The Economy is in for a rough ride

[wigginhall]

The FT guy isn't saying that everything was wonderful - far from it.  But that Brexit is going to make it worse. 

[JP]

I'd agree with quite a lot of that, but Brexit is not going to improve anything for anyone - except speculators who must be raking it in at the moment.

Don't get me wrong, I voted in myself but and think leaving was a poor choice however I would rather wait and see how it all plays out before coming to any conclusion. There is a lot of mileage in this yet.

[wigginhall]

I guess that Carney is not going to wait and see.    And presumably the government will take measures, e.g. reduce VAT, or whatever, to reduce the risk of recession.   Austerity is good - no, sorry, austerity is now bad. 

[L.A.]

They are always the ones to suffer, so if they suffer in or out of Europe does it really matter to them?

People who do not suffer will contine to not suffer, not like the "working classes". This has been brewing for a long, long time. When things are a grind, it doesn't matter where it happens, or how. It is still the same old grind. See "unreachable" in the above quote.

If you consider the example of Sunderland an area with a high Brexit vote, Nissan workers with good well paid jobs apparently voted in a way likely to result in the closure of their factory. Even non-Nissan workers will suffer if the plant closes there will be  economic devastation in the area.

[jeremyp]

But moving it to France has nothing to do with brexit.

Yes it does. They wouldn't do it now because of the cost. However, as soon as tariffs get slapped on British made cars, the economics of moving change.

[JP]

Yes it does. They wouldn't do it now because of the cost. However, as soon as tariffs get slapped on British made cars, the economics of moving change.

Where is the evidence to say Nissan exiting the UK is happening, and would be utterly and solely to do with Brexit.

Tarrifs on British made cars could be countered with tarrifs on cars made in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Czechoslovakia

[Udayana]

Little in economics is utterly and solely due to any one event.

We can impose tariffs on EU made vehicles - this will affect EU car manufacturers but this will be limited as the largest proportion of their sales are in the rest of the EU. However EU tariffs on British made cars (likely 10%) will have a much larger effect on UK manufactures (if any remain) as the EU is a bigger proportion of our potential market (around 50%). In addition decreased output will mean reduction in economies of scale.

To remain viable requires increased sales in alternative large markets - but to get this we would also need to open up to imports from countries with lower wage costs than the UK and EU - so still a risk for UK manufacturers.

On the hopeful side, all this will probably take years to work itself out.

[jakswan]

Where is the evidence to say Nissan exiting the UK is happening, and would be utterly and solely to do with Brexit.

Tarrifs on British made cars could be countered with tarrifs on cars made in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Czechoslovakia

Also with the lower pound Nissan are doing even better being based in UK.

[Nearly Sane]

As someone whose contract is now not going to continue, in part because of Brexit, I am somewhat pissed off

[L.A.]

Where is the evidence to say Nissan exiting the UK is happening, and would be utterly and solely to do with Brexit.

It is entirely possible that Nissan/Renault might have been considering ways to consolidate their European manufacturing operations long before Brexit raised it's ugly head, but if they end up facing tariffs, customs delays and difficulties transferring European staff between plants - it will likely be the final straw as far as the UK is concerned.

Tarrifs on British made cars could be countered with tariffs on cars made in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Czechoslovakia

I don't think that starting a Trade War is going to help anyone - certainly not us.

[L.A.]

Also with the lower pound Nissan are doing even better being based in UK.

It won't be quite as simple as that.  It's true that some components are manufactured in the UK but many are manufactured in Europe. Labour rates should be lowered in the short term, but as inflation cuts-in there will be upward pressure from the unions.

[jakswan]

As someone whose contract is now not going to continue, in part because of Brexit, I am somewhat pissed off

I don't recall you arguing against?

[Nearly Sane]

I don't recall you arguing against?

I did not spend much time on it here but your memory is wrong. And your point somewhat irrelevant to me currently. I am far from alone on this but you were happy for this to happen.

[jakswan]

I did not spend much time on it here but your memory is wrong. And your point somewhat irrelevant to me currently. I am far from alone on this but you were happy for this to happen.

Happy to vote the way i did given the arguments put forward, I don't recall any of yours.

[Nearly Sane]

Happy to vote the way i did given the arguments put forward, I don't recall any of yours.

that you have a faulty memory and are happy that my contract and thousands of others are ending is worth so much to me.

[jakswan]

that you have a faulty memory and are happy that my contract and thousands of others are ending is worth so much to me.

My memory is what it is, I don't recall any of your arguments, point me in the direction of them.

I have no where said I'm happy your contract is ending, please don't make things up.

[Nearly Sane]

My memory is what it is, I don't recall any of your arguments, point me in the direction of them.

I have no where said I'm happy your contract is ending, please don't make things up.

you are happy with the effects of the vote.

[jakswan]

you are happy with the effects of the vote.

No not all of them, where did you get that idea?

[L.A.]

No not all of them, where did you get that idea?

I'd be interested to know which effects you are happy with, I'm buggered if I can see anything to be happy about.



P.S. bye the way the hyperlinks are great.

[Nearly Sane]

No not all of them, where did you get that idea?

your vote

[jakswan]

your vote

There will be downsides to leaving which I'm not happy with stop being ridiculous. If indyref had resulted in independence and the Scots economy tanked we should assume you would be happy?

[Bubbles]

I'd be interested to know which effects you are happy with, I'm buggered if I can see anything to be happy about.



P.S. bye the way the hyperlinks are great.

Be happy you and yours are healthy and that you have food on the table.

[jakswan]

I'd be interested to know which effects you are happy with, I'm buggered if I can see anything to be happy about

P.S. bye the way the hyperlinks are great.

The credible sources that you and Davey cited predicted a 0.5 % short term technical recession, looks like they were wrong but growth has slowed. Contrary to NS nonsense I'm not happy that anyone should lose out.

I still think we will be better off in the long term.

[Nearly Sane]

The credible sources that you and Davey cited predicted a 0.5 % short term technical recession, looks like they were wrong but growth has slowed. Contrary to NS nonsense I'm not happy that anyone should lose out.

I still think we will be better off in the long term.

Stop being inconsistent. If you think this is for the best you are happy with the effects.

[jakswan]

Stop being inconsistent. If you think this is for the best you are happy with the effects.

Stop being a wum. Bremainers bremoaners.