Labour leadership race

[Hope]

In view of the poll that puts Jeremy Corbin as leading in the race, is there any chance of a 1980s-style split in the party, the last time Labour moved as left-wing as Mr Corbin might likely take the party, a split that saw the SDP coming into being?

[Nearly Sane]

In view of the poll that puts Jeremy Corbin as leading in the race, is there any chance of a 1980s-style split in the party, the last time Labour moved as left-wing as Mr Corbin might likely take the party, a split that saw the SDP coming into being?

If he wins, yes but it is a much harder road to hoe now, any split is  likely as per the SDP to be flanked by a Lib Dem/UkIp pincer movement. The costs are much greater than they were in the 80s when a big card file would have worked. I think in the short term some form of protest would be more likely in an attempt to overthrow Corbyn (whom I quite like but disagree with).

Whoever wins will lose longer term. Better to be leader in 2025, only way Labour get in 2020 is if Tories do something to lose it
 

[Anchorman]

Whoever is elected, they have a horrendous job trying to convince the voters that the Labour Party has any vestige of principle left.
They're a party looking for a spine so the shiver can climb up it.


Here's a brilliant valediction of Labour from the Wee Ginger Dug.
https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2015/07/21/the-party-which-ran-away/

[L.A.]

I'd wager that Corbin is Cameron's preferred candidate - it's as if Labour had a death wish.

[Jack Knave]

Firstly, I think NS is right in that the only way Labour could win 2020 would be for the Tories to lose it. In fact the political wisdom states that parties rarely win elections but only do so by being the least worse one going. That said, the state of the political milieu these days could mean 2020 is up for grabs.

Yvette Cooper sounds as vacuous and as plastic as Ed Miliband. Andy Burnham comes a cross as the usual political animal and sounds like a safe dull bet. Liz Kendall is the keen puppy dog who is making bold moves but could fizzle out and sounds too much like a Tory. All three are just trying to adjust their sails to suit what they see as where the wind is blowing but have no personal convictions and ideas of their own, and are in effect trying to 'buy' their way into No. 10.

The only one coming across as 'real' is Jeremy Corbyn and with the likes of austerity and the Greek type anger at this he may be the one who could attract a good portion of the people to him. Sadly it is mainly the Party and party machine that will decide and they tend to be more in the other threes' bubble. If he does manage to win it then we could see meltdown within the Labour party but with the people behind him and the party.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Given the successful Tory spin machine would make any candidate into the worse possible candidate it might as well be Jeremy Corbyn.
In any case the tories haven't been voted back for their obligatory 3 terms so again they might as well have Jeremy. By the time the tories have finished with the country we will be needing another Attlee rather than another Blair. Corbyn though is neither.

[Nearly Sane]

On the subject of 2020, there will be a set of boundary changes which will make the Tories much stronger than in 2015. On that alone a Labour win is almost impossible. However, there is the referendum omn Europe which is a game changer - though I can't see any party other than UKIP benefitting much from that, and they won;t be big enough. There is a chance that we could seea split in both main parties after it so who knows but in general other than having to sink the money for 4 years - the Tories at 5/2 on as the largest party at 2020 are a safe bet.

[Harrowby Hall]

The reality of elections in the UK is that they are won in the centre ground. The Comservatives understand this.

Labour has to keep reminding itself of this fact because it suffers from a chronic medium-term memory problem. It has forgotten the Foot/Kinnock years.

Tony Blair understood this and was successful. In general, his government was successful and acceptable. That he is reviled today is nothing to do with his ability to govern but because he made a foolish friendship with an idiot.

If Corbyn becomes party leader then he will see national support drift away. This may be exacerbated by UKIP's apparent attractiveness to a significant portion of the uneducated working and lower-middle class segment of its support base.

If Corbyn becomes party leader, watch Osborne's face: I have seen the future and it smarms.

[Nearly Sane]

The reality of elections in the UK is that they are won in the centre ground. The Comservatives understand this.

Labour has to keep reminding itself of this fact because it suffers from a chronic medium-term memory problem. It has forgotten the Foot/Kinnock years.

Tony Blair understood this and was successful. In general, his government was successful and acceptable. That he is reviled today is nothing to do with his ability to govern but because he made a foolish friendship with an idiot.

If Corbyn becomes party leader then he will see national support drift away. This may be exacerbated by UKIP's apparent attractiveness to a significant portion of the uneducated working and lower-middle class segment of its support base.

If Corbyn becomes party leader, watch Osborne's face: I have seen the future and it smarms.

Except the 'centre ground' is not a real thing - it implies that there is a thing which is constant - it's not. Politics is too simplistically defined by this fairly vacuous left/right split - which is part of the reason the Labour party screwed up in reacting to UKIP. The battle for 2020 is between George/Boris/Teresa - and what happens in Scotland and Europe. The Labour party under the bastard love child of Jesus/Mohammed/Messi would lose unless the Tories commit some form of auto-da-fe.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

The reality of elections in the UK is that they are won in the centre ground. The Comservatives understand this.

Labour has to keep reminding itself of this fact because it suffers from a chronic medium-term memory problem. It has forgotten the Foot/Kinnock years.

Tony Blair understood this and was successful. In general, his government was successful and acceptable. That he is reviled today is nothing to do with his ability to govern but because he made a foolish friendship with an idiot.

If Corbyn becomes party leader then he will see national support drift away. This may be exacerbated by UKIP's apparent attractiveness to a significant portion of the uneducated working and lower-middle class segment of its support base.

If Corbyn becomes party leader, watch Osborne's face: I have seen the future and it smarms.

Labour have no chance under any leader at the moment. Those who voted Tory will do so next time no matter how shafted they get because of a stubborn refusal to admit on was wrong.
Other than that George Osborne gets further to the right of centre ground by the week so, if your theory is correct Osborne should lose......Unless you really mean that the centre ground is wherever it is spun.

[wigginhall]

Labour seem a pointless party now, except as a support group to the Tory party.   They are certainly a total shambles right now, and probably in the next couple of years.   I think they are still suffering from a post-Blair nervous breakdown, but any solution seems tedious to me.   

[Nearly Sane]

Labour seem a pointless party now, except as a support group to the Tory party.   They are certainly a total shambles right now, and probably in the next couple of years.   I think they are still suffering from a post-Blair nervous breakdown, but any solution seems tedious to me.

It's one of the reasons I struggle with all the abstaining stuff they are doing - it would be easier just to say NO to the Tories - this trying to look 'responsible' while arguing against the position you are taking and having major rebellions in opposition just looks weak.

[wigginhall]

Labour seem a pointless party now, except as a support group to the Tory party.   They are certainly a total shambles right now, and probably in the next couple of years.   I think they are still suffering from a post-Blair nervous breakdown, but any solution seems tedious to me.

It's one of the reasons I struggle with all the abstaining stuff they are doing - it would be easier just to say NO to the Tories - this trying to look 'responsible' while arguing against the position you are taking and having major rebellions in opposition just looks weak.

Yes, I found Harman's argument quite strange.  She seemed to be saying that Labour should be appealing to the people who voted Tory, not the people who voted Labour.   The trouble with that argument is that they may find that the latter start to shrink!  Well, Tory-lite satisfies nobody - except the Tories.

[L.A.]

While I have to confess, Blair is not my favourite politician - I can't fault his analysis of the current situation:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33619645

"He recalled the 1979 election, when Labour adopted "the theory that the electorate is stupid" and responded to a Conservative victory by moving to the left, going on to lose three more elections.
'Back to the 1980s'
May's election was "out of the playbook of the 1980s" with the Conservatives seen as the party of economic competence and Labour of compassion, he said, adding that the party should avoid repeating past defeats by occupying the centre ground of politics."

It seems incredible to me that Labour can't see the bleeding obvious

[wigginhall]

It is quite funny watching Nu Labour people pooping their pants over Corbyn's showing so far.   "But, but, but, our natural allies are the Tories, not left-wing people."   

[jeremyp]

only way Labour get in 2020 is if Tories do something to lose it

To my eyes the Tories are doing a pretty good job of making themselves really unpopular.

This is all depressingly familiar.  Last time, Gordon Brown resigned and they took months to elect Miliband.  In the meantime, Her Majesty's Opposition was absent without official leave.  Now, the same thing is happening again and this time there isn't anybody in the government to curb the worst excesses of Cameron's mob.

[Hope]

... this trying to look 'responsible' while arguing against the position you are taking and having major rebellions in opposition just looks weak.

It's simply reinforcing the fact that they are weak - not just that it looks weak.

In a way, Ed M completely missed the boat - pulling the party away from the centre towards the left, but into a non-man's land somewhere in between the two, where there are very few Labour supporters.

[L.A.]

It is quite funny watching Nu Labour people pooping their pants over Corbyn's showing so far.   "But, but, but, our natural allies are the Tories, not left-wing people."

I'd say it's a bit more fundamental than that.

While there might be  people on the Celtic fringes who still have the Socialist dream, the English electorate have no such illusions. They want a centre-right government to give them the prosperity that they know is possible.

If the Labour party can't get their head around that, they are finished.

[Hope]

I'd say it's a bit more fundamental than that.

While there might be  people on the Celtic fringes who still have the Socialist dream, the English electorate have no such illusions. They want a centre-right government to give them the prosperity that they know is possible.

If the Labour party can't get their head around that, they are finished.

I think the problem Labour has nowadays is that many of their original natural supporters have moved away from that economic level to higher ones, with greater ambition to succeed, thus bringing them into the sphere of the Tories' policies.  Prior to May I would have said that their only 'block' of votes would be in S. Wales, Northern England and Scotland, but even that last is no loger guaranteed.  It is interesting to listen to staunch Labour supporters in S. Wales moaning about the paucity of the Labour Government in Cardiff.

[L.A.]

I'd say it's a bit more fundamental than that.

While there might be  people on the Celtic fringes who still have the Socialist dream, the English electorate have no such illusions. They want a centre-right government to give them the prosperity that they know is possible.

If the Labour party can't get their head around that, they are finished.

I think the problem Labour has nowadays is that many of their original natural supporters have moved away from that economic level to higher ones, with greater ambition to succeed, thus bringing them into the sphere of the Tories' policies.  Prior to May I would have said that their only 'block' of votes would be in S. Wales, Northern England and Scotland, but even that last is no loger guaranteed.  It is interesting to listen to staunch Labour supporters in S. Wales moaning about the paucity of the Labour Government in Cardiff.

I would say that barring unforeseen circumstances or major gaffs - this government will deliver prosperity for the masses - which would leave a left wing Labour party well and truly in the wilderness.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

I'd say it's a bit more fundamental than that.

While there might be  people on the Celtic fringes who still have the Socialist dream, the English electorate have no such illusions. They want a centre-right government to give them the prosperity that they know is possible.

If the Labour party can't get their head around that, they are finished.

I think the problem Labour has nowadays is that many of their original natural supporters have moved away from that economic level to higher ones, with greater ambition to succeed, thus bringing them into the sphere of the Tories' policies.  Prior to May I would have said that their only 'block' of votes would be in S. Wales, Northern England and Scotland, but even that last is no loger guaranteed.  It is interesting to listen to staunch Labour supporters in S. Wales moaning about the paucity of the Labour Government in Cardiff.

I would say that barring unforeseen circumstances or major gaffs - this government will deliver prosperity for the masses - which would leave a left wing Labour party well and truly in the wilderness.

And how is prosperity going to be delivered to the masses?

[BashfulAnthony]

I'd say it's a bit more fundamental than that.

While there might be  people on the Celtic fringes who still have the Socialist dream, the English electorate have no such illusions. They want a centre-right government to give them the prosperity that they know is possible.

If the Labour party can't get their head around that, they are finished.

I think the problem Labour has nowadays is that many of their original natural supporters have moved away from that economic level to higher ones, with greater ambition to succeed, thus bringing them into the sphere of the Tories' policies.  Prior to May I would have said that their only 'block' of votes would be in S. Wales, Northern England and Scotland, but even that last is no loger guaranteed.  It is interesting to listen to staunch Labour supporters in S. Wales moaning about the paucity of the Labour Government in Cardiff.

I would say that barring unforeseen circumstances or major gaffs - this government will deliver prosperity for the masses - which would leave a left wing Labour party well and truly in the wilderness.

I assume that is a tongue-in-cheek comment.

[Hope]

And how is prosperity going to be delivered to the masses?

Probably through a growth in meaningful jobs, and a rise in wages (the latter has already begun to happen according to all the experts)

[floo]

In view of the poll that puts Jeremy Corbin as leading in the race, is there any chance of a 1980s-style split in the party, the last time Labour moved as left-wing as Mr Corbin might likely take the party, a split that saw the SDP coming into being?

If Labour doesn't wish to be elected again for a very long time Corbin is the right person to lead the party! I think Yvette Cooper would be the best person to head up Labour.

[Nearly Sane]

[It's simply reinforcing the fact that they are weak - not just that it looks weak.

In a way, Ed M completely missed the boat - pulling the party away from the centre towards the left, but into a non-man's land somewhere in between the two, where there are very few Labour supporters.

I think the whole idea of Red Ed is a media creation, he made a couple of vaguely sounding left noises, not much specific and where it was it generally polled well. Remember in Scotland they lost votes for being percieved as not being left enough.


It's more about mood music. The Tories have succesfully portrayed the crash as Labour's fault and teh deficit as entirely Labour's creation.  It's going to be difficult for Labour to fight back against that unless the Tories do something that is perceived as a giant mistake by most of teh electorate - this side of the 2020 election, the only likely issue to cause that will be the European referendum