The result of the EU referendum:

[L.A.]

How accurate will his decision be given that we are told that votes depend on him rather than what you are suggesting, that he is looking to see what we do.

I have no doubt that Boris wants to be on the winning side - how good is his judgement - who knows?

[jeremyp]

A lying toad lies and tries the fear factor.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

Are there any deaths the out-campaigners will not stoop to?

[Nearly Sane]

And on the subject of strange bedfellows, I find myself agreeing with Niall Ferguson, a very unusual occurrence



http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/comment/regulars/article1669873.ece

[Shaker]

I can't read the full article as it peters out after a couple of paragraphs, upon which I am enjoined to subscribe to read the complete Montgomery.

Which, given that it's by Niall Ferguson, is a blessing.

[Nearly Sane]

Yes, I know what you mean, I had access to it elsewhere without coughing up but don't have a free version. That I agree with Ferguson on much of it just emphasises the strangeness of what will happen. Normally I a not allowed to mention his name in the house as it sets me off too much.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

I have no doubt that Boris wants to be on the winning side - how good is his judgement - who knows?

I find Boris reluctance to come out with it disturbing because either he knows and is attention seeking or he doesn't already know and go to the toss of a coin.

Perhaps he will consult the person behind most of his achievements for London......Ken Livingstone.

[Jack Knave]

A lying toad lies and tries the fear factor.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409

Are there any deaths the out-campaigners will not stoop to?

Are you saying the Stay campaign aren't doing this?

Cameron was spewing this stuff with Andrew Marr.

[Jack Knave]

Yes, I know what you mean, I had access to it elsewhere without coughing up but don't have a free version. That I agree with Ferguson on much of it just emphasises the strangeness of what will happen. Normally I a not allowed to mention his name in the house as it sets me off too much.

As we can't read it tell us what it says, why you agree with it and why you hate the man's guts so.

[Nearly Sane]

As we can't read it tell us what it says, why you agree with it and why you hate the man's guts so.

Basically it posits that pro EU used to be the Utopians but now that has been taken over by those who want out in that they think it will now make everything OK. It echoes what the chair of Rio Tinto supposed said recently that the only thing worse than being in the EU is not being in the EU.


As to myself and Niall, well other than I think he generally dresses up his views on a faux neoliberalism to make them more monetarily rewarding, and that this form of politics is simplistic and uncaring, nothing that is any of your business.

[L.A.]

I find Boris reluctance to come out with it disturbing because either he knows and is attention seeking or he doesn't already know and go to the toss of a coin.

Perhaps he will consult the person behind most of his achievements for London......Ken Livingstone.

Boris is not an unintelligent man (despite the outer shell of buffoonery) and he has concluded that the next leader of the Conservative Party is unlikely to have supported the losing side in the referendum - so he is thinking very hard - because he wants to be that next leader.

[Nearly Sane]

Boris is not an unintelligent man (despite the outer shell of buffoonery) and he has concluded that the next leader of the Conservative Party is unlikely to have supported the losing side in the referendum - so he is thinking very hard - because he wants to be that next leader.

Indeed and he's now outed as outer. He is far from stupid, I just doubt he has many principles.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35626621

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Boris is not an unintelligent man (despite the outer shell of buffoonery) and he has concluded that the next leader of the Conservative Party is unlikely to have supported the losing side in the referendum - so he is thinking very hard - because he wants to be that next leader.

Which will be short lived if the celtic countries hold referendums to leave the UK.

[Jack Knave]

Basically it posits that pro EU used to be the Utopians but now that has been taken over by those who want out in that they think it will now make everything OK. It echoes what the chair of Rio Tinto supposed said recently that the only thing worse than being in the EU is not being in the EU.

You mean that the only thing worse than being in the USSR is not being in the USSR. Well that makes sense!!! NOT.

[Nearly Sane]

You mean that the only thing worse than being in the USSR is not being in the USSR. Well that makes sense!!! NOT.

I can see that might disagree with it but in and of itself as a view it makes perfect sense. There is a choice here and all the statement covers is that neither is an ideal but one is better than the other.

[jakswan]

that this form of politics is simplistic and uncaring,

Do irony much?

Can you outline why you are for staying in, then why you are out for staying out of the UK union.

[Nearly Sane]

Do irony much?

Can you outline why you are for staying in, then why you are out for staying out of the UK union.

The relationship of what I think a specific set of politics espoused by an individual to a general, and quite interesting question is a non sequitur.

Can you explain how you think the first part of your posts relates to the second?


As to the very valid question you post, that's a long answer, and I mean long, so if it's OK i'll get back to you some time when I have proper time to do it justice. At this stage, i'll just note that I see it as finely balanced on both questions, and while there are similarities, they aren't the same.

[L.A.]

Which will be short lived if the celtic countries hold referendums to leave the UK.

Yes, he's finally jumped - I think (and hope) he has got it wrong, which will mean the end of his dreams of becoming PM.

[jakswan]

The relationship of what I think a specific set of politics espoused by an individual to a general, and quite interesting question is a non sequitur.

Can you explain how you think the first part of your posts relates to the second?


As to the very valid question you post, that's a long answer, and I mean long, so if it's OK i'll get back to you some time when I have proper time to do it justice. At this stage, i'll just note that I see it as finely balanced on both questions, and while there are similarities, they aren't the same.

Look forward to it I know our politics differ but do respect your opinion.

I for leave for both because there is a democratic deficit for both.

[Nearly Sane]

This says nothing about whether he is right on this but just maybe question his motives

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fj686CmGGSA

[L.A.]

This says nothing about whether he is right on this but just maybe question his motives

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fj686CmGGSA

If he has chosen the wrong side, his ambitions of Downing Street will be greatly diminished - he might just get a job a junior minister for office stationary.

[jakswan]

If he has chosen the wrong side, his ambitions of Downing Street will be greatly diminished - he might just get a job a junior minister for office stationary.

Like it or not he is box office and will swing quite a few to vote leave.

[Aruntraveller]

If he has chosen the wrong side, his ambitions of Downing Street will be greatly diminished - he might just get a job a junior minister for office stationary.

Not necessarily - given that the majority of the party are Eurosceptic (and that's being kind), if he is percieved to have a good campaign even if he's on the losing side - he will still be well positioned and thought of within his own party tpo push for what he is so clearly desperate for.

[jeremyp]

Boris is not an unintelligent man (despite the outer shell of buffoonery) and he has concluded that the next leader of the Conservative Party is unlikely to have supported the losing side in the referendum - so he is thinking very hard - because he wants to be that next leader.

On the Today Programme this morning, the political correspondent claimed that this is a Tory leadership election. If Cameron loses, his position as PM will be untenable whereas, if Johnson loses, his ambitions to be PM will be over.

[jeremyp]

Do irony much?

Can you outline why you are for staying in, then why you are out for staying out of the UK union.

Actually, since staying in is the status quo position and we do alright in the EU, I think the onus is on the leavers to explain why we would be better off out of it.

[ProfessorDavey]

On the Today Programme this morning, the political correspondent claimed that this is a Tory leadership election. If Cameron loses, his position as PM will be untenable whereas, if Johnson loses, his ambitions to be PM will be over.

I agree that if Cameron loses he is toast and would have to be replaced by someone from the 'winning' side, hence Boris as massive favourite - so this I think is Boris' calculation - by opting for 'leave' that there is a decent chance that he could be PM by late summer.

If 'Stay' wins, then Cameron is safe, so there won't be a vacancy for perhaps 3 years. That's a long time in politics and enough time for Boris to quietly drop the 'error' of backing the wrong side. Indeed he is already hedging his bets, kind of implying that he wants to vote out, to then renegotiate seriously and ... err ... stay in.

I think one thing is certain - we won't actually see much of Boris in the campaign - he won't be a major player - to do so would damage him too much if his side loses. By contrast he doesn't need to have been a leading player in a successful leave vote for him to be in poll position to take over from Cameron if he is forced to resign having lost the referendum.

He's not daft - very clear political calculation from Boris - but the problem is that it is all too obvious and maybe that is his achilles heal - when there is sufficient passion and the stakes are high I'm not sure the public (or the media) will take too kindly to this sort of overt political game-playing.