The result of the EU referendum:

[ProfessorDavey]

But we can't stop the EU citizens coming in,

That's right, and nor will you be able to if you want to trade freely having left the EU, in the same way as applies to Norway, Switzerland etc.

But as the UK isn't in Schengen so the UK border agencies should be checking passports - and those with forged passports should not only not be getting in, but should be arrested and charged.

and the number of non-EU lot coming in is well over Camerons 10,000s because he's done bugger all to try to get them down. And the new NI numbers given out to migrants indicate that it is more like that 600,000 came last year.

Which has absolutely nothing to do with the EU.

[Jack Knave]

That's right, and nor will you be able to if you want to trade freely having left the EU, in the same way as applies to Norway, Switzerland etc.

I've answered this several time. My choice would be not to be in any of the EU groups or in the single market.

But as the UK isn't in Schengen so the UK border agencies should be checking passports - and those with forged passports should not only not be getting in, but should be arrested and charged.

Should and are are two different things, and the efficiency in which they do it.

Which has absolutely nothing to do with the EU.

That was a response to how badly Cameron is doing and that once we leave the EU we would/should tighten up our borders - please note the Tories won't be in power forever so no silly short term replies to that one!!!

[ProfessorDavey]

I've answered this several time. My choice would be not to be in any of the EU groups or in the single market.
Should and are are two different things, and the efficiency in which they do it.

Fine, but I hope you are comfortable with about £60 billion a year being wiped off our GDP, with the associated pain in terms of job losses, cuts to public services or increases in tax that has been estimated by a range of authoritative organisations including the CBI when we are no longer able to trade freely, tariff and custom duty free with the EU.

[Nearly Sane]

Fine, but I hope you are comfortable with about £60 billion a year being wiped off our GDP, with the associated pain in terms of job losses, cuts to public services or increases in tax that has been estimated by a range of authoritative organisations including the CBI when we are no longer able to trade freely, tariff and custom duty free with the EU.

So what are the other 'authorative organisations'? Do you accept the opinion of these 'authorative institutions' generally?

[ProfessorDavey]

Should and are are two different things, and the efficiency in which they do it.

Which once again has nothing to do with the EU. Leaving the EU won't suddenly make the UK government more efficient at running its border control. Probably the reverse as additional resource will need to be diverted into customs checking, which is currently not required to be anything other than light touch for people arriving from the EU.

[ProfessorDavey]

So what are the other 'authorative organisations'?

The Bank of England, the London School of Economics and the Department of Business, Innovation and Skills as examples.

[Nearly Sane]

The Bank of England, the London School of Economics and the Department of Business, Innovation and Skills as examples.

Did you not answer the second question and edit it out for a reason?

[ProfessorDavey]

Did you not answer the second question and edit it out for a reason?

I am not talking about their 'opinion' - in other words whether we should leave the EU. I am talking about their evidence-based data on the economic effects.

[Nearly Sane]

I am not talking about their 'opinion' - in other words whether we should leave the EU. I am talking about their evidence-based data on the economic effects.

So you accept the 'evidence based data' of the CBI generally?

[ProfessorDavey]

So you accept the 'evidence based data' of the CBI generally?

I'm a scientist - I'm hard wired to accept 'evidence based data' whatever its provenance. And to use it to base an opinion on.

[jakswan]

Fine, but I hope you are comfortable with about £60 billion a year being wiped off our GDP, with the associated pain in terms of job losses, cuts to public services or increases in tax that has been estimated by a range of authoritative organisations including the CBI when we are no longer able to trade freely, tariff and custom duty free with the EU.

So if we are able to trade freely then no loss to GDP.

[jakswan]

That's right, and nor will you be able to if you want to trade freely having left the EU, in the same way as applies to Norway, Switzerland etc.

According to Wiki, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_free_trade_agreements

These are the countries with a EU free trade agreement not all of them have the same terms as Switzerland and Norway, who themselves don't share the same terms. #projectfear


 Akrotiri and Dhekelia
 Albania
 Algeria
 Andorra
 Bosnia and Herzegovina
 Chile
 Egypt
 Faroe Islands
 Bailiwick of Guernsey
 Iceland
 Isle of Man
 Israel
 Bailiwick of Jersey
 Jordan
 Lebanon
 Liechtenstein
 Republic of Macedonia
 Mexico
 Monaco
 Montenegro
 Morocco
 Norway
 Palestinian Authority
 San Marino
 Serbia
 South Africa
 South Korea
 Switzerland
 Tunisia
 Turkey

[ProfessorDavey]

According to Wiki, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_free_trade_agreements

These are the countries with a EU free trade agreement not all of them have the same terms as Switzerland and Norway, who themselves don't share the same terms. #projectfear


 Akrotiri and Dhekelia
 Albania
 Algeria
 Andorra
 Bosnia and Herzegovina
 Chile
 Egypt
 Faroe Islands
 Bailiwick of Guernsey
 Iceland
 Isle of Man
 Israel
 Bailiwick of Jersey
 Jordan
 Lebanon
 Liechtenstein
 Republic of Macedonia
 Mexico
 Monaco
 Montenegro
 Morocco
 Norway
 Palestinian Authority
 San Marino
 Serbia
 South Africa
 South Korea
 Switzerland
 Tunisia
 Turkey

Thanks for providing this as I was also yogin to provide a similar list as it clearly illustrates my point. Look at the list and a few things jump out.

First - there are only 30 countries (including territories) on the list. There are 206 sovereign states on the planet, so that means that there are 148 that aren't members of the EU and don't have a free trade agreement in place.

Secondly, look carefully and you will see that the countries fit into a number of categories and that is by policy and design, namely:

1. Non EU members who are EEA members - e.g. Norway, Switzerland, Iceland
2. Dependent or linked territories to member states - e.g. Isle of Man, Jersey etc
3. States that want to join the EU and are already in the accession process or working toward that - e.g. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Turkey
4. Countries with developing economies where reduced tariffs are provided to encourage that economic development e.g. Mexico, Chile, South Africa.
5. Countries where free trade is used as the carrot equivalent of the sanctions 'stick' to support democratisation and improved human rights e.g. Morocco, Lebanon, Israel etc.

Pretty well every one of them fits into one of those groups, but the problem for the UK is it wouldn't only be considered under category 1, i.e. being an EEA member, which comes with it the regular EU obligations on free movement of goods, services and labour.

What you will also note is that unless a country is part of the EU or EEA (or a dependent territory of one of those) or wanting to be and is considered to be a developed democratic economy (so 4 or 5 don't apply) there is no free trade deal.

So where are our non EU fellow G7 members - they aren't there.
So where are our non EU fellow G8 members - they aren't there.
So where are our non EU fellow G8 members - they aren't there.

Where are:
Australia
New Zealand
Canada
China
USA
Russia
Japan
India
Brazil

Not there.

The point is that the EU uses free trade deals in a manner that supports a broader policy and unless the UK chooses to join the EEA then it won't be part of that approach and very unlikely to get a deal.

So you have rather shot yourself in the foot as, unless the UK choses to join the EEA, there are no countries on that list which are really equivalent to the UK and for good reason.

[ProfessorDavey]

So if we are able to trade freely then no loss to GDP.

Of course, but that would only happen under EEA rules, which are effectively identical to EU rules.

You cannot have your cake and eat it - you cannot have equivalent free trade (and maintenance of the GDP benefit) to the situation now without signing up toe the EU/EEA rules on free movement of goods, services and labour. And if you are primarily concerned about sovereignty, surely being required to sign up to rules that you have no control over whatsoever (because you aren't in the EU) is a greater loss of sovereignty that having to sign up to rules that the UK does have a say over, as a member state of the EU.

[jakswan]

So you have rather shot yourself in the foot as, unless the UK choses to join the EEA, there are no countries on that list which are really equivalent to the UK and for good reason.

There are no countries in the world like the UK if start making up categories of countries in such a way, besides I think you missed South Korea.

Why wouldn't the EU want a free trade deal?

[jakswan]

Of course, but that would only happen under EEA rules, which are effectively identical to EU rules.

So you assert, more #projectfear. So lets explore your position a little more, lets say as the debate progresses the EU signals they would welcome a free trade deal (lets be honest they'd be mad not to). Will you change your mind?

[ProfessorDavey]

There are no countries in the world like the UK if start making up categories of countries in such a way, besides I think you missed South Korea.

South Korea is really part of category 5, supported through free trade agreements to ensure and develop democracy, human rights etc in a region, which I'm sure you will recognise is hardly a benchmark for stability.

So directly from the EU on this deal:

'Trade relations are part of the EU's overall political and economic relations with South Korea' which links to:

'The EU-South Korea Framework Agreement (FA)   (2010) addresses a wide range of international concerns, including non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, human rights, cooperation in the fight against terrorism, climate change, energy security and development assistance.'

Read all about it here:

http://eeas.europa.eu/korea_south/docs/framework_agreement_final_en.pdf

Why wouldn't the EU want a free trade deal?

I'm sure they will, but it will happen largely on the EU's terms, which is obvious as the EU (even without the UK) economic block will be 6 times the size of the UKs. And there will be an expectation that the relationship will be comparable to those of Norway, Iceland or Switzerland if free trade is to be provided.

And don't forget that a free trade agreement doesn't necessarily mean 'no tariff' or 'no customs duty' as is the case within the EU. Nope in most of the cases you listed the free trade agreement merely reduces the levels of tariffs, and often not is all cases.

[Jack Knave]

Fine, but I hope you are comfortable with about £60 billion a year being wiped off our GDP, with the associated pain in terms of job losses, cuts to public services or increases in tax that has been estimated by a range of authoritative organisations including the CBI when we are no longer able to trade freely, tariff and custom duty free with the EU.

The CBI are bias and are not worth the gob shite they spout. These are the people who said that if we didn't join the Euro we would decline and become a backwater - Duh!!!!

In fact most of those urging us to vote Stay in the referendum were the ones saying similar things to the CBI about joining the Euro.

You have proof that the things you say above will transpire? Things I have addressed.

[Jack Knave]

Which once again has nothing to do with the EU. Leaving the EU won't suddenly make the UK government more efficient at running its border control. Probably the reverse as additional resource will need to be diverted into customs checking, which is currently not required to be anything other than light touch for people arriving from the EU.

"Suddenly"?

Some things take a little longer than that. 

[Jack Knave]

I'm a scientist - I'm hard wired to accept 'evidence based data' whatever its provenance. And to use it to base an opinion on.

In economics? That's a joke!

Ask 10 economists a question on the economy and you will get 15 different answers!!!

If they are so good why is the world economy, especially the Wests, in such a bad state?

[Jack Knave]

Thanks for providing this as I was also yogin to provide a similar list as it clearly illustrates my point. Look at the list and a few things jump out.

First - there are only 30 countries (including territories) on the list. There are 206 sovereign states on the planet, so that means that there are 148 that aren't members of the EU and don't have a free trade agreement in place.

Secondly, look carefully and you will see that the countries fit into a number of categories and that is by policy and design, namely:

1. Non EU members who are EEA members - e.g. Norway, Switzerland, Iceland
2. Dependent or linked territories to member states - e.g. Isle of Man, Jersey etc
3. States that want to join the EU and are already in the accession process or working toward that - e.g. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Turkey
4. Countries with developing economies where reduced tariffs are provided to encourage that economic development e.g. Mexico, Chile, South Africa.
5. Countries where free trade is used as the carrot equivalent of the sanctions 'stick' to support democratisation and improved human rights e.g. Morocco, Lebanon, Israel etc.

Pretty well every one of them fits into one of those groups, but the problem for the UK is it wouldn't only be considered under category 1, i.e. being an EEA member, which comes with it the regular EU obligations on free movement of goods, services and labour.

What you will also note is that unless a country is part of the EU or EEA (or a dependent territory of one of those) or wanting to be and is considered to be a developed democratic economy (so 4 or 5 don't apply) there is no free trade deal.

So where are our non EU fellow G7 members - they aren't there.
So where are our non EU fellow G8 members - they aren't there.
So where are our non EU fellow G8 members - they aren't there.

Where are:
Australia
New Zealand
Canada
China
USA
Russia
Japan
India
Brazil

Not there.

The point is that the EU uses free trade deals in a manner that supports a broader policy and unless the UK chooses to join the EEA then it won't be part of that approach and very unlikely to get a deal.

So you have rather shot yourself in the foot as, unless the UK choses to join the EEA, there are no countries on that list which are really equivalent to the UK and for good reason.

So what is TTIP? He asks rhetorically. Who is this trade deal with?

Also you don't need a trade deal to trade.

[Hope]

The CBI are bias and are not worth the gob shite they spout.

The problem with the CBI is that they tend to represent the same types of organisation as the British Chamber of Commerce.  The nature of those types of  organisation is that their attitude is necessarily varied - depending on their size, type of product, the nature of their markets, etc. 

These are the people who said that if we didn't join the Euro we would decline and become a backwater - Duh!!!!

Do you have any evidence that they were the only people to argue for our joining - after all, I seem to remember that most of the political parties agreed on the issue.

In fact most of those urging us to vote Stay in the referendum were the ones saying similar things to the CBI about joining the Euro.

IIRC, parts of the CBI argued against joining the Euro and parts argued for it.

[Jack Knave]

South Korea is really part of category 4, supported through free trade agreements to ensure and develop democracy, human rights etc in a region, which I'm sure you will recognise is hardly a benchmark for stability.

The EU spouting democracy? Don't make me laugh. The EU is totally undemocratic at its core.

Human rights? Don't make me laugh. Look at how Greece was treated. Look at the migrant crisis and how they are now pawns in a game of swop, played with the rules of chess. And look how Turkey (human rights galore there) is going to be fast tracked into the EU (if a deal is struck) all because it has the EU over a barrel. If they had any principles, other than lining their own pockets, they would say no to Turkey.

[Jack Knave]

The problem with the CBI is that they tend to represent the same types of organisation as the British Chamber of Commerce.  The nature of those types of  organisation is that their attitude is necessarily varied - depending on their size, type of product, the nature of their markets, etc. 
Do you have any evidence that they were the only people to argue for our joining - after all, I seem to remember that most of the political parties agreed on the issue.
IIRC, parts of the CBI argued against joining the Euro and parts argued for it.

My last bit said it all, that those saying we will wither if we leave the EU are the same lot who said that if we didn't join the Euro we'd be done for. There may have been a few within camps like that that said otherwise but generally this is true.

[jakswan]

South Korea is really part of category 4, supported through free trade agreements to ensure and develop democracy, human rights etc in a region, which I'm sure you will recognise is hardly a benchmark for stability.

4. Countries with developing economies

Erm do you want to check that.

I'm sure they will, but it will happen largely on the EU's terms, which is obvious as the EU (even without the UK) economic block will be 6 times the size of the UKs. And there will be an expectation that the relationship will be comparable to those of Norway, Iceland or Switzerland if free trade is to be provided.

The French farmers and German car makers will not want to see one of their biggest markets disappear. The terms will be free trade, pretty much what we have now with no political union, that will good for the Uk and good for the EU, low risk all round.