More US election stuff

[L.A.]

The redneck vote is already his. He needs to get the votes of people who disapprove of killing Democrats.

That's 'yesterdays news', it doesn't even appear on page 1 of google and people have short memories. What they will remember is that he is 'outspoken'.

And I suspect that very few of his supporters spend much time looking through archive material. If he says something really stupid just before the election that might be a different matter.

[jeremyp]

If we have gained anything from the recent referendum, it must surely be that some of the underhanded strategies of political campaigning have been laid bare. People start to believe all kinds of outrageous statements and downright lies if they are repeated often enough and that is part of what Trump is doing.

I doubt he even thinks about long term repercussions - why would he?,  he'd be president by then.

Unlikely

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[L.A.]

Unlikely

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

I hope very much that that forecast is correct, but 'a week is a long time in politics' and the presidential race has more than twelve weeks to go yet - and I dare say that Hilary will find a few banana skins in her path.

[Spud]

Oh come n. He didn't say anything about voting. It sounded to me like he was in the middle of saying they could shoot Clinton down (but in a flippant way) when he realised what he was saying and so just left the end of the sentence hanging.

The context of the remark was what could happen once Clinton was president. This makes it look more like he could have been inciting violence. However, it's not hard to see that it his mind he was still thinking about preventing her becoming president (by not voting for her). He seems the type who would contradict himself by mistake.

[wigginhall]

As soon as he says Second Amendment, people are thinking guns.   In fact, you can see people in the audience looking gob-smacked.   As NS said, it's classic bait and switch, so he can deny the reference to guns.    But it's what kids do - I didn't really say you're a bitch, it just came out funny.   Just using such tricks disqualifies you from office, I think. 

[L.A.]

As soon as he says Second Amendment, people are thinking guns.   In fact, you can see people in the audience looking gob-smacked.   As NS said, it's classic bait and switch, so he can deny the reference to guns.    But it's what kids do - I didn't really say you're a bitch, it just came out funny.   Just using such tricks disqualifies you from office, I think.

Maybe it should disqualify him but unfortunately it doesn't and there is still plenty of time for the election to swing his way.

We live in scary times.

[Spud]

I disagree with him on the gun issue, but I don't doubt he can be honest, and that he was in this case. Clinton supporters would, of course, assume he was dishonest.

[jeremyp]

I disagree with him on the gun issue, but I don't doubt he can be honest, and that he was in this case. Clinton supporters would, of course, assume he was dishonest.

What do you think he said honestly?

[Jack Knave]

Oh come n. He didn't say anything about voting. It sounded to me like he was in the middle of saying they could shoot Clinton down (but in a flippant way) when he realised what he was saying and so just left the end of the sentence hanging.

What you can read peoples' minds now!!! What justification do you have for that?

[Jack Knave]

We were discussing this incident at work the other day and came to the conclusion that Trump (or at least his speech-writers) is too clever to accidentally make a mistake like this.  Instead the whole point was to leave everything hanging so that if anyone as to attempt an assassination attempt it couldn't be hung on Trump.

Are you saying everything he says is on autocue? He sounds to me to be ad-libbing it.

[Jack Knave]

That's not the point here. The question is whether the ambiguities caused by this type of rambling are somehow  cleverly conceived to be that way.

I don't think it is ramblings or autocue, but prepared venom.

[jeremyp]

What you can read peoples' minds now!!! What justification do you have for that?

I said "it sounded to me like..." It's pretty obvious from that that this was my opinion based on the words that I heard him say. No further justification needed.

Have you found out what "justification" means yet?

[Jack Knave]

Maybe it should disqualify him but unfortunately it doesn't and there is still plenty of time for the election to swing his way.

We live in scary times.

His party are trying to ditch him, so perhaps...

[jeremyp]

His party are trying to ditch him, so perhaps...

Yes I heard that too. And some of my American acquaintances are pretty nervous about the possibility. They think the GOP might replace him with somebody who can beat Hillary. Of course, were he to continue as an independent, it would split the vote. If he didn't continue there might be enough Trump supporters who would refuse to vote for anybody else to give the election to Hillary even without a split vote.

[Jack Knave]

I said "it sounded to me like..." It's pretty obvious from that that this was my opinion based on the words that I heard him say. No further justification needed.

Yes, but why? That still needs a justification for it, unless you are saying your viewpoints aren't worth diddly squat.

[Jack Knave]

Yes I heard that too. And some of my American acquaintances are pretty nervous about the possibility. They think the GOP might replace him with somebody who can beat Hillary. Of course, were he to continue as an independent, it would split the vote. If he didn't continue there might be enough Trump supporters who would refuse to vote for anybody else to give the election to Hillary even without a split vote.

Firstly, I believe there is a Green candidacy standing in the Presidential elections, so I can't see why say McCain supporters don't go for her, thereby mixing things up in the probability stakes. And secondly I believe it is too late to get your name on the ballot paper so Trump couldn't stand as an independent.

[L.A.]

His party are trying to ditch him, so perhaps...

It's a bit late for that now, they have nominated him.

[Spud]

What do you think he said honestly?

That, "The Second Amendment people have tremendous power because they are so united,” which he told a CBS affiliate in North Carolina late on Tuesday.

[Spud]

There was also the fact that he didn't pause after the "...I don't know". He usually pauses after saying something he knows will shock people.

[jeremyp]

Yes, but why? That still needs a justification for it, unless you are saying your viewpoints aren't worth diddly squat.

The justification is the words he said. Listen to them.

[jeremyp]

secondly I believe it is too late to get your name on the ballot paper so Trump couldn't stand as an independent.

Not quite. They still have about a week to get on enough state ballots to have a chance.

https://ballotpedia.org/Important_dates_in_the_2016_presidential_race

[jeremyp]

That, "The Second Amendment people have tremendous power because they are so united,” which he told a CBS affiliate in North Carolina late on Tuesday.

What else?

Actually, I'll save you time:

And by the way, if she gets to pick - if she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do, folks. Although the Second Amendment people, maybe there is, I don't know.

[L.A.]

But that statement is totally ambiguous. It could mean:

Gunmen will be encouraged to assassinate her

or

There will be armed insurrection

or simply

They will organise democratic protest


You hear what you want to hear.

[jeremyp]

But that statement is totally ambiguous. It could mean:

Gunmen will be encouraged to assassinate her

or

There will be armed insurrection

or simply

They will organise democratic protest


You hear what you want to hear.

If it was just going to end in "democratic protest" why would you refer to people with guns?

[L.A.]

If it was just going to end in "democratic protest" why would you refer to people with guns?

Because they are a well organised group and to be fair, they have used democratic means in the past to make their case.

https://www.quora.com/Why-is-the-NRA-so-effective-at-lobbying