Author Topic: The result of the EU referendum:  (Read 257301 times)

ProfessorDavey

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #1150 on: May 14, 2016, 01:04:20 PM »
When we leave it will be best to get the free trade deal with the EU first.
Which will never be as good as the one we currently have, although could be a darn sight worse.

And is likely to take (using the average of other deals) 7 years from start of formal negotiations, which themselves won't happen on day one. So we might have a much poorer deal than we currently have perhaps signed in 2025.

And it could be much longer - the Canada 'deal' still hasn't been signed 8 years after the formal negotiations started, and 12 years after the announcement of a desire to agree a deal.

And only then do you think we should be negotiating with others.

Walt Zingmatilder

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #1151 on: May 14, 2016, 01:41:48 PM »
When we leave it will be best to get the free trade deal with the EU first.

Latest polls still show leave in the lead, Scots might keep us in though, maybe we should have a vote to throw Scotland out of the Union. :)
So Jak are Messrs Gove,Johnson,IBS, Farage and Banks going to spend the money saved on rehousing and rejobbing those made unemployed by a Brexit.

Jack Knave

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #1152 on: May 14, 2016, 06:21:52 PM »
Presumably the Germans and BMW are pretty keen on a deal with Canada, yet that hasn't been ratified yet because Bulgaria and Romania have refused to sign until the provisions on migration from those countries are the same as for the rest of the EU. Nothing that Germany or BMW can do.
You've said this before and I replied that we already do loads of trade with the EU which they can't afford to lose. But in Canada's case they don't have such a strong back history of copious trade with the EU, so BMW etc. don't know what they are missing and so are less vociferous with this.

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But here is the interesting point - this is just the latest of a series of empasses on that deal, usually related to migration - in every case one or more EU country has refused to sign so the deal cannot be ratified. Who has blinked first in every case - Canada - every time they have caved in, giving greater concessions to the EU and making the deal better and better for the EU.
Again the same issue applies. The Canadians don't have a back record to lever with, to bargain with, we do. In Canada's case the EU have nothing to really lose because there has not been a great deal of trade with them - but if they don't make a deal with us they will lose loads, not to mention our membership fee.

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Why - firstly because a deal is much more important to Canada (as they'd get access to the largest economic block on the planet) than to the EU so Canada will keep giving and giving to get the deal. But also because the need to ratify by all EU countries actually is a master stroke in ensuring that the EU gets the best deal possible - it has to be good for everywhere or it won't happen. This isn't the case where a single government decides. So Scotland has no veto over a UK brokered trade deal which might not be good for Scotland. But in the context of the EU unless it is good for the UK, and France and Germany, and Estonia and Malta etc etc etc it won't happen.
The overarching issue here is that a Brexit will weaken the EU. It may even start to crack up as France will have to put in a larger membership fee which its economy can't cope with (this would be true of Italy as well); or the poorer members won't get so much which may mean they will not play ball - some of the East European members are already pushing things. If this is the case then the EU will be bending over backwards to secure a deal which guarantees that our trade money keeps coming to them.

OR: They will be arrogant and play as if they are the stronger partner and shoot themselves in the foot.

And don't forget that the peoples of Europe are also getting disillusioned with the EU and its arrogance, and trouble at 'home' for them may just spark real discontentment amongst the citizens of the EU.

Jack Knave

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #1153 on: May 14, 2016, 06:28:09 PM »
So Jak are Messrs Gove,Johnson,IBS, Farage and Banks going to spend the money saved on rehousing and rejobbing those made unemployed by a Brexit.
They won't be in power after the referendum - though what will happen or who will afterwards is an unknown quantity, even if it is a stay vote.

The Accountant, OBE, KC

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #1154 on: May 14, 2016, 07:27:52 PM »
Speaking of unemployment, housing and pressure on infrastructure caused by European migrants, which seems to have prompted Brexit, I was watching a programme about Jordan's reaction to a sudden influx of over 600,000 Syrian refugees - about 13% of their population. Jordan has a 31% unemployment rate.

Apparently the refugees are accessing the healthcare system  in Jordan and because of the huge influx of children some schools are operating a double-shift system - Jordanian children go to school in the morning and Syrian children go to school in the afternoon, because of differences in cultural values, customs and norms.

Makes Brexit look like a bit of an over-reaction IMO.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2016, 07:33:41 PM by Gabriella »
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jakswan

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #1155 on: May 15, 2016, 06:46:37 AM »
Which will never be as good as the one we currently have, although could be a darn sight worse.

And is likely to take (using the average of other deals) 7 years from start of formal negotiations, which themselves won't happen on day one. So we might have a much poorer deal than we currently have perhaps signed in 2025.

And it could be much longer - the Canada 'deal' still hasn't been signed 8 years after the formal negotiations started, and 12 years after the announcement of a desire to agree a deal.

And only then do you think we should be negotiating with others.

Since we already a free trade deal it will be done in no time.
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jakswan

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #1156 on: May 15, 2016, 06:48:04 AM »
So Jak are Messrs Gove,Johnson,IBS, Farage and Banks going to spend the money saved on rehousing and rejobbing those made unemployed by a Brexit.

No job losses Farage won't be in government the £350 million a week could be spent on many worthy causes.
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Hope

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #1157 on: May 15, 2016, 08:24:32 AM »
No job losses Farage won't be in government the £350 million a week could be spent on many worthy causes.
The problem with this assessment is that it is no more than conjecture, jak.  If we were to leave the EU, there would inevitably be job losses.  For a start all the UK's MEPs would be out of a job as would their researchers and staff.  It is likely that we would lose at least some of the jobs that exist on the back of international companies who want a way into the EU - such as car manufacturers.

You say that the '£350 million a week could be spent on many worthy causes'.  Would it be spent thus?  Would it be used to prop up our agricultural sector, help our economically deprived areas, support areas such as heritage and scientific research, combat illegal immigration, ...? Or would it be spent on more 'mainstream issues' such as an already ailing health and social care system that needs reform more than mere finance, or on education, defence, ...?
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Hope

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #1158 on: May 15, 2016, 08:26:49 AM »
Since we already a free trade deal it will be done in no time.
What evidence or precedent do you have to indicate that 'it will be done in no time'?
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #1159 on: May 15, 2016, 09:13:53 AM »
You say that the '£350 million a week could be spent on many worthy causes'.  Would it be spent thus?  Would it be used to prop up our agricultural sector, help our economically deprived areas, support areas such as heritage and scientific research, combat illegal immigration, ...? Or would it be spent on more 'mainstream issues' such as an already ailing health and social care system that needs reform more than mere finance, or on education, defence, ...?
Or cover a small fraction of the £900million per week that our economy would shrink by if we weren't members of the EU.

And of course the net contribution is no-where near the £350 million lie being perpetrated by the Brexiters as it doesn't include our rebate which is removers before any contribution is made, nor does it cover all the funding (e.g. for scientific research, infrastructure, support for deprived areas, industry, agriculture etc etc) that we get back via this mechanism.

The Accountant, OBE, KC

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #1160 on: May 15, 2016, 09:28:15 AM »
Since we already a free trade deal it will be done in no time.
I actually wasn't aware that we have a free trade deal with our signature on it that allows free trade of goods and allows us to provide financial services without freedom of movement of EU citizens - can you link to the text of this deal please so I can have a look?

For example, if we are out of the EU, I want to see what method of dispute settlement has been agreed in this free trade and financial services deal that has no free movement of people. Has the deal already been ratified by all the remaining members of the EU? That was quick.
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Rhiannon

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #1161 on: May 15, 2016, 12:49:20 PM »
More hysteria from Boris Johnson. Utter embarrassment to politics.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36295208

SusanDoris

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #1162 on: May 15, 2016, 12:54:37 PM »
Prof Davey

It really cheers me up to read your posts.  :)
This morning I don't know whether to think that Boris's latest words are a boost for the remainers, or not. The thought of him, Gove and the ghastly Nigell farrage having power and influence makes me shudder.

The meeting I went to on Friday (head to head with local MP Desmond Swayne and Sir Vince Cable) was okay. Mostly older generation wanting out. However, towards the end,there seemed to be an increase in the volume of applause for the remainers. In this area, I think quite a few are a bit reluctant to say they are for remaining, whereas I speak up whenever possible!

A week or two ago, a similar meeting was held in Brockenhurst College with students, but I can't find out how the vote went. can you? I would be interested to know.
The Most Honourable Sister of Titular Indecision.

jakswan

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #1163 on: May 15, 2016, 01:08:36 PM »
The problem with this assessment is that it is no more than conjecture, jak.  If we were to leave the EU, there would inevitably be job losses.  For a start all the UK's MEPs would be out of a job as would their researchers and staff.  It is likely that we would lose at least some of the jobs that exist on the back of international companies who want a way into the EU - such as car manufacturers.

You say that the '£350 million a week could be spent on many worthy causes'.  Would it be spent thus?  Would it be used to prop up our agricultural sector, help our economically deprived areas, support areas such as heritage and scientific research, combat illegal immigration, ...? Or would it be spent on more 'mainstream issues' such as an already ailing health and social care system that needs reform more than mere finance, or on education, defence, ...?

Ohhh noo a gravy train for politicians will come to an end.

Don't know what the money will be spent on,  it will be decided by the British electorate in who they elect, not EU bureaucrats.
Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
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jakswan

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #1164 on: May 15, 2016, 01:09:45 PM »
What evidence or precedent do you have to indicate that 'it will be done in no time'?

We already comply with the regulations,  it represents a risk to all parties to change it.
Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
- Voltaire

Udayana

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #1165 on: May 15, 2016, 01:14:08 PM »
We already comply with the regulations,  it represents a risk to all parties to change it.

So you mean including free movement? If we do vote to leave, who will be negotiating any new agreement from our side?
Ah, but I was so much older then ... I'm younger than that now

jakswan

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #1166 on: May 15, 2016, 01:26:35 PM »
Or cover a small fraction of the £900million per week that our economy would shrink by if we weren't members of the EU.

That is a lie, even the government report which you have cited as valid (I don't) suggest the economy will continue to grow should we leave the EU.

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And of course the net contribution is no-where near the £350 million lie being perpetrated by the Brexiters as it doesn't include our rebate which is removers before any contribution is made, nor does it cover all the funding (e.g. for scientific research, infrastructure, support for deprived areas, industry, agriculture etc etc) that we get back via this mechanism.

Hypocrisy! Yes yes you might claim its not £350million a week but actually £100million. 

A £100 million a week!
Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
- Voltaire

jakswan

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #1167 on: May 15, 2016, 01:27:35 PM »
More hysteria from Boris Johnson. Utter embarrassment to politics.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36295208

More hysterical responses more like, they have been attempts to unify Europe before they have all failed. 
Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
- Voltaire

jakswan

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #1168 on: May 15, 2016, 01:30:09 PM »
So you mean including free movement? If we do vote to leave, who will be negotiating any new agreement from our side?

No I don't think so, actually between you and me, (don't tell anyone) I think if we vote to leave we'll have to re-vote.
Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
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Brownie

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #1169 on: May 15, 2016, 01:55:59 PM »
I really cringed when I heard what Boris said, I thought he'd have had more sense but maybe he doesn't care now.  Jeremy Corbyn came over very well on the news, I thought.
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Nearly Sane

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #1170 on: May 15, 2016, 01:59:37 PM »
It's just the same as Cameron and the war comment. The speeches are constructed so that the actual statement can be pointed out to be true and the implication denied, but the implication is deliberate and denying it is a form of lying. This is dog whistle politics on both sides.

Walt Zingmatilder

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #1171 on: May 15, 2016, 02:05:06 PM »
That is a lie, even the government report which you have cited as valid (I don't) suggest the economy will continue to grow should we leave the EU.

Hypocrisy! Yes yes you might claim its not £350million a week but actually £100million. 

A £100 million a week!
Will that pay the mortgages for those made unemployed by Brexit?

ProfessorDavey

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #1172 on: May 15, 2016, 04:11:39 PM »
That is a lie, even the government report which you have cited as valid (I don't) suggest the economy will continue to grow should we leave the EU.
It isn't a lie - being part of the EU is worth approximately £900million a week to our economy - were we to leave our economy would lose that amount of GDP.

Hypocrisy! Yes yes you might claim its not £350million a week but actually £100million. 

A £100 million a week!
Nope £900 million worse off every single week through no longer being part of the EU. Just think of all the things that £900 million each week pays for - think of the lost jobs, the lost tax, reduced wages, the massive cuts in public services needed to make up for the shortfall in tax and addition unemployment costs.

Wake up, smell the coffee Jaks - all reputable and independent economic organisations agree that the effect of leaving the EU would be very very bad from an economic perspective. Sure they aren't quite certain whether it would be pretty bad, very bad, massively bad or catastrophic. But the fact remains that it will be bad - there won't be £350 million a week more to spend their will be £900 million a week less.

Hope

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #1173 on: May 15, 2016, 05:16:12 PM »
Ohhh noo a gravy train for politicians will come to an end.
So, you're not interested in the future of those people who do ordinary jobs - and just happen to them for politicians.  Doesn't surprise me.  More importantly, at east you accept that there will be job losses, which you didn't seem to accept in the post i responded to.

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Don't know what the money will be spent on,  it will be decided by the British electorate in who they elect, not EU bureaucrats.
Didn't realise that elected our own bureaucrats.  Thought we only elected those who want to run the bureaucracy.
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Hope

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Re: The result of the EU referendum:
« Reply #1174 on: May 15, 2016, 05:18:45 PM »
More hysterical responses more like, they have been attempts to unify Europe before they have all failed.
I also like the suggestion that Boris was attempting to enlist the spirit of Churchill to his cuase, that statesman who was very keen on a united European economic area, if not politically united.
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