The result of the EU referendum:

[Jack Knave]

While nothing in life is certain (except death and taxes), the one thing we can be pretty certain of is that on June 24, Michael Gove won't wave his magic wand and reveal a pile of free trade agreements for every country in the world (or probably any).

What is likely to happen in the event of a Brexit vote, is that after a lot hard negotiation we will eventually be offered a deal with the EU similar to Switzerland and Norway, and like Switzerland and Norway, we would have to accept EU migrants. It will be a 'take it or leave it deal' - Germany might have a vested interest in selling us cars, but they are not in any position to over-ride the vote of the other members.

So, we would have to make another decision, whether to accept a deal that looks very much like what we currently have or make a total split with Europe. Obviously that would allow us to make all kinds of bizarre laws without interference from those appalling foreigners, but we wouldn't have free access to the EU market - and that would be a major problem for much of our industry and in particular those foreign companies who have established plants in this country specifically to serve the EU market.

So we actually have three options:

1/ We Remain.

2/ we negotiate a deal similar to Switzerland and Norway which would still give us access to the EU market but would allow EU migration (and probably wouldn't be free, those Brussels Eurocrats would likely demand an 'administration' fee)

3/ We go it alone - which might appeal to some, but it would mean that Britain was not a good manufacturing base for companies serving to the EU market. There would be no new investment and existing companies would downsize or shut-down. Very bad news  for the economy and employment.

Your options are correct but your scenarios for those option, particularly the Brexit one, is all wrong as I have explained many times here.

[L.A.]

Your options are correct but your scenarios for those option, particularly the Brexit one, is all wrong as I have explained many times here.

No Brexitor has explained how not having full and free access to the EU market could fail to have a very detrimental effect on our economy. As I have pointed out on numerous occasions, companies who export to the EU are likely to be very badly affected and many will probably relocate or scale back their UK operations.

[Jack Knave]

And the EU parliament and council of ministers are accountable to the EU electorate - what's your point.

To suggest the EU parliament is somehow undemocratic or unaccountable because it isn't solely accountable to UK voters is the equivalent of claiming that the UK parliament is somehow undemocratic or unaccountable because it isn't solely accountable to Scottish voters. A non-sense argument.

And, of course, it goes without saying that there are plenty of government ministers (now and in the past) who are accountable to the UK electorate whatsoever, as they are in the HoLs.

The EP have no executive powers and amounts to nothing more than an assembly.

[Nearly Sane]

And another article that makes many good points


http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/05/27/dear-friends-this-is-why-i-will-vote-remain-in-the-referendum/

[Jack Knave]

No Brexitor has explained how not having full and free access to the EU market could fail to have a very detrimental effect on our economy. As I have pointed out on numerous occasions, companies who export to the EU are likely to be very badly affected and many will probably relocate or scale back their UK operations.

There's an assumption in there that is wrong. We will have access to the EU market place and to the rest of the world. So win-win. 

[L.A.]

There's an assumption in there that is wrong. We will have access to the EU market place and to the rest of the world. So win-win. 

No doubt we will have 'access' - but open borders, tariff-free? That seems unlikely in the extreme.

P.S. some good points in NS's link

[jeremyp]

The UK government is accountable to the UK electorate,granted it might not be perfect.

The EU is accountable to the people of Europe. Granted, it might not be perfect.

[jeremyp]

I've explained to you why I think the EU is undemocratic

An explanation founded on misunderstanding as I recall.

what you would expect from someone who is dogmatic and evangelical.

I'd expect exactly what we are getting from you.

[jakswan]

I have no intention of listening through a large number of Today programs to find the exact broadcast, but he expresses much the same sentiments here:
https://next.ft.com/content/d0e88d1a-0624-11e6-9b51-0fb5e65703ce

I draw your attention to the paragraph:

He said Britain would forge its own deal with the EU, but said that a continent-wide free-trade area — embracing a wide range of bilateral deals — would “be the core of our new arrangement”.

What deal is it he is talking about, if he is not going to produce it by waving a magic wand perhaps you would like to explain how this near miraculous event is going to occur?

So he didn't say he'd produce trade agreements out of thin air but that they would negotiated.

It's perfectly reasonable to describe it as a total split as we would no longer have any part in EU institutions or have the same free access to the EU market as EU members. I'm sure that the USA would consider that they had a total split with Britain in 1783 but we still trade with them!

You were describing it as total split in the context of trade.

Whatever adjectives anyone might choose to describe your tone- you simply dismiss the arguments out of hand as alarmist rather than answering them:

No I have made many posts on this thread, given you hearing Gove say one thing but understanding he meant something entirely different I'd brush up on your comprehension skills if I were you.

This link seems to spell things out fairly clearly:

https://fullfact.org/europe/tariffs-and-barriers-trade-between-britain-and-eu/

I draw your attention the the paragraph:

"Trade with Europe could be lower if we left

The bold claim that "all the trade would continue" with the EU is speculative. The only way to know for sure is to leave.

Who are quoting there, if you think its me you are a liar.

[jakswan]

An explanation founded on misunderstanding as I recall.

NO as I recall neither you or Davey responded to that part of the post.

[ProfessorDavey]

NO as I recall neither you or Davey responded to that part of the post.

On the contrary - I have very clearly explained why there is no more reason to consider the EU undemocratic compared to the UK. You on the other hand have provided nothing more than a hand waiving assertion based on a bizarre notion that for the EU to be democratic is must be solely accountable to the UK electorate, rather than (obviously) the EU electorate. Your argument is no more coherent than claiming that the UK government is undemocratic as there are MPs who aren't accountable to the London electorate, or the Scottish electorate etc.

[Gonnagle]

Dear Lapsed,

Remember you were saying, as long as she stay north of the border

http://martini.heraldscotland.com/news/14536264.Scotland_thrust_to_centre_of_EU_debate_as_Sturgeon_agrees_to_TV_head_to_head_debate/?ref=rss

I predict that she will give Boris such a kicking that he will be greetin! for his Mammy

Gonnagle.

[L.A.]

Dear Lapsed,

Remember you were saying, as long as she stay north of the border

http://martini.heraldscotland.com/news/14536264.Scotland_thrust_to_centre_of_EU_debate_as_Sturgeon_agrees_to_TV_head_to_head_debate/?ref=rss

I predict that she will give Boris such a kicking that he will be greetin! for his Mammy

Gonnagle.

I can't imagine how that one will go, but it should certainly be entertaining - Will she be allowed to use head-buts?

[Gonnagle]

Dear Lapsed,

Will she be allowed to use head-buts?

Oh yes! Watch out for the true west of Scotland head butts, I am no fan of the SNP but that little woman The little smile followed by the highly intelligent very sarcastic reply, yes it will be very entertaining

Gonnagle.

[L.A.]

Dear Lapsed,

Oh yes! Watch out for the true west of Scotland head butts, I am no fan of the SNP but that little woman The little smile followed by the highly intelligent very sarcastic reply, yes it will be very entertaining

Gonnagle.

No, I'm no fan of the SNP, but if she can cut through all the bluster and buffoonery and pin him down on the issues, she'll get a round of applause from me.

[ProfessorDavey]

Dear Lapsed,

Oh yes! Watch out for the true west of Scotland head butts, I am no fan of the SNP but that little woman The little smile followed by the highly intelligent very sarcastic reply, yes it will be very entertaining

Gonnagle.

Given the animosity towards the SNP amongst many south of the border, I'm a bit worried about this development. Just look at the effect that the tories campaigning at the general election on the idea that electing Miliband in a minority would give the SNP the balance of power.

So I'm concerned that pitting Sturgeon against Johnson will end up backfiring, for however good a debater Sturgeon might be it is far too easy for swathes of the non Scottish electorate to look at her and conclude that she isn't actually bothered about the UK (and by inference them) anyhow and therefore side with Johnson.

I'd much prefer an 'all the leaders' event in which the leaders of all the credible UK parties (therefore not UKIP) are on a single platform all giving the same message that we should remain, albeit their reasons will be nuanced, so for Cameron about the strong economy, for Lucas the environment, for Farron extension of the equality agenda, for Corbyn protection of workers rights and for Wood and Sturgeon support for remote communities.

It would also be a great contrast with the unholy triumvirate of Farage, Gove and Johnson - white, male, middle aged right wing and totally out of touch with ordinary people.

We say a kind of 'leaders' light yesterday with Cameron, Farron, Bennet and Harman but this really isn't the full picture. If the leaders fail to take this opportunity and Brexit win, well they've only got themselves to blame.

[L.A.]

So I'm concerned that pitting Sturgeon against Johnson will end up backfiring, for however good a debater Sturgeon might be it is far too easy for swathes of the non Scottish electorate to look at her and conclude that she isn't actually bothered about the UK (and by inference them) anyhow and therefore side with Johnson.

That was one of my concerns; it all depends how she handles the debate. If she can focus of some of the core arguments and expose Boris for the fraud that he is, she might have a positive impact. If she lets him get away with stuff and starts rambling about social issues it won't go well.

[Gonnagle]

Dear Prof,

Given the animosity towards the SNP amongst many south of the border, I'm a bit worried about this development.

Yes that is a real concern, but I do remember a UKIP supporter being interviewed after a debate she and Farage were involved in, he was very complimentary regarding Sturgeon, if she can sway a UKIP supporter, hopefully she can deflect the Independence question and focus on the EU referendum, it will be a very interesting and entertaining debate.

Gonnagle.

[jakswan]

Given the animosity towards the SNP amongst many south of the border, I'm a bit worried about this development. Just look at the effect that the tories campaigning at the general election on the idea that electing Miliband in a minority would give the SNP the balance of power.

So I'm concerned that pitting Sturgeon against Johnson will end up backfiring, for however good a debater Sturgeon might be it is far too easy for swathes of the non Scottish electorate to look at her and conclude that she isn't actually bothered about the UK (and by inference them) anyhow and therefore side with Johnson.

I'd much prefer an 'all the leaders' event in which the leaders of all the credible UK parties (therefore not UKIP) are on a single platform all giving the same message that we should remain, albeit their reasons will be nuanced, so for Cameron about the strong economy, for Lucas the environment, for Farron extension of the equality agenda, for Corbyn protection of workers rights and for Wood and Sturgeon support for remote communities.

It would also be a great contrast with the unholy triumvirate of Farage, Gove and Johnson - white, male, middle aged right wing and totally out of touch with ordinary people.

We say a kind of 'leaders' light yesterday with Cameron, Farron, Bennet and Harman but this really isn't the full picture. If the leaders fail to take this opportunity and Brexit win, well they've only got themselves to blame.

Wow a post from Davey I more or less agree with. It does depend how Sturgeon plays it, if she is seen as threatening rUK with Scoxit if Brexit then it could backfire badly.

[Jack Knave]

No doubt we will have 'access' - but open borders, tariff-free? That seems unlikely in the extreme.

P.S. some good points in NS's link

If the negotiations are done correctly, say by Farage and co., then we will have no open borders. As for tariffs if they apply them we can too and we can go and trade with the rest of the world for the things that are too expensive from the EU.

But you are missing out one of our trump cards. That our leaving leaves a £15 billion or so hole in their books and if they make trade with them harder for us then our £60 billion trade excess with them will be reduced, so they could be missing say £35 billion from their economy. This for a stagnate one and who's monetary project is now a dead albatross around their necks isn't something they can absorb. Either they make the remaining members pay up for the £15 billion short fall or they cut the hand-outs to the poorer, scrounging members. Which ever way things get tougher for them.

Add to this that many in the EU community agree with us about the undemocratic, unaccountable technocrats, and all the other corruption things about the EU, then there will be calls, and pressure, for radical change in the EU, or country citizens will be demanding their own referendums. Which ever way here as well the EU will be in turmoil and have little spirit to act the top dogs to teach us a lesson. They will more likely try to get our negotiations smoothly through so they can concentrate on getting their own house in order.

Everything you and your fellow pro-EUers say is based on the past strength of the EU of a bygone age where they could wield a mighty hand. They are weaker and weakening by the day and they know it. Yes they will fight like mad dogs to the bitter end but they will fail. And they will fail because their approach is out of date and of 'yesterday'.   

[Jack Knave]

The EU is accountable to the people of Europe. Granted, it might not be perfect.

Unaccountable doesn't even scratch the surface. The EU is a totalitarian state.

[Jack Knave]

Dear Lapsed,

Oh yes! Watch out for the true west of Scotland head butts, I am no fan of the SNP but that little woman The little smile followed by the highly intelligent very sarcastic reply, yes it will be very entertaining

Gonnagle.

I hear she's good at the Glasgow kiss!!!   

[Gonnagle]

Dear Jack,

I hear she's good at the Glasgow kiss!!!   

The Maryhill nod, yes but it will be done with finesse I am looking forward to the debate.

Although as a Scot who wants nothing to do with Independence, I will be looking for any reference, the good lady will need to be on her toes, at her best.

Gonnagle.

[L.A.]

Dear Prof,

Yes that is a real concern, but I do remember a UKIP supporter being interviewed after a debate she and Farage were involved in, he was very complimentary regarding Sturgeon, if she can sway a UKIP supporter, hopefully she can deflect the Independence question and focus on the EU referendum, it will be a very interesting and entertaining debate.

Gonnagle.

Boris is vulnerable, he talks rot then tries to laugh it off with affable buffoonery. If she can deal with that she might get somewhere.

[Nearly Sane]

Boris is vulnerable, he talks rot then tries to laugh it off with affable buffoonery. If she can deal with that she might get somewhere.

And yet he gets away with it. In a formal debate structure with multiple speakers as will be the case, it's quite difficult to pin people down without looking aggressive. Boris' approval ratings are better than most in this area.


It's much easier for members of the public to score hits because they cannot really be seen as bullies. I'm glad Gonzo is looking forward to it as I'm dreading another the economy will disappear vs immigrants will eat your pet exchange. I have no real confidence on what the vote is likely to be, feels too close to call but I found myself checking out how to get Irish citizenship the other day.