The result of the EU referendum:

[Walt Zingmatilder]

The result of the EU referendum is a foregone conclusion: Stay in and come out.

If the general election result was due to a desire for the status quo then We will vote to stay in.

On the other hand if it was due to English nationalism then we will vote to come out.

[Shaker]

I agree that it's a foregone conclusion: I believe that the result would be to leave the EU, because majority popular sentiment leans that way.

Unfortunately this is based on the majority of the population having little to no clue of any serious, sober, thoughtful cost-benefit analysis of EU membership. The vast majority of people have absolutely no idea of what the positives and negatives of membership actually entail and fill that vacuum by falling back on popular press sloganeering, vague half-formed ideas and everybody's favourite, gut instinct. A referendum held tomorrow or next week or next month would on that basis be a landslide "No" vote. The only remote possibility of changing this state of affairs would be if the government were to produce, in the form of a leaflet or some such, something which could educate the public in clear, simple, jargon-free language an impartial, disinterested, neutrally-couched explanation of what EU membership means and what exit would mean, delivered to every household in the realm as has been done before on occasion.

Staying in may well be the best option. Coming out may well be the best option. But for Christ's sake, let's have an informed populace capable of making a truly informed decision.

[Harrowby Hall]

I agree that it's a foregone conclusion: I believe that the result would be to leave the EU, because majority popular sentiment leans that way.

Unfortunately this is based on the majority of the population having little to no clue of any serious, sober, thoughtful cost-benefit analysis of EU membership. The vast majority of people have absolutely no idea of what the positives and negatives of membership actually entail and fill that vacuum by falling back on popular press sloganeering, vague half-formed ideas and everybody's favourite, gut instinct. A referendum held tomorrow or next week or next month would on that basis be a landslide "No" vote. The only remote possibility of changing this state of affairs would be if the government were to produce, in the form of a leaflet or some such, something which could educate the public in clear, simple, jargon-free language an impartial, disinterested, neutrally-couched explanation of what EU membership means and what exit would mean, delivered to every household in the realm as has been done before on occasion.

Staying in may well be the best option. Coming out may well be the best option. But for Christ's sake, let's have an informed populace capable of making a truly informed decision.

My observation is different from yours. I suppose it may just be the company I keep, but most of the people I know are horrified at the prospect of leaving the EU.

We don't need a jargon-free leaflet. It would just go in the recycling. We need a national open debate. We need projections into the future to see what the long term effect is on employment and national wealth.

Of course, the only reason we are going to have a referendum is because an insecure prime minister considered it to be the only thing which would silence a small minority of right-wing trouble makers in his party. Cameron doesn't really want it but he is stuck with it.

It's the same reason Harold Wilson had for the earlier referendum - to shut the troublemakers (in his case Tony Benn et al) up!

[Shaker]

My observation is different from yours. I suppose it may just be the company I keep, but most of the people I know are horrified at the prospect of leaving the EU.

We don't need a jargon-free leaflet. It would just go in the recycling. We need a national open debate. We need projections into the future to see what the long term effect is on employment and national wealth.

I don't doubt that that we may move in different circles!

But I don't think we're arguing at cross purposes either: what we both apparently want is for no debate to take place without an informed populace who know what they're discussing.

[Owlswing]

My observation is different from yours. I suppose it may just be the company I keep, but most of the people I know are horrified at the prospect of leaving the EU.

We don't need a jargon-free leaflet. It would just go in the recycling. We need a national open debate. We need projections into the future to see what the long term effect is on employment and national wealth.

I don't doubt that that we may move in different circles!

But I don't think we're arguing at cross purposes either: what we both apparently want is for no debate to take place without an informed populace who know what they're discussing.

. . . an informed populace?

Informed by whom? By politicians and businessmen with their own interests foremost in their minds.

Information required:

Just how much do we put into the EU?

Just how much do we get out of it?

Just how much of "British" industry is ownbed by EU counties other than the UK - like power companies, the airportds sold off be BAA?

When are we gioing to get a few laws passed that do not specifically or by omission affect only the UK?

How much are the various MEP's a bureaucrats fiddling out of the budget and what is being dome to stop this? ( If recent hoistory is anything to go by the answer will be Sweet Bugger All)

The chances of truthful answers? Probably near to zero.

[jeremyp]

My observation is different from yours. I suppose it may just be the company I keep, but most of the people I know are horrified at the prospect of leaving the EU.

We don't need a jargon-free leaflet. It would just go in the recycling. We need a national open debate. We need projections into the future to see what the long term effect is on employment and national wealth.

I don't doubt that that we may move in different circles!

But I don't think we're arguing at cross purposes either: what we both apparently want is for no debate to take place without an informed populace who know what they're discussing.

. . . an informed populace?

Informed by whom? By politicians and businessmen with their own interests foremost in their minds.

Information required:

Just how much do we put into the EU?

Just how much do we get out of it?

Just how much of "British" industry is ownbed by EU counties other than the UK - like power companies, the airportds sold off be BAA?

When are we gioing to get a few laws passed that do not specifically or by omission affect only the UK?

How much are the various MEP's a bureaucrats fiddling out of the budget and what is being dome to stop this? ( If recent hoistory is anything to go by the answer will be Sweet Bugger All)

The chances of truthful answers? Probably near to zero.

I love it when somebody on this forum posts an opinion and then somebody else confirms it.  Your questions speak to an uninformed position probably gleaned by reading the anti-Europe press. 

[Owlswing]

My observation is different from yours. I suppose it may just be the company I keep, but most of the people I know are horrified at the prospect of leaving the EU.

We don't need a jargon-free leaflet. It would just go in the recycling. We need a national open debate. We need projections into the future to see what the long term effect is on employment and national wealth.

I don't doubt that that we may move in different circles!

But I don't think we're arguing at cross purposes either: what we both apparently want is for no debate to take place without an informed populace who know what they're discussing.

. . . an informed populace?

Informed by whom? By politicians and businessmen with their own interests foremost in their minds.

Information required:

Just how much do we put into the EU?

Just how much do we get out of it?

Just how much of "British" industry is ownbed by EU counties other than the UK - like power companies, the airportds sold off be BAA?

When are we gioing to get a few laws passed that do not specifically or by omission affect only the UK?

How much are the various MEP's a bureaucrats fiddling out of the budget and what is being dome to stop this? ( If recent hoistory is anything to go by the answer will be Sweet Bugger All)

The chances of truthful answers? Probably near to zero.

I love it when somebody on this forum posts an opinion and then somebody else confirms it.  Your questions speak to an uninformed position probably gleaned by reading the anti-Europe press.

And who is going to do the informing - you?

Your comment shows you to be as biased as you alledge that i am!

[Walt Zingmatilder]

I see John Redwood recommends some kind of 'consensus' with Labour and UKIP over the referendum whatever that means....
or maybe he just wants a kind of coalition like that in the Scottish referendum and General election where the other parties can ''Lightning Rod'' for the conservatives.

[BashfulAnthony]

I agree that it's a foregone conclusion: I believe that the result would be to leave the EU, because majority popular sentiment leans that way.

Unfortunately this is based on the majority of the population having little to no clue of any serious, sober, thoughtful cost-benefit analysis of EU membership. The vast majority of people have absolutely no idea of what the positives and negatives of membership actually entail and fill that vacuum by falling back on popular press sloganeering, vague half-formed ideas and everybody's favourite, gut instinct. A referendum held tomorrow or next week or next month would on that basis be a landslide "No" vote. The only remote possibility of changing this state of affairs would be if the government were to produce, in the form of a leaflet or some such, something which could educate the public in clear, simple, jargon-free language an impartial, disinterested, neutrally-couched explanation of what EU membership means and what exit would mean, delivered to every household in the realm as has been done before on occasion.

Staying in may well be the best option. Coming out may well be the best option. But for Christ's sake, let's have an informed populace capable of making a truly informed decision.

That's never going to happen, about this issue, or any other  -  Ever!

[jakswan]

Farage's pitch will be 'vote no to the EU, if we leave Scotland are certain to fuck off!'

[Hope]

I agree that it's a foregone conclusion: I believe that the result would be to leave the EU, because majority popular sentiment leans that way.

Shaker, I'd say that only about 5% of the people I know believe that the UK ought to leave the EU.  I have had this debate in staffrooms and classrooms at schools, youth clubs at church, the railway I'm involved with, and a whole host of other contexts.  I would put my circle of friends (ie those whose names and addresses I have listed in address books, at about 300) and acquaintances (ie those people I know but at a lesser degree at another 3-400).  OK, not quite a statistical sample numerically, but statistical in their spread of political allegiances, 'class' status, etc.

I believ that the pro-EU vote in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales will more or less counter-balance the anti-EU vote across the UK, leaving the vast majority of English votes as the balance of a 'stay-in' result.  That could then have a major impact on whether Scotland leaves both Unions by becoming independent.

[Gordon]

Farage's pitch will be 'vote no to the EU, if we leave Scotland are certain to fuck off!'

Many here would be happy to do so 

The scenario of England (not so much Wales in terms of size) voting to leave the EU, in line with the increase in Tory support south of the border we've just seen, makes that outcome possible I suppose. If I were an English Tory I'd want to get rid of Scotland before Labour had even the chance to rebuild here, such as if the SNP wiped out Labour in the Holyrood election next year, since in that case I reckon Labour in its current form will be finished here - and, if so, surely the Tories would see a permanent majority in England and Wales without any further possibility of there being any Scottish Labour seats.

The other interesting scenario would be if all parts of the current UK voted to stay in the EU - would that not risk the Tory party tearing itself to pieces to the extent that UKIP (or a replacement for UKIP) might then emerge and would split the existing Tory support in England?

Interesting times still then!

[jakswan]

I believ that the pro-EU vote in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales will more or less counter-balance the anti-EU vote across the UK, leaving the vast majority of English votes as the balance of a 'stay-in' result. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_referendum_on_United_Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union

Opinion polls have mostly been in favour.

[Hope]

The other interesting scenario would be if all parts of the current UK voted to stay in the EU - would that not risk the Tory party tearing itself to pieces to the extent that UKIP (or a replacement for UKIP) might then emerge and would split the existing Tory support in England?

Interesting times still then!

It might, Goron, but there would still only be two major right-of-centre parties, as opposed to the 4 or 5 left-of-centre parties.

That said, I think that the nature of UKIP would still be as a minority (Lib-Dem-esque?) party.

[Nearly Sane]

Most immediate piece of interest is if nww Justice Secretary Red Mike tries to get rid of Human Rights legislation as there are issues with devolution across the board on ittt. Interestingly one of the areas they could struggle with is NI

[jakswan]

Farage's pitch will be 'vote no to the EU, if we leave Scotland are certain to fuck off!'

Many here would be happy to do so 

Yes 45% according to last count.

The scenario of England (not so much Wales in terms of size) voting to leave the EU, in line with the increase in Tory support south of the border we've just seen, makes that outcome possible I suppose.

I think Cameron is pretty clearly pro-EU so not sure I follow the logic.

If I were an English Tory I'd want to get rid of Scotland before Labour had even the chance to rebuild here, such as if the SNP wiped out Labour in the Holyrood election next year, since in that case I reckon Labour in its current form will be finished here - and, if so, surely the Tories would see a permanent majority in England and Wales without any further possibility of there being any Scottish Labour seats.

No I think the mainstream view is that the Union works but unless powers are devolved quickly it won't work much longer. If you watch Marr this morning you'll see both Labour & Tories take that view. In terms of further devolution the Tories and SNP are on the same side, in fact I think the Tories will want to ensure that the Scottish Parliament is responsible and accountable as fast as possible.

The other interesting scenario would be if all parts of the current UK voted to stay in the EU - would that not risk the Tory party tearing itself to pieces to the extent that UKIP (or a replacement for UKIP) might then emerge and would split the existing Tory support in England?

Interesting times still then!

I think the uncertainty over a neverendum means that once its done it will be done for 20 years+. I think most likely we'll see regional but allied parties emerge.

[Gonnagle]

Dear Shaker,

Correct, I would class myself as one of the totally uneducated when it comes to politics and the EU.

What do I know about the EU, it allows freedom of movement and they like food mountains, yes lesson for today, find out how the EU affects me.

Gonnagle.

[floo]

I think we would be CRAZY to leave the EU. The UK is too small to stand alone in this day and age, imo.

[jeremyp]

And who is going to do the informing - you?

No.  You need to find a source more trustworthy than the ant-EU newspapers.

Your comment shows you to be as biased as you alledge that i am!

I don't see how you can say that since I didn't express an opinion about the EU itself.  However, let's take one of your questions:

Just how much of "British" industry is ownbed by EU counties other than the UK - like power companies, the airportds sold off be BAA?

If companies in other countries are buying up British companies, it's nothing to do with the EU and everything to do with our own law.  Companies from countries outside of the EU are also able to buy British companies c.f. Kraft and Cadbury.

[jeremyp]

Farage's pitch will be 'vote no to the EU, if we leave Scotland are certain to fuck off!'

UKIP policy is to keep Scotland in the Union.  Seems a bit hypocritical, but there you go.

[Nearly Sane]

Good blog on the Human Rights Act issue

http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/scotland-and-human-rights-act-abolition.html

[jeremyp]

If I were an English Tory I'd want to get rid of Scotland before Labour had even the chance to rebuild here, such as if the SNP wiped out Labour in the Holyrood election next year, since in that case I reckon Labour in its current form will be finished here - and, if so, surely the Tories would see a permanent majority in England and Wales without any further possibility of there being any Scottish Labour seats.

I don't think English Tories generally want to ditch Scotland.  In their view, the Union has always been a Good Thing.  Furthermore, this idea that there would be a permanent Tory majority in E&W is a myth.  The last three Labour majorities would still have been Labour majorities without Scotland.

The other interesting scenario would be if all parts of the current UK voted to stay in the EU - would that not risk the Tory party tearing itself to pieces to the extent that UKIP (or a replacement for UKIP) might then emerge and would split the existing Tory support in England?

No.  What would happen is that the Euro sceptics would have to shut up. 

[BashfulAnthony]

I think we would be CRAZY to leave the EU. The UK is too small to stand alone in this day and age, imo.

Too small?  Sixth largest economy in the world?

[Shaker]

I think we would be CRAZY to leave the EU. The UK is too small to stand alone in this day and age, imo.

Too small?  Sixth largest economy in the world?

EU supporters would argue that that's because we're in the EU. There's no fair comparison to make - a UK in the EU next to a UK out - to see if the economy would be the same. (Or better. Or worse).

[L.A.]

I think we would be CRAZY to leave the EU. The UK is too small to stand alone in this day and age, imo.

Too small?  Sixth largest economy in the world?

The EU is the worlds second greatest economic region (neck and neck with China and America) and likewise one of the most significant markets in the world. The UK would have to be CRAZY to give-up unrestricted access to such a market.