Do you believe in hell?

[cyberman]

In the case of life on other worlds we have not the foggiest idea how many sides the dice has.

Rubbish! Off the top of my head I would say that the number of sides is not very high. The planet would have to be composed of elements capable of interaction to form compounds, it would have to be within a certain band of distance from its sun, and probably a few other things which a chemist/biologist would know about, but that's all.

(a) We are talking about planets which have life on them, not planets with conditions capable of sustaining life. The two need not be the same value.

(b) I see the "rubbish" when I say we don't know what the odds are... but I don't see the odds. What are the odds, Len?

I don't know what the odds are any more than you do, but they certainly don't run into the millions you were claiming.

Please specify where I made such an absurd claim. I explicitly said we have no idea whatsoever what the odds are.

For someone who prides himself on his rational devotion to logic, you really are careless with words like "certainly"! Upon what evidence do you base this certainty? Because I know you don't believe anything without evidence.

[BashfulAnthony]

In the case of life on other worlds we have not the foggiest idea how many sides the dice has.

Rubbish! Off the top of my head I would say that the number of sides is not very high. The planet would have to be composed of elements capable of interaction to form compounds, it would have to be within a certain band of distance from its sun, and probably a few other things which a chemist/biologist would know about, but that's all.

(a) We are talking about planets which have life on them, not planets with conditions capable of sustaining life. The two need not be the same value.

(b) I see the "rubbish" when I say we don't know what the odds are... but I don't see the odds. What are the odds, Len?

I don't know what the odds are any more than you do, but they certainly don't run into the millions you were claiming.

Professor Andrew Watson, of the University of East Anglia, does have an idea:


He suggests the number of evolutionary steps needed to create intelligent life, in the case of humans, is four. These probably include the emergence of single-celled bacteria, complex cells, specialized cells allowing complex life forms, and intelligent life with an established language.

“Complex life is separated from the simplest life forms by several very unlikely steps and therefore will be much less common. Intelligence is one step further, so it is much less common still,” said Prof Watson.

His model, published in the journal Astrobiology, suggests an upper limit for the probability of each step occurring is 10 per cent or less, so the chances of intelligent life emerging is low – less than 0.01 per cent over four billion years.

[Leonard James]

Please specify where I made such an absurd claim. I explicitly said we have no idea whatsoever what the odds are.

This is the analogy I was referring to, and that you were using as an "argument".

 "But if it was a thousand sided dice we would not be so sure. If it was a million sided dice we would think it unlikely to throw a six after a thousand throws."

[BeRational]

I think another reason that makes me tend toward life on other planets, is what you have to believe to think there is none.

You have to believe that this is the only planet in all the many billions of planets that must exist that have the ability to have life as we know it, and this is only life as we know it. We do not know what the limits of life are.

The biggest issue for me is the emergence of life from non life. Once life has begun, then evolution will take over and shape the life (given the required possible variation) for the situation on that planet.
We do not know how likely that is, but you would have to believe that we are special, and it has only happened once.
This could be the case, but it seems spectacularly self centred the think this place the place where we are is the only place and has some special significance. When we look into the universe, there is nothing special about this place.

It could be that we are alone, but I think you have to accept more unlikely things to think that we are.

[Leonard James]

This could be the case, but it seems spectacularly self centred the think this place the place where we are is the only place and has some special significance. When we look into the universe, there is nothing special about this place.

It could be that we are alone, but I think you have to accept more unlikely things to think that we are.

Sadly, that is what believers think ... that they ARE special, that "God" created them to worship and obey him.

There appears to be no way we can rescue them from the illusion, and I quite understand that. The carrot is very tempting and the stick very threatening if you are credulous enough to let the story override your scepticism.

[Shaker]

Why are some people so adamant intelligent life on Earth is unique, even though the universe is so vast?

It puts a bit of a dent in their narcissism, I guess. Narcissism and monotheism go hand in hand after all.

[BeRational]

Just had a visit by the local Jehovas witnesses.

Nice people, but not a logical thought between them.

Nice chat though, but I told them not to waste the magazine on me.

[Shaker]

His model, published in the journal Astrobiology, suggests an upper limit for the probability of each step occurring is 10 per cent or less, so the chances of intelligent life emerging is low – less than 0.01 per cent over four billion years.

That makes no sense without a given volume of space/area as well as time.

[Alien]

Why are some people so adamant intelligent life on Earth is unique, even though the universe is so vast?

It puts a bit of a dent in their narcissism, I guess. Narcissism and monotheism go hand in hand after all.

So it is only monotheists who think there is unlikely to be intelligent life on other planets?

Just in case you are wondering about my own view, I really don't know what the chances are.

[Leonard James]

Why are some people so adamant intelligent life on Earth is unique, even though the universe is so vast?

It puts a bit of a dent in their narcissism, I guess. Narcissism and monotheism go hand in hand after all.

So it is only monotheists who think there is unlikely to be intelligent life on other planets?

Just in case you are wondering about my own view, I really don't know what the chances are.

Nor does anybody else, but we know enough to claim that the probability of it is not so remote as they like to think.

[Alien]

Why are some people so adamant intelligent life on Earth is unique, even though the universe is so vast?

It puts a bit of a dent in their narcissism, I guess. Narcissism and monotheism go hand in hand after all.

So it is only monotheists who think there is unlikely to be intelligent life on other planets?

Just in case you are wondering about my own view, I really don't know what the chances are.

Nor does anybody else, but we know enough to claim that the probability of it is not so remote as they like to think.

Do we? It seems very much like guesswork all round to me.

[Leonard James]

Do we? It seems very much like guesswork all round to me.

Naturally! I wouldn't expect anything else from a believer. 

[Brownie]

If you do believe in hell, what do you think it is like?

If as a Christian you don't believe in the place, why not, presumably you believe in heaven? Do you believe non believers cease to be when they die?

I don't believe in a physical Hell, a place of eternal torment.  Churches used to use that idea to frighten people into believing.  I am sure some cease to exist altogether when they die, I wouldn't be arrogant enough to presume who does and doesn't.

There can be Hell on earth for some!  No doubt about that. Also people often suffer terribly when they have done something wrong, it never leaves them no matter how much they are forgiven and try to forgive themselves.  I cannot see God punishing someone again if they have been through torment already.

[Alien]

Do we? It seems very much like guesswork all round to me.

Naturally! I wouldn't expect anything else from a believer. 

But it isn't from you? That must mean you have some actual figures we can work on.

Please quote them.

[Leonard James]

Do we? It seems very much like guesswork all round to me.

Naturally! I wouldn't expect anything else from a believer. 

But it isn't from you? That must mean you have some actual figures we can work on.

Please quote them.

Figures  aren't needed when the facts are obvious. I have quoted the case as I see it, Alan. I didn't expect you to accept it, and you have not disappointed me.

We will have to leave it at that.

[Alien]

Do we? It seems very much like guesswork all round to me.

Naturally! I wouldn't expect anything else from a believer. 

But it isn't from you? That must mean you have some actual figures we can work on.

Please quote them.

Figures  aren't needed when the facts are obvious. I have quoted the case as I see it, Alan. I didn't expect you to accept it, and you have not disappointed me.

We will have to leave it at that.

So tell me on what evidence you decided it is obvious, please.

[cyberman]

Please specify where I made such an absurd claim. I explicitly said we have no idea whatsoever what the odds are.

This is the analogy I was referring to, and that you were using as an "argument".

 "But if it was a thousand sided dice we would not be so sure. If it was a million sided dice we would think it unlikely to throw a six after a thousand throws."

But I never claimed that the odds of there being life on other worlds was in the millions. I was pointing out that we don't know. I imagine you lack what is required to understand the concept of admitting you don't know something, but that's the way it is.

You seem to imagine I am saying that it is unlikely that there is life on other planets. I am saying no such thing.

[cyberman]

Why are some people so adamant intelligent life on Earth is unique, even though the universe is so vast?

Who is adamant that that is the case?

[cyberman]

This could be the case, but it seems spectacularly self centred the think this place the place where we are is the only place and has some special significance.

Sadly, that is what believers think ...

Well, I'm a believer (fuck knows why you're bringing religion into this, but there it is) and I think no such thing.

[cyberman]

So it is only monotheists who think there is unlikely to be intelligent life on other planets?


[/quote]

I am a monotheist, and I don't think it's unlikely that there is intelligent life on other planets.

[cyberman]

Nor does anybody else, but we know enough to claim that the probability of it is not so remote as they like to think.

Who has claimed that the probability is remote?

[Leonard James]

You seem to imagine I am saying that it is unlikely that there is life on other planets. I am saying no such thing.

Then I apologise for misunderstanding you.

[cyberman]

You seem to imagine I am saying that it is unlikely that there is life on other planets. I am saying no such thing.

Then I apologise for misunderstanding you.

hmmm

I am not sure how you could misunderstand me saying "We have no idea at all what the odds are" and think I said "I think I know what the odds are".....

But thanks, apology accepted x

[Dicky Underpants]

So it is only monotheists who think there is unlikely to be intelligent life on other planets?

I am a monotheist, and I don't think it's unlikely that there is intelligent life on other planets.
[/quote]

And even the rather odious C.S. Lewis wrote about such possibilities. He even attempted a re-enactment of the "Original Sin" scenario in one of his novels. I believe trying to give such a specifically Christian slant to such speculations to be especially bonkers, but full marks to him for having the imagination conceive such possibilities.
I'm told that intelligent life has evolved here on earth - though I rather doubt the quoted figures about how much there is - and relatively 'primitive' life has succeeded in the most incredibly hostile environments here, so the idea that life could not evolve elsewhere in such a vast universe seems small-minded and egocentric in the extreme.

[cyberman]

the idea that life could not evolve elsewhere in such a vast universe seems small-minded and egocentric in the extreme.

I am not aware of anyone having expressed such an idea, so you seem to be getting terribly indignant about something which hasn't happened!