AB,
Just trying to think of a way to explain to you where you keep going wrong with the reference point error.
Imagine if I flipped a coin – heads I’d win, tails you’d win and it landed tails. Nothing remarkable there right? The odds after all were only 50:50, so presumably you wouldn’t invoke divine intervention for the coin coming up tails.
OK, now imagine that there were six of us and the winner would be the one whose number came up on a rolled dice. The odds would be only 1:6 so whoever won probably wouldn’t say, “that must have been god’s doing then”. It was just dumb luck.
Notice that there’s no pre-selection going on, but notice too that someone was bound to win.
OK, now imagine that the Fred bought a ticket for the UK lottery and won. The odds are about 1:14 million, and Fred might at that point be daft enough to think there was something special about him winning. Again though, somebody had to win only Camelot neither knew nor cared who it would be.
And so on. Let’s say it was a global lottery with seven billion tickets, and someone was bound to win. Would that mean that that person was somehow predetermined to win? Of course not – if the same lottery was run again the winner would almost certainly be someone else.
The same is true for the universe. Given the colossal number of events from which singe cell life could emerge, it would be highly likely to do so – probably many times in many places. (And remember that, unless you’re daft enough to think that Adam and Eve sprang fully formed ex nihilo then single cell life is all that’s needed to get evolution started.)
Do you see the principle here? Regardless of whether the odds are 1:2, 1:6, 1:14 million or 1:bajillion, someone would be the winner. His (and your) big mistake though would be to think that it was intended to be him all along, and thus to marvel at the unlikelihood of that turning out to be the case.
I really can’t think of a simpler way to put it for you. If you start with “you” and work back you’re always going to make the same mistake you make here. Start bottom up instead though and you’ll see that your incredulity problem dissolves when you grasp the more cogent logic.