The result of the EU referendum:

[jeremyp]

Again USA you can find one of largest GDPs in the world yet see some of the worst poverty.

I really doubt that the poverty in the USA is anything like the poverty in rural Bangladesh.

[jeremyp]

Well unless the EU orders the government to pay it back.

Inland Revenue faces paying out tens of billions in tax refunds
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4c3fcd5a-4287-11e5-9abe-5b335da3a90e.html#axzz4AF0MhB6W

Can't read the article without paying the FT but surely it was the HMRC's fault if they overcharged companies for tax. Isn't the EU doing the right thing if they order the HMRC to pay back money it should never have collected?

[jakswan]

No, your point was the Vladish type drivel (except Vlad has been relatively sane on this thread by comparison to the nonsense you have been coming up with). The country will be richer if we stay in the EU. You can't refute it so you make up a hypothetical "evil big business" instead. Sorry, but you are really stretching on this one.

Sorry Jeremy but according to all of Daveys "credible sources" we will be richer than we are now if we leave the EU.

If you think Vlad is posting more coherent arguments than myself it might be time to consider that you are dogmatically clinging to a position and are immune to reason.

Has it ever occurred to you to ask who the shareholders are? A vast quantity of shares in large companies are owned by other companies who invest money on behalf of ordinary people. If you have a pension, an ISA, a unit trust, a savings account or any one of a number of other financial products, I guarantee you are indirectly one of the shareholders to which big business is a slave.
Nobody has claimed that

Not sure you finished this sentence, have another go.

If you think the only acceptable outcome is everybody getting richer, you might as well piss in a volcano. The best we can hope for is to maximise the number of people getting richer or the average wealth of each person. We can't prevent some people from getting poorer but, the richer the rest of us are, the more money there is available to support the unfortunate ones.

Which is fine and since we will be richer than we are now if we leave the EU, leaving the EU won't stop us achieving this goal.

[BeRational]

I am not sure how it can be calculated how rich we will be if we leave?

How can anyone know what trade deals we will have with Europe?

How can anyone be sure it will not cost us more?

[jeremyp]

Sorry Jeremy but according to all of Daveys "credible sources" we will be richer than we are now if we leave the EU.

But not as rich as if we stay in the EU. Do you want a 5% or a 10% pay rise?

If you think Vlad is posting more coherent arguments than myself it might be time to consider that you are dogmatically clinging to a position and are immune to reason.

No, I see you failing to acknowledge basic economics and ignoring facts.

Not sure you finished this sentence, have another go.

Only the full stop was missing. You said "If you think more GDP equates to everyone getting richer suggest you visit the USA."

I was referring to your implication that we claim more GDP equates to everyone getting richer.

By the way, you skipped the part of my post about how most of us are indirectly the shareholders to whom big business is allegedly (by you) enslaved.

Which is fine and since we will be richer than we are now if we leave the EU, leaving the EU won't stop us achieving this goal.

But if we stay in the EU there will be fewer really poor people than if we leave and the government will have more money available to help them.
You are trying to compare leaving the EU to a situation that will not be the case, namely that the economy doesn't grow at all. It's a fallacious comparison and you probably know it, but your dogmatic clinging overrides common sense.

[jeremyp]

I am not sure how it can be calculated how rich we will be if we leave?

Various institutions have made forecasts based on economic models of how the economy will behave if we leave and if we stay. So far the vast majority have said that we will be better off if we stay in.

How can anyone know what trade deals we will have with Europe?

We can be sure it will be worse than the one we have now because the one we have now is the best one possible.

How can anyone be sure it will not cost us more?

Nobody can be sure, but the predictions are not just wild guesses, unlike the stuff that Boris, Nigel and Michael are pulling out of their bottoms.

[L.A.]

I am not sure how it can be calculated how rich we will be if we leave?

How can anyone know what trade deals we will have with Europe?

How can anyone be sure it will not cost us more?

Economic models can never be perfect, there are always uncertain factors and unexpected events occurring in the world. The Remain campaign were quite wrong to quote such precise figures because they imply a level of precision that is just not possible.

Having said that, the Treasury economic model is infinitely better than anything that the Brexit camp are offering us.

No one could really argue that IF Britain got full access to the EU market (as now) AND didn't have to pay a membership fee AND didn't have to abide by EU regulations AND was able to negotiate good trade deals with other major trade blocks - then we would all be better off.

But that is a bit like saying that if you could just get six numbers right you would win the lottery.

It's just wishful thinking.

[jakswan]

But not as rich as if we stay in the EU. Do you want a 5% or a 10% pay rise?

If the 10 percent comes with strings attached like, my neighbours will be deciding how i live my life not my family, other members of my family will have to face a pay cut, I have to pay to be a member of a club i can't leave, etc. I'd be happy with 5 percent.

No, I see you failing to acknowledge basic economics and ignoring facts.

The basic economics is that we will be richer than we are now if we leave the EU in GDP terms, also save £175million a week, more democracy, have controlled immigration, less discrimination to non-eu immigrants, control our own laws.

You disagree which is fine but I'm not aware of any facts that you have presented that I have ignored. Still baffled by your attitude to UK jobs, outsourcing the NHS, and generally thinking our tax money going abroad results in us getting more money.

Only the full stop was missing. You said "If you think more GDP equates to everyone getting richer suggest you visit the USA."

I was referring to your implication that we claim more GDP equates to everyone getting richer.

When you said 'Fewer people will be reduced to poverty if we remain. That's a good thing.' that was the implication.

By the way, you skipped the part of my post about how most of us are indirectly the shareholders to whom big business is allegedly (by you) enslaved.
But if we stay in the EU there will be fewer really poor people than if we leave and the government will have more money available to help them.

Oh I think I see the point, i.e. more GDP equates to more government revenue which can help those in poverty. I don't believe that since it very much depends on predicting what GDP would be in 14 years time (a guess), what UK governments are elected and what is dictated by the EU.

You are trying to compare leaving the EU to a situation that will not be the case, namely that the economy doesn't grow at all. It's a fallacious comparison and you probably know it, but your dogmatic clinging overrides common sense.

Not at all, you agree that according to Davey's "credible sources" they all claim that we will be richer than we are now if we leave the EU?

The fallacious part is the spin, if you listened to the headlines it will be a massive recession, World War 3, and poverty on a scale where we will be unable to feed ourselves. As I recall the CBI forecast was by 2030 the UK economy will be 41% larger if we remain and 39% if we leave.

[jakswan]

Economic models can never be perfect, there are always uncertain factors and unexpected events occurring in the world. The Remain campaign were quite wrong to quote such precise figures because they imply a level of precision that is just not possible.

Yes those using these economic models suggested when we left the ERM similiair things were predicted.

Having said that, the Treasury economic model is infinitely better than anything that the Brexit camp are offering us.

No one could really argue that IF Britain got full access to the EU market (as now) AND didn't have to pay a membership fee AND didn't have to abide by EU regulations AND was able to negotiate good trade deals with other major trade blocks - then we would all be better off.

But that is a bit like saying that if you could just get six numbers right you would win the lottery.

It's just wishful thinking.

You can win the lottery with three numbers as I recall.

[L.A.]

Yes those using these economic models suggested when we left the ERM similiair things were predicted.

As I recall leaving the ERM was a pretty disastrous affair for our economy - it's probably a fair bet that leaving the EU will be many times worse.

You can win the lottery with three numbers as I recall.

If you regard that as winning, it's little wonder you are in favour of Brexit.

[Jack Knave]

I want them to live under a government which is upfront and provides the figures. For the fourth time of asking please provide them.

The only figures I have so far are from the millionaire Arron Banks and they are based on an average wage of 45,000.

1) Will the government pay the mortgages and rents of those made unemployed by Brexit or not?

2) Banks likens those who will lose their jobs to people fighting in the war,
Will the brexit government house them and job them like after the second world war.......or call them loafing spongers like after the first war?

3) Post war welfare state or the so called land fit for heroes which turned out to be nothing of the sort. What shall it be Jack.......what shall it be?

1) and 2) are assumptions. Where's your proof for this? And this then makes 3) irrelevant or a straw man.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Can anybody explain the leave campaigns referendum broadcast.
Will queues to see the doctor really disappear with the nastier wing of the Tory party in power?

[Jack Knave]

Can anybody explain the leave campaigns referendum broadcast.
Will queues to see the doctor really disappear with the nastier wing of the Tory party in power?

You're thinking in the short term. It is the long term that is the real prize here. Once we are rid ourselves of the EU we can then rid ourselves of the rotten politics of Westminster.

[ProfessorDavey]

You're thinking in the short term. It is the long term that is the real prize here. Once we are rid ourselves of the EU we can then rid ourselves of the rotten politics of Westminster.

By leaving the EU we will simply be centralising yet more power at Westminster - and we already have one of the most centralised governance of advanced democracies. We will lose the checks and balances that are afforded by being a member of the EU and that worries me greatly. Particularly as we have a system of 'democracy' where one party can gain 100% of the power with just 37% of the votes cast and 25% support of the electorate. And we have no democratically accountable second chamber.

[jakswan]

As I recall leaving the ERM was a pretty disastrous affair for our economy - it's probably a fair bet that leaving the EU will be many times worse.

What followed was a boom, what was predicted was doom by much the same people that now predict doom.

If you regard that as winning, it's little wonder you are in favour of Brexit.

I suggest your recollection is hazy maybe if you fix your memory Brexit will be your favourite.

[jeremyp]

If the 10 percent comes with strings attached like, my neighbours will be deciding how i live my life not my family

The 10% comes with the same strings attached as now. The 5% comes with different strings which may be worse or maybe better, you just don't know.

other members of my family will have to face a pay cut, I have to pay to be a member of a club i can't leave, etc. I'd be happy with 5 percent.

How do the other members of your family who you are condemning to pay cuts feel about you turning down a 10% pay rise in favour of a 5% one just so you don't have to listen to the neighbours telling you what length to cut your lawn to? And, by the way, you can't borrow their hedge trimmer anymore.

The basic economics is that we will be richer than we are now if we leave the EU in GDP terms,

You really don't have a clue.

also save £175million a week

Great, we'll all be nearly £3 a week better off except those of us who lose our jobs, but hey, your inward looking nationalism will be worth it. Well done.

more democracy,

It's been demonstrated on this thread that we already have democracy and, in some respect more now than we would without the EU.

have controlled immigration,

We already have controlled immigration. You try leaving this country and then getting back in again without your passport. The only open border we have with any other country is the one with the Republic of Ireland and that agreement predates the EU.

less discrimination to non-eu immigrants, control our own laws.

You want to make it easier for non EU immigrants to get in? That surprises me.

Still baffled by your attitude to UK jobs, outsourcing the NHS, and generally thinking our tax money going abroad results in us getting more money.

I'm not surprised you are baffled, you have continually demonstrated an inability to understand basic economics.

Let me tell you a fact: all this hand wringing about British jobs going to foreigners is just hypocritical nonsense. Nobody really cares about where our goods and services come from, they care about quality and price, mostly price. Look at all the stuff you own like your car, your TV, your computer, your clothes, your phone, your electrical goods. How much of it was made in Britain? You know why so little of the stuff we buy was made in Britain? It's because, faced with a choice between saving British jobs and having a better quality product for less money, almost all of us went for the latter option.

I don't believe that since it very much depends on predicting what GDP would be in 14 years time (a guess), what UK governments are elected and what is dictated by the EU.

And yet all the best "guesses" say it's better to remain in the EU. They aren't really guesses , by the way, they are economic models. They are more likely to be right than Boris "let me Godwin you" Johnson.

The fallacious part is the spin, if you listened to the headlines it will be a massive recession, World War 3

Yes, it would be like a new Nazi conquest, oh, no, wait, it was Boris who said that about staying in. Don't try to pin the spin thing on us.

As I recall the CBI forecast was by 2030 the UK economy will be 41% larger if we remain and 39% if we leave.

And that 3% equates to a lot of extra mouths fed.

[jeremyp]

What followed was a boom, what was predicted was doom by much the same people that now predict doom.

And that was in spite of staying in the EU - or perhaps because of.

The ERM was not the EU. The Euro is not the EU. I really don't know why any of you think either of them are relevant to the topic of leaving the EU.

[jakswan]

The 10% comes with the same strings attached as now. The 5% comes with different strings which may be worse or maybe better, you just don't know.

Have to make a judgement call then.

How do the other members of your family who you are condemning to pay cuts feel about you turning down a 10% pay rise in favour of a 5% one just so you don't have to listen to the neighbours telling you what length to cut your lawn to? And, by the way, you can't borrow their hedge trimmer anymore.

My family will vote on it, these neighbours sound horrible.

You really don't have a clue.

Wow another Vladish zinger from Jeremy.

Great, we'll all be nearly £3 a week better off except those of us who lose our jobs, but hey, your inward looking nationalism will be worth it. Well done.

We'll be better off then we are now if we leave, who is going to lose their jobs?

It's been demonstrated on this thread that we already have democracy and, in some respect more now than we would without the EU.

You and Davey have demonstrated no such thing, I have outlined how the EU undermines UK democracy and you both failed to counter the argument.

We already have controlled immigration. You try leaving this country and then getting back in again without your passport. The only open border we have with any other country is the one with the Republic of Ireland and that agreement predates the EU.

You know there are some low blows in this debate, I don't think Johnson has covered himself in glory and I think Osborne's spin is dishonest, the real low point is the obfuscation by Bremainers on not understanding the difference between controlled immigration and controlled borders. I'll explain it to you once again if you like but thought I'd expose your dishonesty first.

You want to make it easier for non EU immigrants to get in? That surprises me.

Why because I disagree with you I'm one the "bad guys"?

I'm not surprised you are baffled, you have continually demonstrated an inability to understand basic economics.

There is economics and Jerenomiocs, if you follow Jerenomics you give money away to make money.

Let me tell you a fact: all this hand wringing about British jobs going to foreigners is just hypocritical nonsense. Nobody really cares about where our goods and services come from, they care about quality and price, mostly price. Look at all the stuff you own like your car, your TV, your computer, your clothes, your phone, your electrical goods. How much of it was made in Britain? You know why so little of the stuff we buy was made in Britain? It's because, faced with a choice between saving British jobs and having a better quality product for less money, almost all of us went for the latter option.

I know this is going to shock you but knowing one fact doesn't mean one world view is correct. Politics and people are complex just because I might chose to not donate everything to a cause doesn't mean I don't value the cause at all. Some people buy local produce that is more expensive than that shipped in from further away, they also might not do that if the price becomes too prohibitive.

Many family and friends will be affected by the closure of Port Talbot steelworks, I know you see their jobs as expendable, you would prefer to look after Chinese workers because that means you can buy cheaper products, not all of us feel the same way.

And yet all the best "guesses" say it's better to remain in the EU. They aren't really guesses , by the way, they are economic models. They are more likely to be right than Boris "let me Godwin you" Johnson.

The economic models, which have been really unreliable or just plain wrong in the past suggest we would be slightly betteroff if we stay rather then go. Clearly if its more money for Jeremy we know which way Jeremy will go but some of us are not just ruled by money.

Yes, it would be like a new Nazi conquest, oh, no, wait, it was Boris who said that about staying in. Don't try to pin the spin thing on us.

Oh let me be clear, spin has been applied from both sides, I can see that, I don't go running after every dog whistle, do you?

And that 3% equates to a lot of extra mouths fed.

I know its tricky for you but the figures I cited were 39% and 41%, did you mean 2%?

[ProfessorDavey]

You and Davey have demonstrated no such thing, I have outlined how the EU undermines UK democracy and you both failed to counter the argument.

You have made a range of rather fanciful claims about the effect of the EU on us, mostly completely wrong. The most recent being the issue of compound interest on overpaid VAT in which the EUCJ has specifically ruled that under EU law there is no right to compound interest (in other words ruling in favour of the government) while it is the UK courts that have ruled against the government considering that under UK law (which is under the control of the UK government) there is a right to compound interest.

So Jeremy and I disagree with you - we tend to make comments based on facts, not on myth - you are going to get one hell of a shock if we Brexit and you discover all those 'bad' things you blame on the EU are actually good old fashioned, home grown, UK problems.

There is economics and Jerenomiocs, if you follow Jerenomics you give money away to make money.

It is called investment - ever heard of that Jaks. So for every £1 we 'invest' in the EU we get back about £10 in increased GDP, with all the benefits that provides such as more jobs, better pay, more tax income, greater ability to spend on public services etc etc.

Sound like sound economics and a smart move to invest that £1 to earn £10.

[L.A.]

The ERM was not the EU. The Euro is not the EU. I really don't know why any of you think either of them are relevant to the topic of leaving the EU.

I think it is relevant in as much as it demonstrates how devastating these major 'perturbations' can be to our economy and how the only winners are the speculators.

There is no doubt that trillions of pounds would be electronically shifted around the world following a Brexit vote. A few people would make a lot of money and we would be the losers.

[jeremyp]

You and Davey have demonstrated no such thing, I have outlined how the EU undermines UK democracy and you both failed to counter the argument.

You mean you made claims about the nasty EU that could not be backed up by facts.

You know there are some low blows in this debate, I don't think Johnson has covered himself in glory and I think Osborne's spin is dishonest

I agree there have been low blows on both sides, but the Leave campaign seems to have nothing but low blows. The Remain campaign does at least have some real arguments on its side.

the real low point is the obfuscation by Bremainers on not understanding the difference between controlled immigration and controlled borders.

Immigration into this country is controlled and our borders are controlled, except for the one with the Republic of Ireland and that is open thanks to a bilateral deal with the RoI, not the EU.

There is economics and Jerenomiocs, if you follow Jerenomics you give money away to make money.

This is all you really need to show that my claim you don't understand basic economics is true. As PD points out, this is a well established principle called "investment". Take your pension: you give people money and they make you money.

Many family and friends will be affected by the closure of Port Talbot steelworks, I know you see their jobs as expendable, you would prefer to look after Chinese workers because that means you can buy cheaper products, not all of us feel the same way.

Several points here:

Firstly, all jobs are expendable. Your job is expendable, my my job is expendable. In fact, people who work in my industry are constantly under threat from offshore programmers.

Secondly, nobody goes out to "prefer Chinese workers", they go out to buy a car or a phone and the one that they like the best at the price they can afford happens to have been made in China. Don't paint me as the bad guy for laying out honestly what almost everybody does (except you, apparently, but I don't really believe that).

I'm very sorry for the Port Talbot steel workers and I have no problem with the government and the EU giving them money (part of which comes from my taxes and your taxes) to survive and get back on their feet, but I'd much rather they found something more positive to do than make steel that nobody wants to buy.

The economic models, which have been really unreliable or just plain wrong in the past suggest we would be slightly betteroff if we stay rather then go. Clearly if its more money for Jeremy we know which way Jeremy will go but some of us are not just ruled by money.

No, mostly they suggest we will be quite a bit better off. The report from the IFS said £4000 per family per year. Leavers have suggested that the figure might be significantly lower than that at "only" £2,000 per family per year, as if £2,000 is not a big deal and could easily be lost down the back of the sofa.

[Nearly Sane]

Substantial tightening of the odds in last few days. Now 3/1 on to stay

[jakswan]

You mean you made claims about the nasty EU that could not be backed up by facts.

No I explained in detail how the EU undermines British democracy.

I agree there have been low blows on both sides, but the Leave campaign seems to have nothing but low blows. The Remain campaign does at least have some real arguments on its side.

Oh come on Jeremy you honestly believe there is no legitimate argument for leaving?

Immigration into this country is controlled and our borders are controlled, except for the one with the Republic of Ireland and that is open thanks to a bilateral deal with the RoI, not the EU.

If someone wants to enter the UK from the EU, their passport must be checked however we do not have the right to refuse them entry on economic grounds. We can refuse to allow Indian coders but can't refuse Spanish ones. Heck we might need coders but I'd prefer the best ones be allowed entry, not discriminate against the Indian ones simply because they are not European.

This is all you really need to show that my claim you don't understand basic economics is true. As PD points out, this is a well established principle called "investment". Take your pension: you give people money and they make you money.

This refers to outsourcing the NHS to the most efficient parts of the EU where you argued that NHS money leaving to fund operations abroad would come back. Davey is citing the £1 - £10 figures which if fanciful nonsense.

Several points here:

Firstly, all jobs are expendable. Your job is expendable, my my job is expendable. In fact, people who work in my industry are constantly under threat from offshore programmers.

Define expendable:-
of relatively little significance, and therefore able to be abandoned or destroyed.

So peoples livelihoods are of little significance?

Secondly, nobody goes out to "prefer Chinese workers", they go out to buy a car or a phone and the one that they like the best at the price they can afford happens to have been made in China. Don't paint me as the bad guy for laying out honestly what almost everybody does (except you, apparently, but I don't really believe that).

I never claimed I didn't do that my point was its not the black and white issue you presented.

I'm very sorry for the Port Talbot steel workers and I have no problem with the government and the EU giving them money (part of which comes from my taxes and your taxes) to survive and get back on their feet, but I'd much rather they found something more positive to do than make steel that nobody wants to buy.

Again its not as simple as that people want to buy the steel but due to over supply the price has been driven down. There are too many people working in steel across the world, someone has to lose out, I'd prefer our government take action to ensure that the job losses don't entirely fall in the UK. You on the other hand see UK jobs as expendable apparently.

No, mostly they suggest we will be quite a bit better off. The report from the IFS said £4000 per family per year. Leavers have suggested that the figure might be significantly lower than that at "only" £2,000 per family per year, as if £2,000 is not a big deal and could easily be lost down the back of the sofa.

As I recall the IFS claimed that would be £4,000 per household better of in GDP terms, not per family, not household income. I don't think GDP per household is a widely used stat merely created so Bremaiers can spout it.

[Shaker]

Latest polls show Brexit ahead: http://goo.gl/n16nb8

[Rhiannon]

We are a nation of utter dipsticks.