Author Topic: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria  (Read 48508 times)

wigginhall

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Re: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria
« Reply #225 on: December 02, 2015, 03:10:39 PM »
The idea that Cameron was touting that if we reduced Da'esh there would be an interim govt in Syria that would be moderate in 6 - 18 months is bizarre

Yes, I thought he was really stretching it, when he had a passage about ground troops becoming available, as a peaceful solution was found in Syria.   This would be comic, if it wasn't such a grave situation. 

Intervening in a civil war is usually an awful idea, but here you have so many different forces at work, Russia bombing FSA, Turkey bombing the Kurds, various Islamist groups, whose loyalties are uncertain, Hezbollah helping Assad, and so on. 

But I don't think Cameron's thesis has to be credible to get through.   If enough people want it to be true, it will pass, as with Iraq.
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Spud

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Re: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria
« Reply #226 on: December 02, 2015, 03:12:30 PM »
If we the West hadn't armed the rebel opposition against Assad then those who splintered off from the rebels to form isis would not have had the weapons that enabled them to then take so much territory in Iraq and Syria. If we are going to say no to airstrikes then we should not supply arms to the rebels, as they can't be trusted.

wigginhall

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Re: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria
« Reply #227 on: December 02, 2015, 03:17:52 PM »
If we the West hadn't armed the rebel opposition against Assad then those who splintered off from the rebels to form isis would not have had the weapons that enabled them to then take so much territory in Iraq and Syria. If we are going to say no to airstrikes then we should not supply arms to the rebels, as they can't be trusted.

Yet Cameron's argument is based on 'friendly fighters' among the rebel groups, who he hopes, will rally to our cause against IS.   Government policy based on wish fulfillment. 
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Spud

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Re: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria
« Reply #228 on: December 02, 2015, 03:33:00 PM »
Agreed. Maybe it would be best to assume that in the long term Assad will stay in power, since he has Russia behind him.

Spud

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Re: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria
« Reply #229 on: December 02, 2015, 03:36:32 PM »
I mean ideally we would leave Russia to sort it out, since they are Syria's ally. But we need to keep Iraq as we left it, and Isis is attacking Iraq from their stronghold in Syria, so they have to be tackled there too.

wigginhall

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Re: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria
« Reply #230 on: December 02, 2015, 03:45:30 PM »
I mean ideally we would leave Russia to sort it out, since they are Syria's ally. But we need to keep Iraq as we left it, and Isis is attacking Iraq from their stronghold in Syria, so they have to be tackled there too.

All this 'we need to keep Iraq as we left' smacks of neo-colonialism to me.  No wonder the West is hated by so many people in the region, we are still acting as if it was the 19th century.  Order a gun-boat to Tripoli, my lord, the niggers are being restless.
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jakswan

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Re: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria
« Reply #231 on: December 02, 2015, 03:51:37 PM »
I mean ideally we would leave Russia to sort it out, since they are Syria's ally. But we need to keep Iraq as we left it, and Isis is attacking Iraq from their stronghold in Syria, so they have to be tackled there too.

Leaving Russia and Assad in charge could result in a bloodbath. I honestly don't know I know that sounds flaky but there isn't an easy option. I don't trust Cameron and I don't have much faith in Corbyn.
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wigginhall

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Re: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria
« Reply #232 on: December 02, 2015, 04:20:51 PM »
It reminds me of that idea that the solution is the problem.  I mean,  the West thinking that it has solutions to various problems in the Middle East makes the problems worse, and also creates new problems.  But I don't think that we can withdraw now; we have to keep looking for a cure, and making it worse.
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The Accountant, OBE, KC

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Re: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria
« Reply #233 on: December 02, 2015, 04:35:18 PM »
My take on this is that the various militant groups, including ISIS and their opponents, are well funded and armed by private donors, outside powers and black market oil sales. This funding and support will not end with bombing ISIS. 

Air strikes also won't stop new recruits joining ISIS. Only disrupting the ties of locals to ISIS, protecting locals from anti-Sunni government repression or stopping the nepotism and the unequal distribution of oil revenue to the various different communities in the country  will do that. And, not sure how air strikes and supposedly 'friendly' ground troops are going to chase ISIS fighters across international borders e.g. into Turkey, given that Turkey shot down a Russian plane, and that Turkey would prefer ISIS to defeat Kurdish forces. So probably not a lot to prevent ISIS fighters using standard guerrilla tactics of dropping back into Turkey and coming back to attack opposition towns and positions. And not sure what the strategy is to deal with ISIS fighters who hide themselves amongst the civilian population - air strikes won't help there.

And regardless of whether ISIS lose territory in Syria and Iraq, they will, while capable through funds and technology, continue a strategy of international terrorism because that has been shown to work in disrupting foreign political and military support for their opponents. ISIS probably reason that if on-going dead US and UK soldiers reduced US and UK popular support for foreign military intervention in Afghanistan and Iraq (not to mention what the sight of dead US soldiers did for the support of US intervention in Vietnam), dead foreign civilians will be just as effective if foreign troops won't meet them on the ground.

With the advances in technology and social media, every year it gets easier for insurgents to reach or communicate with foreign shores to gain support. This support may come in the form of terrorism, which is why there has been a rise in these types of terrorist tactics against soft targets on foreign shores rather than fighting conventionally against the superior military power of foreign troops, which would only result in military defeat for ISIS. The North Vietnamese army took on ground troops and US air strikes in Vietnam without surrendering - some of the North Vietnamese troops had tattooed "Born in the North to die in the South" on their bodies, so I'm not expecting foreign military intervention to reduce extremism in the ME, through it may disrupt some of the militants' supply lines.

Iran's 1979 revolution against the extremely brutal dictatorship of the US-installed Shah has always been a source of inspiration to Arab insurgents/ militants/ guerrilla movements. Even Western thinkers such as Thomas Jefferson, principal author of the US Declaration of Independence, wrote in a letter " ...what country can preserve it's liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? Let them take arms. The remedy is to set them right as to facts, pardon & pacify them. What signify a few lives lost in a century or two? The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots & tyrants. It is it's natural manure."

ISIS extremists have their own narrative of the need for bloodshed of tyrants and the need for martyrs. They seem to have a very simplistic belief that their Caliphate will guarantee social and economic security for the local Sunni population, and they don't think the local population need any freedoms that will interfere with the practice of the ISIS brand of Islam, hence the label of "extremists".

And this won't end quickly because revolutions, wars of liberation and counter-revolutions are usually followed by sectarian reprisals, and illegal executions in the local area as people fight to retain privilege and eliminate the competition e.g. the actions of the KKK after the US civil war to resist what they saw as non-Southern values, the violence in post-war Iraq and in Libya.

Given the protracted nature of any 'solution', Cameron's argument for air strikes seems to be that he has been asked to by the French government, who are his allies (and who presumably help stem illegal immigration through Calais and help disrupt terrorism in Britain by sharing intelligence) and so he doesn't want to upset the French. And also that ISIS expansion of territory and oil fields is of course a threat to British national interests. He also seems to be saying that it's not morally right to let our allies face the inevitable terrorist backlash to their air strikes against ISIS, without the UK facing some of that backlash ourselves, and presumably he hopes that UK security services with help from the intelligence services of his political allies will continue to be effective in disrupting that terrorist backlash.
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Nearly Sane

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Re: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria
« Reply #234 on: December 02, 2015, 04:38:08 PM »
If we need to keep Iraq as we left it, does that mean our aim is to keep it as a basket case?

jakswan

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Re: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria
« Reply #235 on: December 02, 2015, 04:54:10 PM »
If we need to keep Iraq as we left it, does that mean our aim is to keep it as a basket case?

I think the end result will be Assad in power which will be much the same as Saddam in Iraq.

We have to have at least learned by now that intervening is counter productive?
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Nearly Sane

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Re: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria
« Reply #236 on: December 02, 2015, 04:57:16 PM »
60 - 90 Labour MPs being predicted to vote with Govt. If it is to high end and the majority in Oldham falls by a 15% swing, Corbyn may be gone by end of January.   Replaced by Dan Jarvis. Or he may remain and we may have a gang of 90.

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Re: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria
« Reply #237 on: December 02, 2015, 04:59:10 PM »
I think the end result will be Assad in power which will be much the same as Saddam in Iraq.

We have to have at least learned by now that intervening is counter productive?

Isn't bombing a country intervening? Looks like we will be intervening the hell out of Syria by this time tomorrow.

jakswan

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Re: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria
« Reply #238 on: December 02, 2015, 04:59:18 PM »
And regardless of whether ISIS lose territory in Syria and Iraq, they will, while capable through funds and technology, continue a strategy of international terrorism because that has been shown to work in disrupting foreign political and military support for their opponents. ISIS probably reason that if on-going dead US and UK soldiers reduced US and UK popular support for foreign military intervention in Afghanistan and Iraq (not to mention what the sight of dead US soldiers did for the support of US intervention in Vietnam), dead foreign civilians will be just as effective if foreign troops won't meet them on the ground.

They are deluded if so, every terrorist attack sparks a stupid knee jerk reaction from the West.

I suspect they do it because it plays into the narrative of West against Islam, doesn't help much there is also a nasty right wing element in the West which will gain power with every successful terrorist attack.
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jakswan

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Re: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria
« Reply #239 on: December 02, 2015, 04:59:56 PM »
Isn't bombing a country intervening? Looks like we will be intervening the hell out of Syria by this time tomorrow.

Yes, I'm against the air strikes.
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wigginhall

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Re: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria
« Reply #240 on: December 02, 2015, 05:00:13 PM »
If we need to keep Iraq as we left it, does that mean our aim is to keep it as a basket case?

Or as a colony with a Hashemite king. 
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Nearly Sane

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Re: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria
« Reply #241 on: December 02, 2015, 05:04:23 PM »
Yes, I'm against the air strikes.
To be fair, not bombing Syria does not mean we are not intervening. Most obviously we have bombing I Iraq, but I am not sure that a strict isolationist policy is possible anymore.

wigginhall

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Re: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria
« Reply #242 on: December 02, 2015, 05:06:01 PM »
Salmond very fiery; also Caroline Lucas in fine form.  Farron whining.
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wigginhall

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Re: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria
« Reply #243 on: December 02, 2015, 05:10:38 PM »
In some ways, I would respect an argument for revenge.   But Cameron has put together a finagled sort of segue between bombing and ground troops and a peace plan, which sounds as flimsy as last week's condom, (sorry for mixed metaphor).
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Re: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria
« Reply #244 on: December 02, 2015, 05:23:51 PM »
I think the best argument for bombing was done by David Davis, pity for that side he's against it. It would be symbolic and that would have meaning. That ties into the idea of revenge. It also lets the lack of a coherent plan going forward be a non argument since the initial action is justified in its own terms.

There have been hints of this on the Bomb side; Johnny Mercer 's worry that we are over analysing. But then that harks back to the whole neocon idea of defining our own reality.

wigginhall

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Re: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria
« Reply #245 on: December 02, 2015, 05:36:17 PM »
I think the best argument for bombing was done by David Davis, pity for that side he's against it. It would be symbolic and that would have meaning. That ties into the idea of revenge. It also lets the lack of a coherent plan going forward be a non argument since the initial action is justified in its own terms.

There have been hints of this on the Bomb side; Johnny Mercer 's worry that we are over analysing. But then that harks back to the whole neocon idea of defining our own reality.

That is a strong argument, but I suppose Cameron dare not advance it, as it would seem too insubstantial.  But he then cited various things, such as ground troops, and a peace plan, which don't seem credible.  But I don't think he has to be credible really, as the symbolism will win the vote.
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Re: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria
« Reply #246 on: December 02, 2015, 05:37:00 PM »
Interesting that current and previous leader of Labour party oppose bombing. Also rumours that 2 Lib Dems are struggling with voting for.

wigginhall

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Re: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria
« Reply #247 on: December 02, 2015, 05:43:51 PM »
I was wondering how many proxy forces there are intervening now in Syria - US, Russia, Iran, Turkey, Germany, Saudis, France, UK,  poor buggers, the Syrians I mean.
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Re: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria
« Reply #248 on: December 02, 2015, 05:47:34 PM »
That is a strong argument, but I suppose Cameron dare not advance it, as it would seem too insubstantial.  But he then cited various things, such as ground troops, and a peace plan, which don't seem credible.  But I don't think he has to be credible really, as the symbolism will win the vote.

There is an odd skittishness about doing something symbolic. Cameron could have said this is not about improving things and it is a shot in the dark but I will stand by France and against the murdering thugs who shot up the Bataclan in order to say No, Non. There is a notional line in the sand that is the Syria/Iraq border, a line that the evil members of Da'esh, Isis, so called Muslims, whatever you want to address them as, ignore. A line on which either side they kill, burn, behead people. Christians, Muslims, Atheists . People of all faiths and none. But we will make a metaphorical line that you will cross at the peril of full prosecution, of nations far stronger in ways that you haven't begun to imagine, and we will stop your killing, stop your raping, stop you. That line is a symbol, a symbol of our strenth, a symbol of your weakness and one which we will enforce. Not only will you not pass, you will be become a failed memory, a lost thuggery, and the attempts you make to attack us will be like a literal line in sand, gone with wind and forgotten for all time.

wigginhall

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Re: Arguments for and against the UK joining the strikes on ISIS in Syria
« Reply #249 on: December 02, 2015, 05:48:31 PM »
Angus McNeil saying that 17 out of 25 IS leaders came out of a US jail for Iraquis.   Rather like the IRA.
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