The result of the EU referendum:

[Nearly Sane]

Slight drifting in the Leave odds to 13/5, presumably on the registration issue and numbers.

[Nearly Sane]

Points to Michael Gove on saying the right thing about the registration problem, Gerald Howarth on the other hand, is a dangerous buffoon.

[ProfessorDavey]

I'm for freedom of movement within a country.

And of course it isn't the case that you can pass freely through a border entry point into the UK - in order to be able to enter the UK you need to present the relevant documentation to demonstrate that you are allowed to enter.

We aren't in the Schengen area, where there is genuine free movement across borders without passport (or other appropriate document) check. And don't forget that genuine free movement (as per Schengen) and being in the EU aren't synonymous. So there are EU countries that aren't in Schengen, such as UK, Ireland and Bulgaria. And there are non EU countries that are in Schengen or have equivalent open borders - indeed at least 9 countries or territories.

[Jack Knave]

That's a lie.

Have a read...

http://www.ukipdaily.com/new-totalitarian-age/

[ProfessorDavey]

Points to Michael Gove on saying the right thing about the registration problem, Gerald Howarth on the other hand, is a dangerous buffoon.

I gather that Leave are trying to take legal action to prevent people registering in the extended period.

So we have a group of people who on the one hand are claiming that voice of the british people should be heard and yet are trying to prevent people from being able to vote.

If there is any legal action it should be against this:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/vote-leave-accused-of-disenfranchising-people-trying-to-register-to-vote-with-misleading-website-a7068661.html

Absolutely disgraceful.

[Jack Knave]

Farage is just an entertainer, a clown - he delivers his lines well and gives an impressive performance but he has no substance. In last nights debate he ignored many of the questions and just talked over the questioners when they tried bring him back to the question. It was a complete disgrace!

That's just bias rubbish. He was brilliant!!!

Companies such as Toyota and Nissan have invested heavily in Britain to build manufacturing plant to serve the EU market. As I said, these are good sound companies, but their business plans would have assumed free access to the EU market - change that and it's all bets off. If it became too expensive to manufacture in Britain - they would have no option but to change their plans, probably shifting production to plants in mainland Europe.

The EU is a dying market why would they move there? Who would they sell to there, where in some member states they have 25% unemployment with 50% youth unemployment. We have a trade deficit of about £60 billion with the EU but a surplus of about the same with the rest of the world. I think they would want to stay with us and trade with the rest of the world without all those stupid tariffs. 

The fundamentals of business don't change - companies need to make a profit.

And they will with the rest of the world.

A great many BSI standards are enshrined in law - as you would quickly discover if you tried selling unapproved electrical equipment.[/

Most of the 'stupid' EU laws that people complain about are equally reasonable when you look into them.

But they themselves are not per se.

Business (SMEs) doesn't agree with you because they say it is too costly to adhere to all the red tape. It is fine for big business as it stops competition i.e. start ups.

[Jack Knave]

Not really - perfectly relevant.

But even if you are talking about a nation state why is it not possible for a nation state to chose to allow freedom of movement across one (or more) of its borders. All sorts of nation states do this, not just those in the EU.

This is a stupid argument because it is all about choice and we want to be rid of the EU and its controlling rules. But we wish to stay in the UK. That is what the referendum is all about, choice.

[SusanDoris]

NS

could you please give me an idea, say, in percentages, of what the odds indicate? thank you.

****
On the 5:30 slot on PM, the last word was again given to the leavers. Seems to me that's been happpening too often.

[jakswan]

Not really - perfectly relevant.

But even if you are talking about a nation state why is it not possible for a nation state to chose to allow freedom of movement across one (or more) of its borders. All sorts of nation states do this, not just those in the EU.

It should be upto the nation state to decide how it controls its borders, if there is a bi-lateral agreement I think its fine each state can decide. To take a play out of your play book how is it there those of us think the UK should control who comes into the country are being xenophobic yet when the EU controls who comes into the EU superstate its fine?

[jakswan]

And of course it isn't the case that you can pass freely through a border entry point into the UK - in order to be able to enter the UK you need to present the relevant documentation to demonstrate that you are allowed to enter.

We aren't in the Schengen area, where there is genuine free movement across borders without passport (or other appropriate document) check. And don't forget that genuine free movement (as per Schengen) and being in the EU aren't synonymous. So there are EU countries that aren't in Schengen, such as UK, Ireland and Bulgaria. And there are non EU countries that are in Schengen or have equivalent open borders - indeed at least 9 countries or territories.

Obtuse 102, you know what I meant.

[jeremyp]

You are for open borders everywhere.

That's not relevant to the question of EU membership at the moment.

As it happens, I think the EU should be more open but if we leave it, I'll never have the opportunity to change its current policy. More to the point, it might suddenly become closed to me and many other Brits like me who sometimes work in continental Europe.

This is a problem that Leavers seem to ignore. i.e. anything we can do to Europe they can do to us but with bells on. So, foe example, yesterday on Today, some moronic Leaver was arguing that the EU prevents us from deporting foreign convicted criminals which means we won't be safe in our beds. He neglected to mention that the same rules also prevent other countries deporting British criminals back to the UK.

[jakswan]

NS

could you please give me an idea, say, in percentages, of what the odds indicate? thank you.

****
On the 5:30 slot on PM, the last word was again given to the leavers. Seems to me that's been happpening too often.

www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.118739911

Current Decimal odds are 1.35 Stay / 3.75 leave.

You can convert this to implied probability:-

1/1.35 = 74% chance of remaining
1/3.75 = 27% chance of leaving

According to that market. Now if you are sharp you will think eh? 74 +27 = 101%, betting markets are like this crudely shows value, at the bookies you normally get 125%.

But hey don't listen to me I'm for Brexit so must be silly, stupid, illogical, and unreasonable.

[jeremyp]

This has been true of the UK and Ireland, hasn't it? 

That will have to stop if the UK leaves the EU if Farage and his best bud Jakswan want to stop those nasty foreigners taking out jobs and living on our dole.

[jeremyp]

Have a read...

http://www.ukipdaily.com/new-totalitarian-age/

I don't need to. The EU isn't a state much less a totalitarian one.

And if you think that anything on UKIP Daily can be trusted, you are a fucking moron.

[ProfessorDavey]

... if there is a bi-lateral agreement I think its fine each state can decide.

So are you claiming that a state is allowed to enter into a bilateral agreement, but not into a multilateral one. That's bizarre. Because that's what the EU basic approach on free movement is - a multilateral agreement that has been supported unanimously by all member states. Are you saying that shouldn't be allowed?

[jakswan]

So are you claiming that a state is allowed to enter into a bilateral agreement, but not into a multilateral one. That's bizarre. Because that's what the EU basic approach on free movement is - a multilateral agreement that has been supported unanimously by all member states. Are you saying that shouldn't be allowed?

No, its not a case of being "allowed", where do you come up with these weird notions. I think having multilateral agreements on borders undermines sovereignty, its an opinion, if you agree vote leave, disagree vote remain. 

[ProfessorDavey]

No, its not a case of being "allowed", where do you come up with these weird notions. I think having multilateral agreements on borders undermines sovereignty, its an opinion, if you agree vote leave, disagree vote remain.

But if that decision has been taken by the sovereign government of that state then why is that an issue.

[jakswan]

But if that decision has been taken by the sovereign government of that state then why is that an issue.

I think from time to time its good to allow the people to vote, if up to you would you allow this vote?

[SusanDoris]

www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.118739911

Current Decimal odds are 1.35 Stay / 3.75 leave.

You can convert this to implied probability:-

1/1.35 = 74% chance of remaining
1/3.75 = 27% chance of leaving

Thank you - if about 74% want to remain, then I can relax!
I presume it was just a typo in the 1..34 a couple of lines above?

[jeremyp]

Thank you - if about 74% want to remain, then I can relax!
I presume it was just a typo in the 1..34 a couple of lines above?

No you can't relax. These are bookies odds and they reflect how people are betting, not the actual odds of the vote going one way or the other.

[Nearly Sane]

Thank you - if about 74% want to remain, then I can relax!
I presume it was just a typo in the 1..34 a couple of lines above?

As jeremyp has already pointed out, that's not what it means. Rather that if the referendum were to be run 100 times, it is thought that Stay would win 75 times, based on people's expectations. It isn't an exact science but it suggests a vote somewhere around 53/47 in favour of stay as about most likely. Were it expected to be about 56/44, odds would be more like 6/1 on.

If it was thought that the result was going to be 74/26 then there would be no odds offered. As tgat's the equivalent of betting your local pub team to beat Real Madrid.

[SusanDoris]

No you can't relax. These are bookies odds and they reflect how people are betting, not the actual odds of the vote going one way or the other.

Oh dear!!

[SusanDoris]

As jeremyp has already pointed out, that's not what it means. Rather that if the referendum were to be run 100 times, it is thought that Stay would win 75 times, based on people's expectations. It isn't an exact science but it suggests a vote somewhere around 53/47 in favour of stay as about most likely. Were it expected to be about 56/44, odds would be more like 6/1 on.

If it was thought that the result was going to be 74/26 then there would be no odds offered. As tgat's the equivalent of betting your local pub team to beat Real Madrid.

Ah, thank you. So I can breathe just a little more easily for the moment. ]

[Nearly Sane]

Ah, thank you. So I can breathe just a little more easily for the moment. ]

Then I must have been unclear. The current market I predicting quite a close vote, as I said about 53/47. A major headline on terrorism close to the poll and that might easily flip.


Just to note that, the market is currently moving in Stay's favour slightly after a time of narrowing considerably for Leave. The registration numbers and the percentage of those who are registering being relatively young is part of it. Not sure if Sarah Wollaston's defection has impact yet. I have to admit I find her moving from one side to the other because of the lies on the Leave side odd. The case is surely sound in one's opinion or not, and given the nonsense spouted by some in the Stay campaign, it's not easy to contrast one side as better able to govern honestly.

[jakswan]

I wonder if the Chancellor lying on mainstream TV will push people in a certain direction.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkfVAIPXEAA7WYi.jpg