Brexit ground truth

[BeRational]

It may, it may not.  there is also a very large market available to us in the rest of the world.  The whole point od Brexit was to rid us of the constraints of the failing EU.

But most of our current trade is with Europe.

We need to trade favourably there.

If our deal is bad it will not be good for us.

I think something along the lines of the Norway deal.

[BashfulAnthony]

But most of our current trade is with Europe.

We need to trade favourably there.

If our deal is bad it will not be good for us.

I think something along the lines of the Norway deal.

It needs to be appreciated that the our trade in the EU is heavily biased in favour of the EU countries, and that includes Germany.  Countries such as Australia and New Zealand have already stated their desire to trade with us; and make no mistake, despite Obama's silly intervention in the Referendum campaign, the US will be keen to do deals with us, because it is to their advantage, not just ours.l 

[BeRational]

It needs to be appreciated that the our trade in the EU is heavily biased in favour of the EU countries, and that includes Germany.  Countries such as Australia and New Zealand have already stated their desire to trade with us; and make no mistake, despite Obama's silly intervention in the Referendum campaign, the US will be keen to do deals with us, because it is to their advantage, not just ours.l

You hope!

We do not have a deal so we cannot say how our trading with Europe will go.

The Norway deal seems like the best we could hope for, and that still means paying, and some free movement.

We could end up just losing our vote whilst paying just as much as before.

[jeremyp]

It needs to be appreciated that the our trade in the EU is heavily biased in favour of the EU countries, and that includes Germany.  Countries such as Australia and New Zealand have already stated their desire to trade with us; and make no mistake, despite Obama's silly intervention in the Referendum campaign, the US will be keen to do deals with us, because it is to their advantage, not just ours.l

It's not about trade, it is about trade deals. We already trade with the USA but each side places tariffs on the goods and services of the other that acts to stifle the full potential. After Brexit, we will continue to trade with Europe, but unless we do a deal, each side will place tariffs on the other's goods. This will reduce the amount of trade we have with the EU and also provide an incentive for manufacturers in the UK to move to the EU, taking their jobs and supplier contracts with them.

On average, it takes about seven years to negotiate a bilateral trade deal. We don't have seven years. People will start losing their jobs as soon as we leave the EU.

[BashfulAnthony]

It's not about trade, it is about trade deals. We already trade with the USA but each side places tariffs on the goods and services of the other that acts to stifle the full potential. After Brexit, we will continue to trade with Europe, but unless we do a deal, each side will place tariffs on the other's goods. This will reduce the amount of trade we have with the EU and also provide an incentive for manufacturers in the UK to move to the EU, taking their jobs and supplier contracts with them.

On average, it takes about seven years to negotiate a bilateral trade deal. We don't have seven years. People will start losing their jobs as soon as we leave the EU.

Whatever deals are done are just as vital to our competitors, in most cases more so, as to us.  It is to everyone's advantage to make deals as quickly and as satisfactorily as possible.

[wigginhall]

I don't see how anyone can predict how future trade deals will pan out.  If we are still in the single market, then we still have tariff-free trade with the EU.    If we are not, then it is WTO trade, with various tariffs.  Does anyone actually know how that might work?  I doubt it.   Nobody had a clue before the referendum, and nobody has a clue now, or if they have, they are keeping it very quiet. 

[BashfulAnthony]

I don't see how anyone can predict how future trade deals will pan out.  If we are still in the single market, then we still have tariff-free trade with the EU.    If we are not, then it is WTO trade, with various tariffs.  Does anyone actually know how that might work?  I doubt it.   Nobody had a clue before the referendum, and nobody has a clue now, or if they have, they are keeping it very quiet.

We don't know how things will work out, which is why the Remainers' scare-mongering was so pernicious.  All their claims were no more than wild supposition.  Such a pity so many people still believe Osborn's deceitful ramblings.

[wigginhall]

We don't know how things will work out, which is why the Remainers' scare-mongering was so pernicious.  All their claims were no more than wild supposition.  Such a pity so many people still believe Osborn's deceitful ramblings.

And, believe it or not, some people believed the Brexit porkies.   For example, money to the NHS, ruled out by Mrs May, a point-based immigration scheme, ruled out by Mrs May, Turkey to join the EU, very unlikely. 

I would think that the govt is desperate to stay in the single market, but they can't accept free movement.  Possibly, they are aiming for a bespoke deal, but whether other countries will accept that, who knows. 

[floo]

The leading BREXIT spokespeople lied through their teeth about how well off the UK would be if it left the EU. The racist UKIP and their nasty leader Farage preyed on those prejudiced against migrants, giving the impression leaving would cut off their entry, which is of course garbage. With our exit the French are more likely to turn a blind eye where those migrants wising to come to our shores are concerned.

[jeremyp]

Whatever deals are done are just as vital to our competitors, in most cases more so, as to us.

The trade deal we do with the EU is vastly more important to us than it is to them. The single market is five times the size of our economy. In the event that we fail todo a deal, BMW (for example) has unrestrained access to the whole of the EU, Jaguar does not.

It is to everyone's advantage to make deals as quickly and as satisfactorily as possible.

Yes it is, but even with that, it still takes an average of seven years to conclude a bilateral trade deal.

[jeremyp]

Does anyone actually know how that might work?  I doubt it.   Nobody had a clue before the referendum, and nobody has a clue now, or if they have, they are keeping it very quiet.

Yes they do. That's why most economists were advising against leaving the EU.

[floo]

I heard on the Today Programme this morning Australia's priority are trade deals with the EU not the UK.

[wigginhall]

Somebody made me laugh by comparing the Brexit ballot to a Schrödinger-type wave function, which exists in various virtual states.   In other words, it meant all things to all men - keep the foreigners out, sovereignty, take our country back, money for the NHS, and so on.   

However, Mrs May is gradually collapsing the wave function - money for the NHS?  No.   Points based immigration scheme - forget it.   Paying money to the EU - well, we might.

Apologies for the hopeless miscomprehension of wave functions.

The obvious solution, if the Japanese leave (what have they ever done for us?),  is to rent a large empty factory, and start building the Austin Allegro again!  Glorious!