The result of the EU referendum:

[wigginhall]

I'm pro migration. However, there is an economic cost that can't be ignored. Many migrants come here to work for a certain period of time and live as cheaply as possible, sending their pay (after deductions) back home, either to keep their families or to be invested with the aim of purchasing a property or starting a business. The money that gets sent out of the country is money that isn't circulating in our economy. The question is whether the net benefits outweigh this.

An interesting aspect is to do with shortages of labour, which you tend to get in agriculture (seasonal), catering, building, engineering, health care, teaching.  Of course, you can have training schemes for English people to fill the gaps, but migrant labour also tends to fill them. 

I'm not sure how governments control this, except by locating the shortages and accepting migrants there.   But of course, classical economic theory predicts that they will be filled anyway, with free movement of labour, goods, capital and services.  In a sense, no control is required.

(Ironically, this tends to be a right-wing position, but at the moment, for various reasons, they are banging the drum about bongobongoland and fuzzy-wuzzies).

[Shaker]

It's not meant to be rational, is it?  I saw a guy on TV who said,  yeah, Leave, and then whispered in a horrified tone, 'you know they have Polish food in the local Tesco's', as if that settled the matter.

I can only hope that nobody tells the poor benighted creature that we've had Indian restaurants, Chinese takeaways and kebab shops for donkey's years.

[Rhiannon]

I can only hope that nobody tells the poor benighted creature that we've had Indian restaurants, Chinese takeaways and kebab shops for donkey's years.

And Indian, Thai, Mexican and Chinese food in Tesco itself, for as long as I can remember.

Not to mention Italian, French, German, Dutch, Swiss and Greek cuisine, wine, spirits etc etc.

[wigginhall]

http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/C8A5/production/_90056315_hi033643000.jpg

Breaking point!  We cannot accept any more like this.

[Nearly Sane]

Oh ffs! Experts are Nazis!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/21/michael-gove-compares-experts-warning-against-brexit-to-nazis-wh/

[L.A.]

http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/C8A5/production/_90056315_hi033643000.jpg

Breaking point!  We cannot accept any more like this.

Doesn't quite make sense - does this relate to the Glastonbury flood story?

[L.A.]

Oh ffs! Experts are Nazis!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/21/michael-gove-compares-experts-warning-against-brexit-to-nazis-wh/

Just when you think the tone couldn't get any lower along comes Gove with a Godwinism!

[wigginhall]

Another interesting point about immigration is Cameron's claim to reduce it to 'tens of thousands'.  However, you can argue that this would be catastrophic for the economy, and that Cameron was just saying this as a kind of empty slogan. 

[ProfessorDavey]

If the Tory cabinet supports TTIP then the veto will not be used.

If the Tory cabinet supports Brexit-TTIP it will happen if we leave.

Note you have completely failed to address my point about whether a trade deal requires the approval of the House of commons - you claim it does but you have provided no evidence whatsoever. I would consider this to be one of many government decisions that can be approved by the government alone, without reference to the commons. Certainly I cannot see how it would require primary legislation.

So lets look at the options then.

If the UK remains and the UK government doesn't want TTIP - it vetoes, result no TTIP.
If the UK remains and the UK government wants TTIP - it supports, but TTIP only happens if all other 27 support too. result, may get TTIP, may not.

If the UK leaves and the UK government doesn't want TTIP - it is in charge of the decision alone, result no TTIP.
If the UK leaves and the UK government wants TTIP - it is in charge of the decision alone, result TTIP.

So if you don't want TTIP and wouldn't want it even if this tory government wanted it, then you are much better in rather than out.

[L.A.]

Another interesting point about immigration is Cameron's claim to reduce it to 'tens of thousands'.  However, you can argue that this would be catastrophic for the economy, and that Cameron was just saying this as a kind of empty slogan.

I'm sure that if anyone were ever stupid enough to reduce migration so low, it would be pretty catastrophic.

[Udayana]

If the Tory cabinet supports Brexit-TTIP it will happen if we leave.

Note you have completely failed to address my point about whether a trade deal requires the approval of the House of commons - you claim it does but you have provided no evidence whatsoever. I would consider this to be one of many government decisions that can be approved by the government alone, without reference to the commons. Certainly I cannot see how it would require primary legislation.

So lets look at the options then.

If the UK remains and the UK government doesn't want TTIP - it vetoes, result no TTIP.
If the UK remains and the UK government wants TTIP - it supports, but TTIP only happens if all other 27 support too. result, may get TTIP, may not.

If the UK leaves and the UK government doesn't want TTIP - it is in charge of the decision alone, result no TTIP.
If the UK leaves and the UK government wants TTIP - it is in charge of the decision alone, result TTIP.

So if you don't want TTIP and wouldn't want it even if this tory government wanted it, then you are much better in rather than out.

Everyone wants TTIP - it is detail in some of the terms that are in question.

As far as I can determine most disputed points have been addressed, in particular ISDS. Although there were fears earlier that the NHS might be compromised, the EU negotiators have gone to some length to ensure government services are not affected. They have also published information about the negotiations:

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ttip/index_en.htm

In particular a letter addressing the NHS concerns:
http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2016/june/tradoc_154617.pdf

If we leave, we won't be included by TTIP. Even though UK/US trade would be (or would have been) boosted by the agreement, new negotiations would be needed, and Pres. Obama indicated that the UK would end up at the back of the queue for these. There is no guarantee that such new negotiations would include any safeguards negotiated by the EU in TTIP. 

And... whatever treaty is eventually arrived at, because of the wide scope, there will always be objections to some terms by some people.

[Udayana]

I'm sure that if anyone were ever stupid enough to reduce migration so low, it would be pretty catastrophic.

I don't think there is any evidence that any UK government can "control" immigration or that leaving would mean lower overall immigration. Immigration is dependent on the economy. If we were able to "control" it, the Tory government would already have reduced non-EU immigration to a fraction of current EU immigration.

In fact, there is a strong possibility that, on Brexit, immigration would increase as the UK would need to lower labor costs to compete in the adverse business environment.

[L.A.]

I don't think there is any evidence that any UK government can "control" immigration or that leaving would mean lower overall immigration. Immigration is dependent on the economy. If we were able to "control" it, the Tory government would already have reduced non-EU immigration to a fraction of current EU immigration.

In fact, there is a strong possibility that, on Brexit, immigration would increase as the UK would need to lower labor costs to compete in the adverse business environment.

Hmm . . . largescale migration of unskilled workers from non-EU countries. I'm sure that will please UKIP voters

[L.A.]

It's going to be a bumpy ride - and we'll all wake up a lot poorer on Friday if there is a Brexit vote.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36596250

[jakswan]

Yes, I am not very politically savvy, my thoughts on taxes, I earn a quid I am taxed on that quid, exact same for Google, Microsoft or facebook, these companies need us to make their huge profits, no get out clause for them, they pay the exact same as me.

Their get out clause is that they raise the sale in Ireland and pay the tax (at a much reduced rate) in Ireland.

[jakswan]

If the Tory cabinet supports Brexit-TTIP it will happen if we leave.

Note you have completely failed to address my point about whether a trade deal requires the approval of the House of commons - you claim it does but you have provided no evidence whatsoever. I would consider this to be one of many government decisions that can be approved by the government alone, without reference to the commons. Certainly I cannot see how it would require primary legislation.

So lets look at the options then.

If the UK remains and the UK government doesn't want TTIP - it vetoes, result no TTIP.
If the UK remains and the UK government wants TTIP - it supports, but TTIP only happens if all other 27 support too. result, may get TTIP, may not.

If the UK leaves and the UK government doesn't want TTIP - it is in charge of the decision alone, result no TTIP.
If the UK leaves and the UK government wants TTIP - it is in charge of the decision alone, result TTIP.

So if you don't want TTIP and wouldn't want it even if this tory government wanted it, then you are much better in rather than out.

If the UK remains and the UK government doesn't want TTIP but 27 other states do - it might not veto, result TTIP.

You forgot at least one, there are influences on the government, public opinion being one, in the case of remain 27 other nation states being the other.

[Rhiannon]

Polls have Brexit ahead.

[Shaker]

Polls have Brexit ahead.

They've been that way for some time, I believe.

[ProfessorDavey]

They've been that way for some time, I believe.

But very worrying that they continue to be - there is usually a late swing back to the status quo, but there isn't really any evidence of this however.

[Rhiannon]

They've been that way for some time, I believe.

They swung back away towards Remain hence the surge in sterling against the dollar at the start of the week. Just a blip or so it seems.

[Rhiannon]

But very worrying that they continue to be - there is usually a late swing back to the status quo, but there isn't really any evidence of this however.

9% undecided. They would be likely to vote with what they know.

[ProfessorDavey]

9% undecided. They would be likely to vote with what they know.

If they are the voting undecideds, rather than those who can't decide so end up not bothering to vote.

I am genuinely worried and feeling a touch depressed this evening.

Partly because of our work summer BBQ this afternoon. Sat eating and drinking with colleagues and friends - table with 2 Brits, 2 Germans, 1 Slovakian, 1 Dutch, 1 Italian and 2 Russians. All are fantastic and hard working academics, all but one have been in the UK for decades and in several cases are married and have kids here. All have contributed to the UK massively over years, not least in tax. All will be significantly affected by the result, obviously negatively if we leave.

Of those 9 people at the table, only 4 are allowed to vote tomorrow - the 2 Brits and the 2 Russians.

What on earth is wrong with us when we deny the vote to people who have been living and working in the UK for decades on a matter which will affect them massively simply because they were born in Holland, Germany, Slovakia or Italy. I was genuinely shocked.

[Rhiannon]

The 9% indicated they would definitely vote.

[ProfessorDavey]

The 9% indicated they would definitely vote.

Lets hope so - but lots of people say they'll definitely vote, but don't.

Any thoughts on EU nationals who have been living in the UK, working here, contributing here, bringing up their families here - yet not being able to vote tomorrow.

Seems so, so wrong to me. And that genuinely isn't simply about how they might vote. I just feel people who are permanently resident in the UK should have a say.

[Rhiannon]

This clearly explains everything ...

https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/dont-look-back-in-anger-i-heard-eu-say?utm_term=.higErlGXM#.ee4DB4NxG