Alan's outline isn't really probability in any meaningful sense of the term since all he is saying is something like 'if there are more guesses in favour of God then God becomes more likely' which is, quite frankly, nuts for a variety of reasons. ...
No, I am not saying that. That was quick off the mark for this thread's first straw man. Congrats.
Not really, Alan, based on what you said, which included.
If the probability of those individual other explanations total less than 50%, it means that the probability of God having raised Jesus from the dead is greater than 50%. The percentages I quoted as examples, i.e. 12.5%, 6.25%, 3.125% and so on were part of a sequence where, though infinitely long, only total 25%, thus showing that it is possible to have an infinite number of other possible explanations, yet still have a total of less than 50%.
What you seem to be saying here is that probability of a single 'explanation', this being God, can be determined as being more likely by accounting for more than 50% of the total probabilities derived from all possible 'explanations'. So, my questions are;
1. What is the full list of possible 'explanations': 'God did it' is one, but what are the rest?
2. What method has been used to collect the data about each of the various 'explanations'.
3. What statistical tests are you using to determine probabilities in each case? You seem to be suggesting a multiple regression type of approach, and what levels of association and statistical significance have been found amongst all the variables that have been analysed?
I suspect, as I said earlier, that all you really doing here is juggling with guesses (with an added dash of confirmation bias) - unless of course you can show your workings.
