows that 94% of hospitalizations due to Covod in the US between March 2020 and March 2021 were people who had one or more co-morbidities.
So I think there is justification for vaccinating those in the vulnerable category, provided they are not at more risk of side effects/death from the vaccine. But we need to also weigh the risks against the benefits for healthy people. I think for some the vaccine is being used as a crutch, when there are other ways to prevent disease from Covid that are risk-free. Also it might be more effective to prioritize vulnerable people worldwide before vaccinating the healthy in a rich country.
Quote
and you, for whatever reason, are painting an inaccurate and misleading picture of the safety of the vaccine.
Maybe, but I am yet to be convinced, especially from what friends have told me about side effects.
If there is a chance something can kill you even if used professionally, it is not safe. Such a thing ought not to be used indiscriminately. Notwithstanding the great reduction in deaths we have seen since the vaccine rollout, we might have seen a similarly low death rate had we vaccinated just the vulnerable and elderly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 06, 2021, 07:22:19 PM
That is unless your risk free option is that people who have co-morbidities should live in isolation for the rest of their lives.
But they would be vaccinated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 06, 2021, 07:25:46 PM
That is just about every medicine available and many medical procedure carried out.
When was the last time someone told you they had side effects from swallowing aspirin?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 06, 2021, 07:29:03 PM
But they would be vaccinated.

As you have already pointed out it is not 100% effective, therefore people with co-morbidities would still be at risk from the unvaccinated population.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 06, 2021, 07:34:09 PM
When was the last time someone told you they had side effects from swallowing aspirin?

As I keep pointing out nothing is risk free:

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/daily-aspirin-causes-more-than-3000-deaths-per-year-scientists-warn_uk_593fb481e4b0b13f2c6daa10

As talked about before risk/benefit balance. Do we keep taking aspirin because it helps stop deaths because it helps prevent blood clots for patients with heart disease or do we drop it because of the 3,000 who die taking it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 06, 2021, 07:35:37 PM
I recently read that optimum gaseous exchange in the lung relies on the alveoli being dry. I noticed last winter that the cough you can get if you are exposed to excessive cold air disappears if you turn on the car heater and point it at yourself.

Yoga-type stretches, particularly for the neck, can also relief flu-like symptoms.

I'm lucky in that I studied osteopathy so I have a long list of self-help techniques which I've used to prevent myself getting a cold for the last 5 years. I sometimes get mild symptoms but never full blown ones.

If more work was done in educating the public on matters other than washing hands, more disease would have been prevented.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 06, 2021, 07:36:51 PM
As I keep pointing out nothing is risk free:

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/daily-aspirin-causes-more-than-3000-deaths-per-year-scientists-warn_uk_593fb481e4b0b13f2c6daa10

As talked about before risk/benefit balance. Do we keep taking aspirin because it helps stop deaths because it helps prevent blood clots for patients with heart disease or do we drop it because of the 3,000 who die taking it?
I don't agree with that philosophy anyway. I wouldn't take aspirin unless I was in severe pain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 06, 2021, 07:39:02 PM
As you have already pointed out it is not 100% effective, therefore people with co-morbidities would still be at risk from the unvaccinated population.
The risk-free options I believe exist would reduce disease severity in the unvaccinated population to the same extent that the vaccines do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 06, 2021, 07:41:25 PM
I don't agree with that philosophy anyway. I wouldn't take aspirin except if I was in severe pain.

Perhaps you've never had a heart attack. People's "philosophies" very often undergo changes after suffering a health crisis.

A bit like the anti-vaxxers who catch Covid and are now saying they wished they'd had the vaccine.

I suppose you could call them fairweather anti-vaxxers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 06, 2021, 07:43:54 PM
The risk-free options I believe exist would reduce disease severity in the unvaccinated population to the same extent that the vaccines do.

You have evidence?

I ask because the studies done on Vitamin D so far are showing mixed results (putting it mildly), as to exercise good luck motivating this lard arse nation to get off it's collective sofa.

As to not catching colds it is also years since I have suffered one. I have one rule - don't shake hands (this was before Covid).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 06, 2021, 07:48:23 PM
Perhaps you've never had a heart attack. People's "philosophies" very often undergo changes after suffering a health crisis.

A bit like the anti-vaxxers who catch Covid and are now saying they wished they'd had the vaccine.

I suppose you could call them fairweather anti-vaxxers.
The worst I've experienced was severe palpitations. Enough to know something was wrong. I was trying to exercise at the rate I used to and also was sleeping on a too-firm mattress. I didn't need to take pills, just address the cause.

As I've said, I'm not anti-vaccination.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 06, 2021, 07:54:46 PM
You have evidence?

I ask because the studies done on Vitamin D so far are showing mixed results (putting it mildly), as to exercise good luck motivating this lard arse nation to get off it's collective sofa.

As to not catching colds it is also years since I have suffered one. I have one rule - don't shake hands (this was before Covid).
Vitamin D is one I read elsewhere. Personally I just try and get a balanced diet. Yes, people do not exercise enough, and become obese. As I said I'm not against vaccinating them.
Well done, that's interesting. I believe in allowing myself to be exposed to a cold-virus but then allowing the immune system to deal with it. If you allow it to, it can. 'The body has its own medicine chest' (A T Still)
Nice to chat, by the way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 06, 2021, 08:15:57 PM
https://yellowcard.ukcolumn.org/yellow-card-reports
1,612 deaths and many more adverse reactions due to vaccination in the UK to date.
That is complete nonsense - have you actually read the source data:

These data are merely for people who died within 7 days of having the vaccine, not people who died due to a vaccine adverse effect. The rate of deaths is basically exactly what you'd get in the normal population, adjusted for the demographics of those having the vaccine.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting#annex-1-vaccine-analysis-profile

'Based on age-stratified all-cause mortality in England and Wales taken from the Office for National Statistics death registrations, several thousand deaths are expected to have occurred, naturally, within 7 days of the many millions of doses of vaccines administered so far, mostly in the elderly.

The MHRA has received 509 UK reports of suspected ADRs to the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine in which the patient died shortly after vaccination, 1,060 reports for the COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca, 15 for the COVID-19 Vaccine Moderna and 28 where the brand of vaccine was unspecified.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 06, 2021, 08:22:45 PM
Quote
I didn't need to take pills, just address the cause.

Sometimes you can't address the cause.

My partner had a heart attack some 10 years ago now. He had none of the risk factors associated with heart disease. He didn't smoke, wasn't overweight, drank very moderately, took exercise and yet he had a heart attack. Why you may well ask? We found out it was because of an unusually narrow artery that made him more susceptible to the plaque that builds up in all of us at a certain age. The consultant told him there are three main groups of people who have heart attacks - the lifestyle group = smoking, drinking, overeating, lack of exercise - the elderly who are just more likely to suffer cardiac issues because of their age, and a smaller group which the consultant called the "what the fuck am I doing here?" group which make up perhaps 5% of the cases they see - these are people who look after themselves, aren't elderly but have drawn a short straw genetically speaking in cardiac terms.

There is no way to address that cause. As is the case with many other diseases. For example, most of us will know, or at least be aware of people who have had lung cancer but never smoked a cigarette in their lives.

Covid, for a lot of people, only has one partial answer, and that is the vaccine. It would be great if we can find other treatments but none of the ones mentioned are a complete fix. Staying healthy and having vitamin D hasn't worked for a sizeable number of younger people who caught covid and died. It is a most peculiar virus. It can take the healthy sometimes and leave my Aunt's sister who is 95 virtually untouched by it. She had the disease but said she's had worse colds - and she truly is a creaking gate, in case you thought she was some nonagenarian wonder woman.

That's a long way round for saying there are some things you simply cannot address in the manner you have described.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on September 07, 2021, 06:33:34 AM
Perhaps you've never had a heart attack. People's "philosophies" very often undergo changes after suffering a health crisis.
Agreed. My son, whose condition was 'critical' when he was taken into hospital, and which is now good and getting better daily, is now taking aspirin. I too take it . I also take a capsule of something, the name of which ends in '...ozole', which helps to avoid any possible stomach upsets.
Quote
A bit like the anti-vaxxers who catch Covid and are now saying they wished they'd had the vaccine.
I have heard recently of quite a few very vocal anti-vaxxers who now are very ill with the disease and I'm afraid I have thought, well, it really serves them right. 

I have an equable temperament and rationalise things rather than waste energy being angry, but this particular problem shows signs of shaking that.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on September 07, 2021, 06:45:23 AM
Sometimes you can't address the cause.

My partner had a heart attack some 10 years ago now. He had none of the risk factors associated with heart disease. He didn't smoke, wasn't overweight, drank very moderately, took exercise and yet he had a heart attack. Why you may well ask? We found out it was because of an unusually narrow artery that made him more susceptible to the plaque that builds up in all of us at a certain age. The consultant told him there are three main groups of people who have heart attacks - the lifestyle group = smoking, drinking, overeating, lack of exercise - the elderly who are just more likely to suffer cardiac issues because of their age, and a smaller group which the consultant called the "what the fuck am I doing here?" group which make up perhaps 5% of the cases they see - these are people who look after themselves, aren't elderly but have drawn a short straw genetically speaking in cardiac terms.

There is no way to address that cause. As is the case with many other diseases. For example, most of us will know, or at least be aware of people who have had lung cancer but never smoked a cigarette in their lives.

Covid, for a lot of people, only has one partial answer, and that is the vaccine. It would be great if we can find other treatments but none of the ones mentioned are a complete fix. Staying healthy and having vitamin D hasn't worked for a sizeable number of younger people who caught covid and died. It is a most peculiar virus. It can take the healthy sometimes and leave my Aunt's sister who is 95 virtually untouched by it. She had the disease but said she's had worse colds - and she truly is a creaking gate, in case you thought she was some nonagenarian wonder woman.

That's a long way round for saying there are some things you simply cannot address in the manner you have described.
Such a good post and so well put. My son seems to be in the last group too! The doctors told him there were no clear causes and that it was probably bad luck!
I too havn't had a cold for many years and have only occasionally had really bad ones.
I don't get flu either, but I started having the flu vaccine some years ago because it is the sensible thing to do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on September 07, 2021, 06:54:43 AM
As I've said, I'm not anti-vaccination.

You sure sound like one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 07, 2021, 10:19:32 AM
Quote
I have heard recently of quite a few very vocal anti-vaxxers who now are very ill with the disease and I'm afraid I have thought, well, it really serves them right.

I have an equable temperament and rationalise things rather than waste energy being angry, but this particular problem shows signs of shaking that.

An understandable reaction but one to resist, difficult though I personally find that!

They are human and have no doubt been subjected to amounts of misinformation that chime with some of their inner feelings/beliefs leading them to the place where they find themselves.

The real issues lie elsewhere with the internet and some politicians/religious leaders etc., who deliberately seek to mislead. Trump being a prime example and also a hypocritical one - both pushing scepticism whilst also taking the vaccine. At least some of the other anti-vaxxers stood by their ill thought out positions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Roses on September 07, 2021, 11:24:43 AM
You sure sound like one.

That appears to be the case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 07, 2021, 12:17:32 PM
The risk-free options I believe exist would reduce disease severity in the unvaccinated population to the same extent that the vaccines do.

Getting out of bed is not risk free. There are no risk free options.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 07, 2021, 12:49:30 PM
The risk-free options I believe exist would reduce disease severity in the unvaccinated population to the same extent that the vaccines do.
Fantasy land - the only options to reduce disease severity in unvaccinated people that come close to vaccination are:

1. Lock downs and self isolation to prevent disease tranmission and:
2. Enough other people being vaccinated with consequential reduction in viral transmission to unvaccinated people.

But the second relies on a massive vaccination programme and the first is not risk-free as the risks of lockdowns and self isolation even on health are major, let alone on restrictions on basic liberties.

The vaccine is, without doubt, the best balance between effective reduction in covid disease severity and minimisation of associated risk. Nothing else comes close. Given that this is a global pandemic with pretty well every country on the planet prioritising dealing with the pandemic, including harnessing the best minds on the planet do you not think that they'd have come up with an effective alternative to vaccination if one existed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 07, 2021, 01:28:03 PM
Well it's not all bad.

BBC: Sexually transmitted infections fall during pandemic (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58474438)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dicky Underpants on September 07, 2021, 01:46:11 PM
Given that this is a global pandemic with pretty well every country on the planet prioritising dealing with the pandemic, including harnessing the best minds on the planet do you not think that they'd have come up with an effective alternative to vaccination if one existed.

Obviously not. Jair Bolsonaro, Neil Oliver and Spud know better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 07, 2021, 03:36:41 PM
Another country has a hypocritical prick for a PM


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-58471685
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dicky Underpants on September 07, 2021, 05:41:30 PM
I don't agree with that philosophy anyway. I wouldn't take aspirin unless I was in severe pain.
Aspirin would be pretty useless for dealing with severe pain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 09, 2021, 04:42:51 PM
That is complete nonsense - have you actually read the source data:

These data are merely for people who died within 7 days of having the vaccine, not people who died due to a vaccine adverse effect. The rate of deaths is basically exactly what you'd get in the normal population, adjusted for the demographics of those having the vaccine.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting#annex-1-vaccine-analysis-profile

'Based on age-stratified all-cause mortality in England and Wales taken from the Office for National Statistics death registrations, several thousand deaths are expected to have occurred, naturally, within 7 days of the many millions of doses of vaccines administered so far, mostly in the elderly.

The MHRA has received 509 UK reports of suspected ADRs to the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine in which the patient died shortly after vaccination, 1,060 reports for the COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca, 15 for the COVID-19 Vaccine Moderna and 28 where the brand of vaccine was unspecified.

Hmm, I'm not sure. Suppose someone is living with heart failure, and they're given the jab because it will decrease their risk of catching Covid. They develop a fever, a common adverse reaction, and their heart stops due to the increase in rate and strength of contraction during the fever. One could easily dismiss this as 'he was about to go anyway', but still, the death was caused by the jab. Maybe they have accounted for such incidences, I don't know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 09, 2021, 05:16:26 PM
Sometimes you can't address the cause.

My partner had a heart attack some 10 years ago now. He had none of the risk factors associated with heart disease. He didn't smoke, wasn't overweight, drank very moderately, took exercise and yet he had a heart attack. Why you may well ask? We found out it was because of an unusually narrow artery that made him more susceptible to the plaque that builds up in all of us at a certain age. The consultant told him there are three main groups of people who have heart attacks - the lifestyle group = smoking, drinking, overeating, lack of exercise - the elderly who are just more likely to suffer cardiac issues because of their age, and a smaller group which the consultant called the "what the fuck am I doing here?" group which make up perhaps 5% of the cases they see - these are people who look after themselves, aren't elderly but have drawn a short straw genetically speaking in cardiac terms.

There is no way to address that cause. As is the case with many other diseases. For example, most of us will know, or at least be aware of people who have had lung cancer but never smoked a cigarette in their lives.

Covid, for a lot of people, only has one partial answer, and that is the vaccine. It would be great if we can find other treatments but none of the ones mentioned are a complete fix. Staying healthy and having vitamin D hasn't worked for a sizeable number of younger people who caught covid and died. It is a most peculiar virus. It can take the healthy sometimes and leave my Aunt's sister who is 95 virtually untouched by it. She had the disease but said she's had worse colds - and she truly is a creaking gate, in case you thought she was some nonagenarian wonder woman.

That's a long way round for saying there are some things you simply cannot address in the manner you have described.
I know several men who, around middle age or at least before old age, fall into the category where you wouldn't expect them to suffer a heart attack but they do. Maybe some of those had a narrowed coronary artery -I think there would have been warning signs preceding the heart attack that could have been picked up by a diligent practitioner. I know someone who had a massive intra-cerebral bleed; the doctors said most probably caused by high blood pressure, even though her BP was normal. When I mentioned a history of severe migraines they shrugged. Interestingly she hasn't had a migraine since the bleed. I know what factors combined to cause the migraines, and I think they could have been prevented. The fact that they weren't is evidence that the medical profession, maybe through no fault of its own, isn't doing a thorough job.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 09, 2021, 05:29:25 PM
Fantasy land - the only options to reduce disease severity in unvaccinated people that come close to vaccination are:

1. Lock downs and self isolation to prevent disease tranmission and:
2. Enough other people being vaccinated with consequential reduction in viral transmission to unvaccinated people.

But the second relies on a massive vaccination programme and the first is not risk-free as the risks of lockdowns and self isolation even on health are major, let alone on restrictions on basic liberties.

The vaccine is, without doubt, the best balance between effective reduction in covid disease severity and minimisation of associated risk. Nothing else comes close. Given that this is a global pandemic with pretty well every country on the planet prioritising dealing with the pandemic, including harnessing the best minds on the planet do you not think that they'd have come up with an effective alternative to vaccination if one existed.

I posted my views on covid disease prevention measures a year ago. One was good dental hygiene, which has been linked with a reduction in respiratory and other disease. I would have mentioned other measures but because of the reaction here I didn't bother.

I'm open to you being right. But not for me - I adopted a philosophy that invasive intervention should be reserved as a last resort, because the body has a self-repair mechanism that intervention should first seek to utilize. That means, from an osteopathic perspective, ensuring the muscles and joints are working properly. The current vaccines fundamentally modify the self-repair mechanism.That may be appropriate if the patient's mechanism is weak.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 09, 2021, 05:33:27 PM
The way to the answer isn't always through scientific understanding. Sometimes you notice that something works, then try to understand how it works.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 09, 2021, 06:04:24 PM
Quote
. Maybe some of those had a narrowed coronary artery -I think there would have been warning signs preceding the heart attack that could have been picked up by a diligent practitioner.

Partner had no warning signs before MI. The only way to pick it up would be via a diagnostic procedure such as an angiogram. As these aren't routinely done, and it would be very costly to screen the entire population, not to mention logistically impossible, then your suggestion is nonsense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on September 09, 2021, 11:51:32 PM
I posted my views on covid disease prevention measures a year ago. One was good dental hygiene, which has been linked with a reduction in respiratory and other disease. I would have mentioned other measures but because of the reaction here I didn't bother.

I'm open to you being right. But not for me - I adopted a philosophy that invasive intervention should be reserved as a last resort, because the body has a self-repair mechanism that intervention should first seek to utilize. That means, from an osteopathic perspective, ensuring the muscles and joints are working properly. The current vaccines fundamentally modify the self-repair mechanism.That may be appropriate if the patient's mechanism is weak.
Irresponsible, anti-scientific bullshit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 10, 2021, 09:48:35 AM
I adopted a philosophy that invasive intervention should be reserved as a last resort, because the body has a self-repair mechanism that intervention should first seek to utilize.
You are correct - the body does have a self repair mechanism. The problem is that for many infections (including covid) and many people that self repair mechanism is not sufficient to prevent the infection causing very severe disease and sometimes death. Indeed, if you actually understood anything about the biology underlying the disease you would understand that the actual cause of death is directly related to the actions of that repair system - the virus doesn't kill you, your response to the virus does.

And that is why the approaches to help control the virus involve dampening down that self-repair mechanism (e.g. dexamethasone) or providing a highly controlled exposure to part of the virus that results in the development of a level of immunity but without severe side effects, such that when the body is actually exposed to the virus it's already augmented self-repair mechanism (the immune system) is better able to deal with the virus without creating dangerous or even fatal effects.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 11, 2021, 09:26:59 AM
Partner had no warning signs before MI. The only way to pick it up would be via a diagnostic procedure such as an angiogram. As these aren't routinely done, and it would be very costly to screen the entire population, not to mention logistically impossible, then your suggestion is nonsense.
Sure, I understand, just think it's strange there was no sign nor symptom at all if there was plaque build up. If the heart is not getting enough blood supply its muscle becomes ischaemic and chest pain or tightness is felt on exertion. Regarding taking daily low-dose aspirin, yes perhaps, if someone has already had an MI, or is experiencing chest pain and could be due for one. But as far as I know it's not recommended for everyone as it can increase the risk of internal bleeding. It's primarily a pain killer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 11, 2021, 09:31:49 AM
Quote
Sure, I understand, just think it's strange there was no sign nor symptom at all if there was plaque build up

Not strange at all.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080616124938.htm

For those who don't want to bother with the article, this is the main takeaway:

Quote
As many as 50 percent of all cardiac deaths due to disease in the heart's vessels occur in individuals with no prior history or symptoms of heart disease.

This may have improved since 2008 with diagnostic tools but there will be a sizeable % of MI patients who still fall into this category.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 11, 2021, 09:50:56 AM
Not strange at all.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080616124938.htm

For those who don't want to bother with the article, this is the main takeaway:

This may have improved since 2008 with diagnostic tools but there will be a sizeable % of MI patients who still fall into this category.
That's interesting, and I can't find anything on clinical signs (as distinct from symptoms) of coronary occlusion. So I can believe it - but (correct me if I'm wrong) it doesn't follow that everyone should take aspirin, nor be vaccinated against a disease that not everyone is at serious risk from.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 11, 2021, 10:03:24 AM
No it doesn't in the case of aspirin. That is the risk/benefit equation in one group of patients. It is still relevant as you are making the case for not having the vaccine for some people even though it is an infection that threatens all of us.

As I have already highlighted perfectly healthy fit 40 year olds can be killed by it and 95 year old creaking gates can survive it, therefore the only way to ensure fewer deaths/long term illness currently is the vaccine.

In the case of coronavirus, please explain to me how you know who is and is not at risk? 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 11, 2021, 02:59:39 PM
In the case of coronavirus, please explain to me how you know who is and is not at risk?

In Reply #4554 I linked to this large study (https://www.cdc.gov/Pcd/issues/2021/21_0123.htm) showing 94% of hospitalized covid patients had one or more 'co-morbidities'.

You are correct - the body does have a self repair mechanism. The problem is that for many infections (including covid) and many people that self repair mechanism is not sufficient to prevent the infection causing very severe disease and sometimes death. Indeed, if you actually understood anything about the biology underlying the disease you would understand that the actual cause of death is directly related to the actions of that repair system - the virus doesn't kill you, your response to the virus does.

And that is why the approaches to help control the virus involve dampening down that self-repair mechanism (e.g. dexamethasone) or providing a highly controlled exposure to part of the virus that results in the development of a level of immunity but without severe side effects, such that when the body is actually exposed to the virus it's already augmented self-repair mechanism (the immune system) is better able to deal with the virus without creating dangerous or even fatal effects.


I'm reading up on the biology. Yes the hyper-inflammatory response is a big problem, and I think there is a way in which it can be dampened without drugs. The other problem is how to prevent the virus from reaching the lungs. I think the first step is awareness of the natural barriers to respiratory infection, such as nasal hair and the mucociliary system.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 11, 2021, 04:13:29 PM
Quote
In Reply #4554 I linked to this large study showing 94% of hospitalized covid patients had one or more 'co-morbidities'.

Ok so 6% of the 130,000 that have died in the UK thus far is 7,800 people that will die without comorbidities. Are you willing to risk being one of the 7800?

I know for sure I am not given the unpredictable nature of covid.

Of course, that is not the only factor you need to consider. There is also the continued spread of the disease and infection of friends and relatives and also the possibility of Long Covid and all the stress that puts on an already overstretched health service.

The figure of 7800 looks large against the deaths reported from vaccination side effects of 1,632 as of 1st September. Of course, you have to weigh all the other lives saved by vaccination against that as well.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 11, 2021, 06:07:36 PM
The figure of 7800 looks large against the deaths reported from vaccination side effects of 1,632 as of 1st September. Of course, you have to weigh all the other lives saved by vaccination against that as well.
It isn't the case that 1,632 people have died from vaccine side effects - that number is the number of people who died within 28 days of having a jab regardless of whether there is any link whatsoever with the jab. And of course people die all the time, and with the vaccine roll out starting with the oldest and most vulnerable it isn't unexpected that quite a few of those people will die within 28 days of a jab dose, and indeed would have died regardless. The rate of deaths in the vaccine jabbed people is basically in line with deaths in a 28 period adjusted for the age profile etc of the vaccinated people.

See here:

https://fullfact.org/health/daily-expose-covid-deaths-vaccine-deaths/

And also here where you can link to the latest date on deaths:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales

This provide data on deaths from March 2020 - July 2021 (the latest data) where an adverse reaction to the vaccine was a cause of death as indicated on the death certificate. The total number of deaths due to adverse vaccine reaction as a contributory factor in England and Wales up to July 2021 is 4. Yes that's right, just 4 from about 90 million doses of the vaccine given. And when you are more specific, whether adverse reaction to the vaccine was the underlying cause of death the number of death is ... zero, yup none.

In comparison the equivalent data for covid as a case of death on death certificates was over 135,000 up to July.

In the same period deaths 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on September 11, 2021, 07:15:37 PM
In Reply #4554 I linked to this large study (https://www.cdc.gov/Pcd/issues/2021/21_0123.htm) showing 94% of hospitalized covid patients had one or more 'co-morbidities'.
 

I'm reading up on the biology. Yes the hyper-inflammatory response is a big problem, and I think there is a way in which it can be dampened without drugs. The other problem is how to prevent the virus from reaching the lungs. I think the first step is awareness of the natural barriers to respiratory infection, such as nasal hair and the mucociliary system.

How?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 11, 2021, 07:23:02 PM
I'm reading up on the biology. Yes the hyper-inflammatory response is a big problem, and I think there is a way in which it can be dampened without drugs.
It can be dampened down with anti inflammatory agents - some of which are naturally occurring others are synthetic. But in order to give an accurate and specific dose to the right place you need that agent to be delivered in a defined manner. And do you know what we call an anti-inflammatory agent delivered in a defined manner and specific dose - yup, we call them drugs.

The other problem is how to prevent the virus from reaching the lungs. I think the first step is awareness of the natural barriers to respiratory infection, such as nasal hair and the mucociliary system.
Just nonsense - so on nasal hair. Men have significantly greater nasal hair than women - men are also more susceptible to covid infection than women. Clearly nasal hair is preventing infection - not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 11, 2021, 07:48:04 PM
Quote
It isn't the case that 1,632 people have died from vaccine side effects - that number is the number of people who died within 28 days of having a jab regardless of whether there is any link whatsoever with the jab. And of course people die all the time, and with the vaccine roll out starting with the oldest and most vulnerable it isn't unexpected that quite a few of those people will die within 28 days of a jab dose, and indeed would have died regardless. The rate of deaths in the vaccine jabbed people is basically in line with deaths in a 28 period adjusted for the age profile etc of the vaccinated people.

Apologies for that. I did think it sounded high, but wherever I got it, it definitely looked as if those were the figures for deaths from vaccines (I'll try and look again and provide the link). Anyway, glad to be corrected in this instance. Just shows how misleading figures are.

Edit: This is where I got it from and it serves me right for skim reading, I totally missed the rather key "died shortly after vaccination"!

Quote
The MHRA has received 524 UK reports of suspected ADRs to the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine in which the patient died shortly after vaccination, 1,064 reports for the COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca, 16 for the COVID-19 Vaccine Moderna and 28 where the brand of vaccine was unspecified. The majority of these reports were in elderly people or people with underlying illness. Usage of the vaccines has increased over the course of the campaigns and as such, so has reporting of fatal events with a temporal association with vaccination however, this does not indicate a link between vaccination and the fatalities reported. Review of individual reports and patterns of reporting does not suggest the vaccines played a role in these deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 13, 2021, 01:21:41 PM
Ok so 6% of the 130,000 that have died in the UK thus far is 7,800 people that will die without comorbidities. Are you willing to risk being one of the 7800?
The 6% figure is for hospitalizations, not deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 13, 2021, 01:55:40 PM
How?
I've recently suggested one way. Breathing in air that is warm, if the external temperature is cold, or air that is cool, if the external temperature is hot, will help the alveoli to remain within the temperature limits at which they function best.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 13, 2021, 02:02:25 PM
The 6% figure is for hospitalizations, not deaths.

Ok apologies for that. The actual figures for deaths (March - June 2020, later data isn't available/easy to find) are here:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/ukcovid19deathsbyagewithnounderlyingconditions

8.9% without underlying health conditions died.

A large %  who you seem to want to take a gamble with their lives.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 13, 2021, 02:23:55 PM
Also, breathing mechanics are altered in patients with, for example, obesity or hyperanxiety. This affects the amount of air reaching different parts of the lungs, causing the parts that expand less to become stagnant. Surfactant in the alveoli reduces surface tension and ensures that they all expand equally, and it also modulates immune cells. (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3025886/)

On a larger scale, if the person is breathing using their upper ribs but not their diaphragm there will be unequal expansion. The virus apparently infects the peripheral alveoli more, and they are the ones in which gas exchange is reduced as a result of poor breathing patterns.

This would explain why acute covid patients benefited from being turned onto their front regularly.

Optimal mechanical functioning and consequent alveolar health will reduce the ability of the virus to infect the type ii pneumocytes that secrete surfactant. Healthy surfactant levels will thus lead to better control of the inflammatory response.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 13, 2021, 02:34:07 PM
Ok apologies for that. The actual figures for deaths (March - June 2020, later data isn't available/easy to find) are here:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/ukcovid19deathsbyagewithnounderlyingconditions

8.9% without underlying health conditions died.

A large %  who you seem to want to take a gamble with their lives.
That seems odd: In the US study, Table 1 says that the number of covid patients with no underlying disease who died was 740, which is 0.9% of the 80,174 covid patients who died.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 13, 2021, 02:45:01 PM
I've recently suggested one way. Breathing in air that is warm, if the external temperature is cold, or air that is cool, if the external temperature is hot, will help the alveoli to remain within the temperature limits at which they function best.
Oh dear - yet another one of your nonsense suggestions.

So living in a warm climate, such as India or Brazil or Mexico or Indonesia should naturally reduce the impact of covid. Hmm, slight problem those countries are all in the top seven for covid deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 13, 2021, 02:48:46 PM
Oh dear - yet another one of your nonsense suggestions.

So living in a warm climate, such as India or Brazil or Mexico or Indonesia should naturally reduce the impact of covid. Hmm, slight problem those countries are all in the top seven for covid deaths.
India had temperatures over 40 C at the peak of their infections. That's way above the optimum temp for lung function. Those countries also have high population densities, which worsened the spread.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 13, 2021, 02:50:50 PM
Ok apologies for that. The actual figures for deaths (March - June 2020, later data isn't available/easy to find) are here:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/ukcovid19deathsbyagewithnounderlyingconditions

8.9% without underlying health conditions died.

A large %  who you seem to want to take a gamble with their lives.
1.7% were under 70.
0.2% were under 45.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 13, 2021, 03:19:52 PM
1.7% were under 70.
0.2% were under 45.

OIC.

You have the BJ mindset. They're old. They don't count.

Having the vaccine is about the protection of others not only yourself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 13, 2021, 03:41:20 PM
OIC.

You have the BJ mindset. They're old. They don't count.

Having the vaccine is about the protection of others not only yourself.
I've thought all along that it was important to vaccinate those over 70.
Re protecting others, it's true but don't forget that young people being more resilient could have protected the elderly (once the latter had been vaccinated) through developing natural immunity, which has been demonstated (in Israel recently (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1)) to be as good if not better than vaccine-induced immunity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 13, 2021, 03:56:43 PM
I've thought all along that it was important to vaccinate those over 70.
Re protecting others, it's true but don't forget that young people being more resilient could have protected the elderly (once the latter had been vaccinated) through developing immunity through natural infection. This has been demonstated (in Israel recently (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1)) to be as good if not better than vaccination immunity.
But if you are relying on natural immunity from infections, firstly there will be a load of those people, however young, who will get seriously ill, some will die and others will have the long lasting effects of long covid. Also you simply cannot generate natural immunity as fast as a vaccination programme without the infection running riot, and when infections run riot you cannot protect the vulnerable as sooner or later the infection gets to them.

Or, of course, you can engage in a highly effective vaccination campaign which will, of course, run alongside natural immunity as until the virus is completely eradicated there will always be some underlying level of infection ongoing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 13, 2021, 03:59:14 PM
India had temperatures over 40 C at the peak of their infections. That's way above the optimum temp for lung function.
So it can't be too cold and it can't be too hot.

Spud, can you explain to me exactly how you are going to maintain this perfect ambient temperature (even if is were to have a beneficial effect) for the entire population at risk of becoming infected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 13, 2021, 04:14:27 PM
I've thought all along that it was important to vaccinate those over 70.
Re protecting others, it's true but don't forget that young people being more resilient could have protected the elderly (once the latter had been vaccinated) through developing natural immunity, which has been demonstated (in Israel recently (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1)) to be as good if not better than vaccine-induced immunity.

Which still means that in the younger group the virus will spread and put the elderly at increased risk. You are BJ. I claim my prize.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 13, 2021, 04:41:44 PM
But if you are relying on natural immunity from infections, firstly there will be a load of those people, however young, who will get seriously ill, some will die and others will have the long lasting effects of long covid. Also you simply cannot generate natural immunity as fast as a vaccination programme without the infection running riot, and when infections run riot you cannot protect the vulnerable as sooner or later the infection gets to them.

Or, of course, you can engage in a highly effective vaccination campaign which will, of course, run alongside natural immunity as until the virus is completely eradicated there will always be some underlying level of infection ongoing.
As I understand it, there will always be disease and death, however we manage infection. Social distancing can minimize this, and is very important. We shouldn't underestimate the value of natrally-acquired immunity. The "vaccinate everybody" approach causes a sudden surge in immune pressure on the virus, which responds with more infectious variants becoming dominant. Relying more on natural immunity allows the virus to occupy a niche while that immunity gradually builds up to the point where the disease is endemic rather than pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sebastian Toe on September 13, 2021, 05:52:26 PM
The "vaccinate everybody" approach causes a sudden surge in immune pressure on the virus, which responds with more infectious variants becoming dominant.


..except that the current dominant strain the "India variant" arose from a country which at the time had  IIRC less than 0.05% of its population vaccinated!?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 13, 2021, 06:49:33 PM
Quote
Relying more on natural immunity allows the virus to occupy a niche while that immunity gradually builds up to the point where the disease is endemic rather than pandemic.

Right. Allowing ever new and more devious variants to arise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 13, 2021, 07:22:18 PM

..except that the current dominant strain the "India variant" arose from a country which at the time had  IIRC less than 0.05% of its population vaccinated!?
Am not denying that Delta was detected prior to mass vaccination. It probably arose because of high numbers of infections last summer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 13, 2021, 07:26:26 PM
Right. Allowing ever new and more devious variants to arise.
Sorry, I forgot to mention that natural immunity may protect better against new variants.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 13, 2021, 07:37:11 PM
Am not denying that Delta was detected prior to mass vaccination. It probably arose because of high numbers of infections last summer.
The biggest driver for the emergence of new variants of concern is the number of viral replication events which is basically down to the rates of infection. Vaccination significantly reduces (although does not eliminate) the transmission of the virus. More vaccination, less viral replication events and therefore less likelihood that a random mutation will be a variant of concern.

And actually all the current variants of concern arose prior to mass vaccination.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 13, 2021, 08:05:32 PM
What a farce!


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-vaccine-passports-can-still-help-defeat-winter-wave-no-10-insists-3zv90szj8?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1631513420
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on September 14, 2021, 06:09:57 AM
Sorry, I forgot to mention that natural immunity may protect better against new variants.
Your appalling ignorance and disregard for the safety of as many people as possible is mind-numbingly shocking. And although you may deny your lack of concern for others, it would become apparent if you just stepped outside your complacent, uninformed shell for a moment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 14, 2021, 09:28:08 AM
Just to highlight how random and desperately cruel Covid is, and why Spud is way, way off the mark, I suggest reading this:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/14/the-virus-is-painfully-real-vaccine-hesitant-people-are-dying-and-their-loved-ones-want-the-world-to-listen
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on September 14, 2021, 10:03:37 AM
Sorry, I forgot to mention that natural immunity may protect better against new variants.

Yes. And you also forgot to mention that natural immunity will only be achieved at the probable cost of millions of deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 14, 2021, 10:40:44 AM
I've recently suggested one way. Breathing in air that is warm, if the external temperature is cold, or air that is cool, if the external temperature is hot, will help the alveoli to remain within the temperature limits at which they function best.
Where do you get the warm air from if it is cold outside or the cold air from if it is hot outside?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on September 14, 2021, 10:52:43 AM
Just to highlight how random and desperately cruel Covid is, and why Spud is way, way off the mark, I suggest reading this:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/14/the-virus-is-painfully-real-vaccine-hesitant-people-are-dying-and-their-loved-ones-want-the-world-to-listen
This should be read by Spud over and over and over again and by all other vaccine-resistant fools.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on September 14, 2021, 03:14:58 PM
As I understand it, there will always be disease and death, however we manage infection. Social distancing can minimize this, and is very important. We shouldn't underestimate the value of natrally-acquired immunity. The "vaccinate everybody" approach causes a sudden surge in immune pressure on the virus, which responds with more infectious variants becoming dominant. Relying more on natural immunity allows the virus to occupy a niche while that immunity gradually builds up to the point where the disease is endemic rather than pandemic.

I can smell something. Trying to work out what it is. Cracked it! It's bullshit!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 15, 2021, 10:13:49 AM
Where do you get the warm air from if it is cold outside or the cold air from if it is hot outside?
A car heater for cold weather and I guess a homebase air conditioner for hot weather.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 15, 2021, 10:38:04 AM
A car heater for cold weather and I guess a homebase air conditioner for hot weather.

Thereby adding to the global climate crisis.

Save the planet - have the vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sebastian Toe on September 15, 2021, 12:32:04 PM
A car heater for cold weather and I guess a homebase air conditioner for hot weather.

..and for those people who don't have a car?

Are the recommended air conditioners portable and battery operated? Do they work for your purposes if it is both hot and windy?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on September 16, 2021, 09:38:50 AM
Fascinating article about the work going on to create a vaccine that will protect against all variants, even ones not yet existing:

https://theconversation.com/covid-variants-we-spoke-to-the-experts-designing-a-single-vaccine-to-defeat-them-all-165641?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 16, 2021, 12:32:07 PM
And Jacob Rees-Mogg illustrates spectacular stupidity and illustrates why the UK govt has lost authority on this


'Jacob Rees-Mogg says Conservative MPs don’t need to wear facemasks in the Commons chamber because they regularly attend parliament and meet other MPs and says if opposition MPs also "worked a bit harder… they might not need to wear face coverings either."'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 16, 2021, 07:08:41 PM

Dumbasfuckeregogogoch

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/covid-jab-holiday-retreat-ban-21532284?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on September 16, 2021, 08:06:22 PM
Dumbasfuckeregogogoch

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/covid-jab-holiday-retreat-ban-21532284?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

Proper tinfoil hat stuff that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on September 17, 2021, 07:54:14 AM
Should one of her "guests" contract COVID-19 at her establishment and subsequently die - then she should be charged with manslaughter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 17, 2021, 08:40:52 AM
Comment from a teacher friend on their experience of anti vax protestors at school


'Anti vaccine protestors are now targeting schools! 😡 We had a load of them today, set up outside the school, playing loud music and shouting. Lessons were interrupted. We could smell the cannabis wafting up to the classrooms. They then caused a major disturbance as all the pupils gathered around instead of dispersing safely. The whole school at once! Our pupils see it as a novelty and were filming and laughing. Teachers trying to disperse pupils on a very, very busy main road were then targeted for not allowing pupils to enter into discussion. 😂😂😂😡😡😡Disgusting and wrong on every level!!! 😡😡😡😡'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 17, 2021, 08:54:46 AM
Thereby adding to the global climate crisis.

Save the planet - have the vaccine.

We could walk to Spain in September, and walk back in March? Not sure what we'd have for dinner though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 17, 2021, 09:18:24 AM
..and for those people who don't have a car?

Are the recommended air conditioners portable and battery operated? Do they work for your purposes if it is both hot and windy?

It's the sauna principle: you heat up a large box - this doesn't use that much fuel - then sit in it. For extremetly hot weather, people don't generally go outside during the day. You can keep a building cool by closing curtains and windows, provided it's already cool. You can open all the windows and doors at night until it cools off
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 17, 2021, 09:23:45 AM
I can smell something. Trying to work out what it is. Cracked it! It's bullshit!
It was probably not accurate, but I've found a video that I was looking for in which Geert Vanden Bosche explains what happens in a natural pandemic where there are no lockdowns or vaccinations. He then talks about how the latter change the outcome of the pandemic, in terms of herd immunity. At some point I'll try and write it up here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 17, 2021, 09:28:26 AM
Yes. And you also forgot to mention that natural immunity will only be achieved at the probable cost of millions of deaths.

In the short term, yes, and this is why they introduced infection prevention measures - to 'flatten the curve'. But without them, the pandemic might only last two years, like the Spanish Flu. We might now end up in a situation where the pandemic lasts much longer than it would without human vaccines and lockdowns, causing more deaths overall.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on September 17, 2021, 09:36:26 AM
In the short term, yes, and this is why they introduced infection prevention measures - to 'flatten the curve'. But without them, the pandemic might only last two years, like the Spanish Flu. We might now end up in a situation where the pandemic lasts much longer than it would without human vaccines and lockdowns, causing more deaths overall.
Absolute non-sense. The levels of deaths required to reach herd immunity without vaccinations would be massively greater than with vaccination. Vaccination is the solution that allows us to achieve herd immunity with minimum levels of deaths and also to allow us to return to as near normal life as possible - the key being that vaccination massively reduces the risk of serious injury and death, so we can live with covid in the manner we live with flu and many other infectious diseases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on September 17, 2021, 11:15:13 AM
It was probably not accurate, but I've found a video that I was looking for in which Geert Vanden Bosche explains what happens in a natural pandemic where there are no lockdowns or vaccinations. He then talks about how the latter change the outcome of the pandemic, in terms of herd immunity. At some point I'll try and write it up here.

I know the video. I've seen it. That's a load of old pony as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on September 17, 2021, 11:20:29 AM
In the short term, yes, and this is why they introduced infection prevention measures - to 'flatten the curve'. But without them, the pandemic might only last two years, like the Spanish Flu. We might now end up in a situation where the pandemic lasts much longer than it would without human vaccines and lockdowns, causing more deaths overall.


Vaccines fo no prolong the pandemic. Quite the opposite, in fact. As has already been explained to you by others, they reduce infection rates and decrease the amounts of mutations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 18, 2021, 02:42:33 PM
I know the video. I've seen it. That's a load of old pony as well.
Here's his theory:
We have innate immunity including IgM antibodies that are non-specific and can neutralize all coronaviruses.
These antibodies are depleted as we get older.
They protect against symptomatic infection in young and healthy people, forming complexes with the virus while it is confined to the upper respiratory tract; these complexes are phagocytosed by antigen presenting cells, such as macrophages. Infected cells are destroyed by natural killer cells, also part of the innate immune system.
That is why some people test positive but only have mild symptoms.
While this is happening, the adaptive part of the immune system is making IgG antibodies, which are antigen-specific. In asymptomatically or mildly infected people, these are short-lived and are present in low quantities.
From what I can tell, these IgG antibodies help someone whose innate immune system can't deal with the infection. Someone who becomes severely sick but recovers, has these antibodies in larger quantities for much longer (6-8 months?).

During the first wave, the virus mainly infects people with low innate protection.
When this 'reservoir' of hosts is depleted, there is a period where infection is low. The virus needs to find a new reservoir and so infects younger and fitter people. These peoples' innate antibodies and NK cells can deal with the virus on first exposure. However, these fit and younger people also start mounting a short-lived adaptive response of IgG antibodies which, on second exposure, suppress their innate antibodies. This is because, being antigen-specific, they have higher affinity than the IgM for binding to the virus. So if a person's second exposure happens at a time when they still have a weak adaptive response from their first exposure, the innate IgM antibodies, having lower affinity than the antigen specific antibodies, can't bind to the virus and neutralize it. But because the adaptive response is weak, the IgG antibodies are not able to neutralize it either. And so the virus is able to infect and cause disease in these people. This is the second wave.
This wave continues while there are enough people whose short-lived adaptive response is suppressing their innate response. When this reservoir is depleted, the virus then turns back to the previously infected, elderly and vulnerable group whose long-lived antibody response from their first infection has by now waned. Since their innate immunity is also weak, the virus can use this reservoir for a third wave of infection.

After this, there is sufficient innate and adaptive immunity in the population for the virus to be suppressed to the extent that local outbreaks no longer spread throughout the population.

So that's the pandemic where no human intervention occurs.

Lockdown measures lead to low infection levels, but the virus can still spread in asymptomatic carriers and can therefore still mutate. Because these peoples' innate immunity is temporarily suppressed by their short-lived adaptive response, any mutations that overcome this response will out-survive the original strain and become dominant.

This enables the virus to compensate for the pressure caused by the lockdown. Soon infections rise, and you have a stronger second wave than would otherwise have occurred.

If we add vaccination to the picture, what happens is that the virus starts to encounter more short-lived antibodies in people after their first jab. Because it has increased its infectiousness due to the lockdown, it is able to escape these antibodies and continue to infect, so that it still has the chance to increase its infectiousness further through mutation. Potentially therefore it can mutate enough to evade the vaccinal antibodies completely.

Enter the booster jabs - but again, possibly too late to counter variants that have by that time evolved to evade them also.

So this is Geert Vanden Bossche's theory, as I understand it. I'm not qualified to say whether what he says about innate immunity suppression and immune escape is correct, and it doesn't much affect my choice on taking vaccination and boosters.

Video here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shg0VWkz0VM)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on September 18, 2021, 07:58:41 PM
Have a read of this.

https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-critical-thinking-pseudoscience/doomsday-prophecy-dr-geert-vanden-bossche (https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-critical-thinking-pseudoscience/doomsday-prophecy-dr-geert-vanden-bossche)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 25, 2021, 05:33:39 PM
Have a read of this.

https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-critical-thinking-pseudoscience/doomsday-prophecy-dr-geert-vanden-bossche (https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19-critical-thinking-pseudoscience/doomsday-prophecy-dr-geert-vanden-bossche)
I wonder what he would say about what Sarah Gilbert said the other day, that the virus will become less virulent over time and end up like a cold.
Is it the case that most viruses become more deadly (as with SARS Cov2) before becoming less deadly?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on September 25, 2021, 09:25:17 PM
I wonder what he would say about what Sarah Gilbert said the other day, that the virus will become less virulent over time and end up like a cold.
Is it the case that most viruses become more deadly (as with SARS Cov2) before becoming less deadly?

Wasn't Sarah Gilbert's point that because of high levels of population immunity the virus would become more like the cold rather than the virus mutating to a less virulent form?

I don't think SARS-Cov-2 became more deadly did it - but rather more transmissible? This makes sense in terms of natural selection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 25, 2021, 10:09:01 PM
Wasn't Sarah Gilbert's point that because of high levels of population immunity the virus would become more like the cold rather than the virus mutating to a less virulent form?

I don't think SARS-Cov-2 became more deadly did it - but rather more transmissible? This makes sense in terms of natural selection.
Yes, you're right I think. It became more infectious, and the vaccinal antibodies reduce its ability to reach/cause disease in the lungs.
Geert (pronounced Gert) is still asserting that the mass vaccination has caused the (already circulating) more infectious variants to become dominant. That with only natural immunity to contend with, the wild type would still be dominant.
He's also confirmed what I thought, that vaccinating just the vulnerable segment of the population would be ok as it leaves a good proportion with natural immunity who will reduce the infections by the delta etc variants (which the vaccines can't stop). But he says the more people are vaccinated, the lower the number of people who can deal with the variants.
Also, because of the high infection rates in countries with high levels of vaccination (due to lower levels of natural immunity) that makes mutation more likely.
But I think Sarah was also saying that the spike can't mutate much more because if it does it won't be able to bind to ace2. Geert still believes there's a giant wave coming, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on September 26, 2021, 08:12:11 AM
Yes, you're right I think. It became more infectious, and the vaccinal antibodies reduce its ability to reach/cause disease in the lungs.
Geert (pronounced Gert) is still asserting that the mass vaccination has caused the (already circulating) more infectious variants to become dominant. That with only natural immunity to contend with, the wild type would still be dominant.
He's also confirmed what I thought, that vaccinating just the vulnerable segment of the population would be ok as it leaves a good proportion with natural immunity who will reduce the infections by the delta etc variants (which the vaccines can't stop). But he says the more people are vaccinated, the lower the number of people who can deal with the variants.
Also, because of the high infection rates in countries with high levels of vaccination (due to lower levels of natural immunity) that makes mutation more likely.
But I think Sarah was also saying that the spike can't mutate much more because if it does it won't be able to bind to ace2. Geert still believes there's a giant wave coming, though.

Yes, I know what he has been saying and these points are addressed in the article I posted the link to. He isn't the oracle on this so just repeating that Geert says this or Geert says that isn't of much value really. He is one voice - that doesn't necessarily make him wrong of course but it doesn't make him right either. You do seem to be doing the same here as you have done before with other topics - latched onto one voice which isn't mainstream and repeated what that voice says as if it is the truth whilst dismissing the main stream view. Experts around the world support mass vaccination whilst recognising there are some potential risks but concluding that the risk is small.

You seem to be a supporter of the idea of letting the virus run free amongst a large proportion of the population but this would result in a large number of deaths and serious illness in that section of the population with all the subsequent effects of that rippling through society. People of all ages without underlying health conditions have died or been seriously ill with long term health implications due to Covid-19 remember.

I'm not going to argue the scientific details, since I'm not a virologist and neither are you, but I do think that it is likely, from what I've read, that this virus will remain in circulation at a fairly high level but that the combination of immunity from vaccination combined by that from infection will mean that for the majority of the population the seriousness of infection will be greatly reduced. For some people however it will remain a very serious threat sadly.

The comments about the possibility that the virus can't mutate much more without becoming unable to infect us is reassuring and hopefully that turns out to be the case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 26, 2021, 01:49:24 PM
Yes, I know what he has been saying and these points are addressed in the article I posted the link to. He isn't the oracle on this so just repeating that Geert says this or Geert says that isn't of much value really. He is one voice - that doesn't necessarily make him wrong of course but it doesn't make him right either. You do seem to be doing the same here as you have done before with other topics - latched onto one voice which isn't mainstream and repeated what that voice says as if it is the truth whilst dismissing the main stream view.
I am trying to get to the bottom of why he doesn't seem to be taking into account that statistically people are less likely to become severely ill or die if vaccinated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on September 26, 2021, 05:17:02 PM
I wonder what he would say about what Sarah Gilbert said the other day, that the virus will become less virulent over time and end up like a cold.
Is it the case that most viruses become more deadly (as with SARS Cov2) before becoming less deadly?
Viruses tend to become less serious because it's in their interest to. They want to propagate themselves, and they can't do that very well if they kill their victims in short order. The ideal for them is to be easily transmissible by droplet infection, and to make their victims cough and sneeze, so that they spread the virus, but not become so ill that they isolate themselves. Also, we will be putting huge effort into countering a serious illness, whereas if it's no worse that a cold, we won't bother so much. A virus like the one in the drama series "Survivors", which killed over 99.9% of the world's population in a few weeks, would be a disaster on its own terms, as, once it had run its course, it would have nowhere to go.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Robbie on September 26, 2021, 05:23:02 PM
Comment from a teacher friend on their experience of anti vax protestors at school


'Anti vaccine protestors are now targeting schools! 😡 We had a load of them today, set up outside the school, playing loud music and shouting. Lessons were interrupted. We could smell the cannabis wafting up to the classrooms. They then caused a major disturbance as all the pupils gathered around instead of dispersing safely. The whole school at once! Our pupils see it as a novelty and were filming and laughing. Teachers trying to disperse pupils on a very, very busy main road were then targeted for not allowing pupils to enter into discussion. 😂😂😂😡😡😡Disgusting and wrong on every level!!! 😡😡😡😡'

She could have sat down with them, shared a joint and discussed - for 79 hours.


(Not serious)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on September 26, 2021, 06:28:37 PM
I am trying to get to the bottom of why he doesn't seem to be taking into account that statistically people are less likely to become severely ill or die if vaccinated.

Ii hasn't come across to me at least that you are questioning what he is saying but rather that you are repeating it as fact. If I'm wrong on that then I apologise, but that's how it seems.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 27, 2021, 12:26:19 AM
Ii hasn't come across to me at least that you are questioning what he is saying but rather that you are repeating it as fact. If I'm wrong on that then I apologise, but that's how it seems.
My recent posts may have come across as repeating it as fact because doing so helps to consolidate it in my mind. I have used ambiguous words sometimes, eg 'Geert is asserting/believes' to indicate that I am questioning it. But at times I do sway towards believing it, other times not.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on September 27, 2021, 08:03:51 AM
https://respectfulinsolence.com/2021/08/23/geert-vanden-bossche-is-back-and-still-blaming-vaccines-for-covid-19-variants/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on September 27, 2021, 10:52:03 AM
https://respectfulinsolence.com/2021/08/23/geert-vanden-bossche-is-back-and-still-blaming-vaccines-for-covid-19-variants/
Phew thank goodness most of that link is comments... I was thinking the article would take weeks to read.
It's interesting - I've read down to where he quotes part of this essay by GVB (https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/post/c-19-pandemia-quo-vadis-homo-sapiens).
That essay contains a question I was wondering if Geert addresses in #4644. He says,
"But why should one bother about antigenic variants and enhanced viral infectiousness when vaccines still largely protect vaccinees from (severe) disease and hospitalization?"
He answers:

"A higher level of antigenic variation and associated infectiousness renders the C-19 vaccines less efficient in containing the infection."
OK.
"This currently leads to breakthrough infections in the vast majority of vaccinees..."
Really, Geert? Evidence s'il vous plait.
"...whereas breakthrough disease cases are now on the rise too."
Again, any evidence available?
"...On the other hand..." Then GVB acknowledges that the unvaccinated are suffering more morbidity since mass vaccination, but predicts that once that reservoir is used up, severe illness in people with breakthrough cases will increase.

I then skipped to the end of your article, Steve. It misunderstands what GVB says about vaccines driving the evolution of variants. It refers to the fact that the variants were detected before vaccination started. But GVB is not saying that they arose because of mass vaccination. He is saying that because the vaccines neutralize the old variants but sometimes don't neutralize the more infectious ones, the more infectious ones become dominant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on September 27, 2021, 11:25:27 AM
I can actually, I think, see his concern: The viruses that are resistant to the vaccine will have the field to themselves. However, I don't generally take the opinions of one or two mavericks when the vast majority of scientists in the relevant field disagree.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on September 27, 2021, 05:57:39 PM
I can actually, I think, see his concern: The viruses that are resistant to the vaccine will have the field to themselves. However, I don't generally take the opinions of one or two mavericks when the vast majority of scientists in the relevant field disagree.

That's how I feel too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on September 29, 2021, 11:30:52 AM
Those of you following the stats will know that we have deaths in the range of 100-200 per day at the moment which is pretty bad but nothing like the peaks.

In the USA, they are currently running at 2,000 deaths per day. Here's an animation that explains why it is so bad there:

https://dangoodspeed.com/covid/total-cases-since-june

tl;dw politics
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on October 02, 2021, 09:54:41 PM
Not a horse de-wormer. (https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/covid-antiviral-pill-half-hospitalisations-deaths-merck-b958364.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0_SygjvnoogomXA-mJre0Vf3nbvdrC-KXQ2eDHq_CMtraXY04Q6nhBEJo#Echobox=1633108857)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ekim on October 03, 2021, 08:55:27 AM
Neigh, lad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 03, 2021, 12:31:58 PM
Not a horse de-wormer. (https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/covid-antiviral-pill-half-hospitalisations-deaths-merck-b958364.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0_SygjvnoogomXA-mJre0Vf3nbvdrC-KXQ2eDHq_CMtraXY04Q6nhBEJo#Echobox=1633108857)
How do you know? Has anybody tried deworming horses with it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 03, 2021, 06:09:51 PM
Those of you following the stats will know that we have deaths in the range of 100-200 per day at the moment which is pretty bad but nothing like the peaks.

In the USA, they are currently running at 2,000 deaths per day. Here's an animation that explains why it is so bad there:

https://dangoodspeed.com/covid/total-cases-since-june

tl;dw politics
There definitely seems to be a correlation in some countries between low vaccine take-up and high morbidity and mortality. But India has low cases yet only 17% are fully vaccinated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on October 04, 2021, 07:48:01 AM
There definitely seems to be a correlation in some countries between low vaccine take-up and high morbidity and mortality. But India has low cases yet only 17% are fully vaccinated.

That's because India has high numbers of unreported cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on October 04, 2021, 07:58:41 AM
There definitely seems to be a correlation in some countries between low vaccine take-up and high morbidity and mortality. But India has low cases yet only 17% are fully vaccinated.
As well as what a-o said, it is typical of pandemics to be patchy: some areas get off lightly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on October 04, 2021, 08:04:25 AM
That's because India has high numbers of unreported cases.


When the cases were soaring in April-May 21 no one said the figures were wrong.... 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 04, 2021, 09:05:20 AM

When the cases were soaring in April-May 21 no one said the figures were wrong....

http://www.religionethics.co.uk/index.php?topic=17238.4225
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SusanDoris on October 04, 2021, 12:57:35 PM
I am very pleased to say that this morning I have had my flu jab and my booster vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 04, 2021, 02:59:44 PM

When the cases were soaring in April-May 21 no one said the figures were wrong....

Yes they did. More or Less did a segment on it and they suggested that it was likely that Indian actual cases exceeded all reported cases world wide at the time - that includes those reported by India.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on October 04, 2021, 07:54:00 PM
Gillian McKeith - who, unsurprisingly, is an anti-vaccinator - makes an idiot of herself again.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/gillian-mckeith-spectacularly-misunderstood-a-funeral-home-s-pro-vax-advert/ar-AAP7j4l?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 05, 2021, 09:58:06 AM
Gillian McKeith - who, unsurprisingly, is an anti-vaccinator - makes an idiot of herself again.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/gillian-mckeith-spectacularly-misunderstood-a-funeral-home-s-pro-vax-advert/ar-AAP7j4l?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

I wanted to say that her response to the ad doesn't make her an anti-vaxer. I might say "this funeral director knows something" i.e. not getting vaccinated increases his business.

Sadly, I did my due diligence by reading some of her tweets, and it became obvious that my charitable interpretation doesn't fly. She is an anti-vaxer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on October 12, 2021, 10:40:25 AM

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/12/covid-response-one-of-uks-worst-ever-public-health-failures

"Britain’s early handling of the coronavirus pandemic was one of the worst public health failures in UK history, with ministers and scientists taking a “fatalistic” approach that exacerbated the death toll, a landmark inquiry has found.

“Groupthink”, evidence of British exceptionalism and a deliberately “slow and gradualist” approach meant the UK fared “significantly worse” than other countries, according to the 151-page “Coronavirus: lessons learned to date” report led by two former Conservative ministers."

As if we hadn't known all along!


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 12, 2021, 10:47:05 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/12/covid-response-one-of-uks-worst-ever-public-health-failures

"Britain’s early handling of the coronavirus pandemic was one of the worst public health failures in UK history, with ministers and scientists taking a “fatalistic” approach that exacerbated the death toll, a landmark inquiry has found.

“Groupthink”, evidence of British exceptionalism and a deliberately “slow and gradualist” approach meant the UK fared “significantly worse” than other countries, according to the 151-page “Coronavirus: lessons learned to date” report led by two former Conservative ministers."

As if we hadn't known all along!

Sorry always seems to be the hardest word.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/stephen-barclay-refuses-apologise-covid-pandemic-response-government-report-b960000.html

Heartless, uncaring, self serving bastards.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 12, 2021, 12:03:18 PM
Another random thought or two.

Boris Johnson is on holiday in Marbella.

This damning report on the governments response to Covid is released.

Do you still believe in coincidences?

I fucking don't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 12, 2021, 01:12:56 PM
I had a thought or two as well, last week. The news said there could be 60,000 deaths from Flu this winter. The reasoning was that because there wasn't enough flu circulating last year, due to lockdown, people will now be more susceptible to it. I take this to mean that not enough of those with good innate immunity have been infected, and acquired natural immunity to it, in order to provide a level of herd immunity. Doesn't this also apply to Sars covid-19, in that because we didn't allow it to circulate to an extent, in healthy and young people, there were more deaths later on? This did seem to be the case following the extensive lockdowns of 2020, when the world has experienced two large spikes this year caused by variants of concern.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on October 12, 2021, 01:36:15 PM
I had a thought or two as well, last week. The news said there could be 60,000 deaths from Flu this winter. The reasoning was that because there wasn't enough flu circulating last year, due to lockdown, people will now be more susceptible to it. I take this to mean that not enough of those with good innate immunity have been infected, and acquired natural immunity to it, in order to provide a level of herd immunity. Doesn't this also apply to Sars covid-19, in that because we didn't allow it to circulate to an extent, in healthy and young people, there were more deaths later on? This did seem to be the case following the extensive lockdowns of 2020, when the world has experienced two large spikes this year caused by variants of concern.

As I understand it the innate immune system's effectiveness isn't dependent upon exposure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on October 12, 2021, 02:01:34 PM
I had a thought or two as well, last week. The news said there could be 60,000 deaths from Flu this winter. The reasoning was that because there wasn't enough flu circulating last year, due to lockdown, people will now be more susceptible to it. I take this to mean that not enough of those with good innate immunity have been infected, and acquired natural immunity to it, in order to provide a level of herd immunity. Doesn't this also apply to Sars covid-19, in that because we didn't allow it to circulate to an extent, in healthy and young people, there were more deaths later on? This did seem to be the case following the extensive lockdowns of 2020, when the world has experienced two large spikes this year caused by variants of concern.

The idea that there could be serious flu outbreaks is speculation and by no means certain. This article explores some of the issues:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2783644

If anything the problem, should there be one, will be due to timing - in a normal year the exposure to flu spreads gradually so we don't have an sudden unexpected demand on hospital resources - as we might have if everyone is exposed at the same time due to lifting of distancing measures. This is different to covid which spreads faster.

In any case the main message is to take advantage of the flu vaccine as well as the covid.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 12, 2021, 02:08:11 PM
As I understand it the innate immune system's effectiveness isn't dependent upon exposure.
Yes, I meant that people with good innate immunity were not exposed to the wild type. If they had been, their innate, non-specific antibodies would have neutralized not only the wild type but also mutated strains, which would then only be able to circulate in low levels. Since this didn't happen, more infectious variants were able to become dominant, causing a higher infectious pressure, which the innate immunity of healthy people finds harder to deal with.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on October 12, 2021, 02:17:08 PM
Yes, I meant that people with good innate immunity were not exposed to the wild type. If they had been, their innate, non-specific antibodies would have neutralized not only the wild type but also mutated strains, which would then only be able to circulate in low levels. Since this didn't happen, more infectious variants were able to become dominant, causing a higher infectious pressure, which the innate immunity of healthy people finds harder to deal with.

??? As has been said before, the more people have the virus, the more likely it is to mutate, maybe into more infectious forms. This still sounds like the stuff from that vet who's been debunked.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 12, 2021, 02:50:48 PM
??? As has been said before, the more people have the virus, the more likely it is to mutate, maybe into more infectious forms. This still sounds like the stuff from that vet who's been debunked.
Sure - but I'm also talking about what the person in the Spanish researchers' article in Udayana's link says, that "the absence of circulation of certain pathogens can lead to a decrease in herd immunity against them. This can promote the rise of more serious, longer-lasting epidemics that start sooner".
I wondered whether "certain pathogens" includes Covid 19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 12, 2021, 03:07:29 PM
Spud

"Yes, I meant that people with good innate immunity were not exposed to the wild type. If they had been, their innate, non-specific antibodies would have neutralized not only the wild type but also mutated strains, which would then only be able to circulate in low levels. Since this didn't happen, more infectious variants were able to become dominant, causing a higher infectious pressure, which the innate immunity of healthy people finds harder to deal with."

This is bollocks. Coronaviruses mutate. Natural immunity also drives mutations.

People died at the beginning of the pandemic from the original strain in Wuhan who were healthy, stop stretching for reasons to justify your, quite frankly, ludicrous aversion to vaccination programmes.

I really am not sure what your point is.

If we had allowed Covid to carry on in it's own way with no interventions, many many more people would have died.

If we had interventions such as social distancing, face masks etc, still many many more people would have died. There are also all the other negative consequences that go with such a policy both economically and psychologically.

The ONLY way out of this situation that gets us anywhere close to normal is vaccination.

To do nothing would be at the very least manslaughter.

Please step forward one Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, the do-nothinger par excellence.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on October 12, 2021, 04:15:25 PM
Sure - but I'm also talking about what the person in the Spanish researchers' article in Udayana's link says, that "the absence of circulation of certain pathogens can lead to a decrease in herd immunity against them. This can promote the rise of more serious, longer-lasting epidemics that start sooner".
I wondered whether "certain pathogens" includes Covid 19.

In basic epidemiological models the population falls into three groups:

Susceptible - individuals who can be infected by the disease

Infected - individuals who are infected and can spread the infection

Removed - individuals that are no longer relevant because:

 a) they are naturally immune
 b) they have been infected but recovered with at least temporary immunity
 c) they have been vaccinated
 d) they have been infected and died

The herd immunity threshold is the proportion of the population that must be in the Removed group to bring the number of susceptible individuals infected by contact with each infected individual to 1 or less, such that the epidemic ends.

For both flu and covid we are not going to get to the herd immunity threshold as new variants arise quickly, so everyone will eventually end up in one of the Removed sub-groups.

We can take our chances but clearly the best bet is to be vaccinated even given the vaccination is not perfect.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 12, 2021, 04:51:00 PM
Strong stuff from Marina Hyde:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/12/covid-report-government-boris-johnson-scientific-advisers-polls
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 12, 2021, 08:10:30 PM
In basic epidemiological models the population falls into three groups:

Susceptible - individuals who can be infected by the disease

Infected - individuals who are infected and can spread the infection

Removed - individuals that are no longer relevant because:

 a) they are naturally immune
 b) they have been infected but recovered with at least temporary immunity
 c) they have been vaccinated
 d) they have been infected and died

The herd immunity threshold is the proportion of the population that must be in the Removed group to bring the number of susceptible individuals infected by contact with each infected individual to 1 or less, such that the epidemic ends.

For both flu and covid we are not going to get to the herd immunity threshold as new variants arise quickly, so everyone will eventually end up in one of the Removed sub-groups.

We can take our chances but clearly the best bet is to be vaccinated even given the vaccination is not perfect.
I don't think your explanation  takes into account the people from the susceptible group who can be infected but can recover without developing long-term acquired immunity - ie those whose innate antibodies neitralize the virus.

As long as a low infection rate is maintained, thia group helps protect those who are susceptible to severe morbidity and mortality.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 13, 2021, 01:04:43 AM
Indeed

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on October 13, 2021, 11:54:37 AM
I don't think your explanation  takes into account the people from the susceptible group who can be infected but can recover without developing long-term acquired immunity - ie those whose innate antibodies neitralize the virus.

As long as a low infection rate is maintained, thia group helps protect those who are susceptible to severe morbidity and mortality.

That would be most people: they are susceptible, if infected they can further spread the infection but have some, often temporary, level of immunity when recovered.  How can they possibly be helping protect anyone except by getting vaccinated so they reduce the likelihood of spreading the disease? 
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 14, 2021, 05:52:59 PM
That would be most people: they are susceptible, if infected they can further spread the infection but have some, often temporary, level of immunity when recovered.  How can they possibly be helping protect anyone except by getting vaccinated so they reduce the likelihood of spreading the disease?
I mean those who have not been previously exposed but can still recover while specific antibodies are not present in high enough amounts to play a part in the recovery. Such as most young children and asymptomatically infected people. IIRC these do not shed as much virus, therefore they are less of a threat to others, and can therefore act as a sponge to soak up the virus. I thought this was the concept being described in the news - having a level of circulation of Flu that will help prevent an epidemic?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on October 15, 2021, 10:44:53 AM
I mean those who have not been previously exposed but can still recover while specific antibodies are not present in high enough amounts to play a part in the recovery. Such as most young children and asymptomatically infected people. IIRC these do not shed as much virus, therefore they are less of a threat to others, and can therefore act as a sponge to soak up the virus. I thought this was the concept being described in the news - having a level of circulation of Flu that will help prevent an epidemic?

No. The more people there are who are less likely to be infected and/or spread the infection (covid or flu or other disease) the slower the spread of the disease, but they do not act as a "sponge" - preventing the spread. They help by not participating in the spread. Of-course having the most vulnerable being vaccinated helps hugely as it reduces the chance of them getting seriously ill even if they are exposed to the virus.     

So, for example, with flu the same number of people will end up getting infected and the same number seriously ill whether or not the flu virus was circulating earlier in the year - just that cases would have been more spread out over time and, so, would be easier to deal with. Of-course if people, especially the more vulnerable, have been vaccinated with a vaccine appropriate for the variety of virus in circulation, the number of serious cases would be greatly reduced as well as the overall number of cases and speed of spread.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 15, 2021, 12:57:28 PM
No. The more people there are who are less likely to be infected and/or spread the infection (covid or flu or other disease) the slower the spread of the disease, but they do not act as a "sponge" - preventing the spread. They help by not participating in the spread. Of-course having the most vulnerable being vaccinated helps hugely as it reduces the chance of them getting seriously ill even if they are exposed to the virus.     

So, for example, with flu the same number of people will end up getting infected and the same number seriously ill whether or not the flu virus was circulating earlier in the year - just that cases would have been more spread out over time and, so, would be easier to deal with. Of-course if people, especially the more vulnerable, have been vaccinated with a vaccine appropriate for the variety of virus in circulation, the number of serious cases would be greatly reduced as well as the overall number of cases and speed of spread.

Okay, I am with you in that everyone being not exposed to Flu for a year and then all exposed at the same time would result in a lot of people catching it at once, thus overstretching the NHS. Simple - don't know why I didn't get that. There has already been a very bad cold which a lot of people have found difficult to shake off. Maybe this was due to the high infection rate after the summer holidays, leading to "higher likelihood of re-infection while experiencing suppression of innate antibodies by short-lived, sub-optimal antibodies acquired after initial infection" (to paraphrase Geert Vanden Bossche).

So this idea of asympomatics acting as a sponge may be talking more about innate immunity preventing dominance of more infectious variants. Since they have low specificity, these IgM-secreting memory B cells (which are already present in children prior to infection) (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30135-8/fulltext) may be able to deal equally with those variants as they do with the original strain. I need to find some research-based evidence for this, and I think there may be some on GVB's website. (But see in the above link: "Natural antibodies, mostly of IgM isotype and generated independently of previous antigen encounters, have a broad reactivity and a variable affinity." Also, The innate immune response often appears sufficient to eliminate the virus altogether, particularly in mild or asymptomatic infection. (https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210810/Natural-vs-vaccine-induced-COVID-19-immunity.aspx))

Specific antibodies (whether derived from infection or vaccines), if present in the population in large quantities, would drive selection of more infectious variants, since they filter out the original strain but let more infectious ones continue to circulate. So if too many people were vaccinated, you would end up with a higher rate of infection, albeit with lower morbidity/mortality, because those vaccine-derived antibodies do not prevent infection from the more infectious variants, but are effective in preventing severe disease. On the other hand, naturally acquired specific antibodies build up in lower numbers, and thus do not suppress innate IgM  so much that the latter can't prevent the more infectious variants becoming dominant.

So I wonder whether allowing this sponging effect (innate immunity of younger and fitter population preventing more infectious variants from becoming dominant) to happen in combination with vaccinating only the immunosuppressed, would lead to reduced mortality as well as reduced infection?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on October 15, 2021, 08:57:53 PM
Spud,

You seem to be concerned about which variant is dominant, but there is little we can do about that.

Variants of the Sars-Cov-2 virus are not in competition with each other. An individual can be infected by either or both. If an infected person has anti-bodies against a less infectious variant it does not make it any easier for a more infectious variant to spread ("drive infection").

In fact, it can be taken as given that the more infectious variant will dominate (ie. be seen in a larger number of cases) unless it can be kept isolated.

You might be dazzled or caught in the glare of technical jargon from an off-beam troll?   
   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 17, 2021, 03:28:18 PM
Spud,

You seem to be concerned about which variant is dominant, but there is little we can do about that.

Variants of the Sars-Cov-2 virus are not in competition with each other. An individual can be infected by either or both. If an infected person has anti-bodies against a less infectious variant it does not make it any easier for a more infectious variant to spread ("drive infection").

In fact, it can be taken as given that the more infectious variant will dominate (ie. be seen in a larger number of cases) unless it can be kept isolated.

You might be dazzled or caught in the glare of technical jargon from an off-beam troll?   
 
His point is that if lots of people have innate antibodies that work equally well against all variants, then more infectious mutants cannot become dominant and hence the infection rate stays low.
But if those innate antibodies are suppressed by either (1) vaccine-derived ones that only work on less infectious strains or are waning, or (2) weak or waning levels of antibodies naturally acquired through previous infection, in these cases, the more infectious strains can become dominant and the infection rate will increase.
Yep he might be wrong, but he has a list of research papers that he says proves this.
Interestingly he says the vaccines are safe and effective, and is not against individuals choosing to use them; mass use, however, he says will cause the above effect and so is not advised.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on October 17, 2021, 03:40:38 PM
Spud. The talk of innate antibodies refers to children as far as I can see. At what age does that decline? Sorry if mentioned earlier.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on October 17, 2021, 06:49:18 PM
His point is that if lots of people have innate antibodies that work equally well against all variants, then more infectious mutants cannot become dominant and hence the infection rate stays low.
...

Just thinking about the first point:

Take a population of 100 people, half of whom are naturally immune against two variants, A and B. Someone with variant A passes it on to 2 others in a day (then recovers), someone with variant B passes it onto 4 people in a day before recovering. Introduce one person infected with A and one person infected with B into the population.

On day 2 there are two people infected with A but 4 people with B
On day 3 there are 4 people with A but 16 with B
...
and so on ... until all the 50 susceptible people have been infected - the next day.

You can play with the numbers but for large populations variant B will almost always be dominant - at least until we approach herd immunity. And we can see that that has been the case worldwide in populations that have had low numbers vaccinated.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 18, 2021, 11:27:12 PM
Over a fifth of the daily world figures are in the UK





Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 19, 2021, 09:46:04 AM
Over a fifth of the daily world figures are in the UK

Could be worse. The USA has had about 2,000 people dying every day for the last few weeks. That would be the same as about 400 people dying per day in the UK.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 19, 2021, 01:02:13 PM
Just thinking about the first point:

Take a population of 100 people, half of whom are naturally immune against two variants, A and B. Someone with variant A passes it on to 2 others in a day (then recovers), someone with variant B passes it onto 4 people in a day before recovering. Introduce one person infected with A and one person infected with B into the population.

On day 2 there are two people infected with A but 4 people with B
On day 3 there are 4 people with A but 16 with B
...
and so on ... until all the 50 susceptible people have been infected - the next day.

You can play with the numbers but for large populations variant B will almost always be dominant - at least until we approach herd immunity. And we can see that that has been the case worldwide in populations that have had low numbers vaccinated.
Okay, fair point if we are thinking of variants that have already started spreading. If we start with the Wuhan type, though, and think about a person who has just been infected with it. When the virus starts to replicate, by chance it mutates into particles that can enter cells slightly more easily. There will be a small amount of this variant and relatively more original strain in that one person. If his non-specific, innate antibodies reduce the overall amount of virus by 90% (before S-specific antibodies are produced to clear the rest), and deal with the variant and wild type alike, there will be the same proportion of the two strains left over, so the amount of mutated virus won't be enough, if transmitted to a person with functioning innate antibodies, to become dominant. If there is a high enough proportion of people with functioning innate antibodies in the population the variant won't be able to become dominant.

This is explained from 34:18 to 48:10 in this video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qP31cfD3YOY).

It assumes that the mutated viral particles aren't transmitted as soon as they appear in the host, whose innate immune system has rapidly been activated.

Spud. The talk of innate antibodies refers to children as far as I can see. At what age does that decline? Sorry if mentioned earlier.
They are present throughout life but decline with age.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 19, 2021, 01:44:07 PM
If his non-specific, innate antibodies reduce the overall amount of virus by 90% (before S-specific antibodies are produced to clear the rest), and deal with the variant and wild type alike, there will be the same proportion of the two strains left over, so the amount of mutated virus won't be enough, if transmitted to a person with functioning innate antibodies, to become dominant. If there is a high enough proportion of people with functioning innate antibodies in the population the variant won't be able to become dominant.
Completely scientifically illiterate non-sense.

Firstly that wouldn't prevent the new more transmissible variant from becoming dominant as the whole point is that for any given amount of viral load the more transmissible variant will have a greater propensity to infect and replicate within the cells of the host and be released to infect others. So you might start with equal proportions but once this goes through the next host you will have greater proportions of the new more transmissible variant, and that effect will compound with each infection, replication within a host and release cycle. Hence you get the new strain becoming dominant.

But it also fails to recognise that the innate and acquired immune systems go hand in hand - if we become infected both will become involved in the immune response. But of course the innate system alone is simply insufficient to deal with any significant infection event and even with the first exposure to the virus the combination of innate and acquired may be insufficient to prevent severe disease or even death. The key point about acquired immunity is it makes you much less vulnerable the second (third etc) time you encounter the pathogen. So we can allow this to happen naturally, and accept major levels of serious disease and death, or we can short circuit the reponse by kick start acquired immunity in a safe manner using the vaccine, so that when that person encounters the actual pathogen the are less infectious and less likely to get serious disease or die.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on October 19, 2021, 06:02:43 PM
That Arsehole Justin Welby should be calling down God's judgment on our Covid Loving Government but no. He's more Garden of Eton than Garden of Eden.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 19, 2021, 08:47:39 PM
That Arsehole Justin Welby should be calling down God's judgment on our Covid Loving Government but no. He's more Garden of Eton than Garden of Eden.
What rattled your cage on this one Vlad - this comment seems to come without any context. What exactly has Welby said in relation to covid.

I'd certainly agree that religions, and in particular the major christian denominations have been notable by their absence throughout the pandemic. While local communities, businesses, all sorts of charities, key workers etc etc have all stepped up to the plate to help others, churches have been effectively invisible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on October 20, 2021, 09:23:32 AM
Looking at the BBC news this morning I'm struggling to understand why reintroducing the requirement to use facemasks is such a hot potato: after all, it isn't exact an onerous demand.

Here in Scotland the need to wear them in shops and public transport, and for older kids in secondary school, was never removed - and, anecdotally, compliance with this seems almost universal in my experience. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 20, 2021, 09:29:05 AM
Looking at the BBC news this morning I'm struggling to understand why reintroducing the requirement to use facemasks is such a hot potato: after all, it isn't exact an onerous demand.

Here in Scotland the need to wear them in shops and public transport, and for older kids in secondary school, was never removed - and, anecdotally, compliance with this seems almost universal in my experience.
Definitely not universal on public transport in my experience.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 20, 2021, 09:31:17 AM
Looking at the BBC news this morning I'm struggling to understand why reintroducing the requirement to use facemasks is such a hot potato: after all, it isn't exact an onerous demand.

Here in Scotland the need to wear them in shops and public transport, and for older kids in secondary school, was never removed - and, anecdotally, compliance with this seems almost universal in my experience.
Mask wearing has really dwindled in England since it ceased to be broadly mandatory. And that includes in places where it remains required, for example on London Transport - the problem is that there is no real way to enforce the requirement as the rules only allow LT staff to prevent people from travelling rather than issue fines etc.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 20, 2021, 09:50:25 AM
Looking at the BBC news this morning I'm struggling to understand why reintroducing the requirement to use facemasks is such a hot potato: after all, it isn't exact an onerous demand.

Here in Scotland the need to wear them in shops and public transport, and for older kids in secondary school, was never removed - and, anecdotally, compliance with this seems almost universal in my experience.

Kwasi Kwarteng. What a useless politician.

I've just written to my MP (again) about reintroducing the mask mandate. Trying to keep up the pressure, but the government are so obdurate that I fear that wearing my fingers to the bone on a keyboard will have no effect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 20, 2021, 09:57:40 AM
Kwasi Kwarteng. What a useless politician.

I've just written to my MP (again) about reintroducing the mask mandate. Trying to keep up the pressure, but the government are so obdurate that I fear that wearing my fingers to the bone on a keyboard will have no effect.
My fear is that even if the government reintroduces the mandate it will be impossible to enforce - once you have removed something (mask wearing) I think it will be really hard to reintroduce it. I suspect large swathes of the public will just shrug and carry on maskless.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 20, 2021, 10:09:06 AM
My fear is that even if the government reintroduces the mandate it will be impossible to enforce - once you have removed something (mask wearing) I think it will be really hard to reintroduce it. I suspect large swathes of the public will just shrug and carry on maskless.

Possibly, but it could still persuade enough people to change, and that overall change would make a difference.

They have painted themselves into a corner entirely of their own making.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 20, 2021, 11:09:41 AM
Possibly, but it could still persuade enough people to change, and that overall change would make a difference.

They have painted themselves into a corner entirely of their own making.
Actually the area which is now really concerning me is vaccination.

It has been clear for some time that vaccine efficacy does wane over time, hence the need for boosters. Yet the booster programme seems shambolic and completely lacks transparency - we keep receiving more information about the proportion of the population single and double jabbed, but we also need to see data on the numbers receiving their boosters, which are supposed to be provided 6 months after the second jab. So we should be seeing the same level of vaccination activity right now and over the past month as we saw in March/April as all those people will be ready for boosters.

The other thing which is again, too little too late, is 12-15 year olds. Why did we wait until August to make the decision, only allowing roll out in Sept/Oct what kids were back at school. If we'd made the decision in a timely fashion as other countries did we could have had mass vaccination in mid July (before schools broke up), with kids having built up immunity by the time they returned to school in September. As it is we have a double whammy - so kids only being vaccinated now and also a load of kids unable to be vaccinated as they'd had the virus within the last few weeks.

Yet again, we (or rather the government) have taken their eye off the ball.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 20, 2021, 11:25:02 AM
Actually the area which is now really concerning me is vaccination.

It has been clear for some time that vaccine efficacy does wane over time, hence the need for boosters. Yet the booster programme seems shambolic and completely lacks transparency - we keep receiving more information about the proportion of the population single and double jabbed, but we also need to see data on the numbers receiving their boosters, which are supposed to be provided 6 months after the second jab. So we should be seeing the same level of vaccination activity right now and over the past month as we saw in March/April as all those people will be ready for boosters.

The other thing which is again, too little too late, is 12-15 year olds. Why did we wait until August to make the decision, only allowing roll out in Sept/Oct what kids were back at school. If we'd made the decision in a timely fashion as other countries did we could have had mass vaccination in mid July (before schools broke up), with kids having built up immunity by the time they returned to school in September. As it is we have a double whammy - so kids only being vaccinated now and also a load of kids unable to be vaccinated as they'd had the virus within the last few weeks.

Yet again, we (or rather the government) have taken their eye off the ball.

Indeed. I also covered these points in my letter. I'm now 6 months form my last vaccination and not a peep from the NHS. Kwarteng made it sound as if people weren't coming forward to be vaccinated. How can you if you aren't invited and the NHS specifically tells you to wait to hear from them and not to hassle them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on October 20, 2021, 11:30:27 AM
Looking at the BBC news this morning I'm struggling to understand why reintroducing the requirement to use facemasks is such a hot potato: after all, it isn't exact an onerous demand.

Here in Scotland the need to wear them in shops and public transport, and for older kids in secondary school, was never removed - and, anecdotally, compliance with this seems almost universal in my experience.
I think the answer you'll get Gordon is ''It's me english pride, innit''
''I'm a freeee mayn, innit''
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on October 20, 2021, 11:34:04 AM
Indeed. I also covered these points in my letter. I'm now 6 months form my last vaccination and not a peep from the NHS. Kwarteng made it sound as if people weren't coming forward to be vaccinated. How can you if you aren't invited and the NHS specifically tells you to wait to hear from them and not to hassle them.
Kwarteng is a completely useless fuck. Co Author of Britain completely unhinged. Copies of which were the solution to the toilet roll crisis.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on October 20, 2021, 11:52:35 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/19/bolsonaro-coronavirus-brazil-murder-charges-senate-report

Draft report : Ballsupscenario allegedly guilty of crimes against humanity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 20, 2021, 12:42:37 PM
Completely scientifically illiterate non-sense.

Firstly that wouldn't prevent the new more transmissible variant from becoming dominant as the whole point is that for any given amount of viral load the more transmissible variant will have a greater propensity to infect and replicate within the cells of the host and be released to infect others. So you might start with equal proportions but once this goes through the next host you will have greater proportions of the new more transmissible variant, and that effect will compound with each infection, replication within a host and release cycle. Hence you get the new strain becoming dominant.
In a person with functioning innate immunity, mutated virus will be eliminated as effectively as original strain. Therefore if transmitted to such a person, there will be less chance that he will pass it on. So the need is for as many people with effective interferon responses etc as possible so that the mutated strains are cleared. Also this can continue as long as the viral load is low, since the innate system can't cope with high loads. So infection prevention measures need to be in place.

Quote
But it also fails to recognise that the innate and acquired immune systems go hand in hand - if we become infected both will become involved in the immune response. But of course the innate system alone is simply insufficient to deal with any significant infection event and even with the first exposure to the virus the combination of innate and acquired may be insufficient to prevent severe disease or even death.
As I understand it, the innate immunity of a healthy person can cope with a low viral load and for higher loads will be activated while specific antibodies are  evolving and being produced in great enough quantities to deal with the virus.
Quote
The key point about acquired immunity is it makes you much less vulnerable the second (third etc) time you encounter the pathogen.
If the second encounter is with the same pathogen, yes - if the encounter is with a mutated form, it may be less effective.
Quote
So we can allow this to happen naturally, and accept major levels of serious disease and death, or we can short circuit the reponse by kick start acquired immunity in a safe manner using the vaccine, so that when that person encounters the actual pathogen the are less infectious and less likely to get serious disease or die.
I know, however, in normal circumstances this is done before exposure to the pathogen, so as to reduce the risk of immune escape which happens when the virus is encountered during a partial immune response such as between first and second doses of vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 20, 2021, 03:12:13 PM
In a person with functioning innate immunity, mutated virus will be eliminated as effectively as original strain.
But the point is that innate immunity is inefficient at eliminating the virus, hence the need for acquired immunity.

Therefore if transmitted to such a person, there will be less chance that he will pass it on.
He or she - but nonetheless, innate immunity is unlikely to prevent viral replication, expulsion and therefore potential transmissibility in all but the lowest of viral load infections. But the point is that if the virus replicates in the host and is expelled (e.g. through breathing out!!) then the mutant strain is much more likely to infect a new person than the original strain. So the sequence goes as follows:

1. So for one person who becomes infectious having been exposed to both mutant and original strain they may infect four person but only one of those people becomes infected with both strains (call this person a) the other three people (call them people b, c and d) with the new strain only (as it is more transmissible).
2. Those people b, c and d - they infect four additional people all with the mutant strain, while person a infects one person with both strains and three with the mutant strain.

So from a single person infected with both strains we have 16 people infected with the mutant strain and just one infected with the original strain. That is how the mutant becomes dominant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on October 20, 2021, 03:26:15 PM
If the second encounter is with the same pathogen, yes - if the encounter is with a mutated form, it may be less effective.
Not necessarily - it depends on the nature of the mutation and the nature of the acquired immunity (whether natural or via vaccine). The reason why the vaccine has targeted the spike protein is because it is key to transmissibility and therefore any mutations that remain viable (i.e. are still able to be transmitted) are likely to retain the spike protein in a broadly similar configuration and so will be similarly recognised by the acquired immunity.

Any mutation which radically changes the configuration of the spike protein will render that protein unable to bind to host cells and cause infection. There have probably been countless mutations of this nature, but we don't know about them because they render the virus non transmissible, or radically less transmissible meaning the mutation disappears in the reverse manner of a more transmissible mutation becoming dominant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 20, 2021, 03:53:51 PM

Morocco suspends flights to UK, Germany, and the Netherlands

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58981507
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on October 22, 2021, 11:25:54 AM
More Tory idiocy

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/22/tory-minister-says-face-masks-should-not-become-a-sign-of-virtue
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on October 22, 2021, 11:52:26 AM
And another fucking idiot

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/lifestyle/other/jacob-rees-mogg-roasted-for-suggestion-tories-don-t-need-masks-in-commons-because-they-know-each-other/ar-AAPNqlo?ocid=msedgntp
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 22, 2021, 01:00:57 PM
Interesting article on the various forces at play on our behaviour during a pandemic:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/22/england-covid-ethics-personal-responsibility

It still raises a very big question in my mind. How in all conscience can any one support this bunch of idiots who are at the very least guilty of manslaughter. Or perhaps more accurately culpable homicide, which Scotland does have as a judgement I believe.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 22, 2021, 07:46:31 PM
This is the worst I've ever seen this map. I think it might be time to do something...

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 23, 2021, 11:38:35 AM
But the point is that innate immunity is inefficient at eliminating the virus, hence the need for acquired immunity.
He or she - but nonetheless, innate immunity is unlikely to prevent viral replication, expulsion and therefore potential transmissibility in all but the lowest of viral load infections. But the point is that if the virus replicates in the host and is expelled (e.g. through breathing out!!) then the mutant strain is much more likely to infect a new person than the original strain. So the sequence goes as follows:

1. So for one person who becomes infectious having been exposed to both mutant and original strain they may infect four person but only one of those people becomes infected with both strains (call this person a) the other three people (call them people b, c and d) with the new strain only (as it is more transmissible).
2. Those people b, c and d - they infect four additional people all with the mutant strain, while person a infects one person with both strains and three with the mutant strain.

So from a single person infected with both strains we have 16 people infected with the mutant strain and just one infected with the original strain. That is how the mutant becomes dominant.
I agree with this (except that early in the pandemic the innate immunity of children was able to cope with the virus - perhaps not preventing transmission though), but if we consider the Wuhan lockdown, it's interesting that they managed to prevent the virus spreading beyond the city except to other countries where there was no lockdown.

If stringent infection prevention measures are adhered to, the infection rate could be kept low enough to suppress more infectious variants. GVB's argument is that if vaccination levels get too high, more people will have what he calls sub-optimal antibodies which fitter variants will be able to evade. This counterbalances the effect of infection prevention measures and they will be more likely to become dominant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on October 23, 2021, 11:50:51 AM
I agree with this (except that early in the pandemic the innate immunity of children was able to cope with the virus - perhaps not preventing transmission though), but if we consider the Wuhan lockdown, it's interesting that they managed to prevent the virus spreading beyond the city except to other countries where there was no lockdown.

If stringent infection prevention measures are adhered to, the infection rate could be kept low enough to suppress more infectious variants. GVB's argument is that if vaccination levels get too high, more people will have what he calls sub-optimal antibodies which fitter variants will be able to evade. This counterbalances the effect of infection prevention measures and they will be more likely to become dominant.

The original Wuhan variant was much less transmissible than Delta of course and measures which worked for Alpha don't seem to work for Delta. One difference has been the spread in households where isolation was fairly effective with the earlier variants but not so for Delta.

https://time.com/6097341/china-delta-covid19-fujian/ (https://time.com/6097341/china-delta-covid19-fujian/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on October 23, 2021, 03:36:15 PM
...
If stringent infection prevention measures are adhered to, the infection rate could be kept low enough to suppress more infectious variants. GVB's argument is that if vaccination levels get too high, more people will have what he calls sub-optimal antibodies which fitter variants will be able to evade. This counterbalances the effect of infection prevention measures and they will be more likely to become dominant.

If GVB wants to use quarantines/lockdowns to contain the virus rather than vaccines, it is theoretically possible but:

1) No governments will continue such controls for the length of time needed
2) It is much too late and virus can now be considered endemic world wide. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on October 23, 2021, 03:48:58 PM
The original Wuhan variant was much less transmissible than Delta of course and measures which worked for Alpha don't seem to work for Delta. One difference has been the spread in households where isolation was fairly effective with the earlier variants but not so for Delta.

https://time.com/6097341/china-delta-covid19-fujian/ (https://time.com/6097341/china-delta-covid19-fujian/)

That is because for a given viral load the chances of becoming infected with delta are far higher, by 4 to 5 times, than with alpha

Also, AIU, the vaccine induced antibodies are just as effective against both variants in terms of the proportion of virus particles eliminated but are less effective at preventing infection just because the delta variant is better at breaking into host cells. Both variants carry the spike proteins for which the vaccines have been designed.

There was an article in Nature that described the changes carried by delta and why they work better, but don't have the ref. to hand.
   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 23, 2021, 06:01:13 PM
If GVB wants to use quarantines/lockdowns to contain the virus rather than vaccines, it is theoretically possible but:

1) No governments will continue such controls for the length of time needed
2) It is much too late and virus can now be considered endemic world wide.
China has used lockdowns and quarantines to successfully control the virus. But they have also vaccinated a billion, apparently without the effects predicted by GVB?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on October 23, 2021, 06:09:44 PM
That is because for a given viral load the chances of becoming infected with delta are far higher, by 4 to 5 times, than with alpha

Also, AIU, the vaccine induced antibodies are just as effective against both variants in terms of the proportion of virus particles eliminated but are less effective at preventing infection just because the delta variant is better at breaking into host cells. Both variants carry the spike proteins for which the vaccines have been designed.

There was an article in Nature that described the changes carried by delta and why they work better, but don't have the ref. to hand.
   
That makes sense: so they select for more infectious virus, while preventing serious disease. Do you know whether antibodies from natural (symptomatic) infection are better at preventing infection? Also do you know if the interferon response is better (is the virus less able to disrupt it) after vaccination?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on October 24, 2021, 12:32:47 PM
Nation wearily prepares for lockdown as the government categorically rules it out. (Newsthump)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on October 24, 2021, 02:25:01 PM
That is because for a given viral load the chances of becoming infected with delta are far higher, by 4 to 5 times, than with alpha

Also, AIU, the vaccine induced antibodies are just as effective against both variants in terms of the proportion of virus particles eliminated but are less effective at preventing infection just because the delta variant is better at breaking into host cells. Both variants carry the spike proteins for which the vaccines have been designed.

There was an article in Nature that described the changes carried by delta and why they work better, but don't have the ref. to hand.
   

Yes indeed. I was just attempting to point out that suggesting quarantine and lockdowns as China did initially could control the spread of Delta might not be effective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on October 24, 2021, 03:30:09 PM
That makes sense: so they select for more infectious virus, while preventing serious disease.

No, they don't select for "more infectious virus". As you agreed earlier, the delta variant will be "dominant" in all cases. The proportion of delta cases to alpha is not changed by vaccination.

Quote
Do you know whether antibodies from natural (symptomatic) infection are better at preventing infection?

Not sure what you mean here - preventing infection of the host or passing on the infection. But this sounds like one of GVB's un-evidenced claims. It is not only the possibility of occurrence that needs to considered but the probabilities and resulting statistics.

Quote
Also do you know if the interferon response is better (is the virus less able to disrupt it) after vaccination?

I don't know, but you could try: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-021-00526-x
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ekim on October 24, 2021, 05:29:30 PM
Nation wearily prepares for lockdown as the government categorically rules it out. (Newsthump)

Whatever went wrong?  :) ............... https://film.britishcouncil.org/resources/film-archive/health-of-a-nation
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 27, 2021, 11:10:32 AM
Masks compulsory for everyone in House of Commons except MPs.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/26/masks-to-be-mandatory-again-for-parliamentary-staff-but-not-mps-covid?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1635276318
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on November 07, 2021, 05:56:45 PM
So went for our Booster vaccination today, but had to drive over to Chichester (20 miles) to get it as everywhere in our immediate vicinity is completely booked up.

So when we got to the vaccination centre there were at least a dozen security guards there. When I enquired why I was told it was due to anti-vaxxers (or twats as I like to call them) having targeted the centre a week or so ago. So not only do we have the huge cost of the vaccination programme we now have to pay for security on top of that.

What a fucking country.

PS Got the boosters.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 12, 2021, 10:17:12 AM
What a dangerous prick Johnson is!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 13, 2021, 02:43:52 PM
JfC!
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/matt-hancock-considering-100000-deal-25449409
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on November 13, 2021, 05:05:53 PM
JfC!
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/matt-hancock-considering-100000-deal-25449409
I think we can see this will be mills and Boon on his affair and short on his decision on discharging people into care homes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on November 13, 2021, 05:08:42 PM
JfC!
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/matt-hancock-considering-100000-deal-25449409
I've got a good title for his sequel. ''20 years in HMP Belmarsh.''
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dicky Underpants on November 16, 2021, 05:13:10 PM
Indeed. I also covered these points in my letter. I'm now 6 months form my last vaccination and not a peep from the NHS. Kwarteng made it sound as if people weren't coming forward to be vaccinated. How can you if you aren't invited and the NHS specifically tells you to wait to hear from them and not to hassle them.

There seems to be a huge variability here. I for instance received my booster jab invitation letter 6 months and one day after my second vaccination. Other friends of mine in the SW eligible for boosters have not heard a thing. One friend was informed two weeks before a 6 month interval, whereas his partner (who uses the same medical practice) has still not heard 3 weeks after the 6 month period.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on November 16, 2021, 07:08:19 PM
There seems to be a huge variability here. I for instance received my booster jab invitation letter 6 months and one day after my second vaccination. Other friends of mine in the SW eligible for boosters have not heard a thing. One friend was informed two weeks before a 6 month interval, whereas his partner (who uses the same medical practice) has still not heard 3 weeks after the 6 month period.

It does seem variable, but you can book online without being invited to now if eligible. I have heard nothing from NHS but am booked in for exactly 182 days after my second jab. I've  heard nothing from my GPs throughout this - other than a text saying not to contact them and ask about the boosters.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on November 16, 2021, 07:40:35 PM
It does seem variable, but you can book online without being invited to now if eligible. I have heard nothing from NHS but am booked in for exactly 182 days after my second jab. I've  heard nothing from my GPs throughout this - other than a text saying not to contact them and ask about the boosters.
Good to hear, but we are really playing catch up.

I became eligible for my booster a few weeks ago and could even book until a few days after the eligibility period started. The earliest I could get my booster was one week after I became eligible.

While this might sound trivial, moving everything forward by a week can help the overall position markedly as immunity is really beginning to wane as we get to 6 months so any additional days of waiting is additional time for someone to catch, spread the virus and for either of those people to get ill, long covid etc.

I really don't understand how they managed to take their eye off the ball so badly with boosters, and with 12-15 year old, having been pretty hot off the mark back in the early part of the year with first/second jabs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: BeRational on November 16, 2021, 09:38:17 PM
I had the virus along with my wife and daughter last week.

We are all double jabbed which I assume meant that whilst we felt pretty unwell,  it just felt like flu.
Flu of course is pretty bad anyway!

Looking forward to getting the third jab in 4 weeks as well.

I think the vaccine is very good as I have asthma and expected it to affect me more than it did.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on November 16, 2021, 10:49:53 PM
Got an invitation to book a booster jab today, did so online, and am getting boosted tomorrow morning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on November 17, 2021, 07:39:34 AM
Good to hear, but we are really playing catch up.

I became eligible for my booster a few weeks ago and could even book until a few days after the eligibility period started. The earliest I could get my booster was one week after I became eligible.

While this might sound trivial, moving everything forward by a week can help the overall position markedly as immunity is really beginning to wane as we get to 6 months so any additional days of waiting is additional time for someone to catch, spread the virus and for either of those people to get ill, long covid etc.

I really don't understand how they managed to take their eye off the ball so badly with boosters, and with 12-15 year old, having been pretty hot off the mark back in the early part of the year with first/second jabs.

Absolutely. There was lots of hype pre booster program about how the NHS was ready to roll with pharmacies lined up to fill the gap of vaccination centres that had closed down then when boosters were approved it seemed to come as a surprise. Not sure who to blame but the booster roll out has been poorly handled.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on November 18, 2021, 01:11:42 PM



https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-59329996

*********
Covid-19 cases in Germany have reached record highs, with daily infections exceeding 65,000 for the first time during the entire pandemic and booster jabs now recommended for all adults

*********
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 19, 2021, 10:42:34 AM
Austria back into full lockdown


https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/austria-reimposes-full-lockdown-makes-vaccination-compulsory-2021-11-19/?taid=61977cb1f8fc350001fa7a10&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on November 24, 2021, 04:24:16 PM
Meanwhile, Stateside the bollocks and general lunacy goes on and on:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/nov/23/florida-doctors-covid-coronavirus-bruce-boros?

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on November 24, 2021, 04:46:49 PM
Meanwhile, Stateside the bollocks and general lunacy goes on and on:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/nov/23/florida-doctors-covid-coronavirus-bruce-boros?

How did these people ever become doctors in the first place? Idiots!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 25, 2021, 11:40:25 AM

New variant

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/24/scientists-warn-of-new-covid-variant-with-high-number-of-mutations?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1637788526-1
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 27, 2021, 03:18:33 PM

And Omicron in UK

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/27/two-cases-of-omicron-covid-variant-identified-in-uk?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1638022870
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 27, 2021, 06:52:02 PM
And Omicron in UK

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/27/two-cases-of-omicron-covid-variant-identified-in-uk?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1638022870

Totally predictable. We're very good at shutting the stable door.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SweetPea on November 27, 2021, 08:46:43 PM
I wondered where the strange name "Omicron" had come from, then my nephew informed me of this:

A short clip from Futurama:  https://odysee.com/@MIGMAG:3/Omicron-Persei-8--Futurama-Predicting-the-Future_360p:6 

How can we take some of these scientists seriously if they cannot think of a different name for something they tell us is very worrying?! Smh...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on November 27, 2021, 09:33:37 PM
I am assuming this is meant to be a joke.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Stranger on November 28, 2021, 08:13:56 AM
I wondered where the strange name "Omicron" had come from, then my nephew informed me of this:

A short clip from Futurama:  https://odysee.com/@MIGMAG:3/Omicron-Persei-8--Futurama-Predicting-the-Future_360p:6 

How can we take some of these scientists seriously if they cannot think of a different name for something they tell us is very worrying?! Smh...

This is a joke, is it? I mean you do know that omicron is a letter in the Greek alphabet, just like the other variant names?

Although the variants that have been in the news are the first four letters of the alphabet (alpha, beta, gamma, delta), there have been others that were designated. They did miss out nu (too easily confused with 'new') and xi, (a common name, of the Chinese president in particular).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 28, 2021, 09:27:48 AM
This is a joke, is it? I mean you do know that omicron is a letter in the Greek alphabet, just like the other variant names?

Although the variants that have been in the news are the first four letters of the alphabet (alpha, beta, gamma, delta), there have been others that were designated. They did miss out nu (too easily confused with 'new') and xi, (a common name, of the Chinese president in particular).
Mmmm pi
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 29, 2021, 08:27:34 AM
6 cases of omicron in Scotland



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-59457332
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on November 29, 2021, 12:07:51 PM
No, they don't select for "more infectious virus". As you agreed earlier, the delta variant will be "dominant" in all cases. The proportion of delta cases to alpha is not changed by vaccination.
When asked about this in a recent Q&A presentation, Geert said that when an unvaccinated person gets symptomatically infected with covid he/she will at best completely isolate and at worst spend less time around other people until they are better, thus will tend to spread the virus only while pre-symptomatic. If a vaccinated person is less likely to be symptomatic when infected, they won't be so aware of the infection and so will be more likely to spread it to others. So he says mass vaccination increased the speed at which delta became most prevalent. Allowing the virus to become endemic naturally doesn't mean more infectious variants won't become dominant over decades or centuries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 30, 2021, 06:42:43 AM
Oh look it's Desmond Swayne


https://uk.news.yahoo.com/tory-mp-desmond-swayne-says-mask-advice-is-mumbo-jumbo-180812063.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on November 30, 2021, 12:14:28 PM
A long and incredibly sad read:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/nov/30/life-tragic-death-john-eyers-fitness-fanatic-who-refused-covid-vaccine?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on December 02, 2021, 11:59:44 AM
Anybody up for the latest government initiative - Schrodingers Christmas Party.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 02, 2021, 12:17:35 PM
One rule for us, no rules for them


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59505975
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on December 02, 2021, 04:25:56 PM
I'm sure I'm not the only person wondering if the UK governments insistence that there is no need to cancel Xmas parties may well backfire on them: must get some popcorn in!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 04, 2021, 08:26:33 AM
This
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on December 04, 2021, 11:20:26 AM
When asked about this in a recent Q&A presentation, Geert said that when an unvaccinated person gets symptomatically infected with covid he/she will at best completely isolate and at worst spend less time around other people until they are better, thus will tend to spread the virus only while pre-symptomatic. If a vaccinated person is less likely to be symptomatic when infected, they won't be so aware of the infection and so will be more likely to spread it to others. So he says mass vaccination increased the speed at which delta became most prevalent. Allowing the virus to become endemic naturally doesn't mean more infectious variants won't become dominant over decades or centuries.
Really? Does he provide any figures demonstrating this?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on December 04, 2021, 02:46:09 PM
A long and incredibly sad read:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/nov/30/life-tragic-death-john-eyers-fitness-fanatic-who-refused-covid-vaccine?
Stupid bastard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on December 05, 2021, 03:22:07 PM
Blessed are the Greeks:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59474808
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on December 05, 2021, 05:49:50 PM
Good for Greece.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on December 07, 2021, 11:56:06 AM
Good for Greece.
I can't agree with you I'm afraid. What if someone demanded that you give blood and fined you £100 a month if you didn't? A fundamental principal of medicine is patient autonomy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 07, 2021, 12:05:50 PM
What if someone demanded that you give blood and fined you £100 a month if you didn't?
Completely different situation.

A fundamental principal of medicine is patient autonomy.
Indeed, but there have always been situations where public health considerations have been considered to trump individual autonomy. So the argument isn't whether public health considerations can over-ride individual autonomy - that seems to be a pretty settled view in medical ethics. This issue is whether the public health considerations SHOULD over-ride individual autonomy in this particular situation.

Personally I'm not sure I'd go as far as requiring people to have the vaccination. However I have no issue to requiring people to demonstrate they have had the vaccination (or cannot on medical grounds) in order to be able to access services, public events etc etc. In which case you are not required to have the vaccination, but if you refuse to do so you cannot expect to be permitted access public events/transport etc in the same manner as those who have had the vaccine and have reduced their risk to others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 07, 2021, 12:11:48 PM
Completely different situation.
It's a medical procedure that saves other people's lives. So is vaccination. It's not completely different is it.
Quote
Indeed, but there have always been situations where public health considerations have been considered to trump individual autonomy. So the argument isn't whether public health considerations can over-ride individual autonomy - that seems to be a pretty settled view in medical ethics. This issue is whether the public health considerations SHOULD over-ride individual autonomy in this particular situation.

Personally I'm not sure I'd go as far as requiring people to have the vaccination. However I have no issue to requiring people to demonstrate they have had the vaccination (or cannot on medical grounds) in order to be able to access services, public spaces etc etc. In which case you are not required to have the vaccination, but if you refuse to do so you cannot expect to be permitted access public events/transport etc in the same manner as those who have had the vaccine and have reduced their risk to others.
I think we are in agreement on this point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 07, 2021, 12:16:02 PM
It's a medical procedure that saves other people's lives.
It is, because by not donating blood you do not personally render yourself a greater risk to others. By contrast by not having the vaccine you do render yourself a greater risk to others.

It isn't the notion that both are medical procedures - the point is about risk/benefit. Not giving blood does not personally convey a risk to others, but giving blood may convey a benefit. Not having the vaccine does personally convey a risk to others.

Vaccination is a public health issue, the donation of blood isn't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 07, 2021, 12:28:18 PM
It is
You saifd it was completely different. I gave you two aspects in which it isa the same. So it's not completely different. End of argument.

because by not donating blood you do not personally render yourself a greater risk to others

If blood supplies are short, it puts people's lives at risk. If you refuse to donate blood, you are contributing to the risk (I say that as somebody who hasn't donated blood for many years).

Quote
Vaccination is a public health issue, the donation of blood isn't.
I'd say it is. Similarly organ donation, or the lack of it.

I think the ethics behind fining people for not undergoing a medical procedure are similar in both cases. I think I am opposed. However, if an unvaccinated person walks into a room full of people, they are putting those people at a higher risk than a vaccinated person in a way that a non blood donor is not. Therefore, it is reasonable to put restrictions on vaccinated people, in that sense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on December 07, 2021, 12:29:53 PM
I can't agree with you I'm afraid. What if someone demanded that you give blood and fined you £100 a month if you didn't? A fundamental principal of medicine is patient autonomy.

It is a difficult one, although your comparison is spurious.

I was reading an article earlier about someone who was immuno-supressed and had shielded throughout the time she was supposed to and was double vaccinated and died after shielding ended due to her following govt advice that shielding was no longer necessary. This completely ignored the fact that some drugs used for rheumatoid arthritis render the vaccine much less effective in some cases. This woman was one such case.

Where are her rights in all this? If others are not getting vaccinated then this woman and people like her will have to remain forever shielding and isolated. What about the principle of being able to live your life?

If there was any proof for any of the many bizarre claims about the vaccines then I might have sympathy for those choosing not to get vaccinated as it stands I have precious little.

ICU's are full of largely unvaccinated patients who are still dying, worse than that they are placing an intolerable burden on the NHS and stopping other people getting treatment they desperately need for other conditions. I'm afraid the stupidity, ignorance and willingness to listen to some bloke on the internet rather than medically qualified specialists by some people in this country is quite frankly baffling and actually threatening other people's lives.

Unless they come to their senses we may have no other choice but to insist on mandatory vaccination. How long do we want this pandemic to go on for?

Let me be clear I do not want mandatory vaccination, but I do think the majority have a right to a life free from the fear of people infecting us as much as is possible, or indeed providing fertile ground for further mutations.

Finally patient autonomy is defined as follows:

 the right of competent adults to make informed decisions about their own medical care.

Currently the adults I have heard talking about not taking the vaccination have not sounded competent and therefore they are not making informed decisions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 07, 2021, 12:33:13 PM
You saifd it was completely different. I gave you two aspects in which it isa the same. So it's not completely different. End of argument.

because by not donating blood you do not personally render yourself a greater risk to others

If blood supplies are short, it puts people's lives at risk. If you refuse to donate blood, you are contributing to the risk (I say that as somebody who hasn't donated blood for many years).
I'd say it is. Similarly organ donation, or the lack of it.
Nope they are different.

A non blood donor isn't a specific risk to the public, a non vaccinated person is a specific risk to the public as they carry a greater risk or transmitting an infectious disease.

The point about blood availability is different - it is about healthcare resource availability not the risk that a specific person poses to another person.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on December 07, 2021, 01:06:13 PM
Nope they are different.

A non blood donor isn't a specific risk to the public, a non vaccinated person is a specific risk to the public as they carry a greater risk or transmitting an infectious disease.
I recall seeing a study that demonstrated this, so I won't question it. But don't forget a vaccinated person may transmit as well. So should they also be fined? Say half the amount? I think it's fine to restrict unvaccinated people, if the evidence shows they transmit more. But only fine someone if they deliberately attempt to transmit the virus. And also, people who recover from symptomatic infection will have immunity too, so I'm guessing they will transmit less.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 07, 2021, 01:40:52 PM
I recall seeing a study that demonstrated this, so I won't question it.
The vaccine has been shown to be effective in reducing transmission.

But don't forget a vaccinated person may transmit as well.
But the likelihood is reduced if you have the vaccine.

So should they also be fined? Say half the amount?
No - because the person who takes the responsible decision to gat vaccinated has taken the option to reduce the risk of transmission as far as possible through vaccination. The person who refuses to be vaccinated has deliberated taken a choice not to reduce that risk. That choice should not be consequence free if the deliberate choice impacts on the health of others.

I think it's fine to restrict unvaccinated people, if the evidence shows they transmit more.
The evidence is clear that vaccination reduces transmissibility of the virus.

But only fine someone if they deliberately attempt to transmit the virus.
Isn't refusing to get the vaccine a deliberate action - I think so, so anyone who has refused to get the vaccine and places themselves in situations where they may be infectious to others is in effect taking a deliberate decision to increase the risk to others. I doubt they actually want to infect people but they cannot absolve themselves of their responsibilities if they refuse to get vaccinated.

And also, people who recover from symptomatic infection will have immunity too, so I'm guessing they will transmit less.
That's true - but that shouldn't remove an obligation to be vaccinated, because immunity, whether natural or through vaccination doesn't last forever.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on December 07, 2021, 04:44:54 PM
I think as many as possible should be vaccinated, everyone should be encouraged to take it. Vaccines work. I feel deeply uncomfortable with vaccine passports and forced vaccinations though. If those of us who have taken the vaccine trust it (after all it is a good vaccine, although imperfect) then it shouldn't matter if the person next to us is unvaccinated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 07, 2021, 05:06:21 PM
I think as many as possible should be vaccinated, everyone should be encouraged to take it.
Agreed.

Vaccines work


I feel deeply uncomfortable with vaccine passports and forced vaccinations though.
There is a major difference between being required to demonstrate that you have been vaccinated (or aren't able to be on medical grounds) in order to be able to travel or attend an event and being forced to be vaccinated.

If those of us who have taken the vaccine trust it (after all it is a good vaccine, although imperfect) then it shouldn't matter if the person next to us is unvaccinated.
It should because not all people are able to have the vaccine and why should they be at increased risk because some people who can get the vaccine selfishly chose not to do so. And significantly imparting community transmission, including to those who are vulnerable, can only be majorly impaired if we get sufficient people with immunity (whether natural or via vaccines) to attain so-called herd immunity. While millions of people (e.g. in the UK) refuse to be vaccinated, we may never reach that point and the people most impacted will be those unvaccinated (well that's their own fault, except for the costs etc in dealing with their hospitalisation), but also the most vulnerable whose immunity is impaired. Not much good telling that person that's it's OK that the person next to them on the tube has refused to have a vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on December 07, 2021, 05:36:49 PM
It's the segregation of people I dislike. Yes, they may be stupid, selfish and many other things to boot, but we don't do this for anything else. We always knew there was going to be a section of society who for varying reasons wouldn't take that vaccine, yet it was still supposed to be our route out. In the same way restrictions applied to everybody so should reopenning society.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 07, 2021, 05:45:36 PM
It's the segregation of people I dislike.
So do I - specifically people who are particularly vulnerable who feel they have to segregate themselves from many aspects of society as they are very concerned about getting the virus. I have rather more concern for those people than selfish people who refuse to get the vaccine. In my view if vax-refusniks get segregated from certain aspects of society that's their own fault. If vulnerable people do then it is the fault of others, most notably those irresponsibly not following covid advise and specifically refusing vaccines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 07, 2021, 06:53:51 PM
In the same way restrictions applied to everybody so should reopenning society.
But it doesn't does it - it doesn't apply equally to people who are vulnerable through no fault of their own. In order to support those people then if people who refuse vaccines find that reopening of society doesn't apply equally to them, then so be it - their look-out and their choice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 07, 2021, 09:38:51 PM
UK Govt laughing at you, and dead and dying family members

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-gavin-williamson-hosted-party-25641812
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 07, 2021, 09:42:11 PM
Ever get the feeling you've been had

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1468285311415377932?t=I7dmHBo_atXoN78AUyNrIg&s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on December 08, 2021, 09:17:20 AM
Ad_O and Prof Davey,

What about flu. Do we vaccinate everyone to protect immunosuppressed people who can't be vaccinated?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 08, 2021, 09:23:27 AM
Ad_O and Prof Davey,

What about flu. Do we vaccinate everyone to protect immunosuppressed people who can't be vaccinated?
Flu isn't as dangerous as covid ... by a long way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 08, 2021, 09:39:18 AM
The magnificent Susie Dent
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on December 08, 2021, 09:41:59 AM
Ad_O and Prof Davey,

What about flu. Do we vaccinate everyone to protect immunosuppressed people who can't be vaccinated?

You are making the mistake of assuming equivalence. Flu and Covid 19 are not equivalent:

http://www.health.org.uk/publications/long-reads/one-year-on-three-myths-about-COVID-19-that-the-data-proved-wrong?

The risk from Covid to all of us is significantly higher than from flu, so different measures are appropriate. We are just arguing over what those measures should be.

Comparisons with flu are just distraction and deflection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 08, 2021, 09:51:16 AM
Nope they are different.
Now you are moving the goalposts. You previously said they are completely different. I suppose it is the closest we'll ever get to you conceding the point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 08, 2021, 09:57:43 AM
One of my colleagues at work had the misfortune to be in South Africa when it got red listed. He is now incarcerated in HMP Edinburgh Airport Holiday Inn Express.

What I find interesting is that it is costing him about £200 a night, which, in most parts of the UK (perhaps not Edinburgh) will get you a reasonably nice room and reasonably good food. The food they are being provided could be described as adequate but that would be a lie. They are relying on food parcels.

Somebody here is making a big fat profit out of this. I wonder who.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 08, 2021, 10:11:14 AM
One of my colleagues at work had the misfortune to be in South Africa when it got red listed. He is now incarcerated in HMP Edinburgh Airport Holiday Inn Express.

What I find interesting is that it is costing him about £200 a night, which, in most parts of the UK (perhaps not Edinburgh) will get you a reasonably nice room and reasonably good food. The food they are being provided could be described as adequate but that would be a lie. They are relying on food parcels.

Somebody here is making a big fat profit out of this. I wonder who.
You can get a room at the Holiday Inn just along from the airport at the zoo tonight for £116
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 08, 2021, 10:15:31 AM
Now you are moving the goalposts. You previously said they are completely different. I suppose it is the closest we'll ever get to you conceding the point.
Ok - I will reiterate - they are completely different.

A non blood donor poses no risk to anyone and donating blood does not mitigate that risk, as there is no risk. A non vaccinated person potentially does pose a serious risk to other people in the population and being vaccinated does mitigate that risk as there is a risk.

They are completely different issues. And yes vaccination against a serious infectious disease is a public health issue and blood donation is not a public health issue - go check on the definition of public health.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 08, 2021, 10:16:51 AM
You are making the mistake of assuming equivalence. Flu and Covid 19 are not equivalent:

http://www.health.org.uk/publications/long-reads/one-year-on-three-myths-about-COVID-19-that-the-data-proved-wrong?

The risk from Covid to all of us is significantly higher than from flu, so different measures are appropriate. We are just arguing over what those measures should be.

Comparisons with flu are just distraction and deflection.
Yup and I was also going to post that link.

In terms of years lost through death covid is about six times more deadly than flu.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 08, 2021, 10:35:48 AM
Ok - I will reiterate - they are completely different.
And I pointed out two ways in which they are the same. Therefore your assertion is incorrect.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 08, 2021, 10:45:39 AM
And I pointed out two ways in which they are the same. Therefore your assertion is incorrect.
How can they be similar.

A blood donor may help someone with a pre-existing medical issue - they aren't the cause of that issue.

A non vaccinated person who infects others is the cause of those people's medical issue.

They are entirely different.

The only similarity is that they relate to medical issues (but then so do all sorts of things) - other than that they are completely different and indeed diametrically opposite - one is about creating a risk to others, the other is about creating a solution to a pre-existing risk or medical problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on December 08, 2021, 11:32:35 AM
But it doesn't does it - it doesn't apply equally to people who are vulnerable through no fault of their own. In order to support those people then if people who refuse vaccines find that reopening of society doesn't apply equally to them, then so be it - their look-out and their choice.

I don't disagree that this is a problem but the pandemic has gone on for nearly two years now. We're all getting tired of it. I think we need to learn to live with this now. We have a vaccine which is effective and which can be modified, much like we do with influenza.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 08, 2021, 11:55:23 AM
I don't disagree that this is a problem but the pandemic has gone on for nearly two years now. We're all getting tired of it. I think we need to learn to live with this now. We have a vaccine which is effective and which can be modified, much like we do with influenza.
I agree - and that's why we need to go a little further to encourage people to get vaccinated.

We need to have higher vaccination levels that are regularly boosted with a vaccine that might be adapted to a new variant. Only if we do that can we get back to near normality. And the road block to that are those selfish people who refuse to be vaccinated. I'm not really in favour of making it unlawful not to be vaccinated, and I'm not sure that would work. But I see no reason why people who selfishly refuse to protect others by getting vaccinated should be able to live their lives in exactly the same manner as those who have taken the responsible approach to mitigating risk by getting vaccinated.

And frankly I care more about the 'rights' of those who are vulnerable to be able to live a near normal life than the rights of those that refuse vaccines and are therefore part of the problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on December 08, 2021, 12:21:05 PM
I can't agree with you I'm afraid. What if someone demanded that you give blood and fined you £100 a month if you didn't? A fundamental principal of medicine is patient autonomy.
What a bloody stupid analogy. One is not endangering other people by not giving blood.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 08, 2021, 12:28:35 PM
How can they be similar.
I was refuting your claim that they are completely different, not making any claim about their similarity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 08, 2021, 01:03:01 PM
... not making any claim about their similarity.
Really, and there was me thinking that your previous posts were a claim of similarly, e.g. reply 4378:

And I pointed out two ways in which they are the same.

And reply 4762

I gave you two aspects in which it isa the same.

Which both relate to your first intervention on the matter (reply 4760).

Perhaps you'd like to explain the difference between a claim that things are similar and a claim that things are the same.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 08, 2021, 01:23:47 PM
What a bloody stupid analogy. One is not endangering other people by not giving blood.
Quite - someone not giving blood isn't directly causally responsible for someone else becoming ill. Someone not being vaccinated and then infecting someone else is a direct causal for that person becoming ill. The two are entirely different.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on December 08, 2021, 02:14:21 PM
That's true - but that shouldn't remove an obligation to be vaccinated, because immunity, whether natural or through vaccination doesn't last forever.
As I understand it, most peoples' immune system has some natural (innate) antibodies and NK cells. Higher quantities when young. These can prevent symptomatic infection, and are as effective if not more so than vaccine-induced adaptive antibodies and T cells. What I think may be missing from this debate is the ability of a person to utilize his innate immunity. Assuming the memory B-cells from which the innate antibodies arise (google B1 memory cells) hang out in the lymph nodes, there will be problems if someone has poor lymph drainage, for example from the head and neck, or the chest, because that person won't be able to utilize his full quota of innate immunity.
So just as one person might rely on repeated booster shots to give lasting immunity, another person, who might do yoga stretches daily or have regular massages, might be repeatedly exposed to the virus but his innate immune system is healthy enough to deal with it each time.
Also, if a person becomes symptomatically sick and recovers, they will usually develop memory cells which, on re-exposure years down the line, can then produce large quantities of specific antibodies in a short time, thus reducing disease severity.
So there is no need to force everyone to be vaccinated.

And there are other factors that influence whether or not exposure leads to infection. Poor dental hygiene for example has been linked with increased severity of Covid illness. Then there are things such as poor diet, and chronic stress, which lead to suppression of the immune system.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 08, 2021, 02:29:09 PM
As I understand it, most peoples' immune system has some natural (innate) antibodies and NK cells. Higher quantities when young. These can prevent symptomatic infection, and are as effective if not more so than vaccine-induced adaptive antibodies and T cells. What I think may be missing from this debate is the ability of a person to utilize his innate immunity. Assuming the memory B-cells from which the innate antibodies arise (google B1 memory cells) hang out in the lymph nodes, there will be problems if someone has poor lymph drainage, for example from the head and neck, or the chest, because that person won't be able to utilize his full quota of innate immunity.
So just as one person might rely on repeated booster shots to give lasting immunity, another person, who might do yoga stretches daily or have regular massages, might be repeatedly exposed to the virus but his innate immune system is healthy enough to deal with it each time.
Also, if a person becomes symptomatically sick and recovers, they will usually develop memory cells which, on re-exposure years down the line, can then produce large quantities of specific antibodies in a short time, thus reducing disease severity.
So there is no need to force everyone to be vaccinated.

And there are other factors that influence whether or not exposure leads to infection. Poor dental hygiene for example has been linked with increased severity of Covid illness. Then there are things such as poor diet, and chronic stress, which lead to suppression of the immune system.
You are just repeating yourself Spud, and your arguments are no more compelling than they were previously.

One of the major points about vaccination is that it ensures that when someone is exposed to the virus that their immune system is already primed. This has a number of benefits.

First, of course, it makes the infection likely to be less serious, so less chance of hospitalisation and death.

But also it make it more difficult for the virus to replicate and reduces viral shedding and therefore the likelihood for others to become infected.

Thirdly with less infection and less serious infection there is a reduction in the number of viral replication events, each of which may result in a mutation. The fewer mutations the less likelihood of a new variant of concern arising that may evade immunity (whether natural or vaccine-induced).

In every respect vaccination is good and more vaccination is better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on December 08, 2021, 04:13:17 PM
And Stratton is gone. Good.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59584736

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 08, 2021, 04:15:04 PM
And Stratton is gone. Good.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59584736
And yet the lying incompetent racist thug PM remains.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on December 08, 2021, 04:19:02 PM
And yet the lying incompetent racist thug PM remains.

I can only echo Ant & Dec (who have shot up in my estimation): "For Now"
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on December 08, 2021, 06:00:04 PM
I'm trying to look on the bright side: with any luck Boris the Liar will end up destroying his party, and I'll be happy to dance on it's grave.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 08, 2021, 09:05:11 PM
Meanwhile in Finland


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59577371
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 08, 2021, 09:15:01 PM
Cold War Steve
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 09, 2021, 12:52:30 PM
Really, and there was me thinking that your previous posts were a claim of similarly, e.g. reply 4378:
Saying two things are not completely different is not the same as saying they are similar. It's a difference of degree. I found a couple of characteristics they have in common, which refutes your claim that they are completely different. I'm refuting your claim, not making a claim of my own, and even if I were and my claim turned out to be false, it would not alter the fact that your claim is refuted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 09, 2021, 12:54:28 PM
And Stratton is gone. Good.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59584736

I don't see anything good about it. She's lost her job for a very minor point but all the people who were at the party (and thus breaking the law) and the prime minister who is continually lying about the party remain employed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on December 09, 2021, 01:30:47 PM
I don't see anything good about it. She's lost her job for a very minor point but all the people who were at the party (and thus breaking the law) and the prime minister who is continually lying about the party remain employed.

hmm. on the whole she was good at her job -  putting a gloss on Boris' lies and misdirection. And, though one could feel sorry at her tearful statement, she didn't speak the truth about what she knew about rule breaking at No 10. It was just a bit of PR, getting her out of the issue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 09, 2021, 02:09:48 PM
hmm. on the whole she was good at her job -  putting a gloss on Boris' lies and misdirection.
Not sure she was - don't forget that she was originally brought in to front daily press conferences - that never happened, presumably because she simply wasn't good enough to fulfil that role. You may ask therefore how she got the job - the fact that she is a chum (or is that chum-ess) of Sunak and Carrie Symonds couldn't possibly have anything to do with why she was appointed, could it ;).

And, though one could feel sorry at her tearful statement, she didn't speak the truth about what she knew about rule breaking at No 10. It was just a bit of PR, getting her out of the issue.
A classic case of being sorry for getting caught, rather than being sorry for what she did.

And of course the dry-run press conference, as jaw droopingly appalling as it was, isn't really the issue here. The issue is the illegal party held at no10 that precipitated the need to plan for what to say when the press got hold of the story.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on December 09, 2021, 02:39:19 PM
I don't see anything good about it. She's lost her job for a very minor point but all the people who were at the party (and thus breaking the law) and the prime minister who is continually lying about the party remain employed.

We'll have to differ. One less cheerleader for the liar in chief is a good thing in my mind. Although I do agree the others involved should lose their jobs as well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on December 09, 2021, 06:01:27 PM
John Crace in fine form.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/09/gathering-storm-ministers-party-pieces-fail-to-convince
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 09, 2021, 07:03:35 PM
More from Cold War Steve


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on December 09, 2021, 07:16:46 PM
I like that: I'm not a fan of the Monarchy but it would be wonderful if there were some ancient and obscure precedent that allowed the Queen to dismiss Johnson for being a lying arsehole.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 10, 2021, 02:45:17 PM
The suggestion from the Scottish govt that people defer 'Christmas parties' seems problematic to me in that no suppirt is being given to the hospitality industry as a result of this 'suggestion'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on December 11, 2021, 03:55:34 PM
https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/news/2021/modelling-potential-impact-omicron-england

Latest LSHTM modelling (paper still to be peer reviewed) wrt. Omicron, suggests possible 25,000 to 75,000 Covid deaths over the next 5 months, depending on social distancing measures or restrictions.

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on December 11, 2021, 07:34:42 PM
Bulgaria and Ukraine, 26% and 28% fully vaccinated, have both past the peak of their third wave. Cases in Russia also seem to be declining - good news. Perhaps things are moving more slowly there due to lower temperatures (currently -13` in Moscow)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 12, 2021, 05:34:38 PM
Oh shit! Johnson to mumble at the nation after Strictly, possibly to announce last year's Christmas party winners. If there are more restrictions, then the acts of the UK Govt will have undermined people's likelihood to comply.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59629916
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 12, 2021, 08:38:17 PM
Underwhelming performing from the racist incompetent lying thug
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on December 12, 2021, 09:34:59 PM
Underwhelming performing from the racist incompetent lying thug
 
   

All the gravitas of a whelk with none of the abilities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on December 16, 2021, 11:41:31 AM
Led by Donkeys take on the Met:

https://youtu.be/9Y18CrgFdh4
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 16, 2021, 04:51:24 PM
Plague Island

BREAKINGRecord daily UK coronavirus cases for second day in a row

A further 88,376 coronavirus cases have been reported in the UK, according to the government's daily figures.

There have also been another 146 deaths within 28 days of a positive test.

The UK reported 78,610 cases yesterday.



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 16, 2021, 06:29:25 PM
Led by Donkeys take on the Met:

https://youtu.be/9Y18CrgFdh4

There is a case to be made that Boris Johnson has single handedly destroyed this country. And this party thing makes me so angry because it makes it blatantly obvious that he just doesn't care.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on December 17, 2021, 09:44:58 AM
The ever excellent John Crace on Scientists versus elected representatives:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/16/boris-johnson-go-out-catch-covid-ignore-the-science-or-trust-in-chris-whitty
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on December 17, 2021, 04:24:21 PM
Another twist in the hugely entertaining pantomime of Tories having parties when they shouldn't - it seems that the Cabinet Secretary, a Simon Case, who is charged with investigated said parties himself had a party.

Various quotes about this can be found in the Guardian Live blog. I'm enjoying the schadenfreude.

Quote
It appears that the Cabinet Secretary’s office had covid law breaching Xmas parties too
The same Cabinet Secretary, Simon Case, tasked by Boris Johnson to investigate Xmas parties
Shouldn’t be difficult to investigate!
We’re now in pure Alice in Wonderland territory


Quote
Right so everyone in Westminster who had a lockdown-busting Christmas party is now just briefing against everyone else in Westminster who also had a Christmas party, in some sort of circular firing squad where executions are conducted with cheap prosecco.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on December 17, 2021, 04:56:12 PM
Another twist in the hugely entertaining pantomime of Tories having parties when they shouldn't - it seems that the Cabinet Secretary, a Simon Case, who is charged with investigated said parties himself had a party.

Various quotes about this can be found in the Guardian Live blog. I'm enjoying the schadenfreude.

Yup .. also the BBC:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59701369

Just the sheer cheek of accepting the role as head of the inquiry into the Downing St. parties is astonishing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on December 17, 2021, 04:59:29 PM
Another twist in the hugely entertaining pantomime of Tories having parties when they shouldn't - it seems that the Cabinet Secretary, a Simon Case, who is charged with investigated said parties himself had a party.

Various quotes about this can be found in the Guardian Live blog. I'm enjoying the schadenfreude.
Yes I'd seen this too - details are apparently:

'Simon Case and team had a Christmas party on Dec 17 2020 at 5.30 pm in room 103 of the Cabinet Office. The digital calendar invites sent in advance called it "Christmas party!"'

How can he head an investigation into alleged christmas parties, when his own office was clearly inviting people to a Christmas party at a physical location (so clearly not purely virtual Zoom).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on December 17, 2021, 05:05:06 PM
I think the only explanation is that Johnson is a 'Typhoid Tory' figure, with apologies to 'Typhoid Mary': everyone who associates with him seemingly gets infected whilst he carries on regardless.

He, like Mary, needs to be quarantined on a long-term basis to protect the rest of us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on December 17, 2021, 05:10:44 PM
I think the only explanation is that Johnson is a 'Typhoid Tory' figure, with apologies to 'Typhoid Mary': everyone who associates with him seemingly gets infected whilst he carries on regardless.

He, like Mary, needs to be quarantined on a long-term basis to protect the rest of us.

Suspect it is already too late ... corruption may already be spreading down through the civil service.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on December 17, 2021, 05:52:39 PM
It's now being reported that Simon is off the Case (again Guardian Live blog).

Quote
Simon Case is no longer leading the Whitehall investigation in lockdown rule breaking in Downing Street
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on December 17, 2021, 06:05:56 PM
I'm thoroughly enjoying this: Marina Hyde notes:

Quote
Case is off the case. Asked to turn in his gun and party hat.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on December 18, 2021, 10:48:17 AM
For those who like this sort of thing (I do) interactive graphics about vaccine rollouts and boosters across the world:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/dec/17/vaccine-rollout-data-by-country-shows-who-has-vaccinated-faster-and-why-exposing-the-global-covid-19-divide

(Still working my way through it)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on December 18, 2021, 01:22:20 PM
You are just repeating yourself Spud, and your arguments are no more compelling than they were previously.

One of the major points about vaccination is that it ensures that when someone is exposed to the virus that their immune system is already primed. This has a number of benefits.
It does not ensure this in all cases. Vaccines are supposed to be used either on a small part of the population or when there is no chance of infection while building up antibodies. There is a reason for this. When a highly mutable virus meets an incompletely primed immune system, fitter strains will be selected which will be transmitted and eventually become dominant. The immune system needs to be completely primed before exposure to the antigen. That requirement cannot be sufficiently met during a pandemic.

If however this virus meets a naive immune system in a healthy person, it will nearly always be eliminated by that person's innate antibodies and natural killer cells before his acquired antibodies build up sufficiently to select more infectious strains as described above.

So if a small part of the population is vaccinated while there is a risk of infection, there are still enough unvaccinated healthy people whose innate immune systems will prevent more infectious strains from circulating.

Quote
First, of course, it makes the infection likely to be less serious, so less chance of hospitalisation and death.
Yes, but at the same time the virus is being transmitted by vaccinees and undergoing natural selection due to the unfavourable environment. So long term these people are still at risk of serious disease from more infectious strains.

Quote
But also it make it more difficult for the virus to replicate and reduces viral shedding and therefore the likelihood for others to become infected.

Thirdly with less infection and less serious infection there is a reduction in the number of viral replication events, each of which may result in a mutation. The fewer mutations the less likelihood of a new variant of concern arising that may evade immunity (whether natural or vaccine-induced).
This is the case once the vaccinal antibodies are primed, but not when they are suboptimal or waning, at which point the virus will at some point overcome these antibodies and the infection rate will increase again.

Quote
In every respect vaccination is good and more vaccination is better.
Not when used while infection is occurring.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on December 18, 2021, 01:28:39 PM
Reports suggest that the Dutch government plan to implement a lockdown tonight and that the UK government plan a 'circuit break' in England immediately after Xmas, although various UK experts are saying this needs to happen sooner than that

Be interesting to see if Parliament is recalled next week to approve this in England and, if so, whether Johnson will be opposed by his own party.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on December 18, 2021, 01:54:03 PM
Quote
If however this virus meets a naive immune system in a healthy person, it will nearly always be eliminated by that person's innate antibodies and natural killer cells before his acquired antibodies build up sufficiently to select more infectious strains as described above.

I think we have things called dead bodies that disprove that ludicrous statement.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on December 18, 2021, 02:03:25 PM
I think we have things called dead bodies that disprove that ludicrous statement.
In the US study cited earlier, on 500k people hospitalized with C-19, over 90% of them had co-morbidities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on December 18, 2021, 02:06:52 PM
In the US study cited earlier, on 500k people hospitalized with C-19, over 90% of them had co-morbidities.

So this study confirms that 50,000 people who were hospitalized didn't have comorbidities.

Do you have a point to your relentless anti vaccine propaganda. Or do you just want everyone to catch this disease and have a proportion of them die?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on December 18, 2021, 02:29:27 PM
So this study confirms that 50,000 people who were hospitalized didn't have comorbidities.
The exact figure is 5.1% of 540,000 which is about 27,000. Suppose the rest had been vaccinated, that equals about 0.15% of the USA population vaccinated.

Quote
Do you have a point to your relentless anti vaccine propaganda. Or do you just want everyone to catch this disease and have a proportion of them die?
Vaccinating everybody will perpetuate the pandemic so that ultimately more people are sick and die than without mass vaccination.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on December 18, 2021, 03:24:24 PM
It's now being reported that Simon is off the Case (again Guardian Live blog).

This doesn't seem enough to me. That he accepted the role having allowed similar, possibly  illegal, activities in his own office, and not declaring the situation was plainly wrong. He should resign his post or be sacked.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on December 18, 2021, 03:29:42 PM
The exact figure is 5.1% of 540,000 which is about 27,000. Suppose the rest had been vaccinated, that equals about 0.15% of the USA population vaccinated.
Vaccinating everybody will perpetuate the pandemic so that ultimately more people are sick and die than without mass vaccination.

Thanks for confirming you are an anti-vaxxer. I know where to file your future comments.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on December 18, 2021, 03:30:43 PM
...
Vaccinating everybody will perpetuate the pandemic so that ultimately more people are sick and die than without mass vaccination.

Until you can show the maths supporting your inane claims they will, rightly, be ignored. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on December 18, 2021, 06:41:04 PM
Reported tonight.

Quote
The Netherlands will go into a new lockdown from Sunday morning to try to limit Covid-19 infections because of the Omicron variant, prime minister Mark Rutte said on Saturday.

He said: “The Netherlands is again shutting down.

“That is unavoidable because of the fifth wave that is coming at us with the Omicron variant,” Reuters reports.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 19, 2021, 03:05:54 PM
Private Eye
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 20, 2021, 09:33:23 AM

Once upon a time you might have had wine at 'work meeting', though not in the last 20 years. And not fucking last year. This govt is a pile of entitled shites lead by a shite covered incompetent lying entitled prick


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59722081
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on December 20, 2021, 09:49:18 AM
Who is also spineless and is prepared to risk the health and welfare of others to avoid upsetting the lunatics in his own party.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 20, 2021, 10:14:16 AM
.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on December 20, 2021, 10:49:33 AM
Once upon a time you might have had wine at 'work meeting', though not in the last 20 years. And not fucking last year. This govt is a pile of entitled shites lead by a shite covered incompetent lying entitled prick


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59722081
   

Come on....it was a meeting: Honest Boris was there, so it must have been.
I must say, tchnology is marvellous: invisible papers, desks and computers in evidence - that confirms it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on December 20, 2021, 12:05:58 PM
Once upon a time you might have had wine at 'work meeting', though not in the last 20 years. And not fucking last year. This govt is a pile of entitled shites lead by a shite covered incompetent lying entitled prick

They are not "entitled"; they have a sense of entitlement, which is not the same thing at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 20, 2021, 12:19:21 PM
They are not "entitled"; they have a sense of entitlement, which is not the same thing at all.
It has a pejorative sense as well-  https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/entitled
And I can't believe you are derailing the issue because this. Post what you think about the party.



Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 20, 2021, 01:11:51 PM
Once upon a time you might have had wine at 'work meeting', though not in the last 20 years. And not fucking last year. This govt is a pile of entitled shites lead by a shite covered incompetent lying entitled prick


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59722081

Maybe in your puritanical world that would be the case. I wouldn't rule out having wine at a work meeting under normal circumstances.

However, if I was having a work meeting during a period when social gatherings were banned, I would do everything I could to make sure it is seen unambiguously as a work meeting.

- The people at the meeting would be at the meeting and not twenty yards down the garden.

- Wine would not be present.

- Neither would my wife.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 20, 2021, 03:09:49 PM
Coldwar Steve's take
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 20, 2021, 04:27:34 PM
And
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 21, 2021, 02:59:46 PM
Extra measures in Scotland


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-59745262
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 21, 2021, 08:40:47 PM
And fines for those who don't work from home when they can in Wales. Not keen on this idea


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-59741680
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 22, 2021, 06:26:53 AM

Israel to go for second booster!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-59749967

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on December 23, 2021, 12:12:18 PM
Allison Pearson being a dangerous twat:

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/reactions-as-allison-pearson-writes-in-telegraph-its-time-for-humanity-to-prevail-over-scientists-306003/?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on December 23, 2021, 12:44:49 PM
Allison Pearson being a dangerous twat:

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/reactions-as-allison-pearson-writes-in-telegraph-its-time-for-humanity-to-prevail-over-scientists-306003/?

Further confirmation that the Torygraph is indistinguishable from Andrex (with apologies to the manufacturers of Andrex).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on December 23, 2021, 12:57:23 PM
Until you can show the maths supporting your inane claims they will, rightly, be ignored.
We now have a wave of mortality happening, relatively lower numbers than in previous waves, but if it continues through next year, that will support the claim: just turn the computer screen sideways to see why.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on December 23, 2021, 04:31:28 PM
We now have a wave of mortality happening, relatively lower numbers than in previous waves, but if it continues through next year, that will support the claim: just turn the computer screen sideways to see why.

What? If there are more infections there will be more deaths - that doesn't support the idea that vaccination causes an increase in infections.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on December 25, 2021, 10:02:08 PM
Looks like Boris the Liar is between a rock and a hard place as regards implementing more restrictions in England - poor Boris, my heart bleeds for him (not).

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/25/now-tory-mps-warn-dont-toughen-covid-new-year-rules
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on December 27, 2021, 05:21:24 PM
My reading of this is that Boris the Liar is more concerned about appeasing the lunatic fringe of his own party than he is about the welfare of the population of England. Time will tell.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/27/boris-johnson-will-impose-no-further-covid-restrictions-before-new-year
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 28, 2021, 10:22:47 AM
My reading of this is that Boris the Liar is more concerned about appeasing the lunatic fringe of his own party than he is about the welfare of the population of England. Time will tell.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/27/boris-johnson-will-impose-no-further-covid-restrictions-before-new-year

Of course he is. His own party can kick him out next week. The population of England doesn't get that opportunity for three years
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on December 28, 2021, 12:24:15 PM
Extra measures in Scotland

In the pubs?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sebastian Toe on December 28, 2021, 01:54:26 PM
In the pubs?
Traditionally yes.
1/5 or 1/4 gill and not the sparrow spit 1/6 served up in England!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on December 29, 2021, 04:59:00 PM
Traditionally yes.
1/5 or 1/4 gill and not the sparrow spit 1/6 served up in England!

OK granddad, we serve spirits in metric nowadays.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on December 30, 2021, 11:18:09 AM
What? If there are more infections there will be more deaths - that doesn't support the idea that vaccination causes an increase in infections.
I hope you don't mind if I have a go at this.

Quote
What? If there are more infections there will be more deaths - that doesn't support the idea that vaccination causes an increase in infections.
True, but what does support it is that we already know that the vaccines allow transmission. The natural adaptive immune response mounts after viral load and transmission peaks, so there is little opportunity for it to put selection pressure on the virus. Because vaccinal antibodies allow transmission, they will be likely to put selection pressure on the virus, and so will indirectly cause increased infection due to the increased spread of more highly infectious variants.

This is not to say that natural immunity doesn't apply selection pressure too: we know that the variants of concern were circulating before mass vaccination began. If a more infectious variant arises naturally within a mostly un-vaccinated population, its spread will be limited because their innate immunity, which can deal with a low viral load, along with a build-up in transmission-preventing, naturally acquired immunity, will eventually dilute the cases of infection with this variant enough to result in herd immunity. We see this currently happening in Bulgaria, for example.

In the UK Health Security Agency's vaccine surveillance report we are seeing lower case rates in unvaccinated people aged 18-69. I suggest that this cancels out/makes up for the higher death rates in the same groups.

Table 11 (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1041593/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-50.pdf) Shows the data for late November - early December.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on December 30, 2021, 02:41:34 PM
I hope you don't mind if I have a go at this.
True, but what does support it is that we already know that the vaccines allow transmission. The natural adaptive immune response mounts after viral load and transmission peaks, so there is little opportunity for it to put selection pressure on the virus. Because vaccinal antibodies allow transmission, they will be likely to put selection pressure on the virus, and so will indirectly cause increased infection due to the increased spread of more highly infectious variants.

This is not to say that natural immunity doesn't apply selection pressure too: we know that the variants of concern were circulating before mass vaccination began. If a more infectious variant arises naturally within a mostly un-vaccinated population, its spread will be limited because their innate immunity, which can deal with a low viral load, along with a build-up in transmission-preventing, naturally acquired immunity, will eventually dilute the cases of infection with this variant enough to result in herd immunity. We see this currently happening in Bulgaria, for example.

In the UK Health Security Agency's vaccine surveillance report we are seeing lower case rates in unvaccinated people aged 18-69. I suggest that this cancels out/makes up for the higher death rates in the same groups.

Table 11 (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1041593/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-50.pdf) Shows the data for late November - early December.

Not seen that anything to say that transmission is prevented by naturally acquired immunity. Do you have a link for that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on December 30, 2021, 08:58:04 PM
Not seen that anything to say that transmission is prevented by naturally acquired immunity. Do you have a link for that?
Naturally acquired immunity prevents re-infection, so that the third wave of infection has a definite end point (in contrast to the current ongoing third wave following mass vaccination), as all reservoirs for infection are then used up.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2110300
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on December 30, 2021, 09:52:13 PM
Naturally acquired immunity prevents re-infection, so that the third wave of infection has a definite end point (in contrast to the current ongoing third wave following mass vaccination), as all reservoirs for infection are then used up.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2110300

You said transmission, not reinfection. You can catch Covid-19 more than once though so natural infection doesn't prevent re-infection.

Whether natural infection gives better protection than vaccines or the other way round seems to be unclear with various studies giving different results.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-do-vaccines-protect-better-than-infection-induced-immunity#The-need-for-further-research (https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-do-vaccines-protect-better-than-infection-induced-immunity#The-need-for-further-research)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on December 31, 2021, 02:43:41 PM
You said transmission, not reinfection. You can catch Covid-19 more than once though so natural infection doesn't prevent re-infection.

Whether natural infection gives better protection than vaccines or the other way round seems to be unclear with various studies giving different results.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-do-vaccines-protect-better-than-infection-induced-immunity#The-need-for-further-research (https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-do-vaccines-protect-better-than-infection-induced-immunity#The-need-for-further-research)
As I understand it, you can catch Covid-19 a-symptomatically or mildly symptomatically and will make specific antibodies that are gone after 8 weeks, but you won't develop memory cells. This could explain many of the re-infections in your link, if the previous infections were mild.

More severe and drawn out infection will tend to result in memory cells being developed. These are permanent and can quickly make specific antibodies upon re-exposure. They may prevent re-infection or, if not, reduce disease severity.

The other factor not considered in the study is that vaccination and boosters put a wall of antibodies in front of the virus but these antibodies do not always prevent infection, they only reduce disease severity. This carries Risk of rapid evolutionary escape from biomedical interventions targeting SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0250780), which then increases the risk of infection for both groups. So, one cannot claim that the vaccines are better.

The thing about respiratory viruses is that because they mutate, the short-lived adaptive response is ideal - it assists the innate immune system deal with the current strain of virus and then is gone. Antibodies produced by long-term memory cells may not be able to neutralize future strains. So if the virus increases its infectiousness as a result of selection pressure from vaccines, higher numbers of people will be infected. This makes the viral load increase and peoples' innate immune system can't cope, so they become more severely ill. Then they tweak the vaccines and the process repeats itself.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 31, 2021, 03:40:33 PM
Raving loons

https://inews.co.uk/news/man-arrested-covid-deniers-storm-liverpool-hospital-genocide-1375082
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on December 31, 2021, 07:50:09 PM
As I understand it, you can catch Covid-19 a-symptomatically or mildly symptomatically and will make specific antibodies that are gone after 8 weeks, but you won't develop memory cells. This could explain many of the re-infections in your link, if the previous infections were mild.

More severe and drawn out infection will tend to result in memory cells being developed. These are permanent and can quickly make specific antibodies upon re-exposure. They may prevent re-infection or, if not, reduce disease severity.

The other factor not considered in the study is that vaccination and boosters put a wall of antibodies in front of the virus but these antibodies do not always prevent infection, they only reduce disease severity. This carries Risk of rapid evolutionary escape from biomedical interventions targeting SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0250780), which then increases the risk of infection for both groups. So, one cannot claim that the vaccines are better.

The thing about respiratory viruses is that because they mutate, the short-lived adaptive response is ideal - it assists the innate immune system deal with the current strain of virus and then is gone. Antibodies produced by long-term memory cells may not be able to neutralize future strains. So if the virus increases its infectiousness as a result of selection pressure from vaccines, higher numbers of people will be infected. This makes the viral load increase and peoples' innate immune system can't cope, so they become more severely ill. Then they tweak the vaccines and the process repeats itself.

You haven't supplied any supporting evidence for your statement that 'Naturally acquired immunity prevents re-infection' just speculated about it being due to mild infections dealt with by the innate immune system. If you could find that that would be interesting, otherwise it's just speculation.

I am interested to hear alternative views on this but do wonder why the vast majority of experts in the relevant fields see mass vaccination as the way out of this.

Edit: I have found this article which is fascinating but much is above my head as i am no expert.https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009286742100218X (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009286742100218X)

Edit 2: Also found this paper https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.01.21259833v1 (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.01.21259833v1) and this article https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/vaccines-will-not-produce-worse-variants (https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/vaccines-will-not-produce-worse-variants) which say that vaccines reduce the tendency for mutations by blocking some of the intermediary steps needed to generate a new variant -  'Unvaccinated patients exhibit more antigenic mutational variance'.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on January 01, 2022, 10:50:45 AM
You haven't supplied any supporting evidence for your statement that 'Naturally acquired immunity prevents re-infection'
How about the link in 4860, which states, "The efficacy of natural infection against reinfection, which was derived by comparing the incidence rate in both cohorts, was estimated at 92.3% (95% CI, 90.3 to 93.8 ) for the beta variant and at 97.6% (95% CI, 95.7 to 98.7) for the alpha variant.
...
Protection by previous SARS-CoV-2 infection against reinfection with the beta variant was observed, even 1 year after the primary infection, but protection was slightly lower than that against the alpha variant and wild-type virus circulating in Qatar."


Quote
just speculated about it
some of it
Quote
being due to mild infections dealt with by the innate immune system. If you could find that that would be interesting, otherwise it's just speculation.

I am interested to hear alternative views on this but do wonder why the vast majority of experts in the relevant fields see mass vaccination as the way out of this.
I also wonder this (!)

Quote
Edit: I have found this article which is fascinating but much is above my head as i am no expert.https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009286742100218X (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009286742100218X)

Edit 2: Also found this paper https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.01.21259833v1 (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.01.21259833v1) and this article https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/vaccines-will-not-produce-worse-variants (https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/vaccines-will-not-produce-worse-variants) which say that vaccines reduce the tendency for mutations by blocking some of the intermediary steps needed to generate a new variant -  'Unvaccinated patients exhibit more antigenic mutational variance'.
Thanks - had a look at these, including some comments in the comments section. Will get back to you on this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on January 01, 2022, 11:48:26 AM
Edit 2: Also found this paper https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.01.21259833v1 (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.01.21259833v1) and this article https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/vaccines-will-not-produce-worse-variants (https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/vaccines-will-not-produce-worse-variants) which say that vaccines reduce the tendency for mutations by blocking some of the intermediary steps needed to generate a new variant -  'Unvaccinated patients exhibit more antigenic mutational variance'.
The article talks about how if we wanted to induce resistance in a virus to a drug, we could do it by repeatedly exposing it to an insufficient amount of the drug. Over the generations, only the strains of virus that can overcome the reduced amount of drug will survive and ultimately one will arise that is fully resistant.

But the author doesn't seem to appreciate that this is what mass vaccination during a pandemic does. While the antibodies are building up in vaccinated individuals, that is when the selection is occurring, due to the fact that those individuals are already being exposed to the virus. There is no question that the vaccines prevent infection once they have fully primed the immune system - I know I stated a few posts ago that they do not, so just to clarify, that means during the few weeks after vaccination, as well as when waning.

I'm also not claiming that the variants of concern arose because of vaccination. They arose as a result of short-lived antibody build-up (following natural infection) that does not eliminate the virus but does suppress innate immunity, thereby allowing infection and facilitating natural selection of fitter strains due to the partial resistance of those short-lived spike-specific antibodies.

GVB describes how a natural pandemic ruins its course in his video on YouTube, "Asymptomatic Infection results in more infectious Covid-19 strains". (from about 6 -24 minutes).
What he doesn't do is finish explaining how the third wave ends. But that wave is due to the virus becoming more infectious as a result of the above process.

His claim is that if we mass vaccinate on top of the natural tendency for immune pressure to select for fitter variants, we put more and more suboptimal antibodies into the population and thus allow the fitter strains to become dominant, and so the pandemic is prolonged.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on January 01, 2022, 06:34:48 PM
The article talks about how if we wanted to induce resistance in a virus to a drug, we could do it by repeatedly exposing it to an insufficient amount of the drug. Over the generations, only the strains of virus that can overcome the reduced amount of drug will survive and ultimately one will arise that is fully resistant.

But the author doesn't seem to appreciate that this is what mass vaccination during a pandemic does. While the antibodies are building up in vaccinated individuals, that is when the selection is occurring, due to the fact that those individuals are already being exposed to the virus. There is no question that the vaccines prevent infection once they have fully primed the immune system - I know I stated a few posts ago that they do not, so just to clarify, that means during the few weeks after vaccination, as well as when waning.

I'm also not claiming that the variants of concern arose because of vaccination. They arose as a result of short-lived antibody build-up (following natural infection) that does not eliminate the virus but does suppress innate immunity, thereby allowing infection and facilitating natural selection of fitter strains due to the partial resistance of those short-lived spike-specific antibodies.

GVB describes how a natural pandemic ruins its course in his video on YouTube, "Asymptomatic Infection results in more infectious Covid-19 strains". (from about 6 -24 minutes).
What he doesn't do is finish explaining how the third wave ends. But that wave is due to the virus becoming more infectious as a result of the above process.

His claim is that if we mass vaccinate on top of the natural tendency for immune pressure to select for fitter variants, we put more and more suboptimal antibodies into the population and thus allow the fitter strains to become dominant, and so the pandemic is prolonged.

Why do you think the majority of experts around the world support the mass vaccination programs?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on January 03, 2022, 04:52:52 PM
Edit 2: Also found this paper https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.01.21259833v1 (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.01.21259833v1) and this article https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/vaccines-will-not-produce-worse-variants (https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/vaccines-will-not-produce-worse-variants) which say that vaccines reduce the tendency for mutations by blocking some of the intermediary steps needed to generate a new variant -  'Unvaccinated patients exhibit more antigenic mutational variance'.
Hi again,
The study says that "Analysing the relationship between vaccination rates and lineage entropy, we found that the declining diversity of SARS-CoV-2 lineages is indeed negatively correlated with increased rate of mass vaccination across the countries analyzed...Furthermore, the decline in the lineage diversity is coupled with the increased dominance of Variants of Concern: the B.1.1.7/Alpha-variant (45%), B.1.1.617/Delta-variant (21%), P.1/Gamma-variant (10%)12 [as at May 2021], suggesting that these variants may be “fitter strains’’ of SARS-CoV-2." So let's suppose that no vaccination had taken place. Could we not infer (if this study is implying that reduced diversity resulted from mass vaccination) that the previously higher level of lineage diversity would have been maintained, and thus that more infectious variants would not have become dominant (at least, not so rapidly)? In that case, the vaccines literally acted as a breeding ground for those variants. Or maybe I haven't interpreted this correctly?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on January 03, 2022, 05:42:55 PM
Hi again,
The study says that "Analysing the relationship between vaccination rates and lineage entropy, we found that the declining diversity of SARS-CoV-2 lineages is indeed negatively correlated with increased rate of mass vaccination across the countries analyzed...Furthermore, the decline in the lineage diversity is coupled with the increased dominance of Variants of Concern: the B.1.1.7/Alpha-variant (45%), B.1.1.617/Delta-variant (21%), P.1/Gamma-variant (10%)12 [as at May 2021], suggesting that these variants may be “fitter strains’’ of SARS-CoV-2." So let's suppose that no vaccination had taken place. Could we not infer (if this study is implying that reduced diversity resulted from mass vaccination) that the previously higher level of lineage diversity would have been maintained, and thus that more infectious variants would not have become dominant (at least, not so rapidly)? In that case, the vaccines literally acted as a breeding ground for those variants. Or maybe I haven't interpreted this correctly?

I would think, since the paper is entitled 'COVID-19 vaccines dampen genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2: Unvaccinated patients exhibit more antigenic mutational variance' then no. But I'm no expert.

Why do you think the majority of experts around the world support the mass vaccination programs?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 04, 2022, 11:00:32 AM
I hope you don't mind if I have a go at this.

Feel free
 
Quote
True, but what does support it is that we already know that the vaccines allow transmission. The natural adaptive immune response mounts after viral load and transmission peaks, so there is little opportunity for it to put selection pressure on the virus.

This doesn't follow. Once the initial infection has passed, how much difference is there between natural and vaccine induced immunity?

Quote
Because vaccinal antibodies allow transmission, they will be likely to put selection pressure on the virus, and so will indirectly cause increased infection due to the increased spread of more highly infectious variants.

"Natural" antibodies allow reinfection and transmission to a similar extent, and so the same (incorrect) argument would apply.

Quote
This is not to say that natural immunity doesn't apply selection pressure too: we know that the variants of concern were circulating before mass vaccination began. If a more infectious variant arises naturally within a mostly un-vaccinated population, its spread will be limited because their innate immunity, which can deal with a low viral load, along with a build-up in transmission-preventing, naturally acquired immunity, will eventually dilute the cases of infection with this variant enough to result in herd immunity. We see this currently happening in Bulgaria, for example.

Bulgaria? What evidence is there to support that spread of a more infectious variant has been limited due to innate immunity? They have higher death rates, do they have herd immunity?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111779/coronavirus-death-rate-europe-by-country/

Quote
In the UK Health Security Agency's vaccine surveillance report we are seeing lower case rates in unvaccinated people aged 18-69. I suggest that this cancels out/makes up for the higher death rates in the same groups.

You have ignored all the warnings on interpretation given in the document. See also:

https://osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/communicating-data-is-more-than-just-presenting-the-numbers/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on January 04, 2022, 01:39:46 PM
 If those of us here wo claim to be Christian, givin His command to love other, are in any way trying to do so, then the Christ-like thing woyld be the selfless act of accepting all vaccines in the hope that we lessen the risk to others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sebastian Toe on January 04, 2022, 09:15:00 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59867046

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on January 05, 2022, 03:27:33 PM

This doesn't follow. Once the initial infection has passed, how much difference is there between natural and vaccine induced immunity?

As suggested in a previous link, the immune system won't put much selection pressure on the virus during the initial infection. But vaccination while the virus is circulating will force the virus to evolve. This was confirmed by Sir Patrick Vallance in January 2021 during a press conference. So notwithstanding the efficacy of the vaccines, it seems to me that mass vaccination will still lead to an increase in the infection rate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on January 05, 2022, 03:32:04 PM
If those of us here wo claim to be Christian, givin His command to love other, are in any way trying to do so, then the Christ-like thing woyld be the selfless act of accepting all vaccines in the hope that we lessen the risk to others.
But to paraphrase the leading headline in yesterday's Telegraph, "We can't jab the whole planet every six months. Future vaccination will have to be limited to those who are most vulnerable"
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on January 05, 2022, 05:27:42 PM
As suggested in a previous link, the immune system won't put much selection pressure on the virus during the initial infection. But vaccination while the virus is circulating will force the virus to evolve. This was confirmed by Sir Patrick Vallance in January 2021 during a press conference. So notwithstanding the efficacy of the vaccines, it seems to me that mass vaccination will still lead to an increase in the infection rate.

If that's really the case then it's also made the virus milder. Another benefit of mass vaccination.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Anchorman on January 05, 2022, 05:44:39 PM
But to paraphrase the leading headline in yesterday's Telegraph, "We can't jab the whole planet every six months. Future vaccination will have to be limited to those who are most vulnerable"
     


Sorry; the Torygraph isn't on my reading list.
However; the Christ-like thing to do would be to use our God-given ability to vaccinate as many, as often, as our reasources allow.
It's part of the 'Love one another' thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 05, 2022, 07:10:11 PM
As suggested in a previous link, the immune system won't put much selection pressure on the virus during the initial infection. But vaccination while the virus is circulating will force the virus to evolve. This was confirmed by Sir Patrick Vallance in January 2021 during a press conference. So notwithstanding the efficacy of the vaccines, it seems to me that mass vaccination will still lead to an increase in the infection rate.

It is just not true that "vaccination while the virus is circulating will force the virus to evolve". What did Vallance say exactly? - If he said that - it wouldn't be the first time he has made a misleading statement in a press conference. 

The virus is always "evolving" - new variants arise and spread or not - those that are better at spreading  - will spread more than other variants. These usually start in cases where someone with an immune system issue has become infected and a variant that can escape some natural anti-bodies takes hold.

All the main variants so far arose in populations with low levels of vaccination. For Omicron the most likely case is that it "evolved" in someone suffering, being treated for, or recovering from HIV.

The vaccines and vaccination programs are designed and tested so as to minimise infection rates and spread as well as effects of the disease. If you want to claim that because they don't do that perfectly, infection rates will be higher than in populations that have not been vaccinated you need to provide a mathematical model and estimated parameters that show that. Speculation on what "might" happen is useless without considering the probabilities of the possible sequence of events. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on January 06, 2022, 08:48:37 AM
Bulgaria and Ukraine, 26% and 28% fully vaccinated, have both past the peak of their third wave. Cases in Russia also seem to be declining - good news. Perhaps things are moving more slowly there due to lower temperatures (currently -13` in Moscow)

Cases in Bulgaria rising rapidly again sadly.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~BGR (https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~BGR)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on January 06, 2022, 12:03:47 PM
Cases in Bulgaria rising rapidly again sadly.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~BGR (https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~BGR)
Omicron has been detected there, so that could be the cause. If so then mortality should remain low, unless there is more to come from O than what we are currently seeing. I saw a study this morning concluding that "Protection from reinfection decreases with time since previous infection, but is, nevertheless, higher than that conferred by vaccination with two doses at a similar time since the last immunity-conferring event. A single vaccine dose after infection helps to restore protection." . This could explain why Bulgaria's third wave declined steeply despite low vaccination.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.04.21267114v1
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on January 06, 2022, 04:31:10 PM
If that's really the case then it's also made the virus milder. Another benefit of mass vaccination.
I've been pondering this possibility for a while.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on January 06, 2022, 04:43:50 PM
It is just not true that "vaccination while the virus is circulating will force the virus to evolve". What did Vallance say exactly? - If he said that - it wouldn't be the first time he has made a misleading statement in a press conference. 
I think this is it:
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1346510188107472898
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 06, 2022, 07:40:34 PM
I think this is it:
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1346510188107472898

Well, Vallance was speaking very loosely - trying to get a general point across. It's not strictly scientific and  not be taken literally.

He implies that evolutionary pressure from vaccination will "cause" mutation, that the mutation will occur when vaccination levels are high, and that the virus will "struggle to work out what to do" - all of which is nonsense.

This is disappointing from a very successful scientist but on a par with his fall back to "herd immunity" in an earlier press conference, closer to the start of the epidemic. At least he is not as useless as Harries when she was on.

Whitty is better, suggesting that wider vaccination with single doses will help contain the disease even though there is a slightly higher risk of an escape mutant emerging in the longer gap before the second dose.

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on January 07, 2022, 01:55:02 AM
Well, Vallance was speaking very loosely - trying to get a general point across. It's not strictly scientific and  not be taken literally.
He started off by saying, "the more you vaccinate, the more you put evolutionary pressure on the virus."
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 07, 2022, 10:24:44 AM
He started off by saying, "the more you vaccinate, the more you put evolutionary pressure on the virus."

Indeed he did, and it is correct that "the more you vaccinate, the more you put evolutionary pressure on the virus". But what do you think that means?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on January 07, 2022, 12:47:58 PM
Indeed he did, and it is correct that "the more you vaccinate, the more you put evolutionary pressure on the virus". But what do you think that means?
Immune pressure on it will make it hard for it to replicate, but if the immune pressure is not enough to completely neutralize it, transmission continues, often asymptomatically, allowing mutation to continue. Then a mutation in the spike protein that enhances its ability to infect cells gives that virus a competitive advantage and a new wave of infection occurs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on January 07, 2022, 01:05:33 PM
Immune pressure on it will make it hard for it to replicate, but if the immune pressure is not enough to completely neutralize it, transmission continues, often asymptomatically, allowing mutation to continue. Then a mutation in the spike protein that enhances its ability to infect cells gives that virus a competitive advantage and a new wave of infection occurs.

Mutations happen due to things such as antigen drift and i haven't seen anything to suggest that this process is sped up by vaccinations. As a layman one could imagine that vaccinations would mean that those mutations which get round the antibodies would be selected preferentially - but the paper i linked to earlier says that the antibodies etc act to prevent intermediate stages in the development of new variants so act to reduce the likelihood of new variants developing.

What you talk about here is just as likely with natural infection as with vaccination as far as I can see - since the immunity from natural infection isn't neutralising either - and new variants formed prior to vaccinations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 07, 2022, 01:51:55 PM
Immune pressure on it will make it hard for it to replicate, but if the immune pressure is not enough to completely neutralize it, transmission continues, often asymptomatically, allowing mutation to continue. Then a mutation in the spike protein that enhances its ability to infect cells gives that virus a competitive advantage and a new wave of infection occurs.

Great, we can agree on that (with a small note that "competitive advantage" for an rna virus is different to one we normally consider in evolution).

Now, a "mutation in the spike protein that enhances its ability to infect cells" is not an inevitable event but a matter of probability, and the probability of that mutation occurring in a vaccinated individual will be equal to or less than it occurring in an un-vaccinated person.

So, suppose the whole population is vaccinated with a vaccine that is 70% effective - that leaves 30% of the people vulnerable to infection. Suppose now that 10% of people are exposed to enough of the virus to guarantee infection by the virus. Then, of the vaccinated population, 3% will become infected and become possible incubators for a mutated virus. If no-one was vaccinated, 10% of the population would be infected and be possible incubators - roughly three times as many. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on January 08, 2022, 02:20:04 PM
Mutations happen due to things such as antigen drift
Other way round - genetic variation arises as a result of accumulation of mutations.

Quote
and i haven't seen anything to suggest that this process is sped up by vaccinations.
I've seen it stated somewhere that viruses can increase the rate of mutation when under immune pressure.

Quote
As a layman one could imagine that vaccinations would mean that those mutations which get round the antibodies would be selected preferentially - but the paper i linked to earlier says that the antibodies etc act to prevent intermediate stages in the development of new variants so act to reduce the likelihood of new variants developing.
Yes that is interesting - the research is quite complicated - but it appears to me that when a more infectious variant appears, of course the diversity of variants will decline. That this correlates with increasing vaccination suggests that no vaccination would keep the diversity high. That implies less rapid spread of more infectious variants.

Note also that the more rapidly the more infectious variants spread, the more they will affect unvaccinated people, hence the reason for the higher morbidity and mortality among unvaccinated is that the vaccines have accelerated spread of these variants.

Quote
What you talk about here is just as likely with natural infection as with vaccination as far as I can see - since the immunity from natural infection isn't neutralising either - and new variants formed prior to vaccinations.
Innate immunity is very effective - that;s why children and young, healthy adults were generally asymptomatic during the first wave (when the infection rate was lower, so re-infection was less likely). Adaptive immunity is also very effective, but also wanes over time. The problem is the more pressure we put on the virus, the more infectious it has to become.

I'm talking in this post about last year's VOCs, Alpha etc. As far as the less severe Omicron goes, it has been suggested that it arose when a strain similar to Wuhan jumped into mice and then evolved in them, before jumping back to humans. Something to do with mouse ACE 2... remaining questions are, did the vaccines cause that, and if so, will the overall cost to human life of everyone being infected be worth paying?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on January 08, 2022, 02:31:09 PM
Great, we can agree on that (with a small note that "competitive advantage" for an rna virus is different to one we normally consider in evolution).

Now, a "mutation in the spike protein that enhances its ability to infect cells" is not an inevitable event but a matter of probability, and the probability of that mutation occurring in a vaccinated individual will be equal to or less than it occurring in an un-vaccinated person.

So, suppose the whole population is vaccinated with a vaccine that is 70% effective - that leaves 30% of the people vulnerable to infection. Suppose now that 10% of people are exposed to enough of the virus to guarantee infection by the virus. Then, of the vaccinated population, 3% will become infected and become possible incubators for a mutated virus. If no-one was vaccinated, 10% of the population would be infected and be possible incubators - roughly three times as many.
But we need to account for changing levels of naturally induced immunity in the absence of vaccines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 08, 2022, 04:56:39 PM
But we need to account for changing levels of naturally induced immunity in the absence of vaccines.

Can you account for them? What is the scientific basis for any significant difference in immunity in vaccinated and non-vaccinated individuals? The most significant difference would seem to be fatality in those whose natural immune response goes into overdrive and kills the patient!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on January 08, 2022, 06:14:37 PM
It seems that the Omigod variant may be good news. It's transmissibility means that it is becoming the dominant strain, and it is usually mild in its symproms. It may become endemic, and no more worrying than flu or colds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on January 08, 2022, 06:47:55 PM
Other way round - genetic variation arises as a result of accumulation of mutations.

Yes, sorry - antigenetic drift  is due to a build up of mutations. I worded it badly and think I was getting confused with genetic drift! As i say below - I don't really know enough about all this, though am trying to learn.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on January 08, 2022, 06:56:55 PM
I've seen it stated somewhere that viruses can increase the rate of mutation when under immune pressure.

Can you find a link?

Quote
Yes that is interesting - the research is quite complicated - but it appears to me that when a more infectious variant appears, of course the diversity of variants will decline. That this correlates with increasing vaccination suggests that no vaccination would keep the diversity high. That implies less rapid spread of more infectious variants.

That's not what the paper said though I think. It was complicated though.

Quote
Note also that the more rapidly the more infectious variants spread, the more they will affect unvaccinated people, hence the reason for the higher morbidity and mortality among unvaccinated is that the vaccines have accelerated spread of these variants.

How has vaccination accelerated the spread?

Quote
Innate immunity is very effective - that;s why children and young, healthy adults were generally asymptomatic during the first wave (when the infection rate was lower, so re-infection was less likely). Adaptive immunity is also very effective, but also wanes over time. The problem is the more pressure we put on the virus, the more infectious it has to become.

Everything I have read says that the innate immune system is limited in it's effectiveness. You have stated this before as if fact but haven't seen any supporting links for it. I may have missed them but do you have any?

Quote
I'm talking in this post about last year's VOCs, Alpha etc. As far as the less severe Omicron goes, it has been suggested that it arose when a strain similar to Wuhan jumped into mice and then evolved in them, before jumping back to humans. Something to do with mouse ACE 2... remaining questions are, did the vaccines cause that, and if so, will the overall cost to human life of everyone being infected be worth paying?

I heard that it came from Delta but have seen nothing definitive. Again, any links to support what you have just said? No one I have read has claimed that Omicron resulted from use of the vaccines.

Edit: Have seen there is a Chinese study which says this but also found this which says many scientists have been sceptical of the animal cause of Omicron since Sars-Cov-2 isn't good at infecting mice. It says that scientists have modified Sars-Cov-2 to make it infect mice in labs so ......

https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/did-omicron-come-from-mice-chinese-scientists-believe-so/ (https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/did-omicron-come-from-mice-chinese-scientists-believe-so/)

I don't really know enough to debate this any further but, I have asked several times, with no answer, why you think the vast majority of experts in the field support mass vaccination? They are surely aware of the sort of things you are talking about. Why do you think we aren't seeing the majority of virologists and the like crying out to stop the vaccine roll outs?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on January 08, 2022, 07:17:53 PM
It seems that the Omigod variant may be good news. It's transmissibility means that it is becoming the dominant strain, and it is usually mild in its symproms. It may become endemic, and no more worrying than flu or colds.

Less severe - not mild.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 09, 2022, 09:11:06 AM
It seems that the Omigod variant may be good news. It's transmissibility means that it is becoming the dominant strain, and it is usually mild in its symproms. It may become endemic, and no more worrying than flu or colds.

The previous variants were also usually mild.

In some ways flu can be worse - imagine what would have happened if we had been exposed to flu as a novel virus to which we had not been previously exposed - as happened in the Americas from the 16th century. 

How  is Omicrom wrt. long covid?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on January 09, 2022, 10:56:43 AM
It seems that the Omigod variant may be good news. It's transmissibility means that it is becoming the dominant strain, and it is usually mild in its symproms. It may become endemic, and no more worrying than flu or colds.

I think some of the medical experts over here suggested a similar thing, in which case I struggled to understand why politicians are shitting their pants and living up yet more restrictions. We have a pretty decent vaccine. We need to get back to normal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 09, 2022, 12:02:40 PM
I think some of the medical experts over here suggested a similar thing, in which case I struggled to understand why politicians are shitting their pants and living up yet more restrictions. We have a pretty decent vaccine. We need to get back to normal.

Twitter thread explaining what "endemic" means (https://t.co/QaFUwqtEST).

(though I did find the gifs unnecessary and annoying) 

If we can keep the effective reproduction number under 1 - eg. by improved vaccines, it will disappear and we can get back to normal.

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on January 09, 2022, 12:16:38 PM
Twitter thread explaining what "endemic" means (https://t.co/QaFUwqtEST).

(though I did find the gifs unnecessary and annoying) 

If we can keep the effective reproduction number under 1 - eg. by improved vaccines, it will disappear and we can get back to normal.

We already have a vaccine and which can be tweaked every season. The vaccine was supposed to be the way out. People are getting tired.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on January 09, 2022, 12:22:40 PM
I think some of the medical experts over here suggested a similar thing, in which case I struggled to understand why politicians are shitting their pants and living up yet more restrictions. We have a pretty decent vaccine. We need to get back to normal.

Because it is an unknown. We didn't know if it was milder and if so how much. With it being so transmissible even being milder the potential number of hospitalisations is high. It was, and is, about being cautious and trying not to overwhelm the NHS. We will get back to normal(ish) soon but need to get through the winter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on January 09, 2022, 12:28:18 PM
Because it is an unknown. We didn't know if it was milder and if so how much. With it being so transmissible even being milder the potential number of hospitalisations is high. It was, and is, about being cautious and trying not to overwhelm the NHS. We will get back to normal(ish) soon but need to get through the winter.

What gets me is many of the restrictions don't have much logic. Close a pub or a pool hall but not a school. The virus spreads equally in both. If you're going to have restrictions then they have to apply to everyone.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on January 09, 2022, 12:29:33 PM
Can you account for them? What is the scientific basis for any significant difference in immunity in vaccinated and non-vaccinated individuals? The most significant difference would seem to be fatality in those whose natural immune response goes into overdrive and kills the patient!
This (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.04.21267114v1.full-text) recent preprint concludes that "Protection from reinfection decreases with time since previous infection, but is, nevertheless, higher than that conferred by vaccination with two doses at a similar time since the last immunity-conferring event. A single vaccine dose after infection helps to restore protection." The basis for this difference may be to do with the exposure to the whole pathogen, rather than one bit of it. The fatality caused by immune overdrive occurred from the beginning, it didn't wait until vaccines were available. Had they not been used,  immunity building up may have reduced the severity of disease within a year. In the study, naturally acquired immunity led to fourfold reduction in severity of re-infection compared with double vaccination.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on January 09, 2022, 12:31:58 PM
We already have a vaccine and which can be tweaked every season. The vaccine was supposed to be the way out. People are getting tired.

Of course people are tired and I'm sure restrictions will end pretty soon, but we have to accept that the virus isn't going away so have to manage it. Vaccines have made a huge difference but they were about reducing the effect of the novel virus not a silver bullet. The vaccine manufacturers have said they can tweak the vaccines and trials are ongoing but, as with flu, the tweaks are best guesses for what strains will be around so there is always potential for a new variant which the tweaked vaccine isn't so good for. Different vaccines may give better protection to a wider range of variants as we go on but we aren't there yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 09, 2022, 12:33:07 PM
We already have a vaccine and which can be tweaked every season. The vaccine was supposed to be the way out. People are getting tired.

Actually, on reflection, "normal" was pretty crap anyway! - Worldwide pollution, global warming, conflicts, poverty, exploitation ... ???
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on January 09, 2022, 12:34:33 PM
What gets me is many of the restrictions don't have much logic. Close a pub or a pool hall but not a school. The virus spreads equally in both. If you're going to have restrictions then they have to apply to everyone.

They aren't currently trying to prevent all transmission but to reduce a surge in it and so are making choices on what is most important.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on January 09, 2022, 12:39:29 PM
They aren't currently trying to prevent all transmission but to reduce a surge in it and so are making choices on what is most important.

So kids get let off, spread it, but us adults don't. Lovely!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on January 09, 2022, 12:42:00 PM
So kids get let off, spread it, but us adults don't. Lovely!

Not sure what you mean by 'let off'.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 09, 2022, 12:52:45 PM
This (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.04.21267114v1.full-text) recent preprint concludes that "Protection from reinfection decreases with time since previous infection, but is, nevertheless, higher than that conferred by vaccination with two doses at a similar time since the last immunity-conferring event. A single vaccine dose after infection helps to restore protection." The basis for this difference may be to do with the exposure to the whole pathogen, rather than one bit of it. The fatality caused by immune overdrive occurred from the beginning, it didn't wait until vaccines were available. Had they not been used,  immunity building up may have reduced the severity of disease within a year. In the study, naturally acquired immunity led to fourfold reduction in severity of re-infection compared with double vaccination.

It is feasible that immunity through infection might last a few weeks or months longer than that through vaccination - although that has not been generally proven - given that a wide variety of vaccines have become available (the study only considers Pfizer and variants before omicron). As far as is known, the vaccines provide long term protection against serious disease in the same way as natural infection.

But what you keep ignoring is that to build up immunity in the population as you suggest would have led to the unnecessary deaths (or long covid) in hundreds of thousands of people. If vaccinated people do become infected (just as those that have been naturally (re)infected) - the immune system has a chance to catch up, if needed, with less risk to life.
       
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on January 09, 2022, 01:07:26 PM
Can you find a link?
Here's where I saw it (https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0250780) (paragraph 2 of the discussion) but the context seems to be that if the mutation rate increases, the virus goes extinct.

Quote
That's not what the paper said though I think. It was complicated though.

How has vaccination accelerated the spread?
One way may be by replacing our innate antibodies which can neutralize a broad spectrum of strains (at low viral load) with antigen-specific antibodies, which have higher affinity for the new strains than the innate abs, thus are preventing the innate abs from complexing with them, while not preventing infection of the cells because they are specific to the original strain. So for healthy and young people who could have cleared infection by VOCs before the adaptive immunity builds up, they now have to wait until that immunity builds up, ie they get more severe disease. This in turn accelerates transmission, due to heavier shedding.

Quote
Everything I have read says that the innate immune system is limited in it's effectiveness. You have stated this before as if fact but haven't seen any supporting links for it. I may have missed them but do you have any?
From GVB's website (https://www.voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org/blog/supportive-references-from-literature) some references he cites..

Quote
I heard that it came from Delta but have seen nothing definitive. Again, any links to support what you have just said? No one I have read has claimed that Omicron resulted from use of the vaccines.

Edit: Have seen there is a Chinese study which says this but also found this which says many scientists have been sceptical of the animal cause of Omicron since Sars-Cov-2 isn't good at infecting mice. It says that scientists have modified Sars-Cov-2 to make it infect mice in labs so ......

https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/did-omicron-come-from-mice-chinese-scientists-believe-so/ (https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/did-omicron-come-from-mice-chinese-scientists-believe-so/)

I don't really know enough to debate this any further but, I have asked several times, with no answer, why you think the vast majority of experts in the field support mass vaccination? They are surely aware of the sort of things you are talking about. Why do you think we aren't seeing the majority of virologists and the like crying out to stop the vaccine roll outs?
In my opinion the vaccination should have been for elderly and those with comorbidities only. Doctors worked out how to treat the disease before this, and enabling people to recover carries the benefit that they contribute to herd immunity. But also, I am wary of the medical profession. There is clearly a motive within it and in government to be seen to be doing its utmost. That combined with a complete absence of supplementary advice, eg dental hygiene, diet, improvement of overall health, and a long-standing belief that some parts of the human body are vestigial and useless (remember the days of tonsil and appendix removal for the sake of it?), or not up to the job (ie the immune system), I think led them to go all out for mass vaccination.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on January 09, 2022, 01:10:15 PM
Not sure what you mean by 'let off'.

They can play with their friends at school but adults can't go to a pub for a pint with a mate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on January 09, 2022, 01:11:33 PM
Here's where I saw it (https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0250780) (paragraph 2 of the discussion) but the context seems to be that if the mutation rate increases, the virus goes extinct.
One way may be by replacing our innate antibodies which can neutralize a broad spectrum of strains (at low viral load) with antigen-specific antibodies, which have higher affinity for the new strains thus not allowing the innate abs to complex with them, while do not prevent infection of the cells because they are specific to the original strain. So for healthy and young people who could have cleared infection by VOCs before the adaptive immunity builds up, they now have to wait until that immunity builds up, ie they get more severe disease. This in turn accelerates transmission, due to heavier shedding.
From GVB's website (https://www.voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org/blog/supportive-references-from-literature) some references he cites..
In my opinion the vaccination should have been for elderly and those with comorbidities only. Doctors worked out how to treat the disease before this, and enabling people to recover carries the benefit that they contribute to herd immunity. But also, I am wary of the medical profession. There is clearly a motive within it and in government to be seen to be doing its utmost. That combined with a complete absence of supplementary advice, eg dental hygiene, diet, improvement of overall health, and a long-standing belief that some parts of the human body are vestigial and useless (remember the days of tonsil and appendix removal for the sake of it?), or not up to the job (ie the immune system), I think led them to go all out for mass vaccination.

Thanks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on January 09, 2022, 04:38:00 PM
Here's where I saw it (https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0250780) (paragraph 2 of the discussion) but the context seems to be that if the mutation rate increases, the virus goes extinct.

That's a nice paper, but of-course does not support the idea that vaccination causes higher or faster spread. If anything it suggests vaccines should target more areas of the virus, making escape variants harder to emerge.

Quote
 
...

Quote
In my opinion the vaccination should have been for elderly and those with comorbidities only. Doctors worked out how to treat the disease before this, and enabling people to recover carries the benefit that they contribute to herd immunity.

That would have been reasonable considering that the elderly or vulnerable in much of the world were unable to obtain vaccine supplies, but of-course sending vaccines abroad could not been countenanced politically, even to Europe. If only we had had contingency plans for dealing with epidemics ... or even a half-competent government people could trust!
 
Quote
...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on January 10, 2022, 11:59:25 AM
It is feasible that immunity through infection might last a few weeks or months longer than that through vaccination - although that has not been generally proven - given that a wide variety of vaccines have become available (the study only considers Pfizer and variants before omicron). As far as is known, the vaccines provide long term protection against serious disease in the same way as natural infection.

But what you keep ignoring is that to build up immunity in the population as you suggest would have led to the unnecessary deaths (or long covid) in hundreds of thousands of people.
Yes, I know more people may in theory have died without mass vaccination. However, there are models that could be looked at to prevent this, such as early treatment following a positive test, say with antivirals on an outpatient basis. This was proposed by GVB, who has said that the main problem is allowing the infectious pressure to get out of control. Antivirals would bring it down and this would prevent naturally protected people (by innate immunity) from becoming susceptible to infection (because the innate system can't cope with high infectious pressure).

Quote
If vaccinated people do become infected (just as those that have been naturally (re)infected) - the immune system has a chance to catch up, if needed, with less risk to life.
Not sure about this. Problem being that when variants arise, the memory cells recall antibodies which match the original virus but not the variants. This will lead to severe disease because the old vaccinal abs and the innate abs will both be unable to prevent infection. So it may not be 'if' but 'when' vaccinated people do become infected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on January 10, 2022, 12:06:28 PM
Antivirals may well be one of the ways forward now - but not originally. So your "in theory" is useless. Without vaccination, a lot larger number of people would have died.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on January 10, 2022, 07:33:08 PM
saw this study about how little protection prior infection gives against reinfection with Omicron.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/omicron-largely-evades-immunity-from-past/ (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/omicron-largely-evades-immunity-from-past/)

Any thoughts Spud?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 11, 2022, 10:32:21 AM

Party at No 10. Bring your booze. Piss on the electorate.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59946784
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on January 11, 2022, 11:30:11 AM
Party at No 10. Bring your booze. Piss on the electorate.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59946784

I think Dominic Cummning's blog on the subject makes interesting reading

https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/parties-photos-trolleys-variants

Even if only to show how much he's got it in for Johnson.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on January 11, 2022, 11:53:05 AM
Given the rise in cases over here due to omicron the health authority for the region I live in, Uusimaa (which includes Helsinki), has decided to wind down it's en masse trace and quarantine programme as it can no longer do it effectively. From now on they will concentrate on hospitals, old peoples' homes etc. Probably the right thing to do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on January 11, 2022, 01:23:13 PM
Antivirals may well be one of the ways forward now - but not originally. So your "in theory" is useless. Without vaccination, a lot larger number of people would have died.
Yes, I'm very aware of this, however, many more will in future and my question is whether that would be the case had the pandemic taken its course naturally. I know of one South African and one US consultant who treated thousands of patients for coronavirus very successfully. They used methods that hadn't been recommended by the establishment (I don't mean in the sense that they were advised not to use them, but that they weren't protocol).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on January 11, 2022, 01:25:17 PM
saw this study about how little protection prior infection gives against reinfection with Omicron.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/omicron-largely-evades-immunity-from-past/ (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/omicron-largely-evades-immunity-from-past/)

Any thoughts Spud?
I've got 29 tabs open, mostly on this subject, so now I can have 30!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on January 11, 2022, 01:50:21 PM
Party at No 10. Bring your booze. Piss on the electorate.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59946784
Drinks cabinet?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on January 12, 2022, 11:40:44 AM
saw this study about how little protection prior infection gives against reinfection with Omicron.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/omicron-largely-evades-immunity-from-past/ (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/omicron-largely-evades-immunity-from-past/)

Any thoughts Spud?
Yes I think it's to be expected. Imagine for a moment that I'm writing an exam essay on why naturally acquired immunity appears not to be permanent. With my limited knowledge and using the models explained by Geert, I can at least have a go.

In theory, and perhaps historically, the third wave of a pandemic in which minimal intervention measures are implemented would be characterized in its latter stage by more infectious variants that can overcome the innate antibodies in the fittest of the population who so far have only been asymptomatically infected, leading to disease in those people.

I imagine that further global waves of infection would in that scenario be prevented by the fact that the whole process would happen in a much more condensed time frame than what we have seen with Covid-19. In that scenario: while symptomatic disease is increasingly occurring in people of increasing fitness, there is a build-up of long-lasting immunity. As we know, this immunity is depleted after a year or two, but it's there long enough to see in 'herd immunity'. The reason we have had a prolonged pandemic is because the lockdowns have prolonged the periods between waves, and mass vaccination has (I think) put extra evolutionary pressure on the virus.

Concerning the latter, I imagine the fitness cost of becoming more infectious would under non-vaccination circumstances prevent these variants from becoming dominant. But with mass vaccination, a more infectious variant is the only one that can be transmitted from one vaccinated person to another vaccinated person.

Natural selection theory would suggest that just because a more infectious variant can survive in an environment of high immune pressure, it doesn't follow that it would survive better without that pressure. Dominance of more infectious variants would occur when the immune pressure increases due to lock down and vaccination, but without that increase, maybe less infectious strains would have continued to be dominant.

Maybe there is some fitness cost of increased infectiousness such that a more infectious virus wouldn't be as efficient as less infectious strains in the absence of the high immune pressure generated on top of natural immunity by vaccines?

Edit: I meant to say that this would explain why naturally acquired antigen-specific immunity to coronaviruses lasts for the length of time it does. Historically the high levels of antibodies were only needed for long enough to ensure herd immunity.

Edit 2: if a voc emerges in a region where there are high levels of suboptimal immune pressure, the 'fitneas cost' phenomenon might prevent spread outside that region where there is less immune pressure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on January 12, 2022, 07:49:40 PM
Yes I think it's to be expected. Imagine for a moment that I'm writing an exam essay on why naturally acquired immunity appears not to be permanent. With my limited knowledge and using the models explained by Geert, I can at least have a go.

In theory, and perhaps historically, the third wave of a pandemic in which minimal intervention measures are implemented would be characterized in its latter stage by more infectious variants that can overcome the innate antibodies in the fittest of the population who so far have only been asymptomatically infected, leading to disease in those people.

I imagine that further global waves of infection would in that scenario be prevented by the fact that the whole process would happen in a much more condensed time frame than what we have seen with Covid-19. In that scenario: while symptomatic disease is increasingly occurring in people of increasing fitness, there is a build-up of long-lasting immunity. As we know, this immunity is depleted after a year or two, but it's there long enough to see in 'herd immunity'. The reason we have had a prolonged pandemic is because the lockdowns have prolonged the periods between waves, and mass vaccination has (I think) put extra evolutionary pressure on the virus.

Concerning the latter, I imagine the fitness cost of becoming more infectious would under non-vaccination circumstances prevent these variants from becoming dominant. But with mass vaccination, a more infectious variant is the only one that can be transmitted from one vaccinated person to another vaccinated person.

Natural selection theory would suggest that just because a more infectious variant can survive in an environment of high immune pressure, it doesn't follow that it would survive better without that pressure. Dominance of more infectious variants would occur when the immune pressure increases due to lock down and vaccination, but without that increase, maybe less infectious strains would have continued to be dominant.

Maybe there is some fitness cost of increased infectiousness such that a more infectious virus wouldn't be as efficient as less infectious strains in the absence of the high immune pressure generated on top of natural immunity by vaccines?

Edit: I meant to say that this would explain why naturally acquired antigen-specific immunity to coronaviruses lasts for the length of time it does. Historically the high levels of antibodies were only needed for long enough to ensure herd immunity.

Edit 2: if a voc emerges in a region where there are high levels of suboptimal immune pressure, the 'fitneas cost' phenomenon might prevent spread outside that region where there is less immune pressure.

To be honest, I think because the way the immune system works is so complicated, because the virus is new and mutating and not fully understood and because this situation is so unusual (mass vaccination during a pandemic) a case for virtually any scenario could be made to fit the known facts. Time, and further research and studies, will tell.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on January 25, 2022, 06:49:56 PM
The day last month that Johnson announced a Covid Plan B would be activated in England, 161 deaths and 51,342 cases were reported.

Today there were 439 deaths and 94,326 cases were recorded as Plan B is withdrawn.

Distraction for the little people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on January 26, 2022, 02:50:58 PM


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60133618

***********

The number of Americans dying each day from Covid-19 now stands as high as it did during the Delta variant's peak, a grim figure that experts believe will rise.

Statistics show that an average of over 2,000 people are dying from the virus in the US every day, roughly on par with the deaths seen in late September.

According to statistics from Johns Hopkins University, the daily average of confirmed Covid-19 deaths surpassed 2,000 on 21 January and stood at 2,033 on 23 January.

That's just short of where it was at the peak of the surge in Delta variant cases in September.

But there are many more people in hospital now due to the virus than there were back then, due to much higher case loads.

The average daily number of new confirmed cases in the US far surpasses previous waves.

************

What is this....?  Just when we thought it was all getting over....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on January 26, 2022, 05:07:03 PM

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60133618

***********

The number of Americans dying each day from Covid-19 now stands as high as it did during the Delta variant's peak, a grim figure that experts believe will rise.

Statistics show that an average of over 2,000 people are dying from the virus in the US every day, roughly on par with the deaths seen in late September.

According to statistics from Johns Hopkins University, the daily average of confirmed Covid-19 deaths surpassed 2,000 on 21 January and stood at 2,033 on 23 January.

That's just short of where it was at the peak of the surge in Delta variant cases in September.

But there are many more people in hospital now due to the virus than there were back then, due to much higher case loads.

The average daily number of new confirmed cases in the US far surpasses previous waves.

************

What is this....?  Just when we thought it was all getting over....

Too many unvaxed fat people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on January 26, 2022, 08:38:05 PM
Too many unvaxed fat people.
Naturally acquired immunity protected people against Delta better than vaccines:
https://youtu.be/25-iJKPA1CA
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 01, 2022, 01:42:19 PM
And as well as lying sbout parties, they were grossly incompetent/corrupt about PPE


https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1488494435679838209.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Outrider on February 01, 2022, 02:59:54 PM
Naturally acquired immunity protected people against Delta better than vaccines: https://youtu.be/25-iJKPA1CA

Yeah, but the survival rate of vaccines is quite a bit higher than the survival rate for COVID... from the summary of the study this video is talking about:

Quote
among those who survive, previous SARS-CoV-2 infection also confers protection against severe outcomes in the event of reinfection (3,4).
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm#contribAff (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm#contribAff)

If your argument is based upon the circumstances being beneficial 'among those who survive' then you're already onto a losing argument.

O.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Walt Zingmatilder on February 01, 2022, 06:10:38 PM
Yeah, but the survival rate of vaccines is quite a bit higher than the survival rate for COVID... from the summary of the study this video is talking about:
 https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm#contribAff (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm#contribAff)

If your argument is based upon the circumstances being beneficial 'among those who survive' then you're already onto a losing argument.

O.
Yes, I do feel Spud is being a bit Social Darwinian here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on February 01, 2022, 08:44:56 PM
And as well as lying sbout parties, they were grossly incompetent/corrupt about PPE


https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1488494435679838209.html
Of-course, as suggested here all along. But, just price it in along with covid fraud and money wasted on non-working track and trace ... the public will happily pay through increased NI and tax - in exchange for a diet of recycled jokes and lies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 03, 2022, 02:03:34 PM
And more fall out in NI from the lies of Boris Johnson, and his corrupt govt

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60241608
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on February 03, 2022, 02:07:16 PM
Yeah, but the survival rate of vaccines is quite a bit higher than the survival rate for COVID... from the summary of the study this video is talking about:
 https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm#contribAff (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm#contribAff)

If your argument is based upon the circumstances being beneficial 'among those who survive' then you're already onto a losing argument.

O.
Sure, I'm aware of that, but I think that because so many people were not susceptible to severe disease, it was unnecessary (a) to lock everyone down and (b) to vaccinate everyone. That was my position from the start. I was just pointing to the data because policies seem to have been based on a mistrust of natural immunity from the get-go. For example, the requirement to have been double-jabbed to avoid quarantine, even if one had antibodies from previous infection.
(Edit: ad-o's point was probably right, although other factors are at play in the US, such as the inability of many to afford to pay for treatment to control underlying illness, leading to their increased risk of severe covid)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Outrider on February 03, 2022, 02:34:34 PM
Sure, I'm aware of that, but I think that because so many people were not susceptible to severe disease, it was unnecessary (a) to lock everyone down and (b) to vaccinate everyone.

Lock down there are arguments for and against - I think, on balance, some degree of lockdown was necessary to protect the health service capacity, but the most recent was probably not required. Vaccinations I think were a no-brainer - I'd like to live in a world that wasn't filled with anti-scientific pontificating nonsense where you'd be able to presume that the overwhelming majority of people would take up the offer, but unfortunately that's not the world we live in. The balance of risk between being vaccinated and not doesn't even justify a discussion about why we shouldn't.

Even within those valid argument areas, though, this argument is just ridiculous.

Quote
That was my position from the start. I was just pointing to the data because policies seem to have been based on a mistrust of natural immunity from the get-go.

It's not a mistrust, it's that consequences of waiting for natural immunity to build, both for vulnerable individuals and for the national infrastructure, were horrendous.

Quote
For example, the requirement to have been double-jabbed to avoid quarantine, even if one had antibodies from previous infection.

That's a pragmatic choice based on how easy it is to mass deploy reliable antibody testing; given that there's virtually no risk to having the vaccination, I don't have a problem with it being run how it was. This has already been costly enough, running a separate testing programme alongside lateral flow and PCR and the vaccination programme doesn't seem justified to pacify people taken in by palpably nonsensical disinformation campaigns.

Quote
(Edit: ad-o's point was probably right, although other factors are at play in the US, such as the inability of many to afford to pay for treatment to control underlying illness, leading to their increased risk of severe covid)

I was working on a conversation about the UK. Trying to make any kind of rational point about the US healthcare 'system' is just a non-starter!

O.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on February 03, 2022, 02:47:29 PM
Quote
Sure, I'm aware of that, but I think that because so many people were not susceptible to severe disease, it was unnecessary (a) to lock everyone down and (b) to vaccinate everyone. That was my position from the start.

And at the start we had no way of knowing who was and who wasn't susceptible to severe disease. Even now we are only just getting a handle on why some people are affected so adversely. So the only option to avoid even more deaths (and please don't forget the 150,000 + and still counting) was to lock down initially and to go for vaccination. To achieve herd immunity which is what you are basically arguing for, and have done in your long history of misinformed posting, would only have condemned many more of us to death.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on February 03, 2022, 07:23:12 PM
And at the start we had no way of knowing who was and who wasn't susceptible to severe disease. Even now we are only just getting a handle on why some people are affected so adversely. So the only option to avoid even more deaths (and please don't forget the 150,000 + and still counting) was to lock down initially and to go for vaccination. To achieve herd immunity which is what you are basically arguing for, and have done in your long history of misinformed posting, would only have condemned many more of us to death.
I notice that the number of deaths is currently quite high. That is because of the high infectiousness of Omicron. Apparently it's only because the vaccine for Omicron isn't yet approved that it hasn't been rolled out, so it looks as though the pandemic will end through the very method you say we should avoid - enough people being infected to achieve herd immunity.
One other thing: we knew quite early on that children were not severely affected. Because we locked them up we won't know whether they and healthy adults could have achieved herd immunity without the high deaths you assume.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on February 03, 2022, 08:19:26 PM
I notice that the number of deaths is currently quite high. That is because of the high infectiousness of Omicron. Apparently it's only because the vaccine for Omicron isn't yet approved that it hasn't been rolled out, so it looks as though the pandemic will end through the very method you say we should avoid - enough people being infected to achieve herd immunity.
One other thing: we knew quite early on that children were not severely affected. Because we locked them up we won't know whether they and healthy adults could have achieved herd immunity without the high deaths you assume.

Yes, we are closer to herd immunity but precisely because of the vaccine. Not because we let it rip through the country initially when there was no natural immunity.

As to not knowing, of course, we won't know the exact figures of deaths, but they clearly would have been much higher without lockdown initially.

I'll leave you with this because it does give some evidence of the difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated and how the vaccines actually work, you know as opposed to wishful fucking thinking:

https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/ng-interactive/2022/jan/28/the-simple-numbers-every-government-should-use-to-fight-anti-vaccine-misinformation

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 03, 2022, 09:35:09 PM
Not often I agree with Douglas Ross but this is indeed bonkers


https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/health/fmqs-nicola-sturgeon-defends-proposal-to-chop-bottom-off-school-doors-for-ventilation-3553576
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on February 03, 2022, 10:16:53 PM
I notice that the number of deaths is currently quite high. That is because of the high infectiousness of Omicron. Apparently it's only because the vaccine for Omicron isn't yet approved that it hasn't been rolled out, so it looks as though the pandemic will end through the very method you say we should avoid - enough people being infected to achieve herd immunity.
One other thing: we knew quite early on that children were not severely affected. Because we locked them up we won't know whether they and healthy adults could have achieved herd immunity without the high deaths you assume.

Vaccinated people who catch Covid have their immunity boosted without such serious risks, so what is happening mostly isn't the same as achieving that same level of immunity without vaccines.

Is true herd immunity possible with Omicron and the current vaccines? Since transmission still occurs how are the vulnerable protected (true herd immunity?) High population immunity isn't the same as herd immunity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on February 04, 2022, 08:52:26 AM
Vaccinated people who catch Covid have their immunity boosted without such serious risks, so what is happening mostly isn't the same as achieving that same level of immunity without vaccines.
I get this, and am aware of the proportions of deaths in unvaccinated people being much higher, as in Trent's link.

Quote
Is true herd immunity possible with Omicron and the current vaccines? Since transmission still occurs how are the vulnerable protected (true herd immunity?) High population immunity isn't the same as herd immunity.
I guess it depends on whether more immune escape occurs - already in some countries BA.2 is taking over from BA.1, for example. The thing now is that with the immune systems of so many people being exposed to proteins in the virus that are conserved between variants, that will generate a more comprehensive immunity that will hopefully control transmission.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on February 04, 2022, 09:55:40 AM
I get this, and am aware of the proportions of deaths in unvaccinated people being much higher, as in Trent's link.

So why did you say 'it looks as though the pandemic will end through the very method you say we should avoid' when what people were saying should be avoided was trying to achieve herd immunity/wide scale immunity by natural infection rather than by vaccination?

Quote
I guess it depends on whether more immune escape occurs - already in some countries BA.2 is taking over from BA.1, for example. The thing now is that with the immune systems of so many people being exposed to proteins in the virus that are conserved between variants, that will generate a more comprehensive immunity that will hopefully control transmission.

I think that the high infectivity with Omicron, and the fact that the vaccines reduce but do not prevent transmission, true herd immunity will be very hard to reach. I'd rather talk about high population immunity rather than herd immunity as the latter has a specific meaning which is different as I understand it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on February 04, 2022, 11:15:30 AM
So why did you say 'it looks as though the pandemic will end through the very method you say we should avoid' when what people were saying should be avoided was trying to achieve herd immunity/wide scale immunity by natural infection rather than by vaccination?
Because Omicron will (possibly) do just that: achieve herd/wide scale immunity by natural infection. The reason this is likely now is because the anti-omicron vaccine hasn't been made in time - by the time it's ready, most people will have been exposed. But this will be better because exposure to the whole virus generates better memory, that is effective against all variants (except those that result from antigenic shift). Had we rolled out the new vaccine already I have read that this could lead to further immune escape. So hopefully omicron will in the next month generate sufficient immunity that they do not roll it out.

Quote
I think that the high infectivity with Omicron, and the fact that the vaccines reduce but do not prevent transmission, true herd immunity will be very hard to reach. I'd rather talk about high population immunity rather than herd immunity as the latter has a specific meaning which is different as I understand it.
Possibly, yes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on February 04, 2022, 11:29:23 AM
Spud. You brought up children earlier. They are dying from Covid at a rate of 2 or 3 a week. Many more are suffering from Covid and its long-term implications.

https://bjgplife.com/our-children-are-sitting-ducks/

 There is still so much that is unknown.

Your argument seems to be to let this disease go unchecked as you have fallen for the "it's a milder version" fallacy.

Do you really think it is wise to just allow this disease to progress unchecked?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on February 04, 2022, 01:34:30 PM
Spud. You brought up children earlier.
Yes: Because they are less susceptible to severe disease than adults. But as the virus becomes more infectious they will suffer increasingly severe illness, yes.

Quote
They are dying from Covid at a rate of 2 or 3 a week. Many more are suffering from Covid and its long-term implications.

https://bjgplife.com/our-children-are-sitting-ducks/

 There is still so much that is unknown.

Your argument seems to be to let this disease go unchecked as you have fallen for the "it's a milder version" fallacy.

Do you really think it is wise to just allow this disease to progress unchecked?
Denmark has ended all restrictions, I think? The problem now is that the current vaccines do not block omicron's entry into the cell because it uses a different entry method. So for now, it's a matter of avoiding severe illness using early outpatient therapeutic intervention - the moment a person becomes ill.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on February 04, 2022, 01:38:45 PM
A good presentation by Dr Philip McMillan on breakthrough infections:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-ZzEf_ITys&t=2259s
The first 40 minutes, particularly at 30-39 minutes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on February 04, 2022, 01:59:04 PM
Quote
Denmark has ended all restrictions, I think?

And??

If someone walked off the end of a pier would you follow them?

Vaccination is one way of avoiding severe illness, even with it being less effective against Omicron.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Outrider on February 04, 2022, 02:51:32 PM
The problem now is that the current vaccines do not block omicron's entry into the cell because it uses a different entry method.

Not quite, as I understand it. The method is the same, the body's ability to identify Omicron and isolate and attack it is based on the individual's response to the vaccine, and some people's response is not adequately tailored, so the vaccine is effective in a smaller number of cases. It's still fairly effective compared to no vaccination at all, and the other variants against which the vacccines are even more effective are still out there.

Quote
So for now, it's a matter of avoiding severe illness using early outpatient therapeutic intervention - the moment a person becomes ill.
No, now it's a case of balancing common sense preventive measures, including but not limited to vaccinations and some degree of restrictions on movement, mingling, and other measures like mask-wearing, against the ongoing effects of those measures, like social isolation for the vulnerable, economic problems (and their associated health and wellbeing implications) etc.

O.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on February 04, 2022, 07:37:34 PM
The problem now is that the current vaccines do not block omicron's entry into the cell because it uses a different entry method.

The antibodies block the virus spike protein from attaching to the ACE2  receptors. From what I've read, Omicron still needs to attach to ACE2 receptors but unlike earlier variants it favours a different method of cell entry (Endocytosis) but the reduced vaccine protection is to do with the changes in the virus spike protein rather than the method of entering cells. The different entry method does mean it is more infectious (as it doesn't require the presence of the TMPR552 protease), more of an upper respiratory disease (for the same reason) and does less damage to lungs (less bunching of infected cells - syncytia).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on February 05, 2022, 10:46:25 AM
And??

If someone walked off the end of a pier would you follow them?

Vaccination is one way of avoiding severe illness, even with it being less effective against Omicron.
They have a high vaccination level and are doing children, they've fully jabbed 31% of 5-11 year-olds.
Dr John Campbell, who I follow a bit on YouTube, thinks that we can't avoid exposure to Omicron, despite restrictions. So he thinks Denmark are doing the right thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on February 05, 2022, 10:47:30 AM
They have a high vaccination level and are doing children, they've fully jabbed 31% of 5-11 year-olds.
Dr John Campbell, who I follow a bit on YouTube, thinks that we can't avoid exposure to Omicron, despite restrictions. So he thinks Denmark are doing the right thing.

There you are then. Vaccination works.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on February 05, 2022, 11:50:06 AM
There you are then. Vaccination works.
Yes it does, but in principle that is only if it blocks transmission and is done well before exposure to the virus.
Your link in #4936 discusses the proportions of mortality in vaxed and unvaxed, and I am aware of this as I have followed the Vaccination Surveillance reports a bit. In response I would mention that if mass vaccination has accelerated the spread of "more infectious variants" due to the above principle not being followed, then of course, the unvaxed will be more at risk. If you say "well they should get the vaccine", that won't really do. It's like new cars having extra bright headlights and blinding drivers of older cars which don't have tinted windscreens. It's a bit off to expect them to buy a new car with a tinted windscreen or expensive tinted glasses, especially when that brightness would never have been legal 20 years ago.
But I'm not 100% convinced that mass vaccination has done this, so the jury is still out for me.
If true, then it means that we should only vaccinate those most at risk. If we vaccinated everyone for flu, during the flu season, would that be wise?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on February 10, 2022, 02:10:03 PM
The antibodies block the virus spike protein from attaching to the ACE2  receptors. From what I've read, Omicron still needs to attach to ACE2 receptors but unlike earlier variants it favours a different method of cell entry (Endocytosis) but the reduced vaccine protection is to do with the changes in the virus spike protein rather than the method of entering cells. The different entry method does mean it is more infectious (as it doesn't require the presence of the TMPR552 protease), more of an upper respiratory disease (for the same reason) and does less damage to lungs (less bunching of infected cells - syncytia).
Thanks - I would like to read more about why it does less damage to the lungs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on February 10, 2022, 05:49:42 PM
Thanks - I would like to read more about why it does less damage to the lungs.

You could try:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34951565/

Full text at: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8774049/

Though maybe Maeght has a different one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on February 10, 2022, 06:52:25 PM
Thanks - I would like to read more about why it does less damage to the lungs.

There are various papers such as the one linked to by Udayana (thanks for that) but this YouTube video explains things very well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDu-PHrgliQ&ab_channel=DrbeenMedicalLectures (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDu-PHrgliQ&ab_channel=DrbeenMedicalLectures)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on February 11, 2022, 10:49:30 AM
drbeen is good- thank you.  Thanks for the paper, Uday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on February 13, 2022, 10:08:18 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/12/scientists-plead-caution-covid-restrictions-lifted-england

Johnson, has never, of course, followed the old saying "let caution be your watchword" in the whole of his life. So why should he apply it to a pesky virus?

The quote that jumped out at me from this was:

 
Quote
This point was backed by virologist Prof Lawrence Young of Warwick University. “People seem to think there has been a linear evolution of the virus from Alpha to Beta to Delta to Omicron,” he told the Observer. “But that is simply not the case. The idea that virus variants will continue to get milder is wrong. A new one could turn out to be even more pathogenic than the Delta variant, for example.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on February 13, 2022, 06:37:53 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/12/scientists-plead-caution-covid-restrictions-lifted-england

Johnson, has never, of course, followed the old saying "let caution be your watchword" in the whole of his life. So why should he apply it to a pesky virus?

The quote that jumped out at me from this was:

The idea that viruses always mutate to be milder is a myth.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on February 14, 2022, 12:27:27 PM
The idea that viruses always mutate to be milder is a myth.
When it's human beings you infect, being mild is a very good evolutionary trait. We will see mutations that make the virus milder and we'll see mutations that make it more dangerous, but we'll stamp out the dangerous ones and ignore the mild ones.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on February 14, 2022, 03:10:14 PM
When it's human beings you infect, being mild is a very good evolutionary trait. We will see mutations that make the virus milder and we'll see mutations that make it more dangerous, but we'll stamp out the dangerous ones and ignore the mild ones.

Only to a point. A virus which kills everyone before they can pass it on won't last long but beyond that there isn't much selective pressure to make a milder variant become dominant surely. The Prof from Imperial (who's name escaped me) was on the radio recently and said 'they' (his team i guess) had discussed this and concluded that there is no ruke that viruses inevitably become milder. It can happenn but doesn't necessarily happen he said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on February 14, 2022, 03:27:35 PM
Only to a point. A virus which kills everyone before they can pass it on won't last long but beyond that there isn't much selective pressure to make a milder variant become dominant surely. The Prof from Imperial (who's name escaped me) was on the radio recently and said 'they' (his team i guess) had discussed this and concluded that there is no ruke that viruses inevitably become milder. It can happenn but doesn't necessarily happen he said.

I didn't say it was inevitable, I said it's a good evolutionary trait.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on February 14, 2022, 05:31:06 PM
I didn't say it was inevitable, I said it's a good evolutionary trait.

No, you didn't, but some do. I was making a general point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on February 20, 2022, 12:49:06 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60453566

Queen tests positive for Covid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on February 20, 2022, 02:31:02 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60453566

Queen tests positive for Covid.
My thoughts are with Brian, Roger and the other one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 20, 2022, 03:17:46 PM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60453566

Queen tests positive for Covid.


https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1495409472440840192?t=sqCifIegdsVytkO7_iM6bw&s=19
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on February 21, 2022, 12:25:21 PM

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1495409472440840192?t=sqCifIegdsVytkO7_iM6bw&s=19

What I don't understand is why the papers are making such a fuss over the fact that the Queen is continuing with light duties. I tested positive last week and I'm continuing with all my duties, even though I ran out of milk to put in my coffee on Saturday and I couldn't pop down to the corner shop to get more. Not a hint of my tireless dedication from the Daily Mail.

Admittedly all my duties involve sitting in front of a computer screen and typing things in to a keyboard.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on February 21, 2022, 04:16:44 PM
drbeen is good- thank you.  Thanks for the paper, Uday.

Thought this was interesting Spud. Talks about how Omincron seems to be more susceptible to innate immunity than Delta etc

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/omicrons-surprising-anatomy-explains-why-it-is-wildly-contagious/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on February 22, 2022, 03:00:14 PM
Thought this was interesting Spud. Talks about how Omincron seems to be more susceptible to innate immunity than Delta etc

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/omicrons-surprising-anatomy-explains-why-it-is-wildly-contagious/
Thanks Maeght, was going to bring this up actually because Geert's theory is that if our naturally acquired and vaccine-generated immunity is now ineffective against omicron, then they no longer out-compete our innate antibodies, allowing the latter to bind better to and neutralize it. Will read your link.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on February 23, 2022, 12:50:13 PM
Thought this was interesting Spud. Talks about how Omincron seems to be more susceptible to innate immunity than Delta etc

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/omicrons-surprising-anatomy-explains-why-it-is-wildly-contagious/
Thank you, very clear and informative.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on February 26, 2022, 11:34:10 AM
...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 10, 2022, 10:21:08 PM
Ooh dear


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-60698453
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on March 11, 2022, 09:53:19 AM
Ooh dear


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-60698453

It looks like England is on an uptick too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 25, 2022, 04:33:34 PM
It looks like England is on an uptick too.
Indeed


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60872687
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 25, 2022, 05:08:11 PM
Bloody big uptick.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 25, 2022, 06:47:51 PM
But in terms of symptoms and severity, how bad is it compared with seasonal flu, colds etc?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 25, 2022, 07:14:04 PM
But in terms of symptoms and severity, how bad is it compared with seasonal flu, colds etc?

Hard to do a direct comparison but 2018 was one of the worst years for Flu in recent times and we topped out at 30,000 deaths for the year (that figure doesn't include Scotland or N.Ireland so add a bit on)

We are currently running at 160 - 170 deaths a day.

If that doesn't improve we are on course for around 60,000 deaths this year, which in terms of severity is pretty bad.

Also, much more capacity is taken up in hospitals with those that are seriously affected but don't die, and the knock-on effects that has for other illnesses with longer waiting times due to the effects of the pandemic and now due to the lack of staff because they are also off work with Covid.

So still a lot fucking worse.

Still, I am reassured it is all going to be ok because my pal Saj has got the figures under constant review.  ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 25, 2022, 07:19:52 PM
We are currently running at 160 - 170 deaths a day.
Apparently a lot of these do not die from Covid, though - they happen to test positive while in hospital with other illnesses?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 25, 2022, 07:34:35 PM
Apparently a lot of these do not die from Covid, though - they happen to test positive while in hospital with other illnesses?

So some people assert. Others will assert that the figures are actually underrepresented. I think it is probably as accurate as you are going to get them.

If some people are determined to see it as a mild virus, nothing to see here, move along now, then there's not a lot that will persuade them otherwise and the government is clearly of that mindset. So we've all got our FREEDOM to go out and infect who we want without worrying about the consequences.

I love libertarian capitalism.

Fucking love it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on March 25, 2022, 07:41:52 PM
Apparently a lot of these do not die from Covid, though - they happen to test positive while in hospital with other illnesses?

If you look at the numbers who died with Covid-19 mentioned on their death certificate i wouldn't say 'a lot do not die from Covid'.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 27, 2022, 10:21:07 AM
Fauci on Sophie Raworth's Sunday Morning programme

- I can't see that there's much else to say.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 27, 2022, 10:44:43 AM
If you look at the numbers who died with Covid-19 mentioned on their death certificate i wouldn't say 'a lot do not die from Covid'.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths)
Were they symptomatic, though? As far as I know,a doctor has to mention covid on the certificate even if they are asymptomatic, though I might be wrong.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on March 27, 2022, 02:35:37 PM
Were they symptomatic, though? As far as I know,a doctor has to mention covid on the certificate even if they are asymptomatic, though I might be wrong.

I think they have to put anything on the death certificate which they think contributed to the person's death, nothing more than that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 28, 2022, 08:23:42 PM
Hard to do a direct comparison but 2018 was one of the worst years for Flu in recent times and we topped out at 30,000 deaths for the year (that figure doesn't include Scotland or N.Ireland so add a bit on)

We are currently running at 160 - 170 deaths a day.

If that doesn't improve we are on course for around 60,000 deaths this year, which in terms of severity is pretty bad.

Also, much more capacity is taken up in hospitals with those that are seriously affected but don't die, and the knock-on effects that has for other illnesses with longer waiting times due to the effects of the pandemic and now due to the lack of staff because they are also off work with Covid.

So still a lot fucking worse.

Still, I am reassured it is all going to be ok because my pal Saj has got the figures under constant review.  ::)
Are we seeing lower numbers of Influenza infections than usual? That would make the above yearly covid figure less of a worry.
I think we will be told if the NHS begins to be overstretched. The objective of any measures they said was to flatten the curve, thus allowing the health service to help people recover and develop immunity.
That said, I read that there is currently negative efficacy for the vaccines with regard to infection rate. The more cases of infection, the higher the risk of severe illness, so there may come a point where infection prevention measures are needed again. More mass vaccination of healthy people may again only lead to short term positive efficacy. I think we are on the right track without that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 29, 2022, 11:04:50 AM
Are we seeing lower numbers of Influenza infections than usual? That would make the above yearly covid figure less of a worry.
I think we will be told if the NHS begins to be overstretched. The objective of any measures they said was to flatten the curve, thus allowing the health service to help people recover and develop immunity.
That said, I read that there is currently negative efficacy for the vaccines with regard to infection rate. The more cases of infection, the higher the risk of severe illness, so there may come a point where infection prevention measures are needed again. More mass vaccination of healthy people may again only lead to short term positive efficacy. I think we are on the right track without that.

Hurrah for FREEDOM.

Down with CARING.

Let's all get PISSED.

Let's ignore the DEATHS, the LIES, the stinking CORRUPTION.

INDIVIDUAL FREEDOM trumps COLLECTIVE RESPONSIBILITY in this Brave New World.

"Carry on Infecting."

A much-underrated offering in the oeuvre of Peter Rogers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 29, 2022, 12:37:46 PM
Are we seeing lower numbers of Influenza infections than usual? That would make the above yearly covid figure less of a worry.
I think we will be told if the NHS begins to be overstretched. The objective of any measures they said was to flatten the curve, thus allowing the health service to help people recover and develop immunity.
That said, I read that there is currently negative efficacy for the vaccines with regard to infection rate. The more cases of infection, the higher the risk of severe illness, so there may come a point where infection prevention measures are needed again. More mass vaccination of healthy people may again only lead to short term positive efficacy. I think we are on the right track without that.

hmm.. an interesting kind of post that I have been noticing on the odd thread here or there on the forum ...

Regression to the mean is a well known concept in statistics ... I propose we could label this kind of argument as "regression to bollocks" ?

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 30, 2022, 09:02:27 PM
Good article that needs serious consideration by the "it's all over" brigade and "let's get back to normal" morons.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/30/uk-near-record-covid-cases-three-myths-omicron-pandemic
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 31, 2022, 09:10:39 AM
Good article that needs serious consideration by the "it's all over" brigade and "let's get back to normal" morons.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/30/uk-near-record-covid-cases-three-myths-omicron-pandemic
Re myth 1, I note that it says the NHS is now under considerable strain. So this might indicate reintroducing infection prevention measures. Also it says that about half of hospital admissions with covid were primarily admitted for something else.
Re myth 2, I think Omicron is milder: as we have discussed, it doesn't infect the lung as easily as previous variants. Whether it is 'evolving to become milder' is to do with Omicron springing from a much earlier variant and whether it jumped to animals in the process, which is not known for certain. There is also the immune response to Omicron, which may be more effective (as a result of vaccinal antibodies not outcompeting innate IgM so much), and thus contribute to the reduced severity of Omicron.
Re myth 3, vaccination across all age groups has driven immune escape, imo. Some good news, to consider: naturally acquired immunity protects well against severe disease and death in Omicron patients (https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/97108#:~:text=However%2C%20no%20reinfections%20resulted%20in,New%20England%20Journal%20of%20Medicine.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 31, 2022, 09:35:19 AM
Quote
I think Omicron is milder less severe: as we have discussed, it doesn't infect the lung as easily as previous variants. Whether it is 'evolving to become milder' is to do with Omicron springing from a much earlier variant and whether it jumped to animals in the process, which is not known for certain. Th

As the article makes clear the variants do not all follow a linear development, they do not stem from the preceding variant necessarily, therefore we should not be assuming that all future variants will be less severe. One of the ways to lessen the possibility of variants is to limit infection.

Do you see any indication within our current government's thinking that they are in the least bit interested in limiting infection?

Do you see the majority of the public doing anything to limit infection?

We are getting the response badly wrong here.

Immune escape is happening largely because we are allowing the infection rate to soar and doing fuck all about it.


Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 31, 2022, 04:46:13 PM
As the article makes clear the variants do not all follow a linear development, they do not stem from the preceding variant necessarily, therefore we should not be assuming that all future variants will be less severe. One of the ways to lessen the possibility of variants is to limit infection.

Do you see any indication within our current government's thinking that they are in the least bit interested in limiting infection?

Do you see the majority of the public doing anything to limit infection?

We are getting the response badly wrong here.
I think the intention of the government and public was to limit infection by means of mass vaccination, but unfortunately that seems to be backfiring - see below.

Quote
Immune escape is happening largely because we are allowing the infection rate to soar and doing fuck all about it.
(Disclaimer: as far as I am concerned, the following is theory, but makes sense enough that I decided not to be vaccinated).

Immune escape is happening because the majority of people have vaccine-elicited antibodies that cannot themselves prevent infection any longer, since they are designed to stick to the spike protein, which has a high mutation rate; they are nonetheless still produced by B cells when a vaccinated person is exposed to a new variant, they stick to the virus more readily than the innate antibodies, the first line of defense, thus out-competing the latter and rendering that person more prone to infection.

Had we vaccinated only the vulnerable groups, there would not have been such high surges of anti-spike antibodies in the population that only viruses with mutated spike protein could survive.

Healthy people who got sick and recovered would have developed antibodies not just to the spike protein but to other proteins in the virus that do not mutate (ie they are 'conserved'). This would have reduced the transmission of more highly infectious variants, so that they took much longer to become dominant, which would result in slowing of the infection rate and the virus becoming endemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 31, 2022, 04:54:14 PM
I think the intention of the government and public was to limit infection by means of mass vaccination,
The main reason for vaccination was to reduce disease severity, rather than infections, so that even if people are becoming infected they will have milder symptoms, are less likely to be hospitalised and far less likely to die.

but unfortunately that seems to be backfiring - see below.
Non-sense, the vaccination programme has worked exceptionally well. Just imagine the numbers of deaths we'd have had without the vaccination programme, noting that vaccination does also reduce (but not eliminate) transmissibility, likelihood of infection and, critically, the number of viral replication events. Mutations, that may drive variants of concern are random events - the more replication of the virus the greater the likelihood of mutations and therefore the greater the likelihood of variants of concern.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on March 31, 2022, 04:56:22 PM
Healthy people who got sick and recovered ...
I'll stop you right there - without vaccination we'd have had far, far more healthy people who got sick and did not recover - in other words they died.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 31, 2022, 06:59:12 PM
I'll stop you right there - without vaccination we'd have had far, far more healthy people who got sick and did not recover - in other words they died.
No - according to the study from the US, 94%(?) of mortality was in people with co-morbidities.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 31, 2022, 07:15:41 PM
The main reason for vaccination was to reduce disease severity, rather than infections, so that even if people are becoming infected they will have milder symptoms, are less likely to be hospitalised and far less likely to die.
Non-sense, the vaccination programme has worked exceptionally well. Just imagine the numbers of deaths we'd have had without the vaccination programme, noting that vaccination does also reduce (but not eliminate) transmissibility, likelihood of infection and, critically, the number of viral replication events. Mutations, that may drive variants of concern are random events - the more replication of the virus the greater the likelihood of mutations and therefore the greater the likelihood of variants of concern.
The beneft from the vaccines is temporary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on March 31, 2022, 07:35:35 PM
No - according to the study from the US, 94%(?) of mortality was in people with co-morbidities.

What study?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 31, 2022, 07:40:54 PM
What study?

These are the figures he is referring to. As usual, it is more complex than those who adopt tin foil wish to admit. Scrub that last bit - aren't bright enough to understand.

https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-comorbidities-coviddeaths-idUSL1N2TU22X
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on March 31, 2022, 07:47:28 PM
These are the figures he is referring to. As usual, it is more complex than those who adopt tin foil wish to admit. Scrub that last bit - aren't bright enough to understand.

https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-comorbidities-coviddeaths-idUSL1N2TU22X

Thanks. Agree with your comment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on March 31, 2022, 07:57:36 PM
I think the intention of the government and public was to limit infection by means of mass vaccination, but unfortunately that seems to be backfiring - see below.
(Disclaimer: as far as I am concerned, the following is theory, but makes sense enough that I decided not to be vaccinated).

Immune escape is happening because the majority of people have vaccine-elicited antibodies that cannot themselves prevent infection any longer, since they are designed to stick to the spike protein, which has a high mutation rate; they are nonetheless still produced by B cells when a vaccinated person is exposed to a new variant, they stick to the virus more readily than the innate antibodies, the first line of defense, thus out-competing the latter and rendering that person more prone to infection.

Had we vaccinated only the vulnerable groups, there would not have been such high surges of anti-spike antibodies in the population that only viruses with mutated spike protein could survive.

Healthy people who got sick and recovered would have developed antibodies not just to the spike protein but to other proteins in the virus that do not mutate (ie they are 'conserved'). This would have reduced the transmission of more highly infectious variants, so that they took much longer to become dominant, which would result in slowing of the infection rate and the virus becoming endemic.

So according to your 'theory' reinfections should be lower in unvaccinated people, yes?

According to this paper the reverse is true. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.19.22271112v1.full (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.19.22271112v1.full)

'Omicron BA.2 reinfections after either Delta or BA.1 initial infections, were mainly observed among young individuals below the age of 30 and the majority of these cases were not vaccinated, further emphasizing the enhanced immunity obtained by the combination of vaccination and infection compared to infection induced immunity only. '

Comments?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on March 31, 2022, 08:25:18 PM
I think the intention of the government and public was to limit infection by means of mass vaccination, but unfortunately that seems to be backfiring - see below.
(Disclaimer: as far as I am concerned, the following is theory, but makes sense enough that I decided not to be vaccinated).

Immune escape is happening because the majority of people have vaccine-elicited antibodies that cannot themselves prevent infection any longer, since they are designed to stick to the spike protein, which has a high mutation rate; they are nonetheless still produced by B cells when a vaccinated person is exposed to a new variant, they stick to the virus more readily than the innate antibodies, the first line of defense, thus out-competing the latter and rendering that person more prone to infection.

Had we vaccinated only the vulnerable groups, there would not have been such high surges of anti-spike antibodies in the population that only viruses with mutated spike protein could survive.

Healthy people who got sick and recovered would have developed antibodies not just to the spike protein but to other proteins in the virus that do not mutate (ie they are 'conserved'). This would have reduced the transmission of more highly infectious variants, so that they took much longer to become dominant, which would result in slowing of the infection rate and the virus becoming endemic.

What are you referring to when you say innate antibodies?

Edit; okay Natural Antibodies - https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2017.00872/full (https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2017.00872/full) Have discussed this before a while back but had forgotten!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 01, 2022, 10:17:53 AM
Interesting paper on the effect of Covid measures on flu variants

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29402-5
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on April 01, 2022, 03:20:30 PM
This is not good

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60953501

one person in thirteen has coronavirus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on April 01, 2022, 06:50:05 PM
So according to your 'theory' reinfections should be lower in unvaccinated people, yes?

According to this paper the reverse is true. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.19.22271112v1.full (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.19.22271112v1.full)

'Omicron BA.2 reinfections after either Delta or BA.1 initial infections, were mainly observed among young individuals below the age of 30 and the majority of these cases were not vaccinated, further emphasizing the enhanced immunity obtained by the combination of vaccination and infection compared to infection induced immunity only. '

Comments?
The two positive samples of participants had to be between 20 and 60 days apart. According to Geert's talks a year ago, this is the time after the initial infection is cleared during which a suboptimal immune response occurs - short-lived antibodies specific to the antigen. These have higher affinity to the virus than innate antibodies - thus preventing the latter from binding if the person is re-exposed during this 2 month period - but do not neutralize the virus, so that it can re-infect the person.
The first infection is likely to be mild, since the innate antibodies are not inhibited as they are in the reinfection, which is likely to be more symptomatic.
After the reinfection, longer lasting immunity is built up.
The high infectiousness of Omicron makes it much more likely that a person will be re-exposed in this way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on April 01, 2022, 07:01:55 PM
The two positive samples of participants had to be between 20 and 60 days apart. According to Geert's talks a year ago, this is the time after the initial infection is cleared during which a suboptimal immune response occurs - short-lived antibodies specific to the antigen. These have higher affinity to the virus than innate antibodies - thus preventing the latter from binding if the person is re-exposed during this 2 month period - but do not neutralize the virus, so that it can re-infect the person.
The first infection is likely to be mild, since the innate antibodies are not inhibited as they are in the reinfection, which is likely to be more symptomatic.
After the reinfection, longer lasting immunity is built up.
The high infectiousness of Omicron makes it much more likely that a person will be re-exposed in this way.

Is there actually any evidence of this?

'Despite the fact that natural antibodies differ in their function from adaptive antibodies, they are polyreactive and they detect autoantigens and new antigenic determinants.'

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6384419/ (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6384419/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on April 01, 2022, 07:23:53 PM
These are the figures he is referring to. As usual, it is more complex than those who adopt tin foil wish to admit. Scrub that last bit - aren't bright enough to understand.

https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-comorbidities-coviddeaths-idUSL1N2TU22X
I was not trying to prove that the number of coronavirus deaths in the country has been significantly overstated, as your link says. I perhaps should have said that if we had vaccinated those with comorbidities (like those in the study linked to in your link), this may have reduced the deaths in those people while allowing those in good health to develop herd immunity. Like we do with the flu vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on April 01, 2022, 08:34:22 PM
Is there actually any evidence of this?

'Despite the fact that natural antibodies differ in their function from adaptive antibodies, they are polyreactive and they detect autoantigens and new antigenic determinants.'

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6384419/ (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6384419/)
Good question; in his videos he talks as though it is an established fact but then on his website it is listed as a critical unanswered question. So I have sent a message asking him to clarify.
Meanwhile, just came across this:
Not so fast: adaptive suppression of innate immunity (https://www.nature.com/articles/nm1007-1142b)
"T cells of the adaptive immune system have now been shown to suppress overzealous early innate responses to infection that can lead to 'cytokine storm'–mediated death"
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on April 01, 2022, 08:43:01 PM
Good question; in his videos he talks as though it is an established fact but then on his website it is listed as a critical unanswered question. So I have sent a message asking him to clarify.
Meanwhile, just came across this:
Not so fast: adaptive suppression of innate immunity (https://www.nature.com/articles/nm1007-1142b)
"T cells of the adaptive immune system have now been shown to suppress overzealous early innate responses to infection that can lead to 'cytokine storm'–mediated death"

Will be interesting to hear an answer.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on April 01, 2022, 08:46:21 PM
Good question; in his videos he talks as though it is an established fact but then on his website it is listed as a critical unanswered question. So I have sent a message asking him to clarify.
Meanwhile, just came across this:
Not so fast: adaptive suppression of innate immunity (https://www.nature.com/articles/nm1007-1142b)
"T cells of the adaptive immune system have now been shown to suppress overzealous early innate responses to infection that can lead to 'cytokine storm'–mediated death"

There is a lot about the innate immune system here https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2012.00066/full (https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2012.00066/full)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on April 02, 2022, 12:55:07 PM
There is a lot about the innate immune system here https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2012.00066/full (https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2012.00066/full)
Rather a lot to read! Had a scan though, thanks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on April 02, 2022, 12:56:26 PM
In a recent interview, Vanden Bossche was talking about the belief that the high infectiousness of Omicron could help us build herd immunity, because so many people are catching it and becoming immune. He said this is going to put high evolutionary pressure on the virus, and a new variant that can evade this immunity will become dominant. It will be similar to the effect of having most of the population vaccinated (and generating antibodies) in a short space of time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on April 02, 2022, 12:57:52 PM
The beneft from the vaccines is temporary.
So is the benefit from immunity derived from infection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on April 04, 2022, 12:11:37 AM
So is the benefit from immunity derived from infection.
Which is probably because the virus will be likely to have mutated before the immune system is exposed to it again, so it makes sense to have a short-lived  antibody response in the event of mild infection.
But apparently the innate immune system can retain a memory of the virus, so it will be updated each time we are exposed to a new strain.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on April 04, 2022, 09:16:33 AM
But apparently the innate immune system can retain a memory of the virus, so it will be updated each time we are exposed to a new strain.
Non-sense - the whole point about the innate immune system is that it non-specific and isn't adaptive - hence the distinction between innate immune system and the adaptive immune system.

And of course the other issue is that the innate immune system is pretty poor as a line of defence, hence the need for adaptive immunity.

So you will always get an innate immune response to a new viral infection, but that alone will provide a poor barrier to serious infection, disease and death. You will also always get an adaptive immune response which is better but takes time to kick in resulting in the risk of severe disease. Hence the benefit of vaccination which kicks the adaptive immune system into action decoupled from viral infection, meaning that if the virus is encountered you get a more rapid and stronger adaptive immune response which will reduce the likelihood of infection taking hold, reduce the likelihood of severe disease and reduce the likelihood of death.

But another massive benefit of being vaccinated is that the earlier and more robust immune response will reduce the number of viral replicative events and this number is directly related to the likelihood of mutations during replication, some of which may confer the virus to be more transmissible or more virulent and therefore be variants of concern.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on April 04, 2022, 10:13:09 AM
Which is probably because the virus will be likely to have mutated before the immune system is exposed to it again, so it makes sense to have a short-lived  antibody response in the event of mild infection.
But apparently the innate immune system can retain a memory of the virus, so it will be updated each time we are exposed to a new strain.

You haven't been reading the links I've provided f you think that Spud.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on April 04, 2022, 10:15:12 AM
Non-sense - the whole point about the innate immune system is that it non-specific and isn't adaptive - hence the distinction between innate immune system and the adaptive immune system.

And of course the other issue is that the innate immune system is pretty poor as a line of defence, hence the need for adaptive immunity.

So you will always get an innate immune response to a new viral infection, but that alone will provide a poor barrier to serious infection, disease and death. You will also always get an adaptive immune response which is better but takes time to kick in resulting in the risk of severe disease. Hence the benefit of vaccination which kicks the adaptive immune system into action decoupled from viral infection, meaning that if the virus is encountered you get a more rapid and stronger adaptive immune response which will reduce the likelihood of infection taking hold, reduce the likelihood of severe disease and reduce the likelihood of death.

But another massive benefit of being vaccinated is that the earlier and more robust immune response will reduce the number of viral replicative events and this number is directly related to the likelihood of mutations during replication, some of which may confer the virus to be more transmissible or more virulent and therefore be variants of concern.

Absolutely. Was going to write something similar but you did it much better than I could have, so won't try to repeat it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on April 04, 2022, 12:16:25 PM
Non-sense - the whole point about the innate immune system is that it non-specific and isn't adaptive - hence the distinction between innate immune system and the adaptive immune system.
FYI, innate training (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0285-6#:~:text=The%20concept%20of%20trained%20immunity,to%20a%20non%2Dactivated%20state.)
"activation of the innate immune system can also result in enhanced responsiveness to subsequent triggers. This process has been termed ‘trained immunity’, a de facto innate immune memory. "
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on April 04, 2022, 02:38:08 PM
FYI, innate training (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0285-6#:~:text=The%20concept%20of%20trained%20immunity,to%20a%20non%2Dactivated%20state.)
"activation of the innate immune system can also result in enhanced responsiveness to subsequent triggers. This process has been termed ‘trained immunity’, a de facto innate immune memory. "


A lot of interesting ideas there and a lot more to be found about it on the internet of course. Interesting that it talks about giving vaccines early to train the innate immune response.

Edit: Read this article https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2018.00799/full (https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2018.00799/full)

' In general, although debatable, innate memory is considered as a non-specific short-lived phenomenon, as opposed to adaptive memory that is long-lived and highly specific.'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on April 05, 2022, 11:22:02 AM
Is there actually any evidence of this?
Back to this question; I haven't had a reply to my email yet, but I had some thoughts.

The reason he has concluded that antigen-specific antibodies can suppress innate antibodies from binding to covid-19, seems to be related to the observation that during the first phase of the pandemic, children were always asymptomatic when infected, but when infected later on they developed symptoms and illness.

Children were not symptomatic early on because they have high levels of natural antibodies. Because these can recognize a wide range of pathogens they are able to bind to covid-19.

Because they had no previous exposure to Covid-19, they hadn't yet made antigen-specific antibodies. But upon first exposure they did then mount a suboptimal antibody response, and these antibodies would be gone within 2 months, as occurs after a first vaccination.

Some children would be re-exposed to the virus while they had these suboptimal antibodies. At this point the children developed symptoms and illness. He says that the reason for this must be that the higher strength of binding of the antigen-specific antibodies enabled them to bind better than the less specific innate antibodies could do.

While suppressing the innate antibodies, the antigen-specific antibodies, being of low quality and quantity, failed to neutralize the virus and thus allowed it to bind to ACE2 and infect host cells, so that these children developed symptomatic illness.

We do have evidence that suboptimal antibodies can bind to a virus but not neutralize it. They are called 'non-neutralizing antibodies'.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on April 05, 2022, 12:27:54 PM
The reason he has concluded that antigen-specific antibodies can suppress innate antibodies from binding to covid-19, seems to be related to the observation that during the first phase of the pandemic, children were always asymptomatic when infected, but when infected later on they developed symptoms and illness.
You do realise how non-sensical that is.

In the first phase of the pandemic we didn't have testing (certainly not widespread testing), so the only way we 'knew' someone was infected was because of their symptoms. So the notion that in the first phase of the pandemic you could know who was infected by asymptomatic is non-sense. You simply didn't know as firstly there was no testing (and therefore you couldn't know unless someone was symptomatic) and then testing was limited to confirming infection in symptomatic cases - so again you never have a positive test for an asymptomatic case.

So Spud, you are just talking non-sense.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on April 05, 2022, 02:22:16 PM
Professor,
It doesn't matter. The point is that children weren't affected at the start of the pandemic
 This would be explained by their good innate immunity.
Do stop being so patronising  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on April 05, 2022, 02:35:26 PM
Professor,
It doesn't matter. The point is that children weren't affected at the start of the pandemic
 This would be explained by their good innate immunity.
Do stop being so patronising  :)
I'm not being patronising - I am simply pointing out that it is completely non-sensical to claim that infected children at the start of the pandemic were asymptomatic as we couldn't know that they were infected as we had no tests and were relying on symptoms, or slightly later tests were only used to confirm symptomatic cases.

It does matter, as you cannot make a claim about whether children were or not symptomatic early on if you could not know whether they were infected or not. How would you tell between an infected asymptomatic kid and a non infected asymptomatic kid? You couldn't.

And i think you are also adding two and two and making about one thousand. Sure there is evidence that more recently children represent a larger proportion of those with reasonably severe symptoms or even being hospitalised. But remember this is proportional and the obvious explanation is not that children (who were the last to be vaccinated and many still aren't) are being more affected, but that the adult population (who are by and large vaccinated) are being less affected, hence the proportion of children gets larger.

The data suggest (as all the data do) that the vaccine is positive, not negative.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on April 05, 2022, 02:51:39 PM
The point is that children weren't affected at the start of the pandemic
But they were - it is just that the numbers were being overwhelmed by older and particularly vulnerable people being hospitalised and dying. Now that vaccination has reduced the severity for most of the population, we perhaps become more aware of children getting covid. This doesn't mean there are more cases in children nor that they are more severe - indeed the evidence seems to be the opposite - e.g. this from the BMJ on the very youngest children from Jan 2022:

'And the indications are that children admitted to hospital with omicron are even less sick, as they require less support than children admitted earlier in the pandemic and are discharged earlier. Oxygen use by children aged under 1 admitted in the past four weeks for whom data are available was 12%, compared with 22.5% in the first wave of the pandemic. Admission to intensive care was 9.9% (v 14%), use of mechanical ventilation was 2% (v 5.8%), use of non-invasive ventilation was 2% (v 7.2%), and mean length of stay was 1.7 days (v 6.6 days).


This would be explained by their good innate immunity.
This could be an explanation if the underlying assumption were true (that children are being affected more severely by covid now compared to earlier in the pandemic) but that doesn't seem to be the case. And even if it were there are many other explanations that are more likely explanations that some scientifically illiterate appeal to declining innate immunity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on April 05, 2022, 03:03:02 PM
The point is that children weren't affected at the start of the pandemic
Nope

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2304688-why-omicron-isnt-more-severe-in-kids-despite-rise-in-hospitalisations/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 05, 2022, 06:22:52 PM
Remember it's all over. At least that's what the government wants you to think:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/05/i-lowered-my-guard-four-people-on-catching-covid-for-the-first-time

"Living with Covid" is a useless piece of spin if you don't do anything to facilitate living with Covid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on April 05, 2022, 07:50:10 PM
Back to this question; I haven't had a reply to my email yet, but I had some thoughts.

The reason he has concluded that antigen-specific antibodies can suppress innate antibodies from binding to covid-19, seems to be related to the observation that during the first phase of the pandemic, children were always asymptomatic when infected, but when infected later on they developed symptoms and illness.

Children were not symptomatic early on because they have high levels of natural antibodies. Because these can recognize a wide range of pathogens they are able to bind to covid-19.

Because they had no previous exposure to Covid-19, they hadn't yet made antigen-specific antibodies. But upon first exposure they did then mount a suboptimal antibody response, and these antibodies would be gone within 2 months, as occurs after a first vaccination.

Some children would be re-exposed to the virus while they had these suboptimal antibodies. At this point the children developed symptoms and illness. He says that the reason for this must be that the higher strength of binding of the antigen-specific antibodies enabled them to bind better than the less specific innate antibodies could do.

While suppressing the innate antibodies, the antigen-specific antibodies, being of low quality and quantity, failed to neutralize the virus and thus allowed it to bind to ACE2 and infect host cells, so that these children developed symptomatic illness.

We do have evidence that suboptimal antibodies can bind to a virus but not neutralize it. They are called 'non-neutralizing antibodies'.

I'd rather see some direct evidence rather than something inferred from incomplete data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on April 05, 2022, 08:49:57 PM
.....
I'm pretty sure children were not susceptible to covid19 disease at the beginning of the pandemic. If they were, we would have seen them in the hospitals with the adults.
Now however they are susceptible and are being admitted to hospital more often. What is the explanation for this, if not that the virus is now more infectious and there is more chance of secondary exposure with innate abs suppressed by suboptimal s-specific abs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on April 05, 2022, 09:30:04 PM
I'm pretty sure children were not susceptible to covid19 disease at the beginning of the pandemic. If they were, we would have seen them in the hospitals with the adults.
Now however they are susceptible and are being admitted to hospital more often. What is the explanation for this, if not that the virus is now more infectious and there is more chance of secondary exposure with innate abs suppressed by suboptimal s-specific abs.

'Experts believe the jump in pediatric hospitalizations is likely the result of a confluence of factors. One of them is Omicron’s more contagious nature, and another may be the variant’s newfound preference for airway passages above the lungs, which can be more easily blocked in small children.'

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-omicron-is-putting-more-kids-in-the-hospital/ (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-omicron-is-putting-more-kids-in-the-hospital/)

' children have relatively small nasal passageways that can easily be blocked, so paediatric upper respiratory infections sometimes warrant extra attention compared with those in adults. Roberta DeBiasi, who heads the division of paediatric infectious diseases at the Children’s National Hospital in Washington DC, says that she and her colleagues have noticed an increase in the number of children with ‘COVID croup’, which is an inflammation of the upper airway that produces a characteristic ‘barking’ cough. That adds credence to the theory that Omicron might infect children differently from adults.' '

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00309-x (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00309-x)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on April 06, 2022, 10:33:19 AM
Remember it's all over. At least that's what the government wants you to think:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/05/i-lowered-my-guard-four-people-on-catching-covid-for-the-first-time

"Living with Covid" is a useless piece of spin if you don't do anything to facilitate living with Covid.

Indeed. Worse than useless.

After two years of trying to deal with it we want say it's all over and carry on in the (generally stupid) way we did before. But it has not been dealt with ... here ... let alone worldwide, where vaccines were not made available for a variety of short sighted reasons.

Deaths will decrease but we are likely to see wave after wave of variants that, though they may not be as severe, will act as a constraint on economic and environmental actions that need to be taken and impede progress generally.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on April 06, 2022, 10:52:06 AM
'Experts believe the jump in pediatric hospitalizations is likely the result of a confluence of factors. One of them is Omicron’s more contagious nature, and another may be the variant’s newfound preference for airway passages above the lungs, which can be more easily blocked in small children.'

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-omicron-is-putting-more-kids-in-the-hospital/ (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-omicron-is-putting-more-kids-in-the-hospital/)

' children have relatively small nasal passageways that can easily be blocked, so paediatric upper respiratory infections sometimes warrant extra attention compared with those in adults. Roberta DeBiasi, who heads the division of paediatric infectious diseases at the Children’s National Hospital in Washington DC, says that she and her colleagues have noticed an increase in the number of children with ‘COVID croup’, which is an inflammation of the upper airway that produces a characteristic ‘barking’ cough. That adds credence to the theory that Omicron might infect children differently from adults.' '

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00309-x (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00309-x)
Thanks for this. Okay, but didn't the Wuhan variant infect the nose and throat of a patient first? So if small nasal passages were the main reason for Omicron why didn't children get upper respiratory infection with the Wuhan strain?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on April 06, 2022, 11:09:19 AM
I am a bit confused by the interpretation of data in the vaccine surveillance report (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1063023/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-12.pdf).
Out of 1,383 deaths within 28 days of a positive test in over 80 year-olds, 102 were unvaccinated. In the table this is said to be twice the rate (deaths per 100,000) by comparison with the data for vaccinated with 3 doses. In January just under 90% of over 80s were double jabbed. I'm not sure what percentage of them have now been boosted.
If 77% of deaths in >80s were triple jabbed, how does that translate into "twice as likely to die with Covid if unvaccinated than if tripple vaccinated"?
Compare also the case rates: you're a lot more likely to be infected if vaccinated, especially boosted.
This would mean that the boosters are causing the virus to be circulated. That means a higher chance of variants arising, right? So technically we should end vaccinations now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on April 06, 2022, 11:11:08 AM
Thanks for this. Okay, but didn't the Wuhan variant infect the nose and throat of a patient first? So if small nasal passages were the main reason for Omicron why didn't children get upper respiratory infection with the Wuhan strain?

As I understand it each of the variants infect the upper respiratory track first then can proceed to lower respiratory tract infections. The difference with Omicron, as we've discussed, is that it's preferred cell entry method means it is more of an upper respiratory tract infection than previous variants. I don't really know about the very original Wuhan strain but remember fairly early in the pandemic an Horizon program discussing how the strain in the UK would start as upper respiratory tract then become a lower respiratory tract infection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on April 06, 2022, 01:39:36 PM
Should it ever be proven that it escaped from a Chinese laboratory, as many people think (I'd normally dismiss that as conspiracy-theoretical gonads, but it won't go away), should China pay compensation to the rest of the world, perhaps in the form of a big donation to the WHO?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on April 06, 2022, 08:55:36 PM
As I understand it each of the variants infect the upper respiratory track first then can proceed to lower respiratory tract infections. The difference with Omicron, as we've discussed, is that it's preferred cell entry method means it is more of an upper respiratory tract infection than previous variants. I don't really know about the very original Wuhan strain but remember fairly early in the pandemic an Horizon program discussing how the strain in the UK would start as upper respiratory tract then become a lower respiratory tract infection.
Agreed. Children were not susceptible to infecion at the beginning, but were to Delta, getting mild to moderate diaease. At no point have they been susceptible to severe disease, except in rare cases.
Labouring on with Geert's theory, is it reasonable to assume that their innate immunity protected them at the beginning, but the increased infectious pressure due to the variants now enables the virus to evade it and cause illness.
I guess to verify the theory about suppression of innate abs by acquired abs we would need to locate asymptomatically infected children and then keep testing them for infection and antibodies, for several months.
I wouldn't have realised about there not being documented evidence for it had you not flagged it up.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 06, 2022, 09:03:41 PM
Should it ever be proven that it escaped from a Chinese laboratory, as many people think (I'd normally dismiss that as conspiracy-theoretical gonads, but it won't go away), should China pay compensation to the rest of the world, perhaps in the form of a big donation to the WHO?

Good luck with that. About as much chance as the war crimes tribunal being proposed for Putin ever holding him to justice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on April 07, 2022, 01:17:30 AM
Agreed. Children were not susceptible to infecion at the beginning, but were to Delta, getting mild to moderate diaease. At no point have they been susceptible to severe disease, except in rare cases.
Labouring on with Geert's theory, is it reasonable to assume that their innate immunity protected them at the beginning, but the increased infectious pressure due to the variants now enables the virus to evade it and cause illness.
I guess to verify the theory about suppression of innate abs by acquired abs we would need to locate asymptomatically infected children and then keep testing them for infection and antibodies, for several months.
I wouldn't have realised about there not being documented evidence for it had you not flagged it up.

Not sure we can assume that in the absence of any actual evidence that the innate immune system in children was able to deal with infections from the earlier variants. We don't actually know that children weren't susceptible to infection at the beginning though do we as most wouldn't have been tested. Symptoms with Omicron are different in children it seems but we know it is more of an upper respiratory tract infection than the earlier variants so that could be why on its own. No need to try to get things to fit into his theory without there being evidence for it.

Yes, there would need to be a proper study about the effect of acquired antibodies on the innate immune system. I have tried to look into how the natural (innate) antibodies actually operate and not really found anything. We know acquired antibodies bind to the spike proteins but do the natural ones do the same do you know?

My impression is that you have too much faith in the innate immune system, based on what GVB has said but without the actual evidence to back it up. GVB may have that evidence, and he may be right, but I haven't seen it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 07, 2022, 08:29:05 AM
I am repeating myself frequently I know, but it ain't over:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/06/covid-linked-33-fold-increase-risk-pulmonary-embolism-dvt
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on April 07, 2022, 05:57:29 PM
And more learning to live with it:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-61023908

It all goes so well when you can just ignore a problem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on April 07, 2022, 07:40:27 PM
I am repeating myself frequently I know, but it ain't over:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/06/covid-linked-33-fold-increase-risk-pulmonary-embolism-dvt

It certainly isn't, I agree.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on April 07, 2022, 07:53:50 PM
I am a bit confused by the interpretation of data in the vaccine surveillance report (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1063023/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-12.pdf).
Out of 1,383 deaths within 28 days of a positive test in over 80 year-olds, 102 were unvaccinated. In the table this is said to be twice the rate (deaths per 100,000) by comparison with the data for vaccinated with 3 doses. In January just under 90% of over 80s were double jabbed. I'm not sure what percentage of them have now been boosted.
If 77% of deaths in >80s were triple jabbed, how does that translate into "twice as likely to die with Covid if unvaccinated than if tripple vaccinated"?
Compare also the case rates: you're a lot more likely to be infected if vaccinated, especially boosted.
This would mean that the boosters are causing the virus to be circulated. That means a higher chance of variants arising, right? So technically we should end vaccinations now.

the footnote to the table says

'In the context of very high vaccine coverage in the population, even with a highly effective vaccine, it is expected that a large proportion of cases, hospitalisations and
deaths would occur in vaccinated individuals, simply because a larger proportion of the population are vaccinated than unvaccinated and no vaccine is 100% effective.
This is especially true because vaccination has been prioritised in individuals who are more susceptible or more at risk of severe disease. Individuals in risk groups may
also be more at risk of hospitalisation or death due to non-COVID-19 causes, and thus may be hospitalised or die with COVID-19 rather than because of COVID-19.'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on April 07, 2022, 09:33:42 PM
the footnote to the table says

'In the context of very high vaccine coverage in the population, even with a highly effective vaccine, it is expected that a large proportion of cases, hospitalisations and
deaths would occur in vaccinated individuals, simply because a larger proportion of the population are vaccinated than unvaccinated and no vaccine is 100% effective.
This is especially true because vaccination has been prioritised in individuals who are more susceptible or more at risk of severe disease. Individuals in risk groups may
also be more at risk of hospitalisation or death due to non-COVID-19 causes, and thus may be hospitalised or die with COVID-19 rather than because of COVID-19.'
That doesn't tell us how they arrive at a specific rate of 85 and 42 deaths per 100,000 ie twice as many unvaxed as triple vaxed (over 80 years old). Factoring in that 10% are unvaxed, it should be roughly equal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on April 07, 2022, 10:15:42 PM
Not sure we can assume that in the absence of any actual evidence that the innate immune system in children was able to deal with infections from the earlier variants. We don't actually know that children weren't susceptible to infection at the beginning though do we as most wouldn't have been tested. Symptoms with Omicron are different in children it seems but we know it is more of an upper respiratory tract infection than the earlier variants so that could be why on its own. No need to try to get things to fit into his theory without there being evidence for it.

Yes, there would need to be a proper study about the effect of acquired antibodies on the innate immune system. I have tried to look into how the natural (innate) antibodies actually operate and not really found anything. We know acquired antibodies bind to the spike proteins but do the natural ones do the same do you know?

My impression is that you have too much faith in the innate immune system, based on what GVB has said but without the actual evidence to back it up. GVB may have that evidence, and he may be right, but I haven't seen it.
The literature I read today agreed that children have  not been as severely affected as adults, ie they have milder symptoms.
One article spoke of a faster interferon response to infection in children.
Why didn't children get severe lung disease when the early variants affected the lungs?
Shall I shelve that argument as evidence for adaptive antibodies outcompeting innate antibodies, then?
If the infection rate in vaccinees is indeed much higher, that could also be because of 'original antigenic sin', which seems likely to involve the innate as well as adaptive immune system?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on April 08, 2022, 12:26:07 AM
The literature I read today agreed that children have  not been as severely affected as adults, ie they have milder symptoms.
One article spoke of a faster interferon response to infection in children.
Why didn't children get severe lung disease when the early variants affected the lungs?
Shall I shelve that argument as evidence for adaptive antibodies outcompeting innate antibodies, then?
If the infection rate in vaccinees is indeed much higher, that could also be because of 'original antigenic sin', which seems likely to involve the innate as well as adaptive immune system?

Children's innate immune system is certainly different than that of adults, and many of the symptoms experienced with infection by SARS-CoV-2 are as a result of the innate immune response. For example, it seems 'they do not develop the very aggressive immune response known as a cytokine storm that adults form when they get the virus. It is that intense reaction to the virus that helps perpetuate damage in the lungs and other organ systems, often irreversibly harming adult patients.'  There is also the idea that children are exposed to so many viruses that they carry many antibodies which can confirm some cross immunity, also that they may get some anti-bodies from their mothers. https://www.cedars-sinai.org/newsroom/covid19-why-are-children-less-affected/ (https://www.cedars-sinai.org/newsroom/covid19-why-are-children-less-affected/) Further studies into this are needed and we don't know for sure but they could explain what is observed.

The 'argument' for adaptive antibodies outcompeting innate antibodies shouldn't be shelved but there does need to be supporting evidence for that and I haven't seen any presented - only an inference from incomplete observations. As I said, GVB may be right but he may not - more studies are needed and we don't know. The idea shouldn't be presented as a fact and used as a basis for the arguments when it is just one possible mechanism and one for which there doesn't seem to be much evidence unless that evidence is there but not being seen or presented - actual direct evidence rather than inferred.

People who are much better at interpreting data than I am don't draw the conclusion that the infection rate is much higher in those who have been vaccinated - people such as Paul Mainwood and  John Roberts on twitter (worth a look if you can). No official statements have concluded this. No one is reporting this that I have seen. Some people are claiming this but their claims have ben addressed by people such as those I mentioned as being due to a misunderstanding of the data. I don't feel able to comment directly but see if you can find stuff by them which may be of interest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on April 08, 2022, 05:00:59 AM
"In this study, we developed a multiplexed glycan microarray assay and applied it to evaluate how different isotypes of anti-glycan antibodies (IgA, IgG, and IgM) compete for printed glycan antigens. While IgG and IgA antibodies typically outcompete IgM for peptide or protein antigens, we found that IgM outcompete IgG and IgA for many glycan antigens."
Competition between serum IgG, IgM, and IgA anti-glycan antibodies (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25807519/#:~:text=While%20IgG%20and%20IgA%20antibodies,IgA%20for%20many%20glycan%20antigens.)
Might have to look up glycan versus protein antigens.
Note, most innate antibodies are IgM.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on April 08, 2022, 05:08:59 AM
Quote
I have tried to look into how the natural (innate) antibodies actually operate and not really found anything. We know acquired antibodies bind to the spike proteins but do the natural ones do the same do you know?
From Wikipedia: "IgM in normal serum is often found to bind to specific antigens, even in the absence of prior immunization.[49] For this reason IgM has sometimes been called a "natural antibody"."
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on April 08, 2022, 07:14:05 AM
"In this study, we developed a multiplexed glycan microarray assay and applied it to evaluate how different isotypes of anti-glycan antibodies (IgA, IgG, and IgM) compete for printed glycan antigens. While IgG and IgA antibodies typically outcompete IgM for peptide or protein antigens, we found that IgM outcompete IgG and IgA for many glycan antigens."
Competition between serum IgG, IgM, and IgA anti-glycan antibodies (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25807519/#:~:text=While%20IgG%20and%20IgA%20antibodies,IgA%20for%20many%20glycan%20antigens.)
Might have to look up glycan versus protein antigens.
Note, most innate antibodies are IgM.

Thanks.

Lots to read here. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2018.02754/full (https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2018.02754/full)

It's getting well beyond my knowledge and am very aware that reading papers doesn't make me an expert so will be careful not to argue from a position of knowledge and understanding which I don't have.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on April 08, 2022, 01:52:17 PM
Thanks.

Lots to read here. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2018.02754/full (https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2018.02754/full)

It's getting well beyond my knowledge and am very aware that reading papers doesn't make me an expert so will be careful not to argue from a position of knowledge and understanding which I don't have.
Me too - gvb's latest thing is a paper predicting increased infectivity and virulence, through 'O-glycosylatuon', which makes a bit more sense having read about glycans and how they coat the virus enabling it to evade antibodies.
Your link is about autoreactivity and self-tolerence, which gvb has said is the big worry for vaccinologiats. Because intervening with the innate immune system can cause it to start to recognise self as foreign - something like that.
What I'm interested in is, if it's true that anyone who is in good health has good innate immunity (a gvb claim) then can we reduce the viral load to a point where the innate system can deal with it without us getting severe or even moderate disease? This is what I said at the begining of the pandemic. Infection prevention measures on top of what was recommended, eg mouthwash, stress reduction, exercise, diet. As gvb says, health can't be commercialised.
Will keep an eye out for more on outcompeting of innate. But yeah, some of the literature is too complex for me as well!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on May 28, 2022, 02:00:50 PM


Just a quick question guys.

Have many of you had your booster shots against covid? I am due for one and have a wedding coming up next month.

Some people are warning against the booster due to blood clots. Even some doctors are not recommending  because the necessity for a booster shot and its effectiveness against various covid variants has not been established.

Any views?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on May 28, 2022, 03:14:23 PM
 
I had a booster last December and am getting another next week .. which will be my 4th covid vaccination jab.

Clotting issues with any of the vaccines used in the UK are extremely rare, less than 1 in 100,000 cases for over 40s - and that is on the first dose, likelihood negligible on boosters.


 

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on May 28, 2022, 09:25:25 PM

Just a quick question guys.

Have many of you had your booster shots against covid? I am due for one and have a wedding coming up next month.

Some people are warning against the booster due to blood clots. Even some doctors are not recommending  because the necessity for a booster shot and its effectiveness against various covid variants has not been established.

Any views?

What vaccine would or might it be? In UK we have used mRNA vaccines and the studies showed they gave a good boost.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on May 29, 2022, 05:32:00 AM

We have the Astrazeneca vaccine.  It seems to have done well in the Indian population as far as the first two doses are concerned. 

Just wondering about the need for the booster.  I have a wedding coming and was concerned. Its been a year since my second dose.

I think I'll go for it.

Thanks a lot Udayana and Maeght. 




Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Enki on May 29, 2022, 11:06:07 AM
My wife and I have had both boosters with no ill effects whatever(Pfizer and Moderna). Also, because we run dances for older people, most of those have had boosters too, and they are all ok. Actually, having the booster(with the associated covid pass, enabled us to go abroad (at last) for a superb birding(birdwatching) holiday.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on May 29, 2022, 01:04:21 PM

Thanks a lot Enki for that boost... ! :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dicky Underpants on May 29, 2022, 04:23:24 PM

Just a quick question guys.

Have many of you had your booster shots against covid? I am due for one and have a wedding coming up next month.

Some people are warning against the booster due to blood clots. Even some doctors are not recommending  because the necessity for a booster shot and its effectiveness against various covid variants has not been established.

Any views?
Had two AstraZeneca last year, and then the Pfizer as a booster last November. Had no problems with any of them, and no respiratory troubles apart from a few very mild cold symptoms since. Certainly nothing that could be identified as Covid 19.
A friend who has a weak chest had the same number of vaccinations as me, and did get quite a nasty infection of Covid quite recently, but strangely the chesty symptoms were the first to go. He had lingering ear trouble, sinus trouble and headaches for some time afterwards, though.
It seems that getting the booster gives a degree of extra security, and the risks are extremely rare.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on May 29, 2022, 07:38:49 PM
I had my third jab (Pfizer) at the end of December. Got covid three weeks ago but thanks to the vaccine it was very mild. Apart from the first day when my legs ached I hardly had any symptoms at all. Definitely worth getting a booster. I had no problems with it. I suppose this counts as my fourth jab now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Sriram on May 30, 2022, 06:03:49 AM


Thanks Dicky and ad_orientem! That is helpful. I am taking my booster tomorrow.

Thanks guys!  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on May 30, 2022, 05:22:20 PM
I've managed with toothpaste (Colgate "cavity protection with calcium" - frequent use) a car heater and about 20 hankies. No shots, jabs, pricks, aching arms, and no more than a runny nose and bit of a cough at any time. Three of my friends got boosted recently and were off sick (very) following it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dicky Underpants on May 30, 2022, 05:54:50 PM
I've managed with toothpaste (Colgate "cavity protection with calcium" - frequent use) a car heater and about 20 hankies. No shots, jabs, pricks, aching arms, and no more than a runny nose and bit of a cough at any time. Three of my friends got boosted recently and were off sick (very) following it.
And that is simply anecdotal, compared with the thousands who have died because they didn't get vaccinated. Most likely your friends had been well infected with Covid before they had their jabs, there being so much Covid 19 about.
I once got horrible respiratory symptoms directly after a flu jab. Was this the jab? - I think not, since I've had numerous flu jabs before and since with no problems. The most likely explanation - as I suggest above - was that I was well infected before I had the jab.
Can't think why you're so resistant to jabs. Your attitude would have the world awash with smallpox and polio.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on May 30, 2022, 07:40:07 PM
Dicky,
Smallpox and polio were a differen kettle of fish.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on May 30, 2022, 07:41:49 PM
I forgot to mention a Wisdom 'smokers' toothbrush. I don't smoke, but it cleans like hygienist equipment. I am sure it reduces viral load.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on May 31, 2022, 08:55:50 AM
I forgot to mention a Wisdom 'smokers' toothbrush. I don't smoke, but it cleans like hygienist equipment. I am sure it reduces viral load.

From what I have seen there is evidence that toothpaste can reduce the salivary viral load in people who are infected - so probably giving a reduction in transmission - but none regarding them helping prevent catching Covid-19.

https://www.colgate.com/en-us/oral-health/threats-to-dental-health/new-research-for-toothpaste-and-mouthwash-effects-on-covid-19-virus (https://www.colgate.com/en-us/oral-health/threats-to-dental-health/new-research-for-toothpaste-and-mouthwash-effects-on-covid-19-virus)

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0020653922000697 (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0020653922000697)

Do you know of any evidence regarding it being protective?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on May 31, 2022, 01:25:05 PM
From what I have seen there is evidence that toothpaste can reduce the salivary viral load in people who are infected - so probably giving a reduction in transmission - but none regarding them helping prevent catching Covid-19.

https://www.colgate.com/en-us/oral-health/threats-to-dental-health/new-research-for-toothpaste-and-mouthwash-effects-on-covid-19-virus (https://www.colgate.com/en-us/oral-health/threats-to-dental-health/new-research-for-toothpaste-and-mouthwash-effects-on-covid-19-virus)

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0020653922000697 (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0020653922000697)

Do you know of any evidence regarding it being protective?
References 8-11 here (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3392035/) suggest that:
"in elderly persons who reside in nursing homes, evidence suggests tooth brushing decreases the incidence of pneumonia and decreases mortality rates.8 Numerous studies of elderly persons who routinely received professional oral care have demonstrated improved outcomes: fewer febrile days and decreased rates of influenza or pneumonia.9–11"
My thinking is that using microbe-neutralizing toothpaste and a firm toothbrush (with a medium or small head) to remove plaque from the teeth, would free up salivary IgA as there are less microbes for it to combat in the mouth. That IgA can then act on any virus that enters the throat from the nose.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on May 31, 2022, 01:39:16 PM
References 8-11 here (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3392035/) suggest that:
"in elderly persons who reside in nursing homes, evidence suggests tooth brushing decreases the incidence of pneumonia and decreases mortality rates.8 Numerous studies of elderly persons who routinely received professional oral care have demonstrated improved outcomes: fewer febrile days and decreased rates of influenza or pneumonia.9–11"
My thinking is that using microbe-neutralizing toothpaste and a firm toothbrush (with a medium or small head) to remove plaque from the teeth, would free up salivary IgA as there are less microbes for it to combat in the mouth. That IgA can then act on any virus that enters the throat from the nose.

That may be your thinking but any evidence for it? I understand your point - if all or much of the salivary IgA was used to defend against bacteria in the mouth due to poor dental hygiene then this might mean a lower level of protection against Sars-Cov-2 but is there any actual evidence of that? Any idea of whether this is a real factor?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dicky Underpants on May 31, 2022, 02:00:25 PM
References 8-11 here (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3392035/) suggest that:
"in elderly persons who reside in nursing homes, evidence suggests tooth brushing decreases the incidence of pneumonia and decreases mortality rates.8 Numerous studies of elderly persons who routinely received professional oral care have demonstrated improved outcomes: fewer febrile days and decreased rates of influenza or pneumonia.9–11"
My thinking is that using microbe-neutralizing toothpaste and a firm toothbrush (with a medium or small head) to remove plaque from the teeth, would free up salivary IgA as there are less microbes for it to combat in the mouth. That IgA can then act on any virus that enters the throat from the nose.
Possibly less chance of respiratory infections in the edentulous, then? (Provided they put their dentures in Steradent overnight.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on May 31, 2022, 08:58:38 PM
That may be your thinking but any evidence for it? I understand your point - if all or much of the salivary IgA was used to defend against bacteria in the mouth due to poor dental hygiene then this might mean a lower level of protection against Sars-Cov-2 but is there any actual evidence of that? Any idea of whether this is a real factor?
Alas, no - and I think it's the IgM that responds first, anyway, the so-called natural antibodies that can bind without having had previous encounter with the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on May 31, 2022, 09:05:35 PM
I wondered if this (https://www.voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org/videos-and-interviews/dr-geert-vanden-bossche-ade-evolution-of-the-virus-expected-excess-deaths) might interest anyone. I don't know how much of it is true but it's an explanation for the apparent increased susceptibility of vaccinated people to infection with Omicron.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on June 01, 2022, 07:38:15 AM
I wondered if this (https://www.voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org/videos-and-interviews/dr-geert-vanden-bossche-ade-evolution-of-the-virus-expected-excess-deaths) might interest anyone. I don't know how much of it is true but it's an explanation for the apparent increased susceptibility of vaccinated people to infection with Omicron.

What apparent increased susceptibility?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on June 01, 2022, 01:26:19 PM
What apparent increased susceptibility?
When (until a few months ago) the vaccine surveillance report used to give data for infections in unvaccinated and vaccinated people, the infection rates were consistently higher in the latter group. This coincided with Omicron taking over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on June 01, 2022, 01:36:49 PM
See for example data for over 18 agegrouos, page 45 of Covid 19 vaccine surveillance report week 8, 2022 (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1057599/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week-8.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwi84N2XoIz4AhXEg1wKHQGYC-EQFnoECAYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1kIowTDiuXmz_gYIbWU4TQ).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on June 01, 2022, 02:11:34 PM
See for example data for over 18 agegrouos, page 45 of Covid 19 vaccine surveillance report week 8, 2022 (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1057599/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week-8.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwi84N2XoIz4AhXEg1wKHQGYC-EQFnoECAYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1kIowTDiuXmz_gYIbWU4TQ).

Oh, I see ... another brilliant analysis ... all just by avoiding reading the footnotes!

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 01, 2022, 02:27:01 PM
When (until a few months ago) the vaccine surveillance report used to give data for infections in unvaccinated and vaccinated people, the infection rates were consistently higher in the latter group. This coincided with Omicron taking over.

More helpful and certainly more important to look at the role vaccination plays in preventing death:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dicky Underpants on June 01, 2022, 05:37:58 PM
Dicky,
Smallpox and polio were a differen kettle of fish.

In that they could both kill or cause life-long disablement, they are very much the same kettle of fish. Insofar as the research done was largely hit and miss and based on anecdote and some small amount of empirical experience with smallpox, the medics of the time were way behind the vast researches of modern medicine into the various types of corona virus. It was this research the world-wide medical experts drew as a basis of their development of Covid19 vaccines (whereas with smallpox before Jenner, they even tried inoculation with live smallpox on occasion). There is a difference in that vaccination against smallpox and polio conferred longer immunity than vaccines against Covid19, but the basic principle is the same.
The fact that occasional side-effects have been noted with Covid19 vaccines does little to counter the arguments that such vaccines largely prevent serious illness, lifelong disablement or death (in potentially millions of people) from the virus and its variants.
I don't quite understand what you're afraid of, unless you've been infected with ludicrous conspiracy theories. When one realises that nations throughout the world who have long been on not the best, or even hostile, relations, have all concurred in the importance of vaccination, the idea of some horrible conspiracy going on (by whom and against whom?) becomes utterly ridiculous.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on June 01, 2022, 07:44:11 PM
Oh, I see ... another brilliant analysis ... all just by avoiding reading the footnotes!
Could you explan how the data for case rates per 100,000 unvaccinated can consistently show that vaccination makes you twice as likely (roughly) to test positive if you're over 18?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on June 01, 2022, 08:05:41 PM
Could you explan how the data for case rates per 100,000 unvaccinated can consistently show that vaccination makes you twice as likely (roughly) to test positive if you're over 18?

On page 45 it says 'Comparing case rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated populations should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 infection' then goes on to explain why.

https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-omicronvariant-breakthroughpro/fact-check-article-examining-the-probability-of-omicron-variant-breakthrough-cases-is-misinterpreted-online-idUSL1N2T81PO (https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-omicronvariant-breakthroughpro/fact-check-article-examining-the-probability-of-omicron-variant-breakthrough-cases-is-misinterpreted-online-idUSL1N2T81PO)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dicky Underpants on June 01, 2022, 08:48:42 PM
Could you explan how the data for case rates per 100,000 unvaccinated can consistently show that vaccination makes you twice as likely (roughly) to test positive if you're over 18?
Having looked back through the thread (belatedly), I see that your concerns have regularly been answered by people far better informed than myself. I've concluded that the answer to your objections does not lie in the areas of virology or immunology - it's a matter of psychology.
Are you on a campaign to warn the world against a medically unsound practice that could cause serious harm to thousands, perhaps millions? If so, I assume that you're a devotee of Mr. (sic) Andrew Wakefield and other charlatans.
The truth is Covid19 has caused thousands of deaths and disablement, especially in the early days of the epidemic before vaccines were available, and now there are fewer such.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on June 01, 2022, 09:53:33 PM
Could you explan how the data for case rates per 100,000 unvaccinated can consistently show that vaccination makes you twice as likely (roughly) to test positive if you're over 18?

As is carefully explained in the notes, the raw data figures provided by the ONS, based on unrepresentative samples, cannot be used to compare infection rates between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups.

Quote
The case rates in the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations are unadjusted crude rates that do not take into account underlying statistical biases in the data and there are likely to be systematic differences between these 2 population groups. For example:
• testing behaviour is likely to be different between people with different vaccination status, resulting in differences in the chances of being identified as a case
• many of those who were at the head of the queue for vaccination are those at higher risk from COVID-19 due to their age, their occupation, their family circumstances or because of underlying health issues
• people who are fully vaccinated and people who are unvaccinated may behave differently, particularly with regard to social interactions and therefore may have differing levels of exposure to COVID-19
• people who have never been vaccinated are more likely to have caught COVID-19 in the weeks or months before the period of the cases covered in the report. This gives them some natural immunity to the virus which may have contributed to a lower case rate in the past few weeks

To properly study the effect of vaccination requires work to ensure the biases and differences in the populations being compared do not skew the results. The various studies for the different cases are listed in pages 13 to 15. If you check out those you can see how the data are processed - but they will not be based on the raw data from the ONS database. In any case, the report itself provides a summary of the vaccine effectiveness results in Table 2.

The ONS report is reporting generally on vaccination coverage, impact, and so on .. not providing raw data for analysis.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on June 02, 2022, 12:07:36 PM
Thanks chaps,

Here is a long post which I will submit because otherwise it will seem like a waste of time writing it! I knew post 5061 would open a can of worms, and I wasn't expecting to learn what I have since learned regarding the data in the vaccine surveillance reports.

I was wanting to have a discussion about this quite a while back but I left it. The reason I bring it up now is because the message in the talk I linked to in 5061 is, in summary:

Covid vaccines induce neutralizing antibodies, which are effective against the original strain.
These antibodies bind much less well to the highly mutated Omicron spike.
The vaccines also induce non-neutralizing antibodies against 'conserved' (less mutated) parts of the spike.
When the neutralizing abs are doing their job, the non-neutralizing abs cannot bind to the spike. But when the neutralizing abs stop doing their job, as with Omicron, the non-neutralizing abs can bind much more readily.
At a molecular level, when the non-neutralizing abs bind to the spike, this has the effect of forcing the spike into the 'open conformation' which enables it to bind to ACE2. Thus they enhance infection.

Thus (according to the theory) although boosters increase a person's levels of neutralizing abs, they cannot bind well to Omicron and so the non-neutralizing abs, now binding more to the spike, enhance infection.

So the thrust of the message is that vaccination against omicron is leading to antibody-dependant enhancement of infection (not disease).

The prediction made based on the continued high circulation of the virus is that high immune pressure is now being placed on the virulence of the virus. To explain: the non-neutralizing antibodies, while enhancing infection, also prevent severe systemic disease, for example in the lung, where they suppress trans-infection of alveolar cells.
The virus needs to increase the severity of disease in order to transmit itself better in this environment of high immune pressure. So mutation that can enable a greater level of infection in the lower respiratory tract will over time be selected for, as long as the infection rate remains high.
This would lead to a severe wave of mortality.

It seems to me that this theory depends on interpreting the available data to mean that infection rates are higher in vaccinated people.

So regarding that data:
The vaccine surveillance reports say that "in order to estimate vaccine effectiveness against infection, repeat asymptomatic testing of a defined cohort of individuals is required. Studies have now reported on vaccine effectiveness against infection in healthcare workers, care home residents and the general population".

I hadn't taken this on board until you pointed it out. However, the data for cases in the general UK population still look high enough in the vaccinated groups (over 18) to be significant despite confounding factors. But let's assume that negative vaccine efficacy for people with three doses is generally not happening.

Data is not yet available for vaccine effectiveness against Omicron after 6 months. One thing to note (see COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report Week 16 2022, table 3 (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1070356/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-16.pdf)) is that after 3 months, it drops to 30% for people who've had only 2 vaccine doses. Data for 4-6 months is insufficient except for Astra Zenica, which has a range of 0-35%. Data for 6+ months is insufficient.

So negative efficacy may happen for people who have not been boosted, after 6 months from their second jab. But we don't know, because most people had the booster before that time.

So for people who weren't vaccinated who survived the pre-omicron waves, they may now have at least as good protection against Omicron as those with two doses.

The question remains as to whether continually boosting the population with antibodies that were well matched for the original strain is driving the dominant circulation of immune escape variants, and whether this will ultimately lead to strains that have increased virulence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on June 02, 2022, 06:33:02 PM
Prefacing everything with the acknowledgement that I am not an expert ........

From what I have read, yes, what you describe is possible but it is/has been watched out for an not seen yet according to the experts. I have also read that the consequences of ADE are acute & dramatically and kills quickly and this has not been seen (this was on a website which required registration to read in full and I only got a greyed out 'glimpse' but that is what was clearly said.

This is interesting https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/all.15264 (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/all.15264)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dicky Underpants on June 03, 2022, 03:57:11 PM
Spud

Please note what the following article says about the immunological function of the T cells and the Fc receptors in particular. The article doesn't seem to deny the possible truth of the phenomenon to which you're drawing attention, but points out that this is far from the whole story.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20220103/Omicron-spike-specific-binding-antibodies-attenuate-disease-despite-increasing-transmission.aspx&ved=2ahUKEwiC7dbrwJH4AhV-QEEAHe_JDboQFnoECB0QAQ&usg=AOvVaw2kkmHfbMxV9zOfdCTyQkoR
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dicky Underpants on June 03, 2022, 04:12:30 PM
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/antibody-dependent-enhancement-in-vaccines&ved=2ahUKEwjzqMaZyJH4AhULSEEAHdjdBNIQFnoECAUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0CkVcppYJdHeZPTZkJrA29
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on June 03, 2022, 07:47:30 PM
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/antibody-dependent-enhancement-in-vaccines&ved=2ahUKEwjzqMaZyJH4AhULSEEAHdjdBNIQFnoECAUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0CkVcppYJdHeZPTZkJrA29

I saw that one but didn't post it as it is pre Omicron isn't it, and it seems Spud is most concerned about Omicron causing ADE - I think?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dicky Underpants on June 03, 2022, 09:38:20 PM
I saw that one but didn't post it as it is pre Omicron isn't it, and it seems Spud is most concerned about Omicron causing ADE - I think?
Yup, I only noticed the date afterwards. However, I think my previous link, though not right up to date, deals with the bigger picture in fairly convincing detail.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on June 04, 2022, 11:47:33 AM
Spud

Please note what the following article says about the immunological function of the T cells and the Fc receptors in particular. The article doesn't seem to deny the possible truth of the phenomenon to which you're drawing attention, but points out that this is far from the whole story.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20220103/Omicron-spike-specific-binding-antibodies-attenuate-disease-despite-increasing-transmission.aspx&ved=2ahUKEwiC7dbrwJH4AhV-QEEAHe_JDboQFnoECB0QAQ&usg=AOvVaw2kkmHfbMxV9zOfdCTyQkoR
Thanks for that, very interesting, although I thought this bit in bold doesn't make sense:
"Both vaccine-induced neutralizing antibodies and monoclonal therapies have gradually lost neutralization potency against developing variants of concern (VOCs). This is largely because many of the strong neutralizing antibodies attach to the RBD in an effort to disrupt or prevent interactions with ACE2. This loss of neutralization, combined with increased ACE2-binding, is responsible for the global increase in transmission events."
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on June 04, 2022, 11:50:07 AM
...
So the thrust of the message is that vaccination against omicron is leading to antibody-dependant enhancement of infection (not disease).

ADEs have been recognised as a possibility from the start of vaccine development, based on experience with SARS, MERS and other viruses. So the vaccines in use have been designed to minimise the risks  and for the known variants there is no indication that ADE is increasing spread or severity. Obviously as each new variant emerges the vaccines in use are checked against them and tested to make sure differences do not cause additional problems and that they are still effective enough to keep using.

Quote
The prediction made based on the continued high circulation of the virus is that high immune pressure is now being placed on the virulence of the virus. To explain: the non-neutralizing antibodies, while enhancing infection, also prevent severe systemic disease, for example in the lung, where they suppress trans-infection of alveolar cells.
The virus needs to increase the severity of disease in order to transmit itself better in this environment of high immune pressure. So mutation that can enable a greater level of infection in the lower respiratory tract will over time be selected for, as long as the infection rate remains high.
This would lead to a severe wave of mortality.

This is a repetition of your continued misunderstanding or misstatement of/on the emergence and spread of new variants. Although it is feasible that variants with higher infectivity and severity will emerge, study of the variants that have emerged and their spread, severity and interaction with the existing vaccines must inform us prior to blatant scaremongering.
 
Quote
It seems to me that this theory depends on interpreting the available data to mean that infection rates are higher in vaccinated people.
...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on June 04, 2022, 11:54:33 AM
Prefacing everything with the acknowledgement that I am not an expert ........

Same for all of us I think ... unless actually working on the vaccines or epidemiology.

Quote
From what I have read, yes, what you describe is possible but it is/has been watched out for an not seen yet according to the experts. I have also read that the consequences of ADE are acute & dramatically and kills quickly and this has not been seen (this was on a website which required registration to read in full and I only got a greyed out 'glimpse' but that is what was clearly said.

This is interesting https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/all.15264 (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/all.15264)

I would add "potentially" ...

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on June 04, 2022, 11:55:09 AM
I saw that one but didn't post it as it is pre Omicron isn't it, and it seems Spud is most concerned about Omicron causing ADE - I think?
And it's talking about enhancement of disease, whereas with Omicron we seem to be seeing enhancement of infection coupled with attenuated disease.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on June 04, 2022, 12:01:49 PM
ADEs have been recognised as a possibility from the start of vaccine development, based on experience with SARS, MERS and other viruses. So the vaccines in use have been designed to minimise the risks  and for the known variants there is no indication that ADE is increasing spread or severity. Obviously as each new variant emerges the vaccines in use are checked against them and tested to make sure differences do not cause additional problems and that they are still effective enough to keep using.

This is a repetition of your continued misunderstanding or misstatement of/on the emergence and spread of new variants. Although it is feasible that variants with higher infectivity and severity will emerge, study of the variants that have emerged and their spread, severity and interaction with the existing vaccines must inform us prior to blatant scaremongering.
I would emphasize that ADE normally refers to disease. but in this case it is infection that appears to be enhanced coupled with attenuated disease. Note also that this could also be a feature of immunity induced by natural infection. The question is do we want to add to the latter through mass vaccination? If we do we continue to add to the evolutionary pressure on the virus, in particular on its virulence (according to Geert).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on June 04, 2022, 12:10:32 PM
This study from May 2021 (https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/674497) details the mechanics of enhancement of infection by certain infection-induced antibodies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on June 06, 2022, 01:47:08 PM
In that they could both kill or cause life-long disablement, they are very much the same kettle of fish. Insofar as the research done was largely hit and miss and based on anecdote and some small amount of empirical experience with smallpox, the medics of the time were way behind the vast researches of modern medicine into the various types of corona virus. It was this research the world-wide medical experts drew as a basis of their development of Covid19 vaccines (whereas with smallpox before Jenner, they even tried inoculation with live smallpox on occasion). There is a difference in that vaccination against smallpox and polio conferred longer immunity than vaccines against Covid19, but the basic principle is the same.
The fact that occasional side-effects have been noted with Covid19 vaccines does little to counter the arguments that such vaccines largely prevent serious illness, lifelong disablement or death (in potentially millions of people) from the virus and its variants.
I don't quite understand what you're afraid of, unless you've been infected with ludicrous conspiracy theories. When one realises that nations throughout the world who have long been on not the best, or even hostile, relations, have all concurred in the importance of vaccination, the idea of some horrible conspiracy going on (by whom and against whom?) becomes utterly ridiculous.
A couple of points. Iirc, vaccination against polio and smallpox differed from vaccination during this pandemic in that those two viruses mutate much more slowly, so immune escape didn't happen.
All-cause mortality for Pfizer was higher in vaccinated. I have seen studies that show it to be higher during the vaccination program.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on June 21, 2022, 09:58:48 AM
...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on June 21, 2022, 10:29:40 AM
All-cause mortality for Pfizer was higher in vaccinated. I have seen studies that show it to be higher during the vaccination program.
Err - evidence please.

But even if that is the case then like there is a simple explanation - being that vaccination programmes started with the oldest and most vulnerable - in other words those most likely to die, either from covid or from other causes.

I'm sure there is a massively greater death rates amongst pensioner bus pass holders compared to those that aren't eligible for a bus pass. Doesn't mean that bus passes are dangerous, does it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on June 21, 2022, 11:21:36 PM
PD,
A study was done in New Zealand looking at all-cause mortality during the vaccination program. It wasn't confounded by increased COVID deaths, as there were hardly any cases at that time. All-cause mortality went up during the vaccination period. This was during their winter 2021, so I am not sure if it was higher than other winters. But it was claimed to be on a podcast so I will try and find the study.
I think ther are other datasets that show the same result for other countries.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on June 22, 2022, 12:18:42 AM
Here is the podcast (https://youtu.be/VVxmAIKjYM4) showing at 12 minutes the data in a graph relating deaths to vaccinations.
There were overall 34,000 deaths in NZ in 2021. This was 2,300 more than in 2020. Total deaths with a positive Covid test were 59 by December 31 2021.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on June 22, 2022, 06:40:52 AM
Here is the podcast (https://youtu.be/VVxmAIKjYM4) showing at 12 minutes the data in a graph relating deaths to vaccinations.
There were overall 34,000 deaths in NZ in 2021. This was 2,300 more than in 2020. Total deaths with a positive Covid test were 59 by December 31 2021.

'The number of deaths registered during 2021 was 34,932, up 2,319 (7.1 percent) from the previous year. Deaths are gradually increasing over time, despite increasing life expectancy, because of general population growth and more people in older age groups.'

'Most deaths occur at older ages. Four out of every five deaths in 2021 were to people aged 65 years and older, and just over half (52 percent) were to those 80 years and older. The number of people in the population reaching these older ages is increasing, which will therefore increase the number of deaths occurring'

https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/births-and-deaths-year-ended-december-2021-including-abridged-period-life-table/ (https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/births-and-deaths-year-ended-december-2021-including-abridged-period-life-table/)

'The crude death rate is the number of deaths relative to the entire population, calculated as the number of deaths per 1,000 estimated population. The crude death rate is a simple measure for examining deaths within the population, as it does not account for mortality rates differing by ages, for example higher infant mortality or higher mortality at older ages.'
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on June 22, 2022, 08:54:57 AM
Here is the podcast (https://youtu.be/VVxmAIKjYM4) showing at 12 minutes the data in a graph relating deaths to vaccinations.
There were overall 34,000 deaths in NZ in 2021. This was 2,300 more than in 2020. Total deaths with a positive Covid test were 59 by December 31 2021.
Yes, just looked at the piece about 12 minutes and either your guy is a complete idiot, or is a disingenuous conspiracy theory nut.

Look at the graph and tell me the time period when the peak in deaths occurred - Oh I'll do it for you - it rises from about mid May and then drops back down again by about mid October. Any reason why there might be a rise in deaths in New Zealand[/b] between May and September - here's a clue for you, this is the equivalent of November to March in the UK. Any idea Spud?

So if this is about deaths due to vaccination, then you wouldn't expect the same effect in years prior to covid/vaccination - hmm - look at figure 1 in the link.

https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2458-7-263

Weird eh - there is a spike in deaths every year peaking about July - why, because it is Winter!!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on July 05, 2022, 05:41:02 PM
As ever Stephen Reicher makes some important points:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/05/pretending-covid-over-uk-government-virus-risk-public-health-measures
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on July 07, 2022, 10:38:27 AM
Yes, just looked at the piece about 12 minutes and either your guy is a complete idiot, or is a disingenuous conspiracy theory nut.

Look at the graph and tell me the time period when the peak in deaths occurred - Oh I'll do it for you - it rises from about mid May and then drops back down again by about mid October. Any reason why there might be a rise in deaths in New Zealand[/b] between May and September - here's a clue for you, this is the equivalent of November to March in the UK. Any idea Spud?

So if this is about deaths due to vaccination, then you wouldn't expect the same effect in years prior to covid/vaccination - hmm - look at figure 1 in the link.

https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2458-7-263

Weird eh - there is a spike in deaths every year peaking about July - why, because it is Winter!!!!
Yes - I did mention that in #5087. I agree, it looks like the increased all cause mortality was due to it being winter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on July 09, 2022, 07:08:14 PM
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/05/excess-deaths-rise-not-covid/

Really strange. I've had something quite severe - had to see a GP, who reassured me I hadn't had a brain hemorrhage (had a major headache and couldn't eat for 3 days).
At this time of year I wouldn't expect to come down with Flu (I think that is what it was as I tested negative for covid.)
There has been a lot of Covid around here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on July 10, 2022, 10:11:44 AM
Yes, just looked at the piece about 12 minutes and either your guy is a complete idiot, or is a disingenuous conspiracy theory nut.

Look at the graph and tell me the time period when the peak in deaths occurred - Oh I'll do it for you - it rises from about mid May and then drops back down again by about mid October. Any reason why there might be a rise in deaths in New Zealand[/b] between May and September - here's a clue for you, this is the equivalent of November to March in the UK. Any idea Spud?

So if this is about deaths due to vaccination, then you wouldn't expect the same effect in years prior to covid/vaccination - hmm - look at figure 1 in the link.

https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2458-7-263

Weird eh - there is a spike in deaths every year peaking about July - why, because it is Winter!!!!
I've been sent a link to a study that gives the data on risk/benefit ratio of boosters, in New Zealand:
https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/waieconwp/22_2f11.htm?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
As shown in that 'Peak Prosperity' video, the excess deaths during primary and secondary vaccination don't seem to be much more than expected for the winter period. Excess deaths for the booster period however, seem significantly high, given it was summer time.

Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ProfessorDavey on July 10, 2022, 10:30:56 AM
I've been sent a link to a study that gives the data on risk/benefit ratio of boosters, in New Zealand:
https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/waieconwp/22_2f11.htm?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
As shown in that 'Peak Prosperity' video, the excess deaths during primary and secondary vaccination don't seem to be much more than expected for the winter period. Excess deaths for the booster period however, seem significantly high, given it was summer time.
You also need to factor in the impact of other measures on expected deaths - so NZ had pretty severe lock down measure in place until recently - in the absence of covid that would have markedly reduced mortality anyway as other transmissible (and sometimes fatal) diseases such as seasonal flu are suppressed. So for the first period you describe the baseline expected deaths would be lower than historically in a typical winter as we don't normally lock down etc.

But the other, important point, about the data is the lag between main vaccination and booster dates. We know that vaccine efficacy declines with time, hence the need for boosters. So the point about the summer data is that you need to take it in context of the booster roll-out. This is shown in Fig1B. So you will see that for the time period assess only about half of the people with earlier vaccination had had boosters. So there will be a considerable portion of the population will have declining vaccination efficacy from the initial vaccination programme, but not have had their boosters yet. Add in an understanding that NZ was beginning to significantly open up during the booster period, the prevalence of new, more transmissible variants, plus the legacy issue to delayed diagnosis of serious disease completely unrelated to covid and the data are completely expected.

None of this in any way negates the importance of the booster programme and without doubt had there been no booster programme, with everything else being the same, we'd have seen more excess deaths.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on July 10, 2022, 11:01:42 AM
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/05/excess-deaths-rise-not-covid/

Really strange. I've had something quite severe - had to see a GP, who reassured me I hadn't had a brain hemorrhage (had a major headache and couldn't eat for 3 days).
At this time of year I wouldn't expect to come down with Flu (I think that is what it was as I tested negative for covid.)
There has been a lot of Covid around here.

Sorry to hear you've been unwell.

This is an interesting review of excess deaths.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7f45S6vmQgA&ab_channel=Dr.JohnCampbell (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7f45S6vmQgA&ab_channel=Dr.JohnCampbell)

Can't read the article you linked to due to a paywall.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 10, 2022, 11:12:59 AM
Sorry to hear you've been unwell.

This is an interesting review of excess deaths.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7f45S6vmQgA&ab_channel=Dr.JohnCampbell (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7f45S6vmQgA&ab_channel=Dr.JohnCampbell)

Can't read the article you linked to due to a paywall.
Archived version of article

https://archive.ph/g0yRr
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on July 10, 2022, 11:35:57 AM
Archived version of article

https://archive.ph/g0yRr

Thanks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on July 12, 2022, 08:46:50 AM
Sorry to hear you've been unwell.

This is an interesting review of excess deaths.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7f45S6vmQgA&ab_channel=Dr.JohnCampbell (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7f45S6vmQgA&ab_channel=Dr.JohnCampbell)

Can't read the article you linked to due to a paywall.
I think I got food poisoning from a reduced price chicken sandwich! And then some respiratory virus broke through my innate immune system... So maybe excess deaths could relate to the cost of living and not being able to afford in-date food...
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on July 13, 2022, 11:17:36 AM
I think I got food poisoning from a reduced price chicken sandwich! And then some respiratory virus broke through my innate immune system... So maybe excess deaths could relate to the cost of living and not being able to afford in-date food...

There are clearly a number of reasons contributing to the excess deaths ... can't see that there are short term fixes for them.

In the meantime UK Covid related deaths have passed 200,000:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/13/as-covid-deaths-in-the-uk-surpass-the-grim-milestone-of-200000-what-have-we-learned
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on July 13, 2022, 08:42:16 PM
So there will be a considerable portion of the population will have declining vaccination efficacy from the initial vaccination programme, but not have had their boosters yet.
Maybe I'm wrong, but are the higher excess deaths said to be non-covid deaths?
If so, then the increase would not be related to people not taking the boosters.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on July 13, 2022, 09:18:14 PM
Err - evidence please.

But even if that is the case then like there is a simple explanation - being that vaccination programmes started with the oldest and most vulnerable - in other words those most likely to die, either from covid or from other causes.

I'm sure there is a massively greater death rates amongst pensioner bus pass holders compared to those that aren't eligible for a bus pass. Doesn't mean that bus passes are dangerous, does it.
Interested in your opinion on this:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4125239
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 10, 2022, 09:58:23 PM
I wonder if this will be a permanent feature


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-62490172
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 05, 2023, 12:23:32 PM
Interesting stuff. Social media now seems to have permanently become a split betwern those arhuinh for compulsory mask wearing forever and vaccine conspiracists. The UK Govt and devolved govts apart from occasional measures like compulsory testing but no action of positive for those arriving from China seem to have pretty well given up providing information.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-64173824
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on January 05, 2023, 08:38:37 PM
Interested in your opinion on this:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4125239

Watch this Spud

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drSAsfuMkuw&ab_channel=BacktotheScience (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drSAsfuMkuw&ab_channel=BacktotheScience)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on January 10, 2023, 05:08:16 PM
Watch this Spud

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drSAsfuMkuw&ab_channel=BacktotheScience (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drSAsfuMkuw&ab_channel=BacktotheScience)
Can you summarize it please, looks like a waste of 12 minutes?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on January 10, 2023, 07:10:21 PM
Can you summarize it please, looks like a waste of 12 minutes?

Why do you consider it a waste of 12 minutes?

Anyway, it is about the use of P-hacking and about comparing apples to oranges.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SqueakyVoice on January 10, 2023, 08:54:56 PM
Interested in your opinion on this:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4125239 (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4125239)

Firstly, could you summarise this paper and provide brief descriptions of relative and absolute figures?Or try watching this
Unvaccinated: www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0019g27 via @bbciplayersome is quite interesting (& some just demonstrates that some people are prepared to be closeminded).[/size][/color]
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on January 11, 2023, 08:32:11 AM
Why do you consider it a waste of 12 minutes?

Anyway, it is about the use of P-hacking and about comparing apples to oranges.
She's behaving like a prat. Thanks, I've looked up P-hacking and will check out the video.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on January 11, 2023, 09:17:15 AM

Firstly, could you summarise this paper and provide brief descriptions of relative and absolute figures?
The abstract in the link is a summary, and I think the most relevant bit is "The excess risk of serious adverse events of special interest surpassed the risk reduction for COVID-19 hospitalization relative to the placebo group in both Pfizer and Moderna trials"
Do you want the figures from the paper itself? It's 22 pages long.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SqueakyVoice on January 11, 2023, 05:32:43 PM
...
Do you want the figures from the paper itself? It's 22 pages long.....
It is. That's why I want a summarise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on January 12, 2023, 03:36:08 PM
Why do you consider it a waste of 12 minutes?

Anyway, it is about the use of P-hacking and about comparing apples to oranges.
The limitations of the study are discussed in the paper (now reviewed and published).  I've managed 3 minutes of the Aussie lady, will keep trying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on January 12, 2023, 06:06:19 PM
The limitations of the study are discussed in the paper (now reviewed and published).  I've managed 3 minutes of the Aussie lady, will keep trying.

Making a bit of a meal of it aren't you? Would start to think you didn't want to watch it. How about this instead?

https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/peer-review-fail-vaccine-publishes-antivax-propaganda/ (https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/peer-review-fail-vaccine-publishes-antivax-propaganda/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on February 11, 2023, 06:45:54 PM
Making a bit of a meal of it aren't you? Would start to think you didn't want to watch it. How about this instead?

https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/peer-review-fail-vaccine-publishes-antivax-propaganda/ (https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/peer-review-fail-vaccine-publishes-antivax-propaganda/)
Are you still following John Campbell? This is his most recent talk, on adverse reactions.
https://youtu.be/onNe5VMQAwQ
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on February 11, 2023, 07:21:15 PM
Are you still following John Campbell? This is his most recent talk, on adverse reactions.
https://youtu.be/onNe5VMQAwQ

No, don't watch him anymore.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 02, 2023, 08:36:23 AM
'A plague on both their houses'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-64818969
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on March 02, 2023, 08:44:09 AM
'A plague on both their houses'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-64818969

I am staggered at the sheer ineptitude of Hancock choosing Oakeshott to help write his book in the first place. Then giving her access to all his govt Whatsapp messages takes it to another level. He is certifiably insane.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 02, 2023, 08:56:45 AM
I am staggered at the sheer ineptitude of Hancock choosing Oakeshott to help write his book in the first place. Then giving her access to all his govt Whatsapp messages takes it to another level. He is certifiably insane.
I would be interested to see her contract - if she gets more money based on sales then I suspect  the principle that took precedence here is her bank account.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Udayana on March 02, 2023, 10:40:23 AM
I am staggered at the sheer ineptitude of Hancock choosing Oakeshott to help write his book in the first place. Then giving her access to all his govt Whatsapp messages takes it to another level. He is certifiably insane.

But he was in love!
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SqueakyVoice on March 02, 2023, 12:11:51 PM
This is quite an interesting, and depressing article. https://liveapp.inews.co.uk/2023/02/28/25-years-after-the-mmr-vaccine-autism-fraud-were-still-dealing-with-the-consequences/content.html (https://liveapp.inews.co.uk/2023/02/28/25-years-after-the-mmr-vaccine-autism-fraud-were-still-dealing-with-the-consequences/content.html)
There is a link inside (actually, there are quite a few) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandolini%27s_law (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandolini%27s_law)
So, it looks like we're trying to get rid of Bullshit on a logarithmic scale, ah well...😒
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on March 07, 2023, 04:18:13 PM
Boosters to be offered in the spring for most vulnerable.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-64876657

Interesting that it mentions the Sanofi/GSK vaccine as an option as I didn't know it had been approved here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 19, 2023, 04:00:09 PM
Risks seriously outweigh benefits for boosters. In the over 70s risks equal benefits.
https://youtu.be/JvSHD_n3Lyg
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Stranger on March 19, 2023, 04:43:45 PM
Risks seriously outweigh benefits for boosters. In the over 70s risks equal benefits.
https://youtu.be/JvSHD_n3Lyg

According to a well known source of misinformation on the subject (John Campbell (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Campbell_(YouTuber))). You must be ever scammer's dream.  ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SqueakyVoice on March 24, 2023, 07:02:12 PM
https://liveapp.inews.co.uk/2023/03/23/father-whose-baby-died-after-missing-vitamin-k-jab-urges-parents-not-to-be-taken-in-by-misinformation/content.html (https://liveapp.inews.co.uk/2023/03/23/father-whose-baby-died-after-missing-vitamin-k-jab-urges-parents-not-to-be-taken-in-by-misinformation/content.html)
Quote
Having gone through baby loss, he (Mr Patto) said he finds it “hard to understand” why parents would trust unverified information on social media over advice from their healthcare professional
...

Mr Patto blamed Covid-19 for a re-emergence of the debate around anti-vaccination and medical consent, saying it is “unfortunately spilling over” into real life.
With many condolences to Mr Patto, I agree with his opinion and advice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on June 18, 2023, 11:07:44 AM
How can the police have investigated it and no action taken?

How can someone get an OBE for purely interrnal party, and indeed party, efforts?





https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/17/video-emerges-of-conservative-hq-christmas-party-during-covid >:(
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 17, 2023, 09:44:07 AM
EG.5 - soon Covid variants will look like a password

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-66502573
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 18, 2023, 11:09:29 AM
Anyone on here going to pay £100 for a booster jag


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/17/covid-booster-jabs-approved-for-sale-to-uk-public
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on August 18, 2023, 02:40:07 PM
Am I 'eck-as-like. Mind you, i think I'm entitled to it free at my age, but i don't know whether I'll bother.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on August 18, 2023, 02:43:40 PM
65 and over get it free plus those at higher risk with pre-existing conditions.

Given that immunity wanes over time it would be prudent to get it, but it's your choice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Steve H on August 18, 2023, 02:56:58 PM
Spoze I orter.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on August 25, 2023, 09:04:42 AM
Interesting story but I would like to see more about what the legal argument is as struggling to see how it can succeed.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-66582873
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 30, 2023, 07:58:12 PM
Johnson was useless, and his advisors knew that at the time.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67262984
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 31, 2023, 08:56:03 AM
Johnson was useless, and his advisors knew that at the time.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67262984

And most of the relevant ministers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 31, 2023, 12:19:42 PM
'Covid was the wrong crisis for Boris Johnson, aide tells inquiry'


One wonders what would have been the right one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on October 31, 2023, 03:39:06 PM

One wonders what would have been the right one.

When his wife finds out about his mistress?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on October 31, 2023, 07:37:06 PM
Cummings is an obvious misogynist. His 'defence' that he was rude about men would be laughable were it not for the seriousness of the issue. The attempt to wash his hands of responsibility is typical of his lying.


https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/covid-inquiry-dominic-cummings-helen-mcnamara-misogyny-stilettos/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on October 31, 2023, 08:03:56 PM
His 'explanation' of why in a message he said we shouldn't go into a national lockdown when saying that he argued for it seems like another example of his lying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 01, 2023, 09:56:05 AM
Cummings is an obvious misogynist. His 'defence' that he was rude about men would be laughable were it not for the seriousness of the issue. The attempt to wash his hands of responsibility is typical of his lying.


https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/covid-inquiry-dominic-cummings-helen-mcnamara-misogyny-stilettos/

I don't want to derail the topic (much) but, it seems to me that just insulting a woman doesn't make you a misogynist. I think she was getting in his way and that's why he insulted her. It was all deeply unprofessional but so is calling cabinet ministers "feral fuck pigs".

I think he took Malcolm Tucker as a role model not as a satirical figure of fun.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 01, 2023, 10:15:23 AM
I don't want to derail the topic (much) but, it seems to me that just insulting a woman doesn't make you a misogynist. I think she was getting in his way and that's why he insulted her. It was all deeply unprofessional but so is calling cabinet ministers "feral fuck pigs".

I think he took Malcolm Tucker as a role model not as a satirical figure of fun.
I don't think just insulting a woman is misogynistic. Using the terms 'stiletto' and 'cunt' though are deliberate attempts to emphasise that she is a woman, and is therefore misogynist.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 01, 2023, 10:31:40 AM
I don't think just insulting a woman is misogynistic. Using the terms 'stiletto' and 'cunt' though are deluberate attempts to emphasise that she is a woman, and is therefore misogynist.

Whilst many people would refer to "cunt" as a gendered slur, it's most often used against men in my experience. The stiletto thing is a bit weird because, clearly, you are meant to think of stiletto heeled shoes but the metaphor makes more sense if you think of actual stilettos.

Or maybe he just didn't put any thought into it.

Anyway, I have already derailed the thread enough, so I'll stop now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 01, 2023, 10:36:30 AM
Whilst many people would refer to "cunt" as a gendered slur, it's most often used against men in my experience. The stiletto thing is a bit weird because, clearly, you are meant to think of stiletto heeled shoes but the metaphor makes more sense if you think of actual stilettos.

Or maybe he just didn't put any thought into it.

Anyway, I have already derailed the thread enough, so I'll stop now.
Cumming uses words deliberately. He knew. The combination of the words and the double meaning of stiletto was entirely meant.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 01, 2023, 10:43:58 AM
Cumming uses words deliberately.

Does he now. I would suggest he is not always as machiavellian as you think. The trip to Barnard's Castle suggests somebody who doesn't always think things through
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 01, 2023, 10:46:11 AM
Does he now. I would suggest he is not always as machiavellian as you think. The trip to Barnard's Castle suggests somebody who doesn't always think things through
That one can be idiot in one way does not preclude being skilled in another. His tool is words. That's a very deliberate conjunction.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SqueakyVoice on November 01, 2023, 12:45:37 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/nov/01/covid-inquiry-boris-johnson-leadership-criticism-oliver-dowden-uk-politics-latest?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-65423e6a8f08af73b5ca5e94#block-65423e6a8f08af73b5ca5e94
Quote
Women working in No 10 felt 'invisible' because of macho culture, inquiry hears

MacNamara says when she returned to No 10 in April, after her illness, she felt the macho culture had become more extreme.

O’Connor quotes from her witness statement, in which she said:

There are numerous examples of women being ignored, excluded, not listened to or talked over. It was also clear that the female perspective was being missed in advice and decision making.. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 01, 2023, 02:18:32 PM
'Not a day when Covid rules followed at No 10' - colour me unsurprised. It was obvious the govt didn't believe the rules applied to it - indeed, Covid merely illustrates a general problem in politics, and this type of attitude was cross party, see Kinnock, Ferrier, Harvie.


https://uk.style.yahoo.com/covid-rules-broken-every-day-133316829.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 02, 2023, 05:40:15 PM
Move over Clotho, Lachesis, and Atropos, Matt Hancock's in town


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-67297446
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Gordon on November 02, 2023, 06:19:58 PM
Matt Hancock: the fuckwit par excellence

Wouldn't trust him to walk my dog (and I don't even have a dog).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 09, 2023, 02:39:53 PM
Tip for the FM - interpret requests for information for inquirys as wide as possible to avoid looking like you are covering up.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-67367302
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 10, 2023, 09:02:49 AM
Tip for the FM - interpret requests for information for inquirys as wide as possible to avoid looking like you are covering up.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-67367302

Yes, but what if you are covering up?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 20, 2023, 01:56:34 PM
Patrick Vallance's Journal of a Plague Year


 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-67472669
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Harrowby Hall on November 20, 2023, 02:15:28 PM

Quote
Patrick Vallance's Journal of a Plague Year

My abiding memories of the daily press conferences - seen on tv early evening, was that most questions to the scientists were intercepted by Johnson - who gave a kind of rambling initial response to each question before allowing the scientific advisors (usually Patrick Vallance or Chris Whitty) the opportunity to say a word. 

To me, the clear implication was that he was the important person there and the others were hired help.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: jeremyp on November 20, 2023, 04:09:46 PM

To me, the clear implication was that he was the important person there and the others were hired help.

That is essentially true. The trouble is that, when you hire help, it's a waste of money if you don't let them help.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SqueakyVoice on November 20, 2023, 05:51:40 PM
That is essentially true. The trouble is that, when you hire help, it's a waste of money if you don't let them help.
He wouldn't even care about wasting other people's money (or tax money as its sometimes called).
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 20, 2023, 11:31:55 PM

Damning of Sunak

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-67479548
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SqueakyVoice on December 06, 2023, 03:36:26 PM
FFS
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/dec/06/boris-johnson-covid-inquiry-pmqs-conservatives-labour-uk-politics-latest#top-of-blog (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/dec/06/boris-johnson-covid-inquiry-pmqs-conservatives-labour-uk-politics-latest#top-of-blog)
'I can't  remember... I don't recall, I can't  remember I don't recall.'
 The only thing he can remember  is arranging  a party for work businesses. Even a fucking shopping trolley  can remember more than this idiot.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 20, 2023, 01:42:15 PM
A 'variant of interest'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-67772390
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SqueakyVoice on December 29, 2023, 04:11:31 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/29/uk-ministers-asked-to-explain-fourth-delay-to-covid-wine-cellar-report
I suspect they've forgotten. Again.

And again.
And again and again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 29, 2023, 04:19:30 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/29/uk-ministers-asked-to-explain-fourth-delay-to-covid-wine-cellar-report
I suspect they've forgotten. Again.

And again.
And again and again.
Too pissed
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 16, 2024, 07:34:02 AM
The inquiry show comes to Scotland. Oh what fun we'll have.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-67985184
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ekim on January 18, 2024, 10:09:08 AM
Let's hope this virus doesn't 'escape'. ....... http://tinyurl.com/mu9s8yjj
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: SqueakyVoice on January 18, 2024, 04:07:33 PM
Let's hope this virus doesn't 'escape'. ....... http://tinyurl.com/mu9s8yjj (http://tinyurl.com/mu9s8yjj)
   If you read the whole, article you'll find out that UK Homeowners Are Eligible For A £1,500 Loft Insulation Voucher .                
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 22, 2024, 11:49:23 AM
In the scheme of scandals and cock ups on Covid, this is a bit puny.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-68049189
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 23, 2024, 09:01:50 PM
This, however, looks bad


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-68066907
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 26, 2024, 12:38:00 PM
.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on January 26, 2024, 12:44:55 PM
Not a huge fan of Nicola but sounds about right to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 26, 2024, 01:26:34 PM
Not a huge fan of Nicola but sounds about right to me.
Though as noted, not her.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on January 26, 2024, 04:02:02 PM
Though as noted, not her.

Oh, totally missed that. Shame.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 27, 2024, 10:31:16 PM
Iain McWhirter on this week on Covid and the SNP


https://archive.vn/bo3QA
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on January 31, 2024, 11:41:28 AM
If further damage is done to Sturgeon's reputation on Covid, what effect will that have on the SNP's polling. It feels to me that there is a possibility of more votes moving dependent on the impact. The Whatsapp stuff though is a bit too messy to cut through on that, I think.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-68145298
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 01, 2024, 07:52:43 AM
I'm not convinced that the guddle over Whatsapp messages is damning as regards the Scottish govt and secrecy but the lack of minutes on the 'Gold' meetings is.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-68156688
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 01, 2024, 02:27:03 PM
Meanwhile Alister Jack and the mystery of Whatsapp.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-68165349
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on February 18, 2024, 09:41:43 AM
Massive cover-up underway concerning mRNA vaccines. Embalmers in the West are finding a new type of clot in the circulatory system of vaccinated people, unlike any naturally occuring clots. Yet coroner's are refusing to investigate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on February 18, 2024, 09:46:56 AM
Massive cover-up underway concerning mRNA vaccines. Embalmers in the West are finding a new type of clot in the circulatory system of vaccinated people, unlike any naturally occuring clots. Yet coroner's are refusing to investigate.

You have evidence for this of course?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on February 18, 2024, 09:56:51 AM
Massive cover-up underway concerning mRNA vaccines. Embalmers in the West are finding a new type of clot in the circulatory system of vaccinated people, unlike any naturally occuring clots. Yet coroner's are refusing to investigate.
Probably all to do with the massive invisible planet Wormwood that is approaching soon
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Aruntraveller on February 18, 2024, 10:00:53 AM
Probably all to do with the massive invisible planet Wormwood that is approaching soon

No, having looked into it further one name - Alex Jones.

File under nut job.

For a complete rebuttal see here(warning some graphic images):

https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/a-clot-too-far-an-embalmer-dissects-antivax-misinformation-about-blood-clots-in-died-suddenly/
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on February 18, 2024, 02:57:15 PM
Massive cover-up underway concerning mRNA vaccines. Embalmers in the West are finding a new type of clot in the circulatory system of vaccinated people, unlike any naturally occuring clots. Yet coroner's are refusing to investigate.

'The article in the Epoch Times claimed that “strange clots” have been found in people who have recently died in the U.S. The article presented a series of testimonials, laboratory analyses, and opinions from medical doctors that convey the overall message that these clots are associated with COVID-19 vaccines. However, the claim is based on anecdotal evidence and flawed experiments that don’t support such an association. COVID-19 itself is much more likely to cause blood clots than the vaccines, which remain an effective strategy to prevent severe COVID-19 and the cardiovascular complications associated with it.'

https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/mike-adams-flawed-analysis-clot-embalmer-richard-hirschman-doesnt-demonstrate-link-between-blood-clots-and-covid-19-vaccines-epoch-times/ (https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/mike-adams-flawed-analysis-clot-embalmer-richard-hirschman-doesnt-demonstrate-link-between-blood-clots-and-covid-19-vaccines-epoch-times/)
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Dicky Underpants on February 18, 2024, 05:42:39 PM
Massive cover-up underway concerning mRNA vaccines. Embalmers in the West are finding a new type of clot in the circulatory system of vaccinated people, unlike any naturally occuring clots. Yet coroner's are refusing to investigate.
No doubt a scam promoted by Andrew Wakefield esq. and his associates. I look forward to their prosecution for disinformation and multiple homicide.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: ad_orientem on February 18, 2024, 05:45:25 PM
These clots are nothing new and they occur post mortem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on March 20, 2024, 01:44:51 PM
The New Yorker cover from 4 years ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Spud on March 20, 2024, 06:53:36 PM
These clots are nothing new and they occur post mortem.
According to various embalmers, they are new and are not like clots formed post mortem. Unlike normal clots they don't disintegrate when handled, and can be stretched like rubber.
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on March 20, 2024, 07:07:12 PM
According to various embalmers, they are new and are not like clots formed post mortem. Unlike normal clots they don't disintegrate when handled, and can be stretched like rubber.

Have you read the link I posted above?
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on April 06, 2024, 05:09:15 PM
From 4 years ago
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 15, 2024, 06:33:31 PM
I missed at the time Edwin Poots idea that the nationalist areas were spreading more Covid


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-69014298
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 21, 2024, 11:09:54 AM
'Long Covid course is ‘exploiting people’, says ex-GB rower' and sounds like unevidenced snake oil.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-69040592
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on May 24, 2024, 01:42:09 PM
Cold War Steve from 4 years ago
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 04, 2024, 04:20:53 PM
Some increases in Covid cases


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c849xzyd9p3o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 13, 2024, 02:58:09 PM
Covid hits Tour De France


https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/articles/cp0896y82j0o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 18, 2024, 09:45:56 AM

Report out due out lunchtime. Amazingly in comparison to many reports on govt, this feels incredibly rapid.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c29dzp2z5y6o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 18, 2024, 01:42:50 PM
Damning


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c4ng7j486pdt
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on July 21, 2024, 03:38:13 PM
Hard to believe that given the scares over SARS viruses in the few years before Covid hit that the strategy wasn't changed. It's interesting that Hunt has been quite so open here, and I have a feeling he's on his way to be appointed to various non partisan positions.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c035v67zjqjo
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on September 09, 2024, 11:08:27 AM
And none of the politicians will have anything happen to them

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cevj3y7n33vo
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Maeght on September 16, 2024, 07:22:03 PM
Another new variant set to take over this Autumn.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1jddenj5p5o
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on November 25, 2024, 07:06:50 PM
Matthew Syed on the inquiry.


https://archive.vn/07YKb
Title: Re: Coronavirus
Post by: Nearly Sane on December 05, 2024, 03:20:57 PM
Friend just got out of intensive care after a bout of Covid. 53, no underlying health conditions. Relieved.