Sour Grapes All Round!

[BashfulAnthony]

Osborne's dire predictions haven't gone away. It's a bit like a man falling off a cliff concluding that the the dangers are much over-rated.

Big Business employs millions, indirectly supports most small businesses and pays vast amounts of tax. We damage Big Business at our peril.

Osborne was making predictions as far ahead as the latter part of the next decade; how absurd!  In his last shambles budget his "predictions"  were collapsing within a week!!  As to Big Business:  many of them are working off the back of migrant workers to whom they often don't even pay the minimum wage.  Not to mention the billions they collectively rip us all off with their tax arrangements.  It is small business which is the back-bone of our economy.

[L.A.]

No, an incompetent, self-serving man who screwed up just about everything he touched. Don't forget Libya, and the consequences of that ill-planned intervention: how many lives have been lost because of that?  What a legacy:  Brexit catastrophe, Libya,  austerity, and the cuts to welfare for those with the least.  And where is he now?  Probably planning his own lucrative future.  He's a disgrace, in every sense.

All that is a matter of opinion, the relevant facts are that he screwed-up and is no longer on the scene.

[Gonnagle]

Dear Bashers,

Mr Cameron!! That's old Lapsed hero you are dissing, he was educated at Eton and Oxford, which means ( according to old Lapsed ) he always plays with a straight  bat don'tcherknow

Anyway, on a more serious subject, this brexit nonsense has brought out some serious facts that I was totally unaware of.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37493956

Billionaires being given EU subsidies, I wonder if her Majesty and the Duke of Westminster are thinking of relocating to mainland Europe.

Gonnagle.

[BashfulAnthony]

Dear Bashers,

Mr Cameron!! That's old Lapsed hero you are dissing, he was educated at Eton and Oxford, which means ( according to old Lapsed ) he always plays with a straight  bat don'tcherknow

Anyway, on a more serious subject, this brexit nonsense has brought out some serious facts that I was totally unaware of.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37493956

Billionaires being given EU subsidies, I wonder if her Majesty and the Duke of Westminster are thinking of relocating to mainland Europe.

Gonnagle.

Hi Gonners,

I dare say that, in the fullness of time, there will be other examples of how his old Etonian chums and the like, will have "benefitted."  And not to forget the huge tax hand-out the rich got.  Don't you just love the guy -  if you're rich or politically totally biased!!  He was a Thatcherite and it showed in the cavalier manner he treated the less fortunate in society.  I reckon he went home at night and morphed into the Iron Lady!

[BashfulAnthony]

All that is a matter of opinion, the relevant facts are that he screwed-up and is no longer on the scene.

How can you say that the catastrophic intervention in Libya was a matter of opinion.   It was a first-class, horrific blunder, and we will be facing the consequences for years,  not to mention the poor souls who are suffering and dying because of it.  As with Brexit, he failed to plan for any outcome.  A truly disgraceful performance..

[Gonnagle]

Dear Bashers,

If I remember correctly, for all her failings, Maggie would never have let the likes of Farage or the EU get the better of her.

Gonnagle.

[BashfulAnthony]

Dear Bashers,

If I remember correctly, for all her failings, Maggie would never have let the likes of Farage or the EU get the better of her.

Gonnagle.

As you will have guessed, I'm no fan of Maggie, but I will say that with her you got what you saw and she was, for the most part, up front.  With Cameron it has been duplicity.

[L.A.]

Osborne was making predictions as far ahead as the latter part of the next decade; how absurd!  In his last shambles budget his "predictions"  were collapsing within a week!! 

Osborne's predictions were based on financial models - sophisticated computers simulations of the economy. There are margins of error and they can be wrong, but they are perfectly legitimate and  you can't ignore them. What is more, some of those forecasts will probably happen.

As to big business:  many of them are working off the back of migrant workers to whom they often don't even pay the minimum wage.  Not to mention the billions they collectively rip us all off with their tax arrangements.  It is small business which is the back-bone of our economy.

That is unfair B.A. The vast majority of companies big and small pay their taxes. If a government choose to allow special tax concessions to a company in order to encourage investment in this country (and the jobs that go with it),you can hardly blame the company.

Migrants who take low-pay jobs tend to be filling vacancies that UK workers are unable or are unwilling to do, but in doing so help boost the economy and create new jobs. A typical example would be the migrant workers who pick fruit and veg. Without them the whole industry would die.

[L.A.]

How can you say that the catastrophic intervention in Libya was a matter of opinion.   It was a first-class, horrific blunder, and we will be facing the consequences for years,  not to mention the poor souls who are suffering and dying because of it.  As with Brexit, he failed to plan for any outcome.  A truly disgraceful performance..

As many commentators have pointed out, there are dangers in intervening and dangers in not intervening, just look at Syria! - maybe Cameron got it right maybe he got it wrong, but he has gone so it's a bit irrelevant.

[BashfulAnthony]

As many commentators have pointed out, there are dangers in intervening and dangers in not intervening, just look at Syria! - maybe Cameron got it right maybe he got it wrong, but he has gone so it's a bit irrelevant.

It's not irrelevant to the poor so-and-sos left to face the music.

[BashfulAnthony]

Osborne's predictions were based on financial models - sophisticated computers simulations of the economy. There are margins of error and they can be wrong, but they are perfectly legitimate and  you can't ignore them. What is more, some of those forecasts will probably happen.

That is unfair B.A. The vast majority of companies big and small pay their taxes. If a government choose to allow special tax concessions to a company in order to encourage investment in this country (and the jobs that go with it),you can hardly blame the company.

Migrants who take low-pay jobs tend to be filling vacancies that UK workers are unable or are unwilling to do, but in doing so help boost the economy and create new jobs. A typical example would be the migrant workers who pick fruit and veg. Without them the whole industry would die.

It matters not what models Osborne and the Treasury were using.  You cannot predict what the economic situation will be in 15 years time. Osborne was "predicting" the economic consequences from day 1 of Brexit, with his decision to have an emergency budget, and he has been proved wrong - a scenario he was well used to!  And then the so-called predictions up to the end of the 20's.  Joseph Stiglitz  said the predictions were not worth the paper they were written on,  and he is an independent observer, with no axe to grind! 

And surely you don't believe that companies all pay up their taxes without demur!  TENS OF BILLIONS of ｣'s are lost to the economy through big companies failing to pay their dues, one way or another, every year!

[L.A.]

It's not irrelevant to the poor so-and-sos left to face the music.

It might be interesting to run a 'What if' thread to explore all the possible consequences of alternative courses of action in these kinds of situation. It would seem likely (with hindsight) that either a lot more or a lot less intervention might have resulted in a less bloody outcome - but who knows? . . . and what about Syria? should we have intervened there?

There are no simple solutions.

[L.A.]

It matters not what models Osborne and the Treasury were using.  You cannot predict what the economic situation will be in 15 years time. Osborne was "predicting" the economic consequences from day 1 of Brexit, with his decision to have an emergency budget, and he has been proved wrong - a scenario he was well used to!  And then the so-called predictions up to the end of the 20's.  Joseph Stiglitz  said the predictions were not worth the paper they were written on,  and he is an independent observer, with no axe to grind! 

And surely you don't believe that companies all pay up their taxes without demur!  TENS OF BILLIONS of ｣'s are lost to the economy through big companies failing to pay their dues, one way or another, every year!

In many ways economic models are like the meteorological models used for weather forecasts. It's true that both are imperfect and are likely to be less accurate the further ahead you look but a major event such as Brexit might be likened to Global warming - you can't be certain exactly what effect it will have on the daily forecast years ahead, but you can be pretty certain that on average it's going to be hotter.

[BashfulAnthony]

In many ways economic models are like the meteorological models used for weather forecasts. It's true that both are imperfect and are likely to be less accurate the further ahead you look but a major event such as Brexit might be likened to Global warming - you can't be certain exactly what effect it will have on the daily forecast years ahead, but you can be pretty certain that on average it's going to be hotter.

You can't assume anything about global warming;  and even less so, monumentally less so, about Brexit, or any economic "prediction."

[L.A.]

You can't assume anything about global warming;  and even less so, monumentally less so, about Brexit, or any economic "prediction."

The meteorologists would certainly point to the steadily upward curve in world temperature and claim that it verifies their model. I'm sure that the creators of economic models also try to factor in long term effects.

Only time will tell us how good they are.

[Hope]

You can't assume anything about global warming;  ... 

Sadly, you don't have to, BA; the evidence is already out there.

[BashfulAnthony]

Sadly, you don't have to, BA; the evidence is already out there.

Sure, but can anybody be certain what the situation will be in another 20 or 30 years, either for better or worse.  In terms of economics that uncertainty is multiplied many, many more times, which was the point I was making.

[jeremyp]

The EU didn't give Cameron the tools to do the job. They are the ones at fault here. That was plain stupid of them!

Actually the 52% of the voters who voted for Brexit are the ones at fault. The lies of the Brexit campaign were adequately pointed out but they decided to vote for yesterday anyway for various spurious reasons.

[L.A.]

Actually the 52% of the voters who voted for Brexit are the ones at fault. The lies of the Brexit campaign were adequately pointed out but they decided to vote for yesterday anyway for various spurious reasons.

I'm not sure that is entirely fair.

My wife used to work for the NHS and meets socially with her former colleagues fairly regularly. She was shocked to discover (just before the referendum) that they all intended to vote Leave because they expected the NHS to get a large proportion of that ｣350 million per week!

If  a lie of such magnitude was employed in commercial advertising the Advertising Standards people would take the company to the cleaners, but in this case, all they could do was fine them a couple of grand for the bus ad - and that was after the damage was done!

My guess is that a very large number of voters were misled by such lies.

[BashfulAnthony]

It might be interesting to run a 'What if' thread to explore all the possible consequences of alternative courses of action in these kinds of situation. It would seem likely (with hindsight) that either a lot more or a lot less intervention might have resulted in a less bloody outcome - but who knows? . . . and what about Syria? should we have intervened there?

There are no simple solutions.

We intervened with a valid reason, in order to check both Daesh and the abominable Assad.  But, as ever with Cameron, there was no long-term plan, and the situation has steadily deteriorated to the present chaos and slaughter.  We, and our allies to be fair, totally failed to recognise the Russian intentions, and Putin has been a step ahead of us all along.

[L.A.]

We intervened with a valid reason, in order to check both Daesh and the abominable Assad.  But, as ever with Cameron, there was no long-term plan, and the situation has steadily deteriorated to the present chaos and slaughter.  We, and our allies to be fair, totally failed to recognise the Russian intentions, and Putin has been a step ahead of us all along.

As I said, there are no easy answers.

[Sriram]

Something relevant...

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/30/europe/brexit-news-100-days/index.html

*************

The Britain that Samuele Marcora fell in love with still exists: He can ride his motorbike along winding mountain roads and past unspoilt sandy beaches, laugh at stand-up comedy nights, enjoy live music at rock gigs, or meet his PhD students for coffee.

As long as he doesn't open his mouth.

Marcora doesn't even have to talk in his mother tongue to spark a reaction: In his adopted hometown of Chatham in Kent, southeast of London, just speaking English with an Italian accent can be enough to provoke a reaction.

This is post-Brexit referendum Britain. And it's a place Marcora, who has lived and worked in the UK for 18 years, barely recognizes.

That decision has left many of the 3.2 million EU citizens living in the UK in limbo as Britain decides how it will Brexit. Will they be allowed to stay? And do they want to live in a country that voted to leave?

"Over the past two years, the atmosphere in the UK has changed towards EU migrants. I don't feel welcome here [any more] ... [It was] such a tolerant and open society, and we have enjoyed being part of it, but now it feels different."

She decided to take pre-emptive action: "I am sad to leave friends, but at the same time, I don't want to sit here for two years and wait."

Just weeks after the Brexit vote, she was offered a new teaching job back in Germany.

*************

[Nearly Sane]

 One of the things that might help here would be if the PM came out and said all current immigrants from the EU are able to stay - but, no she wants hostages

[L.A.]

One of the things that might help here would be if the PM came out and said all current immigrants from the EU are able to stay - but, no she wants hostages

Yes, there is just so much shit heading for that fan. The motor industry are just starting to become vocal:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/30/nissan-hard-brexit-compensation-new-uk-investment-tariffs

[Brownie]

Sririam, I feel sorry for the person you quoted and, yes, the attitude is terrible but you don't know Chatham.  You probably think of Kent, the Garden of England:  Chatham is not that, it is a really rough area and what this person has experienced does not surprise me one bit.