AB,
Just to re visit this example.
Why? The charge sheet against you of logical fallacies is long enough without troubling too much over just one instance of it. Have it your own way though…
I was not implying a miracle, just that it was a strange coincidence - one of many in my lifetime which I feel points to the influence of the Holy Spirit guiding our lives.
That’s because you don’t understand randomness.
Everything you experience is fantastically unlikely – dealing a pack of cards and obtaining a specific sequence gives you an astonishingly unlikely outcome – 52 factorial in fact (or 1 in 80,658,175,170,943,878,571,660,636,856,403,766,975,289,505,440,883,277,824,000,000,000,000) yet people deal cards and obtain these unlikely outcomes all the time. Or consider buying your newspaper this morning from that nice Mr Patel at the corner shop – have you any inkling of the fantastic unlikelihood of the countless events that had to have occurred for that event to have happened?
Sometimes though we attach
significance to certain events
after they have happened – what are the chances of bumping into Fred after 30 years? etc – when in fact we’ve bumped into countless people but we focus just on one of them, and moreover we ignore the no shows of all the other people we haven’t seen for decades (the “silent evidence” error).
So to your story:
to re cap:
A lady was being received into the church at one of our mid week services. Her sponsor had to cancel at the last minute, so the lady asked if my wife would act as sponsor during the ceremony. Neither the lady in question nor the priest knew if we would be attending the service with it being mid week. (We normally attend on sundays, and very occasionally mid week). There was no time for the priest or the lady to contact us, so this normally very punctual priest held up the service until we arrived 5 minutes late.
The strange thing is that my wife and I had not intended to go until we felt a last minute urge, even though we knew we would be late. And how on earth did the priest know we were coming?
Maybe he didn’t, any more than Mr Patel knew you were coming. This lady might though have told him she’d asked your wife, he might have guessed at it because he knew that they knew each other, he may just have been waiting for
anyone to show up, it may have been dumb luck, maybe, maybe, maybe…
Simply assuming that because you showed up a god must have caused it though is just bad reasoning.
I do not think I fully explained this in my original post, but I do not see any correlation with the cracks in the pavement example.
See above. That the original sponsor cancelled does not imply that her cancellation was causal of your showing up – just that one event followed the other.