The result of the EU referendum:

[Gonnagle]

Dear Shaker,

 http://goo.gl/n16nb8

Bugger!! Another Scottish referendum, ah well! If you can't beat em join em, time to invest in Scottish flags and move to Edinbugger

Gonnagle.

[Rhiannon]

Sterling's taken a hit. 

[Shaker]

We are a nation of utter dipsticks.

True, but then I thought that long ago.

[ProfessorDavey]

If someone wants to enter the UK from the EU, their passport must be checked however we do not have the right to refuse them entry on economic grounds. We can refuse to allow Indian coders but can't refuse Spanish ones.

But if we need coders we will let them both in regardless of whether there is 'nominal' immigration control. Why, because the whole thing is governed by economic not by politics. If we have skills shortages and jobs that are necessary and cannot be filled any government will ensure that those jobs are filled with migrant workers.

And we see this already - there is a rather interesting aspected to our 'dual' migration approach - in other words free movement from the EU and 'controlled' migration from outside the EU. You'd expect to see much more fluctuation in the 'uncontrolled' EU element compared to the 'controlled' one - but you don't non EU migration goes up and down (on the basis of economic performance and employment requirement) just as much as the EU migration. So while in practice it may seem more 'controlled' in reality it isn't.

Point being were there to be no free movement of labour from the EU and a similar controlled system applied to both EU and non EU migrants I think we'd see exactly the same type of migration fluctuations, driven by economics, as we see now. The notion that we'd suddenly reduce migration to the tens of thousands is naive, unless of course our economy tanks ... hmmm ... wait a minute, that rings a bell. Yup that's what will happen post Brexit - so that's their solution - limit migration because our economy has fallen off a cliff and their aren't jobs to be filled.

[Rhiannon]

True, but then I thought that long ago.

That doesn't make it any less galling.

[ProfessorDavey]

Sterling's taken a hit. 

And I gather there are a bunch of Hedge fund managers funding a private exit poll so they are forewarned of the likely result early in the day and can then 'gamble' (based on their exit poll) on the level of sterling rise (if we remain) or fall (if we vote Brexit), thereby making a massive killing.

[floo]

We have just received our ballot papers and have voted to remain in the EU. I am about to  post them.

[Rhiannon]

And I gather there are a bunch of Hedge fund managers funding a private exit poll so they are forewarned of the likely result early in the day and can then 'gamble' (based on their exit poll) on the level of sterling rise (if we remain) or fall (if we vote Brexit), thereby making a massive killing.

Of course.

George Soros is always one to watch around this kind of thing.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveschaefer/2015/07/07/forbes-flashback-george-soros-british-pound-euro-ecb/#e504c533cefc

He broke the pound before and it's been argued he brought about the 2008 crash - he certainly made a killing from it.

[L.A.]

And I gather there are a bunch of Hedge fund managers funding a private exit poll so they are forewarned of the likely result early in the day and can then 'gamble' (based on their exit poll) on the level of sterling rise (if we remain) or fall (if we vote Brexit), thereby making a massive killing.

The kind of instability that would follow a Brexit vote would be a golden opportunity for all kinds of speculators.

[Aruntraveller]

That doesn't make it any less galling.

Well = look on the bright side Rhi - if the Brexiteers do win you can spend the rest of your life saying 'I told you so'.

I know it's cold comfort - but you do have to look for every silver lining you can!

[jakswan]

Sterling's taken a hit. 

Good news for exporters!

[Rhiannon]

Well = look on the bright side Rhi - if the Brexiteers do win you can spend the rest of your life saying 'I told you so'.

I know it's cold comfort - but you do have to look for every silver lining you can!

Yes, the kids and I will enjoy that while eating our soup made out of weeds and old trainers.

[jeremyp]

No I explained in detail how the EU undermines British democracy.

No, you made some invalid assertions about it.

Oh come on Jeremy you honestly believe there is no legitimate argument for leaving?

No I don't. I can't think of any way in which the people that live in the UK would be better off outside the EU.

If someone wants to enter the UK from the EU, their passport must be checked however we do not have the right to refuse them entry on economic grounds.

No, and this won't change after we leave the EU, not if we want a good trade deal with it.

We can refuse to allow Indian coders but can't refuse Spanish ones. Heck we might need coders but I'd prefer the best ones be allowed entry, not discriminate against the Indian ones simply because they are not European.

Well surely that means we would need to relax the rules a bit on Indian coders, not stop the Spanish ones from getting in.

This refers to outsourcing the NHS to the most efficient parts of the EU where you argued that NHS money leaving to fund operations abroad would come back.

No, I argued in general terms that getting better value abroad generally isn't a losing situation for us.

Davey is citing the £1 - £10 figures which if fanciful nonsense.

No it isn't. I do agree that, if we leave the EU not all of that £10 will go away.

Define expendable:-
of relatively little significance, and therefore able to be abandoned or destroyed.

So peoples livelihoods are of little significance?

That's most dishonest of you. In this context it means that nobody is so indispensable they cannot be fired. Stop poisoning the well.

I never claimed I didn't do that my point was its not the black and white issue you presented.

I didn't present it as a black and white issue.

Again its not as simple as that people want to buy the steel but due to over supply the price has been driven down. There are too many people working in steel across the world, someone has to lose out, I'd prefer our government take action to ensure that the job losses don't entirely fall in the UK. You on the other hand see UK jobs as expendable apparently. [/b]
Given that some people have to be fired, unfortunately, surely the people who should lose their jobs are the ones who are the worst at making steel? You cast me as the villain because I understand that too much steel production means people have to be fired and am honest enough to say so, but you are the same as me except you don't want to fire people based on merit but on where they live.

As I recall the IFS claimed that would be £4,000 per household better of in GDP terms, not per family, not household income. I don't think GDP per household is a widely used stat merely created so Bremaiers can spout it.

The point still stands.

[Shaker]

Yes, the kids and I will enjoy that while eating our soup made out of weeds and old trainers.

Bloody hell - your kids will think you've come into money, Rhi

[jakswan]

We have just received our ballot papers and have voted to remain in the EU. I am about to  post them.

Why didn't you say had I known you were going to vote this way I'd have changed my mind.

[jeremyp]

True, but then I thought that long ago.

The fact that we are even having the debate shows us that it is true.

[ProfessorDavey]

Good news for exporters!

Not when they are hit with tariffs.

Bad news for the ordinary man on the street as there will be inflationary pressures as everything we import will cost more, which drives down real-terms incomes as cost of living rises. Plus inflation will result in the Bank of England needing to raise interest rates increasing the costs of mortgages. And with the down-turn in the economy if we leave compared to staying there will be loss of jobs and downwards pressure on wages.

So a nasty little three way perfect storm.

1. Cost of living increases
2. Wages rising less than if we remain
3. Increased mortgage costs

[jeremyp]

Good news for exporters!

Bad news for anybody not exporting.

[jakswan]

But if we need coders we will let them both in regardless of whether there is 'nominal' immigration control. Why, because the whole thing is governed by economic not by politics.

What if we don't need coders we can strop the Indian ones entering but if you are EU you are allowed to enter.

If we have skills shortages and jobs that are necessary and cannot be filled any government will ensure that those jobs are filled with migrant workers.

Sure I've said multiple times immigration is a good thing.

And we see this already - there is a rather interesting aspected to our 'dual' migration approach - in other words free movement from the EU and 'controlled' migration from outside the EU. You'd expect to see much more fluctuation in the 'uncontrolled' EU element compared to the 'controlled' one - but you don't non EU migration goes up and down (on the basis of economic performance and employment requirement) just as much as the EU migration. So while in practice it may seem more 'controlled' in reality it isn't.

So because it moves the same way it is actually the same?

Point being were there to be no free movement of labour from the EU and a similar controlled system applied to both EU and non EU migrants I think we'd see exactly the same type of migration fluctuations, driven by economics, as we see now. The notion that we'd suddenly reduce migration to the tens of thousands is naive, unless of course our economy tanks ... hmmm ... wait a minute, that rings a bell. Yup that's what will happen post Brexit - so that's their solution - limit migration because our economy has fallen off a cliff and their aren't jobs to be filled.

Which of your "credible sources" claim the economy will tank? Answer none of them.

I think you are arguing a straw man, if we have the jobs I favour immigration, I just want to control it so that wages are not undercut.

Stewart Rose 'If you’re short of labour, the price of labour would go up. So Yes. But that’s not necessarily a good thing.’

[ProfessorDavey]

Davey is citing the £1 - £10 figures which if fanciful nonsense.

No it isn't - indeed this is rather conservative.

Our net contribution to the EU is about £6billion per year. A fairly conservative estimate of the hit to our economy if we leave compared to remaining is about 3% of GDP (this is typically based on us having a Norway-style EEA arrangement so free movement of labour would have to remain and we'd still have to be contributing, in the same manner as Norway which is one of the larger net contributors per person into the EU budget, even though they aren't members).

3% of GDP is about £60billion per year - so every £1 we 'invest' earns us £10 in additional GDP, or about £4.50 in additional public expenditure.

Most estimates modelling a non-EEA type arrangement of bilateral arrangement with the EU suggest about 5-6% hit to GDP compared to remaining - so that would £15-20 for every £1 we 'invest'.

If we are simply on WTO trading terms then that rises to about £25 for every £1 we 'invest'.

These are real numbers from real reports from real independent and credible economic organisations. So rather than just dismissing them in a rather childish manner, why don't you provide your own figures from credible and independent economic organisations to refute them. Oh but you can't, because their aren't any.

 

[ProfessorDavey]

Which of your "credible sources" claim the economy will tank? Answer none of them.

Every one of them predicts a significant hit on the economy if we leave compared to remaining, resulting in reduced GDP compared to remaining, less jobs, reduced personal income etc etc if we leave compared to remaining.

So suggest in the short term we will be tipped into negative growth, a recession even (e.g. Bank of England, Treasury, CBI/PWC, Citi, Deutsche Bank, Nomura, Société Générale) each of which predicts a short term loss of GDP of 3% to 8% if we leave compared to staying which more than cancels out the predicted growth in the remain modelling - in other words we'd see negative growth, the economy shrinking.

[jeremyp]

What if we don't need coders we can strop the Indian ones entering

Whoah!

[jeremyp]

What if we don't need coders we can strop the Indian ones entering but if you are EU you are allowed to enter.

If there are no coding jobs, they'll stop coming.

[BeRational]

If there are no coding jobs, they'll stop coming.

Different question really, but what stops people coming without a job and just living off the state?

[ProfessorDavey]

Different question really, but what stops people coming without a job and just living off the state?

Because they can't - EU migrant are not entitled to the same benefits as UK citizens. They can't claim benefits for 3 months and even after that must be either in work, seeking to work (with a realistic chance of getting a job) or alternatively they must be able to demonstrate they have enough money to live without resorting to benefits.