Were Out!

[Bubbles]

I think Labour are very much a side-show at the moment, they may or may not sort themselves out in time for a GE - but, like  it or not, it's going to be the Tories who decide the EU issues.

I just hope someone like Nigel Farage doesn't get voted in, in  the resultant vacuum.

All the disallusioned labour supporters are going to vote for something, liberal democrats might do well out of it.

I just hope it's not UKIP.

I think a lot of  people just hope they fade away now we have left the EU, but I suspect not.

It seems to me Nigel Farage enjoys the power and winding up the other MEPs.

Having had a taste of power, I think he might be addicted.

 

[L.A.]

And they will get them because the alternative is no farming industry. However, this thread start because Jack Knave was suggesting we need free trade. If Jack Knave gets what he wants, it means no subsidies for farmers which, in turn, means no farmers.

I think we will hear calls for a New Zealand type system from many people over coming months. If we are free from the Common Agricultural Policy all options are up for grabs.

[wigginhall]

It looks like Boris is going for soft Brexit, although no doubt that some of the hard-liners want hard Brexit.   As others have said, this means farmers have to sink or swim, depending on largesse from the government.  Ditto other groups.

[L.A.]

It looks like Boris is going for soft Brexit, although no doubt that some of the hard-liners want hard Brexit.   As others have said, this means farmers have to sink or swim, depending on largesse from the government.  Ditto other groups.

Boris will opt for whatever option looks like it will get in into Downing Street

[Bubbles]

I don't think the EU is going to go for a soft Brexit.

I don't know if we keep delaying and they think we are harming the rest of Europe they might impose sanctions.

Is that a possibility?

They can't force us to put in article 50, but they might get antsy if they see it as harmful to the EU.

Like someone said we are in unchartered waters.

I could just see someone bringing in a clause ( a bit like when a tender goes over) and punishing us for the delay ( having indicated exit  it with the Brexit vote and previous conversations).

I'm unsure what they could do if we tried to delay by years. ( which Boris indicated it could be several years and some others that we could wait at least a year)

[jeremyp]

Not according to this

https://www.fginsight.com/news/eustice-interview---farming-minister-seeks-to-reassure-industry-over-brexit-13173

That link isn't working for me but given nobody has any clue what is going to happen in the future how much do you think anybody's reassurances are worth at the moment?

I think it sounds like many farmers were brassed off with EU regulations and decided to take the risk.

Regulations like "don't put horse meat in beef lasagne"?

I hope they can secure a good deal because I think our farming industry is a very important part of the structure of our country especially if we are being independent.

Which is why we have to replace the CAP with something very similar.

[jeremyp]

I think we will hear calls for a New Zealand type system from many people over coming months. If we are free from the Common Agricultural Policy all options are up for grabs.

A New Zealand type deal would mean the end for most farmers. I'm not saying it is the wrong ting to do, but let us be completely clear about the consequences.

[jeremyp]

I don't think the EU is going to go for a soft Brexit.

I think they would let us have something broadly similar to the Norway deal.

I don't know if we keep delaying and they think we are harming the rest of Europe they might impose sanctions.

Is that a possibility?

No. Until we put in article 50 and for two years afterwards, we will still be full members of the EU. They can't legally impose sanctions against one of their own members.

I'm unsure what they could do if we tried to delay by years. ( which Boris indicated it could be several years and some others that we could wait at least a year)

They would have to force the issue somehow. The longer the current situation goes on for, the more damage is being done to everybody.

The only reason why anybody would not trigger article 50 right now is because they think they can stop it from happening at all. If Boris has said he will wait a year or two, it's because he doesn't want to leave. There is no other possible explanation.

[L.A.]

A New Zealand type deal would mean the end for most farmers. I'm not saying it is the wrong ting to do, but let us be completely clear about the consequences.

That was the point I was making earlier, but I think it might be a very good option for big companies.

I can see pros and cons both ways but once we abandon the CAP it must be on the agenda.

[BeRational]

Perhaps he is hoping we can stay in, with some new rules on freedom of movement of people.

That seems to not allowed at all.

[jeremyp]

Perhaps he is hoping we can stay in, with some new rules on freedom of movement of people.

That seems to not allowed at all.

I think all the rhetoric about restrictions on immigrants is just that. The referendum was won mostly on the immigration issue but, since, immigration is good for public finances and good for people who own companies that employ people, no Conservative government really has the will to reduce it.

Boris is just paying lip service because immigration was the hot issue and his only chance of political survival is to keep the UK in the EU and get some concession that makes it look like he has fixed the immigration issue even if he hasn't (not that there is an immigration issue in reality).

[BeRational]

I think all the rhetoric about restrictions on immigrants is just that. The referendum was won mostly on the immigration issue but, since, immigration is good for public finances and good for people who own companies that employ people, no Conservative government really has the will to reduce it.

Boris is just paying lip service because immigration was the hot issue and his only chance of political survival is to keep the UK in the EU and get some concession that makes it look like he has fixed the immigration issue even if he hasn't (not that there is an immigration issue in reality).

I agree, and much to the dismay of the people that voted leave in the hope that it would reduce immigration, are going to be very disappointed when they realize that will no happen.

[wigginhall]

Sounds like a lot of finagling is in order.  We are in control of immigration (except those that are absolutely necessary), we're not paying any money to EU any more, (well, only covertly),  and we are not subject to EU rules (except those in the list of addenda).   Politics, schmolitics.

[Jack Knave]

You do understand that no tariffs at all means the end of the farming industry?

We will do what we need to do to safeguard our industries as far as possible.

[Jack Knave]

No one will be doing us any favours. Even Germany have restated that that access to the single market and freedom of movement are inseparable. A 'Norway deal' is probably the best we can hope for - and we will have to pay!

Oh come on, that's just their first move. Everyone will be talking tough at the start.

[Jack Knave]

And they will get them because the alternative is no farming industry. However, this thread start because Jack Knave was suggesting we need free trade. If Jack Knave gets what he wants, it means no subsidies for farmers which, in turn, means no farmers.

I don't think you know what the term free trade deal means.

[jeremyp]

We will do what we need to do to safeguard our industries as far as possible.

In a free trade economy, "as far as possible" means not at all. That's the whole point, our farms will have to compete on level terms with farms from all over the World.

[jeremyp]

I don't think you know what the term free trade deal means.

You can't agree free trade with somebody else whilst subsidising your own industry. That amounts to the same thing as applying tariffs. Sorry, but you lose.

In fact we all lose.

[Jack Knave]

Boris will opt for whatever option looks like it will get in into Downing Street

Lying!!!

[Nearly Sane]

Lying!!!

You don't appear to know what lying means.

[jeremyp]

You don't appear to know what lying means.

Or what a free trade deal is.

Or how economics works.

Or how politics works.

In fact, I'm gravely concerned that he was allowed to vote in the referendum.

[Jack Knave]

I think all the rhetoric about restrictions on immigrants is just that. The referendum was won mostly on the immigration issue but, since, immigration is good for public finances and good for people who own companies that employ people, no Conservative government really has the will to reduce it.

Boris is just paying lip service because immigration was the hot issue and his only chance of political survival is to keep the UK in the EU and get some concession that makes it look like he has fixed the immigration issue even if he hasn't (not that there is an immigration issue in reality).

If that happens the war will gone on and with even more vehemently.

[Jack Knave]

In a free trade economy, "as far as possible" means not at all. That's the whole point, our farms will have to compete on level terms with farms from all over the World.

That's not what a ftd means.

[Jack Knave]

You can't agree free trade with somebody else whilst subsidising your own industry. That amounts to the same thing as applying tariffs. Sorry, but you lose.

In fact we all lose.

A ftd does not have to include all things. Just as long as the parties agree to what is on the table, that's it.

[jeremyp]

That's not what a ftd means.

Sorry, you don't know what you are taking about. How can it be a free trade deal if one side is loading the dice?