The Economy is in for a rough ride

[Jack Knave]

Yes, but if there is a conflict, they will choose the deal that works best for the EU. Furthermore, there are countries in the EU that won't ratify a deal that lets us of the hook too much.

Actually, I'm pretty sure that the EU will offer us a good deal with no tariffs, but we'll have to accept free movement of labour in return.

First of all, no way. We voted for control. As I said the big companies want no tariffs and they will get their way. The EU is at the point of some form of change due to its incompetence and this will be moulded towards what we are seeking.

I said 10% because that is what the likely tariff for car imports will be.

Likely? This is a new deal that is being negotiated so nothing is likely.

Why are you fitting on BMW? I only brought them up as an example. My comment applies ti EU manufacturers in general.

I'm referring to the big corporations because they are the ones with the clout.

Nobody said that tariffs won't hurt the likes of BMW, what they (I) said is that EU companies will be hurt less than British companies.

Can't see how if they work for the best deal for both. They (BMW etc.) are not out to hurt anyone if it means pain for them of any kind. They won't think, "Oh we're getting less hit than they are." All they look for and at are at their books and profits.

Are there? Support for the EU in the EU went up after the Brexit vote.

Really? The people are not happy about it and some are talking about less EU. Renzi showed his discontent at the Bratislava conference. Junckhead and Tusk clashed over the vision for the EU. I suggest you do some homework on the issue.

And to add to this some Belgium official said Hungary should be kicked out of the EU. Yes, everything looks happy and contented in the EU camp!!! 

Politically, the EU needs to give us a tough time and we both agree that the EU sometimes does ignore economics in order to achieve a political end.

You mean it is cut its nose off to spit its face; drive itself into the ground!

[Jack Knave]

That isn't that way that it works Jack. Although they obviously sell cars in the UK, companies such as Nissan set-up manufacturing facilities in the UK primarily to serve the EU.. These kinds of manufacturing operations are quite 'finely balanced' as there is not a great profit margin in manufacturing cars. What might seem a small increase in costs could potentially make the whole operation nonviable.

You say that 'the market would say that prices should rise a bit' - but what the market actually says is 'it's now cheaper to manufacture cars elsewhere'

You might want to sell your soul to the devil but I don't. Sometimes you just have to make a break for it. But I don't think the deal for car manufactures will be affected because both sides will see the advantage not to mess up markets like this.

[L.A.]

You might want to sell your soul to the devil but I don't. Sometimes you just have to make a break for it. But I don't think the deal for car manufactures will be affected because both sides will see the advantage not to mess up markets like this.

Unless you want to follow the 'Venezuela model' it's the reality that we all have to live with. What's more, it was the Brexiteers who claimed to be the great proponents of the 'Free Market' - and the logic of free market means that you manufacture it the cheapest location.

It was those nasty old EU officials who wanted to try and keep these kinds of operation within Europe. (if you remember)

[Jack Knave]

Unless you want to follow the 'Venezuela model' it's the reality that we all have to live with. What's more, it was the Brexiteers who claimed to be the great proponents of the 'Free Market' - and the logic of free market means that you manufacture it the cheapest location.

It was those nasty old EU officials who wanted to try and keep these kinds of operation within Europe. (if you remember)

So it is a race to the bottom with the guy with the biggest gun wins - you think that is just and fair?

[L.A.]

So it is a race to the bottom with the guy with the biggest gun wins - you think that is just and fair?

So I'm assuming that you would opt for the Venezuela model then?

[jeremyp]

It hasn't happened

Neither has Brexit. But when Brexit happens and the tariffs get slapped on, Nissan will be gone. Our banking industry will be gone. Scotland will be gone.

[JP]

Neither has Brexit. But when Brexit happens and the tariffs get slapped on, Nissan will be gone. Our banking industry will be gone. Scotland will be gone.

How do you know what brexit will mean.
How do you know Nissan will go?

[L.A.]

How do you know what brexit will mean.
How do you know Nissan will go?

If they face significant increases in costs through tariffs and/or difficulties in moving goods and workers around - Nissan and a whole load of other manufactures will leave Britain, for the very good reason that it would no longer make economic sense to remain here.

[BashfulAnthony]

If they face significant increases in costs through tariffs and/or difficulties in moving goods and workers around - Nissan and a whole load of other manufactures will leave Britain, for the very good reason that it would no longer make economic sense to remain here.

L.A. , morning, or rather, afternoon.

There's always  that "if," when we talk about what these various companies will do.  I actually think the Government is quite aware of all this and will be working to suit our best interests.

[Nearly Sane]

L.A. , morning, or rather, afternoon.

There's always  that "if," when we talk about what these various companies will do.  I actually think the Government is quite aware of all this and will be working to suit our best interests.

You don't seem to think that of the govt pre Brexit, why do you think anything has changed?

[BashfulAnthony]

You don't seem to think that of the govt pre Brexit, why do you think anything has changed?

Morning, NS.
Something has changed, we have a different PM and a different regime, and critically it doesn't include the disgraced Cameron and Osborne.  I'm sure you are aware of that really.

[Nearly Sane]

Morning, NS.
Something has changed, we have a different PM and a different regime, and critically it doesn't include the disgraced Cameron and Osborne.  I'm sure you are aware of that really.

But the same party, who all expressed their loyalty and confidence to Cameron, so if they are to be trusted to be different, they were lying then, so why should I trust them?

[BashfulAnthony]

But the same party, who all expressed their loyalty and confidence to Cameron, so if they are to be trusted to be different, they were lying then, do why should I trust them?

We all know how politicians behave.  The difference now is that they have to follow Theresa May's policies, and I believe, though I'm not a Tory sympathiser, that she has more integrity than Cameron and will be a better leader of the country.

[Nearly Sane]

We all know how politicians behave.  The difference now is that they have to follow Theresa May's policies, and I believe, though I'm not a Tory sympathiser, that she has more integrity than Cameron and will be a better leader of the country.

and yet I still have people in govt who lied continually on both sides during the referendum, and who appear to have no agreement on a plan. Given the lying and lack of okan, why should I trust them?

[BashfulAnthony]

and yet I still have people in govt who lied continually on both sides during the referendum, and who appear to have no agreement on a plan. Given the lying and lack of okan, why should I trust them?

It may be for the wrong reason, but we trust them because if they don't get the job done, they lose theirs.

[Nearly Sane]

It may be for the wrong reason, but we trust them because if they don't get the job done, they lose theirs.

No, that's madness. You trust people on the basis of the evidence.  If they have lued and have no plan, there is reason not to trust them.

[BashfulAnthony]

No, that's madness. You trust people on the basis of the evidence.  If they have lued and have no plan, there is reason not to trust them.

Those who were Remainers had to follow the dictates of Cameron:  that is no longer so;  and I believe that Theresa May can do the job with more integrity.  If those Remainers left have doubts, they have an option, don't they?

[Nearly Sane]

Those who were Remainers had to follow the dictates of Cameron:  that is no longer so;  and I believe that Theresa May can do the job with more integrity.  If those Remainers left have doubts, they have an option, don't they?

What has this got to do with both sides lying and not having a plan?

[L.A.]

L.A. , morning, or rather, afternoon.

There's always  that "if," when we talk about what these various companies will do.  I actually think the Government is quite aware of all this and will be working to suit our best interests.

Of course, I agree. If we go for the 'soft' Brexit then we might get away with it - but there are a lot of 'hard Brexiteers' who will fight tooth and nail against any sane settlement.

[BashfulAnthony]

Of course, I agree. If we go for the 'soft' Brexit then we might get away with it - but there are a lot of 'hard Brexiteers' who will fight tooth and nail against any sane settlement.

I believe Theresa May will get it done the way she wants, and I think it will be, eventually, a good deal for UK.

[Nearly Sane]

I believe Theresa May will get it done the way she wants, and I think it will be, eventually, a good deal for UK.

So as well as trusting a govt of liars with no plan, you illustrate that you don't understand the UK constitution.

[BashfulAnthony]

So as well as trusting a govt of liars with no plan, you illustrate that you don't understand the UK constitution.

Oh dear! Desperation time, I think.  Tell me more about this unwritten Constitution.

[L.A.]

I believe Theresa May will get it done the way she wants, and I think it will be, eventually, a good deal for UK.

I certainly hope so but she will face a lot of opposition from all directions.

[Nearly Sane]

Oh dear! Desperation time, I think.  Tell me more about this unwritten Constitution.

well first of all it"s a common misconception that the constitution is unwritten as a whole. There are many written pieces of it made up of multiple pieces of legislation such as the Bill of Rights, the Settlement Act, The Acts of Union,and indeed the European Community Act which will need to be repealed at some point in the lead up to Brexit.

It's also a misconception to think that those parts of it not codified into legislation are some how non existent, as while they may be difficult to enforce in a court of law, would present extreme difficulties in not following. An example of this would be the Royal Prerogative, which while it now has a set of guidelines, is not part of legislation.

In addition there are of course a number of common law principles which while not part of legislation cover some parts of a constitution such as the case covering the rule that anything not prihibitrd specifucally is allowed.


Overall in this case, the idea that a Prime Minister has the necessary power to agree this sort of decision unilaterally, is negated by both the method of government control and feasibility given the primus inter pares approach we have.

[jeremyp]

We all know how politicians behave.  The difference now is that they have to follow Theresa May's policies, and I believe, though I'm not a Tory sympathiser, that she has more integrity than Cameron and will be a better leader of the country.

Theresa May was a Remainer and yet here she is leading a country into what she thinks is a worse future than staying in the EU.

That doesn't strike me as an example of integrity.