Author Topic: Grexit  (Read 34381 times)

Rhiannon

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Grexit
« on: June 25, 2015, 01:44:39 PM »

ad_orientem

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Re: Grexit
« Reply #1 on: June 25, 2015, 03:41:44 PM »
From the start I've been of the opinion that Greece should default. It's got to be better than what they're facing under the current bailout agreement: 30-40 years of austerity (and that's working on a 3% budget surplus).
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Jack Knave

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Re: Grexit
« Reply #2 on: June 25, 2015, 06:58:39 PM »
What ever happens the EU/EZ is stuffed. The true nasty colours of Brussels etc. is clear to the other bailout countries so if Greece stays in they know they will be treated like dogs as well, and if Greece leaves then the fallout on the EU dream will be a big ? over their heads (for the members and the markets) and when Greece gradually gets on track again the others will question their memberships.

The migration problem wont help either as this isn't going to stop soon.

Personally I think the 'Troika' are trying to discredit Syriza so the Greeks will have further elections and vote in a pro-EU party.

splashscuba

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Re: Grexit
« Reply #3 on: June 25, 2015, 07:38:45 PM »
From the start I've been of the opinion that Greece should default. It's got to be better than what they're facing under the current bailout agreement: 30-40 years of austerity (and that's working on a 3% budget surplus).
Leaving will be no picnic either. They're screwed either way.
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BashfulAnthony

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Re: Grexit
« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2015, 07:47:14 PM »
From the start I've been of the opinion that Greece should default. It's got to be better than what they're facing under the current bailout agreement: 30-40 years of austerity (and that's working on a 3% budget surplus).
Leaving will be no picnic either. They're screwed either way.


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« Last Edit: June 25, 2015, 09:46:34 PM by BashfulAnthony »
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jeremyp

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Re: Grexit
« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2015, 09:44:38 PM »
From the start I've been of the opinion that Greece should default. It's got to be better than what they're facing under the current bailout agreement: 30-40 years of austerity (and that's working on a 3% budget surplus).
Leaving will be no picnic either. They're screwed either way.

Yes they are screwed.  However, if they leave, I think they will be more screwed but for a much shorter period of time. 
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Owlswing

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Re: Grexit
« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2015, 09:48:52 PM »
From the start I've been of the opinion that Greece should default. It's got to be better than what they're facing under the current bailout agreement: 30-40 years of austerity (and that's working on a 3% budget surplus).
Leaving will be no picnic either. They're screwed either way.

Yes they are screwed.  However, if they leave, I think they will be more screwed but for a much shorter period of time.

So, what are the bets on who will be next to quit/be forced out of the Euro Zone? If any?
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Rhiannon

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Re: Grexit
« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2015, 09:56:20 PM »
This is interesting. The German taxpayers might hope it's them.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/22/greece-eurozone-germans-single-currency

However, a fucked euro will screw the global economy. If it goes belly up it has to be done as orderly as possible. Otherwise we're talking depression, not recession.

I believe we're only minimally exposed to Greece though, so short term the hit shouldn't be too bad. With any luck there'll be some kind of contingency plan in place by the time the whole currency implodes. Bloody stupid idea.

Of course Putin is throwing an interesting spanner in the works by getting all cosy. Just what Obama would hate - Greece being backed by Russia instead of the EU.

jeremyp

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Re: Grexit
« Reply #8 on: June 25, 2015, 10:27:55 PM »


So, what are the bets on who will be next to quit/be forced out of the Euro Zone? If any?

Hopefully nobody or it'll make the 2008 crisis look like a picnic.
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Rhiannon

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Re: Grexit
« Reply #9 on: June 25, 2015, 10:48:33 PM »


So, what are the bets on who will be next to quit/be forced out of the Euro Zone? If any?

Hopefully nobody or it'll make the 2008 crisis look like a picnic.

I don't see anyone being forced out. Some might choose to leave though.

Jack Knave

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Re: Grexit
« Reply #10 on: June 26, 2015, 06:51:42 PM »
From the start I've been of the opinion that Greece should default. It's got to be better than what they're facing under the current bailout agreement: 30-40 years of austerity (and that's working on a 3% budget surplus).
Leaving will be no picnic either. They're screwed either way.
There's no legal mechanism for them to leave the EZ. Though that didn't stop the EU from bailing them out so...

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Re: Grexit
« Reply #11 on: June 27, 2015, 07:14:34 AM »
It's difficult to see how Greece can avoid default given the announcement of the referendum. If no decision can be made until after the 5th of July they are bot going to receive the bailout before the end of the deadline at the end of the month.

It's becoming an 'interesting' situation.
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floo

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Re: Grexit
« Reply #12 on: June 27, 2015, 12:47:37 PM »
I suspect something may be cobbled together, for fear of Greece turning to Russia!

L.A.

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Re: Grexit
« Reply #13 on: June 27, 2015, 02:30:15 PM »
I suspect something may be cobbled together, for fear of Greece turning to Russia!

I'm not sure Mr Putin would be all that supportive if it actually comes to forking out cash.
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floo

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Re: Grexit
« Reply #14 on: June 27, 2015, 05:06:44 PM »
The Greek bailout extension has been refused. Now what?

L.A.

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Re: Grexit
« Reply #15 on: June 27, 2015, 06:16:02 PM »
The Greek bailout extension has been refused. Now what?

Probably not the time to book a holiday in Greece.
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Jack Knave

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Re: Grexit
« Reply #16 on: June 27, 2015, 07:25:22 PM »
It's difficult to see how Greece can avoid default given the announcement of the referendum. If no decision can be made until after the 5th of July they are bot going to receive the bailout before the end of the deadline at the end of the month.

It's becoming an 'interesting' situation.
They asked for an extension to the bailout but I gather they have been refused. If neither side budges now it is crash time and we are into unknown territory.

Jack Knave

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Re: Grexit
« Reply #17 on: June 27, 2015, 07:28:34 PM »
I suspect something may be cobbled together, for fear of Greece turning to Russia!
I think it has gone so far now that for either side to flinch will mean major embarrassment. Only Syriza can now flinch now and I think they have what they always wanted - to say they have been pushed by unreasonable people.

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Re: Grexit
« Reply #18 on: June 28, 2015, 09:22:54 AM »
I have been a bit confused about this referendum.  Does it refer to the loan repayment due within the next day or so, or does it refer to the next repayment due in mid-July?  Or, is it designed to cover both?
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ad_orientem

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Re: Grexit
« Reply #19 on: June 28, 2015, 11:11:53 AM »
I have been a bit confused about this referendum.  Does it refer to the loan repayment due within the next day or so, or does it refer to the next repayment due in mid-July?  Or, is it designed to cover both?

As I understand it refers to the whole package, that is, not only the repayments but the reforms which the IMF and EU want Greece to implement.
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floo

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Re: Grexit
« Reply #20 on: June 28, 2015, 01:58:12 PM »
The Greek Government seems to be blaming everyone but themselves, and previous Greek Governments for the mess they are in. From what I gather there has been mismanagement of their finances for many years.

ad_orientem

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Re: Grexit
« Reply #21 on: June 28, 2015, 02:23:50 PM »
The Greek Government seems to be blaming everyone but themselves, and previous Greek Governments for the mess they are in. From what I gather there has been mismanagement of their finances for many years.

And they're mostly right. The IMF, especially, is nothing more than a bully.
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floo

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Re: Grexit
« Reply #22 on: June 28, 2015, 02:58:29 PM »
The Greek Government seems to be blaming everyone but themselves, and previous Greek Governments for the mess they are in. From what I gather there has been mismanagement of their finances for many years.

And they're mostly right. The IMF, especially, is nothing more than a bully.

RUBBISH! Greece has cocked things up BIG TIME!

ad_orientem

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Re: Grexit
« Reply #23 on: June 28, 2015, 03:15:16 PM »
The Greek Government seems to be blaming everyone but themselves, and previous Greek Governments for the mess they are in. From what I gather there has been mismanagement of their finances for many years.

And they're mostly right. The IMF, especially, is nothing more than a bully.

RUBBISH! Greece has cocked things up BIG TIME!

No one is denying that Greece had, and still has, many problems, the main one being tax collection. However, the current government can't really be blamed for that. Many reforms have been implemented, with varying degrees of success, but both the IMF and EU are are being unreasonable. The austerity measures they have demanded have already caused the Greek economy to shrink by 25%. How on earth is that supposed to turn the Greek economy around? Not only that but the ordinary Greek citizen is supposed to bear the brunt of previous Greek governments' mismanagement and IMF/EU bullying? It's complete madness.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2015, 03:33:16 PM by ad_orientem »
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BashfulAnthony

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Re: Grexit
« Reply #24 on: June 28, 2015, 03:31:42 PM »

Greece has only itself to blame.  It mismanaged its economy massively;  low taxes:  not enough money acquired from taxation; plus horrific levels of evasion, all unchecked; ridiculous pension arrangements, often amounting to 92% of finishing salary; overspending, multiplied  by its entry into the EU, when borrowing became easier, and the Greek Government was allowed to borrow huge amounts, and then went on a spending spree:  finishing up owing some £300 billion, far more debt than they could ever sustain.  Then, when bailed out, and with creditors expecting their money back, entirely reasonably, they whine and squirm.. We could all do that, personally and on a national basis:  borrow more than you can sustain, then balk about paying balk.  Other counties, Spain, for example, must look on and think it'a one law for one, and one for the rest.  Greece should be allowed to leave the Euro, and the EU,  and make its own way.. You make your bed, you must lie on it.  It would be better for them, in the long run, and for everyone else.  To suggest they are being bullied is an absurdity: the IMF, and the ECB are fully entitled to insist on payments being made:  they would be remiss to do otherwise. The Greeks have been given huge leeway:  it's time to end it.





























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It is my commandment that you love one another."