The result of the EU referendum:

[jakswan]

Indeed they do, but of course in negotiations between the EU and the UK one will have much, much more negotiating power as one economy is about 6 time the size of the other. And that block with the upper hand is the EU.

Upper hand doesn't mean we can't stipulate some terms.

Also, don't forget that for an agreement to be reached all 27 remaining EU member states must agree. So if there is anything that any individual member state doesn't like, then no deal. Again this places the bargaining power very much with the EU as there will be no way they will ratify an agreement that is seen to be a compromise from the EU's perspective.

So which country do you think would block a deal?

And don't forget that failure to get a deal is far less significant for any individual EU member state than it is for the UK, because of the balance of trade between individual member states and the UK.

Maybe but that doesn't mean that a deal is not in the EU's best interests.

[ProfessorDavey]

Upper hand doesn't mean we can't stipulate some terms.

Perhaps, but if those terms are ones that just one of the 27 remaining EU member states doesn't like then there will be no agreement.

So which country do you think would block a deal?

Most likely one of the recently joined Eastern European countries if the UK tries to restrict free movement of Labour from them. This is what has held up the Canada deal.

Maybe but that doesn't mean that a deal is not in the EU's best interests.

It may be important to the EU, but it is critical to the UK. While not ideal the EU could soldier on without a free trade deal with the UK. The UK would be completely screwed without a free trade deal with the EU.

[jakswan]

Perhaps, but if those terms are ones that just one of the 27 remaining EU member states doesn't like then there will be no agreement.

Perhaps, perhaps they won't to risk a lucrative export market.

Most likely one of the recently joined Eastern European countries if the UK tries to restrict free movement of Labour from them. This is what has held up the Canada deal.

Perhaps and likely, come on project fear can do better that that, millions of jobs, financial meltdown, are you forgetting your play book?

It may be important to the EU, but it is critical to the UK. While not ideal the EU could soldier on without a free trade deal with the UK. The UK would be completely screwed without a free trade deal with the EU.

So it will "solider on" for what reason, why wouldn't it just sign a deal that is in both parties interests.

[L.A.]

It is undoubtedly true that certain people would benefit from grexit, basically people who would prefer a less competitive market.

For example, a few years ago there was a huge difference between car prices in UK and continental countries. The same model was significantly more expensive here - and the motor trade loved it! Then several companies cottoned-on and started importing UK spec cars from EU countries offering a significant discount, and the UK motor trade had a tantrum and said they wouldn't honour manufactures warranty - but then it was pointed out to them that this was against EU law and they had to comply.

People like that would just love to be free of those 'interfering' Europeans.

[jeremyp]

It is undoubtedly true that certain people would benefit from grexit, basically people who would prefer a less competitive market.

For example, a few years ago there was a huge difference between car prices in UK and continental countries. The same model was significantly more expensive here - and the motor trade loved it! Then several companies cottoned-on and started importing UK spec cars from EU countries offering a significant discount, and the UK motor trade had a tantrum and said they wouldn't honour manufactures warranty - but then it was pointed out to them that this was against EU law and they had to comply.

People like that would just love to be free of those 'interfering' Europeans.

Plus, of course, there's that inconvenient Human Rights law. Human rights are so unBritish.

Then there's the Working Time Directive, it's outrageous that we can't treat our workers like slaves.

[jeremyp]

why wouldn't it just sign a deal that is in both parties interests.

If we leave the EU, we will sign a trade deal. Most likely, it will be very similar to what we have now except that we will have no say EU policy. We will still have to let EU citizens in to work here and we will still have to deal with EU red tape (as well as our own).

Furthermore, the EU will be weaker as a result of one of its richest members leaving and that means that exports to the EU will be weaker.

[Gonnagle]

Dear Jeremyp,

If we leave the EU, we will sign a trade deal. Most likely, it will be very similar to what we have now except that we will have no say EU policy. We will still have to let EU citizens in to work here and we will still have to deal with EU red tape (as well as our own).

Furthermore, the EU will be weaker as a result of one of its richest members leaving and that means that exports to the EU will be weaker.

About sums it up for me, I have seen no convincing argument on here, the media that tells me we should leave, the EU should be shaken up but we can't do that standing on the byline.

Gonnagle.

[L.A.]

Plus, of course, there's that inconvenient Human Rights law. Human rights are so unBritish.

Then there's the Working Time Directive, it's outrageous that we can't treat our workers like slaves.

An awful lot of the much maligned EU laws are just creating a fair system for all - but some people benefit from an unfair system.

[SusanDoris]

Heard locally: older people want to be out; why, because they want 'Britain to be great again'.
So many of the pro-exiters do not seem to think beyond some vague, rather fluffy, personal , single idea, and are not at all thinking of the country and Europe as a whole, of history, of safety, the future, oh, and thousands of other points. I do so hope the vote is a strong one for remaining in.

[Shaker]

Heard locally: older people want to be out; why, because they want 'Britain to be great again'.
So many of the pro-exiters do not seem to think beyond some vague, rather fluffy, personal , single idea, and are not at all thinking of the country and Europe as a whole, of history, of safety, the future, oh, and thousands of other points. I do so hope the vote is a strong one for remaining in.

See #500 (page 21).

[jakswan]

If we leave the EU, we will sign a trade deal. Most likely, it will be very similar to what we have now except that we will have no say EU policy. We will still have to let EU citizens in to work here and we will still have to deal with EU red tape (as well as our own).

Furthermore, the EU will be weaker as a result of one of its richest members leaving and that means that exports to the EU will be weaker.

The 'most likely' is pure opinion on your part, others are available.

[jakswan]

Plus, of course, there's that inconvenient Human Rights law. Human rights are so unBritish.

Then there's the Working Time Directive, it's outrageous that we can't treat our workers like slaves.

Hitting that man of straw make you feel good?

[jakswan]

Heard locally: older people want to be out; why, because they want 'Britain to be great again'.
So many of the pro-exiters do not seem to think beyond some vague, rather fluffy, personal , single idea, and are not at all thinking of the country and Europe as a whole, of history, of safety, the future, oh, and thousands of other points. I do so hope the vote is a strong one for remaining in.

Heard locally:  younger people want to be in; why, because they want 'not another war in Europe'.
So many of the pro-remainerss do not seem to think beyond some vague, rather fluffy, personal , single idea, and are not at all thinking of the country of our history, of our safety, the future...

Ahh rhetoric, take the words spin them another way and easily refute the person who had some delusion that they actually made a point.

[jeremyp]

Hitting that man of straw make you feel good?

If we aren't leaving to get rid of EU red tape and certain laws we don't like, why are we leaving?

You seem quite vague on the reasons.

[ProfessorDavey]

An awful lot of the much maligned EU laws are just creating a fair system for all - but some people benefit from an unfair system.

Indeed - many of the laws from the EU are good and sensible, and were the UK not in the EU it would simply enact something pretty well identical.

So there is all this talk of 'strangling' red tape from the EU, but I can't see it and a challenge to the EU-frothers:

Name me 10 regulations from the EU that you think would not simply be re-enacted in a similar form by the UK government if we left the EU.

And just to be clear I can think of loads of perfectly home-grown red tape (i.e. regulations we have to comply with in the UK that are simply unthinkable in other EU countries) which are hugely bureaucratic and costly.

And that is from my experience of public and private section, working in a University, as a school governor, owning a small business I started from scratch and being a Director of another SME.

Just one example - whenever we 'employ' someone we are required, due to Home Office regulations to prove they are able to work in the UK. This involves the 'employee' bringing in their passport and one of our current employees personally checking the passport, taking a copy, and filling out a rather lengthy form.

What's wrong with that you may ask. Well that applies to everyone whether or not they employment is paid, and has to be done every time. So in a University we have loads of people who might come to give a 1 hour lecture to our students, that is classed as employment and we have to go through that process. And if they come the following year to give the same 1 hour lecture we have to do it again, and again, and again. And that is the case if the person giving that one hour lecture is a UK citizen, born in the UK, never having lived anywhere but the UK. Each time we have to spend perhaps 30 minutes doing paperwork for this person giving a one hour lecture. It is bonkers, but perfectly home grown. Talk to my colleagues in France or Germany or Italy and they cannot believe the bureaucracy required in the UK for someone to give a one hour lecture or seminar.

And that's just one example - there are many, many more.

[jakswan]

If we aren't leaving to get rid of EU red tape and certain laws we don't like, why are we leaving?

You seem quite vague on the reasons.

I've given you the reasons, less of a democratic deficit, we'll save money, allows us to control better control migration, allows us to negotiate own trade deals, allows us to better control profit divergence tactics from the likes of Google, higher wages for UK workers, etc.

Most of these have been discussed in this thread you haven't really engaged in any detail but constantly attacked straw men. I do wonder if you actually made up your mind on this issue on the basis of arguments or on the basis you didn't like the people making the arguments.


 

[jakswan]

I can't see it and a challenge to the EU-frothers:

So those that disagree with you are "frothers" whilst those that agree are sweet nice people?

[jeremyp]

I've given you the reasons, less of a democratic deficit,

This is a mirage.

we'll save money,

This is false. The impact on our economy and the economy of our largest trading partner would negate any savings.

Another point, yes we are a net contributor to the EU but that is because our country is rich. Other countries are poor and it is to our advantage that they be rich too. I could save money by not paying taxes but I recognise that spending money so that everybody can afford healthcare, education, transport, law enforcement and soon makes the country a nicer place for me to live in.

Similarly helping poor countries in the EU makes the World a nicer place for the UK to exist in.

allows us to control better control migration,

This is false. We already have border controls even with other EU countries, not being part of the Schengen agreement. Of course, we have to allow free movement of labour within the EU at the moment, but nobody has explained to me why that is bad.

allows us to negotiate own trade deals,

Because somehow, little England with its GDP of 2.7 trillion dollars will be able to negotiate better deals than the EU with its GDP of 18 trillion dollars. Pull the other one, it's got bells on it.

allows us to better control profit divergence tactics from the likes of Google

We have a better chance of doing that in the EU. Unless we put up trade barriers to the EU, we won't be able to stop Google's tactics by ourselves.

, higher wages for UK workers, etc.

I doubt if that will be true, not with the economic disaster of Brexit.

Most of these have been discussed in this thread you haven't really engaged in any detail but constantly attacked straw men.

Saying I am using fallacies does not mean I am.

I do wonder if you actually made up your mind on this issue on the basis of arguments or on the basis you didn't like the people making the arguments.

I made up my mind based on the likely economic and foreign policy disaster that will be Brexit.

The World economy is not a zero sum game. If we leave the EU, it will be plunged into another economic crisis and that will be bad for us as it will be bad for the countries still in it.

[jakswan]

This is a mirage.

No its an opinion, yours differs.

This is false. The impact on our economy and the economy of our largest trading partner would negate any savings.

We send £250 million a week to EU, is a fact, you can get that down to £120million a week net.

Another point, yes we are a net contributor to the EU but that is because our country is rich. Other countries are poor and it is to our advantage that they be rich too. I could save money by not paying taxes but I recognise that spending money so that everybody can afford healthcare, education, transport, law enforcement and soon makes the country a nicer place for me to live in.

Actually you'd be breaking the law if you didn't pay taxes. I agree its good to help others in society but I view the society I live to extend to the UK not the EU, you have a different view.

Similarly helping poor countries in the EU makes the World a nicer place for the UK to exist in.

Wouldn't the world be a nicer place if you helped the poorest countries in the World not just the EU?

This is false. We already have border controls even with other EU countries, not being part of the Schengen agreement. Of course, we have to allow free movement of labour within the EU at the moment, but nobody has explained to me why that is bad.

Its no false. You would agree we have a housing crisis? You would agree that adding 300,000 to our population isn't gong to help this situation?

Because somehow, little England with its GDP of 2.7 trillion dollars will be able to negotiate better deals than the EU with its GDP of 18 trillion dollars. Pull the other one, it's got bells on it.

Its pretty simple trade deals need to agreement of all countries in the EU, our trade deals would need the agreement of one. Our economy is not the same as every country in the EU so more bespoke deals could be done.

We have a better chance of doing that in the EU. Unless we put up trade barriers to the EU, we won't be able to stop Google's tactics by ourselves.

No about trade barriers but laws.

I doubt if that will be true, not with the economic disaster of Brexit.

#projectfear

Saying I am using fallacies does not mean I am.

When you attack an argument I haven't made or position I do not hold then you are attacking a strawman. Saying you don't doesn't mean you are not, not doing in future would.

 
I made up my mind based on the likely economic and foreign policy disaster that will be Brexit.

Good, likewise, might help convince others if you stopped the #projectfear with words like "disaster".

The World economy is not a zero sum game. If we leave the EU, it will be plunged into another economic crisis and that will be bad for us as it will be bad for the countries still in it.

Wow really that is a new argument I've not heard before, will have a think about it, what is your evidence for this new EU economic crisis?

[jeremyp]

No its an opinion, yours differs.

We send £250 million a week to EU, is a fact, you can get that down to £120million a week net.

"It's the economy, stupid"

What we get back is more than just the direct grants from the EU, it is in our interest that all of the economies of the EU are healthy.

Actually you'd be breaking the law if you didn't pay taxes. I agree its good to help others in society

It was an illustration. You don't think it is OK for Google to use legal means to reduce their UK tax bill and yet you advocate exactly the same sort of thing with respect to the UK and the EU.

but I view the society I live to extend to the UK not the EU.

Bingo. In reply #619 I denied that Brexiters are not isolationists and here you are being isolationist.

Wouldn't the world be a nicer place if you helped the poorest countries in the World not just the EU?

Yes it would and we don't help them nearly enough. Since exiting the EU would be calamatous for the economy, I fail to see how Brexit will help them more.

Its no false. You would agree we have a housing crisis? You would agree that adding 300,000 to our population isn't gong to help this situation?

How is leaving the EU going to stop 300,000 migrants coming here? Wouldn't it be better to fix the housing crisis than stop the free movement of labour?

Its pretty simple trade deals need to agreement of all countries in the EU, our trade deals would need the agreement of one. Our economy is not the same as every country in the EU so more bespoke deals could be done.

Good trade deals are about removing barriers to trade. Why would we need more or fewer barriers than the Republic of Ireland?

No about trade barriers but laws.

What is the point of us making a law to stop Google from avoiding tax in the UK if they can just base themselves in Ireland? We need a coordinated approach to tax laws and we won't get that if we are outside of the EU.

#projectfear

You should be afraid of the possible consequences too.

When you attack an argument I haven't made or position I do not hold then you are attacking a strawman.

But I'm not doing that. I am attacking your arguments and the arguments of other Brexiters.

Good, likewise, might help convince others if you stopped the #projectfear with words like "disaster".

I call it like I see it.

Wow really that is a new argument I've not heard before, will have a think about it, what is your evidence for this new EU economic crisis?

We have one of the top three economies in the EU and are therefore one of the biggest contributors. If a country only the size of Greece can cause the chaos it did in the EU, the waves that we would cause by leaving will be significantly greater. I could even see it leading to the break up of the EU.

[jakswan]

"It's the economy, stupid"

What we get back is more than just the direct grants from the EU, it is in our interest that all of the economies of the EU are healthy.

So you assert.

It was an illustration. You don't think it is OK for Google to use legal means to reduce their UK tax bill and yet you advocate exactly the same sort of thing with respect to the UK and the EU.

Not quite from Google's POV its ok from the British public's POV it isn't, I'm looking at it from British public's POV.

Bingo. In reply #619 I denied that Brexiters are not isolationists and here you are being isolationist.

You need to stop before positing this rubbish, an isolationist would advocate we stay out of foreign affairs, a nationalist would be more accurate.

Yes it would and we don't help them nearly enough. Since exiting the EU would be calamatous for the economy, I fail to see how Brexit will help them more.

So we are not arguing for Brexit and then using the £250 million a week to help the poorest nations in the world.

How is leaving the EU going to stop 300,000 migrants coming here? Wouldn't it be better to fix the housing crisis than stop the free movement of labour?

Freedom of movement of Labour, do you need a diagram? Yes the infrastructure of the entire country needs to be controlled in line with immigration. I think immigration is greatly beneficial to a country, massive uncontrolled immigration is dangerous. Not least because mainstream political parties have a tendency to ignore views for fear of being called names by  the likes of you and Prof, which drives support for the hard right, UKIP etc.

Good trade deals are about removing barriers to trade. Why would we need more or fewer barriers than the Republic of Ireland?

Its not about the number but the content, Ireland might not have a struggling steel industry and not wish to impose tariffs on Chinese steel at the same level as the UK who does have a struggling steel industry.

What is the point of us making a law to stop Google from avoiding tax in the UK if they can just base themselves in Ireland? We need a coordinated approach to tax laws and we won't get that if we are outside of the EU.

They wouldn't be able to invoice us from Ireland for translations taking place in the UK if we left the EU and passed a law to that effect.

You should be afraid of the possible consequences too.

Concerned but I'm not buying your disaster rhetoric thanks.

 
But I'm not doing that. I am attacking your arguments and the arguments of other Brexiters.

You need to attack my arguments, attacking the argument of 'others' is the definition of a straw-man.

Example
I spoke to a bloke whose in the remain campaign and he hates brown people but likes whites from Poland he thinks staying in will keep brown people out, remain people are racist.

Can you see how that would be unfair?

I call it like I see it.

Fine.

We have one of the top three economies in the EU and are therefore one of the biggest contributors. If a country only the size of Greece can cause the chaos it did in the EU, the waves that we would cause by leaving will be significantly greater. I could even see it leading to the break up of the EU.

The issue with Greece wasn't to do with its contributions, do you want another go, tip: think Euro!

[SusanDoris]

Well said, JeremyP.

[ProfessorDavey]

I've given you the reasons, less of a democratic deficit,

I think if we are worried about democratic deficit we need to start right here at home:

2015 General Election
Tories supported by 24% of the eligible electorate
Gain 36.9% of the votes cast
Win over 50% of the seats and
Have 100% of the power post election

And also
UKIP - 12.6% of the vote, just 1 seat (i.e. 0.15% of the seats)
Greens -  3.8% of the vote, just 1 seat
Yet
SNP - 4.7% of the vote and 56 seats
DUP - 0.6% of the vote and 8 seats

Compare that with the 2014 EU election
UKIP - 26% of the vote, gained 33% of the seats
Greens - 6% of the vote, 4% of the seats
SNP - 2.4% of the vote, 2.6% of the seats

So where exactly is the democratic deficit.

And that's before we factor in the fact that there is no democratic process for selecting members of the UK second chamber.

we'll save money,

No we won't, the net effect will be a substantial reduction in GDP, when the net direct contributions and negative effects on the economy of leaving the EU are taken into account.

allows us to control better control migration

We already can - except for EU citizens, but if we try to restrict free movement from the EU we will be fit with detrimental trade arrangements and that will further affect our economy.

allows us to negotiate own trade deals

Why is that an advantage - we already have great trade deals and negotiating as the EU means we get better deals and also are more likely to be a priority for deals for other countries, which is critical as deals take years and years to negotiate.

allows us to better control profit divergence tactics from the likes of Google,

Rubbish - the best way to ensure multinationals pay their way is through concerted action from lots of countries - and that is much easier within the EU.

higher wages for UK workers, etc.

pure speculation, but unlikely given the overall negative effect on the economy. And how high will the wages be for those workers laid off at those companies who are only in the UK, because it is within the EU and will be making plans for relocation to another EU country on 24th June if there is vote to leave.

[jakswan]

I think if we are worried about democratic deficit we need to start right here at home:

2015 General Election
Tories supported by 24% of the eligible electorate
Gain 36.9% of the votes cast
Win over 50% of the seats and
Have 100% of the power post election

And also
UKIP - 12.6% of the vote, just 1 seat (i.e. 0.15% of the seats)
Greens -  3.8% of the vote, just 1 seat
Yet
SNP - 4.7% of the vote and 56 seats
DUP - 0.6% of the vote and 8 seats

Compare that with the 2014 EU election
UKIP - 26% of the vote, gained 33% of the seats
Greens - 6% of the vote, 4% of the seats
SNP - 2.4% of the vote, 2.6% of the seats

So where exactly is the democratic deficit.

And that's before we factor in the fact that there is no democratic process for selecting members of the UK second chamber.

No we won't, the net effect will be a substantial reduction in GDP, when the net direct contributions and negative effects on the economy of leaving the EU are taken into account.
We already can - except for EU citizens, but if we try to restrict free movement from the EU we will be fit with detrimental trade arrangements and that will further affect our economy.
Why is that an advantage - we already have great trade deals and negotiating as the EU means we get better deals and also are more likely to be a priority for deals for other countries, which is critical as deals take years and years to negotiate.
Rubbish - the best way to ensure multinationals pay their way is through concerted action from lots of countries - and that is much easier within the EU.
pure speculation, but unlikely given the overall negative effect on the economy. And how high will the wages be for those workers laid off at those companies who are only in the UK, because it is within the EU and will be making plans for relocation to another EU country on 24th June if there is vote to leave.

You and I have already debated those issues and have disagreed, lets not do the entire thing again.

[ProfessorDavey]

You and I have already debated those issues and have disagreed, lets not do the entire thing again.

In which I asked you to provide a link to research from a credible source to back up your assertions.

You have still failed to do so.

Why should anyone take your views seriously when they are about as cogent as a UKIP soundbite. If you want to be taken seriously, provide some credible evidence to back up your assertions.

Otherwise it is fantasy economic territory. Which is of course what the SNP did prior to the independence referendum, and what the 'Leavers' are doing now. Just because you want something to be true doesn't make it so. The SNP wanted oil to be endless and at sky high prices - it isn't and it crashed. The Brixters want to pretend that there will be no economic hit on the UK if we leave - it is fantasy - there will be. I am happy to debate whether that's a 'price worth paying' (I don't believe it is) but to pretend there will be no price is simply fantasy la-la land stuff.