Labour divisions

[Hope]

Just wondering what folk think is likely to happen in/with/to the Labour Party following the reshuffle?

[floo]

Just wondering what folk think is likely to happen in/with/to the Labour Party following the reshuffle?

I think it could split.

[Shaker]

I think it could split.

No more split than it already is between those who belong in the Labour Party and those who don't.

[Hope]

No more split than it already is between those who belong in the Labour Party and those who don't.

So, which of Jeremy Corbyn and Hilary Benn 'belong in the Labour Party', Shaker? 

[ProfessorDavey]

I think it could split.

The situation, in my view, is untenable. It is impossible for a leader to be successful if he or she does not command the support of the parliamentary party - and Corbyn doesn't. He might, at a pinch, have got away with it had he been exceptionally conciliatory - operating on a broad church model. But he hasn't and there are far too few MPs who actually agree with him on too many topics.

His other massive problem is that he cannot credible call for party unity, given his track record as long as your arm of rebelling against previous leaderships.

[wigginhall]

I doubt if a split will happen; at least, I doubt if the Blairites will leave, as there is the horrible memory of the SDP, who basically let Thatcher in for x number of years, by splitting the non-Tory vote.

I don't think anything is going to happen.   Corbyn has the problem of some hostile MPs, but then he has the support of members.   

I guess it depends on polls and elections coming up.  If Labour score badly, he is in trouble, but he will be hoping for Oldham-type results. 

[Shaker]

So, which of Jeremy Corbyn and Hilary Benn 'belong in the Labour Party', Shaker?

Corbyn. Obviously.

[jakswan]

Both the right and the left sides of the party are hoping they can win.

The right are hoping Corbyn loses out in May, the left are hoping they will do well in May. The left must be planning to deselect right wing MPs, the right must be planning to deselect Corbyn, all are at the same time claiming they are planning no such thing.

Corbyn is 66 if he falls ill or worse the right might regain control, as they potentially veto who faces the wider party for election.

The longer it goes on the more likely a split becomes.

[Nearly Sane]

I doubt if a split will happen; at least, I doubt if the Blairites will leave, as there is the horrible memory of the SDP, who basically let Thatcher in for x number of years, by splitting the non-Tory vote.

I don't think anything is going to happen.   Corbyn has the problem of some hostile MPs, but then he has the support of members.   

I guess it depends on polls and elections coming up.  If Labour score badly, he is in trouble, but he will be hoping for Oldham-type results.

Alternatively someone might look back at the 80s and think of it hadn't have been for the Falklands the SDP could have won the 83 election. It would, however, be harder to link up with the Lib Dems now as opposed to the Libs then.

[Nearly Sane]

Corbyn is two years younger than Hillary Clinton. 66 is the new 44.

[wigginhall]

I must say, that I enjoy hearing Corbyn speak, and thinking about his ideas, a lot.   Most politicians bore the pants off me.  If Benn took over, I would be gone.

[jakswan]

I must say, that I enjoy hearing Corbyn speak, and thinking about his ideas, a lot.   Most politicians bore the pants off me.  If Benn took over, I would be gone.

Yes its good see someone genuine and not your typical spin robot. However its also like looking at a car crash, you knows it coming, its going to be ugly, but you can't quite look away.

[wigginhall]

Yes its good see someone genuine and not your typical spin robot. However its also like looking at a car crash, you knows it coming, its going to be ugly, but you can't quite look away.

Well, I don't think the Tories are going to split, but yes, some kind of Tory car crash probably, especially if the economy crashes again.    (Hee hee). 

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Yes it really is the end of Corbyn...I know the BBC announce it every week how can Corbyn come back after Stephen Cantrememberhisname,johnathan Thingy, have resigned over the sacking of Michael Who? And Pat can't quite place the name.

[jeremyp]

I think it could split.

It won't split. Whichever faction were to split off would wither and die because it would lack the financial resources of the official Labour Party.

[jeremyp]

Corbyn is two years younger than Hillary Clinton. 66 is the new 44.

But Hilary is running for President this year. Corbyn will not be running for PM until 2020 when he will be 70.

[Hope]

Well, I don't think the Tories are going to split, but yes, some kind of Tory car crash probably, especially if the economy crashes again.    (Hee hee).

Could we see both of the 2 main UK parties involved in their own political car crashes?  What could the UK political landscape look like if that happened?

[jakswan]

Well, I don't think the Tories are going to split, but yes, some kind of Tory car crash probably, especially if the economy crashes again.    (Hee hee).

I must confess I'd enjoy that as well, one bonus of being a lib dem is that the worst thing has happened. Not too sure its likely though, most likely thing would be EU vote rather than economy.

Can't say I'd be rejoicing at the economy crashing though I know people who've lost jobs in hard times.

[jakswan]

It won't split. Whichever faction were to split off would wither and die because it would lack the financial resources of the official Labour Party.

Whichever faction wins is effectively going to kill the other.

[Gonnagle]

Dear Jeremyp,

But Hilary is running for President this year. Corbyn will not be running for PM until 2020 when he will be 70.

Perfect age for a Prime Minister, all the corners knocked off, a more rounded person, could be another thread, plenty of old foggies on this forum, does wisdom come with age, whatever wisdom is.

Gonnagle.

[jakswan]

I accept Corbyns age is irrelevant my bad.

Still doesn't get away from the fact that the left have to get the right out of the PLP, the longer they don't the riskeir it gets.

[OH MY WORLD!]

I knew this was going to happen before Corbyne was even chosen as leader. The Economist Magazine, in more than one issue, warned the socialists not to pick this guy.


http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/09/economist-explains-6

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21660599-labours-prospective-next-leader-may-be-partys-hard-left-he-no-radical-jeremy

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21661662-victory-hard-left-candidate-would-be-bad-labourbut-also-tories

[wigginhall]

I accept Corbyns age is irrelevant my bad.

Still doesn't get away from the fact that the left have to get the right out of the PLP, the longer they don't the riskeir it gets.

I think it's very difficult, as the Blairites have a sense of entitlement, as far as I can see, so they will continue to attack Corbyn as somehow illegitimate.   On the other hand, Corbyn can't just expel all Blairites, that is just too bloody, and also you have to offer them a kind of modus vivendi.    Plus, of course, practically the whole media are anti-Corbyn, so it's quite hard to find out what is really going on. 

[ProfessorDavey]

I accept Corbyns age is irrelevant my bad.

Still doesn't get away from the fact that the left have to get the right out of the PLP, the longer they don't the riskeir it gets.

But if they do they are doomed.

A political party with the potential to win sufficient votes for power will necessarily be a reasonably broad church because so are the electorate.

So if the left of the Labour party got rid of the right it would cement itself as unelectable - as effectively a narrow protest group condemned to opposition.

It is interesting to note that Blair never moved to deselect Corbyn, or Skinner or Benn (senior) or others on the left of the PLP. He recognised that for the Labour party to win it needed to be sufficiently attractive to voters from the left and the right of the Labour political spectrum.

But I'm unclear how Corbyn would be able to achieve this anyway - while he can 'sack' his front bench team he can't really sack his MPs - sure he could suspend them from the party - but on what grounds - rebelling? Remember he rebelled countless times. He can try to get the MPs deselected, but that requires local parties to play ball - and guess what they are often rather fond of their sitting MPs. Or to massively change the rules to remove power from local parties - and good luck with getting that through the party processes and also achieving it without haemorrhaging of membership.

He can, of course use the time-honoured approach of persuading some sitting MPs to retire (probably with the promise of a seat in the HoL) to get rid of his 'awkward squad' - but while that works when your PLP awkward squad are a few dozen MPs and your supporters are in the 100s (as was the case for Blair), it won't work when your supporters are a few dozen MPs and your awkward squad (i.e. those who didn't support Corbyn in the PLP) are in the hundreds.

[ProfessorDavey]

I think it's very difficult, as the Blairites have a sense of entitlement, as far as I can see, so they will continue to attack Corbyn as somehow illegitimate.   On the other hand, Corbyn can't just expel all Blairites, that is just too bloody, and also you have to offer them a kind of modus vivendi.    Plus, of course, practically the whole media are anti-Corbyn, so it's quite hard to find out what is really going on.

Not sure the Blairites do have a sense of entitlement - but it isn't just the Blarites is it - Corbyn represents a tiny proportion of the PLP - those who oppose him include the most right of the party Blairites, but also the more centrist (of the party) Brownites, and even many who consider themselves toward the left of the party.