The Economy is in for a rough ride

[Aruntraveller]

Brexit was about migration, sovereignty and finding our own way in the world. as we always have.

With regard to my economic credentials, I have none, the same as everyone else on here, that's why I quoted the best available authority - Joseph E.Stiglitz, rather than rely on second and third rate, uninformed, scare-mongering.

Finding our own way? What by subjugating other countries and in essence asset stripping them. Im not sure that will work again. As i said you can trade economists all night. You think thee wont be a price to pay. I  and a lot of other economists think you are wrong. Time will tell.

[BashfulAnthony]

Finding our own way? What by subjugating other countries and in essence asset stripping them. Im not sure that will work again. As i said you can trade economists all night. You think thee wont be a price to pay. I  and a lot of other economists think you are wrong. Time will time will tell

"Subjugating other countries and asset-stripping them"??  What century are you living in?  I don't know how things will pan out; but we are talking here about months and years ahead, and nobody, certainly not the scare-mongers, or Osborne/Cameron followers can know.  I have hope and I can find lots of informed people who think so, too.  It was the hysteria and scare-mongering that caused the dip within 12 hours of Brexit; but now, we are returning to reality.  Save us from these hysterical and uninformed scare-mongers.  Fortunately, people are now getting wise to such tactics of despair.

[BashfulAnthony]

The Brexit bunch will no doubt blame everyone but their idiot selves when the proverbial hits the fan

No sign of any facts or figures to back up such a comment, of course.  Unless you can prove otherwise.

[floo]

Finding our own way? What by subjugating other countries and in essence asset stripping them. Im not sure that will work again. As i said you can trade economists all night. You think thee wont be a price to pay. I  and a lot of other economists think you are wrong. Time will tell.

Brits were very good at that in the past!

[Jack Knave]

I sincerely hope he is proved right. I just don't think he will be. We can trade economists till the sun goes down. It doesn't change the fact that we are cutting ourselves out of an economic block that we have currently got good trading terms with - and after our exit we will have less favourable terms with.

Anyway I thought it was just about stopping the migrants form coming and putting a strain on all our services. It will all be fine and dandy once they've all gone home and all the good old English lads (and lasses - don't want to be accused of being sexist) get out in the fields and pick the lettuces.

I trust that your questioning of my economic credentials is done so from a position of similar economic knowledge 

There's more to the globe than just the EU!!! Especially as the EU is stagnating.

[L.A.]

Joseph E. Stiglitz, Nobel Prize winner in economics, thinks diametrically the opposite.  And he is not the only one, by any means.  So, on what economic grounds - I trust you are an economist - do you make the above assertions?

Yes, there is an argument that 'on paper' Britain could prosper outside the EU, but I'd wager that not one of these economists has a clue on how to turn the hypothetical possibilities into solid trade agreements and meanwhile we lose a large proportion of our European trade.

And of course the thing is, it's generally not too difficult to find people who want to sell you stuff, but finding customers for your goods tends to be a bit trickier.

[Jack Knave]

Yes, there is an argument that 'on paper' Britain could prosper outside the EU, but I'd wager that not one of these economists has a clue on how to turn the hypothetical possibilities into solid trade agreements and meanwhile we lose a large proportion of our European trade.

And of course the thing is, it's generally not too difficult to find people who want to sell you stuff, but finding customers for your goods tends to be a bit trickier.

This assumes we are going to lose (or much reduced) the trade with the EU, which we will not be the case because they can't afford to be tough on us. They have more to lose with Brexit than we do. Anyway, in 2 odd years time the EU will be very much different and weaker, not only economically but politically.

[floo]

This assumes we are going to lose (or much reduced) the trade with the EU, which we will not be the case because they can't afford to be tough on us. They have more to lose with Brexit than we do. Anyway, in 2 odd years time the EU will be very much different and weaker, not only economically but politically.

I wouldn't hold your breath!

[BashfulAnthony]

Yes, there is an argument that 'on paper' Britain could prosper outside the EU, but I'd wager that not one of these economists has a clue on how to turn the hypothetical possibilities into solid trade agreements and meanwhile we lose a large proportion of our European trade.

And of course the thing is, it's generally not too difficult to find people who want to sell you stuff, but finding customers for your goods tends to be a bit trickier.

Good day, L.A.

I don't suppose there are very many economists who would be effective negotiators.  But that's not their area of expertise.  We have professionals whose job it will be to negotiate deals.  Of course, it is the essence of trade that "we will buy from you, but you will have to buy from us."  We produce enough quality goods to make us attractive trading partners.  When all the bluster and posturing is done, we are in a good position to do deals.  The EU, us, and the rest of the world, need each other.

[L.A.]

Good day, L.A.

I don't suppose there are very many economists who would be effective negotiators.  But that's not their area of expertise.  We have professionals whose job it will be to negotiate deals.  Of course, it is the essence of trade that "we will buy from you, but you will have to buy from us."  We produce enough quality goods to make us attractive trading partners.  When all the bluster and posturing is done, we are in a good position to do deals.  The EU, us, and the rest of the world, need each other.

Hi BA,

one of the problems is that we don't have trade negotiators and we won't have a lot a time to put arrangements in place after article 50. It is possible that eventually we might secure the kinds of trade deals that we need, but it is likely to be a tough journey to get there - if we get there.

[BashfulAnthony]

Hi BA,

one of the problems is that we don't have trade negotiators and we won't have a lot a time to put arrangements in place after article 50. It is possible that eventually we might secure the kinds of trade deals that we need, but it is likely to be a tough journey to get there - if we get there.

L.A.

I believe the Government Department set up to deal with Brexit, is now recruiting personnel.  It will obviously take time to get it all up and running effectively.  No doubt that is one of the reasons Theresa May is holding out before triggering Article 50.

Very warm here.  Hope you are coping where you are!

[L.A.]

L.A.

I believe the Government Department set up to deal with Brexit, is now recruiting personnel.  It will obviously take time to get it all up and running effectively.  No doubt that is one of the reasons Theresa May is holding out before triggering Article 50.

Very warm here.  Hope you are coping where you are!

Hi BA,

quite warm here at Radcliffe on Trent, you are just across town aren't you?

The problem is that time will be of the essence, we can't just put all our industry 'on hold' for a couple of years while they sort things out. Rather worryingly, there are still Brexiteers talking about simply proceeding using World Trade Organisation rules which would mean a lot of foreign companies moving out with all the redundancies and loss of tax revenue and foreign exchange that would follow..

[BashfulAnthony]

Hi BA,

quite warm here at Radcliffe on Trent, you are just across town aren't you?

The problem is that time will be of the essence, we can't just put all our industry 'on hold' for a couple of years while they sort things out. Rather worryingly, there are still Brexiteers talking about simply proceeding using World Trade Organisation rules which would mean a lot of foreign companies moving out with all the redundancies and loss of tax revenue and foreign exchange that would follow..

Hi again, L.A.

I'm in Bulwell now, having down-sized from Lenton.  I came here in face of Bulwell's quite unpromising reputation.  I have found it to be a caring, friendly, lively and down-to-earth, place, and I have some quite wonderful neighbours.

As to all these foreign companies moving out:  I very much doubt it.  Maybe one or two along the line;  but they are only here in the first place because it is to their advantage.  They know what's a good deal,  and I see no reason for that situation to significantly change.

[BashfulAnthony]

I think it's something like 30 years before that will be the case and then the NHS will have ended thanks to Brexiteers.

The NHS will have ended in 30 years?  You've been listening to the unctuous Osborne too long.  Nobody can predict anything that far ahead with the slightest degree of certainty. You Remain losers should stop playing our country down.  We should all now be getting down to make the best possible use of the situation.  Why would anyone want it any other way?

[wigginhall]

There are a number of issues coming down the line, especially if it's going to be hard Brexit.   First, tariffs will be applied, although these vary from 2% to 10%, as far as I can see.  Will this lead to a shrinkage in trade?  Unclear.  Second, if the City loses passporting, this might involve some firms moving to the EU.  Unclear also.  Third, loss of investment.  Unclear.  Fourth, slowdown in growth.  Unclear.

If it's soft Brexit, all change, but seems unlikely at the moment.

So that's all very clear!   The govt is hiding in plain sight, as it's difficult to talk about stuff that you don't know.  It's two years at least to leaving the EU, so likely effects are guesswork.   

[L.A.]

Hi again, L.A.

I'm in Bulwell now, having down-sized from Lenton.  I came here in face of Bulwell's quite unpromising reputation.  I have found it to be a caring, friendly, lively and down-to-earth, place, and I have some quite wonderful neighbours.

As to all these foreign companies moving out:  I very much doubt it.  Maybe one or two along the line;  but they are only here in the first place because it is to their advantage.  They know what's a good deal,  and I see no reason for that situation to significantly change.

They reckon that car manufactures make about a 5% profit. I have heard WTO tariff rates of up to 50% quoted recently on the radio discussions. If it turned out to be anything like that, the Japanese motor manufacturers based in the UK would be insane not to shut up shop immediately.

[wigginhall]

Yes, hard Brexit means WTO rules, which seem to involve tariffs, although 50% sounds very high.  I've read about 10%, but even that is a brake on trade.

[L.A.]

Yes, hard Brexit means WTO rules, which seem to involve tariffs, although 50% sounds very high.  I've read about 10%, but even that is a brake on trade.

10%tariff  would make most of these industries unprofitable.

[wigginhall]

Presumably, they are trying to square the circle - that is, get good trade deals, without tariffs, and retaining passporting, without having to retain freedom of movement.   Sounds improbable, verging on impossible, but there is talk of a bespoke deal.

[L.A.]

Presumably, they are trying to square the circle - that is, get good trade deals, without tariffs, and retaining passporting, without having to retain freedom of movement.   Sounds improbable, verging on impossible, but there is talk of a bespoke deal.

It sounds as if it's going to become a game of brinkmanship, but the stakes are very high for the UK.

[BashfulAnthony]

It sounds as if it's going to become a game of brinkmanship, but the stakes are very high for the UK.

L.A.

But that is all speculation, pure and simple.. Nobody knows what will happen, though I wouldn't mind betting there'll be a few surprises along the way.  But always bear in mind, we are looking at maybe years ahead.  A lot can happen in the total world economy,  in our own, and of course in the shambolic EU.

[L.A.]

L.A.

But that is all speculation, pure and simple.. Nobody knows what will happen, though I wouldn't mind betting there'll be a few surprises along the way.  But always bear in mind, we are looking at maybe years ahead.  A lot can happen in the total world economy,  in our own, and of course in the shambolic EU.

I think you're right that nobody knows how the process will turn out, but the two sides have taken-up positions that are totally incomparable. The EU have stated categorically that there will be no access to the single market without free movement of labour while the British government state equally categorically that there will be no free movement of labour. If no one backs down Britain will not have access to the single marker with all the massive problems that implies. The Brexiteers point out that they could retaliate with tariffs on EU imports, but this would be a very bad option for everyone . . . pure brinkmanship, who will blink first?

[BashfulAnthony]

I think you're right that nobody knows how the process will turn out, but the two sides have taken-up positions that are totally incomparable. The EU have stated categorically that there will be no access to the single market without free movement of labour while the British government state equally categorically that there will be no free movement of labour. If no one backs down Britain will not have access to the single marker with all the massive problems that implies. The Brexiteers point out that they could retaliate with tariffs on EU imports, but this would be a very bad option for everyone . . . pure brinkmanship, who will blink first?

Good morning L.A.,

I think at this stage both sides, particularly Juncker, are busy posturing.  What they contend now, and what they will actually come to terms about are probably a good distance apart.  I think we also have to factor in the possibility of serious changes or crises in the EU and the world economy generally.  Expect the unexpected.  As Harold Macmillan said in a time of crisis,  "events, dear boy, events."  Nobody really has any idea how it will all evolve, and those making predictions are wasting their time.

[jeremyp]

This assumes we are going to lose (or much reduced) the trade with the EU, which we will not be the case because they can't afford to be tough on us.

Yes they can.

Imagine the worst case scenario: all trade with the EU ceases. We would lose 44% of our foreign trade, they would lose about 15%. But it's worse than that, many companies would be forced to leave the UK and relocate to the EU.

Obviously, that's a scenario that will not happen, but what will happen is a miniature version of that. Consider what Nissan will do if every car they export from Washington to an EU country is subject to a 10% tariff (as is allowed under WTO rules). What do you think they will do (bear in mind Nissan is French controlled)?

They have more to lose with Brexit than we do.

Utterly wrong. What planet are you living on? It's not Earth.

[Jack Knave]

Yes they can.

Imagine the worst case scenario: all trade with the EU ceases. We would lose 44% of our foreign trade, they would lose about 15%. But it's worse than that, many companies would be forced to leave the UK and relocate to the EU.

Obviously, that's a scenario that will not happen, but what will happen is a miniature version of that. Consider what Nissan will do if every car they export from Washington to an EU country is subject to a 10% tariff (as is allowed under WTO rules). What do you think they will do (bear in mind Nissan is French controlled)?

Utterly wrong. What planet are you living on? It's not Earth.

But the thing is who is included in that 15%. Some big names who are going to lobby Brussels to give us a nice deal or else they will lose out big time. The EU will also lose our membership fee so putting more pressure on the poorer ones to pay in more and get less out, so they can't afford to lose our ｣60 billion trade deficit we have with them.