Author Topic: The result of the EU referendum:  (Read 257549 times)

ProfessorDavey

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #900 on: April 25, 2016, 05:19:07 PM »
Last time I looked Greece was not exactly having a great time with EU 'help', rumour has it another bail out is going to be needed, Spain & Italy also on the edge.
And where would Greece be without the support of the EU in the form of a bailout! It is bizarre to claim that a country would be better off outside of an organisation that effectively stopped it going completely to the wall by bailing them out.

And if another bailout is needed and the EU does this again they are clearly providing further help. Would Greece be better off without the opportunity of help from the EU - of course not.

Jack Knave

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #901 on: April 25, 2016, 05:29:03 PM »
And in what way do you think that answers the criticism that the Brexiters are gambling with everybody's livelihoods?

I don't mind you gambling your livelihood on any deal you like. I just don't want you to do it with mine too.
It's a gamble staying in with the failing Eurozone, the migration problem and by voting to stay the EU will take that as a vote by the British people to give them a green light to take us fully into the Ever-Closer-Union project. And to spite us they will always out vote us so we have to comply and get gradually sucked in into their madness.

Jack Knave

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #902 on: April 25, 2016, 05:41:38 PM »
Me I'm going to vote to stay in as I perceive it to be less of a risk to the UK. Nothing that the BREXIT side have suggested has convinced me that there will not be a huge destabilisation of our economy with the flight of financial services to other centres like Frankfurt, etc.

Much though I would like it to be otherwise we are reliant on the banking sector for our much vaunted 5th largest economy claim. To ignore the destabilising effect that exit will have on that sector, is highly irresponsible.
Except HSBC has recently voted to stay in the UK even though they knew this referendum was on the near horizon - I think that says loads. And several big businesses have said they are not worried by a Brexit. The more I hear about all this the better I feel about a Brexit. Yes the change at first may be a bit bumpy but after that things will improve and the EU won't the threat some claim as the lose our membership fee will weaken them as others will have to pay more and the gainers will receive less, thus hastening its demise.  ;D

Jack Knave

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #903 on: April 25, 2016, 05:53:19 PM »
It's no less of a risk to leave, JK. "So what are you going to do?".  Risk the future of the UK and/or its component parts?
Trentvoyager said he was going to vote to stay in because it was a risk to leave implying it wasn't a risk to stay. So I corrected him and ask what he was going to do now, now that there was risk on both sides of the fence.

Me, I've always been a Leaver. The EU is just another version of the Soviet Union; state control by unelected criminal elites.

Jack Knave

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #904 on: April 25, 2016, 06:08:46 PM »
Wrong.

The latest official figures - published on 13th April indicate that 44% of our exports and 53% of our imports are to/from the rest of the EU. So my summary of 'about 50%' is spot on.
You didn't use the word exports you said trade. We trade about 70-65% of our goods within the UK.

Jack Knave

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #905 on: April 25, 2016, 06:32:36 PM »
And why would the other 27 countries agree, as this would effectively mean you could leave and retain all the benefits. It won't happen not least because France and Germany are committed to the EU project and won't risk doing anything that might result in further exits.

And this is the problem, of many, that the EU has. If they give us a bespoke deal then others will become invidious about it and want something, compensatory equivalencies, themselves or will want to leave the EU - this would be truer for the richer members who would see the UK grow more rapidly than they do, over time, as the EU grinds to a halt and holds them back. If they impose tariffs then some companies, like BMW, will be annoyed with Merkel and co. and lobby the Brussels' lot because of course tariffs will mean that the UK will buy less of the EU products and search for replacements else where in the world, including the home market.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2016, 06:37:07 PM by Jack Knave »

Jack Knave

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #906 on: April 25, 2016, 06:53:59 PM »
Why is it a risk to stay in - I see no risk, we will continue as we currently are.
You see no risk?  ::)

The status quo is not on the table. As the EZ consolidates it will have the votes to out vote anyone and the Germans will have everyone by the short and curlies forcing them into line with the Ever-Closer-Union. As you saw with Greece they can close the banks down in any EZ country thereby holding them all to ransom. In effect Germany will have 19 votes.

Jack Knave

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #907 on: April 25, 2016, 07:05:19 PM »
What is really so desperate about this situation is that the true purpose of this referendum has nothing to do with leaving or remaining in the EU. It was a device dreamed up by David Cameron in order to keep the Conservative Party under control. He assumed that the majority of the electorate were satisfied with UK membership and their vote would shut the neanderthals up. This, of course, was the reason Harold Wilson called a similar referendum 40 years ago - to silence Tony Benn.

Whatever the result, using this tactic for party control purposes together with his inadequate action following the Scottish referendum will ensure that Cameron will enter history books as the most disastrous prime minister of modern times.

It should never be forgotten that he had only a single qualification for being party leader in the first place: his name was not Kenneth Clarke.
What you say is true but there is one other factor that Cameron misjudged. Winning the 2015 election. The Tories manifesto was a dream list they thought they would never have to implement (well, not fully, anyway), and which now Osborne is trying to fulfil with his never ending Omni shambles. A dream list to please and keep on board their ever doubting voters. It was all a game of future promises which have come back to bite them.

Jack Knave

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #908 on: April 25, 2016, 07:22:30 PM »
You have mischaracterised the decision. The choice is to take a massive gamble or not to gamble. We are in the EU. The choice is to continue to be in the EU or take a massive leap into the unknown.
If you are on a sinking ship (the known part) and there are some lifeboats, but the sea is a bit choppy, then you can have a chance of saving yourselves by risking it (the unknown part). Or you can stay on the 'known part' the sinking ship. Which would you choose?

You could of course cling to the illusion that the ship isn't sinking but we known how that ends. My point being that your 'known' and 'unknown' logic here doesn't actually span out into common sense.

The EU is stagnating and falling apart and has a whole raft of problems which the idiots in Brussels haven't a chance of solving because they are stuck in the past, with its ideological blind arrogant thinking.

jakswan

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #909 on: April 25, 2016, 07:30:27 PM »
And where would Greece be without the support of the EU in the form of a bailout! It is bizarre to claim that a country would be better off outside of an organisation that effectively stopped it going completely to the wall by bailing them out.

And if another bailout is needed and the EU does this again they are clearly providing further help. Would Greece be better off without the opportunity of help from the EU - of course not.

Iceland say otherwise, they were in, arguably a worse state than Greece but have bounced back quickly. Iceland enacted policies by politicians voted on by the public. Greece did what Germany told them.
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Jack Knave

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #910 on: April 25, 2016, 07:55:15 PM »
And where would Greece be without the support of the EU in the form of a bailout! It is bizarre to claim that a country would be better off outside of an organisation that effectively stopped it going completely to the wall by bailing them out.

And if another bailout is needed and the EU does this again they are clearly providing further help. Would Greece be better off without the opportunity of help from the EU - of course not.
What inane rubbish. The EZ caused Greece's problems in the first place. The EZ project was malformed from the very start and was destined to fail. They were allowed in when they weren't qualified to do so. They are bankrupt!!! You don't pile on more debt onto a debtor if they have no hope in hell of paying it off. You know nothing about finance and judging by your post to date on this thread nothing at all!!!

You are the one who is bizarre.

They would not necessarily go to the wall they would give their creditors a massive 'haircut'.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #911 on: April 25, 2016, 08:14:14 PM »
Iceland say otherwise, they were in, arguably a worse state than Greece but have bounced back quickly. Iceland enacted policies by politicians voted on by the public. Greece did what Germany told them.
So Iceland simply solved its own problems then did it.

Weird because I seem to remember there was a huge bail-out package, involving some $4.5billion from the IMF and also loans of about $6billion from a number of EU countries. So you might argue that Greece did what Germany told them but it is just as true that Iceland did what the IMF told them.

Also worth noting this from an article about the Icelandic financial crash and recovery.

'Finally, the third major factor behind the resolution of the financial crisis was the decision by the government of Iceland to apply for membership in the EU in July 2009. While views on the feasibility of EU membership are quite mixed in Iceland, this action has served to enhance the credibility of the country on international financial markets.'

So don't forget that one of the things that the Icelandic government did in 2009 in the aftermath of the crash was apply to join the EU - they can't have seen the EU at that point as something awful, could they.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #912 on: April 25, 2016, 08:25:29 PM »
You see no risk?  ::)

The status quo is not on the table. As the EZ consolidates it will have the votes to out vote anyone and the Germans will have everyone by the short and curlies forcing them into line with the Ever-Closer-Union. As you saw with Greece they can close the banks down in any EZ country thereby holding them all to ransom. In effect Germany will have 19 votes.
Project fear.

Most of the key EU decisions require unanimity of member states - if there is something that the UK doesn't like it can veto it. Oh unless we aren't in the EU anymore in which case we can't stop things that we don't like but are likely to be required to enact then, as per Norway (and indeed Iceland).

Are you aware that the oft cited by Brexiters (for reasons that are beyond me) with Canada has failed to come into effect because Bulgaria and Romania refused to accept visa requirements that didn't apply to other EU member states, so they have vetoed it. I'm sure Germany are livid because the want it to happen, but there is nothing they can do - it requires all 28 member states to agree. 27 in favour 1 against means no deal - the UK can be that one if they don't like a deal while they remain in the EU.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #913 on: April 25, 2016, 08:42:16 PM »
And this is the problem, of many, that the EU has. If they give us a bespoke deal then others will become invidious about it and want something, compensatory equivalencies, themselves or will want to leave the EU - this would be truer for the richer members who would see the UK grow more rapidly than they do, over time, as the EU grinds to a halt and holds them back. If they impose tariffs then some companies, like BMW, will be annoyed with Merkel and co. and lobby the Brussels' lot because of course tariffs will mean that the UK will buy less of the EU products and search for replacements else where in the world, including the home market.
Bulgaria saw the visa requirements that Canada wanted to impose on them as more important than ratifying a trade deal - so they blocked it ensuring tariffs are maintained. It isn't a problem to them because trade with Canada is tiny for Bulgaria so to flex their muscles, block the deal and hold out for a better deal on migration.

Bad news for you Brexiters is that Bulgaria's trade with the UK is also tiny, so no skin off their nose if they block a trade deal. But of course migration to the UK is far more significant to the Bulgarians than migration with Canada, so if they were happy to veto a Canada deal ...

Go figure.

jeremyp

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #914 on: April 26, 2016, 01:10:25 AM »
It's a gamble staying in with the failing Eurozone
But we aren't in the Eurozone.

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the migration problem

What migration problem? Migration is only a problem to xenophobes.

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and by voting to stay the EU will take that as a vote by the British people to give them a green light to take us fully into the Ever-Closer-Union project.

No they won't.

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And to spite us they will always out vote us so we have to comply and get gradually sucked in into their madness.
Paranoid Jack, or what. Europe is really nothing to be frightened of.
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #915 on: April 26, 2016, 07:39:27 AM »
But we aren't in the Eurozone.
Exactly

What migration problem? Migration is only a problem to xenophobes.
I agree that these is clearly a problem but that can only be solved by more countries taking more people who are escaping from a war zone that has destroyed their lives and the lives of their families - in some case literally destroyed, i.e. dead. But what is clear is that the current immigration rules of the UK, within the EU are such that the UK can decide, through its sovereign government, so take exactly as many or as few as it chooses. Currently the UK government has decided to take virtually none and the EU cannot force them to take more.

So for those xenophobes, I struggle to see the 'problem' - our government can (and has) chosen to take bugger all of the refugees from those war zones. For those like me who want to see a more humanitarian approach there is a problem and that problem lies with our government's pathetic response rather than with the EU.

jakswan

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #916 on: April 26, 2016, 08:13:31 AM »
So Iceland simply solved its own problems then did it.

Where did I say that?

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Weird because I seem to remember there was a huge bail-out package, involving some $4.5billion from the IMF and also loans of about $6billion from a number of EU countries. So you might argue that Greece did what Germany told them but it is just as true that Iceland did what the IMF told them.

I'm not sure of the history but this is from Wiki:-
The "Nordic Tiger" period ended in a national financial crisis in 2008, when the country's major banks failed and were taken over by the government.

The Icelandic Central Bank approached the Bank of England in March 2008 for assistance to support its currency as confidence in its heavily indebted banking system began to ebb away.[3]

Following sharp inflation in the Icelandic króna during 2008, the three major banks in Iceland, Glitnir, Landsbanki and Kaupthing were placed under government control. A subsidiary of Landsbanki, Icesave, which operated in the UK and the Netherlands, was declared insolvent, putting the savings of thousands of UK and Dutch customers at risk.[4] It also transpired that over 70 local authorities in the UK held more than £550 million of cash in Icelandic banks.[5][6] In response to statements that the accounts of UK depositors would not be guaranteed, the British governments seized assets of the banks and of the Icelandic government.[7]

On 28 October 2008, Iceland's central bank raised its interest rate to 18 per cent to fight inflation.[8]

Following negotiations with the IMF,[9] a package of $4.6 billion was agreed on 19 November, with the IMF loaning $2.1 billion and another $2.5 billion in loans and currency swaps from Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark. In addition, Poland has offered to lend $200 million and the Faroe Islands have offered 300 million Danish kroner ($50 million, about 3 per cent of Faroese GDP).[10] The Icelandic government also reported that Russia has offered $300 million.[11] The next day, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom announced a joint loan of $6.3 billion (€5 billion), related to the deposit insurance dispute.[12][13] (Dollar values are US dollars.)

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Also worth noting this from an article about the Icelandic financial crash and recovery.

'Finally, the third major factor behind the resolution of the financial crisis was the decision by the government of Iceland to apply for membership in the EU in July 2009. While views on the feasibility of EU membership are quite mixed in Iceland, this action has served to enhance the credibility of the country on international financial markets.'

Source?

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So don't forget that one of the things that the Icelandic government did in 2009 in the aftermath of the crash was apply to join the EU - they can't have seen the EU at that point as something awful, could they.

No really sure its relevant of it helps your case since Iceland have withdrawn their application now.
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jakswan

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #917 on: April 26, 2016, 08:21:38 AM »
Are you aware that the oft cited by Brexiters (for reasons that are beyond me) with Canada has failed to come into effect because Bulgaria and Romania refused to accept visa requirements that didn't apply to other EU member states, so they have vetoed it. I'm sure Germany are livid because the want it to happen, but there is nothing they can do - it requires all 28 member states to agree. 27 in favour 1 against means no deal - the UK can be that one if they don't like a deal while they remain in the EU.

This underlines the entire reason to leave. A trade deal with Canada might suit UK, France and Germany but it doesn't suit Bulgaria eventually after a long long time a compromise will be made, it won't really suit anyone perfectly but that is the EU for in a nutshell. Same with Greece its people want to try a left wing solution to its economic crisis but Germany couldn't allow that, so for years now they have muddled through without any real solution.

If you ever want to know how apt the saying 'a camel is a horse designed by committee' then the EU offers a classic example.
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jakswan

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #918 on: April 26, 2016, 08:25:41 AM »
What migration problem? Migration is only a problem to xenophobes.

I actually think migration is actually good for a country but there are points where is becomes an issue as it out paces infrastructure.

Just to confirm, your position is that it is never a problem, that is your position or was it more rhetoric on your part?
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jeremyp

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #919 on: April 26, 2016, 10:33:44 AM »

Just to confirm, your position is that it is never a problem, that is your position or was it more rhetoric on your part?

Immigration is good. There may be issues surrounding the integration of immigrants into British society, but these are better solved by tackling them directly rather than trying to keep immigrants out. We spend a fortune trying to make our borders impenetrable but I think the money would be better spent on infrastructure to cope with the influx.




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~TW~

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #920 on: April 26, 2016, 11:23:24 AM »
Immigration is good. There may be issues surrounding the integration of immigrants into British society, but these are better solved by tackling them directly rather than trying to keep immigrants out. We spend a fortune trying to make our borders impenetrable but I think the money would be better spent on infrastructure to cope with the influx.
Can we afford it after the fine

                                                                               http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/664468/European-Commission-sue-Britain-weeks-before-Brexit-vote
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~TW~

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #921 on: April 26, 2016, 11:43:33 AM »
Immigration is good. There may be issues surrounding the integration of immigrants into British society, but these are better solved by tackling them directly rather than trying to keep immigrants out. We spend a fortune trying to make our borders impenetrable but I think the money would be better spent on infrastructure to cope with the influx.

Immigration is good,yes people have been coming here for years long before the EU,saturation is not good a river flowing is good but when it is in  flood it is not good. and immigration is in flood now and I, and many others do not want it.

                          ~TW~
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jeremyp

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #922 on: April 26, 2016, 12:20:33 PM »
immigration is in flood now
No it isn't.

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and I, and many others do not want it.
Because you are xenophobic small minded little Englanders.
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~TW~

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #923 on: April 26, 2016, 12:34:16 PM »
No it isn't.
Because you are xenophobic small minded little Englanders.

 So people being drowned in boatloads is normal.Also in your daft world you exist in you cannot see this country and its infrastructure failing.I am a big Englander and pratts like you are a pain in the arse.

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jeremyp

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #924 on: April 26, 2016, 12:57:17 PM »
So people being drowned in boatloads is normal.
That's not immigration, that's fleeing a life of desperate survival. Almost none of those people are coming to the UK. There's no flood of immigration here as you falsely asserted.

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Also in your daft world you exist in you cannot see this country and its infrastructure failing.

If this country is failing, it is because of the incumbent government systematically dismantling its public institutions in the name of a quick buck. It has nothing to do with the immigrants.

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I am a big Englander

No you aren't. You are to small minded to see beyond the shores of this island.

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and pratts like you are a pain in the arse.
So my forceful kick hit its target. Good.
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