The result of the EU referendum:

[ProfessorDavey]

If your last point is true then there will be an even bigger incentive to become independent, which will make Cameron look a bit of a joke for campaigning to hold the Union together in the referendum but then giving Scotland all the fundamental powers to allow them to be independent - unless the government hasn't quite done that(?).

The stuff on changes to income tax are obviously true.

Whether or not the changes make independence more or less likely is a matter of opinion. There was an agreement that more powers should be transferred to Scotland and this is what has happened. You can argue that this is merely a step toward independence. However you can argue similarly that this gives sufficient autonomy within the UK to satisfy voters and make them less likely to want independence. You can also argue that having tax raising as well as spending powers focuses the minds of voters on what independence would really be like causing pause for thought, rather than the 'everything will be rosy, magic money tree' version of economics previously espoused by the SNP.

Don't forget that Scotland could have been independent this year - and according to the SNP awash with money from historically high oil prices ... which are currently historically low in real terms.

[jakswan]

The stuff on changes to income tax are obviously true.

Whether or not the changes make independence more or less likely is a matter of opinion. There was an agreement that more powers should be transferred to Scotland and this is what has happened. You can argue that this is merely a step toward independence. However you can argue similarly that this gives sufficient autonomy within the UK to satisfy voters and make them less likely to want independence. You can also argue that having tax raising as well as spending powers focuses the minds of voters on what independence would really be like causing pause for thought, rather than the 'everything will be rosy, magic money tree' version of economics previously espoused by the SNP.

Don't forget that Scotland could have been independent this year - and according to the SNP awash with money from historically high oil prices ... which are currently historically low in real terms.

I think it all depends on the opposition to the SNP, Labour by calling for an increasing tax should have highlighted to many that whilst the SNP are able to spin the anti-austerity line, in reality they are implementing Tory austerity.

We will have to see how it plays out with increased power the SNP should be able to blame Westminster less and be held to account more.

 

[wigginhall]

I would think that exit from the EU will lead to Scottish independence, unless the SNP get cold feet.   I'm surprised that the Remain campaign don't emphasize this, as the break-up of the UK is quite a strong counter-argument to exit.

[ProfessorDavey]

I would think that exit from the EU will lead to Scottish independence, unless the SNP get cold feet.   I'm surprised that the Remain campaign don't emphasize this, as the break-up of the UK is quite a strong counter-argument to exit.

Yes I agree - we either remain as the UK in the EU or we end up breaking up the UK with part (rUK) outside the EU and Scotland independent and within the EU.

[jakswan]

I would think that exit from the EU will lead to Scottish independence, unless the SNP get cold feet.   I'm surprised that the Remain campaign don't emphasize this, as the break-up of the UK is quite a strong counter-argument to exit.

Risky a lot of  people in rUK are sick of Sturgeon & Co and would vote out just to get rid. Also if your Scottish and felt passionately about Scotland being independent it might be worth voting for Brexit.

[ProfessorDavey]

Risky a lot of  people in rUK are sick of Sturgeon & Co and would vote out just to get rid. Also if your Scottish and felt passionately about Scotland being independent it might be worth voting for Brexit.

That's possibly true ...

But ...

I suspect many of the people who are anti the EU are also profoundly pro-the UK. Where to go for these people. Get out of the EU and end up breaking up their beloved UK, or maintain the UK, but have to stay in their hated EU.

Fortunately I'm not a petty nationalist.

[L.A.]

Risky a lot of  people in rUK are sick of Sturgeon & Co and would vote out just to get rid. Also if your Scottish and felt passionately about Scotland being independent it might be worth voting for Brexit.

Surely there would be a break-down of the voting figures area by area, and if that showed Scotland voting for Bexit, Ms Sturgeon would be totally up the creek.

[Gordon]

Surely there would be a break-down of the voting figures area by area, and if that showed Scotland voting for Bexit, Ms Sturgeon would be totally up the creek.

It would, but it seems unlikely.

Scots who are pro-independence are likely to vote to 'stay in' in the hope that in the event of a overall Brexit vote in UK terms will show that there is a very different view in Scotland.

[L.A.]

It would, but it seems unlikely.

Scots who are pro-independence are likely to vote to 'stay in' in the hope that in the event of a overall Brexit vote in UK terms will show that there is a very different view in Scotland.

Hi Gordon,

I would have thought so, but if any Scots had any ideas of helping the Bexit camp (to get another independence referendum), it would likely back-fire.

But much to my own amazement, I find myself agreeing with the nationalists on this one. If Britain (as a whole) votes for OUT and Scotland votes for IN, I think there would be a case for a fresh independence referendum.

[Hope]

It would, but it seems unlikely.

Scots who are pro-independence are likely to vote to 'stay in' in the hope that in the event of a overall Brexit vote in UK terms will show that there is a very different view in Scotland.

I find this amusing, since independence would necessarily involve an exit for the newly independent nation.  That exit might be temporary, but who knows.

[Gordon]

I find this amusing, since independence would necessarily involve an exit for the newly independent nation.  That exit might be temporary, but who knows.

Not really amusing: I'd say cynical - in 2014 we heard it said from those who wanted us to stay in the UK that an independent Scotland would be forced out of the EU, portraying that a real problem and a good reason why we Scots should vote to stay in the UK, since then we'd remain in the EU.

Now in 2016 some of those who scaremongered on this basis want to take us out of the EU.

[jakswan]

I would think that exit from the EU will lead to Scottish independence, unless the SNP get cold feet.   I'm surprised that the Remain campaign don't emphasize this, as the break-up of the UK is quite a strong counter-argument to exit.

Another thing that would help remain would be a few strong speeches from Corbyn!

[Gordon]

Hi Gordon,

I would have thought so, but if any Scots had any ideas of helping the Bexit camp (to get another independence referendum), it would likely back-fire.

But much to my own amazement, I find myself agreeing with the nationalists on this one. If Britain (as a whole) votes for OUT and Scotland votes for IN, I think there would be a case for a fresh independence referendum.

I suspect that all pro-independence Scots will vote against Brexit in the hope that the Tory-voting areas elsewhere do vote for Brexit and that they win in UK terms by a very narrow margin, and that in contrast Scotland votes convincingly against Brexit.

That would do it!

[ProfessorDavey]

Not really amusing: I'd say cynical - in 2014 we heard it said from those who wanted us to stay in the UK that an independent Scotland would be forced out of the EU, portraying that a real problem and a good reason why we Scots should vote to stay in the UK, since then we'd remain in the EU.

Now in 2016 some of those who scaremongered on this basis want to take us out of the EU.

Gordon it isn't cynical to state facts.

Had Scotland become an independent nation, leaving a member state it would not have automatically become a member of the EU. It would have needed to apply to join (not apply, not reapply as there would never have been a state called Scotland in the EU before). Whether or not that would be an easy process and what requirements the EU might have placed on an independent Scotland as conditions of membership was unclear, and remains unclear. It might be quick, fast tracked and without condition. Or it could be that the EU sees an independent Scotland in exactly the same way as other accession states and applies the same conditions, which might be joining the Eurozone.

Now don't underestimate the politics here. There are a number of other EU states with their own independence battles and they aren't going to want to help the cause of their own independence nationalists by allowing an independent state so simply join the EU on day 1 of independence.

[Gordon]

I realise that Prof D.

I think the cynicism is seen in those who now support exit from the EU portraying this a being a risk in 2014, on the basis that if we wanted to stay in the EU we should say No to independence - so we said No and are now faced with the risk of exiting the EU because of factionalism in very the Tory party who tried to scare us that we'd be out of the EU if we said Yes to independence.

[ProfessorDavey]

I realise that Prof D.

I think the cynicism is seen in those who now support exit from the EU portraying this a being a risk in 2014, on the basis that if we wanted to stay in the EU we should say No to independence - so we said No and are now faced with the risk of exiting the EU because of factionalism in very the Tory party who tried to scare us that we'd be out of the EU if we said Yes to independence.

Of course, but you can simply turn that around - namely those people who are pro-EU and also pro-Indpendence which would necessarily have meant leaving the EU, even if that was temporary.

I've always though that there are two positions which make no great sense to me - to be pro-EU (i.e. supporting the idea of being part of a larger enterprise with some necessary loss of local sovereignty) and also pro-independence. It just doesn't make sense.

Likewise to be anti-EU (i.e mustn't let anything get in the way of local sovereignty) yet fight tooth and nail to prevent a part of the UK having more sovereignty through independence.

Both seem totally inconsistent.

I am anti-independence and pro-EU - an entirely consistent position as I loath petty nationalism and want to break down and blur national borders through better cooperation and integration and I certainly don't support creating new border where ones don't currently exist.

[Jack Knave]

Not really amusing: I'd say cynical - in 2014 we heard it said from those who wanted us to stay in the UK that an independent Scotland would be forced out of the EU, portraying that a real problem and a good reason why we Scots should vote to stay in the UK, since then we'd remain in the EU.

Now in 2016 some of those who scaremongered on this basis want to take us out of the EU.

Either way you would have to leave the EU to re-join anew.

[Jack Knave]

Another thing that would help remain would be a few strong speeches from Corbyn!

Dream on!!!

On Saturday Labour are having a Stay campaign. Guess where Corbyn will be? At a CND rally.

[Jack Knave]

Of course, but you can simply turn that around - namely those people who are pro-EU and also pro-Indpendence which would necessarily have meant leaving the EU, even if that was temporary.

I've always though that there are two positions which make no great sense to me - to be pro-EU (i.e. supporting the idea of being part of a larger enterprise with some necessary loss of local sovereignty) and also pro-independence. It just doesn't make sense.

Likewise to be anti-EU (i.e mustn't let anything get in the way of local sovereignty) yet fight tooth and nail to prevent a part of the UK having more sovereignty through independence.

Both seem totally inconsistent.

I am anti-independence and pro-EU - an entirely consistent position as I loath petty nationalism and want to break down and blur national borders through better cooperation and integration and I certainly don't support creating new border where ones don't currently exist.

Do you realise how two faced that is?

[jakswan]

Dream on!!!

On Saturday Labour are having a Stay campaign. Guess where Corbyn will be? At a CND rally.

But it's the new poltics, he wouldn't hold to a position he didn't really believe in would he?

[Jack Knave]

But it's the new poltics, he wouldn't hold to a position he didn't really believe in would he?

That contradicts your previous statement. If is was suppose to be ironic you didn't indicate it as such.

[jeremyp]

I think the cynicism is seen in those who now support exit from the EU portraying this a being a risk in 2014

Who were those people?

[Nearly Sane]

Splitters!

http://news.sky.com/story/1648918/ukip-infighting-over-rival-leave-eu-campaigns

[L.A.]

Splitters!

http://news.sky.com/story/1648918/ukip-infighting-over-rival-leave-eu-campaigns

Ken Clarke had it dead right when he described UKIP as:

"'a collection of clowns . . . some of the party's supporters are racist . . . "

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ken-clarke-calls-ukip-a-collection-of-clowns-and-claims-some-of-the-partys-supporters-are-racist-and-8591478.html

[ProfessorDavey]

Do you realise how two faced that is?

Nope - in what way is my comment two faced JK. Please explain, because as far as I can see it is entirely consistent to see the value in each entity being part of something larger (so Scotland in the UK, and the UK in the EU) if (as I do) I would like the whole notion of the primacy of the nation state to be progressively downgraded so that national borders become less and less important.

And by doing that you can really get down to the concept of subsidiary - in other words that decisions are made at the most local level appropriate for that decision. The problem with the primacy of the nation state is that some decisions are taken too remotely (at the national government level rather than local/regional level to demonstrate that nation state primacy) and some decisions are taken too locally (again at the the national government level rather than at international level to demonstrate that nation state primacy).

Nothing two faced there JK. Don't forget that democracy and nation state primacy aren't the same thing. I believe in democracy I don't believe in the primacy of the nation state.