Labour achieves panda-parity in Scotland

[Nearly Sane]

The latest Scottish Westminster election poll from YouGov has Labour taking a clear lead, 38% to 32% (with don't knows removed) over the SNP.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/nov/01/covid-inquiry-boris-johnson-leadership-criticism-oliver-dowden-uk-politics-latest?CMP=share_btn_tw&page=with%3Ablock-654266148f08af73b5ca610f#block-654266148f08af73b5ca610f

For a laugh if you slot this into Electoral Calculus you end up with Labour on 34 seats, up 33 on 2019, with the SNP losing 34 seats to end up on 14 from 2019.

Electoral Calculus working on the old boundaries and 2019 results translates this into Labour 33 (+32), SNP 15 (-33), Tories 7 (+1 - with only 2/3 of the votes), and Lib Dems 4 (no change - with only half the votes). One of the seats gone in the boundary change is one of the Glasgow ones, so on these numbers 1 of the 33 Labour seats will be gone. The other seat isn't as clear but looks likely to effectively also be Labour.

[ProfessorDavey]

Electoral Calculus working on the old boundaries and 2019 results translates this into Labour 33 (+32), SNP 15 (-33), Tories 7 (+1 - with only 2/3 of the votes), and Lib Dems 4 (no change - with only half the votes). One of the seats gone in the boundary change is one of the Glasgow ones, so on these numbers 1 of the 33 Labour seats will be gone. The other seat isn't as clear but looks likely to effectively also be Labour.

Yes - good spot.

I think the key point here is that we have moved beyond the 2015-2019 norm in which Scotland doesn't meaningfully contribute to Labour achieving a majority at Westminster.

[Nearly Sane]

Yes - good spot.

I think the key point here is that we have moved beyond the 2015-2019 norm in which Scotland doesn't meaningfully contribute to Labour achieving a majority at Westminster.

  In none of those elections would a similar result have Labour being the largest party, never mind a majority.

[ProfessorDavey]

  In none of those elections would a similar result have Labour being the largest party, never mind a majority.

Not the point - the point is about the likelihood of Labour being able to achieve an overall majority at the next election.

There are plenty of commentators who have been highly sceptical regardless of the current GB polling and one of the reasons being that without making very significant inroads in Scotland it will be extremely hard to make sufficient gains in England and Wales to win a majority. This was based on Scottish polling that suggested a mere handful of gains despite much better polling than 2019. But there is a tipping point where single digit gains rapidly turn into 30+ gains (which is what this poll may suggest). Making 30+ gains in Scotland rather than perhaps less than 10 (e.g. the prediction from the YouGov poll as recently as September) makes a huge difference to the likelihood of an overall majority.

[Nearly Sane]

Not the point - the point is about the likelihood of Labour being able to achieve an overall majority at the next election.

There are plenty of commentators who have been highly sceptical regardless of the current GB polling and one of the reasons being that without making very significant inroads in Scotland it will be extremely hard to make sufficient gains in England and Wales to win a majority. This was based on Scottish polling that suggested a mere handful of gains despite much better polling than 2019. But there is a tipping point where single digit gains rapidly turn into 30+ gains (which is what this poll may suggest). Making 30+ gains in Scotland rather than perhaps less than 10 (e.g. the prediction from the YouGov poll as recently as September) makes a huge difference to the likelihood of an overall majority.

But you quoted 2015 - 2019 - if that wasn't your point, then they are irrelevant.
'I think the key point here is that we have moved beyond the 2015-2019 norm in which Scotland doesn't meaningfully contribute to Labour achieving a majority at Westminster.'

[ProfessorDavey]

But you quoted 2015 - 2019 - if that wasn't your point, then they are irrelevant.
'I think the key point here is that we have moved beyond the 2015-2019 norm in which Scotland doesn't meaningfully contribute to Labour achieving a majority at Westminster.'

Are you being deliberately obtuse NS?

Think about it this way.

Up until 2010 Labour received a higher proportion of the vote in Scotland than in the rest of the UK, and to an even greater extent received a higher proportion of available seats in Scotland than in the rest of the UK. Accordingly Scotland acted as an accelerator to the chance of gaining a majority in a UK-wide general election.

That was completely reversed from 2015 to 2019 - in those elections  Labour received a lower proportion of the vote in Scotland than in the rest of the UK, and to an even greater extent gained a lower proportion of available seats in Scotland than in the rest of the UK. Scotland ceased being an accelerator to the chances of gaining a majority, but became a brake.

If we are seeing a reversion to Scotland acting as an accelerator to the chances of gaining a majority, then that is highly significant. I think currently we haven't quite got there (certainly on polling proportion, which remains lower than the rest of the UK), but if projections suggest Labour will gain a majority of seats in Scotland (as they do on those recent figures) then certainly we've moved beyond Scotland acting as a brake.

[Nearly Sane]

Are you being deliberately obtuse NS?

Think about it this way.

Up until 2010 Labour received a higher proportion of the vote in Scotland than in the rest of the UK, and to an even greater extent received a higher proportion of available seats in Scotland than in the rest of the UK. Accordingly Scotland acted as an accelerator to the chance of gaining a majority in a UK-wide general election.

That was completely reversed from 2015 to 2019 - in those elections  Labour received a lower proportion of the vote in Scotland than in the rest of the UK, and to an even greater extent gained a lower proportion of available seats in Scotland than in the rest of the UK. Scotland ceased being an accelerator to the chances of gaining a majority, but became a brake.

If we are seeing a reversion to Scotland acting as an accelerator to the chances of gaining a majority, then that is highly significant. I think currently we haven't quite got there (certainly on polling proportion, which remains lower than the rest of the UK), but if projections suggest Labour will gain a majority of seats in Scotland (as they do on those recent figures) then certainly we've moved beyond Scotland acting as a brake.

No, I'm struggling to see any clear point. Given that had Scotland voted in 2015, 2017, and 2019 with similar numbers to 2010 and earlier, it still would not have been the largest party, never mind had a majority, how could it work as a brake?