Brexit ground truth

[L.A.]

I visited some old friends over the weekend. Many years ago my friend was a co-founder of a hi-tech medical equipment company and is still a director; and he is in despair over Brexit. The problems they face are these:

The equipment need approval.
The Eu is a major part of their market and a single approval gave then access all member countries.
It seems virtually certain that companies based in Britain will not be able to do this in future.
Without a single EU approval the process would be much slower and costly

I suggested that they might move the company to another EU state, Ireland for example, but many staff would not want to make the move and the team would break-up, in fact many key staff have already signalled that they are thinking of leaving - Canada seems to be a favourite destination. And my friend sees this kind of thing happening in a great many companies unless we have full access to the single market.

The bottom line is that unless Theresa May can produce some near miraculous solutions PDQ Britain is going to lose a lot of hi tech companies (with all the jobs and wealth that they create)

[Harrowby Hall]

Is your friend prepared to go public with his concerns?

A start might be to write to the MP of the constituency where the firm is situated pointing out the potential damage to the well-being of the constituency. If the MP's response is less than adequate then publish the correspondence in the local paper.

[Hope]

L.A., I think that HH's post sums the whole thing up well.  However, somehow we need to get the underlying issue that this exemplifies over to the public in a way that doesn't create fear but encourages them to think.  I always felt that the true 'Project Fear' were the Brexiteers.

[L.A.]

Is your friend prepared to go public with his concerns?

A start might be to write to the MP of the constituency where the firm is situated pointing out the potential damage to the well-being of the constituency. If the MP's response is less than adequate then publish the correspondence in the local paper.

I honestly don't know HH, I might suggest it, but I have heard similar things from industrialists on Radio 4, so it's no secret - if we lose the single market a lot of UK companies will shut up shop.

[L.A.]

L.A., I think that HH's post sums the whole thing up well.  However, somehow we need to get the underlying issue that this exemplifies over to the public in a way that doesn't create fear but encourages them to think.  I always felt that the true 'Project Fear' were the Brexiteers.

I think it's probably a major short-coming in our educational system that the basic principles of commerce aren't part of the National Curriculum, with a result that the majority of our population just don't have a clue how business works.

[Harrowby Hall]

I don't think that the prime minister's reaction to the situation we find ourselves in is particularly well thought out. She says "Brexit is Brexit" (whatever that means) and appears to think that she now has a mandate to leave the EU and so must seek the best outcome. I believe she has already met some opposition to this approach from her cabinet.

Does she really want to go down in history as the PM who reduced the UK (or what may be left of it) to the status of a south American failed state?

My judgement is that the more MPs learn about the consequences of leaving the EU to their constituencies, the more likely a considered rethink may take place.

Were we to leave the EU, the most likely game in town would be a special version of TTIP. By special version I mean firstly more advantageous to US corporations and secondly offered on a "take it or leave it" basis. That would see the destruction of the NHS. A wonderful epitaph to put on anyone's tombstone.

[L.A.]

Yes, the  "Brexit is Brexit"  comment is a totally meaningless soundbyte, but to be fair, it's an impossible task she faces - you can't limit EU migration without damaging the economy.

[jeremyp]

You can't limit EU migration without damaging the economy.

Well don't do it then. We need to either have a Norway type deal or find some way of invalidating the referendum vote.

[L.A.]

Well don't do it then. We need to either have a Norway type deal or find some way of invalidating the referendum vote.

That is the obvious way out, but it would infuriate the Brexteers and we wouldn't actually be any better off than we were pre-Brexit.

[Bubbles]

That is the obvious way out, but it would infuriate the Brexteers and we wouldn't actually be any better off than we were pre-Brexit.

Not just brexiteers

It would undermine the whole concept of democracy.

Theresa May knows this, so treads carefully.

"Brexit means Brexit" as meaningless as it is, shows acknowledgement of this.

She is saying that for a reason.

[L.A.]

Not just brexiteers

It would undermine the whole concept of democracy.

Theresa May knows this, so treads carefully.

"Brexit means Brexit" as meaningless as it is, shows acknowledgement of this.

She is saying that for a reason.

Before they took the trouble to find out what they were talking about, many Brexiteers proudly quoted  Norway as a shining example of what Brexit might achieve for us.

Norway, of course has free movement of labour with the EU and pays a fee, but such a deal would probably be our least-bad option given our present position - and as we would not be members of the EU it would certainly qualify as Brexit.

[jeremyp]

Not just brexiteers

It would undermine the whole concept of democracy.

Not necessarily.

As a hypothetical, consider a general election in which one party stands on the platform of canceling any attempt at Brexit and that party winning.

Or consider a second referendum that reverses the vote.

[Hope]

What do folk think about the suggestion by some MPs that any Brexit agreement should be put before the electorate in yet another referendum (or single-issue General Election)?

[Aruntraveller]

What do folk think about the suggestion by some MPs that any Brexit agreement should be put before the electorate in yet another referendum (or single-issue General Election)?

Much though I would like that to be the case, I think it is becoming increasingly unlikely as the extent of Ms May's lukewarm commitment to 'remain' becomes more and more clear - this allied to her determination to push through without any constitutional ratification of any sort on this subject means we are out.

According to latest reports we are heading for a hard Brexit with a commitment to a reduction in immigration, and therefore with the negative consequences for the economy.

I know some will be cheering, but me, I think it is the gravest mistake the UK has made in my lifetime.

[L.A.]

What do folk think about the suggestion by some MPs that any Brexit agreement should be put before the electorate in yet another referendum (or single-issue General Election)?

It sounds like a good idea but I can't see it happening. The present government have declared that there will be no second referendum and are certainly not risk losing an early election, and Labour are too disorganised to do anything.

The only way that it could happen would be if Labour (miraculously) became the Sensible Party and formed some kind of loose alliance with the LibDems and some of the Remain Conservatives such that they could have a majority. Even without an actual vote, that would put a lot of pressure on May.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Two factors in play, the political cycle is proving very resilient.
We are after all at the point in the cycle where the opposition will 'never be returned to Government' (Half way through).

It will be exacerbated by southern Brexit voters and underclass brexit voters bowled over by the power they seem to have wielded and the power to fuck lives up. Economic chaos as artistic self expression......................Gerroverit!!!!

[L.A.]

Much though I would like that to be the case, I think it is becoming increasingly unlikely as the extent of Ms May's lukewarm commitment to 'remain' becomes more and more clear - this allied to her determination to push through without any constitutional ratification of any sort on this subject means we are out.

According to latest reports we are heading for a hard Brexit with a commitment to a reduction in immigration, and therefore with the negative consequences for the economy.

I know some will be cheering, but me, I think it is the gravest mistake the UK has made in my lifetime.

I think that it might well turn into negative net migration as Britains with any marketable skills or talents emigrate for a better life overseas.

If I was 40 years younger I would be examining my options very carefully right now.

[Hope]

I think that it might well turn into negative net migration as Britains with any marketable skills or talents emigrate for a better life overseas.

If I was 40 years younger I would be examining my options very carefully right now.

I'd have thought we might see neutral net migration, with all the current ex-pat Brits living in mainland Europe feeelin that they can't continue living there.

[Hope]

Much though I would like that to be the case, I think it is becoming increasingly unlikely as the extent of Ms May's lukewarm commitment to 'remain' becomes more and more clear - this allied to her determination to push through without any constitutional ratification of any sort on this subject means we are out.

From what I understand, she is very keen on 'constitutional ratification', Trent.  Its called the Houses of Parliament.  Not only do they have to pass a law triggering Article 50, but if I understand TM's statements correctly, there will be additional HoP debates and legislation before we can be deemed to have left the EU.

According to latest reports we are heading for a hard Brexit with a commitment to a reduction in immigration, and therefore with the negative consequences for the economy.

I know some will be cheering, but me, I think it is the gravest mistake the UK has made in my lifetime.

I would agree, but I have always regarded the Vote Leave campaign as the real 'Project Fear'.  Contrary to the recent findings of the Electoral Reform Society, my experience is that the Remain camp gave solid reasons to stay, albeit untested by any real previous experience, while the Leave camp seemed more interested in creating fear based on unevidences and often spurious arguments.  Labour's lukewarm attempts to get their core supporters to vote remain didn't help matters.

[Harrowby Hall]

I'd have thought we might see neutral net migration, with all the current ex-pat Brits living in mainland Europe feeelin that they can't continue living there.

Many of the ones that I know in France are busy logging on to Ancestry to see if they can qualify for Irish citizenship. I know of one person applying for French nationality who is overwhelmed (and overawed) at the quantity of the bureaucracy.

I know of no-one actively preparing to move back.

[Harrowby Hall]

According to latest reports we are heading for a hard Brexit with a commitment to a reduction in immigration, and therefore with the negative consequences for the economy.

My guess is that we being presented by a number of statements by Mre May designed to present her as set on the Brexit course while inside her brain she is clueless. I suspect that she will find more and obstacles blocking the way to Brexit and that the time will come when she realises that exit is an unattainable objective without real damage. I doubt she wants to see school history texts in 30 years time treating her in the way she knows Teflon Dave will be treated.

As Harold Macmillan replied when asked what were the most difficult things he had to deal with: "Events, dear boy, events."

[L.A.]

Many of the ones that I know in France are busy logging on to Ancestry to see if they can qualify for Irish citizenship. I know of one person applying for French nationality who is overwhelmed (and overawed) at the quantity of the bureaucracy.

I know of no-one actively preparing to move back.

My wife had an Irish mother and we are currently exploring what benefits that might give us. Unfortunately my own Irish connection is a great-grandmother, a generation too far. 

[L.A.]

My guess is that we being presented by a number of statements by Mre May designed to present her as set on the Brexit course while inside her brain she is clueless. I suspect that she will find more and obstacles blocking the way to Brexit and that the time will come when she realises that exit is an unattainable objective without real damage. I doubt she wants to see school history texts in 30 years time treating her in the way she knows Teflon Dave will be treated.

As Harold Macmillan replied when asked what were the most difficult things he had to deal with: "Events, dear boy, events."

I don't see Theresa May as a 'bad' person, but she is in a totally impossible position - nothing she does can be right. I just hope that manages the 'damage limitation' reasonably competently.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

One things for sure no Brexiteer has the bottle to administer our exit.
Neither will any of them have the bottle to not hang on to their one phyrric victory for years to come.

I can here the cogs working now '' No one will forget June the 23rd''
No it's just everyday since they won't want to think about.

It will be like 1966 all over again.

Gerroverit!!!

[jeremyp]

I suspect that she will find more and obstacles blocking the way to Brexit and that the time will come when she realises that exit is an unattainable objective without real damage.

I think she's probably already well aware that exit is an unattainable objective without real damage. Her hands are tied though. We had the vote and it would be political suicide to ignore it without an extraordinarily good reason.