Author Topic: Prepare Yourselves: The Great Migration Will Be With Us For Decades  (Read 3117 times)

Keith Maitland

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"It is not war, but money, that drives people abroad. That is not going to change any time soon"

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OH MY WORLD!

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Re: Prepare Yourselves: The Great Migration Will Be With Us For Decades
« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2015, 05:42:34 PM »
Well our history is one of migration isn't it?

Udayana

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Re: Prepare Yourselves: The Great Migration Will Be With Us For Decades
« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2015, 06:19:44 PM »
Obviously money is the main driver, but it also drives conflicts too. War just changes situations very rapidly.

I don't know where anyone gets the idea that people will suddenly stop moving around the planet.
Ah, but I was so much older then ... I'm younger than that now

Nearly Sane

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Re: Prepare Yourselves: The Great Migration Will Be With Us For Decades
« Reply #3 on: September 07, 2015, 07:54:50 AM »
It's a curious article, given that it was from a right wing commentator, to only focus on war or money. One of the great pitches of capitalism is about the freedom for the individual. To ignore this is either stupid, which Fraser Nelson is not, or a deliberate attempt to simplify matters, one suspects as it allows both a more contrarian article to be written in Fraser's normal style, and to avoid a central issue about 'progress' brought about neo liberal foreign policy.

If we tout how marvellous freedom and democracy are, we should not be surprised that where people gain more money but do not have freedoms we take for granted, that they might want to move from regimes which do not provide those. We have a patchy commitment to freedom and democracy in regimes we have supported and support due to our view of realpolitik. Note the support for Saudi here, where we laud any tiny progress and happily sell arms to them while they act in as thuggish a manner as ISIS.

Hope

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Re: Prepare Yourselves: The Great Migration Will Be With Us For Decades
« Reply #4 on: September 07, 2015, 08:19:45 AM »
Keith, the problem with Fraser Nelson's article is that it only deals with part of the problem - those who had the money to pay people smugglers in the first place.  We also need to remember that the folk who we have been watching land in Europe's Mediterranean nations over the last few months aren't Syrians alone; they have been Afghans, Bangladeshis, Somalis, Africans, etc. as well.  Looking at various reports, such as from the Voice of America, Yahoo News, Newser.com, somewhere between 330K and 365K migrants have tried to reach Europe across the Mediterranean so far this year. 

According to the Guardian (2nd September 2015) over 4 million Syrians have fled from their homes since the war started in 2011.

According to the UN Relief and Works Agency there are some 450K Palestinian and Syrian refugees in refugee camps in Lebanon, and that doesn't take the Palestinians and Syrians in refugee camps in Turkey and Jordan into account.  Most of the refugees in these camps are those who CAN'T afford the services of the people smugglers.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2015, 08:22:50 AM by Hope »
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Nearly Sane

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Re: Prepare Yourselves: The Great Migration Will Be With Us For Decades
« Reply #5 on: September 07, 2015, 08:54:52 AM »
Sorry, Hope, not getting the point you are making here. Yes, there will be those who do not have the money to pay smugglers, but the article is surely unrelated to that? Its argument is that there is less conflict than previously and that most countries are doing better so that the motivation for those other than mainly Syrians is economic.


As I have said, I disagree because I see it as more complex, but individuals not having the cash to people smugglers could be argued as supportive of the article, but not contrary to it.

Hope

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Re: Prepare Yourselves: The Great Migration Will Be With Us For Decades
« Reply #6 on: September 07, 2015, 09:10:17 AM »
Sorry, Hope, not getting the point you are making here.
I was pointing out 2 things: firstly, the article deals only with the 350,000-odd refugees that have made their way to Europe via the Mediterranean - and seems to assume that they are the whole issue.  Secondly, the reason why people have been leaving Syria in their thousands is all to do with war.  It isn't to do with money.
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Nearly Sane

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Re: Prepare Yourselves: The Great Migration Will Be With Us For Decades
« Reply #7 on: September 07, 2015, 09:25:54 AM »
I suggest you read the article again, it specifically explains that the issue is not about the 350,000 and about the far larger overall migration which is happening. Further it notes that the Syrian refugees are moving because of war but that is only a tiny part of the overall migration. 

Hope

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Re: Prepare Yourselves: The Great Migration Will Be With Us For Decades
« Reply #8 on: September 07, 2015, 10:19:01 AM »
I suggest you read the article again, it specifically explains that the issue is not about the 350,000 and about the far larger overall migration which is happening. Further it notes that the Syrian refugees are moving because of war but that is only a tiny part of the overall migration.
Sorry NS, the examples of refugees referred to are those entering Europe via the Mediterranean.  Look for instance, at the first paragraph.  Not only does it use these refugees as the opening gambit, the author also makes a pretty daft claim - that sailors on the Bulwark were expecting the "world’s hungry, wretched and destitute".  We all know that this kind of person would never be found on boats despatched by people smugglers - because they are the destitute, and not those who can pay the smugglers.  The next example is of the little boy found dead on the Turkish beach - who was dressed tidily and probably relatively expensively.  The third is of the Nigerian woman who had paid $1200 for the journey.

Nelson then goes on to say that the Great Migration is a result of the 'collapse of global poverty'.  Is this really true?  How many people have sought to move from the Middle East to Europe since the war in Syria started?

According to the UNHCR, in a 2014 report - "Syrian Refugees in Europe: What Europe can do to Ensure Protection and Solidarity",
Quote
Europe is shouldering only a small part of the Syrian refugee problem. Just four per cent of Syrian refugees have sought asylum in Europe.

Since the conflict began in March 2011, some 123,600 Syrians have sought asylum in Europe, not including Turkey. There are over 2.9 million refugees in countries immediately neighbouring Syria.
I believe that that total number is nearer 4 million now, and the number of asylum claims to Europe nearer 250K.

As such, I believe that this article is both incorrect in many of its assumptions, and also incorrect in its suggestion that 'the Great Migration' has suddenly started.  It's been going on for 4 years now (as far as Syria is concerned) and for far longer for other parts of the Middle East, let alone other parts of the world.  Ironically, Nelson seems to approach contradicting the bulk of the article when he starts talking about the civil war in Yemen only then to compound the earlier error by suggesting that 'the Great Migration' is a 21st Century phenomenon.  It has been going on since the 2nd World War, but has been hidden to a degree because it has often been within countries, and into neighbouring countries - but also visible through boat people travelling thousands of miles to Australia.  Just because it has recently started to involve Europe doesn't mean that its new.
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Harrowby Hall

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Re: Prepare Yourselves: The Great Migration Will Be With Us For Decades
« Reply #9 on: September 08, 2015, 10:04:18 AM »
Maitland isn't exactly a native American name, is it?
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Re: Prepare Yourselves: The Great Migration Will Be With Us For Decades
« Reply #10 on: September 08, 2015, 10:30:35 AM »
"It is not war, but money, that drives people abroad. That is not going to change any time soon"

Read here:

http://tinyurl.com/nbkqyvy

You are such a sad little person! ::)

jakswan

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Re: Prepare Yourselves: The Great Migration Will Be With Us For Decades
« Reply #11 on: September 08, 2015, 01:24:34 PM »
Note the support for Saudi here, where we laud any tiny progress and happily sell arms to them while they act in as thuggish a manner as ISIS.

You can't see any difference between the Saudi regime and IS?
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Hope

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Re: Prepare Yourselves: The Great Migration Will Be With Us For Decades
« Reply #12 on: September 08, 2015, 02:16:47 PM »
You can't see any difference between the Saudi regime and IS?
One's a 'legitimate' regime, the other isn't.  However, how many human rights abuses have the Saudis permitted over the years?
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OH MY WORLD!

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Re: Prepare Yourselves: The Great Migration Will Be With Us For Decades
« Reply #13 on: September 08, 2015, 05:53:51 PM »
Probably not as many as the UK has committed over it's history.