#295
Hoyle once calculated the probability of random amino acids coming together to form a living cell as ten to the power of eighty. To put this in perspective, the number of atomic particles in the known universe is in the order of ten to the power sixty. You may not agree with conditions Hoyle used for this calculation, but it can be used to illustrate just how improbable some things can be.
Very nice, but Hoyle's approach isn't accepted by evolutionary biologists primarily since it assumes complexity in a single step (hence the tornado in a junkyard assembling a functioning aeroplane analogy) - since Hoyle is often cited by creationist clowns I'd have though this would indicate that he got this argument wrong.
Assuming complexity in smaller steps (Richard Dawkins
Climbing Mount Improbable) rather than a single step makes the problem worse, in my opinion.
If the success for a
single step can be analogous to me throwing ten coins in the air and working out the probability that all of them come down on heads, then the probability is 1/2^10, or 1/1024.
If the success for smaller steps (ten for the analogy above) is still ten heads (this time, in a row), then guess what? The probability is still 1/2^10 or 1/1024!!
Furthermore, with the
smaller steps approach, why should any one path be favoured more than the other, if it takes many steps to get there? The destination is not known in advance.
I suppose the irony of the following will not be seen by the likes of Dawkins, et al:
Dawkins reminds us that natural selection produces such creatures through a series of incremental steps that "smear out" their improbability over long periods of time. To reinforce this point, he tells us how he constructed a computer program that, with only a few rules for guidance, could "learn" to construct webs remarkably similar to those built by real spiders.
Source:
http://www.slate.com/articles/arts/books/1996/09/the_mystery_of_life.htmlyet he won't see DNA, the blueprint for living organisms as an argument for a designer/creator!