The Economy is in for a rough ride

[jeremyp]

All I'm saying is that this time, with this forecast and assessment, they were doing what they are suppose to in the manner that they should, not playing politics with the facts.

That's a classic case of confirmation bias.

How do you know that they weren't doing what they are supposed in the manner that they should before and they are not playing politics with the facts now.

[Jack Knave]

That's a classic case of confirmation bias.

How do you know that they weren't doing what they are supposed in the manner that they should before and they are not playing politics with the facts now.

No it's not.

Past performance and record.

[jeremyp]

No it's not.

Yes it is.

Past performance and record.

But according to you, their past performance was biased by politics. Therefore you should not be listening to them.

[Jack Knave]

Yes it is.
But according to you, their past performance was biased by politics. Therefore you should not be listening to them.

No it's not!

One event is not a past performance dumbass!!....especially as they have been around for eons.

[jeremyp]

No it's not!

One event is not a past performance dumbass!!....especially as they have been around for eons.

Cherry picking. Before the vote the Bank of England was predicting economic turmoil just like almost all the other experts. Why did you not listen to them then?

[Spud]

What careless talk like we'll spend 350 million on the NHS? 

Oh sorry that wasn't careless talk that was a bare-faced lie.

Wasn't the idea that we could spend it on that if we chose to?

[SqueakyVoice]

Wasn't the idea that we could spend it on that if we chose to?

No. The idea was to lie to the British electorate.

It was the equivalent of me claiming that I'm not going to give you a million pounds, therefore I'm a millionaire.

[jeremyp]

Wasn't the idea that we could spend it on that if we chose to?

First of all, the £350 million never existed. That was the figure for our gross contribution. In fact, once you take into account all the money we get back in various ways , it is a much smaller figure in net terms. Then, when you take into account the decrease in forecast government income caused by the slow down that eats further into the figure.

Secondly, who chooses? Actually we don't choose the government does. The government is likely to plough the saving into managing the deficit rather than handing out cash to hospitals.

[Jack Knave]

Cherry picking. Before the vote the Bank of England was predicting economic turmoil just like almost all the other experts. Why did you not listen to them then?

Because their forecasts were based on political considerations not economic ones.

[jeremyp]

Because their forecasts were based on political considerations not economic ones.

So this latest forecast is based on political considerations too. Why do you believe it?

[Jack Knave]

So this latest forecast is based on political considerations too. Why do you believe it?

No it's not.

[jeremyp]

No it's not.

So all the forecasts you disagree with were subject to political bias but this one you agree with is not?

That's a text book example of confirmation bias.

[Spud]

First of all, the £350 million never existed. That was the figure for our gross contribution.

But we lose control of how it is spent. So in theory we could have spent it all on the NHS?

[Aruntraveller]

But we lose control of how it is spent. So in theory we could have spent it all on the NHS?

Yes at the expense of farmers, scientists, etc. The problems were a) the figure was false, b) there were too many losers if you spent the figure on the NHS or any other single beneficiary.

[Brownie]

As the figure was false it is purely hypothetical but 110b could go to each - NHS, farmers, scientists - leaving 20b which I could pocket as it was my idea.  I'd give you some!

[jeremyp]

But we lose control of how it is spent.

I like the way people look at the government in Westminster and assume they are "we".

You will have no control whatsoever in how the hundred odd million we save in membership fees will be spent.

So in theory we could have spent it all on the NHS?

No, because it doesn't really exist. The figure is and has always been a lie.

If the money isn't spent in more or less the same way as it is now,  lot of people are going to be in serious trouble.

[Spud]

No, because it doesn't really exist. The figure is and has always been a lie.

Copy that.

[JP]

Can anyone say why the FTSE 100 is doing so well?

[Sebastian Toe]

Can anyone say why the FTSE 100 is doing so well?

Well?

[JP]

Well?

Yes. I mean at the end 2015 is was at 6274 and today it is hovering around 6730 so supposing I say reasonably well.

[Sebastian Toe]

Yes. I mean at the end 2015 is was at 6274 and today it is hovering around 6730 so supposing I say reasonably well.

Maybe relatively well would be better?
Relative to end 2015 then well.  Relative to August 2015 it's just catching back up!

[jeremyp]

Can anyone say why the FTSE 100 is doing so well?

Somebody, I think it ws the Prof has explained this: a lot of the companies in the FTSE 100 have their shares traded in dollars. The tanking pound inflates their value.

Having said that, the FTSE 250 is also holding out quite well at the moment.

I think part of it is the fact that we haven't put in Article 50 yet and when we do, a Norway type deal looks to be on the cards which, from a business point of view, is no worse than what we have now.

[Jack Knave]

So all the forecasts you disagree with were subject to political bias but this one you agree with is not?

That's a text book example of confirmation bias.

No, it's about what is done correctly and what is done to cook the books.

[L.A.]

. . .

I think part of it is the fact that we haven't put in Article 50 yet and when we do, a Norway type deal looks to be on the cards which, from a business point of view, is no worse than what we have now.

But the problem is that the 'Hard Brexitors' are are likely to be up in arms if any deal allows free movement of workers - so a Norway type deal would create tremendous conflict, especially when the public finally cotton-on that they have lost more than they have gained.

[Aruntraveller]

especially when the public finally cotton-on that they have lost more than they have gained.

Don't worry. The Express will have that covered. It will all be the fault of those nasty foreigners.