The Economy is in for a rough ride

[Hope]

This was mentioned as a possibility in the lead up to the Referendum, and clearly it is still uncertain -

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37743700

but it is - as the article says - the uncertainty that is moving organisations to consider such moves.  Even if the timetable for |Brexit had been laid out the day after the referendum, the uncertainty would still be there.

[JP]

Nissan to build new models in Sunderland

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37787890

UK economy grows 0.5% in three months after Brexit vote

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37786467

[jeremyp]

Nissan to build new models in Sunderland

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37787890

That is really good news, but it looks like they have been bribed by the government i.e. the government will compensate them for losses due to tariffs. That means, of course, that all car manufacturers based in this country will expect the same treatment, which could be problematic with regard to any negotiations with the EU.

UK economy grows 0.5% in three months after Brexit vote

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37786467

Not such good news. That is down 0.2% from the previous quarter, although, analysts thought it could be a lot worse.

[Sriram]

You think this is possible? A new brexit vote?

http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/28/news/tony-blair-brexit-new-vote/index.html

[Nearly Sane]

You think this is possible? A new brexit vote?

http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/28/news/tony-blair-brexit-new-vote/index.html

not if Tony leads the charge.

[wigginhall]

Blair is king Midas in reverse. 

[jeremyp]

not if Tony leads the charge.

There is precedent. A charge led by Michael Gove, Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage got us into this mess.

[Hope]

You think this is possible? A new brexit vote?

http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/28/news/tony-blair-brexit-new-vote/index.html

The problem with the 3 options Blair refers to is this.  A vote in Parliament doesn't necessarily reflect the view of the majority - look, for instance, at the disconnect between Labour MPs and the members of that party.  A General Election rarely, if ever, gives a definitive answer on a single issue.  That's why we have referenda.

The final option - a 2nd referendum would need to be far more effectively controlled.  A majority of 50%+1 wouldn't give a clear answer at all - either way.  It would have to be on the understanding of a 60/40 or even a 65/35 majority.

[Anchorman]

The problem with the 3 options Blair refers to is this.  A vote in Parliament doesn't necessarily reflect the view of the majority - look, for instance, at the disconnect between Labour MPs and the members of that party.  A General Election rarely, if ever, gives a definitive answer on a single issue.  That's why we have referenda.

The final option - a 2nd referendum would need to be far more effectively controlled.  A majority of 50%+1 wouldn't give a clear answer at all - either way.  It would have to be on the understanding of a 60/40 or even a 65/35 majority.
[/quote





Whoa - playing around with the result of a referendum did not go well for Labour in 1979....that was about the time grass roots labourites in Scotland began to doubt the leadership....and the rest is history (as is the Labour stranglehold of Scotland)

[Harrowby Hall]

  That's why we have referenda.

No it is not.

In the UK we don't have referenda. Where there have been referenda they have been for other - mainly - party management purposes, not for assessing popular opinion. Wilson used his EEC referendum do keep Tony Benn under control. Cameron used to PR referendum to show his coalition partners who was in charge. He used the EU referendum to keep his paleolithic wing under control - and they then clubbed him to political death.

We do not have referenda, we have representative government. Edmund Burke, over 200 years ago explained the role of the member of Parliament:

Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion.

[jeremyp]

The final option - a 2nd referendum would need to be far more effectively controlled.  A majority of 50%+1 wouldn't give a clear answer at all - either way.  It would have to be on the understanding of a 60/40 or even a 65/35 majority.

Why is everybody acting as though all the referendums we had in the past did give clear answers then?

[wigginhall]

Many stories about the Nissan deal are circulating, but it looks as if Nissan have been promised tariff free access to European markets.  It's unclear whether other companies will get this, and as Keir Starmer pointed out, Nissan now know more about this than MPs or voters!   Commercial secrecy is one thing, but this is becoming ridiculous.   Brexit means Brexit, but what that means is not for you to know. 

I guess, reading between the lines, May is worried about softening Brexit, and the reaction of the hard mob.

[JP]

A free trade deal between the EU and Canada, with 99% of tariffs removed and Canada has not had to accept the free movement of people. A model for the UK agreement perhaps?

[Aruntraveller]

A free trade deal between the EU and Canada, with 99% of tariffs removed and Canada has not had to accept the free movement of people. A model for the UK agreement perhaps?

Let's hope so. But it has taken a long time for Canada/EU to get to this agreement. And Canada has the advantage of not being a former member - I suspect different rules will apply if we ever get around to negotiating a deal, due to the internal pressures within the EU to not to be seen rewarding our isolationist stance.

[wigginhall]

Exactly.  Many journalists are saying that the EU will never give the UK free trade without free movement.   It makes it too attractive to leave.

[Nearly Sane]

Let's hope so. But it has taken a long time for Canada/EU to get to this agreement. And Canada has the advantage of not being a former member - I suspect different rules will apply if we ever get around to negotiating a deal, due to the internal pressures within the EU to not to be seen rewarding our isolationist stance.

8 years, and also an example of something that many people voted to avoid by voting to leave, see for example Jack Knave. But then Brexit means Brexit

[jeremyp]

A free trade deal between the EU and Canada, with 99% of tariffs removed and Canada has not had to accept the free movement of people. A model for the UK agreement perhaps?

It took seven years and was still nearly scuppered by a single province in Belgium. We won't get the same deal.

Plus, we'll have to start again with Canada once we leave the EU.