The result of the EU referendum:

[Jack Knave]

If there is a leave vote then as sure as night follows day we will see a vote in Scotland for independence so Cameron will have presided over the breakup of the UK.

He would, of course, have to resign.

Scotland can have a vote but it won't be legal and binding.

[ProfessorDavey]

Scotland can have a vote but it won't be legal and binding.

And would a vote in the upcoming referendum on leaving the EU be legal and binding? Probably not.

[Nearly Sane]

Scotland can have a vote but it won't be legal and binding.

it might or might not, that would depend on what happens then.

[ProfessorDavey]

Scotland can have a vote but it won't be legal and binding.

That's true - the only authority that can dissolve the union would be the UK government. But just as in the referendum a couple of years ago I cannot see the UK government failing to move to ratify a clear vote in Scotland to leave the UK.

[jeremyp]

And what do you think (I'm being generous there) they are?

I don't know. You tell me.

[Nearly Sane]

And would a vote in the upcoming referendum on leaving the EU be legal and binding? Probably not.

Legal , yes. Binding, depends. It could be framed and i suspect there will be discussion when legislation is placed about making it binding in the sense that further legislation would be needed to make it non binding.

[Jack Knave]

And I might move to Scotland in order to remain in the EU.

Good luck with that one.

And do rescind your UK status, we wouldn't want you to come crawling back when it all goes pear shaped!!!

[jeremyp]

Good luck with that one.

And do rescind your UK status, we wouldn't want you to come crawling back when it all goes pear shaped!!!

So you admit it's all going to go pear shaped if we leave the EU.

[Jack Knave]

It would be interesting to know what the mechanism for Scotland joining the EU would be under those circumstances. So if the UK left the EU prior to Scotland becoming independent the arguments used in the earlier referendum of fast tracking into the EU as they were effectively already part of the EU wouldn't hold. It could be a bureaucratic nightmare.

Scotland would be sucked into the Ever-Closer-Union nightmare!!!

[Nearly Sane]

I think it would be better to drop the 'legal' Here. It would be quite hard to have an illegal referendum. Binding is theoretically possible in a notional sense since you could have it in the law that the govt in power had to enact any choice by the end of the parliament but i can't see it as enforceable.

[ProfessorDavey]

I think it would be better to drop the 'legal' Here. It would be quite hard to have an illegal referendum. Binding is theoretically possible in a notional sense since you could have it in the law that the govt in power had to enact any choice by the end of the parliament but i can't see it as enforceable.

That's true but the only authority that could make it binding would be the UK government as they are the only ones that can enact it. So unless the UK government plan to hold a referendum (and that is extremely unlikely) then the referendum will be called by the Scottish government and cannot be binding on the UK government. In practice of course if the UK government accepts the legitimacy of the referendum (they don't have to of course) then they are pretty well obliged to accept and act on its result.

[Jack Knave]

Yep, I entirely agree with that. And I would go further even if the two things were somehow done in sync it would be a nightmare.

You lot have this all wrong. Scotland joined the EU as part of the UK and so it is predicated on that. If the UK leaves then Scotland has left and to join would mean to start from scratch and Brussels wants everyone to be under its thumb so Scotland would be subject to the full Monty with not special conditions or opt outs. In the end Scotland would end up like Greece.

[Nearly Sane]

That's true but the only authority that could make it binding would be the UK government as they are the only ones that can enact it. So unless the UK government plan to hold a referendum (and that is extremely unlikely) then the referendum will be called by the Scottish government and cannot be binding on the UK government. In practice of course if the UK government accepts the legitimacy of the referendum (they don't have to of course) then they are pretty well obliged to accept and act on its result.

Yep, I agree with that but I'm actually sceptical it would be binding if a govt post referendum decided not to enforce it.

[Nearly Sane]

You lot have this all wrong. Scotland joined the EU as part of the UK and so it is predicated on that. If the UK leaves then Scotland has left and to join would mean to start from scratch and Brussels wants everyone to be under its thumb so Scotland would be subject to the full Monty with not special conditions or opt outs. In the end Scotland would end up like Greece.

We haven't even approached that. Indeed in part we are agreeing with it. It's the mechanics before we even get there that are a nightmare. We haven't even got to the actual settlements on any side.

[Jack Knave]

And would a vote in the upcoming referendum on leaving the EU be legal and binding? Probably not.

Of course it would be legal and binding because it has been passed through parliament.

[Jack Knave]

it might or might not, that would depend on what happens then.

Like what?

[Jack Knave]

That's true - the only authority that can dissolve the union would be the UK government. But just as in the referendum a couple of years ago I cannot see the UK government failing to move to ratify a clear vote in Scotland to leave the UK.

Westminster can be bastards.

[ProfessorDavey]

Of course it would be legal and binding because it has been passed through parliament.

A parliamentary decision to hold a referendum does not mean that the result is binding. Parliament can decide to hold an advisory referendum - in other words it allows them to gauge the view of the public but without being bound to accept that view and act according to its outcome.

Currently I am not sure what the nature of the referendum that may be held in the summer will be - indeed I don't know whether it has actually gone through parliament yet.

CORRECTION - the European Union Referendum Act 2015 received royal ascent in December, but I think this only allows the referendum to be held, I am not sure it binds the government to its outcome.

[Jack Knave]

I don't know. You tell me.

You don't know!!! You made a statement that implied you did. Now you're admitting you talked out your arse.

[Nearly Sane]

Like what?

Covered in other posts. It would be difficult to actually come up with a referendum that isn't legal. I am suspicious of whether any referendum is actually binding because of the difficulties of enforcing it.
I agree with Prof D that a Westminster govt would in all likelihood go along with any referendum. And as to your point about Westminster being bastards, surely given your opinion that would mean they go along with a vote to stay in

[Jack Knave]

So you admit it's all going to go pear shaped if we leave the EU.

I'm talking about the EU.

[Nearly Sane]

A parliamentary decision to hold a referendum does not mean that the result is binding. Parliament can decide to hold an advisory referendum - in other words it allows them to gauge the view of the public but without being bound to accept that view and act according to its outcome.

Currently I am not sure what the nature of the referendum that may be held in the summer will be - indeed I don't know whether it has actually gone through parliament yet.

CORRECTION - the European Union Referendum Act 2015 received royal ascent in December, but I think this only allows the referendum to be held, I am not sure it binds the government to its outcome.

I don't think it does, it isn't an enforceable statement even if it was imo, and it can't bind future govts

[ProfessorDavey]

I don't think it does, it isn't an enforceable statement even if it was imo, and it can't bind future govts

I agree - I don't believe it does. Indeed a glance around suggest no referendums in the UK are binding as parliament is sovereign.

[Jack Knave]

We haven't even approached that. Indeed in part we are agreeing with it. It's the mechanics before we even get there that are a nightmare. We haven't even got to the actual settlements on any side.

I'm just pointing out that many think they can just take over where the UK left off but they can't, it would be a brand new deal by the present rules.

[Jack Knave]

A parliamentary decision to hold a referendum does not mean that the result is binding. Parliament can decide to hold an advisory referendum - in other words it allows them to gauge the view of the public but without being bound to accept that view and act according to its outcome.

Currently I am not sure what the nature of the referendum that may be held in the summer will be - indeed I don't know whether it has actually gone through parliament yet.

CORRECTION - the European Union Referendum Act 2015 received royal ascent in December, but I think this only allows the referendum to be held, I am not sure it binds the government to its outcome.

Everyone, MPs, commentators etc., are talking as though it is binding. I think if it wasn't Andrew Neil would have made this clear, and he's gospel.