Syria

[Hope]

A very interesting interview with Middle East Eye journalist - Peter Oborne - on BBC Breakfast at about 7.37 this morning regarding his recent visit to Damascus.  Using London as a comparator, he explained how the centre of Damascus is fairly OK - 'you can walk from Chelsea to Whitechapel, or from the Thames north to St John's Wood' fairly comfortably, but then noted that the suburbs - such as Croydon and Brixton were either flattened and/or in the hands of rebels.

He also pointed out that, despite the attempts byWestern powers to eject Assad, it is Assad who protects the very minorities - Shia, Druze, Christians, etc (even moderate Sunnis). that the West think want to get rid of him.

Well worth a listen on iPlayer later if you can.

[ad_orientem]

A very interesting interview with Middle East Eye journalist - Peter Oborne - on BBC Breakfast at about 7.37 this morning regarding his recent visit to Damascus.  Using London as a comparator, he explained how the centre of Damascus is fairly OK - 'you can walk from Chelsea to Whitechapel, or from the Thames north to St John's Wood' fairly comfortably, but then noted that the suburbs - such as Croydon and Brixton were either flattened and/or in the hands of rebels.

He also pointed out that, despite the attempts by Western powers to eject Assad, it is Assad who protects the very minorities - Shia, Druze, Christians, etc (even moderate Sunnis). that the West think want to get rid of him.

Well worth a listen on iPlayer later if you can.

This is the problem: the shortsightedness of those who were desperate to see Assad go. What's better, to live in peace under a dictator or live in fear for your life under ISIS or an American puppet democracy? Once again Christians especially are getting it in the neck. Worst of all American Christians by-and-large don't care because Middle-Eastern Christians are mostly the wrong type of Christians, the ancient kind (that's if they consider them Christians at all).

[floo]

The West got rid of the tyrants in Iraq and Libya, but are those countries better off than they were before? The answer is a resounding NO! Assad is a nasty piece of work but ISIS is even nastier. I suggest they eliminate ISIS first before turning their attention to him.

[Hope]

The West got rid of the tyrants in Iraq and Libya, but are those countries better off than they were before? The answer is a resounding NO! Assad is a nasty piece of work but ISIS is even nastier. I suggest they eliminate ISIS first before turning their attention to him.

Floo, I think the problems in Iraq and Libya were that their respective leaders were NOT interested in protecting minorities, so the context was somewhat different.  Not that that supports indiscriminate regime change.

[dadvokat]

The West got rid of the tyrants in Iraq and Libya, but are those countries better off than they were before? The answer is a resounding NO! Assad is a nasty piece of work but ISIS is even nastier. I suggest they eliminate ISIS first before turning their attention to him.

Lesser of the two evils I suppose. Strange bed fellows with Iranians (Axis of evil with terrorist proxies active in Lebanon, Israel), Russians (annexing Crimea and threatening Ukraine), USA (bloody hands with illegal war in Iraq) & UK, France & Assad (bombing his own people and driving millions out of Syria) on one side and IS with widespread terrorism, beheadings, 13 year old sex slaves, throwing gays off buildings, Ethnic cleansing etc on the other side.

Take your pick...

[Leonard James]

The West got rid of the tyrants in Iraq and Libya, but are those countries better off than they were before? The answer is a resounding NO! Assad is a nasty piece of work but ISIS is even nastier. I suggest they eliminate ISIS first before turning their attention to him.

Lesser of the two evils I suppose. Strange bed fellows with Iranians (Axis of evil with terrorist proxies active in Lebanon, Israel), Russians (annexing Crimea and threatening Ukraine), USA (bloody hands with illegal war in Iraq) & UK, France & Assad (bombing his own people and driving millions out of Syria) on one side and IS with widespread terrorism, beheadings, 13 year old sex slaves, throwing gays off buildings, Ethnic cleansing etc on the other side.

Take your pick...

I think I'll stay in this quiet little backwater of Spain, and let the rest of the world go by! 

[dadvokat]

The West got rid of the tyrants in Iraq and Libya, but are those countries better off than they were before? The answer is a resounding NO! Assad is a nasty piece of work but ISIS is even nastier. I suggest they eliminate ISIS first before turning their attention to him.

Lesser of the two evils I suppose. Strange bed fellows with Iranians (Axis of evil with terrorist proxies active in Lebanon, Israel), Russians (annexing Crimea and threatening Ukraine), USA (bloody hands with illegal war in Iraq) & UK, France & Assad (bombing his own people and driving millions out of Syria) on one side and IS with widespread terrorism, beheadings, 13 year old sex slaves, throwing gays off buildings, Ethnic cleansing etc on the other side.

Take your pick...

So millions of Syrians have fled the country as Assad has been waging war on his own people but the Russians, Americans, Iranians and Brits & the French are waging a war against IS and propping up the tyrant? The Saudis have called for an end to Russian bombing and for Assad to be deposed. This does smack of a 1400 year old religious schism in the region with Sunni v Shia sects trying to enforce their superiority. iS is an evil murderous death cult and should be destroyed but at the expense of sparing Assad and his continuing brutal onslaught against his own people? I don't know - my head hurts...

[Hope]

... but at the expense of sparing Assad and his continuing brutal onslaught against his own people? I don't know - my head hurts...

The problem is that the majorty of the minority populations in Syria want Assad to remain, as he protected them.

[wigginhall]

Mind-boggling, if true, that the Russians are attacking non-IS rebel groups, some of them supposedly armed by the US.   If it is true, then it's an obvious attempt to shore up Assad, and the IS stuff is strictly for public consumption.  It will probably make the whole thing more of a mess.

[Nearly Sane]

Indeed, we are in the territory of my enemy's enemy's enemy's enemy here - it's a sort of Kursaal Flyers www.youtube.com/watch?v=edDmtJYxg3U  for realpolitik

[wigginhall]

It may, ironically, help IS, if the Russians are attacking the Army of Conquest, who I think have been also fighting IS, as well as Assad.   I think they are also supported by Turkey and the Saudis, and have been gaining a lot of territory.  Thus, the Russians are trying to give Assad some breathing space.    War by proxy, horrendous.

Another Machiavellian idea being floated, is that the Russians want to weaken non-IS groups, so that the West is forced to choose between Assad and IS.  Who knows.

[OH MY WORLD!]

The truth is that Assad will protect any minority or majority as long as they do as he says. That's it. Any protest against that dog and you will be killed. And tribal loyalties play a very large role in the middle east.

Uncle Assad the great Protector. (warning graphic reality)

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lH2B7pYpURQ

[Hope]

The truth is that Assad will protect any minority or majority as long as they do as he says. That's it.

Yet that doesn't seem to match what the Syrian minority groups themselves are saying.

[Shaker]

What's better, to live in peace under a dictator or live in fear for your life under ISIS or an American puppet democracy? ]

Can you live in peace under a dictator?

If it had to be a choice from those options, I know where my vote would go.

[ad_orientem]

What's better, to live in peace under a dictator or live in fear for your life under ISIS or an American puppet democracy? ]

Can you live in peace under a dictator?

If it had to be a choice from those options, I know where my vote would go.

Maybe you could ask Syrian Christians.

[jakswan]

This is the problem: the shortsightedness of those who were desperate to see Assad go. What's better, to live in peace under a dictator or live in fear for your life under ISIS or an American puppet democracy? Once again Christians especially are getting it in the neck. Worst of all American Christians by-and-large don't care because Middle-Eastern Christians are mostly the wrong type of Christians, the ancient kind (that's if they consider them Christians at all).

I'm not sure what the solution is but I'm pretty sure people living safety in obscenely rich western countries don't have a solution either. The West's record, even if well intentioned (debatable), on intervening in the Middle East is dire.

Putin is a ruthless politician, he uses nationalism to gain political capital, one of the best ways to fuel nationalism is to have a bogeyman, Islamic State fits the bill.

[Hope]

Putin is a ruthless politician, he uses nationalism to gain political capital, one of the best ways to fuel nationalism is to have a bogeyman, Islamic State fits the bill.

Especially when one uses that label indiscriminately, as he is.

[ad_orientem]

Eh? Islamic State is a CIA creation gone bad. Same as Al-Qaida.

[jakswan]

Eh? Islamic State is a CIA creation gone bad. Same as Al-Qaida.

No, funding a rebel group with an Islamic ideology does not equate to creating it.

[ad_orientem]

Eh? Islamic State is a CIA creation gone bad. Same as Al-Qaida.

No, funding a rebel group with an Islamic ideology does not equate to creating it.

Even if that is true what, in reality, is the difference? But as long as Assad goes, innit! Nevermind the consequences. Iraq and Saddam was the same. 1-0 to Russia, I think, and the Yanks can't stand it.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/09/30/Church-says-Russia-fighting-holy-battle-in-Syria.html

[jakswan]

Eh? Islamic State is a CIA creation gone bad. Same as Al-Qaida.

No, funding a rebel group with an Islamic ideology does not equate to creating it.

Even if that is true what, in reality, is the difference? But as long as Assad goes, innit! Nevermind the consequences. Iraq and Saddam was the same. 1-0 to Russia, I think, and the Yanks can't stand it.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/09/30/Church-says-Russia-fighting-holy-battle-in-Syria.html

If that is true then what you said was false. If the Orthodox Church are calling it a holy battle then that is the sort of jingoistic drivel that will suffering in the region get even worse.

[SweetPea]

Eh? Islamic State is a CIA creation gone bad. Same as Al-Qaida.

No, funding a rebel group with an Islamic ideology does not equate to creating it.

No, Ad-O is correct. This is from a former CIA contractor:

http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-created-the-islamic-state-isis-for-sake-of-israel-and-military-industrial-complex-ex-cia-contractor/5457911

[Jack Knave]

... but at the expense of sparing Assad and his continuing brutal onslaught against his own people? I don't know - my head hurts...

The problem is that the majorty of the minority populations in Syria want Assad to remain, as he protected them.

But why were there protests in the first place? Because he wasn't being too nice to other groups in the country. So the best thing is to remove him and bring in democracy for all - a lot easier said than done, though.

[wigginhall]

One problem is that Russia is allying itself with the Shia axis (including Iran, Iraq and Hezbollah), against the Sunni axis.   This could well lead more Sunni tribes to ally with IS, (which some of them have already done), on the grounds that this is the only way to survive.   Thus in Iraq the Sunni triangle became very alarmed by the then Iraqui govt, which they saw as persecuting them, hence they were receptive to IS units, which came a-calling. 

Well, it's incalculable what could happen.  If anyone is thinking of crushing the Sunni tribes through brute force, think again.  It would be a massive bloodbath, which would make the Syrian civil war look mild.

[Jack Knave]

One problem is that Russia is allying itself with the Shia axis (including Iran, Iraq and Hezbollah), against the Sunni axis.   This could well lead more Sunni tribes to ally with IS, (which some of them have already done), on the grounds that this is the only way to survive.   Thus in Iraq the Sunni triangle became very alarmed by the then Iraqui govt, which they saw as persecuting them, hence they were receptive to IS units, which came a-calling. 

Well, it's incalculable what could happen.  If anyone is thinking of crushing the Sunni tribes through brute force, think again.  It would be a massive bloodbath, which would make the Syrian civil war look mild.

If Putin attacks, or perceives to attack, all rebel groups then yes there is a big chance of polarization, and it looks as if this is what he intends. He says it is only for 3 months - we all know how that pans out...