What way for UK politics, now

[Rhiannon]

Peston of the Beeb has heard rumours of Labour defectors heading across the floor to their soulmate George Osborne. At the least expect some resignations and by-elections.

Labour never understood the appeal of UKIP in its heartlands and I agree that it will gain further support now Corbyn's is in charge.

[wigginhall]

I don't think anybody knows.   Corbyn's supporters are pointing to the large membership increase since the leadership contest started, and opponents are arguing that he will alienate various groups of people.   I guess that the polls will be watched for a while, to see which way it's going.   Corbyn is having a tough time with the media, but again, I don't know how much that will count.   If Labour start to sink badly in the polls, then his time will be short, I would think, although I'm not sure that Labour led by anybody else will inspire anybody.   Of course, Keir Starmer lurks in the wings, but he is too new, I would think.

If Blairites cross to the Tories, that is rather giving the game away!

[Shaker]

I don't think anybody knows. Corbyn's supporters are pointing to the large membership increase since the leadership contest started

Thirty thousand and rising, so I've heard at any rate.

[wigginhall]

The obvious message is, pick your battles.  If Corbyn attacks on the issue of austerity, I think he will get support.  All the flim-flam about anthems and clothes should be ignored really.    Judging from PMQs, he knows this, and he is not going to go off on some diatribe about monarchy and theism.  If he did, I would consider that completely barmy, but I am pretty sure that he won't. 

[Jack Knave]

interesting article from Nick Cohen. While not in agreement with him on all of it, I think it underlines that Labour may well be completely screwed now. I also think that what may split the party is Israel. The view by groupings in the party that the other lit are Zionists/antisemitic dependent on their own position has been bubbling for a while but is becoming ever more the defining policy.


http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/09/will-labour-move-corbyn/

It seems to me they are close to being screwed. I don't think Corbyn can find some common ground because he seems so surprised about how life is conducted in the 21st century he comes a cross to me as a Mr Bean type.

He could end up as a "Being There" character...?

I don't think he's surprised, I think he's disappointed. Whilst this move leftwards will almost certainly lose the Labour party some supporters, I suspect it has the potential to (re)gain them many more - previous Labour voters who defected to SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens as they abandoned any pretense of left wing economics, as well as previously unengaged voters who didn't see the smaller or nationalist parties but sought a working-man's supporter they could believe in.

At the same time, those centrists that Labour sheds could turn towards, depending on their authoritarian/libertarian bent, UKIP or the Lib Dems - that potential boost for UKIP is probably the most worrying thing about all of this.

O.

The problem Labour has isn't what could happen outside of them i.e. voters coming and going, but what this will do to them internally. Many MPs expect Corbyn to fail and will sit on the side-lines and wait. This quiet temporary split will be fuel for those wanting to pull Labour apart. But if these usual Labour lot get to take the reins again the grassroots members wont be too happy. This will probably mean years of strife for Labour.

I gather that many ex-Scottish Labour voters have finished with Labour as they see no way that Labour could ever represent them again, which the SNP are doing. This could be true for the others you mention. Labour has also lost its boots on the ground in Scotland, as they only have one seat.

[jakswan]

The problem Labour has isn't what could happen outside of them i.e. voters coming and going, but what this will do to them internally. Many MPs expect Corbyn to fail and will sit on the side-lines and wait. This quiet temporary split will be fuel for those wanting to pull Labour apart. But if these usual Labour lot get to take the reins again the grassroots members wont be too happy. This will probably mean years of strife for Labour.

I gather that many ex-Scottish Labour voters have finished with Labour as they see no way that Labour could ever represent them again, which the SNP are doing. This could be true for the others you mention. Labour has also lost its boots on the ground in Scotland, as they only have one seat.

I think it depends on the neverendum, if SNP keep that on the agenda they are on safe ground as Labour are now more left than the SNP which they are (apart from Trident). You can see this is the tactic, i.e. keep talking up independence.

Corbyn is a republican the best bet for Labour would to stop being unionist party but become neutral on that issue. In fact its not that much of a change for them:-

http://www.u.tv/News/2015/09/15/Labour-view-of-united-Ireland-legitimate---SoS-44986

It would be like castrating the SNP.

[ProfessorDavey]

I don't think anybody knows. Corbyn's supporters are pointing to the large membership increase since the leadership contest started

Thirty thousand and rising, so I've heard at any rate.

I suspect quite a few are ex-members rejoining. I know a number in that group.

But you always get figures about people joining, but there will also be people leaving too. Perhaps not 'ripping up their membership cards' but not renewing when the time comes. There was a big group who joined in the mid 90s who wouldn't have joined in the mid 80s. A lot of these people will be feeling that the party they joined has left them, so to speak.

[Nearly Sane]

Jeremy Corbyn is to the left of the SNP, it remains to be seen if Labour are. Tom Watson is in favour of Trident renewal. It is as yet unclear what policies will be followed.

[jakswan]

'Avalanche' of Labour MPs could turn to Lib Dems.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34302365

Would Vince have said this if there had been no contact?

[Walt Zingmatilder]

'Avalanche' of Labour MPs could turn to Lib Dems.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34302365

Would Vince have said this if there had been no contact?

Since there will be by elections many seats will end up Conservative not Lib Dem.

[Nearly Sane]

'Avalanche' of Labour MPs could turn to Lib Dems.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34302365

Would Vince have said this if there had been no contact?

Were there any young women about?


http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2010/12/vince_cable

[jakswan]

'Avalanche' of Labour MPs could turn to Lib Dems.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34302365

Would Vince have said this if there had been no contact?

Were there any young women about?

http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2010/12/vince_cable

Strawboy, what have young women to do with Labour MP's defecting?

[Nearly Sane]

'Avalanche' of Labour MPs could turn to Lib Dems.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34302365

Would Vince have said this if there had been no contact?

Were there any young women about?

http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2010/12/vince_cable

Strawboy, what have young women to do with Labour MP's defecting?

What are you on about? 'Strawboy'. You asked if Cable  might say something that wasn't justified by facts, I pointed out an occasion where he talked arrant pish.

[jakswan]

'Avalanche' of Labour MPs could turn to Lib Dems.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34302365

Would Vince have said this if there had been no contact?

Were there any young women about?

http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2010/12/vince_cable

Strawboy, what have young women to do with Labour MP's defecting?

What are you on about? 'Strawboy'. You asked if Cable  might say something that wasn't justified by facts, I pointed out an occasion where he talked arrant pish.

I thought you were Vlad apologies.

[Jack Knave]

'Avalanche' of Labour MPs could turn to Lib Dems.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34302365

Would Vince have said this if there had been no contact?

I very much doubt it. They are more likely to site tight and wait for Corbyn to fizzle away and then take the front bench again. The LibDems are going nowhere and would be a stupid choice for a career move.

[Jack Knave]

The problem Labour has isn't what could happen outside of them i.e. voters coming and going, but what this will do to them internally. Many MPs expect Corbyn to fail and will sit on the side-lines and wait. This quiet temporary split will be fuel for those wanting to pull Labour apart. But if these usual Labour lot get to take the reins again the grassroots members wont be too happy. This will probably mean years of strife for Labour.

I gather that many ex-Scottish Labour voters have finished with Labour as they see no way that Labour could ever represent them again, which the SNP are doing. This could be true for the others you mention. Labour has also lost its boots on the ground in Scotland, as they only have one seat.

I think it depends on the neverendum, if SNP keep that on the agenda they are on safe ground as Labour are now more left than the SNP which they are (apart from Trident). You can see this is the tactic, i.e. keep talking up independence.

Corbyn is a republican the best bet for Labour would to stop being unionist party but become neutral on that issue. In fact its not that much of a change for them:-

http://www.u.tv/News/2015/09/15/Labour-view-of-united-Ireland-legitimate---SoS-44986

It would be like castrating the SNP.

I think you're right. Many of the No voter Scots feel that the vow and other promises have been watered down and feelings are running high.

[jakswan]

I think you're right. Many of the No voter Scots feel that the vow and other promises have been watered down and feelings are running high.

That is what they feel, SNP are good at what they do!

[Nearly Sane]

Who knows what policies the Labour party has, might have?



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/11875708/Labour-MPs-agree-to-serve-Jeremy-Corbyn-after-being-told-Trident-will-not-be-scrapped.html

[Nearly Sane]

Though he may have an ancestor to tell us

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34294556

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Who knows what policies the Labour party has, might have?



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/11875708/Labour-MPs-agree-to-serve-Jeremy-Corbyn-after-being-told-Trident-will-not-be-scrapped.html

Taking railways back into national ownership as their franchises run out.

Of course TOC's are screaming blue murder over privatised railways making profits but those franchises which operated temporarily under state control made profits too.

Corbyn therefore challenges the idea of total privatisation with medium profits for what are in many cases the nationalised railways of foreign countries against National prosperity( in terms of far more business ) possible through rail renationalisation.

[jakswan]

The problem Labour has isn't what could happen outside of them i.e. voters coming and going, but what this will do to them internally. Many MPs expect Corbyn to fail and will sit on the side-lines and wait. This quiet temporary split will be fuel for those wanting to pull Labour apart. But if these usual Labour lot get to take the reins again the grassroots members wont be too happy. This will probably mean years of strife for Labour.

I gather that many ex-Scottish Labour voters have finished with Labour as they see no way that Labour could ever represent them again, which the SNP are doing. This could be true for the others you mention. Labour has also lost its boots on the ground in Scotland, as they only have one seat.

I think it depends on the neverendum, if SNP keep that on the agenda they are on safe ground as Labour are now more left than the SNP which they are (apart from Trident). You can see this is the tactic, i.e. keep talking up independence.

Corbyn is a republican the best bet for Labour would to stop being unionist party but become neutral on that issue. In fact its not that much of a change for them:-

http://www.u.tv/News/2015/09/15/Labour-view-of-united-Ireland-legitimate---SoS-44986

It would be like castrating the SNP.

Hello, whats this a change maybe, Kezia Dugdale would allow indyref 'free vote'!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-34301969

[Nearly Sane]

Good line from Tom Watson that leaving Labour to join the Lib Dems would be like 'Leaving the Beatles to join a Banarama tribute band'.

[jakswan]

Good line from Tom Watson that leaving Labour to join the Lib Dems would be like 'Leaving the Beatles to join a Banarama tribute band'.

Depends on if your in politics for power or because you believe in what you stand for.

[Aruntraveller]

Depends on if your in politics for power or because you believe in what you stand for.

False argument. they are not exclusive - in fact one pretty much follows from the other.

You need to be in power to make the things you believe in happen. You know like the Lib dems did with tuition fees.....oh wait a minute.........

[Nearly Sane]

Good line from Tom Watson that leaving Labour to join the Lib Dems would be like 'Leaving the Beatles to join a Banarama tribute band'.

Depends on if your in politics for power or because you believe in what you stand for.

that it is a good line does not depend on that at all.