This wretched year

[jakswan]

I think of this year as being the year when those of us who like to think that we have some empathy with other inhabitants of the world were outvoted by those who boast of having none. I will be raising a glass at midnight on Saturday to celebrate the end of an awful year.

I'm superior to those that I disagree drivel.

[Humph Warden Bennett]

I'm superior to those that I disagree drivel.

Happy New Year 

[Harrowby Hall]

I'm simply putting these ideas out for discussion as I'm not sure whether they hold water or not.

1)  Could the death toll, amongst celebrities, be a result of the increasing pressure from social expectations as expressed through social media and other international media

2)  could it be the inevitable result of the increased abuse of substances overe the years?  I appreciate that alcohol played a large part in the lives and often demise of many celebrities in the past, but has the pharmaceutical 'experimentation' that has been so prevalent since the 60s been a factor in the relatively young ages of so many deaths.

There is an item in the last edition of More or Less about this. There was a blip in the number of "celebrities" dying at the beginning of the year compared with the last few years but 2016 is not out of line with other years.

The problem, Hope, is - like most people - you are not very good at dealing with numerical information over time and you have a relatively poor recollection of what happened a year ago or two years ago - or whatever. Based on your inadequate recollections of years gone by,  you process recently acquired data with less effectiveness than you would consider appropriate and you give greater attention to recent events than distant events. This is commonplace.

Forget social pressure and pharmaceutical experimentation. Certainly these can have an influence but concentrate instead on population statistics rather than individuals and see what the expected number of deaths in each age group is likely to be. Your perception of the incidence of death in particular cohorts is distorted by you choosing to look at individual cases of death.

Certainly the individual cases are interesting (what is the chance of Debbie Reynolds dying the day after her daughter? Probably very low indeed) but is their incidence any different from the deaths within their age cohorts of any of the millions of people you have never heard about?

[Shaker]

(what is the chance of Debbie Reynolds dying the day after her daughter? Probably very low indeed)

Not if shock at the suddenness of her daughter's death was a contributory factor though, as the BBC article goes into in some detail.

[SusanDoris]

I heard a friend of hers earlier today say that Debbie Reynolds had been quite frail for some time.

[Brownie]

Yes and she is, I think, 84 but it still must be devastating to lose a child.

I was thinking a little while ago, when Kirk Douglas reached 100, how glad he must be to see Michael doing so well after having grade 4 cancer.  Then I read that Kirk and his wife did lose an adult son a few years back which was very sad.  So he must be doubly glad not to have outlived any other children, so far at any rate.

[jakswan]

Happy New Year 

Is that a confession.

[Harrowby Hall]

(what is the chance of Debbie Reynolds dying the day after her daughter? Probably very low indeed)

Not if shock at the suddenness of her daughter's death was a contributory factor though, as the BBC article goes into in some detail.

My parenthetical aside runs the risk of derailing this post!

Since I was attempting to look at Hope's original post in terms of population statistics, I will rephrase the question so that Shaker may reconsider his answer.

What is the statistical probability of Debbie Reynolds dying the day after her daughter?

[Hope]

There is an item in the last edition of More or Less about this. There was a blip in the number of "celebrities" dying at the beginning of the year compared with the last few years but 2016 is not out of line with other years.

The problem, Hope, is - like most people - you are not very good at dealing with numerical information over time and you have a relatively poor recollection of what happened a year ago or two years ago - or whatever. Based on your inadequate recollections of years gone by,  you process recently acquired data with less effectiveness than you would consider appropriate and you give greater attention to recent events than distant events. This is commonplace.

As I've mentioned previously, BBC Breakfast ran 2 half-hour 'In Memory' pieces on Christmas Day and Boxing Day.  At one point, one of the presenters noted that there wasn't as much detail attached to each person in those items as in the past, as there were more people to fit into the same time period.  They even queried whether there had been 2 items in previous years.  It would therefore suggest that even the BBC, with all their records, have fallen into this same error.   

[Walter]

As I've mentioned previously, BBC Breakfast ran 2 half-hour 'In Memory' pieces on Christmas Day and Boxing Day.  At one point, one of the presenters noted that there wasn't as much detail attached to each person in those items as in the past, as there were more people to fit into the same time period.  They even queried whether there had been 2 items in previous years.  It would therefore suggest that even the BBC, with all their records, have fallen into this same error.   

They've got to mike an item out of something or we'd be staring at two dimwits on a sofa for a couple of hours .
tbh I stopped watching it sometime ago , I prefer the radio now (JEEZ I'm must be old)

[Hope]

They've got to mike an item out of something or we'd be staring at two dimwits on a sofa for a couple of hours .
tbh I stopped watching it sometime ago , I prefer the radio now (JEEZ I'm must be old)

Oddly enough, Walter, the time that one sees the 'dimwits on a sofa' over the 3 hour+ show is limited to the time they take to link one item with another.  Even when they are interviewing people one often sees other faces, and activities than sitting on a sofa.  Mind you, If one catches the early parts of the programme it can be tedious when they are repeated an hour or two later - but then I don't watch the programme for that long nowadays: usually only the weather - local and national - sports news and the main headlines at 6:30 and the full news at 7:00

[Walter]

Oddly enough, Walter, the time that one sees the 'dimwits on a sofa' over the 3 hour+ show is limited to the time they take to link one item with another.  Even when they are interviewing people one often sees other faces, and activities than sitting on a sofa.  Mind you, If one catches the early parts of the programme it can be tedious when they are repeated an hour or two later - but then I don't watch the programme for that long nowadays: usually only the weather - local and national - sports news and the main headlines at 6:30 and the full news at 7:00

Hope , the problem I find getting up early at this time of year is waiting for it to get light and trying to keep warm .
Coffee and porridge with a dash of whiskey usually helps

[floo]

I get up each day at 6.25am and have my shower and then my daily walk before 7am. I have my simple breakfast at around 9.30am, after I have done some chores.

[Harrowby Hall]

Well, I am usually up at a similar godless hour, Floo, but then I go to the local gym for an hour at 7.00am.

While I am punishing myself for being alive (well, it does seem like that sometimes) I watch the dimwits on a sofa as I cycle or treadmill away. I'm not sure whether they are dimwits or just are taking part in a morning ritual that treats viewers as dimwits. They certainly display the inability to pronounce "harass" correctly, but perhaps that's a consequence of being in Salford.

I drive home listening to the John Humphries Show.

[ad_orientem]

That's not early.

[Walter]

Well, I am usually up at a similar godless hour, Floo, but then I go to the local gym for an hour at 7.00am.

While I am punishing myself for being alive (well, it does seem like that sometimes) I watch the dimwits on a sofa as I cycle or treadmill away. I'm not sure whether they are dimwits or just are taking part in a morning ritual that treats viewers as dimwits. They certainly display the inability to pronounce "harass" correctly, but perhaps that's a consequence of being in Salford.

I drive home listening to the John Humphries Show.

Salford ?
what's significant about that ?

[ippy]

I'm simply putting these ideas out for discussion as I'm not sure whether they hold water or not.

1)  Could the death toll, amongst celebrities, be a result of the increasing pressure from social expectations as expressed through social media and other international media

2)  could it be the inevitable result of the increased abuse of substances overe the years?  I appreciate that alcohol played a large part in the lives and often demise of many celebrities in the past, but has the pharmaceutical 'experimentation' that has been so prevalent since the 60s been a factor in the relatively young ages of so many deaths.

I believe there is a mathmatical forumla for random happenings, I listen to BBC radio 4 every chance I can and can remember a programe about the V2 bomings of London, apparently a grid laid over a map of London, marking where each bomb landed, showed that the guidence system of these bombs, fitted this random mathamatical formula and enabled them to asses information about the guidance system these bombs were using.

The spread or pattern of where these bombs were shown to have landed fitted exactly this apparently well known, mathamatical forumla, which would naturally show the occasional group clusterings of bombs in certain heavily bombed areas and none in some other parts of the grid.

Sorry about the lack of detail but it was quite some time ago that I heard this broadcast, maybe this formula, could be taken as the reason for this rather large quantity deaths grouped together, it will happen like this occasionaly?

ippy

[Brownie]

That's not early.

When the sun is shining nearly all the time, I suppose it isn't!

I hate 'early' and actually like it when it is dark in the morning because it still feels like middle of night and I'm not guilty if I can go back to sleep.  All cosy and warm indoors is what I like best.

Anyway we've gone off the subject of all the celebrity deaths of 2016 - and we still have a bit of time to go.

[Shaker]

When the sun is shining nearly all the time, I suppose it isn't!

I hate 'early' and actually like it when it is dark in the morning because it still feels like middle of night and I'm not guilty if I can go back to sleep.  All cosy and warm indoors is what I like best.

I'm not alone then - so do I!

[Brownie]

Yes!  It's so lovely to feel dozy and snug indoors.

It is now the 31st (I'm still up!), and I am 67 years old.   Blimey, I am getting old.  I'm still here though, unlike so many we've mentioned.

Let's hope we hear no more sad news before 1st Jan.

[ad_orientem]

When the sun is shining nearly all the time, I suppose it isn't!

Only in the summer. In the winter it's dark sll the time.

[Brownie]

I know that, do you still rise early when it's dark and go out all bouncy and cheerful?  I suppose you have to, come to think of it I used to when I was at work, quite liked it too.  Rain, wind, snow - trains = leaves on line, frozen points, signal failure.....took it all in my stride.   Those were the days.   

[ippy]

I know that, do you still rise early when it's dark and go out all bouncy and cheerful?  I suppose you have to, come to think of it I used to when I was at work, quite liked it too.  Rain, wind, snow - trains = leaves on line, frozen points, signal failure.....took it all in my stride.   Those were the days.

After the 21st it won't be getting late in the evenings quite as early as it has been, I just wondered if you might notice this small but progressively onward trend?

ippy

[Humph Warden Bennett]

After the 21st it won't be getting late in the evenings quite as early as it has been, I just wondered if you might notice this small but progressively onward trend?

ippy

FTR the earliest sunset was on 12th December.