NS,
because it could be a range. Again got any figures?
A range requires more than one figure for its upper and lower boundaries, so it can’t be “a” figure.
It’ll be otiose to go around this again though as the more substantive issue is whether it’s necessary to have numbers of any kind reasonably to call “unlikely” a supernatural causal claim for an observed phenomenon.
I’m still not sure that it is. As I understand it, those who assert the supernatural think they’ve used their (naturalistic) reasoning to reach that conclusion, and moreover that if only the rest of us could grasp their thinking we’d agree with them. They don’t so far as I’m aware claim to have magic antennae or some such that enable them to discern these supposed supernatural entities in ways we can’t.
That is, to make their “argument” they play on naturalism’s turf – “if only you could reason it my way, you’d reach the same conclusions that I have”. As that’s where they are, it seems to me reasonable to note that none of that coheres with the lived experience, and nor for that matter does it cohere with any test we might like to set up (“testing” being a naturalistic concept in any case).
If your thinking here is that conjectures about the supernatural are just white noise and so are not probability apt I have sympathy for that, but when some insert those conjectures into the naturalistic world then I’m content to respond with, “but the naturalistic world I appear to inhabit tells me that, within its own paradigm, your claim is unlikely to be true”.