The result of the EU referendum:

[Hope]

Polls have Brexit ahead.

The Telegraph, in a survey of polls on Tuesday had Remain on 53% and Leave on 46% on June 21st; Remain on 48% and Leave on 49% on June 14th; and Remain on 48% and Leave on 47% on June 7th.

[Rhiannon]

Lets hope so - but lots of people say they'll definitely vote, but don't.

Any thoughts on EU nationals who have been living in the UK, working here, contributing here, bringing up their families here - yet not being able to vote tomorrow.

Seems so, so wrong to me. And that genuinely isn't simply about how they might vote. I just feel people who are permanently resident in the UK should have a say.

Yes, as it happens I agree - I'm not sure which criteria qualifies someone as a permanent resident and I'd have thought some kind of minimum stay would be required, but that should apply to all migrant families entitled to vote. It isn't right.

[ProfessorDavey]

Yes, as it happens I agree - I'm not sure which criteria qualifies someone as a permanent resident and I'd have thought some kind of minimum stay would be required, but that should apply to all migrant families entitled to vote. It isn't right.

I'm talking about people who have been here for 15-20 years or more.

What is interesting is that both the Russians (also both been here for decades) can vote. The difference being that because they aren't from a EU country they both have dual citizenship, basically to make it easier to travel between the UK and Russia. For the EU nationals, there wasn't any need (because of free movement) so they remain German, Italian, Dutch citizens and therefore are ineligible to vote.

Just wrong.

[Hope]

Seems so, so wrong to me. And that genuinely isn't simply about how they might vote. I just feel people who are permanently resident in the UK should have a say.

I was surprised that Russian nationals living in the UK can vote; in the circumstances, if anything I'd only allow British citizens a vote - even though that would disenfranchise my wife (Australian) who has lived in the UK for 29 of the last 36 years (including the last 16 and a half years).

Mind you, all the sites I can find say that anyone who could vote in the last general election (or has become eligible to vote since and has registered) can vote in this referendum.
https://fullfact.org/europe/who-can-vote-eu-referendum/
https://www.gov.uk/government/topical-events/eu-referendum/about
http://tinyurl.com/juykx4p

No mention of uniquely Russian citizens being allowed to vote.

[Hope]

I'm talking about people who have been here for 15-20 years or more.

What is interesting is that both the Russians (also both been here for decades) can vote. The difference being that because they aren't from a EU country they both have dual citizenship, basically to make it easier to travel between the UK and Russia. For the EU nationals, there wasn't any need (because of free movement) so they remain German, Italian, Dutch citizens and therefore are ineligible to vote.

Just wrong.

Not sure why its wrong.  Brits living in other European countries haven't been allowed to vote in referenda that such countries have held - such as those that some held on the Treay of Lisbon a few years ago.

If the Russians you refer to have taken out dual nationality then they are using their UK nationality to vote with.

[Rhiannon]

EU citizens who were resident in Scotland were allowed to vote in IndyRef.

http://www.scotreferendum.com/questions/who-can-vote-in-the-referendum/

[Gonnagle]

Dear eerrm, well dear somebody,

Only one thing missing, us Jocks, but well done Wales, well done Republic of Ireland, well done Northern Ireland, well done yon Sassenachs sorry, well done England, is this the wrong thread, sue me

Gonnagle.

[Hope]

EU citizens who were resident in Scotland were allowed to vote in IndyRef.

http://www.scotreferendum.com/questions/who-can-vote-in-the-referendum/

IIRC, the rules of that referendum were initially proposed by the Scottish Government not the British Govt.  OK, the latter had to OK the rules, but it would have been difficult for them not to.

[Rhiannon]

IIRC, the rules of that referendum were initially proposed by the Scottish Government not the British Govt.  OK, the latter had to OK the rules, but it would have been difficult for them not to.

Not sure how that is relevant to why the UK government couldn't include resident EU citizens too.

[Harrowby Hall]

I was surprised that Russian nationals living in the UK can vote;

But the prof is being just a little disingenuous, isn't he.

They are not "Russian nationals".  The are British citizens who also have Russian nationality.

There is no reason why any of the other people should not have British nationality - they merely chose not to. Their disenfranchisement is entirely their own fault.

Were I living in another country for any length of time I would apply for citizenship of that country - if I pay taxes I would want to have a say in how those taxes are used.

[ProfessorDavey]

But the prof is being just a little disingenuous, isn't he.

They are not "Russian nationals".  The are British citizens who also have Russian nationality.

I don't think I was being disingenuous at all - certainly not deliberately. I thought I was very clear that the reason my 2 russian colleagues could vote was because they had dual nationality.

But this isn't really about EU vs russian at all. I simply think that people who have chosen permanently to make their home in the UK, lived here for decades, contributed for years and years, married, had kids here etc should be able to vote tomorrow.

Yet they aren't. That in my mind is wrong.

[Rhiannon]

But they can't vote in general elections either presumably?

[Rhiannon]

ComRes have Remain with an 8 point lead.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-final-brexit-comres-yougov-opinium-tns-survey-remain-leave-live-result-a7096316.html

[Harrowby Hall]

I don't think I was being disingenuous at all - certainly not deliberately. I thought I was very clear that the reason my 2 russian colleagues could vote was because they had dual nationality.

No. You described them as Russians not dual Russian/UK. You wrote

What is interesting is that both the Russians (also both been here for decades) can vote.

The implication of this statement is that they are not UK citizens. OK in your next sentence you do say that they hold dual nationality. The fact that their original nationality was Russian is a total red herring. You are making an observation based on their origin solely and not on their life choices.

They can vote because they are UK citizens. Their Russian nationality has nothing to do with this. You were being disingenuous.

The reason your other colleagues cannot vote is that they have been uninterested in maximising their civic role in their adopted home.

[Nearly Sane]

But they can't vote in general elections either presumably?

Correct, they can vote in local elections, devolved elections and EU elections.

[L.A.]

Just off to vote, I wonder if they have put the broken glass down for UKIP supporters?

[ProfessorDavey]

No. You described them as Russians not dual Russian/UK. You wrote
 

The implication of this statement is that they are not UK citizens. OK in your next sentence you do say that they hold dual nationality. The fact that their original nationality was Russian is a total red herring. You are making an observation based on their origin solely and not on their life choices.

They can vote because they are UK citizens. Their Russian nationality has nothing to do with this. You were being disingenuous.

Sorry HH _ I wasn't being disingenuous whatsoever.

These are people I know, you don't. They still consider themselves to be Russian, albeit Russians who have lived in the UK for decades. They have dual nationality so they remain russian. I never attempted to hid the fact of their dual nationality, indeed I was clear that to be the reason they could vote and the others can't.

But this is a side issues, one misinterpreted by others here. In my view all should be able to vote - all have been permanently resident in the UK for years, all are massively contributing to the UK in many, many ways. All will be affected by the outcome.

The reason your other colleagues cannot vote is that they have been uninterested in maximising their civic role in their adopted home.

Oh sod off HH - you don't know these people so how dare you claim authority to judge them.

These people are all fantastic academics, including internationally leading top researchers. They have a fantastically international outlook - working with people across the world. These are involved and engaged in all aspects of life in the UK. Except for this the lack of a UK passport has no effect on their lives so why would they change nationality.

If you went and lived in Italy would you become an Italian?

[Harrowby Hall]

If you went and lived in Italy would you become an Italian?

Yes.

I have property in France which - for circumstances I won't bore you with - I do not occupy full time. Were I to be living in France full-time I would seek French citizenship. I regard that as my civic duty - an obligation that comes with privileges.

And thank you for your "Sod off." I took you for your better.

[jakswan]

No. You described them as Russians not dual Russian/UK. You wrote
 

The implication of this statement is that they are not UK citizens. OK in your next sentence you do say that they hold dual nationality. The fact that their original nationality was Russian is a total red herring. You are making an observation based on their origin solely and not on their life choices.

They can vote because they are UK citizens. Their Russian nationality has nothing to do with this. You were being disingenuous.

The reason your other colleagues cannot vote is that they have been uninterested in maximising their civic role in their adopted home.

When you have been spinning with Cameron its hard to stop.

[Rhiannon]

Just voted. Polling station very busy. Young lad telling us he's casting his vote for the first time - he's 18 today.

[L.A.]

I was the first one at mine, I had to wait while they sealed the ballot boxes.

[jeremyp]

No. You described them as Russians not dual Russian/UK. You wrote
 

The implication of this statement is that they are not UK citizens.

I've just read his post: it says they have dual nationality right there in it.

OK in your next sentence you do say that they hold dual nationality. The fact that their original nationality was Russian is a total red herring. You are making an observation based on their origin solely and not on their life choices.

They can vote because they are UK citizens. Their Russian nationality has nothing to do with this. You were being disingenuous.

Surely the point is that they have dual nationality because they are Russians. An EU citizen does not need to go through all this British citizenship malarky because they have a right to live and work here anyway. Russians in the same situation have to apply for British citizenship. Ironically, this has given them a say in a situation that doesn't affect them but has disenfranchised a large group of people that will be significantly impacted by the decision.

[Nearly Sane]

Odds moving further to Stay, implied 80%

[L.A.]

Odds moving further to Stay, implied 80%

Lets just hope - all we need now is another sodding recession.

[Gordon]

Just checked my Ladbrokes account for the live odds, where there are various bets on offer - as follows (for anyone who fancies a bet).

UK Wide - Stay is 1/5, Leave is 7/2 - so the bookies will be delighted to take Leave bets.

On the percentages for Stay the lowest price is 13/8 at between 50-55% and 2/1 between 55-60%. Beyond that the odds increase either side (5/1 for 45-50% and 7/1 for 60-65%). So the bookies think that Stay will win but by no greater that 60/40 and probably somewhere around 55/45.

For Leave the lowest odds are 4/9 for 40-50%, with 4/1 for 50-60% and 9/2 for 30-40%, which means the bookies think that while Leave will get over 40% they won't win, hence the strong odds on for a Stay majority.

They also quote the Stay/Leave odd for each of the UK countries as follows.

Scotland - Stay is 1/50, Leave 2/1

Wales     - Stay is 4/11, Leave 15/8

England - Stay is 1/3, Leave 2/1

N.Ireland - Stay is 1/33, Leave 8/1.

So they think Stay will win the majority in each of the 4 countries, and is a certainty in Scotland and Wales.

They are also offering bets on certain areas having the top Stay percentages in the list of areas offered for betting purposes: Edinburgh 2/1, Hackney 4/1, Southwark, 6/1, Islington 7/1, Cambridge 7/1, Oxford 7/1, Brighton & Hove, 16/1 Manchester 16/1, Cardiff 40/1.

For the highest proportion of Leave voting within the areas offered for betting purposes they have : Isle of Wight 7/2, Stoke-on-Trent 4/1, Peterborough 5/1, Cornwall 8/1, Plymouth, 12/1, Sunderland 12/1, Portsmouth 12/1, Swindon 16/1, Wolverhampton 16/1, Northampton 16/1, Kingston upon Hull 16/1, Derby 16/1.

Personally I'd rather bet on today's horse racing.