The result of the EU referendum:

[jeremyp]

Not if we stay in the EU.

Says the rabid mouth frother who claims the EU is Stalin's USSR. Yeah right.

[Jack Knave]

Surely, if there was a Brexit vote, it would seem highly likely that Scottish public opinion would change drastically in favour of independence?

They may whinge on about it but they would not vote for it because of the low price of oil.

[Shaker]

Heard an interesting report on R4 this evening.

Somebody has just done a Europe wide poll on EU scepticism and the Brexit referendum. Apparently a small majority want Britain to stay in - unsurprising as we are the third largest net contributor. However opinion on whether people want their own country to stay in the EU is on the same kind of knife edge as it is here.

And here is the kicker (according to the reporter), EU politicians are frightened that a British Leave vote would prompt people in other countries in the EU to leave particularly if we negotiate a good deal with the EU post Brexit. This means we won't be able to get a good deal with the EU after Brexit which means we are stuffed.

I read a couple of weeks ago that Sweden in particular are keeping a watchful eye on the result, Brexit being assumed to add substance to, er, Swexit.

[Jack Knave]

Heard an interesting report on R4 this evening.

Somebody has just done a Europe wide poll on EU scepticism and the Brexit referendum. Apparently a small majority want Britain to stay in - unsurprising as we are the third largest net contributor. However opinion on whether people want their own country to stay in the EU is on the same kind of knife edge as it is here.

And here is the kicker (according to the reporter), EU politicians are frightened that a British Leave vote would prompt people in other countries in the EU to leave particularly if we negotiate a good deal with the EU post Brexit. This means we won't be able to get a good deal with the EU after Brexit which means we are stuffed.

Which also means the EU is stuffed too.

[jakswan]

For most intelligent politicians, migration is a non issue except insofar as their electorate gets agitated about it.

In a democracy without an electorate they won't be politicians.

The real reason that the government has never really grasped the nettle of immigration is that it is beneficial to everybody except the British losers who find themselves unemployed as a result.

Ahh British losers fuck those guys, what are food banks for, fucking losers.

Migrants from the EU tend to be economically active, thus paying taxes and not to be a drain on resources because they are usually young and fit and if they can't get a job, they go elsewhere in the EU.

As opposed to migrants from places like India, do they leech of the state, perhaps they are worse than British losers.

If you're a in government trying to balance the books, what's not to like about that? I listened to the More or Less programme on immigration yesterday. They had an expert on who said that, if Leavers win, the government will reduce immigration for a bit just to prove they can and then just let it creep up again because it's good for them.

I think most leave politicians would agree that immigration is a good thing and have said exactly that.

By the way, studies of immigration, particularly in the USA show that it doesn't affect wages as much as you might think.

I think the Bank of England said a 10% increase in immigration suppresses wages by 2%? I think that was for care workers, waiting staff, and cleaners, you might think they are losers though.

I made this point to my boss, he said 'yeah but things are cheaper then', he is voting remain.

[Nearly Sane]

Jon Oliver's take - NSFW


https://www.youtube.com/embed/iAgKHSNqxa8

[jeremyp]

Which also means the EU is stuffed too.

Not if people like you don't wreck it.

[jeremyp]

In a democracy without an electorate they won't be politicians.

Correct, which is why people like Johnson and Gove are pretending immigration is a problem.

Ahh British losers fuck those guys, what are food banks for, fucking losers.

Ah Romanian losers, fuck them. They can all go back and starve in their own countries. You still haven't explained why an Eastern European's life is intrinsically worth less than a British person's.

Actually, if you are British and you can't compete in the job market with somebody who is thousands of miles from home and whose first language is not English, you pretty well must be a loser.

As opposed to migrants from places like India, do they leech of the state, perhaps they are worse than British losers.

I've no idea. The programme I listened to concentrated on EU migrants since it is they that the likes of Farage are trying to kick out.

I think most leave politicians would agree that immigration is a good thing and have said exactly that.

And yet they are all concocting scare stories about immigration.

I think the Bank of England said a 10% increase in immigration suppresses wages by 2%? I think that was for care workers, waiting staff, and cleaners, you might think they are losers though.

It's hard to see how you are going to depress the wages of many of these people since it is illegal to pay below the minimum wage.

I made this point to my boss, he said 'yeah but things are cheaper then', he is voting remain.

Your boss is wrong because immigration doesn't affect wages as much as you might think. However, I guess, if he likes fruit then he is at an advantage because, without immigrants the fruit would rot in the fields.

[Rhiannon]

And as predicted, here's George Soros on Brexit, sterling and the economy.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36582026

[Rhiannon]

Useful analysis here of the impact of immigration on wages.

http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-small-small-impact-immigration-uk-wages#.V2jeA_R4XCQ

[Hope]

It was also interesting to hear an interview with a strawberry farmer on BBC Breakfast yesterday in whih she confirmed that she has to employ (East) Europeans simply because very few, if any local people want to work in the industry regardless of the pay.

[Rhiannon]

It was also interesting to hear an interview with a strawberry farmer on BBC Breakfast yesterday in whih she confirmed that she has to employ (East) Europeans simply because very few, if any local people want to work in the industry regardless of the pay.

Same situation here in East Anglia. I've watched interviews on regional tv with local young people who say that picking fruit or veg is demeaning and unemployment preferable. How representative that is...

[Spud]

Hope,

For the record, when I was a student I used to pick apples here in Kent during the vacations. I loved it, but when I went back to the same farm three years later there were crowds of foreigners, particularly Eastern Europeans, working there and I just gave up - they were so unfriendly. If they had not been there I am pretty sure I would have avoided a very annoying period of unemployment.

Jeremy,

As far as I know, the aim is not to kick migrants out but to restrict the number coming in. America does it because everyone wants to live there. Why shouldn't we?

[L.A.]

If anyone ought to know about these things this guy should:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36582026

Can we really be that stupid? Shit Creek beckons and we are throwing away our paddle!



A particularly relevant quote:

"On Thursday evening and through the night, some of the world's biggest banks are expected to have senior traders working during what some people think could be the most volatile trading for sterling since Black Wednesday."

[jakswan]

Correct, which is why people like Johnson and Gove are pretending immigration is a problem.

They think uncontrolled immigration causes problems. Much like the rest of the world and even the EU themselves.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36558694 - Charity refuses funding due to EU migration policy. 

Ah Romanian losers, fuck them. They can all go back and starve in their own countries. You still haven't explained why an Eastern European's life is intrinsically worth less than a British person's.

No never said that about Romanians, you used the phrase "British losers", own it. I do not think an Eastern European's life is intrinsically worth less than a British person's, I think UK taxes, economy, culture, government are rightfully more concerned with British citizens.

You still haven't explained why an EU persons life is intrinsically worth less than a Non-EU person.

Actually, if you are British and you can't compete in the job market with somebody who is thousands of miles from home and whose first language is not English, you pretty well must be a loser.

Simplistic.

I've no idea. The programme I listened to concentrated on EU migrants since it is they that the likes of Farage are trying to kick out.

Take it up with Farage then.

And yet they are all concocting scare stories about immigration.
It's hard to see how you are going to depress the wages of many of these people since it is illegal to pay below the minimum wage.

So the the Bank of England is a credible source when it supports your position but when it doesn't support your view you will just assert the evidence away.

Your boss is wrong because immigration doesn't affect wages as much as you might think. However, I guess, if he likes fruit then he is at an advantage because, without immigrants the fruit would rot in the fields.

Yes agree immigration is good for the UK, you keep not hearing this, I wonder why.

[L.A.]

It was also interesting to hear an interview with a strawberry farmer on BBC Breakfast yesterday in whih she confirmed that she has to employ (East) Europeans simply because very few, if any local people want to work in the industry regardless of the pay.

That's true, the BEEB did that program a year or so ago when they tried to get local unemployed to fill some of these vacancies - and failed miserably. Most people weren't interested of couldn't get out of bed and the ones who really tried just couldn't do the work.

A lot of our farmers would be in big trouble without EU migrants and that would ripple through the whole community.

[SusanDoris]

For most intelligent politicians, migration is a non issue except insofar as their electorate gets agitated about it. The real reason that the government has never really grasped the nettle of immigration is that it is beneficial to everybody except the British losers who find themselves unemployed as a result.

As one employment agent said the other day - if he sends a British person to do the picking fruit and veg work, many cannot do  the physical work and it doesn't suit them to do it either.

Migrants from the EU tend to be economically active, thus paying taxes and not to be a drain on resources because they are usually young and fit and if they can't get a job, they go elsewhere in the EU. If you're a in government trying to balance the books, what's not to like about that? I listened to the More or Less programme on immigration yesterday. They had an expert on who said that, if Leavers win, the government will reduce immigration for a bit just to prove they can and then just let it creep up again because it's good for them.

Oh, bother, I missed that - I'll have to do a listen again.

At least, it now looks as if a remain vote is a tad more likely than the opposite.

[floo]

As one employment agent said the other day - if he sends a British person to do the picking fruit and veg work, many cannot do  the physical work and it doesn't suit them to do it either. Oh, bother, I missed that - I'll have to do a listen again.

At least, it now looks as if a remain vote is a tad more likely than the opposite.

I fervently hope so.

[Jack Knave]

Not if people like you don't wreck it.

Open your eyes, Jeremy, they are doing a wonderful job at trashing it themselves. They don't need my help to do that.

[Spud]

As one employment agent said the other day - if he sends a British person to do the picking fruit and veg work, many cannot do  the physical work and it doesn't suit them to do it either. Oh, bother, I missed that - I'll have to do a listen again.

At least, it now looks as if a remain vote is a tad more likely than the opposite.

If they are competing with pickers from other countries, it might appear that they can't do the work. Probably they can't pick nearly as much as the Europeans when working alongside them. But when I was fruit picking, there were some British pickers who had made a career of it, who did manage to keep up with them. It is a shame that we have to rely on foreign workers to meet our needs to the extent that we can't survive without them.

If we did leave, and the foreign workers went elsewhere, other people would be available to do the work (eg people who might be made redundant due to Brexit). There would be a drop in output to start with, but we would adapt and get stronger and better at it.

[Harrowby Hall]

I can't be bothered to wade through the 97 pages of this thread, but has the consequence of leaving and the threat of TTIP already been mentioned?

In the event of Brexit, the right-wing cabal that would rule the Conservative Party would drool at the mouth for a mini-TTIP between the newly "independent" UK and the USA. It is practically certain that the NHS would be wound up and an American-style health insurance scheme introduced to replace it.

Is that what Brexiters really desire?

[jakswan]

I can't be bothered to wade through the 97 pages of this thread, but has the consequence of leaving and the threat of TTIP already been mentioned?

In the event of Brexit, the right-wing cabal that would rule the Conservative Party would drool at the mouth for a mini-TTIP between the newly "independent" UK and the USA. It is practically certain that the NHS would be wound up and an American-style health insurance scheme introduced to replace it.

Is that what Brexiters really desire?

World War 3, doom and gloom and now the NHS ended.

I think TTIP has the potential to undermine the NHS. For a maxi-TTIP to pass Cameron, post Bremain, has to not use his veto. For a UK-US deal to pass, post Brexit, Cameron has to get the support of a majority of MPs (and his majority is slim) and the support from the public.

A UK government will do things that go against UK public opinion but eventually folds to public opinion, the EU is nearly immune to UK public opinion, which is why, we, the public need to take back control.

[ProfessorDavey]

I think TTIP has the potential to undermine the NHS. For a maxi-TTIP to pass Cameron, post Bremain, has to not use his veto. For a UK-US deal to pass, post Brexit, Cameron has to get the support of a majority of MPs (and his majority is slim) and the support from the public.

So thanks for that - you have ably confirmed that the UK government has a veto on the TTIP or Brexit-TTIP whether we remain or leave. So leaving won't make any difference if the government choses not to support.

However there is a difference if the Tory government decides it loves the libertarian-free market approach of the TTIP. In brexit all IDS/Gove/Johsnon need to do is whip their MPs and through it goes. Actually I doubt that a trade deal requires primary legislation so the government can probably approve without ever referring it to parliament. What makes you think a UK/USA trade deal needs to be ratified by parliament Jakswan?

If we remain we can rely on any of 27 other countries who might be of a less libertarian-free market persuasion to veto it until it is moderated to an appropriate level.

[Rhiannon]

The family of a friend of my daughter's have had stones thrown at their house for displaying Remain posters.

[jakswan]

So thanks for that - you have ably confirmed that the UK government has a veto on the TTIP or Brexit-TTIP whether we remain or leave. So leaving won't make any difference if the government choses not to support.

If the Tory cabinet supports TTIP then the veto will not be used.

However there is a difference if the Tory government decides it loves the libertarian-free market approach of the TTIP. In brexit all IDS/Gove/Johsnon need to do is whip their MPs and through it goes. Actually I doubt that a trade deal requires primary legislation so the government can probably approve without ever referring it to parliament. What makes you think a UK/USA trade deal needs to be ratified by parliament Jakswan?

If it has that impact I think it would, we don't do our own trade deals currently so not really sure.

The Tories can whip all they like the majority the have is slim, all it would take would be for a few Tory MP's to not follow the whip for this to fail. In light of the pressure from public opinion then I think this would fail.

If we remain we can rely on any of 27 other countries who might be of a less libertarian-free market persuasion to veto it until it is moderated to an appropriate level.

So if 27 countries want libertarian-free market approach to public services but one doesn't then 27 countries democracies are undermined. Sounds like a shit system, vote leave.