Author Topic: Take the money but open one or two boxes  (Read 743 times)

Nearly Sane

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Take the money but open one or two boxes
« on: November 28, 2016, 07:50:38 AM »
I have posted on Newcombs problem before but this is a clear setting of it, and even offers the chance to submit an answer


https://www.theguardian.com/science/alexs-adventures-in-numberland/2016/nov/28/newcombs-problem-divides-philosophers-which-side-are-you-on

Gordon

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Re: Take the money but open one or two boxes
« Reply #1 on: November 28, 2016, 09:11:07 AM »
These things are maddening - but great fun.

Essentially the problem isn't about the money: it is whether you will do what the Super-Intelligent Being predicts you will do, so you're having to guess on which option she predicts you will choose. Since this Super-Intelligent Being is exactly that: she hasn't been known to be wrong so she must be able to accurately assess the motivation of every person taking the test, therefore in my case her prediction must involve some detailed knowledge about me and my circumstances.

1. This isn't really about money: it is about the Super-Intelligent Being predicting my thinking.

2. If I choose wrongly then I'm losing nothing: I'm just not gaining anything.

3. The Super-Intelligent Being should know enough about me to know that in these circumstances I'd happily forego the prospect of £1,000 for the certainty of £1,000,000.

4. Therefore, I choose Box B and hurry off the the bank to deposit my £1,000,000.

After all, if I don't get the dosh by choosing Box B then it means the Super-Intelligent Being predicted wrongly for the first time ever!


ad_orientem

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Re: Take the money but open one or two boxes
« Reply #2 on: November 28, 2016, 10:38:12 AM »
What is this suppose to solve? I know that everything need not have a point but this conundrum seems stupid. I have one: It's dark and you have two routes, A and B. If you choose A you'll definitely get your feet wet. If you choose B you might accidentally step in dog shit. Which one? Oooo!
« Last Edit: November 28, 2016, 10:43:18 AM by ad_orientem »
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Sebastian Toe

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Re: Take the money but open one or two boxes
« Reply #3 on: November 28, 2016, 12:18:44 PM »
What is this suppose to solve? I know that everything need not have a point but this conundrum seems stupid. I have one: It's dark and you have two routes, A and B. If you choose A you'll definitely get your feet wet. If you choose B you might accidentally step in dog shit. Which one? Oooo!
B
"The word God is for me nothing more than the expression and product of human weaknesses, the Bible a collection of honourable, but still primitive legends.'
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