The result of the EU referendum:

[ProfessorDavey]

Imagine it this way you are the MD of BMW and Merkel says 'yo, we think we are going to impose trade barriers to exporting to the UK' when its one your biggest markets, what do you think BMW will say?

Imagine it this way you are the MD of BMW and Johnson or Farage says 'yo, we think the UK is going to leave the EU' when its one your biggest markets, what do you think BMW will say?

There is an obvious way to ensure that we can still trade freely throughout the EU and that is to stay in the EU. Leaving is massively risky and even if we get a deal will never get a deal better than we have at present, but could very well get one considerably worse.

[jakswan]

You keep wittering on about 31% - where does this come from.

What credible organisation has suggested that by 2030 we'd be 31% richer (what does that mean) if we left the EU than if we remain.

The one from the treasury that you keep wittering on about,  as i recall it claims if we leave gdp will grow by 31%, if we stay 36%.

[ProfessorDavey]

The one from the treasury that you keep wittering on about,  as i recall it claims if we leave gdp will grow by 31%, if we stay 36%.

So you have just accepted that we will be considerably worse off if we leave than if we remain. Foot, gun, aim, shoot.

[jakswan]

Imagine it this way you are the MD of BMW and Johnson or Farage says 'yo, we think the UK is going to leave the EU' when its one your biggest markets, what do you think BMW will say?

There is an obvious way to ensure that we can still trade freely throughout the EU and that is to stay in the EU. Leaving is massively risky and even if we get a deal will never get a deal better than we have at present, but could very well get one considerably worse.

There are risks to staying, lots of them, Greece has already cost billions hearing strong rumours they will need yet another bail out soon as they're EU run economy is in free fall, Italy could go the same way but cost a lot more, Turkey joining, migrant crisis,  TTIP, etc. All in the hands of unaccountable bureaucracy.

[jakswan]

So you have just accepted that we will be considerably worse off if we leave than if we remain. Foot, gun, aim, shoot.

No I think it's a nonsense to predict gdp that far ahead, you seem to think its credible,  you therefore have to concede we will be better even if we leave. Your foot is bleeding. 

[ProfessorDavey]

There are risks to staying, lots of them, Greece has already cost billions hearing strong rumours they will need yet another bail out soon as they're EU run economy is in free fall, Italy could go the same way but cost a lot more, Turkey joining, migrant crisis,  TTIP, etc. All in the hands of unaccountable bureaucracy.

Project fear.

Pathetic.

And of course all of these things will affect us whether or not we are in the EU. I don't think we are part of the USA, but when their financial system imploded in 2007 so did ours. I don't think we are part of China but the slow down in their economy has substantially affected the UK - just ask people in Port Talbot. And if there is another financial crisis we will almost certainly be affected worse if we aren't part of the largest economic block on the planet.

[ProfessorDavey]

No I think it's a nonsense to predict gdp that far ahead, you seem to think its credible,  you therefore have to concede we will be better even if we leave. Your foot is bleeding. 

That's right - just dismiss expert opinion if you don't like it.

So you accept that there is no evidence that the UK would be better off or even the same if we leave, while there is huge amounts of evidence that we will be very much worse off, and will be hit particularly hard in the next 10 years or so due to the complexities and uncertainly associated with leaving.

You OK with that. Happy to make other people poorer just to pander to you petty nationalist isolationism. Maybe you should agree to make up the shortfall in their incomes from your own pocket - that would at least be an honourable position to take if you are committing people to being poorer because of your political dogma.

[ProfessorDavey]

There you are relegating the UK to be as relevant as Bulgaria.

I nave said that although your comment is rather arrogant and patronising towards Bulgaria.

What I am saying is that if Bulgaria (or any other of the 27 member states left if we leave) decided they don't like a potential trade deal between the UK and the remaining EU they can veto it. And the big risk for the UK, or rather for those that see restricting EU migration as key, is that for some countries in the EU maintenance of free movement of labour is much more important to them than the rather tiny amount of trade they do with the UK.

I used Bulgaria because they are likely to be in that category. So if Bulgaria thinks that removing free movement of people lies beyond their 'red line' they can effectively say 'you either maintain free movement of labour, or there will be no trade deal'. And if they do that the UK cannot do anything about it. They can either accept that there won't be a ratified trade deal in place or they can agree to free movement of labour from Bulgaria (and presumably from all of the rest of the EU). To suggest we are in charge of those decisions and can some how demand free trade deals that suit us (but might not suit the other 27) but can also demand restrictions on migration that suit us (but might not suit the other 27) is ludicrous and also naive and arrogant.

Any agreement must be agreed by all 28 countries - and every one has an equal veto, in other words if they don't like it and refuse to ratify then there will be no deal.

[jakswan]

Project fear.

Pathetic.

We were talking about risks, we have to discuss what they are. Project fear would be if all of our arguments were about risks, like, this was all we had as an argument, hold up a mirror.

And of course all of these things will affect us whether or not we are in the EU. I don't think we are part of the USA, but when their financial system imploded in 2007 so did ours. I don't think we are part of China but the slow down in their economy has substantially affected the UK - just ask people in Port Talbot. And if there is another financial crisis we will almost certainly be affected worse if we aren't part of the largest economic block on the planet.

Well done the global economy effects the UK regardless of remain or leave, what are you coming up with next 'Pope is Catholic' or 'bear shits in woods'. If we are discussing this as a risk, then its to what extent it effects the UK economy not if it effects the UK economy.

Greece and other Euro economies needing further bail outs is a risk, not so much because it costs the EU but because if the EURO fails the EU fails.

If we're in as it fails its going to have a massive effect on the UK, it will have less effect if we are out.

I actually don't subscribe to your 'big is best' ideology, Iceland was in a worse state than Greece but are free to run their own economy, unlike Greece (who have to do what the EU tells them to do), and things have gone well.

To be consistent with the whole big is best thing; do you want the UK to join the Eurozone?

[ProfessorDavey]

Turkey joining

I'll pick this example just to show what nonsense you are spouting.

No new member state can join the EU without agreement from all existing member states. So if you don't want Turkey to join that decision is entirely within the power of the UK government. If they say no (even if the other 27 say yes) then it doesn't happen.

And actually if you are concerned about Turkey joining, presumably because you think we will be 'overrun' with Turkish migrants leaving is much more of a threat. While we remain we can veto Turkey joining. If we leave we have no say, the other 27 can allow Turkey in even if we would have opposed. But as it is very likely that a trade deal will be inextricably linked to the free movement of labour from all EU countries even though we wouldn't have wanted them to join, by leaving the EU will will no longer have a say, yet we will be bound by rules allowing free movement from Turkey if it joins.

So to use Norway as an example. If they were in the EU they could prevent Turkey joint and de facto prevent free migration from Turkey. As they aren't a member they cannot prevent Turkey from joining but are bound to allow free migration from Turkey if they join.

[jakswan]

I nave said that although your comment is rather arrogant and patronising towards Bulgaria.

What I am saying is that if Bulgaria (or any other of the 27 member states left if we leave) decided they don't like a potential trade deal between the UK and the remaining EU they can veto it. And the big risk for the UK, or rather for those that see restricting EU migration as key, is that for some countries in the EU maintenance of free movement of labour is much more important to them than the rather tiny amount of trade they do with the UK.

Well your comments are rather arrogant and patronising towards the UK. You forget the influence and power Germany and France have in the EU.

I used Bulgaria because they are likely to be in that category. So if Bulgaria thinks that removing free movement of people lies beyond their 'red line' they can effectively say 'you either maintain free movement of labour, or there will be no trade deal'. And if they do that the UK cannot do anything about it. They can either accept that there won't be a ratified trade deal in place or they can agree to free movement of labour from Bulgaria (and presumably from all of the rest of the EU). To suggest we are in charge of those decisions and can some how demand free trade deals that suit us (but might not suit the other 27) but can also demand restrictions on migration that suit us (but might not suit the other 27) is ludicrous and also naive and arrogant.

What is ludicrous and also naive and arrogant is not to negotiate and fly the white flag.

Any agreement must be agreed by all 28 countries - and every one has an equal veto, in other words if they don't like it and refuse to ratify then there will be no deal.

Which is why the EU can never ever be reformed. So if you were Bulgaria you would apply your veto, don't get free movement of labour to the UK and piss off France and Germany, blimey hopefully they don't call you to run their country.

As I understand it 2.2% of all exports from Bulgaria go to the UK and 1.5% of imports come from UK, ohhhh no, your other foot is bleeding now!

[ProfessorDavey]

We were talking about risks, we have to discuss what they are. Project fear would be if all of our arguments were about risks, like, this was all we had as an argument, hold up a mirror.

Given that the Brexiters have been shouting 'project fear' any time anyone mentions a risk of leaving the EU it would appear that your approach is as follows.

If a remain campaigner mentions a risk of leaving (usually backed up by huge amounts of expert opinion) that is 'project fear'.

If Brexiters mention a risk (usually vague hand waving without a shred of evidence) that is simply sensibly mentioning risks.

There is a word for that, it beings with a 'h' and includes 'y' twice 's', 'p', 'c', 'r', 'i' and 'o' although not necessarily in that order.

[ProfessorDavey]

As I understand it 2.2% of all exports from Bulgaria go to the UK and 1.5% of imports come from UK, ohhhh no, your other foot is bleeding now!

Which is a tiny percentage - what proportion of UK exports and imports are with other EU countries Jaks - isn't that around 40-50%.

At 2.2% I would be pretty certain that free movement of labour from Bulgaria to Britain will be a much more important issue than a tiny amount of trade.

[jakswan]

Given that the Brexiters have been shouting 'project fear' any time anyone mentions a risk of leaving the EU it would appear that your approach is as follows.

If a remain campaigner mentions a risk of leaving (usually backed up by huge amounts of expert opinion) that is 'project fear'.

If Brexiters mention a risk (usually vague hand waving without a shred of evidence) that is simply sensibly mentioning risks.

There is a word for that, it beings with a 'h' and includes 'y' twice 's', 'p', 'c', 'r', 'i' and 'o' although not necessarily in that order.

Oh I spy cry?

[jakswan]

Which is a tiny percentage - what proportion of UK exports and imports are with other EU countries Jaks - isn't that around 40-50%.

At 2.2% I would be pretty certain that free movement of labour from Bulgaria to Britain will be a much more important issue than a tiny amount of trade.

So if you were running Bulgaria you'd end up with risking 2.2% of your exports, have pissed off Germany & France and not get free movement of our people to UK. Lose, lose, lose, you have run out of feet!

[ProfessorDavey]

So if you were running Bulgaria you'd end up with risking 2.2% of your exports, have pissed off Germany & France and not get free movement of our people to UK. Lose, lose, lose, you have run out of feet!

Nope you'd hold out to ensure that any deal included free movement of labour, which would of course be in the best interests of the people of Bulgaria, and I'm sure you'd expect the primary concern of the Bulgarian government in deciding whether or not to agree to a deal will be what is in the best interests of the people of Bulgaria.

But of course the best scenario would be for the UK to remain within the EU so that the best possible trade deal will remain, plus free movement of labour will also remain and there will be no uncertainty.

But, of course, were the UK to leave it would only take one of the other 27 countries to block a deal, for whatever reason.

[jakswan]

Nope you'd hold out to ensure that any deal included free movement of labour, which would of course be in the best interests of the people of Bulgaria, and I'm sure you'd expect the primary concern of the Bulgarian government in deciding whether or not to agree to a deal will be what is in the best interests of the people of Bulgaria.

But of course the best scenario would be for the UK to remain within the EU so that the best possible trade deal will remain, plus free movement of labour will also remain and there will be no uncertainty.

But, of course, were the UK to leave it would only take one of the other 27 countries to block a deal, for whatever reason.

Free movement isn't going to be up for negotiation.

[ProfessorDavey]

Free movement isn't going to be up for negotiation.

Then nor will free trade without restrictions. The EU isn't going to permit one without the other.

So which is more important to you - restricting migration from the EU or maintaining free trade, because you sure as hell aren't going to be able to achieve both.

[Spud]

Sorry to butt in, but I have a question. How many refugees and migrants has America taken to help Europe out? Perhaps Obama would have a point if his country allowed us more freedom to live there.

[jakswan]

Then nor will free trade without restrictions. The EU isn't going to permit one without the other.

So which is more important to you - restricting migration from the EU or maintaining free trade, because you sure as hell aren't going to be able to achieve both.

I disagree.

[ProfessorDavey]

I disagree.

You can disagree all you like but your opinion is irrelevant, what is relevant are the principles of the EU. The fundamental principles of the EU include complete free trade and complete free movement of labour. They will not accept one without the other - to do so would run coach and horses through the basic principles of the EU and they won't do it on principle and no deal on that basis would be agreed in practice as there is no way all 27 remaining states would ever agree.

[Jack Knave]

Classic muddled thinking - it doesn't matter that we import more than we export, the issue is what proportion of our trade is with the other 27 and what proportion of the other 27 is with us. So trade with the EU is proportionately far, far more significant to us, than trade from (for example) Germany is with us.

Try it this way - image I am a small company with a turnover of £1M and 50% of that turnover depends on bilateral trade with Tesco, and they buy more from me than I buy from them. So £500k of their trade is with me, which represents 0.0008% of their turnover. Who is the deal more important to - not rocket science. Now I now this is a more extreme example than UK/rest of EU trade but the principle remains trade from the other 27 with the UK represents a vastly small proportion of their trade or GDP than trade from UK to the other 27 represents for the UK.

So we are screwed if we don't get a deal, for many of the other EU countries it would have very little effect. And for some there is very little trade at all - Bulgaria, for example. And there may be other issues far more important to the Bulgarian government and people than a tiny loss of trade, for example free movement of labour.
But of course Bulgaria has an absolute veto on any deal, so if Bulgaria decides not to play ball unless the UK allows free movement, then the deal is dead and up come the tariffs once the 2 year moratorium is over and there is absolutely nothing the UK can do about it. Indeed this is why there remains no deal in place with Canada, despite Boris (never one to actually understand detail) claiming that was the kind of deal we wanted, i.e. one that isn't in place 8 years after the start of formal process and 12 years after the agreement to sort out a deal. And of course one that even if enacted it doesn't cover services, which just might be a teeny, tiny problem for the UK.

There is also, of course, the politics. There will almost certainly be countries that will want to give the UK a very hard ride if it leaves, on the basis of deterring others from leaving. Now you might think that's pathetic, and silly, but your view is irrelevant - if Portugal for example thinks holding the EU project together is more important than a bit of trade with the UK, then we are in trouble. And of course this is what the UK government did in advance of IndyRef

Your argument is back to front, we buy more off them than they do off us.

So what you are saying is that the EU is stymying itself, or that each country is so by being in the EU, because being that all their interests are different one or two of them will veto nearly every deal with the rest of the world leaving themselves to trade with themselves; with the successful Eurozone!!!  Which raises the issues of the albatross around the EU's neck...

And add to this that they will be missing our membership fee!!!

[Jack Knave]

Wrong as ever.

If there is a potential deal on the table between the UK and the EU, once the UK has left that deal must be ratified by all 27 member states - the power rests with each member state not with the EU in Brussels. So if just one rejects it, then there is no deal.

And on your other point, wrong again. The EU isn't bankrupt - I think you will find that it is the UK with the most problematic trade deficit and also has just about the worst deficit as a proportion of GDP in the EU (only Greece and Spain are worse) and the UK's levels at 4.4% are twice that of the EU as a whole at 2.2% (and of course that would be better still without the UK).

I think debt to GDP is a better indicator and on that we are about the same.

http://www.statista.com/statistics/269684/national-debt-in-eu-countries-in-relation-to-gross-domestic-product-gdp/

The only difference is that especially the EZ and the EU are stagnating, we're growing as more and more of our exports go to the world and less to the EU.

[Jack Knave]

If you believe that, you really would be sending us into an economic backwater.  Who do you propose we trade with - North Korea?

You haven't understood my post which is why yours doesn't make sense. You do know who I'm referring to by the elites?

[Jack Knave]

It is the continuation of the road we are on - we understand what that means - it is the status quo.

You deluded fool!!!

You are welcome to your opinion, but in mine the EU is no more corrupt than the UK government and is certainly not abusive - what on earth do you mean by that. As far as I am concerned the EU is a thoroughly good thing and we benefit massively from our membership in many, many ways.

Laughably deluded!!!

Look at what they did to Greece!

You are usually sensible and level headed but you are coming across as troll.