The result of the EU referendum:

[Aruntraveller]

Life is a gamble.

Possibly - but some bets are safer than others.

[ProfessorDavey]

This is a lie, currently we have one policy that applies to people that come from Ireland and another that applies to people coming from Spain.

Wrong - people from all EU member states have the same rights to travel to and work in the UK. The only difference is the type of identity documentation they may need to show, but that doesn't alter their fundamental rights, outside of any temporary transitional arrangements that are sometimes enacted for newly joined member states.

So if there is a deal with the EU, which would necessarily involve migration it would not be possible for that deal to allow Irish citizens (or even Scottish citizens if they gained independence) free right to enter and work, yet not allow Romanian citizens.

[ProfessorDavey]

We can always extend negotiations for Brexit.

But once the 2 year grace period is over then in the absence of a deal the tariffs go on. And of course they'd go on from day 1 for non EU countries which have preferential deals with the EU as the UK would no longer be part of that deal

No according to figures you consider authoritative if we leave we will be better off then we are now.

Not necessarily as you need to take account of cost of living increases. But that isn't the key point - which is, of course, whether we'd be better off in 2030 if we remain in the UK or if we leave. And given that you seem obsessed with the treasury figures then you must clearly accept that we would be significantly better off remaining than leaving.

[jakswan]

Wrong - people from all EU member states have the same rights to travel to and work in the UK. The only difference is the type of identity documentation they may need to show, but that doesn't alter their fundamental rights, outside of any temporary transitional arrangements that are sometimes enacted for newly joined member states.

That is no what you wrote originally.

So if there is a deal with the EU, which would necessarily involve migration it would not be possible for that deal to allow Irish citizens (or even Scottish citizens if they gained independence) free right to enter and work, yet not allow Romanian citizens.

Your crystal ball again?

[jakswan]

But once the 2 year grace period is over then in the absence of a deal the tariffs go on. And of course they'd go on from day 1 for non EU countries which have preferential deals with the EU as the UK would no longer be part of that deal.

The 2 year period can be extended.

Not necessarily as you need to take account of cost of living increases. But that isn't the key point - which is, of course, whether we'd be better off in 2030 if we remain in the UK or if we leave. And given that you seem obsessed with the treasury figures then you must clearly accept that we would be significantly better off remaining than leaving.

If the key point is 'whether we'd be better off in 2030 if we remain in the UK or if we leave' as you confess and you consider the treasury figures to be authoritative (I don't, I've repeatedly told you this) then you have lost the argument.

What did the treasury report predict the cost of living would be by 2030?

[Jack Knave]

Nor is it their choice whether Bulgaria (or Estonia, or Cyrpus, or Malta, or Slovenia) chose to ratify a proposed EU/Uk trade deal following Brexit.

BMW can wish all they want - if Bulgaria (or Estonia, or Cyrpus, or Malta, or Slovenia) decide that maintaining free movement of their people to the UK is more important the tariff free trade on a tiny proportion of their imports and exports then there is absolutely nothing that BMW can do. And of course there is nothing the UK can do if if Bulgaria (or Estonia, or Cyrpus, or Malta, or Slovenia) decide that way and therefore refuse to agree any deal that doesn't include free movement of labour.

Don't forget that the reason the Canada deal is still not ratified is for exactly that reason  - refusal of one EU country to agree due to restrictions on movement of people.

As I have said I don't think Germany and France will be too pleased with them if they bloke the sale of their goods to the UK. So what they will do is threaten to cut of the aid to those countries if they don't agree to a nice deal for us Brits. 

That is something Canada doesn't have that's a history of buying more from the EU than selling to them.

[Jack Knave]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36120560

I think the whole issue of TTIP is probably more important than whether we stay in the EU or not.  It is tied up with that debate, but I'd be interested to know whether our leaving the EU would remove us from its embrace.

Yes it would because it is with the EU. So if we leave we would be free from it. However, from what I'm hearing it looks as if it won't be ratified as opposition to it is growing rapidly now.

[Jack Knave]

Well Obama has been talking about the prospects of the US/UK deal in terms of time (back of the queue etc) but presumably the content would be pretty similar to the TTIP, although of course the UK would have far, far less influence in negotiations than the EU has so it would likely be more favourable to the US and less favourable to the UK than TTIP.

I'm not sure we need a FTA with the US because we trade with them now. We buy £57 billion of goods off them now and I'm sure they are not going to lose that over some petty idiocy.

First time to get negotiations sorted and ratified. The TTIP negotiations have been ongoing for 5 years already and we haven't actually need approved by anyone yet. It still needs ratification from 29 countries - the USA and the EU 28, and requires all 29 to agree, if just one doesn't it is back to the drawing board. That gives a clear indication of the likely timescale for any USA/UK deal (which Obama indicated yesterday as 5-10 years) and for any EU/UK deal.

Obama has pretty much back tracked on this back of the queue stuff in an interview, and they are not exactly snowed under with lots of trades deals going on now.

[jeremyp]

Life is a gamble.

And in what way do you think that answers the criticism that the Brexiters are gambling with everybody's livelihoods?

I don't mind you gambling your livelihood on any deal you like. I just don't want you to do it with mine too.

[jeremyp]

The 2 year period can be extended.

How?

[Jack Knave]

If that turns out to be true, our economy will crash and burn too because half of our oversees trade will have disappeared. If we are in the EU we can help prevent it, if we are out, all we can do is watch while they go down taking us with them.

And how can we prevent it when the idiots in Brussels can't be budged on any issue. They think they can solve things by kicking the can down the road and that they are gods and can control everything. They are deluded fools and we need to cut ourselves free from them.

If what you say is right why aren't they doing something now, because they have been told, instead of carrying on with policies the insane would have dropped years ago? Nothing is being faced up to in Brussels. The 'Emperor has no clothes on' and no one has the balls to say so and face up to the fact.

The UK is the second/third largest contributor to the EU and yet even with this massive threat of losing this the only concessions they gave Cameron was a 'bucket of piss'!!! With this lack of a grip on reality on their part and nothing to bargain with, with them, thinking that staying in to try to influence them to see sense is a grade A delusion.

[Jack Knave]

Not when negotiating with the single largest trading block in the world that accounts for abut 50% of our trade, in other words the EU. And it isn't just trade deals involving the EU that take an age, all do and those across regions take longer. And that will account for virtually all the other deals we will need to strike outside of the deal with the EU.

That's not true. It is 45% of our exports. Our exports are about 30-35% of all our trade. So that's 45% of 30-35%.

[Jack Knave]

We won't get a good deal then.

Either we will because we hold many of the trump cards or they will lose out due to their stupidity - which will lead to the EU crashing, which it will do anyway at some point in the near future.

[Jack Knave]

This to me is the single most important point in the whole debate. The whole lets take a bit of a risk strategy of BREXIT is deeply unsettling to me. But then I'm not a gambling man - gambling being one of the few issues I get foamingly moralistic about.

It's a risk to stay in! So what are you going to do?

[jakswan]

And in what way do you think that answers the criticism that the Brexiters are gambling with everybody's livelihoods?

I don't mind you gambling your livelihood on any deal you like. I just don't want you to do it with mine too.

The Bremainers vote and gamble to stay, we live in a democracy.

[jakswan]

How?

Mutual agreement.

[Hope]

The Bremainers vote and gamble to stay, we live in a democracy.

You mean, neither the Bremainers or the Brexiters have the slighest idea what will happen in the event of an 'Out' vote?  Tell us something new!!

[Aruntraveller]

It's a risk to stay in! So what are you going to do?

Me I'm going to vote to stay in as I perceive it to be less of a risk to the UK. Nothing that the BREXIT side have suggested has convinced me that there will not be a huge destabilisation of our economy with the flight of financial services to other centres like Frankfurt, etc.

Much though I would like it to be otherwise we are reliant on the banking sector for our much vaunted 5th largest economy claim. To ignore the destabilising effect that exit will have on that sector, is highly irresponsible.

[Hope]

It's a risk to stay in! So what are you going to do?

It's no less of a risk to leave, JK. "So what are you going to do?".  Risk the future of the UK and/or its component parts?

[Hope]

Me I'm going to vote to stay in as I perceive it to be less of a risk to the UK. Nothing that the BREXIT side have suggested has convinced me that there will not be a huge destabilisation of our economy with the flight of financial services to other centres like Frankfurt, etc.

Much though I would like it to be otherwise we are reliant on the banking sector for our much vaunted 5th largest economy claim. To ignore the destabilising effect that exit will have on that sector, is highly irresponsible.

Well put, Trent.  Can I borrow this for use on other forums and discussion places I'm involved with?   

[Aruntraveller]

Well put, Trent.  Can I borrow this for use on other forums and discussion places I'm involved with?   

I think that may be a first  But of course you can.

[jakswan]

Me I'm going to vote to stay in as I perceive it to be less of a risk to the UK.

What a gambler!

Nothing that the BREXIT side have suggested has convinced me that there will not be a huge destabilisation of our economy with the flight of financial services to other centres like Frankfurt, etc.

Likewise but vice versa.

Much though I would like it to be otherwise we are reliant on the banking sector for our much vaunted 5th largest economy claim. To ignore the destabilising effect that exit will have on that sector, is highly irresponsible.

I could argue to ignore the risks of staying is highly irresponsible, I wouldn't though, politics often descends into tribalism as one side demonise the other.

[ProfessorDavey]

That's not true. It is 45% of our exports. Our exports are about 30-35% of all our trade. So that's 45% of 30-35%.

Wrong.

The latest official figures - published on 13th April indicate that 44% of our exports and 53% of our imports are to/from the rest of the EU. So my summary of 'about 50%' is spot on.

[ProfessorDavey]

Mutual agreement.

And why would the other 27 countries agree, as this would effectively mean you could leave and retain all the benefits. It won't happen not least because France and Germany are committed to the EU project and won't risk doing anything that might result in further exits.

In reality this is yet more Brexit fantasy - bit like the SNP fantasies of 'we will automatically become members of the EU' and 'we will have an automatic right to continue to use the pound as our official currency, backed up by the Bank of England'. La, la land stuff.

[ProfessorDavey]

It's a risk to stay in! So what are you going to do?

Why is it a risk to stay in - I see no risk, we will continue as we currently are.