What way for UK politics, now

[Hope]

I've been wondering whether the received wisdom that tells us that no party can win power unless it has a centrist viewpoint is possibly becoming less certain nowadays.  What with the growth of UKIP, the SNP and now Labour's move (lurch?) to the left is there an indication that perhaps the country's political positions are becoming more extreme.

[Anchorman]

Division, Hope - that's the way thimngs are going.
Labour will have serious issues trying to unite under Corbyn (many of whose policies with which I agree, btw).
He may have serious difficultties in commanding support, not only from his own MPs, but with the party in Scotland - the Scottish leader has expressed her opposition to him ion more than one occasion.
The days of the 'left' uniting are over.
SNP and Labour, while agreeing on many issues, may find the only way of burying the hatchet is by embedding it in each others' back.
Unless Corbyn is replaced by a 'soft' candidate, the Tories will win the next general election with an increased majority.
This will only fuel renewed campaigns for a second Scottish referendum, as, yet again Scots voted in one direction and were lumbered with a government they detest.

[Outrider]

I've been wondering whether the received wisdom that tells us that no party can win power unless it has a centrist viewpoint is possibly becoming less certain nowadays.  What with the growth of UKIP, the SNP and now Labour's move (lurch?) to the left is there an indication that perhaps the country's political positions are becoming more extreme.

Centrist for whom? At the last election the centre-ground was occupied by the Lib Dems, look how that went.

Whilst Labour spent the last election attempting to slide as close to the Tory agenda as they could whilst still remaining a fragment to their left, they abandoned huge swathes of their traditional support.

The real issue, though, is that this was exacerbated by the non-economic arguments - Tory and Labour authoritarianism vs nationalist sentiment.

How Corbyn handles the Scottish independence movement will be the key - if he satisfies enough Scots that he values Scotland then he may drag enough voters away from the SNP to revitalise Scottish Labour, which will be a huge boost. If not, given the common ground they have, it's possible that a formal alliance might be available with the SNP - that would most likely spell the end of the Union, as the SNP would demand another referendum (Sturgeon's already talking about the triggers she's putting into the manifesto for the next Scottish Parliamentary elections next year).

O.

[ekim]

Extremists are often prone to divisiveness but they do seem to wake up a sleepy electorate.  Perhaps it will encourage a new centre party to evolve from all other parties.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

For what it's worth, the Tories have also somehow managed to politically activate their constituency.

Who would have thought there were hundreds of thousands of conservatives willing to falsely skew opinion polls and received political wisdom prior to the election and maliciously skew the Labour leadership contest?

We kid ourselves if we think the electorate would be anywhere near poised to vote labour at the next general election if only
Jeremy Corbyn had not been voted in.

[Hope]

Who would have thought there were hundreds of thousands of conservatives willing to falsely skew opinion polls and received political wisdom prior to the election and maliciously skew the Labour leadership contest?

Do you have any evidence that this has occurred, Vlad?  After all, we know that at least one People's Assembly supporter tried to join the Labour Party in order to vote in this leadership election.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Who would have thought there were hundreds of thousands of conservatives willing to falsely skew opinion polls and received political wisdom prior to the election and maliciously skew the Labour leadership contest?

Do you have any evidence that this has occurred, Vlad?  After all, we know that at least one People's Assembly supporter tried to join the Labour Party in order to vote in this leadership election.

Are you trying to say that Conservative voters taking part in opinion poll surveys did not give false information? How else could the polls have been so wrong in favour of the conservative party?

Are you trying also to say that dishonest conservatives didn't use their £3 vote for Jeremy Corbyn?

[Jack Knave]

It is the same old story. The ruling class have lost touch with the peoples' lives. They have become the modern aristocrats who say, "Let them eat cake." - "Let them eat austerity."

Haven't people found it profoundly odd that the Labour elites didn't know what their grass root lot felt and thought? That they have been hit blindside by this and had no idea of this was coming, in their cosy Labour Party bubble.

Basically, the Neo-Liberal project has failed and is in its last gasps.

[Jack Knave]

Division, Hope - that's the way thimngs are going.
Labour will have serious issues trying to unite under Corbyn (many of whose policies with which I agree, btw).
He may have serious difficultties in commanding support, not only from his own MPs, but with the party in Scotland - the Scottish leader has expressed her opposition to him ion more than one occasion.
The days of the 'left' uniting are over.
SNP and Labour, while agreeing on many issues, may find the only way of burying the hatchet is by embedding it in each others' back.
Unless Corbyn is replaced by a 'soft' candidate, the Tories will win the next general election with an increased majority.
This will only fuel renewed campaigns for a second Scottish referendum, as, yet again Scots voted in one direction and were lumbered with a government they detest.

What effect will Corbyn have on the votes of the SNP? Will many return to Labour in May?

[Hope]

Centrist for whom? At the last election the centre-ground was occupied by the Lib Dems, look how that went.

I would disagree, O.  I would have placed the Lib-Dems to the left of Labour back in May, whilst to seemed to me that people felt that if we were to have a centre right Government we might as well have a right of centre party in charge of it.

[Hope]

Are you trying to say that Conservative voters taking part in opinion poll surveys did not give false information? How else could the polls have been so wrong in favour of the conservative party?

That's what I'm asking, Vlad.  Do you have any evidence that they did?  If you do, then I think that you know more than 95% of the population.

Are you trying also to say that dishonest conservatives didn't use their £3 vote for Jeremy Corbyn?

No, I'm saying that - going by the make up of the 3K whose applications were turned down - the 'dishonest' people (though just what they did that was dishonest is open to debate) seem to have come from all parts of the political spectrum.

[Hope]

This will only fuel renewed campaigns for a second Scottish referendum, as, yet again Scots voted in one direction and were lumbered with a government they detest.

Should Scotland vote to leave the EU and the rUK vote to remain in it, will you still push for independence?   What about if the SNP fail to register a majority of the seats in next year's devolved election?

[Rhiannon]

I think the Lib Dems are left of centre. Only a bit - they are my default party when no independents are around now I've gone off the Geeens for appearing to endorse various kinds of anti-Semitic right-on lazy thinking.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Centrist for whom? At the last election the centre-ground was occupied by the Lib Dems, look how that went.

I would disagree, O.  I would have placed the Lib-Dems to the left of Labour back in May, whilst to seemed to me that people felt that if we were to have a centre right Government we might as well have a right of centre party in charge of it.

I wouldn't say the Lib dems were left of labour.

The plain fact is that England has gone right wing.

[Hope]

The plain fact is that England has gone right wing.

Oh, I hadn't realised that UKIP won the last election.  The Tories and Labour (pre-election at least) were right of centre and left of centre respectively.  Furthermore, what with Scotland and Wales having been predominantly Labour strongholds till recently, England has long been more right-wing overall.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

The plain fact is that England has gone right wing.

Oh, I hadn't realised that UKIP won the last election.  The Tories and Labour (pre-election at least) were right of centre and left of centre respectively.  Furthermore, what with Scotland and Wales having been predominantly Labour strongholds till recently, England has long been more right-wing overall.

Oh come on. Dismantling of public services, vilification of public servants is not right wing?
Let's just see what most English voters want......Public servants working far more hours for less money with no ability to strike.
What is 'centre' about that?

[Hope]

Let's just see what most English voters want......Public servants working far more hours for less money with no ability to strike.
What is 'centre' about that?

Look at the UK map on this page, Vlad - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015

It would seem that the majority of English voters felt that the Tories could be trusted with the NHS, the economy, etc. more than Labour.

Note that, at no stage have I said that I support the Tories - in fact I voted for a party considerably to the left of Labour as it was in May and probably still to the left of Labour as it will be under Mr Corbyn.

I have voted for this same party since 2000, except on the 2 occasions they have not had a candidate in our constituency.  On these occasions, I voted for Plaid Cymru (x1) and the Lib Dems (x1).

[jeremyp]

It would seem that the majority of English voters felt that the Tories could be trusted with the NHS, the economy, etc. more than Labour.

The majority of English voters (49%) voted against the Tories. 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/england

[Hope]

The majority of English voters (49%) voted against the Tories.

My apologies, Jeremy, you are correct.  I got my stats mixed up.  What I meant to say was that on a constituency by constituency basis, more English voters voted for the Tories, otherwise they wouldn't have gained 319 of the 533 English seats available.

[Anchorman]

Division, Hope - that's the way thimngs are going.
Labour will have serious issues trying to unite under Corbyn (many of whose policies with which I agree, btw).
He may have serious difficultties in commanding support, not only from his own MPs, but with the party in Scotland - the Scottish leader has expressed her opposition to him ion more than one occasion.
The days of the 'left' uniting are over.
SNP and Labour, while agreeing on many issues, may find the only way of burying the hatchet is by embedding it in each others' back.
Unless Corbyn is replaced by a 'soft' candidate, the Tories will win the next general election with an increased majority.
This will only fuel renewed campaigns for a second Scottish referendum, as, yet again Scots voted in one direction and were lumbered with a government they detest.

What effect will Corbyn have on the votes of the SNP? Will many return to Labour in May?

-
Possibly, yes.
However, the leader up here is one Keiza Dugdale....probably unknown in England (and to most of Scotland as well)
She has already put on record her opposition to many Corbyn policies, and, since she herself has only just been elected (the eighth Scottish Labour leader since devolution) she can't afford to be seen in a u-turn after standing on  her election promises.
Scottish Labour is in a torment - return to the 'old' Corbynite policies and ditch nearly all the policies which elected their new leader last month, or change them all in a flash and lose what credibility they may still have.

[Outrider]

Centrist for whom? At the last election the centre-ground was occupied by the Lib Dems, look how that went.

I would disagree, O.  I would have placed the Lib-Dems to the left of Labour back in May, whilst to seemed to me that people felt that if we were to have a centre right Government we might as well have a right of centre party in charge of it.

I'd agree, back in May they were. With Jeremy Corbyn laying the framework for Labour I think it's fairly clear that Labour will return to the left of centre, leaving the Lib Dems in the centre.

O.

[Hope]

Jim, a quick 'what if ...?'.

If (and I suspect it'll be a big 'if') Corbyn's election manages to draw back enough Scottish Labour voters for Labour to win the Holyrood election next autumn, how do you see the political landscape of Scotland developing, since the 58 SNP MPs would no longer have the 'support' of Holyrood?

[Nearly Sane]

Jim, a quick 'what if ...?'.

If (and I suspect it'll be a big 'if') Corbyn's election manages to draw back enough Scottish Labour voters for Labour to win the Holyrood election next autumn, how do you see the political landscape of Scotland developing, since the 58 SNP MPs would no longer have the 'support' of Holyrood?

The thing is in Holyrood terms they haven't been 'Scottish Labour' since 2003. The idea that there are hordes of Holyrood voters to be regarded as Labour voters not voting for them is not clear at all and the presumption that there is is now gradually being realised by many in Scottish Labour to be the problem.


That said if the SNP were to lose not just their majority but the overall largest party, it wouldn't in a sense have much initial affect on the 56 MPs they have who would have to tone down some of the rhetoric but that's a bout all. In addition the possibility of pursuing in conjuction with some part of the Labour Party a campaign against Trident renewal could well become a focus.

The question of any further referndum is dependent on the SNP maintaining a majority in Holyrood (or close to a majority if there is a significant increase in the Green MSPs), not the MPs. On current polls, the SNP are predicted to increase their majority and the Greens could at least double. The Lib Dems look like possibly losing 1 seat and Labour currently may end up with only a couple more than the Tories, who may well gain 3 or 4 seats.


There hasn't been any noticeable Corbyn effect as yet and the previous statements of Kezia Dugdale may well cause problems going forward. Since in all likelihood Labour will lose the next  WM election by some distance, even were they to see a revival in Scotland, any hypothetical 'resurgence' in next years Holyrood elections could be reversed hugely once again the following time around. (Dependent on the date of the Holyrood election which is still currently unknown due the guddle of 4 year parliaments at Holyrood and 5 year ones at WM.)

Add in to that a possible BREXIT, and the tea leaves cannae take it, Captain!

[Hope]

Add in to that a possible BREXIT, and the tea leaves cannae take it, Captain!

Thanks for that, NS.  I might even print it out as a succinct guide to Scottish politics.  With no disrespect to Jim or some others' passion - I always find your posts on the Scottish issue very interesting.

I think I may have posed this 'what if?' before, but if the final EU referendum showed a lower level of support for the EU in Scotland than in the rest of the UK, would that be an SNP trigger for a new independence referendum?  I've always assumed that Salmond and Sturgeon have always thought that any differential would be the other way round.

[Anchorman]

Jim, a quick 'what if ...?'.

If (and I suspect it'll be a big 'if') Corbyn's election manages to draw back enough Scottish Labour voters for Labour to win the Holyrood election next autumn, how do you see the political landscape of Scotland developing, since the 58 SNP MPs would no longer have the 'support' of Holyrood?

-
The first thing you need to realise is that Johann Lamont, the last Scottish Labour leader but one, left the leadership with a poison chalice - she compared her own party to a 'Scottish branch office'.
That has dooged her sucessors, Jim Murphy, and, now, Keizai Dugdale, niether of whom show any signs of decalaring any autonomy from London Labour.
That's a millstone round the Scottish leadership's collective necks.
Combine that with the 'Brownite' faction within the Scottish Labour parliamentary faction, and they will have a very hard time ajusting to 'Corbynism'....and if they DO change their policies, they simply offer more ammo for the other left-leaning parties here to hit them with.
They are caught between a rock and a hard place.
I've no doubt that Scottish Labour WILL revive at some point in the future, but such a revival will be slow in coming - too slow to regain any real power at the Hollyrood elections next year.
An excellent result for Labour in Scotland will be to retain any constituency seats at all - they will probably have to rely on the 'list' seats to have any presence in parliament, with the resultant diminution in moral authority that may bring.