The result of the EU referendum:

[ProfessorDavey]

Size isn't always a guarantee of survival, look at the dinosaurs!!! The small creatures were the ones who survived and populated the global. 

Size has costs and the EU's economy, especially the Eurozone, is stagnant, or nearly so, and just one more straw to the camels back and snap!!!!!

Be careful what you wish for, because the worst possible thing for the UK post Brexit would be for the remaining EU economy to be badly affected, because that will rebound on us.

You actually sound as if you really want EU countries to fail to somehow prove you right, and to hell with the consequences for the UK. I cannot fathom that view - I want both the UK and our EU partners all to be doing well, and indeed the rest of the global economy. As globalisation develops the one thing we know is that we all succeed together or we all fail together. I'm in favour of the former, you seem wedded to the latter.

[Jack Knave]

So why are so many countries desperate to join the EU? Is it perhaps because they have seen the track record of the EU in developing the economies and standard of living of people in rather under-developed and poor countries to a state where they are broadly equivalent to the more established european economies. Being part of the EU makes countries richer and their people, from top to bottom, richer.

You tell that to the Greeks!!!

I've said this before. Are you heartless or something? Do you understand what Brussels have done and doing to the Greek people?

And the countries that want to join are poor and see a free lunch.

I think if you want countries that are really in thrall to corpora list feudal lords you should look across the Atlantic and perhaps to the kind of vision that Farage, IDS and Redwood would like in a post-Brexit UK, but which can't happen currently due to the tempering influence of the EU.

I know that Farage distains the US and I see the US as part of this corporatist, elitist scum. But you're too blind to see that the EU are part and parcel of this elitist global cabal. 

[Jack Knave]

Where have the remain camp misused tax payers money - that is a very strong allegation and one you'd better have evidence to back up.

I you mean the leaflet circulated by the government prior to the campaign don't forget that in every referendum the government is allowed to set out its views in advance of the referendum campaign. That's what happened in the 75 referendum, in those on devolution, AV vote, Scottish/Welsh independence, London Mayor etc and on this one. That is standard practice, completely accepted and not misuse of tax payers money. Are you somehow implying that this referendum should be run according to different rules to all other ones - special pleading at its most blatant clearly.

They used tax payers money not their own to do that. That is playing dirty because each side has to raise its own money not nick it from the public purse. And use the government machine to create propaganda...

[Jack Knave]

Be careful what you wish for, because the worst possible thing for the UK post Brexit would be for the remaining EU economy to be badly affected, because that will rebound on us.

You actually sound as if you really want EU countries to fail to somehow prove you right, and to hell with the consequences for the UK. I cannot fathom that view - I want both the UK and our EU partners all to be doing well, and indeed the rest of the global economy. As globalisation develops the one thing we know is that we all succeed together or we all fail together. I'm in favour of the former, you seem wedded to the latter.

Yes, I want that monster to die. It is another version of the USSR.

I do realise what that will mean but as the financial markets and the banking system are going to go pop soon anyway we are all going to have to face this massive collapse anyway.

You are sooo naïve!!! "...we all succeed together..." Tell that to the Greeks et al. Tell that to Africa et al.

[jakswan]

I said he was losing the argument - and that is pretty clear - the Brexiters don't actually seem to have an argument, their entire campaign seems to be based on smearing highly respected individuals and organisations and doing the equivalent of sticking their fingers in their ears shouting 'you're wrong, you're wrong, you're wrong' to every single credible independent economic organisation.

I've given you the arguments, higher wages, controlled immigration, a more democratic system of government, less risk from Euro collapse, and we'll still be richer than we are now if we leave according to the treasury.

One by one the Brexit leadership seem to be losing it - we've had the Farage 'I won't accept it if (when) we lose' and the Johnson 'EU and Hitler have the same goals' nonsense. You only start coming out with this kind of hysterical clap-trap when you have no cogent argument to give.

Or you pretend the other side doesn't have an argument.

[ProfessorDavey]

Tell that to Africa et al.

Last time I looked there weren't any African countries in the EU - I it is rather unlikely that they would have benefited from the support to develop economically and also as stable democracies that are part and parcel of being a member of the EU.

Don't forget that we consider all the EU member states as stable democracies, yet over half had no long-standing track record of democracy at the point when they applied for membership. Indeed over half had been run by authoritarian dictator in the ten years prior to applying to join. The ability of the EU to drive countries to become stable democracies is remarkable, and actually not that easy. Just look around the world at countries that lurch between being run by a dictator, then briefly become democracies before lurching back to dictatorship in a coup. This is of course what used to happen in most of the current EU member states, but since they joined the EU every one has enjoyed continual stable democracy.

[Gonnagle]

Step 1
Find the Windows Alt code for the vowel you want to insert. The codes for umlauted vowels are: ä (0228); Ä(0196); ë(0235); Ë(0203); ï(0239); Ï(0207); ö(0246); Ö(0214); ü(0252); Ü(0220); ÿ(0225) and Ÿ(0159).

Step 2
Enable the Num Lock feature of your numerical keypad. If you're using a laptop without a numerical keypad, pressing the "Num Lock" key usually activates the numerical keypad interposed on the main keyboard.

Related Reading: How to Put an Accent on a Letter of a Word Using Your Keyboard

Step 3
Hold down the “Alt” key, type the four-digit code for the character using the numerical keypad, and then release the “Alt” key.

Na naive, load a rubbish, who needs two wee dots anyway.

[wigginhall]

Load of böllocks.

[ProfessorDavey]

I've given you the arguments, higher wages, controlled immigration, a more democratic system of government, less risk from Euro collapse, and we'll still be richer than we are now if we leave according to the treasury.

Nope those aren't arguments - just a wish list, which won't be delivered by leaving the EU.

So to nail each one:

higher wages - evidence please - all the evidence I've seen suggests lower wages as the economy would do worse if we left rather than remain leading to unemployment and suppression of wages in the wider economy. Plus also you need to consider inflation - again the expert opinion suggests upwards inflationary pressure if we leave (in part due to weakening of the pound making imports more expensive) and even if wages remained the same in absolute terms they would be reduced in real terms due to the greater increase in cost of living.

controlled immigration - but we already have that for virtually all countries in the world - so are you saying that the approach for migrants from (for example) India, or Pakistan or Argentina is perfect. It is completely under the control of the UK government (in theory). So why then has the 'controlled immigration' risen proportionately to pretty well exactly the same extent in the most recent data than the 'uncontrolled immigration' from the EU. The reality is that it is market forces that really drives things - so a government can 'pretend' it has control, but if we need migration to fill vacancies that will happen under any system and any government, because otherwise the effect on the economy and public services would be dire.

a more democratic system of government - the EU is arguably more democratic than the UK government in that two of its elements (EU parliament and Council of ministers) have a democratic mandate, whereas we have only one - the House of Commons, with the Lords undemocratic. And our system of voting in Westminster elections leads to the current situation where one party can have all the power when 63% of the people didn't vote for them. I'd be worried about vesting more and more power in Westminster, noting that we already have one of the most centralised government systems around. I think that the EU helps to provide some checks and balances to mitigate agains the worst excesses of Westminster.

less risk from Euro collapse - we aren't in the euro and therefore aren't required to provide any direct bail out to the euro (as we didn't in 2008). But of course we will be affected economically by a eurozone crash, and just as much if we are out as in. But leaving will weaken the UK economy and also have a ripple knock on effect on the rest of the EU, weakening them too. So Brexit makes the chance of a euro crash more likely, doesn't alter our exposure to it but our weakened state will make it harder for us to ride the storm if it comes. So bad all round.

we'll still be richer than we are now if we leave according to the treasury - we've done this to death - the relevant comparison is whether we'd be better off if we stay compared to if we leave and we would be. And actually the Bank of England and others are suggesting that negative growth is a distinct possibility following a Brexit vote.

[Gonnagle]

Naïve what a load of fuss, just shows how daft I am, I thought a dipthong was a racy piece of a ladies undergarment.

Sorry folks, yes, EU REFERENDUM, very interesting, carry on.

[ProfessorDavey]

I think one of the problems, and indeed the naivety, of the Brexiters is that they think that just because the UK government might be empowered to take a decision (actually it nearly always is anyhow) that it will necessarily take the decision that they want.

So here are some examples:

Getting rid of all sorts of regulation - what evidence is there that a UK government outside of the EU would simply abolish all sorts of health & safety and other regulations - they won't, it is wishful thinking.

Creating a much more right wing free market approach, e.g by allowing employers greater freedom on wages and working conditions. Why would they change this - don't forget it is the UK government that brought in (and is raising) the minimum wage - why would they suddenly reverse this outside the EU.

Create a cap on immigration - there is already a controlled immigration approach outside the EU, which seems no less 'controlled' in practice (i.e. goes up and down proportionately just the same as EU migration) than EU migration - why would a UK government bring in more draconian immigration policies than it already has for non EU workers just because it is outside the EU. And of course this is based on an approach where the UK could stop free movement of labour, which would only happen if we gave up access to the EU free market.

[Udayana]

Indeed.

But a lot will depend on the government after any Brexit. On nearly all the points on which people object to being in the EU, the chances are that we would be worse off.

Might be worth a thread in itself - assuming we leave, what will we do or how will we run the country - tax, NHS, human rights, etc.. Who will run it .. Boris & cabal?

What is the plan to get a free trade deal with the US without ISDS? To keep free trade with Europe without conforming to Europe wide regulations and standards? Without free movement? Who has a set of immigration controls that are actually workable/sustainable? Do they plan on going down a Trump "ban all Muslims" kind of path or what? What if Scotland then vote to leave and rejoin the EU? Anyone for re-nationalization? Banning of Chinese imports? What about all the foreign companies with major stakes and control in local industries?  Are we going to take them back or sell off more?

I suspect we will go back to being the sick man of Europe, and eventually limp back to the EU or end up as Landing Strip One for the US.

The best that could happen - probably just carrying on exactly as we are now but not having to worry about being in or out of the EU or trying to reform it.

[ProfessorDavey]

Indeed.

But a lot will depend on the government after any Brexit. On nearly all the points on which people object to being in the EU, the chances are that we would be worse off.

Might be worth a thread in itself - assuming we leave, what will we do or how will we run the country - tax, NHS, human rights, etc.. Who will run it .. Boris & cabal?

There was one rather non credible Brexit group whop were trying to suggest that the economy would be stronger if we left, but this was on the basis of implementing a whole raft of John Redwood type uber right wing regulatory reforms to the UK.

Now we can argue whether these would actually improve the economy (I'd argue not), but that isn't the point. The thing is that the biggest hurdle to those kind of policies being implemented isn't being a member of the EU, but the requirement that the UK electorate would have to vote for a government far, far further to the right than we have ever seen - one that could be lead by John Redwood or IDS (and he tried and failed) and to keep them in power permanently so as to prevent a more moderate government repealing the reforms. It isn't going to happen. And actually it is just as possible (although implausible) in the EU - there is no fundamental reason why the EU couldn't shift dramatically right-wards if that reflected the political persuasion of the member state governments.

So these guys are living in a fantasy land if they think by leaving the EU we'd suddenly get all sorts of IDS/John Redwood policies being implemented - to do so would require the UK electorate to vote in a government on that platform - it ain't going to happen.

[ProfessorDavey]

There was one rather non credible Brexit group whop were trying to suggest that the economy would be stronger if we left, but this was on the basis of implementing a whole raft of John Redwood type uber right wing regulatory reforms to the UK.

Now we can argue whether these would actually improve the economy (I'd argue not), but that isn't the point. The thing is that the biggest hurdle to those kind of policies being implemented isn't being a member of the EU, but the requirement that the UK electorate would have to vote for a government far, far further to the right than we have ever seen - one that could be lead by John Redwood or IDS (and he tried and failed) and to keep them in power permanently so as to prevent a more moderate government repealing the reforms. It isn't going to happen. And actually it is just as possible (although implausible) in the EU - there is no fundamental reason why the EU couldn't shift dramatically right-wards if that reflected the political persuasion of the member state governments.

So these guys are living in a fantasy land if they think by leaving the EU we'd suddenly get all sorts of IDS/John Redwood policies being implemented - to do so would require the UK electorate to vote in a government on that platform - it ain't going to happen.

And actually the 'wet dreams' of what will happen if we leave the EU are diametrically opposed in some cases.

So I'm sure that John Redwood would be delighted with a kind of TTIP on steroids in which there would be no protection whatsoever for public services from aggressive intrusion of major private companies. Yet there are others who see Brexit as being a prelude to scrapping TTIP type agreements and adopting an old school protectionist approach to our industries and public services.

[jakswan]

Nope those aren't arguments - just a wish list, which won't be delivered by leaving the EU.

Which we have discussed.

So to nail each one:

You mean why you disagree with each one, honestly get some perspective and humility.

higher wages - evidence please - all the evidence I've seen suggests lower wages as the economy would do worse if we left rather than remain leading to unemployment and suppression of wages in the wider economy. Plus also you need to consider inflation - again the expert opinion suggests upwards inflationary pressure if we leave (in part due to weakening of the pound making imports more expensive) and even if wages remained the same in absolute terms they would be reduced in real terms due to the greater increase in cost of living.

I assume we both agree that price is largely dictated by supply demand. Naturally my argument would be lower supply - same demand, lower immigration, is this an argument you dispute? 

You are arguing that demand would fall driving prices down, based on your assertion that we would have a recession. The Treasury report which you previously relied on doesn't support that view, you are refuted.

controlled immigration - but we already have that for virtually all countries in the world - so are you saying that the approach for migrants from (for example) India, or Pakistan or Argentina is perfect. It is completely under the control of the UK government (in theory). So why then has the 'controlled immigration' risen proportionately to pretty well exactly the same extent in the most recent data than the 'uncontrolled immigration' from the EU. The reality is that it is market forces that really drives things - so a government can 'pretend' it has control, but if we need migration to fill vacancies that will happen under any system and any government, because otherwise the effect on the economy and public services would be dire.

Never said anything about it being perfect, I'm for immigration its a very positive thing for the country. I think we have to have controls, so if we have enough Doctors but too few plumbers then let plumbers in, and treat everyone equally so give the same chance to an Indian plumber as a polish one. As it is now there is no control so too many plumbers could come in driving the price plumbers can charge down.

a more democratic system of government - the EU is arguably more democratic than the UK government in that two of its elements (EU parliament and Council of ministers) have a democratic mandate, whereas we have only one - the House of Commons, with the Lords undemocratic. And our system of voting in Westminster elections leads to the current situation where one party can have all the power when 63% of the people didn't vote for them. I'd be worried about vesting more and more power in Westminster, noting that we already have one of the most centralised government systems around. I think that the EU helps to provide some checks and balances to mitigate agains the worst excesses of Westminster.

I've never voted for the Council of Ministers? So the EU is not more democratic than Westminster the best you come up with as an argument is that the EU is as undemocratic as Westminster which you then explain you see as undemocratic.

In which case you should be arguing for reform of the EU and Westminster, which of those are more likely to be reformed?

Shot - foot, well done.

less risk from Euro collapse - we aren't in the euro and therefore aren't required to provide any direct bail out to the euro (as we didn't in 2008). But of course we will be affected economically by a eurozone crash, and just as much if we are out as in. But leaving will weaken the UK economy and also have a ripple knock on effect on the rest of the EU, weakening them too. So Brexit makes the chance of a euro crash more likely, doesn't alter our exposure to it but our weakened state will make it harder for us to ride the storm if it comes. So bad all round.

EU demands Britain joins Greek rescue fund
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11737286/EU-demands-Britain-joins-Greek-rescue-fund.html

we'll still be richer than we are now if we leave according to the treasury

I agree!

[jeremyp]

Size isn't always a guarantee of survival, look at the dinosaurs!!!

The dinosaurs dominated the land for 120 million years. That seems like success to me.

[jeremyp]

EU demands Britain joins Greek rescue fund
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11737286/EU-demands-Britain-joins-Greek-rescue-fund.html

That story is from a year ago. Did we help bail Greece out in the end?

More to the point, it would have been in our interest to help bail Greece out and it's the right thing to do unless you take pleasure in watching people's lives go down the toilet.

If the Eurozone collapses, it doesn't matter whether we are in the EU or out of it, it will be very bad news for Britain. At least, if we are in the EU, the Eurozone has a smaller chance of collapse.

[jakswan]

That story is from a year ago. Did we help bail Greece out in the end?

More to the point, it would have been in our interest to help bail Greece out and it's the right thing to do unless you take pleasure in watching people's lives go down the toilet.

If the Eurozone collapses, it doesn't matter whether we are in the EU or out of it, it will be very bad news for Britain. At least, if we are in the EU, the Eurozone has a smaller chance of collapse.

If we helped with a bail out or not is moot, if the EURO goes into meltdown there will be more demands to help with a bail out and the Europhiles like yourself will be handing over the cash. This will hurt people in this country as our limited resources get spread very thinly.

So you are for joining the EURO? The UK would make it stronger right?

[jakswan]

I think one of the problems, and indeed the naivety, of the Brexiters is that they think that just because the UK government might be empowered to take a decision (actually it nearly always is anyhow) that it will necessarily take the decision that they want.

One the problems and indeed the dishonesty of some of the Bremaiers is that they make up arguments that have not been made and assert things are true without evidence.

So here are some examples:

Getting rid of all sorts of regulation - what evidence is there that a UK government outside of the EU would simply abolish all sorts of health & safety and other regulations - they won't, it is wishful thinking.

I've never said that.

Creating a much more right wing free market approach, e.g by allowing employers greater freedom on wages and working conditions. Why would they change this - don't forget it is the UK government that brought in (and is raising) the minimum wage - why would they suddenly reverse this outside the EU.

I never said that.

based on an approach where the UK could stop free movement of labour, which would only happen if we gave up access to the EU free market.

You don't know that.

[ProfessorDavey]

I agree!

Blimey - resorting to agreeing with your own comment - well I guess you'll have to as no-one else with any credible knowledge of economics is going to agree with you. All the credible economic organisation agree with me - that the UK will be worse off if we leave compared to if we stay.

[jakswan]

Blimey - resorting to agreeing with your own comment - well I guess you'll have to as no-one else with any credible knowledge of economics is going to agree with you. All the credible economic organisation agree with me - that the UK will be worse off if we leave compared to if we stay.

We'll still be richer than we are now if we leave according to the treasury report, is fact.

[jeremyp]

If we helped with a bail out or not is moot,

Why did you bring it up then?

if the EURO goes into meltdown there will be more demands to help with a bail out and the Europhiles like yourself will be handing over the cash. This will hurt people in this country as our limited resources get spread very thinly.

If the Eurozone goes down the toilet it will drag us in with it no matter whether we are in the EU or not. We can stick two fingers up at the beleaguered people who live in the Eurozone or we can help try to stop it and perhaps save ourselves in the process.

So you are for joining the EURO? The UK would make it stronger right?

No. The Euro was always a bad idea, but it exists now and there's no way to dismantle it without a catastrophe.

[ProfessorDavey]

We'll still be richer than we are now if we leave according to the treasury report, is fact.

Wrong.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564

Analysis which is entirely consistent with their earlier report which focussed on the long term but which included analysis indicating significant short term reduction in GDP compared to the situation where we leave, sufficient to tip the UK economy into negative growth territory.

[jakswan]

Wrong.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564

Analysis which is entirely consistent with their earlier report which focussed on the long term but which included analysis indicating significant short term reduction in GDP compared to the situation where we leave, sufficient to tip the UK economy into negative growth territory.

Please stop lying, the Treasury Report I was referring to predicted in GDP terms we'll be richer than we are now if we leave, that is a stone cold fact.

This new drivel by a man who is supposed to be protecting our economy is damaging our economy by talking it down so badly.

On the Sunday Politics the predictions from one of those reports that Davey is a fan boy of put it something like this:-

Growth in UK economy by 2030

Stay 42%
Leave with free trade deal 39%
Leave with no free trade deal 36%

What a cheap price for freedom!

[jakswan]

Why did you bring it up then?

If the Eurozone goes down the toilet it will drag us in with it no matter whether we are in the EU or not. We can stick two fingers up at the beleaguered people who live in the Eurozone or we can help try to stop it and perhaps save ourselves in the process.
No. The Euro was always a bad idea, but it exists now and there's no way to dismantle it without a catastrophe.

By you not arguing for us joining the EURO is you effectively sticking two fingers up at the beleaguered people who live in the Eurozone.