The result of the EU referendum:

[SusanDoris]

Odds swinging further to Stay now about 13/4 on

Could you please explain as usual for me?

[jakswan]

Could you please explain as usual for me?

The implied probability is that we are 77% likely to see a vote to remain.

If you think the market is too low, you lay the bet and cash out when it moves.

[SusanDoris]

thank you  -souns promising!

[Hope]

In a poll run by Business News Wales, the split in Wales seems to be 59% to leave, 38% to remain and 3% undecided.  http://tinyurl.com/hrdxphx

[ProfessorDavey]

In a poll run by Business News Wales, the split in Wales seems to be 59% to leave, 38% to remain and 3% undecided.  http://tinyurl.com/hrdxphx

Voodoo poll

[jakswan]

Voodoo poll

I know anecdotal but I work in Norwich live in Swansea, I'd say Swansea is for out, Norwich for remain.

[ProfessorDavey]

I know anecdotal but I work in Norwich live in Swansea, I'd say Swansea is for out, Norwich for remain.

I think it is very hard to assess regional opinion without proper polling. You may be right on Swansea as Leave have been quite successful (albeit yet another lie) that Port Talbot would have been saved if it weren't for us being in the EU.

But on this one - I just voted in it, from my office in London. It purports to be a poll of Wales voters - it is nothing of the kind - it is a voodoo poll where anyone from anywhere can 'vote' without any attempt to make the poll demographically representative, or even restrict to those who it purports to be polling.

[Hope]

Voodoo poll

PD, I saw it 'advertised' by the Federation of Small Businesses (Wales) who my wife (who is the member) and I had understood to be for Remain - suggesting that it isn't wholly 'voodoo' as that organisation only contacts businesses within Wales.

[ProfessorDavey]

PD, I saw it 'advertised' by the Federation of Small Businesses (Wales) who my wife (who is the member) and I had understood to be for Remain - suggesting that it isn't wholly 'voodoo' as that organisation only contacts businesses within Wales.

Of course it is a voodoo poll - I just voted in it and I'm not in Wales. Anyone can vote in it wherever they are in the world.

[Hope]

Of course it is a voodoo poll - I just voted in it and I'm not in Wales. Anyone can vote in it wherever they are in the world.

But how many people who aren't Welsh were aware of the link until I posted it here?  I'm not saying that one can't vote in it from outside Wales, but then there are Welsh people living outside of their home country who should be able to vote.

[ProfessorDavey]

But how many people who aren't Welsh were aware of the link until I posted it here?  I'm not saying that one can't vote in it from outside Wales, but then there are Welsh people living outside of their home country who should be able to vote.

You've just answered your own question - someone linked to it via social media.

My Facebook feed is stuffed with tons of Welsh political stuff, mainly because I have a FB friend who is a welsh MP and another who is a vociferous plaid supporter (interestingly living in the same constituency so the former is the MP of the latter).

It's a voodoo poll.

[Nearly Sane]

Much discussion in the more untamed parts of the Web about Jo Cox's murder being a false flag event to affect the referendum. Strangely the same people were claiming Orlando as a false flag too.

[Nearly Sane]

As ever while there might be bits I disagree with, it's well written and makes excellent points from Alex Massie


http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/every-political-generation-low-moment/

[Jack Knave]

If immigration treaties are suspended by the UK then the EU has no further need to stop immigration of Non EU nationals from France. Last year the brief and low scale disturbances with the tunnel led to loss to the Kent economy......We can imagine what a retaliatory suspension of border control would be.

saying that the world has no choice but be nice sounds a bit James Bond to me.
They only have to start to be a bit tit for tat to create problems.

The precedent question is therefore. How much was lost to the British economy during Operation Stack and how much was lost to the French economy?

Legally we can send any immigrants back to France due to the Dublin Accord as that is where they came from. If need be we can close the tunnel down as a very last resort.

The issue with the EU is non of the things people are talking about here. It is about the concentration of power to Brussels where in the future a psychopath could then take control; as seen with Stalin in the USSR. We are not only freeing ourselves we are a pied piper for the Brussels hellhole.
 

[Jack Knave]

If you had listened to those 'More or less' broadcasts you would realise that:

A/ There will be no massive 'windfall' from ending our EU subscription.

B/ The size of that payment is small compared to the benefits of membership.

The EU market is still one of the largest and most important in the world, we can't afford to turn our back on it!


The world is not going to come rushing to our rescue if we get ourselves in deep shit.

Perhaps if you read my posts you wouldn't come out with such ill-informed rubbish.

A - besides the point.

B - Not true. As you assume that we won't be getting those benefits when we leave, if those doing the negotiations do it properly.

The EU is stagnating and the EZ is in crisis. You again foolishly assume that when you talk about the EU it is as it is now. It won't be because we would have left, leaving it without our fee and so putting this extra burden on the other bankrupt members.

Without us the EU would quickly crack up.

[jeremyp]

And since I am not arguing that they are it's a specious point.

It's rather egotistical of you to assume that everything said on this thread must be in answer to a point you made.

I'm also not saying that you do think it is highly probable, you have made it clear that you do not think it is. I am  discussing the likelihood though and saying I don't think it will happen at no point have I said that it can't.

Well we'll have to agree to agree then.

[Jack Knave]

In that scenario, UKIP would be seen as a major part of the problem - the only ones who might come out 'smelling of roses' would be the Lib Dems.

That's just highly risible. What warped mind thinks that's a rational idea? Oh yes, LA's.

[Jack Knave]

Meanwhile, for viewers in Scotland.............Ha Ha Ha.

And how would Scotland stop it? Ha Ha Haa.

[Nearly Sane]

Well we'll have to agree to agree then.

Is that allowed?

[Jack Knave]

I've always found it strange that people could take such an obvious bunch of clowns seriously - maybe it is a symptom of a serious problem in our educational system?

You have the perfect example in the Scots and the SNP!!! 

[jeremyp]

I was just musing about Corbyn's point, when asked about limits to immigration, who said that free movement contradicts that.   This seems obvious - as soon as you set a limit, you do not have free movement.

But historically, this is fascinating, since the right have traditionally advocated market economics, (which includes movement of capital, people, goods and services), and the left have criticized it.  But now in the EU debate you seem to have the reverse, the right-wing are recommending state control of immigration, and the left arguing against it, (even though it may lower wages).

For most intelligent politicians, migration is a non issue except insofar as their electorate gets agitated about it. The real reason that the government has never really grasped the nettle of immigration is that it is beneficial to everybody except the British losers who find themselves unemployed as a result.

Migrants from the EU tend to be economically active, thus paying taxes and not to be a drain on resources because they are usually young and fit and if they can't get a job, they go elsewhere in the EU. If you're a in government trying to balance the books, what's not to like about that? I listened to the More or Less programme on immigration yesterday. They had an expert on who said that, if Leavers win, the government will reduce immigration for a bit just to prove they can and then just let it creep up again because it's good for them.

By the way, studies of immigration, particularly in the USA show that it doesn't affect wages as much as you might think.

Of course, there are other arguments against free movement, for example, Farage's idea that I would not like to live next to Romanians, or whoever.  And this argument seems to be heard on the campaign trail - there are too many of 'them' here.

Farage is a racist shit.

But I think  that in classical economics, migration is a response to labour shortages.

Yes it is and British workers have benefitted in the past. In the dark days of the 80's many workers found they could go to places like Germany and get good work.

[Jack Knave]

No, I think it was probably when they stopped doing metalwork. That kind of hands-on stuff taught you to spot bullshit a mile off.

Didn't work for you!!! 

[jeremyp]

While I wouldn't pretend to have the slightest grasp of the working of the SNP, the simple fact remains: last time, independence would have been a very risky option - if there were a Brexit vote independence could be the safe option.

Despite the fact that I agree it could happen, there would still be interesting hurdles. For example, if the UK handed in its notice, Scotland would still have to apply as a new member.

[Jack Knave]

Gove takes the piss.

Asking people to vote for democracy.

If you've got a vote you've got democracy...................

Not if we stay in the EU.

[jeremyp]

Heard an interesting report on R4 this evening.

Somebody has just done a Europe wide poll on EU scepticism and the Brexit referendum. Apparently a small majority want Britain to stay in - unsurprising as we are the third largest net contributor. However opinion on whether people want their own country to stay in the EU is on the same kind of knife edge as it is here.

And here is the kicker (according to the reporter), EU politicians are frightened that a British Leave vote would prompt people in other countries in the EU to leave particularly if we negotiate a good deal with the EU post Brexit. This means we won't be able to get a good deal with the EU after Brexit which means we are stuffed.