The result of the EU referendum:

[BeRational]

Because they can't - EU migrant are not entitled to the same benefits as UK citizens. They can't claim benefits for 3 months and even after that must be either in work, seeking to work (with a realistic chance of getting a job) or alternatively they must be able to demonstrate they have enough money to live without resorting to benefits.

What happens if they just turn up anyway?

Can we deport them, or do we have to support them?

What if they are ill etc, do we have to treat them (I would think so).

[ProfessorDavey]

What happens if they just turn up anyway?

Can we deport them, or do we have to support them?

What if they are ill etc, do we have to treat them (I would think so).

We don't have to provide them with benefits unless they are working or actively looking for work, and then only once they have been here for a while.

Sure they are entitled to health care, but that's no different to us being entitled to healthcare if we are in another EU country. Indeed there was an item on the radio this morning where they were interviewing a bunch of Brit ex-pats in Spain and they were praising the Spanish health system, that they could access, and expressing concern about what would happen if we left.

And don't forget that EU migrants contribute much more in taxation than they take in benefits and or cost public services, and also that the typical demographic of someone coming to the UK from other EU countries is that they are coming to work, are not of an age where they are likely to be a burden on the NHS etc. That is rather different to the demographic of Brits in Spain I would imagine.

[ProfessorDavey]

What happens if they just turn up anyway?

Can we deport them, or do we have to support them?

What if they are ill etc, do we have to treat them (I would think so).

The 'free movement' right is a right to live and work, not a right to be supported by the state.

[BeRational]

We don't have to provide them with benefits unless they are working or actively looking for work, and then only once they have been here for a while.

Sure they are entitled to health care, but that's no different to us being entitled to healthcare if we are in another EU country. Indeed there was an item on the radio this morning where they were interviewing a bunch of Brit ex-pats in Spain and they were praising the Spanish health system, that they could access, and expressing concern about what would happen if we left.

And don't forget that EU migrants contribute much more in taxation than they take in benefits and or cost public services, and also that the typical demographic of someone coming to the UK from other EU countries is that they are coming to work, are not of an age where they are likely to be a burden on the NHS etc. That is rather different to the demographic of Brits in Spain I would imagine.

Don't get me wrong, I am in favour of remaining because of all the points you have made which I thank you.
I think the biggest attraction for the exit vote, will be the ability to control immigration.

I design computer systems, and test it with silly ridiculous values to make sure the system has an answer.

So, if you example the entire population of Poland decided one day to all move to England, what would stop them?

I know our infrastructure and housing and health could not cope, but I don't care about the outcome. I am just asking if the system has a fail safe that kicks in before it falls apart?

[BeRational]

The 'free movement' right is a right to live and work, not a right to be supported by the state.

Agreed, but what stops it happening anyway.

I do not care what it is supposed to be for, I am asking what stops people just coming anyway.

This is a massive vote winner for the exit in my view.

[ProfessorDavey]

So, if you example the entire population of Poland decided one day to all move to England, what would stop them?

What would stop them - the cost of living.

If you aren't working then you can't claim benefits so you'd have to have enough independent wealth to be able to afford to live in the UK without working. And given that the cost of living is low in Poland, but high in the UK there won't be many who would be able to afford to do that - so economics prevails. I'm not sure of the figures but I doubt there are many retired and/or deliberately non working Poles in the UK.

But actually if they have enough independent wealth to be able to live in the UK, without working and without relying on benefits, why wouldn't we want them here. They would be contributing to the UK economy by spending their independent wealth here. We don't seem to stop independently wealthy Americans, or Russians or Chinese coming and living here and spending their fortunes here and none of those are in the EU - why would it be different for EU nationals.

[BeRational]

What would stop them - the cost of living.

If you aren't working then you can't claim benefits so you'd have to have enough independent wealth to be able to afford to live in the UK without working. And given that the cost of living is low in Poland, but high in the UK there won't be many who would be able to afford to do that - so economics prevails. I'm not sure of the figures but I doubt there are many retired and/or deliberately non working Poles in the UK.

But actually if they have enough independent wealth to be able to live in the UK, without working and without relying on benefits, why wouldn't we want them here. They would be contributing to the UK economy by spending their independent wealth here. We don't seem to stop independently wealthy Americans, or Russians or Chinese coming and living here and spending their fortunes here and none of those are in the EU - why would it be different for EU nationals.

You are being reasonable, and I am being completely unreasonable (as I am with my systems in destruction tests).

Again I am testing with silly numbers.

So 20 million people arrive, they have no money , no means of working (and for this test they do not care)

Do we let them starve?
Do we round them up and ship them off?

If not, then we have to house and feed them. The system only stops people coming when the country is on its knees.

This seems like a bad system, and one to which the exit people can play to. The immigration non system is floored.

I could pose the same question about the USA. What if everyone wanted to live in Florida from the US, and I guess there is nothing to stop that happening other than system failure.

It's the system overload or failure that I usually try to prevent, but it seems that in this and the US case, there is no protection, and things just get very bad to the point where people leave because things get bad.

[jeremyp]

I think the biggest attraction for the exit vote, will be the ability to control immigration.

Yes it is but they have been lied to about that. If we leave the EU, our control over immigration will not change. We'll have to do a trade deal with the EU and it will have to include free movement of labour, not only because the other member states will insist on it, but because many British citizens work in rest of the EU and want to remain in their jobs.

So, if you example the entire population of Poland decided one day to all move to England, what would stop them?

Logistics.

[BeRational]

Yes it is but they have been lied to about that. If we leave the EU, our control over immigration will not change. We'll have to do a trade deal with the EU and it will have to include free movement of labour, not only because the other member states will insist on it, but because many British citizens work in rest of the EU and want to remain in their jobs.
Logistics.

I agree.

With logistics again, they come in a steady constant stream to the point of overload.
Again the logistics only stops the flow once it is overloaded and failed. I like to design things that cope before destruction.

To make in none racist, lets assume the whole of the UK want to move to the south of France.

[ProfessorDavey]

Again I am testing with silly number.

So 20 million people arrive, they have no money , no means of working.

Do we let them starve?
Do we round them up and ship them off?

But it isn't going to happen. Why would it - why would  millions of people up and leave their country to go somewhere else where they can't survive. They might if they were fleeing a war zone but that is a different matter.

You could say the same but within the UK - there is nothing in principle to stop the 20 million people who live in London and the South East all upping sticks and moving to north west Scotland tomorrow. If they did the north west of Scotland clearly couldn't cope and we'd be in melt down. There is nothing that the UK government could do to prevent this, as it doesn't have any mechanisms to control migration within the UK.

What stops it happening is economics and social ties and that is exact the same (but to a much, much greater extent) what stops vast numbers of people without means of support arriving from other EU countries to the UK. So if you aren't worried about it in the context of intra-UK migration then you certainly shouldn't worry from other EU countries.

[BeRational]

But it isn't going to happen. Why would it - why would  millions of people up and leave their country to go somewhere else where they can't survive. They might if they were fleeing a war zone but that is a different matter.

You could say the same but within the UK - there is nothing in principle to stop the 20 million people who live in London and the South East all upping sticks and moving to north west Scotland tomorrow. If they did the north west of Scotland clearly couldn't cope and we'd be in melt down. There is nothing that the UK government could do to prevent this, as it doesn't have any mechanisms to control migration within the UK.

What stops it happening is economics and social ties and that is exact the same (but to a much, much greater extent) what stops vast numbers of people without means of support arriving from other EU countries to the UK. So if you aren't worried about it in the context of intra-UK migration then you certainly shouldn't worry from other EU countries.

I am not particularly worried, but from the people I speak to that will vote leave, this is a major point to them.

This topic could swing it, especially perhaps with older people.

I saw Sean Lock make a joke saying that the vote should be open to 16 year olds as it is their future. Also, that people over 70 should NOT be allowed to vote as its not their future.

[ProfessorDavey]

To make in none racist, lets assume the whole of the UK want to move to the south of France.

Why complicate it with cross border migration - see my example. Given the ease of resettling where the culture ids broadly the same and the language is the same (and you can claim benefits) surely the most likely scenario isn't the whole of the UK wanting to move to the south of France, but the whole of the UK deciding to move to one small part of the UK (e.g. north west Scotland).

If this seems implausible and not something you worry about, then you should certainly not worry about a cross border 20 million migration.

[ProfessorDavey]

I am not particularly worried, but from the people I speak to that will vote leave, this is a major point to them.

This topic could swing it, especially perhaps with older people.

Indeed - but this is classic dog whistle project fear stuff of the worst kind. The reality is we won't suddenly be facing millions and millions of additional migrants arriving if we stay, and also because migration (and its control) is effectively based on economics, even if we leave you can bet your bottom dollar that migration numbers will hardly change and that the kind of people who end up here now will still end up here after Brexit - you know the people who clean your hospital, work in your care homes, pick fruit and veg (at one end of the spectrum) and highly trained nurser, doctors, academics etc at the other. Why, because we need them.

[Harrowby Hall]

To make in none racist, lets assume the whole of the UK want to move to the south of France.

Speaking as someone who is currently in the south west of France, it has been pissing down with rain for five days, and, on the first day of June it is necessary to use heating systems and electric blankets. The whole of the UK would say "we didn't think this is what it would be like" and bugger back home.

Perhaps a more important question is why would everybody in the UK come here? The same is true of Poland - why would the whole of Poland come to the UK? This is just an unrealistic scare put around by the Brexiters to wind up their potential supporters.

But then, why is the "remain" portion of the political establishment not providing information as cogent and as clear as that we are seeing from Professor Davey on this forum?

[ProfessorDavey]

I am not particularly worried, but from the people I speak to that will vote leave, this is a major point to them.

This topic could swing it, especially perhaps with older people.

The 'let's control our borders' lot often hold up Australia and Canada as fantastic examples of countries that control their migration clearly suggesting that they'd never allow the levels of net migration that we see in 'uncontrolled' UK.

Bit of a problem for them - net migration in both Australia and Canada per 1,000 population is about twice that of the UK.

[BeRational]

The 'let's control our borders' lot often hold up Australia and Canada as fantastic examples of countries that control their migration clearly suggesting that they'd never allow the levels of net migration that we see in 'uncontrolled' UK.

Bit of a problem for them - net migration in both Australia and Canada per 1,000 population is about twice that of the UK.

Good points, that I will use next time.

[Shaker]

Speaking as someone who is currently in the south west of France, it has been pissing down with rain for five days, and, on the first day of June it is necessary to use heating systems and electric blankets. The whole of the UK would say "we didn't think this is what it would be like" and bugger back home.

... only to find it exactly the same there.

[wigginhall]

The 'let's control our borders' lot often hold up Australia and Canada as fantastic examples of countries that control their migration clearly suggesting that they'd never allow the levels of net migration that we see in 'uncontrolled' UK.

Bit of a problem for them - net migration in both Australia and Canada per 1,000 population is about twice that of the UK.

Is that correct?  Wow, I bet Leave never mention that.   I looked at Wiki, which has Australia at 5.65, Canada, 5.66,  Switzerland, 4.74, Norway, 7.25, and UK, 2.54.   

I think I'm going to check these figures. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_net_migration_rate

[ProfessorDavey]

Is that correct?  Wow, I bet Leave never mention that.   I looked at Wiki, which has Australia at 5.65, Canada, 5.66,  Switzerland, 4.74, Norway, 7.25, and UK, 2.54.   

I think I'm going to check these figures. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_net_migration_rate

Full details here:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2112rank.html

[wigginhall]

Well, I'm amazed, as Australia is always being touted as having found the solution to migration, with their points system, and so on.   But they have double the rate as the UK.  Norway has triple our rate.   

[wigginhall]

I don't get this, as the net migration figure for the last year is 300, 000, isn't it?  That is 0.5% of 60 million.   I must be doing something wrong.

[Rhiannon]

Well, I'm amazed, as Australia is always being touted as having found the solution to migration, with their points system, and so on.   But they have double the rate as the UK.  Norway has triple our rate.

I'm assuming that these countries have smallish populations and skills shortages, so they recruit from abroad - doctors, nurses, teachers etc.

Eta just read exactly this on the Beeb - point-based systems are designed to increase migration, of the 'right kind'.

[ProfessorDavey]

I don't get this, as the net migration figure for the last year is 300, 000, isn't it?  That is 0.5% of 60 million.   I must be doing something wrong.

Not sure what methodology they are using, but presumably it is consistent. But even if the UK figure was 5 per 1000 it would still be smaller than both Australia or Canada. And indeed many of the other countries held up by Brexit as shining examples outside of the EU, e.g. Norway, Iceland and Switzerland also have net migration at similar levels again.

[ProfessorDavey]

point-based systems are designed to increase migration, of the 'right kind'.

But isn't 'of the right kind' merely code for people to fill jobs we can't currently fill. So if we can't get enough plumbers, or nurses or care home workers, or doctors, or hospital cleaners any points based system will still allow those vacancies to be filled from abroad.

[Rhiannon]

But isn't 'of the right kind' merely code for people to fill jobs we can't currently fill. So if we can't get enough plumbers, or nurses or care home workers, or doctors, or hospital cleaners any points based system will still allow those vacancies to be filled from abroad.

Not something I'll quibble with. But the idea that a points system is designed to keep people out is a nonsense. It isn't.