The Economy is in for a rough ride

[Jack Knave]

They are, or suddenly shifted to, blaming Brexit because it saves them admitting that they are the ones who have fucked up here - which they all did decades ago.

[jeremyp]

They are, or suddenly shifted to, blaming Brexit because it saves them admitting that they are the ones who have fucked up here - which they all did decades ago.

They made profits of over two billion pounds last year. One hell of a fuck up.

[Bubbles]

They made profits of over two billion pounds last year. One hell of a fuck up.

No you read it wrong, they have made a 2.5 billion profit in the first half of this year.

The news of fresh job losses came as Lloyds reported a £2.5bn pre-tax profit for the half year to the end of June 2016.
In the same period last year, it made £1.2bn.
The profits rise was largely due to a sharp drop-off in payment protection insurance (PPI) compensation payouts, which dented previous profits.

[Jack Knave]

They made profits of over two billion pounds last year. One hell of a fuck up.

So why are they laying off staff?

[Sebastian Toe]

So why are they laying off staff?

To make more profit?

[jeremyp]

To make more profit?

And they are concerned about Brexit.

[Jack Knave]

And they are concerned about Brexit.

Only because they were in a mess in the first place and this bumpy ride to a better world is making them even more vulnerable.

[JP]

Nissan seem to have it sussed. Wait and see, reasonably optimistic and let common sense prevail.

[L.A.]

Nissan seem to have it sussed. Wait and see, reasonably optimistic and let common sense prevail.

I'd read 'Reasonably Optimistic' as bad news - it just means that they don't have any immediate plans for closing plant.

[JP]

So you believe they have plans to close the plant?

[Harrowby Hall]

I'd read 'Reasonably Optimistic' as bad news - it just means that they don't have any immediate plans for closing plant.

Nissan is controlled by Renault. There is every possibility that Renault would look to the opportunity to more closely integrate production of the two marques and it would be politically expedient for this to be done in France.

This would also affect parts suppliers and service providers in Britain. The number of people who may lose their jobs would not be limited to Nissan employees.

[L.A.]

Nissan is controlled by Renault. There is every possibility that Renault would look to the opportunity to more closely integrate production of the two marques and it would be politically expedient for this to be done in France.

This would also affect parts suppliers and service providers in Britain. The number of people who may lose their jobs would not be limited to Nissan employees.

Exactly, it would be amazing if that thought was not going through the minds of those in the  higher echelons of Nissan/Renault. In that light  'Reasonably Optimistic' sounds pretty weak.

[JP]

But moving it to France has nothing to do with brexit.

[L.A.]

But moving it to France has nothing to do with brexit.

Pre-Brexit Britain was a good place to do business with free access to the European Market - Post Brexit? - well, no one is too sure just at the moment, but it is a fair bet that we won't still have the same access, so if you were a top executive at a multinational company that currently has plant in Britain, you would be reviewing your options - and if the company happened to be Renault, you might have a certain bias.

[JP]

One of the problems I have with the merchants of doom is that nobody knows what will happen. It all needs to be negotiated.

There were rumours about the French Government pressuring to have the operation moved last year but if you want to blame everything on the leave vote well so be it.

[Harrowby Hall]

One of the problems I have with the merchants of doom is that nobody knows what will happen. It all needs to be negotiated.

There were rumours about the French Government pressuring to have the operation moved last year but if you want to blame everything on the leave vote well so be it.

You are missing the point. What the United Kingdom needs is investment. What investors need to have is the confidence that the UK is a good place to do business. All they have at the moment is uncertainty. The exit vote was a negative vote - it was a statement about what people didn't want. No-one had bothered to propose an alternative to "freedom from the EU" (whatever that meant). This has created a level of uncertainty so great that it is unlikely that anyone would perceive the UK as a good place to do business.

If Nissan goes, watch others follow. How long do you think Airbus will continue wing manufacture in Bristol and North Wales?

I just hope, now, that Mrs May will see that she needs to do something rather more than try to mollify the Conservative Party. She should stop being a politician and become a leader.

[wigginhall]

The Bank of England don't seem too rosy about the future.   I think Carney is predicting job losses, as the economy contracts, even with his measures.   Watch the Brexit people say either that these are bumps in the road, leading to a new brighter Britain, or that Carney is deliberately exaggerating, or that an economic downturn was going to happen anyway.   

[floo]

You are missing the point. What the United Kingdom needs is investment. What investors need to have is the confidence that the UK is a good place to do business. All they have at the moment is uncertainty. The exit vote was a negative vote - it was a statement about what people didn't want. No-one had bothered to propose an alternative to "freedom from the EU" (whatever that meant). This has created a level of uncertainty so great that it is unlikely that anyone would perceive the UK as a good place to do business.

(((((If Nissan goes, watch others follow. How long do you think Airbus will continue wing manufacture in Bristol and North Wales?)))))

I just hope, now, that Mrs May will see that she needs to do something rather more than try to mollify the Conservative Party. She should stop being a politician and become a leader.

I too was wondering about Airbus. The factory and airport are a couple of miles or so down the road from us. The Beluga, the nickname of the aircraft, which takes the wings to France, flies over us several times a day. I reckon it would affect our area BIG TIME, so many houses have been built in the area, partly to accommodate the Airbus workers. As it is house prices have fallen, and quite a number of those, which were under offer before Brexit are back on the market.

[JP]

My point is a different one. All the merchants of doom will tell you Nissan are going and it's Brexit to blame, however a long time ago Nissan were under pressure, with the French government interfering in their relationship with Renault with a view to it benefitting guess who, oh its the French.

I understand things have stalled as a result of the vote but with regard to what may or may not happen, it is nothing more that pure speculation.

[L.A.]

One of the problems I have with the merchants of doom is that nobody knows what will happen. It all needs to be negotiated.

There were rumours about the French Government pressuring to have the operation moved last year but if you want to blame everything on the leave vote well so be it.

The thing that I find infuriating is that all the problems we now see occurring were predicted - but that was just 'experts' so what do they know?

. . . . and it was all written-off as 'Project Fear'

. . . . and 52% of voters were naive enough to believe it.

In short - YES I DO VERY MUCH BLAME THE LEAVE CAMPAIGN.

I suspect that most people of my age will never again be as well-off as we were on the 23rd of June and young people face a very uncertain future, but I suppose it's much easier for them to emigrate.

[wigginhall]

Well, Carney's speculations presumably carry some weight, unless you are going to say that he is deliberately exaggerating the dangers of recession.   I would think also that the new chancellor is working hard, thinking up fiscal measures to relax austerity, so as to avoid recession.    I think that was the austerity developed by the last chancellor, wasn't it?   Who's in charge of the asylum?

[wigginhall]

This comment on the FT website has been making waves, quite eloquent; he's talking about 'three tragedies' about Brexit:

"Firstly, it was the working classes who voted for us to leave because they were economically disregarded and it is they who will suffer the most in the short term from the dearth of jobs and investment. They have merely swapped one distant and unreachable elite for another one.

Secondly, the younger generation has lost the right to live and work in 27 other countries. We will never know the full extent of the lost opportunities, friendships, marriages and experiences we will be denied. Freedom of movement was taken away by our parents, uncles, and grandparents in a parting blow to a generation that was already drowning in the debts of our predecessors.

Thirdly and perhaps most significantly, we now live in a post-factual democracy. When the facts met the myths they were as useless as bullets bouncing off the bodies of aliens in a HG Wells novel. When Michael Gove said ‘the British people are sick of experts’ he was right. But can anybody tell me the last time a prevailing culture of anti-intellectualism has lead to anything other than bigotry."

[JP]

People of the generation who follow me are already worse off and it has nothing to do with Brexit. Ask the ones who paid through the nose for property or simply cannot afford to but a home of their own, and add to that poor wage growth, the arse falling out of workplace pensions and them probably having to work until they are seventy.

[L.A.]

People of the generation who follow me are already worse off and it has nothing to do with Brexit. Ask the ones who paid through the nose for property or simply cannot afford to but a home of their own, and add to that poor wage growth, the arse falling out of workplace pensions and them probably having to work until they are seventy.

I'd agree with quite a lot of that, but Brexit is not going to improve anything for anyone - except speculators who must be raking it in at the moment.

[JP]

This comment on the FT website has been making waves, quite eloquent; he's talking about 'three tragedies' about Brexit:

"Firstly, it was the working classes who voted for us to leave because they were economically disregarded and it is they who will suffer the most in the short term from the dearth of jobs and investment. They have merely swapped one distant and unreachable elite for another one.

They are always the ones to suffer, so if they suffer in or out of Europe does it really matter to them?

People who do not suffer will contine to not suffer, not like the "working classes". This has been brewing for a long, long time. When things are a grind, it doesn't matter where it happens, or how. It is still the same old grind. See "unreachable" in the above quote.