The Tariff Myth of the EU

[Jack Knave]

http://static1.squarespace.com/static/570a10a460b5e93378a26ac5/t/5721e1c0859fd021feaf2538/1461838293405/Economists+for+Brexit+-+The+Economy+After+Brexit+.pdf


Page 13

"In fact, matters are or should be quite clear. The EU is a protectionist customs union that erects
a sizeable wall of tariffs and other trade barriers around its ‘single market’ in agriculture and
manufactured products. In services there is no unified EU trade barrier or other commercial policy
but rather a few EU regulations of little effect plus a mass of national barriers of one sort or another.
The effect of EU trade policy is therefore to leave services alone but to raise prices inside the
protective wall (which includes us) for both agriculture and manufacturing. Estimates - based on my
own research (Minford et al, 2015) and that of others who have tried to quantify the elusive effect
of non-tariff barriers - are that currently both agriculture and manufactures have prices about 20 %
higher than world prices. For purposes of projecting the future I will assume they fall somehow to a
more modest 10 % by say 2020."

[L.A.]

It's all very well for a group of economists to express the opinion that we would be better off if we were free to trade with anyone . . . but they aren't the ones who have to negotiate the trade deals.

Hypothetically, yes, I would 'kind of' agree. If we were free to export to any country in the world without tariffs, that seems really good . . . but then, would we really want to allow unrestricted imports? . . . what about stuff like Chinese Steel?

In reality, politics is very much a part of the equation and that means complex trade deals with some give and take; so no, an economist prediction taken in isolation is not really very helpful because they have no idea what the final terms might be.

[ProfessorDavey]

http://static1.squarespace.com/static/570a10a460b5e93378a26ac5/t/5721e1c0859fd021feaf2538/1461838293405/Economists+for+Brexit+-+The+Economy+After+Brexit+.pdf


Page 13

"In fact, matters are or should be quite clear. The EU is a protectionist customs union that erects
a sizeable wall of tariffs and other trade barriers around its ‘single market’ in agriculture and
manufactured products. In services there is no unified EU trade barrier or other commercial policy
but rather a few EU regulations of little effect plus a mass of national barriers of one sort or another.
The effect of EU trade policy is therefore to leave services alone but to raise prices inside the
protective wall (which includes us) for both agriculture and manufacturing. Estimates - based on my
own research (Minford et al, 2015) and that of others who have tried to quantify the elusive effect
of non-tariff barriers - are that currently both agriculture and manufactures have prices about 20 %
higher than world prices. For purposes of projecting the future I will assume they fall somehow to a
more modest 10 % by say 2020."

Hmm - does this sound like the kind of thing that a reputable independent economic body would write or something from a few 'opinion for hire' economist producing a biased campaigning material.

So who is likely to be credible and independent:

OECD
Treasury
IMF
OBR
G7
Bank of England
LSE
etc, etc, etc

Or

www.economistsforbrexit.com

Hmm - not a difficult question really is it.

Ae still await a credible, independent and (ideally) international economic organisation to conclude anything other than that the UK economy (and the UK population) will take a sizeable hit in both the short and long terms if we leave the EU.

[floo]

In my opinion we are better in the EU than out of it.

[jakswan]

Hmm - does this sound like the kind of thing that a reputable independent economic body would write or something from a few 'opinion for hire' economist producing a biased campaigning material.

So who is likely to be credible and independent:

OECD
Treasury
IMF
OBR
G7
Bank of England
LSE
etc, etc, etc

Or

www.economistsforbrexit.com

Hmm - not a difficult question really is it.

Ae still await a credible, independent and (ideally) international economic organisation to conclude anything other than that the UK economy (and the UK population) will take a sizeable hit in both the short and long terms if we leave the EU.

The credibility of many of those organisations collapsed when it claimed disaster for the UK if it didn't join the Euro and when some of them made bold predictions about 15 year GDP when it can't accurately predict the next three monthes.

[ProfessorDavey]

The credibility of many of those organisations collapsed when it claimed disaster for the UK if it didn't join the Euro

Evidence please.

Certainly can't have been the OBR as it didn't exist at the time of the inception of the Euro and the debates over whether the UK should join.

Nor the IMF as they produced a report at the time which effectively outlines a number of huge hurdles to the UK joining.

Nor the treasury as it was them, lead by Gordon Brown who were instrumental in persuading Tony Blair (who was supportive on political rather than economic grounds) not to consider joining.

So come on then, lets have some evidence - or is this just more Brexit unevidenced assertion, handwaving and mistruths.

[jakswan]

So come on then, lets have some evidence - or is this just more Brexit unevidenced assertion, handwaving and mistruths.

As opposed to the spin, inaccurate sound-bites and downright lies coming from the treasury?

[Jack Knave]

It's all very well for a group of economists to express the opinion that we would be better off if we were free to trade with anyone . . . but they aren't the ones who have to negotiate the trade deals.

Hypothetically, yes, I would 'kind of' agree. If we were free to export to any country in the world without tariffs, that seems really good . . . but then, would we really want to allow unrestricted imports? . . . what about stuff like Chinese Steel?

In reality, politics is very much a part of the equation and that means complex trade deals with some give and take; so no, an economist prediction taken in isolation is not really very helpful because they have no idea what the final terms might be.

We would work within the WTO, which is there to ensure fair play and to outlaw dumping and other underhand methods.

[Jack Knave]

Hmm - does this sound like the kind of thing that a reputable independent economic body would write or something from a few 'opinion for hire' economist producing a biased campaigning material.

So who is likely to be credible and independent:

OECD
Treasury
IMF
OBR
G7
Bank of England
LSE
etc, etc, etc

Or

www.economistsforbrexit.com

Hmm - not a difficult question really is it.

Ae still await a credible, independent and (ideally) international economic organisation to conclude anything other than that the UK economy (and the UK population) will take a sizeable hit in both the short and long terms if we leave the EU.

They are all just human beings, none are better than the other just that some are bias and have no skin in the game, and on that score should be ignored.

[Jack Knave]

In my opinion we are better in the EU than out of it.

You're in depth argument is so compelling, Floo, how will the Leave campaign ever have a chance.